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Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Assessment of Jamaica’s Climate Change Mitigation Potential and Implications for its Updated NDC - Sectoral Modelling and Analysis Assessment of Jamaica’s Climate Change Mitigation Potential and Implications for its Updated NDC - Sectoral Modelling and Analysis JUNE 2020 3 Assessment of Jamaica’s Climate Change Mitigation Potential and Implications for its Updated NDC - Sectoral Modelling and Analysis © 2020 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank 1818 H Street NW Washington DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000 Internet: www.worldbank.org This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank with external contributions. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of The World Bank, its Board of Executive Directors, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or currency of the data included in this work and does not assume responsibility for any errors, omissions, or discrepancies in the information, or liability with respect to the use of or failure to use the information, methods, processes, or conclusions set forth. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. Nothing herein shall constitute, or be construed, or be considered to be a limitation upon or waiver of the privileges and immunities of The World Bank, all of which are specifically reserved. Rights and Permissions The material in this work is subject to copyright. Because The World Bank encourages dissemination of its knowledge, this work may be reproduced, in whole or in part, for noncommercial purposes as long as full attribution to this work is given. Any queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to World Bank Publications, The World Bank Group, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; fax: 202-522-2625; e-mail: [email protected]. Cover design: Camille Robinson 4 Assessment of Jamaica’s Climate Change Mitigation Potential and Implications for its Updated NDC - Sectoral Modelling and Analysis ACKNOWLEDGMENTS: This Report was prepared by a team of experts from the World Bank and Vivid Economics, with significant contribution from the Ministry of Economic Growth and Job Creation of Jamaica. The Ministry of Economic Growth and Job Creation core team was led by UnaMay Gordon and included Omar Alcock, Le-Anne Roper and Katherine Blackman. The Vivid Economics team was led by John Ward, and also included Benjamin Rizzo and Josh Cowley. Maja Murisic (World Bank) provided inputs and managed the technical assistance project under which this report was prepared. The team wishes to sincerely thank the staff and experts from the various ministries, departments and agencies of the Government of Jamaica who shared their practical insights through meetings, interviews and review of this Report. 5 Assessment of Jamaica’s Climate Change Mitigation Potential and Implications for its Updated NDC - Sectoral Modelling and Analysis Contents Executive Summary ..................................................................................................................................8 Glossary ................................................................................................................................................. 11 1 Introduction ........................................................................................................................................... 13 2 Energy sector ......................................................................................................................................... 15 3 Land-use change & forestry (LUCF) ....................................................................................................... 30 4 Waste sector ......................................................................................................................................... 40 5 Agriculture sector .................................................................................................................................. 45 6 References ............................................................................................................................................. 51 7 Annex: Energy model technical description .......................................................................................... 56 8 Annex: Energy sector commitments...................................................................................................... 76 9 Annex: LUCF sector - additional analysis and comparisons with the TNC ............................................. 81 List of tables Table 1 Thirteen energy commitments were identified and modelled in this report ........................................ 16 Table 2 Electricity generation from renewable sources sees significant growth by 2030 (TWh) ....................... 23 Table 3 Jamaica has introduced several policies and actions in the waste sector ............................................. 40 Table 4 Jamaica has introduced several policies and strategies in the agriculture sector ................................. 46 Table 5 Main socioeconomic variables updated in energy model ..................................................................... 58 Table 6 Key economic variables updated in the energy model .......................................................................... 59 Table 7 Main industry variables updated in the energy model .......................................................................... 60 Table 8 Main transport variables updated in the energy model ........................................................................ 60 Table 9 Main updates to commerce and services data ...................................................................................... 61 Table 10 Main updates to residential sector data ................................................................................................ 62 Table 11 Main updates to energy fuel consumption data ................................................................................... 63 Table 12 Main updates to electricity consumption data ...................................................................................... 63 Table 13 Main updates to electricity production, transformation and distribution data ..................................... 64 Table 14 Main updates to raw resources price data ............................................................................................ 65 Table 15 Modelling parameters for Net Billing Mitigation Action ........................................................................ 66 Table 16 Modelling parameters for reduction in T&D losses ............................................................................... 67 Table 17 Modelling parameters for switch to LNG in Alpart refinery .................................................................. 67 Table 18 Modelling parameters for shift to T8 lighting ........................................................................................ 68 Table 19 Modelling parameters for shift to smart LED street lighting ................................................................. 69 Table 20 Modelling parameters for LNG buses .................................................................................................... 70 Table 21 Modelling parameters for B5 blending .................................................................................................. 70 Table 22 Modelling parameters for implementation of CHP in alumina refineries .............................................. 71 Table 23 Modelling parameters for reduction in water loss in Kingston.............................................................. 72 Table 24 Modelling parameters for energy efficiency within EMEP .................................................................... 73 6 Assessment of Jamaica’s Climate Change Mitigation Potential and Implications for its Updated NDC - Sectoral Modelling and Analysis Table 25 Modelling parameters for the KMA Urban Traffic Management System .............................................. 73 Table 26 Modelling parameters for the EECP ...................................................................................................... 74 Table 27 Modelling parameters for modelling the water NAMA ......................................................................... 74 List of figures Figure 1 In 2030, unconditional commitments in the energy and land-use sector could reduce emissions by 25.4%, and conditional commitments by 28.5% ......................................................................................9 Figure 2 Jamaica’s original NDC pledges a 7.8% unconditional reduction, and 10% reduction with international support, in GHG emissions ............................................................................................... 13 Figure 3 CO2 emissions in the energy sector have fallen since 2006 ................................................................... 15 Figure 4 Energy sector emissions in 2014 were lower compared with the 1990s and 2000s ............................. 16 Figure 5 Jamaica’s baseline energy sector

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