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Download Full Text in Pdf Format Issue 3 (13), 2018 BORDERS EAST STRATEGY CIVIL SOCIETY FORUM CHANGES PRAGUE DELIVERABLES UKRAINE POLICY EUROPEAN UNION REFORMS ASSOCIATION NEIGHBOURHOOD EASTERN PARTNERSHIP RUSSIA WEST PESCO DELIVERABLES FORUM BORDERS BORDERS ASSOCIATION PERSPECTIVES CHANGES UA: Ukraine Analytica · 3 (13), 2018 • EASTERN PARTNERSHIP • NEIGHBOURHOOD POLICY • EUROPEAN UNION 1 BOARD OF ADVISERS Dr. Dimitar Bechev (Bulgaria, Director of the European Policy Institute) Issue 3 (13), 2018 Dr. Iulian Chifu Analysis and Early Warning Center) (Romania, Director of the Conflict European Neighrborhood Amb., Dr. Sergiy Korsunsky (Ukraine, Director of the Diplomatic Academy under the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine) Editors Dr. Igor Koval (Ukraine, Rector of Odessa National Dr. Hanna Shelest University by I.I. Mechnikov) Dr. Mykola Kapitonenko Amb., Dr. Sergey Minasyan (Armenia, Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of Armenia to Romania) Publisher: Published by NGO “Promotion of Intercultural (Germany, Director of the Cooperation” (Ukraine), Centre of International Marcel Röthig Representation of the Friedrich Ebert Foundation in Ukraine) of the Representation of the Friedrich Ebert Studies (Ukraine), with the financial support Foundation in Ukraine, and the Black Sea Trust. James Nixey (United Kingdom, Head of the Russia and Eurasia Programme at Chatham House, the UA: Ukraine Analytica Royal Institute of International Affairs) analytical journal in English on International is the first Ukrainian Relations, Politics and Economics. The journal Dr. Róbert Ondrejcsák (Slovakia, State Secretary, is aimed for experts, diplomats, academics, Ministry of Defence) students interested in the international relations and Ukraine in particular. Amb., Dr. Oleg Shamshur (Ukraine, Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of Ukraine to Contacts: France) website: http://ukraine-analytica.org/ e-mail: [email protected] Dr. Stephan De Spiegeleire (The Netherlands, Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/ Director Defence Transformation at The Hague ukraineanalytica Center for Strategic Studies) Twitter: https://twitter.com/UA_Analytica Ivanna Klympush-Tsintsadze (Ukraine, Vice- The views and opinions expressed in Prime Minister on European and Euroatlantic articles are those of the authors and do not Integration of Ukraine) Analytica, its editors, Board of Advisors or Dr. Dimitris Triantaphyllou (Greece, Director of necessarily reflect the position of UA: Ukraine donors. the Center for International and European Studies, Kadir Has University (Turkey)) ISSN 2518-7481 500 copies Dr. Asle Toje (Norway, Research Director at the Norwegian Nobel Institute) UA: Ukraine Analytica · 3 (13), 2018 1 TABLE OF CONTENTS THE ONLY WAY TO BENEFIT FROM THE ASSOCIATION AGREEMENT IS TO ENSURE ITS SUCCESSFUL IMPLEMENTATION 3 Interview with Amb. Kostiantyn Yelisieiev, Deputy Head of the Administration of the President of Ukraine THE EASTERN PARTNERSHIP AT THE TURN OF ITS TENTH ANNIVERSARY: WHERE HAVE WE COME SINCE PRAGUE, AND WHERE TO GO NEXT? 7 Pavel Havlicek TEN-POINT MEMO ON THE REVISED EASTERN PARTNERSHIP MULTILATERAL ARCHITECTURE 14 Hennadiy Maksak EASTERN PARTNERSHIP: WHAT OPTIONS OF DEVELOPMENT ARE NEXT FOR UKRAINE? 19 Oksana Dobrzhanska EAP–EU ECONOMIC INTEGRATION: WHAT IS NEXT? 25 Yurii Vdovenko ADVANCING THE REFORM AGENDA WITHIN THE EU ASSOCIATION AGREEMENTS: COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF MOLDOVA, GEORGIA, AND UKRAINE ON THE ROLE OF CIVIL SOCIETY 33 Andrei Iovu THE EU TOWARDS RUSSIA IN THE EASTERN NEIGHBOURHOOD – MISSING THE STRATEGIC VISION 41 Loredana Maria Simionov WHY BELARUS HAS A DISTINCTIVE POSITION IN THE ENP 46 Fatih Ekinci EU-NATO COOPERATION: IS PESCO THE ANSWER TO THE BALANCE OF EU’S REGIONAL PRIORITIES? 55 Alexandru C. Apetroe and Daniel Gheorghe 2 UA: Ukraine Analytica · 3 (13), 2018 THE EU TOWARDS RUSSIA IN THE EASTERN NEIGHBOURHOOD – MISSING THE STRATEGIC VISION Dr Loredana Maria Simionov Alexandru Ioan Cuza University of Iasi The conflict in and around Ukraine has sparked once more countless debates regarding the EU’s best course of action regarding Russia, as well as regarding Moscow’s actions and behaviour. It is clear that the events that shocked the world in 2014 caught the EU completely unprepared and have undoubtedly left the EU-Russia relations under unprecedented strain. The EU has lacked strategic vision in the Eastern Partnership region and underestimated both the Kremlin’s endgame as well as the reasons behind Russia’s involvement and actions in Crimea. Introduction membership perspective for the EaP Over the past decade, the European progress of Europeanisation in the region discourse about its Eastern Neighbourhood cannotpartners, only etc.), be blamedthe conflicton Russia, and but slowalso states has been centred on the concepts on the EU’s lack of commitment, long-term of Europeanisation, integration, and reforms, since it remains within the EU’s most important interests to have stable didvision, not yieldand anyspecific positive end-result outcomes. for As thesesuch, and prosperous countries at its borders. thecountries. EU’s approach The ‘go beforewith the 2014 flow’ determined approach Despite the union’s efforts to assist these that ruling elites of some EaP states were countries in developing their economic balancing their politics between Russia and and political environments, the outcome the European Union, and were implementing of the ENP has been rather disappointing, a ‘bridge’ policy between the West and the especially in the spheres of democracy and East. However, such a strategy failed because the rule of law. Furthermore, the events these countries did not have the resources in and around Ukraine have shaped what to balance for a long time, and big actors could be considered as the most serious have been insisting on them picking a side crisis in the EU-Russia relations and has in the end (particularly relevant for Ukraine, profoundly affected not only Ukraine, where the population was politically but also the welfare and security of the divided between a pro-Western and pro- extended Europe. Russian vision, a notion actively used and exaggerated by the parliamentary and Despite several inconsistencies, which presidential campaigns). Ukraine represents have been widely analysed in literature a tragic failure of the EU’s actorness in the (lack of incentives, limited resources, region, as it did not anticipate nor prepare EU members’ divergent interests, no for a crisis that could go to such a scale. UA: Ukraine Analytica · 3 (13), 2018 41 The Russian Factor in the Shared than usual. At the same time, a content Neighbourhood analysis detected some notions of doubt. The speech is dynamic (most used words are Without a doubt, the most sensitive verbs). Such discourse shows an emotional and problematic area in the Eastern attachment to the Ukraine issue, not only from the president’s side, but also from the resolution process. It is quite clear that citizens who posed the questions revolving Neighbourhood regards the conflict around Ukraine. resolution at its Eastern borders, where therethe EU arewas severalnot able long-simmeringto deal with conflict and For a comprehensive analysis, Ukraine’s and the EU’s interests and personal choices where the union’s engagement has been should be taken into account on the same sporadicpotentially at bestdestabilising so far . This regionconflicts, has beenand level as Russian ones described above; however, this paper is solely based on a brief Russian-Georgian war showed, could break critical analysis of the EU’s shortcomings outa hot at spotany givenof frozen time. conflicts, which, as the in understanding the deeper issues and structural causes of Russia’s reactions, The EU underestimated and did not consider which could have helped in making Russia the importance of Ukraine for Russia – it has more predictable and in anticipating some failed to see the emotional attachment and of the events that followed. the importance it has for Russians’ identity and collective mind-set. For Russians and for Although, the EU got involved and has Putin, Ukraine is much more than a territory invested in resolving the Ukraine crisis, as or pride; it represents an integral part of their identity, deeply rooted in ‘russkiy it merely reacted to events, without having mir’ concept, stretching all the way back awell clear as strategyother conflicts or political in the determination. area, quite often If to Kievan Rus. As such, the EU has terribly the EU had paid more attention to Russia’s underestimated the extent to which Russia emotional stance on Ukraine, it could have would go to defend its interests in the region built a proper strategy towards Russia and when it felt threatened with losing its grip Ukraine. Unfortunately, so far, the EU has on Ukraine. based its actions on improvisation and reactions to Russia. Therefore, how does the For instance, in the televised annual EU currently cope with these challenges? show Direct Line with Putin, in 2014, the most frequently used word in the entire The EU’s Lack of Vision and transcript is ‘Ukraine’. Although the show Political Imagination in the Eastern was supposed to touch upon more internal Neighbourhood affairs, from a wide spectre of spheres, Ukraine was mentioned overall 322 times The fact that the concept of ‘Common throughout the three hours and 40 minutes Strategies’ introduced by the Treaty of the TV show. However, it should be taken of Amsterdam (1997) has practically into account that this ‘direct line’ happened disappeared from the EU’s external
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