Krishnappa Venkatshamy Other Titles of Interest This volume presents perspectives on Research Fellow, Institute for Defence issues of importance to India’s grand Studies and Analyses (IDSA). His research strategy. Number of Experts discuss interests include India’s grand strategy, SOUTH ASIA: ENVISIONING A REGIOnaL FUTURE wide ranging security concerns: 2020 and Beyond Grand Strategy Grand Strategy global governance, security politics of Smruti S, Pattanaik socio-economic challenges; regional Israel and comparative strategic cultures. and internal security challenges; His recent publications include- Global ISBN: 978-81-8274-497-4 emerging challenges in foreign policy Power Shifts and Strategic Transition in Asia domain etc. The volume also addresses (ed.), Academic Foundation, 2009, India’s NON-STATE ARMED GROUP IN SOUTH ASIA recent and emerging security Grand Strategic Thought and Practice*(ed.), threats such as left wing extremism, Routledge, (forthcoming November Arpita Anant international terrorism, climate change 2012). He previously led the IDSA National ISBN: 978-81-8274-575-9 for India and energy security, and the role of Strategy Project (INSP). He is currently these for framing a national security leading the Strategic Trends 2050 Project, an 2020 and Beyond strategy for India. The authors in the interdisciplinary study of long-term strategic SPACE SECURITY: NEED FOR GLOBAL CONVERGENCE volume offer insightful answers to futures, sponsored by the Defence Research Arvind Gupta, Amitav Malik, Ajey Lele (Eds.) India for questions such as: What might India and Development Organisation (DRDO). ISBN: 978-81-8274-605-3 do to build a cohesive and peaceful domestic order in the in the next Princy George decades? How could India foster a Research Associate at the Institute for CHina’S PaTH TO POWER: ParTY, MILITARY AND global consensus on the global Defence Studies and Analyses (IDSA) THE POLITICS OF STATE TRANSITION commons that serve India’s interests and works with the Africa, Latin America, Jagannath P. Panda and values? What strategic framework will optimise India’s efforts to foster a Caribbean and UN Centre and the IDSA ISBN: 978-81-8274-482-0 National Strategy Project. Her current stable and peaceful neighbourhood? research focuses on the recent Arab revolutions, and the impacts of these on INDIA`S NEIGHBOURHOOD: CHALLENGES IN the region and the Western Sahel states. THE NEXT TWO DECADES & George Venkatshamy Her other research interests include India’s grand strategy and the Rumel Dahiya, Ashok K Behuria (Eds.) Israeli-Palestinian conflict. ISBN: 978-81-8274-687-9 995 $ 29.95 ISBN: 978-81-8274-657-2 Editors Krishnappa Venkatshamy 9 788182 746572 Princy George Grand Strategy for India 2020 and Beyond To Late Shri K. Subrahmanyam Grand Strategy for India 2020 and Beyond Editors Krishnappa Venkatshamy Princy George INSTITUTE FOR DEFENCE STUDIES & ANALYSES NEW DELHI First Published in 2012 Copyright © Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, New Delhi ISBN 978-81-8274-657-2 All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without first obtaining written permission of the copyright owner. Disclaimer: The views expressed in this book are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, or the Government of India. Published by PENTAGON SECURITY INTERNATIONAL An Imprint of PENTAGON PRESS 206, Peacock Lane, Shahpur Jat, New Delhi-110049 Phones: 011-64706243, 26491568 Telefax: 011-26490600 email: [email protected] website: www.pentagonpress.in Cataloging in Publication Data—DK Agencies (P) Ltd. <[email protected]> Courtesy: D.K. Agencies (P) Ltd. <[email protected]> editors, Krishnappa Grand strategy for India: 2020 and beyond / editors, Krishnappa Venkatshamy, Princy George. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN 9788182746572 esses. 2. India—Strategic 1. National security—India—Congresses. 2. India—Strategic aspects— . II. Princy George. III. Congresses. I. Krishnappa, V. II. Princy George. III. Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses. DDC 355.033054 23 Typeset in Palatino 10pt by The Laser Printers Printed at Chaman Offset Printers, New Delhi. Contents Foreword vii Acknowledgements xi Contributors xv Introduction 1 1. Grand Strategy for the First Half of the 21st Century 13 K. Subrahmanyam 2. Strategic Challenges and Risks in a Globalising World: An Indian Perspective 28 N.S. Sisodia 3. The Global Commons and India’s National Security Strategy 40 Kanti Bajpai 4. Grand Ideology, Bland Strategy 64 Rahul Sagar 5. Reforming the Military Institutions and National Security Strategy 72 Rumel Dahiya 6. The Maritime Dimension in India’s National Strategy 83 Sarabjeet Singh Parmar 7. Left Wing Extremism—Challenges and Approach 93 Vivek Chadha 8. Thinking about Counter Terrorism in India’s National Strategy 107 S. Kalyanaraman 9. International Terrorism and National Security Strategy 116 Deepa Prakash 10. Nuclear Weapons and India’s National Security Strategy 129 Rajesh Basrur 11. Nuclear Doctrine and Conflict 138 Ali Ahmed vi Grand Strategy for India: 2020 and Beyond 12. Strategic Implications of Human Capital Today 146 G. Balatchandirane 13. Economic Policy Dimensions of India’s International Strategy 162 Ajay Shah 14. Contemporary Health Security Challenges, and National Strategies 171 Rajib Dasgupta 15. South Asia in India’s National Security Strategy 181 Arvind Gupta 16. A Note on the China-India-US Triangle and India’s Strategy 194 Tanvi Madan 17. Dealing with the Endgame: India and the Af-Pak Puzzle 204 Rudra Chaudhuri 18. Nation Building in Afghanistan and India’s National Strategy 218 Shanthie Mariet D’Souza 19. Russia in India’s National Strategy 232 Smita Purushottam 20. Europe in Indian Strategy 242 Dhruva Jaishankar 21. One World 2020: A Decade-long Vision for India’s Relations with the United Nations 253 Manu Bhagavan 22. India and United Nations Peacekeeping: A 2020 Perspective 261 Satish Nambiar 23. Energy in India’s National Security Strategy 275 Devika Sharma 24. Climate Change and India’s National Strategy 301 Sandeep Sengupta 25. Water Diplomacy and India’s National Strategy 314 Medha Bisht Index 330 Acknowledgements vii Foreword This volume is the product of a four-day international conference on India’s National Security Strategy held on 20-23 December, 2010 at the IDSA. The conference launched the IDSA National Strategy Project (INSP), an initiative to provide a forum for interdisciplinary dialogue among specialists in international studies, economists, strategic experts and other groups with an interest in India’s strategic affairs. The key mission of the one-year long project was to strengthen the tools of strategic analysis through a comprehensive interdisciplinary approach instead of relying primarily on regional studies, bilateral relations and military issues. The National Strategy Project Team has had the opportunity interact with a large number of intellectuals from varied backgrounds in the past two years. These interactions provided us with an opportunity to identify deep drivers of change both at the domestic and international level. Five key themes emerged from these interactions and the papers in this volume. First, we are witnessing a dramatic shift in the locus of global power with the relative decline of the United States and the spectacular rise of China. The rise of China and India will alter the geopolitical landscape and the nature of the global system in the coming two decades. We are in a time of great geopolitical transformation. Our assumptions, theories, paradigms need to be revaluated in light of the technological, social, economic and political developments in the emerging world. Despite growing economic interdependency between China and the United States, trends suggest a potential for great power conflict in the Asia-Pacific region which will have consequences for our security. India should carefully watch security developments in the region, especially the China-United States axis, identify important currents, anticipate the consequences for India’s security and develop resources that will ensure our security under various contingencies. In the coming years, we should enhance our intellectual and intelligence capacities for long term strategic analysis beyond South Asia. We should build up our hard and soft power resources to meet plausible contingencies that will flow from great power competition in the region. Our enhancement of power and influence should continue to be for the defence of our sovereignty, territorial integrity and promotion of global good. We should eschew offensive doctrines or diplomatic postures while at the same time strengthening our viii Grand Strategy for India: 2020 and Beyond capacity to defend our core interests in the world. Historically, Indian leaders have demonstrated competence in combining strength with humility, and power with purpose. Our strengths are derived from history, culture, people and our democratic institutions. The Indian defence forces and our diplomatic apparatus are manifestations of our national purpose of defence and development. Also, historically our defence and security policies have sought to combine strength with restraint. We should continue the policy of restraint while bolstering our military capabilities. The complexity of the emerging world order, our historical