The China Question and Canadian Interests
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THE CHINA QUESTION AND ADA A N N CANADIAN INTERESTS A D Colin Robertson C T H D st The China question is the challenge for the 21 century. The West, including Canada, L has teeter-tottered between two conflicting approaches, one stemming from the E R missionary experience and the other from the realist school of interest and power. Our W O geography and demography give us cards to play, and with skillful diplomacy Canada can play a constructive role, drawing on our history and our Chinese-Canadian network. We should focus our efforts first on building trust through people-to-people connections as the basis for our commercial relationship. Useful policy initiatives on energy, education, diversity and the Arctic will also serve Canadian interests. La Chine constitue le principal défi du 21e siècle. Un défi face auquel l’Occident, le Canada y compris, oscille entre deux approches divergentes, la première émanant de l’expérience missionnaire, la seconde de l’école pragmatique des intérêts et du pouvoir. Or, du double point de vue géographique et démographique, le Canada a d’excellentes cartes en main et pourrait jouer un rôle constructif en s’appuyant à la fois sur une diplomatie avisée, son histoire et son réseau sino-canadien. Mais il nous faut d’abord installer la confiance entre nos deux pays en misant sur des liens personnalisés qui serviront de base à nos relations commerciales, sans oublier d’utiles initiatives stratégiques axées sur les enjeux de l’énergie, de l’éducation, de la diversité et de l’Arctique. istory may not repeat itself but sometimes it major economic institutions, arguably opening its economy rhymes. A hundred years ago, Britain was contend- more than Japan and India. It has resolved many of its bor- H ing with the rising new powers — Russia, United der disputes with its 14 neighbours, including the perennial States, Japan and, especially, the new contender, Germany. problem of an arms race across the Taiwan Strait. We know how that worked out. The World Bank reckons the Chinese “miracle” has It would be the bloodiest century in the history of pulled 400 million from poverty and on almost every scale: mankind. Graveyards in Europe and Asia are a reminder meat consumption, living space, education. China that Canadians do not live in a fireproof house and under- leapfrogged Britain, Germany and then Japan to become the line why Canadian foreign policy since the Second World world’s second-largest economy. Hosting the Olympics in War has been characterized by a commitment to collective 2008 was a demonstration that China had arrived. Last year security and an active, global internationalism. it was the site for the Shanghai World Expo. While I was Today, the US is contending with the rising new powers there this past summer, it hosted the Universiade in — Brazil, a renascent Russia, India and, especially, the new Shenzhen. contender, China. Managing the China relationship for the 21st century will be as important as the German question he miracle is not without warts. Chinese treatment of was for the last century. T dissidence can border on the paranoid — witness its By 2030 China is expected to have the largest economy ongoing demonization of the Dalai Lama and clumsy treat- in the world, generating twice as much trade as the US. Since ment of Nobel Peace Prize winner, Liu Xiaobo. Social unrest Deng Xiaoping moved away from central planning to is an abiding preoccupation with the fear, as Mao put it, “reform and opening up” in the late 1970s, China has con- that “a single spark can start a prairie fire.” Its 35 different sistently demonstrated a willingness to be a responsible play- minorities number over 100 million people, or about 8.3 er and play according to “Western” rules, in stark contrast to percent of the 1.3 billion population. Chinese nations and an earlier era when China systematically tried to destabilize the autonomous regions of Tibet, Inner Mongolia and its neighbours and spread communism. It has joined all the Xinjiang make up over 40 percent of Chinese territory. POLICY OPTIONS 65 NOVEMBER 2011 Colin Robertson For the Chinese leadership, China is now the alternate eco- national system responds to the chang- domestic stability is fundamental to nomic centre to the United States. It ing concert of powers and that China, progress, and this has led to celebrated is also America’s biggest creditor. It in particular, is accorded place, stand- confrontations, especially with regard has surpassed Germany as the world’s ing and respect in a new order built on to freedom of information. Examples biggest manufacturer. It is becoming peaceful, competitive dynamism. are those with Rupert Murdoch’s the alternate military pole to the Gamed out in thrillers like SkyTV (which led to the withdrawal of United States, and while far behind in Matthew Glass’s Ultimatum or Alex Berenson’s The Ghost War, Graveyards in Europe and Asia are a reminder that Canadians the alternative scenarios do not live in a fireproof house and underline why Canadian will harm Canada: Sino- foreign policy since the Second World War has been American divisions on cur- characterized by a commitment to collective security and an rency, climate change and trade leading to the collapse active, global internationalism. of globalization, a reversion their distribution of BBC News) and sophistication and technology, it is to protectionism and isolationism in more recently with Google over coming up fast, especially on the the US, the stagnation of reform initia- Internet freedom. The poet and per- employment of cyber-intrusion. Any tives in China and, ultimately, military formance artist Ai Weiwei, incarcerat- effort to deal with climate change will confrontation over the Straits of ed earlier this year, has observed that have to involve China. It is the Taiwan. “China is like a runner sprinting very world’s biggest carbon emitter, Our geography and demography fast but it has a heart condition.” The although the United States, Australia, give us cards to play and through skill- recent smash-up of its high-speed Europe and ourselves emit far more ful diplomacy Canada can play a con- train is a reminder of a sometimes too per head, but it is also embracing structive role in keeping the reckless pursuit in attaining techno- alternative sources, and as I witnessed Sino-American relationship on track. logical milestones. But generally, during a trip to China this summer, But first we have to develop a “smart” Chinese leadership has demonstrated solar energy is already in application relationship with China. It is never courage in their domestic economic even in Lhasa. easy dealing with the Middle reform and behaved with restraint on Canadians have an interest and Kingdom, but by focusing on people- the international stage. role to play in ensuring that the inter- to-people connections, we will build FIGURE 1. TOP THREE COUNTRIES BY ECONOMIC DOMINANCE (% SHARE* OF GLOBAL ECONOMIC POWER), 1870 TO 2030 Great Britain United States United States China Germany Japan China United States France Germany Japan India * Weighted by share of world GDP, trade and net capital exports Source: Arvind Subramanian. 66 OPTIONS POLITIQUES NOVEMBRE 2011 The China question and Canadian interests trust that will both serve our commer- told Prime Minister Harper during the political-level contacts during the fed- cial interests and advance our ability November 2009 visit to Beijing, “This is eral-level hiatus. to play constructive internationalism. the first meeting between the Chinese Canadian companies, notably premier and the Canadian prime min- Bombardier, have found success in the anada starts with a couple of ister in almost five years…Five years is Chinese market, supplying several of C advantages. too long a time.” China’s national key projects, includ- First, our history. Still a staple in It was an error in judgment. It had ing the Automated People Mover at Chinese liturgy on Canada is the lega- put in the deep freeze the comprehen- Beijing Airport, the high-speed link cy of Dr. Norman Bethune and the sive partnership launched in 1997 after between the capital and Beijing remembrance that Pierre Trudeau a series of successful Team Canada mis- Airport, the Shanghai Metro and the defied conventional wisdom and the sions led by Prime Minister Jean Wu-Guang rail line. US when Canada recognized China in Chrétien. The hiatus after 2006 reflect- The Harper 2009 visit produced a 1970. Our recognition led a procession ed the lingering effect of Reform Party series of agreements, involving climate of some 30 other countries to apply roots on the new Conservative Party change, cultural exchange and travel. what came to be known as the and the former’s alignment with the China’s granting Canada “approved Canadian formula. Subsequent prime Taiwan lobby, a legitimate concern destination status” is a concession that ministers, especially Brian Mulroney about human rights abuses in China, a will allow travel agents to vigorously and Jean Chrétien, also recog- promote travel to Canada and nized the importance of the China is now the alternate economic boost tourism. Chinese relationship. Without During the past two years, kowtowing on human rights, centre to the United States. It is also there has been a steady flow of they got their message across in America’s biggest creditor. It has senior political visits, including a manner that preserved “face.” surpassed Germany as the world’s the state visit of President Hu Second, our existing peo- biggest manufacturer. It is becoming Jintao to Canada in June 2010 ple-to-people ties. While the US where the leaders committed to has always been the main desti- the alternate military pole to the raise the bilateral trade volume nation for Chinese migrants, United States, and while far behind to US$60 billion by 2015.