Transitioning to Alternative Fuel Vehicles a Feasibility Study for the City of Arcadia
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UCLA Luskin School of Public Affairs Applied Policy Report Transitioning to Alternative Fuel Vehicles A Feasibility Study for the City of Arcadia Gabriela Cardozo Janet Cuanas Vicky Hsu Debbie Iamranond *Image Source: http://www.freegreatpicture.com/files/141/20194-green-cars.jpg Acknowledgements We would like to thank our advisor, Professor Mark Kleiman, for his guidance and support throughout the year. We would also like to thank Professor Martin Wachs and Professor Mark Peterson at the Luskin School of Public Affairs for their advice and feedback. We would like to extend a special thank you to the Luskin Center of Innovation for their generous grant and expertise. We would like to acknowledge Professor JR DeShazo, Professor Brett Williams, Susan Woodward, and Colleen Callahan. We are grateful for our client, the City of Arcadia, for making this project possible and providing us with valuable information. Specifically, thank you to Carmen Masud (Management Analyst), Dave McVey (General Services Superintendent), Dominic Lazzaretto (City Manager), Ken Herman (Deputy Public Works Services Director), and Linda Garcia (Communications, Marketing and Special Projects Manager). Finally, we are appreciative of the field experts we interviewed including Josh Boone (Senior Manager of Business Development and Programs at the PEV Collaborative) and Cris Liban (DEO Environmental Compliance and Services Department at LA Metro). Disclaimer This report was prepared in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Master in Public Policy degree in the Department of Public Policy at the University of California, Los Angeles. It was prepared at the direction of the Department and of the City of Arcadia as a policy client. The views expressed herein are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the Department, the UCLA Luskin School of Public Affairs, UCLA as a whole, or the client. ii Abbreviations AFDC – Alternative Fuels Data Center AFV – Alternative Fuel Vehicle AQI – Air Quality Index AQIP – Air Quality Improvement Program ARFVTP – Alternative and Renewable Fuel and Vehicle Technology Program BEV – Battery Electric Vehicle CARB – California Air Resources Board CCSE – California Center for Sustainable Energy CEC – California Energy Commission CNG – Compressed Natural Gas CVRP – Clean Vehicle Rebate Project DOE – Department of Energy DOT – Department of Transportation EFMP – Enhanced Fleet Modernization Program EIA – Energy Information Administration EPA – Environmental Protection Agency EV – Electric Vehicle GGE – Gasoline Gallon Equivalent GHG –Greenhouse gas GIS – Geographic Information Systems GMC – General Motors Corporation HEV – Hybrid Electric Vehicle HP – Horsepower HVIP – Hybrid and Zero-Emission Truck and Bus Voucher Incentive Project ICE – Internal Combustion Engine ICEV – Internal Combustion Engine Vehicle KBB – Kelley Blue Book LCA – Life-cycle Cost Analysis LNG – Liquefied Natural Gas MPG – Miles per gallon MSRP – Manufacturer Suggested Retail Price NHTSA – National Highway Traffic Safety Administration PEV – Plug-in Electric Vehicle PHEV – Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle PWSD – Public Works Services Department SCAQMD – South Coast Air Quality Management District ZEV – Zero-emission Electric Vehicle iii Table of Contents Executive Summary ...................................................................................................................... 1 Introduction ................................................................................................................................... 2 Existing Policies.................................................................................................................. 4 The Client............................................................................................................................ 4 The Current Fleet ................................................................................................................ 5 Vehicle Maintenance and Repair ........................................................................................ 5 The City’s Drivers............................................................................................................... 6 Leasing and Conversion Options ........................................................................................ 6 Overview ............................................................................................................................. 7 Assumptions................................................................................................................................... 8 Local Fueling Infrastructure ..................................................................................................... 10 Battery Electric Vehicles ............................................................................................................ 12 Basic Information (Including Benefits & Considerations) ............................................... 12 Sources .............................................................................................................................. 13 Vehicle Conversions ......................................................................................................... 13 Vehicle Maintenance & Safety Concerns ......................................................................... 14 Laws .................................................................................................................................. 14 Hybrids and Plug-In Hybrids .................................................................................................... 15 Basic Information (Including Benefits and Considerations) ............................................ 15 Sources .............................................................................................................................. 16 Vehicle Conversions ......................................................................................................... 16 Vehicle Maintenance & Safety Concerns ......................................................................... 16 Laws .................................................................................................................................. 17 Compressed Natural Gas ........................................................................................................... 18 Basic Information (Including Benefits & Considerations) ............................................... 18 Sources .............................................................................................................................. 20 Vehicle Conversion ........................................................................................................... 21 Vehicle Maintenance & Safety Concerns ......................................................................... 21 Laws .................................................................................................................................. 21 Incentives to Use Alternative Fuel Vehicles .............................................................................. 23 Local Level ....................................................................................................................... 23 State Level ........................................................................................................................ 23 Federal Level .................................................................................................................... 24 Evaluative Criteria...................................................................................................................... 25 Cost ................................................................................................................................... 26 Discount Rate ........................................................................................................ 27 City’s Vehicle Performance Requirements ....................................................................... 28 Reliability .......................................................................................................................... 28 Results .......................................................................................................................................... 31 iv Recommendations ....................................................................................................................... 33 Sedans ............................................................................................................................... 33 SUVs ................................................................................................................................. 34 Light-Duty and Medium-Duty Pickup Trucks .................................................................. 34 Diagnostic Software Recommendation............................................................................. 35 Sensitivity Analysis ..................................................................................................................... 36 Fuel Prices ......................................................................................................................... 36 Conclusion ................................................................................................................................... 39 Sources ........................................................................................................................................