Drivers of Deforestation and Forest Degradation in Bhutan
Watershed Management Division Department of Forests and Park Services Ministry of Agriculture and Forests Bhutan March 2017
Acknowledgements
The Watershed Management Division, Department of Forests & Park Services, Ministry of Agriculture & Forests, acknowledges its sincere appreciation to all the organizations, both within as well as outside the Government administration, for contributing valuable information for preparation of this document on “Drivers of Deforestation & Forest Degradation in Bhutan”. The document is one of the key outputs of the REDD+ Readiness Preparation Proposal (R-PP) of Bhutan which has received fnancial support from the Forest Carbon Partnership Facility (FCPF) of the World Bank.
Special thanks are due to Mrs. Gabrielle Kissinger and Mr. Matthias Seebauer (international consultants) for collecting, consolidating and analyzing the available data and for preparing this document, and Mr. K.B. Samal (national consultant) for providing the national context and supporting the international consultants.
We express our sincere gratitude to Hon’ble Lyonpo and Dasho Secretary, Ministry of Agriculture & Forests for their overall guidance. We also thank the Director, Department of Forests & Park Services for his particular interest in guiding this study. We are especially grateful to the team from the Forest Resources Management Division led by Mr. Lobzang Dorji, Chief Forestry Offcer, for providing relevant information and critically reviewing this document. Special mention should be made of the important role played by the GIS team.
Our sincere thanks goes to the members of the REDD+ Task Force, the Technical Working Groups and other offcials who have participated in the two review write- shops conducted for reviewing and refning this document.
We also would like to thank the participants of the various stakeholder consultation workshops, the interviewees and other offcials for their substantial insights and contributions.
Finally, this study would not have been possible without the support of the FCPF, World Bank and specifcally the leadership of Ms. Dora Cudjoe, Task Team Leader, who supported us throughout this process.
Drivers of deforestation and forest degradation in Bhutan 3 4 Drivers of deforestation and forest degradation in Bhutan Table of Contents
Executive Summary ...... 12
1. Overview and context ...... 37
2. Analytical framework ...... 40
3. Direct drivers of deforestation and forest degradation ...... 43 3.1 Land Use Cover Change Analysis ...... 43 3.1.1 Spatial analysis ...... 43 3.2 Results - Deforestation ...... 51 3.2.1 Deforestation at the national level ...... 51 3.2.2 Deforestation at District-levels ...... 51 3.2.3 Assessment of deforestation patterns ...... 53 3.2.4 Drivers of deforestation ...... 54 3.2.5 Comparing statistical records with spatial results ...... 61 3.2.6 Ranking of deforestation drivers ...... 62 3.3. Results - forest degradation ...... 63 3.3.1 Summary national results of Degradation ...... 63 3.3.2 District level assessment of degradation ...... 64 3.3.3 Assessment of degradation patterns ...... 70 3.3.4 Drivers of forest degradation ...... 74 3.3.5 Comparing statistical records with spatial results ...... 82 3.3.6 Ranking of degradation drivers ...... 83 3.4 Estimation of carbon stock changes between 2000, 2010 and 2015 to quantify forest degradation ...... 84
4. Actors, motivations and underlying drivers ...... 89 4.1 Methodology ...... 89 4.2 Actor and motivation analysis ...... 89 4.3. Governance challenges and law enforcement ...... 92 4.3.1 Decisions without integrated planning and guidelines, particularly related to cross-sector alignment or confict (sub-issue is lack of spatial planning guidance) ...... 92 4.3.2 Implications of expanding hydropower ...... 94 4.3.3 Capacity constraints and/or weak management, including law enforcement and controlling illegal activity ...... 95 4.3.4 Rural subsidized timber allotment ...... 96 4.3.5 Climate change is not yet mainstreamed into development planning ...... 98 4.4 Economic, social, poverty and tenure aspects ...... 98 4.4.1 Poverty ...... 99 4.4.2 Demographic factors ...... 99 5. Opportunities for “+” activities ...... 100
6. Future deforestation and forest degradation ...... 102 6.1. Methodology ...... 102 6.2 Projecting the impact of deforestation drivers ...... 102
Drivers of deforestation and forest degradation in Bhutan 5 6.2.1 Allotment of SRFL for various purposes ...... 102 6.2.2 Hydropower ...... 103 6.2.3 Roads ...... 104 6.2.4 Agriculture ...... 104 6.2.5 Mining ...... 105 6.2.6 Power lines...... 106 6.3 Projecting the impact of degradation drivers ...... 106 6.3.1 Timber harvesting ...... 106 6.3.2 Firewood ...... 107 6.3.3 Fires ...... 109 6.3.4 Livestock ...... 109 6.4 Future forest degradation risk analysis ...... 110
7. Regulatory and policy framework ...... 115 7.1 Overarching policy and legislation ...... 115 7.2. Land ...... 116 7.3 Forests ...... 118 7.4 Community and Social forestry provisions ...... 120 7.5 Climate Change ...... 120 7.6 Biodiversity ...... 121 7.7 Water ...... 121 7.8 Other concepts of note ...... 122
8. Recommendations for criteria to prioritize strategic options and pathways to address direct and underlying drivers ...... 123
9. Recommendations for policy and measure responses to address drivers ...... 128
10. References ...... 136
Annexes ...... 140 Annex 1: Hydropower projects in Bhutan ...... 140 Annex 2: Interviews and persons consulted ...... 144 Annex 3: Methodological outline and protocol - GIS and spatial tasks ...... 151 Annex 4: Trends in SRFL allotment and indication of future trend ...... 157 Annex 5: Stratifed stocking volumes applied in this study ...... 160
List of Tables and Figures
Table 1: Allocation of forest types of this study with LULC and NFI forest types ...... 49 Table 2 Total national forest area, deforestation and forest gain results 2000, 2010 and 2015 ...... 51 Table 3: Forest area gains and losses at the district level ...... 51 Table 4: Estimates of state reserve forest allotted to various purposes in 2008 to 2014 (ha) ...... 55 Table 5: Forest areas estimated to be lost due to a selection of hydropower projects ...... 58 Table 6: Right-of-way for electricity transmission lines ...... 60 Table 7: Statistical records of deforestation 2000-2015
6 Drivers of deforestation and forest degradation in Bhutan attributed to the different drivers ...... 61 Table 8: Ranking of deforestation drivers ...... 62 Table 9: Total national degradation (crown cover decrease) and improvement (crown cover increase) results 2000, 2010 and 2015 ...... 64 Table 10: Forest crown cover classes in % of total forest areas in Bhutan and changes between 2000 and 2015 ...... 64 Table 11: Major district-wise forest changes between 2010 and 2015 and assessment of hotspot districts ...... 67 Table 12: Area shares of forest degradation depending on forest type and crown cover change ...... 70 Table 13: Areas under degradation during 2000 - 2015 including % of total degradation area ...... 71 Table 14: Comparison of the statistical records with spatial results for forest degradation ...... 83 Table 15: Ranking of drivers of forest degradation ...... 83 Table 16: Scenario 1 Analysis of carbon stock changes between 2000 and 2015 - Tier 2 approach ...... 86 Table 17: Scenario 2 Analysis of carbon stock changes between 2000 and 2015 - Tier 2 approach ...... 87 Table 18: Comparison of total carbon stocks estimated for this study using NFI data with FRA 2015 data (all fgures in million metric tonnes of CO2 e) ...... 88 Table 19: Actors, motivations, opportunities ...... 89 Table 20: Simple extrapolation projection of hydropower development impacts on forests ...... 103 Table 21: weighing by ranking of parameters to assess forest degradation ...... 111 Table 22: Spectral bands of satellite image ...... 152 Table 23: Band combination (Image Enchantments / Channel improvement) to produce Land use classifcation ...... 153 Table 24: Accuracy assessment of land cover 2015 ...... 155 Table 25: Comparison ICIMOD Ground Truthing 2010; ICIMOD Ground Truthing 2000 not available ...... 156 Table 26: Crown cover % classes ...... 156
Figure 1: Relationship between underlying and direct drivers of deforestation and forest degradation ...... 41 Figure 2: REDD+ driver interventions, actors and scales ...... 43 Figure 3: Land Use 2000 ...... 44 Figure 4: Land Use 2010 ...... 45 Figure 5: Land Use 2015 ...... 45 Figure 6: Crown cover 2000 ...... 46 Figure 7: Crown cover 2010 ...... 46 Figure 8: Crown cover 2015 ...... 47 Figure 9: Vegetation zones of Bhutan based on the vegetation classifcation of Grierson and Long (1983), in relation to altitude and precipitation ...... 49 Figure 10: Forest loss and gain 2000-2015 ...... 53 Figure 11: State reserve forest land allotted to roads in the year 2008 to 2014 ...... 59
Drivers of deforestation and forest degradation in Bhutan 7 Figure 12: State reserve forests land allotted to transmission lines in 2008 to 2014 ...... 60 Figure 13: Growth in total number of mines leased and closed (1976-2015) ...... 61 Figure 14 summary present and future impact scoring of drivers of deforestation as a result of exercises during regional consultation workshops ...... 63 Figure 15: Percent of total forest area in Bhutan in 2010 persisted or changed to 2015, different change categories (numbers represent crown cover classes);example: 39% of the total forest area in 2010 in Bhutan persisted in the dense crown cover class (>50% crown cover), while 11% improved from open to medium-dense forests ...... 65 Figure 16: Percent of total forest area in four districts in 2010 persisted or changed to 2015, different change categories (numbers represent crown cover classes) ...... 67 Figure 17: Forest degradation and improvement 2000-2015 ...... 70 Figure 18: Forest change categories 2010 -2015 within FMU forest areas ...... 72 Figure 19: Forest change categories 2010 -2015 within CF forest areas ...... 73 Figure 20: Forest change categories 2010 -2015 within PA forest areas ...... 73 Figure 21: Forest change categories 2010 -2015 within FAOEMR forest areas ...... 74 Figure 22: Timber extracted from forests and supplied in Bhutan from 2009 to 2015 ...... 76 Figure 23: Trends in all forest offences across all districts in the country in 2008 and 2013 ...... 77 Figure 24: Major categories of frewood consumers in Bhutan ...... 78 Figure 25: Per capita frewood consumption in Bhutan and other developing nations/territory ...... 79 Figure 26: Firewood extracted from forests and supplied in Bhutan in 2008 to 2014...... 80 Figure 27: Forest fre incidences and areas burnt in Bhutan between 2009 to 2015 ...... 81 Figure 28 summary present and future impact scoring of drivers of degradation as a result of exercises during regional consultation workshops ...... 84 Figure 29: Share of degradation in relation to the specifc direct-wise forest areas ...... 97 Figure 30: (a) Annual imported and exported quantities of the ten main forest products traded by Bhutan between 1996 and 2011 (in round wood equivalent volume), and (b) Reconstruction of the total annual production and consumption of roundwood in Bhutan ...... 101 Figure 31: Timber extracted from forests and supplied in Bhutan in 2008 to 2014...... 107 Figure 32: Firewood extracted from forests and supplied in Bhutan in 2008 to 2014...... 108 Figure 33: Trends in population of cattle and yak in Bhutan in 2009 to 2014 ...... 109 Figure 34: Factor Maps classifed based on risks ...... 112
8 Drivers of deforestation and forest degradation in Bhutan Figure 35: Bhutan overall forest degradation risk map ...... 113 Figure 36: Bhutan forest degradation risk map for canopy cover > 50 % ...... 114 Figure 37: Bhutan forest degradation risk map for canopy cover 30 - 50 % ...... 114 Figure 38: Bhutan forest degradation risk map for canopy cover 10 – 30 % ...... 114 Figure 39: Area of interest (mapping and analysis task) ...... 152 Figure 40: Trends in SRFL allotments 2008-2014 ...... 159
Drivers of deforestation and forest degradation in Bhutan 9 10 Drivers of deforestation and forest degradation in Bhutan List of Acronyms
ACC Anti-Corruption Commission AEZ Agro-ecological Zone AAC Annual Allowable Cut ADB Asian Development Bank CF Community Forest CFMG Community Forest Management Group CFO Chief Forestry Offcer DGPC Druk Green Power Corporation DoFPS Department of Forests and Park Services EDP Economic Development Policy EIA Environment Impact Assessment FAO Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations FAOEMR Forest areas outside existing management regimes FMU Forest Management Unit FNCRR Forest and Nature Conservation Rules and Regulations FIMS Forest Information Management System FMU Forest Management Unit FREL Forest Reference Emissions Level FYP Five Year Plan GHG Greenhouse gas GNH Gross National Happiness GNHC Gross National Happiness Commission GPG Good Practice Guidance GRF Government Reserve Forest land (now State Reserve Forest Land) ICIMOD International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development INDC Intended Nationally Determined Contributions IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change LULC Land Use Land Cover change MCDA Multi-criteria decision analysis MoAF Ministry of Agriculture and Forests MoEA Ministry of Economic Affairs LCMP Land Cover Mapping Project LPG Liquefed petroleum gas MW Mega Watt NEC National Environment Commission NFI National Forest Inventory NLC National Land Commission NRDCL Natural Resources Development Corporation Limited NWFP Non Wood Forest Produce PA Protected Area PAM Policy and measure PES Payments for Ecosystem Services PF Private Forest REDD+ Reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation in developing countries, and conservation, sustainable management of forests and enhancement of forest carbon stocks. RGoB Royal Government of Bhutan R-PP RED+ Readiness Preparation Proposal
Drivers of deforestation and forest degradation in Bhutan 11 SRFL State Reserved Forest Land tCO2 Tonnes carbon dioxide equivalent WMD Watershed Management Division WS Working Scheme UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change སོ་ནམ་དང་ནགས་ཚལ་ལན་ཁག། ROYAL GOVERNMENT OF BHUTAN Ministry of Agriculture and Forests Tashichhodzong, Timphu : Bhutan
དང་ཆན། SECRETARY PREFACE
Bhutan’s strong commitment to its forests stems directly from the Constitution of the Kingdom of Bhutan. At the 15th Conference of Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in 2009, Bhutan declared to remain carbon neutral. In 2015, Bhutan’s Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC) was submitted to the UNFCCC as part of the historic Paris Agreement on climate change. Te INDC emphasizes the importance of adaptation and mitigation for Bhutan’s forests, given future climate change impacts to its mountain ecosystems. Te forest component of the INDC can be well achieved through Bhutan’s on-going pursuit of REDD+ (Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation in developing countries, and the role of conservation, sustainable management of forest and enhancement of forest carbon stocks). REDD+ is a mechanism under the UN Framework Convention for Climate Change (UNFCCC), which the Department of Forests & Park Services (DoFPS) committed to adopt in 2013, with the support of the UN-REDD Programme and the World Bank Forest Carbon Partnership Facility.
Tis study on Drivers of Deforestation and Forest Degradation is the frst step towards development of Bhutan’s REDD+ National Strategy. By elucidating the various direct and underlying drivers of forest cover change and forest degradation, this report provides a guide to identify the various response interventions (policies and measures) that can be pursued by all relevant stakeholders to improve our forest carbon stocks and achieve co-benefts.
I am pleased that the Department of Forests and Park Services, through its REDD+ secretariat within the Watershed Management Division, has commissioned this study and will incorporate its fndings into development of the REDD+ National Strategy. Te report makes recommendations on priorities for improved alignment among various sectors that depend on or impact forests, such as energy, agriculture, and others. Terefore, the cross-sectoral nature of these fndings can provide useful inputs to various sector plans which will be defned in the 12th Five Year Plan.
I would like to commend the Watershed Management Division and the team for guiding this crucial study. I am confdent that the fndings and recommendations from this study will provide the required guidance for the Department of Forests and Park Services and other agencies to meaningfully pursue actions to support the country in its eforts to maintain the high quality of its forests, support sustainable development, as well as contribute to global eforts to mitigate the adverse efects of climate change. obtain support from the international community to achieve positive outcomes.
Rinzin Dorji
དཔལ་ལན་འབག་གཞང་། སོ་ནམ་དང་ནགས་ཚལ་ལན་ཁག།
ནགས་ཚལ་དང་གང་ཀ་ཞབས་ཏོག་ལས་ཁངས། Royal Government of Bhutan Ministry of Agriculture and Forests Department of Forests and Park Services Timphu
FOREWORD
With 70.46% of its total land area under forest cover, and rich forest biodiversity, the Kingdom of Bhutan is recognized as a leader in environmental stewardship. Our decision to pursue REDD+ and to develop a REDD+ National Strategy is part of our on-going commitment to high-quality management of Bhutan’s forests. To this end, we welcome support from international donors such as the World Bank Forest Carbon Partnership Facility (FCPF) to achieve these goals.
Tis study on the Drivers of Deforestation and Forest Degradation in Bhutan provides a timely window through which we assess our forests at the national level. First, the report fnds that while our forest cover is increasing, our forests are actually degrading. Forest carbon stocks can be a proxy measurement of overall forest health, but clearly there are other values to be accounted for, including the distribution of species-rich forest types, biodiversity values, watershed values, climate adaptation functions, cultural values and others. While net deforestation is not a major concern, future driver pressures, particularly from other sectors, will impact forests. We can anticipate these pressures on forests and work with other agencies and local governments to ensure our State Reserve Forest Land allotment decisions are sound over the long-term. Tese are some of the recommendations from this report that DoFPS will further refne with stakeholders during the development of the REDD+ National Strategy.
Tis study applied spatial, statistical and policy analysis to identify the full range of deforestation and forest degradation factors afecting forests, identifed the underlying drivers that infuence those, and projected the trends into the future. Tese analyses formed the basis for the policy and measure recommendations, which were vetted by a broad set of experts and stakeholders.
I would like to acknowledge the hard work by the Watershed Management Division, Forest Resources Management Division, members of REDD+ Taskforce and the Technical Working Groups for their valuable contribution to this study. Te support from the World Bank FCPF made this report possible. I look forward to continue working with other ministries, agencies and stakeholders to carry these insights and recommendations forward through subsequent planning and implementation processes.
Tashi Delek
DIRECTOR DoFPS
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Bhutan declared to remain carbon neutral at the 15th Conference of Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in 2009 in Copenhagen, Denmark. In addition, the Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC) submitted in September 2015 towards fnalization of the Paris Agreement further re-iterated Bhutan’s pledge to remain carbon neutral. Bhutan’s INDC emphasizes the importance of adaptation and mitigation, given future climate change impacts to its mountain ecosystems. The Department of Forests & Park Services (DoFPS) is implementing three programs in the 11th Five Year Plan (sustainable Management of State Reserve Forests (SRFL), sustainable management of forest landscapes and conservation of biodiversity, and integrated watershed management) to ensure sustainable environmental service delivery, and REDD+ activities cut across all three programs.
The identifcation of drivers of deforestation and forest degradation is a critical frst step towards the National REDD+ Strategy. This analysis of the drivers of deforestation and forest degradation in Bhutan, including barriers to sustainable management, conservation and enhancement of forests (the ‘driver analysis’), frames historical patterns as well as estimates future pressures on forests, based on projections for growth and development. In this way, the driver analysis should provide the basis for understanding what policies and measures can affect driver pressures into the future, at various scales, in order to guide growth and development that is compatible with Bhutan’s forest heritage. This is the frst kind of study undertaken to measure deforestation and forest degradation in the country and it paves the way forward for further works under the REDD+ Readiness process. Further analysis on deforestation and forest degradation will also be undertaken under the Forest Reference Emission Level (FREL) work. Therefore, the fgure on deforestation and forest degradation presented in the study will be validated by the FREL work.
1. Land use/land cover change analysis
A land use/land cover change analyses (LULC) was undertaken for Bhutan based on existing maps as well as on a new classifcation for the year 2015 in close cooperation with the ongoing Land Use Land Cover (LULC) mapping, 2016 DoFPS, Ministry of Agriculture and Forests. An ICIMOD dataset produced in the frame of a decadal land cover change study (1990 – 2010) for Bhutan (ICIMOD 2015; Hamad et al, 2015) was used as reference for the years 2000 and 2010. In addition, a new classifcation was done for the year 2015 using Landsat 8 images from USGS. Finally, this led to a land use/land cover change analysis for the period 2000-2015 in the frame of this study.
Areas with crown cover above 10% and minimum area of 0.5 ha were classifed as forest in this study, as per the defnition of forest in Bhutan. Any land with crown cover below 10% (whether classifed as State Reserve Forest Land (SRFL) or not) was not included as forest in this analysis. The forest area was further stratifed into conifer forests, broadleaf forests and mixed forests based on the ICIMOD dataset. Forest types in this study were aligned with the LULC 2016 and National Forest Inventory forest types. In addition, a second layer of analysis was done for the same time period in order to assess potential forest degradation, using three crown cover classes:
Drivers of deforestation and forest degradation in Bhutan 17 • 50% crown cover – medium to dense forests, representing natural or near-natural forest conditions; • 30-50% crown cover – semi-disturbed forests, representing typically forests which supply timber and other resources for rural households; and • 10-30% crown cover – open forests, representing severely disturbed forests.
Results – Deforestation
On a national level, this study fnds the forest area increased from 2.63 million ha in 2000, to 2.65 million ha in 2010, and 2.70 million ha in 2015. This results in a total forest cover of 70.6% in 2015 which is in line with the forest cover of the LULC project 2016 (70.8%). Hence, deforestation is not a discernible land use trend in Bhutan from a land use/land cover change perspective.
Over the 15-year period (2000-2015), 64,111 ha have been deforested while 140,819 ha of forest area were gained. This results in a total net forest area change of 76,708 ha, or an annual increase of 5,114 ha over this period. 36,298 ha of the deforestation can be attributed to the conversion of forest to agriculture. There are two districts where the forest area has decreased compared to the year 2000 - Mongar had a reduction of 3,922 ha, and Punakha had a reduction of 162 ha. In all other districts the forest area has increased.
Figure: Forest loss and gain 2000-2015 The assessment of deforestation patterns between 2000-2015 yields the following observations: The assessment75% of the deforestation of deforestation occurred within patterns broadleaf between forest, while 2000-2015 mixed forests had yields 13% and the 12% following observations:in conifer 75% forests. of the40% ofdeforestation the deforestation occurred in elevations within in broadleaf the range of 1,000forest, to 2,000 while mixed forests hadmeters, 13% while and 31% 12% was in in areas conifer lower thanforests. 1,000 40% meters, of and the 28% deforestation above 2,000 meters. occurred in elevationsDeforestation in the range is fairly of evenly 1,000 distributed to 2,000 across meters, slope classes. while 58% of31% forest was loss occurred in areas within lower than 1 km of the nearest road, and 67% of deforestation occurred within 1 km of a settlement. 65% of 1,000 meters,forest loss and occurred 28% within above the temperate2,000 meters. zones of Bhutan, Deforestation 19% in tropical/ is sub-tropicalfairly evenly zone and distributed across slope17% classes. in cool temperate 58% of zones. forest Deforestation loss occurred largely occurred within in forest1 km areas of the outside nearest existing road, and 67% of deforestationmanagement regimes occurred (FAOEMR). within However, 1 km 17% of ofa settlement. deforestation occurred 65% of within forest protected loss occurred within theareas. temperate zones of Bhutan, 19% in tropical/ sub-tropical zone and 17% in
Drivers of deforestation 18 Drivers of deforestation and forest degradation in Bhutan In Bhutan, there are a number of human activities or immediate actions that directly impact forest cover and loss of forest carbon. In order to consolidate the information in this report into a compact summary, this section combines the future driver projections into the driver summaries.
Allotment of State Reserve Forest Land (SRFL) for various purposes: According to Ministry of Agriculture and Forests statistics, a total of 12,674 ha of SRFL have been allotted for various
14 cool temperate zones. Deforestation largely occurred in forest areas outside existing management regimes (FAOEMR). However, 17% of deforestation occurred within protected areas.
Drivers of deforestation
In Bhutan, there are a number of human activities or immediate actions that directly impact forest cover and loss of forest carbon. In order to consolidate the information in this report into a compact summary, this section combines the future driver projections into the driver summaries.
Allotment of State Reserve Forest Land (SRFL) for various purposes: According to Ministry of Agriculture and Forests statistics, a total of 12,674 ha of SRFL have been allotted for various purposes between 2008 and 2014, translating into an annual average of 1,923 ha. Allotments for lease constitute slightly over half of all SRFL allotments between 2008- 2014, followed by allotments for satshab/ land substitution, government institutions, and other SRFL allotment, i.e., allotment for various unspecifed purposes. The statistics do not allow for differentiation between how much SRFL allotted had forest on it, and how much was not covered by forest. By defnition, SRFL is largely forest, but a forest may include a water body and/or non-vegetated land cover class. This driver has to be considered differently from the subsequent deforestation drivers since some categories of allotment (e.g. other SRFL allotment, land lease, etc.) most likely include land allotments for the drivers mentioned below, particularly agriculture. The allotment statistics for roads and transmission lines are specifcally excluded under this driver. Future trends/projections: Assuming the historical average of forest area lost due to all allotments between 2008- 2014, the average deforestation predicted to occur between now and 2030 due to RGoB allotments of SRFL for various purposes is roughly 28,800 ha.
Hydropower projects: About 99.5% of electricity in Bhutan is estimated to be generated from hydropower – with the remaining portion generated from diesel power. Roughly 75% of electricity generated in Bhutan is exported to India, and this is expected to increase given the hydropower sector development plans. Based on the hydropower projects developed so far 2,276 ha of forest were affected, which averages out to around 272 ha per hydropower project. Based on those estimates, 1 to 3 hectares of forest are lost for every megawatt (MW) generation capacity, or on average, 2 ha of forest for every MW generation capacity. Associated use of SRFL for transmission lines and road access related to hydropower development is related, and covered in the next two driver categories. Future trends/projections: Extrapolating into the future based on known development plans, and assuming an average of 2 ha of deforestation for every MW generation capacity developed, we estimate that 18,380 MW may generally impact about 39,760 hectares of forest, or an annual average of 1,880 ha. Actual impacts will vary based on hydropower development plans.
Roads: About 5,770 ha of SRFL was allotted to road construction between 2008-2014, or an annual average of 820 ha. The density of roads has been estimated to have doubled from about 1.5 km/km² in 2005 to 3 km/km² in 2011. Future trends/projections: Assuming the average forest area lost due to road construction in the period 2008-2014, the average deforestation due to roads is predicted to be about 4,100 ha between now and 2020, and up to 12,300 ha by 2030. It is important to note that increased road development in remote and forested areas may increase access for illegal resource extraction.
Drivers of deforestation and forest degradation in Bhutan 19 Agriculture: The spatial analysis of this study showed that a total of 36,298 ha were converted to agriculture between 2000-2015. This conversion can be further classifed into Chhuzhing (wet land agriculture) – 8,303 ha; Kamzhing (dry land) – 25,690 ha; and Orchards – 2,304 ha. 86% of this conversion was located within the tropical and temperate AEZs of this study. During the same time, 24,631 ha have been converted from agriculture back to forests. This results in a net loss of 11,667 ha of forests to agriculture, or 778 ha annually. Future trends/projections: Assuming the average forest area lost due to conversion to agriculture assessed with the spatial analysis 2000- deforestation2015 (as well would as taking be predicted into account at about the 3,890 area ha converted between now back and to 2020, forests), and theup to average 11,670 hadeforestation by 2030. Agricultural would be projection predicted is changing, at about given 3,890 increasing ha between interest now in leasingand 2020, for cardamom and up to 11,670 ha by 2030. Agricultural projection is changing, given increasing interest and other uses. But there are also increasing concerns over urbanization spreading into paddy in leasing for cardamom and other uses. But there are also increasing concerns over lands, given their suitability for development with so few flat areas in the country. urbanization spreading into paddy lands, given their suitability for development with so few fat areas in the country. ines and uarries: Roughly 3,800 ha were leased for mining between 2008-2014. Future trends pro e tionsMines and quarries:: Assuming Roughly an average 3,800 ha annual were forest leased area for loss mining of 633 between ha due to 2008-2014. mines and uarriesFuture in trends/projections: the period 2008-2014, Assuming the average an deforestation average annual would forest be predicted area loss at about of 633 3,165 ha hadue between to mines now and and quarries 2020, and in upthe to period 9,495 ha2008-2014, by 2030. Mining the average is one ofdeforestation the fastest growing would industriesbe predicted of the at country about (revenues3,165 ha inbetween mining andnow uarrying and 2020, increased and up 20.86% to 9,495 in 2014 ha comparedby 2030. toMining the year is one before) of the and fastest mining growing is a strong industries priority of for the the country government (revenues to pursue in mining economic and development.quarrying increased 20.86% in 2014 compared to the year before) and mining is a strong priority for the government to pursue economic development. o er lines: A total of 3,791ha of forest were lost to make way for power lines between 2008- Power lines: A total of 3,791ha of forest were lost to make way for power lines between 2014, which converts to an annual average of 542 ha. Future trends pro e tions: Historical 2008-2014, which converts to an annual average of 542 ha. Future trends/projections: statisticsHistorical indicate statistics that SRFL indicate allotted that to SRFLthis driver allotted declined to thisin the driver 2008-2014 declined period, in though the 2008- this does2014 not period, correspond though to thisthe impactdoes not expected correspond to result to fromthe impactincreasing expected number toof resulthydropower from projectsincreasing being number developed of hydropower in the country. projects Assuming being developed the average in the forest country. area lost Assuming due to constructionthe average forest of power area lines lost indue the to periodconstruction 2008-2014, of power the averagelines in the deforestation period 2008-2014, would be predictedthe average at about deforestation 2,710 ha between would now be predicted and 2020, and at about up to 8,130 2,710 ha haby 2030. between now and 2020, and up to 8,130 ha by 2030. The table below summarizes and compares the statistical records of forest loss attributed to the differentThe table drivers below identified summarizes above against and the compares spatial analysis the statistical of forest loss. records Figures of are forest presented loss asattributed an annual to average the different area of deforestation.drivers identifed above against the spatial analysis of forest loss. Figures are presented as an annual average area of deforestation. a e statisti a re ords of deforestation attri ted to t e different drivers Table: statistical records of deforestation 2000-2015 attributed to the different drivers
The total annual deforestation of the statistical records of all drivers is 5,798 ha compared to 4,274 ha of total annual deforestation based on the spatial analysis. Taking into account that the Drivers of deforestation and forest degradation in Bhutan driver20 allotment for various purposes significantly overlaps with the annual deforestation areas in particular for agriculture and hydropower, the comparison of spatial and statistical records of forest loss is well aligned.
16 The total annual deforestation of the statistical records of all drivers is 5,798 ha compared to 4,274 ha of total annual deforestation based on the spatial analysis. Taking into account that the driver ‘allotment for various purposes’ signifcantly overlaps with the annual deforestation areas in particular for agriculture and hydropower, the comparison of spatial and statistical records of forest loss is well aligned.
The ranking ranking of drivers of drivers of deforestation of deforestation is presented is presented below, based below, on basedthe extent on theof forest extent areas of estimatedforest areas to beestimated affected annuallyto be affected by the driversannually which by werethe drivers identified which in the were previous identifed table. inIn addition,the previous the annual table. H In addition, emissions the are annual estimated GHG based emissions on the areaverage estimated carbon based stock densityon the estimatedaverage carbon in this study.stock density estimated in this study.
604,852 591,327 257,919 199,101 170,478
Stakeholder consultation consultation workshops workshops were were organized organized for the for three the differentthree different regions regionsin Bhutan, in i.e.Bhutan, South entral,i.e. South East Central, and est. East Representatives and West. Representatives from different sectors from different were invited sectors from wereeach regioninvited to from identify each and region rank their to identifyregional drivers and rank of deforestation their regional and driversdegradation. of deforestation Stakeholders rankedand degradation. the o 1 direct Stakeholders driver of deforestation ranked the asNo roads, 1 direct followed driver by of hydropower deforestation projects, as roads, and powerfollowed lines. by The hydropower allotment of projects, SRF land, andidentified power as olines. 1 driver The inallotment this study, of is rankedSRFL, onlyidentifed fourth as No 1 driver in this study, is ranked only fourth by the stakeholders. Assessing the by the stakeholders. Assessing the ranking of the same drivers in the future, however, identified ranking of the same drivers in the future, however, identifed allotment of SRFL as allotment of SRFL land as well as agriculture as the highest ranking drivers. This was justified by well as agriculture as the highest ranking drivers. This was justifed by the future thedevelopment future development of commercial of commercial agriculture agriculture leading leading to higher to higher risk riskof deforestation. of deforestation.
es tsResults -forest forest de radation degradation
InIn contrast contrast to tothe the results results from fromdeforestation deforestation in Bhutan in which Bhutan shows which a forest shows cover a forestincrease, cover the findingsincrease, of this the degradation fndings of study this suggest degradation that forest study degradation suggest is thatoccurring forest to some degradation extent. singis occurring crown cover to some changes extent. as the Using proxy crownindicator cover for degradation, changes as 667,680 the proxy ha of indicator forests have for beendegradation, degraded 667,680 (crown cover ha of decrease) forests inhave the been15-year degraded assessment (crown period cover while decrease) 456,794 ha in have the improved15-year assessment(crown cover periodincrease). while 32% 456,794 of the area ha identified have improved as degrading (crown saw covercrown increase).cover shift from32% of dense the toarea medium identifed dense as forests.degrading 42% saw and crown 27% of cover the forestshift from area dense under degradationto medium representdense forests. degradation 42% and from 27% medium-dense of the forest area to open under and degradation dense to open represent forests degradation respectively. from medium-dense to open and dense to open forests respectively. However, the share However, the share of dense forests remains remarkably high and is more than 50% of the total of dense forests remains remarkably high and is more than 50% of the total forest area. forestSignifcant area. Significantchanges havechanges taken have place taken inplace the in other the other two twocrown crown cover cover classes. classes. The The areaarea under medium medium dense dense forests forests (30-50% (30-50% crown crown cover) cover)has decreased has decreased from 40% from in 2000 40% to onlyin 2000 26% into 2015only while26% thein 2015open, whiledegraded the forestopen, class degraded (10-30% forest crown class cover) (10-30% has increased crown from cover) 10% has to asincreased much as from 24% 10% in 2015. to as District-level much as degradation24% in 2015. patterns District-level vary significantly. degradation enerally patterns the majorityvary signifcantly. of districts flagged Generally with the degradation majority from of districts dense to fagged open forests with degradation are located in from the southern tropical or warm temperate zones dominated by broadleaf forests. The following maps summarize the ualitative change of forests in Bhutan. Drivers of deforestation and forest degradation in Bhutan 21
17 dense to open forests are located in the southern tropical or warm temperate zones dominated by broadleaf forests.
The following maps summarize the qualitative change of forests in Bhutan.
Figure: ForestFigure: degradation Forest and degradationimprovement 2000-2015 and improvement 2000-2015
Findings indicate that 34% of the total degradation occurred in altitudes ranging from 2000-3000 Findings indicatemeters, 31% thatin areas 34% above of3,000 the meters, total 17% degradationwithin zones between occurred 1,000 and in2,000 altitudes meters, ranging from 2000-3000and 19% of meters, degradation 31% occurred in areasin forest aboveareas below 3,000 1,000 meters.meters, Degradation 17% within is fairly evenlyzones between 1,000 anddistributed 2,000 meters, across various and slope 19% gradients. of degradation 32% of forest degradation occurred occurred in forest in areas areas beyond below 5 1,000 meters. Degradationkm of the nearest is road, fairly 28% evenlywithin 2-5 distributed km of a road, 14% across within 1-2 various km, and 25% slope of degradation gradients. 32% of less than 1 km from the nearest road. 50% of forest degradation occurred more than 2 km from forest degradationsettlements, occurredwhile 33% of degradationin areas occurredbeyond within 5 km 1 km of of athe settlement. nearest 66% road, of degradation 28% within 2-5 km of a road,occurred 14% within within the temperate 1-2 km, zones, and 17% 25% in the of tropical/sub-tropical degradation in zone, less and than 19% in 1 cool km from the nearest road.temperate 50% zones. of forest degradation occurred more than 2 km from settlements, while 33% of degradation occurred within 1 km of a settlement. 66% of degradation Degradation patterns vary according to the different forest management regimes in Bhutan. occurred withinFindings indicatethe temperate that ost of zones,t e de radation 17% ino rred the tropical/sub-tropical in forest areas o tside of t e zone,ot er and 19% in cool temperate ana e ent zones. re i es in arti ar t e de radation fro edi dense and dense forest to o en forest onditions is si nifi ant. Also, of t e tota forest de radation Degradationo rred patterns it in forest vary areas according in rote ted areas to ( As). the This different could be attributed forest to management the rural timber regimes in Bhutan.entitlements Findings to the indicate community that residing most within of the the protected degradation areas. In protected occurred areas, in forest degradation of the dense to medium dense forests occurred along with an improvement from areas outsideopen to of medium the denseexisting forests. management regimes (FAOEMR), in particular the degradation from medium dense and dense forest to open forest conditions is signifcant. Also, 40% of the total forest degradation occurred within forest areas in protected areas (PAs). This could be attributed to the rural timber entitlements to the community residing within the protected18 areas. In protected areas, degradation of the dense to medium dense forests occurred along with an improvement from open to medium dense forests.
22% of forest within FMU areas experienced degradation with the forest cover changing from dense to medium dense. However, this opening of the forest cover most likely is a result of the logging activities using group felling and cable yarding systems and must
22 Drivers of deforestation and forest degradation in Bhutan not be considered as degradation as the harvesting is planned and executed along principles of sustainable forest management (AAC). These degraded areas in FMUs should recoup during the stages of the working cycle and regain canopy closure.
Community management areas showed a balance between degradation and improvement. Finally, all management regimes (e.g. FAOEMR, FMU, CF, PA) contain roughly 40% of persistent dense forest.
Drivers of forest degradation
Timber harvesting: National statistics indicate 72% of the timber extracted in the period between 2009 to 2015 has been supplied as subsidized timber, followed by commercial timber (27%), and Royalty free timber (1%). According to national statistics, the amount of timber (excluding frewood) extracted from the country’s forests between 2008- 2015 amounts to 1,127,059 m3 or an annual average of 161,008 m3 over the same period. These fgures do not include unauthorised/illegal extraction. This is equivalent to about 19% of the estimated sustainable annual yield in the country. There is no systematic evaluation of the impact of different types of timber allotments on forest degradation. However, it is estimated that only a small percentage (14%, including community forests) of forest area in the country is suitable for commercial timber production without compromising the principle of sustainable forest management. Future trends/projections: Predicted to continue to exert degradation pressure on the forests. Assuming the annual average of 161,008 m3, the impact on forests would be predicted at about 805,042 m3 between now and 2020, and up to 2,415,125 m3 by 2030. The concentration of timber extraction in the few feasible areas might result in further forest degradation.
Firewood: Firewood accounted for 90% of Bhutan’s energy demand in 2005 (MoEA, 2016), and yet the effciency of frewood devices is only 10%–15%. However, increasingly, other types of frewood consumers become signifcant such as residents in urban areas; institutions such as hotels, restaurants, schools, monasteries; industries; and agriculture. Removal of trees as frewood occurs within and outside of FMU areas. According to national statistics, the amount of frewood extracted and supplied between 2009 and 2015 amounted to 594,552 m3, or an annual average of 84,936 m3, which is equivalent to about 10% of the estimated sustainable annual yield. Our analysis estimated total frewood consumption on a per capita basis and fnds a much higher consumption rate. The total frewood consumption in 2014 was 637,231.66 tonnes (MoEA, 2016). Divided by the total population of Bhutan in 2014, 745,153 (NSB, 2014) the per capita frewood consumption was 855 kg / year. Using the weighted average wood density of 0.469 tonnes/m3 (FAO 2015), this calculates as 298,862 m3 for 2014. This estimate is about fve 3.5 times higher than the estimates of frewood extracted and supplied, which are reported in the national statistics. This difference should simply highlight the diffculty of reliably estimating actual frewood extraction. Considering this alternative estimate, frewood extraction would equal to about 35 % of the estimated sustainable annual yield in the country. These different estimates highlight the diffculty of reliably estimating actual frewood extraction. Future trends/ projections: Predicted to continue to exert a marginally reduced but still signifcant degradation pressure on the forests. Assuming the annual average of 84,936 m3, the impact on forests would be predicted at about 424,680 m3 between now and 2020, and up to 1,274,041 m3 by 2030.
Drivers of deforestation and forest degradation in Bhutan 23
estimates highlight the difficulty of reliably estimating actual firewood extraction. Future trends pro e tions: redicted to continue to exert a marginally reduced but still significant degradation pressure on the forests. Assuming the annual average of 84,936 m3, the impact on forests would be predicted at about 424,680 m3 between now and 2020, and up to 1,274,041 m3 by 2030.
Forest fires: Each year, significant forest areas burn in Bhutan. Between 2009 and 2014, 334 fire Forest fres: Each year, signifcant forest areas burn in Bhutan. Between 2009 and incidences were recorded in the country, affecting 43,817 ha of forest areas, or an annual average 2014, 334 fre incidences were recorded in the country, affecting 43,817 ha of forest areas,of 6,260 or ha. an Fires annual are more average prevalent of 6,260 in the ha. southern Fires are and more central prevalent regions, indue the to easternpine and andoak centralforests beingregions, more due associated to pine and with oak fire forests incidences. being moreFuture associated trends pro e tions with fre: incidences. Assuming a Futurecontinuation trends/projections: of previous trends, Assuming one could predict a continuation that between of now previous and 2030, trends, about one 93,800 could ha predictof forest that would between be subject now to andfire across2030, the about country. 93,800 ha of forest would be subject to fre across the country. Livesto : The impact of livestock grazing on forest degradation is localised, and varies from place Livestock:to place depending The impact on the of livestockforest types grazing and grazing on forest intensities. degradation razing is localised, is generally and acknowledged varies from placeto contribute to place to depending forest degradation, on the forest although types insufficientand grazing data intensities. exists to Grazing accurately is assessgenerally its acknowledgedimpact. ith a cattle to contribute population to of forest500,000, degradation, the grazing density although is about insuffcient 1 cow for data every exists 5 ha of to accuratelyforest. ompared assess with its impact.the estimated With acarrying cattle populationcapacity of 0.54of 500,000, Livestock the nits/ grazing ha in density epal for is abouttemperate 1 cow rangelands for every associated 5 ha of forest.with oak, Compared mixed broad with leaf, the or estimated blue pine forests,carrying the capacity estimated of 0.54grazing Livestock density Units/ in Bhutan ha in on Nepal a national for temperate level is rangelands well below associated levels leading with to oak, significant mixed broad leaf, or blue pine forests, the estimated grazing density in Bhutan on a national level degradation. However, there is anecdotal evidence that grazing can adversely impact is well below levels leading to signifcant degradation. However, there is anecdotal evidence regeneration in localized areas particularly following forest harvesting in FM s. Future that grazing can adversely impact regeneration in localized areas particularly following foresttrends pro e tions harvesting :in Decreasing FMUs. Future trends. trends/projections: Decreasing trends.
The table table below below summarizes summarizes and compares compares the statistical statistical records ofof forest forest degradation degradation attributed to to the the different different drivers drivers identified identifed above above against against the spatial the spatial analysis analysis of this study. of this In study.order to In compare order to degradation compare degradation given in m3 andgiven areas, in m all3 andareas areas, degraded all areas have beendegraded converted have beeninto corresponding converted into timber corresponding volumes in m 3volumes using an averagein m3 using degradation an average rate of degradation 7.4 m3 per ha rateand ofyear. 7.4 m3 per ha and year.
Table: a e a idationValidation of of t e the statisti a statistical re ords records it with s atia spatial res ts results for forest for de radationforest degradation Driver tatisti a re ords of atia ana sis of De radation in ann a de radation ann a de radation orres ondin a ear a ear ear
i er arvestin iven in m3 not available 161,008 ire ood iven in m3 not available 84,936 orest fires 6,260 ha not available 46,397 ivesto not available not available not available ota ann a de radation s atia ana sis 44,512 ha 329,911
Using sing the the weighted weighted average average degradation degradation rate, rate,the degradation the degradation based on based the spatial on the analysis spatial of analysis44,512 ha of of 44,512 forests haannually of forests amounts annually to 329,911 amounts m3 per to 329,911year. In comparison m3 per year. to this,In comparison the sum of toannual this, degradation the sum of of annual the drivers degradation in this study of totals the drivers292,342 inm 3this per year.study This totals results 292,342 in a gap m of3 per year. This results in a gap of an annual 37,569 m3, which might be a combination of unrecorded frewood, non-extracted timber for instance from transmission lines, as well as unquantifed degradation from 20livestock and pest and disease. It has to be noted, that these results are interpreted on a national level, and that degradation has to be further assessed on a regional (district) level.
The ranking of drivers of degradation is based on the extent of timber volumes estimated to be affected annually by each driver. In addition, the annual GHG emissions are estimated based on the average carbon stock density calculated in section 3.4 (Scenario 2, year 2000).
24 Drivers of deforestation and forest degradation in Bhutan
an annual 37,569 m3, which might be a combination of unrecorded firewood, non-extracted timber for instance from transmission lines, as well as un uantified degradation from livestock and pest and disease. It has to be noted, that these results are interpreted on a national level, and that degradation has to be further assessed on a regional (district) level.
The ranking of drivers of degradation is based on the extent of timber volumes estimated to be affected annually by each driver. In addition, the annual H emissions are estimated based on the average carbon stock density calculated in section 3.4 (Scenario 2, year 2000).
Table: a e an in Ranking of of drivers drivers of of forest forest de radation degradation Driver nn a nn a an in in e tent de radation in e issions as a res t of deforestation orres ondin of forest de radation a t e a Timber harvesting 163,009 117,394 1st Firewood 84,936 61,168 2nd Forest fires 111,969 88,560 3rd Livestock ot available ot available 4th
With ith regards regards to to the the assessment assessment of drivers of drivers of degradation of degradation during during the stakeholder the stakeholder consultation consultationworkshops, the workshops, ranking by the the ranking stakeholders by the isstakeholders similar to theis similar findings to of the this fndings study of timber this study; timber harvesting and frewood extraction are ranked highest. In addition, illegalharvesting logging and andfirewood livestock extraction were ranked are ranked relatively highest. high In byaddition, the stakeholders. illegal logging and livestock were ranked relatively high by the stakeholders. Carbon stock change estimates ar on sto an e esti ates Estimations of carbon stock changes were calculated based on the difference in carbon stockEstimations density of ofcarbon different stock forest changes types were and calculated crown cover based density, on the betweendifference 2000, in carbon 2010 stock anddensity 2015. of differentThe methodology forest types follows and IPCCcrown GPG cover guidance, density, withbetween the objective 2000, 2010 of providingand 2015. The at least Tier 2 results. This analysis evaluated two scenarios to estimate carbon stock changesmethodology in the follows forest I between guidance, 2000 and with 2015. the Scenarioobjective 1of derivedproviding stocking at least volumesTier 2 results. fromThis analysis a database evaluated compiled two from scenarios FMU tomanagement estimate carbon plans. stock Scenario changes 2 uses in the signifcantly forest between higher2000 and stocking 2015. Scenariovolumes 1from derived the NFI stocking for each volumes of the from forest a databasestrata which compiled results from in FM overallmanagement higher plans. total Scenariocarbon budgets 2 uses significantly within the higherforest areasstocking of volumesBhutan. fromBoth the scenarios FI for each usedof the reported forest strata stocking which volumes results in in overall the FAO higher FRA total 2015 carbon country budgets report within for Bhutanthe forest as areas a of benchmark.Bhutan. Both Usingscenarios the usedLFI data reported and stockingsoil carbon volumes data, in carbon the FAO stocks FRA 2015and changescountry report will for againBhutan be as estimated a benchmark. as part Findings: of the FREL process and published in near future. Findings: Scenario 1 results indicate that the total carbon budget within the forest areas of Bhutan • Scenariohas decreased 1 results from indicate 841 millionthat the t O total2 to carbon836 million budget t O within2 which the results forest in areasa decrease of of Bhutan4,432,012 has decreased t O2 for the from 15-year 841 million period. tCO2The average to 836 annualmillion decrease tCO2 which amounts results to 295,467in a decreaset O2/year of 4,432,012which is remarkably tCO2 for similarthe 15-year to the period.sum of totalThe averageannual degradation annual decrease in t O 2 per amountsyear of to the 295,467 degradation tCO2/year drivers which (295,544 is remarkablyt O2, see Table similar above). to theIn terms sum ofof thetotal carbon annualdensity degradation of tree biomass in tCO2 (above per yearand below of the ground degradation biomass) drivers the area (295,544 weighted tCO2, carbon see Table above). In terms of the carbon density of tree biomass (above and below stock densities decreased from over 306 t O2/ ha in 2000 to 296 t O2/ ha in 2015. This ground biomass) the area weighted carbon stock densities decreased from over 306 represents a reduction of 0.7 t O2 per ha per year. tCO2/ ha in 2000 to 296 tCO2/ ha in 2015. This represents a reduction of 0.7 tCO2 per ha per year. • Scenario 2 results indicate overall higher total carbon budgets within the forest areas of Bhutan. Nevertheless, the carbon budget21 has decreased from 1,052 million tCO2 to 1,039 million tCO2 which results in a decrease of 13,889,641 tCO2 for the 15-year period. The average annual decrease in this scenario amounts to 925,976 tCO2/ year. Again comparing total annual degradation in tCO2 per year of the degradation drivers, a huge gap is identifed according to this scenario as a result of the signifcant higher carbon stock densities and consequently higher stock changes. The area weighted carbon stock densities decreased from over 386 tCO2/ ha in 2000 to 370 tCO2/ ha in 2015. This represents a reduction of 1.1 tCO2 per ha per year.
Drivers of deforestation and forest degradation in Bhutan 25 As a comparison, the Tier 1 IPCC approach results in a total of 1,102 Million tCO2 for the year 2000, which reduces to 1,082 Million tCO2 in 2015. This corresponds to a reduction of 0.05 tCO2 per ha per year.
This analysis confrms the overall fndings of this study that the total forest area has increased, while the quality of forest has decreased, which results in lower carbon densities as well as in decrease of the total forest carbon budget.
2. Actors, motivations and underlying drivers
Twenty-six actors play a role in or have a stake in Bhutan’s deforestation and forest degradation. These actors are explored to identify their motivations and where opportunities may reside for positive engagement towards REDD+ activities. In defning policies and measures to address driver pressure, consideration will need to be given to how PAMs shift the motivations of actors and infuence land use behaviour.
Through expert/stakeholder interviews, and the literature review, underlying drivers were identifed in the topical areas of governance challenges and law enforcement; economic, social poverty and tenure aspects; and demographic factors.
Governance challenges and law enforcement
Land allotment decisions for various uses (e.g., agriculture, hydropower, transmission lines, and roads), are made at project levels, with input from line ministries and approval by local government, but lacking guidance by policy, decision-criteria, and spatially-explicit sector master plans to guide decisions, particularly when there are potential trade-offs. Decisions occur in a piecemeal manner, without the long-term national spatial planning policy. Numerous interviewees noted the scientifc and technological limitations in these decision-making processes. Sectoral confict appears to come from the Land Act defning the mode of decision making on land use, allowing for subdivision and leasing, without all the guidance that decision- makers feel is necessary. There are sector guidelines (such as the Forest and Nature Conservation Rules and Regulations of 2017), which support evaluation, but these are sector-based and do not provide a means to harmonise or align, or mitigate conficts between sectors. Though information sharing mechanisms are not streamlined, which makes information access diffcult, there is a willingness for more integrated planning and decision-making, if such information were available. While Environmental Impact Assessments (EIAs) are consistently applied, they sometimes occur after a major infrastructure agreement is already made, thus their utility in these cases is to mitigate affects of a project, but not evaluate systematic impacts (such as throughout a watershed). EIAs cannot be expected to replace sector policies, plans and guidelines.
Implications of expanding hydropower: Expansion of hydropower facilities will have increasing impacts on forests due to facility siting and related infrastructure. Government is trying to address forest loss due to hydropower projects by requiring compensatory plantations to be established, which will now be managed by the Green Bhutan Corporation, formed in 2017, in collaboration with DoFPS and local government. Government is also addressing the forest loss through establishment of a plough-back mechanism of 1% of royalties, to be paid to MoAF on an annual basis for sustainable management of watersheds, although this is yet to be operationalised.
26 Drivers of deforestation and forest degradation in Bhutan There are plans for 18,380 MW of hydropower to be developed. The prioritization of hydropower development as the primary source of foreign exchange and economic development is clear. However, the fnancial commitment associated with hydropower expansion is a potent underlying driver that will put pressure on the country’s forests.
Capacity constraints appear to occur on a range of levels. Interviews with DoFPS indicate that capacity in numbers of staff is adequate, but the enrichment of knowledge and capacity to implement policies on the ground are needed. Despite the existence of policies, effective management plans are lacking. Law enforcement and stemming illegal activity is an increasing challenge, though the majority of the forest offences appear to be small-scale and opportunistic.
Rural subsidized timber allotment: The overall resource base of forests in Bhutan for producing good quality construction timber is limited given the large extent of protected areas, the remote location and steep mountain terrain of many of the forest areas. Basically, only around 14% of the total forest area is considered capable of producing commercial timber. The amount of timber required to meet the allotment changes from year to year. There was a spike in 2015, but generally subsidised timber allotment accounts for 72% of overall timber harvested. The Rural Subsidised Timber Policy is increasingly viewed by interviewees as requiring a redesign. Housing requirements have changed as building materials are shifting away from reliance on wood, houses do not need to be repaired and rebuilt as often, and more people are living in suburban and urban areas than before. Further, the concept of entitlement is based on demand from benefciaries, not what the forest can sustainably provide, and acts as a disincentive for local people to steward the forest around them. There is also concern that the entitlement competes with community forestry, which is a local forest governance approach that relies on local community management. The present allotment system has many loopholes that provide opportunities for diverting the rural subsidized timber to urban markets, basically relabeling it as commercial timber. This is incentivized by the price difference between the rural and commercial timber which has widened. Though changes to the Forest and Nature Conservation Rules and Regulations (2017) address the corrupt and illegal activity identifed by the Anti-Corruption Commission in 2009, it does not comprise a redesign of the policy itself. However, one important change is that the allotments will be made on a volume basis, rather than a standing tree basis. There will need to be increased capacity to implement the proposed changes.
Climate change is not yet fully mainstreamed into development planning: There is clear recognition that climate change is having an impact on Bhutan’s forests, and government is undertaking a range of actions. The policy and arrangements to address climate aspects are not refned yet, though the RNR Sector Adaptation Plan of Action 2016 provides an updated view on potential impacts and adaptation strategies. The INDC submitted to the UNFCCC notes that the priority mitigation and adaptation actions within the INDC will be considered and integrated in the preparation of the 12th Five Year Development Plan (2018-2023). There is a strong need to bring both biodiversity conservation and the management of forests as carbon sinks into the Forest Act. There is also a need to deliver on the enrichment of knowledge and capacity development on climate impacts, mitigation and adaptation all the way to the village level.
Drivers of deforestation and forest degradation in Bhutan 27 Economic, social, poverty and tenure aspects
The cycle of poverty in some regions and rural areas (and perhaps increasingly urban areas, too) in Bhutan is a noted underlying driver that is interconnected to land degradation and food security. Bhutan’s poverty reduction in the last decade has been rapid, broad-based, and inclusive. Between 2007 and 2012, the poverty rate halved and Bhutan has almost ended extreme poverty. That said, the pressures to degrade forests are strong, both for economic and practical reasons.
Demographic factors:
By 2030, 50% of Bhutanese will be urban, according to UN population statistics. The Department of Agriculture has observed migration from the East and Central areas to Western areas, with farm abandonment occurring in areas experiencing outmigration, especially in economically depressed areas where people are not able to produce enough food on their farms. Many of the abandoned farmlands are former slash-and-burn cultivation lands, some of which are reverting back to shrubland (and then forest). Human wildlife confict has also increased due in part to improving wildlife habitat close to agricultural lands which are increasingly being abandoned in certain areas. Nomadic herding is on the decline, and reduced grazing has resulted in the juniper forest expanding into old grazing lands, thereby increasing woody biomass.
Due to the Land Act of 2007 and resultant land reforms, issues related to forest land tenure and customary use rights (besides tsamdro and tseri use) were not identifed in the expert interviews as key underlying drivers. Addressing changes to tenure arrangements to support REDD+ objectives and goals is therefore not a priority.
3. Opportunities for ‘+’ activities
Bhutan has over 50% of its land area dedicated as protected areas, and other forest defned as Forest Management Units, Working Schemes, Local Forest Management areas, Community Forests, and there are also Watershed Management Plans and Wetland Management Plans. But within all of these areas, more attention could be paid to defning protection for high carbon stock/high conservation value forest, areas suitable for sustainable management, areas suitable for forest loss (or clearing , and areas suitable for increasing forest cover and carbon enhancement. For example, steep, ecologically sensitive areas could be dedicated to protection to conserve carbon stocks, while afforestation, reforestation and enrichment planting could be promoted in degraded and barren areas. The intensifcation of sustainable management for timber and NWFPs would be suitable in forests with higher production potential. Improved management in FAOEMR is recommended, as these are outside planned management regimes, and yet supply the bulk of the timber supply.
If the evaluation of the success of Community Forestry shifts from the number created to the impacts of CF management, this will improve stewardship, and likely carbon stocks.
Bhutan should also maintain its wood imports, including various products, in order to maintain or increase its forest carbon stocks and protect the biodiversity of its forests. One recent study found that prior to 2009, Bhutan’s domestic wood product (excluding
28 Drivers of deforestation and forest degradation in Bhutan frewood) demand was largely met by domestic supplies. However, after 2009, urban demand greatly outstripped supply, and imports increased, the majority of which was wood charcoal by 2011. Bhutan has imported increasing quantities of wood charcoal from India to process calcium carbide and ferrosilicon, which is then exported to India.
4. Regulatory and policy framework
Overarching policy and legislation: The basis for Bhutan’s strong commitment to its forests stems from the Constitution of the Kingdom of Bhutan, mandating a minimum of 60% forest cover, and directing every Bhutanese person, as a trustee of the Kingdom’s natural resources, to contribute to the protection of the natural environment, conservation of the rich biodiversity of Bhutan. The Gross National Happiness measure the aspects of life beyond material well-being, and includes the environment as a pillar, though there is a need for a better set of indicators to measure the health of the forest ecosystem, including a robust information management system. The National Environmental Strategy, “the Middle Path,” which sought to develop the economy while still maintaining the country’s rich cultural heritage, traditional values, and natural resource base, and the Bhutan 2020 blueprint for development continue to be relevant today. The National Environmental Protection Act of Bhutan 2007 does not mention climate change explicitly, but the overarching framework implicitly encompasses considerations for addressing forest degradation. The Environmental Assessment Act of Bhutan 2000 serves its purpose, though focuses on project-level proposals, and does not provide guidance on how to address multiple projects proposed in water catchments, for example.
Land: The preeminent law guiding land use is the Land Act of 2007. The Act defnes the mode of decision making on land use, allowing for subdivision and leasing, and provides procedural guidance, but criteria for evaluating allotments or leases of SRFL sits with each sector. Thus, the Land Act does not provide policy or planning guidance to help reconcile trade-offs between sector goals. The Local Government Act of 2009 promotes decentralized governance and defnes the roles of Dzongkhag and Gewog level government in decisions. Local governments will beneft from having national perspectives and guidance based on national-level plans and zoning. The new Economic Development Policy (June 2016) identifed these gaps and defnes that the NLC should carry out zoning to outline optimal land use, SRFL should be allotted for strategic business activities, and indicates that a range of Acts should be reviewed and revised, including the Land Act, the National Environment Protection Act, and the Local Government Act.
Forestry: The 2011 National Forest Policy defnes the overarching goal of sustainable management of forest resources and biodiversity. The Forest and Nature Conservation Act 1995 is the primary means of defning appropriate forest uses, and enabled community forestry and social forestry. It has separate chapters on soil conservation, community forestry, protected areas and protection of wildlife. The Forest and Nature Conservation Rules and Regulations 2017 operationalise the Forest and Nature Conservation Act. They cover general aspects of managing State Reserved Forest Land (SRFL) as well as detailed management prescriptions for different categories of SRFL including Forest Management Units, Community Forests, Protected Areas and watersheds. They contain provisions for a plough-back mechanism of 1% of royalties from hydropower development, and the provision of funds for compensatory plantations
Drivers of deforestation and forest degradation in Bhutan 29 to offset the impacts of mega-projects and development projects.
Community and social forestry: The Forest and Nature Conservation Act 1995 provided the legal basis for community forests, and the 2016 revisions to the Forest and Nature Conservation Rules maintain the commitment to allow designation of SRFL for community management. The Land Act of Bhutan 2007 also affects community forestry. The Local Government Act 2009 appoints the Gewog Tshogde as custodian of community land and forests. This act and the Local Government Rules and Regulations 2012 clarify the roles and responsibilities of local governments for local development and the interface with community forests.
Climate change: Climate adaptation and mitigation are clearly defned in Bhutan’s Intended Nationally Determined Contribution, submitted to the UNFCCC in 2015. The INDC identifes sustainable forest management goals for climate benefts, and the REDD+ National Strategy can further refne the mitigation components, if designed to do so. The INDC seeks to integrate priorities in the preparation of the 12th Five Year Development Plan (which begins in 2018) and subsequent fve-year plans. The Forest and Nature Conservation Act, 1995, and associated Forest and Nature Conservation Rules and Regulations of 2017 do not explicitly contain climate change priorities, though they can be inferred from other priorities such as watershed management. While the National Forest Policy of 2011 includes mention of climate mitigation and adaptation in the ‘production forest’ category, it does not provide coherent guidance to decision-makers and managers on how to bring climate change considerations into forest management.
Biodiversity: The Biodiversity Act of Bhutan, 2003 is the basis for defning biodiversity priorities. The National Biodiversity Strategies and Action Plan of Bhutan 2014 is a comprehensive document to guide decisions related to biodiversity protection. Two national targets are of most relevance for REDD+: National Target 5: stating that by 2018, high-biodiversity value habitats are mapped, the rate of loss is accounted, trends monitored and overall loss and fragmentation reduced, and; National Target 7: Areas under agriculture and forestry, including rangelands are managed through the adoption of sustainable management practices, ensuring conservation of biological diversity.
Water: A range of legislative frameworks for watershed management exist (Article 5 of the Constitution, Bhutan 2020, the National Forest Policy, Forest and Nature Conservation Act of 1995, the Land Act of 2007, Bhutan Water Vision 2025, Bhutan’s Water Policy of 2008 and Bhutan’s Water Act of 2010). A “Roadmap” for Watershed Management (2011) provides guidance for the implementation of strategies aimed at improving the management of the country’s watersheds. It included a strategy to focus watershed management planning initially on critical or degraded watersheds requiring urgent management interventions. This approach is codifed in the new FNCRR of 2017. The challenge for the future is to facilitate the implementation of “climate smart” watershed management plans in degraded watersheds.
5. Criteria to prioritize strategic options
This driver assessment takes stock of the historical and future drivers of deforestation and forest degradation in Bhutan, in order to provide a stronger sense of what policies
30 Drivers of deforestation and forest degradation in Bhutan and measures (PAMs) could be put in place today to anticipate pressures on the forest into the future. PAMs are a key part of a National REDD+ Strategy, and are the means by which countries address driver pressures from within and beyond the forestry sector.
This assessment explores a range of criteria and priorities to guide Bhutan’s consideration of what interventions can be adopted to shift the pressures on forests.
Bhutan is developing, becoming more urban and less rural and the country’s relationship to its forests is dynamic. Forest cover as a measure of forest health is not ft to the task, as degradation is clearly having larger impacts on the forest, its functions, and its biodiversity. Refreshing Bhutan’s vision and commitment to its forests inherently entails a contemporary view of forests and projections into the future, to defne interventions and actions that maintain the integrity of the forest, while allowing for future development that is compatible.
The National REDD+ Strategy should be the means to carry out the forest component of Bhutan’s INDC. The pillars and domains of Gross National Happiness can help guide the direction for REDD+ to underpin and implement these values and goals. Bhutan should likely also flter PAM options against its objectives being developed for the 12th Five-Year Plan. The 12th Five-Year Plan may be a suitable vehicle in which to position cross-sectoral strategies, and these should also be refected in amended sector plans or guidelines as much as possible.
A key methodological step in evaluating PAM options is to consider what counter- measures to address drivers are already in place, those that are in place but could be improved, and those that might have been identifed already but not yet implemented.
Based on the direct and underlying drivers identifed in this report, key observations to guide assessment of PAM selection criteria include: 1. Degradation should be prioritized over deforestation, as forest cover is slightly increasing, while the forest as a whole is degrading. Carbon stock assessment of the forest can be a proxy measurement of forest health, but clearly there are other values to be accounted for, including the rich species distribution of forest types, biodiversity values, watershed values, climate adaptation functions, cultural values and others. 2. The relative impact of the Subsidized Rural Timber Allotment Policy on the amount of timber harvested each year, and the inconsistency with principles of sustainable forest management, deserves a re-think that goes beyond amending the Forest and Nature Conservation Rules. 3. It is appropriate to acknowledge that future deforestation will happen, so it is advisable to prioritize the suitability of the loss of some forest areas under different scenarios which safeguard high conservation value and high carbon stock forests 4. Eco-regional distribution of forests is important, so evaluation of intervention options should make sure not to weight interventions for one forest-type at the expense of others. 5. Hydropower development and associated infrastructure development will have a
Drivers of deforestation and forest degradation in Bhutan 31 large impact on the forest. 6. Interventions that address trade-offs between sectors are important, and would address a current weakness in governance. A National Land Use Policy and spatial land use planning/zoning is an option to help this. Simply addressing needs from the forest sector perspective will not reconcile the conficting priorities between sectors. 7. The cultural signifcance of forests in Bhutan must not be overlooked, and the NWFPs and traditional uses of the forest are important parts of culture and livelihoods. 8. The adaptation benefts and values of forests are crucial, and yet integration of climate considerations into current forest management and planning is not clear. This presents a large opportunity.
6. Initial policy and measure responses to address drivers
This section provides a comprehensive table, which summarizes each driver of deforestation and forest degradation, it’s current and future projected impacts, what underlying drivers were identifed that affect the direct drivers, and what recommended interventions could address the driver pressure. These recommendations would be further reviewed and considered in the National REDD+ Strategy development process.
nder in drivers t at affe t ossi e initia o tions dire t driver De radation drivers ran
i er arvestin Subsidized rural timber based on 1. F RR 2017 has revised provisions for rural timber 3 About 161,008 m harvested entitlement may not be not sustainable: allotment, so it is unlikely there will be substantial annually There has been no assessment of what changes in the near-term. ey operational task given to 72% of timber harvest serves DoF S in the Economic Devo olicy of 2016 is section subsidized rural timber allotments the viable needs are for rural 7.6.16 which states the need to rationalize timber Future projection: Based on households (demand side) 3 subsidy to ensure optimal utilization of the timber historical trends, 805,042 m Entitlement has not allowed for an resources. eed to analyse the actual re uirement between now and 2020, and up to assessment of sustainable supply 3 rural timber, what the forest can supply and the gaps, 2,415,125 m by 2030. re uirements, and concept of and develop necessary analytics to inform the entitlement may be outdated and redesign. Identify how to correct pricing distortions does not serve the intended purpose ( RD L and rural timber). re-existing households now in 2. Related to illegal pressures, oversight of allotment, suburban areas still ualify as rural transit offenses, need to build capacity and strengthen Allotment policy skews the timber the ability of field level forest department staff (staff, pricing structure e uipment, knowledge, monitoring) Illegal timber trading based on subsidized 3. Develop an Indicator of Forest Health, for use by timber has been lucrative. The F RR H . 2017 states that surplus timber from rural 4. ommunity forestry: apacity-building, better house constructions can be sold upon planning, and SME development potential. Ensure F s payment of 25% of the existing R rate, are not also sourcing timber needs from allotment (it in order to legalise the usage of surplus rationalizes use and builds sustainability within their timber and to deter the black market. own systems, and makes it easier to monitor as wood ommunity forestry - success largely can only come from one source). hen establishing judged by s of Fs, not necessarily by Fs, ensure area and volume is appropriate to their improved management. needs. the majority of wood products (excluding 5. Manage forests to maintain high-carbon stocks in firewood) consumed in Bhutan was from prioritized FAOEMR, FM and F areas, while defining India, the majority of which was wood charcoal. This suggests Bhutan should
32 Drivers of deforestation and forest degradation in Bhutan
maintain its level of imports of wood other forest types as suitable to more intensified products from other countries to keep its production: natural forests (which are of high FAOEMR comprise the major source of timber ecological value), though evaluation of supply, are not as well-managed as FM s. impacts of sourcing wood products from Stratification of management objectives based other countries is recommended. on goal of increasing carbon stocks and high- FAOEMR are not as well managed as conservation-value forests (so that if forest FM s area decreases, carbon stocks still increase). RD L is the most important stakeholder Refinement of the Rapid Resource Assessment in the forest sector, however they are to provide more granularity on management operating under constraints (strong objectives for different forest ualities regulation, pricing, capacity building Manage based on forest carbon density and needs) other attributes FM management to always done by plan Afforestation and reforestation on barren and (subsidy policy pulls timber) degraded areas can be for economically There are underutilized species such as valuable species (commercial and export) or hardwoods, and efficiency of timber other purposes utilization and processing could be Enrichment planting within open forests, also improved enrichment planting as compensatory activity rather than complete new reforestation Develop web-based multiple use management information system (open-source MIS) supporting monitoring as well as planning and management of forest resources (possible for other land uses to be included). 6. apacity-building for DoF S to support F RR 2017 implementation, including at local levels, to calculate the 4000 cft limit or e uivalent for rural timber allotment per household. onduct further research to calculate how much cft is really needed for house construction- one and two storied. Monitoring, information, hardware components are also necessary. 7. Find ways to promote demand for lesser known broadleaf timber species. Develop regional forestry and timber supply chain clusters with the full range of 30 actors, from planning, production, processing, marketing, markets. The goal is improved supply chain development for prioritized new product lines (including promotion of value-addition). 9. To address illegal timber trade, stronger timber tracking and chain of custody verification. The new rules on chainsaw registration and licensing could be effective, but very hard to monitor. Increased road checks recently put in place.
ire ood ey for household heating, not only lantations for woodfuel on cleared or degraded About 84,936 m3 harvested cooking areas annually (av. 2008-2014), e ual to Is 90% of the residential sector s energy How to increase efficiency in woodfuel devices, about 35% of the timber harvest demand, yet efficiency of woodfuel while supplying an alternative source for household amount (is additional to) burning devices is only 10% 15%. heating Or focus on fuel-switching for cook Future projection: based on Is the cheapest source of fuel and allotted stoves pscaling of Min of Economic Affairs historical trends about 424,680 m3 cookstove project between now and 2020, and up to free of royalty in rural areas 1,274,041 m3 by 2030. In future, as long as electricity access eed to address the institutional and urban increases (and electricity prices are demand for firewood subsidized), households will switch fuels hanging entitlement system so that rural away from wood households don t depend on 2 trees, but use more lops and tops or salvage or scrap timber pscaling of bri uette-making
orest fires limate change impacts expected to overnment already sees this as a risk factor, and a Annual average: 6,260 ha increase fires forest fire strategy is in place, but inade uate Future projection: 93,800 ha Almost all fires are human induced capacity to effectively carry this out (field division between now and 2030 or either intentionally or unintentionally, levels). Training and awareness raising. 3 231,985 m between now and 2020, and agriculture appears to be an Increase volunteer firefighting at Dzongkhag level and up to 695,955 m3 by 2030.
31 Drivers of deforestation and forest degradation in Bhutan 33
important source (lemongrass distillation in East) ine forests more susceptible between ovember and April
ivesto 500,000 head nationally, though numbers Awareness that free-ranging of cattle has greater Average forest area affected are declining impacts on forests (carrying capacity assessments), annually: not available, on a Redistribution of Tsamdo leasing so far but interconnectedness of livestock and national level insignificant having positive impacts for pasture grasslands/forests is strong. More research and Future projection: Decreasing management and socio-economic awareness is needed to understand livestock trends. benefits browsing of regeneration after grazing (social and razing density is about 1 cow for every 5 institutional aspects). ha of forest. Encourage stall-feeding (intensification and ractice of nomadic herding is on the reduced grazing) decline
Deforestation drivers ran
ot ent of for vario s Decisions made without sufficient policy ursue concept of a ational Land se olicy find r oses and guidance, criteria to support where is best to house this. In order to increase or Average forest area affected decisions on use and locations, or spatially maintain carbon stocks, land use planning will help annually: 1,923 ha explicit long-term/master plans to identify land suitable for development while Total area estimated to be affected Land Act and is the key policy guide, and reducing deforestation/degradation pressures. by 2030: 28,845 ha F RR (2017), Interim uidelines on Must have high-level political engagement, as well Lease of RF Land for ommercial as technical component Agriculture of 2011, L Rules and hased process, with policy and zoning developing Regulations 2009, also apply. in tandem, but both need to be reinforcing of the olicy/planning guidance which does exist other. does not include robust assessment of oning should include suitability and carrying future challenges and needs, such as capacity considerations. increased urbanization or climate change Find how Land se lan can best enable compatible o clear mechanism yet to address decisions at Dzongkhag and ewog scales sectoral trade-offs (and devolving to local levels to sort trade-offs may not be best Based on Land se olicy, lan and zoning, can have way to handle) more detailed technical guidelines to inform Lack of zoning (DoF S is only 32 agency to allotment decisions. have done this, in forest areas falling within management regimes) Lack of info sharing between ministries
dro o er ro e ts The prioritization of hydropower ointly review hydropower expansion plans from a Average forest area affected development as the primary source of watershed and forest management perspective annually: 1,880 ha foreign exchange and economic (basin-wide), strengthen capacity to carry out such Total area estimated to be affected development is clear. The financial reviews and share information with relevant by 2030: commitment associated with hydropower agencies. Based on hydropower development expansion is a potent underlying driver Explore trans-boundary ES mechanisms aimed at plans 39,760 ha that will put pressure on the country s compensating upstream land managers in Bhutan Based on linear trend: 28,200 ha forests. for sustainably managing the landscape to produce EIAs have occurred after the mbrella high- uality water Agreement with India (not before) and reate a more refined assessment of ecosystem cumulative impacts of multiple projects valuation (water/forests) within large watersheds has not Account for timber harvested from hydropower systematically occurred and infrastructure development After the development clearance is given, roject proponent should report on the broader and the D R approved, and when it comes environmental impacts from hydropower to the operational level, then detailed development as a holistic package and not assessments are done (so aspect is piecemeal (basin-wide- including power mitigating impact of specific activities, transmission lines and roads). rather than evaluating whole project). DoF S needs to holisticly assess the broader environmental impacts from hydropower development
oads Linked to government commitment to onsider de-emphasizing roads as a AM reach every village by road critical for intervention, as road build-out is a large priority for rural access, and much investment has already
34 Drivers of deforestation and forest degradation in Bhutan33 1. Overview and context
Bhutan has a rich cultural diversity and intact natural environment that are closely intertwined. Forests are the cornerstone of Bhutan’s commitment to remain carbon neutral, implement low emission development strategies, and maintain 60% forest cover over its land area, as enshrined in the Constitution of the Kingdom of Bhutan. Article 5 of the Constitution refects the commitment to secure ecologically balanced sustainable development while promoting justifable socio-economic development.
With 71% of Bhutan’s land area under forest cover, forests dominate in all ecosystem types and across the country’s varied geographies. More than half of the country (51.40%) is comprised of protected areas made up of the fve national parks, four wildlife sanctuaries, strict nature reserve and biological corridors (RGoB, 2016a). The value of Bhutan’s mountains and waters is appreciated far beyond its borders, as its forests contain the headwaters of many tributaries feeding the Brahmaputra River, home to at least 500 million people and part of the great Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna river complex.
The 11th Five Year Plan (2013- 2018) of Bhutan is developed on the concept of a ‘green’ plan creating a ‘green’ mind-set and attitude in order to prioritize environment management and reduction of greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) and pollution (RGoB, 2016a).
Bhutan declared to remain carbon neutral at the 15th Conference of Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in 2009 in Copenhagen, Denmark. In addition, the Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC) submitted in September 2015 towards fnalization of the Paris Agreement further re-iterated Bhutan’s pledge to remain carbon neutral (RGoB, 2016a). Bhutan’s INDC emphasizes the importance of adaptation and mitigation, given future climate change impacts to its mountain ecosystems.
The Department of Forests & Park Services (DoFPS) is implementing three programs in the 11th Five Year Plan: 1. Sustainable Management of State Reserve Forests (SRFL) 2. Sustainable management of forest landscapes and conservation of biodiversity 3. Integrated watershed management to ensure sustainable environmental service delivery
REDD+ activities cut across all three programs of DoFPS and are explicitly mentioned in program 3 under output 1, which is titled “REDD+ Readiness activities initiated to implement climate change adaptation in watersheds.”
At the COP 16 in 2010, Bhutan decided to adopt a phased program of implementing REDD+ in securing its ecological and economic benefts. In 2011, Bhutan was approved as a member of the UN-REDD program and has been receiving limited fnancial support from UN-REDD under its Targeted Support program. Several national level workshops were started from 2010 and local level consultations in the following years at the (dzongkhags) and block (gewog) level. Since then, stakeholder consultations,
Drivers of deforestation and forest degradation in Bhutan 35 creation of the REDD+ Taskforce and Technical Working Groups, and Anti-Corruption analyses, and other REDD+ institutional arrangements for the Readiness Phase have been convened and undertaken (Royal Government of Bhutan, 2014). Bhutan entered into an agreement with the World Bank Forest Carbon Partnership Facility in 2015 to support the country’s readiness preparation activities.
To assist Bhutan in the transition from the REDD+ Readiness towards implementation, the creation of a National REDD+ Strategy will be pursued. The identifcation of drivers of deforestation and forest degradation is a critical component of the National REDD+ Strategy, but also to inform broader natural resources management and sustainable development planning. In the Cancún Agreements, developing countries are requested to address the drivers when developing and implementing their national strategies or action plans. Subsequent UNFCCC decisions affrm the complexities and importance of addressing the drivers, and encourage countries, international organizations and the private sector to continue working on this and share information via the UNFCCC web platform.
This analysis of the drivers of deforestation and forest degradation in Bhutan (the ‘driver analysis’), including barriers to sustainable management, conservation and enhancement of forests, can frame historical patterns as well as estimate future pressures on forests, based on projections for growth and development. In this way, the driver analysis should provide the basis for understanding what policies and measures can affect driver pressures into the future, at various scales, in order to guide growth and development that is compatible with Bhutan’s forest heritage.
The specifc objectives identifed for completion of this driver analysis were to: i. Thoroughly identify and analyse all critical (both direct and indirect/underlying) drivers and agents of deforestation and forest degradation, and assess the emissions contributed by each driver with reference to key forest types; ii. Identify the barriers (and agents) to forest conservation, forest enhancement and sustainable management, at the national and subnational level; iii. Identify and prioritize strategic options and key interventions (REDD+ policies and measures) to address these causes and barriers (including through cost analysis); iv. Evaluate the impact of drivers at all levels (local, regional, national), looking beyond the forest sector and in particular at sectors that impact on forests such as agriculture, energy, infrastructure and fast urbanization. Estimate the magnitude of current and potential future consumption of wood products (timber and fuel wood); v. Assess the potential for increased carbon removals through natural regeneration, forest conservation, sustainable forest management and afforestation and reforestation.
36 Drivers of deforestation and forest degradation in Bhutan The process of undertaking this study
Overview of Drivers study process: DD study started in June 2016 Bilateral discussions with stakeholders in June 2016 Collection of data Field visit to FMUs and other forest sites Stakeholder Consultation workshop for Central region in Zhemgang Mid-term report completed and reviewed by WMD and FRMD (GIS/RS experts) in October 2016 Draft DD report completed and reviewed by WMD and FRMD in November 2016 Consultation workshop for Eastern and South-central regions from November 28 to December 2, 2016 Bilateral consultations in December 5-8, 2016 Presentation to DoFPS on December 7, 2016 Consultations with local communities by Tarayana Foundation Consultation workshop for Western region on December 27-28, 2016 First Review writeshop on December 29-30,2016 Second Review writeshop on January 13 & 16, 2017 National Validation workshop in February 2017
2. Analytical framework
The analytical framework underpinning this study is based on the following understanding of drivers of deforestation and forest degradation (and plus activities), causal factors, and intervention options that the public and private sector can have in response:
First, the defnitions of deforestation and forest degradation are:
Deforestation is a process of clearing and converting forest land to another land use, such as for agriculture, mining, or development. In this regard, deforestation usually results in a change in land use. If the land is cleared of forest and then not maintained in the new land use, trees may grow back.
Forest degradation is understood as forest remaining predominantly forest, and not switched to a different land use, but the quality of the forest declines, and the carbon stocks of the forest are reduced. The drivers of deforestation and forest degradation are the rationales and activities that cause change to forests. They can be human induced or naturally-occurring. Drivers of deforestation and forest degradation are caused by:
Direct (proximate) causes: human activities or immediate actions that directly impact forest cover and loss of carbon. Examples include: Deforestation: commercial agriculture, subsistence agriculture, mining, infrastructure and urban expansion Forest degradation: logging, fres, livestock grazing in forest, frewood collection and charcoal production
Drivers of deforestation and forest degradation in Bhutan 37
The drivers of deforestation and forest degradation are the rationales and activities that cause change to forests. They can be human induced or naturally-occurring. Drivers of deforestation and forest degradation are caused by: Dire t ro i ate a ses: human activities or immediate actions that directly impact forest cover and loss of carbon. Examples include: eforestation commercial agriculture, subsistence agriculture, mining, infrastructure and urban expansion Forest de radation: logging, fires, livestock grazing in forest, firewood collection and charcoal production nder in indire t a ses: complex interactions of fundamental social, economic, political, cultural and technological processes - often distant from their area of impact. The relationship between underlying drivers and direct drivers is nuanced, and describes a set of interactions and motivations that drive decisions and behaviour in relation to forests (Figure 1 below).Underlying/indirect nderlying drivers causes: can be hardcomplex to identify,interactions but ofare fundamental crucial for understandingsocial, economic, what drivers variouspolitical, actors culturalto clear and or degrade technological forests. processes - often distant from their area of impact.
Source: Adapted and modifed from Geist and Lambin (2002)
Figure 1: Relationship between underlying and direct drivers of deforestation and forest degradation i reThe e ations i UNFCCC Conference et een of nder in the Parties haveand dire tagreed drivers through of various deforestation decisions and that forest drivers of deforestation and forest degradation are important, and developing countries de radationare encouraged to identify them (Decision 4/CP.15) and address drivers in their national strategies or action plans (Decision 1/CP:16), and ensure that the responses to drivers are adapted to national circumstances (Decision 15/CP.19). The text of the three decisions mentioned can be found below: The F Paragraph onference 1 of decision of 4/CP.15: the arties have agreed through various decisions that drivers of Requests developing country Parties, on the basis of work conducted on the deforestationmethodological and forest degradation issues set out are in important,decision 2/CP.13, and developing paragraphs countries 7 and 11, are to take encouraged to identify themthe (Decision following guidance4/ .15) intoand accountaddress fordrivers activities in their relating national to decision strategies 2/CP.13, or action plans and without prejudging any further relevant decisions of the Conference of the Parties, in particular those relating to measurement and reporting: (a) To identify drivers of deforestation and forest degradation resulting in emissions and also the means to address39 these;
Paragraph 72 of decision 1/CP.16: Also requests developing country Parties, when developing and implementing their national strategies or action plans, to address, inter alia, drivers of deforestation and forest degradation, land tenure issues, forest governance issues, gender considerations and the safeguards identifed in paragraph 2 of annex I to this decision, ensuring the full and effective participation of relevant stakeholders, inter alia, indigenous peoples and local communities;
Warsaw Framework decision on drivers (15/CP.19):
38 Drivers of deforestation and forest degradation in Bhutan Also noting that livelihoods may be dependent on activities related to drivers of deforestation and forest degradation and that addressing these drivers may have an economic cost and implications for domestic resources, 1. Reaffrms the importance of addressing drivers of deforestation and forest degradation in the context of the development and implementation of national strategies and action plans by developing country Parties, as referred to in decision 1/CP.16, paragraphs 72 and 76; 2. Recognizes that drivers of deforestation and forest degradation have many causes, and that actions to address these drivers are unique to countries’ national circumstances, capacities and capabilities.
Drivers of deforestation and forest degradation occur at all scales (global to local), and thus strategies to address drivers can occur at all scales. As this is a national study, the focus is primarily on national level interventions (policies and measures) that affect deforestation and degradation drivers. Interventions at international and local scales are also important in affecting drivers, and need to be considered when developing response options, and assessment of where interventions can best infuence key actors should be considered. Defning what actions can best affect driver behaviour at the most appropriate scale is an important consideration by policy and decision-makers. Figure 2 provides a conceptual framework for how REDD+ driver interventions and actors relate at different scales. Enabling factors such as effective information systems to guide decisions, policies, institutional capacity, transparency and accountability, consultationpolitical will, with and stakeholders consultation underpin with stakeholders any strategy underpin to affect any strategydrivers. For to affect REDD to be successful,drivers. For incentives, REDD+ to be disincentives successful, andincentives, enabling disincentives measures and will enabling need to measures reach the actors will need to reach the actors responsible for addressing the drivers of deforestation and responsibleforest degradation for addressing for shifting the landdrivers use. of These deforestation actors span and all forest scales, degradation from international for shifting land use.commodity These actors buyers span to forest-dependent all scales, from communities. international commodity buyers to forest-dependent communities. Source: Kissinger et al., 2012
i re DD driverFigure interventions 2: REDD+ driver a tors interventions, and s a es actors and scales
et al Drivers of deforestation and forest degradation in Bhutan 39 At the very heart of this study resides an intention to provide solid and reliable information to help inform decisions on interventions on the country s forests to guide Bhutan s future development options while maintaining its social and natural capital.
A land use/cover change analyses (L L ) was undertaken for Bhutan based on existing maps as well as on a new classification for the year 2015 in close cooperation with the ongoing Land se Land over (L L ) mapping, 2016 DoF S, Ministry of Agriculture and Forests. An I IMOD dataset produced in the frame of a decadal land cover change study (1990 2010) for Bhutan (I IMOD 2015 Hamad et al, 2015) was used as reference for the years 2000 and 2010. In addition, a new
41 At the very heart of this study resides an intention to provide solid and reliable information to help inform decisions on interventions on the country’s forests to guide Bhutan’s future development options while maintaining its social and natural capital.
3. Direct drivers of deforestation and forest degradation
3.1 Land Use Cover Change Analysis
3.1.1 Spatial analysis
A land use/cover change analysis (LULC) was undertaken for Bhutan based on existing maps as well as on a new classifcation for the year 2015 in close cooperation with the ongoing Land Use Land Cover (LULC) mapping, 2016 DoFPS, Ministry of Agriculture and Forests. An ICIMOD dataset produced in the frame of a decadal land cover change study (1990 – 2010) for Bhutan (ICIMOD 2015; Hamad et al, 2015) was used as reference for the years 2000 and 2010. In addition, a new classifcation was done for the year 2015 using Landsat 8 imageries from USGS. Finally, this lead to a land use/ land cover change analysis for the period 2000-2015 in the frame of this study. The overall accuracy of the land cover mapping for 2015 reached 93%. Annex 4 provides a detailed working protocol of all GIS analytical steps performed.
Areas with crown cover above 10% and minimum area of 0.5 ha were classifed as forest in this study, as per the defnition of forest in Bhutan. All land (whether classifed as forest land or not) with a crown cover below 10% was not included as forest in this analysis. The forest area was further stratifed into conifer forests, broadleaf forests, and mixed forests based on the ICIMOD dataset. Forest types in this study were aligned with the LULC 2016 and National Forest Inventory forest types. In addition, a second layer of analysis was done for the same time period in order to assess potential forest degradation into three crown cover classes: 1. 50% crown cover – medium to dense forests, representing natural or near-natural forest conditions; 2. 30-50% crown cover – semi-disturbed forests, representing typically forests which supply timber and other resources for rural households; and 3. 10-30% crown cover – open forests, representing severely disturbed forests.
As an outcome of this spatial analysis a consistent spatial time-series dataset is now available for 2000, 2010 and 2015 showing land uses and forest types including crown cover classes.
40 Drivers of deforestation and forest degradation in Bhutan
Below are the frst three land cover maps, which are followed by the forest crown cover maps.
i re and se Figure 3: Land Use 2000 i re and se
Figure 4: Land Use 2010 i re and se
i re and se Drivers of deforestation and forest degradation in Bhutan 41
43 43
i re and se Figure 5: Land Use 2015
Figure 6: Crown cover 2000 i re and se i re ro n over 42 Drivers of deforestation and forest degradation in Bhutan
44
i re ro n over
44
Figure 7: Crown cover 2010 i re ro n over
Figure 8: Crown cover 2015 i re ro n over
The observed land use and crown cover changes were assessed against a set of variables in order Drivers of deforestation and forest degradation in Bhutan 43 to identify patterns related to drivers as well as certain hotspot areas. The selected and assessed variables include:
45 The observed land use and crown cover changes were assessed against a set of variables in order to identify patterns related to drivers as well as certain hotspot areas. The selected and assessed variables include: • 3 Forest types (1) coniferous forests; (2) broadleaf forests; and (3) mixed conifer and broadleaf forests (see note below) • Elevation in meters • Slope in degrees • Distance to roads in km • Distance to settlements in km • Agro-ecological zones; the 18 AEZs of the Center for Sustainability and the Global Environment (SAGE) were used as reference to the IPCC climate zones. The 18 AEZs are defned by length of the growing period as well as climatic zones (Monfreda et al., 2007). The use of this global AEZ dataset was driven by the need to further stratify the three forest classes into more homogenous strata to understand forest stocking volumes and carbon stocks, for the purpose of a more accurate assessment of carbon stock changes during the assessment period. The process of alignment of these AEZs with the LULC 2016 and NFI 2016 datasets is presented below. • Different forest management regimes under State Reserve Forest Land (SRFL): • Protected areas (PA); • Forest Management Units (FMU) • Community forests (CF), and • Forest areas outside existing management regimes (FAOEMR), such as FMUs, PAs, and CFs
Aligning forest types of this study with LULC 2016 and NFI forest types: The Land Use and Land Cover (2016) was fnalized in early December 2016 and the results and fndings were shared and discussed. The LULC map 2015 has classifed the forests into the following types: • Broadleaf • Blue Pine • Chir Pine • Fir • Mixed conifer
In addition, the frst results of the National Forest Inventory (NFI) were shared with the consultant’s team end of December 2016 with the following forest type classifcation for which stocking volumes were estimated based on the NFI sample plots: • Subtropical forest • Warm broadleaved forest • Chir Pine forest • Cool Broadleaved forest • Evergreen Oak forest • Blue Pine forest • Spruce forest
44 Drivers of deforestation and forest degradation in Bhutan • Hemlock forest • Fir forest • Juniper-Rhododendron Scrub forest • Dry Alpine Scrub forest
The analysis in this study was done on the basis of the three forest types presented above, and then were stratifed according to the different AEZs. To produce a higher Tier level carbon stock change assessment, the following procedure was applied to align the datasets of this study with the results of the LULC 2016 and NFI datasets. • Based on the AEZ classifcation and the vegetation zoning graph presented in Chhetri (2011) the most dominant forest types used in the NFI classifcation were identifed for each AEZ in this study
• For some forest types, the LULC 2016 dataset was used to spatially validate the identifcation of forest types, such as for Blue Pine, Chir Pine and Fir forests.
i re Figure e etation 9: Vegetation ones zones of tan of Bhutan ased based on ont e the ve etation vegetation assifi ation classifcation of rierson and on of Griersonin re ation and to Long a tit de (1983), and in re i itation relation to altitude and precipitation
The table below shows the allocation of forest types used in the FI and L L 2016 with the forest types and AE s in this study.
a e o ation of forest t es of t is st d it and forest t es
orest es and DriversDo inant of deforestation orest and eforest degradation in Bhutan t is st d 45 t is st d Subtropical forest Broadleaf Forest Tropical humid arm broadleaved forest hirpine Broadleaf Forest Temperate humid all year forest Mixed conifer ool broadleaved forest, Mixed conifer Broadleaf Forest Temperate humid forest Blue pine forest Hemlock forest Fir forest uniper- onifer Forest Boreal sub-humid Rhododendron Scrub forest Evergreen Oak forest Spruce forest onifer Forest Boreal moist semi-arid Fir forest Blue pine forest onifer Forest Boreal semi-dry
48
i re e etation ones of tan ased on t e ve etation assifi ation of rierson and on in re ation to a tit de and re i itation
The table below shows the allocation of forest types used in the FI and L L 2016 with the The table below shows the allocation of forest types used in the NFI and LULC 2016 forest types and AE s in this study. with the forest types and AEZs in this study.
Table a e 1: o ation Allocation of offorest forest t es types of t is of thisst d study it with andLULC and forest NFI t es forest types orest es and Do inant orest e t is st d t is st d Subtropical forest Broadleaf Forest Tropical humid arm broadleaved forest hirpine Broadleaf Forest Temperate humid all year forest Mixed conifer ool broadleaved forest, Mixed conifer Broadleaf Forest Temperate humid forest Blue pine forest Hemlock forest Fir forest uniper- onifer Forest Boreal sub-humid Rhododendron Scrub forest Evergreen Oak forest Spruce forest onifer Forest Boreal moist semi-arid Fir forest Blue pine forest onifer Forest Boreal semi-dry
Based on this allocation, weighted average stocking volumes are derived for the forest strata used to estimate carbon stock changes between the year 2000 and 2015. 48 In the following sections, the results are shown frst for forest deforestation and then for forest degradation. Both of these two results sections are structured in the following way: • Overall results on a national level • District-wise assessment of deforestation and degradation impacts • Display of overview maps • Assessment of deforestation and degradation against the selected variables to identify certain patterns and presentation of results if signifcant • Review of deforestation and degradation drivers based on statistical records • Comparison of spatial results with statistical records of the selected drivers • Ranking table of drivers based on statistical and spatial results including estimation of GHG emissions
In order to show standardized results, the following terminology is used for the fve different categories of forest changes: 1. Degradation – this refers to crown cover loss used as proxy indicator for forest degradation 2. Gain – this refers to land use change from any non-forest land to forests, be it through plantation or natural regeneration, or restoration 3. Improve – This refers to increase of crown cover as a proxy for forest improvement 4. Loss – complete deforestation and transition to any other land use (forest to non- forest) 5. Persist – No change occurred, forest remained in the same status in terms of crown cover and area
46 Drivers of deforestation and forest degradation in Bhutan These change categories are further refned into changes of crown cover classes, presented in the all graphs of this results section as illustrated in the following examples: - Persist > 50 To > 50 – No change, forest remained in dense forest class - Improve < 30 To 30 -50 – Increase of forest cover from open to medium dense forest - Degradation > 50 To 30 -50 – Crown cover reduction from dense to medium dense forests - Degradation 30 -50 To < 30 - Crown cover reduction from medium dense forests to open forests - Gain 0 To < 30 – Forest gain from non-forest (zero crown cover) to forest - Loss 30 -50 To 0 – Forest loss from medium dense forest to non-forest (zero crown cover)
Since this study is merely concerned about deforestation and degradation, less emphasis was placed on assessing forest improvement and forest area gains. However, the basic result of forest area gains are shown in the deforestation section and forest improvement are shown in the degradation section.
3.2 Results - Deforestation
3.2.1 Deforestation at the national level
On a national level, this study fnds the forest area increased from 2.63 million ha in On a national level, this study finds the forest2000, area to increased2.65 million from ha 2.63 in million 2010, ha and in 2000,2.70 tomillion 2.65 ha in 2015. This results in a total million ha in 2010, and 2.70 million ha in 2015.forest This cover results of 70.6% in a total in forest2015 whichcover of is 70.6% in line in with2015 the forest cover of the LULC project which is in line with the forest cover of the2016 L L (70.8%). project 2016 (70.8%).
Over the 15-year period (2000-2015), Table a e 2 ota Total nationa national forest forest area area, deforestation deforestation and 64,111 ha have been deforested while andforest forest ain gainres ts results 2000, and 2010 and 2015 ear rea in a ota forest Over the 15-year period (2000- 140,819 ha of forest area were 2015), 64,111 ha have been gained. This results in a total net over in deforested while 140,819 ha of forest area change of 76,708 ha, or an Forest area 2000 2,632,627 68.6% forest area were gained. This results Forest area 2010 2,650,306 69.0% annual increase of 5,114 ha over this in a total net forest area change of Forest area 2015 2,709,335 70.6% period. 36,298 ha of the deforestation 76,708 ha, or an annual increase hanges of 5,114 ha over this period. can be attributed to the conversion of Forest area gain 2000-2015 140,819 36,298 ha of the deforestation can forest to agriculture. Based on this Forest area loss 2000-2015 64,111 be attributed to the conversion of findings, the forest area in Bhutan has et change 2000-2015 76,708 forest to agriculture. Based on this increased in the last 15 years. et annual change 2000- 5,114 fndings, the forest area in Bhutan 2015 has increased in the last 15 years. 3.2.2 Deforestation at District-levels To identify regional differences in forest area changes in the assessment period, table 3 below displays the forest area gains and losses atTo the identify district regional level as welldifferences as the net in areaforest changes. area changes The in the assessment period, table 3 below displays the forest area gains and losses at the district level as well as the net table is ranked according to total forest areaarea losses. changes. The table is ranked according to total forest area losses.
a e orest area ains and osses at t e distri t eve Drivers of deforestation and forest degradation in Bhutan Distri t orest area ain orest area oss et an e 47 a a a on ar 5,417 9,338 -3,922 an d e odran 13,494 7,210 6,284 ras i an 12,445 5,932 6,514 a dr on ar 11,023 4,752 6,271 entse 5,628 4,147 1,481 a 5,553 4,137 1,416 a tse 8,682 3,963 4,718 Da ana 5,261 3,281 1,980 aro 7,169 2,887 4,282 e a ats e 4,531 2,870 1,661 na a 1,851 2,013 -162 an tse 6,609 1,998 4,612 i 8,605 1,927 6,678
50
On a national level, this study finds the forest area increased from 2.63 million ha in 2000, to 2.65 million ha in 2010, and 2.70 million ha in 2015. This results in a total forest cover of 70.6% in 2015 which is in line with the forest cover of the L L project 2016 (70.8%).
Over the 15-year period (2000-2015), a e ota nationa forest area deforestation and 64,111 ha have been deforested while forest ain res ts and 140,819 ha of forest area were ear rea in a ota forest gained. This results in a total net over in forest area change of 76,708 ha, or an Forest area 2000 2,632,627 68.6% Forest area 2010 2,650,306 69.0% annual increase of 5,114 ha over this Forest area 2015 2,709,335 70.6% period. 36,298 ha of the deforestation hanges can be attributed to the conversion of Forest area gain 2000-2015 140,819 forest to agriculture. Based on this Forest area loss 2000-2015 64,111 findings, the forest area in Bhutan has et change 2000-2015 76,708 increased in the last 15 years. et annual change 2000- 5,114 2015
To identify regional differences in forest area changes in the assessment period, table 3 below displays the forest area gains and losses at the district level as well as the net area changes. The table is ranked according to total forest area losses.
a e orest area ains and osses at t e distri t eve Table 3: Forest area gains and losses at the district level Distri t orest area ain orest area oss et an e a a a on ar 5,417 9,338 -3,922 an d e odran 13,494 7,210 6,284 ras i an 12,445 5,932 6,514 a dr on ar 11,023 4,752 6,271 entse 5,628 4,147 1,481 a 5,553 4,137 1,416 a tse 8,682 3,963 4,718 Da ana 5,261 3,281 1,980 aro 7,169 2,887 4,282 e a ats e 4,531 2,870 1,661 na a 1,851 2,013 -162
an tse 6,609 1,998 4,612 i 8,605 1,927 6,678 e an 6,508 1,907 4,601 ron sa 5,709 1,831 3,878 ar an 8,286 1,47450 6,812 aa 5,172 1,373 3,799 t an 9,433 1,311 8,122 siran 2,028 1,041 987 asa 7,415 718 6,696 ota tan
The three districts with the highest forest area losses are Monggar, angduephodrang and The three districts with the highest forest area losses are Monggar, Wangduephodrang andTrashigang Trashigang, Monggar Monggar with a net with reduction a net of reduction -3,922 ha, ofand -3,922 unakha ha, with and a netPunakha reduction with of -162a net reductionha are the onlyof -162 two districts,ha are the however, only two where districts, the forest however, area in totalwhere has the decreased. forest area In all inother total hasdistricts decreased. the forest In area all hasother increased districts the forest area has increased
The following map summarizes the deforestation analysis in Bhutan.
48 Drivers of deforestation and forest degradation in Bhutan
i re orest oss and ain
51
e an 6,508 1,907 4,601 ron sa 5,709 1,831 3,878 ar an 8,286 1,474 6,812 aa 5,172 1,373 3,799 t an 9,433 1,311 8,122 siran 2,028 1,041 987 asa 7,415 718 6,696 ota tan
The three districts with the highest forest area losses are Monggar, angduephodrang and Trashigang Monggar with a net reduction of -3,922 ha, and unakha with a net reduction of -162 ha are the only two districts, however, where the forest area in total has decreased. In all other districts the forest area has increased
The following map summarizes the deforestation analysis in Bhutan. The following map summarizes the deforestation analysis in Bhutan.
Figure 10: Forest loss and gain 2000-2015 i re orest oss and ain 3.2.3 Assessment of deforestation patterns
Assessing the total deforestation 64,111 ha between 2000 and 2015 against the variables defned above in the methodology section, the following conclusions can be drawn: - Forest types: Between 2000-2015, 75% of the deforestation occurred within broadleaf forest, 13% in mixed forests and 12% in conifer forests, based of the stratifcation of forest area according to the three different forest types in Bhutan. 51 - Elevation: 31% of the deforestation occurred in elevations lower than 1,000 m, 40% in the range 1,000 and 2,000 m, and 28% above 2,000 m. - Slope: 26% of deforestation occurred on land up to 20° slope, 26% deforestation on 20-30°; 25% on 30-40° and 23% on land with slopes >40°. - Distance to roads: 58% of forest loss occurred within 1 km to the nearest road, 24% within 1-3 km to the road, and 18% of deforestation > 3 km from the nearest road - Distance to settlements: 67% of the total deforestation occurred nearest to settlements within a buffer of 0-1 km, 17% within 1-2 km distance to settlements, and 18% > 2 km - Agro-ecological zones: Stratifying forest loss according to the AEZs used in this study: 65% of the loss occurred within the temperate zones of Bhutan, 19% in
Drivers of deforestation and forest degradation in Bhutan 49 tropical/ sub-tropical zone and 17% in cool temperate (boreal) zones. - Management regimes: Deforestation largely occurred in forest areas outside existing management regimes (FAOEMR). However, 17% of deforestation occurred within protected areas.
3.2.4 Drivers of deforestation
The spatial analysis above has assessed the forest loss in detail. Now, national documentation and statistics are used to identify a number of human activities or immediate actions in Bhutan that directly impact forest loss. They result in forest loss in particular locations, but their overall impact on forest cover on a national basis is muted due to increases in forest cover elsewhere in the country. Hence, from a land use/land cover change analysis perspective, deforestation is not a discernible land use trend in Bhutan. National statistics as well as the spatial analysis indicate that it is forest areas outside existing management regimes (such as FMU, CF and Pas) that experience higher deforestation due to conversion to other planned land uses/ activities. Hence, the deforestation in the country can be classifed as primarily planned deforestation. The human activities or immediate actions (drivers) of deforestation in the country are discussed in the subsequent sections.
Allotment of State Reserve Forest Land (SRFL) for various purposes
As per the Forest and Nature Conservation Act of Bhutan, 1995, all forests were declared to be Government Reserve Forests (GRF) (National Assembly of Bhutan, 1995), however with the most recent Forest and Nature Conservation Rules and Regulations of 2017, GRF forest is now referred to as “State Reserved Forest Land (SRFL)” (RGoB, 2017). Following the enactment of the Land Act 2007, forests grown on private land are now legally private property. The Forest and Nature Conservation Act of Bhutan, 1995 further stipulates that the National Assembly or His Majesty The King may direct that any land ceases to be SRFL. In practice, the institution that actually allots land for different development purposes, e.g., infrastructure, agriculture, etc. is the National Land Commission. In addition, His Majesty The King can grant SRFL as “Kidu” (free land) to people, and such land can be registered as private lands. Community forests also legally fall under SRFL: the community forest management groups have resource management and use rights, but land ownership lies with the state. (RGoB, 2016c; RGoB, 2007a).
According to statistics reported in the Forest Facts and Figures of the Ministry of Agriculture and Forests (see Table 4), every year the government allots thousands of hectares of SRFL to various purposes/uses, resulting in substantial forest loss. The quantities and purposes of these allocations vary from year to year. Generally, the purposes are classifed in the statistics as follows: • Lease: SRFL allotted to large projects such as hydro power, private commercial farming, mining, quarrying etc.; • Government institutions and Municipality: SRFL allotted to government institutions for various uses; • Satshab/land substitution: SRFL allotted as compensation for private registered land acquired for developmental purpose;
50 Drivers of deforestation and forest degradation in Bhutan • Religious institution: SRFL allotted to religious institutions for various uses; • Kidu land allotment: SRFL allotted as a royal prerogative – usually to households for their own use; • Land exchange: exchange of registered land with SRFL under circumstances such as: scattered land inside state reserve forests; land destroyed by natural calamities; secluded areas with crops exposed to damages by wild animals; and private registered land falling within critical watershed areas; and • Other SRFL allotment: SRFL allotted for other various unspecifed purposes.
The allotment statistics for roads and transmission lines have been excluded from this list and this driver assessment since these statistics are used specifcally for the respective drivers ‘roads’ and ‘transmission lines’ (see below).
Table 4 presents estimates of SRFL allotments for different purposes in the period 2008 to 2014 derived from various national reports that present annual forest facts and fgures. The statistics do not allow for differentiation between how much SRFL allotted had forest on it, and how much was not covered by forest. By defnition SRFL iswas largely not covered forest, by but forest. a forest By definition may include SFRL is largely a water forest, body but and/or a forest non-vegetated may include a water land coverbody and/or classes. non-vegetated land cover classes.
Table 4: Estimates of state reserve forestland allotted to various purposes in 2008 to a e sti ates of state reserve forest a otted to vario s r oses in to a 2014 (ha)
Sources: Katwal et al et al., 2011; Department of Forest and Park Services /Ministry of Agriculture and Forests, 2013; 2014; and 2015 *Values are in hectares. It is important to note that the classifcation of allotment purpose have not been exactly consistent throughout the years; hence, some purposes may not beAccording correctly to representedthe statistics inin Table the national 4 above, statistics,a total of 12,674 e.g., they ha of may SRFL be have named been allotteddifferently for orvarious combined purposes with between others. 2008-2014, Also it has translating not been into possible an annual to determine average of 1,923exactly ha. if Allotments all SRFL allottedfor lease were constitute vegetated slightly forest over land. half of all SRFL allotments between 2008-2014, followed by allotments for satshab/ land substitution, government institutions, and other SRFL allotment, i.e., Accordingallotment for to various the statistics unspecified in Tablepurposes, 4 above, in that aorder. total of 12,674 ha of SRFL have been allotted for various purposes between 2008-2014, translating into an annual average of 1,923 ha. Allotments for lease constitute slightly over half of all SRFL allotments This driver has to be considered slightly different compared to the subse uent deforestation drivers since some of the categories of allotment (e.g. other SRF allotment, land lease, etc.) most likely include land allotments for the driversDrivers mentioned of deforestation below, and forest in particulardegradation allotmentin Bhutan 51 for agriculture purposes or hydropower. As already mentioned the allotment statistics for roads and transmission lines are specifically excluded under this driver.
lt e
The spatial analysis of this study showed that 50,878 ha of forest has been converted to agriculture in the assessment period 2000 to 2015. To validate this figure this data was aligned with the L L 2016 dataset in order to exclude any misclassification. After this process, a total of 36,298 ha are found to have been converted to agriculture between 2000-2015, with a highly significant trend in the last 5 years, as more than 90% of this conversion occurred between 2010 2015. This total conversion (2010-2015) from forest to agriculture can be further classified according to L L 2016 dataset:
54 between 2008-2014, followed by allotments for satshab/ land substitution, government institutions, and other SRFL allotment, i.e., allotment for various unspecifed purposes, in that order.
This driver has to be considered slightly different compared to the subsequent deforestation drivers since some of the categories of allotment (e.g. other SRFL allotment, land lease, etc.) most likely include land allotments for the drivers mentioned below, in particular allotment for agriculture purposes or hydropower. As already mentioned the allotment statistics for roads and transmission lines are specifcally excluded under this driver.
Agriculture
The spatial analysis of this study showed that 50,878 ha of forest has been converted to agriculture in the assessment period 2000 to 2015. To validate this fgure this data was aligned with the LULC 2016 dataset in order to exclude any misclassifcation. After this process, a total of 36,298 ha are found to have been converted to agriculture between 2000-2015, with a highly signifcant trend in the last 5 years, as more than 90% of this conversion occurred between 2010 – 2015. This total conversion (2010- 2015) from forest to agriculture can be further classifed according to LULC 2016 dataset: • Chhuzhing (wet land agriculture) – 8,303 ha • Kamzhing (dry land) – 25,690 ha • Orchard – 2,304 ha
86% of this conversion was located within the tropical and temperate AEZs of this study.
During the same time, 24,631 ha have been converted from agriculture back to forests. This results in a net loss of 11,667 ha forests to agriculture, or 778 ha annually. It has to be noted that the agriculture driver is overlapping with the driver ‘allotment of State Reserve Forest Land for various purposes’ since signifcant forest areas allotted are converted into agriculture.
Agricultural projection is changing, given increasing interest in leasing for cardamom and other uses. But there are also increasing concerns over urbanization spreading into paddy lands, given their suitability for development with so few fat areas in the country. These issues will be further discussed in the underlying driver section, as they will likely have greater impact in the future.
The National Action Program to Combat Land Degradation observed that unsustainable agriculture practices exist mainly in the form of imbalanced and prolonged use of inorganic fertilizers, farming on steep terrain without adequate soil and water conservation measures, and tseri cultivation with shortened fallow cycle. Construction of earthen irrigation canals in places where the soil is highly erodible, and poor maintenance and management of irrigation systems cause downward movement of slopes (NSSC, 2014).
52 Drivers of deforestation and forest degradation in Bhutan Hydropower projects
Bhutan’s energy mix consists primarily of frewood and hydropower. Both energy sources directly affect Bhutan’s forests. Most projects constructed to date are run- of-river projects; however, many have some storage and tunnels to divert fows out of the river channel, access roads, and related transmission line development. NEC’s State of the Environment Report identifed that pressure on SRFL comes mainly from the demand for infrastructure for development (both hydroelectricity and roads) and mining. Data on permits issued for use of SRFL between 2008 to 2014 show that the highest demand for land was for infrastructure development in the form of rights-of- way for power transmission lines (9,426.16 ha), road construction (5,462.04 ha) and long-term land leases (RGoB, 2016a).
About 99.5% of electricity in Bhutan is estimated to be generated from hydropower – with the remaining portion generated from diesel power generating plants (Lean and Smyth, 2014). Roughly 75% of electricity generated in Bhutan is exported to India (ibid), and this is expected to increase given the hydropower sector development plans. A number of hydropower projects such as Chukha (336 MW), Kurichu (60 MW) and Tala (1020 MW) have been implemented with fnancial and technical assistance from India (see full list below). Bhutan requires about 300 MW of the 1,606 MW it currently generates. The huge surplus of hydropower generated in the peak season is exported to India, while in the winter lean season, Bhutan imports electricity from India.
The country has four major river systems: the Ammochu, Manas, Sunkosh, and Wangchu, hence, has substantial hydropower potential, which is estimated at about 30,000 MW. The RGoB is undertaking ambitious efforts to explore this potential and currently harnesses about 5% to 6% of its hydropower potential, according to the Asian Development Bank. There are a number of operational hydropower projects across the country, while others are under construction or planned/proposed (Annex 1).
In July 2006, India and Bhutan signed a framework agreement on hydropower development and trade, seeking to develop 10,000 MW of hydropower from 10 large projects. By 2014, the interest to reach the “10,000 MW by 2020” target was dampened, with recognition that the target itself is not achievable, and there is a need for increased evaluation of the social and environmental impacts (DGPC, 2014). However, 2014 also saw India and Bhutan reach an agreement to jointly promote hydropower development in four projects totalling 2,120 MW (RGoB and GoRI, 2014).
The public benefts and risks of hydropower development is further explored in the underlying driver section. This section focuses on the impacts hydropower projects have on forests. For every hydropower project executed, signifcant forests areas are lost. The fgures vary depending on the locations and size of the infrastructure of the hydropower project, i.e., the dam itself and the ancillaries. In Table 5, we present recent hydropower projects, and the forests areas affected, which average about 272 ha per hydropower – though there are wide variations between the smallest project and the largest one. Based on those estimates, one could infer that on average, 0.4 to 0.8 hectares of forest are lost for every megawatt (MW) generation capacity, or an average basis, 0.5 ha of forest for every MW generation capacity. The fgures in the table below also indicates that hydropower projects in Bhutan are obviously located in forested areas.
Drivers of deforestation and forest degradation in Bhutan 53 Table 5: Forest areas estimated to be lost due to a selection of hydropower projects
Sources: All values are derived from respective project documents, i.e., EIA, ESIA, and project report
* The forest area affected could not be derived from documentation; therefore the average proportion of 88% is applied to estimate the forest area affected for these three projects
Roads
According to the Asian Development Bank (ADB), a key development partner of the country, lack of accessibility and physical isolation is a major cause of poverty in Bhutan. The country’s road network coverage is limited and unable to meet a growing transportation demands. Limited coverage of feeder roads also contributes to isolation of remote rural areas – further limiting economic prospects for the people.
Hence, the ADB has been supporting the Bhutan Road Network Project to improve the country’s road infrastructure. In general, there is continuous and strong emphasis by both the Royal Government Bhutan (RGoB) and development partners to improve road infrastructure. Due to high forest cover, road construction is inescapably resulting into substantial deforestation in the country, particularly where roads are being built in forested landscapes. Because of the importance of road infrastructure to national development, every year the RGoB allots substantial areas of SRFL for road construction.
The extent of forests lost due to road construction depends on the right-of-way of the roads, which differs from one road type/class to another as specifed in the Bhutan road design standards by the Ministry of Works and Human Settlement.
54 Drivers of deforestation and forest degradation in Bhutan The SRFL allotted for road construction that are reported in national statistics for 2008 to 2014 are presented in Figure 24 below.
Source: From Forests Facts and Figures publications by Ministry of Agriculture and Forests (see section 4.)
Figure 11: State reserve forest land allotted to roads in the year 2008 to 2014
Over the period 2008-2014, a total of about 5,770 ha of SRFL were allotted to road construction, which translates to an annual average of 820 ha. While there is considerable annual fuctuation, the current magnitudes of SRFL allotment for road construction is expected to continue since road infrastructure continue to be among the top development priorities of the RGoB and development partners. The density of road has been estimated to have doubled from about 1.5 km/km² in 2005 to 3 km/km² in 2011 (National Statistics Bureau, 2014).
It has been noted that infrastructure development such as construction of roads using heavy machinery and cutting of steep slopes is environmentally challenging in Bhutan’s steep topography and fragile geological conditions. The quality of farm roads in particular is of concern given that most are earthen roads, poorly engineered, built at minimal cost, and with little to no maintenance. In addition, migrant road workers are often brought in to build roads, adding to the demographic pressures on surrounding forests and water (NSSC, 2014).
The country’s Eleventh Five Year Plan (for the period 2013-2018) places ample emphasis on road infrastructure, which is also linked to other development priorities such as hydropower projects. About 31% of the rural population still resides one hour in walking distance from a road head, and thus the 11th Five-Year Plan seeks to increase access for more people. There are plans to upgrade and build national highways, and roads connecting to hydropower projects, districts (Dzongkhag), etc. Roads access is also intended to improve social services and economic prospects by practically linking almost every village in the country (Royal Government of Bhutan, 2013).
Drivers of deforestation and forest degradation in Bhutan 55
Over the period 2008-2014, a total of about 5,770 ha of SFR land were allotted to road construction, which translates to an annual average of 820 ha. hile there is considerable annual fluctuation, the current magnitudes of SRFL allotment for road construction is expected to continue since road infrastructure continue to be among the top development priorities of the R oB and development partners. The density of road has been estimated to have doubled from about 1.5 km/km in 2005 to 3 km/km in 2011 ( ational Statistics Bureau, 2014).
It has been noted that infrastructure development such as construction of roads using heavy machinery and cutting of steep slopes is environmentally challenging in Bhutan s steep topography and fragile geological conditions. The uality of farm roads in particular is of concern given that most are earthen roads, poorly engineered, built at minimal cost, and with little to no maintenance. In addition, migrant road workers are often brought in to build roads, adding to the demographic pressures on surrounding forests and water ( SS , 2014).
The country s Eleventh Five ear lan (for the period 2013-2018) places ample emphasis on road infrastructure, which is also linked to other development priorities such as hydropower projects. About 31% of the rural population still resides one hour in walking distance from a road head, and thus the 11th Five- ear lan seeks to increase access for more people. There are plans to upgrade and build national highways, and roads connecting to hydropower projects, districts (Dzongkhag), etc. Roads access is also intended to improve social services and economic prospects by practically linking almost every village in the country (Royal overnment of Bhutan, 2013).
e l e
ower lines arePower directly lines linked to hydropower development Table 6: Right-of-way for projects. Forests are cleared to provide right-of-way and the Power lines are directly linked to hydropower electricityTable 6: Right-of-way transmission for width differs accordingdevelopments to the projects. voltages Forests of the are transmission cleared to provide line lineselectricity transmission lines right-of-way and the width differs according to the (Bhutan ower orporation, 2016), ranging from 4to 52 m (Table 10). Hence,voltages a 4-52 of m the buffer transmission has to line be cleared (Bhutan along Power Corporation, 2016), ranging from 4 to 52 m (Table transmission lines10). for Hence, safety a 4 reasons. - 52 m buffer hen has multiplied to be cleared by along the extensive lengthstransmission of such lines, lines this for resultssafety reasons. in substantial When multiplied loss of by the extensive lengths of such lines, this results in forests. substantial loss of forests. Supply of energySupply is indisputably of energy isa key indisputably development a key developmentpriority of priority of the RGoB. Hence, every year, the government the R oB. Hence,allots every large year, areas the ofgovernment SRFL for transmission allots large linesareas – of SRFL for transmissionresulting linesinto substantial resulting forest into loss. substantial The quantities forest of loss. The uantitiesSRFL of allotted SRFL allotted for transmission for transmission lines that arelines reported that Source:Source: Bhutan owerPower in national statistics for the year 2008 to 2014 are Corporation, orporation, 2016. are reported in nationalpresented statistics in Figure for 12 thebelow. year 2008 to 2014 are presented in Figure 12 below. Source: From Forests Facts and Figures publications by Ministry of Agriculture and Forests (see section 4.) 1,000
788 800 754 613 626 600 520 58
(ha) 400 306 183 200
SRFL SRFL allotedto transmission lines 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
i reFigure tate 12: State reserve reserve forests forests and a otted land allotted to trans ission to transmission ines in lines in to 2008 to 2014 Source: From Forests Facts and Figures publications by Ministry of Agriculture and Forests (see section 4.) A total of 3,791ha of SRFL were lost due to rights of way for transmission lines and erectionA total of of 3,791ha pylons of over SRFL the were period lost due 2008-2014, to rights of which way for converts transmission to an lines annual and averageerection of 542 ha. The fgures show annual fuctuations, with 2014 having the lowest number. pylons over the period 2008-2014, which converts to an annual average of 542 ha. The figures show annual fluctuations, with 2014 having the lowest number. Mines and Quarries
The e National a a e Environmental Commission (NEC) State of the Environment Report identifed mining as exerting signifcant pressure on SRFL. Permits issued for the use ofThe SRFL ational for long Environmental term leases ommission for mining ( E )amounting State ofto roughly the Environment 3,800 ha Report out of identifiedthe total ofmining 5,207.67 as exerting ha leased significant between pressure 2008 on to SRFL. 2014 ermits (RGoB, issued 2016a). for the As useof 2015, of SRFL there for long were term 48 activeleases formines mining and amounting quarries operatingto roughly in3,800 Bhutan, ha out of of which the total 26 ofwere 5,207.67 stone ha quarries, leased between and 22 were2008 tomineral 2014 (R oB, mines. 2016a). Minerals As offound 2015, in there Bhutan were are 48 activelimestone, mines talc, and uarriesgypsum, operating quartzite, in Bhutan, of which 26 were stone uarries, and 22 were mineral mines. Minerals found in Bhutan are56 limestone,Drivers of deforestation talc, gypsum, and forest uartzite, degradation granite, in Bhutan marble, dolomite, coal, and iron ore. urrent active mines and uarries are largely concentrated in western Bhutan (42%) with the largest number in Thimphu (7), angdue hodrang (7) and aro (6). The Southern region has 35% with the maximum in Samtse (11). The Eastern region has 19% with the highest number in ema atshel (6) (Anti- orruption ommission, 2016).
Dolomite and gypsum mining is increasing, with dolomite production increasing from 0.39 to 1.50 MMT between 2002 and 2012, while gypsum increased from 0.11 to 0.31 MMT. ravel, sand and rock mining also exist, supporting road construction and development.
59 granite, marble, dolomite, coal, and iron ore. Current active mines and quarries are largely concentrated in western Bhutan (42%) with the largest number in Thimphu (7), Wangduephodrang (7) and Paro (6). The Southern region has 35% with the maximum in Samtse (11). The Eastern region has 19% with the highest number in Pemagatshel (6) (Anti-Corruption Commission, 2016).
Dolomite and gypsum mining is increasing, with dolomite production increasing from 0.39 to 1.50 MMT between 2002 and 2012, while gypsum increased from 0.11 to 0.31 MMT. Gravel, sand and rock mining also exist, supporting road construction and development.
Source: Anti-Corruption Commission, 2016
i re ig re : r o ro t wth in the into ttota al n m bn erer of mine ofs a n ines arri e easeds lease andan c l osedose 6- o rce: a thors sing com ile Source: Anti- orruption ommission, 2016
Figure 13: Growth in total number of mines leased and closed (1976-2015) i reMining ig re : re uiresr o ro t wth in th e road into ttota al n development m bn erer of mine ofs a n to ines access arri e easeds le a minese andan sites, c l osedose and 6- involve o excavation.rce: a thors s i Significantng com ile Source:adverse Anti- orruption impacts of ommission,mining are 2016land disturbance and fissure development from drilling, blasting, Mining requires road development to access mine sites, and involve excavation. excavation, site clearing, destruction of vegetation, sedimentation, contamination of water and Signifcant adverse impacts of mining are land disturbance and fssure development from air with dust particles affecting human health and impacting livelihoods through decline in Miningdrilling, re uires blasting, road excavation, development site to clearing, access mine destruction sites, and of involvevegetation, excavation. sedimentation, Significant adversecontaminationagriculture impacts production of of mining water ( SS , are and 2014).land air disturbance with dust and particles fissure development – affecting humanfrom drilling, health blasting, and excavation,impacting sitelivelihoods clearing, throughdestruction decline of vegetation, in agriculture sedimentation, production contamination (NSSC, 2014). of water and air with dust particles affecting human health and impacting livelihoods through decline in agriculture3.2.5 Comparison production statistical ( SS , 2014). records with spatial results The table below summarizes and compares the statistical records of deforestation attributed to Thethe different table below drivers summarizes identified above and against compares the spatial the statistical analysis. Figures records are of presented deforestation as an attributedannual average to the of differentdeforestation drivers to account identifed for theabove difference against of the the spatial reference analysis. period usedFigures for are presented as an annual average of deforestation to account for the difference of the Thethe table review below and spatialsummarizes analysis. and compares the statistical records of deforestation attributed to reference period used for the review and spatial analysis. the different drivers identified above against the spatial analysis. Figures are presented as an a e tatisti a re ords of deforestation attri ted to t e different drivers annualTable 7:average Statistical of deforestation records of deforestationto account for 2000-2015 the difference attributed of the referenceto the different period drivers used for the review and spatial analysis. a e tatisti a re ords of deforestation attri ted to t e different drivers The total annual deforestation of the statistical records of all drivers in Table 7 is 5,798 ha compared to 4,274 ha of total annual deforestation based on the spatial analysis. Taking into Drivers of deforestation and forest degradation in Bhutan 57 account that the driver allotment for various purposes significantly overlaps with the annual deforestation areas in particular for agriculture, and hydropower, the total deforestation from Thestatistical total annualrecords deforestationwithout the SRFL of theallotment statistical and recordsthe spatial of results all drivers for agriculture in Table 7 amounts is 5,798 to ha compared to 4,274 ha of total annual deforestation based on the spatial analysis. Taking into account that the driver allotment for various purposes significantly overlaps with the annual deforestation areas in particular for agriculture, and hydropower, the total deforestation from statistical records without the SRFL allotment and60 the spatial results for agriculture amounts to
60 The total annual deforestation of the statistical records of all drivers in Table 7 is 5,798 ha compared to 4,274 ha of total annual deforestation based on the spatial analysis. Taking into account that the driver ‘allotment for various purposes’ signifcantly overlaps with the annual deforestation areas in particular for agriculture, and hydropower, the 3,875 ha which is only marginally lower than the overall estimated annual deforestation total deforestation from statistical records without the SRFL allotment and the spatial estimated in the IS study (4,274 ha). results for agriculture amounts to 3,875 ha which is only marginally lower than the overall estimated annual deforestation estimated in the GIS study (4,274 ha). 3.2.5 Ranking of deforestation drivers 3.2.6 Ranking of deforestation drivers The ranking of drivers of deforestation is presented below, based on the extent of forest areas Theestimated ranking to be of affected drivers annually of deforestation by the drivers is presented which was below,identified based in the on previous the extent table. ofIn forestaddition, areas the annualestimated H to emissions be affected are estimatedannually basedby the on drivers the average which carbon was identifedstock density in thecalculated previous in section table. 3.4In addition,(Scenario 2,the year annual 2000). GHG emissions are estimated based on the average carbon stock density calculated in section 3.4 (Scenario 2, year 2000). a e an in of deforestation drivers Table 8: Ranking of deforestation drivers 604,852 591,327 257,919 199,101 170,478
StakeholderStakeholder consultation consultation workshops workshops were were organized organized for the for three the threedifferent different regions regionsin Bhutan, in Bhutan,i.e. South i.e. entral, South East Central, and est. East Representatives and West. Representatives from different sectors from different were invited sectors from wereeach invitedregion to from identify each and region rank totheir identify regional and drivers rank oftheir deforestation regional drivers and degradation. of deforestation In addition, and degradation.Tarayana Foundation In addition, was commission Tarayana to Foundationconduct local wasstakeholder commissioned meetings toin conductvarious villages local stakeholderthroughout Bhutan. meetings Figure in various14 summarizes villages the throughout total scoring Bhutan. from all Figureregions 14for summarizesthe identified thetop total scoring from all regions for the identifed top 5 drivers of deforestation. A higher 5 drivers of deforestation. A higher scoring indicates a higher rank of a particular driver. Apart scoring indicates a higher rank of a particular driver. Apart from the present scoring from the present scoring and ranking, stakeholders were also asked to score the potential future and ranking, stakeholders were also asked to score the potential future impacts of the sameimpacts drivers. of the same drivers.
58 Drivers of deforestation and forest degradation in Bhutan 61
i reFigure 14 s ar summary resent present and and f t re future i a t impact s orin scoring of of drivers drivers of of deforestation deforestation as a res t of e er isesas d rin a result re iona of exercises ons tation during or s o s regional consultation workshops
StakeholdersStakeholders ranked ranked the the No o1 direct 1 direct driver driver of deforestationof deforestation as asroads, roads, followed followed by by power power lines, lines,and and hydropower hydropower projects. projects. The Therankings rankings by stakeholders by stakeholders for both for deforestation both deforestation and degradation and degradation is based on the perceptions of people and the knowledge that they is based on the perceptions of people and the knowledge that they have of patterns in their have of patterns in their region, and not necessarily on objective data. The allotment of SRFL,region, identifed and not as necessarilyNo 1 driver on in objective this study, data. is The ranked allotment only offorth SRF by land, the identified stakeholders. as o 1 driver Assessingin this thestudy, ranking is ranked of the only same forth driversby the stakeholders. in the future, Assessing however, the identifed ranking of allotment the same drivers of SRFLin the as future, well as however, mining identified and agriculture allotment as of the SRF highestland as wellranking as mining drivers. and Thisagriculture was as the justifedhighest by theranking future drivers. development This was justifiedof commercial by the futureagriculture development leading of to commercial higher risk agriculture of deforestation.leading to higher risk of deforestation.
3.3. Results - forest degradation 3.3.1 Summary national results of Degradation a e ota nationa de radation ro n sing crown cover changes as the proxy In contrast to the results from deforestation over in Bhutan de rease which and i rove ent shows a forest ro n cover indicator for degradation, 667,680 ha of increase,In contrast the fndings to the results of this from degradation deforestation study over in Bhutan in rease suggest which thatres ts shows forest a forest degradation cover and increase, is forests the have been degraded (crown cover occurringfindings to ofsome this extent.degradation study suggest that forest degradation is occurring to some extent.decrease) in the 15-year assessment period an e and eriod rea while 456,794 ha have improved (crown cover Table 9: Total national degradation (crown affe ted in increase). 32% of the area identified as cover decrease) and improvement (crown a degrading saw crown cover shift from dense cover increase) results 2000, 2010 and 2015 De radation 768,802 to medium dense forests. 42% and 27% of the De radation 573,484 forest area under degradation represent De radation 667,680 degradation from medium-dense to open and
dense to open forests respectively. rove ent 542,928 rove ent 589,379 rove ent 456,794 onsidering the improvement of forest crown cover, the net degradation accounts for et an e -210,886 210,886 ha of forest, or an annual average of et ann a an e -14,059 14,059 ha over the assessment period. Table 10 below displays the crown cover Drivers of deforestation62 and forest degradation in Bhutan percentage of each crown cover class (open,59 medium, dense) out of the total forest area in the three different years assessed.
a e orest ro n over asses in of tota forest areas in tan and an es et een and
orest ro n over en orest edi orest Dense orests ota orest asses rea a ear 9.5% 39.9% 50.6% 2,632,627 ear 27.9% 17.3% 54.8% 2,650,306 ear 23.9% 25.7% 50.5% 2,709,335
The share of dense forests remains remarkably high and is more than 50% of the total forest area in Bhutan. As a comparison, in the Indian State of Sikkim with similar altitudinal and ecological ranges, the forest cover of dense forests is around 15% (Forest Survey of India 2015). Significant changes have taken place in the other two crown cover classes. The area under medium dense forests (30-50% crown cover) has decreased from 40% in 2000 to only 26% in 2015 while the open, degraded forest class (10-30% crown cover) has increased from 10% to as much as 24% in 2015. This is a clear sign of degradation in some of the forests.
Figure 15 below summarizes the total forest area changes in the last 5 years based on the change categories and crown cover classes. It is presented as % shares of the total forest area in 2010 which changed or remained within these categories and classes.
63
a e ota nationa de radation ro n sing crown cover changes as the proxy over de rease and i rove ent ro n indicator for degradation, 667,680 ha of over in rease res ts and forests have been degraded (crown cover decrease) in the 15-year assessment period an e and eriod rea while 456,794 ha have improved (crown cover affe ted in increase). 32% of the area identified as a degrading saw crown cover shift from dense De radation 768,802 to medium dense forests. 42% and 27% of the De radation 573,484 forest area under degradation represent De radation 667,680 degradation from medium-dense to open and
dense to open forests respectively. rove ent 542,928 rove ent 589,379 rove ent 456,794 onsidering the improvement of forest crown cover, the net degradation accounts for et an e -210,886 210,886 ha of forest, or an annual average of Change and period et ann a an e -14,059 14,059 ha over the assessment period. Considering the improvement of forest crown cover, the net degradation accounts for 210,886 ha of forest, or an annual average of 14,059Table 10ha over below the displays assessment the crownperiod. cover percentage of each crown cover class (open, medium, dense) out of the total forest area in the Tablethree different10 below years displays assessed. the crown cover percentage of each crown cover class (open, medium, dense) out of the total forest area in the three different years assessed. a e orest ro n over asses in of tota forest areas in tan and an es et een Table 10: Forest crown cover classes in % of total forest areas in Bhutan and changes and between 2000 and 2015 orest ro n over en orest edi orest Dense orests ota orest asses rea a ear 9.5% 39.9% 50.6% 2,632,627 ear 27.9% 17.3% 54.8% 2,650,306 ear 23.9% 25.7% 50.5% 2,709,335
TheThe share of of dense dense forests forests remains remains remarkably remarkably high high and isand more is more than 50%than of 50% the totalof the forest total area forestin Bhutan. area As in a Bhutan.comparison, As ain comparison,the Indian State in theof Sikkim Indian with State similar of Sikkimaltitudinal with and similar ecological altitudinalranges, the forest and ecological cover of dense ranges, forests the is forestaround cover 15% (Forest of dense Survey forests of India is around2015). Significant 15% (Forest Survey of India 2015). Signifcant changes have taken place in the other two changes have taken place in the other two crown cover classes. The area under medium dense crown cover classes. The area under medium dense forests (30-50% crown cover) has decreasedforests (30-50% from 40%crown in cover) 2000 tohas only decreased 26% in from2015 40% while in the2000 open, to only degraded 26% in forest 2015 classwhile the (10-30%open, degraded crown forestcover) class has (10-30%increased crown from cover) 10% hasto as increased much as from 24% 10% in to2015. as much This as is 24% a in clear2015. signThis isof adegradation clear sign of indegradation some of the in someforests. of the forests.
3.3.2 District level assessment of degradation
Figure 15 below summarizes the total forest area changes in the last 5 years based on Figure 15 below summarizes the total forest area changes in the last 5 years based on the change the change categories and crown cover classes. It is presented as % shares of the total categories and crown cover classes. It is presented as % shares of the total forest area in 2010 forest area in 2010 which changed or remained within these categories and classes. which changed or remained within these categories and classes.
63
Figure i re 15: Percent er ent of of total tota forestforest area area in tanin Bhutan in in ersisted 2010 persisted or an ed or to changed different to 2015, an e ate ories n ers re resent ro n over asses e ample of t e total forest area in differentin utan change persisted categories in t e dense ro n (numbers over lass ( represent ro n over) crown ile cover improved classes);example: from open to medium dense 39%forests of the total forest area in 2010 in Bhutan persisted in the dense crown cover class (>50% crown cover), while 11% improved from open to medium-dense forests As shown in the figure, most forest areas in Bhutan either remain (persist) within the initial forest crown cover class or improve to more dense forests. In contrast to this positive forest Driversdevelopment, of deforestation the degradation and forest degradation of forests towards in Bhutan more open crown cover classes should be 60 e ually considered significant and the volume and carbon stock change analysis (see section 3.4) is giving more insights into the changes occurring within Bhutan s forests in terms of uality rather than just the uantitative (forest cover) assessment. If broken down to a district level, significant different patterns of forest changes can be observed for the same assessment period 2010-2015 between different districts. Exemplarily, four districts are presented below representing the main parts of Bhutan:
64 As shown in the fgure, most forest areas in Bhutan either remain (persist) within the initial forest crown cover class or improve to more dense forests. In contrast to this positive forest development, the degradation of forests towards more open crown cover classes should be equally considered signifcant; and the volume and carbon stock change analysis (see section 3.4) is giving more insights into the changes occurring within Bhutan’s forests in terms of quality rather than just the quantitative (forest cover) assessment. If broken down to a district level, signifcant different patterns of forest changes can be observed for the same assessment period 2010-2015 between different districts. Exemplarily, four districts are presented below representing the main parts of Bhutan:
Drivers of deforestation and forest degradation in Bhutan 61
65 65
Figure 16: Percent of total forest area in four districts in 2010 persisted or changed to i re2015, different er ent change of tota categories forest area(numbers in fo r represent distri ts crown in cover ersisted classes) or an ed to different an e ate ories n ers re resent ro n over asses Table 11 summarizes the three main forest changes related to forest quality which occurred in each of the districts between 2010 and 2015 in percent of the total forest area Tableof that 11 particular summarizes district. the threeA colour main coding forest is changes used to illustraterelated to a forest hotspot uality of forest which occurred in degradation: ‘Green’ indicates no or positive changes, i.e. persisting forest areas with each of the districts between 2010 and 2015 in percent of the total forest area of that particular the samedistrict. crown A colour cover coding(‘persist’) is used or increasing to illustrate crown a hotspot cover (‘improve’); of forest degradation: ‘yellow’ indicates reen indicates no occurrencedistrict. of A colour degradation, coding however,is used to crownillustrate cover a hotspot decrease of forest from degradation: dense to medium reen indicates no denseor forests; positive ‘red’ changes, highlights i.e. persisting those districts forest areaswith signifcantwith the same degradation crown cover from ( persist ) dense or increasing or mediumcrown dense cover forest ( improve ) to open yellow forests. indicatesAs this is a occurrence national-level of degradation, assessment, however,district- crown cover level decreasedata is quite from coarse dense and to should medium only dense be used forests to identify red initialhighlights hotspot those areas, districts which with significant then require further ‘ground-truthing’ and more detailed assessment of local drivers. degradation from dense or medium dense forest to open forests. As this is a national-level For instance,assessment, the district-level table below data identifes is uite Monggar coarse asand a should hotspot, only but be further used to analysis identify initial hotspot identifedassessment, strong degradationdistrict-level patternsdata is uite that coarse led for and further should deforestation, only be used and to identify poorly initial hotspot vegetatedareas, forest which areas then in re uirefragile, steep further southern ground-truthing facing slopes. and The more table detailed is presented assessment of local in alphabeticaldrivers. For order. instance, the table below identifies Monggar as a hotspot, but further analysis identified strong degradation patterns that led for further deforestation, and poorly vegetated forest areas in fragile, steep southern facing slopes. The table is presented in alphabetical order.
62 Drivers of deforestation and forest degradation in Bhutan
66
Table a e 11: Major a or distri t ise district-wise forest forest an es changes et een between and 2010 and and 2015assess ent and assessment of ots ot of distri tshotspot districts 67 Drivers of deforestation and forest degradation in Bhutan 63
All the districts flagged red are located in the southern tropical or warm temperate zones dominated by broadleaf forests.
The following map summarizes the ualitative change of forests in Bhutan.
68
AllAll the the districts districts flaggedfagged red red are are located located in thein the southern southern tropical tropical or warm or temperatewarm temperate zones zonesdominated dominated by broadleaf by broadleaf forests. forests.
TheThe following following map summarizes summarizes the the ualitative qualitative change change of forests of inforests Bhutan. in Bhutan.
68
Figure 17: Forest degradation and improvement 2000-2015 i re orest de radation and i rove ent
Assessing64 Drivers the of deforestation total degradation and forest ofdegradation 667,680 in ha Bhutan between 2000 and 2015 against the variables defined above in the methodology section, the following conclusions can be drawn:
- Forest types: Stratifying the forest area in Bhutan according to the three different forest types used in this study, 50% of the degradation in the assessment period 2000-2015 occurred within broadleaf forest, 48% within conifer forests and 2% within mixed forests. Table 13 shows that the majority of degradation within the broadleaf forest class occurred towards open forests while degradation in confer forests occurred from dense to medium dense forests.
a e rea s ares of forest de radation de endin on forest t e and ro n over an e
o a e s De radation De radation De radation o o o road eaf orest 22% 7% 21% onifer orest 19% 24% 5%
69
i re orest de radation and i rove ent
3.3.3 Assessment of degradation patterns Assessing the total degradation of 667,680 ha between 2000 and 2015 against the variablesAssessing defned the total above degradation in the of methodology 667,680 ha between section, 2000 the and following 2015 against conclusions the variables can be drawn:defined above in the methodology section, the following conclusions can be drawn: - Forest types: Stratifying the forest area in Bhutan according to the three different - forestForest typestypes: usedStratifying in this the study,forest area 50% in ofBhutan the degradation according to thein thethree assessment different forest period 2000-2015types used inoccurred this study, within 50% ofbroadleaf the degradation forest, in48% the within assessment conifer period forests 2000-2015 and 2% withinoccurred mixed within forests. broadleaf Table forest, 13 48% shows within that conifer the forests majority and of2% degradation within mixed withinforests. the broadleafTable 13 shows forest that class the majorityoccurred of degradationtowards open within forests the broadleaf while degradationforest class occurred in confer foreststowards occurred open forests from while dense degradation to medium in confer dense forests forests. occurred from dense to medium dense forests. Table 12: Area shares of forest degradation depending on forest type and crown cover change a e rea s ares of forest de radation de endin on forest t e and ro n over an e o a e s De radation De radation De radation o o o road eaf orest 22% 7% 21% onifer orest 19% 24% 5% i ed orest 1% 1% 0%
- - Elevation:Elevation: 34% 34% of theof thetotal total degradation degradation occurred69 occurred in altitudes in ranging altitudes from ranging2000-3000 from m, 31% 2000- 3000in areas m, above 31% 3,000 in areas m, 17% above within 3,000 zones m, between 17% within 1,000 zonesand 2,000m, between and 1,000 19% of and 2,000m,degradation and in forest19% ofareas degradation below 1,000 in m. forest areas below 1,000 m. - Slope: 33% of the degradation occurred on land between 20 30 , 27% of degradation within - Slope: 33% of the degradation occurred on land between 20 – 30°, 27% of degradation 30-40 25% on forest land 20 , 23% on land with slopes 40 , and 16% above 40 . within 30-40°; 25% on forest land <20°, 23% on land with slopes >40°, and 16%
- aboveDistance 40°. to roads: 32% of forest degradation occurred beyond 5 km to the nearest road, 28% within 2-5 km to the road, 14% within 1-2 km, and 25% of degradation 1 km from the - Distancenearest road to roads: 32% of forest degradation occurred beyond 5 km to the nearest - road,Distance 28% to settlements:within 2-5 33%km ofto the the total road, degradation 14% within occurred 1-2 nearestkm, and to settlements25% of degradation within 2 and km 19% in cool temperate (boreal) zones. - Management regimes: First the table below shows the total area of degradation in ha within - Agro-ecological zones: Stratifying forest degradation according to the AEZs used in each of the management regimes assessed in Bhutan as well as the % share this study, 66% of the degradation occurred within the temperate zones of Bhutan,
17% in tropical/ sub-tropical zone and 19% in cool temperate (boreal) zones. a e reas nder de radation d rin in din of tota de radation area - Management regimes: First the table below shows the total area of degradation in ana e entha within eachde radation of the management to de radationregimes assessed to in Bhutande radation as well asto the % re i eshare a a a 10,207 (1.5%) 25,399 (3.8%) 6,063 (0.9%) 2,413 (0.4%) 1,732 (0.3%) 2,865 (0.4%) 112,262 (16.8%) 93,664 (14.0%) 59,004 (8.8%) 153,669 (23.0%) 90,763 (13.6%) 109,639 (16.4%)
In absolute terms, most of the degradation occurred in forest areas outside of the other management regimes, in particular degradation from medium dense and dense forest to open forest conditions is significant. Also, 40% of the forest degradation occurred within forest areas under protection ( As). This could be attributed to the rural timber entitlements to the community residing within the protected areas. Drivers of deforestation and forest degradation in Bhutan 65 ext, the degradation is assessed as proportion within each of the areas under a certain management regime. nder all management regimes the largest share of the respective forest area is covered with persistent dense forests, always ranging around 40% of the areas (see below).
70
i ed orest 1% 1% 0%
- Elevation: 34% of the total degradation occurred in altitudes ranging from 2000-3000 m, 31% in areas above 3,000 m, 17% within zones between 1,000 and 2,000m, and 19% of degradation in forest areas below 1,000 m. - Slope: 33% of the degradation occurred on land between 20 30 , 27% of degradation within 30-40 25% on forest land 20 , 23% on land with slopes 40 , and 16% above 40 . - Distance to roads: 32% of forest degradation occurred beyond 5 km to the nearest road, 28% within 2-5 km to the road, 14% within 1-2 km, and 25% of degradation 1 km from the nearest road - Distance to settlements: 33% of the total degradation occurred nearest to settlements within a buffer of 0-1 km, 17% within 1-2 km distance to settlements, and 50% 2 km - Agro-ecological zones: Stratifying forest degradation according to the AE s used in this study, 66% of the degradation occurred within the temperate zones of Bhutan, 17% in tropical/ sub- tropical zone and 19% in cool temperate (boreal) zones. - Management regimes: First the table below shows the total area of degradation in ha within each of the management regimes assessed in Bhutan as well as the % share Table 13: Areas under degradation during 2000 - 2015 including % of total degradation a e reas area nder de radation d rin in din of tota de radation area ana e ent de radation to de radation to de radation to re i e a a a 10,207 (1.5%) 25,399 (3.8%) 6,063 (0.9%) 2,413 (0.4%) 1,732 (0.3%) 2,865 (0.4%) 112,262 (16.8%) 93,664 (14.0%) 59,004 (8.8%) 153,669 (23.0%) 90,763 (13.6%) 109,639 (16.4%)
In absoluteIn absolute terms, terms, most most of ofthe the degradation degradation occurredoccurred in in forest forest areas areas outside outside of theof the other other managementmanagement regimes, regimes, in in particular particular degradation from from medium medium dense dense and denseand dense forest forestto to openopen forest forest conditionsconditions is is significant. signifcant. Also, Also, 40% of40% the offorest the degradationforest degradation occurred withinoccurred withinforest forest areas areas under under protection protection ( As). This (PAs). could This be attributed could be to attributed the rural timber to the entitlements rural timber entitlementsto the community to the community residing within residing the protected within areas. the protected areas.
Next, ext, the degradationthe degradation is assessedis assessed as as proportion proportion within each each of of the the areas areas under under a certain a certain managementmanagement regime. regime. Under nder all all management management regimes thethe largest largest share share of of the the respective respective forestforest area area is covered is covered with with persistent persistent dense dense forests, forests, always always ranging ranging around around 40% of the 40% areas of the areas(see (see below). below).
70
i re Figure orest 18: an e Forest ate ories change categories 2010 it in -2015 forestwithin areas FMU forest areas
22% of the FMU areas experience degradation from dense to medium dense forests. However,22% ofthis the opening FM areas of the experience forest cover degradation most likely from is densea result to of medium the logging dense activities forests. usingHowever, group this felling opening and of cablethe forest yarding cover most systems likely is and a result must of the not logging be consideredactivities using as degradationgroup felling per andse sincecable yardingthe harvesting systems and is plannedmust not beand considered executed as along degradation principles per se of sustainablesince the forest harvesting management is planned (i.e. and annual executed allowable along cut). principles These of degraded sustainable areas forest in FMUsmanagement will recoup (i.e. during annual the allowable stages cut).of working These degraded cycle and areas gain in canopy FM s will closure. recoup during the stages of working cycle and gain canopy closure.
66 Drivers of deforestation and forest degradation in Bhutan
71
i re Figure orest 19: an e Forest ate ories change categories it in 2010 -2015 forest within areas CF forest areas
Apart from the large share of persisting dense forests, community management areas Apart from the large share of persisting dense forests, community management areas showedApart a balance from the between large share degradation of persisting and dense improvement forests, community ranging management around 9 to areas 10%. showed a balance between degradation and improvement ranging around 9 to 10%.
i re Figure orest 20: an e Forest ate ories change categories it in 2010 -2015 forest within areas PA forest areas
In protected forest areas, degradation of dense to medium dense forests occurred along with an improvement from open to medium dense forests. 72
Drivers of deforestation and forest degradation in Bhutan 67
In protected forest areas, degradation of dense to medium dense forests occurred along with an improvement from open to medium dense forests.
Figure i re 21: orestForest an e change ate ories categories 2010 it in -2015 within forest FAOEMRareas forest areas
In forest In areas forest outside areas outside of of any any of of the the other existing management management regimes, the persisting regimes, forests the are persisting forests aredominating dominating (43% dense (43% and dense 10% open and forests) 10% with open degradation forests) occurring with from degradation medium dense occurring from mediumto open dense forests toalong open with improvementforests along of the with same category.improvement of the same category.
3.3.4 Drivers of forest degradation
Based on the spatial analysis of this study, forest degradation has more impact on Bhutan s Based onforests the spatialcompared analysisto the deforestation. of this A study,number offorest human activitiesdegradation are degrading has forestsmore in impact on Bhutan’s Bhutan forests lowering compared the carbon to stock the storage deforestation. and productivity A of number the ecosystem of humanin general. activitiesThe are degradingdrivers forests of forest in degradationBhutan –identified lowering in this the study carbon are described stock in the storage subse uent and section. productivity It of should be noted that these degradation drivers do not necessarily result in discernible changes the ecosystemin the forest in general. cover. The drivers of forest degradation identifed in this study are described in the subsequent section. It should be noted that these degradation drivers do not necessarily e a e t result in discernible changes in the forest cover.
Timber harvestingThe allocation of subsidized/concessional timbers is largely dealt directly by the DoF S through its field offices. The government institutions responsible for managing extraction and supply of timber are the Department of Forest and ark Services (DoF S), and the atural Resources The allocationDevelopment of subsidized/concessional orporation Limited ( RD L). RD L timbers implements is Forest largely Management dealt lans directly in by the DoFPS throughapproved its Forest feld Management offces. nitsThe (FM )government and orking institutions Schemes ( S), responsible operates outside for of managing extraction and supply of timber are the Department of Forest and Park Services (DoFPS), and the Natural Resources Development Corporation Limited (NRDCL). 73 NRDCL implements Forest Management Plans in approved Forest Management Units (FMU) and Working Schemes (WS), operates outside of FMUs in coordination with DoFPS, and allocates and markets commercial timber (NRDCL, 2015). NRDCL’s timber production in 2014 was 45,443 m3, which was 90% of its target, and roughly 65% of the production NRDCL saw on 2013 and 2012 (ibid).
In the national statistics (Forests Facts and Figures), timber harvesting includes not only sawn timber, but a range of other wood products such as cham, dangchung, drashing, posts, frewood, poles, hakaries, logs, shinglep, tsim, wood chips, etc. National statistics, report timber extraction and supply according to three categories:
• Subsidized timber for rural areas • Commercial timber • Royalty Free timber
68 Drivers of deforestation and forest degradation in Bhutan Timber is allotted at subsidized royalty rates to the rural population for house construction maintenance and repair as well as other purposes. Presently, an individual is allowed to avail subsidized timber (4000 cft in log form or standing tree basis in log form) once in 25 years for new construction. Subsidized timber for repair/renovation/extension (700 cft in log or standing tree basis in log form) of rural house is supplied once in 12 years. For making shingles standing trees are supplied once in 3 to 5 years depending on the climatic condition of the locality. Subsidized timber for new construction/ reconstruction of rural houses is allotted in either log, sawn or standing tree form.
Based on the national statistics (Forest Facts and Figures), most of the timber extracted in the period of 2009 to 2015 have been supplied as subsidized timber (72%), followed by commercial timber (27%), and Royalty free timber (1%). Hence, from these statistics, subsidized timber allotment constitutes the largest share of timber extracted from the forests in Bhutan (Figure 20).
Source: From Forests Facts and Figures publications by Ministry of Agriculture and Forests m3 400,000 350,000
300,000 Subsidized 250,000 Free 200,000 ommercial 150,000 117,070 Annual average commercial 100,000 Annual average subsidized 41,914 50,000 0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Figure 22: Timber extracted from forests and supplied in Bhutan from 2009 to 2015 i re i er e tra ted fro forests and s ied in tan fro to Note: values in this graph exclude frewood, which is treated separately Source: From Forests Facts and Figures publications by Ministry of Agriculture and Forests ote: values in this graph exclude firewood, which is treated separately According to national statistics, the amount of timber (excluding frewood) between 2008-2015,According to nationalextracted statistics, from the amount country’s of timber forests (excluding and supplied firewood) inbetween the country 2008-2015, amount toextracted 1,127,059 from mthe3 country s or an annual forests and average supplied of in 161,008 the country m3 amount/ year to over 1,127,059m the same3 or an period. Thisannual is average equivalent of 161,008 to about m3/ year 19% over ofthe thesame estimated period. This sustainableis e uivalent to annual about 19% yield of the in the countryestimated (Gyeltshen, sustainable 2015). annual yieldThere in is the no country systematic ( yeltshen, evaluation 2015). Thereof the is impact no systematic of different typesevaluation of timber of the impactallotments of different on forest types ofdegradation. timber allotments However, on forest it degradation.is estimated However, that only a smallit is estimated percentage that onlyof forest a small areapercentage in the of countryforest area is in suitable the country for is producingsuitable for producing construction timberconstruction without timber compromising without compromising the principle the principleof sustainable of sustainable forest forestmanagement management (Tempa, 2011(Tempa, quoting 2011 uotingRGoB, R oB, 2011d). 2011d). The The restricting restricting factors factors onon overall overall forest forest productivity productivity are are economical,economical, technological, technological, social, social, and ecological and ecological in nature. in About nature. 24% Aboutof the forest 24% areas of the are forest areasunder arestrict under protection strict as protection they are ational – as arks,they ildlifeare National Sanctuaries, Parks, Strict Wildlife ature Reserves,Sanctuaries, Strictetc. about Nature 34% Reserves, of the area etc.; are very about steep 34% and ofa large the areapart falls are above very thesteep timber and line. a large Biological part falls abovecorridors the occupy timber about line. 9% Biological of the forest corridors areas, and occupy about 2%about are community9% of the forests.forest Hence,areas, and abouttimber 2% extraction are community is likely to be forests. concentrated Hence, in thetimber few remaining extraction feasible is likely areas, to which be concentrated is about in14% the (R oB, few remaining 2011d) of the feasible forest areas areas, Forest which Management is about nits14% (FM ) (RGoB, areas 2011d) and community of the forest areasforest – areas Forest inclusive. Management The concentration Units (FMU) of timber areas extraction and community in the few feasible forest areas would inclusive. inevitably result in forest degradation. Drivers of deforestation and forest degradation in Bhutan 69 In addition, the above estimates of timber extracted from the forests and supplied should be considered conservative since it does not include extraction that may not be documented, for example, unauthorised/ illegal extraction. Illegal timber extraction directly contributes to forest degradation due to several practical reasons. Firstly, being outright theft, it is done without employing sustainable forest management practices such as tree selection, correct felling, and forest rehabilitation after harvesting. Secondly, areas that may not necessarily be suitable or are due for harvesting can be targeted. Thirdly, those doing illegal logging are not necessarily
75 The concentration of timber extraction in the few feasible areas would inevitably result in forest degradation.
In addition, the above estimates of timber extracted from the forests and supplied should be considered conservative since it does not include extraction that may not be documented, for example, unauthorised/ illegal extraction. Illegal timber extraction directly contributes to forest degradation due to several practical reasons. Firstly, being outright theft, it is done without employing sustainable forest management practices such as tree selection, correct felling, and forest rehabilitation after harvesting. Secondly, areas that may not necessarily be suitable or are due for harvesting can be targeted. Thirdly, those doing illegal logging are not necessarily concerned with maximising wood extraction from felled trees, hence, substantial wastage results, implying more trees are felled for a desired volume of products. When looking at the concerned with maximising wood extraction from felled trees, hence, substantial wastage extent of forest offences reported in national statistics, in general, there has been an results, implying more trees are felled for a desired volume of products. increasing hen looking trend at in the all extent forest of forest offences offences across reported the in country national statistics, (Figure in 23) general, there has been an increasing trend in all forest offences across the country (Figure 23) Source: National Statistics 300 aro Thimphu 250 Mongar Samtse 200 unakha Bumthang 150 Ha Trashigang 100
o. of forest offences hhukha Samdrup ongkhar 50 angdue Sarpang 0 Dagana 2008-2009 2009-2010 2010-2011 2011-2012 2012-2013
Figure i re 23: Trends rends in in all a forest offen es offences a ross across a distri ts all districts in t e in o ntr the country in andin 2008 and 2013
Source: ational Statistics However, it cannot be concluded from these statistics to what extend offences are a directlyHowever, related it cannot to illegalbe concluded timber from extraction. these statistics However, to what extend recognizing offences a thedirectly importance related of respondingto illegal timber to illegal extraction. wildlife However, and recognizing timber poaching, the importance the of Governmentresponding to illegal exacted wildlife a new policyand in timber 2009 poaching, that allows the overnment employees exacted of DoFPS, a new and policy informers, in 2009 that to allows retain employees a portion of the fnesDoF S, for and any informers, crimes to retainthey ahelp portion detect. of the finesFor forwildlife any crimes poaching, they help informersdetect. For wildlife can retain 100%poaching, as a reward, informers while can retain for illegal 100% as logging a reward, informers while for illegal can retainlogging informers25%. This can mightretain help explain25%. why This moremight help cases explain have why been more reported cases have since been reported 2010 (ibid). since 2010 (i id).
The NECThe E State State of of the Environment Environment Report Report that the that ational the ForestNational Inventory Forest ( FI) Inventory that is currently (NFI) that is currentlyunderway underway will provide will a detailed provide picture a detailed on the forest picture structure on the including forest age, structure growth rates, including age, biomass, growth and rates, carbon biomass, stock by different and carbon species, soil stock carbon by and different the overall species, health of soil the forests. carbon and the overallIt is hoped health this driver of analysisthe forests. can provide It is furtherhoped insights this driver to support analysis an accurate can provideview of the further insightscountry s to support forests. Forest an accurate degradation view can be of further the country’s deduced from forests. available Forest anecdotal degradation evidence can be furtherfor example, deduced E references from available a DOF S analysis anecdotal from 2014evidence; that evaluated for example, the Forest NEC Management references a nits (FM ) and found that management prescriptions had not been consistently followed and DOFPS analysis from 2014 that evaluated the Forest Management Units (FMU) and four of the seven FM s assessed had harvesting levels beyond the annual allowable cuts (AA ). Furthermore, there was generally very low success of natural regeneration or re-plantation in 70 theseDrivers FM s of deforestation (R oB, 2016a). and forestThese degradation topics, further in Bhutan explored in the underlying driver section of this report, indicates that timber extraction is negatively impacting forests.
76 found that management prescriptions had not been consistently followed and four of the seven FMUs assessed had harvesting levels beyond the annual allowable cuts (AAC). Furthermore, there was generally very low success of natural regeneration or re-plantation in these FMUs (RGoB, 2016a). These topics, further explored in the underlying driver section of this report, indicates that timber extraction is negatively impacting forests.
Firewood
Firewood contributes the biggest share of energy for Bhutan - about 34% of total e energy consumed in the country; followed by electricity (28.1%); coal (19.1%); diesel (13.4%), petrol (3.2%), liquefed petroleum gas (1.1%), kerosene (1.0%) and others Firewood contributes the biggest share of(0.2%) energy (Gyeltshen, for Bhutan 2015). - about 34% of total energy consumed in the country followed by electricity (28.1%) coal (19.1%) diesel (13.4%), petrol (3.2%), li uefied petroleum gas (1.1%), keroseneSource: (1.0%) Dhital, and others2009 (0.2%) ( yeltshen, 2015). According to the Dhital (2009), the major Residential consumers are obviously Industrial, categories of firewood consumers are: Agriculture, 2% the number one category of consumers 13% in terms of total consumption residential, i.e., both rural and urban Institutional, because of a comparatively higher areas institutions including hotels, 10% per capita consumption of frewood schools, restaurants industries and at the household level. As shown in agriculture (Figure 17). Residential, 75% Figure 25, Bhutan has one of the highest per capita domestic fuel Residential consumers are obviously the wood consumption in the world. number one category of consumers in terms of total consumption because of a NRDCL supplies frewood from lops
and tops after timber extraction. comparatively higher per capita i reFigure a or 24: Major ate ories categories of fire ood of frewood NRDCL’s contribution to frewood consumption of firewood at the ons ers in consumers tan in Bhutan household level. As shown in Figure 25, needs is not demand based as it Bhutan has one of the highest per capita suppliesSource: Dhital, whatever 2009. is left behind after timber extraction (NRDCL, 2015). domestic fuel wood consumption in the Source: Gyeltshen, 2015 world. 20,000 80 74 18,000 18,249 RD L supplies firewood from lops and tops after timber extraction. RD L s contribution to 70 firewood needs is not demand based as it supplies16,000 whatever is left behind after timber extraction 64 60 ( RD L, 2015). 14,000 50 12,000 48 1,400 44 10,000 40 39 34 8,000 33 1,200 30 o. of fire incidences Forest areas burnt (ha) 6,000 6,222 1,000 4,927 20 4,000 4,532 3,769 4,413 10 800 2,000 1,704 0 0 600 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 (kg/year)
Forest fires Forest areas burnt (ha) Forest fires o. of fire incidences 400 Figure i re 25: orest Per firecapita in iden es frewood and areas consumption rnt in tan in Bhutan et een and to other developing nations/ territory er capita firewood firewood consumption capita er 200 Source: Department of Forests and ark Services/Ministry of Agriculture and Forests, 2014 2015.
0 Most fires are reported to occur between ovemberDrivers and April. of deforestation This is the time and whenforest theredegradation is in Bhutan 71 Bhutan epal minimal Maliprecipitation and Afghanistan persistent winds. anzibarIn addition, it is when farmers clear their farms and burn the agricultural residues, which contributes to fire breakouts. i re er a ita fire ood ons tion in tan and ot er deve o in nations territor Regionally, districts in the western and eastern regions have historically experienced more fires Source: yeltshen, 2015. than the southern and central regions. These difference can be attributed to forest types, with some forest types such as pine and oak forests being associated with high fuel loads during the dry season. Other factors could be differences in availability of support such as forest fire volunteers, Desung, armed forces, etc., and accessibility to forests fire, facilitated by the existence77 of approach roads. E notes that the significant spike in forest area burned in 2014 is due to a major fire event in angdue hodrang in early 2014, which resulted an almost four times the average annual area being burnt in that season.
e t
The grazing of livestock inside forests is an integral part of the farm production system in Bhutan. hile forests are mostly state owned, farmers have legal grazing rights in some of the forests. Sampdup et al., 2010 found that even in areas near the capital Thimphu, cattle graze in the tsamdros (registered grazing land) located near settlements as well as in the forests during the day. Livestock grazing, especially when done in an unregulated manner in terms of intensity and livestock numbers, is generally considered to negatively affect forests in Bhutan (ibid). However, some people argue that there is not enough systematic and uantitative assessment to support
80 In the short- and medium term, frewood will be the main source of energy, and is readily available in most parts of the country. Rural households consume more fuel wood than their urban counterparts. With only about 38.6% of the country’s population estimated to be urban, large quantities of frewood are consumed annually by the large rural population. Firewood accounted for 90% of the fuel mix of the residential segment in 2005, and decreased to 87% by 2014 (MoEA, 2016). The effciency of frewood devices is only 10%–15%. Firewood is mainly used for cooking, space heating, and lighting (RGoB, 2011a). Liquefed petroleum gas (LPG), along with electricity, and kerosene only accounts for 9% of fuels used, and this occurs mostly in urban areas. Further, LPG and kerosene are expensive, and only affordable for urban households. Though electricity has reached many rural areas, frewood is still preferred as it is a cheap and readily available source of energy. In addition, people in rural areas are allowed to collect dry frewood, free of royalty. Such collections are estimated to constitute 1% to 6% of the frewood supplied between 2009 to 2015.
Removal of trees as frewood from areas outside FMU’s and other management regimes is impacting negatively on the forest resources of the country – leading to forest degradation. According to national statistics (Forest Facts and Figures) the amount of frewood, which has been extracted from the country’s forests and supplied in the country amount to 594,552 m3 between 2009 and 2015 (Figure 26), or an annual average of 84,936 m3. This amount is equivalent to about 10% of the estimated sustainable annual yield in the country (Gyeltshen, 2015).
As a comparison, we estimated total frewood consumption using per capita consumption. Based on the Bhutan Energy Data Directory 2015 the total frewood consumption (including the residential, industry and transport sectors) in 2014 was 637,231.66 tonnes (MoEA, 2016). Divided by the total population of Bhutan in 2014, which was 745,153 (NSB, 2014), the per capita frewood consumption is 855 kg/year. This is still very high, however, showing a decreasing trend compared to previous fgures (see Figure 25 above). Using the weighted average wood density of 0.469 tonnes/m3 (FAO 2015), this calculates as 298,862 m3; this estimate is about 3.5 times higher than the estimates of frewood extracted and supplied, which are reported in the national statistics. This difference should simply highlight the diffculty of reliably estimating actual frewood extraction. Considering this alternative estimate, frewood extraction would equal to about 35 % of the estimated sustainable annual yield in the country.
Hence, the RGoB has realised that frewood extraction is degrading the forests, and has begun to promote fuel-effcient cook stoves, use of biogas, electric bulb cookers, 100 units free electricity to rural areas, and tax subsidy on appliances such as boilers and rice cookers to reduce forest degradation.
72 Drivers of deforestation and forest degradation in Bhutan
e
Firewood contributes the biggest share of energy for Bhutan - about 34% of total energy consumed in the country followed by electricity (28.1%) coal (19.1%) diesel (13.4%), petrol (3.2%), li uefied petroleum gas (1.1%), kerosene (1.0%) and others (0.2%) ( yeltshen, 2015). According to the Dhital (2009), the major Agriculture, 2% Industrial, categories of firewood consumers are: 13% residential, i.e., both rural and urban Institutional, areas institutions including hotels, 10% schools, restaurants industries and agriculture (Figure 17). Residential, 75%
Residential consumers are obviously the number one category of consumers in terms of total consumption because of a
comparatively higher per capita i re a or ate ories of fire ood consumption of firewood at the ons ers in tan household level. As shown in Figure 25, Bhutan has one of the highest per capita Source: Dhital, 2009. domestic fuel wood consumption in the world.
RD L supplies firewood from lops and tops after timber extraction. RD L s contribution to firewood needs is not demand based as it supplies whatever is left behind after timber extraction Source:( RD L, From 2015). Forests Facts and Figures publications by Ministry of Agriculture and Forests (see section 4.) 1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600 (kg/year)
400
er capita firewood firewood consumption capita er 200
0 Bhutan epal Mali Afghanistan anzibar
Figure i re 26: er Firewood a ita fire ood extracted ons tion from forests in tan and andsupplied ot er deve o in in Bhutan nations territor in 2008 to 2014
Source: yeltshen, 2015. Forest fres
Each year, signifcant forest areas burn in Bhutan. Fires originate from many sources, which may be both intentional, i.e., arson-type77 fre set purposely to destroy the forest, or unintentional, i.e., due to negligence, for example, fres from cropland clearing, logging, mining, camping, picnicking and quarrying activities. Almost all of the forest fres in the country are found to be caused by human, either accidentally or intentionally (NSSC, 2014). The DoFPS is directly responsible for forest fre management and it is supported by the armed forces, volunteers, Dessups, communities with resource mobilisation and legislation. Apart from degrading the forests, fres also pose a risk in terms of destruction of property, injuries, and even death.
From the national statistics, it is clear that the DoFPS is grappling with fre problems in the country. Between 2009 to2014, 334 fre incidences have been recorded in the country, with the forest areas affected totalling 43,817 ha, or an annual average of 6,260 ha. There are annual differences, however, with 2014 posting the most forest areas burnt in a single year in recent times (Figure 23).
Source: Department of Forests and Park Services/Ministry of Agriculture and Forests, 2014; 2015. 120000 100000 84936 80000 60000
Firewood Firewood 40000 20000 extracted/supplied (m3) extracted/supplied
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Figure i re 27: ire ood Forest free tra ted incidences fro forests and areasand s ied burnt in in tan Bhutan in between to 2009 to 2015
Source: From Forests Facts and Figures publications by Ministry of Agriculture and Forests (see section 4.)
Drivers of deforestation and forest degradation in Bhutan e t e 73
Each year, significant forest areas burn in Bhutan. Fires originate from many sources, which may be both intentional, i.e., arson-type fire set purposely to destroy the forest, or unintentional, i.e., due to negligence, for example, fires from cropland clearing, logging, mining, camping, picnicking and uarrying activities. Almost all of the forest fires in the country are found to be caused by human, either accidentally or intentionally ( SS , 2014). The DoF S is directly responsible for forest fire management and it is supported by the armed forces, volunteers, essups, communities with resource mobilisation and legislation. Apart from degrading the forests, fires also pose a risk in terms of destruction of property, injuries, and even death.
From the national statistics, it is clear that the DoF S is grappling with fire problems in the country. Between 2009 to2014, 334 fire incidences have been recorded in the country, with the forest areas affected totalling 43,817 ha, or an annual average of 6,260 ha. There are annual differences, however, with 2014 posting the most forest areas burnt in a single year in recent times (Figure 23).
79 Most fres are reported to occur between November and April. This is the time when there is minimal precipitation and persistent winds. In addition, it is when farmers clear their farms and burn the agricultural residues, which contributes to fre breakouts.
Regionally, districts in the western and eastern regions have historically experienced more fres than the southern and central regions. These difference can be attributed to forest types, with some forest types such as pine and oak forests being associated with high fuel loads during the dry season. Other factors could be differences in availability of support such as forest fre volunteers, Desung, armed forces, etc., and accessibility to forests fre, facilitated by the existence of approach roads. NEC notes that the signifcant spike in forest area burned in 2014 is due to a major fre event in Wangduephodrang in early 2014, which resulted an almost four times the average annual area being burnt in that season.
Livestock
The grazing of livestock inside forests is an integral part of the farm production system in Bhutan. While forests are mostly state owned, farmers have legal grazing rights in some of the forests. Sampdup et al., 2010 found that even in areas near the capital Thimphu, cattle graze in the tsamdros (registered grazing land) located near settlements as well as in the forests during the day. Livestock grazing, especially when done in an unregulated manner in terms of intensity and livestock numbers, is generally considered to negatively affect forests in Bhutan (ibid). However, some people argue that there is not enough systematic and quantitative assessment to support forest degradation claim especially for conifer forests as removal of herbaceous biomass by grazing enhances conifer species regeneration. However, grazing was found to reduce the number and density of broadleaved species (Sampdup et al., 2010 quoting Roder et al. 2002) – underlining the forest degradation impact of livestock grazing.
Despite government initiatives to encourage the rearing of smaller and more productive herds of livestock, local communities continue to maintain large herds as an immediate source of cash income, and to utilize leaf litter for farmyard manure, which is an important source of nutrients for farming. There were an estimated half a million cattle in Bhutan in 2014, although the numbers are reported to be slightly declining over time (RGoB, 2016a). Another reason for maintaining large herds is the strong religious sentiment against culling herds, and the social status associated with larger herds (NSSC, 2014).
Livestock intensifcation is expected to help reduce the gap between supply and demand of livestock products. Bhutan’s local cattle population is roughly 221,000 in 2014, while improved cattle numbers have increased 15% in the past few years to 83,000, while yaks have increased roughly 15% to almost 45,000 head (RGoB, 2015a). Cross breeding for dairy production is a major tool to intensify livestock production, and reduce the environmental load of livestock on common property resources. One study found that cross-breeds graze less in the forests and natural grasslands compared to local cattle, but cross-breeding was not found to reduce cattle numbers per farm (Sampdup et al., 2010).
Therefore, the impact of livestock grazing on forest degradation in Bhutan is arguably negative but localised, varying from place to place – depending on the forest types
74 Drivers of deforestation and forest degradation in Bhutan and grazing intensities. Grazing is generally acknowledged to be contributing to forest degradation, although available data cannot allow an accurate assessment of its impact. The NEC’s State of the Environmental Report also identifes over-grazing as a key driver/pressure on land resources (RGoB, 2016a). Therefore, the government is undertaking efforts to improve livestock management, e.g., supply of improved breed, enhancing pasture, and feed and fodder development programmes.
To estimate the impact of Livestock on forest degradation, the following assumptions are made for this study: With a cattle population of 500,000, the grazing density is about 1 cow for every 5 ha of forest. Compared with the estimated carrying capacity of 0.54 Livestock Units/ ha in Nepal for temperate rangelands associated with oak, mixed broad leaf, or blue pine forests (Pariyar 1995), the estimated grazing density in Bhutan on a national level is well below levels leading to signifcant degradation. However, on a regional level overgrazing might still occur in Bhutan.
3.3.5 Comparison statistical records with spatial results
The table below summarizes and compares the statistical records of forest degradation (not in including the improvement) attributed to the different drivers identifed above against the spatial analysis. Figures are presented as an annual averages of degradation, 3 either in annual areas affected or annual m degraded. In order to compare degradation data given in m3 and areas, all areas degraded have been converted into corresponding timber volumes in m3 using an average of 7.4 m3 per ha and year degraded. This is basedof 7.4 m on3 per the ha different and year degraded. average degradationThis is based on rates the ofdifferent crown average cover degradation changes (i.e. rates from of densecrown coverto open, changes medium-dense (i.e. from dense to open to open, and medium-densedense to medium to open dense and forests)dense to weighted medium accordingdense forests) to theweighted share accordingof these crownto the sharecover ofchanges these crown of the cover spatially changes assessed of the spatiallyannual degradationassessed annual rate degradation of 44,512 rate ha. of 44,512 ha.
Table 14: Comparison of the statistical records with spatial results for forest a e o arison of t e statisti a re ords it s atia res ts for forest de radation degradation Driver tatisti a re ords of atia ana sis of De radation in ann a de radation ann a de radation orres ondin a ear a ear ear
i er arvestin iven in m3 not available 161,008 ire ood iven in m3 not available 84,936 orest fires 6,260 ha not available 46,397 ivesto not available not available not available ota ann a de radation s atia ana sis 44,512 ha 329,911
Using sing thethe weighted weighted average average degradation degradation rate rate of 7.4 of 7.4m3/ha/year m3/ha/year the degradation the degradation based onbased the onspatial the analysisspatial analysisof annually of 44,512annually ha of44,512 forests ha in of Bhutan forests amounts in Bhutan to 329,911 amounts m3 perto 329,911 year. In mcomparison3 per year. to In this, comparison the sum of to annual this, degradationthe sum of annualof the drivers degradation in this study of the totals drivers 292,342 in this m3 studyper year. totals This results292,342 in am gap3 per of annualyear. This37,569 results m3, which in amight gap beof aannual combination 37,569 of unrecordedm3, which mightfirewood, be non-extracted a combination timber of unrecorded for instance frewood, from transmission non-extracted lines, as timber well as for un uantified instance fromdegradation transmission from livestock lines, as and well pest as and unquantifed disease. It hasdegradation to be noted, from that livestock these results and pest are andinterpreted disease. on It a hasnational to be level, noted, and thatthat thesedegradation results has are to interpretedbe further assessed on a national on a regional level, and that degradation has to be further assessed on a regional (district) level. (district) level.
Drivers of deforestation and forest degradation in Bhutan 75 The ranking of drivers of degradation is on the extent of timber volumes estimated to be affected annually by the drivers. In addition, the annual H emissions are estimated based on the average carbon stock change calculated in section 3.4.
a e an in of drivers of forest de radation
Driver nn a nn a an in in e tent de radation in e issions as a res t of deforestation orres ondin of forest de radation ear t e ear Timber harvesting 161,008 159,019 1st Firewood 84,936 83,886 2nd Forest fires 46,397 49,599 3rd Livestock not available not available 4th
82
of 7.4 m3 per ha and year degraded. This is based on the different average degradation rates of crown cover changes (i.e. from dense to open, medium-dense to open and dense to medium dense forests) weighted according to the share of these crown cover changes of the spatially assessed annual degradation rate of 44,512 ha.
a e o arison of t e statisti a re ords it s atia res ts for forest de radation
Driver tatisti a re ords of atia ana sis of De radation in ann a de radation ann a de radation orres ondin a ear a ear ear
i er arvestin iven in m3 not available 161,008 ire ood iven in m3 not available 84,936 orest fires 6,260 ha not available 46,397 ivesto not available not available not available ota ann a de radation s atia ana sis 44,512 ha 329,911
sing the weighted average degradation rate of 7.4 m3/ha/year the degradation based on the spatial analysis of annually 44,512 ha of forests in Bhutan amounts to 329,911 m3 per year. In comparison to this, the sum of annual degradation of the drivers in this study totals 292,342 m3 per year. This results in a gap of annual 37,569 m3, which might be a combination of unrecorded firewood, non-extracted timber for instance from transmission lines, as well as un uantified degradation from livestock and pest and disease. It has to be noted, that these results are interpreted on a national level, and that degradation has to be further assessed on a regional (district) level.
3.3.6 Ranking of degradation drivers The ranking of drivers of degradation is on the extent of timber volumes estimated to be affected The ranking of drivers of degradation is on the extent of timber volumes estimated to be annually by the drivers. In addition, the annual H emissions are estimated based on the affected annually by the drivers. In addition, the annual GHG emissions are estimated average carbon stock change calculated in section 3.4. based on the average carbon stock change calculated in section 3.4.
Table a e 15: an in Ranking of of drivers drivers of forestof forest de radation degradation Driver nn a nn a an in in e tent de radation in e issions as a res t of deforestation orres ondin of forest de radation ear t e ear Timber harvesting 161,008 159,019 1st Firewood 84,936 83,886 2nd Forest fires 46,397 49,599 3rd Livestock not available not available 4th
With regards to the ranking of drivers of degradation during the stakeholder consultation workshops, ith regards Figure to the 28 ranking summarizes of drivers the of total degradation scoring during from the all stakeholder regions for consultation the identifed driversworkshops, of degradation. Figure 28 summarizes A higher the scoring total scoring indicates from alla higherregions forrank the identifiedof a particular drivers of driver. degradation. A higher scoring indicates a higher rank of a particular driver. resent as well as Present as well as future ranks are presented. future ranks are presented. 82
Figure i re 28 summary s ar present resent and f t re future i a t impact s orin scoring of drivers of drivers of de radation of degradation as a res t as aof result e er ises d rin re iona of exercises ons tation during or s o s regional consultation workshops ith regards to forest degradation, the ranking by the stakeholders is similar to the findings of Withthis regards study timberto forest harvesting degradation, and firewood the extractionranking areby the ranked stakeholders highest. In addition, is similar illegal to the fndingslogging of and this livestock study; were timber ranked harvesting relatively high and by frewood the stakeholders. extraction are ranked highest. In addition, illegal logging and livestock were ranked relatively high by the stakeholders. 3.4 Estimation of carbon stock changes between 2000, 2010 and 2015 to quantify forest degradation
arbon stock changes have been calculated as the difference in carbon stock density (in tonnes Carbon stock changes have been calculated as the difference in carbon stock density O2 per ha) of different forest types and crown cover density. The estimation follows I (in tonnesmethodological CO2 per guidance ha) of with different the objective forest to types present and Tier crown 2 results. cover The followingdensity. assumptions The estimation followsand dataIPCC sources GPG weremethodological used to establish guidance average stocking with the volumes objective for each to forest present type andTier crown 2 results. The coverfollowing class. assumptions and data sources were used to establish average stocking volumesThe activity for each data forest(areas undertype anddifferent crown forest cover types) class. were taken from the IS analysis of this study and aligned with the recent L L 2016 and FI reporting. 76 Drivers of deforestation and forest degradation in Bhutan During the second mission early December 2016, the forest type specific stocking volume results of the ational Forest Inventory ( FI) became available. Therefore the results of two scenarios with different average stocking volumes are presented in this study:
enario : Stocking volumes from a database complied from forest management information FM s, working schemes and Fs
83 The activity data (areas under different forest types) were taken from the GIS analysis of this study and aligned with the recent LULC 2016 and NFI reporting.
During the second mission early December 2016, the forest type specifc stocking volume results of the National Forest Inventory (NFI) became available. Therefore the results of two scenarios with different average stocking volumes are presented in this study:
Scenario 1: Stocking volumes from a database complied from forest management information – FMUs, working schemes and CFs
Scenario 2: Stocking volumes derived from the latest NFI data aligned to the strata used in this study
For both scenarios, the stratum specifc average stocking volume (in m3/ha) can be found in the annex 5.
As a comparison, the carbon stock changes are compared with a simple Tier 1 IPCC default approach using the default factors from the Bhutan FAO FRA 2015 assessment (FAO 2015).
Scenario 1: Stocking volumes from a database complied from forest management information • A forest database was established summarizing forest type specifc numeric information from different Forest Management Units (FMUs) and Community Forest (CF) and working schemes (WS); • Reliable minimum estimates of stocking volumes from 95 Community Forest Management Plans, 47 Forest Management Units Plans, and 9 Working Schemes were used to derive average weighted stocking volumes (m3/ha) for the different forest types (broadleaf, conifer and mixed forests) and agro-ecological zones (Tropical humid, Temperate humid; Temperate humid all year, Boreal semi-dry, Boreal moist semi-arid, Boreal sub-humid). • Each of these strata was further sub dived into open forests, medium dense and dense forests and the stocking volumes was adapted using reduction factors based on scientifc publication (Tenzin & Hasenauer 2016) as well as references from similar forest types in neighbouring Indian states based on FSI data in India. Overall this resulted to around 50 different strata in Bhutan for which an average stocking volume was derived.
Scenario 2: Stocking volumes derived from the latest NFI data aligned to the strata used in this study
Based on the AEZs used in this study and the vegetation zoning of Bhutan (Chhetri 2011), the different forest types of the LULC and the NFI were allocated to the AEZ and forest types of this study in the following way:
• By merging the LULC 2016 forest types with the 2015 map of this study, the % shares of each LULC forest type within each AEZ and dominant forest class of this study were derived.
Drivers of deforestation and forest degradation in Bhutan 77 • Based on this, the average stocking volume results of the NFI for the different forest types were used to estimate weighted average stocking volumes in m3/ha for strata in this study • For each AEZ and dominant forest class in this study, the average crown cover 2015 was calculated. It is assumed that the average stocking volume estimated for a particular stratum represents this average forest crown cover for that stratum. The average crown cover for most strata ranges between 30-50%. • For the strata representing other crown cover classes than the average (in most cases dense and open forests) the stocking volumes was adapted in line with scenario 1 using reduction factors based on scientifc publication (Tenzin & Hasenauer 2016) as well as references from similar forest types in neighboring Indian states based on the same FSI data in India as above.
The stratum specifc stocking volumes of the two scenarios were used to derive the carbon stock changes from 2000 to 2015 - the changes are a result of the changing areas within the 50 strata as a result of crown cover increase or decrease. To convert volume into carbon the following Tier 2 default equations and factors were applied (State Forest Administration, China 20141): • Conversion stocking volume (V= m3/ha) to aboveground biomass (BAGB= t d.m./ha): o Broadleaf forests: BAGB = 3.322268 x V0.687013 o Conifer forests: BAGB = 3.2847715 x V 0.6885095 o Mixed conifer broadleaf forests: BAGB = 3.30351975 x V0.68776125 • Root –to-shoot ratios: o Broadleaf forests: 0.29 o Conifer forests: 0.27 o Mixed conifer broadleaf forests: 0.25 • Carbon fraction: o Broadleaf forests: 0.49 o Conifer forests: 0.51 o Mixed conifer broadleaf forests: 0.50 • Litter %: o Broadleaf forests: 3-5% (depending on the crown cover) o Conifer forests: 4-9% (depending on the crown cover) o Mixed conifer broadleaf forests: 3-4% (depending on the crown cover) • Deadwood fraction: Default of 2%
1 All values applied are from the State Forestry Administration (SFA 2013) in China which were compiled in the frame of the emerging domestic carbon market and the development of a forest accounting protocol for improved forest management activities throughout China. Te default equations and values were selected for climatic an ecological zones which match the conditions in Bhutan. Te Chinese methodology can be accessed here and the default equations and values can be found in the Annex of this Methodology.
78 Drivers of deforestation and forest degradation in Bhutan Results Scenario 1:
Table 16: Scenario 1 Analysis of carbon stock changes between 2000 and 2015 - Tier 2 approach
AsAs depicted depicted in TableTable 16, 16, in inscenario scenario 1, the 1, totalthe totalcarbon carbon budget budget within the within forest the areas forest of Bhutan areas ofhas Bhutan decreased has from decreased 841 million from t O 8412 to 836million million tCO2 t O2 towhich 836 results million in a tCO2decrease which of 4,432,012 results int O a decrease2 for the 15-year of 4,432,012 period. The tCO2 average for the annual 15-year decrease period. amounts The toaverage 295,467 annual t O2/year decrease which amountsis remarkably to 295,467 similar to tCO2/yearthe total annual which degradation is remarkably of the degradation similar todrivers the (295,544 total annual t O2, degradationsee Table 15). of In the terms degradation of the carbon drivers density (295,544 of Tree biomass tCO2, (abovesee Table and belowground15). In terms biomass) of the carbon density of Tree biomass (above and belowground biomass) the area weighted the area weighted carbon stock densities decreased from over 306 t O2/ ha in 2000 to 296 t O2/ carbon stock densities decreased from over 306 tCO2/ ha in 2000 to 296 tCO2/ ha in ha in 2015. This represents a reduction of 0.7 t O2 per ha per year. 2015. This represents a reduction of 0.7 tCO2 per ha per year.
As a comparison, the Tier 1 I approach results in a total of 1,102 M t O2 for the year 2000, As a comparison, the Tier 1 IPCC approach results in a total of 1,102 M tCO2 for the yearwhich 2000, reduces which to 1,082 reduces M t O to2 in1,082 2015. M This tCO2 corresponds in 2015. to This a reduction corresponds of 0.05 tot O a2 reductionper ha per ofyear. 0.05 tCO2 per ha per year.
es ts enario
a e enario na sis of ar on sto an es et een and ier a roa
Drivers of deforestation and forest degradation in Bhutan 79 86 Results Scenario 2:
Table 17: Scenario 2 Analysis of carbon stock changes between 2000 and 2015 - Tier 2 approach
Area 2000 (ha) Area 2015 (ha) 2.6 Mio 2.7 Mio
Tree Biomass CTREE 2000 2015 Scenario 2 Density CTREE_ha 386.0 369.8 Total Bhutan (tCO2-e) Total CTREE 1,016,241,551 1,001,879,458 2000 2015
Dead wood Cdead wood 2000 2015 Change Density CDW_ha 7.3 7.0 Annual Change Total CDW 19,105,341 18,835,333
Litter Clitter 2000 2015 Density CLI_ha 6.7 6.8 Total CLI 17,619,428 18,361,887
Scenario 2 2uses uses significantly signifcantly higher higher stocking stocking volumes volumes from the from FI thefor eachNFI forof theeach forest of the strata forest strata which results in overall higher total carbon budgets within the forest areas of which results in overall higher total carbon budgets within the forest areas of Bhutan. Bhutan. Nevertheless, the carbon budget has decreased from 1,052 million tCO2 to evertheless, the carbon budget has decreased from 1,052 million t O2 to 1,039 million t O2 1,039 million tCO2 which results in a decrease of 13,889,641 tCO2 for the 15-year which results in a decrease of 13,889,641 t O2 for the 15-year period. The average annual period. The average annual decrease in this scenario amounts to 925,976 tCO2/ year. decreaseAgain comparing in this scenario total annual amounts degradation to 925,976 in t O tCO22/ year. per year Again of comparing the degradation total annual drivers degradation(295,544 tCO2, in t O see2 per Table year of 15), the degradationa huge gap drivers is identifed (295,544 according t O2, see Table to this 15), scenario a huge gap as a isresult identified of the according signifcant to this higher scenario carbon as a result stock of thedensities significant and higher consequently carbon stock higher densities stock andchanges. conse uently The area higher weighted stock changes.carbon stockThe area densities weighted decreased carbon stock from densities over 386 decreased tCO2/ ha fromin 2000 over to 386 370 t O tCO2/2/ ha in ha2000 in to 2015. 370 t O This2/ ha represents in 2015. This a reductionrepresents aof reduction 1.1 tCO2 of per1.1 t Oha 2per peryear. ha per year.
In order order to tojustify justify the carbonthe carbon estimations estimations of this study, of this the estimationsstudy, the ofestimations different carbon of different pools calculatedcarbon pools from FIcalculated data (scenario from 2)NFI are datacompared (scenario with the 2) reported are compared carbon budgets with the of the reported FRA 2015carbon (table budgets 18). Overall of the the FRA carbon 2015 estimates (table 18). in this Overall study theare slightlycarbon lower estimates than the in reportedthis study estimates,are slightly the lower stratification than the and reported consistent estimates, analysis of the crown stratifcation cover classes and being consistent the main reason analysis forof crownit. This studycover indicates classes a being reduction the ofmain the total reason carbon for budget it. This as studya result indicates of degradation a reduction while theof theFAO totalstatus carbonreport indicates budget an as increase. a result of degradation while the FAO status report indicates an increase. a e o arison of tota ar on sto s esti ated for t is st d sin data it data a fi res in i ion etri tonnes of e
1,019 1,074 1,016 1,002
80 Drivers of deforestation and forest degradation in87 Bhutan
Area 2000 (ha) Area 2015 (ha) 2.6 Mio 2.7 Mio
Tree Biomass CTREE 2000 2015 Scenario 2 Density CTREE_ha 386.0 369.8 Total Bhutan (tCO2-e) Total CTREE 1,016,241,551 1,001,879,458 2000 2015
Dead wood Cdead wood 2000 2015 Change Density CDW_ha 7.3 7.0 Annual Change Total CDW 19,105,341 18,835,333
Litter Clitter 2000 2015 Density CLI_ha 6.7 6.8 Total CLI 17,619,428 18,361,887
Scenario 2 uses significantly higher stocking volumes from the FI for each of the forest strata which results in overall higher total carbon budgets within the forest areas of Bhutan. evertheless, the carbon budget has decreased from 1,052 million t O2 to 1,039 million t O2 which results in a decrease of 13,889,641 t O2 for the 15-year period. The average annual decrease in this scenario amounts to 925,976 t O2/ year. Again comparing total annual degradation in t O2 per year of the degradation drivers (295,544 t O2, see Table 15), a huge gap is identified according to this scenario as a result of the significant higher carbon stock densities and conse uently higher stock changes. The area weighted carbon stock densities decreased from over 386 t O2/ ha in 2000 to 370 t O2/ ha in 2015. This represents a reduction of 1.1 t O2 per ha per year.
In order to justify the carbon estimations of this study, the estimations of different carbon pools calculated from FI data (scenario 2) are compared with the reported carbon budgets of the FRA 2015 (table 18). Overall the carbon estimates in this study are slightly lower than the reported estimates, the stratification and consistent analysis of crown cover classes being the main reason for it. This study indicates a reduction of the total carbon budget as a result of degradation while the FAO status report indicates an increase.
Table 18: Comparison of total carbon stocks estimated for this study using NFI data a e o arison of tota ar on sto s esti ated for t is st d sin data it with FRA 2015 data (all fgures in million metric tonnes of CO2 e) data a fi res in i ion etri tonnes of e
1,019 1,074 1,016 1,002 19 19 161 165 18 18 87
is ana sis onfir s t e overa findin s of t is st d t at t e tota forest area as in reased This i e analysis t e a it confrms of forest the as de reased overall fndings i res tsof this in study o er ar onthat the densities total forest as e area as in has increased,de rease of t e while tota the forest quality ar on of d et forest has decreased, which results in lower carbon densities as well as in decrease of the total forest carbon budget. 4. Actors, motivations and underlying drivers
4.1 Methodology Underlying drivers are the complex interactions of fundamental, social, economic, political, nderlying cultural drivers areand the technological complex interactions processes of fundamentalthat infuence social, actors economic, to exert political, pressure oncultural forests. and technological These are referredprocesses tothat as influence indirect actors causes, to exert and pressure they areon forests. often distantThese are from theirreferred area to asof indirectimpact. causes, The andobjective they are for often identifying distant from underlying their area ofdrivers impact. ofThe deforestation objective andfor identifying forest degradation underlying drivers in Bhutan of deforestation was to andassess forest the degradation decisions in Bhutanand motivations was to assess that conceptuallythe decisions andand motivationspractically that infuence conceptually the direct and practically drivers identifed influence thein Chapter direct drivers 3. This processidentified relied in hapter on expert 3. This interviews process reliedwith stakeholders on expert interviews and key with government stakeholders departments, and key andgovernment in-depth departments, literature reviews. and in-depth This literaturechapter concludes reviews. This with chapter a correlation concludes between with a the directcorrelation drivers between and the directunderlying drivers anddrivers, the underlying in order drivers, to present in order the to causal present relationshipsthe causal betweenrelationships them. between them.
4.2 Actor and motivation analysis
AA rangerange ofof actors actors play play a role a role in or in have or havea stake a instake deforestation in deforestation and forest anddegradation. forest degradation. Below is Belowa general is framinga general of various framing actors, of varioustheir motivations, actors, theirand opportunities motivations, for positiveand opportunities engagement for positivetowards engagement REDD activities. towards In defining REDD+ policies activities. and measures In defning to addresspolicies driver and measures pressure, to addressconsideration driver will pressure, need to be considerationgiven to how AMs will shift need the to motivations be given of to actors how and PAMs influence shift the motivationsland use behaviour. of actors and infuence land use behaviour.
a e tors otivations o ort nities
tors Motivations Opportunities overnment agencies and public sector Department of Forests Sustainable management of Build on strong track record of Bhutan s and ark Services forests and conservation of conservation leadership Improve efficiency (DoF S) wild biodiversity resources in wood utilization and technology ational Environment Highest body overseeing Linkages to policy (and cross-sectoral ommission environmental priorities and strategies) and international climate management EIA/SIA finance assessments Drivers oversees of deforestation and forest degradation in Bhutan 81
88
19 19 161 165 18 18
is ana sis onfir s t e overa findin s of t is st d t at t e tota forest area as in reased i e t e a it of forest as de reased i res ts in o er ar on densities as e as in de rease of t e tota forest ar on d et
nderlying drivers are the complex interactions of fundamental social, economic, political, cultural and technological processes that influence actors to exert pressure on forests. These are referred to as indirect causes, and they are often distant from their area of impact. The objective for identifying underlying drivers of deforestation and forest degradation in Bhutan was to assess the decisions and motivations that conceptually and practically influence the direct drivers identified in hapter 3. This process relied on expert interviews with stakeholders and key government departments, and in-depth literature reviews. This chapter concludes with a correlation between the direct drivers and the underlying drivers, in order to present the causal relationships between them.
A range of actors play a role in or have a stake in deforestation and forest degradation. Below is a general framing of various actors, their motivations, and opportunities for positive engagement towards REDD activities. In defining policies and measures to address driver pressure, consideration will need to be given to how AMs shift the motivations of actors and influence land use behaviour.
Table 19: Actors, motivations, opportunities a e tors otivations o ort nities
tors Motivations Opportunities overnment agencies and public sector Department of Forests Sustainable management of Build on strong track record of Bhutan s and ark Services forests and conservation of conservation leadership Improve efficiency (DoF S) wild biodiversity resources in wood utilization and technology ational Environment Highest body overseeing Linkages to policy (and cross-sectoral ommission environmental priorities and strategies) and international climate management EIA/SIA finance assessments oversees Dzongkhag environment officers Department of eology Sustainable utilisation of otential for effective monitoring and and Mines (D M) mineral resources through ensuring environmental safeguards and Mines (D M) mineral resources88 through ensuring environmental safeguards policy guidance and adoption of best practices. Ministry of orks and Roads: Environment friendly Roads: Interested in climate-proofing road Human Settlement road construction infrastructure investments Departments of Human Human Settlement: sustainable Human Settlement: Sustainable in ational Settlements (DoHS) land use plan Land se lan, sees future urbanization as and Roads (DoR) providing the mandate atural Resources Timber extraction and Build capacity for sustainable forest Development marketing, lops and tops for management and utilization through orporation Limited firewood, extraction and improved wood harvesting and utilization ( RD L) supply of sand and boulders technology as its mandate is to harvest, transport and market timber Department of Sustainable utilization of Opportunity to collaborate in land use Agriculture (DoA) limited arable agriculture land planning for forest land (lease) capability and contribute to food self zoning for commercial agriculture within sufficiency purview of Land Act of Bhutan, 2007 (LA,2007) and Forest and ature onservation Act (F A, 1995), ational Environment rotection Act ( E A, 2000)and other relevant acts Department of Improved rangeland Opportunity to carry out assessment of Livestock (DoL) management, better livestock carrying capacity of rangelands, integrated genetics management through cross-sectoral involvement of livestock, agriculture and forestry. Ministry of Economic Defining goals for public Development of ational Land olicy and Affairs (MoEA) private sector development, land use plan, development of timber including hydropower, geology pricing,efficient, sustainable and viable and mines, and renewable timber industry and eco-tourism energy, cottage and small development industry Druk reen ower Hydropower development ollaborate with DoF S in terms of sharing orporation (D ) spatial data for river/forest area while project planning Bhutan ower Energy Development ith infrastructure development related orporation (B ) transmission lines. Direction to rural electrification and export, comes from Ministry Economic improved siting of transmission lines 82 Drivers of deforestation Affairs.and forest degradation ost determines in Bhutan routing can be over hilltops and intact forests
89
ross ational Has a strong policy mandate, 12th Five- ear lan how can climate and Happiness ommission key for cross-sectoral forests best align with other sector coordination priorities ational Land Land survey, cadastre, registry Land lease agreements, helping develop ommission Land se olicy (and Law), land use planning and zoning Dzongkhag eog ollaborate with forest offices in Administrations implementing various REDD AMs rivate sector Rural community Livelihoods, F collection otential for strengthening stewardship and participation of rural community in natural resource management while also providing them with alternative livelihood needs Small and medium oodbased industries is an otential for networking and support for enterprises important actor in wood local production systems, improved processing value chain and also efficiency of agriculture production and for private sector development value adding to forest products ood based industries Businesses/Trading otential for development of domestic technological capacity is not timber sector business, value addition of high, can t compete with Indian timber and improvement of technological producers on price and volume capacity Herders (tsamdro) Fodder collection, grazing land otential for stewardship strong, but access decreasing in number. Agricultural and F Agriculture farming system in Stewardship potential could be high due to producers non- Bhutan is subsistence and reliance on ecosystem services shifting cultivators, or integrated farmyard manure small scale or not and forest surrounding agri relying on leases farms are important source of nutrition for crop productivity and to sustain livestock production Agriculture producers - Land leases increasing and commercial expanding land area Mining uarry Extraction of mineral ollaboration with regional operators resources, business promotion government/local authorities key, and contributing to private sector effective EIA assessment and monitoring. development Ensure that rehabilitation of mined areas Service roviders EIA Services/ rivate Forest EIA assessment/private-owned forest (Forestry) lantation Establishment plantation establishment (may have subcontractors potential for export promotion) Bi-lateral or Multi- For those investing directly in Investment standards ( orld Bank
lateral Development driver activities, such as performance standards, ADB standards), Organizations hydropower development, opportunities for greater private motivation is economic investment (e.g. timber sector value- development. Some consider addition) social/environmental90 impacts, others are less concerned. ivil Society ivil Society Economic development, rovide better information/community organisations conservation, social and awareness, capacity, encourage Tarayana Foundation, cultural aspects of forest and community participation and collaboration F, others land use in managing forests and natural resources
The underlying driver analysis below will reference these actors and their motivations in the context of exploring the governance, social and economic forces that influence behaviour. Drivers of deforestation and forest degradation in Bhutan 83
Expert and stakeholder interviews, along with a literature review, suggest a range of governance aspects that are unpacked here along the following topics:
Decisions without integrated planning and guidelines, particularly related to cross-sector alignment or conflict (sub-issue is lack of spatial planning guidance) Implications of expanding hydropower apacity constraints, including law enforcement and controlling illegal activity Rural timber allotment and pricing/subsidies limate change is not yet fully mainstreamed into development planning
e de ision a in on r an deve o ent and infrastr t re e ansion is o rrin in a ie e ea a roa it o t t e on ter nationa s atia annin o i As per SRFL allotments for various uses (hydropower, transmission lines, roads, etc.) identified in the direct driver section of this report, there are hundreds of decisions that are made on development at project levels, with input from line ministries and approval by local government, but lacking guidance by policy, decision-criteria, and spatially-explicit sector master plans to guide decisions, particularly when there are potential trade-offs. umerous interviewees noted the scientific and technological limitations in these decision-making processes.
e tora onf i t a ears to o e fro t e and t definin t e ode of de ision a in on and se a o in for s division and easin it o t a idan e de ision a ers fee is ne essar L s mandate is for land administration, management, surveying and mapping. hile the L recognizes the challenge on the land from increased lease applications, it cannot provide policy directions as broader guidance has to come from line agencies and H . But line agencies and H interviewed indicate a disconnection between the sectors in shared planning,
91 The underlying driver analysis below will reference these actors and their motivations in the context of exploring the governance, social and economic forces that infuence behaviour.
4.3. Governance challenges and law enforcement
Expert and stakeholder interviews, along with a literature review, suggest a range of governance aspects that are unpacked here along the following topics:
• Decisions without integrated planning and guidelines, particularly related to cross- sector alignment or confict (sub-issue is lack of spatial planning guidance) • Implications of expanding hydropower • Capacity constraints, including law enforcement and controlling illegal activity • Rural timber allotment and pricing/subsidies • Climate change is not yet fully mainstreamed into development planning
4.3.1 Decisions without integrated planning and guidelines, particularly related to cross-sector alignment or confict (sub-issue is lack of spatial planning guidance)
The decision-making on urban development and infrastructure expansion is occurring in a piecemeal approach without the long-term national spatial planning policy. As per SRFL allotments for various uses (hydropower, transmission lines, roads, etc.) identifed in the direct driver section of this report, there are hundreds of decisions that are made on development at project levels, with input from line ministries and approval by local government, but lacking guidance by policy, decision-criteria, and spatially-explicit sector master plans to guide decisions, particularly when there are potential trade-offs. Numerous interviewees noted the scientifc and technological limitations in these decision-making processes.
Sectoral confict appears to come from the Land Act defning the mode of decision making on land use, allowing for subdivision and leasing, without all guidance decision-makers feel is necessary. NLCS mandate is for land administration, management, surveying and mapping. While the NLCS recognizes the challenge on the land from increased lease applications, it cannot provide policy directions as broader guidance has to come from line agencies and GNHCS. But line agencies and GNHCS interviewed indicate a disconnection between the sectors in shared planning, implementation and decision making processes. This appears to be the case for decisions on agricultural leases, despite the existence of ‘Interim Guidelines on Lease of SRFL for Commercial Agriculture (2011)’. After the Land Act was amended, that allowed leasing of SRFL for commercial agriculture, the number of leasing applications for new leases such as cardamom plantations, has increased over the years. The local governments do not have the means to limit these applications, so NLCS instituted a temporary ban in order to provide space to identify solutions. The new Forest and Nature Conservation Rules and Regulations (2017) provide guidance on forestry clearances for allotments or leases of SRFL.
Government agencies are pursuing development in sectoral approaches, placing competing pressure on the land, but without the most effective means to identify how the plans and programs of one sector will affect that of others. Unfortunately, no clear mechanism exists to harmonise actions to avoid or mitigate
84 Drivers of deforestation and forest degradation in Bhutan conficts. Examples of competition between agricultural land and urban uses were often cited by interviewees. Decisions made at local levels require sectoral coordination at local levels, but that appears to be weak, despite the work of Committees. The NLCS recognizes the need for long-term vision to guide the direction of land management, but may not have adequate spatial or sectoral guidance.
Guidance and planning among agencies is limited. The Department of Urban Planning and Development shared examples of information on wildlife corridors coming too late into local committee decision-making. Druk Green Power Corporation (DGPC) identifed that they do not have a map of important watersheds or prioritized watershed values to help guide their review of plans for hydropower development. DGPC indicated that if they had information on critical watershed areas, they would be willing to bring that information into their mapping and information systems. The interviews with various ministries identifed that while a lack of information sharing among ministries exists, there is a willingness for more integrated planning and decision-making, if such information were available.
Environmental Impact Assessments (EIAs) cannot be expected to replace sector policies, plans and guidelines. While there is strong interest within government to complete EIAs for development projects, indications are that EIA processes in some cases occur after the project concept is agreed to, not all EIAs are made publicly available, and the cumulative impacts of multiple projects within large watersheds has not systematically occurred. When Bhutan and India signed the 2006 Umbrella Agreement for hydropower development (10 mega-projects), feasibility studies and detailed project reports were commissioned, and agreements between the governments forged on that basis. The environmental and social impact assessment occurred after the signing of the agreement. The Project Authorities for Punatsangchhu I, Punatsangchhu II and Mangdechhu hydro projects conducted EIAs which are available from NECS, if requested. Though a National Integrated Water Resource Management Plan was prepared in 2016 to help ensure water resources are protected, conserved and managed equitably, and a Bhutan Water Security Index (BWSI) was developed in 2015, integrated basin impact assessments have not been found, and decisions appear to be on a site-by-site basis. One example is the EIAs prepared for the Kuri-I Hydropower Project (1150 MW), which includes assessment of project-related impacts, but the only impact assessed beyond the footprint of the project site was the potential for a dam burst (DGPC, 2015).
4.3.2 Implications of expanding hydropower
Expansion of hydropower facilities will have increasing impacts on forests due to facility siting and related infrastructure. Government is trying to address forest loss due to hydropower projects by requiring compensatory afforestation to be undertaken. The legal framework stipulating compensation for environmental damage is the Environmental Assessment Act, 2000. The practice is to require two trees be planted for each tree cut. Furthermore, two mechanisms exist to offset the impacts of hydropower development: a) a plough-back mechanism of 1% of the royalty is to be paid to the MoAF on annual basis for sustainable management of watersheds (RGoB, 2017; RGoB, 2008b), although this is yet to be operationalised, and b) compensatory plantation development is to be provided at the time of project development, which in practice has been a ‘thumb rule’ of double the area taken up by the project for development activities (RGoB, 2017). The
Drivers of deforestation and forest degradation in Bhutan 85 afforestation and other activities under the ambit of Environmental Management Plan of Hydropower projects are only for project periods, whereas these activities require continuous funding for long-term maintenance. The afforestation activities will now to be managed by the Green Bhutan Corporation Ltd., formed in 2017, in collaboration with DoFPS and local government.
There are plans for 18,380 MW of hydropower to be developed, and the fnancial pressures that drive the scale of this development is a key underlying driver. Further, Hydropower currently accounts for more than 40% of Bhutan’s national revenue and 25% of gross domestic product (GDP). Revenue from hydropower exports to India will help offset the reductions in donor support (RGoB, 2013). However, hydropower’s contribution to Bhutan’s national budget has reduced while external debt has increased and hydropower now accounts for 60% of that debt and negotiated prices India buys power at are below commercial values (Ogino and Hamanaka, 2011). The steady increase in domestic demand (estimated to increase 17% per year (Ogino and Hamanaka, 2011) for energy will continue to eat into projected export revenues (DGPC, 2014), partially due to the rural subsidies of electricity in Bhutan. The prioritization of hydropower development as the primary source of foreign exchange and economic development is clear. The fnancial commitment associated with hydropower expansion is a potent underlying driver that will put pressure on the country’s forests.
4.3.3 Capacity constraints and/or weak management, including law enforcement and controlling illegal activity
Capacity constraints appear to occur on a range of levels. Interviews with DoFPS indicate that capacity in numbers of staff is adequate, but the enrichment of knowledge and capacity to implement policies on the ground are needed. This is particularly the case with knowledge about climate change impacts and adaptation and wood utilization and technology. Interviewees also specifcally noted the knowledge and governance capacity needs at local governance scales, comprised of 20 Dzongkhags containing 205 Geogs. The feld offces of DoFPS develops and implements all forestry plans and programs. Almost all approving and monitoring responsibilities have been decentralized to the DFO/CFOs and Range Offcers, and only matters that are beyond the control of local authorities are forwarded to the Department and Ministry (Department of Forests and Park Services, 2011). The Field Offces will be the local level administration for REDD+ activities. This is the level at which many sectoral trade-offs will be addressed in the future, particularly as local governments fgure out how to deliver on the National Economic Development Policy which relies on the ‘fve jewels’—hydropower, agriculture, cottage and small industries, tourism and mining (RGOB, 2016b).
Despite the existence of policies, effective management plans are lacking. A critique in the National Biodiversity Strategies and Action Plan notes that while forestry legislations require all areas under state forest to be strategically guided by sustainable management plans, as of 2014, only 6.4% of the SRFL under Forest Management Units and Working Schemes and 2.2% under Community Forests have well formulated resource management plans (RGoB, 2014).
Law enforcement and stemming illegal activity is an increasing challenge. The majority of the forest offences in Bhutan seem to be small-scale and opportunistic.
86 Drivers of deforestation and forest degradation in Bhutan However, there also appear to be some illegal logging in isolated instances in places such as Paro and Sarpang, and cross-border smuggling into India (RGoB, 2015b).
The Ministry of Agriculture and Forests identifed in the 11th Five Year Plan Mid-Term Review (2015b) that the number of forestry offences is the primary ‘at risk’ indicator given the number of wildlife and illegal timber crimes detected. The Ministry fnds that unpredictable and effcient patrolling by forestry staff and strong community based informers leads to high detection rates, but the number of incidences means the underlying reasons for it are not being adequately addressed.
The demand for valuable timbers is identifed by the Anti-Corruption Commission of Bhutan as one of the main reasons for illegal felling of trees. This is further facilitated by abundance of chain saws, which enable illegal or unauthorized felling. The Anti- Corruption Commission of Bhutan recommended that the DoFPS consult with the Ministry of Economic Affairs to identify how to control people from owning numerous power chain saws in villages, and suggested that Introduction of a licensing system for chainsaws may be an option (ACC, 2009). The Forest and Nature Conservation Rules and Regulations 2017 now contain provisions in Section 20.3 mandating that power chainsaw owners register with the Department for operating power chainsaws, and all registered saw mill/portable saw millers/power chainsaw owners shall saw rural timber only after obtaining sawing permission from the nearest Range Offce (RGoB, 2017). It will be important to monitor the effectiveness of this recent policy change.
4.3.4 Rural subsidized timber allotment
The Rural Subsidised Timber Policy was designed to provide building supplies to rural communities for rural housing and related needs, and has directly helped address poverty. Based on expert interviews, there is growing discomfort with this system of entitlement, which may have been more appropriate when wood houses needed to be rebuilt every 25 years, and repairs every 12 years, but with the application of more modern building techniques this may no longer hold true. The concept of entitlement itself may need to be updated, as it is based on demand from the benefciaries, not what the forest can sustainably provide, and local people are not involved in the management of the forest, and therefore are not aware of the relationship between their entitlement and sustainable use of the forest around them (Tempa, 2011). There is also concern that the entitlement competes with community forestry, which is a local forest governance approach that relies on local community management.
The Ministry of Agriculture and Forests (RGoB, 2011d) already identifed major challenges regarding the rural timber allotment policy including: • The overall resource base of forests in Bhutan for commercial timber production is very limited given the large area of protected areas, and very remote and very steep mountain terrain. Basically, only around 14% of the total forest area is considered capable of supplying quality construction timber. • The demand for construction timber in rural areas is very high and is increasing. With the rapid economic development taking place in various parts of the country, the need for housing has gone up substantially. Houses are constructed particularly in suburban areas for rental and commercial purposes. Some pre- existing households in suburban areas are still allotted subsidized timber. • The present allotment system has many loopholes that provide opportunities for
Drivers of deforestation and forest degradation in Bhutan 87 diverting the rural subsidized timber to urban markets, basically relabeling it as commercial timber. This is incentivized by the price difference between rural and commercial timber which has widened.
Though the amount of timber supplied to serve the subsidy has changed from year to year, with a high in 2015, the amount is generally 72% of overall timber harvested. In 2015, DoFPS Forest Facts & Figures indicate that out of a total of 340,254 m3, only 18,380 m3 accounted for commercial use, whereas rural use amounted to 321,780 m3, or 95% of the total supply.
The spatial analysis of degradation on a district level reveals insights with regards to this sanctioned degradation. If we analyze which district experienced the highest relative degradation (% areas of degradation subject to the specifc forest areas of that district) shows that degradation ranges between 16% and 33% for all districts, or on average, 26% of a particular district forest area. This means that throughout Bhutan, similar degradation occurs which is rather independent from different user groups, biophysical conditions, etc.
35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0%
i reFigure 29: are Share of of de radation degradation inin relationre ation to to the t e specifc s e ifi direct-wise dire t ise forest forest areas areas
TheThe Anti-Corruption Anti- orruption Commission ommission (ACC)(A ) identified identifed that that periodic periodic entitlements entitlements may may be suitable, the be monitoring suitable, the of entitlements monitoring was of entitlements problematic, wasand there problematic, was no implementation and there was of no the Forest and implementation ature onservation of the Forest Rules and (2006), Nature sub-section Conservation 8 of Rules section (2006), 97, wheresub-section it states 8 of that the civil sectionauthorities 97, where and it forestrystates that officials the civil should authorities check and the forestry utilization offcials of should the timbers. check The lack of themonitoring utilization leadof the to timbers.the inability The oflack officers of monitoring to monitor lead the to allotment the inability eligibility of offcers time-gap criterion to (A ,monitor 2009). the allotment Besides effectiveeligibility monitoring,time-gap criterion the A (ACC, also 2009).identified Besides that having effective ewog officers monitoring,involved inthe monitoring ACC also identifedwas a conflict that havingof interest, Gewog and offcers therefore involved recommended in monitoring that only forest wasofficers a confict should of interest, have that and responsibility. therefore recommended ara number that 323 onlyin the forest F RR offcers (2017) should states, that, pon haveutilization, that responsibility. the applicant Para shall number obtain a323 certificate in the FNCRR from the (2017) up andstates, submit that, to “Upon the FO stating the utilization,utilization the status applicant of the shall subsidized obtain atimber. certifcate The from forestry the Gupofficials and shallsubmit check to the the CFO utilization of the statingtimber the from utilization time to status time, of indicating the subsidized that the timber. FO nowThe forestry is the sole offcials monitor shall (not check the elected local thegovernment utilization of official), the timber and from therefore time to thetime,” concern indicating that thatA the initially CFO nowraised is theover sole civil authorities monitorhaving (not a role the inelected monitoring local government has been addressed. offcial), and therefore the concern that ACC initially raised over civil authorities having a role in monitoring has been addressed. The A noted that the loaning of timber should be disallowed, as it was found to be one of the major difficulties faced during the course of monitoring by forestry staff (A , 2009). aragraph 88321Drivers (3) of ofdeforestation the F RR and forest (2017) degradation has in incorporated Bhutan this change. The Rules provide for the establishment of forestry check-posts at strategic locations.
One of the important changes to the F RR of 2017 is that rather than having a standing tree basis for the allotment from RD L, there is now a volume based allotment in standing or log form (irrespective of the re uirement of Drashings, ham, tsims, shingle, dangchung). The Rule allows for differentiation between whether a household plans for a one- or two-story house (2,000 or 4,000 cft respectively). There will be a need for ade uate capacity at field level to calculate this when allotments are made, to ensure this rule is followed.
96 The ACC noted that the loaning of timber should be disallowed, as it was found to be one of the major diffculties faced during the course of monitoring by forestry staff (ACC, 2009). Paragraph 321 (3) of the FNCRR (2017) has incorporated this change. The Rules provide for the establishment of forestry check-posts at strategic locations.
One of the important changes to the FNCRR of 2017 is that rather than having a standing tree basis for the allotment from NRDCL, there is now a volume based allotment in standing or log form (irrespective of the requirement of Drashings, Cham, tsims, shingle, dangchung). The Rule allows for differentiation between whether a household plans for a one- or two-story house (2,000 or 4,000 cft respectively). There will be a need for adequate capacity at feld level to calculate this when allotments are made, to ensure this rule is followed.
Given the recent positive changes to the FNCRR of 2017, there may be little political appetite to further reform Rural Subsidized Timber. Reforming this policy is politically sensitive and socially challenging, because it is an important institution for rural livelihoods. But not doing anything can have even far reaching impacts on the forest resources which are the generational assets. There are several strategies that need to be considered. One of these involves the option to phase out rural subsidized timber to be replaced by community forestry. Other policy ideas involve strengthening oversight and monitoring, or more ambitious reforms on the rules governing rural timber supply.
It may be extremely diffcult to ‘fool proof’ the allocation and monitoring procedures to ensure that timbers are approved and utilized only for the intended purposes. Allowing for some time to implement the new Forest and Nature Conservation Rules will be necessary, in order to assess how effective these changes are. But even if these changes are effective, the remaining question regarding effective forest management for long term sustainability in the context of serving an entitlement system remains.
4.3.5 Climate change is not yet fully mainstreamed into development planning
There is clear recognition that climate change is having an impact on Bhutan’s forests, water systems, glacial fows, and agricultural production (RGoB, 2015c; NSSD, 2013). Available data suggests that localized impacts of climate change are occurring, as identifed by the Sectoral Adaptation Plan of Action (SAPA) of 2016. A Global Environment Facility project, implemented by the government in collaboration with the UNDP, is helping to address decreasing water volumes. Bhutan also completed a National Adaptation Plan of Action (NAPA) in 2006 and is working on a National Adaptation Plan (NAP) to help prioritize medium- to long-term climate risks and appropriate response measures. However, the policy and arrangements to address climate aspects are not refned yet, though in the RNR Sector Adaptation Plan of Action 2016 provides an updated view on potential impacts and adaptation strategies (RGoB, 2016d). The INDC submitted to the UNFCCC notes that since the intended actions in the INDC apply to the post 2020 period, the priority mitigation and adaptation actions within the INDC will be considered and integrated in the preparation of the 12th Five Year Development Plan (2018‐2023) and also subsequent fve-year plan periods (RGoB, 2015c). Related to governance in the context of mitigation and adapting to a changing climate, many studies suggest a strong need to bring both biodiversity conservation and the management of forests as carbon sinks into the Forest Act (RGoB, 2014b; Wangdi et al, 2013) including the need to deliver on the enrichment of knowledge and
Drivers of deforestation and forest degradation in Bhutan 89 capacity development on climate impacts, mitigation and adaptation all the way to the village levels.
4.4 Economic, social, poverty and tenure aspects
4.4.1 Poverty
The cycle of poverty in some regions and rural areas (and perhaps increasingly in urban areas, too) in Bhutan is a noted underlying driver that is interconnected with land degradation and food security. That said, Bhutan’s poverty reduction in the last decade has been rapid, broad-based, and inclusive. Between 2007 and 2012, the poverty rate halved and Bhutan has almost ended extreme poverty. Incidences of poverty are not distinguishable between landless and small or marginal land holders, and there is speculation this could be due to landless households engaged in agriculture are able to lease-in land and the share of produce to tenants has risen, while lessors have found non-farm occupations or have emigrated from rural areas (National Statistics Bureau, 2014). Interviews indicated that pressures to degrade forests is strong, both for economic and practical reasons.
Poverty also relates to dependence on wood fuel. Separate plantations dedicated to fuel wood production do not exist, and some regions experience a surplus of fuel wood, while others have a defcit. Despite many people using stoves for heating and cooking, the energy effcient stoves are not preferred by users, as they also use the stoves for household heating. The Department of Livestock has explored the promotion of biogas, but there are challenges such as metal rusting. Another attempt made by the Ministry of Economic Affairs, which has piloted 900 eco-stoves. The programme is now rolling out in four districts, but the budget is not large enough to expand to other areas.
4.4.2 Demographic factors
By 2030, 50% of Bhutanese will be urban, according to UN population statistics. The Department of Agriculture has observed migration from the East and Central areas to Western areas, with farm abandonment occurring in areas experiencing outmigration, especially in economically depressed areas where people are not able to produce enough food on their farms. Many of the abandoned farmlands are former slash-and-burn cultivation lands, some of which are reverting back to shrubland (and then forest) and see increasing wildlife confict.
Interviewees and the 11th Five Year Plan also indicate that nomadic herding is on the decline, due to the lack of economic gains from this and availability of other alternatives. The herding culture is becoming less attractive to the younger generations, and it is feared this traditional practice could become extinct, also compromising the integrity of the biodiversity resources in the high land areas (RGOB, 2013). Reduced grazing has resulted in the juniper forest expanding into old grazing lands, thereby increasing woody biomass.
Due to the Land Act of 2007 and resultant land reforms, issues related to forest land tenure (besides tsamdro and tseri use) such as customary land rights and land tenure in general were not identifed in the expert interviews as a key underlying driver. This indicates that customary rights holders in Bhutan can access forests for
90 Drivers of deforestation and forest degradation in Bhutan their needs to the extent that forests continue to support livelihoods and local uses. Common property resources (CPR) are the key for subsistence of smallholders, and appears to be quite well organized. Addressing changes to tenure arrangements to support REDD+ objectives and goals is therefore not a priority.
5. Opportunities for “+” activities
Based on observations of activities that degrade the forest (rural timber allotment, frewood collection, etc.), this section identifes some ineffciencies in current forest management that leads to increased forest degradation and loss of carbon, and opportunities for improved management to increase forest quality and carbon storage.
A redefnition of the forest management system is one means to achieve this. Bhutan has over 51.44% of its land area under protected areas network system, besides other forest defned as Forest Management Units, Working Schemes, Local Forest Management areas, Community Forests, and there are also Watershed Management Plans and Wetland Management Plans. But within all of these areas, more attention could be paid to defning protection for high carbon stock/high conservation value forest, areas suitable for sustainable management, areas suitable for forest loss, and areas suitable for increasing forest cover and carbon enhancement. For example, steep, ecologically sensitive areas could be dedicated to protection to conserve carbon stocks, while afforestation, reforestation and enrichment planting could be promoted in degraded and barren areas. The intensifcation of sustainable management for timber and NWFPs would be suitable in forests with higher production potential.
Forest areas outside existing management regimes, and that comprise the major source of timber supply, are not as well-managed as FMUs. These are opportunity areas for better management, and therefore increased carbon stocks. That said, even within FMUs, there is room for improvement. Evaluation reports of FMUs under operation revealed varying degrees of compliance failures during implementation. Regeneration of harvested forest areas in FMUs have only average survival status, and the scientifc principles applied in silvicultural operations of forests have been criticized as a ‘one size fts all approach.’
There may be potential for Community Forests to participate in increasing carbon stocks, particularly in degraded areas, or where there could be good economic value for communities to invest in increasing forest carbon stock, such as economically valuable timber production in the warm, humid broadleaf forests. Community forests have faced challenges when established on degraded lands, and then have not been able to sustain themselves. Community Forests are a means to provide multiple benefts for local livelihoods, conservation and biodiversity, and helps forge a management and stewardship link between people and the forests around them. There are 676 CFs covering 75,299 ha of forest land and involving 28,239 rural households as of 2016. The total number of executive members indicates there are 2455 males and 539 females (Source: FIMS, DoFPS). As of 2013, about one third of all rural households in Bhutan are members of a CFMG. In some Dzongkhags, more than half of all rural households are members of a CFMG. However, the progress of the CF program has been largely judged by number of CFs created rather than the quality of plans and impacts of CF management. This is an area for improvement, and could bring direct land stewardship and economic benefts.
Drivers of deforestation and forest degradation in Bhutan 91 Interestingly, one of the best ways for Bhutan to increase its forest carbon stocks is to maintain its wood imports. A 2015 assessment found that the trade in wood products with India resulted in the net displacement of 27% of the total volume of wood nterestin products consumed one of t e in est Bhutan a s for between tan to 1996–2011. in rease its Whileforest ar on prior tosto s 2009, is to Bhutan’s aintain domestic demand was largely met by domestic supply, after 2009, urban demand its ood i orts. A 2015 assessment found that the trade in wood products with India resulted greatly outstripped supply, and imports increased. By 2011, the majority of wood inproducts the net consumed displacement (excluding of 27% of frewood) the total in volume Bhutan of was wood from products India, consumedand the majority in Bhutan of betweenthat was 1996 2011.wood charcoal. hile Bhutan prior to has 2009, imported Bhutan s increasing domestic quantities demand was of wood largely charcoal met by domesticfrom India supply, to process after 2009, calcium urban carbide demand and greatly ferrosilicon, outstripped which supply, is then and exported imports increased. to India. ByMost 2011, Indian the majority wood likely of wood has products originated consumed from tree (excluding plantations firewood) in inIndia. Bhutan Jadin was et from al India,(2015) and postulate the majority that of since that wasBhutan wood has charcoal. few tree Bhutan plantations has imported and veryincreasing valuable uantities natural of woodforests, charcoal the net from international-level India to process calcium ecological carbide impacts and ferrosilicon, of this landwhich use is then displacement exported to India.should Most be viewedIndian wood as positive. likely has originated from tree plantations in India. adin et al (2015) postulate that since Bhutan has few tree plantations and very valuable natural forests, the net international-levelJadin et al (2015) ecological construct impacts a picture of this of imports/exports land use displacement and production/consumption,should be viewed as positive. which helps decipher the signifcant gap between wood demand in Bhutan, and the adinamount et al of (2015) that whichconstruct is supplieda picture ofby imports/exportsNRDCL and DoFPS and production/consumption, (refer to fgure 25(b).) whichTotal production is divided between the two agencies responsible for production, while total helps decipher the significant gap between wood demand in Bhutan, and the amount of that consumption is divided among rural and urban areas. Figure 25 (a) depicts annual which is supplied by RD L and DoF S (refer to figure 25(b).) Total production is divided between imports and exports between 1996 and 2011, with positive bars corresponding to theimports, two agencies and negative responsible bars for corresponding production, while to totalexports. consumption By far isthe divided largest among imports rural andare urbanwood areas.charcoal, Figure while 25 (a)‘‘other depicts products’’ annual imports includes and anything exports betweenthat is not1996 wood and 2011,charcoal, with positivelogs, or bars sawn corresponding and chipped to imports, wood. and Thus, negative “other bars products” corresponding includes to exports. veneer By sheets, far the largestplywood, imports wood are packing, wood charcoal, wood pulp, while uncoated other products Kraft paper includes and paperboard,anything that clay-coatedis not wood charcoal,paper and logs, paperboard, or sawn and and chipped wooden wood. furniture. Thus, otherThe categories products targeted includes by veneer the ban sheets, on plywood,export of wood timber packing, in primary wood pulp,form, uncoated ‘‘logs’’ and raft ‘‘sawn paper and and chippedpaperboard, wood,’’ clay-coated are grouped paper andtogether. paperboard, and wooden furniture. The categories targeted by the ban on export of timber in primary form, logs and sawn and chipped wood, are grouped together. Source: Jadin et al, 2015.
i reFigure 30: a nn a (a) Annual i orted imported and ande orted exported antities quantities of t e of tenthe ainten main forest forest rod ts products traded tantraded by et een Bhutan between and 1996 in and ro nd 2011 ood (in rounde iva ent wood vo e equivalent and volume), e onstr tion and (b) Reconstruction of the total annual production and consumption of roundwood in Bhutan of t e tota ann a rod tion and ons tion of ro nd ood in tan Source: adin et al, 2015. Given the large increasing demand for wood charcoal for its emerging chemical industries, it would be useful for Bhutan to predict what this demand will be in the ivenfuture. the large increasing demand for wood charcoal for its emerging chemical industries, it would be useful for Bhutan to predict what this demand will be in the future.
92 Drivers of deforestation and forest degradation in Bhutan 100 6. Future deforestation and forest degradation
6.1. Methodology
The largest concern is the increased degradation of Bhutan’s forests, which is increasing at a rate faster than earlier patterns. The conversion of arable land and forests into other land uses is also increasing at a rate faster than it historically did. This section assessed future projections based on spatial analyses and quantifed estimations, linear projections based on currently observed patterns, and a degradation risk map, to provide a basis for estimating future impacts. Most projections in this section assume business as usual (historical patterns) projections into the future, except for those where there is specifc information to guide future projections, such as hydropower development plans. Projections into the future, based on BAU, inherently does not bring in the range of nuances which will impact future drivers, such as population growth, policy change, changes in consumption patterns changes in trade patterns, and other factors which could be modelled. An option is use of a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to better project how changes in policy, technology or other external factors would impact forests, and this driver assessment has not relied on such detailed macro-economic modelling, but rather relies on linear modelling. This means that projections in this section may underestimate some future drivers, and yet for others where future assessments are based on known variables such as development plans, projections are indicative of current commitments and intentions.
Projecting underlying drivers into the future, and their infuence on direct drivers, is noted where possible below. However, projections on future connections between underlying and direct drivers contain a high level of uncertainly, given changes that can occur in government decisions, commodity and regional economic demand factors, social aspects, etc.
6.2 Projecting the impact of deforestation drivers
6.2.1 Allotment of SRFL for various purposes
Bhutan predominantly practices planned deforestation programs. Under various planned programs, the Government allots SRFL for various purposes, and clearing of SRFL for agriculture, hydropower, roads, mining, and transmission lines. These purposes are the major factors as drivers to deforestation.
Annex 5 shows historic trends of SRFL allotment for various uses. Agriculture, hydropower, roads, mining and transmission lines are the top uses affecting the forest cover. However, in the absence of comprehensive statistics, trend analysis has not been ascertained. Assuming the historical (2008-2014 period) average of forest area lost (1,923 ha) due to all allotments (excluding allotments for roads and transmission lines), the average deforestation predicted to occur between now and 2030 due to RGoB allotments of SRFL for various purposes is 28,845 ha.
6.2.2 Hydropower
Hydropower is estimated to remain a dominant driver of deforestation, given development plans underway. Among the deforestation drivers, hydropower has
Drivers of deforestation and forest degradation in Bhutan 93
dro o er is esti ated to re ain a do inant driver of deforestation iven deve o ent historically ans nder a had. Among the highest the deforestation average SRFL drivers, allotment. hydropower Based has historically on reviews had of the proposed highest hydropoweraverage SRFL projectsallotment. which Based on are reviews listed of in proposed Annex 1hydropower and on the projects assumption which are made listed in in SectionAnnex 1 3.2.4 and on that the future assumption hydropower made in development Section 3.2.4 thatwould future follow hydropower the same development pattern as previouswould follow hydro the impacts same pattern on forests as previous in Bhutan, hydro impactswe spatially on forests estimated in Bhutan, the per we spatiallyhectare impactsestimated of the previous per hectare hydropower impacts ofdevelopment, previous hydropower which resultsdevelopment, in an whichaverage results of 1 in to an 4 hectares of forest being lost for every megawatt (MW) generation capacity developed. average of 1 to 4 hectares of forest being lost for every megawatt (M ) generation capacity Thus, if we extrapolate into the future assuming an average of 2 ha of deforestation for developed. Thus, if we extrapolate into the future assuming an average of 2 ha of deforestation every MW generation capacity developed, we predict that the development of 18,380 MWfor everymay generallyM generation impact capacity about developed, 39,760 hectares we predict of forestthat the (refer development to table ofbelow). 18,380 M may generally impact about 39,760 hectares of forest (refer to table below). Table 20: Simple extrapolation projection of hydropower development impacts on forests a e i e e tra o ation ro e tion of dro o er deve o ent i a ts on forests dro o er ro e t otentia e tare i a t natsan 1,200 2,400 natsan 1,020 2,040 an de 720 1,440 o on 600 1,200 an 570 1,140 i a 210 420 na a 180 360 o 540 1,080 a ar 770 1890 5,320 an os 2,560 5,120 ri on ri dro o er ro e ts 2,600 (and 3,000 hectares of land 8,200 planned to be submerged) ri ot as on 1125 2,250 era ari dro o er 442 884 ro e ts a ri dro o er ro e t 140 280 Dan dro o er ro e t 135 150 78 726 o a dro o er ro e t 336 672 a ri dro o er ro e t 64 79 80 91 628 a dro o er ro e t 0 anas 1800 3,600 anas 1000 2,000 ota e tares
Note ote that that these these rough rough projections projections do not do notinclude include spatial spatial assessment assessment of the actual of the proposed actual proposeddevelopment development sites. Bunakha, sites. Sunkosh, Bunakha, and Amochhu Sunkosh, are and all expected Amochhu to arehave all significant expected land to haveclearing signifcant impacts as land they clearingare mega reservoir-basedimpacts as they hydropower are mega projects. reservoir-based The estimation hydropower that uri projects. ongri would The re uireestimation an additional that Kuri 3,000 Gongri ha forwould a reservoir require hasan beenadditional included 3,000 in the ha rough for a reservoirestimate. has hether been allincluded planned in hydropower the rough projects estimate. will Whether be successfully all planned implemented hydropower is not projects will be successfully implemented is not possible to predict as they are highly dependent with funding and political circumstances. Nonetheless, hydropower projects will arguably remain among the top drivers of deforestation in Bhutan, as they have 102 been historically.
94 Drivers of deforestation and forest degradation in Bhutan 6.2.3 Roads
Given the priorities in Bhutan’s 11th Five-Year Plan (to 2018) on road improvements, in order to provide road access to rural areas for market and development access, road development will continue (RGoB, 2013). The emphasis on road infrastructure is also linked to other development priorities such as hydropower projects. There are plans to upgrade and build national highways, and roads connecting to hydropower projects, districts (Dzongkhag), etc. The Department of Roads is interested to improve construction standards of roads to make them more climate proof and to ensure the long-term value of investments in roads, and this is an area for greater collaboration and capacity development. Road access is also intended to improve social services and economic prospects by practically linking almost every village in the country (RGoB, 2013). The dzongkhags with the highest network of roads are Trashigang, Mongar and Chukha with sizeable connectivity of national highways, dzongkhag roads and farm roads. The least connected dzongkhags are Yangtse, Tsirang, Haa and Gasa (RGoB, 2016), indicating these would be the areas with greater emphasis on road construction in the future. Assuming the average forest area lost due to road construction in the period 2008-2014, the average deforestation attributable to roads would be predicted at about 4,100 ha between now and 2020, and up to 12,300 ha by 2030. It is important to note that increased road development in remote and forested areas often results in easier access to illegally extract resources (Tenzin & Hasenauer 2016). This was visible in a FMU reviewed for this study (Paro-Zonglela FMU, visited 24.06.2016) where trees were illegally cut at the roadside, and interviewees noted this also happens in other regions.
6.2.4 Agriculture
Despite rural abandonment of farms which helps offset the amount of forest being converted to agriculture, indications are that agriculture as a driver of deforestation will have increasing prominence in the future. Agriculture is the most important sector in the economy, contributing 16.8% of GDP, employs 59.4% of the population, and accounts for 4.3% of exports. The government places agriculture at the centre of the development agenda, in part due to the rising trade defcit and the need to substitute imports. The sector’s growth is insuffcient to address poverty issues, food security and lead to sustained GDP growth (RGoB, 2013).
The need to address food security and increased self-suffciency in agricultural production is identifed in the 11th Five Year Plan. Domestic production of cereals meets only 66% of the total requirement. The country is only 47% self-suffcient in rice, 47% in wheat, 40% is pulses and less than 10% in oils. However, the country has the potential to increase both production and productivity. Further, about 80% of national domestic beef consumption requirements are still imported. Similarly, about 97% of total fsh consumption and 83% of total pork consumption are all met from imports. Thus, the 11th FYP prioritizes investments in boosting the enabling environment for increased livestock production (RGoB, 2013). It is unclear what guidance exists on appropriate land use to reach these goals, though the 11th FYP does indicate various methods of increasing yields on the existing agricultural lands, such as through improved genetics for livestock and irrigation for agriculture.
However, the available options for improved agriculture production are challenged
Drivers of deforestation and forest degradation in Bhutan 95 by Bhutan’s geography. In a discussion with the Department of Agriculture, the following mismatch was identifed: Less than 8% of the total area is cultivatable, and based on 2010 land cover mapping, it was found that more than 65% of the population is cultivating on 2.93% of the land. Farmers cultivate on up to 38% slopes, and their landholdings are limited, as most farmers have less than one acre. Land degradation and surface erosion was identifed by a range of interviewees as a ‘silent disaster’ that affects livelihoods, and is also a diffcult to change (National Statistics Bureau, 2014). The National Action Programme to Combat Land Degradation helps provide solutions, and the National Rehabilitation Project seeks to take sharecroppers with no landholding in their name and identify areas where they can settle and steward land (will occur in SRFL).
Indications are that as urban development places pressures to expand on fat paddy areas, it will displace agricultural production to other areas (such as forests and steep slopes) or alternatively cause an increase in food imports (which may spare forest but increase food prices). Increasing pressure for commercial cultivation is also a noted trend, as evidenced in the large number of land leases applied for in order to cultivate cardamom, and increased commercial production could impact forests, if land is not available elsewhere.
Assuming the average forest area lost due to conversion to agriculture assessed with the spatial analysis 2000-2015 (as well as taking into account the area converted back to forests), the average deforestation would be predicted at about 3,890ha between now and 2020, and up to 11,670 ha by 2030.
6.2.5 Mining
Mining has historically been among the top four SRFL allotments. Mining is one of the fastest growing industries in the country, with a growth rate of about 17% in 2014 (Anti-Corruption Commission, 2016). Hence, it can be reasonably expected that mining will continue to exert an increasing pressure on forests resources. Dolomite and gypsum mining in particular are increasing – with production more than doubling between 2002-2012 (Anti-Corruption Commission, 2016). Hence, in the short- to medium term, deforestation pressure due to mining is expected to increase. National Land Commission data for land leased on long term shows that highest demand for leased land was for mining at 1550.18 Ha (RGoB, 2016a), and interviews suggest this interest will grow. Mining is one of the fastest growing industries of the country, with revenue generated from the mining and quarrying sector increasing 20.86% in 2014 compared to 2013, to Nu. 3376.43 million. The growth rate recorded for the sector was 17.01% in 2014. The share of mining and quarrying to GDP is about 3%.
On the policy side, government is working on a Mineral Development Policy, but the process has identifed many differences among stakeholders. The policy may be approved by the end of 2016. There is also a call for review of the Mines and Minerals Act. One clear recommendation to DoFPS is to provide guidance and direction to the review of this Act.
Development and enforcement of proper environmental regulatory frameworks would be required in order to balance revenue generation from mining and environmental conservation. Assuming the average forest area lost due to mines and quarries in the
96 Drivers of deforestation and forest degradation in Bhutan period 2008-2014, the average deforestation would be predicted at about 3,165 ha between now and 2020, and up to 9,495 ha by 2030.
6.2.6 Power lines
As for power transmission lines, historical statistics indicate that SRFL allotted to this driver has declined in the 2008-2014 period, though this does not correspond to the impact expected to result from increasing number of hydropower projects being developed in the country. Assuming the average forest area lost due to construction of transmission lines in the period 2008-2014, the average deforestation would be predicted at about 2,710 ha between now and 2020, and up to 8,130 ha by 2030.
Though there is dampened interest in the “10,000 MW by 2020” hydropower target that Bhutan signed in a hydropower development and trade cooperative agreement with India, development continues. Considering that the country plans to undertake some 15 hydropower projects in the country by 2020, and another 58 by 2030, it is reasonable to predict that more forests will continue to be lost due to Power lines. Linear assumptions of future forest loss based on the average forest area lost over the 2008-2014 period is not logical, given the development plans for hydropower. Rather it would be more suitable to refer to Annex 2 on the prospective power grid by 2030, and to estimate clearance based on line capacity planned in various regions and the access routes.
6.3 Projecting the impact of degradation drivers
Except livestock, the future impact of all other forest degradation drivers are predicted to exert constant or even increasing pressure on forests.
6.3.1 Timber harvesting
For timber, the historic statistcs indicate a fairly stable extraction and supply from Bhutan’s forests, with the exception of a signifcant leap in 2015. However, considering future demand by a growing population and urbanisation, timber extraction from Bhutan’s forests can be expected to increase or at most remain stable.
Drivers of deforestation and forest degradation in Bhutan 97 Source: From Forests Facts and Figures publications by Ministry of Agriculture and Forests (see section 4.). Note that timber includes all wood products reported in the stats, e.g., cham, dangchung, drashing, posts, frewood, poles, hakaries, logs, shinglep, tsim, wood chips, etc; but excludes frewood.
400,000
350,000 340,254 ) 3 300,000
250,000
200,000 172,279 150,000 132,535 126,465 134,277 126,637 100,000 108,615 Timber extracted supplied (m
50,000
0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Figure 31: Timber extracted from forests and supplied in Bhutan in 2008 to 2014 i re i er e tra ted fro forests and s ied in tan in to
Source: From Forests Facts and Figures publications by Ministry of Agriculture and Forests (see section 4.). ote that timber includes all wood products reported in the stats, e.g., cham, dangchung, drashing, posts, firewood, poles, Therehakaries, is furtherlogs, shinglep, evidence tsim, wood indicating chips, etc but that excludes timber firewood. trading is lucrative, with illegal sale of subsidized rural timber having been detected (Anti-Corruption Commission, 2016), andThere FNCRR is further (2017) evidence changes indicating seek that to timber address trading this. is lucrative, Also timber with illegal offences sale of aresubsidized on the rise.rural Hence, timber the having pressure been detectedto extract (Anti- orruption more timber ommission,from Bhutan’s 2016), forest and is F RR evident, (2017) and predictablychanges seek increasing to address – this. and Also so timberwill be offences the future are on impact the rise. on Hence, forest the degradation. pressure to extract more timber from Bhutan s forest is evident, and predictably increasing and so will be the future 6.3.2 Firewood impact on forest degradation.
Presently, and in the short- and medium term, frewood is and will be the main source of energy in the country. It is cheap and readily available in most parts of the country. Based on the latest data, the per capita consumption of fuel wood has decreased in the past resently, years (MoEA, and in the 2016), short- however,and medium it isterm, still firewood one of theis and highest will be thein themain world, source andof energy this is duein tothe its country. value Itboth is cheap as a and source readily of available fuel and in alsomost theparts key of thesource country. of household Based on the heating. latest Ruraldata, households the per capita consume consumption more of fuelfuel woodwood has than decreased their urban in the counterparts.past years (MoEA, With 2016), only abouthowever, 38.6% it isof still the one country’s of the highest population in the world, being and urban, this is adue large to its quantities value both of as frewood a source of are consumedfuel and also annually the key by source the remainingof household large heating. rural Rural population. households Bhutan’s consume Secondmore fuel National wood 14 Communicationthan their urban counterparts. to the UNFCCC ith only noted about that 38.6% the of residential the country s sector population mainly being consumes urban , frewood,a large uantities kerosene, of liquefedfirewood arepetroleum consumed gas annually (LPG), by and the electricity.remaining large rural population. Bhutan s Second ational ommunication to the F noted that the residential sector Themainly rate consumesof urbanisation firewood, in kerosene, Bhutan li uefied is estimated petroleum at about gas (L ), 3.69% and electricity.(CIA World Factbook 2013-14); while population growth rate is estimated at 1.3%, and is declining since 2002 (World Bank, 2016). Hence, it can be reasonably predicted that the impact of population14 The orld growth Bank orld rate Development on frewood Indicators consumption database. Accessed will here reduce. and will also be muted by
106 98 Drivers of deforestation and forest degradation in Bhutan
The rate of urbanisation in Bhutan is estimated at about 3.69% ( IA orld Factbook 2013-14) while population growth rate is estimated at 1.3%, and is declining since 2002 ( orld Bank, urbanisation2016). Hence, growth it can berate. reasonably Some evidence predicted already that the show impact a declining of population trend growth in the rateamount on offirewood frewood consumption extracted fromwill reduce forests and and will supplied also be mutedin Bhutan by urbanisation in 2008 to growth 2014 (Figurerate. Some 30). However,evidence alreadythis statistics show a declining would betrend treated in the withamount caution of firewood and itextracted excludes from consumption forests and thatsupplied is not in documented Bhutan in 2008 in tothis 2014 offcial (Figure supply 30). However, channel. this As notedstatistics in wouldsection be 3.3.1, treated the with per capitacaution consumption and it excludes (which consumption includes that all is frewoodnot documented users suchin this asofficial residential, supply channel. industrial As andnoted transportation) in section 3.3.1, appears the per capita to be consumption 3.5 times higher(which includes than the all estimatesfirewood users of frewoodsuch as extractedresidential, and industrial supplied and astransportation) reported in appearsthe national to be 3.5statistics, times higher and thanis equal the estimatesto about of35 %firewood of the estimated extracted and sustainable supplied as annual reported yield in the in national the country. statistics, and is e ual to about 35 % of the estimated sustainable annual yield in the country. Source: From Forests Facts and Figures publications by Ministry of Agriculture and Forests (see section 4.) 120,000 )
3 109,390 100,000 97,257 86,068 82,171 80,000 77,875 77,817
63,973 60,000
40,000
20,000 Firewood Firewood extracted/supplied (m 0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Figure 32: Firewood extracted from forests and supplied in Bhutan in 2008 to 2014 i re ire ood e tra ted fro forests and s ied in tan in to In addition, there are efforts to increase the use of energy-effcient cook stoves in many partsSource: of From the Forests country. Facts andHence, Figures frewood publications extraction by Ministry of can Agriculture be predicted and Forests to (see continue section 4.) to exert a marginally reduced but still signifcant degradation pressure on the forests. This is coupledIn addition, with there the are fact efforts that tofrewood increase isthe also use suppliedof energy-efficient by the governmentcook stoves in freemany of parts charge of tothe people country. living Hence, in rural firewood areas. extraction can be predicted to continue to exert a marginally reduced but still significant degradation pressure on the forests. This is coupled with the fact that firewood is also supplied by the government free of charge to people living in rural areas. 6.3.3 Fires
Historically, fre occurrences have been declining in Bhutan while the area burned has been increasing (see section 3.3.4). Nevertheless, there are a number of reasons toHistorically, predict an fire increasing occurrences trend have of been forest declining fres in in Bhutan the future. while the Bhutan’s area burned future has climate been outlookincreasing indicates (see section a warmer 3.3.4). evertheless, climate. There there is are a consistent a number of fnding reasons across to predict climate an projectionincreasing trendmodels of forestof a warmingfires in the pattern, future. Bhutan s with greater future climatetemperature outlook changesindicates apredicted warmer during the winter months (Asian Development Bank, 2016). As noted by Westerling et climate. There is a consistent finding across climate projection models of a warming pattern, with al. 2006, increase in number of wild fres in many of the world’s fre prone ecosystems greater temperature changes predicted during the winter months (Asian Development Bank, in the last two decades can be partly attributed to a changing climate – with warmer temperatures and reduced precipitation being key factors. Hence, a future warmer climate for Bhutan will most likely translate into increased forest fres. This is coupled 107 with the country’s rugged terrain – making fre control very diffcult. In addition, the capacity to manage fres is currently weak, and not expected to drastically improve soon. Assuming a continuation of the annual average area of forest areas burned, one could predict that between now and 2030, about 93,800 ha of forest would be subject
Drivers of deforestation and forest degradation in Bhutan 99
2016). As noted by esterling et al. 2006, increase in number of wild fires in many of the world s fire prone ecosystems in the last two decades can be partly attributed to a changing climate with warmer temperatures and reduced precipitation being key factors. Hence, a future warmer climate for Bhutan will most likely translate into increased forest fires. This is coupled with the country s rugged terrain making fire control very difficult. In addition, the capacity to manage fires is currently weak, and not expected to drastically improve soon. Assuming a continuation of tothe fre annual across average the country. area of forest areas burned, one could predict that between now and 2030, about 93,800 ha of forest would be subject to fire across the country. 6.3.4 Livestock The NEC’s State of the Environmental Report identifes over-grazing as a key driver/ pressure on land resources (RGoB, 2016a). Thus, the government is undertaking efforts The E s State of the Environmental Report identifies over-grazing as a key driver/pressure on to improve livestock management, e.g., cross-breeding, enhancing pasture, and feed land resources (R oB, 2016a). Thus, the government is undertaking efforts to improve livestock and fodder development programmes. Available statistics already indicate a decline management, e.g., cross-breeding, enhancing pasture, and feed and fodder development in cattle population. Coupled with predicted increase in the use of improved breeds, whichprogrammes. have been Available reported statistics to graze already less indicate in the a forests,decline inthe cattle overall population. impact oupled of livestock with grazingpredicted on increaseforest degradation in the use of improvedis predicted breeds, to decrease. which have been reported to graze less in the forests, the overall impact of livestock grazing on forest degradation is predicted to be decrease. Source: RGoB, 2016a.
i reFigure rends 33: Trendsin o ation in population of att e of and cattle a inand tan yak in in Bhutan to in 2009 to 2014
TheSource: population R oB, 2016a. of free grazing cattle and yaks are seen to be diminishing gradually over the past decade. This trend suggests a decline in the pressure on land from grazing. TheThe recent population changes of free in grazing tsamdro cattle and and grazing yaks are are seen positive to be diminishingfor REDD+ gradually and provide over the a basis past fordecade. improving This trend the linkages suggests betweena decline inlivestock the pressure and onforest land management. from grazing. The The recent Department changes of inLivestock tsamdro andis focusedgrazing are on positivecarrying for capacity REDD and assessments, provide a basis rangeland for improving improvements, the linkages improvingbetween livestockspecies and forestimproved management. pasture. The Of concernDepartment to the of Livestock Livestock is Departmentfocused on carrying is the warmingcapacity of assessments, the higher rangelandelevation improvements,areas, resulting improving in cattle species grazing and moving improved up pasture.into these Of higherconcern areas to the due Livestock to climate Department change is impacts. the warming The of centralization the higher elevation and redistributionareas, resulting inof tsamdrocattle grazing leasing moving should up help into improve these higher rangelands areas dueby allowing to climate greater change ownership impacts. and The stewardship, and this is occurring both in the highlands and lowlands. As livestock leasing falls under agriculture leasing, it cannot switch to other uses. 108 6.4 Future forest degradation risk analysis
Since forest degradation being the main forest change affecting the quality of forests in Bhutan (the forest area has increased), a spatial assessment of future risk of degradation has been done in this study.
100 Drivers of deforestation and forest degradation in Bhutan Methodology
There are statistical models/tools available to project the future land use land cover change such as Terrset Land change modeller, Random forest in R. These models can predict the land cover change based on the historic trend and rate of deforestation/ degradation taking bio physical parameters such as distance to infrastructure (road, settlement, markets), elevation and slope, pattern/trend in land change into account. However, such models have a major limitation that it can’t take policies or other non-spatial variables into account which directly affect the rate of the deforestation/ degradation. Considering above limitations in statistical model we decided to use the multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) to prepare the future forest degradation risk map. In the process of MCDA basic analysis is similar to statistical models i.e. looking for correlation in physical parameters and the degradation. The advantage of MCDA over static statistical models is that certain infuences of different variables for the future will be ranked and assigned weights which can be done in various ways including through expert opinion, participatory processes and surveys.
Methodological approach • First step is to identify weightings of risks of different parameters to prepare a realistic model of areas under risk of degradation • In this process we are not using only binary input data such as ‘under risk’ or ‘no risk’ as proposed in the Boolean overlay, but ratio data: • Elevation: “high/ medium / low” • Slope: “steep / moderately steep/ not steep” • Distance to road and settlement: “ 0-1 km / 1-2 km / >2 km” • Fragmentation of forests: “patch; edge, perforated, core < 250 ac, core 250 – 500 ac, core > 500 ac • Selection of these ratios were based on the analysis of all physical variables overlaid with degradation maps. A correlation analysis was done with all of these parameters against forest degradation showing Distribution either positive of or weights: negative correlation. each physical parameter layer receives a weight. The weight • Standardization: the different measurementreflects the scales relative of the ratios importance of parameters of the were each layer respective to the other. The largest standardized with numerical index scales i.e. 1-3 are assigned to the input data. Consequently, the values of the resultingweight is physical assigned features to the (factor) most layers important will no layer. The correct choice of weights is based on longer have units but a risk index.the statistical analysis of all physical variables together with degradation maps • Distribution of weights: each physical(correlation parameter analysis). layer receives To a assign weight. weights The weight we have used weighing by ranking method refects the relative importance of the each layer respective to the other. The largest weight is assigned to the most Table 21: weighing by ranking of important layer. The correct a eparameters ei in to assess forest ran in degradation of ara eters to assess forest de radation choice of weights is based on the statistical analysis of all physical variables together with nor a i ed degradation maps (correlation a er ran ei t ei t analysis). To assign weights we Elevation 1 4 0.40 have used weighing by ranking method Road 2 3 0.30 • Application of the algorithm: Settlement 3 2 0.20 the algorithm of the weighted linear summation multiplies Slope 4 1 0.10
ApplicationDrivers of deforestation of the and algorithm: forest degradation the in Bhutan algorithm101 of the weighted linear summation multiplies all grid cells of a layer by their weight. Then, the layers are added together. In the resulting risk map layer the risk cells have high values while the no risk cells have low values.
Limitations of this approach: The selection of weights certainly considerably influence the results of risk analyses. sually, experts facilitate the weighting process and thereby rely on various sources of information. In the case of this study we used statistical analysis of all available physical features. However, different experts implement the weightings according to their own interpretation. Therefore, interpretation should be considered with caution and more seen as a starting point for further national as well as regional consultations. evertheless, this method represents a transparent method which provides a good basis for further discussion and investigation. For instance, the weighting and ranking method could be repeated in an open stakeholder process at regional (district) level.
The maps below display the different risk maps for each of the factors before weighted linear summation of all variables used in the process.
110 all grid cells of a layer by their weight. Then, the layers are added together. In the resulting risk map layer the risk cells have high values while the no risk cells have low values.
Limitations of this approach: The selection of weights certainly considerably infuence the results of risk analysis. Usually, experts facilitate the weighting process and thereby rely on various sources of information. In the case of this study we used statistical analysis of all available physical features. However, different experts implement the weightings according to their own interpretation. Therefore, interpretation should be considered with caution and more seen as a starting point for further national as well as regional consultations. Nevertheless, this method represents a transparent method which provides a good basis for further discussion and investigation. For instance, the weighting and ranking method could be repeated in an open stakeholder process at regional (district) level.
The maps below display the different risk maps for each of the factors before weighted linear summation of all variables used in the process.
i re a tor a sFigure assified 34: Factor ased Mapson ris s classifed based on risks
Finally,Finally, aa risk risk map map is presentedis presented below below showing showing the risk the of risk future of forestfuture degradation forest degradation as a result as of athe result ranking of the based ranking on historic based degradation on historic analysis degradation of physical analysis parameters. of physical The risk parameters.map does not Theshow risk any map new doesrisks or not projected show any changes new of risks policies, or projected etc. it is a changesstatus assessment of policies, of existing etc. it isforest a status areas assessmentmore likely to of be existing affected inforest terms areas of degradation. more likely to be affected in terms of degradation.
102 Drivers of deforestation and forest degradation in Bhutan
111
Figure 35: Bhutan overall forest degradation risk map i re tan overa forest de radation ris a
TheThe main main hot spotsspots of of high high risk risk degradation degradation are along are thealong southern the southern border including border the including valley thebottoms. valley Morebottoms. distinctively, More distinctively, the zones in the the higher zones altitudes in the aroundhigher aro,altitudes Thimphu, around Trongsa, Paro, Thimphu,Bumthang Trongsa,and Trashigang Bumthang are characterized and Trashigang with forest are areas characterized of higher risk of with future forest degradation. areas of higherAbove riskrisk mapof future is based degradation. on only four Abovevariables risk with map categorised is based in on 3 riskonly ranks four therefore variables looks with categorisedmore broad. in Re-ranking 3 risk ranks and introducing therefore the looks other more variables broad. with Re-ranking this methodological and introducing approach thewill other improve variables the accuracy with of this the map methodological and highlight specific approach areas will under improve high risk. the Also accuracy the above of therisk map map and doesn t highlight show the specifc degradation areas in under different high forest risk. canopy Also covers.the above In the risk centre map zoomed doesn’t showbox inthe map degradation shows isolated in patches different of forest forest which canopy are under covers. more In risk the of centreeither deforestation zoomed box or in mapdegradation shows isolated due to manmade patches or of natural forest causes.which are under more risk of either deforestation or degradation due to manmade or natural causes. ertainly, to understand patterns and risks of future degradation especially on a regional level, Certainly, to understand patterns and risks of future degradation especially on a more factors need to be taken into account. The method presented here would easily allow to regional level, more factors need to be taken into account. The method presented here be adapted to more degradation and/or deforestation factors once discovered through local field would easily allow to be adapted to more degradation and/or deforestation factors assessment and surveys. once discovered through local feld assessment and surveys.
The three maps below further define the risk of forest degradation for the different forest crown The three maps below further defne the risk of forest degradation for the different forestcover crown types - coverdense forests,types - medium dense forests,dense forest medium and open dense forests. forest and open forests.
Risk maps for different forest canopy covers:
112
Drivers of deforestation and forest degradation in Bhutan 103
Risk maps for different forest canopy covers:
i re tan forest de radation ris a for ano over i reFigure tan 36: Bhutan forest forest de radation degradation ris risk a map for for ano canopy over cover > 50 %
i re tan forest de radation ris a for ano over i reFigure 37: tan Bhutan forest forest de radation degradation ris risk a map for for ano canopy over cover 30 - 50 %
i reFigure 38: tan Bhutan forest forest de radation degradation ris risk a map for for ano canopy over cover 10 – 30 % i re tan forest de radation ris a for ano over
104 Drivers of deforestation and forest degradation in Bhutan 113 7. Regulatory and policy framework
7.1 Overarching policy and legislation
The basis for Bhutan’s strong commitment to its forests stems from the Constitution of the Kingdom of Bhutan, which directs every Bhutanese person, as a trustee of the Kingdom’s natural resources, to contribute to the protection of the natural environment, conservation of the rich biodiversity of Bhutan. Government is directed to protect, conserve and improve the pristine environment and safeguard the biodiversity of the country; prevent pollution and ecological degradation; secure ecologically balanced sustainable development while promoting justifable economic and social development; and ensure a safe and healthy environment. The Government is further directed to ensure that, in order to conserve the country’s natural resources and to prevent degradation of the ecosystem, a minimum of sixty percent of Bhutan’s total land shall be maintained under forest cover for all time (RGoB, 2008a).
Gross National Happiness – Bhutan’s unique development philosophy aims to measure the aspects of life beyond material well-being. GNH is therefore regarded as a richer objective than GDP or economic growth. In GNH, material well-being is recognized as important but it is also important to enjoy suffcient well-being in terms of community, culture, governance, knowledge and wisdom, health, spirituality and psychological wellbeing, a balanced use of time, and harmony with the environment. The 2015 GNH Index, which is estimated based on a national survey found that there were favourable increases in suffciency levels in two indicators: environmental issues and avoiding harm from wildlife, and a decrease in the suffciency level of one indicator: responsibility to the environment, with no changes in urbanization (Centre for Bhutan Studies and GNH Research, 2015). A discussion with government offcials indicated a need for a better set of indicators to measure the health of the ecosystem, including a robust information management system.
The National Environmental Strategy, “the Middle Path,” recognised the need to develop the economy while still maintaining the country’s rich cultural heritage, traditional values, and natural resource base. The NECS outlined three main avenues of sustainable economic development: expanding hydropower, increasing agricultural self-suffciency and expanding the industrial base. The NES noted that expanding the hydropower sector depends on maintaining the integrity of the country’s watersheds, and thus threats to the country’s forests - illegal cutting, unsustainable rangeland practices, agricultural expansion and road development - would have to be minimised (RGoB, 1998).
Bhutan 2020: The Vision 2020 document contains the National aspirations and vision for a 20-year time frame. It re-affrms the notion of GNH as the central development concept for the country. The Vision predicts increasing threats to biodiversity and has placed environmental conservation at the core of the developmental strategy. Thus, the vision states that the environment is, “…not treated as a ‘sector’ but rather as a set of concerns that must be mainstreamed in our overall approach to development planning and which must be buttressed by the force of law (RGoB, 1999).”
National Environmental Protection Act of Bhutan 2007, is the umbrella legislation that defnes the roles and responsibilities of key agencies in environmental management
Drivers of deforestation and forest degradation in Bhutan 105 and sets out requirements for the protection of the physical and ecological environment. It also promotes the use of clean energy and alternative technologies to reduce use of fuel wood/timber from primary forests and calls for conservation and protection of wetlands, alpine regions, watersheds, and other vulnerable ecosystems in addition to the existing protected areas. The Act is based on a range of principles including inter- generational equity, the Middle path strategy, precautionary principle, the principles of 3Rs (reduce, reuse, recycle), polluter pays principle, rights to information and justice, and payments for environmental services. Chapter 5 does identify the importance of ecosystem integrity, and also reinforces the Constitutional commitment to maintain a minimum of 60% of Bhutan’s total land under forest cover for all time, and that any changes in the present national forest cover and protected areas shall be made only by the Parliament (RGoB, 2007b). The Act does not mention climate change explicitly, but the overarching framework implicitly encompasses considerations for addressing forest degradation.
The Environmental Assessment Act of Bhutan 2000 stipulates that an environmental clearance is a prerequisite for development consent, and shall set out the environmental terms for project requirements. Information shall be made available to the public as per Chapter 4. (RGoB 2000). The Act is supported by ‘Regulations for the environmental clearance of projects,’ developed by NEC and enacted in 2001. The Act and Regulations focus on project-level proposals, and do not provide guidance on how to address multiple projects proposed in water catchments, for example.
7.2. Land
The preeminent law guiding land use is the Land Act of 2007. It allows for both leasing and allotment of GRF (now SRFL), and states the procedural steps to process such flings for changes and how to record the changes, but does not provide criteria for evaluating the proposals. • The Act created the National Land Commission, and directs the Commission to, among other activities, certify land categories, approve cash compensation for land acquired, allot SRFL to Government institutions and Gerab Dratshang, recommend appropriate tax measures, approve exchange of rural registered land with SRFL. The Act empowers the Commission Secretariat to work with local (Gewog, Dzongkhag and Thromde levels) government to carry out provisions of the Act. Though the Act empowers the Commission to carry out cadastral activities (to be documented in the Thram), provides guidance on who can own land, rights and obligations on land owners, procedural aspects related to land, it does not provide zoning or policy guidance on land use. • For leases of SRFL, the Ministry of Agriculture is to prescribe the rules of the leasing arrangement. The Act also states that trees, either grown naturally or planted, in registered land shall belong to the landowner, which was a change from previous legislation. • Land rules and regulations which came into effect in 2009 further defned procedures for land exchanges and leasing in SRFL. The leasing allowances in SRFL include land for tsamdro/pasture development, sokshing and commercial agriculture farms and any economic activity such as mining, industrial activity and development activity. Leases are not to exceed 30 years, except for Highlanders practicing tsamdro/pasture development, in which case the lease period is a
106 Drivers of deforestation and forest degradation in Bhutan minimum of 30 years. If minerals of strategic value are identifed on lease land, the lease could be terminated with compensation. Approval by the relevant ministry is required, and a management plan to guide use of the land is mandated in regard to the leasing of SRFL (RGoB, 2009b; RGoB, 2007a).
With the objective of deepening the decentralization process, The Local Government Act of 2007 was reviewed and amended in 2009. The key provisions related to land and forest management include the following: • The act empowers the Dzongkhag Tshogdu to provide regulatory oversight on functions relating to water, air and noise pollution and other environmental degradation. • The Act stipulates that the Gewog Tshogde is to monitor establishment and operation of mines and quarries in consultation with the concerned community, regulate the protection and harvesting of edible forest products in the community forest, prevent illegal construction and all other types of encroachment in community land as well as on government land and government reserved forest land. The Gewog Tshogde is to be the custodian of community land, community forests, including sokshing, nyekhor tsamdro, and medicinal herbs and prevent illegal house construction and all other types of encroachments in community land as well as on government land and forests; conserve and protect water sources, lakes, springs, streams, and rivers (RGoB, 2009a).
The revised Economic Development Policy (dated June 2016) provides the basis for promoting “Brand Bhutan” based on its rich natural resources and culture, along with strategies for promotion of the Five Jewels, which are the sectors constituting the core growth areas. These sectors include hydropower, cottage and small industries, mining, tourism, and agriculture. It provides guidance for the general policy reforms sought to promote the right enabling environment for business. The policy also outlines the importance of land use through proper land use planning as highlighted below: • The relevant Government agencies responsible for promoting respective sectors of the economy shall proactively identify land in collaboration with the NLCS and develop/facilitate development of infrastructure for growth of businesses. • Local Governments in collaboration with the NLCS shall identify industrial areas within their respective jurisdictions by 2016 to facilitate establishment of industrial land service activities. • The allotment of SRFL shall be prioritised on strategic business activities such as large stand alone projects with cluster effects and public utility services. • The NLCS shall prepare a national land use plan (Zoning) which will outline use of land for optimal use by 2017. For this purpose, all relevant sectors shall provide sectoral parameters to NLCS by 2016 (RGoB, 2016b).
The above sections are discussed in more detail in the policy and measures section at the end of this report, as it provides an important and timely foothold to address sustainable land use issues, REDD+ goals included. The Economic Development Policy of 2016 indicates that a range of Acts should be reviewed and revised, including the Land Act, 2007; the National Environment Protection Act, 2007; and the Local Government Act, 2009 (RGoB, 2016b).
Drivers of deforestation and forest degradation in Bhutan 107 7.3 Forests
Beyond the Constitutional commitment and others as mentioned above, the following are specifc policies and regulations regarding forest management:
The 2011 National Forest Policy defnes the overarching goal of sustainable management of forest resources and biodiversity to produce a wide range of social, economic and environmental goods and services for the equitable beneft of all citizens and the natural environment while still maintaining a minimum of 60% forest cover thereby contributing to GNH. The Policy references the previous 2009 version seeking an integrated landscape level approach to sustainable forest management; that all SRFL must be brought under management schemes for forest products or ecosystem services; there must be emphasis on poverty reduction, promotion of forest-based industries (value addition and waste minimization) through sound resource assessment; conserving the representation of the country’s biodiversity; promote science based and participatory approaches to forest governance and management that respects the cultural values of the forests; integrates climate change, disaster management and new challenges and opportunities in forest governance and management; and enables payment of environment services (RGoB, 2010).
The Policy states that about 14% of percent of the forest area is economically accessible and available for commercial timber production, and of that, about 5.8% is under current FMU management plans, with another 8.2% planned for in the future. The remaining area is considered not suitable for harvesting timber using current technology and under the prevailing economic circumstances, and most of this area is used on an ad hoc basis for rural timber supplies. This category also includes the area above 4,000 metres. It was estimated in the Policy that about 4% of the forest land will be designated as Community Forests by the end of 2013 (RGoB, 2011d).
The Policy mentions Bhutan’s international commitments, such as the UNFCCC, but does not provide coherent guidance to decision-makers and managers on how to bring climate change considerations into forest management. However, there is brief mention in Section 2.5 subsection 2.5.1 on ‘production forests,’ to ‘minimize or reduce impact of climate change on sustainable forest management and development through appropriate adaptation and mitigation measures; and contribute to and avail benefts from carbon sequestration through measures such as afforestation, reforestation, reduced deforestation and forest degradation.’
Forest and Nature Conservation Act 1995 – provides the primary authority for forestry activities in the country. It lays out a framework for the conservation and sustainable management of forest resources and has separate chapters on soil conservation, community forestry, protected areas and protection of wildlife. The Act is a major vehicle to achieve the Constitutional requirement of maintaining 60% forest cover. The Act also recognises the traditional and cultural rights of local people to access and use forest resources. The Act is operationalised through instruments such as the Forest and Nature Conservation Rules and Regulations and various technical guidelines and manuals.
The Act allows the use of forest resources through permits and licenses. The issuance of permits or licenses is subject to the development of a management plan. The Act
108 Drivers of deforestation and forest degradation in Bhutan defnes jurisdiction for the use of what is allowed in Government Reserve Forests (now SRFL) including domestic use of forest produce (e.g. fodder, etc.), and also provides the Ministry with the ability to defne rules regarding transport, import and export of forest products. The Act allows for private forestry in privately registered lands.
Forest and Nature Conservation Rules and Regulations of 2017 are a revision of the 2006 version and are designed to operationalise the Forest and Nature Conservation Act. They cover general aspects of managing State Reserved Forest Land (SRFL) as well as detailed management prescriptions for different categories of SRFL including FMUs, CFs, PAs and watersheds. They also include procedures for allocation and utilisation of forest resources, research and forest based industries.
The Rules and Regulations address issues of specifc relevance to deforestation and forest degradation. These include: • Criteria for forest clearances as allotments or leases are identifed, as well as procedures. They defne procedures for SRFL management planning and implementation. While the rules do not provide guidance as to what values, formats and minimum reporting requirements must be in management plans, it does state that takings of forest produce shall be planned on a sustained yield basis as prescribed in the code. The rules contain changes to the Rural Subsidized Timber Allocation entitlements and procedures. • Approaches to assess watersheds across the country, to identify those that are degraded or critical, and to develop management plans to mitigate or remove the degrading infuences. • A plough-back mechanism of 1% of royalties from hydropower development, to be paid to MoAF on an annual basis for sustainable management of watersheds. The Rules also mandate the provision of funds for compensatory plantations, to offset the impacts of mega-projects and development projects. The requirement is to provide funding for double the area taken up by the project, and the funds must be made available prior to project commissioning.
7.4 Community and Social forestry provisions
The Forest and Nature Conservation Act 1995 provided the legal basis for community forests, and the Forest and Nature Conservation Rules and Regulations 2017 defne the roles and responsibilities for Community Forest Management Groups (CFMG) and the role of the DoFPS to help prepare management plans and carry out monitoring and evaluation. The National Community Forestry Strategy provides strategic guidance for future implementation.
The Land Act of Bhutan 2007 also affects community forestry. The Local Government Act 2009 appoints the Gewog Tshogde as custodian of community land and forests. This act and the Local Government Rules and Regulations 2012 clarify the roles and responsibilities of local governments for local development and the interface with community forests (Dorji and Schmidt, 2014).
7.5 Climate Change
Bhutan submitted its Intended Nationally Determined Contribution to the UNFCCC
Drivers of deforestation and forest degradation in Bhutan 109 in September 2015. The INDC identifes that highest GHG emissions come from the agriculture sector, however they have remained relatively constant. Emissions from sectors such as industrial processes and transport are showing a rapidly increasing trend, with 191.6% and 154.3% respective increases between 2000 – 2013. The INDC notes forests currently cover 70.46% of the land area of Bhutan and sequestration by forests is estimated at 6.3 million tons of CO2 and emissions in 2013 are estimated at 2.2 million tons of CO2 equivalent. • The INDC identifes mitigation plans and priority actions, based on a range of pre-existing policies and commitments, for sustainable forest management and conservation of biodiversity to ensure sustained environmental services through: • Sustainable management of forest management units (FMUs), protected areas, community forests, forest areas outside FMUs, and private forests • Enhancing forest information and monitoring infrastructure through national forest inventories and carbon stock assessments • Forest fre management and rehabilitation of degraded and barren forest lands • The INDC also focuses activities around renewable energy generation and climate smart agriculture, which can have compatibility with the sustainable forest management component, if designed to do so. • Adaptation plans and priority actions also include sustainable forestry components. Bhutan’s INDC reinforces the Second National Communication to the UNFCCC, which defned the high vulnerability of Bhutan to the adverse impacts of climate change due to the fragile mountainous ecosystem and the country’s economy. The most vulnerable sectors are water resources, agriculture, forests & biodiversity and hydropower sectors.
While climate change is referenced in Section 2.5.1 of the National Forest Policy, both mitigation and adaptation priorities do not seem to feature in any other policy or legislation. Bhutan is creating a National Adaptation Plan and seeks to integrate priorities in the INDC in the preparation of the 12th Five Year Development Plan (2018- 2023) and also subsequent fve-year plan periods (RGoB, 2015c).
7.6 Biodiversity
The Biodiversity Act of Bhutan, 2003 provides for conservation and sustainable use of biochemical and genetic resources, equitable sharing of benefts from the use of genetic resources as well as transfer of technology and capacity building at national and local levels for conservation and use of biological diversity. More than half of Bhutan is under protected area management, and Bhutan is internationally recognized for its protected area management and biodiversity conservation (RGoB, 2003).
The National Biodiversity Strategies and Action Plan of Bhutan 2014 is a comprehensive document to guide decisions related to biodiversity protection. A signifcant portion of the priorities within the Plan are related to increasing awareness of biodiversity and developing the knowledge, capacity and monitoring systems to effectively manage for maintenance of biodiversity values. Two national targets are of most relevance for REDD: a) National Target 5: By 2018, high-biodiversity value habitats are mapped, the rate of loss is accounted, trends monitored and overall
110 Drivers of deforestation and forest degradation in Bhutan loss and fragmentation reduced, and b) National Target 7: Areas under agriculture and forestry, including rangeland are managed through the adoption of sustainable management practices, ensuring conservation of biological diversity (RGoB, 2014b).
7.7 Water
The Water Act of Bhutan, 2011 mentions the threat of climate change impacts on water resources in the preamble, that minimum fows in rivers should be considered, and includes the polluter pays principle. It identifes the National Environment Commission as a lead agency to coordinate national integrated water resources management. A range of competent authorities are identifed as responsible for implementation (and reporting back to NEC), including the Ministry of Agriculture and Forests—for land-use, irrigation, watershed management, water resources in forests, wetlands and protection of catchment areas; and the Ministry of Economic Affairs—for water resources data relevant for the National Integrated Water Resources Management Plan, and planning and designing of water resource infrastructure including dams and GLOF issues. The Act directs NEC Secretariat to complete a National Integrated Water Resources Management Plan and River Basin Management Plans (RGoB, 2011b).
The Bhutan Water Policy of 2007 seeks an integrated approach for effective management of water resources, references climate change, and the need to fnd an equitable balance between the needs of water management and the demands of water users. In the case of hydropower development and transmission of energy, the policy notes the linkages with upstream, downstream and en-route water and land-users and therefore identifes a need for cooperation and coordination in working out trade-offs (RGoB, 2007c).
Watershed Management: T h e Wa t e r s h e d M a n a g e m e n t D i v i s i o n ( W M D ) i n t h e D e p a r t m e n t of Forests and Park Services, is the designated national focal agency for operationalizing a watershed management program as part of a larger initiative to develop integrated frameworks for major river basins in the country. The enabling legislation for watershed management includes Article 5 of the Constitution, Bhutan 2020, the National Forest Policy, Forest and Nature Conservation Act of 1995, the Land Act of 2007, Bhutan Water Vision 2025, Bhutan’s Water Policy of 2008 and Bhutan’s Water Act of 2010. However, this legislative framework suffers from overlapping responsibilities, unclear jurisdiction for implementation, lack clear-cut resource allocation for watershed management and lack of emphasis on ground-level coordination.
A “Roadmap” for Watershed Management to guide the implementation of strategies aimed at improving the management of the country’s watersheds, was developed in 2009 and adopted in 2011. It included a strategy to focus watershed management planning initially on degraded and critical watersheds requiring urgent management interventions. This approach is codifed in the FNCRR of 2017. A novel aspect of watershed management planning in Bhutan is that activities proposed to mitigate or remove degrading infuences are integrated into existing area-based management plans such as Geog and Dzongkhag annual and fve year plans, FMU annual and fve year plans, Conservation Area Management plans, etc. In addition, planning is carried out “in the context of climate change.” The challenge for the future is to facilitate the implementation of “climate smart” watershed management plans in degraded watersheds.
Drivers of deforestation and forest degradation in Bhutan 111 The Waste Prevention and Management Act of 2009 covers waste management and applies the precautionary principle and polluter pays approach to addressing individual responsibility for pollution. However, it does not include carbon dioxide or reference to climate change. The Waste Prevention and Management Regulations 2012 identify roles and areas of implementation related to waste management. They include a section regarding management of waste in SRFL, but do not include any climate change components.
7.8 Other concepts of note
Payments for Ecosystem Services (PES) is enabled by the National Forest Policy. Bhutan also has some experience with beneft sharing under PES schemes. A PES Feasibility Study was undertaken by FAO in 2009 and identifed certain positive conditions for PES implementation. As per the recommendations of the feasibility study, PES was piloted for three environmental services in three locations in the country. A National Framework for PES and Field Guides have been developed, and Bhutan is looking to refne an assessment of ecosystem service valuation.
A number of other activities are underway, which are already building the enabling environment for REDD+, as per Bhutan’s R-PP: • National Forest Inventory (NFI) completed and data analysis is on-going • National Forest Monitoring System (NFMS) – land use and land cover map 2015, a participatory monitoring framework for CFs being developed • Valuation of ecosystem services starting soon • Potential REDD+ pilot actions in 5 CFs • Forest Reference Emission Levels (FREL) – contract awarded • REDD+ PES pilot site selected • Piloting Heritage Forests in 20 sites, one each of the 20 districts under implementation
8. Recommendations for criteria to prioritize strategic options and pathways to address direct and underlying drivers
This section provides an initial basis for considering policy and measure (PAM) measures in the REDD+ context. It should be deliberated on and revised by stakeholders and technical working groups as part of refning the REDD+ National Strategy.
The Cancún Agreement (COP 16) on REDD+, “Decides that the (REDD+ activities) undertaken by Parties should be implemented in phases beginning with the development of national strategies or action plans, policies and measures, and capacity-building, followed by the implementation of national policies and measures and national strategies or action plans that could involve further capacity-building, technology development and transfer and results-based demonstration activities, and evolving into results- based actions that should be fully measured, reported and verifed (Decision 1/CP.16, paragraph 73).”
The intent of the Cancún Agreement, and the Warsaw framework, is for national policies
112 Drivers of deforestation and forest degradation in Bhutan and measures to respond to the pressures on forests as a means of achieving REDD+ objectives. This driver assessment takes note of the historical and future drivers of deforestation and forest degradation in Bhutan, in order to provide a stronger sense of what policies and measures could be put in place today to anticipate pressures on the forest into the future. PAMs are a key part of a National REDD+ Strategy, and are the means by which countries address driver pressures from within and beyond forestry sector.
In general, the prioritizing PAMs should consider a range of general factors, including: • Signifcance of each driver (impacts on forests, level of emissions or potential for removals) • Relation of each driver with the various REDD+ activities • Development priorities or political feasibility • Capacity to tackle the driver activity • Implementation costs • Potential REDD+ safeguards triggered
Bhutan is developing, becoming more urban, may graduate into middle-income economic status soon, and the country’s relationship to its forests is dynamic. This report identifes that forest cover as a measure of forest health is perhaps not the only measure for forest health. Degradation may have larger impacts on the forest, its functions, and its biodiversity than forest cover. Refreshing Bhutan’s vision and commitment to its forests inherently entails a contemporary view of forests and projections into the future, to defne interventions and actions that maintain the integrity of the forest, while allowing for future development that is compatible.
A national strategy for REDD+ can refresh Bhutan’s commitment to sustainable forest management, positioning forests in relation to the sectors that exert pressure on forests, supporting the balance that GNH strives for, and fulflling Bhutan’s INDC commitment. Bhutan already has a long-standing commitment to steward its forests, and this is enshrined in the Constitution. Further, Bhutan aspires for progress to be holistic, inclusive, equitable and sustainable, where political and spiritual matters are in balance. Bhutan’s positive state of the natural environment has directed Bhutan to pursue a green economy. A key aspect of realizing this goal while developing the economy is stronger planning at the Gewog level, in order to feed into developing the 12th Five-Year Plan, and also promote small business development (Tobgay, 2015). These are aspirations that are strongly connected to land (particularly business development related to agriculture, mining, or other activities), and therefore it will be useful to consider how the pillars and domains of GNH can help guide the direction for REDD+ to underpin and implement these values and goals. The GNH Index can provide a useful means to evaluate the non-carbon benefts of PAM options. The GNH pillars and domains provide a nationally-defned set of non-carbon beneft goals and measures, which are captured in the GNH Index, and could be further refned and adapted to REDD+ in Bhutan.
Bhutan should likely also flter PAM options against the objectives being developed for the 12th Five-Year Plan. The 12th Five-Year Plan may be a very suitable vehicle in
Drivers of deforestation and forest degradation in Bhutan 113 which to position cross-sectoral strategies.
A key methodological step in evaluating PAM options is to consider what counter- measures to address drivers are already in place, those that are in place but could be improved, and those that might have been identifed already but not yet implemented.
Based on the direct and underlying drivers identifed in this report, key observation to guide assessment of PAM selection criteria include: 1. Degradation should be prioritized over deforestation, as forest cover is increasing, slightly while the forest as a whole is degrading. Carbon stock assessment of the forest can be a proxy measurement of forest health, but clearly there are other values to be accounted for, including the rich species distribution of forest types, biodiversity values, watershed values, climate adaptation functions, cultural values and others. 2. The relative impact of the Subsidized Rural Timber Allotment Policy on the amount of timber harvested each year, and the inconsistency with principles of sustainable forest management, deserves a re-think that goes beyond amending the Forest and Nature Conservation Rules. 3. It is appropriate to acknowledge that future deforestation will happen, so it is advisable to prioritize the suitability of the loss of some forest areas under different scenarios which safeguard high conservation value and high carbon stock forests 4. Eco-regional distribution of forests is important, so evaluation of intervention options should make sure not to weigh interventions for one forest-type at the expense of others. 5. Hydropower development and associate infrastructure development will have a large impact on the forest. 6. Interventions that address the trade-offs between sectors are important, and would address a current weakness in governance – National Land Use Policy and spatial land use planning/zoning as an option. Simply addressing needs from the forest sector perspective will not reconcile the conficting priorities between sectors. 7. The cultural signifcance of forests in Bhutan must not be overlooked, and the NWFPs and traditional uses of the forest are an important part of culture and livelihoods. 8. The adaptation benefts and values of forests are crucial, and yet integration of climate considerations into current forest management and planning is not clear. This presents a large opportunity.
Sectors need to prepare strategies to mainstream climate into their plans and to guide activities, as per the SAPA (RGoB, 2016d). While climate adaptation and mitigation are clearly defned in Bhutan’s INDC, the existing sectoral and development policies have not yet been amended to refect this priority. The Forest and Nature Conservation Act, 1995, and associated Forest and Nature Conservation Rules and Regulations of 2017 omit climate change priorities. While the National Forest Policy of 2011 includes mention of climate mitigation and adaptation, it does not provide guidance on how to pursue this in relation to other priorities, such as ‘maximise production of forest resources per unit area.’
114 Drivers of deforestation and forest degradation in Bhutan Prioritizing which legislative vehicle is suitable to promote REDD+ objectives is important, and deserves further scoping in the National REDD+ Strategy development phase. While the Forest and Nature Conservation Rules of Bhutan of 2006 were amended in 2017 and clearly new changes have been made to address earlier short-comings and conficts, Rules by their nature cannot carry the policy direction that is contained in the Forest and Nature Conservation Act of 1995 (which the rules implement). Therefore, defning PAM options must consider what policy direction is best placed in rulemaking, versus the Act.
A means to address the subsidized rural timber allotment could come through direction given to MoAF in the agriculture section of the new Economic Development Policy of 2016 states:
7.6.16 The MoAF shall review the current timber allocation policy with particular focus to rationalise timber subsidy to ensure optimal utilization of the timber resources.
7.6.17 The MoAF and MoEA shall adopt a strategic framework to add value and enhance the competitiveness of the wood based industry by 2018.
7.6.18 Integrated wood industry development will be accorded priority and outdated sawmilling operations phased out by 2018. Sale and trading of timber in processed form shall be promoted to ensure optimal utilization.
Addressing land use planning and inter-sectoral coordination on land use may be best addressed through the foothold provided by the new Economic Development Policy (EDP). The EDP provides the current basis for promoting “Brand Bhutan” based on its rich natural resources and culture, along with strategies for promotion of the Five Jewels, which are the sectors constituting the core growth areas. These sectors include hydropower, cottage and small industries, mining, tourism, and agriculture. Section 7 provides guidance for the general policy reforms sought to promote the right enabling environment for business. The frst one is with regards to the access to Land: • First, the EDP directs the relevant Government agencies responsible for promoting respective sectors of the economy to proactively identify land in collaboration with the NLC and develop/facilitate development of infrastructure for growth of businesses (RGoB, 2016b). However, NLC does not have land management policies and guidance, and nor is there a national land use plan, such as zoning or integrated spatial planning to guide such decision-making. Further, as outlined in the underlying driver sector, planning that looks at future pressures and needs (e.g. increasing urbanization, climate change impacts) as a basis for navigating sectoral-trade-offs has not yet been assessed. • Second, the EDP directs Local Governments in collaboration with the NLC to identify industrial areas within their respective jurisdictions by 2016 to facilitate establishment of industrial and service activities (RGoB, 2016b). While this is in keeping with the intentions for devolution of governance to local scales, it omits the broader planning capacity that line agencies should bring to this evaluation. This activity also assumes that cross-sectoral trade-offs would be addressed at the local scale, but the lack of capacity at local scales to serve this need are weaker than at the national level. Therefore, national-level guidance to help inform local decisions on siting would be necessary.
Drivers of deforestation and forest degradation in Bhutan 115 • Third, the EDP identifes that the allotment of SRFL shall be prioritised on strategic business activities such as large stand alone projects with cluster effects and public utility services (RGoB, 2016b). While such prioritization is logical, DoFPS does not yet have a master plan for appropriate siting of large-scale (or small-scale) development where it would be agreed that on a set of criteria, deforestation and/or forest degradation would be allowed. This report proposes that this exercise be completed to help guide ‘sanctioned deforestation,’ in order to minimize degradation of the forest, while recognizing that forest cover may decrease as future development occurs. • Lastly, the EDP directs NLC to prepare a national land use plan (Zoning) which will outline use of land for optimal use by 2017. For this purpose, all relevant sectors shall provide sectoral parameters to NLC by 2016 (RGoB, 2016b). NLC is already preparing to respond to this, though the process has not yet started. However, such a process will beneft from a higher-level policy and plan to guide zoning. Therefore, while NLC can continue collecting data from ministries on their proposed land uses and priorities, this proposal seeks development of a land use policy and plan to guide zoning decisions, particularly with a longer-term vision in mind.
While NLC recognizes the challenges on the land from increased lease applications, its mandate is for land administration, management, surveying and mapping, not policy direction. At the same time, the Gross National Happiness Commission (GNHC) recognizes its role in setting policy direction, and convening various ministries together to identify solutions. Thus, both agencies have recently identifed that GNHC could facilitate and convene at the inter-ministerial level, while NLC could fulfll the role of technical coordinator, in order to carry out a Land Use Policy, Plan and zoning. It is recommended that dialogue between these agencies continue, in order to carry this approach forward, as it will help achieve REDD+ goals. The Department of Urban Planning is already engaging some potentially compatible activities in the southern Broadleaf region, with support from JICA, and this could be integrated in a national- level planning process. There will also be a need to identify how a Land Use Plan can best enable compatible decisions at Dzongkhag and Geog scales (thus has a capacity- building component to support local governance).
Payments for ecosystem services could provide both domestic and international opportunities to compensate good stewards of forest resources. For instance, incentives paid for by users downstream to keep riparian buffers in critical watersheds well managed, as one of many options, can be explored. Bhutan’s temperate forests are its most valuable ecosystem service (Kubiszewski et al, 2013), though the challenge will be how to identify a willing buyer that directly benefts from the provision of these services (such as India). Identifying innovations in PES options and in subsidy and fscal policy in the PAM identifcation process can help focus in on how to adjust such schemes in order to shift behaviour, and should be explored further in the National REDD+ Strategy process.
9. Recommendations for policy and measure responses to address drivers
The following table summarizes each driver of deforestation and forest degradation, it’s current and future projected impacts, what underlying drivers were identifed that affect the direct drivers, and what recommended interventions could address the driver pressure. These recommendations would be further reviewed and considered in the National REDD+ Strategy development process.
116 Drivers of deforestation and forest degradation in Bhutan
o tions initia 1. F RR 2017 has revised provisions for rural timber allotment, so it is to given unlikely task operational ey near-term. therethe in changes will be substantial DoF S in the Economic Devo olicy of 2016 is section 7.6.16 which states the need to subsidy rationalize to timber ensure optimal utilization resources. of eed the to timber analyse the actual rural timber, what re uirement the forest can supply and the gaps, and develop necessary redesign. Identify how analytics to correct pricing to timber). and rural ( RD L distortions inform the 2. Related to illegal pressures, oversight of allotment, build to strengthen and need capacity offenses, transit the ability of field level forest department staff (staff, monitoring) knowledge, e uipment, 3. Develop an Indicator of Forest Health, for H . use by 4. ommunity F s Ensure potential. SME development and planning, forestry: apacity-building, are better not also sourcing timber needs from allotment (it rationalizes use and builds sustainability within their own systems, and makes it easier to monitor as wood can only come from one source). hen establishing Fs, ensure area and volume is appropriate to needs. their 5. Manage forests to maintain high-carbon stocks in prioritized FAOEMR, FM and F areas, while defining ossi e ossi e There has been no assessment of what what of assessment no been has There the viable side) (demand households needs are Entitlement for has not allowed rural for assessment an of re uirements, sustainable supply and entitlement may be outdated concept purpose intended the serve not does and of re-existing households as rural still areas suburban ualify now Allotment in policy skews pricingstructure the timber
Subsidized Subsidized rural sustainable: not be not may entitlement timber based on timbertrading Illegal based on subsidized timber has been lucrative. rural from timber surplus that states 2017 The F RR house constructions can rate, be R existing the of 25% of payment sold upon in order to legalise the usage of surplus market. deter black and to the timber ommunity forestry - judged by success s of Fs, largely not necessarily by management. improved the majority of wood products (excluding firewood) consumed in Bhutan was from India, the majority of which was charcoal. wood This suggests Bhutan should
nder in nder in drivers dire t driver t at affe t
3 harvested
3 by 2030. 3 between now and 2020, and up to m 2,415,125 drivers ran De radation arvestin i er About 161,008 m annually 72% of subsidized ruraltimberallotments timber harvest Future serves projection: historical Based trends, 805,042 on m
Drivers of deforestation and forest degradation in Bhutan 117
FAOEMR comprise the major source of timber supply, are not as objectives based management Stratification of well-managed as FM s. on goal of increasing carbon stocks and high- conservation-value forests (so that if area forest decreases, carbon stocks still increase). Assessment Resource Rapid the of Refinement to more management provide on granularity ualities forest different for objectives Manage based on forest carbon density and attributes other Afforestation and reforestation on barren and degraded areas can valuable species be (commercial and for export) or purposes other economically Enrichment planting within open forests, also enrichment planting as compensatory activity reforestation new complete than rather use multiple management Develop web-based information system supporting monitoring as well as planning and (open-source management of forest resources (possible for MIS) included). beto uses land other
6. apacity-building for DoF S to support F RR 2017 implementation, including at local levels, to calculate the 4000 cft limit allotment per household. onduct further research to or e uivalent for calculate rural how much timber cft is construction- really needed for one house necessary. also are components hardware and information, two storied. Monitoring, other forest types as production: suitable to more intensified
128 of of imports of wood
maintain maintain its level products from other countries to keep its natural forests ecological (which value), though are evaluation of impacts of sourcing wood of products from high is recommended. other countries FAOEMR are not as FM s well managed as is RD L the most important stakeholder in the forest sector, however operating they are under regulation, constraints pricing, (strong needs) capacity building plan by done always to management FM timber) pulls policy (subsidy There are underutilized species such as hardwoods, and efficiency utilization of and timber improved processing could be
118 Drivers of deforestation and forest degradation in Bhutan demand demand for lesser known
overnment already sees this as a risk factor, and a and factor, risk a as this sees already overnment forest fire strategy is capacity in to effectively carry this place, out (field division but inade uate raising. awareness and levels). Training level Dzongkhag at firefighting volunteer Increase lantations lantations for woodfuel on cleared or degraded areas How to increase efficiency household for in source alternative an supplying while woodfuel devices, heating Or focus stoves on pscaling fuel-switching of for cookstove project Min cook of Economic eed Affairs to address firewood demand for the institutional hanging and urban entitlement households don t depend on 2 trees, but use more system so timber scrap or salvage lops and or tops that rural pscalingof bri uette-making
7. Find ways to promote broadleaf timber species. Develop regional and timber supply forestry chain clusters with the full range of actors, from chain supply improved is goal The markets. marketing, planning, development production, for processing, of value-addition). (including promotion prioritized new 9. product To address lines illegal timber tracking trade, and chain stronger of timber custody verification. rules The on chainsaw new registration and licensing could be effective, but very hard to monitor. in place. put recently checks Increased road
129 ey ey for household cooking heating, not only energy the sector s Is90% residential of demand, yet isonly 10% 15%. devices burning efficiency of allotted and fuel of source cheapest the Is woodfuel areas in rural freeof royalty In future, as long increases as electricity access (and subsidized), electricity households will switch fuels prices wood away from are limate change impacts fires increase expected to Almost all fires are either human intentionally induced or and unintentionally, agriculture appears to be an
3
harvested by 2030.by 3 3 by 2030. 3 between now and 2020, 2020, and now between 3 between now and 2020, and up to m 1,274,041 ire ood About 84,936 m fires orest Annualaverage: ha 6,260 Future projection: between now 93,800 m 231,985 and ha 2030 or andto up 695,955 m annually (av. 2008-2014), e ual to about 35% of the timber amount(is additionalto) harvest Future projection: historical trends about 424,680 m based on
Drivers of deforestation and forest degradation in Bhutan 119 Awareness Awareness that free-ranging of cattle has greater capacity assessments), (carrying impactsforests on but interconnectedness grasslands/forests is strong. More research of and awareness is livestock needed browsing of regeneration after to grazing (social and understand and institutional aspects). livestock Encourage stall-feeding reduced grazing) (intensification and find olicy se ationalLand a of concept ursue where is best to house this. In order to increase or maintain land use stocks, carbon planning will help to identify land suitable for reducing development while deforestation/degradation Must have high-level political engagement, as well pressures. component as technical hased process, with policy and zoning developing in tandem, but both need to be reinforcing of the other. oning should include capacity considerations. suitability and compatible enable best can lan se carrying Land how Find ewog scales Dzongkhag and decisions at
tillation
130 rtant source (lemongrass dis 500,000 head nationally, though numbers numbers though nationally, head 500,000 declining are Redistribution of Tsamdo leasing so far having positive management impacts for benefits pasture and 5 every for 1 cow isabout density razing socio-economic forest. of ha ractice of nomadic herding is decline on the Decisions made without sufficient policy and spatially guidance, or locations, and use on decisions criteria plans long-term/master explicit to support Land Act and is the key policy guide, and F RR (2017), Interim Lease uidelines on of RF Agriculture of Land 2011, for apply. also 2009, Regulations L ommercial Rules exist does which guidance olicy/planning and does not include robust assessment future of challenges and change or climate needs, urbanization increased such as o clear mechanism yet to address impo in East) ine forests more susceptible between April and ovember trade-offs to devolving local sectoral (and
Decreasing
ran drivers Deforestation ivesto Average forest annually: area not nationallevelinsignificant affected available, on Future a trends. projection: for vario s of ot ent r oses Average forest annually: 1,923 ha area Total area estimated to be affected affected by2030: 28,845 ha
120 Drivers of deforestation and forest degradation in Bhutan Based on Land se olicy, lan and zoning, can have can zoning, and lan olicy, se Land on Based more detailed technical decisions. allotment guidelines to inform ointly review hydropower expansion plans from a watershed and forest management (basin-wide), capacity strengthen to carry suchout perspective reviews and share agencies. information with Explore trans-boundary ES relevant mechanisms aimed at compensating upstream land managers in Bhutan produce to landscape the managing sustainably for water high- uality reate a more refined assessment of (water/forests) valuation ecosystem Account for timber harvested from development infrastructure and hydropower roject proponent should report on the broader environmental development impacts as a piecemeal from holistic package linesroads). and transmission hydropower (basin-wide- and not including power onsider de-emphasizing for priority large a is build-out road as intervention, roads as rural access, and a much investment has AM already
131 offs offs may not be best - The The prioritization development as the primary source of foreign of hydropower development exchange is hydropower with associated commitment clear. and The expansion is economic financial a potent underlying driver that will put pressure on the forests. country s EIAs have occurred after the Agreement mbrella with India (not before) and cumulative impacts of multiple projects within large occurred systematically watersheds is given, clearance development the After has comes it when and approved, D R the and not to the operational level, then assessments detailed are done mitigating impact (so of aspect specific project). whole evaluating than rather activities, is DoF S needs to broader holisticly environmental assess the development impacts hydropower from Linked to government commitment reach to every village by road critical for levels levels to sort trade handle) to way Lack of zoning (DoF S is only agency to have done this, in regimes) within management forest areas falling ministries between info sharing Lack of
dro o er ro e ts dro o er Average forest annually: 1,880 ha area Total area estimated to be affected affected by2030: hydropowerdevelopmenton Based plansha39,760 onBased lineartrend: 28,200 ha oads
Drivers of deforestation and forest degradation in Bhutan 121 per ha per year. 2 Improved planning and decision-making on leases for commercial production via a Land Regional/geographic focus se is in lan. the southern sub- tropical regions Long-term planning to inform future agric trade-offs sectoral suitabilityand siting pscaling climate smart agriculture practices for Bhutan which contributes to less emissions more enhancement of carbon and stocks, in particular soil carbon. This will also increase the resilience of the agricultural changes. ractices production include agronomic precision against practices, fertilizer application, organic climatic fertilizers through composting, agroforestry systems mulching, with soil fertility cover enhancing trees crops, and long-term Studies shade from tree orth systems, agroforestry East etc. India concludes and management practices lead that to se uestration rates other ranging from 2.5 sustainable to 6 t O land hile DoF S already provides forest clearances to occurred. Emphasis should be on appropriate siting appropriate on be should Emphasis occurred. for roads not yet built, uality seeing of road construction, and how include climate- to increase proofing in road construction and investments so erosion. minimize will bedurable, they Account for construction timber harvested from road Mines and Minerals Act (Ministry of eology and O DE SE O DE SE
132 Five ear lan, rising rising lan, ear Five th hallenges hallenges with cultivating on 2.93% of the land, on to up 65% of 38% slopes, and limited landholding sizes population (less than one acre). occur. expansion could ot agriculture clear where 11 of focus major A Revenue increased 20.86% on 2014 and economic economic development access and market Road infrastructure also linked to hydro development line transmission and Road standards can be poor, and erosion procurement) cost high (low Road access in forested areas chainsaws of increases use (e.g. activity illicit of ease firewood) and timber uickly to clear in 2014 17.01% was rate growth sector trade trade deficit and the need to substitute imports. ommercial increasing products Increased pressure on (cardamom) paddy land from urban displacement development effects into wetlands could forests or Rural to urban have migration leads to abandonment farm
Average forest annually: 820 ha (does not include area farmroads) affected Total area estimated to be affected by12,3002030: ha ri t re Average forest annually:778 ha area Total area estimated to be affected affected by2030: 11,670ha and inin arries
122 Drivers of deforestation and forest degradation in Bhutan strengthen strengthen capacity to Assess Assess future losses forest minimize guidelines, build-out Include power transmission scenario, lines in hydropower project EIA develop processes, so that the whole package can be assessed (and calculate volume- should go into FIMs) Bring this into the needs sector different against weigh to process national land use Account planning for MISApp) ( FMS, line development transmission timber harvested from power Mines), there is a need to ensure DoF S staff convey the importance of high areas. value conservation Appropriate siting and zonation through land use plan/zoning is needed (now decisions are largely is found). adeposit whether based on State Mining orporation provides opportunity to improve standards Additionally, Dept of eology and Mines ensure should mining areas are rehabilitated (monitored by DoF S and E ). oordination between D M DoF S local and government sites mine from harvested timber for Account
133 Major Major new priority leasing of SRFL for this purpose expected for minerals low-value in is niche but government, grow, to and possibilities for value-addition low are Decisions on mining allowance are made not on a sustainable expansion basis, rather it s more opportunistic, based on found. deposits not are provisions Act Minerals and Mines closely followed for restoration) reclamation and sector replace to expected be cannot EIAs guidelines and plans policies, Linked to hydro development. They are inevitable, once the hydro development to. isplan agreed
Average forest annually:633 ha area Total area estimated to be affected affected by2030: 9,495 ha trans ission ines o er Average forest annually: 542 ha area Total area estimated to be affected affected by2030: 8,130 ha
Drivers of deforestation and forest degradation in Bhutan 123 10. References Anti-Corruption Commission, 2016. Improving Business Environment: The case of the mining industry in Bhutan. Thimphu, Bhutan Anti-Corruption Commission of Bhutan, 2009. Corruption Prevention Report on Rural Timber Allotment and Management System. BBS Radio, 2012. Amochhu Reservoir to displace oldest indigenous community. 5 December 2012. Available at: http://www.bbs.bt/news/?p=20340. Chettri, P.B. 2011. Analysis of structure, composition and single tree selection system in broad leaved forests of West Central Bhutan. Dissertation. University of natural Resources and life Sciences, Vienna Department of Forests and Soil Sciences, Institute of Silviculture Central Electricity Authority, 2012. National Transmission Grid Master Plan for Bhutan. Volume 1. New Delhi, India. Centre for Bhutan Studies and GNH Research, 2015. Bhutan’s 2015 Gross National Happiness Index. CIA The World Factbook 2013-14. Washington, DC: Central Intelligence Agency, 2013. Westerling, A. L., H. G. Hidalgo, D. R. Cayan, and T. W. Swetnam. 2006. Warming and earlier spring in-crease western U.S. wildfre activity. Department of Forests and Park Services/ Ministry of Agriculture and Forests, 2015. Forestry Facts & Figures. Department of Forests and Park Services/ Ministry of Agriculture and Forests, 2014. Forestry Facts & Figures. Department of Forests and Park Services/ Ministry of Agriculture and Forests, 2013. Forestry Facts & Figures. Department of Forests and Park Services, 2011. Forestry Development in Bhutan Policies, Programmes and Institutions. Dhital, D. B., 2009. Bhutan Forestry Outlook Study. FAO Asia-Pacifc Forestry Sector Outlook Study II Working Paper Series. Dorji, R., K. Schmidt, 2014. Review of Community Forestry and Analysis of its Strengths and Weaknesses for Future Directions. Participatory Forest Management Project, phase III (PFMP III). Department of Forests and Park Services. Druk Green, 2015. Environmental and Social Impact Assessment (ESIA) of Kuri-I Hydropower Project (1150 MW), Volume 1 of 2. 30 July 2015. Prepared by BHUCORE (Bhutan Consultants & Research). Druk Green, 2014. Annual Report 2014. Druk Green Power Corporation Limited. FAO 2015. Global Forest Resource Assessment 2015. Country Report. Bhutan. Accessed 12.10.2016 http://www.fao.org/3/a-az168e.pdf Gyeltshen, 2015. Over of Energy Sector in Bhutan &Sustainable Rural Biomass Energy Project. International Symposium on Renewable Energy and Energy Effciency Initiatives: Policies, Technologies, and Sustainability 3rd–5thJune 2015. Hotel
124 Drivers of deforestation and forest degradation in Bhutan LeMeridian, Thimphu. Hammad, G., H. Shrestha, M.S.R. Murthy, P. Phuntso, S. Pradhan, B. Bajracharya, B. Shrestha, 2015. Decadal land cover change dynamics in Bhutan. Journal of Environmental Management, Volume 148, 15 January 2015, Pages 91-100. Jadin, I., P. Meyfroidt, E. Lambin, 2015. Forest protection and economic development by offshoring wood extraction: Bhutan’s clean development path. Reg Environ Change: 16:401–415. Lean, H., R. Smyth, 2012. Electricity Consumption, Output, and Trade in Bhutan. Asian Development Bank. ADB South Asia Working Paper Series No. 34. Katwal, S., S. Dem, S. Pradhan, 2011. Forestry Facts, Figures &Trends. Ministry of Agriculture and Forests. Kubiszewski, I., R. Costanza, L. Dorji, P. Thoennes, K. Tshering, 2013. An initial estimate of the value of ecosystem services in Bhutan, Ecosystem Services, Volume 3, March 2013. Ministry of Agriculture and Forests, 2016. Forest and Nature Conservation Rules of Bhutan. Ministry of Agriculture and Forests, 2015a. 11 FYP Mid-Term Review directives and follow ups. Unpublished Word document. Ministry of Agriculture and Forests, 2015b. 11th FYP Mid-Term Review Presentation. Power-point presentation, unpublished. Ministry of Economic Affairs, 2016. Bhutan Energy Data Director 2015. Department of Renewable Energy. Ministry of Works and Human Settlement, 2009. Guidelines on Road Classifcation System and Delination of Contsruction and Maintenace Responsibilities. National Statistics Bureau, 2014. Bhutan Poverty Assessment 2014. Royal Government of Bhutan and World Bank. Natural Resources Development Corporation Limited, 2015. Annual Report 2014. NSSC, 2014. The National Action Program to Combat Land Degradation, National Soil Services Centre (NSSC). Ministry of Agriculture and Forests. Ogino, K., S. Hamanaka, 2011. Case Story on Cross-border Power Export from Dagachhu Hydropower Development. Asia Development Bank. Pariyar D. 1995. Forage Resources of Nepalese Hills and Strategies for Improvement. Country Paper: Nepal. Kathmandu, Nepal: Food and Agriculture Organization. Premkumar, L., 2016. A Study of the India-Bhutan Energy Cooperation Agreements and the Implementation of Hydropower Projects in Bhutan. Vasudha Foundation, New Delhi. Royal Government of Bhutan, 2017. Forest and Nature Conservation Rules and Regulations. Royal Government of Bhutan, 2016a. Bhutan State of the Environment Report 2016.
Drivers of deforestation and forest degradation in Bhutan 125 National Environment Commission. Royal Government of Bhutan, 2016b. Economic Development Policy. Royal Government of Bhutan, 2016d. The RNR Sector Adaptation Plan of Action 2016. Royal Government of Bhutan, 2015a. Statistical Yearbook of Bhutan 2015. National Statistics Bureau. Royal Government of Bhutan, 2015b. Corruption Risk Assessment for REDD+. Watershed Management Division, Ministry of Agriculture and Forests. Royal Government of Bhutan, 2015c. Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC) to the UNFCCC. Royal Government of Bhutan, 2014. REDD+ Readiness Proposal (R-PP). Submitted to World Bank Forest Carbon Partnership Facility. Version: January 12, 2014. Royal Government of Bhutan, 2014b. National Biodiversity Strategies and Action Plan of Bhutan, 2014. National Biodiversity Centre, Ministry of Agriculture and Forests. Royal Government of Bhutan, 2013. Eleventh Five Year Plan. Volume II: Programme Profle. Gross National Happiness Commission. Royal Government of Bhutan, 2011a. Second National Communication from Bhutan to the UNFCCC. National Environment Commission. Royal Government of Bhutan, 2011b. Water Act of Bhutan. Royal Government of Bhutan, 2011c. Subsidized timber and nonwood forest produce allotment policy, 2011. Ministry of Agriculture and Forests. Royal Government of Bhutan, 2011d. National Forest Policy. Ministry of Agriculture and Forests. Royal Government of Bhutan, 2009a. Local Government Act. Royal Government of Bhutan, 2009b. Rules and Regulations for Lease of Government Reserved Forest Land & Government Land. National Land Commission. Royal Government of Bhutan, 2008a. Constitution of the Kingdom of Bhutan. Royal Government of Bhutan, 2008b. Sustainable Hydropower Development Policy of 2008. Royal Government of Bhutan, 2007a. Land Act Royal Government of Bhutan, 2007b. National Environmental Protection Act of Bhutan Royal Government of Bhutan, 2007c. Bhutan Water Policy. National Environment Commission. Royal Government of Bhutan, 2003. Biodiversity Act of Bhutan. Royal Government of Bhutan, 2000. Environmental Assessment Act of Bhutan. Royal Government of Bhutan, 1999. Bhutan 2020: A vision for peace, prosperity and happiness. Planning Commission.
126 Drivers of deforestation and forest degradation in Bhutan Royal Government of Bhutan, 1998. The Middle Path: National Environment Strategy for Bhutan. National Environment Commission Royal Government of Bhutan, 1995. Forest and Nature Conservation Act of Bhutan. Royal Government of Bhutan and Government of the Republic of India, 2014. Inter- Governmental Agreement between Bhutan and India on development of Joint Venture Hydropower Projects. Sampdup, T., H. Udo, C. Eilers, M. Ibrahim, A.j. van der Zijpp, 2010. Cross-breeding and intensifcation of smallholder crop-cattle farming systems in Bhutan. Livestock Science 132. Tempa, K., 2011. Analysis of people’s participation in subsidized rural timber allotment policy towards sustainable forest management at Sarpang, Dzongkhag, Bhutan. Thesis; Kasetsart University. Tenzin, J., Hasenauer, H., 2016. Tree species composition and diversity in relation to anthropogenic disturbances in broad-leaved forests of Bhutan, International Journal of Biodiversity Science, Ecosystem Services & Management, http:// dx.doi.org/10.1080/21513732.2016.1206038 Togbay, T. 2015. Minutes of the 11th Five Year Plan Mid-Term Review for the Ministry of Agriculture & Forests. Dated 9th September, 2015, Thimphu. Wangdi, T., P. Lhendup and N. Wangdi 2013. An Analysis of Forestry Policy, Acts and Rules of Bhutan to Mainstream Climate Change Adaptation. Regional Climate Change Adaptation Knowledge Platform for Asia, Partner Report Series No. 13. Stockholm Environment Institute, Bangkok.
Drivers of deforestation and forest degradation in Bhutan 127
Royal overnment of Bhutan and overnment of the Republic of India, 2014. Inter- overnmental Agreement between Bhutan and India on development of oint enture Hydropower rojects.
Sampdup, T., H. do, . Eilers, M. Ibrahim, A.j. van der ijpp, 2010. ross-breeding and intensification of smallholder crop-cattle farming systems in Bhutan. Livestock Science 132.
Tempa, ., 2011. Analysis of people s participation in subsidized rural timber allotment policy towards sustainable forest management at Sarpang, Dzongkhag, Bhutan. Thesis asetsart niversity.
Tenzin, ., Hasenauer, H., 2016. Tree species composition and diversity in relation to anthropogenic disturbances in broad-leaved forests of Bhutan, International ournal of Biodiversity Science, Ecosystem Services Management, http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/21513732.2016.1206038
Togbay, T. 2015. Minutes of the 11th Five ear lan Mid-Term Review for the Ministry of Agriculture Forests. Dated 9th September, 2015, Thimphu.
angdi, T., . Lhendup and . angdi 2013. An Analysis of Forestry olicy, Acts and Rules of Bhutan to Mainstream limate hange Adaptation. Regional limate hange Adaptation Annexes nowledge latform for Asia, artner Report Series o. 13. Stockholm Environment Institute, Bangkok.
Annex 1: Hydropower projects in Bhutan
Sources: Druk Green website for completed projects, accessed 30 June 2016, International Rivers website, communication with Druk Green staff and consultants; Central Electricity Authority (2012).
e t e tat e t eta l
138
Drivers of deforestation and forest degradation in Bhutan 128
139
139
Drivers of deforestation and forest degradation in Bhutan 129
140
Sources: Druk reen website for completed projects, accessed 30 une 2016, International Rivers website, communication with Druk reen staff and consultants entral Electricity Authority (2012).
141
130 Drivers of deforestation and forest degradation in Bhutan Annex 2: Interviews and persons consulted
Structured interviews and informal information gathering interviews were carried out with experts, government staff and stakeholders, ranging from government ministries to sub-national government representatives, civil society organizations and community members. Below is a list of the various bi-lateral meetings, consultations, write-shops and regional workshops, that informed development of this report. Bilateral discussion with relevant stakeholders from June 21-30, 2016
i atera dis ssion it re evant sta e o ders fro ne
o a e Desi nation r ani ation Mr. hento Tshering Director Department of Forests and ark Services Mr. eshi Dorji hief Survey Engineer, officiating ational Land ommission director, Dept. of Survey and Mapping Mr. Tashi Sr. Survey Engineer/Head adestral Information Division, L Mr. eysar Sr. Survey Engineer/Head eoinformatics division, Map roduction, L Mr. igme Tenzin Sr. Survey Engineer, head Land Management Division, L (77115760) Mr. arma aley Director Department of Roads, ministry of orks and Human Settlement (Mo HS) Mr. Meghraj adhikari rban Specialist Department of Human Settlement, Mo HS Mr. amyang Specialist ational Soil Service entre ( SS ), Department of Agriculture, MoAF Mr. huntsho yeltshen Sr. Soil Survey and Land Soil Survey unit, SS , Department of Evaluation Officer Agriculture, MoAF Mr. Haka Dukpa Land management officer Land Management nit, SS , DoA, MoAF Dr. Tashi Samdrup Director eneral Department of Livestock, MoAF Mr. Tawchu Rabgay Livestock officer, Research and Department of Livestock, MoAF Extension Division Mr. hador Tenzin Head Druk reen onsultancy, rojects Department, Druk reen ower orporation Mr. Tandin Tshering Assistant Manager Environment DM nit, D , (17702320) rojects Department, D Mr. Tshering huntsho Assistant Manager Environment DM nit, D , rojects Department, D Mr. rishna Bdr. Rai Deputy Environment Officer Bhutan ower orporation (17277515) (krishnarai bpc.bt Ms. Sonam angchen Asst. Environment Officer Mr. Sonam Tashi hief lanning Officer olicy and lanning Division, Ministry of Economic Affairs Mr. amyang huntsho rogram Officer Tarayana Foundation Ms. Thinley Bidha Field Officer, Samtse Tarayana Foundation Mr. igme Field Officer, hemgang Tarayana Foundation Mr. Thinley amgyel hief Environment Officer ational Environment ommission
nd evie rite s o an ar
o a e Desi nation r ani ation Tashi alden Sr. Survey EngineerDrivers of deforestation L and forest degradation in Bhutan 131 .B Samal ational onsultant Matthias Seebauer onsultant/RS IS epxert I E rashant adgi IS/RS expert I E abrielle issinger onsultant Lexeme onsulting gyen Lhendup hief rogram Officer BTFE ema angda hief Forestry Officer MD Ashit hhetri Manager RD L Arun Rai Dy. hief Forest Officer FRMD igme Tenzin Sr. Forest Officer MD elly T. Dorji Tamang Sr. Forestry Officer Thimphu Division Sonam eljor Asst. lanning Officer D/MoAF Sonam eldon Dy hief Forestry Officer SFED Lobzang Dorji hief Forestry Officer FRMD Don ilmour A ID MD Samten angchuk Dy. hief Forestry Officer MD Rixzin angchuk Forestry Officer SFED ezang angden Dy hief Forestry Officer FRMD Sigyel Delma Dy hief Forestry MD Officer/ ational REDD oordinator idup Tshering Asst. Livestock Officer MD
evie rite s o fro De e er
o a e Desi nation r ani ation himi angden Asst. Environment Officer B ima yelpo Sr Survey Engineer L Rixin angchuk Forestry Officer SFED onten huntsho Sr. Forestry Officer FRMD LobzangDorji hief Forestry Officer FRMD yembo Tenzin Executive Engineer DoA gyen Lhendup hief rogram Officer BTF orbu angchuk hief rogram Officer H ima Dolma Tamang Asst. Environment Officer RD L Tashi Tobgyel hief Forestry Officer edu Division ezang angden Dy hief Forestry Officer FRMD elly T Dorji Forestry Officer T/phu Division huntsho Forestry Officer FRMD Lungten orbu Specialist MD Sonam uden Asst. Environment Officer B Sigyel Delma Dy hief Forestry Officer MD B Samal onsultant MD Samten angchuk Dy hief Forestry Officer MD
143
Mr. igme Field Officer, hemgang Tarayana Foundation Mr. igmeThinley amgyel hiefField Officer,Environment hemgang Officer ationalTarayana Environment Foundation ommission Mr. Thinley amgyel hief Environment Officer ational Environment ommission 2nd nd Review evie rite s o write-shop an ar - January 13 & 16, 2017 nd evie rite s o an ar o a e Desi nation r ani ation o Tashi a e alden Sr.Desi nation Survey Engineer L r ani ation .BTashi Samal alden ationalSr. Survey onsultant Engineer L Matthias .B Samal Seebau er onsultant/RS ational onsultant IS epxert I E rashantMatthias adgiSeebau er IS/RS onsultant/RS expert IS epxert I E abrielle rashant adgi issinger onsultant IS/RS expert Lexeme I E onsulting gyen abrielle Lhendup issinger hief onsultant rogram Officer BTFE Lexeme onsulting ema gyen angda Lhendup hief rogramForestry OfficerOfficer MDBTFE Ashit ema hhetri angda Manager hief Forestry Officer RD L MD ArunAshit Rai hhetri Dy.Manager hief Forest Officer FRMD RD L igmeArun Rai Tenzin Sr.Dy. Forest hief ForestOfficer Officer MDFRMD elly igme T. Tenzin Dorji Tamang Sr. ForestryForest Officer Officer Thimphu MD Division Sonam elly T. eljorDorji Tamang Asst.Sr. Forestry lanning Officer Officer D/MoAFThimphu Division Sonam eldon eljor DyAsst. hief lanning Forestry Officer Officer SFED D/MoAF LobzangSonam eldon Dorji hiefDy hief Forestry Forestry Officer Officer FRMDSFED DonLobzang ilmour Dorji A ID hief Forestry Officer MDFRMD SamtenDon ilmour angchuk Dy.A ID hief Forestry Officer MD RixzinSamten angchuk angchuk ForestryDy. hief Officer Forestry Officer SFED MD ezangRixzin angchuk angden DyForestry hief OfficerForestry Officer FRMDSFED Sigyel ezang Delma angden Dy hief Forestry hief Officer Forestry MDFRMD Sigyel Delma Officer/ ationalDy hief Forestry REDD MD oordinatorOfficer/ ational REDD idup Tshering Asst. oordinator Livestock Officer MD idup Tshering Asst. Livestock Officer MD
Review evie write-shop rite s o fro from De e er December 29-30, 2016 evie rite s o fro De e er o a e Desi nation r ani ation o himi a e angden Asst.Desi nation Environment Officer B r ani ation ima himi yelpo angden SrAsst. Survey Environment Engineer Officer L B Rixin ima angchuk yelpo ForestrySr Survey Officer Engineer SFED L onten huntshoRixin angchuk Sr.Forestry Forestry Officer Officer FRMDSFED LobzangDorji onten huntsho hiefSr. Forestry Forestry Officer Officer FRMD yemboLobzangDorji Tenzin Executive hief Forestry Engineer Officer DoAFRMD gyen yembo Lhendup Tenzin hiefExecutive rogram Engineer Officer BTFDoA orbu gyen angchukLhendup hief rogram Officer H BTF ima orbu Dolma angchuk Tamang Asst. hief Environment rogram Officer Officer RD L H Tashi ima TobgyelDolma Tamang hiefAsst. EnvironmentForestry Officer Officer edu RD L Division ezangTashi Tobgyel angden Dy hief hief Forestry Forestry Officer Officer FRMD edu Division elly ezang T Dorji angden ForestryDy hief OfficerForestry Officer T/phuFRMD Division huntsho elly T Dorji Forestry Officer FRMDT/phu Division Lungten huntsho orbu SpecialistForestry Officer MDFRMD SonamLungten uden orbu Asst.Specialist Environment Officer B MD SigyelSonam Delma uden DyAsst. hief Environment Forestry Officer Officer MDB Sigyel B Samal Delma onsultantDy hief Forestry Officer MD Samten B Samal angchuk Dy onsultant hief Forestry Officer MD Samten angchuk Dy hief Forestry Officer MD Lungten orbu Specialist MD idup Tshering Asst. Livestock Officer143 MD ema Dema Asst. Administration143 MD inley Dem Forest Ranger MD
ta e o der ons tation or s o e an on t ne
o a e Desi nation r ani ation Dorji angchuk up Trong Dorji angchuk up ankhor Drivers of deforestation and forest degradation in Bhutan 132 inzang yeltshen hief Forestry Officer Bumthang ankey Drukpa hief Forestry Officer S ezang Dorji Forest Ranger II FD Sonam huntsho Sr. Forest Ranger II FD hundu Dorji Forest Ranger II FM /Buli hencho angdi Forest Ranger II FM / hendebji Rela Bdr. Forest Ranger II FD Tshering angdi Asst. Forestry Officer anbang Sherab amtsho Sr. Forest Ranger homshar Tashi Dendup Research Officer Trongsa Tulsi hhetri nit incharge Tingtibi/ hemgang arma hewang Sr Dzongkhag Agriculture Officer Trongsa onten yelthen hief Environment Officer MH A Sigyel Delma Dy hief Forestry Officer MD inley akar Tshering Tobgay Dzongkhag Agriculture Officer hemgang Dhona hemgang Dorji Rinchen onsultant .B Samal onsultant ezang angmo Forestry Officer FD Tashi Dendup Environment Officer hemgang gyen Tenzin hief Forestry Officer hemgang embo Dorji FD ema yeltshen Asst. Administration FD abnelle issinger onsultant Lexeme onsulting Sherab orbu TFD/Bumthang arma RD L/Bumthang
eetin it Do staff on De e er
o a e Desi nation r ani ation Matthias Seebaur onsultant I E Sangay Specialist D ema angda hief Forestry Officer MD inley Tshering hief Forestry Officer F ED onten orbu Forestry Officer SFED angdi Dukpa Offtg. hief Forestry Officer RED Sonam hoden Sr. Forestry Officer MD amyang huntshok Dy hief Meteorology Officer MD uenzang OM Agriculture Officer MD Rxzin angchuk Forestry Officer SFED
144
Lungten orbu Specialist MD idup Tshering Asst. Livestock Officer MD Lungten orbu Specialist MD ema Dema Asst. Administration MD idup Tshering Asst. Livestock Officer MD inley Dem Forest Ranger MD ema Dema Asst. Administration MD
inley Dem Forest Ranger MD Stakeholder ta e o der ons tationConsultation or s o workshop e an on - Zhemgang t ne on 27th June, 2016
ta e o der ons tation or s o e an on t ne o a e Desi nation r ani ation
Dorji angchuk up Trong o a e Desi nation r ani ation Dorji angchuk up ankhor Dorji angchuk up Trong inzang yeltshen hief Forestry Officer Bumthang Dorji angchuk up ankhor ankey Drukpa hief Forestry Officer S inzang yeltshen hief Forestry Officer Bumthang ezang Dorji Forest Ranger II FD ankey Drukpa hief Forestry Officer S Sonam huntsho Sr. Forest Ranger II FD ezang Dorji Forest Ranger II FD hunduSonam huntsho Dorji ForestSr. Forest Ranger Ranger II II FDFM /Buli hencho hundu Dorji angdi Forest Ranger II FM /BuliFM / hendebji Rela hencho Bdr. angdi Forest Ranger II FM / hendebji FD TsheringRela Bdr. angdi Asst.Forest Forestry Ranger OfficerII FD anbang SherabTshering amtsho angdi Sr.Asst. Forest Forestry Ranger Officer anbang homshar TashiSherab Dendup amtsho ResearchSr. Forest OfficerRanger homsharTrongsa TulsiTashi hhetri Dendup nitResearch incharge Officer TrongsaTingtibi/ hemgang armaTulsi hhetri hewang Sr nit Dzongkhag incharge Agriculture Officer Tingtibi/ hemgangTrongsa onten arma hewang yelthen hiefSr Dzongkhag Environment Agriculture Officer Officer TrongsaMH A Sigyel onten Delma yelthen Dy hief hief Environment Forestry Officer Officer MH A MD inleySigyel Delma Dy hief Forestry Officer MD akar Tshering inley Tobgay Dzongkhag Agriculture Officer akar hemgang DhonaTshering Tobgay Dzongkhag Agriculture Officer hemgang DorjiDhona Rinchen onsultant hemgang .BDorji Samal Rinchen onsultant ezang .B Samal angmo Forestry onsultant Officer FD Tashi ezang Dendup angmo EnvironmentForestry Officer Officer FD hemgang gyenTashi Dendup Tenzin hiefEnvironment Forestry Officer Officer hemgang embo gyen Tenzin Dorji hief Forestry Officer hemgang FD ema embo yeltshen Dorji Asst. Administration FD abnelle ema yeltshen issinger onsultantAsst. Administration FDLexeme onsulting Sherab abnelle orbu issinger onsultant LexemeTFD/Bumthang onsulting armaSherab orbu TFD/Bumthang RD L/Bumthang arma RD L/Bumthang eetin it Do staff on De e er Meeting eetin with it Do DoFPS staff staffon De e er on December 6, 2016 o a e Desi nation r ani ation o Matthias a e Seebaur onsultantDesi nation r ani ation I E SangayMatthias Seebaur Specialist onsultant I E D emaSangay angda hiefSpecialist Forestry Officer D MD inley ema angdaTshering hief Forestry Officer MDF ED onten inley Tshering orbu Forestry hief Forestry Officer Officer F EDSFED angdi onten orbuDukpa Offtg.Forestry hief Officer Forestry Officer SFED RED Sonam angdi hoden Dukpa Sr.Offtg. Forestry hief OfficerForestry Officer RED MD amyangSonam hoden huntshok DySr. hiefForestry Meteorology Officer Officer MD uenzang amyang huntshok OM AgricultureDy hief Meteorology Officer Officer MD Rxzin uenzang angchuk OM ForestryAgriculture Officer Officer MDSFED Rxzin angchuk Forestry Officer SFED Lungten orbu Specialist MD Damber S. Rai hief Forestry Officer144 F ED elson arpare onsultant 144 onsultant on MTR Samten angchuk Dy hief Forestry Officer MD Sigyel Delma Dy hief Forestry Officer MD gyen enjor Forestry Officer FRMD Dorji angdi Sr Forestry Officer FRMD Tshewang Lhamo Forestry Officer RED Tshering em RED orbu angdi I ER .B Samal onsultant ational onsultant abnelle issinger onsultant Lexeme onsulting inley angchuk Driver MD inley Dem Forest RangerDrivers of deforestation MD and forest degradation in Bhutan 133 gyen Dema Agriculture Officer MD encho Lhendup Driver MD Shacha Lhamo Forest Ranger F ED ema angmo F ED elzang Eden DoF S Tshering Dorji DoF S amgay Tshering F ED onten huntsho Sr Forestry Officer FRMD
i atera dis ssion it re evant sta e o ders fro De e er
o a e Desi nation r ani ation Mr. Sonam angchuk Secretary ational Land ommission Mr. Tashi Sr. Survey Engineer/Head adestral Information Division, L Mr. igme Tenzin Sr. Survey Engineer, head Land Management Division, L (77115760) Mr. orbu angchuk hief lanning Officer ross ational Happiness ommission ( H ) Mr. Mewang yeltshen Director Dept. of Renewable Energy, Ministry of Economic Affairs Ms. Sonam Lhaden handu Dy. hief Environment Officer limate hange Division, ational Environment ommission Mr. arma Dukpa hief Executive Officer atural Resources Development orporation Ltd. ( RD L) Mr. Ashit hhetri rogram Officer roduction nit, RD L Mr. inley Tshering RD L Ms. Tamang RD L Mr. inley Tshering hief Forestry Officer Forest rotection and Enforcement Division., DoF S Mr. D.S Rai hief Executive Officer reen Bhutan orporation Mr. ounten orbu Dy. hief Forestry Officer Social Forestry and Extension Division, DoF S Ms. Sonam hoden Sr. Forestry Officer atershed Management Division, DoF S Ms. Sonam em Director Tarayana Foundation
145
Lungten orbu Specialist MD DamberLungten S. orbu Rai hiefSpecialist Forestry Officer F ED MD elsonDamber arpare S. Rai onsultant hief Forestry Officer onsultantF ED on MTR Samten elson arpare angchuk Dy onsultant hief Forestry Officer MD onsultant on MTR SigyelSamten Delma angchuk Dy hief Forestry Officer MD gyenSigyel Delma enjor ForestryDy hief OfficerForestry Officer FRMD MD Dorji gyen angdi enjor SrForestry Forestry Officer Officer FRMD TshewangDorji angdi Lhamo ForestrySr Forestry Officer Officer REDFRMD TsheringTshewang em Lhamo Forestry Officer RED orbuTshering angdi em I ER RED .B orbu Samal angdi onsultant ational I ER onsultant abnelle .B Samal issinger onsultant Lexeme ational onsulting onsultant inley abnelle angchuk issinger Driver onsultant MDLexeme onsulting inley Dem angchuk ForestDriver Ranger MD gyen inley DemDema AgricultureForest Ranger Officer MD encho gyen Dema Lhendup DriverAgriculture Officer MD Shacha encho LhamoLhendup ForestDriver Ranger F ED MD emaShacha angmo Lhamo Forest Ranger F ED elzang ema angmo Eden DoF SF ED Tshering elzang Eden Dorji DoF S amgayTshering TsheringDorji F EDDoF S onten amgay huntsho Tshering Sr Forestry Officer FRMDF ED onten huntsho Sr Forestry Officer FRMD
Bilateral i atera dis ssiondiscussion it re evantwith relevantsta e o ders stakeholders fro De e er from December 5-9, 2016 i atera dis ssion it re evant sta e o ders fro De e er o a e Desi nation r ani ation o Mr. a e Sonam angchuk SecretaryDesi nation ational r ani ation Land ommission Mr. SonamTashi angchuk Sr.Secretary Survey Engineer/Head adestral ational Land Information ommission Division, L Mr. Tashi igme Tenzin Sr. Survey Engineer,Engineer/Head head Land adestral Management Information Division, Division, L L (77115760)Mr. igme Tenzin Sr. Survey Engineer, head Land Management Division, L Mr.(77115760) orbu angchuk hief lanning Officer ross ational Happiness ommission Mr. orbu angchuk hief lanning Officer ( H ) ross ational Happiness ommission Mr. Mewang yeltshen Director Dept.( H ) of Renewable Energy, Ministry of Mr. Mewang yeltshen Director EconomicDept. of Renewable Affairs Energy, Ministry of Ms. Sonam Lhaden handu Dy. hief Environment Officer limateEconomic hangeAffairs Division, ational Ms. Sonam Lhaden handu Dy. hief Environment Officer Environment limate hange ommission Division, ational Mr. arma Dukpa hief Executive Officer aturalEnvironment Resources ommission Development Mr. arma Dukpa hief Executive Officer orporation atural Resources Ltd. ( RD L) Development Mr. Ashit hhetri rogram Officer roduction orporation nit, Ltd. ( RD L) RD L Mr. inleyAshit hhetri Tshering rogram Officer RD L roduction nit, RD L Ms.Mr. inleyTamang Tshering RD L Mr.Ms. inleyTamang Tshering hief Forestry Officer Forest RD L rotection and Enforcement Mr. inley Tshering hief Forestry Officer Division.,Forest rotection DoF S and Enforcement Mr. D.S Rai hief Executive Officer reenDivision., Bhutan DoF S orporation Mr. D.S ounten Rai orbu Dy. hief hief Executive Forestry Officer Officer Social reen ForestryBhutan orporation and Extension Division, Mr. ounten orbu Dy. hief Forestry Officer DoF SSocial Forestry and Extension Division, Ms. Sonam hoden Sr. Forestry Officer atershedDoF S Management Division, Ms. Sonam hoden Sr. Forestry Officer DoF S atershed Management Division, Ms. Sonam em Director TarayanaDoF S Foundation Ms. Sonam em Director Tarayana Foundation
145 145
134 Drivers of deforestation and forest degradation in Bhutan
Consultation workshop for Eastern Region from November 27-28, 2016 ons tation or s o for astern e ion fro ove er o a e Desi nation r ani ation
Sangay Tenzin Asst. District Livestock officer Department of Livestock , MoAF ommunity Forest Management Sherub hair person Local Organization/Tajarong F eog Administration Dorji Administration Local ovt. Administration
igme Dorji Livestock Extension Officer Department of Livestock, MoAF ommunity Forest Management Local Organization/ gar angkapzur Tashi Tenzin hair person F ommunity Forest Management Sangay Dorji hair person Local Organization/ akpugang F yempo yeltshen Engineer Bhutan ower orporation Department of Forest ark Services, Dendup Tshering Divisional Forest Officer MoAF
D Bhandari District Agriculture Officer Department of Agriculture, MoAF Department of Forest ark Services, arma Tempa ark Manager MoAF Department of Forest ark Services, .B Mongr Forest Officer MoAF Department of Forest ark Services, elzang angmo Sr. Forest Officer MoAF ado eog Adm. Officer Local ovt. Administration
Dorjee District Agriculture Officer Department of Agriculture, MoAF Sonam Reginal ordinator arma hophel eog Adm. Officer Local ovt. Administration Tshering huntsho eog Adm. Officer Local ovt. Administration
hampa District Agriculture Officer Department of Agriculture, MoAF Sonam hoden District Environment Officer District Administration Department of Forest ark Services, amgyang hoden Forest Officer MoAF Indra rasad Dahal Surveyor Local ovt. Administration ema Tsheten Surveyor Local ovt. Administration Department of Forest ark Services, Sonam angpo Sr. Forest Officer MoAF ezang enjor Executive Engineer Department of Roads, Mo HS
Dorji handu District Environment Officer District Administration Department of Forest ark Services, arma amtsho Sr. Ranger MoAF Department of Forest ark Services, hophel Sr. Ranger MoAF Department of Forest ark Services, Sonam Dorjee Divisional Forests Officer MoAF ema angchuk roject Manager Bhutan ower orporation Department of Forest ark Services, Tashi Sr. Ranger MoAF Department of Forest ark Services, Thinley angdi ark Manager MoAF 146 Sachin Limbu District Environment Officer District Administration
Tshering Dekar District Environment Officer District Administration
ta e o der ons tation for o t entra re ion fro Drivers De e er of deforestation and forest degradation in Bhutan 135
o a e Desi nation r ani ation hana shyamLamchaney SDD T( oordinator) Local Organization
Rinchen Dorji eographic Information System I ER, DoF S arma Dorji hief Engineer Department of Roads, Mo HS arma Dorji Executive Engineer Department of Roads, Mo HS Local Organization/ Rinchen inley angchuk hairman, ommunity Forest orbueling F gyen Lhaden eogAdm Officer Local overnmnet
assang angdi Asst. District Livestock Officer Department of Livestock,MoAF Sangay eogAdm Officer Local overnmnet
Tashi Dhendup Sr.Forest Officer Department of Forest ark Services
Sangay angchuk Forest Officer Department of Forest ark Services
Domang Sr.District Agriculture Officer District Administration gyenla Land Record Officer District Administration inley am Engineer Bhutan ower orporation ema angchuk District Livestock Officer Department of Livestock, MoAF
TandinDorji District Environment Officer District Administration
Tshering Dhendup ark Manager Department of Forest ark Services
inga Dorji Livestock production Officer Department of Livestock, MoAF DechenDorji Engineer Bhutan ower orporation
arma angchuk rogram Officer on overnment Organization
gyen amgyel ark Manager Department of Forest ark Services
encho Dukpa Divisional Forest Officer Department of Forest ark Services
Dimple Thapa Divisional Department of Forest ark Services arma Tenzin eogAdm Officer Local overnment 24 Tashi Dhendup Land Record Officer District Administration 25 handu angchuk Local Elected Leader Local overnment
147
Department of Forest ark Services, Tashi Sr. Ranger MoAF Department of Forest ark Services, Thinley angdi ark Manager MoAF
Sachin Limbu District Environment Officer District Administration
Tshering Dekar District Environment Officer District Administration
Stakeholder ta e o der ons tation Consultation for o t entra for re ion South-central fro De e er region from December 1-2, 2016
o a e Desi nation r ani ation hana shyamLamchaney SDD T( oordinator) Local Organization
Rinchen Dorji eographic Information System I ER, DoF S arma Dorji hief Engineer Department of Roads, Mo HS arma Dorji Executive Engineer Department of Roads, Mo HS Local Organization/ Rinchen inley angchuk hairman, ommunity Forest orbueling F gyen Lhaden eogAdm Officer Local overnmnet
assang angdi Asst. District Livestock Officer Department of Livestock,MoAF Sangay eogAdm Officer Local overnmnet
Tashi Dhendup Sr.Forest Officer Department of Forest ark Services
Sangay angchuk Forest Officer Department of Forest ark Services
Domang Sr.District Agriculture Officer District Administration gyenla Land Record Officer District Administration inley am Engineer Bhutan ower orporation ema angchuk District Livestock Officer Department of Livestock, MoAF
TandinDorji District Environment Officer District Administration
Tshering Dhendup ark Manager Department of Forest ark Services
inga Dorji Livestock production Officer Department of Livestock, MoAF DechenDorji Engineer Bhutan ower orporation
arma angchuk rogram Officer on overnment Organization
gyen amgyel ark Manager Department of Forest ark Services
encho Dukpa Divisional Forest Officer Department of Forest ark Services
Dimple Thapa Divisional Department of Forest ark Services arma Tenzin eogAdm Officer Local overnment 24 Tashi Dhendup Land Record Officer District Administration 25 handu angchuk Local Elected Leader Local overnment
26 Dorji handu ommunity Forest hairperson Local Organization/Tsherang F 27 huntsho hair erson, ommunity Forest Local Organization/ hhumey F atural Resources147 Deve. Dorji hebdang orporation Ltd. Simi overnment Organization
SangayDorji Sr. Forest Officer Department of Forest ark Services
Sithup Lhendup Sr. Forest Officer Department of Forest ark Services igme Dorji Department of eology Mines
Sarada Summar Forest Officer Department of Forest ark Services
Tshewang aimo Forester Department of Forest ark Services Mangmi (local elected hudu Tshering representative) Local overnment
Dorji Rabteen ark Manager Department of Forest ark Services
ambay gyen District Agriculture Officer Department of Agriculture, MoAF 136 DriversSangayDorj of deforestation and forest rivate degradation Entrepreneur in Bhutan Local Organization
hubDhendup Divisional Forests Officer Department of Forest ark Services
ta e o der ons tation for estern e ion fro De e er
o a e Desi nation r ani ation Dolay Tshering Sr. Forest Ranger SR Sonam yelpo Asst. Envt. Officer T/phuDzo hief Dzongkhag Agriculture Samtse Hari rasad Adhikari Officer onten huntsho Sr. Forestry Officer FRMD Thinley Bidha Field Officer Samtse Sonam uden Asst. Envt. Officer B ima orbu Dzongkhag Livestock Officer asa Thinley huntsho Asst. Dzongkhag Livestock Officer hukha hief Dzongkhag Agriculture hukha Sonam Officer Soanm amtsho eog Administrative Officer Loggchina/ hukha ezang Lhendup eog Administrative Officer Sephu/ angdue Tashi Dendup Forestry Officer angdue ima Dolma Tamang Asst. Environment Officer Thimphu Rixzin angchuk Forestry Officer SFED D.B Rasaily Sr. nit Manager ima yelpo Sr. Survey Engineer L /Tphu gawang Dorji Environment Officer Samtse Dhodo Sr. Dzongkhag Agriculture Officer Thimphu Dorji andi Dzongkhag Environment Officer angdue Sonam angpo Sr. Dzongkhag Agriculture Officer angdue arma Tenzin hief Forestry Officer angdue Hari Maya Asst. Engineer Darla
148
26 Dorji handu ommunity Forest hairperson Local Organization/Tsherang F
27 huntsho hair erson, ommunity Forest Local Organization/ hhumey F 26 Dorji handu ommunity Forest hairperson Local Organization/Tsherang F atural Resources Deve. 27 huntsho hair erson, ommunity Forest Local Organization/ hhumey F Dorji hebdang orporation Ltd. Simi overnment Organization atural Resources Deve.
Dorji hebdang orporation Ltd. Simi overnment Organization SangayDorji Sr. Forest Officer Department of Forest ark Services
SangayDorji Sr. Forest Officer Department of Forest ark Services Sithup Lhendup Sr. Forest Officer Department of Forest ark Services
igme Dorji Department of eology Mines Sithup Lhendup Sr. Forest Officer Department of Forest ark Services
igme Dorji Department of eology Mines Sarada Summar Forest Officer Department of Forest ark Services
Sarada Summar Forest Officer Department of Forest ark Services Tshewang aimo Forester Department of Forest ark Services
Mangmi (local elected Tshewang aimo Forester Department of Forest ark Services hudu Tshering representative) Local overnment Mangmi (local elected
hudu Tshering representative) Local overnment Dorji Rabteen ark Manager Department of Forest ark Services
Dorji Rabteen ark Manager Department of Forest ark Services ambay gyen District Agriculture Officer Department of Agriculture, MoAF
SangayDorj rivate Entrepreneur Local Organization ambay gyen District Agriculture Officer Department of Agriculture, MoAF
SangayDorj rivate Entrepreneur Local Organization hubDhendup Divisional Forests Officer Department of Forest ark Services
hubDhendup Divisional Forests Officer Department of Forest ark Services ta e o der ons tation for estern e ion fro De e er
Stakeholder ta e o der ons tation Consultation for estern for e ion Western fro De e er Region from December 27-28, 2016 o a e Desi nation r ani ation
Dolay Tshering Sr. Forest Ranger SR o a e Desi nation r ani ation Sonam yelpo Asst. Envt. Officer T/phuDzo Dolay Tshering Sr. Forest Ranger SR hief Dzongkhag Agriculture Samtse Sonam yelpo Asst. Envt. Officer T/phuDzo Hari rasad Adhikari Officer hief Dzongkhag Agriculture Samtse onten huntsho Sr. Forestry Officer FRMD Hari rasad Adhikari Officer Thinley Bidha Field Officer Samtse onten huntsho Sr. Forestry Officer FRMD Sonam uden Asst. Envt. Officer B Thinley Bidha Field Officer Samtse ima orbu Dzongkhag Livestock Officer asa Sonam uden Asst. Envt. Officer B Thinley huntsho Asst. Dzongkhag Livestock Officer hukha ima orbu Dzongkhag Livestock Officer asa hief Dzongkhag Agriculture hukha Thinley huntsho Asst. Dzongkhag Livestock Officer hukha Sonam Officer hief Dzongkhag Agriculture hukha Soanm amtsho eog Administrative Officer Loggchina/ hukha Sonam Officer ezang Lhendup eog Administrative Officer Sephu/ angdue Soanm amtsho eog Administrative Officer Loggchina/ hukha Tashi Dendup Forestry Officer angdue ezang Lhendup eog Administrative Officer Sephu/ angdue ima Dolma Tamang Asst. Environment Officer Thimphu Tashi Dendup Forestry Officer angdue Rixzin angchuk Forestry Officer SFED ima Dolma Tamang Asst. Environment Officer Thimphu D.B Rasaily Sr. nit Manager Rixzin angchuk Forestry Officer SFED ima yelpo Sr. Survey Engineer L /Tphu D.B Rasaily Sr. nit Manager gawang Dorji Environment Officer Samtse ima yelpo Sr. Survey Engineer L /Tphu Dhodo Sr. Dzongkhag Agriculture Officer Thimphu gawang Dorji Environment Officer Samtse Dorji andi Dzongkhag Environment Officer angdue Dhodo Sr. Dzongkhag Agriculture Officer Thimphu Sonam angpo Sr. Dzongkhag Agriculture Officer angdue Dorji andi Dzongkhag Environment Officer angdue arma Tenzin hief Forestry Officer angdue Sonam angpo Sr. Dzongkhag Agriculture Officer angdue Hari Maya Asst. Engineer Darla arma Tenzin hief Forestry Officer angdue Hari Maya Asst. Engineer Darla hunu halley r. Engineer Darla Lobzang Dorji hief Forestry Officer148 FRMD Sigyel Delma Dy hief Forestry148 Officer MD B Samal onsultant MD Samten angchuk Dy hief Forestry Officer MD Lungten orbu Specialist MD idup Tshering Asst. livestock Officer MD inley Dem Forest Ranger MD
ar des ri tion s atia tas s for tan
ollect all relevant data, but from DoF S, satellite data available in the public domain (such as lobal Forest atch and others). Spatially disaggregate data by sub-region and forest type. Methods: Assess what spatial information al-ready exists in DoF S, including different datasets during the L (1995) and L M (2011) mapping processes, and FREL development. Ensure data and analysis can be integrated into Bhutan s FMS. Spatially explicit analyses, spa-tially disaggregated by sub-region and forest type, and including uantification of emissions/removals. Spatially identify deforestation and forest degradation hot-spots and geographic areas where the pressure stems from. orrelate land use change to specific drivers of deforestation and forest Drivers of deforestation and forest degradation in Bhutan degradation and their socio-economic context (refer to next task) 137
atia data ana sis
a in rea The mapping area for the Land use classification is the total area of Bhutan
i re rea of interest a in and ana sis tas
149
hunu halley r. Engineer Darla Lobzang Dorji hief Forestry Officer FRMD Sigyel Delma Dy hief Forestry Officer MD B Samal onsultant MD Samten angchuk Dy hief Forestry Officer MD Lungten orbu Specialist MD idup Tshering Asst. livestock Officer MD inley Dem Forest Ranger MD
Annex 3: Methodological outline and protocol - GIS and spatial tasks ar Summary des ri tion description s atia spatial tas s fortasks tan for Bhutan:
ollectCollect all all relevant relevant data, data, but but from from DoF S, DoFPS, satellite satellite data dataavailable available in the inpublic the publicdomain domain (such as lobal(such Forestas Global atch Forest and others).Watch and Spatially others). disaggregate Spatially datadisaggregate by sub-region data andby sub-region forest type. Methods:and forest Assess type. what Methods: spatial informationAssess what al-ready spatial exists information in DoF S, al-ready including exists different in DoFPS,datasets duringincluding the L different (1995) datasets and L M during (2011) themapping LUPP processes, (1995) and FREL LCMP development. (2011) mapping Ensure dataprocesses, and analysis and FRELcan be development. integrated into EnsureBhutan s data FMS. and Spatially analysis explicit can be analyses, integrated spa-tially into disaggregatedBhutan’s NFMS. by sub-region Spatially and explicit forest type, analyses, and including spa-tially uantification disaggregated of emissions/removals. by sub-region Spatiallyand forest identify type, deforestation and including and quantifcation forest degradation of emissions/removals. hot-spots and geographic Spatially areas where identify the deforestation and forest degradation hot-spots and geographic areas where the pressure pressure stems from. orrelate land use change to specific drivers of deforestation and forest stems from. Correlate land use change to specifc drivers of deforestation and forest degradationdegradation and and their their socio-economic socio-economic context context (refer (refer to next to task)next task)
atia Spatial data data ana sis analysis
a in Mapping rea Area TheThe mapping mapping area area for forthe the Land Land use classificationuse classifcation is the totalis the area total of Bhutanarea of Bhutan
Figure 39: Area of interest (mapping and analysis task) i re rea of interest a in and ana sis tas The following spatial data were received from Bhutan on which basis the land cover and land use change analysis was done: 149 • Country boundaries (Vector data) • Forest management units (Vector data) • Community forest (Vector data) • ICMOD Land use and landcover data (2000, 2010 als Raster Data) • LCMP 2010 Land use and Land cover data (Raster und Vector data; combination from Landsat imagery (2004-2009).
Satellite imagery: For the LUC in Bhutan we used Landsat 8 imageries from USGS: http://earthexplorer.
138 Drivers of deforestation and forest degradation in Bhutan
The following spatial data were received from Bhutan on which basis the land cover and land use The following spatial data were received from Bhutan on which basis the land cover and land use change analysis was done: change analysis was done: ountry boundaries ( ector data) ountry boundaries ( ector data) Forest management units ( ector data) Forest management units ( ector data) ommunity forest ( ector data) ommunity forest ( ector data) I MOD Land use and landcover data (2000, 2010 als Raster Data) I MOD Land use and landcover data (2000, 2010 als Raster Data) L M 2010 Land use and Land cover data (Raster und ector data combination from L M 2010 Land use and Land cover data (Raster und ector data combination from Landsat imagery (2004-2009). Landsat imagery (2004-2009).
ate ite i a er ate ite i a er For the L in Bhutan we used Landsat 8 imageries from S S: http://earthexplorer.usgs.gov/. For the L in Bhutan we used Landsat 8 imageries from S S: http://earthexplorer.usgs.gov/. The images are from 2015 winter season as being cloud free. Bhutan is covered with two scenes, The images are from 2015 winter season as being cloud free. Bhutan is covered with two scenes, usgs.gov/.however, a The third images scene is are necessary from 2015 (only awinter small part)season for theas esternbeing cloud part offree. Bhutan. Bhutan The is however, a third scene is necessary (only a small part) for the estern part of Bhutan. The coveredresolution with is 30x30 two scenes, m, the images however, user aare: third scene is necessary (only a small part) for the resolution is 30x30 m, the images user are: Western1. 1370412015316 part of Bhutan. The resolution is 30x30 m, the images user are: 1. 1370412015316 2. • 13804120153231370412015316 2. 1380412015323 3. • 13904120153621380412015323 3. 1390412015362 • 1390412015362
and se ana sis assifi ation sin t e oft are r Land and use se ana sis assifi ationanalysis/classifcation sin t e using oft are the Software r ArcGIS 10.2 For the classification of the different types of land uses comparing with the land use classes from ForFor the the classifcationclassification of theof thedifferent different types typesof land ofuses land comparing uses comparing with the land with use classes the land from use I IMOD 2000 2010, satellite images from 2015 with 8 bands were used. For the better classesI IMOD from 2000 ICIMOD 2010, satellite 2000 & images 2010, from satellite 2015 withimages 8 bands from were 2015 used. with For 8 the bands better were detection of vegetation cover and soil types oogle imageries were used as validation tool. used.detection For theof vegetation better detection cover and of soil vegetation types oogle cover imageries and soil were types used asGoogle validation imageries tool. were used as validation tool. a e e tra ands of sate ite i a e a e e tra ands of sate ite i a e Table 22: Spectral bands of satellite image
Table a e 23: Band and o inationcombination a e (Image n ant ents Enchantments anne / Channel i rove ent improvement) to rod e to produce and a e and o ination a e n ant ents anne i rove ent to rod e and Land se assifi ationuse classifcation se assifi ation 150 150 the D I is very sensitive Index to soil colour, soil moisture, shading effects caused by solar and *theviewing NDVI angle is verygeometry, sensitive vegetation Index cover: to soil leaf colour, area index, soil phenology moisture, and shading physiological effects status caused of bythe solar vegetation, and viewing vertical angle structure geometry, of the plant vegetation community cover: (e.g. leafopen area grassland index, vs. phenologymulti-layered and physiologicalforest). status of the vegetation, vertical structure of the plant community (e.g. open grassland vs. multi-layered forest). reatin trainin area it ra oints
Drivers of deforestation and forest degradation in Bhutan 139
e e e a al
151
the D I is very sensitive Index to soil colour, soil moisture, shading effects caused by solar and viewing angle geometry, vegetation cover: leaf area index, phenology and physiological status of the vegetation, vertical structure of the plant community (e.g. open grassland vs. multi-layered forest). Creating training area with Accuracy Points reatin trainin area it ra oints
e e e a al
151
140 Drivers of deforestation and forest degradation in Bhutan
ra ana sis for ro nd r t in
152
Accuracy analysis for Ground Truthing The accuracy ra of ana sis the classifed for ro nd maps r t in was assessed from high resolution Google Earth The accuracy of the classified maps was assessed from high resolution oogle Earth ro images Pro images and Landsat 8, band 1 –to 8 to increase the resolution from 30 m to 15 and Landsat 8, band 1 to 8 to increase the resolution from 30 m to 15 m with pan-sharpening. m with pan-sharpening. Finally we compared the ground truthing accuracy 2015 for Finally we compared the ground truthing accuracy 2015152 for each of the 11 classes with I IMOD each2010 dataset.of the 11 classes with ICIMOD 2010 dataset.
Table a e 24: ra Accuracy assess ent assessment of and overof land cover 2015
a e o arison D ro nd r t in Drivers of deforestation D ro nd and forest r t in degradation notin Bhutan 141 avai a e
ro n over na sis to assess forest de radation For the crown cover analysis and the change detection between 2000-2015 we used the same steps of classification and ground truthing as explained above. e defined the crown cover in three percent classes based on Landsat images (2015, 2010, 2000)
153
The accuracy of the classified maps was assessed from high resolution oogle Earth ro images and Landsat 8, band 1 to 8 to increase the resolution from 30 m to 15 m with pan-sharpening. Finally we compared the ground truthing accuracy 2015 for each of the 11 classes with I IMOD 2010 dataset.
a e ra assess ent of and over
a e o arison D ro nd r t in D ro nd r t in not Table 25: Comparison ICIMOD Ground Truthing 2010; ICIMOD Ground Truthing 2000 avai a enot available
ro nCrown over Cover na sis Analysis to –assess to assess forest forest de radation degradation ForFor the the crown crown cover cover analysis analysis and andthe changethe change detection detection between between 2000-2015 2000-2015 we used we the used same the same steps of classifcation and ground truthing as explained above. We defned steps of classification and ground truthing as explained above. e defined the crown cover in the crown cover in three percent classes based on Landsat images (2015, 2010, 2000) three percent classes based on Landsat images (2015, 2010, 2000) Table a e 26: ro nCrown overcover % assesclasses
153
rocedure for rown cover analysis Procedure for Crown cover analysis 1.1. Create reate random random points points tool and tool tanning and tanning areas areasfor forest for foresttypes (conifer, types (conifer, broadleaf broadleaf forestsforests and andmixed mixed forests) forests) to defne to define Crown rown cover cover classes classes in ineach each period period 2000, 2000, 2010 2010and and 2015 2015 2.2. SaveSave the trainingthe training area area signature signature fle file and and run run the the max. max. likelihood likelihood classifcation classification 3.3. ExtractExtract values values to points to points tool tool (from (from raster raster to polygon)to polygon) 4. Add XY coordinates tool (intersection with admin units of Bhutan) 4. Add coordinates tool (intersection with admin units of Bhutan) 5. Edit and sort attribute table (raster value in crown cover %) 6.5. ExportEdit data and fromsort attributeattribute table table (raster value in crown cover %) 7.6. AnalyzeExport the data frequency from attribute for predicted table classes und ground truth points 8.7. ConvertAnalyze shapefle the fre uency to .kmz for predicted classes und ground truth points 8. onvert shapefile to .kmz
Annex 4: Trends in SRFL allotment and indication of future trend
Trends in SRFL allotment are described below, with indication of what the historical trends indicate for the future. These fgures do not refect known development proposals,Trends in SRFhowever, allotment and thus are describedthe transmission below, withline allotments indication ofindicate what thea decreasing historical trends trend,indicate whereas for the accordingfuture. These to known figures development do not reflect plans, known the developmentopposite is the proposals, case however, and thus the transmission line allotments indicate a decreasing trend, whereas according to known development plans, the opposite is the case
r ose for a ot ent istori trend Increasing 142 Drivers ofAllotments deforestation and for forest various degradation unspecified in Bhutan purposes 10,000
0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Allotments for various unspecified purposes RF allotment (ha) Linear (Allotments for various unspecified purposes)
154
a e ro n over asses
rocedure for rown cover analysis 1. reate random points tool and tanning areas for forest types (conifer, broadleaf forests and mixed forests) to define rown cover classes in each period 2000, 2010 and 2015 2. Save the training area signature file and run the max. likelihood classification 3. Extract values to points tool (from raster to polygon) 4. Add coordinates tool (intersection with admin units of Bhutan) 5. Edit and sort attribute table (raster value in crown cover %) 6. Export data from attribute table 7. Analyze the fre uency for predicted classes und ground truth points 8. onvert shapefile to .kmz
Trends in SRF allotment are described below, with indication of what the historical trends indicate for the future. These figures do not reflect known development proposals, however, Source:and thus theKatwal transmission et al., line 2011; allotments Department indicate of a decreasing Forest and trend, Park whereas Services according /Ministry to of Agricultureknown development and Forests, plans, the 2013; opposite 2014; is the and case 2015.
r ose for a ot ent istori trend Increasing Allotments for various unspecified purposes 10,000
0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Allotments for various unspecified purposes RF allotment (ha) Linear (Allotments for various unspecified purposes)
Increasing Roads 3,000
2,000
1,000
0
RF allotment (ha) 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Roads Linear 154(Roads)
Decreasing Transmission lines 1,000
500
0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 RF allotment (ha) Transmission lines Linear (Transmission lines)
Decreasing Lease 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500
RF RF allotment (ha) 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Lease Linear (Lease)
Decreasing overnment institutions 500 ( ote: category 400 not reported in 300 2014 stats) 200 100
RF allotment (ha) 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
overnment institutions Linear ( overnment institutions)
Drivers of deforestation and forest degradation in Bhutan 143 155
Decreasing Lhakhang 15 ( ote: category not reported in 10 2013 and 2014 5 stats) 0
RF allotment (ha) 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Lhakhang Linear (Lhakhang)
Increasing Satshab/land substitution 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 RF RF allotment (ha)
Satshab/land substitution Linear (Satshab/land substitution)
Increasing idu land allotment 150
100
50
0 RF allotment (ha) 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
idu land allotment Linear ( idu land allotment)
Decreasing Land exchange 40 ( ote category not 30 reported in 2013 20 and 2014 stats) 10 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
RF allotment (ha) -10 -20
Land exchange Linear (Land exchange)
Figure 40: Trends in SRFL allotments 2008-2014
156
144 Drivers of deforestation and forest degradation in Bhutan
Annex 5: Stratifed stocking volumes applied in this study
orest trata o a o a enario enario a a
158
Drivers of deforestation and forest degradation in Bhutan 145
159
146 Drivers of deforestation and forest degradation in Bhutan