Drivers of Deforestation and Forest Degradation in Bhutan Watershed Management Division Department of Forests and Park Services Ministry of Agriculture and Forests Bhutan March 2017 Acknowledgements The Watershed Management Division, Department of Forests & Park Services, Ministry of Agriculture & Forests, acknowledges its sincere appreciation to all the organizations, both within as well as outside the Government administration, for contributing valuable information for preparation of this document on “Drivers of Deforestation & Forest Degradation in Bhutan”. The document is one of the key outputs of the REDD+ Readiness Preparation Proposal (R-PP) of Bhutan which has received fnancial support from the Forest Carbon Partnership Facility (FCPF) of the World Bank. Special thanks are due to Mrs. Gabrielle Kissinger and Mr. Matthias Seebauer (international consultants) for collecting, consolidating and analyzing the available data and for preparing this document, and Mr. K.B. Samal (national consultant) for providing the national context and supporting the international consultants. We express our sincere gratitude to Hon’ble Lyonpo and Dasho Secretary, Ministry of Agriculture & Forests for their overall guidance. We also thank the Director, Department of Forests & Park Services for his particular interest in guiding this study. We are especially grateful to the team from the Forest Resources Management Division led by Mr. Lobzang Dorji, Chief Forestry Offcer, for providing relevant information and critically reviewing this document. Special mention should be made of the important role played by the GIS team. Our sincere thanks goes to the members of the REDD+ Task Force, the Technical Working Groups and other offcials who have participated in the two review write- shops conducted for reviewing and refning this document. We also would like to thank the participants of the various stakeholder consultation workshops, the interviewees and other offcials for their substantial insights and contributions. Finally, this study would not have been possible without the support of the FCPF, World Bank and specifcally the leadership of Ms. Dora Cudjoe, Task Team Leader, who supported us throughout this process. Drivers of deforestation and forest degradation in Bhutan 3 4 Drivers of deforestation and forest degradation in Bhutan Table of Contents Executive Summary ........................................................................................... 12 1. Overview and context ..................................................................................... 37 2. Analytical framework ..................................................................................... 40 3. Direct drivers of deforestation and forest degradation ..................................... 43 3.1 Land Use Cover Change Analysis ............................................................. 43 3.1.1 Spatial analysis .............................................................................. 43 3.2 Results - Deforestation ........................................................................... 51 3.2.1 Deforestation at the national level .................................................. 51 3.2.2 Deforestation at District-levels ....................................................... 51 3.2.3 Assessment of deforestation patterns ............................................. 53 3.2.4 Drivers of deforestation .................................................................. 54 3.2.5 Comparing statistical records with spatial results .......................... 61 3.2.6 Ranking of deforestation drivers ..................................................... 62 3.3. Results - forest degradation .................................................................... 63 3.3.1 Summary national results of Degradation ...................................... 63 3.3.2 District level assessment of degradation ......................................... 64 3.3.3 Assessment of degradation patterns ............................................... 70 3.3.4 Drivers of forest degradation .......................................................... 74 3.3.5 Comparing statistical records with spatial results .......................... 82 3.3.6 Ranking of degradation drivers ....................................................... 83 3.4 Estimation of carbon stock changes between 2000, 2010 and 2015 to quantify forest degradation ........................................................ 84 4. Actors, motivations and underlying drivers .................................................... 89 4.1 Methodology ............................................................................................ 89 4.2 Actor and motivation analysis ................................................................. 89 4.3. Governance challenges and law enforcement .......................................... 92 4.3.1 Decisions without integrated planning and guidelines, particularly related to cross-sector alignment or confict (sub-issue is lack of spatial planning guidance) ...................... 92 4.3.2 Implications of expanding hydropower ........................................... 94 4.3.3 Capacity constraints and/or weak management, including law enforcement and controlling illegal activity ........................ 95 4.3.4 Rural subsidized timber allotment .................................................. 96 4.3.5 Climate change is not yet mainstreamed into development planning ............................................................................. 98 4.4 Economic, social, poverty and tenure aspects .......................................... 98 4.4.1 Poverty ........................................................................................... 99 4.4.2 Demographic factors ...................................................................... 99 5. Opportunities for “+” activities ....................................................................... 100 6. Future deforestation and forest degradation ................................................... 102 6.1. Methodology ........................................................................................... 102 6.2 Projecting the impact of deforestation drivers .......................................... 102 Drivers of deforestation and forest degradation in Bhutan 5 6.2.1 Allotment of SRFL for various purposes .......................................... 102 6.2.2 Hydropower ................................................................................... 103 6.2.3 Roads ............................................................................................ 104 6.2.4 Agriculture ..................................................................................... 104 6.2.5 Mining ........................................................................................... 105 6.2.6 Power lines..................................................................................... 106 6.3 Projecting the impact of degradation drivers ............................................ 106 6.3.1 Timber harvesting .......................................................................... 106 6.3.2 Firewood ........................................................................................ 107 6.3.3 Fires .............................................................................................. 109 6.3.4 Livestock ........................................................................................ 109 6.4 Future forest degradation risk analysis ................................................... 110 7. Regulatory and policy framework ................................................................... 115 7.1 Overarching policy and legislation ........................................................... 115 7.2. Land ...................................................................................................... 116 7.3 Forests .................................................................................................... 118 7.4 Community and Social forestry provisions ............................................... 120 7.5 Climate Change ....................................................................................... 120 7.6 Biodiversity ............................................................................................. 121 7.7 Water ...................................................................................................... 121 7.8 Other concepts of note ............................................................................ 122 8. Recommendations for criteria to prioritize strategic options and pathways to address direct and underlying drivers ......................... 123 9. Recommendations for policy and measure responses to address drivers ......... 128 10. References ................................................................................................... 136 Annexes ............................................................................................................. 140 Annex 1: Hydropower projects in Bhutan ........................................................... 140 Annex 2: Interviews and persons consulted ........................................................ 144 Annex 3: Methodological outline and protocol - GIS and spatial tasks ................ 151 Annex 4: Trends in SRFL allotment and indication of future trend ..................... 157 Annex 5: Stratifed stocking volumes applied in this study ................................. 160 List of Tables