Election FOCUS

March 3, 2004 U.S. Department of State ISSUE 1 • NO 6

Inside This Issue: Super Tuesday Wins Position Kerry

• The Results for Democratic Presidential Nomination The Super Tuesday Super Tuesday was so “super” for Race ...... page1 Massachusetts Senator March 2 that • African Americans and the the now-apparent Democratic presidential nomi- 2004 U.S. Elections: nee received congratulatory telephone calls not An Interview with only from North Carolina Senator John Dr. Ron Walters ...... page 1 Edwards, his remaining major rival for the posi- tion, but also from President George W. Bush, • Campaign Highlight: Democratic presidential hopeful Senator John Kerry the presumed Republican re-nominee. Bush Begins Campaign . page 5 with daughter, Vanessa, left, stepson, Chris Heinz, right, and wife Teresa Heinz-Kerry, far right, cele- So-named because it was the biggest day on brates primary victories for the Democratic presidential nomination on March 2, 2004, in the election calendar — with contests involving Washington D.C. (AP Photo/Lawrence Jackson) one-fifth of the nation’s states and one-third of its eligible voters — Super Tuesday resulted in Kerry gaining a near sweep and the Edwards camp saying its candidate was scheduled to announce his departure from the race at a news conference on March 3. Kerry sailed to coast-to-coast victories by large margins in primaries in California, FAST FACTS: Connecticut, Georgia, Maryland, Massachusetts, New York, Ohio and Rhode Island, ✔ States with large Hispanic popula- (continued on page 2) tions, such as Arizona, Nevada, New Mexico and Florida will likely play an important role in the 2004 African Americans and the 2004 election: in 2000, contests in those U.S. Elections: An Interview with states were decided by 6 percentage points or fewer. Dr. Ron Walters

--Arizona Daily Sun In a recent interview, Dr. Ron Walters, director of the African American Leadership Institute at the University of Maryland, spoke with Washington File staff writer Darlisa Crawford about the role of African Americans in the 2004 election. Dr. Walters is a recognized expert on African American involvement in electoral politics and a frequent political commentator on network television. To receive this newsletter Also see this issue’s Campaign Highlight feature which includes a discussion of via a listserv go to: outreach to minority voters by the Republican Party. www.usembassy.de/mail Q: What are the major issues for African Americans in the 2004 election? Walters: The Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies, which is a black think tank, has done surveys in the past several election cycles, and the same (continued on page 3) ELECTION FOCUS 2004

(continued from page 1) Washington Post writer David was very close during the 2000 presiden- Broder says that “for a politically polar- tial election. Perhaps the most important and in caucuses in Minnesota. The victo- ized nation,” the campaign almost one, Cook adds, is Ohio, with other ries gave him a cumulative total of more certainly will result in a close election. Midwestern states, the Pacific Northwest than 1,385 Democratic National Current opinion polls give Kerry a and Florida being critical as well. Convention delegates pledged to his lead over Bush that many analysts attrib- Between now and June 18, primaries nomination. A total of 2,162 delegates to ute to the media attention paid to the and caucuses will still be held in 21 states. the July 26-29 convention in Boston are Democratic nomination battles, while the Contests in Florida, Louisiana, Missis- needed to officially win the nomination. president had no primary opposition and sippi and Texas are next, on March 9. Voters in Vermont, the only other Republican voter turnout was much lower. The San Francisco Chronicle, in an state holding a March 2 primary, gave the But Bush has raised more campaign editorial noting that the Democrats have bulk of their convention delegate support money than any candidate in history — emerged from the primary season with to “favorite son” former Governor approximately $140 million to Kerry’s an unusual level of cohesion, added that Howard Dean, even though he dropped $32 million to date — and his re-election Kerry does not have the intra-party out of the contest on February 18. team planned later this week to begin a wounds that often have burdened his The two long-shot candidates still in series of television ads that will try to predecessors. Calling the primaries “pos- the Democratic race, Ohio Congressman convince voters the country will be better itive and substantive,” the newspaper said Dennis Kucinich and the Reverend Al off with the president remaining in the there appears to be “a formidable nomi- Sharpton of New York, finished far back White House another four years and also nee to challenge Bush and his policies.” in all 10 Super Tuesday events, receiving attempt to show Kerry as a liberal who As they were in the earlier less than 10 percent of the vote even in changes his position on issues and is soft Democratic primaries, voters will be their respective home states. Both said on defense. driven in the upcoming events by a deter- they would continue to campaign. While Kerry’s momentum and 27 mination to oust Bush from office. Many A spokesman for Bush said that in a victories in the 30 primaries and caucus- of them have an unfavorable opinion of call from the White House, the president es held to date (including the District of the president even though he remains told Kerry he had had “an impressive Columbia) have been impressive, they very popular among Republicans and night” and “won the nomination against a have still involved only a relatively small many Independents. tough field.” Bush added that he looked number of voters compared to the more An editorial in USA Today says an forward to “a spirited race.” A Kerry than 100 million ballots expected to be angry voter base “is not enough to cap- spokesman described the call as “very cast in the November general election. ture the presidency” because elections nice,” and said the senator’s reply was According to some political analysts, are won by attracting political moderates that he “looked forward to having a many Americans still do not know much and Independents, comprising one-third debate on the issues.” about Kerry, and the election could turn of the electorate, who can be “turned Policy lines are clearly drawn on which political party does the best job off ” by partisan rage. Both Kerry and between the two men, with sharp dis- in defining him, the Democrats in a posi- Bush, the newspaper points out, face the agreements already expressed on the tive light or the Republicans more similar challenge of appealing to conduct of war in Iraq, the economy, negatively. Independents while still keeping their abortion, homosexual rights, the death Veteran political observer Charlie loyal supporters energized. ■ penalty and the Second Amendment right Cook says the battleground will be in 16 to carry weapons. or 17 of the 50 states, where the voting

— BUREAU OF — The U.S. Department of State is pleased to present its election coverage newsletter, Election Focus 2004. The INTERNATIONAL newsletter will provide non-partisan coverage of the U.S. election process, featuring articles, interviews, public opinion INFORMATION polls, and other information on the presidential primaries, debates, conventions and campaign activities of the major PROGRAMS presidential candidates. Election Focus 2004 is produced by the Democracy and Human Rights team in the Bureau of International Information U.S. DEPARTMENT OF STATE Programs.

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(continued from page 1) Q: In 2002, the Joint Center for Political and Economic African Americans and the Studies asked black 2004 U.S. Elections respondents in its issues come up. The top one, right national survey to identify now, is employment — jobs — themselves as either because black unemployment is dou- Democrats, Independents ble white unemployment. It’s about 11 or Republicans. Although percent, whites are about 5.1 or 5.2 63 percent claimed to be percent. So that’s a critical issue in the Democrats, the number black community, because there’s so was down from 74 percent much unemployment. Then, of course, in 2000. Is this trend education is important. We’re now com- continuing and is the memorating the Brown v. Board of Republican Party making Education decision of 50 years ago, special efforts to bring “Generally speaking, when the Supreme Court decided to African Americans back the black youth vote will integrate American schools. And yet, to the party of Abraham we still live in a highly segregated envi- Lincoln? be important, since that ronment with respect to education, where 80 percent of young black kids Walters: The Republican Party in population constitutes about go to schools that are more than 50 per- each election cycle has claimed that 40 percent of the total black cent black and 60 percent of whites go they are making such efforts, but it’s to schools that are more than 50 percent very difficult to see them. African population. There has been white. Americans will say, for example, that an effort to increase youth they have changed their party identifi- So, education — especially higher turnout because it runs in education — is a big issue because cation. Right now, however, the growth that is the route to social mobility and in party identification is for neither the mid-30 percent range, major party, but with Independents. professional status. Things like grants compared to over 50 percent and government funding are a primary Ye t, when you look at how people concern. actually vote, African Americans voted for older African American 90 percent Democrat in the last elec- adults.” And then, of course, health care is tion in each age group. So, although very important, because of the gaps in some of the past Joint Center studies --Dr. Ron Walters many health-related diseases and con- show that younger blacks below the ditions between blacks and whites, and age of 35 were more conservative on also gaps in the treatment of those some issues, still, when it came to conditions and insurance coverage. political behavior, they voted pretty Those are the top three. much like their elders. The war in Iraq is in fourth place according to some recent studies and Q: How have recent polling information, primarily because efforts to redraw legislative blacks have become such a high pro- districts in states such as portion of the casualties. Twenty Texas impacted minority percent of the casualties in Iraq are communities? African American, so that’s an obvious Walters: The question of redistrict- concern, as well as the concern about ing in Texas is one that will eventually the use of the financial resources be decided by the courts because of going to the war.

The opinions expressed in this article are those of the interviewee and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of the U.S. Government.

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the irregularities in redistricting. The drives aimed at youth? [*Editor’s Note: Carol Moseley issue here is whether or not this dilu- Braun served in the U.S. Senate from tion of both the black and Hispanic Walters: There are many special Illinois from 1993-1999, and most vote runs afoul of the Voting Rights voter registration drives aimed at recently also ran for president during Act of 1965. Many experts believe youth. MTV, of course — which is the the Democratic Party primaries and that redistricting is legal, but in the youth-oriented television network — caucuses.] minds of many lawyers, it is a clear generally has a number of programs Secondly, to the extent that he is violation, because it has diluted these aimed at young people. But, the big able to collect delegates, he will be votes. And so, that fight will go on, non-partisan organization called Youth able to represent African American and it probably will not affect African Vote is funded by a number of interests at the convention, and with Americans unless many of the states sources, and it is perhaps the main the potential nominee of the party. adopt mid-term redistricting. That’s organization that targets youth voting. The larger his delegate group, then the one of the reasons why I think that There is an organization called more influence he will have. eventually the practice will be thrown Black Youth Vote, which is part of the People compare Sharpton to out by the Supreme Court. larger organization, the National Reverend Jesse Jackson, who first ran Coalition on Black Civic Participation. Q: How will the voter for the presidency in 1984, and who Black Youth Vote has been in existence reform efforts since the 2000 took 384 delegates to the convention for quite awhile, and it targets young election impact the African that year. By 1988, when Jackson ran people below the age of 35. Generally American constituency? again, he took 1,200 delegates to the speaking, the black youth vote will be convention. So, he was obviously in a Walters: It should boost the vote, important, since that population con- very, very strong position to exercise insofar as the Help America Vote Act stitutes about 40 percent of the total leverage. That is the hope of many has provided economic resources to black population. There has been an people: that Sharpton will be able to states and localities for purchasing effort to increase youth turnout replicate some aspect of Jesse modern voting machines. Those because it runs in the mid-30 percent Jackson’s feat in presidential politics. machines should help to increase the range, compared to over 50 percent for African American turnout figures, older African American adults. Q: Are there any other because their votes were disproportion- Q: Why is Al Sharpton’s comments that you want ately thrown out during the last campaign significant and to add? presidential election. Some of that has how long will he remain Walters: In the 2000 election cycle, been traced to the fact that the older in the race? African American registration had voting machines are placed in inner- pulled pretty much even with whites. city areas. So, if the new machines are Walters: Al Sharpton’s campaign is The difference between the two was put in these areas, then it should cer- significant, first of all, because he rep- only two percent. African Americans tainly help to record the African resents African Americans who had also pulled even with whites in vot- American vote. Other important generally are absent at the higher lev- ing. The difference there was only 2.9 aspects of electoral reform include bet- els of national politics. We’ve never percent. That’s something that is very ter training for poll workers, better had an African American president, we important, because it’s been a long road management of voter lists, voters’ abil- don't have blacks in the *Senate of the since the Voting Rights Act of 1965. ity to check their voting status, voting United States. There are 39 in the And in most of that time, the black vote right restoration of those with prior House of Representatives, and only and registration was significantly felony convictions and other things. one on the Supreme Court. So, when behind the white vote. In 2000, African you look at the higher levels of gov- Q: Will African American Americans virtually caught up. In the ernment, blacks are missing, and so to youth be an important 2004 election cycle, therefore, I have Sharpton represented in the race factor in this election, and wouldn’t be surprised if the black vote is a plus for African Americans. are special voter registration actually surpassed the white vote. ■

The opinions expressed in this article are those of the interviewee and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of the U.S. Government.

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Campaign★★Highlight

ing through cable TV allows the cam- Bush Team Begins Campaign paign to target its advertising to specific constituencies and be on the With 20 Democratic primaries and of the public nature of his or her posi- air everywhere, including in states that caucuses over the last two months and tion, has greater visibility and more of may not be in play in the election.” the Super Tuesday primaries yesterday, an opportunity to meet voters and dis- The Bush team will also begin media focus has been on the cuss vital policy positions. In addition running campaign ads on Spanish-lan- Democratic candidates vying for their to the president’s campaign, Vice guage networks such as Univision and party’s nomination. This may have President Dick Cheney, First Lady Telemundo in New Mexico, Florida, begun to change, however, on February , Lynne Cheney, and other Nevada and Arizona, advisers to the 23, when President Bush began his high-ranking administration officials campaign said. The Bush-Cheney general election campaign. In a speech have also been actively campaigning website can also be viewed in Spanish. to Republican governors, Bush defend- on his behalf. According to the New ed his presidential record and sought Yo rk Times, in recent months they The emphasis on Spanish-lan- to distinguish himself from the have attended more than 100 fundrais- guage campaign ads reflect a greater Democratic candidates. “Our oppo- ers around the country. In addition, a effort on the part of the Bush cam- nents have not offered much in the way network of over 400 people who raise paign to reach out to minority voters of strategies to win the war, or policies funds in 45 states have raised at least this election. In the 2000 election, for- to expand our economy,” he said. $100,000 each. mer Vice President Al Gore won 62 percent of the Hispanic vote, com- “It’s a choice between keeping the Also speaking on February 23, pared to Bush’s 35 percent. According tax relief that is moving the economy Vice President Cheney in a speech in to Bush campaign officials, the presi- forward, or putting the burden of high- Wichita, Kansas, discussed the admin- dent believes it is important to reach er taxes back on the American istration’s record on the war on terror out to those voters who may not speak people,” he continued. “It’s a choice and on rebuilding Iraq and English as their first language. between an America that leads the Afghanistan. “I think we’ve got a world with strength and confidence, or record of accomplishment to show for In states with large Hispanic pop- an America that is uncertain in the our efforts, he said. “I think the ulations such as Arizona, New face of danger.” American people can be confident of a Mexico, Florida, Nevada and Arizona, better future, stronger economy, and a the 2000 presidential election was Although the speech marks what greater security… because of the lead- decided by six percentage points or many say is the formal start of the ership of George W. Bush.” less, according to the Associated Bush campaign, fundraising and other Press. And with nine million Hispanic campaign efforts in support of the In addition to the more traditional voters expected to register by president’s re-election bid have been “stump speeches” that often signify November, presidential candidates going on for some months. According the start of a campaign, the Bush team have recognized the necessity of to news sources, in terms of fundrais- is expected to begin its media cam- courting these voters. ing, the Bush campaign has raised paign on March 4, having reserved over $143 million overall and $12 mil- time on several television stations. The Bush-Cheney campaign has lion in January alone. This formidable Thus far, according to the Associated also made an effort to reach out to bankroll will fund, for example, the Press, at least $4.5 million worth of African American voters as well. television commercials that the Bush airtime has been bought on stations According to Sharon Castillo, a campaign is expected to begin running such as CNN, MSNBC, CNBC, Fox spokesperson for the Bush-Cheney on March 4. News Network and ESPN, a sports campaign, the campaign has made an network. According to the Associated aggressive effort to ensure that small, Any incumbent official, by virtue Press, “Political analysts say advertis- local African American newspapers

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will have access to officials and infor- primary fundraising tool — it raised appeared that the Bush team would mation that matches the level of larger only about $3.5 million online — the wait until the spring or summer of papers, such as the New York Times. campaign has used e-mail and the 2004 before beginning a more active Internet as a way to disseminate infor- campaign using TV ads. However, But according to Castillo, the mation about the campaign and in according to the New York Times, Republican outreach to minorities is recent days has actively used its cam- polls that showed Bush falling behind most evident in the administration’s paign website to respond to criticisms his Democratic rivals in a nationwide policies. Citing programs to improve by Democratic rivals. contest, and attacks by Democratic education and to increase minority candidates, prompted the Bush team to first- time home ownership, Castillo The Bush-Cheney website cur- begin their active campaign earlier said that President Bush will “cam- rently carries a video clip attacking the than planned. ■ paign on the issues.” Democratic front runner, Massachusetts Senator John Kerry, for READ MORE ABOUT IT: In addition to traditional media his ties to several special interest campaigning, the Bush team has also The official Bush-Cheney campaign groups such as drug and telecommuni- used the Internet, a campaign tool website: www.georgewbush.com cations companies. A link to this ad popularized by the campaign of for- was sent to six million Bush support- The Republican National Committee mer Vermont Governor Howard Dean. ers around the country. website: www.rnc.org And although the Bush-Cheney cam- paign has not used the Internet as a According to news reports, it

The opinions expressed in this article are those of the interviewee and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of the U.S. Government.

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