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CONGRESSIONAL PROGRAM Assessing U.S. Interests and Strategy in an Unraveling Middle East August 10–16, 2016 London, United Kingdom CONGRESSIONAL PROGRAM Assessing U.S. Interests and Strategy in an Unraveling Middle East August 10 –16, 2016 London, United Kingdom Vol. 32, No. 1 Dan Glickman Vice President, The Aspen Institute Executive Director, Congressional Program Washington, DC This project was made possible by grants from the Democracy Fund, the Ford Foundation, the William and Flora Hewlett Foundation, the Holthues Family Trust, the Henry Luce Foundation, the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation, Rockefeller Brothers Fund, the Rockefeller Foundation and Open Society Institute. Copyright © 2016 by The Aspen Institute The Aspen Institute One Dupont Circle, NW Washington, DC 20036-1133 Published in the United States of America in 2016 by The Aspen Institute All rights reserved Printed in the United States of America ISBN: 0-89843-651-6 Pub: 16/014 Table of Contents Rapporteur’s Summary ......................................................................................................................... 1 Karim Sadjadpour Burning the earth: ISIS and the threat to Britain ................................................................................... 9 Shiraz Maher Why ISIS seeks a battle with Western nations – and why it can’t be ignored .................................... 15 Shiraz Maher 5 ‘big ideas’ to guide us in the Long War against Islamic extremism ............................................... 19 General David Petraeus Anti-Muslim bigotry aids Islamist terrorists ....................................................................................... 21 General David Petraeus Saudi Arabia and Yemen: U.S. Policy Challenges in an Unstable Peninsula ..................................... 23 Sir John Jenkins Calling all Women Leaders: Join My Stealthy Freedom Campaign ................................................... 29 Masih Alinejad I governed in Iraq, and saw the lack of postwar planning first-hand .................................................. 33 Emma Sky How the ‘Green Zone’ Helped Destroy Iraq ....................................................................................... 35 Emma Sky The Carcass of a City ISIS Left Behind .............................................................................................. 37 Emma Sky The Middle East & the Global Context ............................................................................................... 41 Saad Mohseni A Global Investor’s View on the Middle East and North Africa ........................................................ 45 Pradeep Ramamurthy Has the west moved on from Sykes-Picot? ......................................................................................... 47 Peter Westmacott Conference Participants ...................................................................................................................... 49 Conference Agenda ............................................................................................................................ 51 Assessing U.S. Interests and Strategy in an Unraveling Middle East Rapporteur’s Summary Karim Sadjadpour Senior Associate, Middle East Program, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace The Aspen Institute’s annual Congressional including the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, the 2003 Program conference on Middle East policy, entitled U.S. invasion of Iraq, and the ongoing Syrian civil Assessing U.S. Interests and Strategy in an Unraveling war. This combination of orthodox religious views, Middle East, convened in London, United Kingdom, mass conflict, political repression and power vacuums, from August 10-16, 2016. Participating were 19 has fueled the rise of groups such as al-Qaeda and members of Congress along with 12 scholars. The ISIS. Failing states such as Syria, Libya, Iraq, and conferees met weeks after a failed military coup in Yemen have been an important training ground for Turkey and one year after a nuclear agreement with radicals. Iran that remains controversial. Today’s Middle East is While ISIS has been more effective than al-Qaeda grappling with failed states, civil wars, and terror in spreading terror, al-Qaeda is trying to distinguish groups such as ISIS that have enabled autocratic themselves as “moderate” in comparison to ISIS and regimes to become even more repressive, in the name may actually have longer staying power in Syria given of stability. The aim of the conference was to facilitate their socialization of the Syrian public. Whatever a frank, informative and nonpartisan discussion to emerges after the Syrian conflict is likely to be a examine these trends as well as viable U.S. strategies deeply conservative Sunni state. Whereas al-Qaeda to counter them. attempted to carry out large-scale attacks carefully planned and executed by numerous individuals over Understanding Radical Islam months and years (such as 9/11), ISIS has pioneered “micro-terrorism” such as recent attacks in San An expert on Islamic radicalism assessed the Bernardino, Orlando, Paris and Nice. Such incidents of various strands of Salafist Islam, a deeply traditional Islamist radicalism are a generational battle that will movement that interprets the Koran literally. While not be resolved in the coming years; “this is the new dogmatic, Salafism did not begin as a violent norm.” movement, but many of its adherents have been Many contended that the most effective way to radicalized over the years as a result of political events defeat ISIS’s ideology is the military defeat of ISIS, 1 just as the Soviet Union needed to collapse to deflate and stop the flow of refugees, one participant said. The its ideology and its international adherents. Everyone Russian presence in Syria makes such a no-fly zone wants to join the winning team; it must be made clear more complicated. that ISIS is the losing team. Many still believe that ISIS has momentum. In order to change that, ISIS Syria strongholds in Raqqa [Syria] and Mosul [Iraq] will need to be recaptured. A former senior U.S. military official enumerated One expert believed there was a missed opportunity five important lessons for the United States in the for the U.S. to help shape events in Syria after the Middle East, post-September 11: beginning of the country’s 2011 uprising by the failure to provide lethal aid to the then-more moderate Syrian Ungoverned spaces in the Islamic world will be opposition. “Now we’re forced to try and contain the exploited by Islamic extremists; violence in Syria rather than shape its outcome.” A Extremist-control territories explode, not implode; former senior U.S. military official concurred with this Syria is a geopolitical Chernobyl; assessment, arguing that U.S. reluctance to arm more American leadership is absolutely imperative. All moderate Syrian rebels early on ceded momentum to U.S. allies combined have less military resources more radical groups. than the U.S. That said, allies, including Islamic The expert also challenged the argument that allies, are critically important; conflict in Syria is not a direct threat to U.S. interests. A comprehensive approach is necessary, not just “The seeds of the next big attack against the U.S. are counterterrorism but also politics, reconstruction, being sewn in eastern Syria; it’s not an isolated rule of law—police, judicial, prisons—and conflict like the Congo civil war.” Social media has communications are essential; played an enormous role in helping ISIS connect with This is an ultra-endurance marathon, not a sprint. recruits in the West, though Twitter and Facebook have become much better about clamping down on The former official emphasized that while there is ISIS accounts. no “military solution” in Syria, neither is there a A former senior Western official remarked that political solution without a military context. As long Shia jihadism should also be understood and taken as Bashar Assad feels like he’s winning he won’t be seriously. Iran’s theocratic system of government— compelled to seriously negotiate as he’s achieving his known as Velayat-e Faqih or “Rule of the Juris”—is objectives without compromising. One example of similar to a caliphate. The West needs the support of what the U.S. could do militarily, short of entering the major Sunni states (such as Turkey, Saudi Arabia and conflict with “boots on the ground,” would be to other Gulf countries) to defeat Sunni radicalism and “crater” the runways of the Syrian Air Force, cannot count on them if it appears we’re not doing inhibiting their ability to barrel bomb their population. anything to counter Shia militias, Hezbollah and Iran. “As long as Assad is around the primary motivation of The expert on Islamism argued that Syrian leader many Sunnis will be jihad against him.” Bashar Assad is not a U.S. ally in the fight against At the same time, there must be a deliberate ISIS but part of the problem. “Assad cannot be strategy toward both ISIS and Assad, as the sudden, rehabilitated; He’s not the least bad option.” If Assad abrupt collapse of either will cause more problems. wins the Syria conflict it means the “Iraqifiication” of Assad is armed and funded by Iran and Russia. ISIS Syria. Assad will owe a huge debt to Iran, which will grew out of a revived al-Qaeda in Iraq. It’s imperative wield enormous influence over Syria. that the U.S. begin planning for the day after. Several experts cautioned that the sudden defeat Providing safe haven for Syrian civilians