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The Worst December for Major Stockmarkets Since 1931

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The Worst December for Major Stockmarkets Since 1931 9 January 2018 Page 1 Issue 2019/01 www.trendwatch.co.uk 9 January 2019 The worst December for major stockmarkets since 1931 IRST THINGS first. A slightly belated happy and a lot more besides. During 2018, global stockmar- Stock market sectors New Year to all our readers. I hope you had a kets haemorrhaged $12 trillion in value, the biggest F ☺ uptrends great Christmas break and that you’re eager to loss since 2008 and the second largest on record. make more money from your investing this year. US stocks had their worst Christmas Eve ever, and NONE I hear cries of “you cannot be serious!” and “pull the their worst December since the Great Depression in other one!”. But I am serious. As you read through 1931. (It’s what that pathological liar Donald Trump Stock market sectors this issue, you’ll see that the described as “a little glitch”). As downtrends TrendWatch portfolio, as well as FTSE 100 recently as October, Apple shares TAM 2 and TGF, have done re- stood proudly at more than * Gas, water & multiutilities -8 markably well. 7,750 $230, making it the most valua- Automobiles & parts -69 We won’t be sorry to see the 7,500 ble company in America at over Electricity -114 back of 2018; but 2019 is the 7,250 $1 trillion. In just three months, Equity inv. instruments -62 year when the fog of uncertainty the shares have fallen around Food & drug retailers -83 surrounding Brexit will start to 7,000 30%. Food producers -18 clear. We don’t know whether 6,750 Here are some more examples FTSE AIM -62 Mrs May will get her way and 6,500 of how bad stockmarket falls FTSE Fledgling ex Inv Co -82 force her Brexit deal through F M AM J J A SO N D J F M AM J J A SO N D J have been in 2018 (the losses re- FTSE SmallCp ex Inv Co -119 Parliament, or whether we’ll fin- lates the to period counting back ish up with a no-deal Brexit (which would probably be one year from last Friday – which therefore includes General retailers -104 the best outcome, no matter what the doomsters lead- Friday’s substantial rebound): Health care eq. & serv. -62 ing Project Fear may say). But either way, by March, Household goods -59 chances are we’ll be shot of the EU and standing on 1-year 1-year Industrial engineering -62 Market change Market change our own two feet. I suspect that our departure will Industrial transportation -160 hurt the EU far worse than it will hurt us. China (Shanghai Com.) -25.4% Singapore (Straits T) -11.7% Life assurance -68 But first, let’s turn our faces back to see the hazard- Media -63 S. Korea (Kospi) -19.2% UK (FTSE 100) -11.1% ous road investors had to travel since the last issue. Nonlife insurance -48 No question about it: December was a truly awful Hong Kong (Hang Seng) -16.2% US (S&P 500) -7.2% Oil eq. & services -38 month – not just for stocks but for almost all financial Real estate inv. & serv. -121 assets (cocoa was one of the few exceptions, due to ad- Japan (Nikkei 225) -12.6% US (Nasdaq) -5.1% verse weather in West Africa). Tobacco -76 Let’s take the Footsie as an example. If you assume Europe (FTSE Eurofirst) -12.5% India (Sensex) +5.6% Travel & Leisure -102 that shares will always rise in the long term… think Canada (S&P/TSX) -12.2% Brazil (São Paulo) +17.2% again. The Footsie actually started the year promising- ly, at an all-time high of around 7,780. Then almost Trend analysis is our raison d’etre, so what does our immediately, it plunged to 6,922 in March. Then it analysis tell us about the state of the London stock- surged back up to another all-time high of 7,877 in market? Is the worst now over? May. But it was downhill all the way from there. By As ever, the answer to this question is encapsulated last Friday the benchmark had sank to 6,,837… that’s in our TrendWatch Barometer (bottom left). lower than it was in early 2000. You can see that things were pretty grim five weeks It was much the same story around the world, with ago; but there has been a further deterioration since nearly all stockmarkets losing all the gains for the year then. There is an even lower percentage of shares in TrendWatch uptrend – just 2.7% in the case of the Official list – Barometer and even higher percentage of shares in downtrend – London-listed shares as much as 38.3% in the case of AIM shares. % of total no. of % change Can it get any worse? Certainly it could. The number 30-Nov 04-Jan of shares in uptrend cannot increase until the number shares monitored on fortnight of shares in downtrend starts to reduce. That isn’t OFFICIAL LIST: happening yet. Uptrends 7.90% 2.71% -5.19% However, looking at share price charts at random, Indeterminate 67.24% 66.54% -0.70% there are some hints that things are looking up. Some Downtrends 24.86% 30.75% +5.89% shares seemed to be off the bottom and not that far off returning to uptrend. Dead cat bounce? Maybe. But AIM-LISTED: history teaches us that long-term bear markets are ra- Uptrends 6.60% 4.22% -2.38% re, and that the faster markets fall, the sooner they Indeterminate 55.62% 57.49% +1.87% bottom out and the stronger the rebound. Downtrends 37.78% 38.29% +0.51% I’m hopeful that better times are just around the corner, once the Brexit mists clear. ❑ INVESTMENT TRUSTS: Uptrends 4.08% 3.13% -0.95% SHARE SELECTIONS IN THIS ISSUE Indeterminate 78.99% 62.07% -16.92% Downtrends 16.93% 34.80% +17.87% Avation (AVAP) 3 EXCHANGE TRADED FUNDS: Marshalls (MSLH) 4 Uptrends 6.98% 10.59% +3.61% Morses Club (MCL) 5 Indeterminate 81.97% 52.94% -29.03% Downtrends 11.05% 36.47% +25.42% Chaarat Resources (CGH) 6 9 January 2018 Page 2 Despite market mayhem, our portfolio still outperforms The TrendWatch portfolio: Valuation as at 7 January 2019 Date Buy price Price now gain/ F/c gross Mkt. gain/ Outperf. STOP- Share (and EPIC code) bought (p) * (p) loss (%) yield (%) loss (%) (%) LOSS ** 4imprint (FOUR) 13/09/18 2070.00 1885.00 -8.9 3.1 -8.9 -0.1 1615 AFH Financial Group (AFHP) AIM 20/08/15 161.50 343.00 112.4 2.5 4.2 103.9 332 Arena Events Group (ARE) AIM 21/06/18 65.00 58.00 -10.8 4.3 -12.1 1.6 56 B.P. Marsh & Partners (BPM) AIM 21/06/18 289.00 283.00 -2.1 1.7 -12.1 11.5 250 BATM Advanced Comm. (BVC) 29/03/18 27.65 48.80 76.5 - -6.0 87.8 39 Bioventix (BVXP) 06/12/18 3215.00 3075.00 -4.4 2.6 -0.1 -4.3 2656 Cake Box Holdings (CBOX) 06/12/18 174.00 161.00 -7.5 0.0 -0.1 -7.4 143 CentralNic Group (CNIC) 08/11/18 53.50 52.00 -2.8 - -6.6 4.0 43 Clarke (T) (CTO) 08/01/18 85.70 87.00 1.5 4.5 -13.6 17.5 73 Colefax Group (CFX) AIM 18/07/13 252.50 540.00 113.9 1.0 3.6 106.5 480 Creightons (CRL) 06/12/18 31.00 30.50 -1.6 1.3 -0.1 -1.5 24 Future (FUTR) 06/12/18 538.00 469.00 -12.8 0.2 -0.1 -12.7 451 Georgia Capital (CGEO) 12/10/18 1157.80 1012.00 -12.6 - -4.8 -8.2 944 Gordon Dadds Group (GOR) AIM 19/07/18 176.50 189.00 7.1 4.4 -13.4 23.6 152 John Laing Group (JLG) 16/08/18 287.20 332.00 15.6 2.9 -11.8 31.1 267 Oxford Metrics (OMG) AIM 09/11/17 62.25 71.50 14.9 2.5 -11.0 29.0 63 Patisserie Holdings (CAKE) AIM 25/05/17 365.75 429.50 17.4 - -11.3 32.4 390 Petra Diamonds (PDL) 08/11/18 42.70 42.90 0.5 - -6.6 7.5 34 President Energy (PPC) 06/12/18 9.75 9.15 -6.2 - -0.1 -6.1 8 Proactis Holdings (PHD) AIM 08/11/18 139.50 142.00 1.8 1.1 -6.6 8.9 114 RWS Holdings (RWS) AIM 19/07/18 448.50 458.50 2.2 1.9 -13.4 18.0 409 Serica Energy (SQZ) AIM 08/11/18 131.50 121.00 -8.0 - -6.6 -1.5 106 Sigma Capital Group (SGM) AIM 12/10/18 132.50 132.50 0.0 - -4.8 5.0 106 Speedy Hire (SDY) 12/10/18 63.80 59.10 -7.4 3.5 -4.8 -2.7 49 Synectics (SNX) AIM 08/11/18 217.00 197.50 -9.0 3.0 -6.6 -2.6 173 Venture Life (VLG) AIM 16/08/18 48.00 44.00 -8.3 - -11.8 3.9 40 VP (VP.) 07/12/17 900.00 940.00 4.4 3.4 -9.1 15.0 938 Zegona Communications (ZEG) 06/12/18 123.50 119.00 -3.6 3.3 -0.1 -3.6 101 Averaged gains (%): 9.4 2.5 -6.2 16.6 TrendWatch portfolio's percentage profit: 9.37% Change since last full TW: -2.85% Market's percentage profit (tracker fund)†: -6.23% TrendWatch has outperformed market by: 16.63% * Buy price is the price as at close of business on the Thursday following publication of the recommendation.
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