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Coercive Western Energy Security Strategies: 'Resource Wars' As A 91geo08.qxd 20/01/2004 14:50 Page 187 Coercive Western Energy Security Strategies: Resource Wars as a New Threat to Global Security SUSANNE PETERS Introduction ollowing the end of the Cold War, there was a short period of time when it looked as if the world was entering an era of political stability, enduring peace, and the absence of conflicts. It was at this time that rancis ukuyama wrote his famous book The End of History and the Last Man, which announced that the global spread of capitalism and liberal democracy would bring global prosperity and peace, even to the Third World. It did not take long for this dream to be shattered: a new wave of ethnic conflicts with unprecedented dimension and geographical spread brought home the message that domestic conflict would proliferate rather than decline in the post-Cold War era. Moreover, the 1991 Gulf War, in which Western powers were directly involved, and the 2003 western coalitions war against Iraq made it more than evident that interstate war is not a relic of the pre- globalization age. In several of these wars of the 1990s, natural resources could even appear as the main motive,1 thus compelling the realization that the notion of resource wars as a threat to global security again must be given attention. In the following, I argue that in the future we will be confronted with new resource wars in the international system, which will be precipitated by two developments: first, an anticipated oil supply crisis as a first consequence of the decline of global oil reserves and second, the uneven distribution of these declining resources along the NorthSouth axis. It is further argued that in response to these developments, the coercive character of traditional US strategies for securing energy will intensify, thus bearing the potential to escalate into further armed conflicts. It follows from this discussion that there are only two sustainable strategies for conflict prevention: first, the reduction of the dependency on fossil fuels by developing alternative and renewable energy, and second, the pursuit of a global policy based on more equitable and controlled energy distribution. In the beginning it is demonstrated that there are limits in international relations theory to explain interstate resource wars. These limitations are 91geo08.qxd 20/01/2004 14:50 Page 188 188 THE GEOPOLITICS O RESOURCE WARS apparent in the field of international relations as well as subfields that deal explicitly with environmental conflicts. Two further exacerbating factors for resource conflicts are discussed: first, shortages in oil production anticipated to set in after 2010, and second, the NorthSouth dimension of these conflicts in view of the concentration of the remaining resources in developing countries and the high energy consumption of the developed countries. The last section of the article compares EU and US strategies of energy supply security. Explaining Resource Wars: Theoretical Limitations of International Relations and its Subfields The phenomenon of resource wars and the connection between resource scarcity and violent conflict has been long acknowledged and researched in international relations. In 1986, Arthur Westing presented a list of 12 wars and skirmishes of the twentieth century, ranging from world wars to secession, decolonization and civil wars. All were triggered by a dispute over access to renewable and non-renewable sources, real or even imaginary (as, for example, in the alklands/Malvinas case, in which the existence of offshore oil was assumed rather than proven2). Accordingly, Westing concluded: Global deficiencies and degradation of natural resources, both renewable and non-renewable, coupled with the uneven distribution of these raw materials, can lead to unlikely and thus unstable alliances, to national rivalries, and, of course, to war.3 In particular, the two oil crises of the 1970s triggered concern and research on the prospects of conflicts caused by resource scarcity and oil supply crisis. Several studies appeared at that time which put the oil crisis in the context of the NorthSouth conflict and the Souths demands for a New International Economic Order. It was argued that the western states had to acknowledge the reality of their new dependency on the developing worlds commodities and resources, and prospects were discussed for armed encounters between North and South in terms of the necessity of resource management and the oil weapon.4 Since then, western foreign affairs offices also began to treat disruptions of energy supplies as a national security issue to be counteracted by military strategy.5 In the early 1980s after the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, the term resource wars emerged in the US to indicate the perceived threat that the Soviet Union was denying the US access to Middle Eastern oil and African minerals.6 But interest in NorthSouth studies as well as research on the prospect of interstate resource wars faded in the course of the 1980s,7 for three 91geo08.qxd 20/01/2004 14:50 Page 189 RESOURCE WARS AS A NEW THREAT TO GLOBAL SECURITY 189 reasons: first, after the shock of the two oil crises of the 1970s, the western states successfully reduced their dependency on the Middle Eastern states by diversifying their suppliers; second, globalization has taken the bite out of the NorthSouth conflict by smoothing the deep division between some developing and developed states; therefore, conflicts along the NorthSouth axis seemed less likely; and third, with the advance of neo-liberal ideas and the globalization debate, an optimistic world view of economics prevailed with its belief that the limitless power of technology could compensate for any kind of resource scarcity that western societies might confront, including fossil fuel scarcity. As a result of these developments, it has not yet been sufficiently understood that the first major interstate war of the post-Cold War era, the 1991 Gulf War, which was fought for the control of the regions oil, does not represent an aberration to the international system as being caused by a very specific constellation, but instead hints at the evolution of a new pattern of war.8 It has yet to be seen to what extent the 2003 western coalitions occupation of Iraq will be interpreted as a further example of this new threat to global security. However, there are limits in international relations subfields on the environment as well as in international relations theories to explain interstate resource wars, because first, the theories are concerned with resources of economic value9 and thus fail to consider the aspect of resource scarcity; second, the theories do not offer concepts of interstate conflict or do not focus on conflict at all; and third, they are incapable of explaining how to avoid conflicts of this sort. The international relations subfield of environmental conflict and security10 reflects the developments in the international system that led to a decline in interest in interstate wars over non-renewable resources. Since oil, the most salient of the non-renewable resources, seemed (according to its low price) to exist in abundance, interstate conflicts over oil seemed very unlikely. The research of two of the subfields exponents reflects this: Homer Dixons claim that renewables are crucially different from non- renewables11 is based on the assumption that there exists an oversupply of non-renewables. He agrees with Repettos view that (i)n economic terms, exhaustible resources have not become significantly more scarce over the past century and, by some measures, most have become less scarce.12 Deudneys optimistic view, that the prospect of resource wars is very slim, is based on his unchallenged confidence in the achievements of technology for substituting non-renewable resources.13 His optimism reflects the ideas of neo-liberal institutionalism and globalization when he argues that the prevalence of global capitalism and the intensification of international trade will enhance the efficiency of resource use, make violent conflicts more costly, and reduce incentives for territorial conquest. 91geo08.qxd 20/01/2004 14:50 Page 190 190 THE GEOPOLITICS O RESOURCE WARS In international relations theories, the classical domain for interstate wars has been realism and its reinterpretation in the form of structural or neo-realism. With its assumption that conflict and insecurity are constant features of the international system, one would expect it to be the most adequate theory to explain resource wars. However, realism as well as neo-realism fail to offer a powerful analytical framework for conflict prevention because, though the theories expect and explain conflict, their determinism for structure renders them incapable of accounting for change.14 Moreover, with its tenet derived from realism that states have to pursue their national interest if necessary at the expense of morality neo- realism can be used to justify military interventions for the sake of energy security in lieu of proposing how to avoid them. Also, at the end of the 1980s, theories with a focus on the role of economics in international relations seemed more apt to explain the new reality of an intensified globalization process, which boosted theories that belong to the school of neo-liberalism, such as neo-liberal institutionalism. Neo-liberalism assumes that its global spread yields greater interdependency among states and makes their borders more permeable, thus fostering international co- operation and world peace. In this view,
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