A Forecast Procedure for Dry Thunderstorms
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Fire Weather Area Forecast Matrices User’S Guide to Decoding the AFW
Fire Weather Area Forecast Matrices User’s Guide to Decoding the AFW What are the Area Forecast Matrices? The Area Forecast Matrices (AFW) is a table that displays the forecasted weather parameters in 3, 6 and 12 hour intervals out to 7 days in the future. Below is a sample AFW, along with a description of each parameter’s code (blue colored numbers). (1) NCZ510-082100- EASTERN POLK- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...COLUMBUS 939 AM EST THU DEC 8 2011 (2) DATE THU 12/08/11 FRI 12/09/11 SAT 12/10/11 UTC 3HRLY 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 EST 3HRLY 04 07 10 13 16 19 22 01 04 07 10 13 16 19 22 01 04 07 10 13 16 19 (3) MAX/MIN 51 30 54 32 52 (4) TEMP 39 49 51 41 36 33 32 31 42 51 52 44 39 36 33 32 41 49 50 41 (5) DEWPT 24 21 20 23 26 28 28 26 26 25 25 28 28 26 26 26 26 26 25 25 (6) MIN/MAX RH 29 93 34 78 37 (7) RH 55 32 29 47 67 82 86 79 52 36 35 52 65 68 73 78 53 40 37 51 (8) WIND DIR NW S S SE NE NW NW N NW S S W NW NW NW NW N N N N (9) WIND DIR DEG 33 16 18 12 02 33 31 33 32 19 20 25 33 32 32 32 34 35 35 35 (10) WIND SPD 5 4 5 2 3 0 0 1 2 4 3 2 3 5 5 6 8 8 6 5 (11) CLOUDS CL CL CL FW FW SC SC SC SC SC SC SC SC SC SC SC FW FW FW FW (12) CLOUDS(%) 0 2 1 10 25 34 35 35 33 31 34 37 40 43 37 33 24 15 12 9 (13) VSBY 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 (14) POP 12HR 0 0 5 10 10 (15) QPF 12HR 0 0 0 0 0 (16) LAL 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 (17) HAINES 5 4 4 5 5 5 4 4 5 (18) DSI 1 2 2 (19) MIX HGT 2900 1500 300 3000 2900 400 600 4200 4100 (20) T WIND DIR S NE N SW SW NW NW NW N (21) T WIND SPD 5 3 2 6 9 3 8 13 14 (22) ADI 27 2 5 44 51 5 17 -
Taking the Guesswork out of Lightning-Caused Wildfire Marjie Brown US Forest Service, [email protected]
University of Nebraska - Lincoln DigitalCommons@University of Nebraska - Lincoln JFSP Briefs U.S. Joint Fire Science Program 2008 Taking the Guesswork Out of Lightning-caused Wildfire Marjie Brown US Forest Service, [email protected] Follow this and additional works at: http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/jfspbriefs Part of the Forest Biology Commons, Forest Management Commons, Other Forestry and Forest Sciences Commons, and the Wood Science and Pulp, Paper Technology Commons Brown, Marjie, "Taking the Guesswork Out of Lightning-caused Wildfire" (2008). JFSP Briefs. 23. http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/jfspbriefs/23 This Article is brought to you for free and open access by the U.S. Joint Fire Science Program at DigitalCommons@University of Nebraska - Lincoln. It has been accepted for inclusion in JFSP Briefs by an authorized administrator of DigitalCommons@University of Nebraska - Lincoln. Lightning and fi re smoke. Taking the Guesswork Out of Lightning-caused Wildfi re Summary Lightning is a natural source of wildfi re ignitions and causes a substantial portion of large wildfi res across the globe. Simple predictions of lightning activity don’t accurately determine fi re ignition potential because fuel conditions must be considered in addition to the fact that most lightning is accompanied by signifi cant rain. Fire operations managers need improved tools for prediction of widespread dry thunderstorms, which are those that occur without signifi cant rainfall reaching the ground. It is these dry storms that generate lightning most likely to result in multiple fi re ignitions, often in remote areas. In previous work the researchers developed a formula that estimates the potential for cloud- to-ground lightning when dry thunderstorms are expected. -
Introduction to Wildland Fire Behavior (S-190) Resources Table of Contents
Introduction to Wildland Fire Behavior (S-190) Resources Table of Contents Web Resources ..............................................................................................................................2 Incident Response Pocket Guide (IRPG).....................................................................................3 Glossary .....................................................................................................................................122 Page 1 Web Resources Fireline Handbook http://www.nwcg.gov/pms/pubs/410-1/410-1.pdf Incident Response Pocket Guide http://www.nwcg.gov/pms/pubs/nfes1077/nfes1077.pdf Page 2 Incident Response Pocket Guide A Publication of the National Wildfire Coordinating Group Sponsored by Incident Operations Standards Working Team as a subset to PMS 410-1 Fireline Handbook JANUARY 2006 PMS 461 NFES 1077 Additional copies of this publication may be ordered from: National Interagency Fire Center, ATTN: Great Basin Cache Supply Office, 3833 South Development Avenue, Boise, Idaho 83705. Order NFES #1077 Table of Contents Table of Contents ............................................................... i Operational Leadership ....................................................v Communication Responsibilities ................................... ix Human Factors Barriers to Situation Awareness and Decision-Making ....................................................x GREEN - OPERATIONAL Risk Management Process ...........................................1 Look Up, Down and Around -
Thunderstorm Terminology
Thunderstorm Terminology Thunderstorm — Updraft — Downdraft Cold front — Cumulonimbus cloud Latent heat — Isolated thunderstorms Cloudburst — Precipitation — Hail Thunderstorm lightning, thunder, rain, and dense clouds; may include heavy rain, hail, and strong winds Updraft an upward flow of air Downdraft a downward flow of air Cold front leading edge of a mass of heavy, colder air that is advancing Cumulonimbus giant clouds piled on top of each other; top cloud spreads out in the shape of an anvil heat released when water vapor condenses; is Latent heat the main driving energy of thunderstorms Isolated short-lived storms with light winds; usually do thunderstorms not produce violent weather on the ground Cloudburst sudden and short-lived heavy rainfall that usually occurs in a small area any moisture that falls from clouds and Precipitation reaches the ground Hail balls of ice about .2 inch (5 mm) to 6 inches (15 cm) that sometimes accompany storms WriteBonnieRose.com 1 Thunderstorm Terminology Dry thunderstorm — Thunder — Lightning Bead lightning — Ball lightning — Microburst Multiple-cell storms — Supercell Mesocyclone — Tornado Dry thunderstorm a storm where all raindrops evaporate while falling and none reach the ground sound heard when lightning heats the air so Thunder strongly and quickly it produces shock waves Lightning discharge of electricity after electric charges on particles in clouds grow large enough Bead lightning infrequent; looks like a string of bright spots; also called chain lightning Ball lightning rare; looks -
Modelling Dry Thunderstorm Environment During a Wildfire Episode in Portugal
EGU2020-10796, updated on 25 Sep 2021 https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-10796 EGU General Assembly 2020 © Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License. Modelling dry thunderstorm environment during a wildfire episode in Portugal Flavio T. Couto1, Maksim Iakunin1, Rui Salgado1, Paulo Pinto2, Tânia Viegas2, and Jean-Pierre Pinty3 1University of Évora, Institute of Earth Sciences – University of Évora Pole, Évora, Portugal ([email protected]) 2Instituto Português do Mar e da Atmosfera (IPMA), Lisbon, Portugal 3Laboratoire d’Aérologie, Université de Toulouse, Toulouse, France Under future climate uncertainties, a better understanding of wildfires is necessary both from physical and operational points of view, which are the goals of the CILIFO (Centro Ibérico para la Investigacion y Lucha contra Incendios Forestales) Interreg POCTEP project. Among several sources of fire ignition, lightnings are the main natural source of wildfires and an important contributor to burned areas in many regions. In 2017, devastating forest fires were reported in Portugal. The fires near Pedrógão Grande created a huge wall of flames, killing at least 60 people. The goal of this study is to discuss the atmospheric conditions that were supportive of lightning flashes to cause a fire during this event, as well as to check the possibility to correctly diagnose cloud-to-ground flashes using high resolution simulations with the non-hydrostatic atmospheric Meso-NH model. A set of meteorological data was used to validate the model results and to describe the prevailing atmospheric environment during the afternoon of 17th June 2017 over central Portugal. -
SW Fire Weather Annual Operating Plan
SOUTHWEST AREA FIRE WEATHER ANNUAL OPERATING PLAN 2018 Arizona New Mexico West Texas Oklahoma Panhandle 2018 SOUTHWEST AREA FIRE WEATHER ANNUAL OPERATING PLAN SECTION PAGE I. INTRODUCTION 1 II. SIGNIFICANT CHANGES SINCE PREVIOUS PLAN 1 III. SERVICE AREAS AND ORGANIZATIONAL DIRECTORIES 2 IV. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SERVICES AND RESPONSIBILITIES 2 A. Basic Services 2 1. Core Forecast Grids and Web-Based Fire Weather Decision Support 2 2. Fire Weather Watches and Red Flag Warnings (RFW) 2 3. Spot Forecasts 5 4. Fire Weather Planning Forecasts (FWF) 7 5. NFDRS 8 6. Fire Weather Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) 9 7. Interagency Participation 9 B. Special Services 9 C. Forecaster Training 9 D. Individual NWS Forecast Office Information 10 1. Northwest Arizona – Las Vegas, NV 10 2. Northern Arizona – Flagstaff, AZ 10 3. Southeast Arizona – Tucson, AZ 10 4. Southwest and South-Central Arizona – Phoenix, AZ 10 5. Northern and Central New Mexico – Albuquerque, NM 10 6. Southwest/South-Central New Mexico and Far West Texas – El Paso, TX 10 7. Southeast New Mexico and Southwest Texas – Midland, TX 10 8. West-Central Texas – Lubbock, TX 10 9. Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles – Amarillo, TX 10 V. WILDLAND FIRE AGENCY SERVICES AND RESPONSIBILITIES 11 A. Operational Support and Predictive Services 11 B. Program Management 12 C. Monitoring, Feedback and Improvement 12 D. Technology Transfer 12 E. Agency Computer Systems 12 F. WIMS ID’s for NFDRS Stations 12 G. Fire Weather Observations 13 H. Local Fire Management Liaisons & Southwest Area Decision Support Committee___14 Southwest Area Fire Weather Annual Operating Plan Table of Contents VI. -
Midlevel Ventilation's Constraint on Tropical Cyclone Intensity Brian
Midlevel Ventilation’s Constraint on Tropical Cyclone Intensity by Brian Hong-An Tang B.S. Atmospheric Science, University of California Los Angeles, 2004 B.S. Applied Mathematics, University of California Los Angeles, 2004 Submitted to the Department of Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Atmospheric Science at the MASSACHUSETTS INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY September 2010 c Massachusetts Institute of Technology 2010. All rights reserved. Author.............................................. ................ Department of Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences June 14, 2010 Certified by.......................................... ................ Kerry A. Emanuel Breene M. Kerr Professor of Atmospheric Science Director, Program in Atmospheres, Oceans and Climate Thesis Supervisor Accepted by.......................................... ............... Maria Zuber Earle Griswold Professor of Geophysics and Planetary Science Head, Department of Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences 2 Midlevel Ventilation’s Constraint on Tropical Cyclone Intensity by Brian Hong-An Tang Submitted to the Department of Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences on June 14, 2010, in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Atmospheric Science Abstract Midlevel ventilation, or the flux of low-entropy air into the inner core of a tropical cyclone (TC), is a hypothesized mechanism by which environmental vertical wind shear can constrain a TC’s intensity. An idealized framework is developed to assess how ventilation affects TC intensity via two pathways: downdrafts outside the eyewall and eddy fluxes directly into the eyewall. Three key aspects are found: ventilation has a detrimental effect on TC intensity by decreasing the maximum steady state intensity, imposing a minimum intensity below which a TC will unconditionally decay, and providing an upper ventilation bound beyond which no steady TC can exist. -
FIRE DANGER INDICES: CURRENT LIMITATIONS and a PATHWAY to BETTER INDICES Setting the Agenda for Fire Danger Policy and Research Into Operations
FIRE DANGER INDICES: CURRENT LIMITATIONS AND A PATHWAY TO BETTER INDICES Setting the agenda for fire danger policy and research into operations Claire S Yeo1, Jeffrey D Kepert123 and Robin Hicks1 1Bureau of Meteorology 2Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research 3Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC FIRE DANGER INDICES: CURRENT LIMITATIONS AND A PATHWAY TO BETTER INDICES | Report No. 2014.007 Version Release history Date 1.0 Initial release of document 16/10/2014 1.1 Executive Summary updated and 26/11/2015 editorial clarifications in response to technical comments received. © Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC 2015 No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form without the prior written permission from the copyright owner, except under the conditions permitted under the Australian Copyright Act 1968 and subsequent amendments. Disclaimer: This material was produced with funding provided by the Attorney-General's Department through the National Emergency Management program. The Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC, the Attorney-General's Department and the Australian Government make no representations about the suitability of the information contained in this document or any material related to this document for any purpose. The document is provided 'as is' without warranty of any kind to the extent permitted by law. The Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC, the Attorney-General's Department and the Australian Government hereby disclaim all warranties and conditions with regard to this -
0Il in the Gulf 0F St. Lawrence: Facts, Myths And
GULF 101 OIL IN THE GULF OF ST. LAWRENCE: FACTS, MYTHS AND FUTURE OUTLOOK June 2014 GULF 101 OIL IN THE GULF OF ST. LAWRENCE: FACTS, MYTHS AND FUTURE OUTLOOK June 2014 St. Lawrence Coalition AuTHORS: Sylvain Archambault, Biologist, M. Sc., Canadian Parks and Wilderness Society (CPAWS) Quebec; Danielle Giroux, LL.B., M.Sc., Attention FragÎles; and Jean-Patrick Toussaint, Biologist, Ph.D., David Suzuki Foundation ADVISORY COMMITTEE: David Suzuki Foundation, Canadian Parks and Wilderness Society (CPAWS) Quebec, Nature Québec, Attention FragÎles Cover photos : Nelson Boisvert, Luc Fontaine and Sylvain Archambault ISBN 978-1-897375-66-2 / digital version 978-1-897375-67-9 Citation: St. Lawrence Coalition. 2014. Gulf 101 – Oil in the Gulf of St. Lawrence: Facts, Myths and Future Outlook. St. Lawrence Coalition. 78 pp. This report is available, in English and French, at: www.coalitionsaintlaurent.ca Contents PHOTO: DOminic COURNOYER / WIKimedIA COMMOns Acknowledgements ..........................................................................................................................6 Acronyms .....................................................................................................................................7 Foreword .....................................................................................................................................8 SUMMARY .............................................................................................................................. 9 SECTION 1 INTRODUCTION ......................................................................................................14 -
Fire Weather Services Directive
Department of Commerce • National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration • National Weather Service NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INSTRUCTION 10-401 JUNE 21, 2021 Operations and Services Products and Services to Support Fire, NWSPD 10-4 FIRE WEATHER SERVICES PRODUCT SPECIFICATION NOTICE: This publication is available at: http://www.nws.noaa.gov/directives/. OPR: W/AFS21 (H. Hockenberry) Certified by: W/AFS21 (M. Hawkins) Type of Issuance: Routine SUMMARY OF REVISIONS: This directive supersedes NWSI 10-401, “Fire Weather Services Product Specification,” dated December 29, 2017. The following revisions were made to this instruction: 1. Edited section 3.2.2 to include guidance on issuing language for exceptional or particularly dangerous Red Flag Warnings. 2. Edited sections 6.1and 6.4 to describe implementation of the seven day NFDRS forecasts. 3. Added a Section 12 to provide guidance for non-weather event messaging for fires. 4. Updated Section 10 for operational implementation of SPC Day 3-8 product content. Digitally signed by STERN.ANDREW. STERN.ANDREW.DAVID.138292 AVID.1382920348 0348 Date: 2021.06.07 14:37:41 -04'00' June 7, 2021 Andrew D. Stern Date Director Analyze, Forecast and Support Office NWSI 10-401 JUNE 21, 2021 Fire Weather Services Product Specification Table of Contents: Page 1. Introduction. 5 2. Digital Forecasts and Services 6 3. Fire Weather Watch/Red Flag Warning 6 3.1 Mission Connection. 6 3.2 Issuance Guidelines. 6 3.2.1 Creation Software 6 3.2.2 Issuance Criteria 6 3.2.2.1 Fire Weather Watch 7 3.2.2.2 Red Flag Warning. 7 3.2.3 Issuance Time. -
Baroclinic and Barotropic Instabilities in Planetary Atmospheres: Energetics, Equilibration and Adjustment
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 27, 147–173, 2020 https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-27-147-2020 © Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License. Baroclinic and barotropic instabilities in planetary atmospheres: energetics, equilibration and adjustment Peter Read1,z, Daniel Kennedy2,1, Neil Lewis1, Hélène Scolan3,1, Fachreddin Tabataba-Vakili4,1, Yixiong Wang1, Susie Wright1, and Roland Young5,1 1Clarendon Laboratory, Department of Physics, University of Oxford, Parks Road, Oxford, OX1 3PU, UK 2Max-Planck-Institut für Plasmaphysik, Greifswald, Germany 3Laboratoire de Mécanique des Fluides et d’Acoustique, Université de Lyon, France 4Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, California, USA 5Department of Physics & National Space Science and Technology Center, United Arab Emirates University, Al Ain, United Arab Emirates zInvited contribution by Peter Read, recipient of the EGU Lewis Fry Richardson Medal 2016. Correspondence: Peter Read ([email protected]) Received: 3 October 2019 – Discussion started: 15 October 2019 Revised: 14 February 2020 – Accepted: 26 February 2020 – Published: 3 April 2020 Abstract. Baroclinic and barotropic instabilities are well stabilities may efficiently mix potential vorticity to result in known as the mechanisms responsible for the production of a flow configuration that is found to approach a marginally the dominant energy-containing eddies in the atmospheres of unstable state with respect to Arnol’d’s second stability theo- Earth and several other planets, as well as Earth’s oceans. rem. We discuss the implications of these findings and iden- Here we consider insights provided by both linear and non- tify some outstanding open questions. linear instability theories into the conditions under which such instabilities may occur, with reference to forced and dissipative flows obtainable in the laboratory, in simplified numerical atmospheric circulation models and in the plan- 1 Introduction ets of our solar system. -
Spatial, Temporal and Electrical Characteristics of Lightning in Reported Lightning-Initiated Wildfire Events
fire Article Spatial, Temporal and Electrical Characteristics of Lightning in Reported Lightning-Initiated Wildfire Events Christopher J. Schultz 1,*, Nicholas J. Nauslar 2 , J. Brent Wachter 3, Christopher R. Hain 1 and Jordan R. Bell 4 1 NASA George C. Marshall Space Flight Center, Huntsville, AL 35812, USA; [email protected] 2 NOAA/NWS/NCEP Storm Prediction Center, Norman, OK 73072, USA; [email protected] 3 United States Forest Service, Redding, CA 96002, USA; [email protected] 4 Earth System Science Center, University of Alabama in Huntsville, Huntsville, AL 35805, USA; [email protected] * Correspondence: [email protected] Received: 6 March 2019; Accepted: 30 March 2019; Published: 3 April 2019 Abstract: Analysis was performed to determine whether a lightning flash could be associated with every reported lightning-initiated wildfire that grew to at least 4 km2. In total, 905 lightning-initiated wildfires within the Continental United States (CONUS) between 2012 and 2015 were analyzed. Fixed and fire radius search methods showed that 81–88% of wildfires had a corresponding lightning flash within a 14 day period prior to the report date. The two methods showed that 52–60% of lightning-initiated wildfires were reported on the same day as the closest lightning flash. The fire radius method indicated the most promising spatial results, where the median distance between the closest lightning and the wildfire start location was 0.83 km, followed by a 75th percentile of 1.6 km and a 95th percentile of 5.86 km. Ninety percent of the closest lightning flashes to wildfires were negative polarity.