Article Development of the Korean Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment Tool (VESTAP) —Centered on Health Vulnerability to Heat Waves Kwan-Young Oh 1, Moung-Jin Lee 1,* and Seong-Woo Jeon 2,* 1 Center for Environmental Assessment Monitoring, Korea Environment Institute (KEI); 370 Sicheong-daero, Sejong 30147, Korea; [email protected] 2 Divison of Environmental Science & Ecological Engineering, Korea University, 145 Anam-ro, Seongbuk- gu, Seoul 02841, Korea * Correspondence: [email protected] (M.-J.L.); [email protected] (S.-W.J.); Tel.: +82-44-415-7314 (M.-J.L.); +82-2-3290-3043 (S.-W.J.) Received: 2 May 2017; Accepted: 19 June 2017; Published: 24 June 2017 Abstract: The purpose of this study was to develop a Korean climate change vulnerability assessment tool, the Vulnerability Assessment Tool to build Climate Change Adaptation Plan (VESTAP). Based on Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change methodology, VESTAP can be used to evaluate Korea’s vulnerability to major climate impacts (including 32 conditions in 8 categories). VESTAP is based on RCP 4.5/8.5 scenarios and can provide evaluation results in 10-year intervals from the 2010s to 2040s. In addition, this paper presents the results of a case study using VESTAP for targeted assessment of health vulnerability to heat waves under the RCP 8.5 scenario for the 2040s. Through vulnerability assessment at the province level in South Korea, Daegu Metropolitan City was identified as the most vulnerable region. The municipality and submunicipality levels of Daegu were also assessed in separate stages. The results indicated that Pyeongni 3-Dong in Seo-Gu was most vulnerable. Through comprehensive analysis of the results, the climate exposure index was identified as the greatest contributor to health vulnerability in Korea. Regional differences in climate exposure can be moderated by social investment in improving sensitivity and adaptive capacity. This study is significant in presenting a quantitative assessment of vulnerability to climate change by the administrative unit in South Korea. The results of this study are expected to contribute to the efficient development and implementation of climate change adaptation policies in South Korea. Keywords: adaptive capacity; climate change; health vulnerability; heat wave; IPCC AR4; vulnerability assessment 1. Introduction Since the 1970s, the world has achieved economic growth through rapid industrialization. In consequence of the rapid industrialization, the world has faced various environmental issues including environmental degradation. Then, in the 1990s, many countries set sustainability as a higher priority in order to avoid various environmental issues. Climate change has emerged as one of the most pressing environmental issues facing the world today [1]. According to the Fifth Assessment Report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) [2], it is predicted that the average temperature of the earth will increase by 3.7 °C and sea level will rise by 63 cm before the end of this century unless emissions are reduced [2]. Climate change may have far-reaching consequences across human societies, affecting states, communities, and industries; thus, the assessment of vulnerability and adaptation to climate change is necessary to minimize the potential damage caused by climate change and to enhance sustainable development [3,4]. Sustainability 2017, 9, 1103; doi:10.3390/su9071103 www.mdpi.com/journal/sustainability Sustainability 2017, 9, 1103 2 of 15 The concept of vulnerability to climate change has been defined by the IPCC [3], and this definition is used most commonly [5]. Houghton [6] defined vulnerability to climate change as the degree to which a system is susceptible to and unable to cope with the adverse effects of climate change. Moss [7] defined the concept narrowly and conducted a vulnerability assessment as a function of biophysical vulnerability and socio-economic adaptive capacity; the Vulnerability- Resilience Indicator Prototype model (VRIP model) was applied, which uses sensitivity and adaptive capacity indices. Brooks [8] conducted a study to establish indices for vulnerability assessment by country and suggested indices of vulnerability and adaptive capacity at the country level. Later, in its Fourth Assessment Report [1], the IPCC further elaborated on the concept of assessing vulnerability to climate change using a weighted function of climate exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. Climate exposure here refers to climate stimuli that affect systems, and sensitivity indicates a system that responds sensitively to climate stimuli. Adaptive capacity is the ability of a system to adjust to climate stimuli [9]. These concepts, however, are so complex that it is difficult to directly calculate them into indices; thus, they are estimated indirectly via proxy variables. The proxy variables used in vulnerability assessment differ among countries and even regions within a country; therefore, it is necessary to conduct research to select vulnerability assessment conditions that reflect the characteristics of each country and region [10]. Vulnerability assessment at the country level plays a crucial role in establishing national climate change adaptation policies, as policy implementation and priority can be determined through a relative vulnerability assessment that takes into account the capacity of the target region [11,12]. The Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI) developed a Vulnerability Assessment Tool suited to the characteristics of a region that provides assessment results in terms of vulnerability as well as information on the potential advantages of the adaptation option [13]. The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) compendium provides tools and data used by Non-Annex I Parties to the UNFCCC to assess vulnerability to climate change [14]. The United States Geological Survey (USGS) offers a web-based vulnerability assessment tool, Climate Registry for the Assessment of Vulnerability (CRAVe), and provides results of climate change vulnerability assessment of threats to nature and natural resources in the US [15]. The Climate Change Integrated assessment Methodology for cross-Sectoral Adaptation and Vulnerability in Europe (CLIMSAVE) project developed a web-based tool to assess climate change and adaptation options for Europe [16]. This tool allows stakeholders to assess quantitatively climate change vulnerabilities for a range of sectors: agriculture, forests, biodiversity, coasts, water resources, and urban development. The Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR) provides the results of climate change vulnerability assessments for developing countries, as well as country profiles that include various data sets such as precipitation, temperature change, and vulnerability indices [17,18]. In Korea, to date, these tools have not yet been applied in a practical way due to a lack of standards set by the government for methodologies, proxy variables, and weighting factors. To this end, we suggest 455 proxy variables and weighting factors for 32 vulnerability assessment items in 7 categories, based on the concept of vulnerability assessment defined in the IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Report [1]. In addition, a GIS-based tool, known as the Vulnerability Assessment Tool to build Climate Change Adaptation Plan (VESTAP) was developed for the automation and visualization of vulnerability assessment. The 455 proxy variables are calculated from RCP scenario and current statistical data such as social, economic and geographic. These proxy variables are classified into climate exposure, sensitivity and adaptation ability indexes. For the climate exposure index, VESTAP utilizes RPC 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios that were refined by the Korea Meteorological Administration based on HadGEM2, a climate projection model from the UK Met Office. The climate exposure variables were divided temporally into 10-year intervals from the 2000s to the 2040s. Geographically, the proxy variables were divided into “Province level”, “Municipality level”, and “Submunicipality level” groups. Province-level divisions include metropolitan areas and provinces (Do), which are segmented into municipalities such as cities (Si), counties (Gun), and districts (Gu). Submunicipalities, as the smallest administrative units in South Korea, include towns (Eup), townships (Myeon), and neighborhoods (Dong). Sustainability 2017, 9, 1103 3 of 15 Many researchers have estimated that the occurrence of heat waves and the adverse effects associated with them will increase due to global warming [19,20]. Heat waves lead to physiological changes in the human body, and are a direct cause of increased heat-related illnesses and deaths [21– 23]. Extreme heat wave events have been identified as the deadliest weather-related hazard in many nations [24]. In particular, extreme heat wave events caused 80,000 deaths in Europe in 2003 [25] and 54,000 deaths in Russia in 2010 [26]. Kysely [27] conducted a study on the annual number of deaths in Korea caused by extreme weather events from 1901 to 2008; heat waves were found to be the dominant cause of death, killing 3384 people. In other words, the threat to health due to heat waves is the most serious problem associated with extreme weather in Korea. The adverse health effects that result from extreme heat waves can be prevented. Some nations that implement heat wave response measures during heat waves have experienced decreases in the incidences of heat-related illnesses