1 December 29, 2010 Lessons from the Nordic Financial Crisis Lars Jonung Department of Economics, Lund University, Lund, Sweden The Fiscal Policy Council of Sweden Prepared for the AEA meeting in Denver January 2011 This report is based on chapter 12 in The Great Financial Crisis in Finland and Sweden. The Nordic Experience of Financial Liberalization, edited by Lars Jonung, Jaakko Kiander and Pentti Vartia, Edward Elgar, 2009. Comments invited to
[email protected] 2 Lessons from the Nordic Financial Crisis Introduction In this report, the financial crises that erupted in the Nordic countries in the early 1990s are discussed in order to derive policy lessons for today. These lessons may be useful for any country subject to financial tensions in the future. As history demonstrates, financial crises are recurring phenomena; there will be new crises. 1 The stylized pattern of the Nordic crises For a long time, high growth and full employment characterized the macroeconomic record of Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden – the Nordic or Scandinavian countries – during the post-World-War-II period.1 Prior to the 1990s, the Nordic countries were able to avoid the persistent mass unemployment common to the many European countries already in the 1970s. Denmark was the only Nordic country experiencing high unemployment in the 1980s. However, the image of the Nordic economies as successful was crushed in the beginning of the 1990s when Finland and Sweden faced a severe crisis and Norway a milder one. The Nordic crises have their roots in the process of financial liberalization that was carried out in a monetary regime based on pegged but adjustable exchange rates.