2014 POST-ELECTION ANALYSIS: NORTH CAROLINA

TABLE OF CONTENTS

STATE OVERVIEW 2

Registration Overview 3

Turnout Analysis 4

Election Law Impacts 4

Exit Polling 5

U.S. SENATE 9

Media Spending Analysis 12

Geographic Analysis 14

CONGRESS 15

NC-12 15

STATE LEGISLATURE 16

State Senate 16

State House 17

Consequences 18

STATE OVERVIEW

In 2012, Republicans in North Carolina took complete control of all levels of government for the first time since Reconstruction.1 Republicans pushed through an aggressively conservative agenda in 2013, but progressives pushed back, forming the Moral Monday movement to protest the legislature and GOP overreach.2

North Carolina’s premiere race, the fight for Kay Hagan’s U.S. Senate seat, was greatly impacted by that in-state battle.3 Hagan’s Republican opponent, state House Speaker Thom Tillis, focused on national issues and tried to make his campaign against Hagan into a referendum on President Obama. Hagan worked to make the race about the unpopular legislature and its extreme right-wing policy push, particularly with regard to education.4 Hagan also proved to be an outstanding fundraiser; she and her progressive allies maintained a spending edge on Tillis and his conservative allies throughout the summer.5 The race was heavily targeted by outside groups on both sides and was the most expensive Senate race in history.6

Hagan maintained a slim but solid lead in the polls throughout the fall, but on Election Day Tillis edged her out, winning 49.0% to 47.3%, with Libertarian Sean Haugh getting 3.7%.7

Democrats also targeted a handful of Republican seats in the state Senate and state House, where they needed to pick up seats in each chamber to end Republican supermajorities. However, Republicans managed to add one seat to their state Senate majority, while Democrats won a net of three seats in the state House. Republicans were able to preserve their supermajorities.8

1 “The Decline of North Carolina,” The New York Times, July 9, 2013. 2 Dani McClain, “How the Moral Mondays ‘Fusion Coalition’ Is Taking North Carolina Back,” The Nation, July 1, 2014. 3 Benjy Sarlin, “North Carolina Senate seat may be price of GOP success,” MSNBC, October 13, 2014. 4 Katrina vanden Heuvel, “In N.C., populist mobilization buoys Democrat Kay Hagan,” Washington Post, October 14, 2014. 5 Tarini Parti, “Rand Paul rallies for Greg Brannon in North Carolina,” Politico, May 5, 2014. 6 Benjamin Siegel, “How North Carolina Became the Most Expensive Senate Race Ever,” ABC News, November 3, 2014. 7 “North Carolina: AP Election Results,” Associated Press, accessed November 5, 2014, at 4:39am 8 Laura Leslie, “GOP keeps super-majorities in General Assembly,” WRAL, November 5, 2014.

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North Carolina 2014 Election Results Dem vs. Incumbent Dem Other Office Democrat Republican GOP % GOP % Party % % Margin U.S Senate Kay Hagan Thom Tillis Democrat 47.3% 49.0% 3.7% -1.7% NC-01 G.K. Butterfield Arthur Rich Democrat 73.3% 26.7% 0.0% 46.6% NC-02 Clay Aiken Renee Elmers Republican 41.1% 58.9% 0.0% -17.8% NC-03 Marshall Adame Walter Jones Republican 32.2% 67.8% 0.0% -35.6% NC-04 David Price Paul Wright Democrat 74.7% 25.3% 0.0% 49.4% NC-05 Joshua Brannon Virginia Foxx Republican 39.0% 61.0% 0.0% -22.0% NC-06 Laura Fjeld Mark Walker Republican 41.3% 58.7% 0.0% -17.4% NC-07 Jonathan Barfield David Rouzer OPEN (D) 37.1% 59.4% 3.5% -22.3% NC-08 Antonio Blue Richard Hudson Republican 35.1% 64.9% 0.0% -29.8% NC-09 N/A Robert Pittenger Republican 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% N/A NC-10 Tate McQueen Patrick McHenry Republican 39.0% 61.0% 0.0% -22.0% NC-11 Tom Hill Mark Meadows Republican 37.1% 62.9% 0.0% -25.8% NC-12 (Unexpired Alma Adams Vince Coakley OPEN (D) 75.4% 24.6% 0.0% 50.8% Term) NC-12 (Full Term) Alma Adams Vince Coakley OPEN (D) 75.4% 24.6% 0.0% 50.8% NC-13 Brenda Cleary George Holding Republican 42.7% 57.3% 0.0% -14.6% State Senate 17 Seats 33 Seats Republican 16 D 34 R 0 R+1 State House 43 Seats 77 Seats Republican 46 D 74 R 0 D+3 Sources: “North Carolina: AP Election Results,” Associated Press, accessed November 5, 2014, at 4:39am; Laura Leslie, “GOP keeps super-majorities in General Assembly,” WRAL, November 5, 2014

REGISTRATION OVERVIEW As in many Southern states, Democrats have long maintained a historic edge in voter registration in North Carolina. That edge has eroded gradually over the last six years, dropping from an 864,253 voter registration advantage in November 2008 to a 755,014 voter advantage in 2014. The share of Republican voters has also dropped over the last six years, while voters who don’t side with either party jumped from 22.3% of voters in 2008 to 27.9% in 2014.9

9 “NC Voter Statistics,” North Carolina Board of Elections, accessed November 4, 2014.

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North Carolina Voter Registration by Party Other Dem Date Dem Dem % GOP GOP % Other Total % Advantage November 2008 2,866,669 45.7% 2,002,416 32.0% 1,395,648 22.3% 6,264,733 864,253 November 2010 2,769,372 44.7% 1,958,533 31.6% 1,472,920 23.7% 6,200,825 821,839 November 2012 2,870,693 43.1% 2,052,250 30.9% 1,726,245 26.0% 6,649,188 818,443 November 2014 2,767,586 41.7% 2,012,572 30.4% 1,847,233 27.9% 6,627,391 755,014 Change Since 2004 -99,083 -4.0% 10,156 -1.6% 451,585 5.6 362,658 -109,239 Source: “NC Voter Statistics,” North Carolina Board of Elections, accessed November 4, 2014.

TURNOUT ANALYSIS Turnout in North Carolina fell 26.3 points between 2008 and 2010, more than the 20.7 point drop-off nationwide. Some of that can be attributed to the fact that North Carolina went from a state that was targeted in the presidential race and had high profile U.S. Senate and gubernatorial races in 2008 to a state that had virtually no truly competitive statewide races in 2010. In 2012, VEP turnout was slightly lower than it had been in 2008 (64.9% to 65.5%), but the drop-off was much less than the national average. Turnout in 2014 was slightly higher than it had been in 2010, reaching 40.7%.10

North Carolina VEP Turnout Since 2008 VEP Highest- VEP Turnout National VEP Year VEP Office Turnout Rate Turnout Rate 2008 6,584,302 4,310,789 65.5% 61.6% 2010 6,787,238 2,660,079 39.2% 40.9% 2012 6,946,385 4,505,372 64.9% 58.0% 2014* 7,132,188 2,900,000 40.7% 36.6% Difference from 2010 344,950 239,921 1.5% -4.3% Difference from 2012 185,803 -1,605,372 -24.2% -21.4% Sources: “Voter Turnout,” United States Elections Project, accessed November 5, 2014.

* 2014 VEP turnout is a preliminary estimate from the U.S. Elections Project and should not be viewed as final.

ELECTION LAW IMPACTS The Supreme Court’s decision that effectively struck down Section Five of the Voting Rights Act gave North Carolina Republicans the perfect opportunity to rewrite the state’s election laws. Tom Apodaca, the chairman of the state Senate Rules Committee, said Republicans would put together an “omnibus bill with a lot of different election laws and changes in it.”11 He made good on his threat, and in late July 2013 North Carolina Republicans rammed through a 57-page election reform bill that has been called one of most restrictive voting bills in the country.12 When the bill passed the state House, Democrats simply stood, held hands and bowed their heads to express their opposition to the legislation.13 Governor McCrory signed the bill on August 12, 2013.

10 “Voter Turnout,” United States Elections Project, accessed November 5, 2014. 11 Jessica Jones, “Supreme Court Decision Prompts New Look at NC Voting Laws,” WUNC, June 26, 2013. 12 Lauren Williams, “Why North Carolina’s Voter ID Bill Might be the Nation’s Worst,” Mother Jones, July 24, 2013 13 Lynn Bonner, David Perlmutt, Anne Blythe, “NC elections bill headed to governor,” News and Observer, July 26, 2013.

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North Carolina Policy Watch summarized the bill, which, among other changes such as moving up the state’s presidential primary, would:14

. Cut early voting from 17 days to 10 days . Eliminate straight ticket party voting . End same-day registration during early voting . Ban paid voter registration drives . Prohibit localities from extending hours due to long lines . End pre-registration for 16 and 17 year olds . Authorize expanded party appointed “poll observers” and make it easier for observers to challenge voters . Increase the maximum campaign contribution in the state to $5000 . Weaken disclosure requirements for IE committees

The Brennan Center for Justice said that while it was “too early to assess the impact of the law this year” there were widespread problems on Election Day and suggested that the shortened early voting window may have had a role in helping Thom Tillis win the U.S. Senate race.15

EXIT POLLING

RACE

Exit polls show that statewide Democratic candidates cannot win in North Carolina without significant African American support. For example, in 2008 and 2012, approximately three-quarters of the electorate was white, and these voters did not support Democrats at a high rate. Obama won only 35% of support from white voters in 2008, and Hagan won just 33% of the white vote in 2014.16

African Americans made up 23% of the electorate in both the 2012 and the 2008 presidential races. In 2014, that number slipped slightly to 21% of the electorate. In 2012, Obama overwhelmingly won their support, getting 96% of the African American vote, while Walter Dalton won just 85% in the governor’s race.17 Hagan performed extremely well with African American voters, winning 96% -- the same as President Obama.18 The slight dip in the percent of the electorate that was made up of African Americans, compared with Hagan’s poor performance among white voters, made it difficult for her to win.

14 Rob Schofield, “The evil symmetry of the 2013 session,” NC Policy Watch, July 23, 2013. 15 Wendy Weiser, “How Much of a Difference Did New Voting Restrictions Make in Yesterday's Close Races?,” Brennan Center for Justice, November 5, 2014. 16 “North Carolina Senate Exit Polls,” CNN, accessed November 5, 2014, at 2:05 p.m.; North Carolina Senate Exit Polls,” CNN, November 4, 2008. 17 “North Carolina President Exit Polls,” CNN, November 6, 2012; “North Carolina Governor Exit Polls,” CNN, November 6, 2012 18 “North Carolina Senate Exit Polls,” CNN, accessed November 5, 2014, at 2:05 p.m.; “2008 North Carolina Senate Exit Polling,” CNN.com accessed November 6, 2012

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North Carolina Performance and Vote Share by Race Perdue Hagan Obama Dalton Obama Hagan Race 2008 2008 2008 2012 2012 2014 Performance by Race (Exit Polls) White 36% 39% 35% 29% 31% 33% African American 95% 96% 95% 85% 96% 96% Hispanic N/A N/A N/A 52% 68% N/A Asian N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Other N/A N/A N/A 44% 52% N/A Vote Share by Race (Exit Polls) White 75% 75% 72% 71% 70% 74% African American 19% 19% 23% 22% 23% 21% Hispanic 4% 3% 3% 3% 4% 3% Asian 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% Other 1% 2% 2% 2% 2% 1% Sources: “North Carolina Governor Exit Polls,” CNN, November 4, 2008; “North Carolina Senate Exit Polls,” CNN, November 4, 2008; “North Carolina President Exit Polls,” CNN, November 4, 2008; “North Carolina Governor Exit Polls,” CNN, November 6, 2012; “North Carolina President Exit Polls,” CNN, November 6, 2012; “North Carolina Senate Exit Polls,” CNN, accessed November 5, 2014, at 2:05 p.m.

GENDER

In 2008, Obama won women with 55% but still lost men (43%). Hagan and Perdue did slightly better than Obama with men, both capturing 47%. Hagan and Perdue, both women, won the female vote with 55% and 52%, respectively.19

In 2012, President Obama did not carry the female vote by the same margins as he did in 2008, getting just 51% of women, compared to 55% in 2008. In 2014, the gender gap was one of the largest in recent years. Hagan won women by 12 points, but Tillis won men by 15 points. Those numbers were very different among white voters; Hagan lost white women by 18 points and lost white men by a staggering 42 points.20 Exit polling also found a significant divide between married and unmarried women. Hagan carried unmarried women with 63% of the vote but actually lost married women to Tillis, garnering just 45% of their votes.21

19 “North Carolina Senate Exit Polls,” CNN, accessed November 5, 2014, at 2:05 p.m; “North Carolina President Exit Polls,” CNN, November 6, 2012; North Carolina Senate Exit Polls,” CNN, November 4, 2008; North Carolina Governor Exit Polls,” CNN, November 4, 2008 20 “North Carolina Senate Exit Polls,” CNN, accessed November 5, 2014, at 2:05 p.m. 21 “North Carolina Senate Exit Polls,” CNN, accessed November 5, 2014, at 2:05 p.m.

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North Carolina Performance and Vote Share by Gender Perdue Hagan Obama Dalton Obama Hagan Gender 2008 2008 2008 2012 2012 2014 Performance by Gender (Exit Polls) Women 52% 55% 55% 45% 51% 54% Men 47% 47% 43% 40% 45% 41% Vote Share by Gender (Exit Polls) Women 54% 54% 54% 55% 56% 53% Men 46% 46% 46% 45% 44% 47% Sources: “North Carolina Governor Exit Polls,” CNN, November 4, 2008; “North Carolina Senate Exit Polls,” CNN, November 4, 2008; “North Carolina President Exit Polls,” CNN, November 4, 2008; “North Carolina Governor Exit Polls,” CNN, November 6, 2012; “North Carolina President Exit Polls,” CNN, November 6, 2012; “North Carolina Senate Exit Polls,” CNN, accessed November 5, 2014, at 2:05 p.m.

PARTISANSHIP (SELF-ID)

President Obama won 91% of Democrats in 2012, one point higher than in 2008. However, the Democratic share of the electorate dropped from 42% in 2008 to 39% in 2012. Walter Dalton trailed Obama with Democrats, only capturing 83% of the Democratic vote.22 In 2014, Hagan won 91% of Democrats, the same percentage as President Obama in 2012 and an improvement on her performance in 2008.23

A high level of support from Democrats has been critical, since a majority of self-identified independents did not support Democrats in either 2008 or 2012. Obama performed slightly higher with independents in 2012 than in 2008, getting 42% of their vote as opposed to 38%. Hagan won 39% of independents in 2008 and 42% in 201424.

The biggest problem for Hagan is that she was simply facing a different electorate in 2014. While the 2008 electorate was 42% Democratic and just 31% Republican, the 2014 electorate was more evenly divided. According to exit polls, 36% of the electorate self-identified as Democrats, while 35% self-identified as Republican.25

22 “North Carolina President Exit Polls,” CNN, November 4, 2008; “North Carolina Governor Exit Polls,” CNN, November 4, 2008. 23 “North Carolina Senate Exit Polls,” CNN, accessed November 5, 2014, at 2:05 p.m; “North Carolina President Exit Polls,” CNN, November 6, 2012 24 North Carolina Senate Exit Polls,” CNN, accessed November 5, 2014, at 2:05 p.m; “North Carolina President Exit Polls,” CNN, November 6, 2012; ; North Carolina Senate Exit Polls,” CNN, November 4, 2008 25 North Carolina Senate Exit Polls,” CNN, accessed November 5, 2014, at 2:05 p.m; “North Carolina President Exit Polls,” CNN, November 6, 2012; ; North Carolina Senate Exit Polls,” CNN, November 4, 2008

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North Carolina Performance and Vote Share by Party ID Perdue Hagan Obama Dalton Obama Hagan Party ID 2008 2008 2008 2012 2012 2014 Performance by Party ID (Exit Polls) Democrat 88% 90% 90% 83% 91% 91% Republican 9% 10% 4% 4% 4% 6% Independent 37% 39% 39% 34% 42% 42% Share of Vote by Party ID (Exit Polls) Democrat 42% 42% 42% 38% 39% 36% Republican 31% 31% 31% 33% 33% 35% Independent 27% 27% 27% 28% 29% 29% Sources: “North Carolina Governor Exit Polls,” CNN, November 4, 2008; “North Carolina Senate Exit Polls,” CNN, November 4, 2008; “North Carolina President Exit Polls,” CNN, November 4, 2008; “North Carolina Governor Exit Polls,” CNN, November 6, 2012; “North Carolina President Exit Polls,” CNN, November 6, 2012; “North Carolina Senate Exit Polls,” CNN, accessed November 5, 2014, at 2:05 p.m.

AGE

Exit polls indicate young voters are a vital part of the Democratic coalition in North Carolina. In 2008, young voters supported Obama at a higher rate in North Carolina than they did nationally, 74% compared to 66%.26 Obama’s support dropped among young voters in 2012, but 67% of them still supported his campaign.27 Hagan won 71% of young voters in 2008, but in 2014, her support among young voters collapsed to just 53%.28

Some of that drop-off among young voters may have been caused by defections to Sean Haugh, the Libertarian candidate. A conservative outside group ran online ads targeted at young voters that touted Haugh’s support for legalizing marijuana and used the slogan “More weed, less war.” Haugh got 8% among young voters, his highest level of support of any age group.29

It is important to note that, tracking across the previous three federal election cycles, there has been a sharp divide in nationwide Democratic performance among young voters, falling along racial lines. In national exit polls of the last three federal election cycles, Democratic performance with young minority voters has remained consistently high, while over the same span, national Democratic performance with young white voters has dropped in successive cycles, down from 54% in 2008 to 45% in 2010, 44% in 2012, and 43% in 2014.30 It is likely that the relative strength of the youth vote in North Carolina is, in part, attributable to this trend.

26 “North Carolina Senate Exit Polls,” CNN, accessed November 5, 2014, at 2:05 p.m; “North Carolina President Exit Polls,” CNN, November 6, 2012; North Carolina Senate Exit Polls,” CNN, November 4, 2008; North Carolina President Exit Polls,” CNN, November 4, 2008 27 “North Carolina President Exit Polls,” CNN, November 6, 2012; North Carolina President Exit Polls,” CNN, November 4, 2008 28 North Carolina Senate Exit Polls,” CNN, accessed November 5, 2014, at 2:05 p.m; North Carolina Senate Exit Polls,” CNN, November 4, 2008 29 North Carolina Senate Exit Polls,” CNN, accessed November 5, 2014, at 2:05 p.m; North Carolina Senate Exit Polls,” CNN, November 4, 2008 30 Surbhi Godsay, Amanda Nover, and Emily Kirby, “The Minority Youth Vote in the 2008 Presidential Election,” The Center for Information & Research on Civic Learning & Engagement, October 2010; “Young Voters in the 2010 Elections,” The Center for Information & Research on Civic Learning & Engagement, November 17, 2010; “National President Exit Polls,” CNN, accessed November 6, 2012; “National House Exit Polls,” CNN, accessed November 7, 2014, at 11:48 p.m.

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Seniors made up 23% of the electorate in 2014, up from 21% of the electorate in 2012 and 16% in 2008.31 Voters in this group are reliably Republican, although Hagan won 45% of the senior vote in 2008. In 2014, that number dropped to 42%.32 In 2008, Obama won 43% of senior voters. In 2012, Obama won just 35% of seniors.33

In 2008 and 2012, people ages 45-64 constituted the largest share of voters, making up 39%-40% of the electorate in 2012 and 39% in 2008.34 They were also the largest group in 2014, making up 41% of the electorate.35 A combined 64% of the electorate was over the age of 45.36

North Carolina Performance and Vote Share by Age Perdue Hagan Obama Dalton Obama Hagan Age 2008 2008 2008 2012 2012 2014 Performance by Age (Exit Polls) 18–29 71% 71% 74% 56% 67% 53% 30–44 50% 51% 48% 46% 51% 54% 45–64 45% 46% 43% 41% 47% 46% 65+ 40% 45% 43% 34% 35% 42% Vote Share by Age (Exit Polls) 18–29 17% 17% 18% 14% 16% 12% 30–44 28% 27% 27% 24% 24% 25% 45–64* 39% 39% 39% 40% 39% 41% 65+ 16% 16% 16% 21% 21% 23% Sources: “North Carolina Governor Exit Polls,” CNN, November 4, 2008; “North Carolina Senate Exit Polls,” CNN, November 4, 2008; “North Carolina President Exit Polls,” CNN, November 4, 2008; “North Carolina Governor Exit Polls,” CNN, November 6, 2012; “North Carolina President Exit Polls,” CNN, November 6, 2012; “North Carolina Senate Exit Polls,” CNN, accessed November 5, 2014, at 2:05 p.m.

U.S. SENATE

Democrat Kay Hagan had knocked off Republican Senator Elizabeth Dole in 2008 and, heading into 2014, was widely seen as one of the most vulnerable Democratic senators up for re-election.37 No Democrat had won a second Senate term in North Carolina since Sam Ervin in 1968.38 Republican outside groups started attacking Hagan early. The Koch brothers-backed Americans for Prosperity went on the air in October 2013.39

While Hagan was facing tough attacks from conservative groups attempting to link her to President Obama, Republicans were engaged in a tough primary fight. The field vying to take on Hagan included Thom Tillis, the establishment favorite and the Speaker of the state House; Greg Brannon, an OB-GYN and libertarian favorite; and Mark Harris, a reverend with the backing of Mike Huckabee

31 North Carolina Senate Exit Polls,” CNN, accessed November 5, 2014, at 2:05 p.m; North Carolina Senate Exit Polls,” CNN, November 4, 2008 32 “North Carolina Senate Exit Polls,” CNN, accessed November 5, 2014, at 2:05 p.m. 33 “North Carolina President Exit Polls,” CNN, November 6, 2012; North Carolina President Exit Polls,” CNN, November 4, 2008. 34 North Carolina Senate Exit Polls,” CNN, November 4, 2008. 35 “North Carolina Senate Exit Polls,” CNN, accessed November 5, 2014, at 2:05 p.m. 36 “North Carolina Senate Exit Polls,” CNN, accessed November 5, 2014, at 2:05 p.m. 37 Katrina vanden Heuvel, “In N.C., populist mobilization buoys Democrat Kay Hagan,” Washington Post, October 14, 2014. 38 “N.C. Sen. Hagan says she's governing as moderate,” Associated Press, January 20, 2013. 39 CMAG data, accessed October 22, 2014. Copyright 2014 by Kantar Media Intelligence. All rights reserved.

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and much of the evangelical community.40 Tillis won a surprisingly resounding victory, defeating Brannon and Harris without the need for a runoff.41 While Tillis’ victory was seen as a major boon for Republicans, his ties to the state’s unpopular legislature made him a problematic candidate from the start. Tillis and Hagan were joined on the ballot by Sean Haugh, a libertarian pizza delivery man who polled in mid-single digits.42 While Haugh was initially seen as a potential spoiler for Tillis, a late- October poll from PPP showed that he was drawing votes from Tillis and Hagan almost evenly.43 A conservative dark money group ran online ads late in the campaign featuring young people encouraging support for Haugh instead of Hagan for “More weed, less war.”44

Following the 2012 elections, Republicans in North Carolina controlled the governor’s mansion and both chambers of the state legislature for the first time since Reconstruction. In 2013, they overreached and sparked a major protest movement known as “Moral Monday.”45 Because Tillis had such in key role in the legislature, Hagan was able to make the race a referendum on what was happening in North Carolina instead of what was happening in Washington. For most of the summer and fall, the dominant issue in the state was education.46 One Hagan adviser reportedly joked, “We turned this into a school board race.”47 Towards the end of the campaign, Tillis attempted to shift the race towards more national themes, including Ebola and ISIL.48

The fact that Tillis was tied down in the state legislature for the summer gave Hagan another edge in the race. It allowed her to vastly outraise Tillis for most of the year, a key advantage in a race that would become the most expensive Senate in American history. In third quarter of 2014, Hagan brought in $4.9 million to $3.4 million for Tillis, and because of the massive advantage she had built up throughout the year, she was able to spend $11.6 million over that period, while Tillis spent just $2.7 million.49 Despite the fundraising gap, Republican groups helped Tillis keep up by pouring money in the state.50

Conservative groups weren’t the only ones who spent heavily in the state. Progressive outside groups didn’t just spend on the airwaves; EMILY’s List and Planned Parenthood both committed $3 million to ad time and GOTV efforts.51 In October, the League of Conservation Voters rolled out a $4.2 million program that included TV ads, web ads, direct mail, and a $2.2 million voter contact operation aimed at turning out likely Hagan voters who gone to the polls in 2012 but not in 2010.52 The NEA Advocacy Fund spent a reported $2.9 million to aid Hagan, and Patriot Majority spent $1.7 million.53

40 Tarini Parti, “Rand Paul rallies for Greg Brannon in North Carolina,” Politico, May 5, 2014. 41 John Frank, “US Senate: Thom Tillis easily wins Republican primary, takes aim at Democrat Kay Hagan,” Raleigh News and Observer, May 6, 2014. 42 Karen Tumulty and Reid Wilson, “Meet Sean Haugh, the Libertarian pizza guy who may deliver a Senate seat in N.C.,” Washington Post, July 6, 2014; “NC Senate: Tillis vs. Hagan vs. Haugh,” Real Clear Politics, accessed October 23, 2014. 43 Public Policy Polling, “Hagan maintains lead in North Carolina Senate race,” Public Policy Polling, October 16-18. 44 Matea Gold, “Conservative group funds pro-weed campaign for North Carolina Libertarian candidate,” Washington Post, October 23, 2014. 45 Katrina vanden Heuvel, “In N.C., populist mobilization buoys Democrat Kay Hagan,” Washington Post, October 14, 2014. 46 Jim Morrill, “Education rising in Senate race,” Raleigh News and Observer, September 5, 2014. 47 Alex Roarty, “Could the 'Perfect' Campaign Lose?,” National Journal, October 23, 2014. 48 Matea Gold, “Ebola, Islamic State shift dynamics for Hagan, Tillis in North Carolina’s Senate race,” The Washington Post, October 19, 2014. 49 Rebecca Ballhaus, “Kay Hagan-Thom Tillis Money Race Tightens in North Carolina,” Wall Street Journal, October 14, 2014. 50 Benjamin Siegel, “How North Carolina Became the Most Expensive Senate Race Ever,” ABC News, November 3, 2014. 51 Tarini Parti, “How Kay Hagan stayed afloat,” Politico, October 3, 2014. 52 Jeff Gohringer, “LCV Victory Fund Announces Major $4.2 million North Carolina Program to Re-Elect Senator Kay Hagan,” League of Conservation Voters, October 22, 2014. 53 Jim Morrill, “Tillis-Hagan showdown could be nation’s most expensive Senate race ever,” Raleigh News and Observer, October 18, 2014.

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North Carolina Senate 2014 Public Polling

North Carolina Polling Accuracy

Pollster Dates Sample Hagan % Tillis %

Harper (R) 10/28-10/30 511 LVs 44% 46% FOX News 10/28-10/30 909 LVs 43% 42% Civitas (R) 10/29-10/30 600 LVs 41% 41% Public Policy Polling (D) 11-1/11-3 1333 LVs 46% 44% Real Clear Politics Average N/A N/A 44.1% 43.4% Final Results N/A N/A 47.3% 49.0% Difference N/A N/A 3.2% 5.6% Sources: ”NC Senate – Tillis vs. Hagan vs. Haugh,” Real Clear Politics, accessed November 4, 2014; “North Carolina: AP Election Results,” Associated Press, accessed November 5, 2014, at 4:39am

Polling showed Hagan with a slim but steady lead throughout the fall, leading in all but one of the polls taken from September through late October.54 While Tillis closed the gap in the final weeks, Hagan maintained a small lead in most public polls.55 In the end Tillis pulled out a narrow victory 49.0%-47.3%.56

North Carolina Senate 2014 Results Registered Total Hagan Other Other Hagan % Tillis Votes Tillis % Voters Voters Votes Votes % 6,627,391 2,886,210 1,364,758 47.3% 1,413,269 49.0% 108,183 3.7% Sources: “North Carolina: AP Election Results,” Associated Press, accessed November 5, 2014, at 4:39am

54 “NC Senate: Tillis vs. Hagan vs. Haugh,” Real Clear Politics, accessed October 30, 2014. 55 “NC Senate: Tillis vs. Hagan vs. Haugh,” Real Clear Politics, accessed November 4, 2014. 56 “North Carolina: AP Election Results,” Associated Press, accessed November 5, 2014, at 4:39am

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MEDIA SPENDING ANALYSIS The media spending numbers in this section are from CMAG and consist of broadcast television data only. Costs are estimates as of November 5, 2014. All data is copyright 2014 by Kantar Media Intelligence. All rights reserved.

According to the final estimates, a staggering $71 million was spent on broadcast TV for the North Carolina Senate race (including the Republican primary).57 Spending started early in the race as Americans for Prosperity went on the air in October 2013; Republicans attacked Hagan for months while the GOP searched for a nominee. Senate Majority PAC followed suit by going on the air in November 2013.58 Hagan’s campaign ran far more spots than the Tillis campaign (18,998 to 10,186). Those numbers don’t include an additional 1,166 Hagan ran in conjunction with the DSCC and 1,606 ads that Tillis ran in conjunction with the NRSC. , Despite heavy spending from outside conservative groups, progressive groups had an edge on the airwaves.59 Hagan’s campaign and her progressive allies combined to run 63,853 ads on broadcast, compared to 50,060 ads for Tillis and his conservative allies. That total for conservative groups does not include 391 broadcast spots that Mark Harris ran in the GOP primary 60 The largest outside spenders on the progressive side included Senate Majority PAC, the DSCC, Patriot Majority, and the NEA. On the conservative side, the NRSC led the way followed by Crossroads GPS, Americans for Prosperity the Koch-backed Carolina Rising and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce.61

North Carolina Senate 2014 Broadcast-Media Spot Counts62

57 CMAG data, accessed November 5, 2014. Copyright 2014 by Kantar Media Intelligence. All rights reserved. 58 CMAG data, accessed October 22, 2014. Copyright 2014 by Kantar Media Intelligence. All rights reserved. 59 CMAG data, accessed November 5, 2014. Copyright 2014 by Kantar Media Intelligence. All rights reserved. 60 CMAG data, accessed November 5, 2014. Copyright 2014 by Kantar Media Intelligence. All rights reserved. 61 CMAG data, accessed November 5, 2014. Copyright 2014 by Kantar Media Intelligence. All rights reserved. 62 CMAG data, accessed November 5, 2014. Copyright 2014 by Kantar Media Intelligence. All rights reserved.

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North Carolina Senate 2014 Estimated Broadcast-Media Spending63

MESSAGING

The messaging wars in North Carolina were between progressive groups who wanted the race to focus on more local issues, especially education and conservative groups who attempted to tie Hagan to Obama. According to CMAG data, conservatives ran more than 32,000 anti-Obama spots. According to exit polling, 60% of North Carolina voters said they were either angry or dissatisfied with the Obama administration, and Tillis won those voters 78%-16%. Exit polling also found that 52% of voters said Hagan agrees with Obama too often; Tillis carried those voters 84%-11%.64

On the progressive side, the major themes in the race included Tillis’s support for tax breaks for the wealthy, cuts to education, the Republican budget in Raleigh, and Medicare.65 Women’s health also was an important factor in the race, with Hagan and outside groups hitting Tillis for his stances on choice issues. One late ad from Planned Parenthood said that, as Speaker, Tillis had “fundamentally changed access to health care for women across this state.”66 Exit polling showed that Hagan won women 54%-42%.67

63 CMAG data, accessed November 5, 2014. Copyright 2014 by Kantar Media Intelligence. All rights reserved. 64 “North Carolina Senate Exit Polls,” CNN, accessed November 5, 2014, at 2:05 p.m. 65 “North Carolina Senate Exit Polls,” CNN, accessed November 5, 2014, at 2:05 p.m. 66 Renee Schoof, “New TV ads hit Tillis on women’s health, Hagan on federal insurance,” Raleigh News and Observer, October 16, 2014. 67 “North Carolina Senate Exit Polls,” CNN, accessed November 5, 2014, at 2:05 p.m.

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GEOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS North Carolina Regional Map68

There are no hard and fast demonstrated paths to victory for Democrats in North Carolina. Parts of the state tend to give a clear regional boost to native sons and daughters; examples include Kay Hagan in the Piedmont Triangle in 2008, former Governors Bev Perdue and Mike Easley in the state’s eastern regions, and Charlotte’s former Republican Mayor Pat McCrory in Charlotte. That said, successful Democrats typically chart the following path to victory in North Carolina:

. Run up the score in the Research Triangle. Hagan carried 57.3% of the vote the Triangle, That’s slightly better than President Obama’s 2012 performance when he won 57.1% in the region, but down from Hagan’s own performance in 2008, when she took 58.8% of the vote here. . Perform well in the Northeast and Sandhills. These two rural, heavily African American regions have been important for Democrats. Hagan easily won the Northeast region with 54.1% of the vote, but she struggled in the Sandhills region, winning just 47.9%. In 2008, she won those two regions with 58.6% and 54.5% of the vote, respectively. . Keep it close in the Piedmont Triad and in Charlotte. Winning Democrats don’t have to win Charlotte or the Piedmont Triad regions outright, but they do need to keep the race extremely close here. Hagan is from the Piedmont Triad region, while Tillis is from Cornelius, a suburb of Charlotte. Tillis benefitted from his home field advantage in the Charlotte region, holding Hagan to just 44.6% of the vote there, down from 49.9% in 2008. She was unable to make up for that drop-off in the Piedmont, winning just 44.0% of that vote. She carried the region with 52.0% in 2008, and President Obama won 46.0% in the region in 2012. . Don’t get blown out in the rest of the state. Democrats can’t let Republicans run up big margins Downeast or in the Western part of the state. Hagan got just 42.2% and 40.2% of the vote in the regions, respectively, but these regions were also home to the biggest vote totals for Libertarian Sean Haugh. Haugh won 4.5% of the vote Downeast and 5.1% in the Western region.

68 Atlas expert interview, conducted June 10, 2013.

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Hagan 2014 Performance by County

CONGRESS NC-12 In December 2013, Democrat Mel Watt, who had held his seat since 1993, announced that he would retire from Congress once he was sworn in as the new head of the Federal Housing Finance Agency.69 Governor Pat McCrory announced that a special election to finish out Watt’s term would be held concurrently with the general election.70 A strong field of Democratic candidates had already lined up in this heavily Democratic district. Primary candidates included state Senator Malcom Graham, state Rep. Alma Adams, state Rep. Marcus Brandon, Charlotte City councilman James “Smuggie” Mitchell, and Charlotte lawyers Curtis Osborne and George Battle.71

Adams went into the primary with two big advantages. She was the only woman in the race and, in a district that winds from West Charlotte to Greensboro, she was the only prominent candidate who didn’t hail from Charlotte.72 She had also picked up a series of crucial early endorsements from EMILY’s List, the North Carolina Association of Educators, and the Teamsters.73 EMILY’s List spent heavily on mail pieces backing Adams.74

Adams won a surprisingly easy victory in the primary, winning five of the six counties in the Triad and easily clearing the 40% she needed to avoid a runoff in both the special election and for the general election.75

Adams easily won in November, defeating Republican Vince Coakley 75.4%-24.6% in both the special election for the rest of Watt’s term and the election for the full two-year term beginning in January.

69 Jim Morrill, “Mel Watt to resign from Congress Jan. 6,” The Charlotte Observer, December 20, 2013. 70 Jim Morrill, “Mel Watt's seat in Congress to sit empty until November,” Raleigh News and Observer, January 6, 2014. 71 Jim Morrill, “Mel Watt to resign from Congress Jan. 6,” The Charlotte Observer, December 20, 2013. 72 Jim Morrill, “U.S. House 12: Alma Adams wins without runoff,” Charlotte Observer, May 7, 2014. 73 Jim Morrill, “Mel Watt to resign from Congress Jan. 6,” The Charlotte Observer, December 20, 2013. 74 Jim Morrill, “Alma Adams has edge in race for Mel Watt’s seat,” The Charlotte Observer, April 16, 2014. 75 Jim Morrill, “U.S. House 12: Alma Adams wins without runoff,” Charlotte Observer, May 7, 2014.

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NC-12 (Full Term) 2014 Results Registered Total Adams Coakley Other Adams % Coakley % Other % Voters Voters Votes Votes Votes N/A 171,306 129,178 75.4% 42,128 24.6% 0 0.0% Sources: “North Carolina: AP Election Results,” Associated Press, accessed November 5, 2014, at 4:39am

MEDIA SPENDING ANALYSIS

The media spending numbers in this section are from CMAG and consist of broadcast television data only. Costs are estimates as of November 5, 2014. All data is copyright 2014 by Kantar Media Intelligence. All rights reserved.

According to CMAG data there was no broadcast media spending in this race in 2014. STATE LEGISLATURE

Republicans headed into 2014 with comfortable majorities in both chambers and, while Democrats were trying to cut into the large margin that the GOP built up in the 2010 wave elections, Republicans faced serious challenges in only a handful of races around the state. While Republicans held their majorities on Election Day, Democrats were able to make some gains in the state House but failed to break the GOP’s supermajorities.

STATE SENATE Republicans held a comfortable 33-17 lead in the state Senate heading into the election, requiring Democrats to win four seats in order to break the GOP’s supermajority in the chamber Democrats heavily targeted four seats across North Carolina, focusing their efforts on Wake County’s Chad Barefoot, Cumberland County’s Wesley Meredith, and two open seats. Republicans held onto all four of those seats while knocking off Democrat Gene McLaurin in Richmond County. That brought their margin to 34-16, expanding their supermajority.76

76 Laura Leslie, “GOP keeps super-majorities in General Assembly,” WRAL, November 5, 2014.

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Historical Partisanship of North Carolina State Senate77

STATE HOUSE Republicans held a comfortable 77-43 majority in the state House heading into the election, requiring Democrats to win six seats to break the GOP’s supermajority in the chamber. Democrats fell short of this goal, winning just four seats while losing one. Brian Turner defeated Rep. Tim Moffitt in Buncombe County, Gayle Adcock defeated Rep. Tom Murry in Wake County, John Ager defeated Rep. Nathan Ramsey in Buncombe County, and Brad Salmon knocked off Rep. Mike Stone in Harnett and Lee Counties.78 Republicans won a Democratic open seat in Person County, resulting in a net gain of three seats for the House Democrats.79

77 “State Partisan Composition,” National Conference of State Legislatures, June 13, 2014; Laura Leslie, “GOP keeps super- majorities in General Assembly,” WRAL, November 5, 2014. 78 Laura Leslie, “GOP keeps super-majorities in General Assembly,” WRAL, November 5, 2014. 79 Laura Leslie, “GOP keeps super-majorities in General Assembly,” WRAL, November 5, 2014; “”Representative Nathan Ramsey,” North Carolina General Assembly,” accessed November 10, 2014; ”Representative Mike Stone,” North Carolina General Assembly, accessed November 10, 2014.

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Historical Partisanship of North Carolina State House80

CONSEQUENCES The state’s “conservative revolution” took center stage in the Senate race, and while Republicans have total control of the mechanisms of government in Raleigh, there are clearly differences between how Governor Pat McCrory and legislative leaders saw the election. According to political reporter Rob Christensen, the close U.S. Senate race made the McCrory camp incredibly nervous.81 McCrory is expected to face a tough challenge in 2016 from Attorney General Roy Cooper, who has said he wants to “take the state back from the extremists.”82 McCrory has already begun trying to moderate his image in advance of his re-election. Shortly before the 2014 election, he said he was debating an expansion of Medicaid in the state.83

Senate Majority Leader Phil Berger, who has been called “the most powerful politician in North Carolina,” is unlikely to back down from the legislature’s conservative agenda.84 Berger has already hinted that he won’t budge in his opposition to expanding Medicaid.85

80 “State Partisan Composition,” National Conference of State Legislatures, June 13, 2014; Laura Leslie, “GOP keeps super- majorities in General Assembly,” WRAL, November 5, 2014. 81 Rob Christensen, “Christensen: Tillis race should make McCrory nervous,” Raleigh News and Observer, October 18, 2014. 82 Jim Morrill, “Roy Cooper calls Gov. Pat McCrory, GOP lawmakers ‘extremists’,” Charlotte Observer, September 10, 2014. 83 Emery Dalesio, “McCrory says he's assessing NC Medicaid expansion,” Associated Press, October 30, 2014. 84 Jay Price, “Sen. Phil Berger, self-made and self-certain, is likely the most powerful politician in NC,” Raleigh News and Observer, May 10, 2014. 85 Emery Dalesio, “McCrory says he's assessing NC Medicaid expansion,” Associated Press, October 30, 2014.

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