2014 POST-ELECTION ANALYSIS: NORTH CAROLINA TABLE OF CONTENTS STATE OVERVIEW 2 Registration Overview 3 Turnout Analysis 4 Election Law Impacts 4 Exit Polling 5 U.S. SENATE 9 Media Spending Analysis 12 Geographic Analysis 14 CONGRESS 15 NC-12 15 STATE LEGISLATURE 16 State Senate 16 State House 17 Consequences 18 STATE OVERVIEW In 2012, Republicans in North Carolina took complete control of all levels of government for the first time since Reconstruction.1 Republicans pushed through an aggressively conservative agenda in 2013, but progressives pushed back, forming the Moral Monday movement to protest the legislature and GOP overreach.2 North Carolina’s premiere race, the fight for Kay Hagan’s U.S. Senate seat, was greatly impacted by that in-state battle.3 Hagan’s Republican opponent, state House Speaker Thom Tillis, focused on national issues and tried to make his campaign against Hagan into a referendum on President Obama. Hagan worked to make the race about the unpopular legislature and its extreme right-wing policy push, particularly with regard to education.4 Hagan also proved to be an outstanding fundraiser; she and her progressive allies maintained a spending edge on Tillis and his conservative allies throughout the summer.5 The race was heavily targeted by outside groups on both sides and was the most expensive Senate race in history.6 Hagan maintained a slim but solid lead in the polls throughout the fall, but on Election Day Tillis edged her out, winning 49.0% to 47.3%, with Libertarian Sean Haugh getting 3.7%.7 Democrats also targeted a handful of Republican seats in the state Senate and state House, where they needed to pick up seats in each chamber to end Republican supermajorities. However, Republicans managed to add one seat to their state Senate majority, while Democrats won a net of three seats in the state House. Republicans were able to preserve their supermajorities.8 1 “The Decline of North Carolina,” The New York Times, July 9, 2013. 2 Dani McClain, “How the Moral Mondays ‘Fusion Coalition’ Is Taking North Carolina Back,” The Nation, July 1, 2014. 3 Benjy Sarlin, “North Carolina Senate seat may be price of GOP success,” MSNBC, October 13, 2014. 4 Katrina vanden Heuvel, “In N.C., populist mobilization buoys Democrat Kay Hagan,” Washington Post, October 14, 2014. 5 Tarini Parti, “Rand Paul rallies for Greg Brannon in North Carolina,” Politico, May 5, 2014. 6 Benjamin Siegel, “How North Carolina Became the Most Expensive Senate Race Ever,” ABC News, November 3, 2014. 7 “North Carolina: AP Election Results,” Associated Press, accessed November 5, 2014, at 4:39am 8 Laura Leslie, “GOP keeps super-majorities in General Assembly,” WRAL, November 5, 2014. 2 North Carolina 2014 Election Results Dem vs. Incumbent Dem Other Office Democrat Republican GOP % GOP % Party % % Margin U.S Senate Kay Hagan Thom Tillis Democrat 47.3% 49.0% 3.7% -1.7% NC-01 G.K. Butterfield Arthur Rich Democrat 73.3% 26.7% 0.0% 46.6% NC-02 Clay Aiken Renee Elmers Republican 41.1% 58.9% 0.0% -17.8% NC-03 Marshall Adame Walter Jones Republican 32.2% 67.8% 0.0% -35.6% NC-04 David Price Paul Wright Democrat 74.7% 25.3% 0.0% 49.4% NC-05 Joshua Brannon Virginia Foxx Republican 39.0% 61.0% 0.0% -22.0% NC-06 Laura Fjeld Mark Walker Republican 41.3% 58.7% 0.0% -17.4% NC-07 Jonathan Barfield David Rouzer OPEN (D) 37.1% 59.4% 3.5% -22.3% NC-08 Antonio Blue Richard Hudson Republican 35.1% 64.9% 0.0% -29.8% NC-09 N/A Robert Pittenger Republican 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% N/A NC-10 Tate McQueen Patrick McHenry Republican 39.0% 61.0% 0.0% -22.0% NC-11 Tom Hill Mark Meadows Republican 37.1% 62.9% 0.0% -25.8% NC-12 (Unexpired Alma Adams Vince Coakley OPEN (D) 75.4% 24.6% 0.0% 50.8% Term) NC-12 (Full Term) Alma Adams Vince Coakley OPEN (D) 75.4% 24.6% 0.0% 50.8% NC-13 Brenda Cleary George Holding Republican 42.7% 57.3% 0.0% -14.6% State Senate 17 Seats 33 Seats Republican 16 D 34 R 0 R+1 State House 43 Seats 77 Seats Republican 46 D 74 R 0 D+3 Sources: “North Carolina: AP Election Results,” Associated Press, accessed November 5, 2014, at 4:39am; Laura Leslie, “GOP keeps super-majorities in General Assembly,” WRAL, November 5, 2014 REGISTRATION OVERVIEW As in many Southern states, Democrats have long maintained a historic edge in voter registration in North Carolina. That edge has eroded gradually over the last six years, dropping from an 864,253 voter registration advantage in November 2008 to a 755,014 voter advantage in 2014. The share of Republican voters has also dropped over the last six years, while voters who don’t side with either party jumped from 22.3% of voters in 2008 to 27.9% in 2014.9 9 “NC Voter Statistics,” North Carolina Board of Elections, accessed November 4, 2014. 3 North Carolina Voter Registration by Party Other Dem Date Dem Dem % GOP GOP % Other Total % Advantage November 2008 2,866,669 45.7% 2,002,416 32.0% 1,395,648 22.3% 6,264,733 864,253 November 2010 2,769,372 44.7% 1,958,533 31.6% 1,472,920 23.7% 6,200,825 821,839 November 2012 2,870,693 43.1% 2,052,250 30.9% 1,726,245 26.0% 6,649,188 818,443 November 2014 2,767,586 41.7% 2,012,572 30.4% 1,847,233 27.9% 6,627,391 755,014 Change Since 2004 -99,083 -4.0% 10,156 -1.6% 451,585 5.6 362,658 -109,239 Source: “NC Voter Statistics,” North Carolina Board of Elections, accessed November 4, 2014. TURNOUT ANALYSIS Turnout in North Carolina fell 26.3 points between 2008 and 2010, more than the 20.7 point drop-off nationwide. Some of that can be attributed to the fact that North Carolina went from a state that was targeted in the presidential race and had high profile U.S. Senate and gubernatorial races in 2008 to a state that had virtually no truly competitive statewide races in 2010. In 2012, VEP turnout was slightly lower than it had been in 2008 (64.9% to 65.5%), but the drop-off was much less than the national average. Turnout in 2014 was slightly higher than it had been in 2010, reaching 40.7%.10 North Carolina VEP Turnout Since 2008 VEP Highest- VEP Turnout National VEP Year VEP Office Turnout Rate Turnout Rate 2008 6,584,302 4,310,789 65.5% 61.6% 2010 6,787,238 2,660,079 39.2% 40.9% 2012 6,946,385 4,505,372 64.9% 58.0% 2014* 7,132,188 2,900,000 40.7% 36.6% Difference from 2010 344,950 239,921 1.5% -4.3% Difference from 2012 185,803 -1,605,372 -24.2% -21.4% Sources: “Voter Turnout,” United States Elections Project, accessed November 5, 2014. * 2014 VEP turnout is a preliminary estimate from the U.S. Elections Project and should not be viewed as final. ELECTION LAW IMPACTS The Supreme Court’s decision that effectively struck down Section Five of the Voting Rights Act gave North Carolina Republicans the perfect opportunity to rewrite the state’s election laws. Tom Apodaca, the chairman of the state Senate Rules Committee, said Republicans would put together an “omnibus bill with a lot of different election laws and changes in it.”11 He made good on his threat, and in late July 2013 North Carolina Republicans rammed through a 57-page election reform bill that has been called one of most restrictive voting bills in the country.12 When the bill passed the state House, Democrats simply stood, held hands and bowed their heads to express their opposition to the legislation.13 Governor McCrory signed the bill on August 12, 2013. 10 “Voter Turnout,” United States Elections Project, accessed November 5, 2014. 11 Jessica Jones, “Supreme Court Decision Prompts New Look at NC Voting Laws,” WUNC, June 26, 2013. 12 Lauren Williams, “Why North Carolina’s Voter ID Bill Might be the Nation’s Worst,” Mother Jones, July 24, 2013 13 Lynn Bonner, David Perlmutt, Anne Blythe, “NC elections bill headed to governor,” News and Observer, July 26, 2013. 4 North Carolina Policy Watch summarized the bill, which, among other changes such as moving up the state’s presidential primary, would:14 . Cut early voting from 17 days to 10 days . Eliminate straight ticket party voting . End same-day registration during early voting . Ban paid voter registration drives . Prohibit localities from extending hours due to long lines . End pre-registration for 16 and 17 year olds . Authorize expanded party appointed “poll observers” and make it easier for observers to challenge voters . Increase the maximum campaign contribution in the state to $5000 . Weaken disclosure requirements for IE committees The Brennan Center for Justice said that while it was “too early to assess the impact of the law this year” there were widespread problems on Election Day and suggested that the shortened early voting window may have had a role in helping Thom Tillis win the U.S. Senate race.15 EXIT POLLING RACE Exit polls show that statewide Democratic candidates cannot win in North Carolina without significant African American support. For example, in 2008 and 2012, approximately three-quarters of the electorate was white, and these voters did not support Democrats at a high rate.