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North Carolina Senate Poll

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North Carolina Senate Poll FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE Januarry 14, 2014 INTERVIEWS: Tom Jensen 919-744-6312 IF YOU HAVE BASIC METHODOLOGICAL QUESTIONS, PLEASE E-MAIL [email protected], OR CONSULT THE FINAL PARAGRAPH OF THE PRESS RELEASE Tillis expands lead in primary, NC Senate race still looks like toss up Raleigi h, N.C. – For the first time in our polling of the North Carolina Senate race, presumptive frontrunner Thom Tillis has opened a little bit of space between himself and the rest of his opponents in the Republican primary. Tillis now leads the field with 19% to 11% for Greg Brannon and Heather Grant, 8% forr Mark Harris, and 7% for Bill Flynn. Tillis has gained 6 points from his 13% standing a month ago, while Harris has declined by 4 points from the 12% he had previously. Everyone else has more or less stayed in place. The name recognition Tillis gained by being the firstt candidate to run tv ads probably helped drive his increased support this month. 46% of Republican primary voters are familiar with Tillis, compared to less than 30% for everyone else in the field. Tillis is now leading in every region of the state except the Triad, where Flynn is well known from a long radio career. Despite Tillis' increased support this primary would still be headed to a runoff if the election was today. If the undecided voters broke proportionately to their current candidate preferences it would only be enough to get Tillis to 34%%, well short of the 40% needed in North Carolina to win the primary outright. The general election picture has entered into a holding pattern over the last three months, with Kay Hagan trailing her potential Republican opponents by small margins as she continues to suffer from poor approval ratings. 39% of voters in tthe state say they approve of the job Hagan is doing to 49% who disapprove. She has 1 or 2 point deficits against each of her potential GOP foes. She's down by 1 to Heather Grant (42/41) and Thom Tillis (43/42), and trails by 2 against the rest of the field (43/41 against Greg Brannon and Mark Harris, 44/42 against Bill Flynn.) “The North Carolina Senate race continues to look like a toss up,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “It would help Kay Hagan if the electorate shifted its attention to something other than Obamacare.” PPP surveyed 1,384 North Carolina voters, including 575 Republican primary voters, from January 9th-12th. The margin of error for the overall survey is +/- 2.6% and for the Republican primary part it’s +/-4.1%. 80% of interviews for the poll were conducteed over the phone with 20% interviewed over the internet to reach respondents who don’t have landline telephones. Phon e: 888 621-6988 Web: www.publicpolicypolling.com North Carolina Survey Results Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Kay Q7 If the candidates for Senate in 2014 were Hagan’s job performance? Democrat Kay Hagan and Republican Greg Brannon, who would you vote for? Approve .......................................................... 39% Kay Hagan...................................................... 41% Disapprove...................................................... 49% Greg Brannon ................................................. 43% Not sure .......................................................... 13% Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion Not sure .......................................................... 16% of Greg Brannon? Q8 If the candidates for Senate in 2014 were 9% Democrat Kay Hagan and Republican Bill Favorable........................................................ Flynn, who would you vote for? Unfavorable .................................................... 18% Kay Hagan...................................................... 42% Not sure .......................................................... 72% Bill Flynn ......................................................... 44% Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Bill Flynn? Not sure .......................................................... 15% 7% Q9 If the candidates for Senate in 2014 were Favorable........................................................ Democrat Kay Hagan and Republican Heather Unfavorable .................................................... 18% Grant, who would you vote for? Not sure .......................................................... 75% Kay Hagan...................................................... 41% Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion Heather Grant ................................................. 42% of Heather Grant? Not sure .......................................................... 17% 9% Favorable........................................................ Q10 If the candidates for Senate in 2014 were Unfavorable .................................................... 16% Democrat Kay Hagan and Republican Mark Harris, who would you vote for? Not sure .......................................................... 76% 41% Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion Kay Hagan...................................................... of Mark Harris? Mark Harris ..................................................... 43% Favorable........................................................ 9% Not sure .......................................................... 16% Unfavorable .................................................... 16% Q11 If the candidates for Senate in 2014 were 75% Democrat Kay Hagan and Republican Thom Not sure .......................................................... Tillis, who would you vote for? Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Thom Tillis? Kay Hagan...................................................... 42% 43% Favorable........................................................ 15% Thom Tillis ...................................................... 15% Unfavorable .................................................... 28% Not sure .......................................................... Not sure .......................................................... 57% January 9-12, 2014 3020 Highwoods Blvd. Survey of 1,384 North Carolina voters Raleigh, NC 27604 [email protected] / 888 621-6988 Q12 Do you approve or disapprove of the Affordable Q17 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican, Care Act? press 2. If you are an independent or identify with another party, press 3. Approve .......................................................... 38% Democrat ........................................................ 43% Disapprove...................................................... 48% Republican...................................................... 33% Not sure .......................................................... 13% Q13 Do you think the implementation of the Independent/Other.......................................... 23% Affordable Care Act so far has been very Q18 If you are white, press 1. If African-American, successful, somewhat successful, somewhat press 2. If other, press 3. unsuccessful, very unsuccessful, or are you 73% not sure? White .............................................................. African-American ............................................ 21% Very successful............................................... 9% Other............................................................... 6% Somewhat successful ..................................... 23% Q19 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to Somewhat unsuccessful ................................. 17% 45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are 65 Very unsuccessful........................................... 44% or older, press 4. 12% Not sure .......................................................... 7% 18 to 29........................................................... Q14 In the last presidential election, did you vote for 30 to 45........................................................... 26% Barack Obama or Mitt Romney? 46 to 65........................................................... 41% Barack Obama................................................ 47% Older than 65 .................................................. 21% Mitt Romney.................................................... 47% Q20 Area Code 6% Someone else/Don't remember ...................... 252.................................................................. 11% Q15 Would you describe yourself as very liberal, 18% somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat 336.................................................................. conservative, or very conservative? 704.................................................................. 14% Very liberal...................................................... 10% 828.................................................................. 12% Somewhat liberal ............................................ 16% 910.................................................................. 11% Moderate......................................................... 32% 919.................................................................. 15% Somewhat conservative.................................. 25% Internet ........................................................... 20% Very conservative ........................................... 17% Q21 Mode Q16 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2. Phone ............................................................. 80% Woman ........................................................... 53% Internet ........................................................... 20% Man................................................................
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