COUNTRY RE PORT Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung e.V.

EUROPEAN OFFICE, BRUSSELS UKRAINE OFFICE OLIVER MORWINSKY MORITZ JUNGINGER Referendum in the April 2016 A VOTE ON THE EU OR A VOTE ON THE EUROPEAN PATH OF UKRAINE? www.kas.de/bruessel www.kas.de/ukraine On 6 April the Netherlands will be holding question on their voting papers: "Do you sup-

a referendum on the EU Association port or oppose the law that approves the As-

Agreement with Ukraine. The latest polls sociation Agreement between the European are showing a small lead for the oppo- Union and Ukraine?" The Agreement was

nents of the Agreement, but many voters signed in June 2015 and the majority of its remain undecided. While opponents of the provisions came into force on 1 January 2016. Agreement are driven by Euroscepticism A vote is being held on the Association and political disaffection, many observers Agreement because the ratification of this are warning that the referendum could Agreement is the first opportunity to put the send a negative political signal on the Eu- new "referendum law" into practice. Some ob- ropean Union and Ukraine's European servers think the role of Ukraine in the refer- path. endum is "tragic" as it could have been trig- gered by any other law. But it is rather con- On 6 April 2016 the Netherlands will vote in a venient for Eurosceptic groups – particularly consultative referendum on the free trade the GeenPeil1 grouping comprising the right- agreement with Ukraine. But the referendum wing blog GeenStijl and the two Eurosceptic is less about the EU's Association Agreement organisations and Citi- with Ukraine than about Euroscepticism, EU zen Committee EU – that they have implicitly expansion fatigue and political disaffection. been given an opportunity to vote on the Eu- Some of the referendum's Eurosceptic initia- ropean Union. The group rapidly acquired tors are organising an active “No” campaign to more than 427,000 signatures. This topic is reject the Agreement. In Brussels and The particularly controversial at the moment be- Hague, there is no unified view about the legal cause the Netherlands currently holds the and political consequences of rejecting the Presidency of the European Council (until 30 Agreement. While Jean-Claude Juncker warns June 2016). This means the country has a of a "continental crisis" for Europe that particularly prominent role to play. equates to an "easy victory" for Russia, others

suggest that it will simply be necessary to Euroscepticism, political disaffection and make a technical modification to the Agree- Ukraine's tarnished image ment, which has already provisionally come into force. The last 30 years have seen an increase in Eurosceptic sentiments, despite the fact that More or less Europe, and the tragic role of the Netherlands was one of the EU's founding Ukraine members. This was made particularly clear in the 2005 referendum on the European Consti- Since 1 July 2015, Dutch citizens are in a posi- tution. Many politicians remember all too well tion to call for referendums on national laws shortly after they have been passed by par- liament. A referendum is allowed if a petition 1 GeenPeil has for the first time become visible in is submitted containing 300,000 signatures of 2014 during the European Parliament elections. The Dutch nationals. This right will be applied for right-wing blog GeenStijl, which stands behind Geen- the first time on 6 April 2016. On this day, Peil, is frequently criticized for publishing highly of- fensive content. Dutch citizens will be asked the following

2

Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung e.V. how the Dutch voted No, and fear this could its campaign. It was only in January 2016 that be repeated in 2016. On 6 April many voters Prime Minister Mark Rutte of the Volkspartij EUROPEAN OFFICE, BRUSSELS will not feel they are voting on an abstract voor Vrijheid en Democratie (VVD) announced UKRAINE OFFICE agreement with what they perceive as far-off that the Dutch government would be cam- OLIVER MORWINSKY Ukraine. Instead, they will feel they are voting paigning in favour of the Agreement. But he MORITZ JUNGINGER on whether they want less or more Europe. also made it clear that the government would not be actively campaigning, saying: "We are But to the extent that Ukraine plays a role in April 2016 not going to hit the road with flags and bells". this referendum, for many Dutch people it has A government strategy paper that was leaked a negative image. When they think of Ukraine, www.kas.de/bruessel in February also recommends focusing on the they think of the war in Donbass, the downing trade benefits and avoiding any mention of of Malaysia Airlines flight 17, killing all 192 the conflict between Ukraine and Russia. Dutch passengers on board, and the general problem of corruption and unstable govern- The Dutch parties have taken clear positions: ment. This negative image has been intensi- Geert Wilder's right-wing Partij voor de Vrij- fied by the fact that the paintings stolen from heid (PCC), the Socialistische Partij (SP) and a Dutch museum 10 years ago turned up in the Partij voor de Dieren (PvdD) are all Eastern Ukraine in December 2015. against. The other parties represented in par- liament – VVD, Partij vaan de Arbeid (PvdA), The trend has also been fuelled by an obvious- Christen Democratisch Appèl (CDA), Democ- ly fake video purported to be from the Ukrain- raten66 (D66), Christen Unie (CU), ian volunteer battalion Asov, in which armed, GroenLinks, Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij masked men threaten the Netherlands with (SGP) and 50Plus all voted in favour of the EU retribution if they vote against the EU Associa- Association Agreement in June 2015. But they tion Agreement. Many observers suspect the fear it will backfire on them if they publicly Russians were behind this video, but this has campaign for the Agreement. "People no long- not been proven. According to media reports, er believe us", said one party official. the US intelligence services have also voiced their suspicions that Russia manipulated the The result of the referendum will not only re- initiators of the referendum. veal what voters think about the Agreement, but above all it will demonstrate the ability of In this morass of rumours it not surprising politicians to mobilise support. There are three that so many Dutch people fear the EU Asso- general trends among voters: ciation Agreement will lead to Ukraine joining the , with all the attendant 1. The older people are, the more likely images of floods of migrant workers. It has they are to oppose the Agreement. somehow failed to get through that the 2. The younger people are, the less they Agreement has nothing to do with Ukrainian know about the Agreement. accession, and that it does not open up the

European labour market to Ukrainian workers. 3. The more educated people are, the In March, President of the European Commis- more likely they are to vote for the Agree- sion Jean-Claude Juncker found himself forced ment. to underline the fact that Ukraine will not be joining the EU or NATO within the next 20-25 Overall, opponents of the Agreement are bet- years. ter organised and more inclined to vote. The polls show that 61% of Dutch people who are The position of the political parties and the generally Eurosceptic will vote against the voting behaviour of their supporters Agreement. EU supporters have more of a problem, with 36% in favour of the Agree- Despite this difficult mood, the “Yes” ment and 28% against. campaign in civil society has been intensifying in the run-up to the referendum, led by the Large numbers of voters know very little Stem Voor group. Faced with the "No" camp's about the content of the Agreement. It is true harsh criticism of the political establishment, that the number of people who at least know the Dutch government waited a long time be- that a referendum is being held went up from fore clearly stating its position and launching

3

Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung e.V. 49% at the beginning of March to 80% by the were no longer signatories to the Association end of March 2016, but predictions of the out- Agreement. This would mean that the rela- EUROPEAN OFFICE, BRUSSELS come remain inconclusive. The polls are pre- tively few rulings that are purely within na- UKRAINE OFFICE dicting that the “No” vote will be between tional jurisdiction, such as on employee mobil- OLIVER MORWINSKY 25% and 35%, and only 25% of people are ity (Art. 18) or the application of import duties MORITZ JUNGINGER well-informed about the content of the actual on agricultural products based on the WTO Agreement. Agreement (Art. 40), would not come into April 2016 force between the Netherlands and Ukraine. This is because it has been given little cover-

age in the media – less than a quarter of the Ukraine's path to Europe: "This is what we www.kas.de/bruessel population have specifically listened to or read fought for on Maidan!"

a report about the referendum. To some ex- The 1,200 pages of the EU Association tent, the public's lack of knowledge is also due Agreement may be viewed by most citizens of to the government’s and political parties’ lim- the Netherlands and the European Union as ited efforts, who have basically done the bare being dry and unexciting, but for Ukraine the minimum. They are still hoping that the refer- Agreement is extremely significant and also endum will fail to achieve the required 30% harbours emotional elements. Representatives turnout, and that voters will accept their ra- of civil society and the government all clearly tional argument that the Agreement is good state that their protests on Maidan during the for Europe and therefore good for the Nether- winter of 2013-2014 were based on a desire lands. It remains to be seen whether it is suf- to build closer ties with Europe. It was former ficient for the parties to hope for a low turnout President Victor Yanukovych's refusal to sign and the persuasive power of their rational ar- the EU Association Agreement that triggered gument. months of demonstrations and led to the The view from Brussels and hopes of a deaths of more than 100 people. After the end technical solution of the Yanukovych regime, the new, pro- European government worked hard to ad- In Brussels there is no common position on vance the Agreement. Recent polls show that the referendum. Overall, it appears to have 68% of Ukrainians support the EU Association been severely underestimated, or at least this Agreement. is what is being whispered in the corridors of European institutions. The Dutch referendum Ukrainian politicians are working to support has been overshadowed by the migration cri- the Association Agreement in the Netherlands sis and the Brexit issue. At first no-one be- and are calling on people to show solidarity lieved that the required amount of signatures with Ukraine. In November 2015 Ukrainian would be gathered, and now it is hoped that President Petro Poroschenko held talks with the turnout at the referendum will be below the Dutch government and spoke to students the necessary 30%. But many still believe it at the University of Leiden. Volodymyr will be possible to find a technical solution, Groysman, the President of the Ukrainian Par- even if the vote goes against the Agreement. liament, visited the Netherlands in March and Ukrainian Foreign Minister Pavlo Klimkin is ex- In fact, experts believe there will be few legal pected at the beginning of April. Ukrainian pol- consequences. Only 30% of the provisions of iticians are convinced that the Dutch govern- the Agreement fall under national jurisdiction, ment supports Ukraine in the referendum. In with the remaining 70% within EU compe- order to improve Ukraine's image in the eyes tence particularly with regard to free trade of Dutch voters, the Klitschko brothers visited issues. The Agreement was passed by the Eu- the Netherlands at the end of March. They ap- ropean Parliament on 16 September 2014, so peared on chat shows and gave interviews in it is questionable whether a rejection would the Dutch media, in which they asked the actually have much effect. Legally, it would be Dutch people to show their support for a dem- possible to draw up some kind of adjustment ocratic, stable Ukraine. protocol, similar to that produced for Switzer- land when the European Economic Area was But at the same time, Ukrainian politicians set up in 1990. It would mean that the Dutch and high-ranking representatives have found

4

Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung e.V. they have limited room for manoeuvre, as if the government and highlight the growing they get too involved it could be interpreted as popularity of the Eurosceptic parties. EUROPEAN OFFICE, BRUSSELS meddling. So the Ukrainian "Yes" campaign is Rejection of the EU Association Agreement UKRAINE OFFICE concentrating on representatives of Ukrainian would have a clear symbolic impact that would OLIVER MORWINSKY civil society. The Ukrainian diaspora in the resonate beyond the borders of the Nether- MORITZ JUNGINGER Netherlands has set up the Oekraine- lands. It would be political dynamite if the Referendum website to explain the Association vote implicitly went against the European Un- April 2016 Agreement in simple language and argue in ion and closer ties with Ukraine at a time favour of the "Yes" vote. when the Netherlands holds the Presidency of www.kas.de/bruessel Ukrainian intellectuals have come together the European Council. With regard to the ref-

with heads of leading think tanks and NGOs in erendum on whether the United Kingdom will

Ukraine to proclaim their support for the "Yes" remain in the European Union, to be held on campaign. Video clips about Ukraine, such as 23 June 2016, observers assume that a Dutch "Hop, Nederland, hop!" and "Tak is Ja", have refusal would provide additional stimulus for been spreading on social media. Ukrainian civil the Brexit campaign in the UK. Other Euro- society has set itself a strategic goal: even if sceptic parties and groups in the EU could also the Agreement is rejected, the campaign is to use such a result to boost their campaigns. give Dutch people a better understanding of Apart from Juncker's warning about a victory Ukraine and provide a foundation for closer for Russia – for Moscow the Agreement has future relations. long been a thorn in the side and it has al- As a result, they are fairly relaxed about the ready suspended free trade with Ukraine as a possibility of a negative result. Over recent consequence – a rejection would also be a weeks the Ukrainian media has prepared manifestation of lack of support for the Euro- Ukrainians for the possibility that the Agree- pean path of Ukraine. There is no doubt that ment could be rejected. In this case, the For- the EU will continue to support Ukraine what- eign Ministry also believes it will be possible to ever the outcome of the referendum, but its find a technical solution. symbolic effect on the European Union's for- eign affairs, particularly with regard to the Far-reaching political consequences Eastern Partnership, should not be underesti- Along with the possibility of a technical solu- mated. tion, the fact that the referendum is non-

binding also seems to reduce its significance. The Dutch government is not obliged to im- plement the result. Indeed, the referendum on the European Constitution in 2005 was not legally binding either. But in conjunction with the French rejection, the Dutch "No" vote had sufficient political clout to effectively prevent ratification and plunge the EU into a deep po- litical crisis. 48% of Dutch people believe the government should abide by the result of the 6 April referendum, whereas 41% think it should be up to the government to make its own decision. However, experts suggest that politicians will find it difficult to go against the will of the people if there is a high turnout and a clear "No" vote.

Domestically, the referendum can be viewed as an indicator of trends in the run-up to the Dutch parliamentary elections, planned for March 2017. If the EU Association Agreement is rejected, this will signal a lack of support for