COUNTRY RE PORT Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung e.V. EUROPEAN OFFICE, BRUSSELS UKRAINE OFFICE OLIVER MORWINSKY MORITZ JUNGINGER Referendum in the Netherlands April 2016 A VOTE ON THE EU OR A VOTE ON THE EUROPEAN PATH OF UKRAINE? www.kas.de/bruessel www.kas.de/ukraine On 6 April the Netherlands will be holding question on their voting papers: "Do you sup- a referendum on the EU Association port or oppose the law that approves the As- Agreement with Ukraine. The latest polls sociation Agreement between the European are showing a small lead for the oppo- Union and Ukraine?" The Agreement was nents of the Agreement, but many voters signed in June 2015 and the majority of its remain undecided. While opponents of the provisions came into force on 1 January 2016. Agreement are driven by Euroscepticism A vote is being held on the Association and political disaffection, many observers Agreement because the ratification of this are warning that the referendum could Agreement is the first opportunity to put the send a negative political signal on the Eu- new "referendum law" into practice. Some ob- ropean Union and Ukraine's European servers think the role of Ukraine in the refer- path. endum is "tragic" as it could have been trig- gered by any other law. But it is rather con- On 6 April 2016 the Netherlands will vote in a venient for Eurosceptic groups – particularly consultative referendum on the free trade the GeenPeil1 grouping comprising the right- agreement with Ukraine. But the referendum wing blog GeenStijl and the two Eurosceptic is less about the EU's Association Agreement organisations Forum for Democracy and Citi- with Ukraine than about Euroscepticism, EU zen Committee EU – that they have implicitly expansion fatigue and political disaffection. been given an opportunity to vote on the Eu- Some of the referendum's Eurosceptic initia- ropean Union. The group rapidly acquired tors are organising an active “No” campaign to more than 427,000 signatures. This topic is reject the Agreement. In Brussels and The particularly controversial at the moment be- Hague, there is no unified view about the legal cause the Netherlands currently holds the and political consequences of rejecting the Presidency of the European Council (until 30 Agreement. While Jean-Claude Juncker warns June 2016). This means the country has a of a "continental crisis" for Europe that particularly prominent role to play. equates to an "easy victory" for Russia, others suggest that it will simply be necessary to Euroscepticism, political disaffection and make a technical modification to the Agree- Ukraine's tarnished image ment, which has already provisionally come into force. The last 30 years have seen an increase in Eurosceptic sentiments, despite the fact that More or less Europe, and the tragic role of the Netherlands was one of the EU's founding Ukraine members. This was made particularly clear in the 2005 referendum on the European Consti- Since 1 July 2015, Dutch citizens are in a posi- tution. Many politicians remember all too well tion to call for referendums on national laws shortly after they have been passed by par- liament. A referendum is allowed if a petition 1 GeenPeil has for the first time become visible in is submitted containing 300,000 signatures of 2014 during the European Parliament elections. The Dutch nationals. This right will be applied for right-wing blog GeenStijl, which stands behind Geen- the first time on 6 April 2016. On this day, Peil, is frequently criticized for publishing highly of- fensive content. Dutch citizens will be asked the following 2 Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung e.V. how the Dutch voted No, and fear this could its campaign. It was only in January 2016 that be repeated in 2016. On 6 April many voters Prime Minister Mark Rutte of the Volkspartij EUROPEAN OFFICE, BRUSSELS will not feel they are voting on an abstract voor Vrijheid en Democratie (VVD) announced UKRAINE OFFICE agreement with what they perceive as far-off that the Dutch government would be cam- OLIVER MORWINSKY Ukraine. Instead, they will feel they are voting paigning in favour of the Agreement. But he MORITZ JUNGINGER on whether they want less or more Europe. also made it clear that the government would not be actively campaigning, saying: "We are But to the extent that Ukraine plays a role in April 2016 not going to hit the road with flags and bells". this referendum, for many Dutch people it has A government strategy paper that was leaked a negative image. When they think of Ukraine, www.kas.de/bruessel in February also recommends focusing on the they think of the war in Donbass, the downing trade benefits and avoiding any mention of of Malaysia Airlines flight 17, killing all 192 the conflict between Ukraine and Russia. Dutch passengers on board, and the general problem of corruption and unstable govern- The Dutch parties have taken clear positions: ment. This negative image has been intensi- Geert Wilder's right-wing Partij voor de Vrij- fied by the fact that the paintings stolen from heid (PCC), the Socialistische Partij (SP) and a Dutch museum 10 years ago turned up in the Partij voor de Dieren (PvdD) are all Eastern Ukraine in December 2015. against. The other parties represented in par- liament – VVD, Partij vaan de Arbeid (PvdA), The trend has also been fuelled by an obvious- Christen Democratisch Appèl (CDA), Democ- ly fake video purported to be from the Ukrain- raten66 (D66), Christen Unie (CU), ian volunteer battalion Asov, in which armed, GroenLinks, Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij masked men threaten the Netherlands with (SGP) and 50Plus all voted in favour of the EU retribution if they vote against the EU Associa- Association Agreement in June 2015. But they tion Agreement. Many observers suspect the fear it will backfire on them if they publicly Russians were behind this video, but this has campaign for the Agreement. "People no long- not been proven. According to media reports, er believe us", said one party official. the US intelligence services have also voiced their suspicions that Russia manipulated the The result of the referendum will not only re- initiators of the referendum. veal what voters think about the Agreement, but above all it will demonstrate the ability of In this morass of rumours it not surprising politicians to mobilise support. There are three that so many Dutch people fear the EU Asso- general trends among voters: ciation Agreement will lead to Ukraine joining the European Union, with all the attendant 1. The older people are, the more likely images of floods of migrant workers. It has they are to oppose the Agreement. somehow failed to get through that the 2. The younger people are, the less they Agreement has nothing to do with Ukrainian know about the Agreement. accession, and that it does not open up the European labour market to Ukrainian workers. 3. The more educated people are, the In March, President of the European Commis- more likely they are to vote for the Agree- sion Jean-Claude Juncker found himself forced ment. to underline the fact that Ukraine will not be joining the EU or NATO within the next 20-25 Overall, opponents of the Agreement are bet- years. ter organised and more inclined to vote. The polls show that 61% of Dutch people who are The position of the political parties and the generally Eurosceptic will vote against the voting behaviour of their supporters Agreement. EU supporters have more of a problem, with 36% in favour of the Agree- Despite this difficult mood, the “Yes” ment and 28% against. campaign in civil society has been intensifying in the run-up to the referendum, led by the Large numbers of voters know very little Stem Voor group. Faced with the "No" camp's about the content of the Agreement. It is true harsh criticism of the political establishment, that the number of people who at least know the Dutch government waited a long time be- that a referendum is being held went up from fore clearly stating its position and launching 3 Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung e.V. 49% at the beginning of March to 80% by the were no longer signatories to the Association end of March 2016, but predictions of the out- Agreement. This would mean that the rela- EUROPEAN OFFICE, BRUSSELS come remain inconclusive. The polls are pre- tively few rulings that are purely within na- UKRAINE OFFICE dicting that the “No” vote will be between tional jurisdiction, such as on employee mobil- OLIVER MORWINSKY 25% and 35%, and only 25% of people are ity (Art. 18) or the application of import duties MORITZ JUNGINGER well-informed about the content of the actual on agricultural products based on the WTO Agreement. Agreement (Art. 40), would not come into April 2016 force between the Netherlands and Ukraine. This is because it has been given little cover- age in the media – less than a quarter of the Ukraine's path to Europe: "This is what we www.kas.de/bruessel population have specifically listened to or read fought for on Maidan!" a report about the referendum. To some ex- The 1,200 pages of the EU Association tent, the public's lack of knowledge is also due Agreement may be viewed by most citizens of to the government’s and political parties’ lim- the Netherlands and the European Union as ited efforts, who have basically done the bare being dry and unexciting, but for Ukraine the minimum. They are still hoping that the refer- Agreement is extremely significant and also endum will fail to achieve the required 30% harbours emotional elements.