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Mediatek Inc 01 May 2015 Asia Pacific/Taiwan Equity Research Semiconductor Devices MediaTek Inc. (2454.TW / 2454 TT) Rating NEUTRAL* Price (30 Apr 15, NT$) 395.00 RESULTS Target price (NT$) 405.00¹ Upside/downside (%) 2.5 Mkt cap (NT$ mn) 708,117 (US$ 23,121) 2Q lacks growth, but a high bar is set for 2H Enterprise value (NT$ mn) 544,619 ■ 1Q15 results in line with CS, but below street. 1Q15 sales were already Number of shares (mn) 1,792.70 Free float (%) 89.1 reported at NT$47.5 bn, -14.3% QoQ. Smartphone shipments were 85 mn 52-week price range 535.0 - 390.0 (30mn LTE), down from 95-100mn in 4Q14 due to seasonality and emerging ADTO - 6M (US$ mn) 101.0 market weakness. GMs met our 47.3% vs 46-48% guidance and OpM was also *Stock ratings are relative to the coverage universe in each analyst's or each team's respective sector. in line at 16.1% on cost controls. Lower non-op income kept EPS only in line ¹Target price is for 12 months. with our NT$4.62 and below street's NT$4.97. Research Analysts ■ 2Q15 guidance below, inventory elevated. Sales were guided -5% to +3% Randy Abrams, CFA QoQ, below CS/street's +9%/+18% QoQ on 3G price pressure and 4G mix 886 2 2715 6366 [email protected] skewed to the entry level. Margins are in line, with GMs at 45.5-47.5% and Nickie Yue OpM at 12.5-16.5%. Inventory is elevated, at 102 days and guided to stay 886 2 2715 6364 98-110 days in 2Q15, requiring 2H15 acceleration. [email protected] ■ 2H15 bar still set high. Despite 1H weakness, Mediatek maintained the 450 mn smartphone target for 2015, requiring +57% 1H/2H ramp from 175 mn to 275 mn and 50% QoQ growth in 3Q15 to 135-140 mn vs 4Q seasonally of flat to down. Mediatek maintains a floor on GMs at 45-46%, with 2H15 support from refreshed high-tier (Helio X120), mid-range (MT6735/M and MT6753) and 3G entry tier products (MT6580). Management acknowledged sales falling to the low-end of its +10-20% 2015 sales target and trimmed opex from +20% YoY to 15-17% YoY. ■ Maintain low-end estimates, street finally to adjust. We keep our toned down view and well below street estimates at NT$23.50/NT$27 balancing acceleration on the entry-level LTE with pricing pressure and unit slowdown on 3G, still a drag at 65-70% of volumes. The street likely makes sharp adjustments from optimistic expectations, so we would get constructive with a sharp reset and evidence of a better 4G inflection that can turn around sales/margins. Share price performance Financial and valuation metrics Year 12/14A 12/15E 12/16E 12/17E Price (LHS) Rebased Rel (RHS) Revenue (NT$ mn) 213,062.9 220,271.4 239,732.2 258,966.0 600 140 EBITDA (NT$ mn) 50,007.1 42,429.5 48,486.8 54,124.1 500 120 400 EBIT (NT$ mn) 47,241.3 39,649.3 45,687.1 51,321.5 300 100 200 80 Net profit (NT$ mn) 45,356.5 36,726.1 42,204.9 49,839.4 EPS (CS adj.) (NT$) 29.40 23.50 27.00 31.89 Change from previous EPS (%) n.a. -0.0 0 Consensus EPS (NT$) n.a. 29.1 32.8 34.2 The price relative chart measures performance against the EPS growth (%) 46.1 -20.1 14.9 18.1 TAIWAN SE WEIGHTED INDEX which closed at 9820.05 on P/E (x) 13.4 16.8 14.6 12.4 30/04/15 On 30/04/15 the spot exchange rate was NT$30.63/US$1 Dividend yield (%) 3.8 5.6 4.5 5.1 EV/EBITDA (x) 10.7 12.8 10.8 9.3 Performance Over 1M 3M 12M P/B (x) 2.5 2.7 2.5 2.4 Absolute (%) -6.7 -18.2 -16.3 ROE (%) 20.5 15.4 17.9 19.7 Relative (%) -9.2 -23.1 -28.0 Net debt/equity (%) net cash net cash net cash net cash Source: Company data, Thomson Reuters, Credit Suisse estimates. DISCLOSURE APPENDIX AT THE BACK OF THIS REPORT CONTAINS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS, AND THE STATUS OF NON-US ANALYSTS. US Disclosure: Credit Suisse does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the Firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. CREDIT SUISSE SECURITIES RESEARCH & ANALYTICS BEYOND INFORMATION® Client-Driven Solutions, Insights, and Access 01 May 2015 Focus charts Figure 1: Mediatek 1Q15—3Q15 and 2015/2016 estimates in millions, unless otherwise stated 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 2015 2016 2017 (NT$ mn) Actual CS(old) Street Guidance CS CS(old) Street Guidance CS CS(old) Street CS CS(old) Street CS CS(old) Street Sales $47,536 $47,535 $47,914 NT$45.5-49.9bn $48,217 $51,855 $56,426 NT$45.2-49bn $60,388 $61,844 $66,735 $220,271 $224,731 $237,082 $239,732 $247,330 $261,280 Chg -14.3% -14.3% -13.6% 10% to -18% 1.4% 9.1% 17.8% -5% to +3% 25.2% 19.3% 18.3% 3.4% 5.5% 11.2% 8.8% 10.1% 10.2% GM% 47.3% 47.3% 47.0% 46-48% 46.5% 45.5% 46.7% 45.5-47.5% 46.5% 45.5% 47.5% 46.7% 46.0% 47.2% 46.7% 46.6% 46.7% R&D 10,851 11,982 Opex 30-34% 11,394 12,587 12,533 13,216 47,561 51,266 49,333 55,827 SG&A 3,976 3,548 3,900 3,726 3,939 3,912 15,745 15,176 17,021 16,405 OpM% 16.1% 14.6% 16.2% 12-18% 14.8% 14.0% 18.5% 12-17% 19.2% 17.8% 20.9% 18.0% 16.4% 19.6% 19.1% 17.4% 20.0% Net Inc. 7,226 7,247 7,761 NT$31.5 6,509 7,232 10,239 NT$30.7 10,689 10,799 13,628 36,726 36,737 45,256 42,205 42,208 50,472 EPS (NT$) $4.62 $4.64 $4.95 $4.16 $4.63 $6.49 $6.84 $6.91 $8.72 $23.50 $23.50 $28.57 $27.00 $27.00 $32.08 Source: the BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONAL™ service consensus, Company data, Credit Suisse estimates Figure 2: Mediatek 2G/3G/LTE units vs ASPs Figure 3: Mediatek 2G/3G/LTE sales vs margins Units (mn) ASPs (US$) Sales (NT$mn) GM (%) 150 $25 32,500 65% 30,000 60% 27,500 55% 120 $20 25,000 50% 22,500 45% 90 $15 20,000 40% 17,500 35% 15,000 30% 60 $10 12,500 25% 10,000 20% 30 $5 7,500 15% 5,000 10% 2,500 5% 0 $0 0 0% 1Q06 3Q08 3Q06 1Q07 3Q07 1Q08 1Q09 3Q09 1Q10 3Q10 1Q11 3Q11 1Q12 3Q12 1Q13 3Q13 1Q14 3Q14 1Q15 3Q14 1Q04 3Q04 1Q05 3Q05 1Q06 3Q06 1Q07 3Q07 1Q08 3Q08 1Q09 3Q09 1Q10 3Q10 1Q11 3Q11 1Q12 3Q12 1Q13 3Q13 1Q14 1Q15 3Q15E 3Q15E 1Q16E 3Q16E 2G units 3G (WCDMA+TD) units LTE units 2G sales 3G (WCDMA+TD) sales LTE sales 2G ASPs 3G ASPs LTE ASPs Blended ASPs 3G GM % LTE GM % Corporate GM % Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimates Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimates Figure 4: MTK building inventory banking on a strong 2H Figure 5: Mediatek handset assumptions for 2012–17F Inventory Inventory Days NT$mn unless noted 2013 2014 2015F Prior 2016F 2017F (NT$mn) 3G Smartphones (mn) 223.2 324.5 259.8 260.1 237.7 207.2 35,000 120 4G Smartphones (mn) 0.0 31.8 160.1 160.0 254.5 355.6 30,000 100 Smartphones (mn) 223.2 356.4 419.8 420.1 492.2 562.9 25,000 80 ASPs (US$) $9.93 $10.25 $9.66 $9.67 $9.38 $9.21 20,000 Tablets (mn) 21.9 41.3 45.1 45.1 50.1 54.7 60 15,000 ASPs (US$) $12.28 $10.94 $10.18 $10.18 $10.00 $9.80 Handset/Tablet Sales 93,424 138,934 150,586 153,450 166,987 183,350 40 10,000 Smartphone % of sales 47.7% 50.9% 56.9% 56.3% 59.1% 61.5% 5,000 20 Tablet % of sales 5.8% 6.3% 6.4% 6.4% 6.4% 6.3% Total Sales 135,968 213,062 220,271 224,731 239,732 258,966 - 0 GM % 44.0% 48.8% 46.7% 46.0% 46.7% 47.0% Op M% 18.6% 22.2% 18.0% 16.4% 19.1% 19.8% 2Q00 1Q07 4Q13 1Q01 4Q01 3Q02 2Q03 1Q04 4Q04 3Q05 2Q06 4Q07 3Q08 2Q09 1Q10 4Q10 3Q11 2Q12 1Q13 3Q14 2Q15E EPS $20.13 $29.40 $23.50 $23.50 $27.00 $31.89 Inventory Inventory Days EPS growth 57.1% 46.1% -20.1% -20.1% 14.9% 18.1% Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimates Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimates Figure 6: Feature phone HoH momentum slowed as units Figure 7: Implied guidance suggests that 2H15 will have increased to rebound to +57% HoH from last year's +18% HoH Feature phone units (mn) HoH (%) Smartphone units (mn) HoH (%) 600.0 120% 600.0 160% 100% 140% 500.0 500.0 80% 120% 400.0 400.0 60% 100% 300.0 40% 300.0 80% 20% 60% 200.0 200.0 0% 40% 100.0 100.0 -20% 20% 0.0 -40% 0.0 0% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Implied 2015 Feature Phone Units HoH Growth Smartphone units HoH Growth Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimates Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimates MediaTek Inc.
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