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Library Note Debate on 27 February: Syria and the Middle East This Library Note provides background reading in advance of the debate in the House of Lords on 27 February 2014 on recent developments in Syria and the Middle East. It provides in-depth information and material on Syria, and a brief summary of recent developments in selected countries in the Middle East (Yemen, Iran, Israel/Palestine, Lebanon, the Gulf States, Egypt and Jordan). This Note adds to and updates information provided in the House of Lords Library Notes Recent Developments in the Middle East (13 July 2012, LLN 2012/029) and Recent Developments in Syria, the Middle East and North Africa (27 June 2013, LLN 2013/017). Thomas Brown, Edward Scott, Mary Santo and James Tobin 13 February 2014 LLN 2014/006 House of Lords Library Notes are compiled for the benefit of Members of the House of Lords and their personal staff, to provide impartial, politically balanced briefing on subjects likely to be of interest to Members of the Lords. Authors are available to discuss the contents of the Notes with the Members and their staff but cannot advise members of the general public. Any comments on Library Notes should be sent to the Head of Research Services, House of Lords Library, London SW1A 0PW or emailed to [email protected]. Table of Contents 1. Introduction .................................................................................................................................................. 1 2. Syria ................................................................................................................................................................ 1 2.1 Current Nature of the Conflict ..................................................................................................... 1 2.2 Who are the Rebels? ........................................................................................................................ 3 2.3 Use of Chemical Weapons ............................................................................................................. 6 2.4 Support for the Rebels ..................................................................................................................... 8 2.5 Humanitarian Response ................................................................................................................. 10 2.6 Geneva Peace Talks ........................................................................................................................ 13 2.7 Timeline of Recent Events (2008—Present) ............................................................................. 14 3. Yemen .......................................................................................................................................................... 19 4. Iran ................................................................................................................................................................ 20 5. Israel/Palestine ............................................................................................................................................ 21 6. Lebanon ....................................................................................................................................................... 22 7. The Gulf States ........................................................................................................................................... 23 8. Egypt ............................................................................................................................................................. 24 9. Jordan ........................................................................................................................................................... 25 Appendix .......................................................................................................................................................... 27 1. Introduction This Library Note provides background information in advance of the debate in the House of Lords on 27 February 2014 on Syria and the Middle East. However, given the size of the region and the speed with which developments are unfolding in many countries, it is not possible to provide comprehensive, up-to-date briefing on all the issues that fall within the scope of this debate. As a result, this Note provides in-depth material on Syria and a brief summary of recent developments in selected other nations (Yemen, Iran, Israel/Palestine, Lebanon, the Gulf States, Egypt and Jordan); adding to and updating information provided in the House of Lords Library Notes Recent Developments in the Middle East (13 July 2012, LLN 2012/029) and Recent Developments in Syria, the Middle East and North Africa (27 June 2013, LLN 2013/017). 2. Syria The conflict in Syria, which began in March 2011 with national protests against the Ba’athist Government of President Bashar al-Assad, has now been raging for almost three years. Originating in the southern city of Deraa, protests calling for political reform and the release of political prisoners quickly spread to towns and cities across the country, including Baniyas, Homs, Hama and the suburbs of Damascus. The unrest soon evolved into a civil war between government forces and an array of rebel militias. In July 2013, the United Nations (UN) estimated that more than 100,000 people have been killed during the conflict. The UN no longer releases estimates of the number of fatalities. However, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a group which monitors and documents human rights abuses in the country, believes that up to 31 January 2014 more than 136,000 people have lost their lives. According to the UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), more than 2.4 million Syrian people have been driven into neighbouring countries as a result of the violence (out of a total Syrian population of over 22 million), with over 47,000 people still awaiting registration as refugees.1 The UN further estimated that more than 6.5 million people—46 percent of whom are children—are ‘internally displaced persons’.2 It also recorded that more than 9.3 million people are in urgent need of aid inside Syria.3 2.1 Current Nature of the Conflict As of February 2014, heavy fighting continues across the country, with government forces and their allies battling a range of anti-government militias, some of whom are also reportedly fighting amongst themselves. Recent analysis by the Congressional Research Service (CRS) provided an overview of the current situation: Inside Syria, neither pro-[Assad] forces nor their opponents appear capable of consolidating their battlefield gains or achieving outright victory in the short term. Improved coordination among some anti-government forces and attrition in government 1 United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), ‘Syria Regional Refugee Response: Regional Overview’, accessed 6 February 2014. 2 United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (UNOCHA), ‘Syria Crisis Overview’, accessed 6 February 2014. 3 ibid. ranks makes a swift reassertion of state control across all of Syria improbable. Combat between the Al Qaeda-affiliated Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL, aka ISIS)4 and other [more moderate] anti-[Assad] forces across northern Syria has intensified since late December 2013, leading to the expulsion of ISIL forces from some areas.5 The authors of this analysis recorded that the war is exacerbating sectarian and political conflicts within Lebanon and Iraq, with the escalating violence threatening stability in these countries, as explored in more detail below.6 The CRS paper added that the flood of Syrian refugees to neighbouring countries, the growth of armed extremist groups in Syria, and the “assertive involvement” of countries such as Iran, Turkey and Sunni Arab governments (including those of Saudi Arabia and Qatar) are negatively affecting overall regional stability.7 Source: Congressional Research Service, Armed Conflict in Syria: Overview and US Response, 15 January 2014. 4 The Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) is also commonly referred to as the Islamic State of Iraq and Al Sham (ISIS). Al Sham is an Arabic term for the Levant. 5 CM Blanchard et al, Armed Conflict in Syria: Overview and US Response, Congressional Research Service, 15 January 2014, p 2. 6 ibid, p i. 7 ibid, p 4. 2.2 Who are the Rebels? The Syrian opposition is reportedly deeply fractious and divided. Noting the current situation, US analysts Blanchard et al observed: There are hundreds of active militia forces, ranging in size from a few dozen to thousands and organised around a wide variety of local communities, ethnic and religious identities, and political-religious ideologies. The size and relative strength of groups have varied and will continue to vary by location and time.8 They added: Opposition forces [in Syria] are formidable but lack unity of purpose, unity of command, and unified international support. Various opposition groups have, depending on the circumstances, cooperated and competed for influence and control. At present, significant elements of the opposition are engaged in outright conflict against one another. Some observers suggest that more than 75 percent of the armed opposition may seek to replace the Assad Government with a state ruled according to some form of Sunni Islamic law.9 Blanchard et al also wrote that the realignments and internal conflicts within the opposition since mid-2013 have made it difficult
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