OPTA analyst meeting
January 23, 2008 Programme
• 13.00 The main developments on the electronic communications and postal markets, by –Johan Keetelaar and Christa Cramer (electronic communications) –Symen Formsma (postal affairs) • Questions (also through internet) • 14.00 End of meeting Market developments
• Convergence • Bundling • Recommendation • Market analyses Increase in bundles
• Triple play: mostly cable • Dual play fixed+bb: DSL Increase digital telephony 6.000.000
5.000.000
4.000.000
PSTN/ISDN 3.000.000 WLR Digital Telephony Total telephony 2.000.000
1.000.000
0
5 0 5 5 20 30 Q1 Q 7 7 Q Q405 Q106 0 Q206 Q306 Q406 30 Q107 Q2 Q • 42% of consumer telephony now digital • Over 5% fixed consumer telephony WLR within one year • 17.7% mobile only households Q3 2007, Telecompaper Mobile retail market shares
Q307 Q306 KPN 4% 11% 6% Vodafone
14% 49% T-Mobile (incl. Orange) 26% Orange 22% KPN SP's, MVNO's Vodafone 47% T-Mobile (incl. Orange) SP's, MVNO's
21%
• Merger T-Mobile/Orange • Growth of service providers • Postpaid 47%, up from 44% Q306 • Over 18.9 mln customers Q3 2007, Telecompaper Broadcast retail market shares
2% Zesko (@Hom e, Casema, 6% Multikabel) (cable) 11% UPC (cable)
3% Delta (cable)
2% 44% CAIW (cable) 2% Other cable
Canal Digitaal (satellite)
KPN (m os tly DVB-T, s om e IPTV) 30% Tele2 (IPTV)
• 81% cable, compared to 87% in Q306 Q3 2007, Telecompaper Steady growth of digital TV
40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5%
07 07 0% 06 07 06 06 5 06 3 4 Q2 Q3 4 5 0 1 2 Q Q1 0 0 Q Q 04 04 Q405 Q 03 04 Q2 Q305 Q4 Q1 4 Q2 Q3 Q Q1
Cable Satellite (Dutch) Terrestial IPTV Total digital TV
Q3 2007, Telecompaper • From 29% Q306 to 38% Q307 (of all RTV subscriptions) • Digital cable includes analogue signal • Increased uptake of terrestrial Broadband retail market shares
8% 12% 1%
12% 11% Het Net (KPN, DSL) Planet Internet (KPN, DSL) Direct ADSL (KPN, DSL) XS4ALL (KPN, DSL) 3% Overig (KPN, DSL) Orange Breedband (DSL) Tele2Versatel (DSL) 7% 10% @Home (Zesko, cable) Casema (Zesko, cable) Multikabel (Zesko, cable) UPC (cable) Zeelandnet (cable) 5% Other (cable+DSL) 12%
6%
5% 8%
Q3 2007, Telecompaper • KPN (incl. Tiscali) 44% in Q307, compared to 40% in Q306 Broadband development
6
5
4
3 (mln. aansluitingen) (mln.
2
1
0 June 2005 June 2006 June 2007 June June 2002 June 2003 June 2004 June March 2005 March 2006 March 2007 March 2002 March 2003 March 2004 ecember 2004 December 2005 December 2006 December 2002 December 2003 September 2005 September 2006 September 2007 September September 2002 September 2003 September 2004 September
KPN (DSL) Alternative DSL operators Total DSL Cable operators Total cable and DSL Developments all-IP • Negotiated solution: KPN has now reached agreement on principles (MoUs) with the four largest LLU operators (bbned, Orange, Tele2, Easynet), Solcon and Plex; 3 others no result (yet) • KPN translates the agreements in a non-discriminatory public offer –1st version: 1 October 2007, 2nd this month Postal market
• New Postal Act postponed • New date wil depend on – state of affairs in Germany – conditions of employment for postal workers in The Netherlands • OPTA in favor of immediate liberalisation Revenues and returns TNT (reserved and universal service)
1200
1000
800 Total Revenues Reserved Area Total Revenues other 600 Universal Services Return other Universal millions euros Services Return Reserved Area 400
200
0 2003 2004 2005 2006 Year Volume adressed mail
6000
5000
4000
Top 3 companies TNT Mail 3000 Universal Service TNT millions euros Selekt mail/Sandd
2000
1000
0 2003 2004 2005 2006 Year Questions for OPTA experts
Johan Keetelaar and Christa Cramer (electronic communications)
Symen Formsma (postal affairs)
Representatives of the financial world should note that OPTA has the legal duty to protect company confidential data. End of meeting
• Contact for analysts: Cynthia Heijne
• +31 70 – 315 9223
• www.opta.nl