OPTA Analyst Meeting

OPTA analyst meeting January 23, 2008 Programme • 13.00 The main developments on the electronic communications and postal markets, by –Johan Keetelaar and Christa Cramer (electronic communications) –Symen Formsma (postal affairs) • Questions (also through internet) • 14.00 End of meeting Market developments • Convergence • Bundling • Recommendation • Market analyses Increase in bundles • Triple play: mostly cable • Dual play fixed+bb: DSL Increase digital telephony 6.000.000 5.000.000 4.000.000 3.000.000 2.000.000 1.000.000 • 42% of consumer0 telephony now digital • Over 5% fixed consumer telephony WLR within one year • 17.7% mobile onlyQ10 households5 Q205 Q305 Q405 Q106 Q206 Q306 PSTN/ISDN Q406 WLR Q107 Digital Telephony Total telephony Q207 Q307 Q3 2007, Te lecompaper Mobile retail market shares Q307 Q306 KPN 4% 11% 6% Vodafone 14% 49% T-Mobile (incl. Orange) Orange 26% 22% KPN SP's, MVNO's Vodafone 47% T-Mobile (incl. Orange) SP's, MVNO's 21% • Merger T-Mobile/Orange • Growth of service providers • Postpaid 47%, up from 44% Q306 • Over 18.9 mln customers Q3 2007, Telecompaper Broadcast retail market shares 6% 2% Zesko (@Hom e, Casema, Multikabel) (cable) 11% UPC (cable) 3% Delta (cable) 2% 44% CAIW (cable) 2% Other cable Canal Digitaal (satellite) KPN (m os tly DVB-T, s om e IPTV) 30% Tele2 (IPTV) • 81% cable, compared to 87% in Q306 Q3 2007, Telecompaper Steady growth of digital TV 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Q403 Q104 • From 29% Q306 toQ2 38%04 Q307 (of all RTV subscriptions) • Digital cable includesCable analogueQ304 signal • Increased uptake of terrestrial Q404 Q105 Satellite (Dutch) Q205 Q305 Q405 Terrestial Q106 Q206 Q306 IPTV Q406 Q107 Total digital TVQ207 Q307 Q3 2007, Te lecompaper Broadband retail market shares 8% 12% 1% 12% 11% Het Net (KPN, DSL) Planet Internet (KPN, DSL) Direct ADSL (KPN, DSL) XS4ALL (KPN, DSL) 3% Overig (KPN, DSL) Orange Breedband (DSL) Tele2Versatel (DSL) @Home (Zesko, cable) 7% 10% Casema (Zesko, cable) Multikabel (Zesko, cable) UPC (cable) Zeelandnet (cable) Other (cable+DSL) 5% 12% 6% 5% 8% Q3 2007, Telecompaper • KPN (incl. Tiscali) 44% in Q307, compared to 40% in Q306 Broadband development (mln. aansluitingen) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 March 2002 June 2002 September 2002 December 2002 March 2003 KPN (DSL) KPN June 2003 September 2003 Alternative DSL operators DSL Alternative December 2003 March 2004 June 2004 September 2004 Total DSL Total ecember 2004 March 2005 Cable operators Cable June 2005 September 2005 December 2005 Total cable and DSL cable Total March 2006 June 2006 September 2006 December 2006 March 2007 June 2007 September 2007 Developments all-IP • Negotiated solution: KPN has now reached agreement on principles (MoUs) with the four largest LLU operators (bbned, Orange, Tele2, Easynet), Solcon and Plex; 3 others no result (yet) • KPN translates the agreements in a non-discriminatory public offer –1st version: 1 October 2007, 2nd this month Postal market • New Postal Act postponed • New date wil depend on – state of affairs in Germany – conditions of employment for postal workers in The Netherlands • OPTA in favor of immediate liberalisation Revenues and returns TNT (reserved and universal service) 1200 1000 800 Total Revenues Reserved Area 600 Total Revenues other Universal Services Return other Universal millions euros Services Return Reserved Area 400 200 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 Year Volume adressed mail 6000 5000 4000 Top 3 companies 3000 TNT Mail Universal Service TNT millions euros Selekt mail/Sandd 2000 1000 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 Year Questions for OPTA experts Johan Keetelaar and Christa Cramer (electronic communications) Symen Formsma (postal affairs) Representatives of the financial world should note that OPTA has the legal duty to protect company confidential data. End of meeting • Contact for analysts: Cynthia Heijne • +31 70 – 315 9223 • [email protected] • www.opta.nl.

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