BLUE BOOK Market Report JUNE 2012 NEW-CAR MARKET ANALYSIS: Continued
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In This Issue: www.kbb.com NEW-CAR MARKET ANALYSIS SAAR Levels in May as Industry Sales Increase 26 Percent Year-Over-Year Economy Shows Signs of Weakness; More BLUE BOOK USED-CAR MARKET ANALYSIS JUNE Kelley Blue Book Analysts Expect Further Declines in Market Report 2012 Used-Car Values as New-Car Market Heats Up Fuel Sippers Lead to Declines; More Analysis from Kelley Blue Book’s Analytic Insights Team LATEST HOT USED-CAR REPORT In Down Economy, Used-Luxury Vehicles Up Kelley Blue Book Public Relations Contacts: Robyn Eagles | Senior Director, Public Relations Joanna Pinkham | Senior Public Relations Manager Brenna Robinson | Public Relations Manager Natalie Kumaratne | Public Relations Coordinator 949.268.3049 | [email protected] 949.268.3079 | [email protected] 949.267.4781 | [email protected] 949.267.4770 | [email protected] NEW-CAR MARKET ANALYSIS: SAAR Levels in May as Industry Sales Increase 26 Percent Year-Over-Year - Alec Gutierrez, senior market analyst, automotive insights, Kelley Blue Book lthough the overall sales pace slowed last month, Kelley Blue Book believes demand will remain strong Daily Selling Rate Reaches New High A enough to carry sales beyond 14 million units in 2012. 60,000 Most manufacturers appear to share this sentiment and have 50,000 indicated the steps necessary to increase production and meet anticipated demand through the year. 40,000 30,000 Industry sales hit 13.8 million seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) in May, slightly below the blistering 14.4 million unit 20,000 sales pace of March and April, but a healthy 26 percent above 10,000 the tsunami-reduced 11.7 million SAAR from last year. The daily selling rate was more than 51,300 vehicles per day, a 16 0 percent year-over-year increase and the strongest selling pace since May 2008. Source: KBB Automotive Insights & Automotive News Ford announced plans to increase North American production by 5 percent in the third quarter to a total of 690,000 vehicles. Without laying out any specifics, Chrysler also indicated they are looking to add production capacity wherever possible to meet demand. Pent-up demand continues to play a pivotal role in the industry as evidenced by the strong results through Memorial Day weekend, despite less than favorable economic news. Economy Shows Signs of Weakness as Auto Sales Continue to Surge s economic recovery slowed, consumer confidence (a vital barometer of economic health highly correlated to vehicle sales) Job Growth Slows has taken a hit. The pace of the economic recovery has been 600 A 500 far from ideal and actually showed signs of slowing in May. Weaker- 400 than-expected reports in the labor market and housing sector, along 300 with increasing fears of destabilization in the European Union, drove 200 down stock prices nearly 10 percent in May. Through the first week in Month 100 - June, markets responded positively to a statement by Federal Reserve 0 Over -100 Chairman Ben Bernanke, where he indicated that the Federal Reserve - stands at the ready to intervene if market conditions further deteriorate. -200 -300 Month Thousands of Jobs Gained/Lost Gained/Lost of Jobs Thousands Source: BLS NEW-CAR MARKET ANALYSIS: continued Another key indicator is the Consumer Confidence Index, which declined for the fourth consecutive month in May, at Employment Remains Well Below Peak 140,000 64.9 (1985=100), down nearly 4 points from April. The Present - Situation Index also remains uncomfortably low, at a reading 138,000 136,000 just shy of 50, and the Expectation Index is below 80, indicating consumers generally are unhappy with their current situation but 134,000 remain hopeful. All of these indices show a possible decline in 132,000 demand for big-ticket items like new vehicles. 130,000 128,000Thousands Perhaps the most troubling news in May was the jobs report 126,000 released on June 1. After several months of declines, the Total Employed in the U.S. 124,000 unemployment rate edged slightly up to 8.2 percent. Only 69,000 Jul-09 Jul-08 Jul-10 Jul-11 Apr-09 Oct-09 Apr-10 Apr-08 Oct-08 Oct-10 Apr-11 Oct-11 Apr-12 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 jobs were created in May, well below the more than 250,000 jobs Jan-12 created in January and February. More than 800,000 jobs were Source: BLS created through the first five months of the year, a seemingly substantial gain. However, this is only a drop in the bucket when we consider that the economy is still 5 million jobs shy of pre-recession levels. We should note that job growth slowed similarly last year on fears of the European Debt Crisis negatively impacting United States financial markets. After stalling from May through August in 2011, job growth picked up in September as the situation in Europe improved. The economy likely will avoid a double-dip recession if job growth remains positive, but if growth remains on its current course, it may be several years before the economy fully recovers. Until that time, auto sales will fail to return to the 16 million unit per year norm of the 1990s and 2000s. Although sales have improved steadily since 2009, we may be nearing a plateau until the economy is on more stable footing. Pent-Up Demand, Loose Credit Drive Sales Growth he economic recovery, reported to be underway, has lost momentum in recent months and sales have been carried primarily by pent-up demand. In addition to consumer demand, attractive finance offers and loosening credit standards have been crucial to sales momentum despite the gloomy T economic headlines. Consumers are returning to the market in droves after being forced to the sidelines in 2011 when inventory shortages stemmed from the earthquake and tsunami in Japan. In addition, a large segment of buyers either were not impacted by the downturn or have grown tired of waiting for a full-fledged economic recovery or a resurgence in home values, and have opted to ditch their 11-year-old (on average, according to Polk) vehicle to purchase something new. Significantly improved redesigns have enticed many hesitant buyers to finally cash in on near-record-high trade-in values to upgrade to a new model. Those shoppers pulling the trigger on a new-vehicle purchase were greeted with increased credit availability and record low interest rates. According to Experian, the average credit score on new-vehicle loans hit 760; the lowest average score in five years. Subprime borrowers made up 44.4 percent of all new-vehicle loans in the first quarter, still below 46.2 percent from 2008, but the highest recorded share since that time. As banks continue to make credit more accessible, we expect the industry will see new-vehicle sales maintain a steady course. Affordable credit alone will not be sufficient to drive sales growth indefinitely, especially as pent-up demand levels off in the months ahead. Before the industry can rise to 16 million sales per year, we will need more significant and sustainable growth in the economy. Oil Prices Slide on European Recession, Weak Economy; Gas Price Drops Impact Fuel-Efficient Vehicle Sales il prices dipped below $85 per barrel for the first time since October of last year, as the unemployment rate in the Eurozone hit 11 percent and fears of a prolonged European recession resurfaced. While cheaper gas certainly is good news for consumers, the ongoing troubles in Europe should be O cause for concern. Mario Draghi, president of the European Central Bank, recently chastised European leaders for not acting swiftly or forcefully in response to the ongoing sovereign debt crisis, going so far as to say the Eurozone had become “unsustainable” in its current form. Of particular concern are the fates of Greece and Spain, and the possibility they could default on their loans or withdraw from the Eurozone altogether. The debate continues as to whether this would spell disaster for Europe or merely register as a blip on the radar. Regardless of the outcome, it is clear that the European recession has a long way to go before it is resolved, and the fallout could be far-reaching. In the short term, the current downturn in Europe has lessened demand for crude oil, which has played a role in the most recent price declines for oil. 2 BLUE BOOK Market Report JUNE 2012 NEW-CAR MARKET ANALYSIS: continued In addition to a decline in European demand, oil prices YoY Since April also have been impacted by weak growth of the United Jun 06, 2011 Apr 02, 2012 Jun 07, 2012 $ % $ % States economy and rising stock piles of crude oil. A Fuel Prices $3.78 $3.94 $3.58 -$0.20 -5.3% -$0.36 -9.2% recent release from the Department of Energy reported Oil Prices $100.92 $105.12 $83.67 -$17.25 -17.1% -$21.45 -20.4% Source: Energy Information Administration (EIA) that United States crude stockpiles are at a 22-year high on weak demand from consumers. With oil prices sliding, we may see fuel prices approach $3.00 per gallon by year-end. Fuel prices currently stand at $3.60 per gallon nationally, more than $0.30 per gallon cheaper than the peak in early April. Cheaper fuel prices already had an impact on fuel-efficient vehicle sales in May. Both subcompact and hybrid cars lost a half point of market share in May, while compact cars and crossovers increased by the same amount. Consumers remain mindful of fuel prices and clearly still prefer fuel-efficient vehicles, but with gas prices falling fast, they are less likely to sacrifice utility by opting for a subcompact or pay a premium for a hybrid or electric vehicle.