NORTHERN IRELAND Richard Rose Is Professor of Politics at the University of Strath• Clyde, Glasgow, Scotland

NORTHERN IRELAND Richard Rose is professor of politics at the University of Strath clyde, Glasgow, Scotland. NORTHERN IRELAND A Time of Choice Richard Rose © 1976 by the American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research, Washington, D.C., U.S.A. Views expressed in the Institute's publications are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the view of the staff, advisory panels, officers or trustees of AE I. Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1st edition 1976 All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted, in any form or by any means, without permission. First published in the U.S.A. 1976 First published in the United Kingdom 1976 Published by THE MACMILLAN PRESS LTD London and Basingstoke Associated companies in New York Dublin Melbourne Johannesburg and Madras SBN 333 19727 5 (hardcover) 333 19732 1 (paperback) ISBN 978-0-333-19732-5 ISBN 978-1-349-15721-1 (eBook) DOI 10.1007/978-1-349-15721-1 The paperback edition of this book is sold subject to the condition that it shall not, by way of trade or otherwise, be lent, resold, hired out, or otherwise circulated without the publisher's prior consent in any form of binding or cover other than that in which it is published and without a similar condition including this condition being imposed on the subsequent purchaser. This book is sold subject to the standard conditions of the Net Book Agreement To the people of Antrim, Armagh, Down, Fermanagh, Londonderry and Tyrone however they choose to describe themselves. They endured CONTENTS INTRODUCTION 1 1 THE PROBLEM BRIEFLY STATED 7 Nationality 9 Religion 11 Government without Consensus 14 2 TO THE PRECIPICE 19 Stormont, 1921-1972 19 The Political Vacuum, 1972-1975 27 3 THE PARTIES TO THE CONFLICT 33 Characteristics of Political Organization in Ulster 33 Protestant Political Groupings 37 Catholic Political Groupings 49 The "Extreme" Moderates 58 The British Role 59 Ulster and the Republic 65 Strange Bedfellows 68 4 CAMPAIGNING FOR A CONSTITUTION 71 The Circumstances of the Election 71 The Competing Parties 79 On the Eve of the Election 92 5 THE RESULT OF THE BALLOT 95 Turnout and Boycott 95 The Distribution of Votes 99 The Effects of Proportional Representation 102 The Discipline of Voters 105 The Winning Candidates 111 6 IN SEARCH OF A SETTLEMENT 117 Strategic Options 117 A Productive Recess 123 The Outcome 132 7 THE LIMITS OF CHOICE 139 An Insoluble Problem 139 Alternative Ways of Coping 142 Self-Government within the United Kingdom 143 Direct Rule from London 153 An Independent Northern Ireland 156 Unification with Southern Ireland 157 The Destruction of Northern Ireland 160 The Way Ahead 165 APPENDIX A: Vote Transfers 167 APPENDIX B: A Note on Readings 173 LIST OF TABLES AND FIGURES 1. Deaths by Political Violence in Northern Ireland, 1969-1975 25 2. Northern Ireland Assembly Election Result, 1973 30 3. Northern Ireland Convention Election Result, 1975 97 4. Relation of Seats to Votes, Northern Ireland and the United Kingdom 104 5. The Strength of Partisanship 108 6. Votes by Tendencies, Westminster and Northern Ireland Elections, 1973-1975 110 7. Religious Affiliation of Convention Members 111 8. Comparison of Ages of Convention Members and Westminster M.P.s 112 9. Comparison of the Occupations of Convention Members and Westminster M.P.s 113 10. Comparison of the Education of Convention Members and Westminster M.P.s 114 11. The Political Experience of Convention Members 115 A-1. Sources of Vote Transfers, Northern Ireland Convention Election 171 A-2. Distribution of Vote Transfers, Northern Ireland Convention Election 172 Figure 1. The Distribution of the Vote by Tendencies, 1973 and 1975 98 LIST OF MAPS Britain and Ireland, opposite page 1 Northern Ireland 8 ABBREVIATIONS B Specials Ulster Special Constabulary (paramilitary police organization disbanded in 1969) DUP Democratic Unionist party (leader: Ian Paisley) IRA Irish Republican Army IRSP Irish Republican Socialist party NILP Northern Ireland Labour party NIO Northern Ireland Office of the United Kingdom government PR Proportional representation RUC Royal Ulster Constabulary (police force) SDLP Social Democratic and Labour party (leader: Gerry Fitt) STY Single transferable vote UDA Ulster Defence Association (Protestant paramilitary organization) UDR Ulster Defence Regiment (British army-led paramilitary reserve) UPNI Unionist party of Northern Ireland (leader: Brian Faulkner) uuuc United Ulster Unionist Council UVF Ulster Volunteer Force uwc Ulster Workers' Council VUP Vanguard Unionist party BRITAIN AND IRELAND tl ~ ~ c. 0 v ' " ~ 1r~ "f I " ,,•• "f" .

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