CFA Institute Research Challenge
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CFA Institute Research Challenge hosted by CFA Society of Argentina & Uruguay Grupo Financiero Galicia: Analysing Argentina´s Financial Sector Ticker: GGAL Current Price: 53.97 (10/20/2017) Recommendation: SELL 12-m Target Price: Exchange : NASDAQ 12-m Target Price: USD 45.61 Downside: 15.5% Market Profile Highlights 52 - Week Range (USD) 23.23 - 58.61 52 - Week Change 144.5% 90 - Day Average Volume 509.6 Grupo Financiero Galicia S.A. (NASDAQ: GGAL; BYMA: GGAL.BA) is a Outstanding ADR (M USD) 142.52 vertically integrated financial services holding company which is Market Cap (USD) 7.98 B controlled by EBA Holding. Free Float 80.26% The company occupies a comfortable position in the financial industry Valuation Ratios with a market share of private sector deposits of 7.49% and loans to P/E (TTM) 19.22x private sector of 10.06%. P/BV (MRQ) 4.06x Dividend Yield 0.21% GGAL faces strong competition in most of the areas in which their Financials subsidiaries are active, including among them, recognized international Income Financial Operation (LTM) 973.3 companies. Income Fees & Commisions (LTM) 851.2 Income Insurance (LTM) 146.7 Banco Galicia is the main subsidiary of the group and it is 100% controlled by GGAL, which explains the 67% of the income of the group. Net Income (LTM) 435.7 EPS (LTM) 5.18 Banco Galicia has more leverage and less liquidity compared to the Figure 1; Source: Team estimates based on Thompson average of Argentinian’s private banks. Also, Galicia has a more Reuters Data expensive funding cost and charges a lower rate to total loans; consequently, its financial margin and ROA are lower than its peers. BCRA established three priorities that affect directly this industry: to control inflation; to maintain stability in the financial sector, and to promote the bankarization among the population. In view of the current situation of the Argentine macroeconomy, these goals are too ambitious to achieve in the short- medium term. Valuation Outcome We issue a SELL recommendation with a 1-year target price of USD 45.61 per ADR, representing a 15.5% downside from its closing price at October Figure 2; Source: Team estimates 20th, 2017 of USD 53.97. The valuation of Grupo Financiero Galicia S.A was conducted by applying two different methods: a FCFE model and Relative Valuation (see Figure 2). MERVAL vs. GGAL´s ADR [USD Variation; Jan-14=100] Reasons to SELL: • The 61% of the price of GGAL’s ADR lays on the present value of growth opportunities (PVGO), this means that Argentina will have to break its historic records for key variables such as Deposits to GPD and Loans to GDP. • Grupo Galicia's loan portfolio is composed by 50% of consumer loans. This poorly diversified portfolio composition overexposes GGAL’s profits to the evolution of a deteriorating real wage. Figure 3; Source: Thompson Reuters Data 1 Grupo Financiero Galicia: Analysing Argentina´s Financial Sector Shareholder´s Structure &Related Companies Business Description: Grupo Financiero Galicia S.A. (NASDAQ: GGAL; BYMA: GGAL) is a financial services holding company incorporated in 1999 organized under Argentine laws. Classified as a Sociedad Anónima (a Stock Corporation), the holding does not have operations of its own, and conducts their business through its subsidiaries. (Figure 4). It operates in the following segments: banking, regional credit card services, insurance, and asset management (Figure 5). Throughout its subsidiaries, related companies, and a wide variety of distribution channels, services, and products; they provide their financial services to more than 9 million customers along the country. It presents integrated activities within the financial sector, which allows developing economies of scale. Business Units Banking: Banco Galicia is the main subsidiary of the group, and is 100% controlled by GGAL since 2014. It is a banking entity whose incomes are mainly originated by the interests gained from loans, fees and commissions. According to information published by Argentina’s Central Bank (BCRA), Banco Galicia is ranked second in terms of assets, deposits and loans within the private banking sector. Banco Galicia’s customer base comprises mostly individuals from all economic sectors, but also companies, divided into several segments: Large Corporation Banking, Companies, Agricultural and Livestock Sector, Foreign Trade, Capital Markets and Investment Banking. Regional Credit Cards: Grupo Galicia participates in the regional credit card business through Tarjetas Regionales S.A, as a vertically integrated holding company. Tarjetas Regionales S.A. has the majority of the shares of Tarjeta Figure 4; Source: Company Data Naranja S.A and Tarjetas Cuyanas S.A, Procesadora Regional S.A and Cobranzas Regionales S.A. These business units allow the group to reach a new Income by Business Unit market segment which consists mainly of low-income citizens, and non- bankarized customers from the remaining provinces besides Capital Federal and it suburbs. As a whole, these companies allow the Regional Credit Cards business unit not only to issue credit cards but also to develop its own platform, payment processing system, and branding. Tarjetas Regionales offers its own brand and also offers international credit card brands such as Visa, MasterCard and American Express. Insurance: Grupo Galicia operates in this activity through Sudamericana S.A. and its subsidiaries, under the branding name of Galicia Seguros. The product lineup includes life, retirement, property and casualty insurance products Figure 5; Source: Team estimates based on Company Data marketed in Argentina. Historical Background Figure 6; Source: Company Data Grupo Financiero Galicia: AInalysing Argentina´s Financial Sector Other subsidiaries: • Galicia Administradora de Fondos: its main activity comprises the management of mutual funds under the brand “FIMA”, which are distributed through Banco Galicia’s channel (network of branches, home banking and investment centers, among others). • Net Investment: its purpose was to invest in developing technologies related to the business, communications, internet connectivity and web contents. On May 16th, 2017 shareholders approved the voluntary corporate dissolution and liquidation of this subsidiary. • Galicia Warrants: is a leading company in the deposit certificates and warrants issuance market. It supports medium and large companies with respect to stock custody. • Compañia Financiera Argentina: is a non-banking financial company that provides unsecured personal loans, and credit cards on a limited scale. On January 12th, 2017, shareholders accepted to sell all the shares to Galeno Capital S.A.U. This transaction is pending approval by the regulatory authorities. • Galicia Valores: operates as a stock broker controlled by Banco Galicia. Industry Overview: Macroeconomic Policies Target Macroeconomic Outlook: Since Macri’s administration took office, several bold reforms and turnover policies were conducted in order to stabilize the Argentine economy. This path to normalization was leaded by the dismantling of currency controls; elimination of export taxes (except for soybean) and softening of import Figure 7; Source: BCRA barriers; withdrawing of mistargeted subsidies; and a tax amnesty programme, which led to an extraordinary tax revenue of 1.6% of GDP. Conjointly to these measures, BCRA established three priorities: to control Inflation vs. Spread inflation; to maintain stability in the financial sector, and to promote the bankarization among the population. Inflation: to continue with the disinflation process, monetary policy is being conducted through the reference interest rate (remaining at its lowest stage since 2016, currently at 26.5%), to accomplish the inflation targets defined until 2019 (Figure 7). Although inflation has begun to decrease, the expectations for this variable, according to the REM survey, are higher than the target, mainly because of the expectations related to utilities’ tariff adjustments. In order to meet the inflation target, the key variables to control are real wage indexation and fiscal deficit, which must achieve the target set on 2.2% of GDP for 2019 (Figure 7). Figure 8; Source: Team estimates based on Company Data Bankarization: to promote bankarization, BCRA has implemented easier and INDEC ways to access the financial market, including new technologies such as PIM which aims to boost the usage of banking technologies procedures for Deposits/Loans as % of GDP those who are not familiarized with it. To succeed in this subject, financial education is also being promoted. Furthermore, requirements for opening new banks branches were soften in locations with higher informal economy rates. Financial sector: to accomplish stability and gain access to international capital markets, an agreement was conducted with the holdout creditors of 2001 defaulted debt. This yielded Argentina access to external debt, and thus the augmentation of international reserves stabilized the foreign exchange rate. Efficiency and development is being pursued through the Figure 9: Source: Company Data implementation of new instruments, such as UVA, providing the indexation of personal and mortgage loans by inflation. Since its application in March 2017, the mortgage loans grew 9.2%, accounting 88% for this new kind of Financial Depth (% as GDP) loans. Nevertheless, the financial instruments to diversify the mismatching maturities risk is still being designed. Banks are experiencing a diminish in the financial margin because of lower