45th Lunar and Planetary Science Conference (2014) 1649.pdf THE CASE OF THE MISSING CERES FAMILY. A. S. Rivkin1 and E. Asphaug2, 1JHU/APL, Laurel, MD, USA ([email protected]). 2Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ, USA. Introduction: Most of the largest asteroids in the If a Ceres family exists, it is exceedingly unlikely to main belt are associated with an impact-generated dy- have escaped detection. namical family. The Vesta family dominates the inner Dodging bullets? Could Ceres have simply asteroid belt with its numbers [1-2], and was a critical avoided making a family? Given that it is the largest piece of evidence in tying the HED meteorites to Ves- asteroid, and thus the biggest target, it is exceedingly ta. In addition to Vesta (the third-largest asteroid), Pal- unlikely that it would have avoided impact by a sizable las (the second-largest asteroid), Hygiea (the fourth- smaller asteroid. However, it might be argued that the largest asteroid), and the largest S-class asteroid, 15 escape speed for Ceres, ∼0.5 km/s, would suppress Eunomia, all have dynamical families [3-6]. family formation, as it is higher than that of any other Twelve asteroids in the current main belt have di- body in the asteroid belt. The amount of ejecta escap- ameters over 250 km, containing two-thirds of the as- ing from Ceres might be reduced, compared to similar- teroid belt’s mass. In addition, [7] estimated that two sized impacts occurring on lower-gravity asteroids; of the largest present-day families, Themis and Eos, and the energy required to escape might lead to highly had parent bodies in the ~300-400 km size range where comminuted fragments or even vaporization. we find Hygiea, Pallas, and Vesta today. In total, ten of Assuming Ceres and Vesta have experienced a the 14 known 250+ km bodies in the past or present comparable bombardment, Ceres’ greater escape ve- asteroid belt are associated with dynamical families, locity should lead to a smaller amount of ejecta escap- either of the smaller “cratering” type, dominated by a ing, roughly 2/3 what would escape Vesta. Half as major body and relatively small fragments, or large much would escape Ceres as Pallas, and only 1/4 as disruptions (impact energy Q > Q∗D) that indicate much as Hygiea, for a similar impact event, leading to gravity-dominated catastrophic events. It is curious, the expectation of a less prominent family for Ceres. then, that the very largest body in the asteroid belt, However, while the amount of escaping ejecta from a Ceres, is missing from this list of parents. given impact event may be reduced, this is more than Ceres is unassociated with any sort of family at all made up for by Ceres experiencing more massive as as far as we know. This alone is perhaps not sufficient well as more frequent impact events. For example, the to draw any conclusion, but motivates us towards the model of [8] predicts 2.5 impacts of 40-km bodies into considerations we make here. We hope to show that Vesta over 4.5 Gy, implying 7-8 similarly-sized im- the lack of a family has implications for Ceres’ internal pacts into Ceres over the same time period. [9] simu- structure, and further hope to encourage research be- lated the cratering rate on Ceres and Vesta, providing yond the scope of this work – geodynamical, chemical comparable results. They find that the largest expected and collisional modeling – that can provide additional impactor on Ceres is ∼70 km in diameter (similar in firm constraints. size to the impactor that created the Vesta family [10]), Hiding out? Could the Ceres family be hiding and they expect Ceres to have nearly 50 craters over somewhere? It could be argued that the size limit of a 100 km in diameter. Interestingly, hints of surface Ceres family is smaller than what has been catalogued features consistent with impact basins of the sizes ex- in the main asteroid belt. However, that seems unlike- pected are found in HST- and AO-derived albedo maps ly. The limiting absolute magnitude for completeness of Ceres [11-12]. Two particularly large albedo fea- in the Minor Planet Center database is H ≈ 15 for the tures (diameters 180 and 350 km) are interpreted as middle asteroid belt where Ceres resides [2], corre- impact basins by [12], and the latter feature in particu- sponding to a threshold diameter of ∼ 4 km for objects lar is consistent with a family-forming size based on with Ceres-like albedo. For comparison, the second- the impact scaling. The larger feature is also compara- largest members of the Pallas, Vesta, and Sylvia fami- ble to the size one would expect for a 70-km impactor lies have diameters in the 10-25 km range, and many hitting Ceres at 5 km/s (400-500 km final diameter, of the other families containing asteroids with diame- consistent with the estimates of [9]. Given all of this, ters >250 km also contain additional asteroids with there is no obvious impediment to creating a Ceres diameters of 75 km or larger. For comparison, the fam- family. ily associated with 128 Nemesis, a C-class asteroid Collisional or dynamical erosion? Just as colli- near Ceres’ location in the middle asteroid belt has sions create families, so they eventually destroy them. over 250 identified family members with H ≤ 15 [4]. Given enough time, the members of a collisional fami- ly will be ground down. It may be argued that the cur- 45th Lunar and Planetary Science Conference (2014) 1649.pdf rent lack of a Ceres family is simply a consequence of even higher, approaching 210 K. This is noteworthy timing and inevitable erosion rather than providing because Ganymede is not a low-albedo object (geomet- insight into Ceres itself. [8] modeled the collisional ric albedo 0.6, bond albedo 0.42), and is thought to and dynamical evolution of the asteroid belt as a have only a few tens of percent of non-ice material at whole, and found the collisional lifetime of 1- its surface at most (Hibbitts, personal communication). km bodies approached 1 Gyr. This collisional lifetime While cometary sublimation eventually ceases due estimate suggests that a sizable fraction of 1-km and to lag deposit generation, the relatively clean ice ex- larger objects in any Ceres family should still exist pected in Ceres’ mantle provides much less opportuni- regardless of when an impact took place. ty for material to build up. Sublimation also provides a Nor should drift due to Yarkovsky forces play a plausible mechanism for preventing lag deposit for- major role in the removal of km-scale Ceres family mation in the first place on members of a Ceres family objects. The nearest strong resonance, the 5:2 mean as gas flow removes particles. A 20-km body with motion resonance with Jupiter, is at 2.82 AU. This is Ganymede’s albedo at 2.77 AU can eject 160-µm di- about 500 Myr away at the quoted, ideal drift rates for ameter grains at its equator. At ±30o and poleward lati- 1-km objects [8]. However, the diurnal Yarkovsky drift tudes, only 1-10-µm grains can be ejected, but if a lag will either shrink or expand orbits depending up- deposit were begun, it should darken and warm by 5- on whether an object is a retrograde or prograde spin- 10 K on the timescale of 10-100 My, perhaps leading ner and therefore only half of the objects could be ex- to outbursts at those latitudes as increased gas flux can pected to move toward the 5:2 resonance, with half eject more massive particles. Smaller bodies, with less moving away from it. Taking this into account, and gravity, can eject potential lag deposit particles even at noting the quoted rate is a maximum rate, and that higher latitudes and lower temperatures. This admitted- larger objects will drift more slowly, it seems unlikely ly simplistic view ignores the effects of obliquity, that a Ceres family can be removed in toto via drift to a shape changes, volumetric changes as ice heats and resonance and subsequent evolution to planet-crossing cools, and other factors, but those should not change behavior. If a Ceres family is created, and it is like the overall conclusion. Indeed, shape changes concep- other asteroid families in its nature, it is unlikely to tually could lead to additional stresses on small ob- have been erased. jects, which in turn could lead to fracturing that would Sublimation of an icy family? It is also possible aid the sublimation process, and non-zero obliquity that rather than suffering collisional or dynamical ero- would increase the fraction of the body experiencing sion, any once-existing Ceres family experienced sub- sub-solar temperatures and increase the overall subli- limation. Ceres’ shape and moment of inertia have mation rate. been interpreted as indicating an ice shell above a rocky core [13], in agreement with thermal evolution References: [1] Binzel R. P. and Xu S. (1993) Sci- models [14-15]. However, the surface of Ceres is too ence, 260, 186-191. [2] DeMeo F. and Carry B. (2013) warm to maintain ice for significantly long periods of Icarus, 226, 723-741. [3] Gil-Hutton R. (2006) Icarus, time (save very near the poles), and the retreat rate of 183, 93-100. [4] Nesvorny D. (2012) NASA Planetary ice does not reach m/Gy speeds until it reaches a depth Data System. [5] Carruba V. (2013) Mon. Not. Royal of order ∼100-1000 m (depending upon latitude and Ast.