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Urban Sunrise AFRL-IF-RS-TR-2004-22 Final Technical Report February 2004 URBAN SUNRISE Veridian/General Dynamics Sponsored by Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency DARPA Order No. Q106 APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE; DISTRIBUTION UNLIMITED. The views and conclusions contained in this document are those of the authors and should not be interpreted as necessarily representing the official policies, either expressed or implied, of the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency or the U.S. Government. AIR FORCE RESEARCH LABORATORY INFORMATION DIRECTORATE ROME RESEARCH SITE ROME, NEW YORK STINFO FINAL REPORT This report has been reviewed by the Air Force Research Laboratory, Information Directorate, Public Affairs Office (IFOIPA) and is releasable to the National Technical Information Service (NTIS). At NTIS it will be releasable to the general public, including foreign nations. AFRL-IF-RS-TR-2004-22 has been reviewed and is approved for publication. APPROVED: /s/ JOSEPH A. CAROZZONI Project Engineer FOR THE DIRECTOR: /s/ JAMES W. CUSACK, Chief Information Systems Division Information Directorate Form Approved REPORT DOCUMENTATION PAGE OMB No. 074-0188 Public reporting burden for this collection of information is estimated to average 1 hour per response, including the time for reviewing instructions, searching existing data sources, gathering and maintaining the data needed, and completing and reviewing this collection of information. Send comments regarding this burden estimate or any other aspect of this collection of information, including suggestions for reducing this burden to Washington Headquarters Services, Directorate for Information Operations and Reports, 1215 Jefferson Davis Highway, Suite 1204, Arlington, VA 22202-4302, and to the Office of Management and Budget, Paperwork Reduction Project (0704-0188), Washington, DC 20503 1. AGENCY USE ONLY (Leave blank) 2. REPORT DATE 3. REPORT TYPE AND DATES COVERED FEBRUARY 2004 FINAL May 03 – Nov 03 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE 5. FUNDING NUMBERS C - F30602-03-C-0092 URBAN SUNRISE PE - 62302E PR - DAML TA - 00 6. AUTHOR(S) WU - 24 Russ Vane, Woody Spring, Ed Waltz, Tom Tulenko, Mike Schenaker, Jeff White, Glenn Taylor, Patrick Kenny, Jack Zaientz, Amy Henninger, Tim Kilvert-Jones, Dave Walters 7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 8. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION Veridian/General Dynamics REPORT NUMBER 1400 Key Blvd Suite 100 N/A Arlington VA 22209-2369 9. SPONSORING / MONITORING AGENCY NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 10. SPONSORING / MONITORING AGENCY REPORT NUMBER Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency AFRL/IFSF 3701 North Fairfax Drive 525 Brooks Road AFRL-IF-RS-TR-2004-22 Arlington VA 22203-1714 Rome NY 13441-4505 11. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES AFRL Project Engineer: Joseph A. Carozzoni/IFSF/(315) 330-7796 [email protected] 12a. DISTRIBUTION / AVAILABILITY STATEMENT 12b. DISTRIBUTION CODE APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE; DISTRIBUTION UNLIMITED. 13. ABSTRACT (Maximum 200 Words) This report describes the research performed to explore the potential to enhance military urban operations, planning and execution, by providing new civil intelligence preparation-analysis and Effects Based Operations (EBO) planning capabilities to the urban warfighters and occupying civil adminstrations. The objective is to provide a comprehensive capability for construction of urban civil intelligence for dynamic effects-based operations analysts to coordinate administrative, information, and military security operations for greatest effects. A “three-domain” urban model was developed to model human organizational behavior (cognitive domain), information paths and structures (information domain), and the physical infrastructure of the urban area of interest (physical domain). This effort was a “seedling” effort to conduct the basic research and develop the theory. A follow-on effort by the Army will develop the static description and dynamic simulation of the three urban domains, providing visualization and explanation facilities to allow analysts and planners to explore the consequences of effects based administrative, security and information operations. 14. SUBJECT TERMS 15. NUMBER OF PAGES Software Agents, Knowledge-Based 182 16. PRICE CODE 17. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION 18. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION 19. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION 20. LIMITATION OF ABSTRACT OF REPORT OF THIS PAGE OF ABSTRACT UL UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED NSN 7540-01-280-5500 Standard Form 298 (Rev. 2-89) Prescribed by ANSI Std. Z39-18 298-102 Table of Contents Page Executive Summary………………………………………………………………………………….. 1 1. Military Need ………………………………………………………………………………………… 9 1.1 Civil Needs in Combat and Stability Ops……………………………….……… 10 1.2 Defining Foreign Civil Intelligence Needs……………………………………… 22 2. Technical Approach………………………………………………………………………….….. 29 2.1 Defining Foreign Civil Intelligence…………………………………….………….. 29 2.2 Concept of Operations……………………………………………………………………. 38 2.3 Example Use Case…………………………………………………………..……………… 38 2.4 The Technical Functions…………………………………………………………………… 47 2.5 Foreign Civil Intelligence Collection………………………..…………………. 52 2.6 Foreign Civil Representation……………………………………………………….. 56 2.7 Foreign Civil EBO Modeling and Simulation………………………………… 59 2.8 Refinement Process…………………………………………………………….………….. 69 2.9 Experimental Results………………………………………………………………………. 71 2.10 Visualization, Reporting, Dissemination………………………………………. 78 3. Technologies…………………………………………………………………………………….….. 81 4. Measuring Impact ……………………………………………………………………………….. 87 5. Technical Issues ………………………………………………………………..………………. 100 6. Military Transition ………………………………………………………………………………… 102 7. Program Approach…………………………………………………………….…………………. 105 8. Summary……………………………………………………………………………………………… 108 9. References ………………………………………………………………………………………….. 108 APPENDICES A. Draft URBAN SUNRISE Memorandum of Agreement (MOA) 113 B. Survey of the Use of the Term ‘Culture’ in Military Operations 115 C. Analysis of Culture in Iraqi Theater of Operations 126 D. Taxonomy of Cultural Dimensions in Military Operations and Tools 136 E. Consideration of Urban Sunrise Tool Use Case 145 F. Computational Model of Trust in SASO 148 G. Cognitive Layer Design Document 163 i ACKNOWLEGEMENTS The study was conducted by the following team of researchers, technologists, analysts and experienced urban war fighters: General Dynamics- Dr. Russ Vane (Principal Investigator), Woody Spring (Colonel USA, Ret.), Ed Waltz, Tom Tulenko, Mike Schenaker, Jeff White (consultant) Soar Technology – Glenn Taylor (Principal Investigator), Patrick Kenny (Program Manager), Jack Zaientz, Amy Henninger Noesis – Timothy Kilvert-Jones, Dave Walters (Colonel UK Army, Ret., MBE) The Urban Sunrise research team is grateful to Dr. Bob Tenny, Deputy Dir. DARPA IXO, for his helpful guidance and encouraging direction in the course of this study. ii URBAN SUNRISE Synthetic Urban Networks and Relationships Intelligence and Simulation Environment Executive Summary The URBAN SUNRISE seedling has explored the potential to enhance military urban operations planning and execution, by providing new civil intelligence preparation- analysis and effects based operations (EBO) planning capabilities to the urban warfighters and occupying civil administrations. The capability will provide a comprehensive capability for construction of urban civil intelligence and will allow dynamic effects-based operations analyses to coordinate administrative, information, and military security operations for greatest effects. Executive Summary - Overview Concept Technical Approach Develop the predictive analytic Alternative COA Policies Events Civil intelligence capability that will support News K-Base integrated urban administrative, physical and information operations in Focus groups Effects Planning Based Command Mil intelligence Civil Intel Fusion support of pre-Combat through Simulation Control Stability Operations. Indicators Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Civil Intelligence and Effects based Civil Entities, Civil EBO COA Ops Planning Collection Tasking Events Situation Analysis Products Plan Demonstrated Civil Intelligence and Ops-Planning Capability PHASE 1 FY04-06 (30 Months) z Civil Intelligence Collection and Data Key technology components Fusion Capability development z EBO Planning for Info Ops, Civil Admin PHASE 2 (FY 07-08) (18 Months) and Military security 3-Increment integration-evaluation with z Quantitative measures of current-new J-9 simulations, MOE’s contributions to Civil Effects PHASE 3 (FY 08) (12 Months) Field-evaluated capability and supporting technologies Field evaluation at (JWID, UW, etc.) Slide 5 Overview The recommended DARPA program will develop the predictive analytic capability to represent, model and evaluate effects of operations on urban civil populations and opposition organizations (e.g. belligerents, terrorists, etc.) The approach follows a “three-domain” urban model that acknowledges the need to model human organizational behavior (cognitive domain), information paths and structures (information domain) and the physical infrastructure of the urban area of interest (physical domain). The URBAN SUNRISE capability will allow static description and dynamic simulation of the three urban domains providing visualization and explanation facilities to allow analysts and planners to explore the 1 consequences of effects based administrative, security and information operations. The URBAN SUNRISE program will deliver the following products: • A demonstrated Civil Intelligence and Ops-Planning Capability that includes Civil Intelligence
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