UK £2 February 24, 2019 Issue 194, Year 4 www.thearabweekly.com EU €2.50 Debating Euro-Arab Egyptian developments summit petroleum in in minister Page 9 Page 18 Page 20 Crown prince leads Saudis’ pivot amid regional tensions ► In his tour, Crown Prince Mohammed was enhancing his country’s diversification of its international relations in a way that matches the growing clout of Asian powers.

Mohammed Alkhereiji that the visit was nudging Riyadh “The Saudi leadership recognises and Islamabad closer together. that it’s integral to diversify its re- “dialled up the rhetoric” lationships,” Mohammed Turki London once it became “concerned that Pa- al-Sudairi, a -based re- kistan’s position may be shifting,” searcher for the King Faisal Centre audi Crown Prince Moham- wrote Middle East expert James for Research and Islamic Studies, med bin Salman bin Ab- Dorsey. told the New York Times. “The dulaziz has advanced Ri- Besides trying to pressure Is- message is that there are other op- S yadh’s Asia pivot campaign lamabad away from Riyadh, Tehran tions out there.” during a tour defined by many geo- reached out to with Iranian The diversification drive has eco- political and economic considera- Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad nomic dividends as re- tions. Zarif visiting on the eve of defines its economic capabilities as Crown Prince Mohammed’s late- the Saudi crown prince’s visit. part of its Vision 2030 reform plan. February tour, which included During his China stop, Crown Saudi Arabia and signed stops in Pakistan, and China, Prince Mohammed signed a $10 eight commercial agreements, coincided with mounting regional billion deal with Chinese authori- mainly concerning energy, sports tensions with a flurry of threats be- ties for a petrochemical complex, and mining, worth some $20 bil- tween Pakistan and both India and which was announced February 22 lion. The crown prince called it “a Iran. following his meeting with Chinese first phase.” President Xi Jinping. While in India, Saudi officials Najah al-Otaibi, Both countries also pledged to signed a memorandum of under- a senior analyst at work together on China’s multibil- standing pertaining to it joining the Arabia Foundation lion-dollar Belt and Road Initiative International Solar Alliance, which Is the crown prince’s tour and Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 pro- it views as necessary to lessen its symbolic of Saudi Arabia’s gramme. domestic energy consumption. pivot to the East? Yes. There was more than economics The two countries, which initiat- in the Asia tour. Riyadh agreed to ed a $44 billion oil refinery project India vowed to retaliate against shore up cooperation with Pakistan in Maharashtra last April, report- Pakistan for the February 14 terror and India on counterterrorism mat- edly discussed $100 billion worth of attack in Kashmir during which 41 ters. investments during Crown Prince Indian paramilitary members were Beyond the individual visits to Mohammed’s stop in New Delhi. killed. Islamabad, Delhi and Beijing, many Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser, Tensions were also high between experts saw a Saudi pivot to Asia in speaking February 20 at the Saudi- Tehran and Islamabad. Just before the crown prince’s tour. India Forum in New Delhi, said the crown prince’s visit, a suicide “Is the crown prince’s tour sym- economic power was shifting from attack in Zahedan, in south-eastern bolic of Saudi Arabia’s pivot to the West to East. Iran, killed at least 27 members of East? Yes,” Najah al-Otaibi, a senior Nasser’s assessment was il- Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard analyst at the pro-Saudi think-tank lustrated during the final stop of Corps. Arabia Foundation, told Agence Crown Prince Mohammed’s Asia Diversification strategy. Chinese President Xi Jinping (R) meets -Presse. Jaish al-Adl, a jihadist group that trip. China is the kingdom’s biggest with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman bin Abdulaziz at In his tour, Crown Prince Moham- operates along the Iranian-Paki- trading partner and an economic the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, February 22. (SPA) stani border, claimed responsibility med was enhancing his country’s and military superpower. and Iran threatened Pakistan with diversification of its international “This was a ‘win friends and in- retaliation unless it acted against relations in a way that matches the fluence people’ type of tour,” James the front foot again.” that you can go elsewhere if the group. growing clout of Asian powers and Crabtree, a professor at the Lee Crabtree said the US-Saudi you need to.” While it said it would try to de- helps the kingdom weather the Kuan Yew School of Public Policy relationship remains the criti- escalate tensions between Pakistan strains in ties with Western allies at the National University of Singa- cal relationship for Riyadh “but Mohammed Alkhereiji is the Gulf and India, Saudi Arabia could only since the killing of Saudi journal- pore told Bloomberg TV. “This trip you want to have options and dif- section editor of The Arab Weekly. dismiss Iranian accusations, which ist Jamal Khashoggi last October in has been a big success. It has put ferent relationships and you want seemed to reflect Tehran’s concerns Istanbul. him [Crown Prince Mohammed] on to show your critics in America and P2 Widening protests in over Bouteflika’s re-election bid

Lamine Ghanmi abroad as protests spread from tra- before the April 18 presidential warned that the protests could be- thousands were killed had made ditional opposition strongholds to election. come violent. many Algerians reluctant to take other cities. He said “enemies Bouteflika, who turns 82 on “Many are fearful… that the situ- to the streets to challenge Boutef- Tunis from within” were attempt- March 2, has suffered from a series ation will slip out of control before lika’s government until now. ing to disrupt the process of health problems, including a the fateful date of April 18,” said However, about 25% of Algerians lgerians are increasingly stroke that left him confined political writer Mourad Slimani. under 30 are unemployed in the taking to the streets to to a wheelchair in 2013 “The experience of past unrest oil and gas-rich country and many protest President Ab- and has rarely been since showed that controlling tensions is of them have no recollection of A delaziz Bouteflika’s bid in public since. Bouteflika unpredictable since the authorities the fight for independence or the to seek a fifth term in office. -Dem was scheduled to travel are going blindly ahead with the “black decade” of the 1990s. onstrations took place February to fifth mandate.” There is concern that protests 22 across the country, including in Swit- Protests broke out February 22, “could be manipulated by activists Algiers, Oran, Tizi Ouzou, Bejaia, zerland especially in villages and towns in of the former FIS,” said political Annaba and Setif. in late Feb- the Berber-speaking Bejaia region, writer Hassan Saadoun. FIS is the Riot police used tear gas to dis- ruary for “rou- where the separatist Movement for French acronym of the Islamic Sal- perse crowds. Additional pro- tine medical checks,” the Autonomy of Kabylie is strong, vation Front, which was banned tests were expected. his office said. A Algerian media reported. by the military-backed authorities “No to Bouteflika and no government state- “No to the fifth mandate. No to in 1992. to Said,” crowds shouted in Al- ment said Boutef- the shame and humiliation,” dem- Most opposition leaders and giers, referring to the man who has lika would have onstrators shouted. independent figures opposing been Algeria’s president since 1999 a “short” stay in A pamphlet against Bouteflika’s Bouteflika’s re-election refused and his brother Said, a presidential Geneva. He went to fifth term handed out by protest- to attend a meeting organised by adviser. for five ers warned against radical Islam- Islamist leaders February 20 in Al- Demonstrators were not dis- days last August for ists bent on fomenting violence. giers to forge a consensus around suaded by mosque preachers who medical tests. Many Islamist leaders from Al- a common opposition presidential warned of the possibility of vio- Growing rejection. Protesters shout slogans Bouteflika’s cam- geria took refuge abroad after the candidate. lence. during a demonstration to denounce paign chief Abdel- Algerian military defeated extrem- Algerian military chief General President Abdelaziz Bouteflika’s bid for a malek Sellal, a for- ists in a civil war. Memories of that Lamine Ghanmi is an Arab Weekly Ahmed Gaid Salah cut short a trip fifth term in Algiers, February 22. (AP) mer prime minister, 1991-2002 war in which tens of correspondent in Tunis. 2 February 24, 2019 Cover Story Saudi Pivot to Asia Asia tour sets tone for future Saudi ties with Pakistan, India

Sabahat Khan as well as around $3 billion as de- ferred oil payment facility. Saudi Minister of State for For- Dubai eign Affairs Adel al-Jubeir said the “investment was for the benefit of sia’s booming economies the two countries.” However, there create exciting opportu- is a growing strategic undertone to nities for Riyadh to build the direction of Saudi Arabia’s ties A partnerships and share with Pakistan. the dividends. Saudi Crown Prince The formation of the Saudi-Pak Mohammed bin Salman bin Ab- Supreme Coordination Council dulaziz’s high-profile tour of Asia was announced. It will meet quar- aims to overcome interregional terly and have ten working groups hostilities and set the tone for the coordinating areas such as defence, future, especially in the context of security, intelligence and energy Pakistan and India. cooperation. The first leg of the crown prince’s Crown Prince Mohammed, tour to Pakistan culminated in a whose arrival was marked with a $20 billion investment programme national holiday, was conferred the covering oil refining and storage, Nishan-e-Pakistan (Order of Paki- petrochemicals, power generation, stan) — the country’s highest civil- minerals mining, agriculture, food ian award — by President Arif Alvi. processing and tourism sectors. Crown Prince Mohammed spoke of This is Riyadh’s largest direct in- Pakistan as a “dear country” and vestment into Pakistan. recalled the nations “have walked Saudi Arabia’s flagship project is together in tough and good times.” an $11 billion oil refinery and petro- Pakistani Prime Minister Imran chemical complex in the port city Khan requested the Saudi crown of Gwadar. It also set aside $4 bil- prince assist in diffusing tensions lion towards two regasified lique- with India following a terror attack fied petroleum gas plants and a $2 February 14 in Pulwama, Indian- billion fund for minerals mining. administered Kashmir, which killed more than 40 paramilitary fighters. India laid blame for the Pulwama The extent of Saudi attack on Pakistan and promised a ambitions is reflected by the “jaw-breaking” response. fact that Crown Prince Kashmir — disputed territory “First phase” of future economic ties. Saudi Minister of State for Foreign Affairs Adel al-Jubeir Mohammed has declared since 1947 — has seen a dramatic signs a memorandum of understanding with Pakistani Foreign Minister Makhdoom Shah Mahmood interest in investment resurgence of unrest in recent Qureshi (not pictured), February 17. (SPA) opportunities in India years and anti-India sentiment is at amounting to $100 billion. unprecedented levels in the Mus- lim-majority region seeking self- Modi’s core support base in- largest oil suppliers to India, deliv- in India amounting to $100 billion Beijing has heavily invested into determination. cludes right-wing Hindu voters ering approximately one-fifth of its across multiple sectors, including the $62 billion China-Pakistan Eco- The India-Pakistan rivalry has who have been blamed for violence requirements. India treats Saudi infrastructure, energy, manufac- nomic Corridor under its Belt and also been playing out at the Inter- and intolerance against minorities, Arabia as a “key pillar” of its ener- turing and housing, in the years Road Initiative, which is redraw- national Court of Justice over the including Muslims and Christians. gy security and this relationship is ahead. ing regional trade networks and case of Kulbhushan Jadhav, alleg- An amicable resolution of the expected to deepen as India nears Saudi Arabia identified India as Saudi Arabia, as the ’s largest edly a high-value Indian espionage Kashmir dispute would be a boon a deadline to find alternatives to one of eight strategic partners in its oil producer, stands to gain signifi- agent captured in Pakistan after to regional trade as well as interna- Iranian oil — its main source, tradi- Vision 2030. India, too, sees Saudi cantly for the oil export and invest- crossing over from Iran in 2016. tional security by removing one of tionally — to comply with US sanc- Arabia and its Gulf allies — the Unit- ment potential it would unlock. Saudi efforts to de-escalate the the world’s most plausible threats tions against Tehran. ed Arab Emirates in particular — as Saudi Arabia’s moves with Paki- crisis and encourage dialogue be- of nuclear war. Saudi-India ties Saudi Aramco is keen to begin key to energy security for sustained stan, described as the “first phase” tween the nuclear-armed neigh- have great potential that neither building the world’s largest inte- economic growth and unlocking its of future economic ties, follow an bours may be a futile exercise, given Riyadh nor New Delhi want com- grated oil refinery and petrochemi- potential. economic support package in Octo- that anti-Pakistan rhetoric serves promised because of conflict be- cals complex at Ratnagiri in Maha- ber that involved a $3 billion Saudi well in Indian politics. The govern- tween India and Pakistan. rashtra, a $44 billion venture. Sabahat Khan is based in Dubai deposit in the State Bank of Paki- ment of Indian Prime Minister Nar- India’s economy is energy hun- The extent of Saudi ambitions and maintains a cross-disciplinary stan to support foreign exchange endra Modi is preparing for general gry, with the fastest growing de- is reflected by the fact that Crown focus in international security, reserves, which had fallen almost elections in a few months after a mand for oil anywhere in the Prince Mohammed has declared in- defence policy and strategic 50% in the preceding 18 months, dramatic slump in popularity. world. Saudi Arabia is one the three terest in investment opportunities issues. Viewpoint Crown prince’s visits to India, China not only about oil he Asian tour of Saudi economical chessboard are aimed Pakistan as a threat to the devel- Vision 2030. Crown Prince Moham- at restoring confidence in the opment, with Indian support, of Xi’s meeting with Crown Prince Alessandro med bin Salman bin kingdom despite criticism of Saudi the Iranian port of Chabahar. Mohammed well fits increasing Arduino Abdulaziz buttressed involvement in the war in The Saudis are concerned that China’s presence in the Middle Saudi Arabia’s increas- and Pakistan’s refusal to join the Chabahar, as a link with India and East, a key foreign policy objec- ing integration of the Saudi coalition there. Asia, would enhance Iran’s region- tive. Also, just before the Saudi TAsian economic fabric and its Crown Prince Mohammed’s al ambitions. Saudi involvement delegation arrived in Beijing, Xi realisation of the shift eastward of stops in China and India were not in the Sino-Pakistan cooperation reassured Iranian parliament the global geo-economic order. just about oil; he intended to ex- is not based on common cultural Speaker Ali Larijani that China’s Crown Prince Mohammed’s pand cooperation with the Asian or ideological values but is instead close ties with Iran would stay visit to Islamabad reciprocated his powers beyond oil exports and driven by pragmatic economic and unchanged. October meeting with Pakistani imports of manufactured goods to security necessities. Chinese backing of Saudi Arabia Prime Minister Imran Khan in Ri- include industry and new tech- Riyadh had hoped to mediate is subject to fewer constraints yadh during the Saudi investment nologies. a reduction of Indian-Pakistani than that of India. Beijing relies on conference. The trip held out the The visits were also designed tensions following the February its decades-old principle of non- promise of economic support of to attract investment to develop 14 attack in Kashmir by Pakistan- interference that allows China Pakistan with more than $20 bil- Saudi industrial parks as well as based Jaish-e-Mohammad militant to avoid political manoeuvring lion in business deals and delayed a new space agency and deepen group that provoked an outcry among Gulf countries and in the payments for oil imports from the security cooperation. Beijing from India’s Hindus and calls for a Riyadh-Tehran dispute. kingdom. agreed in 2017 to build a drone as- harder stance against Pakistan and Saudi Arabia’s increasing Saudi support was just, given sembly plant in Saudi Arabia. The its supporters. economic integration with Asia that Chinese investment in the plant allows state-owned China Crown Prince Mohammed head- is not only a reaction to its recent China Pakistan Economic Corridor Aerospace Science and Technol- ed to China at the personal invita- cold reception in the West but (CPEC) is under scrutiny. CPEC, a ogy Corporation to produce the tion of Chinese Vice-Premier Han an acknowledgement of the shift flagship project of China’s Belt and CH-4 reconnaissance and combat Zheng. While there, the crown eastward of the geo-economical Road Initiative (BRI), promises $63 unmanned aerial vehicle. prince and Han led the third order. billion in infrastructure invest- While the trip to China focused meeting of the China-Saudi Arabia The West has sought for decades ments across Pakistan. on a broad spectrum of coopera- High-Level Joint Committee. to secure oil resources for its own Khan has, however, called for tion, the visit to India showcased The crown prince’s meeting energy security. The Saudi leader- The Saudis are a renegotiation of investment possible friction points related to with Chinese President Xi Jinping ship, however, recognises the concerned that terms considering security needed Indian Prime Minister Narendra was expected to showcase the strategic necessity to diversify its to protect Chinese workers and Modi facing elections in May. leaders’ willingness to upgrade international relations. Chabahar, as a link a slowdown in the expansion of As a result, Saudi support for their cooperation, including Saudi with India and Asia, Beijing’s economic footprint in Pakistan and concern that Sino- backing for the expansion of BRI Alessandro Arduino is the Pakistan. Saudi friendship could expand in the MENA region and Chinese author of “China’s Private Army. would enhance Iran’s Saudi economic moves on the “string of pearls” near India. economic and technological Protecting the New Silk Road,” regional ambitions. the troubled South Asian geo- New Delhi sees the Gwadar port in expertise to support the Saudis’ Palgrave-Macmillan, 2018. February 24, 2019 3 News & Analysis Gulf Security Yemen UAE works to counter evolving cyberthreats

Caline Malek devices come online. “The more dependency a nation has on information technology, Abu Dhabi the more damage it could suffer in case of cyber or electronic attacks,” s the world shifts towards he added. “Future cyberthreats integrating artificial intel- include cybercrime, cyberterror- ligence (AI) and machine ism and cyberwar. The threat has A learning into modern life, moved from a theatre in which you the defence industry in the Gulf is could easily define a real place of following suit. action to somewhere you are un- With the able to take notice whether there is introducing its AI strategy in 2017, organised crime happening.” transforming itself into a smart Ransomware has increasingly society and with an estimated 50 spread, with programmes such billion devices to be connected by as Stuxnet, Flame and Shamoon, next year, new models of threat are which was used in an attack on expected to emerge, turning data oil company Saudi Aramco in 2012 into the new oil. and deleted data on more than “The UAE is moving towards de- 35,000 of its computer systems. pending more on AI and trying to “Defence communities are pur- be a hub in this field but with this suing opportunities to develop come more challenges from the innovative capabilities that will side of technical security and gov- enhance their ability to anticipate, ernance, as well as training, aware- mitigate, respond to, recover from ness and building a culture around and, if necessary, defeat novel it, said Mohamed al-Kuwaiti, spe- emerging threats,” said Yehya al- cial adviser at the Supreme Coun- Marzouqi, executive director of cil for National Security, at the strategy at the Tawazun Economic International Defence Exhibition Council, the body in charge of de- and Conference in Abu Dhabi. veloping a UAE defence industry. spoke of reaching “cy- “Development of new Fourth ber-resilience.” Industrial Revolution technology- Major deals. Abu Dhabi’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Zayed al-Nahyan attends the International “From big data analytics, AI, enabled capabilities will require Defence Exhibition and Conference (IDEX) in Abu Dhabi, February 17. (Reuters) smart cities, the Internet of Things development of new operational and autonomous systems, coun- concepts in order to optimise their tries and militaries are focusing strategic, operational and tactical treme Soldering,” which discussed Matthew Cochran, chairman of UAE armed forces and $25.5 mil- on building these systems,” he ex- utility.” the creation of electronic tools the Defence Marketing Services lion was awarded to the French plained. “Many of those industries He said this constitutes another through integrating electronic Council in Abu Dhabi, said legacy company Thales to for Captas-type and governments are moving [in opportunity to create advantages parts, and “Artificial Intelligence” systems that do not have security sonar for the UAE Navy. that direction] to successfully con- for military and security communi- to learn different types of AI and but are in use at large power grids A $6.5 million contract was duct their mission.” ties and the global defence indus- how coding is used in program- could be the largest challenge. awarded to Al Jaber Group to pro- Adopting AI into defence mis- try, which can take a leading role in ming devices. “Until a complete overhaul in vide technical support services sions will require turning towards conceptualising applications of the “We are trying to embed many of Fourth Industrial Revolution sys- and supply spare parts for mili- the rest of the world, such as the new technology they develop. those cybersecurity aspects in the tems is done, we are all at risk,” he tary vehicles, while $8.2 million and NATO, to learn “Collaboration among academia, curriculum to spread such aware- said. “In today’s world of the Inter- was given to Al Rumaithi to supply the latest practices on their use government and industries is vital ness and move towards more pro- net of Things and AI, it is critical spare parts, repairs, technical con- and application. Although still in in order to design, develop and de- gramming and data scientist ma- that, not only defence companies, sultations and training for all UAE its early stages, Kuwaiti said com- ploy fit-for-purpose solutions to jors,” Kuwaiti said. but all organisations look at cyber- armed forces units. panies in the sector were building future challenges,” Marzouqi said. Ultimately, countries will have security and how to make their of- Tawazun Economic Council in- many of those aspects into their Work is kicking off in schools and to secure their defence systems fices, banks, schools and homes vested $125 million in the Russian systems, while keeping the last say universities, with initiatives across — and fast. Research and Markets safe.” automotive brand Aurus, which for humans. the United Arab Emirates targeting said that in 2017 the region’s cy- The value of military deals specialises in luxurious and ar- “This will always be the case,” he students from a young age. Cyber bersecurity market was expected announced during IDEX and moured vehicles. The investment said. “Machines can perform the Quest, by the country’s Signals In- to nearly grow from $11.4 billion in NAVDEX totalled $4.6 billion, with for 36% share of capital is to be analysis, finding and fixing where telligence Agency, was designed to 2017 to $22.1 billion by 2022. 20 contracts awarded to local com- directed towards the development need be but humans will have the encourage and motivate the next A 2016 report by Pricewater- panies and eight to international of the company’s manufacturing last word.” generation of cybersecurity pro- houseCoopers said the Middle East firms. facilities and capabilities. The Internet of Things poses fessionals. is a target of more cyberattacks The American company Digi- the greatest challenge to the de- Some of the workshops added to and with larger financial losses talGlobe received $41.5 million to Caline Malek is an Arab Weekly fence industry, he noted, as more last October’s edition include “Ex- than any other region in the world. provide space imaging services for contributor in Abu Dhabi. Viewpoint The false narrative surrounding the war in Yemen

ince the conflict in Yemen residence and key military installa- both political and religious divi- involving a milieu of competing broke out in 2014, it has tions in Sana’a and elsewhere sion. They aimed to spread their factions and parties from across the been largely depicted in It was only then that the Houthis’ Zaidi beliefs on the one hand and spectrum. Iman Zayat Western and some Arab true motives became clear and that carry forward Iran’s expansionist The false narrative surrounding media as part of a larger many Yemenis realised that the project on the other. the Yemeni conflict has taken the regional power struggle project of their so-called “saviours” In doing so, the Houthis opened a focus away from people’s le- Sbetween Sunnis and Shias. was nothing more than an effort to Pandora’s box, provoking both Sun- gitimate grievances, bolstering the This narrative has done a great exploit the weakness of the state nis and Shias to fight back, which Houthis’ sectarian game. disservice to the Yemeni people and gain absolute control over it. partially explains the vast prolifera- And, while the international and given a distorted picture of Today, little attention is paid tion of armed groups and militias focus on the violence afflicting the conflict. In reality, the conflict to the period when the Houthis on the ground. Yemen is understandable, it is in Yemen is a local one, pitting the sought to draft a new constitution In this environment, it is no important to remember how it Iran-backed Houthis against dozens to serve their agenda, demolished wonder we hear so much about started: with the Houthis’ ruth- of factions with diverse agendas houses of their political rivals and weapons changing hands and less imposition of their ideology and a range of ideologies. carried out assassinations in areas armed groups changing sides. and rule on all Yemenis, regardless Consider the period preceding under their control. Despite the nuances of the of their background. It is for this the Saudi-led coalition’s interven- Little is also said about their conflict, many analysts and experts reason that the Saudi-led coalition tion in the conflict in March 2015. attempted religious takeover. have taken the easy route, ex- felt the need to act to help stabilise Events during that time showed Sunni imams were systemati- plaining it as reflective of a larger the country. that the Houthi takeover was not as cally replaced with Houthi-allied geopolitical rift. Fortunately for some Yemenis, sudden as it has been made to be. Zaidi religious leaders, a move that This analysis is incomplete at the coalition has contained the Rather, it was a gradual armed ma- antagonised the local population best. Indeed, even within the Hou- Houthis’ influence in some prov- noeuvre, in which the Houthis and and sowed the seeds of the current this’ ranks, fighting, attacks and as- inces of the country, delivering supporters of former President Ali sectarian divide. sassinations have become increas- much-needed support and assis- Abdullah Saleh sought to push the The Houthis have attempted to ingly common. News reports say tance to the local population. legitimately elected government of reshape the country’s social fabric Houthi militias are likely behind However, in areas under Houthi President Abd Rabbo Mansour Hadi from within, with top officials, some of those who split from the control or that of other factions, from power. including Yemeni Information Min- group, including Abbas Mohammed the situation remains dire, with These two diverse parties joined ister Muammar al-Iryani, accusing Zaid, the Houthis’ former minister millions of civilians in the crossfire The Houthis opened a forces, staging what many Yemenis the Iran-backed militia of manipu- of sport. and suffering from food shortages Pandora’s box, from across the political spectrum lating school curriculums to serve Internal divisions in the Houthi and disease. provoking both viewed as a counter-revolution. their ideology. camp also became more apparent It is time for the world to consid- Their takeover began in August If true, this would provide following the defection of numer- er their plight and address the crux Sunnis and Shias to 2014 when the Houthis led protests further evidence that the Houthis ous ministers, namely former of the problem. Yet, this will not fight back, which against the government’s removal are less interested in peace than in Houthi Information Minister be possible if we continue to close of fuel subsidies. propping up a new generation of Abdul-Salam Ali Gaber and former our eyes to the crimes committed partially explains In doing so, the Houthis tapped extremists to prolong the conflict. Minister of Technical Education by the Houthis and the role they the vast proliferation into powerful social grievances Long before the Saudi-led and Vocational Training Mohsen Ali played in jump-starting the conflict of armed groups and gained more of a following. In coalition’s intervention in Yemen, al-Nakib. in the first place. January 2015, things took a dra- which, contrary to popular belief, These internal dynamics confirm and militias on matic turn with the seizure of the includes both Sunni and Shia the fact that the conflict in Yemen Iman Zayat is Managing Editor of the ground. presidential palace, the president’s elements, Houthis sought to foster is and always has been a local one, The Arab Weekly. 4 February 24, 2019 News & Analysis Renewed fears in Iraq over ISIS resurgence

Mamoon Alabbasi The US-led coalition said “the most hardened” fighters remain in Baghouz but the SDF did not rule London out that some ISIS militants may have left the Syrian village with ci- ears of a resurgence of the vilians. In the past, ISIS militants Islamic State (ISIS) in Iraq escaped from SDF prisons or made have increased as US-backed deals with Kurdish militiamen to se- F forces tighten their grip on cure safe passage. the last bit of territory held by the Concerns over the regrouping of militants in . The ISIS-held vil- ISIS militants are not limited to in- lage of Baghouz is not far from the filtration through the Syrian border. Iraqi border. “In Iraq’s remote villages and even Iraqi security officials said they large towns where ISIS once held feared ISIS militants fleeing Bag- sway, those same fighters come back houz during an attack by the Syrian after dark when Iraqi forces go back Democratic Forces (SDF) would in- to barracks. They assassinate those filtrate Iraq and regroup into sleeper who dare to stand against them and cells. with the Iraqi government,” report- An increase in Iraqi forces on the ed Kimberly Dozier, senior national border was apparent. “Mortar and security correspondent at the Daily artillery positions now line what Beast. was previously used as farmland for “They send a message that the Ira- local inhabitants whose sheep, cows qi control is surface deep and they and chickens watch warily as ar- remain the power to be challenged moured vehicles and men in desert or joined.” sand uniforms ply the narrow road,” Observers said abuses of the Iran- reported Al-Monitor website. backed Iraqi militiamen against the country’s Arab Sunni community were not helping the war against Concerns over the ISIS. regrouping of ISIS militants “They’re doing it again,” one uni- A not-too-distant past. A 2017 file picture shows a member of the Iraqi special forces wearing a watch are not limited to dentified Western official told the belonging to a former ISIS fighter in Mosul’s western industrial district. (AFP) infiltration through the Daily Beast. “You would think the Syrian border. whole ISIS experience would have convinced them.” Ghika acknowledged that “the so- Angela D. Nichols, assistant profes- minister of Iraq when ISIS captured British Major-General Chris Ghi- cietal fractures and inequities that sor in Florida Atlantic University, in Mosul in 2014, recently blamed “Zi- “We have thermal cameras and ka, the anti-ISIS coalition’s deputy aided the rise of ISIS are still here,” an article published by Conversa- onist Jews” of being behind the rise we are targeting them every night commander, told the Daily Beast reported the Daily Beast. tion.com. of the jihadists in Iraq. with artillery between around 9pm that fighters “who purport to be Shia Analysts warned that the country “Rather than prevent more fight- “They (Zionist Jews) are exerting and 3am,” an Iraqi major told Al- militia groups” were “operating out- remained under the threat of re- ing, our research suggests, Iraq’s efforts to thwart everything we have Monitor. side the rule of law and the control newed civil war. clampdown on Sunnis may spark achieved in Iraq. When they saw An unidentified Iraqi intelligence of appropriate authorities. That is “The government’s crackdown another civil war.” that we had escaped from the bot- official told the Associated Press something which concerns us.” on Sunnis — even those with no evi- Such warnings are likely to fall on tleneck, they brought us ISIS, terror- that the SDF handed Iraqi authori- Sometimes it’s not just the actions dence of ties with Islamic militants the deaf ears of many Iran-backed ists and the sectarians,” he said. ties more than 150 ISIS fighters. The of supposedly rogue militiamen that — sends a troubling signal about politicians in Iraq, who would rather fighters were reportedly the first are encouraging divisions among Iraq’s prospects for peace,” wrote direct the blame of the country’s Mamoon Alabbasi is Deputy batch of some 500 ISIS militants to countrymen but also government Eric Keels, a research associate at troubles to any side but their own. Managing Editor and Online Editor be transferred to Iraq. policies. One Earth Future Foundation, and Nuri al-Maliki, who was prime of The Arab Weekly.

Viewpoint Iran wants to rule Iraq without US presence

alls by Iran-backed Iraqi retaliation to the buildup of US forces militia leaders for the along the Iraqi-Syria border. Mourd- withdrawal of US troops hy denounced the United States’ Nazli Tarzi have grown in the past expanding presence in areas vulner- month but it’s far from able to Islamic State (ISIS) infiltration clear the efforts will be as an “occupation.” Csuccessful. The PMF, whether by way of its The militia leaders have the loyalty representatives in parliament or on of fighters enlisted in the Popular the battlefront, has made it abun- Mobilisation Forces (PMF) and are dantly clear that it will resort to force represented by the Fatah Alliance should the United States ignore “the and its allies in parliament. They wishes of the Iraqi people.” are rallying behind legislation that While drastic changes to US- proposes to sever military and, by Iraqi relations are desired by largely extension, political ties with the pro-Iran actors, they are unlikely United States. to happen any time soon. Despite Fadhel Jabir, a member of the the defeat of ISIS, the country faces Fatah-aligned al-Sadiqoun bloc, said abundant challenges, particularly in the bid to expel foreign troops is not stamping out remnants of the terror- Increasingly vocal. Leader of Asa’ib Ahl al-Haq militia Qais al-Khazali exclusive to US servicemen, hinting ist network. speaks during an interview in Baghdad, last January. (AP) that Turkish soldiers would also be Groups from across Iraq’s political asked to leave their bases in Iraq. spectrum view the United States’ Jabir’s remarks echoed calls by the dependence on US assistance — both requested by Baghdad. actions and base expansion across leader of Asa’ib Ahl al-Haq militia, military and economic. Iraq’s post- Iraqi Prime Minister Adel Abdul- newly liberated territory as a betrayal Qais al-Khazali, who confidently 2003 political system was heavily Mahdi’s administration said it has of promises of a draw-down in Iraq. predicted that the legislation would shaped by the United States. The given consent to US military pres- Some fear remarks from US President pass with ease in parliament. “I think militia leaders skimmed over the ence but not beyond the confines Donald Trump that America’s pres- more than half the members of par- objection of political figureheads of offering “training and advice.” ence in Iraq was needed to “observe liament reject the presence of Ameri- to an early US withdrawal from the Abdul-Mahdi reiterated the need for Iran.” can military forces as a matter of country. maintain partnerships with not only Pro-Iran politicians are trying to principle,” Khazali, who represents a Iraqi Army Chief of Staff Lieu- America but Iran, too. Abdul-Mahdi, sideline the United States so they 15-member bloc in parliament, told tenant-General Othman al-Ghanmi however, has not voiced support for could walk the path of conquest the Associated Press. told the Parliamentary Security and the militiamen-led efforts. alone in Iraq. Mimicking Iran’s posi- Iraqi media outlets reported that Defence Committee that “no firm The discourse of the militia leaders tion will only get Iraq so far. Altering a draft law had been submitted but decision has been reached” on the runs parallel to the deterioration its approach in pursuit of greater en- there is little evidence that corrobo- matter. Ghanmi voiced a preference of US-Iranian relations. Although gagement with both sides allows Iraq rates the claim. The draft, versions for US forces withdrawing from Syria relations between Baghdad and to reinforce its voice, drowned out by of which were leaked online, has not to briefly settle in Ain Assad Airbase, Washington are far from amicable, years of proxy conflict between two been officially presented to parlia- one of its 12 bases in the country, for Iraq to follow in Iran’s footsteps countries that place the interests of ment for a vote. before returning to the United States. would cripple more than enhance its others above that of Iraq. Iraqi Parliament Speaker Moham- Iraqi politician Saleh al-Mutlaq sovereign standing. The draft legislation represents a med al-Halbousi said he has not said calls for the withdrawal of US The strengthened position of the bold move but signifies little more received any bill focused explicitly troops were ill-timed because the Iran-backed militia leaders, thanks than a dress rehearsal of Iran’s inten- on the expulsion of all US troops country is still on high security alert. to their political arm in the Fatah tions in Iraq. If militia leaders scare from Iraq, reported Baghdad Today He told Al-Ghad television that when Alliance in parliament after May’s the United States into withdraw- Iraqi politician Saleh News. He did say, however, that a Baghdad invited the United States elections, has been used to lobby the ing its forces, it would give rise to a al-Mutlaq said calls vote in the coming legislative term back, “our parliament held no reser- government and seek to usher out security vacuum like the one that for the withdrawal of would look at “determining Ameri- vations or objections.” US influence. facilitated Iran’s ascent in post-2003 ca’s presence and the timeline of its In an unannounced visit to Bagh- Coupled with their political on- Iraq. US troops were stay in the country.” This implies that dad in February, acting US Secretary slaught, militia leaders have revved ill-timed because the US troops could be staying in Iraq of Defence Patrick Shanahan sought up threats of attacks against US Nazli Tarzi is an independent longer. assurances over the presence of US bases. PMF commander Mahmoud journalist, whose writings and films country is still on Iraqi militia leaders appear to have troops in Iraq. He reiterated that the Mourdhy stationed in Anbar released focus on Iraq’s ancient history and high security alert. overlooked the country’s entrenched United States’ presence was a statement threatening force in contemporary political scene. February 24, 2019 5 News & Analysis Syria Turkey’s geopolitical manoeuvres strike a sour note in Syria

Sami Moubayed ing Kurdish separatists from the border area. Erdogan had wanted an area 32km Beirut deep and 460km wide but he ended up with no more than 5km, which hen Turkish President is all the Trump administration was Recep Tayyip Erdogan willing to sign off on, conditioning, travelled to Sochi, Rus- however, that he uses no force to W sia, for talks with his wipe out his Kurdish enemies. Russian and Iranian counterparts in Putin disliked the idea from Day mid-February he knew the discus- One, saying he would only support sions would lead nowhere. it if Erdogan agreed that the safe Erdogan is highly focused on the zone would be administered by the March 31 municipality elections, Syrian government. Russian For- which his Justice and Development eign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Party is leading in full-gear. Zakharova stressed that Syria was He also fears that any deal with a “sovereign country” and that any Bone of contention. Fighters from Hayat Tahrir al-Sham attend a mock battle in anticipation of an Iranian President Hassan Rohani safe zone “must be decided directly attack by the regime in the countryside of the northern province of Idlib, last August. (AFP) and Russian President Vladimir Pu- by Damascus.” tin would put him on another colli- Putin came up with a counterpro- sion course with US President Don- posal, reviving the Adana Agree- maintains his authority to use force Sochi last September, the Turkish against the Turkish leader, describ- ald Trump ahead of Election Day. In ment of 1998. That treaty, signed to crush the Kurds when needed. It president promised to cleanse Idlib ing him as a “small US pawn.” January, Trump publicly threatened between Damascus and Ankara, is also more doable and guaranteed, from all HTS presence by no later He carefully avoided any criticism to “devastate” the Turkish econo- would normalise political relations especially if Russian troops man the than mid-October 2018. That dead- of Gulf countries and extended a my, sending shockwaves through- between the two countries, end the border area. line has been repeatedly missed. hand to the Kurds, sending a mes- out Ankara. state of belligerency and restore full Instead of finalising the deal at Instead of having them fight HTS, sage to the Turkish president that if Syrian sovereignty over entire towns Sochi, however, he delayed the Erdogan ordered withdrawal of two he doesn’t cooperate, the alternative Furious with Erdogan’s and villages occupied by the Turkish process, drowning it in nitty-gritty of his most powerful Syrian proxies, for both Syria and would be tactics, Assad delivered a Army since mid-2016. details. He revisited Idlib, for ex- Ahrar al-Sham and the Zinki Brigade. to put their full weight behind Kurd- speech three days after In return, it gives Turkey the right ample, hoping to divert attention They were redeployed near Kurd- ish militias. the Sochi summit, lashing to cross the border into Syria (up to of his counterparts, saying that he ish territories that Erdogan hopes to Addressing the Kurds without out against the Turkish 10km) in pursuit of Kurdish militias. would not support or turn a blind overrun by next spring. mentioning them, Assad said: “The Those troops cannot stay in Syria eye to any upcoming Syrian offen- Erdogan is using Idlib to delay pro- Americans will not protect you! You leader, describing him as and must coordinate their incursion sive on the north-western city, fully gress on the border area, waiting for will be a bargaining chip in their a “small US pawn.” with Syrian authorities. controlled by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham his elections to pass. That explains pocket and they have already start- Turkey’s 2014 elections were Putin suggested amendments to (HTS). why the next tripartite summit was ed bargaining.” marred with violence and election the original treaty, calling deploy- Putin had been brought to believe scheduled for April, not March. He He called on them to return fraud and any US meddling in this ment of Russian military police that Erdogan’s priorities had shifted refuses to take any action on Idlib, to the government fold, adding: year’s polls might have negative ef- across the border area, instead of a in Syria, from keeping Idlib (as it however, and yet will not allow the “Only the state will protect you fects on Erdogan and his ruling Jus- safe zone. had been since 2015) to overrunning Russians and Syrians to move on the and only the Syrian Army will de- tice and Development Party. Erdogan seems to prefer the the Kurdish towns of Ras al-Ayn, city as well. fend you if you join it and fight At the Sochi summit, Erdogan Adana Agreement over the US- Kobane and Tell Rifaat, which he Furious with Erdogan’s tactics — under its banner.” floated two proposals for Syria. proposed safe zone but cannot em- promised to do last December after and probably with implicit Russian The first is an American one, man- brace it now, not even slightly, fear- Trump announced his decision to approval — Syrian President Bashar Sami Moubayed is a Syrian dating a safe zone in Syrian ter- ing American backlash. Although it withdraw from Syria. Assad delivered a speech three days historian and author of “Under ritory, aimed primarily at keep- strips him of occupied land, Adana When Erdogan and Putin met in after the Sochi summit, lashing out the Black Flag” (IB Tauris, 2015). Viewpoint Syria chemical tactics could have dire consequences on future conflicts

hemical warfare has attack is alleged, defenders of the re- dominated the global gime declare that its victims gassed perception of the Syr- themselves. James Snell ian civil war. The use Hamish de Bretton-Gordon, a of chemical weapons, chemical weapons expert who has banned internationally, undertaken extensive humanitar- Cattracts its own condemnation but ian work in Syria, said: “Chemical the way the Syrian war is captured weapons have proven to be in Syria and communicated to the world morbidly brilliant for fighting in increased the horror and disgust its towns and cities. I believe Assad was crimes can inspire. first saved by the Ghouta sarin attack Video of civilians, especially chil- in August 2013 and this highlighted dren, enduring chemical poisoning to the regime how good CW [chemi- is hard to deflect or, once seen, to cal weapons] were. forget. “He had been fighting the rebels When the world has seemed for two years conventionally in most likely to punish or remove the Ghouta and they were making regime of Syrian President Bashar ground. The Ghouta attack, in my Assad, chemical crimes have most opinion, changed the shape of the clearly been the cause. Indiscriminate weapons. A Syrian man receives oxygen through conflict,” de Bretton-Gordon said. In August 2013, after a particu- a respirator following a suspected chemical attack on his town of The tactic thus proven to work, it (AP) larly visible sarin attack on Eastern al-Khalidiya in Aleppo, last November. was employed in other battles, used Ghouta and Moadamiya, the United to soften up or frighten entrenched States and its allies came close to written by Tobias Schneider and chlorine gas has featured heavily in urban defenders into surrender. intervening against Assad. Since Theresa Lutkefend, highlights how the way the Assad regime has fought “The 4-year Aleppo siege was then, on two occasions, the latter common chemical attacks were dur- its enemies. broken by the use of chlorine barrel joined by Britain and France, the ing Syria’s war and how central they Sarin, the chemical agent in use bombs in December 2016. Aleppo United States conducted air strikes are to the Assad regime’s military in the August 2013 attack, is harder was razed to the ground and con- against the regime because of its use strategy. to manufacture, with its precursor ventional bombs and bullets made of chemical weapons — in April 2017 The report tabulates at least 336 chemicals heavily sanctioned. no impression on those sheltering in Khan Sheikhoun and a year later chemical attacks that likely took The Assad regime nominally gave underground and in the rubble,” de for the chemical attack on Douma. place in Syria since the war began in up its chemical stockpiles in 2013, Bretton-Gordon noted. “The same Both the aborted intervention 2011. Of those, the authors estimate, making the production of dedicated tactic was used in Ghouta in Decem- and later actions were undertaken 98% were carried out by the Assad chemical weapons, rather than ber 2017 and Douma in April 2018.” regarding a red line drawn by former regime, with the remaining 2% the derivative chemical products, more That the Assad regime has made US President Barack Obama, in likely work of the Islamic State. difficult. chemical warfare an essential part which he stated that the use of Furthermore, nine-tenths “of all Schneider and Lutkefend note of its campaign to reconquer Syria is chemical weapons by Assad would confirmed attacks occurred after that chlorine is legal to import and one thing; that it did so without seri- not only constitute a crime but the infamous ‘red line’ incident of that chlorine gas itself is easy and ous punishment is another. would necessitate and incur interna- August 2013,” the report’s authors cheap to manufacture. Chlorine States can use these weapons tional punishment. write. is less lethal than sarin and thus without punishment and this makes States can use Although it may seem as though This alone would be a startling attracts less international attention their further use more likely by other chemical weapons these were unusual responses to revelation but more concerning is and less outright condemnation nations and by terror groups. instances of rare horror, this is not the extent to which chemical war- when it is employed. “But these weapons are abhor- without punishment the case. The rarity of this action fare became central to the regime’s Since 2012, and intensifying rent, indiscriminate and target and this makes their cannot be taken to mean that its strategy for taking territory and win- after 2013, the use of chlorine has civilians much more than military,” further use more spurs occurred rarely or in anything ning the war. become a backbone of the regime’s de Bretton-Gordon said. “Civilians, resembling isolation. From the first reported use of strategy. It is dropped in canisters after all, do not have gas masks.” likely by other nations “Nowhere to Hide,” a report for chemical munitions in Khalidiya from helicopters protected by the and by terror groups. the Global Public Policy Institute on December 23, 2012, the use of regime’s air supremacy. When an James Snell is a British journalist. 6 February 24, 2019 Opinion

Editorial Denouncing anti-Semitism he vehement denunciations triggered in Europe by recent manifestations of anti-Semitism are fully justified. The painting of swastikas and anti-Jewish slogans on dozens of graves in a Jewish cemetery near TStrasbourg, France, can only be described as racist crimes. They are an insult to all faiths. Last year, a group called “Muslims Against Anti-Semitism” took out a full-page ad in a UK newspaper, the Daily Telegraph, condemning anti-Semitism. “We understand that many in our country empathise with the Palestinians and their right to a sovereign state,” it said. “However, we must be ever vigilant against those who cynically use international issues to vilify Jews or promote anti-Semitic tropes.” As they strive to integrate into their host societies, Arabs and Muslims have no inspiration to receive from advocates of anti-Jewish bigotry. In free societies, there are better ways to defend legitimate Arab and Muslim stances than slandering others. Denouncing anti-Semitism, whatever its likely implicit innuendos, should not, however, justify the censorship of views that are critical of Israel © Yaser Ahmed for The Arab Weekly or of Zionism. Putting such criticism beyond the pale of legitimate free expression would be unfair to large segments of Western public opinion who espouse such views. When Iran’s rulers behave like A survey by the Institut Francais d’Opinion Publique stated that 57% of the French respond- ents stated a negative perception of Israel and Saddam Hussein 69% claimed a negative view of Zionism. Khairallah Khairallah In France, pro-Macron MP Sylvain Maillard It is no longer taboo in Iraq to object to Iranian hegemony. Anyone proposed legislation that would have criminal- ised anti-Zionism. The measure ended up being who has travelled to Baghdad recently detected it. withdrawn but not before triggering a polemic. French thinker Dominique Vidal criticised the hat is happen- Iran is repeating the mistake the country. initiative as “starting down a totalitarian ing in Iraq is that Saddam made in 1990 when The deal the Islamic Republic slippery slope.” not a normal he thought he could do what- struck with the Obama administra- Much like anti-Arab or anti-Muslim bigotry, develop- ever he wanted because Iraq had tion inebriated Iranian officials so anti-Jewish racism is not protected free speech. It ment by any become an unstoppable regional much that they did not pay atten- is too often advocated by the same intolerant standard. This power. tion to Iraqi public opinion or care groups in the West that promote intolerance Wimportant Arab country, one of Saddam did not correctly read one iota about Iraqi national pride. towards Arabs and Muslims. the pillars of the region since the the map of regional and inter- Information from Iraq shows It is also a staple of extremists’ narrative. The collapse of the Ottoman Empire a national balances. The US-led that among the most prominent terrorists who killed Jews in Paris in 2012 and hundred years ago, is experienc- invasion of Iraq in 2003 led Iran opponents of the Iranian role in 2015 happen to believe in the same distorted ing a change in its internal mood to believe that it could play the Iraq are people such as Haider al- interpretations of faith, which justify the slaying of Muslims who do not share their views. that will influence the balance of role of the dominant power in Abadi, whom Teheran prevented Much like anti-Muslim or anti-Arab bigotry, power in the region and beyond. the region. Tehran’s political and from serving another term as anti-Jewish racism has no place in today’s world. At the heart of this change lies a economic rulers — especially prime minister following the May shift in the Shia mood obvious to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali 2018 elections; Ammar al-Hakim; visitors to Baghdad. This shift is Khamenei — became obsessed and Muqtada al-Sadr. The issue of reflected in the popular rejection, with that idea because of their The new prime minister, Adel especially in Shia circles, that erroneous belief that Persia was Abdul-Mahdi, could not appoint ISIS returnees Iraq becomes a satellite country presented with an irreplaceable a minister of Interior even after he discovery of a mass grave holding at to Iran. opportunity to export its revolu- Iranian Major-General Qassem least 3,500 bodies in Syria’s al- Quite simply, an Iraqi national tion across the region. Soleimani had despaired from Fukheikha, near the Islamic State’s spirit is emerging again. In the Khamenei was oblivious to the bringing a leader from Al-Hashed former “capital” of Raqqa, offers a recent past, the best expression of fact that Iran had failed at all lev- al-Shaabi (the People’s Mobilisa- shocking glimpse into the extremist that spirit was the role played by els internally, especially that the tion Forces) to fill the position. group’s shop of horrors. Iraqi Shias in preventing Iran from Islamic Republic was relying more The objective of Soleimani’s move TMore than 3,800 bodies have been exhumed than at any other time on oil and since last year. winning the 1980-88 war, a war was to show that that group had The latest macabre discovery only shows the that ended with a near victory for gas revenues instead of focus- become an integral element of world some of the crimes committed by the Iraq that Saddam Hussein wasted ing on developing its economy, the Iraqi institutions, in the same Islamic State (ISIS), whose defeat on the battle- when he thought he could invade raising the standard of living and way as the Islamic Revolutionary field is near at hand. Kuwait. opening itself to the world rather Guard Corps in Iran. There is fear in the West of ISIS fighters Saddam had not thought twice than blackmailing it with its nu- How will Iran deal with the trickling back home. A heated debate was before committing his foolish clear programme. new developments in Iraq? Does triggered by the US president’s call for Britain, adventure and had no idea of Iraq, Syria, and Yemen it realise that changes it made France, and other European allies to its consequences. Instead of were among the victims of the on the ground, including sectar- take back the more than 800 ISIS fighters capitalising on the opportunity new phase of exporting revolu- ian cleansing, did not make Iraqi captured in Syria “and put them on trial.” that appeared when his people tion after the George W. Bush cities, such as Baghdad and Basra, In their reactions to Donald Trump’s call, blocked Iran’s ambitions, he, for administration handed Iraq on a look and feel like a suburb of European leaders showed no eagerness to take back nationals who had joined ISIS in years past. all practical purposes, signed his silver plate to Iran. It turned out Tehran? About 5,000 Europeans are thought to have gone own death warrant and shoved that gift was poisoned. The Basra summer is quite near. to fight in Syria and Iraq. About 1,500 are esti- Iraq in a dark tunnel. The gift was poisoned to the Summer in this city, with a Shia mated by police agency Europol to have returned Thanks to both its Shia and extent that Iran had begun to majority, begins in April. It is going to European countries of origin. Sunni components, Iraq had for perceive itself as the most im- to be difficult for Basra inhabitants The case of Shamima Begum, an ISIS follower eight years of conflict frustrated portant player in the region and to accept the misery of their lives, detained in Syria, has shown the conflicting Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatol- that nothing could stand in its without electricity or drinking wa- political, security and ethnic considerations at lah Ruhollah Khomeini’s desire to way, especially in Iraq, where US ter and amid endemic epidemics, hand. “export his revolution” that had President Barack Obama accepted especially when each of them is The British home secretary used his preroga- brought down the shah’s regime. in 2010 to let Iran have its way in aware of the role played by Iran in tive to strip Begum of her British nationality on killing every development project security grounds. The decision reflected fear- motivated expediency more than a well-thought- aimed at restoring the infrastruc- out strategy to deal with returning ISIS fighters. ture of the city. Other leaders in Europe seem inclined to take Basra is literally floating on oil. similar decisions. Where have the billions of dollars Many of them, in Germany for instance, of oil revenues gone? They’ve complain of the lack of information to investigate vanished since Iran and its proxy and prosecute the cases of the potential return- militias imposed a new pattern of ees. life in the city 15 years ago. It would be quite worrisome if the West’s It is no longer taboo in Iraq to decisions in this regard were affected by a object to Iranian hegemony. Any- breakdown or disconnect in security and intel- one who has travelled to Baghdad ligence cooperation within the international recently detected it. Sooner or community and between the West and Arab and Muslims nations in particular. later, there will be major changes Preventing and pre-empting attacks by ISIS in Iraq, where the average citizen outside the Syria and Iraq battlefields will hinge knows that the choice is clear on close anti-terrorism cooperation between between two lines. Either choose countries of the world. to have real institutions of a truly International support for Arab countries Iraqi state or have a state that dealing with thousands of returning jihadists is a serves as a cover for the Tehran- particular area where this cooperation will be controlled militias of Al-Hashed needed. The long-term implications of this kind Mood shift. An Iraqi protester holds up an upside-down portrait depicting al-Shaabi. of cooperation will be greater than Europe’s Iran’s former and current Supreme Leaders Ayatollah Khomeini and wariness about the unpopularity of seeing Khairallah Khairallah is a chickens come home to roost. Ayatollah Khamenei alongside a partially burned Iranian flag in Basra, last September. (AFP) Lebanese writer. February 24, 2019 7 Opinion

Chahed, Islamists and the Tunisian Published by Al Arab electoral calculus Habib Lassoued Publishing House Ennahda views Chahed’s new political project as the Publisher largest gathering of its opponents. and Group Executive Editor Haitham El-Zobaidi, PhD ight months before Syria and other hotbeds. Tight Editor-in-Chief presidential and manoeuvres. These sensitive files, however, legislative elections, Tunisian might turn out to be worthless Oussama Romdhani tension has become Prime if Nidaa Tounes continues its the dominant feature Minister downfall and if Chahed remains of the political scene Youssef prime minister during the Managing Editor Ein . Chahed march towards the elections, Iman Zayat The Ennahda Movement is in Paris, regardless of whether Tahya divided between maintaining February 14. Tounes turns out to be abusing Deputy Managing Editor the government of Tunisian (AFP) the means of the state. and Online Editor Prime Minister Youssef Chahed Some of Ennahda’s leading Mamoon Alabbasi or replacing it with nonpartisan personalities, especially those in technocrats to ensure the fair on some secrets, do not want to Senior Editor organisation of the coming elec- see Nidaa Tounes rise again nor John Hendel tions. do they wish for Caid Essebsi to The latter scenario happened win a second term as president. Chief Copy Editor during the 2011 elections when What they want is another big Richard Pretorius Beji Caid Essebsi, the current rival under whose wing they can Tunisian president, was head of find shelter. Copy Editors the government and in the 2014 political project as the largest second term as president. It looks unlikely that Ennahda Stephen Quillen elections with Mehdi Jomaa’s gathering of its opponents. It Then again, all that enthu- will abandon Chahed but this Kyle Arensdorf government. was able to learn what was being siasm might not be enough to does not prevent Ennahda from When Ennahda President said in Tahya Tounes leadership save Nidaa Tounes’s chances trying to secure concessions East/West Section Editor Rached Ghannouchi said there meetings, including discussions in the elections. True, Caid from Chahed, such as barring Mahmud el-Shafey (London) had been consultations about of working against Ennahda Essebsi’s party won the 2014 from Tahya Tounes those it forming a new government he after winning the next elections. vote, in part because of its anti- describes as “the exclusionists,” Gulf Section Editor was sending a coded message Chahed also received a full political Islam and anti-Ennahda allowing it to move with ease Mohammed Alkhereiji that Chahed would surely pick report on what was said during stance. Once it won the elec- in all of its positions of power, up. The first line of that message a meeting of Ennahda’s Shura tions, however, Nidaa Tounes continuing to protect it from Society and Travel tells Chahed that his govern- Council. The report sparked turned around and struck an dangerous accusations levied Sections Editor ment’s survival depends on widespread controversy because alliance with Ennahda, which, against it, especially by the left- Samar Kadi Ennahda’s mood and Ennahda it was the first breach of the in the end, led to its downfall. ist opposition, and continuing has one condition. strict secrecy of the meetings of The best proof was the to cooperate with it in parlia- Contributing Editor That emerged after the the Islamist party. scandalous result in the partial ment so it can push its agenda Rashmee Roshan Lall meeting of Ennahda’s political Ennahda said it has proof that legislative elections for the seat forward. bureau, which reiterated its re- those running Chahed’s project of the representative of the Tu- Undoubtedly, Chahed has jection of any attempt to use the are abusing state authority and nisian community in Germany. become expert at political Senior Correspondents means of the state for partisan means for partisan purposes. The Nidaa Tounes candidate manoeuvring since rebelling purposes. Caid Essebsi said it clearly in his couldn’t even muster 100 votes. against Caid Essebsi and Nidaa Lamine Ghanmi (Tunis) What Ennahda was alluding interview with The Arab Weekly The party also slipped signifi- Tounes, refusing to let them Thomas Seibert (Istanbul) to was Tahya Tounes (“Long live that Tunisians love whoever cantly in the municipal elections manipulate him. He has started Kelly Kennedy (Washington) Tunisia”), which was recently is in power and therefore will even though the government seeing the big picture and formed by activists who, mostly, always seek him out, even if he and its head were in the front proved his tactical abilities. En- Regular Columnists had abandoned Nidaa Tounes does not go to them himself. En- row of the party’s campaign. nahda is quite adept at steering Claude Salhani and who support Chahed. Much nahda also believes that. Can Caid Essebsi regain the in hot waters with nerves of Yavuz Baydar of Ennahda’s leadership was Chahed is more than certain trust of his voters and especially steel and at being pragmatic in hoping to strike an alliance with of that truth and that is why he that of the 1 million women who pursuit of its goals. Correspondents Tahya Tounes after the elections sees his position as the head voted for him in 2014? Both know what the oppo- to replace their entente with of the government is the only Contrary to what some say, site side wants and everybody Saad Guerraoui (Casablanca) Nidaa Tounes. guarantee for him to achieve Caid Essebsi won’t regain that can look forward to hot bouts Dunia El-Zobaidi (London) Ennahda worked with Nidaa positive results in the upcoming trust through his proposed law between them. The fact remains Roua Khlifi (Tunis) Tounes after the 2014 elec- elections. instituting equality in inherit- that each side needs the other tions but dropped it once its If, however, he and his gov- ance. He can do it only by har- for its survival, at least for the Chief Designer usefulness was consumed. By ernment are removed, he would assing and besieging Ennahda. time being. Marwen el-Hmedi adopting a systematic penetra- be abandoned and many would For that purpose, he would So, let’s wait and see what tion of Nidaa Tounes, Ennahda seek an appointment with Nidaa invoke many of the sensitive secrets, interests, schemes and Designers practically finished it off. Nidaa Tounes leader Hafedh Caid files of the Tunisian National surprises come until Tunisians Ibrahim Ben Bechir Tounes is but a shadow of its Essebsi, hoping to be accepted Security Council regarding are given the chance to vote former self, unable to pick up back into the party and securing Ennahda’s rumoured secret next fall. Hanen Jebali what remains of its scattered a place on the party’s electoral security apparatus, political as- ranks. lists. They won’t forget to appeal sassinations and recruiting and Habib Lassoued is a Tunisian Ennahda views Chahed’s new to Beji Caid Essebsi to run for a sending Tunisians to fight in writer. Contact editor at: [email protected] Is negotiating with ISIS an option? Stephen Starr To negotiate with ISIS would mean handing over large sums of money that may be Al Arab Publishing House Quadrant Building used to attack the very countries from whence the money came. 177-179 Hammersmith Road London W6 8BS eports have sur- of their citizens captured by came. It would also incentivise the fact that negotiations and faced that three ISIS and other jihadist groups. international terrorist groups, dialogue have helped create a foreigners held by More than a dozen Japanese, petty criminals and anyone in scenario in which senior Taliban the Islamic State Italian, French and other between to kidnap Western leaders work out of an office in Tel: (+44) 20 7602 3999 (ISIS) after disap- European journalists and aid citizens. Qatar not far from the largest US Fax: (+44) 20 7602 8778 pearing in Syria workers are alive today because Finally, there’s the fact ISIS military base in the Middle East. Rseveral years ago may be alive. millions of dollars were handed has unleashed an unprec- In the context of the Syrian This raises the question of how over to terrorists. edented and sustained wave of conflict, however, negotiation or even whether to negotiate However, no Western govern- terror across Europe where it would mean something quite US Publisher: their release. It raises complex ment has openly admitted to continues to be a formidable, different. It would save the lives The Arab Weekly USA LLC. strategic and moral dilemmas. making such payments. There’s hidden foe. of hostages, some held captive The Times newspaper in a strong argument that paying That said, research suggests for more than half a decade, and [email protected] London reported that ISIS ransom saves individual lives. refusing to pay ransom can be would consequently represent [email protected] fighters in Al-Baghuz Fawqani Others say it can be deeply just as damaging. A 2017 policy a singular and significant cause on the Iraqi-Syrian border damaging to countries and their paper by the New America for celebration. Tel: 248-679-6624 may attempt to negotiate the governments in the long run. think-tank states: “There is The Syrian war has produced handover of foreign hostages to Clearly, negotiating with ISIS, strong evidence to suggest that nothing but accounts of cru- secure their own safe passage a group that desires notoriety a no-concessions policy (as elty, brutality and destruction. out of the besieged district. more than acclaim, is laden pursued by the US and UK) puts Fuelled by the regime of Syrian There are reports the Italian with risk. There is good reason hostages at greater risk once ab- President Bashar Assad through priest, Paolo Dall’Oglio, who the US and UK governments ducted. And although ransom its release of hundreds of hard- went missing in Raqqa in July refuse to pursue that avenue. payments have undoubtedly ened jihadists from prison in Subscription & Advertising: 2013, British photographer John Negotiation with ISIS would be provided large sums of money 2011, the war produced one of [email protected] Cantlie, who was kidnapped in considered highly controversial to terrorist groups, for a group the darkest chapters in contem- Tel : (+44) 020 3667 7249 November 2012 and until 2016 and politically damaging. like [ISIS], kidnapping Western- porary regional history but as appeared in ISIS propaganda More important, it would ers is only a minor source of it now comes to a close, work- videos, and an unnamed West- set a dangerous precedent. revenue.” ing to negotiate the release of Mohamed Al Mufti ern humanitarian aid worker To negotiate with ISIS would Western countries and offi- detainees is an avenue the West Marketing & Advertising may all still be alive. Should the mean handing over large sums cials have in the past succeeded might wonder about. Manager West negotiate their return by of money — estimated at about with indirect negotiations with any means possible? $3 million in the case of each the Taliban, FARC and even Stephen Starr is the author of Direct: (+44) 20 8742 9262 Over the course of the Syrian European captive — that may be al-Qaeda for the release of “Revolt in Syria: Eye-Witness to www.alarab.co.uk war, some countries quietly used to attack the very coun- hostages and on other sensi- the Uprising” and has lived in chose to pay for the safe return tries from whence the money tive issues. Take, for example, Syria and Turkey since 2007. 8 February 24, 2019 News & Analysis Egypt Egyptians expect few hurdles to extension of presidential terms

Hassan Abdel Zaher be considered carefully. We are all problems of the past years.” responsible.” Giving the president an open-end- The amendments are to be debated ed presidency was one of the prob- Cairo by parliament’s Legislative and Con- lems the 2014 constitution wanted stitutional Affairs Committee, which to avoid. fter the dust settled on par- is headed by Abu Shoka. The panel Egyptian President Hosni liament’s decision to agree is to hear views of state institutions, Mubarak, who was brought down in in principle to constitution- civil society groups, trade unions the 2011 revolution, spent three dec- A al amendments that could and citizens. Abu Shoka confirmed ades in power and, opponents said, lead to Egyptian President Abdel there were plans to ensure that the was on the verge of establishing a Fattah al-Sisi remaining in power parliamentary sessions would be political dynasty, grooming his son until 2034, few say there is enough broadcast live on television. to succeed him as president. opposition in parliament or broader “I refuse any secrecy in what we The proposed amendments would society to derail the process. are doing, especially when this re- set presidential terms limits in Egypt “As long as the final opinion on volves around making changes to at two 6-year terms. A rider to the the amendments belongs to the the Egyptian Constitution,” Abu legislation makes Sisi, already elect- people… we must accept their opin- Shoka said. ed to 4-year terms as president in ion,” said Al Wafd Party Chairman If the committee, as expected. ap- 2014 and 2018, eligible to stand for Bahaa el-Din Abu Shoka in an inter- proves the final draft of the amend- two 6-year terms, giving him poten- view with state-owned Al-Ahram ments, they will be referred for a tially 20 years in office. newspaper. “Whatever the major- final vote by parliament. If passed “Present political conditions are ity chooses must be accepted by all by two-thirds of parliament, as is totally unsuitable for introducing [Egyptians].” likely, a general referendum would amendments to the 2014 constitu- A total of 485 members of Egypt’s be scheduled. It is also likely to back tion,” said MP Mohamed Amin, the 596-seat parliament voted to ap- the amendments. deputy head of the centre-right Con- A strong support. Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi speaks prove the amendments “in princi- Many are focusing on how the servative Party. “Some of the arti- at the parliament meeting hall in Cairo, last June. (AFP) ple” on February 14, leading many Egyptian public is likely to vote. Pe- cles of the constitution haven’t had politicians to express caution about titions and social media campaigns enough chance for application.” amending the 2014 constitution. have been set up by backers and op- Amin was echoing some in the dential election campaigns were that Sisi’s supporters are acting un- The controversy revolves around ponents of the issue. general public who might otherwise preceded by grass-root nationwide democratically despite the contro- special dispensation that would al- “Two presidential terms, each of be supporters of Sisi but who fear petition campaigns, numbering in versy surrounding the proposals. low Sisi to seek an additional two which is only four years, are far from Egypt could be turning its back on the tens of millions, calling on him “On the contrary, these amend- terms in office after his current term enough for the president to com- aspired democratic practices. to stand for president. He won the ments were proposed by lawmakers, — his second 4-year term — ends in plete the projects he has started,” Most expect the amendments to 2014 election with 96.9% of the vote not the president or the presidency,” 2022. said MP Atef Nasser, the head of the easily pass through the parliamen- and the 2018 election with 97.1%. said Tarek Fahmi, a political science “History bears witness to every- parliamentary bloc of the Nation’s tary process and the referendum, If the proposed amendments are professor at Cairo University. “There thing we do now,” warned constitu- Future Party, which controls about given the strength of Sisi’s support. added to the constitution, many ex- are no threats to the peaceful transi- tional law expert Shawqi al-Sayed in 40% of parliamentary seats. Almost all the nation’s 112 political pect a similar petition campaign to tion of power because there are in- an opinion article for the privately “The conditions in which the parties are backers of the president. urge Sisi to accept the extension. stitutions in this country.” owned Al-Masry Al-Youm news- 2014 constitution was drafted were Sisi is not the head of any politi- With parliament leading the paper. “It will have no mercy on exceptional, which was why the cal party and is generally viewed as charge to amend the constitution Hassan Abdel Zaher is anybody… The way the proposed articles of this constitution came rising above the partisan political and the move seemingly backed by a Cairo-based contributor to amendments are drafted needs to to reflect fears from repeating the milieu in Egypt. Both of his presi- most of the public, few can argue The Arab Weekly. Turkish extradition raises fear among Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood exiles

Hassan Abdel Zaher A photograph of Hussein on an airplane bound for Cairo with his hands handcuffed behind his back Cairo went viral and Brotherhood figures in Turkey reportedly were consid- gyptian Muslim Brother- ering their situations. hood members in exile in “I expect all Egyptians in Turkey Turkey are reconsidering to be killed, me being the first one,” E their status after it was re- said Saber Mashhour, a Muslim vealed that authorities extradited Brotherhood journalist. “Our infor- a Brotherhood member wanted in mation has been given to Egyptian connection with an assassination. intelligence,” he added in a video Egyptian national Mohamed Ab- posted February 8 on Twitter. del Hafiz Hussein, 25, a known Mus- Mashhour’s was one of several In uncharted waters. A file picture shows supporters of the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood taking lim Brotherhood member sought postings by Muslim Brotherhood part in a rally in Ankara. (AFP) by Egyptian authorities arrived at members who fled Egypt for Tur- the Istanbul Ataturk Airport on Jan- key. Egypt and other Arab countries uary 16, from Mogadishu, . have outlawed the Muslim Brother- Relations between Egypt and firmed that Hussein explicitly Brotherhood could be the first sac- Hussein was reportedly seeking hood and designated it as a terrorist Turkey remain strained over the asked for asylum and was refused. rifice if Turkey seeks a return to the asylum in a country that had previ- organisation. issue. Cairo had requested the ex- Many wonder whether this indi- regional fold. ously welcomed high-profile Mus- The Hussein incident was a few tradition of hundreds of figures cates a change in Ankara’s position Turkey remains gripped by an lim Brotherhood members since weeks before nine Muslim Brother- convicted in court. Turkey is home on accepting Muslim Brotherhood economic crisis, with Ankara miss- the ouster of Islamist President Mu- hood members were executed for to several Brotherhood television exiles. ing out on potentially lucrative hammad Morsi in 2013. their roles in the Barakat assassina- channels that often criticise the Maher Farghaly, an Egyptian ex- plans to use major Mediterranean tion. Although Hussein has been Egyptian government. pert on Islamist groups, said Turkey natural gas discoveries to set up convicted and sentenced to death Turkey sought to play down the was no longer a safe refuge for the a regional gas market. Egypt, Is- The view among political in absentia, he is to be retried. incident, including investigating Brotherhood. rael, Cyprus, , , observers in Cairo is that the “The fear among the members of airport officers responsible for the “Rifts are appearing among and the Palestinian Authority an- Muslim Brotherhood could the Brotherhood in Turkey is quite decision to return Hussein to Egypt. Brotherhood leaders and members nounced the establishment of the be the first sacrifice if clear,” said Sameh Eid, a former A senior adviser to Turkish Presi- in Turkey,” Farghaly said. “There East Mediterranean Gas Forum in Turkey seeks a return to the member of the Brotherhood and a dent Recep Tayyip Erdogan tried to is also a possible change of heart in January, a grouping that Turkey regional fold. specialist in Islamist movements. calm fears in a February 6 opinion Ankara as far as the Brotherhood is was pointedly not invited to join. “Most of these escaped members article for the pro-government Yeni concerned.” “These regional alterations will do not know what the future holds Safak newspaper. “During the lead- Despite the leverage it enjoys in eventually force Istanbul to change However, Hussein was flown for them.” ership of (Egyptian President Abdel Syria and the close connections it is its regional policies,” said Bashir Ab- to Cairo, where he had been sen- Turkey was among several coun- Fattah) al-Sisi, Turkey has not and developing with Qatar, Turkey has del Fattah, a researcher at Egypt’s tenced to death in absentia for his tries, including Malaysia, Sudan does not hand over anyone fac- become increasingly isolated in the Al-Ahram Centre for Political and involvement in the June 2015 assas- and Qatar, that Brotherhood figures ing the death penalty or any other broader Middle East, analysts said. Strategic Studies. “If this happens, sination of public prosecutor Hish- escaped following Morsi’s down- charges,” Yasin Aktay wrote. The view among political ob- Turkey will view the Brotherhood am Barakat. fall. However, Turkish media con- servers in Cairo is that the Muslim as a group that it no longer needs.” February 24, 2019 9 Debate Sudan

Why Washington has changed its view of protests in Sudan

of human values and his material- and abandon the opposition. istic beliefs. He probably believes Many countries visited or ad- Mohamed that by observing neutrality about dressed by al-Bashir, secretly or Aboelfadl the situation in Sudan, there is publicly, did not provide him with a chance to maximise US inter- the required support. People must ests there if the al-Bashir regime have feared the possibility that rides out the crisis and ends the standing by him might hasten protests with minimal bloodshed his downfall. The battle for his tatements attributed to in the streets. succession would kick off and be- US Secretary of State There is also the US administra- come terrible if his successor was Mike Pompeo on Sudan tion’s complex attitude towards picked from outside his circle. indicate a shift in the former President Barack Obama’s That street protests continue in United States’ posi- legacy and his support of the Sudan, with the demonstrators tion. “We hope that the “Arab spring” uprisings, which, it becoming innovative in keeping Speople’s voices will be heard and must be said, left the Trump ad- the flames burning, indicates that a transition will be achieved,” ministration with a few regional al-Bashir did not understand the Pompeo said. crises on its hands. political lessons from Arab coun- Before those words, delivered Trump and his administra- tries that tried to stop the people February 15, it seemed the US tion have overcome some of from taking to the street. For the administration was not very them but the repercussions have masses to take to the street is easy. interested in what was going on made Washington hesitate before What’s not easy is getting back in Sudan, believing perhaps that supporting new uprisings. The them into their homes. Khartoum could contain the situ- Americans fear the re-emergence Sudden interest. US Secretary of State Mike The uprising in Sudan is differ- ation. of dark scenarios attributed to the Pompeo during a news conference, February 15. ent from those of 1964 and 1985 The degree of US interest in United States with the purpose of (Reuters) in terms of circumstances and Sudanese affairs depends largely bringing down the regimes in the mechanisms. Unlike those, this on the issues of fighting terror- region. The United States’ support pect in the eyes of many people one might lead to a radical change. ism and handing over extremists. of popular uprisings in Arab coun- because of their negative political The time factor is no longer use- The US media have not given the tries caused a lot of damage and outcome. That hypothesis could ful to those who use it in power protests in Sudan a great deal ruined relations with some. be true and was probably behind and rely on it to overcome demon- of attention. Eight years ago, The reports that reached the some support that Khartoum strations. On the contrary, it has uprisings that swept many Arab Oval Office must have painted a received. become a positive tool for protest- countries were top news in the scenario in which Sudanese Presi- However, protests have been ers who realise that the regime has United States. dent Omar al-Bashir was going to recurrent in Sudan and that is an nothing to mitigate the crisis and Clearly, specific determinants crack down on the demonstra- indication of the extent of anger know that time may turn in their have made the Trump administra- tions with various tools, including and frustration pent up in the favour. tion opt for a relatively accom- an iron fist, bargaining, exploiting country. People would rather con- The developments in Sudan all modating attitude towards the divisions and a palace coup, if front the regime, even if it costs point in this direction. Al-Bashir Sudanese regime. Once again, necessary. them dearly. In many countries, has not been able to resolve the Washington suddenly forgets The Sudanese populace has including the United States, the crisis and there are no indications all about democratic values it is sustained the street protests for public started paying attention to he will do so soon, either by secur- seeking to entrench in the minds about two months, with no sign the situation in Sudan and gradu- ing economic assistance or by of the world and not heed the of relenting. On February 22, al- ally sided with the protesters. ensuring that major international right of the Sudanese people to Bashir went so far as to declare a The signs of the change in the powers do not get impatient with protest. year-long state of emergency to American position are significant Sudan. At the top of the list of these de- try and quell the protests. on many levels. They indicate This works in favour of the terminants, we find US President The crisis has taken a politi- that al-Bashir is running out of protesters. There are going to be Donald Trump’s atrophied view cal dimension and is no longer ideas and will not remain stand- surprises in Sudan’s political fu- confined to economic demands. ing in a long confrontation with ture. The signs are evident every Obviously, the protesting masses protesters. The crisis may get out passing day as protesters roam the The time factor is no longer are willing and ready. of control at any time and it may streets and al-Bashir fails to come useful to those who use it in In its dealing with the crisis, be too late for al-Bashir to secure up with solutions. Khartoum was counting on the financial aid that would alleviate power and rely on it to notion that previous popular up- Sudan’s economic crisis and con- Mohamed Aboelfadl is an overcome demonstrations. risings in the region became sus- vince the masses to calm down Egyptian writer. Sudan’s real bogeyman

about “foreign conspiracies” and region and its successes or failures be, Mr President.” (My apologies to resorted to them as a pretext for have a tangible effect on them. The situation Gabriel Garcia Marquez.) more oppression, is itself a con- There are massive Arab invest- in Sudan is This is the real bogeyman in Ali al-Sarraf spiracy against Sudanese liveli- ments in projects, many of which nobody’s Sudan. He has been scary for so hoods. failed because of governmental handy work long that people have had enough Look at skyrocketing inflation mismanagement and instability. but of him. Whenever they consider rates since al-Bashir took over to Despite the infamous Gulf their situation, all they find are see the extent of the disaster. dispute, al-Bashir’s government al-Bashir’s. poverty and hunger, so they took udanese President The bogeyman could have been has received support from both to the street to face al-Bashir and Omar al-Bashir did not scary if it had been a foreign agent sides. Saudi Arabia sent over two his bogeymen. specify the foreign pow- or if there had been any remaining delegates and Qatar promised In 1989, the US dollar was worth ers inciting the protests breathing space in which protest- financial support. 12 Sudanese pounds. As an expert against his government. ers could cower in fear and retreat No one really wants Sudan to fall in the use of “bogeymen,” al- He presents this claim but al-Bashir’s government did not into chaos, not out of concern for Bashir told his people that day, in Sas a bogeyman to intimidate his leave any space for the people to its failing government but rather a boastful warning, that if he had fellow citizens but that is not the retreat to. out of concern for the stability of not carried out his coup, the dollar only bogeyman that al-Bashir has If every protester returned a country of paramount regional would have been worth 20 pounds. employed nor is he the first head home, he would soon be back on importance. Nobody in Sudan expected the of state to use a bogeyman. Many the street because he wouldn’t find While Egypt wields influence disaster that happened next. tyrants before him have done so. anything in his kitchen except for over Sudan, its relations with al- Today the dollar trades for 70-80 The problem is that invent- a greater urge to get back to the Bashir’s government are devoid of Sudanese pounds. If we could go ing scarecrows and bogeymen street. “bogeyman” and lack the incentive back in time and put back in the is a twisted ruse. Outwardly, the This is something that neither to incite against its authority. zeroes that had been purposely “inventors” are trying to frighten al-Bashir nor his ruling party un- I tried my best to find one enemy wiped out from the figures in the others but they are the ones being derstands. They cannot feel what of Sudan but I couldn’t find any. Sudanese budgets, we would see frightened. millions of Sudanese are suffering, If the media could reveal schemes the extent of the poverty that is Al-Bashir has every right to be perhaps because of the fortunes and intentions, then I could not bending people’s backs and the afraid of his own bogeyman be- they amassed through corruption. find any media source that con- daunting bogeyman stirring panic cause he has made many mistakes. The Sudanese have kept patient cerned itself one day with over- in al-Bashir’s chest. The Sudanese, like all God’s for a long time, way too long actu- throwing al-Bashir. Al-Bashir’s bogeyman is himself. children, did not ask for miracles ally. Al-Bashir and his government I did, however, find a bogey- He is the one who will turn out to from their government but it failed have had time and time again man in Sudan, one that carries a be the scary creature if he were put at everything anyway. You can see the chance to make up for their stick and gesticulates threats at his on trial as a soldier who constantly these failures in every aspect of failures but the results have always citizens. Sometimes this bogey- betrayed his word and his people. the Sudanese’ lives, and the gov- been disappointing and the people man wears a military uniform and The situation in Sudan is no- ernment’s failure has reached the got fed up with a situation that sometimes he gives orders to his body’s handy work but al-Bashir’s. price of their daily bread. only went from bad to worse. security forces to crack down on There were no reckless policies but I don’t know what more al- Who is the bogeyman anyway? the citizens and encourages them his own and no one else caused Bashir needs for him to admit that Sudan has no foreign enemy; to shoot at protesters. the Sudanese to go hungry more he let his people down and that his maybe a couple of haters but no Throughout 30 years, the bogey- than he has. regime, which has always whined enemy. Even the United States, man ruled over the poor Sudanese To hint at the fact that it is time which had imposed lengthy sanc- with an iron fist. He violated the for al-Bashir to go, the Sudanese tions on Sudan, got what it wanted rights of his opponents and cre- are the ones who are asking him: To hint at the fact that it is and restored relations with al- ated specialised “ghost rooms” “What time is it now, Mr Presi- time for al-Bashir to go, the Bashir’s government. for torture so his victims would dent?” He, however, is still quite Sudanese are the ones who are As to those who hate Sudan, know who to be afraid of. Even his brazenly scaring them with the what they hate about it are its fail- ministers are so afraid of him that bogeyman. asking him: “What time is it ures. Sudan is a vital area for the when al-Bashir asks what time it is, now, Mr President?” interests of many countries in the they’d answer “It’s as you wish it to Ali al-Sarraf is an Iraqi writer. 10 February 24, 2019 News & Analysis Maghreb New party launched in Tunisia with Chahed leading from behind

Lamine Ghanmi parliament, thwarted an effort by Nidaa Tounes last year to remove Chahed as prime minister. Tunis However, statements from En- nahda officials indicate the party upporters of Tunisian Prime could be changing its stance. On Minister Youssef Chahed February 17, Ennahda President laid out plans to advance a Rached Ghannouchi raised ques- S new political party, Tahya tions about his party’s future sup- Tounes, but it is unclear whether port for Chahed. the party can overcome divisions “We are in consultations with all in the country’s secularist ranks. parties about whether the current Despite Tahya Tounes being government will lead the country widely described as “Chahed’s par- during the elections or be replaced ty,” its founding members have yet by an elections’ government or to confirm whether Chahed might a cabinet of technocrats,” Ghan- officially join as leader of the party. nouchi said. For now, he will be leading from A second attempt to oust Chahed behind. from power could throw Tuni- sia into even murkier waters and Chahed has faced criticism from Bottom-up approach to governance. Selim Azzabi, general coordinator of Tunisia’s new political political opponents and Islamist deepen the rift between secularists party Tahya Tounes, at his first news conference in Tunis, February 21. (AFP) allies, who claim he is forging a and Islamists. “state party” ahead of legislative Chahed has weathered numer- and presidential elections this year. ous chapters of unrest during his will be overseen by independent We are not thinking about the elec- Azzabi stressed that Tahya Tounes The controversy comes at a deli- three years in office and is thought figures not affiliated with the party tions now,” he added. was not against any other party, cate time for Tunisia, which is fac- to be weighing a run for president — Chawki Guedass, a law professor “The focus of the head of the including Ennahda or the leftist ing a lingering economic crisis, in December. and head of a privacy protection government is on the govern- Popular Front. political uncertainty and growing Tahya Tounes, formed January agency, and Najla Braham, a judge. ment’s affairs and needs of the Tu- “Tahya Tounes aims at tackling polarisation between Islamists and 27, emphatically backs Chahed as “It is a strong message to rebuild nisians. That gives us a respite and one big issue that faces Tunisia: secularists. prime minister and said it plans the bridges of trust and confidence a chance to build a new political building a strong party,” he said. “Tunisia’s political transition to put forward an innovative plat- between the Tunisians and poli- movement that does not depend “You can win control of the parlia- is in trouble,” said the Interna- form to be competitive in this tics,” said Azzabi. “The measures on a leader.” ment, government, the presidency tional Crisis Group in a February year’s elections. we take to build the party are part and municipalities but you can do report. “There is reason to fear Selim Azzabi, a former chief of of the necessary guarantees for the nothing in terms of change and that the country may backslide staff of Tunisian President Beji citizen that his voice counts and Chahed has faced reform if you do not have the belt from its post-2011 democratic Caid Essebsi and who is Tahya can make the decision.” criticism from political of political support from a strong opening ahead of presidential and Tounes’s general coordinator, said To refute accusations that opponents and Islamist party.” parliamentary polls at the end of the party would be organised on Chahed is using his position to ad- allies, who claim he is Embarking on a membership the year.” a bottom-up approach to govern- vance the party’s fortunes, Azzabi forging a “state party” drive before the elections, Tahya The report warned that tensions ance. said: “The head of government has ahead of legislative and Tounes will be likely drawing mem- between secularists and Islamists He said members would vote on not taken part in a single meeting presidential elections bers from the very fractious con- could morph “into violence before party leaders on March 2, select- or activity of Tahya Tounes.” this year. stituency of Nidaa Tounes, which elections.” ing the heads of 370 local offices in Pressed on whether Chahed was founded by Caid Essebsi. Chahed, 43, a secularist who town districts and villages across would be the party’s candidate in Azzabi’s remarks made it clear Its future and that of Nidaa broke with Nidaa Tounes last year, the country before electing 33 re- presidential elections, Azzabi did that Chahed would not be in Tahya Tounes are closely tied. Their abil- could lose his position as head of gional offices. not deny the possibility but said: Tounes’s leadership lineup at least ity to challenge the Islamists will government if he fails to retain Party members will vote at party “The party is being built. One thing for now. depend on how effectively secular- support from the Islamist Ennah- offices with contenders offering at a time.” Parliamentary and presidential ists can reorganise before elections da Movement. Ennahda, which competitive programmes and ide- “Our efforts, energy and atten- elections are scheduled for late whatever the party banner they has the most seats of any party in as, said Azzabi. Vote monitoring tion are now in building the party. this year. adopt. Radical Islamists push back against Haftar campaign

Michel Cousins with its former opponents. Its two would be considered a criminal and most powerful components — the crushed “with an iron fist.” About Tripoli Revolutionaries Brigade two weeks ago, it had denied the Tunis of Haithem Tajouri and the Abu mountain town was divided or that Sleem Central Security Force of Ab- anyone there backed the LNA. Jit- ost of the focus on dul Ghani al-Kikli — have no ideol- ters about the possible advance of in February was on the ogy. They are generally considered the LNA are beginning to show. sweep through south- pragmatists. M ern Libya by the Libyan However, the shifting political National Army (LNA) led by Field- sands in southern Libya and the The day before the eighth Marshal Khalifa Haftar. The mili- fears that the LNA would move on anniversary of the NATO- tary moves have given him control Tripoli dramatically altered the sit- supported Libyan uprising, of the region’s important oilfields uation, turning former opponents a gathering of Islamist and virtually all habitation centres. into potential allies. radicals pledged to fight Apart from a handful of Tebu- As one Libyan political commen- Haftar and military rule and tator observed, both groups are populated areas near the border to establish a radical with Chad, Haftar controlled the “panicking at the prospect of Haf- south and eastern Libya and more tar moving towards the capital.” political party called the than 90% of the country’s oil pro- A nervous momentum appears Libyan National Assembly. duction. to be building behind the “revolu- To the north, in Tripoli, where Militia politics. A member of a brigade loyal to Libya Dawn takes part tionaries,” even if they represent a The TPF is seen key to what hap- life continues unaffected and calm, in a military parade in the city of Sabratha, west of Tripoli. (AFP) minute minority of public opinion pens next. It has accused Haftar there was a related and no less po- in the west of the country. of attempting to achieve power tentially momentous development. There have been exhortations, though “military dictatorship,” The day before the eighth an- umbrella group of Tripoli militias scribed as a “military coup by too, from the hard-line Islamist expressing its support instead for niversary of the NATO-supported that provides security in the capi- Haftar in 2014.” Grand Mufti Sadiq al-Ghariani to elections. If it and the so-called February 17 Libyan uprising, a tal for the Presidential Council and There was nothing about the po- “revolutionaries” in Zawia and revolutionaries were to consolidate gathering of Islamist radicals, 2011 its Government of National Accord litical coup in 2014 by Libya Dawn Gharian as well as in Misrata, Zintan their apparent new relationship “revolutionaries” and militia fig- (GNA). supporters who forced the inter- and the Tripoli suburbs of Tajoura there would be serious concerns ures pledged to fight Haftar and The new party’s pledge to fight nationally accepted government to and Suq Al-Juma to fight Haftar. for the future of Sarraj, the Presi- military rule and to establish a radi- military rule — as opposed to Haf- flee Tripoli. Broadcast on his Turkey-based dential Council and the GNA. The cal political party called the Libyan tar’s military campaign — is being The presence of the Tripoli mi- Tanasuh TV station, it is not clear revolutionaries do not recognise National Assembly. treated with scepticism given that litias at the party’s introduction though what effect the exhorta- them as legitimate and the TPF has Present were members of the for- it has a military wing, promoting raised eyebrows. These were the tions will have. Although looked the power to run them out of town. mer Libyan Islamic Fighting Group, comparisons with Lebanon’s Hez- same militias that defeated sup- up to by many so-called revo- Were that to happen it would leave a radical Islamist group; other Is- bollah, and fears that the move- porters of the Libya Dawn regime lutionaries, Ghariani is derided the United Nations’ Libya plans in lamists, including members of the ment is intent on establishing a in late 2016 and 2017 when it tried throughout western Libya, referred tatters. Libya Dawn regime that ran the in- Libya Dawn Mark II government by to retake Tripoli. That was before to as “Sharshabeel,” the wizard in However, if the LNA’s progress ternationally spurned government force. relations between the TPF and the the Arabic version of the “Smurfs” stalled, the natural fault line be- out of Tripoli from mid-2014 until A significant indication of the Presidential Council head Fayez al- cartoon series. tween the TFP and the radicals early 2016; and militia command- new party’s ideology and reason Sarraj started to sour. Recently in Gharian, however, could be expected to reassert itself. ers from western Libya. for existence was provided by a Questions are being asked about the local protection force an- These included the important spokesman who said Libya’s cri- how serious is the TPF’s interest nounced that anyone in the district Michel Cousins is a contributor to Tripoli Protection Force (TPF), the sis stemmed from what he de- in the new party and in working who supported Haftar and the LNA The Arab Weekly on Libyan issues. February 24, 2019 11 News & Analysis Maghreb

Morocco feels IMF urges Maghreb’s economic integration vindicated on

Lamine Ghanmi Western with US bill Tunis Saad Guerraoui he International Monetary Fund (IMF) spurred North African countries to work Casablanca T for improved economic integration to achieve higher eco- orocco welcomed US leg- nomic growth and improve global islation that makes funds trade positions. M allocated to availa- “Greater regional integration ble for assistance in Western Sahara.

should be complementary to T he bill, part of an emergency Maghreb countries’ global integra- spending measure signed February tion,” the IMF said in a report as- 15 by US President Donald Trump, sessing gains each country could requires that funds appropriated realise from integration as the re- under Title III for Morocco “shall gion marked the 30th anniversary be made available for assistance for of the creation of the Arab Maghreb Western Sahara.” Union (AMU). The Moroccan Foreign Ministry welcomed the bill as reinforcement The IMF said regional of US policy to back a negotiated so- integration could raise lution to the dispute over the West- ern Sahara region based on Moroc- each AMU member’s GDP co’s proposed autonomy plan. growth by an average Morocco annexed Western Sa- of 1 percentage point. hara in 1975 and maintains it is an integral part of the country. The Leaders of Algeria, Morocco, Algeria-backed Polisario Front be- Mauritania, Tunisia and Libya ex- gan an armed conflict with Morocco changed messages February 17, for an independent state that lasted the anniversary of the 1989 launch Challenges and hopes. A 2016 file picture shows Tunisian Foreign Minister Khemaies Jhinaoui until the United Nations brokered a of the AMU, speaking of the hope speaking during a meeting of the Arab Maghreb Union (UMA) Foreign Affairs Council in Tunis. (AFP) ceasefire in 1991. of reviving the union as a “strate- Rabat has proposed a form of gic choice” despite a stalemate in autonomy under Moroccan sover- achieving the group’s bold goals. achieving greater economic com- a result of integration and would could then travel on trains every eignty for the territory. The proposal “Great ideas like the AMU never plementarity, despite its members’ support growth, increasing em- day between Morocco and Algeria was rejected by the Polisario Front, die but, for now, the progress of the historical and cultural bonds. The ployment,” the IMF said. and more than 22,000 tonnes of which insists on the right of the Sah- AMU train is blocked by the West- IMF report said individual coun- AMU Secretary-General Taieb merchandise would be transported. rawi people to self-determination in ern Sahara issue,” said Mauritanian tries of the Maghreb are the least Baccouche credited the AMU with Population and merchandise a UN-monitored vote. expert Mohamed El Mokhtar Ould integrated in the world. “several achievements, including flow between Maghreb countries Fouad Yazourh, Moroccan direc- El Khalil at a meeting of regional in- “The share of intra-regional trade the continued efforts to build a has been hampered by the lack of a tor-general of Bilateral Relations tellectuals in Hammamet, Tunisia. is less than 5% of the Maghreb Maghreb highway network and the free trade agreement, strife in Libya and Regional Affairs, told Moroccan “Algeria and Morocco have failed countries’ total trade, substantial- progress made by studies related to and the closure of borders between news channel MediTV that legitima- to reach a solution on that issue ly lower than in all other regional a Maghreb railway, which has be- Algeria and Morocco since 1994. cy returned despite lobbying cam- while the three other countries trading blocs around the world.” come an achievable dream.” The IMF study stated that paigns by supporters of the Polisario have yet to succeed in unblocking The IMF said regional integration The AMU received a grant from many benefits would accrue to Front, in allusion to Algeria. the impasse,” he added. could raise each AMU member’s the African Development Bank to the Maghreb from integration, as “All these countries (the United The AMU, which includes Alge- GDP growth by an average of 1 per- modernise the integrated railway “openness promotes poverty re- States and EU countries) know that ria, Morocco, Tunisia, Libya and centage point. network between Morocco, Algeria duction by accelerating growth. they can only deal with countries Mauritania, has yet to deliver on “While strong domestic policies and Tunisia. The plan involves the Also, removal or reduction of im- that have credible and stable insti- closer security cooperation, coor- remain the main economic driver, expansion of 2,350km of railway by port tariffs on imported goods re- tutions in the region. Morocco, as a dinated diplomatic stances or on intra-regional trade may double as 2060. More than 36,000 passengers duces their prices to consumers.” key player in both North and Africa, can only be dealt with seri- Viewpoint ously,” said Yazourh. Ali Bahaijoub, editor of North- South News in London, said the Moroccan subsection in the bill was A united Maghreb could play greater role on the world stage a new dimension added to the fa- vourable position taken by the US weapons from the Soviet Union, Only Tunisia is working to detriment of North Africa where administration regarding the au- France was happy to arm Morocco improve economic ties with its only Tunisia argues genuinely in tonomy plan. and Libya as a means of putting neighbours, Libya and Tunisia. favour of greater cooperation. “Washington believes it is time to Francis Ghilès pressure on Algeria. The European Union has never The idea that the Western find a solution to this everlasting is- Since 2011, the advent of put its full weight behind trying to Sahara dispute might be put on sue that has dragged on for over four democracy in Tunisia and the risk bring Algeria and Morocco closer, ice and trans-regional investment decades,” said Bahaijoub. of jihadist terrorism moved essentially because French elites promoted to build trust, which is The US measure was enacted af- Algerian and Tunisian security have long shown greater under- what China and India have done ter the adoption by the European orth Africa has been and military much closer. Today, standing of Moroccan strategic even though their boarder Union of agriculture and fisheries gripped for more more than 1,000 Tunisian interests than Algerian one. dispute in the Himalayas remains agreements that cover all of Moroc- than a generation by companies operate in Algeria. Moroccan companies and banks unsolved, finds no favour in co, including the disputed territory. any number of The lead France took in NATO’s support Moroccan King Moham- Algiers or Rabat. Politics continue “We are witnessing homogeneity fears. intervention in Libya in 2011 has med VI’s push into West Africa, a to trump economics. between legislative and executive Morocco argues not endeared it to Algeria, whose move some see as much political The balance of economic and powers at the European Union in Nthat it cannot allow its energy worst fears of the negative fallout as it is economic. Yet those same political power has shifted in a voting for the agriculture and fisher- supplies to depend on its eastern of the collapse of the Libyan companies and banks do not hide manner few in the West envis- ies agreement with Morocco,” said neighbour, which would, in terms regime have been borne out. their conviction, behind closed aged. The “Arab spring” bought Yazourh. of Algeria’s resources and In the western Maghreb, the doors, that the Algerian market democracy to Tunisia but, except “This is a clear signal that the EU proximity, be the obvious Morocco-Algeria standoff over would be worth all of West Africa for Libya, the Maghreb has been is with Morocco and looks forward supplier. the status of Western Sahara has put together. spared the bloodletting of the to a positive move from the Algerian Algeria is fearful that its frozen political and economic Today’s ageing and ailing heads Middle East. government that holds the trump neighbours, Morocco and, to a relations between the two of state are unable to provide the The greatest challenge the card for any future settlement,” said lesser degree, Tunisia, are only countries. Efforts to integrate the daring leadership their predeces- region faces is high levels of Bahaijoub. interested in expanding their region through the shared use of sors did in the 1980s. unemployed young people. A European Commission report export markets and acting as Algerian-sourced gas works well The huge benefits of economic Greater ties of trade and invest- in September 2017 stated that an as- predators of its considerable oil in Tunisia but not in Morocco, integration in the Maghreb are ment, joining forces economically sessment of the effects of the socio- and gas wealth. which plans to build regasifica- analysed in fine detail in the would add millions of jobs and economic benefits of such support Such reciprocal economic fears tion plants on its Atlantic sea- International Monetary Fund help give people hope for the showed improvement in working feed on unsolved political issues board rather than buy gas from report “Economic Integration in future and allow the region to conditions for tens of thousands of and one another. They play on the Algeria. the Maghreb, An Untapped Source have its own voice on the world fishermen and farmers, including in internal characteristics of the As a result, Algeria is pushing of Wealth.” Similar exercises were stage. the Sahara region. regimes that have become more of its gas to the Iberian conducted by the World Bank 10 However, trade and investment The US bill also calls on the ad- masters at using fear of the other Peninsula through its Medgaz years ago and by the Petersen flows obstinately tie North ministration to submit, after con- to slow any serious evolution pipeline with rather than Institute’s “Maghreb Regional and African countries to their former sultation with the UN refugees towards more democratic forms through the pipeline that crosses Global Integration: A Dream to be EU countries, not to one another commission and the World Food of government and more equita- Morocco. The latter is thus Fulfilled” in 2008. despite the centuries-old ties of Programme, a report to Congress on ble sharing of national wealth. deprived of much-needed If anything, the arguments in religion, family and tribe, not to measures taken to strengthen the Governance has improved at a throughput royalties. favour of economic integration say, at least in the central monitoring of delivery of humani- rate that is much slower than that The hope of economic integra- are stronger today than a decade Maghreb, shared French colonial tarian aid to refugees in the Polisa- in other places, notably Asia. tion in the Maghreb improved in or so ago. Yet politics trump past. rio-run refugee camps near Tindouf. Such fears have often been the 1980s when Moroccan King economics. Morocco promotes Future generations will not An estimated 100,000-200,000 encouraged from abroad as the Hassan II and Algerian President the idea of importing gas from easily forgive Maghreb leaders for refugees live in dire conditions in region has been caught up in the Chadli Bendjedid understood that by a gas line under the their lack of vision. Economic camps near Tindouf in south-west- broader swirl of international growing economic links were an sea, which is technically but not integration in the region remains ern Algeria. affairs. For many years, until the untapped source of wealth. They economically feasible, while Alge- another Loch Ness monster. mid-1980s, Algeria’s support for trusted each other. ria’s refusal to change its dated Saad Guerraoui is a contributor the Liberation Organisa- Trust completely broke down in economic model makes it arro- Francis Ghilès is an associate to The Arab Weekly on Maghreb tion was not looked upon kindly recent years between the two gant vis-a-vis Morocco. fellow at the Barcelona Centre for issues. in Europe. As Algeria bought economic giants of North Africa. Politics trump economics to the International Affairs. 12 February 24, 2019 News & Analysis Political Islam Interview Egyptian scholar sees ISIS as ‘last phase’ of Islamic fundamentalism

A short Mustafa Abid biography of Abd al-Jawad or decades, the Yasin Arab world has been experiencing the takfiri and exclu- bd al-Jawad Yasin is sionary intellectual an Egyptian writer winds of Islamist and thinker. He gradu- fundamentalism. A ated from the Faculty FThese ideological currents have of Law at Cairo University in gone deep into social structures 1976 and joined the judiciary and fragmented and divided branch after graduation. He has societies by portraying a written many books about po- different image of the religion, litical systems and thought and which is essentially a belief in focused on critiquing Islamic God and a commitment to heritage and religious thought. morality. His books are required reading These currents turned reli- in Arab projects aimed at re- gion or, more precisely, people’s examining interpretations of conception of religion into a Islamic heritage. Some of his destructive tool and an impedi- books are (Arabic titles trans- ment to human development. lated): Since change is part of the ● “Introduction to the natural laws of societies, Jurisprudence of Contempo- religious fundamentalism has rary Jahiliya” (1986) nowhere to go but disappear. ● “Power in Islam: Salafi This is the gist of the thesis of Thought Between the Scrip- Deconstructing radicalism. Islamic intellectual and philosopher Abd al-Jawad Yasin. (Al Arab) Islamic intellectual and philoso- tures and History” (1998) pher Abd al-Jawad Yasin, who ● “Power in Islam: Criticism has been engaged for 30 years in mentalist thought played a role tions are constantly changing political Islam movements. The of Political Theory” (2009) deconstructing radical Islamist in presenting the worst practi- but economic development has Muslim Brotherhood movement ● “Religion and Religiosity: thought. cal model of religiosity in Islam. not seriously affected social, was the first generation and Legislation, Text and Consen- “Political Islam groups have He developed and defended his economic and mental struc- then came the ideas of Sayyid sus” (2012) no future and we are now unorthodox theories in his tures. At its beginnings, how- Qutb and Abul A’la Maududi, ● “Theology” (2018) witnessing the dying stage of books (published in Arabic ever, progress shook the which were adopted by the the cycle of fundamentalism in under Arabic titles) “Power in prevailing religious system a Muslim Brotherhood. When the Arab world,” Yasin said. “We Islam: Salafi Thought between little bit. Yasin insisted on Qutb’s ideas were merged with practice in Islam and these are experiencing the effect of the Scriptures and History,” distinguishing the religious precepts of fundamentalist people were most hostile to the third generation of the “Religion and Religiosity” and system from religion itself. Salafism, the amalgam gave reason and most intolerant of Islamist movement and this his latest book “Theology,” Because of that early experi- birth to organisations such as others, the common people with generation is the most brutal published by Mominoun ence with progress, the reli- al-Qaeda and similar groups. their popular version of Islam and violent and that confirms Without Borders, as well as gious system adopted a pre- They became representatives of were closer to reality and more that the life cycle of these dozens of research and scien- emptive strategy against the second generation of acceptable and tolerant of movements has reached its peak tific studies of fundamentalism, modernity, drawing on criticism political Islam. others.” and that they will end soon.” religion and society. of modernity in the West. The Yasin said organisations such Yasin said the solid mass of Yasin specialises in Islamic Yasin spoke to The Arab religious establishment claimed as ISIS are the last generation of Muslims remains resistant to studies. He was born in 1954 in Weekly in his home. He was this criticism of modernity political Islam. That is why that fundamentalist thought. This Zarqa, north of Cairo. He focused and enthusiastic would work in its favour but it movement was more brutal, mass, with its popular religios- studied law and philosophy at through the two-and-a-half- overlooked the fact that mod- bloodier and more intractable ity, is more in tune with pro- Cairo University and joined the hour interview, demonstrating ernism had removed the reli- than other similar movements. gress and change and more judiciary at the request of his command of his subject matter. gious order and overtaken the Of course, political and social capable of adapting to reality. It father. He became interested in Yasin asserted that political essence of religion in the West. conditions contributed to the coexists peacefully with all Islamic thought at an early age Islam was “one of the intellec- Yasin said the same phenom- emergence of this movement faiths. and was biased towards free- tual cycles of modern history in enon would happen in the but it is in its waning phase and Common Muslim folk accept dom in its “metaphysical” the region. It emerged as the Muslim world. will disappear like the others and befriend Christians, live meaning, that is to say the successor of the cycle of before it. With its disappear- with Jews and even tolerate opposite of imposition, regard- left-wing political thought and ance, Islamic fundamentalism Salafists and atheists. That’s less of its origin. He champions sought to oppose the status will gradually fade away. just the way they are. They individual and collective quo. Another aspect of the “Political Islam It is the first generation of accept life with all of its aspects. freedoms against the idea of a political Islam movement is that political Islamists — the Muslim They listen to music, sing and totalitarian state. it also constituted a pre-emp- groups have no Brotherhood of the late 1920s in accept to mix with the opposite Yasin’s early writings were tive reaction against the future and we are Egypt — who bear responsibility sex. Even so, they would still violent and extreme and globalised movement of human now witnessing the before God and history for consult the “official version” of represented an extension of the development that was overtak- distorting religion and distort- religion on some matters and ideas of Sayyid Qutb and of ing the world by force.” dying stage of the ing its image,” Yasin said. may or may not accept its Abul A’la Muwdudi. With the During the 13th and 16th cycle of The Muslim Brotherhood “has verdict. publication of his first book, centuries in Europe, Christian divided the umma into two Yasin reiterated that encour- “Muqaddimah Fi Fiqh Al-Jahili- fundamentalism went through a fundamentalism in factions and Islam into two aging this popular version of yah Al-Mu’asirah” (“Introduc- similar stage in which European the Arab world.” versions and resorted to the religion is a pressing and tion to the Jurisprudence of societies experienced radical initial fundamentalist ideas necessary step because popular Contemporary Jahiliya”),” he transformations of economic, Islamic intellectual found in the historical system Islam is the only bastion brandished the weapon of takfir social and mental structures. and philosopher and presented them as the capable of absorbing and or accusation of apostasy in the The Roman Catholic Church, religion of God and what He uprooting fundamentalism and face of society. Fellow Islamist which was the dominant Abd al-Jawad Yasin wants from His faithful,” he of bringing back the spirit of writer Fehmi Howeida consid- religious authority controlling said. acceptance and tolerance ered him “a revivalist of Qutbist legislation, society and politics, In “Power in Islam,” Yasin said towards all. thought.” tried to resist the trends but was He pointed out that the Islamist movements and groups He stressed that, almost After that, Yasin said he forced to voluntarily relinquish religious system faces two main had corrupted the Muslim mind exclusively in Arab environ- undertook a fundamental its authority. problems. The first is that it is by considering politics as ments, the role of the state has review of his ideas, without bias Yasin said European sociolo- an exclusive system. It believes related to religion or as an always been to support popular this time. He tried to rediscover gists, such as Auguste Comte, that it is the sole holder of the integral part of it. religiosity. Therefore, the state religion by applying a philo- Max Weber and Emile Dur- truth. This belief contradicts Asked about the concept of must abandon its hesitation in sophical and scientific approach kheim, predicted the fading the pluralism and diversity “reforming religious discourse” dealing with fundamentalism to it and concluded that the way away of religion as the domi- affirmed by the Quran. championed by some Arab and with what it thinks is the we think and practise religion is nant power in societies. With The second problem is that it governments to counter funda- fake authority of religious not composed of elements of the progress of scientific believes in freezing vision and mentalist thought, he paused institutions. the absolute revelation but of knowledge and awareness in point of view and this belief is for a moment, then, with a sad Yasin said Islam recognises historical and social compo- Europe, it was said that reli- incompatible with human look on his face, said: “It is a secularism in many ways; the nents dating to the first three gious thought would fade progress. These contradictions softened version of the concept man, therefore, cannot under- centuries of Islam and particu- gradually until it vanished. cannot survive, added Yasin, of religious reform that was stand why some countries insist larly of ideas related to the History has proven them and the prevailing religious bravely used in the early 20th on stating in their constitutions political struggles and conflicts wrong, however. In the West, systems in the Arab world, century. Some governments are that Islamic law is the main of that period. The resulting the sacred made a strong especially political Islam, will still trying to appease the source of their legislation. conceptual system is not comeback. What faded was the inevitably disappear. religious terrorism that still Obviously, the move is just a humanistic in the sense that, for social history that was affixed Yasin said the Islamic State inhabits the minds of so many plain attempt to appease the the most part, it conflicts with to religion and not the essence (ISIS) is the “last chapter in the people.” religious establishment. the ideas of freedom and of religion itself — God and expansion of fundamentalism.” He said that “if the people of reason. morality. He explained that ISIS is the Hadith were the ones who Mustafa Abid is an Egyptian Yasin concluded that funda- In the Muslim world, condi- third generation of modern officially codified religious writer. February 24, 2019 13 News & Analysis The West and ISIS Returnees Fate of foreign fighters could fan tensions between key players in Syria

Thomas Seibert fighters that we captured in Syria and put them on trial.” Otherwise, Trump added, “we will be forced to release Istanbul them.” European governments rejected he question of what to do Trump’s demand. Some countries, with thousands of foreign such as the and extremists stranded in Syria Germany, argued that their citizens T could fan tensions between should face justice in Syria, where key players in the nearly 8-year-old their suspected crimes as ISIS fight- conflict. ers were committed. Several foreign powers, reluctant The YPG-dominated Syrian Demo- to take their citizens back because cratic Forces (SDF), a US ally in the they see them as potential terrorist fight against ISIS, also wants foreign threats to their own countries, want states to take back their citizens. foreign fighters of the Islamic State Abdulkarim Omar, co-chairman of (ISIS) and other radical groups to foreign relations in the SDF region in be dealt with in Syria, either by the north-eastern Syria, said there were courts or by military force. approximately 800 detained fighters Those goals could strengthen Eu- from nearly 50 nationalities, in addi- ropean concerns about Turkey’s plan tion to at least 700 wives and 1,500 to move against the Kurdish Peo- children kept in camps. ple’s Protection Units (YPG) militia Omar, speaking after Trump’s in north-eastern Syria, where 3,000 statement, insisted that the SDF captured ISIS fighters and family would not release ISIS prisoners. “We members are held in YPG camps, and will not release them. We could never could raise tensions between Russia do this,” he was quoted by Reuters as and Turkey in the north-western Syr- saying. ian province of Idlib. Omar reiterated warnings that any The European Union’s Radicalisa- attack on the region by northern tion Awareness Network said more neighbour Turkey, which has vowed than 42,000 foreign fighters from to crush the YPG and its political more than 120 countries headed to mother organisation the Democrat- Security dilemma. A woman (C) carrying a baby is escorted into a vehicle in Syria’s north-eastern city Syria to join ISIS. Among them were ic Union Party (PYD), would spark of Qamishli, after she was accused of belonging to ISIS. (AFP) about 5,000 fighters from Europe, chaos, allowing jihadists to escape. about one-third of whom had re- Ankara says the YPG and the PYD are turned to their countries, the net- terrorist organisations and a threat to nario could see Turkey taking over ians to head to Hatay province in the reasons Russia intervened militarily work said in a report in 2017. Turkey’s national security. holding camps for ISIS fighters and southern parts of a refugee-tired Tur- in Syria. Moscow preferred a limited “Of course, the PYD wants political their families after a military inter- k e y.” fight against HTS managed by Turkey Some countries, such as the reimbursement for its contribution to vention. “This means the Russian-Turkish to a comprehensive assault by Syr- the fight against ISIS, which includes In Idlib, thousands of fighters, de-escalation zone around the re- ian government troops because that United Kingdom and taking care of prisoners of war,” many of them from Chechnya and gion is only a temporary solution, as could drive extremists out of Idlib, Germany, argued that their Magdalena Kirchner, senior analyst other parts of the former Soviet Un- it parks the remaining jihadists in a she wrote. China also offered military citizens should face justice at Conias Risk Intelligence, said via ion, are encircled by Syrian govern- no man’s land of sorts until Moscow support because Uighur fighters from in Syria, where their e-mail. She said “protection against ment troops. A Russian-Turkish deal and Ankara resolve their differences,” the Xinjiang region in western China suspected crimes as ISIS a Turkish offensive” was at the top of has prevented a Syrian attack on the Pierini concluded. are hauled up in Idlib as well, Kirch- fighters were committed. the PYD’s wish list. area, much of which is under con- Kirchner pointed out that concern ner added. Europe and Turkey had been at trol of al-Qaeda-linked Hayat Tahrir about a possible return of Chechen Recent gains by HTS in Idlib had The Soufan Centre, a US think- odds over the foreign fighters is- al-Sham (HTS). However, the agree- and Uzbek fighters was one of the driven pro-Turkish and foreign fight- tank, put the number of foreign fight- sue for some time, Kirchner wrote. ment might not last because Moscow ers under the HTS banner apart, ers from Russia and the former Soviet Last year, Turkey protested a plan wanted to make sure that the fighters Kirchner wrote, adding: “This could Union at close to 9,000, while more by France to have foreign ISIS fight- never return to their countries, Marc lead to intensified Russian and Syrian than 15,000 are from Middle Eastern ers tried in PYD courts because that Pierini of Carnegie Europe wrote in a More than attacks on Idlib.” and North African countries. could lead to international recogni- recent analysis. The lack of an international con- The issue of foreign fighters gained tion of the PYD “through the back “Russia wants to wipe out ji- sensus about who counts as a terrorist international prominence as the door,” she said. hadists from Idlib province and 42,000 and who does not is a further compli- war in Syria draws to a close and the Turkey has said repeatedly it would refuses to see Chechen fighters re- cation to the issue. Several hundred self-styled ISIS caliphate has been send its troops into PYD territory to turn home,” wrote Pierini, a former foreign fighters foreigners, among them many West- reduced to a small strip of land on push Kurdish forces back from the EU ambassador to Ankara, “but Tur- from more than 120 erners, have joined the Kurdish YPG Syria’s border with Iraq. US President border and to establish a “safe zone” key is anxious to avoid a Grozny-style to fight ISIS and could face Turkish Donald Trump called on European for the return of Syrian refugees to bloodbath in Idlib because it does countries headed to troops in a possible intervention by countries “to take back over 800 ISIS their country. Kirchner said one sce- not want a new wave of fleeing civil- Syria to join ISIS. NATO’s second biggest army. Viewpoint War goes on for European jihadists who now face battles in court

ighting in the Syrian are bound to come up against legal condition the individual con- for example, “when someone and Iraqi deserts may issues that may prevent them from cerned is eligible for citizenship in turns their back on the fundamen- be over for the foreign reintegrating into Europe. Aggra- another country. The British Home tal values and supports terror.” Claude Salhani fighters and support- vating the problem is the prevail- Office thought that Begum held Shadow Home Secretary Diane ers of the Islamic State ing political climate in Europe, Bangladeshi citizenship. It turns Abbott accused Javid of breaching (ISIS) but many face a where there has been a veer to the out she does not. the Universal Declaration of Hu- Fnew set of challenges — legal bat- far right in and as The Bangladeshi Ministry of For- man Rights, which states that “no tles — if they attempt to return to strong anti-immigration senti- eign Affairs said the government one shall be arbitrarily deprived of their former European homes. ments persist. was “deeply concerned” Begum their nationality.” Hundreds of European jihadists, Take the case of Shamima had been “erroneously identi- Begum changed her mind about reports from the field indicate, are Begum, a British woman who fied” as a Bangladeshi national. ISIS after the group imprisoned attempting to leave Syria as the fled London as a teen in 2015 and In a statement, it said Begum had and tortured her Dutch husband last bastion held by ISIS fighters is was caught up in the frenzy of never applied for dual nationality — an armed jihadist. Escape was expected to soon fall to anti-Islam- the Islamist movement, then in with and had never impossible, she claimed: “They’d ists and pro-government Syrian ascendance. Begum was found visited the country. It added that kill you if you tried.” forces. recuperating from her ordeal in the country had a “zero tolerance” Begum and thousands like her No one seems to know the exact a refugee camp on the Turkish- approach to terrorism and violent may or may not have been born numbers of European jihadis Syrian border. She has since given extremism. in the United Kingdom but were concerned but, regardless, there birth and was hoping to take her “I wasn’t born in Bangladesh, radicalised in the United Kingdom is bound to be a social issue that son to the United Kingdom. I’ve never seen Bangladesh and I and not in Bangladesh. Is it fair to Western countries will have to However, Britain stripped Be- don’t even speak Bengali prop- force them to “return” to a coun- face. gum of her UK citizenship, saying erly, so how can they claim I have try to which they have no con- Much has changed in the last she ought to go to Bangladesh, the Bangladeshi citizenship?” she nection, cannot identify with and year as renewed efforts by the homeland of her mother. Except said. where their animosity towards the Begum and Syrian government, supported by that she has never been to Bang- While he said he would not United Kingdom and the West will thousands like her Russian and Iranian forces and ladesh and does not have citizen- comment on individual cases, only percolate over the years into the limited US, French and British ship from that country and hardly Home Secretary Sajid Javid has outright hatred? may or may not have troops, have radically reduced the speaks the language. suggested Begum’s baby could be There must be common ground been born in the territory once under ISIS control to Bangladeshi law says citizenship considered British. He told parlia- to avoid a greater social conun- a small pocket of resistance where is passed down from the mother. ment: “Children should not suffer. drum. In the middle of Europe’s United Kingdom but the remaining fighters, mostly Eu- Regardless, the Ministry of Foreign So if a parent does lose their Brit- confused imperatives, common were radicalised in ropeans, are holding out. In many Affairs in Dhaka said Begum does ish citizenship, it does not affect ground might not be an easy ob- the United Kingdom cases, because they simply have not hold Bangladeshi citizenship the rights of their child.” jective to define or achieve. nowhere to go. and will not be allowed to enter. Javid said the power to deprive and not in As the European jihadists trickle British law states that one can a person of citizenship was only Claude Salhani is a regular Bangladesh. back to their home countries, they only be stripped of citizenship on used “in extreme circumstances,” columnist for The Arab Weekly. 14 February 24, 2019 News & Analysis Lebanon US maintains military aid to Lebanon despite Hezbollah’s gains

Simon Speakman Cordall the cabinet of an organisation that continues to maintain a militia that is not under the control of the gov- Tunis ernment.” She said Hezbollah continued espite US concerns about to make its own “national security Hezbollah taking control decisions,” referring to the group’s of Lebanon’s Health Minis- deployment in Syria, suggesting D try, indications point to the that Hezbollah’s support for the Da- United States and its Western allies mascus regime endangers the rest maintaining their traditional sup- of the country. port of the Lebanese government Prior to Richard’s criticism of Hez- while denouncing Hezbollah’s role bollah, the United States delivered in it. $16 million worth of weapons to American concern largely rested the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF). Long-term strategy. US soldiers unload military equipment destined for the Lebanese Army at Beirut on Hezbollah’s control of the Health Analysts suggested the transfer in- airport, February 13. (American Embassy in Lebanon) Ministry in the new Beirut gov- dicates Washington’s support for ernment, the only portfolio with the Lebanese state, irrespective of its own budget, which raises the Hezbollah’s participation in it. Bekaa Valley. non isn’t about to soon escape the manoeuvring in shaping US policy potential of funds being diverted “Ultimately, what does the US “Hezbollah’s control of the Washington attention. towards the Lebanese government to non-ministry ends or allowing want? Hezbollah won’t disappear Health Ministry will subject it to “The Trump administration will and its armed forces. Hezbollah to ease the effects of US overnight and the only available op- more public scrutiny,” Ali said. likely be looking for ways to con- “Many US policymakers, and sanctions against it. tions are a civil war or a long-term “It’s going to be very difficult for tinue ratcheting up pressure on certainly the US military, under- strategy to support Lebanese state [it] to divert funds away from its Hezbollah as part of its maximum stand that the LAF is an important institutions,” said Mohanad Hage intended purpose without it being pressure campaign against Iran,” partner in maintaining stability and Irrespective of Ali, a researcher at the Carnegie flagged. said Dalia Dassa Kaye, director of countering extremists,” Kaye said, Hezbollah’s domestic Middle East Centre. “The rationale “Politically, for Hezbollah, that the Centre for Middle East Public “particularly in the post-[Islamic entanglements, it seems of this strategy is to have a capable would be a disaster. Instead, given Policy at the RAND Corporation, State] era [during which] we can unlikely that Tehran’s Lebanese army, so that, when Iran the political and public pressure, “particularly as it focuses on Iran’s expect many fighters to return to principal ally in Lebanon halts its support or decreases it, the the party will focus its efforts to reach into the broader region. their home countries. The LAF isn’t about to soon escape Lebanese military could contain showcase their ‘exemplary’ model “And, of course, Hezbollah is a can’t be expected to fight Hezbol- the Washington attention. the militant organisation and estab- in governance. [It has] raised the top concern for Israel as it worries lah, because that’s a political bat- lish a monopoly over violence.” bar quite a bit and it will be a diffi- about Iranian long-term influence tle in Lebanon, but it can serve as Following a meeting with Leba- Hezbollah is highly interested cult challenge,” Ali said. in the country as the civil war winds an important counter to Hezbollah nese Prime Minister Saad Hariri, a in a public relations victory at the Running the Health Ministry down. So that puts Hezbollah high and an example of a non-sectarian staunch opponent of Hezbollah, US Health Ministry through a plan to might prove to be more difficult on the American list of concerns player supported by all groups in Ambassador to Lebanon Elizabeth widen public health services. The than the Syrian conflict. Irrespec- over Iran.” the country.” Richard said: “I was also very frank party is increasing its government tive of Hezbollah’s domestic en- Regional considerations will with the prime minister about US role to appease its dissatisfied tanglements, it seems unlikely that likely override concerns in Wash- Simon Speakman Cordall is a concern over the growing role in support base in the impoverished Tehran’s principal ally in Leba- ington about Hezbollah’s domestic freelance writer. Viewpoint Lebanon’s Druze community is split: Where does it go from here?

ebanon’s Druze com- In doing so, Arslan has facili- blatt and support for the Syrian take the position. The nominee, munity is facing un- tated Damascus’s efforts to punish regime, causing tensions to further Saleh al-Gharib, however, im- precedented challenges the PSP for its support of the Syr- flare in the Druze community. mediately aligned himself with Rami Rayess that threaten to fracture ian revolution. This came to a head when Arslan, though he was supposed the minority group. The conflict has led to violence approximately 300 Al-Tawhid sup- to remain nonaligned. Much of the tension in two mountain villages, lead- porters rallied around Jumblatt’s To make matters worse, Gharib Lrevolves around competing politi- ing to the death of a young PSP 400-year-old headquarters, the was assigned the refugee portfo- cal visions of Druze leaders Walid supporter and a Druze bodyguard Moukhtara castle. Jumblatt was lio, a position Jumblatt feared he Jumblatt, who heads the Progres- belonging to Al-Tawhid, a small not in the castle at the time but could use to unsafely push Syrian sive Socialist Party (PSP), and Talal party also supportive of the Syr- the demonstration was a source refugees back into their country. Arslan, who leads the Lebanese ian regime and antagonistic to of tension in several mountain Jumblatt’s position in favour of Democratic Party. Jumblatt. villages. It cooled after Jumblatt’s Syrian refugees’ rights won him During the last three parliamen- The PSP supporter died during requests for withdrawal and self- praise from many Syrian oppo- tary elections, Jumblatt, the more the elections period when he was restraint. sitionists in exile, which started powerful of the two figures, has al- shot by an Arslan affiliate who fled This is evidence of Jumblatt’s an online petition, signed by lowed his political rival to control to Syria. The Druze bodyguard was powerful political presence. His hundreds of prominent figures, to one of three parliamentary seats mistakenly shot when security party retains most — seven of the thank him. allocated to the Druze community. forces headed to Wiam Wahhab in eight — of the Druze seats in par- However, wrangling over Syria Arslan has hardly been apprecia- Chouf to call him for a judiciary liament, with the eighth intention- harmed inter-Druze relations, tive of the gesture, joining forces session. ally vacant. causing negative repercussions with the Damascus regime, which Wahhab and Arslan, long-time Still, he compromised on the throughout the country. Jumblatt staunchly opposes, to rivals, have come together because third Druze-allocated cabinet seat, PSP, the dominant political besiege Jumblatt and the PSP. of their shared antipathy of Jum- allowing for a neutral figure to party in much of Lebanon’s moun- tainous regions, has attempted to retain good ties with the different parties, even outside the Druze sphere. This is reflected in Jum- blatt’s reconciliation in 2001 with the Maronite patriarch, which has helped foster an effective relation- ship. Druze clerics in recent weeks have actively worked to reduce tensions and reconcile Jumblatt and Arslan but there remains a long road to improving ties. Syria is far from reaching a Main player. lasting political solution, despite A file picture reports from the so-called Axis of shows Resistance that its battles are near- Druze clerics in Lebanon’s ly won, but its engagement in the Druze Lebanese political scene seems to recent weeks have leader Walid be ramping up. actively worked to Jumblatt (C) Whether the conflicts plaguing reduce tensions and addressing Lebanon’s Druze community can supporters be resolved, meanwhile, remains reconcile Jumblatt at the House unclear. and Arslan but there of the Druze Community Rami Rayess is a Lebanese remains a long road in Beirut. writer. Follow him on Twitter: to improving ties. (Reuters) @RamiRayess. February 24, 2019 15 News & Analysis Palestine Israel New alliances in Israel throw electoral race wide open

Manuel Langendorf left Israel to improve your English and practise it at luxurious cocktail parties,” Gantz said. London Netanyahu called Blue and White a “weak, new left-wing whirlwind of political ma- party” that includes IDF generals noeuvring at home forced “of the left pretending to be of the Israeli Prime Minister right.” A Binyamin Netanyahu to “For the first time in a decade, postpone a meeting with Russian Netanyahu has a real challenge to President Vladimir Putin. his rule,” said Zilber. No official reason was given but Netanyahu has been forging sources in Netanyahu’s Likud party political alliances to ensure that, told Israeli newspaper Haaretz the even if Likud won fewer seats than trip was postponed due to efforts the Blue and White party, he could by political rivals to form an alli- form a governing coalition. ance before parties hit a deadline Israeli media reported that Net- to declare their list of candidates anyahu pushed various right-wing for Israel’s April 9 elections. groups to form an electoral alli- Netanyahu’s two main challeng- ance. The Jewish Home-National ers, former military chief Benny Union party will run with Otzma Gantz and Yair Lapid, the head of Yehudit (Jewish Power). The latter the centrist Yesh Atis party, joined is led by followers of the late Rabbi forces as the Blue and White party. Meir Kahane, founder of the ultra- They agreed to take turns as prime nationalist Kach party, which was minister if elected. banned in the 1980s for racism. “It’s a huge development in do- Kahane Chai, which emerged after mestic politics. Individually, nei- Kahane’s assassination, is listed as ther one of them could have posed a terrorist organisation by Israel, a serious challenge to Likud and the European Union and the Unit- Netanyahu,” said Neri Zilber, ad- ed States. junct fellow at the Washington In- Without an alliance, either party Last-minute coalition. Retired Israeli military chief Benny Gantz (L) smiles with Yair Lapid, stitute for Near East Policy. could miss the electoral threshold head of the Yesh Atid party, as they launch a joint list for the upcoming Israeli elections in Tel Aviv, Netanyahu’s main challenger is of 3.25% and not be able to support February 21. (AP) Gantz, a political newcomer who the prime minister. served as the head of the Israel De- A poll by Channel 13 said Blue Sephardic cost-of-living focused who, news website Ynet reported, tribal-like: Israelis are most likely fence Forces (IDF) from 2011-15 and and White would gain 36 out the Kulanu party — have all announced on deadline day unsuccessfully to vote for parties they identify is the leader of the Blue and White 120 seats in parliament, ten more their intention to recommend Net- tried to forge an alliance with Ku- with sociologically (Haredi, reli- party. When he launched the Israel than Likud, but would fall short of anyahu,” said Ofer Zalzberg, a sen- lanu, led by former Likud member gious Zionist, secular Zionist and Resilience Party in January, Gantz being able to form a coalition while ior analyst for Israel-Palestine at Moshe Kahlon. Arab).” accused Netanyahu of presiding Likud and its traditional allies Crisis Group. Zilber cautioned, however, that This means that even as Gantz over a “regime” that “encourages could cobble together a slim ma- the right-of-centre bloc might not and Netanyahu fight over the ti- jority of 61 seats. Another survey incitement and hatred.” Netanyahu has been be as monolithic as polls indicate. tle of “Mr Security,” “sectorial af- In addition to his last-minute released February 21 predicted an Kulanu and even former Defence filiation” is stronger than the coalition with Lapid, a former fi- even closer race in which the Ne- forging political Minister Avigdor Lieberman’s Yis- candidates’ actual security perfor- nance minister, Gantz forged an tanyahu bloc would win 60 seats, alliances to ensure rael Beiteinu, Zilber said, could join mance. alliance with former Defence Min- the Times of Israel reported. that, even if Likud won a Gantz-led government, although Hovering over the political ister Moshe Ya’alon who heads the As in past elections, however, fewer seats than the Lieberman was unlikely to become manoeuvring is the question of Telem party. The bloc is joined by the ability to forge alliances before Blue and White party, part of a coalition including left- whether Israel’s attorney gen- Gabi Ashkenazi, a popular former and after Election Day will deter- he could form a wing parties such as Meretz. eral will press corruption charges head of the IDF. mine who will be the next prime governing coalition. Considering the different possi- against Netanyahu. The prime Gantz, in a campaign speech minister. This could prove an ad- ble governing coalitions after the minister has vowed to stay in office February 19, fired off personal -at vantage for Netanyahu. The ultra-orthodox UTJ an- elections, it will be a “maths and even if he is indicted but could face tacks against Netanyahu, calling “The king-makers of Israeli nounced it would not become part political question” to see who will pressure to step down in such a him the “ruler of Israel.” politics — the Haredi Shas and of a Gantz-Lapid government and be able to form a government, Zil- scenario. “When I lay in muddy foxholes United Torah Judaism (UTJ) par- would “fight in any way to contin- ber said. with my soldiers on frozen winter ties; the mostly Russian-speaking ue Netanyahu’s rule.” Shas voiced “If past is precedent,” Zalzberg Manuel Langendorf is a writer nights, you, Binyamin Netanyahu, Yisrael Beiteinu; and the mostly support for the prime minister, said, “Israeli voting patterns are focusing on the MENA region. UNRWA chief vows to fulfil mandate despite US funding cut Samar Kadi Determined. just and lasting solution for the Ar- UNRWA ab-Israeli conflict has been found. Commissioner- “Nobody expected that we still Beirut General Pierre be here 70 years on or claims that Krahenbuhl we should be here for much longer. year ago, the US admin- speaks at the We are not a self-created organi- istration cut funding to UN European sation but we were tasked by the the UN refugee agency, headquarters most diverse and politically rep- A UNRWA, depriving an or- in Geneva. (AP) resentative body of the planet, the ganisation that sees to the needs UN General Assembly,” he said. of approximately 5.4 million Pal- “While we were not mandated estinian refugees of a $300 million politically, we see every single day contribution and jeopardising its in the entire region the humanitar- existence. ian consequences of unresolved “2018 has been the most chal- political problems. The fact that lenging year in the history of the there is no resolution to the funda- agency,” said UNRWA Commis- mental conflict of Israel-Palestine sioner-General Pierre Krahenbuhl. is creating this prolonged refugee “We started the year with a deficit experience for millions of people,” of $446 million but succeeded to Krahenbuhl added. overcome the financial shortfalls The Palestinian refugee question by mobilising the international and refugees’ claim to the right of community through a global cam- return to their original homes in paign ‘Dignity is Priceless.’” what is now Israel are among the The gap left by Washington’s cut most difficult challenges to a peace was compensated by additional agreement. While many Palestin- funding from other donors, espe- ians would choose to return, thus cially Arab Gulf countries and the funding agreements with UNRWA tance,” Krahenbuhl said. amount of money the agency re- making Jews a minority in Israel, it European Union. but most donors give annual con- “It says very clearly that this ceived from donors in 2018. is unlikely that Israelis would rec- “We hope these funding lev- tributions that are not necessarily decision had nothing to do with “We did not close a single school ognise a Palestinian right of return els be preserved in 2019 for us to the same every year. UNRWA’s performance. It was ex- or a single health centre last year,” before a final settlement is agreed. continue with all of our important The abrupt US decision to stop clusively political,” he added. Krahenbuhl said. “We will continue In the meantime, Krahenbuhl work in education, health care, funding UNRWA was “specifically The US administration cited to invest all our energy in seeking said that “UNRWA is extremely de- social services and emergency re- and exclusively a political deci- UNRWA’s “irredeemably flawed to preserve all our services and the termined to live up to its mandate.” sponse for over 5.4 million refu- sion,” Krahenbuhl said, dismissing operation” as one reason for cut- quality of these services in 2019, He promised to mobilise the inter- gees throughout the region,” Kra- allegations of mismanagement of ting funding to the agency estab- especially for the over 534,000 stu- national community once again in henbuhl said. the agency’s funds. lished 70 years ago to assist Pales- dents in UNRWA schools.” support of the agency and its work “Although we were success- “Only two months earlier, tinians who fled their homes when Fourteen countries, including with Palestine refugees. ful last year, this is by no means a UNRWA had reached a new coop- Israel was established. India, Turkey, China and Gulf na- “We did mobilise it last year and guarantee that every single donor eration agreement with Washing- The agency runs schools and tions, increased their funding of will do that again,” he said. “That will give the same amount this ton. Then the announcement on clinics and provides socio-eco- the agency last year. The European was a way for the world to say that year. In 2019, we start again from (moving the US Embassy) to Jeru- nomic assistance to Palestinian Union also increased its donation Palestinian refugees matter, their zero; UNRWA’s financial situation salem was made, creating tensions refugees in Lebanon, Jordan, Syria, and is, after the US withdrawal, the situation is not forgotten and that remains fragile. That is the only between the US and the Palestin- the West Bank, Gaza and East Jeru- agency’s largest single donor. they are not overlooked and will honest way of describing the situ- ian leadership, followed by the US salem. Krahenbuhl stressed that the not be ignored.” ation,” he added during a visit to move to cut all the funding to the In January, UNRWA appealed for agency’s mandate is clear about Lebanon. Palestinians and for the first time $1.2 billion to fund its services this providing assistance and protec- Samar Kadi is The Arab Weekly Some countries have 4-year they included humanitarian assis- year, aiming to maintain the same tion to Palestine refugees until a Travel and Society section editor. 16 February 24, 2019 Debate Turkey

For Turkey, it’s a choice between Ikhwanism and Ba’athist-Islamist blend

Between a rock and a hard place. A Yavuz Baydar Turkish man rides a bicycle past a poster of Turkish President egardless of the out- Recep Tayyip come of Turkey’s local Erdogan in elections March 31, a Istanbul. (AFP) crucial question will persist. Will the new regime, Rwith its super-presidential sys- tem, consolidate itself as the last representative of Ikhwanism, a term derived from the Arabic word for the Muslim Brotherhood, or will it metamorphose into a Turkish blend of Ba’athism and Islamism? It’s clear that sections loyal to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan within the security appa- ratus, as well as political appointees to official posts, identify with the Muslim Brotherhood. Discourse in the pro-government media con- firms this. These circles believe in an Ikhwanist strategy for the long term despite setbacks in Turkey’s south- ern neighbourhood. A mukhabarat mechanism has become dominant local elections less important than Let’s go back to the real ques- reformists and Kurds at home, Er- in the administration. Central- might have been thought. The elec- tion: Where are we with respect to dogan will be unable to return even ised in the presidential palace in tions bring down the curtain on one Erdogan’s magnificent ambition of to a minimal democratic order. Ankara, the mukhabarat’s existence act of an open-ended power play. supremacy over the Sunni world? Such a course-reversal would make is synced with Erdogan’s political Turkey is more complex than Hidden ambitions are built on the him accountable and dispensable. survival. Libya, Syria or Egypt. It has defied annihilation of democratic order Should he choose to go it alone, it However, it’s not as simple as disruption. The 2016 incident was and rule of law. They are built on will be an extremely high-stakes that. Since 2014, Erdogan has not so much an attempted coup impunity and lack of accountability. game. He will constantly need relentlessly engineered the political than a failed military uprising but The system has been restructured domestic allies. mechanisms by replacing Gulenists Turkey seems far from plunging by means of unlawful acts, which There is, of course, the option and pro-Western bureaucrats in key into civil war, as did Libya and caused rage at home and deep of metamorphosis. Keeping China institutions with members of Islam- Syria. mistrust abroad. A system that close and Russia even closer, Erdog- ist sects, such as Menzil, as well That said, Turkey faces a crisis in works towards the unity of powers an will feel the need to share power as ultranationalist or pro-Russia terms of tensions between Islamists minimises the role of the ballot box. with his militarist, anti-Western elements. and secular militarists. Something Democracy is dead in Turkey and foes at home by means of another Erdogan can’t be said to have will surely happen to resolve it and so is rule of law. Erdogan’s magnifi- grand bargain, if necessary. taken full control of the judiciary or one camp will triumph. If so, it will cent ambition is about to terminate This points to a merger of even of the military, even though be the final battle over who controls Turkey’s strategic partnership with Ba’athism (a rough form of Kemal- the purge after the botched 2016 the presidential system. the United States. The European ism) and Islamism. It would be a coup continues in a patchy fashion No matter who grabs power, the Union is on the point of suspend- tense coalition, doomed to implo- almost daily. super-presidency will be useful to ing the accession process for sion and dependent on the magni- The context makes the upcoming rule the country with an iron fist. membership of the bloc. Erdogan’s tude of the systemic and economic Gokhan Bacik, a political scientist hands are tied because the Russian crisis that faces Turkey. and expert on Turkish politics, said leadership has less confidence in Erdogan has time to calculate the the regime enshrines “competitive his Ikhwanist sympathies than he risks but his journey so far tells us Having burned bridges with authoritarianism.” “(It) tends to a thinks. he will never loosen his grip on the reformists and Kurds at home, stalemate,” he said. “The regime The Syrian regime’s rise from tools that keep him in power. Erdogan will be unable to return is unable to move to full authori- the ashes and the United States’ tarianism, while the opposition is hostility to Iran will not be helpful Yavuz Baydar is a Turkish even to a minimal democratic unable to bring about a return to in achieving Erdogan’s dream. journalist and regular columnist order. full democracy.” Having burned bridges with for The Arab Weekly. Erdogan’s latest answer to Turkey’s woes – dig another hole

economic policies. charismatic political adversary, as mobile phones jumped after the So, promising to build a huge hole on charges of supporting terror- lira plummeted 28% against the US at great expense may not be well ism. Police and prosecutors, often dollar last year. Almost one-quarter Mark Bentley advised. hand-picked by the AKP, have ar- of young people are unemployed. An index of life satisfaction rested tens of thousands of people, The government has imple- published by the Turkish Statisti- including journalists, teachers and mented a series of costly short-term cal Institute (TUIK) reported that human rights defenders, accused of measures in response, slashing Turks say they are less happy than complicity in the coup. taxes and using banks to restruc- urkish President Recep they have been since at least 2009, It was no surprise that TUIK’s ture loans. Tayyip Erdogan may when the survey began. Meanwhile, life satisfaction survey results said Let us hope Erdogan’s promise have finally lost his Erdogan, while still Turkey’s most members of the state security ser- to build the Ankara waterway is an touch with voters. popular leader by far, has seen his vices were the most satisfied people empty one — a canal he pledged for Amid Turkey’s worst job approval rating slide, a recent in Turkey. The next happiest were Istanbul ahead of general elections economic downturn in survey by Ankara-based pollster transport industry staff members in 2011 is still to be built. No one Talmost two decades, Erdogan stood Metropoll indicated. — Erdogan has invested tens of with enough money has stepped up before a large crowd in Ankara and Local elections are a huge deal in billions of dollars in Turkey’s infra- to fund it. promised to build a canal through Turkey and Erdogan knows it. He is structure with the help of his busi- Such is the state of the Turkish the city covering 3.2 million sq. campaigning on behalf of his ruling ness elite, including an unfinished economy that firms tasked with metres of land. He didn’t say which Justice and Development Party mega-airport in Istanbul, with loans following up on Erdogan’s pledge river it would flow from. (AKP) every day, throwing flowers guaranteed by Albayrak’s Treasury. would not be able to find the cash With nationwide local elections from buses, shaking hands with The survey stated that Turks either. The country’s private banks coming March 31, Erdogan could shopkeepers and kissing babies. who did not finish school have a are also short on spare funds. Un- be losing his once-unerring talent The March polls carry extra relatively higher level of happiness. less, that is, Erdogan uses state-run for gauging the mood of Turkey significance because they represent Perhaps, then, Erdogan spoke to banks., which he controls under the after winning vast new presidential the first ballot box test of Erdogan’s those people when he took to the wealth fund, for the financing. powers last year and moving to a popularity since June, when he stage February 20 to announce the That opens another can of $600 million palace on a hill near enhanced his powers to become the canal project. worms. Turkey can ill afford more the capital. most powerful leader in Turkey’s Others may find the canal, an misguided infrastructure projects. Turks are suffering from a sharp democratic history. idea first raised by a mayor almost a Government finances are only in decline in living standards after Er- The president has also made him- decade ago, hard to stomach, given the black thanks to a one-off profit dogan picked a fight last year with self head of the country’s sovereign the likely expense. windfall from the Central Bank US President Donald Trump over wealth fund, taken away oversight Turkish food prices surged more of Turkey. Investor confidence in an imprisoned US pastor, sparking of the biggest state companies from than 30%, on an annual basis, in the the country is still on very shaky a currency crisis that was already parliament and put Berat Albayrak, last month, a travesty that Erdogan ground. looming because of his populist a young businessman married to and his son-in-law blamed on “food As ratings agency Standard & his daughter Esra, in charge of the terrorism” rather than the currency Poor’s said, Turkey’s currency crisis economy. crisis or government policy. Overall may not be over. It’s perhaps time Turkey’s currency crisis may Erdogan used a failed military inflation is at 20.4% and more and that Erdogan’s self-labelled “crazy not be over. It’s perhaps time coup in July 2016 — it’s strongly more consumers and businesses projects” were. rumoured he had prior knowl- are going into default since interest that Erdogan’s self-labelled edge of the intervention — to lock rates surged. Mark Bentley is the former bureau “crazy projects” were. up Selahattin Demirtas, his most The price of imported goods such chief of Bloomberg News in Turkey. February 24, 2019 17 Debate Iran Trump’s Iran strategy through Iraq causing a stir

Trump has consistently taken a hawkish position on Iran. In his Gregory 2018 speech before the UN General Aftandilian Assembly, he said he was imposing severe sanctions on Iran backed by the tacit threat of force. Implicit in his message was that US policy is aimed at undermining the regime S President Donald in Tehran. Trump’s decision The problem for Trump is that by to keep US troops bringing Iraq into the Iran equation in Iraq is not only he has helped to undermine the US aimed at having a position in Iraq. residual force there to Iraqi politicians reacted angrily to Utrain the Iraqi Army and strike any Trump’s comments not only about resurgent Islamic State (ISIS) ele- “watching Iran” from Iraq but keep- ments that may emerge but also to ing control of the Al Asad Airbase in “watch Iran,” as he said in a recent western Iraq where many US troops interview. are stationed. In other words, he sees the US Iraq’s Shia-dominated govern- military presence in Iraq to keep ment, which wants to maintain eyes on Iran as part of his strategy friendly relations with Iran for to keep Tehran boxed in. However, political and economic reasons, has regime change in Tehran may be tried to strike a balance between what he and his advisers are really Washington and Tehran and is very after. sensitive to the notion that it is in Trump’s national security any way assisting the United States Callous statements. US President Donald Trump speaks to military leadership adviser, John Bolton, has said in an anti-Iran campaign. members during a visit to al-Asad Air Base in Anbar, last December. (DPA) Trump’s tough sanctions on Iran Even the normally US friendly are meant to squeeze Iran “until Iraqi President Barham Salih, who the pips squeak.” US Secretary of is of Kurdish background, stated: [Iraq’s] sovereignty.” in Iraq. State Mike Pompeo, as a congress- “Don’t overburden Iraq with your Trump’s comments about the Trump would do well to read a lit- man before working in the Trump own issues… Do not pursue your military base sounded like those tle history. The ill-fated Portsmouth administration, is on record stating own policy priorities [against Iran of an early 20th-century imperial- Treaty of 1948 is worth studying. that Iran is “intent on destroying in Iraq]. We live here.” ist. He said the United States had British and pro-British Iraqi officials America.” Last May, after Trump Former Iraqi Prime Minister “spent a fortune” building this negotiated a defence treaty that announced his withdrawal from the Haider al-Abadi, who is also base, which he visited in December, allowed for a long-term British Iran nuclear deal, Pompeo listed 12 someone with generally friendly and “we might as well keep it.” military presence in Iraq but when demands on Iran that he undoubt- relations with Washington, said: Although Trump thinks in the treaty was announced there was edly knew Tehran was not going to “Talking about military bases in transactional terms that is not such widespread opposition to it in accept. Iraq for the purpose of confronta- how the rest of the world thinks. Iraq that it was never ratified. Ten Although the Trump administra- tion complicates the relationship He is ignorant of modern Middle years later, Iraq experienced a vio- tion has insisted publicly that it is with neighbouring countries” as Eastern history, in which the issue lent, anti-Western military coup. not pursuing regime change in Iran, well as questioning the sovereignty of foreign military bases was a hot- The lesson is that Trump needs few believe it. Early in the admin- of Iraq. button political issue for national- to tread delicately with Iraq and istration, a memo circulated in the Both Salih and Abadi were react- ists throughout the region. be much more careful about what White House, a report in Politico ing to strong condemnations of the Unfortunately, this is not the he says. Many Iraqis quietly want said, discussed ways of fomenting United States by Iraqi politicians first gaffe Trump has made that has the United States to stay in Iraq to popular unrest in Iran with the aim in parliament, some of whom have justifiably riled Iraqis. The day after train the Iraqi military, be a hedge of establishing a “free and demo- called for US troops to leave im- his inauguration in January 2017, against a possible resurgence of ISIS cratic” country. The memo report- mediately. he delivered a public speech at and a balancer to Iran’s influence edly said the “very structure of the Seeing how Trump’s statement CIA headquarters during which he in the country. However, any more regime invites instability, crisis and touched off a political firestorm, lamented the fact that the United gaffes would undermine those US possible collapse.” acting US Defence Secretary Patrick States after 2003 did not take Iraqi supporters. Shanahan travelled to Baghdad oil but said “maybe you’ll have on February 12 and tried to cool another chance” to do so. And Gregory Aftandilian is a lecturer in Although Trump thinks in the controversy by stating: “We Trump’s failure to meet with Iraqi the Pardee School of Global Studies understand that that we’re [in Iraq] officials in Baghdad before his visit at Boston University and a former transactional terms that is not by invitation, that we jointly share to the troops at Al Asad in Decem- US State Department Middle East how the rest of the world thinks. resources… we clearly recognise ber was also received very poorly analyst. Unrest in Iran’s periphery prompts concern in Tehran

and as far south as Yemen. Just as Iran organised Shia mi- litias to fight its proxy wars in the Ali Alfoneh region, some of those neighbours may have recruited angry men from Iran’s Sunni community to push the fight into Iranian terri- tory. By this logic, if Tehran is busy s the regime in Tehran fighting terrorism at home, it will celebrated the 40th have less chance to push its influ- anniversary of the ence abroad. revolution and estab- Tehran is clearly concerned lishment of the Islamic about the terrorist attacks and the Republic, there was factors that motivate them. That anotherA terrorist attack on Iran’s said, the central government’s periphery. actions to combat separatism and A suicide bomber targeted an terrorism are not impressive. Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps After each terrorist attack, the (IRGC) bus on the Khash-Zahedan IRGC promises revenge. Then, road in south-eastern Iran, report- leading IRGC commanders issue edly killing 27 and wounding 13 statements warning Pakistan, others. The Salafi jihadist Jaish ul- Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Adl [the Army of Justice] terrorist Increasingly vulnerable. Iranian mourners gather around the Emirates, the United States and group, which demands a sovereign coffins of members of Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps who Israel of retaliation. However, state in Iran’s Sistan-Baluchestan were killed February 13 in a suicide attack, during their funeral fearing direct confrontation with (AFP) province, claimed responsibility for in Isfahan, February 16. those countries, the IRGC, usually the attack. retaliates against Iranian citizens in Was this terrorist attack atypical estan in the south-west and Sistan- police headquarters in Chabahar, peripheral regions. or does it follow a pattern evident Baluchestan in the south-east. Most also in Sistan-Baluchestan prov- Reports of the arrest of terror- in earlier attacks? What motivated are perpetrated by members of ince, killed two police officers and ists in possession of hundreds the Zahedan attack and how does Iran’s ethnic minorities, such as the wounded dozens of others. The of kilograms of explosives, arms Tehran intend to prevent future Kurds, Arabs and Baluchis, most of February 13 bus attack exclusively and the like are not uncommon. incidents? whom belong to Iran’s Sunni mi- targeted the IRGC border patrol. Neither are reports of a securitised Indeed, there appears to be a pat- nority. The attacks primarily target If one accepts the explanation and militarised atmosphere in the tern in terrorist attacks in Iran in re- the IRGC, its affiliated Basij militia offered by terrorist groups for the periphery. cent years. Most take place on Iran’s and, in some instances, members of attacks, they are demanding inde- The solution, however, may lie periphery, in particular Kurdistan Iran’s Law Enforcement Force. pendence from Iran. The demand elsewhere: a negotiated solution to province in the north-west, Khuz- There also appears to be a change may be real but it could just as well the regional rivalry between Iran in the terrorist groups’ mode of serve as cover for a more merce- and Saudi Arabia and the signifi- operation. There were many civil- nary enterprise. Tehran, after all, cant improvement of living condi- The central government’s ian casualties in the September 22, provoked considerable concern tions in Iran’s peripheral regions. actions to combat separatism 2018, attack on a military parade in among its neighbours when it Ahvaz. However, more recent inci- expanded its sphere of influence Ali Alfoneh is a senior fellow at and terrorism are not dents had fewer civilian casualties: from to the east to the Arab Gulf States Institute in impressive. On December 6, a car bomb near Iraq, Syria and Lebanon to the west Washington. 18 February 24, 2019 Spotlight Arab-European Summit

Viewpoint Modest expectations in Sharm el-Sheikh

ot many tangible Lopsided. breakthroughs are Arab League Oussama expected during the Secretary- Romdhani first Arab-European General summit in Sharm Ahmed Abul el-Sheikh, Egypt. It is Gheit and EU None of those summits where stake- foreign policy holders are just happy to see the chief Federica event take place. The group photo Mogherini becomes an end in itself. attend a joint As far as substance is concerned, meeting of the February 24-25 summit does European not seem to be destined to much Union and beyond perhaps shedding light on League of obstacles in the path of meaningful Arab States dialogue between the two shores of foreign the Mediterranean. ministers Relations between the two sides in Brussels, have never been so lopsided. February 4. One side is fairly prosperous and (AP) steeped in the global politics of power. The other is disunited, economically faltering and mired in war and strife. This imbalance can only distort the terms of the dialogue but Eu- rope’s ascendance in this dialogue is not a given. Arabs are very likely shall Plan-type illusions. Europe two fractured blocs. If intra-Arab always had its own priorities and to be heard if they adopt a common preferred to lend itself to accusa- divisiveness is proverbial, that of constraints. stand. That was the case last year tions of inconsistency and double Europe is a sharp new trend. The main enduring constraint when North African capitals pushed standards than to live beyond its During a ministerial meeting in has been economics. back against the European sugges- means. Brussels in early February, there Negotiations of economic charac- tion of establishing “disembarka- In today’s not-so-brave new was no agreement on the agenda ter with the European Union have tion platforms” for illegal migrants world, Europe’s outlook on the of the forthcoming summit. Arab always been a heartless business in North Africa. region is mostly tainted by fear. League Secretary-General Ahmed in which Europe’s interests come Even if geopolitical and economic Wariness about terrorism and illegal Aboul Gheit explained there were first. Much so today, as the Euro- realities predestine Arabs to be migration have become too often “more complications on the Eu- pean Union faces its own economic vulnerable to pressure, a lot has the determining factors. ropean side than the Arab side.” woes and the self-inflicted wound changed in the last few years. Gone Some in the Arab world may The EU representative for foreign of Brexit. are the days when the European have been surprised when Europe affairs and security policy, Federica If the European side is more Union could seek concessions moved to blacklist Arab countries Mogherini, shot back: “I would say divided than ever, its divisions take simply by twisting the arms of Arab among nations representing a the contrary.” There was clearly a second seat to Europe’s perception regimes in closed-door sessions. threat of money laundering and bit of both. of the economic priorities and fun- Public opinion is a serious factor terror financing. The European At Sharm el-Sheikh, Europe is damental interests of its bloc. now in the Arab world, even where Commission stated that “the aim expected to try to focus on the The Maghreb and the rest of the democratic institutions have not is to protect the integrity of the EU migration issue even if other items, Arab world have only themselves been established. financial system.” such as trade and investment and to blame as they remain among Events have also altered Europe’s It did not matter if the risks the many conflicts of the region, the least integrated regions of the view of the opposite shore. Since were imagined or real or if the will be nominally on the agenda. planet. 2011, trepidations have dominated methodology used was far from It is hard, however, to see Europe The encounter between the 50 Europe’s perspective on North foolproof. The move showed how paying more than lip service to or so countries that will be taking Africa and the Middle East. The the perception of Europe’s vital Middle East peacemaking because their seats in Sharm el-Sheikh will Arab world’s violent tremors and interests could outweigh concern it seems to accept that outcomes show that any worldview carries as waves of migration have become for serious reputational damage to of war and peace in the region are much credence as the ability of its a major source of concern for Arab countries. more determined these days by holder to defend that outlook. Europe. Consequently, the pre- Europe itself is a changed conti- US and Russian moves and by the The ideal of co-development “Arab spring” clamour for human nent, however, with the bonds of its manoeuvres of regional powers. between both shores of the rights and democracy, although not union fraying. The migration crisis, Many of the dreams of concerted Mediterranean is now perceived by totally muted, has seen its volume unleashed by war in Syria, Iraq and Mediterranean policies and Euro- Arab and European diplomats as a toned down. Libya, created new political and Arab dialogue were unrealistic from utopian chimera. It probably was In the case of Tunisia, where the electoral priorities for European day one. For decades, policymakers always so. More than ever, relative success of the democratic leaders. Mounting populism led to in the Maghreb and the rest of the More than ever, there is need for there is need for a transition was supposed to clear the the fissuring of the European Un- Arab world have advocated for the a reset in Euro-Arab relations. way for meaningful EU assistance, ion’s previous harmonious facade. ideal of co-development between reset in Euro-Arab the European Union’s modest The Euro-Arab dialogue is hence the two shores of the Mediter- Oussama Romdhani is relations. support has dispelled any Mar- shaping up like a dialogue between ranean. In reality, each shore has Editor-in-Chief of The Arab Weekly. Migration to be main topic of first EU-Arab summit

Amr Emam the European Union’s rotating While the main topic at the meet- in Syria, Iraq and Libya but this is day’s schedule showed two ses- presidency. ing, immigration, is a contentious bringing economic, security and sions, including one to be attend- European and Arab foreign min- issue with Arab countries, which social risks to Europe. ed by leaders on both sides, and a Cairo isters met February 4 in Brussels ruled out an EU proposal to host EU High Representative for For- news conference. to prepare for the summit and “disembarkation platforms” for eign Affairs and Security Policy Egypt is a good model for a coun- s Sharm el-Sheikh pre- discuss challenges facing Europe refugees and migrants seeking to Federica Mogherini said that what- try that has stopped being a source pares for the first Euro- and the Arab world. Among other enter Europe from their territory. ever happens in the Arab world af- of concern for European countries. pean Union-Arab League important issues, those meeting in Figures from last year indicate fects Europeans. Egypt used to be a transit country A summit, expectations Brussels discussed migration, ter- that up to 90% of people cross- “And whatever happens in Eu- for a huge number of illegal immi- were that discussions would focus rorism and climate change. ing the Mediterranean to Europe rope affects the Arab world,” grants, originating in it and in Af- on counterterrorism, trade and Diplomats and foreign policy of- depart from Libya. Individual Eu- Mogherini added at the February 4 rican countries suffering conflicts, investment and, most important, ficials on both sides expressed a ropean countries have sought to foreign ministers meeting in Brus- famine and poverty. immigration. commitment to deepen coopera- strike deals with African and Arab sels. “We have the responsibility However, not a single case of il- This is the first meeting to bring tion and build peace and stability, countries over the issue but there of joining forces to find common legal immigration had been reg- together EU and Arab League offi- guarantee security, foster econom- has been no broader institutional solutions to common challenges.” istered in the country since Sep- cials and will seek to chart strate- ic, social and technological devel- action on it. Egyptian President Abdel Fat- tember 2016, Egyptian presidency gies to address common challenges opment. The International Organisation tah al-Sisi said the Sharm el-Sheikh spokesman Bassam Radi said. facing the Arab region and Europe for Migration (IOM) said fewer summit would be a step on the Behind stemming illegal immi- amid calls for strengthening coop- than 10,000 migrants and refu- road to developing stronger rela- gration was intensive action by eration between the two regions. Egyptian President Abdel gees reached Europe in the first six tions between Europe and the Arab Egyptian authorities on the Medi- “Unrest and rampant conflicts Fattah al-Sisi will be weeks of 2019, the vast majority by world. terranean coast and huge invest- in some Arab countries are turn- co-chairman of the sea. “Stability and security in the ments that created greater oppor- ing the Mediterranean into an il- meeting with European IOM figures indicate that the Arab region have their impacts on tunities for young Egyptians. legal immigration route from one Council President Donald number of arrivals in Europe Europe and vice versa,” he said “European investments will of trade and shared economic ben- Tusk and European have decreased, with an esti- February 16 at the Munich Security help these states move ahead with efit,” said former Egyptian diplo- Commission President mated 186,768 arriving in 2017 Conference. their economic development plans mat Mohamed al-Shazly. “This is and 144,166 in 2018. Despite this, Sisi will be co-chairman of the and create opportunities for their why Arab-European cooperation is Jean-Claude Juncker. the European Union is looking for meeting with Tusk and Europe- youth,” said Akram Badr Eddine, a necessary to end this phenomenon more cohesive action, particularly an Commission President Jean- political science professor at Cairo and solve other problems facing However, European leaders re- given the number of people who Claude Juncker. Arab and Euro- University. “This development will the two regions.” portedly balked at meeting with die attempting the crossing — 3,139 pean leaders are to arrive at Sharm ultimately have its effect on curb- The summit was announced last some Arab leaders, including Su- in 2017, 2,299 in 2018 and 217 so far el-Sheikh’s International Congress ing illegal immigration from these September during a visit to Cairo danese President Omar al-Bashir this year. Centre before the opening ceremo- countries.” by European Council President and Syrian President Bashar Assad. Many of those making the pre- ny February 24. Donald Tusk and Austrian Chan- Neither al-Bashir nor Assad will at- carious journey to Europe are The first day of the summit was Amr Emam is a Cairo-based cellor Sebastian Kurz, who holds tend the Sharm el-Sheikh meeting. fleeing violence and bloodshed to include one session. The second contributor to The Arab Weekly. February 24, 2019 19 News & Analysis East West Think-tanks show ‘ideas matter’ Thomas Frank and empowerment that led up to the ‘Arab spring,’” which made them a target of political lead- Washington ers trying to retain power, Salem said during a panel discussion ndependent research organi- January 31. sations in the Middle East “The effectiveness of think- have helped reform govern- tanks is the reason governments I ments and engage the public stamp out think-tanks first. They in politics, showing that ideas are primary targets of authoritar- matter, a panel of experts said. ian backlash. In many cases they In Washington, think-tanks are more dangerous than other have been influential but they institutions. It does indicate the have gone “tribal,” shifting from degree to which these ideas mat- analysis to advocacy. ter,” he said. “The rise of think-tanks in the Sami Atallah, current director of Middle East changed the narra- the Lebanese Policy Centre, said tive,” said Paul Salem, president that think-tanks still struggle to of the Middle East Institute in influence political parties to en- Washington. “Now policy and gage in ideas. public affairs were being owned “It’s very important to bring by the society. It’s something we something new to the table, have can talk about. It’s not up to the solid policy research and insist government and the politicians. we’re providing knowledge that It’s something society and social they didn’t have before,” Atallah institutions can debate. That was said, speaking by phone from Bei- new.” rut. “Political parties are not com- Salem founded the Lebanese peting over policy ideas. They are Centre for Policy Studies in 1989 competing based on ideologies, in Beirut and, as he ran it in the regional rivalries, but little on 1990s, he said he saw how think- how they’re going to create jobs tanks in the Middle East produced or fix the economy or the health- policy leaders and informed the care system. They don’t need to public. even produce a programme to be elected.” In Washington, which is home Washington think-tanks to numerous think-tanks devoted used to accommodate to foreign affairs and the Middle Shaping policies. A file picture shows US Senator Marco Rubio speaking at the Hudson Institute in diverse viewpoints but East, those organisations have Washington. (AFP) have become more started to focus increasingly on “tribal” over certain advocacy and less on analysis, accommodate diverse viewpoints lis said. His think-tank was criti- rything. It’s very difficult to do regional conflicts. said Brian Katulis, a national-se- but have become more “tribal” cised by some of its own members here and is made so much worse curity analyst at the liberal Centre over certain regional conflicts, and supporters when it hosted Is- by Twitter,” Salem said. “In the Middle East in the 1990s, for American Progress and who such as the dispute between Qatar raeli Prime Minister Binyamin Ne- Randa Slim, director of conflict people were thirsty for informa- has advised Democratic politi- and its Arabian Gulf neighbours. tanyahu in November 2015. Many resolution at the Middle East In- tion and analysis other than what cians, including former US Presi- US liberals oppose Netanyahu and stitute, said think-tanks are so governments put out. Think-tanks dent Bill Clinton. President of the Middle his conservative Likud party, par- rigid because they are “male- were leaders in the civil-society The change has been driven by East Institute in ticularly over their policy of ex- dominated.” movements not only in terms of the unpredictable nature of US Washington panding Jewish settlements in the “Women leaders in think-tanks, mobilisation but in terms of put- President Donald Trump and the Paul Salem West Bank. even those I disagree with, find ting out the ideas that other in- growing influence of social me- Salem said that when he moved common ground and respect each “The rise of think-tanks in stitutions rallied around, such as dia. “It’s creating incentives for from Beirut to the United States in other’s opinions,” Slim said. “As the Middle East changed the fighting corruption, human rights scholars to just react to the latest 2013, he was struck that “there’s the community becomes more narrative.” and democratic reform,” Salem [Trump] decision. There’s a ten- very little actual freedom of opin- inclusive, that sectarianism is said. “We excited people and mo- dency to draw conclusions when ion and debate” as liberals and bound to change.” bilised them.” we don’t even understand what “It’s gotten really personal for a conservatives cling to ideologies. Middle East think-tanks “were he’s done,” Katulis said. lot of people who won’t sit on pan- “In Beirut, London, Tel Aviv, you Thomas Frank is an Arab Weekly very much part of the awakening Washington think-tanks used to els that they disagree with,” Katu- can have great debates about eve- correspondent in Washington.

Viewpoint In Washington, consensus on ‘Arab spring’ failures, few solutions ight years after the levels of power. a mortal threat. If the state fell un- Other writers challenge the idea Gregory Aftandilian “Arab spring,” think- This episode leads to the third der Islamist control, the nature of that having the Western world tank writers and others point of consensus: in many society would change dramatically insert itself more heavily would in the Washington cases, the old regimes that expe- and personal freedoms would have solved the region’s problems. policy community rienced the “Arab spring” never be curtailed. They argue that such interven- continue to grapple really went away. While several Others point out that one of the tion would not have ended the Ewith the uprisings’ failures — with so-called strongmen were ousted, main reasons for the failure of the conflicts between secularists and Tunisia being the exception. much of the apparatus under “Arab spring” was that the Arab Islamists; perhaps it would have One consensus that has devel- them remained. After giving lip countries suffered from divided made them worse. Nor could they oped is that hoped-for democ- service to the dawn of a new era, societies, not just between Islam- have diminished the economic ratisation did not come about state functionaries regrouped and ists and secularists. They point problems in those countries with- because authoritarian states were either restored the old order or to sectarian and ethnic conflicts out a major revamping of the gov- weak or had weak institutions. In threw their weight behind various and subnational loyalties. These ernment’s role in society. This can other words, despite the percep- factions in subsequent civil strife. identities were suppressed by the only be done by elements within tion that those states were strong After these points of agreement, authoritarian regimes, or one was the countries. because they were ruled by strong the consensus stops. Some ana- favoured over others, but when Why Tunisia succeeded — men, they were, in fact, very brit- lysts say one of the chief reasons the lid of authoritarianism was though it still has major problems tle because, with the exception for the failures — again with the removed, it was time to settle old — compared to other Arab coun- of the military establishment in exception of Tunisia — is that scores. tries has been the subject of differ- some cases, institutions such as the states lacked a strong middle The resort to violence was not ent interpretations. Some writers legislatures, the judiciary and civil class and, as European history has surprising, some writers said, be- have emphasised the relatively society were often appendages of shown, without the strength of the cause the art of political compro- small size of the armed forces, the ruling regimes and not inde- middle class, a new liberal order mise was absent. Instead, politics others the substantial size of the pendent actors. has little chance of succeeding. became not only a zero-sum game middle class and still others noted Another point of consensus is Others challenge that assertion but an existential one. In Syria, the strength of the trade unions. that “revolutionaries” — often by noting it was not the size of Libya and Yemen — countries The one consensus is that Tuni- university-educated, middle-class the middle class that mattered fragmented into armed zones sians have done a much better job young people — were good at but that people in this economic — the result was terrible human of pursuing political compromise mobilisation through social media class were divided ideologically suffering. than any others in the region. but did not understand how between Islamists and secularists. The role of the international Interestingly, there seems to power works and how to create Each of these groups had funda- community is also contentious. be consensus among Washington political forces that could rule the mental differences in their outlook Some writers fault the United policy writers that, unless exist- state. and the role of the state and their States and the European coun- ing authoritarian regimes reform, One of the main The case of Egypt is often cited. visions for the future could not be tries for not providing sufficient another political explosion is reasons for the failure Young people who rallied people reconciled. economic and political support for going to happen. They give sound to go to Tahrir Square and often For many Islamists, long sup- the “Arab spring” to succeed. They advice on what needs to change: of the “Arab spring” out-foxed police had a disdain for pressed by the authoritarian cite the lack of a Marshall Plan for creating more private sector jobs, was that the Arab parliamentary politics. They ap- state, now was their moment, the Arab world and note that the a new social contract, a reformed countries suffered parently believed that, by being an and they were determined to take problems of high youth unemploy- educational system that empha- outside pressure group, they could advantage of their organisational ment, government corruption, the sises independent thinking and from divided keep the replacement government abilities — not just in mobilising breakdown of the social contract more government accountability. societies, not just on a democratic path. They forgot adherents but getting them to the and lack of accountability — often The problem is how to get from the lesson from other revolu- polls — to implement the Islamist cited as the causes of the “Arab point A to B and to convince the between Islamists and tions that bringing down a regime project. spring” — were not ameliorated by current leaders that such policies secularists. requires a group to take over all For secularists, this project was the international community. are worth pursuing. 20 February 24, 2019 Economy

Briefs Interview Libya’s NOC to assess security Egyptian petroleum minister fleshes at El Sharara before resuming out country’s progress as regional hub production

made a point of investing in the Petrojet also operates in south- Fajr Jordan. The National Oil Corporation Arab region, especially through ern Iraq in the manufacture of Egypt is also participating in (NOC), Libya’s state oil company, Mohamed projects that promote interna- ready-for-use equipment for investment projects in the United will reopen the El Sharara oilfield, Hammad tional cooperation. distillation towers, air coolers, heat Arab Emirates. Petrojet has the country’s biggest, after an Molla said Petrojet, a subsidiary exchangers, pressure vessels, steel completed work on the Yas-Mina inspection to establish security, a of the Petroleum Ministry, was installations and pipes. The project Zayed gas pipeline project, laying spokesman said. executing the second phase of the employs about 1,500 people. pipelines over 30km on behalf of The comments came shortly al-Zubair gas project in Iraq for the Molla said constructing a gas the Egyptian Gasco Company. after officials for eastern Libyan gyptian Minister of Oil Projects Company. He also treatment plant in Siba field in Iraq Moreover, Petrojet is executing the forces said they handed over con- Petroleum Tarek revealed that a partnership had been completed. “We will integrated development project of trol of the field to an oil security el-Molla said Cairo agreement had been signed to renew the contract for importing Rumaitha-Shanayel station in the force to encourage NOC to restart would soon strengthen cooperation with the crude oil from Iraq for another UAE on behalf of ADNOC Onshore production, which has been halted announce its first General Company for Heavy year and with the same quanti- and the City Gas Network project since December. international bid for Engineering Equipment, one of ties,” he said. for ADNOC Distribution Company. oil and gas explora- the companies of The Petroleum Ministry on Molla said Petrojet is involved in (Reuters) Etion in the country’s Red Sea the Iraqi February 12 announced awarding five projects in Saudi Arabia, territory, as a step towards Egypt Ministry of 12 oil and gas exploration and including working on treatment of increasing its position among Oil. drilling concessions in the Gulf of oily drainage water for ENPPI of natural gas suppliers in the Suez, Western and Eastern Desert, Egypt, a fuel supply project in Raising rates region. Mediterranean and Nile Delta Al-Yamamah and a pipeline Molla said the ministry carried regions to nine international agreement for the Arab Gas not enough to out two seismic surveys in the Red companies through two interna- Company. Sea and southern Egypt that tional tenders. The other projects include the curb inflation indicated “positive signs that Cairo previously said it would Haradh pipeline for ENPPI and the in Tunisia encouraged us to submit tenders supply Egyptian refineries civil, mechanical and electrical to international companies for the with about 12 million works for the Hawiyah gas plant extraction of oil and gas in that barrels of Iraqi crude oil for Saipem and Saudi Aramco. Tunisia’s central bank chief said virgin region.” in 2018. Moreover, 26 The civil and mechanical works on February 20 that raising inter- “This procedure would not have crude oil depots were set project for the renovation of a fire est rates was not enough to curb been possible without the up in Kuwait as part of extinguishing network at Al Khafji inflation and other measures were delimitation of the maritime the Lower Fars heavy plant in Saudi Arabia, which needed. border with Saudi Arabia in oil development includes 39 warehouses, was The bank raised its key interest April 2016. [The agreement] programme oper- assigned to Egyptian ENPPI and Al rate to 7.75% from 6.75% to com- enabled Egypt to search and ated by Petrofac for Khafji Joint Operations Company. bat high inflation, the third such explore in this region for the the Kuwait Oil ENPPI was awarded the contract hike in the past 12 months. first time,” Molla said. Company. In for the civil and electromechanical Governor Marouane El Abassi The surveys were carried addition, Petrojet works for two pipelines for the said the current account deficit out by US companies TGS and has completed benefit of Nabec and Aramco. hit record high in 2018, reaching Schlumberger at a cost of about construction of 11.2% of GDP. $750 million. the expansion Mohamed Hammad is an Egyptian Tenders for oil and gas explora- project of the writer. (Reuters) tion in the Red Sea were to have Timimoun gas process- been announced last December ing plant in Algeria. but Molla said Egyptian officials Molla also pointed out that The Egyptian decided to wait to better market the ministry was involved in a government has made To fight off the promising potential in the gas pipeline project in region. northern Jordan for the a point of investing in unemployment, The Red Sea tender is expected Egyptian company Engineer- the Arab region, to attract more foreign invest- ing for the Petroleum and Iraqi youth plant ments to the region, which has Process Industries (ENPPI), especially through been far from the attention of the general contractor of the projects that promote start-up seeds international oil drilling compa- project in cooperation with nies until the border demarcation international Stuck between a lengthy waitlist with Saudi Arabia. Long-term ambitions. Egypt’s Minister of Petroleum and Mineral Resources cooperation. for a government job and a frail The Egyptian government has Tarek el-Molla arrives for a meeting in Nicosia, last September. (Reuters) private sector, Iraqi entrepreneurs are taking on staggering unemploy- ment by establishing their own start-ups. Reforms attract more foreign banks to Saudi Arabia With the Islamic State defeated, co-working spaces and incubators are flourishing in a country whose Salam Sarhan tlement services in the business owned assets and the financing of investment deals. unemployment rate hovers around sector, Imura pointed out. private sector activities to help the The Saudi privatisation pro- 10% but whose public sector is too The Saudi Press Agency said Su- country diversify its economy and gramme could ease the pressures bloated to hire. London mitomo Mitsui would provide a reduce its reliance on oil revenues. on the country’s financial reserves, “We’re trying to create a new range of banking and consultancy Last year, Riyadh unveiled a which had fallen sharply the past generation with a different state of umitomo Mitsui Bank is the services for Japanese companies in large-scale programme to sell gov- two years but have since returned mind,” said Haidar Hamzoz, execu- first Japanese bank to open Saudi Arabia, in addition to contrib- ernment assets in sectors ranging to record highs after oil prices rose. tive director at “The Station,” which a branch in Riyadh. Observ- uting to increased opportunities for from health care to airports and Reports indicate that foreign in- provides workspace for start-ups. S ers said more international financing oil and gas projects. said it expected to reap revenues vestors recorded net purchases in “We want to tell youth that they financial institutions are likely to Analysts said the willingness of from that process of up to $200 bil- the Saudi stock market last year. Fi- can start their own project, achieve follow suit as investment oppor- foreign banks to work in Saudi Ara- lion in the coming years. nancial studies predicted a large in- their dreams and not just be happy tunities open in the Saudi market bia has increased since reforms of The government asserts that the flow of investments after the easing in a government job they didn’t because of the country’s economic financial regulations and acceler- administrative arrangements have of financial rules and the listing of even want,” he said. reforms and restructuring pro- ated economic growth. It has been been completed and that it plans the Saudi Stock Exchange on global grammes. spurred by increased government to begin privatising some assets in indexes for emerging markets. (Agence France-Presse) Banks and foreign fund manag- spending and oil revenues and the sports, electricity, water and grain Riyadh has relaxed restrictions ers have been looking to expand implementation of a programme to silos this year. on market transactions by adjusting into Saudi Arabia since it unveiled sell government assets. the time for settlement of securities a privatisation plan aimed at large Last year, Swiss bank Credit Sui- transactions to within two business Turkey set to government institutions. sse and US investment bank Moelis Sumitomo Mitsui will days after the date of execution of Several international banks have & Company applied for licences to provide a range of banking the transaction and allowing lend- begin oil and gas secured licences to operate in Saudi operate in Saudi Arabia. Citigroup and consultancy services for ing and borrowing of securities in Arabia and other institutions have was granted a banking licence in Japanese companies in addition to short selling. drilling off Cyprus submitted requests encouraged by April 2018, returning to the coun- Saudi Arabia, in addition to Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed reforms, increasing government try after an absence of more than contributing to increased bin Salman bin Abdulaziz, dur- Turkey will soon begin drill- spending on strategic projects and 13 years. Goldman Sachs received opportunities for financing ing the recent laying of the foun- ing for oil and gas near Cyprus, the influx of investment to the approval to trade in Saudi stocks dation al-Ula projects in western state-owned news agency Anadolu country. in August 2017. Other international oil and gas projects. Saudi Arabia, said there were major reported Turkish Foreign Minister During the opening ceremony of banks are racing to strengthen their strategic projects to soon be an- Mevlut Cavusoglu saying, a move the Sumitomo Mitsui branch, Japa- positions in the country. When implemented, the privati- nounced. that could stoke tensions with nese Ambassador to Saudi Arabia Saudi authorities require foreign sation plan would help restructure Al-Ula projects aim to develop neighbouring Cyprus and Greece. Tsukasa Imura said he hoped the financial services companies to the Saudi economy by involving the the region in a responsible manner “In the coming days we will start bank would play a pivotal role in obtain licences to conduct certain private sector in various categories to transform it into a World Herit- drilling with two ships around attracting Japanese investors to the activities in the country’s financial and would help shore up the fiscal age destination while preserving Cyprus,” Cavusoglu was quoted Saudi market. markets, such as advisory roles in situation affected by the fall in oil the natural and cultural heritage in as saying in a speech to a business Sumitomo Mitsui Bank, one of initial public tenders and mergers prices. extensive programmes to activate conference in western Turkey’s the largest banks in the world, has and acquisitions. Riyadh said it would show flexi- tourism and leisure industries in Aydin province. extensive experience in the inte- A series of other deals are ex- bility in choosing the structure that Saudi Arabia. grated financial and banking ser- pected because of Saudi Arabia’s buyers prefer, including initial pro- (Reuters) vices, including deposit and set- planned privatisation of state- posals, private offerings and direct Salam Sarhan is an Iraqi writer. February 24, 2019 21 Economy Washington experts see oil markets as ‘stable’

Kelly Kennedy

Washington

ven as oil prices went down in February and sanctions hit and Iran, E oil experts in Washington, said they viewed the short-term oil market as generally “stable.” “We, broadly speaking, see a balanced market this year,” Mi- chael Wittner, global head of oil market research at Societe Gen- erale, said February 21 at the Cen- tre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington. OPEC and Russia cut oil ex- ports in January, which Wittner called “very active market man- agement,” and the United States’ sanctions on Venezuela limited oil supply there, as have US sanctions on Iran.

By the fourth quarter of 2020, EIA said it expects the United States to be a net exporter of crude oil and petroleum products of about 1.1 million bpd.

The United States increased ex- ports by 2 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil from last year, to 11.7 million bpd, the Energy Infor- mation Administration (EIA) said. By the fourth quarter of 2020, EIA said it expects the United States to be a net exporter of crude oil and petroleum products of about An employee walks up the stairs at the Gazprom Neft oil refinery in Moscow. (Reuters) 1.1 million bpd. Alternative supplies. “We’ve had kind of a wild ride,” said Howard Gruenspecht, senior associate of the energy and na- transformation will also affect the “No one really believes go-to- said it was “crucial” for OPEC to “The last quarter was not sta- tional security programme at CSIS. future of oil. zero is the next step,” Book said, look at the oversupply of the fu- ble,” he said. He said oil expenditures were 13% Sanctions haven’t had a huge ef- referring to a threat from US na- ture. As energy sources change, He said Venezuela would likely of US GDP at the time of the Irani- fect on world economies, experts tional security adviser John Bol- she said supply would peak by “take a really long time, in our an Revolution and 23% in 2017. US said. ton to use sanctions to push Ira- 2036. judgment, to get production up crude oil production nearly dou- Kevin Book, a senior associate nian oil exports to zero. If it were, Edward Morse, global head of again.” He said he wondered bled over the past decade, he said. with the energy and national se- it would likely force up prices for commodities research at Citi- where the capital would come Still, attention is being paid to curity programme at CSIS, said oil other supplies of oil. group, said he doesn’t see the from to rebuild Venezuela’s oil in- potential problems, such as insta- from Iran could be replaced with “We see OPEC meeting de- market as stable, especially con- dustry. bility in Iran, Venezuela and Libya. Russian or US offshore “medium- mand,” said Ann-Louise Hittle, sidering record oil prices suddenly In the United States, political calls sour” crude oil, so it shouldn’t af- vice-president of oils research at dropping as China argues with the Kelly Kennedy is an Arab Weekly for increased renewable energy fect the market. Wood Mackenzie. However, she United States about trade. correspondent in Washington. Is Kuwait rethinking its oil expansion plans?

Jareer Elass ity to 2 million bpd from 800,000 unable to maintain current living bpd. “To achieve these targets, KPC standards for future generations. plans to spend $114 billion in capi- The IMF said the Kuwaiti govern- Washington tal expenditure over the next five ment must curb its elevated public years and an additional $394 billion wage bill — accounting for 18% of uwait may be reassessing beyond that to 2040,” Adsani said. GDP — by encouraging Kuwaiti na- plans to spend $500 billion Kuwaiti Oil Minister Khaled al- tionals to turn to the private sector by 2040 to boost the Gulf Fadhel has thrown cold water on for employment. K producer’s oil sector ca- those ambitious plans. He was It called for the government to pacity but it said it would increase quoted in local media as saying phase out fuel, electricity and wa- capital expenditures to stimulate that, while he was not opposed to ter subsidies. The Gulf country’s the domestic economy. the expansion programme, the pro- fuel and utility subsidy costs total While lauding Kuwait’s economic jected dollar amount to be spent 5.3% of GDP. In addition, the IMF growth, the International Monetary was “optimistic.” recommended broadening the Fund (IMF) cautioned that unless The steep drop in international country’s profit tax and implement- the Gulf state enacts steep fiscal oil prices in the last quarter of 2018 ing a luxury goods tax. reforms, there will not be adequate may have prompted a review of the Highlighting Kuwait’s solid finan- savings to maintain the current life- cost of KPC’s expansion plans. Fric- cial situation, the fund noted: “Am- style enjoyed by Kuwaiti nationals. tion between the Kuwaiti govern- ple financial assets, low debt and a In January 2018, Nizar al-Adsani, ment and parliament stymies pro- sound banking sector allow Kuwait CEO of state oil firm Kuwait Petrole- gress on major initiatives. to undertake the needed reforms um Corporation (KPC), announced In addition to reassessing its oil from a position of strength and at a the company planned to imple- sector plans, KPC appears to be in measured pace.” ment energy projects totalling $500 a consolidation mode, with reports The elimination of energy-re- billion over the next two decades, that the state energy firm is con- At a measured pace. Kuwaiti Minister of Finance Nayef al-Hajraf lated subsidies and the notion of which included expanding Ku- sidering merging four subsidiaries speaks during a news conference in Kuwait City to announce the new taxes on citizens are extreme- wait’s crude production from about — Kuwait Foreign Petroleum Com- 2019-20 budget, last January. (AFP) ly unpopular in Kuwait, with the 3.1 million barrels per day (bpd) to pany, Kuwait Oil Tanker Company, government facing resistance from 4.75 million bpd. Kuwait Gulf Oil Company and Ku- parliamentarians on such sugges- wait Integrated Petroleum Indus- estimated at $25.4 billion. source of conflict between the Ku- tions. The national assembly is con- tries Company — into larger units. “The new budget aims to drive waiti government and the national sidering a measure to reduce petrol The steep drop in KPC is also mulling streamlining its economic growth by maintaining assembly. The IMF said Kuwait’s prices after the government cut fuel international oil prices in eight business units into four. a high capex ratio of 17%,” while economy grew 1.7% in 2018 after a subsidies three years ago. the last quarter of 2018 While the state oil firm may “tightening controls to curb waste- 3.5% contraction the previous year It was pushback from parliament may have prompted a be reining in its expansion pro- ful spending and continue to grad- and should expand 2.9% in 2019. that has delayed Kuwait introduc- review of the cost of KPC’s gramme, the Kuwaiti government ually introduce fiscal reform,” said The IMF reported that Kuwait’s ing a 5% value added tax until fiscal boosted spending for fiscal year Kuwaiti Finance Minister Nayef al- non-oil growth will get a strong lift year 2021-22, though the Gulf coun- expansion plans. 2019-20, which begins April 1. The Hajraf. from the acceleration of “capital try is expected to implement a “sin” budget forecasts spending to rise The IMF touted the recovery of project implementation,” with the tax on sugary drinks and tobacco in KPC’s other goals were to grow 4.7% to $74.1 billion, with anticipat- the Gulf producer’s economy in Gulf state’s non-oil growth increas- fiscal year 2020-21. Kuwait’s natural gas output from ed revenues of $53.7 billion. The def- 2018 and sees further growth in ing from 2.5% in 2018 to 3.5% in 200 million cubic feet per day to icit, which is calculated after 10% the short term but the organisation 2020. However, the fund warned, Jareer Elass reports from 2.5 billion cubic feet per day and to of revenue is dedicated to the Gulf strongly advised Kuwait to embrace the government needed to tackle Washington on energy issues for raise the Gulf state’s refining capac- state’s Future Generations Fund, is deep economic reforms that are a greater reforms or Kuwait would be The Arab Weekly. 22 February 24, 2019 Society

Shedding the headscarf, Turkish women tell of pressures and new solidarity

Thomas Seibert However, the country is seeing a stances the women’s decision was change in its citizens’ views of reli- very personal and had more to do gion. A survey by the Konda polling with the wish to change their own Istanbul firm indicated that the percentage of life than with politics. women covering their hair has fallen “Some want to do sports or play usra Cebeci was 19 when she to 34%, from 37% a decade ago. Only theatre, some just feel prettier with- took one of the most diffi- a slim majority of Turks (51%) de- out the headscarf, some want a cer- cult decisions of her life. The scribed themselves as pious, down tain hairstyle,” she said. B young Turkish woman took from 55% in 2008. Cebeci added that the fact that off her Islamic headscarf, triggering Since rising to power in 2002, women decide to wear their hair a bitter row with her father, an ob- the Justice and Development Party openly is nothing new in Turkey. servant Muslim, who refused to talk (AKP) of President Recep Tayyip Er- What has changed is that women to her for more than a year. dogan, an organisation with roots in taking off the headscarf in Turkey Her decision shocked her fam- political Islam, has abolished regu- today no longer feel alone. ily in her hometown of Boyabat in lations that banned veiled women “They used to withhold their central Turkey. “My father thought from working or studying in public names when they talked about it but I was going to roast in hell,” Cebeci, institutions. As a result, university today they post their pictures on the now 25, said. “My mother said she students, teachers, lawyers or po- internet,” Cebeci said. The world- would be ashamed to be seen on the lice officers covering their hair have wide web and social media were street with me.” become commonplace. providing a “big net of solidarity.” As a Turkish journalist, Cebeci After publishing articles and in- has talked with dozens of women Cebeci said many women terviews on the issue in Turkish me- who have taken the same step. “The dia, Cebeci said she received many main pressure takes place inside the were tired of being made messages from women telling her: “mascots” in political A personal decision. Turkish journalist Busra Cebeci without the families,” she said. “The family is “I thought I was alone with this, I headscarf. (Courtesy of Busra Cebeci) like a little state and has much big- battles between AKP didn’t know there were other wom- ger means of punishment than the supporters and the en going through this.” real state. When women want to opposition. A recent worldwide Twitter ini- women a voice. Cebeci said many women were take off their headscarf, they must tiative, #10YearChallenge, led doz- “For the first time in my 18-year- tired of being made “mascots” in confront their fathers, their brothers Erdogan and his supporters say ens of women in Turkey to write on old life I have done something that political battles between AKP sup- or their husbands.” the government respects secular the micro-blogging site about their makes me feel like myself,” one porters and the opposition. Sometimes women pay a high lifestyles and is not forcing women choice to uncover their hair. Many woman wrote on the website. “It “If you are wearing a headscarf, price, she added. “Some women to wear a headscarf. “Women are posted before-and-after pictures has not been easy. I was more or less you fulfil a certain cliche,” she said. have been beaten. Others have tried free to not cover their hair or to cov- showing them with and without a ready for the response I was going to “You vote AKP, you don’t have sex to commit suicide. In one case, a er their hair,” wrote Ozlem Albayrak, headscarf. Cebeci joined in, com- get but it was harder than I thought and so on. Women no longer want to woman ended up in a mental insti- a columnist for the pro-government menting: “I can’t hold myself back and it still is.” deal with prejudices like that.” tution,” she said. Yeni Safak newspaper. “None of us any longer. I am in it as well.” “Don’t be afraid of anyone, my On Yalniz Yurumeyeceksin, one In Turkey, a Muslim nation and has the right to question choices A website, called “Yalniz Yu- friends,” wrote another woman, woman echoed that sentiment. EU candidate country of 80 million that people make for themselves.” rumeyeceksin” (“You’ll Never Walk who said she had taken off the head- “Just leave it to women to decide people that has secular principles Still, commentators have sug- Alone”), gives women an opportuni- scarf at the age of 47 after wearing it how they want to live,” she wrote. and equality of the sexes enshrined gested that taking off the veil could ty to talk anonymously about expe- for 30 years. “I will keep living with Erdogan has not commented in the constitution, most women be a sign of protest against the AKP. riences in shedding the veil and has my hair blowing in the wind and be- on the website or the Twitter wear the veil. Cebeci, however, said in many in- developed into another tool giving coming wet in the rain.” campaign. Viewpoint Heated debate on civil marriage re-emerges in Lebanon

he annual budget of aforementioned is unconstitu- the religious courts in tional. Lebanon is more than Perhaps more important, Has- Makram Rabah $41 million, a huge san and her fellow politicians, number when com- instead of merely speaking about pared to the $25 mil- reform, must translate their Tlion that three of the main min- intent into action by proposing istries — Environment, Industry laws in the cabinet or bills on the and Youth and Sports — receive parliament floor. annually for many important and In 2013, Prime Minister Saad underfunded projects. Hariri, Hassan’s political patron, This simple yet revealing publicly endorsed civil marriage, budgetary fact, published by Gh- yet his liberal promises and soap- erbal Initiative, an online portal box tactics never made it beyond encouraging accountability and his social media channels and transparency, clearly frames the petered out. debate involving the adoption of It is no longer acceptable for a law that allows optional civil the political elite to exploit these marriage in Lebanon. matters to divert attention from The resurfacing of this debate their continued mismanagement was brought about after Interior of public funds. Minister Raya El Hassan declared While the Lebanese were mis- she would work to convince reli- directed by the civil marriage de- gious authorities to allow the law bate, the Hariri cabinet advanced to be enacted. Electricite Du Liban, Lebanon’s Since assuming office, Hassan, main electricity producer, $265 the first women Interior minis- In hot water. Lebanon’s Interior Minister Raya El Hassan at the million to pay its fuel bills and to ter in the Arab world, has taken Interior Ministry in Beirut, February 6. (AP) keep its plants operating. assertive measures and given the What is essentially needed is for weary public a sliver of hope. these so-called champions of civil However, Hassan’s supposed religious centres only to make yet she failed to explain why such marriage to place the issue on good deed over civil marriage them more powerful and control- an empowered faction would the parliament table so the wider yielded opposite results because ling of their communities. This is even contemplate the matter. public can call out many who religious authorities have taken to partly due to a few factors, some If the $41 million does not pro- claim to be liberal but, in fact, the offensive, dismissing talk of of which have to do with the vide enough material incentive support the archaic Lebanese civil marriage as blasphemous. predominant civil society culture for the factions to resist change, political system. This reactionary attitude is that lacks vision yet compensates the sense of entailment and Most properly this farce will neither new nor unexpected from this deficiency with opportunism leverage it gives them over their soon repeat itself, if not in the the Lebanese religious, who have and populism. subjects is immeasurable. civil marriage debate perhaps repeatedly repelled attempts to More important is the fact that Any real effort to impose secu- involving electoral law, domestic Any real effort to curb their control over personal the Lebanese in general do not lar reforms should not sit at the violence or other worthy causes status laws of their communities. seem to respect or acknowledge same table with these supposed that will rise only to be killed and impose secular The fatal error of Hassan and the legal notion of conflict of “religious leaders” because any buried by the Lebanese political reforms should not sit many other civil society groups interest, which should lead them such exercise will be futile and system bent on corruption and, at the same table with that have tried to pass secular re- to refuse to even debate this topic empowering to the latter group. above all, hypocrisy. forms is that they have chosen to with factions benefiting from the The right to enter wedlock these supposed play a populist game that cannot matter being discussed — in this and to exit it is enshrined in the Makram Rabah is a lecturer at “religious leaders” be won under the current circum- case civil marriage. Universal Declaration of Human the American University of Beirut stances. Hassan gullibly declared she Rights and, given that Lebanon and author of “A Campus at War: because any such In the past, civil society activ- would engage the heads of the re- is a signatory of that treaty, any Student Politics at the American exercise will be futile. ists have tried to weaken the ligious authorities in open debate, local legislation that prevents the University of Beirut, 1967-1975.” February 24, 2019 23 Culture Baghdad book fair draws a record 1 million visitors

Oumayma Omar security and stability in Baghdad after years of conflict and terrorism, many Arab and foreign publishing Baghdad houses participated for the first time at the fair, which took place Febru- t is the most important cul- ary 7-18. tural event and I make sure “It was a great achievement for “ to attend every year,” said the country and for us as organis- I university student Ahmad ers. It amounted to an international Jassem, 22, as he entered Baghdad acknowledgement of Baghdad’s im- International Book Fair. portant cultural standing in the Arab “It is the first weekend that I skip world and throughout the ages,” going to Al Mutanabbi Street (Bagh- Radi said. dad’s historical bookselling hub). The event involved prominent With the large number of titles of- Iraqi, Arab and international writ- fered in the fair, I am certain that ers signing books and participat- I will find new literature and scien- ing in discussions and answer the tific books that I need,” he said. public’s queries. Among them were Some 700 publishing houses and Jordanian-Palestinian novelist and bookshops from 23 countries de- poet Ibrahim Nasrallah, the winner scended on Baghdad for the 46th of the International Prize for Arabic Baghdad International Book Fair, Fiction for “The Second War of the which occupied an area of 10,000 Dog”; Lebanese poet Zahi Wehbe; sq.metres, the largest in the history Georges Kurdahi, a Lebanese media of the event since it began in 1979, figure; and Portuguese poet Afonso said Abdel Wahab al-Radi, president Cruz. of the Federation of Iraqi publishers. Lebanese publishers were also largely represented at the fair this year. Encouraged by the relative “Taking part in Baghdad’s book A buzzing event. Visitors walk past the pavilion of Lebanon’s Dar al Saqi publishing house at the security in Baghdad after fair is of great value for Arab pub- Baghdad International Book Fair. (Oumayma Omar) years of conflict and lishers,” said Nasser Rahouli, rep- terrorism, many Arab and resentative of the North Lebanon foreign publishing houses Publishing house. “The Iraqi market readers and this we cannot disre- Children enjoyed listening to sto- be beyond any censorship “as long participated for the first cannot be ignored given that Iraqis gard,” said Hicham Karam, market- rytelling by the stories’ writers in as knowledge and thought promote time at the fair. have such a great passion for books ing officer of Dar al Saqi. a cosy and festive atmosphere. “I freedom, peace, human dignity and and reading.” Karam complained about book can’t describe my feeling of joy amid good coexistence among people.” “It is the most important edition Dar al Saqi, one of Lebanon’s big- forgery and copyright violations. “It this ‘jungle of books.’ Since learn- The 46th Baghdad International by far, in terms of the number of gest publishing houses, occupied is one of the greatest problems that ing how to read and write I always Book Fair was one of the most suc- participants and the large variety of a large pavilion that featured some we encounter in Iraq. Many of our have a book in my hand. My mother cessful editions, drawing a record books on display,” Radi said. “None 550 titles, including new releases most popular publications are being makes sure to take me to Al Mutan- 1 million visitors, mostly among of the proposed titles was banned or by prominent Arab authors such as pirated,” he said. abbi Street every now and then to younger generations, Radi said. censored. Participants had the free- Syrian thinker Muhammad Shahrur, A corner on the fair was dedi- buy new books,” said Farah Rachid, “It is a message that Baghdad is dom to offer new books covering Saudi novelist Mohammed Hasan cated to children’s activities and 8, as she held her latest acquisition, still an advocate of peace and cul- multiple subjects.” Alwan, Egyptian feminist writer animated by authors of children’s a book titled “The Wax Butterfly.” ture and that it has the most readers More than 2 million titles filled Nawal El Saadawi and Syrian writer books, including Iraqi poet and writ- Iraqi President Barham Salih, who in the Arab world,” he added. the shelves at the fair. They includ- and translator Georges Tarabichi. er Qassem Saoudi, mastermind of opened the fair, said that “freedom ed novels, poetry, literature, arts, “It is important and necessary for “Let’s Write in Baghdad” initiative, of thought and expression, which is Oumayma Omar, based in sciences, politics, short stories and us to be part of the Baghdad book which teaches children aged 7-12 to guaranteed under the Iraqi Constitu- Baghdad, is a contributor to the children’s books. fair from an economic and market- write and illustrate short stories for tion, is consolidated by freedom of Culture and Society sections of Encouraged by the relative ing point of view. Iraqis are such big other children. movement of the book” and should The Arab Weekly. GPP Photo Week highlights stories from the Arab world

N.P. Krishna Kumar diences. There is no scarcity of work. The problem is where is this shown? So this initiative by GPP Dubai and Mohammed Somji is really very much welcome,” added Mis- hotography doesn’t mar. change the world. It Murray, during a panel discus- “ doesn’t make it a better sion on “The Shortest Distance P place but, hopefully, it Between Us,” said she was “hum- can help people think about things bled by the courage of the young that they have not thought about,” people, so driven to tell so difficult said Mohamed Somji, co-director stories that are so personal.” of Gulf Photo Plus (GPP), Dubai’s GPP also presented “Facade to centre for photography. Facade” by Emirati artist Hussain Somji was introducing GPP Photo al-Moosawi, which explored the Week 2019, which in its 15th edition rapid urban redevelopment in the focused on the theme “Get Closer.” United Arab Emirates, in its Gallery The event involved more than Space. 13,000 people visiting Alserkal Moosawi, a graphic designer in Avenue exhibitions, workshops, Abu Dhabi, said: “It is part of my talks, activities and other events bigger effort to document the ar- during six days in February. chitectural heritage of the UAE of The headline exhibition was the first three decades starting in “The Shortest Distance Be- the ’70s.” tween Us: Stories from the Arab The 27 buildings across the UAE Documentary Photography Pro- whose facades he photographed gramme,” presented by the Arab represent the aesthetics of its time. Fund for Arts and Culture (AFAC), “We always used to look at herit- in association with the Prince Claus age as something very old. So now Fund and Magnum Foundation. it’s acceptable to say that the ‘80s The exhibition, curated by Jes- were part of the heritage,” he said. sica Murray, featured works from An eye on Arab talent. Rima Mismar (L) with Abdulmonem bin Eisa Alserkal (2nd L), founder of “For one reason, mainly that the seven photographers who were Alserkal Avenue, view one of the exhibits at GPP Photo Week. (GPP) country has been witnessing rapid awarded grants and commissions growth. For us to appreciate what by the Arab Documentary Photog- “Homemade” analysed how ed Wadi al-Qamar, a residential area ciety as a whole. It is bringing fresh we have now, we have to look at raphy Programme. women’s bodies became a burden where 60,000 people live next to a new narratives from very personal what we had 30 years ago.” Elsie Haddad’s “Stranded — On through norms imposed by society cement factory. The cement dust perspectives of the artists them- GPP Photo Week included work- Life after Imprisonment” captured and family. She created a private that layers the streets and homes selves.” shops, demonstrations and talks by the intimate stories of a group of Facebook group in which women causes tremendous health issues internationally renowned photog- ex-convicts in Beirut who had met shared their stories. She persuad- among the residents. “Moon Dust” raphers Zack Arias, Maciej Dakow- in jail. Meanwhile, her youngest ed some of them to work collabo- highlighted the conflict in zoning The event involved more icz, Nick Fancher, Tanya Habjouqa, brother was jailed on a drug charge. ratively to reconstruct their lives that created the situation and the than 13,000 people visiting Mike Kelly, Sara Lando, Asim “Suddenly, the project was inside through image-making. struggle for survival by residents. Alserkal Avenue Rafiqui and Paolo Verzone. my home. It had become very per- Khalifa said she noticed a change Mahdy said “he believed in peo- exhibitions, workshops, The workshop topics included sonal,” she said. in her subjects. They decided to ple” and shared the work to initiate talks, activities and other Street, Architectural and Fine Each story became its own small show their faces, not caring about conversation. events during six days in Art photography. In addition, the book, done in collaboration with the consequences any more. They AFAC Executive Director Rima February. video workshops by Valentina Vee its subjects in which the viewers said they felt liberated. “Story tell- Mismar said: “This medium of covered the fundamentals of vid- could “reflect on the psychological ing offers us a way to heal, to free documentary photography is not eography, an increasingly popular effects of incarceration and what ourselves from the weight of expe- very much developed in the Arab “The problem today is with the field. that meant for their re-entry back rience,” she said. region. These seven projects are channels of distribution. So these into society.” Alexandria-based Mohamed trying to look at certain issues that works of art are not having the N.P. Krishna Kumar is an Arab Heba Khalifa, from Cairo, in Mahdy in “Moon Dust” document- concern the artist as well as the so- chance to be seen by national au- Weekly contributor in Dubai. 24 February 24, 2019 Travel www.thearabweekly.com

Agenda

Beirut: Through March 17

Al Bustan International Festi- val of Music and the Perform- ing Arts is a musical celebra- tion in Beirut that promotes music from all over the world. The festival includes orches- tral concerts, choral music, op- era and dance performances.

Marrakech: Through May 16

The Marrakech Biennale is a festival with the mission to build bridges between cultures through the arts. The seventh edition of the event takes a multidisciplinary approach to A general view of a swimming pool at a five-star hotel in the southern Tunisian resort island of Djerba. (AFP) introduce artists and works primarily from the Arab world, the Mediterranean region and sub-Saharan Africa. Tunisian-Jewish Amman: March 1-3

Dead Sea Fashion Week is an cuisine adds to annual event and country- wide celebration in Jordan of talent, creativity and diver- sity that aims to combine Djerba’s charm the of fashion, art, music and culture. Innovative runway shows, presentations Yassine Halila into the rural Djerban interior. and entertainment encourage When travelling across, rather collaborations and consumer than around, the island, the sporad- relationships between design- Djerba ic mosques and dwellings one finds ers, buyers and media experts. among shrublands and plots of ol- he Tunisian island of Djerba ive trees seem distinct and frozen Beirut: is one of the best known in time. Despite being so open to March 10-15 touristic destinations in the outside world through tourism, T the North African country, the island feels insular. That feel- The Beirut International which relies heavily on tourism and ing grows the further visitors stray A Tunisian Muslim woman buys food from a Jewish restaurant in Women Film Festival is an received a record 8.3 million visi- from the coast. Djerba. (Reuters) annual event that gathers tors last year This is what I found most allur- film-makers and cinema lovers Tourism defines Djerba for most ing about Djerba: a quasi-mystical from around the world. The people. The island is famous for quality borne by a languid feeling of grims every year. Legend has it that affair. Djerba is one place where a festival aims to highlight the sunny, golden beaches lined with antiquity belying the brouhaha of it was established as a sanctuary small but veritable Tunisian-Jewish power of women in various life hotels offering inexpensive all- mass tourism. after Nebuchadnezzar II destroyed food scene exists. situations. inclusive packages to attract Euro- There are clues strewn about Solomon’s temple in 586BC in Jeru- Nearly all the Tunisian-Djerban- pean tourists. Mainland Tunisians ancient records: in Homer’s “Od- salem. Jewish food scene is concentrated Luxor: head to the island during the warm- yssey,” Ulysses and his men are While the vast majority of Jews on a street in Hara Kebira. Only a March 15-21 er months, drawn by a destination shipwrecked on Djerba; an old — who had been living in Arab coun- handful of discerning locals make that is different and distant enough perhaps 1,000 years old — Ibadi mi- tries have left their ancestral homes the trip to the quarter where most The eighth Luxor African Film to feel like a getaway but still retains nority is visible in the distinct archi- since the advent of the Arab/Pal- of the Jewish community is settled Festival will screen films pro- a strong and enticing local flavour. tecture of Djerban mosques. estinian-Israeli conflict, pockets of to indulge in Tunisian-Djerban- duced in African countries in However, there is much more to Undoubtedly, the best and most Jewish communities are scattered Jewish delicacies, such as brik and competitions for Long Narra- the island than sun and sand that alive testament to the island’s hoar- around the Arab world. Two sig- kosher grills. It can get crowded on tives, Long Documentaries and remains largely overlooked or un- iness is its thriving Jewish com- nificant communities that remain Saturdays, however. Short Films. known by foreigners and Tunisians munity. El Ghriba synagogue has a including about 2,000 people dis- Brik is a triangular Tunisian food alike. Of the throngs of tourists who feeling of great holiness and impor- persed around the large cities of made with a thin pastry filled with Zammour, Tunisia: visit the island, only a few venture tance to Judaism and receives pil- Morocco and 1,700 in Tunisia, the egg, tuna, capers, potatoes and oth- March 27-30 majority of whom live in Djerba. er garnishes. Djerba is the largest Jewish en- While common in Tunisia, Tuni- The third Zammour Fest will clave in the MENA region. Num- sian-Jewish brik is a distinct speci- take place in a Berber village in bering around 1,300, residents are ality. Brik Ishak, a hole-in-the-wall the Tunisian Sahara. Over four distributed between two areas of on Hara Kebira’s food street, is the days and three nights, visitors the island known as “Hara Kebira” most popular purveyor with queues camp in Bedouin tents, trek or (“Big Quarter”) and “Hara Seghira” spilling into the street throughout bike in the village, visit moun- (“Small Quarter”). the day. tains, attend folklore parties Besides El Ghriba, the most vis- Also available to sample in this and enjoy traditional food. ible manifestation of Tunisian- unassuming fast-food street are Jewish culture is food. Jewish peo- kosher chicken and spicy beef grills Tunis: ple were among the many shapers and skewers, as well as a fiery meat- April 4-14 of Tunisia’s eclectic cuisine, along ball-kefta concoction. with the various cultures and com- Despite a security checkpoint The 14th Jazz a Carthage, an munities that populated the North protecting the entrance to the quar- annual music festival, brings African country over its 3,000-year ter, Hara Kebira is an easy 7-minute together renowned interna- history. car ride from Houmt Souk, Djerba’s tional and local musicians for However, delicacies specific to downtown and administrative concerts, lectures, exhibitions Tunisian-Jewish cuisine are not centre. and nightly jam sessions. Con- readily available. Besides a couple certs take place in Gammarth, of restaurants in Tunis, Tunisian- Yassine Halila is an Arab Weekly Tunis, Sidi Bou Said and La (Reuters) People eat at a Jewish restaurant in Djerba, Tunisia. Jewish cooking is a mainly homely contributor in Tunis. Marsa.

Merzouga Desert: April 5-15

The Marathon des Sables is one of the most gruelling ultramarathons. Runners must endure extreme weather conditions in the Sahara on a 250km run through sand dunes and elevations in south- ern Morocco.

We welcome submissions of calendar items related to cultural events of interest to travellers in the Middle East and North Africa.

Please send tips to: Kosher meatballs on display at a fast-food restaurant on Hara A Tunisian-Jewish brik piece is served to a customer at Brik Ishak. [email protected] Kebira’s food street. (Facebook) (Courtesy of Brik Ishak)