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Estimation of the Design Rainstorm in Peninsular Malaysia

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Estimation of the Design Rainstorm in Peninsular Malaysia GOVERNMENT OF MALAYSIA VOLUME I - MAIN REPORT REVIEWED AND UPDATED THE HYDROLOGICAL PROCEDURE NO. 1 (ESTIMATION OF DESIGN RAINSTORM IN PENINSULAR MALAYSIA) Prepared for DEPARTMENT OF IRRIGATION AND DRAINAGE MALAYSIA DECEMBER 2010 Prepared by NATIONAL HYDRAULIC RESEARCH INSTITUTE OF MALAYSIA Lot 5377, Jalan Putra Permai, 43300 Seri Kembangan, Selangor Tel: 03-89382470 Fax: 03-89382469 FINAL REPORT: REVIEWED AND UPDATED VERSION OF HYDROLOGICAL PROCEDURE NO.1 VOLUME I ESTIMATION OF DESIGN RAINSTORM IN PENINSULAR MALAYSIA DECEMBER 2010 Final Report: Reviewed and Updated the Hydrological Procedure No.1 – Estimation of Design Rainstorm in Peninsular Malaysia TABLE OF CONTENTS 1 Introduction .................................................................................................................1 1.1 Background and General Review ...................................................................1 1.2 Objective .........................................................................................................3 1.3 Scope of Revision and Update .......................................................................3 1.4 Concerned Issues and Statements in the Proposed Revision and Update...3 1.4.1 Reviews on the Choice of Frequency Distribution .............................3 1.4.2 Short Duration Analysis ......................................................................4 1.4.3 Formulation of Regional IDF Relationship for Gauged and Ungauged Sites...................................................................................4 2 Organization of Task ...................................................................................................6 2.1 Brief Overview of the Task..............................................................................6 2.2 Objectives of the Designated Tasks ...............................................................7 2.2.1 T1: Task 1 – Data Mining and Assembly............................................7 2.2.2 T2: Task 2 – Choice of Rainfall Frequency Models ...........................7 2.2.3 T3: Task 3 – Choice of Distribution to be Used in the Chosen Model (AM or PD/POT)..................................................................................7 2.2.4 T4: Task 4 – Method of Parameter Estimation...................................8 2.2.5 T5: Task 5 – Estimation of Design Storm for Low and High Return Period ..................................................................................................8 2.2.6 T6: Task 6 – Construction and Formulation of at-site IDF Curve ......9 2.2.7 T7: Task 7 – Design Storm Profile (Temporal Pattern) ......................9 2.2.8 T8: Task 8 – Areal Reduction Factor (Spatial Correction) .................9 3 Approach and Methodology ......................................................................................16 3.1 Data Mining and Assembly ...........................................................................16 3.2 Choice of Rainfall Frequency Model.............................................................16 3.3 Choice of Distribution to be Used in the Chosen Model (AM or PD/POT) ..17 3.4 Methods of Parameter Estimation Using L-Moments ..................................20 3.5 Estimation of Design Storm/Rainfall Intensity of Low and High Return Period ............................................................................................................22 3.6 Construction and Formulation of At-Site IDF Curve.....................................22 3.6.1 An Overview on the Mathematical Expression of an IDF relationship ...........................................................................................................23 3.6.2 One-Step Least Square Method of the IDF Relationships...............26 4 Assessment of the Proposed Methodology..............................................................27 4.1 Assessment Procedure.................................................................................27 4.2 Choice of Rainfall Frequency Model.............................................................28 4.3 Robustness Study and Efficiency Procedure ...............................................28 4.4 Results of the Assessment for the Choice of Rainfall Model, Parent Distribution and Parameter Estimation .........................................................31 Page | i Final Report: Reviewed and Updated the Hydrological Procedure No.1 – Estimation of Design Rainstorm in Peninsular Malaysia 5 Developing the Intensity-Duration Frequency (Idf) Relationship – Gauged Sites ...33 5.1 Choice of Mathematical Formulation for IDF Relationship ..........................33 5.2 Comparison of New Polynomial Equation and MSMA (2000) .....................33 5.3 Comparison of New Polynomial and Empirical Equation.............................35 6 Developing the Intensity-Duration Frequency (IDF) Relationship – Ungauged Sites ...................................................................................................................................37 6.1 Brief Description............................................................................................37 6.2 Mathematical Formulation for the IDF Relationship of Ungauged Sites......38 6.3 Summary of Findings ....................................................................................38 7 Developing the Region of Temporal Storm Profiles by Means of Clustering Analysis ...................................................................................................................................46 7.1 Introduction ...................................................................................................46 7.2 Data Availability and Acquisition...................................................................47 7.3 Data Screening .............................................................................................47 7.4 Formation of Region by Clustering Analysis ................................................47 7.5 Results of Clustering Analysis ......................................................................53 8 Developing the Design Storm Profiles (Temporal Storm) ........................................55 8.1 Introduction ...................................................................................................55 8.2 Derivation of Storm Profiles (Temporal Pattern) ..........................................56 8.3 Summary of Results......................................................................................57 9 Developing the Areal Reduction Factor (Spatial Correction Factor)........................69 9.1 Introduction ...................................................................................................69 9.1.1 Empirical Method ..............................................................................69 9.1.2 Analytical Method..............................................................................69 9.1.3 Analytical-Empirical Method .............................................................69 9.2 Derivation Procedure of Areal Reduction Factor (ARF) ...............................70 9.3 Summary of Results......................................................................................71 10 Special Chapter: Precipitation Factor in Design Rainstorm Impacted By Climate Change ......................................................................................................................84 10.1 Introduction: Climate Change Scenario........................................................84 10.2 Problem Statement .......................................................................................85 10.3 Precipitation Factor: Interim Recommendation ............................................87 11 APPENDIX 1 – Isopleths Map of IDF Parameter .....................................................88 11 APPENDIX 1 - Isopleths Map of IDF Parameter ......................................................89 11 APPENDIX 1 - Isopleths Map of IDF Parameter ......................................................90 11 APPENDIX 1 - Isopleths Map of IDF Parameter ......................................................91 Page | ii Final Report: Reviewed and Updated the Hydrological Procedure No.1 – Estimation of Design Rainstorm in Peninsular Malaysia LIST OF TABLES Table 5.1: Polynomial Equation Parameters of Site 3117070 ................................ 34 Table 5.2: Polynomial Equation Parameters of Site 3117070 ................................ 34 Table 5.3: Design Rainfall Intensity for Site 3117070 at DID Ampang .................. 35 Table 7.1: Summary of selected 56 automatic rainfall stations for Peninsular Malaysia ........................................................................................................................... 49 Table 7.2: Available Data of Site Characteristics ...................................................... 51 Table 7.3: Transformation of Site Characteristics ..................................................... 52 Table 7.4: Site Characteristics Combinations of Cluster Analysis ......................... 52 Table 7.5: Summary of Clustering Analysis of A5 Combination ............................. 53 Table 7.6: Summary of Cluster Centres of A5 Combination ................................... 53 Table 8.1: Derived Temporal Pattern for Region 1 – Terengganu, Kelantan and Northern Pahang ............................................................................................................ 57 Table 8.2: Derived Temporal Pattern for Region 2 -
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