Strategic Housing Market Assessment

Greater Manchester Strategic Housing Market Assessment January 2019 Note to reader Please note that some of the data tables in this report include rounded figures. This can result in some column or row totals not adding up to 100 or to the anticipated row or column ‘total’ due to the use of rounded decimal figures. This report has been prepared by the Greater Manchester Combined Authority Research Team. For any enquiries please contact: [email protected] Contents Executive summary .............................................................................................................................. 7 1 Introduction and policy background ................................................................................... 10 1.1 Background and objectives .......................................................................................... 10 1.2 Policy background ............................................................................................................ 12 1.3 Report structure ................................................................................................................ 14 2 Defining the Housing Market Area ....................................................................................... 15 Chapter summary ........................................................................................................................... 16 2.1 Introduction .......................................................................................................................... 17 2.2 Household migration ....................................................................................................... 18 2.3 Commuting patterns ...................................................................................................... 24 2.4 House prices ...................................................................................................................... 28 2.5 Summary ............................................................................................................................. 30 3 Local Housing Need .................................................................................................................. 33 Chapter summary .......................................................................................................................... 34 3.1 Introduction ........................................................................................................................ 35 3.2 Methodology ....................................................................................................................... 36 4 Characteristics of the Housing Market Area ................................................................... 42 Chapter summary .......................................................................................................................... 43 4.1 Introduction ........................................................................................................................ 44 4.2 Population and household profile .............................................................................. 44 Population and age structure ............................................................................................... 44 Population projections ............................................................................................................. 48 Household characteristics ..................................................................................................... 53 Black and Minority Ethnic (BME) communities .............................................................. 56 Young people ............................................................................................................................... 59 4.3 Socio-economic profile .................................................................................................. 61 Economic activity and employment rate .......................................................................... 61 Qualifications ............................................................................................................................... 65 Occupation ................................................................................................................................... 68 3 Industry of employment .......................................................................................................... 70 Household incomes .................................................................................................................. 74 Deprivation.................................................................................................................................... 76 Homelessness ............................................................................................................................ 78 4.4 Dwelling stock profile ...................................................................................................... 83 Profile of current dwellings .................................................................................................... 83 Overcrowding, under-occupation and concealed households ............................... 90 Council tax bands ...................................................................................................................... 93 Energy Performance Certificate ratings .......................................................................... 96 4.5 Migration characteristics .............................................................................................. 97 4.6 Need for different sizes, types and values of homes ...................................... 100 5 Market Signals ............................................................................................................................ 107 Chapter summary ........................................................................................................................ 108 5.1 Introduction .......................................................................................................................109 5.2 House prices ...................................................................................................................... 110 5.3 Land values ........................................................................................................................120 5.4 Rental trends ...................................................................................................................... 121 5.5 Households in need and affordability ..................................................................... 127 5.6 Housing development rates ...................................................................................... 145 5.7 Overcrowding, under-occupation and concealed households .................... 147 5.8 Vacancy levels ................................................................................................................. 150 6 Housing needs of particular groups ................................................................................. 154 Chapter summary ........................................................................................................................ 155 6.1 Introduction .......................................................................................................................156 6.2 Older persons housing ..................................................................................................156 6.3 Housing with care (households with specific needs) ....................................... 162 Older people ................................................................................................................................ 162 People with disabilities ........................................................................................................... 164 6.4 People with a housing and support need .............................................................. 167 6.5 Private renters .................................................................................................................. 170 6.6 People wishing to build their own homes .............................................................. 179 4 6.7 Students .............................................................................................................................. 181 6.8 Family housing .................................................................................................................186 6.9 Armed Forces .................................................................................................................. 188 6.10 Gypsies and Travellers ................................................................................................... 191 7 Affordable Housing Need Assessment ...........................................................................195 Chapter summary ......................................................................................................................... 196 7.1 Introduction ....................................................................................................................... 197 7.2 Methodology ......................................................................................................................198 7.3 Stages of the assessment ........................................................................................ 200 8 Appendices ................................................................................................................................

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