May 7, 2021 Volume 5, No

This issue brought to you by

2022 House Overview: State-by-State Redistricting Analysis MAY 7, 2021 VOLUME 5, NO. 9 By Nathan L. Gonzales and Jacob Rubashkin

Six months into the 2022 midterm elections, and we still don’t know Impact of Reapportionment the congressional lines that will define and determine the fight for the After the decennial census, there is reapportionment in order to make House majority. And considering Republicans need a net gain of just five congressional districts the same size. Some states gain or lose seats depending seats, literally every seat matters. on population trends over the previous decade. The U.S. Census Bureau’s delays in relaying critical data has thrown States Gaining Districts (6) Change an extra degree of uncertainty into a redistricting process that normally Texas +2 (from 36 seats to 38 seats) has its own set of surprises. At the end of April, the Bureau released final apportionment figures, Florida +1 (from 27 to 28) albeit four months late. Seven states lost seats (California, Illinois, Montana +1 (from 1 to 2) Michigan, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia) while Colorado +1 (from 7 to 8) six states gained seats (Texas +2, Florida, Montana, Oregon, Colorado, and North Carolina). But even states that didn’t gain or lose seats must North Carolina +1 (from 13 to 14) redraw to account for population changes over the last decade. Oregon +1 (from 5 to 6) Of the nation’s 435 districts, Republicans will draw 187, Democrats States Losing Districts (7) Change will draw 74 and commissions will draw 121, according to each state’s law. There are 47 seats in states where redistricting power is split California -1 (from 53 seats to 52 seats) between Democrats and Republicans, and six states with single, at-large Illinois -1 (from 18 to 17) districts. Michigan -1 (from 14 to 13) It will still be months, however, before states can start drawing their new maps. The Census Bureau’s delay in releasing block-level data could Ohio -1 (from 16 to 15) upend the process in states with constitutional or statutory deadlines Pennsylvania -1 (from 18 to 17) and early primaries. In Iowa, for instance, the state Supreme Court has New York -1 (from 27 to 26) already said it expects it will have to draw the maps itself. The necessary data is scheduled to be released in August or West Virginia -1 (from 3 to 2) September. Ten years ago, half of the congressional districts had been Source: U.S. Census Bureau finalized by October of 2011. This fall, states will just be getting started. Just because a party controls the redistricting process doesn’t mean they can do whatever they want. And nearly every map will be challenged in court by the aggrieved party. Last decade, maps in Florida, Pennsylvania, and North Carolina were all redrawn by courts at least CALENDAR once following the initial redistricting. At the outset, Republicans appear to have an advantage in the May 8 Virginia Republican Gubernatorial Convention redistricting process. But the 2022 elections are more than the district June 1 New Mexico’s 1st District Special Election lines. The strength of individual candidates, quality of the campaigns, June 8 Virginia Democratic Gubernatorial Primary and the overall political environment will contribute to the outcomes June 8 New Jersey Gubernatorial Primary of each race. And while the immediate goal is the majority in 2022, the Aug. 3 Ohio’s 11th & 15th District Special Election Primaries success of maps drawn this cycle can’t be measured until later in the Nov. 2 Florida’s 20th District Special Election Primary decade when the political winds have shifted a few times. Nov. 2 Virginia & New Jersey Gubernatorial Elections

InsideElections.com

CALENDAR July 30-31 Democratic Presidential Debates (Detroit, Mich.) Oct. 12 Louisiana Gubernatorial Jungle Primary Aug. 6 Mississippi Gubernatorial Primary Nov. 5 Mississippi and Kentucky Gubernatorial General Elections Aug. 27 Mississippi Gubernatorial Primary Runoff Nov. 16 Louisiana Gubernatorial General Election Sept. 10 North Carolina’s 3rd & 9th District Special General Elections Dec. 2 Illinois Candidate Filing Deadline Sept. 12-13 Democratic Presidential Debates Dec. 9 Texas Candidate Filing Deadline Alabama. Current breakdown: 7R, 1D. According to pre- California. Current breakdown: 42D, 11R (Apportionment: -1 apportionment announcement estimates, the Yellowhammer State seat). Despite growing in population by 2.2 million people over the last was at significant risk of losing a congressional seat, but Alabama will decade, California retain its 8-member delegation. No partisan changes are expected, lost a congressional just a competitive Republican primary to replace 5th District Rep. Mo district in this round Brooks, who is running for the Senate. The map will be drawn by the of apportionment. GOP-controlled state legislature, and in the wake of the Shelby County v. According to Holder Supreme Court case, Alabama will no longer be required to seek speculation on both preclearance of its map from the U.S. Department of Justice. sides of the aisle, that seat could come Alaska. Current breakdown: 1R, 0D. No apportionment changes from the Central in Alaska, which has had a single, at-large district since it became a Valley (which is state in 1959. Rep. Don Young, the 87-year-old Republican who has Courtesy of U.S. Congress primarily represented Mike Garcia represented Alaska in the House since 1973, just announced he’s running by Republicans) or again. It seems like every cycle Democrats start to get excited about Los Angeles (which is almost entirely represented by Democrats). GOP defeating Young and he always wins. Rep. Mike Garcia’s district could also be at risk. Neither Democratic nor Republican strategists know for sure what the new map will look like Arizona. Current breakdown: 5D, 4R. Arizona not gaining a because the lines will be drawn by an independent, citizen commission tenth seat was one of the biggest surprises from the Census Bureau’s and it does not prioritize incumbent protection. The commission has apportionment announcement, so the state will have nine districts for the 14 members — five Democrats, five Republicans, and four unaffiliated next decade. Much of the state’s growth is in Maricopa County, which voters, all randomly selected from a pool of 60 chosen by a panel of state is trending Democratic from Donald Trump’s 3-point win in 2016 to Joe auditors — and can only pass a map with support from at least three Biden’s 2-point win in 2020. The two parties have slightly different views Democrats, three Republicans, and two unaffiliated members. It’s tough of what the new districts will look like. Democrats believe the population to determine the final net gain or loss of seats for each party until a new growth should make the surrounding 6th (GOP Rep. Dave Schweikert) map is finalized. For now, much of the political attention in the state is or 8th (GOP Rep. Debbie Lesko) districts more competitive. Republicans focused on the potential recall of Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom. believe the 1st (Democratic Rep. Tom O’Halleran) and 2nd (Democratic Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick is retiring) could become better takeover targets. Colorado. Current breakdown: 4D, 3R (Apportionment: +1 The lines will be drawn by a five-member redistricting commission. seat). After gaining a seat after the 1980 and 2000 censuses, Colorado is Four members are selected by state legislative leaders from a pool gaining another seat following the 2020 count. But for the first time, an assembled by the state’s commission on appellate court appointments, independent commission will draw the lines. The 12-member body (four and those four then select an independent chairperson out of a separate Democrats, four Republicans, four unaffiliated) was randomly selected pool assembled by the appointments panel. Republicans are confident from a winnowed group of qualified applicants, with some input from the process won’t be as partisan compared to 10 years ago, and the state legislative leaders. Maps will originate from the commission’s commission has already frustrated Democrats by hiring staff with GOP nonpartisan staff; the commission can provide direction with a vote of ties. In a neutral political environment, a ton of partisan turnover isn’t eight members, including two unaffiliated members. If the commission likely, but there’s uncertainty with the commission. cannot come to an agreement on a plan (which takes eight votes as well), then a plan designated the “third” plan produced by the staff is sent to Arkansas. Current breakdown: 4R, 0D. No major changes the state Supreme Court for review, and then implemented. With the expected in the Razorback State. Arkansas will retain its four districts new process there is more uncertainty about what the map will look like and Republicans are likely to hold them all. In 2020, none of the House and how many districts will be competitive. Considering just one of the races were closer than 10 points. The state legislature will draw the new eight congressional races in 2020 was decided by less than 10 points, map — this is the first post-census year since Reconstruction in which GOP and Democratic strategists are both hoping that the new seat is Republicans control the process. Continued on page 3

Ryan Matsumoto @InsideElections Contributing Analyst [email protected] facebook.com/InsideElections

Bradley Wascher Will Taylor Contributing Analyst Production Artist [email protected] [email protected] Nathan L. Gonzales Jacob Rubashkin Editor & Publisher Reporter & Analyst Robert Yoon Stuart Rothenberg [email protected] [email protected] Contributing Reporter & Analyst Senior Editor @nathanlgonzales @jacobrubashkin [email protected] [email protected]

2 May 7, 2021 NONPARTISAN ANALYSIS & RESEARCH Continued from page 2 perspective. GOP cartographers are likely to make either the 6th competitive. Part of the Inside Elections team is doing data analysis work (represented by Democrat Lucy McBath) or the 7th (Carolyn Bourdeaux) for a bipartisan group called Reasonable Districts Colorado to develop district much more Democratic but the other much more Republican, a metric to measure partisan performance. The group plans to make which would likely give Democrats a net loss of at least one seat in recommendations to the commission via the public process. Georgia. GOP Army veteran Harold Earls and 2020 7th District GOP Nominee Rich McCormick are likely to run in the better opportunity. Connecticut. Current breakdown: 5D, 0R. No significant Republicans could try and get more aggressive elsewhere, but Democrats changes are expected in the Nutmeg State. Democrats are likely to are confident that the population growth in the Atlanta suburbs will maintain control of all five seats. The process may take a while, though. make some seats that initially look Republican now, more vulnerable The state legislature gets the first shot at drawing the map, but can only later in the decade. pass a plan with a two-thirds majority. Democrats have that in the state Continued on page 4 Senate, but are four votes short in the state House. If Republicans stick together and block a plan, responsibility would fall to a nine-member commission (four Democrats and four Republicans chosen by legislative State-by-state control of redistricting leaders, and a ninth member chosen by the other eight). In 2000 and Every state sets its own processes for redistricting. Some empower a commission, 2010, the legislature failed to produce a map; in 2010, the commission rather than the state legislature itself, to draw the lines. Others have more complex systems. The following is a breakdown of which party -- if either -- controls the deadlocked too, forcing the state Supreme Court to draw the new district process in every state. It takes into account the state’s unique laws, as well as lines. party control of the state legislature and the party of the governor.

Delaware. Current breakdown: 1D, 0R. Democratic Rep. Lisa STATE 2021 CONTROL STATE 2021 CONTROL Blunt Rochester can probably have the state’s lone seat for as long as she Alabama Republican Montana Commission wants it. And she’s got outsized influence, since she represents Biden’s home state. Alaska Single District Nebraska Republican Arizona Commission Nevada Democratic Florida. Current breakdown: 16R, 11D (Apportionment +1 seat). Arkansas Republican New Hampshire Republican Florida is one of four key states to watch during redistricting. While California Commission New Jersey Commission pre-announcement Colorado Commission New Mexico Democratic estimates showed Connecticut Democratic/ New York Democratic/ the Sunshine State Commission Commission gaining two seats, Delaware Single District North Carolina Republican Republicans will only Florida Republican North Dakota Single District have one additional seat to draw. Much of Georgia Republican Ohio Republican/ Commission Florida’s population Hawaii Commission growth is from the I-4 Idaho Commission Oklahoma Republican corridor including the Illinois Democratic Oregon Split Orlando and Tampa- Roll Call Williams/CQ Tom Pennsylvania Split Charlie Crist Indiana Republican St. Petersburg areas. Iowa Republican/ Rhode Island Democratic But that’s not necessarily where the new seat will be located. Republicans Commission South Carolina Republican will likely try to shore up two South Florida districts represented by Kansas Republican South Dakota Single District first term Reps. Maria Elvira Salazar and Carlos Gimenez, and make Democratic Reps. Stephanie Murphy’s and Charlie Crist’s districts Kentucky Republican Tennessee Republican more Republican in the central part of the state. Murphy is exploring Louisiana Split Texas Republican a Senate bid, and she’ll likely have to make a decision on whether to Maine Split Utah Republican run statewide before knowing what Republicans will do to her seat. Maryland Democratic Vermont Single District Crist isn’t waiting to find out what happens to his district; he launched Massachusetts Democratic Virginia Commission his campaign for governor this week. Another Democratic member Michigan Commission Washington Commission who might leave the House for higher office, Val Demings, released a Minnesota Split West Virginia Republican campaign-style bio video. Overall, Republicans look poised to try and gain a seat or two. If they are more aggressive and try for more, they will Mississippi Republican Wisconsin Split be met in court by Democrats. Missouri Republican Wyoming Single District

Republican- GOP controls the map-making process Georgia. Current breakdown: 8R, 6D. Along with Florida, Texas, and North Carolina, Georgia is one of the big four states to watch in Democratic- Democrats control the map-making process redistricting. After Biden’s victory over Trump in 2020, Democrats Split- Map-making process is divided between the parties believe the state’s House delegation should be split 7-7. But Republicans Commission- An independent or bipartisan commission control the map-drawing process in Georgia and don’t have the same Single District- No redistricting necessary with one, at-large district

INSIDEELECTIONS.COM May 7, 2021 3 Continued from page 3 LSA, which keeps the seats relatively normal looking when it comes to GOP Rep. Jody Hice is not running for re-election in order to districts. The 3rd District (represented by Democratic Rep. Cindy Axne) challenge Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger, who has drawn needs to shed some voters, which could make her more vulnerable after criticism from Trump for certifying Biden’s victory over the former already being a top GOP target. But if Story County (including Ames) is president in 2020. Hice’s 10th District voted for Trump with 60 percent added from the 4th District, Axne shouldn’t have much trouble winning but could get redrawn. re-election. It looks like minimal shifts in Iowa right now.

Hawaii. Current breakdown: 2D, 0R. No major changes expected Kansas. Current breakdown: 3R, 1D. The state legislature draws in the Aloha State. Hawaii uses a nine-member commission to draw its Kansas’ congressional map, which is subject to gubernatorial veto. congressional map. Eight of the members are selected by the four major- Republicans hold party legislative leaders; those eight then select a ninth. Hawaii law veto-proof majorities provides that “where possible, district lines shall follow permanent and in both chambers, easily recognized features such as streets, streams, and clear geographical though in the state features.” But district borders are just on paper in Hawaii, where Senate the party congressional candidates tend to run wherever the best opportunity is at can only afford two the time. defections and is not always able to Idaho. Current breakdown: 2R, 0D. Idaho was the second-fastest override Democratic growing state over the past decade — its population increased by 17 Gov. Laura Kelly’s percent from 2010 to 2020. The state has used a commission to draw its Akin/CQ Roll Call Stephanie vetoes on other issues. Sharice Davids congressional map beginning after the 2000 Census. The five-member In 2010, the GOP- body comprises four members selected by the leaders of the state dominated legislature was unable to draw new maps, and a federal court legislature, and one member selected jointly by the chairpersons of the drew the lines instead. state Republican and Democratic parties. No partisan change in seats is Republicans are focused on defeating Democratic Rep. Sharice likely in a state where Biden barely topped 33 percent. Davids, who defeated GOP Rep. Kevin Yoder in the 3rd District in 2018 and won re-election 54-44 percent in 2020. Biden won the district Illinois. Current breakdown: 13D, 5R (Apportionment: -1 by a similar margin, so Republicans will likely change the boundaries seat). For the fifth consecutive decade, Illinois lost a House seat in to make it easier. And 2020 GOP nominee Amanda Adkins is already apportionment. Up until 1963, Illinois had 25 House seats, and it’s consolidating support for a rematch. Davids has proven to be a now going down to 17 for the next decade. By virtue of their hold formidable incumbent and candidate, but we’ll see how challenging her on the legislature and governor’s mansion, Democrats control the next race will be because of the new district lines. map making process in the Land of Lincoln and appear to have their eye on Downstate, represented by GOP Reps. Mike Bost, Rodney Kentucky. Current breakdown: 5R, 1D. Kentucky’s state Davis, Mary Miller, and Darin LaHood. Republicans are interested legislature is responsible for drawing the new congressional map. This to see what Democrats do with the 17th District, where GOPers gave is the first redistricting cycle since the Civil War that Democrats have not Cheri Bustos a scare in her 2020 re-election race — the former DCCC controlled at least one of the legislature’s two houses, and although Gov. chairwoman unexpectedly announced her retirement last week. This is Andy Beshear is a Democrat, state law requires just a simple majority to a good example of how projecting the partisan net gain or loss is more override his veto. With that power, Republicans could target Rep. John complicated than just looking at the partisanship of the state and a loss Yarmuth, the lone Democrat in the delegation, but we’ll see if they are of a seat. Democrats control the process in Illinois, and Republicans are that aggressive. most likely to lose a seat. Louisiana. Current breakdown: 5R, 1D. Louisiana’s congressional Indiana. Current breakdown: 7R, 2D. No major changes expected map is drawn by the GOP-controlled state legislature and subject to in the Hoosier State, where Republicans control the redistricting process. Democratic Gov. John Bel Edwards’ veto. That could be a stumbling GOP cartographers could maintain the status quo or target the 1st block for Republicans, who are two votes short of a veto-proof majority District in Northwest Indiana. Democratic Rep. Frank Mvran represents in the state House. The partisanship of the delegation is likely to remain the seat, which Biden won 54-45 percent in 2020. That’s probably the only the same. In Democrats’ dream scenario, a disagreement between the significant change that could happen. governor and the legislature results in a three-judge panel drawing a map with a second majority-minority district that includes Black voters in Baton Iowa. Current breakdown: 3R, 1D. Since 1980, Iowa’s congressional Rouge and Shreveport. But that’s not the most likely scenario right now. maps have been drawn by an independent commission, with substantial input from the nonpartisan Legislative Services Agency, a statutory Maine. Current breakdown: 2D, 0R. Not much is likely to change body that serves all members of the legislature. The commission has two in the Pine Tree State. The Democratic-leaning 1st District needs to shed opportunities to present a map to the state legislature for an up-or-down about 30,000 people (a town or two). But the 2nd District (represented by vote. If the legislature rejects both, the commission presents a third map Democrat Jared Golden) will likely remain a top GOP takeover target. that the GOP-controlled legislature can modify as it sees fit, but that has The districts are drawn by the state legislature and must pass with a two- never happened. The legislature has always approved a map from the Continued on page 5

4 May 7, 2021 NONPARTISAN ANALYSIS & RESEARCH Continued from page 4 and Republicans, draws the maps (which are subject to veto by the thirds majority; while Democrats control both houses, they do not have Democratic governor). But the lines seem likely to end up being decided two-thirds majorities in either. If the legislature fails to draw a new map, by the state supreme court, as they were in 2011 and 2001. A map with it falls to the state’s Supreme Court — where a majority of justices are minimal changes leaves the 2nd District (represented by DFL Rep. Angie Democratic appointees — to do so. Craig) as competitive after Biden’s 6-point victory over Trump in 2020. The other seats likely need a significant shift in the new lines or the Maryland. Current breakdown: 7D, 1R. Republican Gov. Larry political environment to be truly competitive. Hogan has empaneled a 9-member commission to help him draw a congressional map Mississippi. Current breakdown: 3R, 1D. The Mississippi state that he will then legislature draws the state’s congressional map, though it has been propose to the state unable to agree on a map during the last two redistricting cycles; in both legislature. The instances a federal court drew the map instead. In 2012, after the last commission is entirely redistricting cycle, Republicans took control of both Houses of the state advisory, and the legislature for the first time since Reconstruction. The status quo for the Democrat-dominated delegation is the most likely scenario. state legislature has no obligation to Missouri. Current breakdown: 6R, 2D. The Republican- acknowledge Hogan’s controlled state legislature has the responsibility to draw Missouri’s proposal. Armed Courtesy Heather Mizeur for Congress new congressional map. In 2012, the legislature had to override Heather Mizeur with veto-proof Democratic Gov. Jay Nixon’s veto of their proposed map. This year, majorities (and no compunctions about overriding the governor), the Republicans will control every step of the process for the first time since state legislature can draw its own maps. After the 2010 redistricting, 1920. They’ll likely try to shore up the 2nd District, where GOP Rep. opponents of the new maps forced a referendum on the lines; the maps Ann Wagner won a competitive race by 6 points in 2020, but has been were approved by voters, 64-36 percent, in 2012. The biggest question trending Democratic. is whether Democrats dramatically redraw the 1st District to defeat Rep. Andy Harris, the only Republican in the delegation. Former state Montana. Current breakdown: 1R, 0D (Apportionment: +1 seat). delegate/2014 gubernatorial candidate Heather Mizeur is already Montana has used a five-member redistricting commission since 1972, running against him. Either the status quo or Republicans minus one though this is the seat could happen here. first cycle since 1982 that the state has Massachusetts. Current breakdown: 9D, 0R. Massachusetts to be divided into is the largest state with a single-party congressional delegation. The two districts. Four Democrat-controlled state House and Senate will draw the new commissioners are congressional map. It will be subject to a veto by GOP Gov. Charlie appointed by each Baker, but Democrats have wide veto-proof majorities in both chambers. party’s legislative No partisan changes are likely here. leaders; those four pick a fifth member. This Current breakdown: 7D, 7R (Apportionment: -1 seat). Roll Call Williams/CQ Tom cycle, the four were Michigan. Ryan Zinke The Wolverine State is losing a district from apportionment and a new unable to agree on a redistricting commission adds a level of uncertainty to the process — fifth member, so the state Supreme Court selected tribal attorney Maylinn especially because the 13 commissioners were randomly picked from a Smith as the commission’s presiding officer. Republicans are skeptical large pool of applicants and must come to a bipartisan decision on the of the pick and the court. Montana gained a seat during apportionment, new map. Democrats are just hoping the new lines undo at least some of harkening back to most of the 1900s when Montana had two seats. If what Republicans did 10 years ago. The delegation is split evenly now. history is a guide, there will be an eastern and western district split by the So the biggest questions are how many newly-drawn seats are solid, how Continental Divide. That would likely create a competitive district in the many will be competitive, and which incumbents might be pitted against west and a Republican district in the east. Former GOP Rep. Ryan Zinke, each other? Republicans wouldn’t mind seeing Democratic Reps. Haley who left Congress to become Trump’s secretary of the interior, filed with Stevens and Elissa Slotkin have to run against each other. Democrats the FEC to run again. want to see Kent County put back together, which could make the 3rd District (represented by GOP Rep. Peter Meijer) more competitive. With Nebraska. Current breakdown: 3R, 0D. Nebraska’s unicameral a strange, new process, Michigan could be one of the key states to watch legislature, which has responsibility for drawing the new map, is this cycle. technically nonpartisan. But in practice Republicans hold a 32-17 seat majority and will control the redistricting process. Splitting Omaha could Minnesota. Current breakdown: 4D, 4R. If 89 more people make three solidly GOP seats. But legislators haven’t been willing to do had been counted in New York, Minnesota would have lost a seat, that in the past. That means the 2nd District (represented by GOP Rep. but instead, the Gopher State will maintain its 8-member delegation. Don Bacon) will continue to be competitive. The state legislature, where control is split between Democrats Continued on page 6

INSIDEELECTIONS.COM May 7, 2021 5 Continued from page 5 dissolve his Southern Tier district into neighboring seats, most of which are represented by Republicans. If New York had lost two seats, then a Nevada. Current breakdown: 3D, 1R. The Silver State maintains Downstate Democrat its four seats, with minimal changes likely. Democrats hold the might have been in legislature and the governor’s mansion, giving the party full control jeopardy. GOP Rep. over the redistricting process for the first time since the 1990s. The Lee Zeldin is leaving 2nd District (represented by GOP Rep. Mark Amodei) needs to gain his 1st District to run some population. That will likely come from the 4th District, and shore for governor. up Democratic Rep. Steven Horsford’s re-election chances. The 3rd New York (Democrat Susie Lee) will likely remain competitive while the 1st will has adopted an continue to be solidly Democratic. independent commission system Current breakdown: 2D, 0R. No major Roll Call Williams/CQ Tom to draw its maps, but New Hampshire. Lee Zeldin changes are expected in the Granite State, where Republicans have full final authority still control over the redistricting process after taking back both houses of the rests with the state legislature. The commission has two opportunities to state legislature in 2020 (they already controlled the governor’s mansion). present a map with bipartisan support to the legislature, which can only The 2nd District (represented by Democrat Ann McLane Kuster) will pass if it has two-thirds support in each chamber. If the legislature does likely remain Democratic while the 1st District (represented by Democrat not approve either proposal, then mapmaking authority reverts back Chris Pappas) will be competitive. to the legislature itself. It is unclear if a map drawn by the legislature needs a similar two-thirds majority to pass, or merely a simple majority. New Jersey. Current breakdown: 10D, 2R. New Jersey’s But Democrats currently hold two-thirds majorities in both chambers, congressional districts are drawn by a bipartisan commission with 13 meaning if they stick together they can likely implement their own map. members, twelve of whom are appointed by party leaders and one of Voters will also have the chance to alter this process via constitutional whom is selected by the other 12. If the commission cannot agree to a amendment at the ballot box this November. It looks like Republicans map by majority vote by Jan. 18, 2022, then it will present two plans to will be minus at least one seat in New York. the state Supreme Court (which will likely have a narrow Democratic majority) to decide between the two. In 2010, after the state lost a seat North Carolina. Current breakdown: 8R, 5D (Apportionment: in reapportionment, the commission ultimately chose a map more +1 seat). The Tar Heel State gained a seat and Republicans control favorable to Republicans, drawing two Democratic incumbents into the the process in one of the four most important states for redistricting. same district. The delegation is less likely to face that decision this time Democrats believe the new seat should include the Research Triangle- since the state retained all of its districts. at the nexus of North Carolina State Univ., Duke Univ., and the Univ. of North Carolina at Chapel Hill - because of population growth. But New Mexico. Current breakdown: 2D, 1R. Since the Land of that’s not necessarily how it works out. Republicans control the state Enchantment didn’t gain or lose a seat during reapportionment, all eyes legislature, and even though Gov. Roy Cooper is a Democrat, he has are on the 2nd District, no say in the redistricting process. A lot depends on how aggressive where Republican GOP state legislators want to be. They could draw a map with eight Yvette Herrell Republican seats, four Democratic seats and two competitive seats, or defeated a Democratic one with nine GOP seats, four Democratic seats, and one competitive incumbent in 2020. seat. Republicans look likely to gain at least one seat from North Trump defeated Biden Carolina. One specific target is first-term Rep. Deborah Ross, who ended 55-43 percent there last up on the NRCC’s initial list of takeover seats. North Carolina has a cycle, so Democrats history of tumultuous redistricting, having used three different maps are hoping the seat over the past decade. The first two were struck down as unconstitutional is more competitive gerrymanders by a federal court (the first map) and the state Supreme under the new Courtesy of U.S. Congress Court (the second map). The state Supreme Court has a narrow Yvette Herrell lines. Republicans Democratic majority. believe the Biden Administration’s energy policy will be a liability for Democratic candidates. The state recently passed a law creating an North Dakota. Current breakdown: 1R, 0D. North Dakota independent advisory commission that will propose three plans to the was the fourth-fastest growing state over the last decade; its population Democrat-controlled legislature for consideration, but the legislature can increased 15.4 percent. But that wasn’t enough to snag it another House change or ignore those maps as they see fit. seat, so it will remain a single at-large district until at least 2032. GOP Rep. Kelly Armstrong can have another term if he wants it. New York. Current breakdown: 19D, 8R (Apportionment: -1 seat). According to pre-announcement estimates, New York was in Ohio. Current breakdown: 12R, 3D (Apportionment: -1 seat). danger of losing two seats. Instead, the Empire State lost one seat and Ohio is losing a seat from reapportionment. The GOP-controlled state came within 89 people of not losing any seats at all. GOP Rep. Tom legislature will have the first opportunity to draw the new map, but Reed is not seeking re-election, so it might make the most sense to Continued on page 7

6 May 7, 2021 NONPARTISAN ANALYSIS & RESEARCH Continued from page 6 as well as Conor Lamb’s 17th District in western Pennsylvania to get in order to pass that map will need at least half of each chamber’s more Republican and more competitive. Lamb is actively considering a Democratic caucus to agree to it. If the legislature is unable to draw statewide run for Senate. Democrats are looking for a map with minimal a map that meets that threshold, responsibility shifts to a backup changes considering it was just redrawn. Both sides expect GOP Rep. commission with seven members, five of whom are Republicans and two Brian Fitzpatrick (1st) to remain in a competitive district. He won re- of whom are Democrats. But the commission can only approve a map election by 13 points in 2020 even though Biden carried the seat by if it has support of both Democrats. If the commission fails to produce almost 6 points. a map, responsibility shifts back to the state legislature, which can then pass a map by a simple majority. But there’s a catch: any map produced Rhode Island. Current breakdown: 2D, 0R. Pre-apportionment in that manner is only good for four years, after which the process estimates had the Ocean State losing one of its two seats, so it was a repeats itself. surprise when the state escaped unscathed. That means Democratic The most likely scenario is that the map drawn this time will be in Reps. David Cicilline and Jim Langevin won’t have to run against each place for four years instead of the customary decade. With Democratic other for an at-large seat. The (overwhelmingly Democratic) legislature Rep. Tim Ryan running for the Senate, his northeastern Ohio seat could controls the mapmaking process. be a natural place to cut. Democrats continue to want to be competitive in Hamilton County (Cincinnati) and the Akron area, but haven’t been South Carolina. Current breakdown: 6R, 1D. South Carolina’s able to figure it out under the current lines. Democrats could see a net maps are drawn by the state legislature (controlled by Republicans) and loss of one seat here. subject to a gubernatorial veto (the governor is a Republican as well). This is the first time since the passage of the Voting Rights Act that South Oklahoma. Current breakdown: 5R, 0D. The Oklahoma state Carolina’s maps will not have to be precleared by the U.S. Department legislature, which is controlled by overwhelming GOP majorities, will of Justice, following the decision in Shelby County v. Holder (2013). Some redraw the state’s five congressional districts. No partisan changes are districts will need to change because of population growth, but no major expected in the delegation, but Republicans might look to shore up Rep. partisan changes in the delegation are expected. Stephanie Bice in a 5th District that voted for Trump by just 5 points in 2020. South Dakota. Current breakdown: 1R, 0D. Though it grew Oregon. Current breakdown: 4D, 1R (Apportionment: +1 seat). In faster than the nation as a whole, South Dakota remained at one exchange for a promise to stop blocking legislation, Democrats gave up congressional seat following reapportionment. The Mount Rushmore some power over the Continued on page 8 redistricting process, giving Republicans equal representation on the legislative 2022 Senate Ratings commission in charge BATTLEGROUND of redrawing the maps. Democratic-Held (4) Republican-Held (4) That could be a sign Cortez Masto (D-Nev.) NC Open (Burr, R) that local Democrats Hassan (D-N.H.) PA Open (Toomey, R) weren’t that interested Kelly (D-Ariz.) Johnson (R-Wisc.) in making sure Roll Call Williams/CQ Tom Warnock (D-Ga.) Rubio (R-Fl.) Peter DeFazio Oregon’s new seat is a Democratic one. Both parties seem to be satisfied with the idea of the new Solid Democratic (10) Solid Republican (16) seat being competitive. But it remains to be seen where exactly that will Bennet (D-Colo.) AL Open (Shelby, R) be. This week, 2020 GOP nominee Alek Skarlatos announced his second Blumenthal (D-Conn.) MO Open (Blunt, R) campaign in the 4th District against Democratic Rep. Peter DeFazio. Duckworth (D-Ill.) OH Open (Portman, R) Last cycle, the congressman won by 5 points and Biden won the district Leahy (D-Vt.) Boozman (R-Ark.) by 4 points. But, as with the new seat, it’s very unclear what the new Murray (D-Wash.) Crapo (R-Idaho) boundaries (and partisanship) of the district will look like. Padilla (D-Calif.) Grassley (R-Iowa) Schatz (D-Hawaii) Hoeven (R-N.D.) Pennsylvania. Current breakdown: 9D, 9R (Apportionment: Schumer (D-N.Y.) Kennedy (R-La.) -1 seat). Pennsylvania’s new map will be drawn by the state legislature, Van Hollen (D-Md.) Lankford (R-Okla.) where both houses are controlled by the GOP. But the map is also Wyden (D-Ore.) Lee (R-Utah) subject to a veto from Gov. Tom Wolf, a Democrat, and the Republicans Moran (R-Kan.) don’t have veto-proof majorities. We’re just a few years removed from Murkowski (R-Alaska) the state Supreme Court tossing out the state’s congressional map as Paul (R-Ky.) an unconstitutional gerrymander and the justices redrawing the map Scott (R-S.C.) themselves. Democrats currently hold a 5-2 majority on the court. Thune (R-S.D.) Republicans are expecting the eastern Pennsylvania districts represented Young (R-Ind.) by Democrats Matt Cartwright (8th District) and Susan Wild (7th),

INSIDEELECTIONS.COM May 7, 2021 7

GOP DEM 115th Congress 51 49 Not up this cycle 42 23 Currently Solid 4 18 Competitive 5 8 Continued from page 7 Virginia Beach-based 2nd District will remain competitive. It’s currently State hasn’t had more than one district since the 1980 census. GOP Rep. represented by Democrat Elaine Luria and Republicans are excited about Dusty Johnson is not in danger of losing re-election. state Sen. Jen Kiggans running against her.

Tennessee. Current breakdown: 7R, 2D. Even though Washington. Current breakdown: 7D, 3R. The Evergreen State Republicans control the process in the Volunteer State, the partisanship maintains its 10 seats for another decade. The 8th District, represented of the delegation is unlikely to change. Democratic Rep. Steve Cohen by Democrat Kim represents Memphis and territory to the north in the 9th District that Schrier, could get voted for Biden with 79 percent. Democratic Rep. Jim Cooper represents more Democratic Nashville in a 5th District seat that voted for Biden with 60 percent. by shedding some Republicans would have to divide Davidson County (Nashville) four GOP voters in the ways to get another Republican seat, and that is unlikely to happen. western portion of the seat. That could Texas. Current breakdown: 23R, 13D (Apportionment: +2 seats). leave the 3rd District, The state legislature draws congressional maps in Texas. That’s why represented by GOP Democrats tried so hard to win back the Texas state House in 2020. Rep. Jaime Herrera But that effort went nowhere, meaning that Republicans will control Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call Beutler, as the lone Jaime Herrera Beutler the entire redistricting process. Even though much of the population competitive seat in growth has been in Democratic-leaning suburbs, the GOP will try to the state in fairly neutral political environments. Washington delegates draw themselves at least two more districts. A key question though redistricting authority to an independent commission with four is whether they do it at the expense of giving Democratic Reps. Colin members, with each state legislative leader choosing one member. Three Allred and Lizzie Fletcher more Democratic voters and making them commissioners must agree on a map to send it to the legislature, which more safe for re-election. Another key area to watch is the border and can make minor amendments to the plan with a two-thirds majority. But Rio Grande Valley, where Trump did better than expected. Republicans the legislature cannot reject the map outright — it becomes law 30 days believe 2020 was a continuation of a trend of Hispanic voters moving in after it is submitted by the commission, with or without amendments. If their direction, but future elections will help determine whether Trump the commission deadlocks and produces no map by Nov. 15, 2021, the was the one holding the unique coalition together. Overall, Republicans state Supreme Court will draw the districts. could try to gain up to a handful of seats in 2022, but that could leave them vulnerable to sizable losses later in the decade if the political West Virginia. Current breakdown: 3R, 0D (Apportionment: -1 environment were to shift against them (as nearly happened in 2018, seat). West Virginia was one of just three states to lose population over the when Democrats flipped two GOP-drawn seats and came with 5 points last decade — the state is 3.7 percent smaller than it was in 2010. That drop of winning six others). sealed the demise of its third congressional district; the Mountain State will have just two representatives in the House for the first time in its history, Utah. Current breakdown: 4R, 0D. In 2018, Utah voters created an down from a high of six in the 1950s. This cycle is the first time in 100 years independent, 7-member redistricting commission (members chosen by in which Republicans hold both houses of the legislature and the governor’s party leadership and the governor) to draw new congressional lines that mansion and control the entire process. West Virginia is unique in that its would then be subject to an up-or-down vote by the state legislature. But congressional districts must be made up of whole counties. The districts last year, the state legislature stepped in to diminish the commission’s role must also be compact. With three Republican incumbents and just two seats, to an advisory capacity. Now, the GOP-dominated state legislature is free to an incumbent vs. incumbent GOP primary could be in the future. modify or ignore the commission’s maps as they see fit, with no requirement to provide an explanation as to its choices. Democrats are hoping Salt Wisconsin. Current breakdown: 5R, 3D. Party strategists don’t Lake City is united to form a competitive seat. But it’s hard to see how the expect a lot of changes in Wisconsin. The GOP-controlled legislature draws partisanship of the delegation changes under these circumstances. the districts, but the plan is subject to a veto from Democratic Gov. Tony Evers, and the GOP doesn’t have veto-proof majorities. Evers has also set Vermont. Current breakdown: 1D, 0R. As it has since the 1930 up a purely advisory commission to draw nonpartisan maps, which the Census, Vermont will have one congressional district for the next legislature is free to ignore. Republicans still plan to target the 3rd District, decade. Democratic Rep. Peter Welch is likely to have the seat for as represented by Democrat Ron Kind, while Democrats are hoping the seat long as he wants it. gets a little better for them. But if GOP Rep. Scott Fitzgerald is willing to give up some Republican voters (unlike his predecessor, Rep. Jim Virginia. Current breakdown: 7D, 4R. A 16-member commission Sensenbrenner) that could give Republicans more chances elsewhere. (split evenly between Democrats and Republicans, and between state legislators and citizens selected by a panel of retired judges) will redraw Wyoming. Current breakdown: 1R, 0D. The least populous state the maps, throwing a level of uncertainty into the process. There’s in the Union will remain with one congressional district for the next bipartisan agreement that Charlottesville should be moved from the decade. Wyoming grew just 1.7 percent since 2010, one of the slowest 5th District to the 7th District. That would help improve the re-election rates of any state. Wyoming could still see some fireworks as Trump prospects for both GOP Rep. Bob Good and Democratic Rep. Abigail continues to direct his anger at GOP Rep. Liz Cheney. But that fight Spanberger. Strategists on both sides of the aisle also agree that the would be in the GOP primary.

8 May 7, 2021 NONPARTISAN ANALYSIS & RESEARCH Report Shorts

California Governor Recall Commissioner Nikki Fried is all-but-running already, and Orlando-area The race to recall Gov. Gavin Newsom is (nearly) official, after Rep. Val Demings has said she’s considering a bid too. At the end of organizers turned in significantly more validated signatures than April, former Democratic Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell tweeted, “It is necessary to put the Democrat on the ballot this fall. While there are time Florida elects a WOMAN for governor.” still some procedural Waiting for the eventual victor is Gov. Ron DeSantis, who is enjoying hoops left to jump a moment in the national spotlight for his love-it-or-hate-it handling through, the recall of Covid-19. The governor is increasingly mentioned as a top GOP — just the second in contender for president in 2024 — but first he has to win re-election California history — in Florida, a notoriously close state where the last three gubernatorial is almost certainly contests have been decided by an average of 0.86 percent. happening. So far, it’s just Florida’s 20th District Special Republicans who have Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis has finally set a date for the special thrown their hats in election to replace the late Democratic Rep. Alcee Hastings in this Broward the ring as Newsom Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call County/Palm Beach County district: January 11, 2022. That means the Gavin Newsom alternatives. Former district will be left vacant for at least 280 days after Hastings’ death, more San Diego Mayor Kevin Faulconer is running, as is former Sacramento- than twice the average gap since 1971, according to data from Bloomberg’s area Rep. Doug Ose. The party’s gubernatorial nominee in 2018, Continued on page 10 businessman John Cox, is in as well; he has taken to calling himself “the Beast” and has started touring the state with a 1,000-pound bear. (It looks like a combination of a publicity stunt and a nod to the grizzly bear that 2022 Governor Ratings adorns the state’s flag.) Battleground But the most high-profile entrant by far is reality TV star and former Olympian Caitlyn Jenner, who reportedly launched her bid with the Democratic-held (6) Republican-held (5) help of Trump advisers such as Brad Parscale, and whose campaign has Kelly (D-Kan.) AZ Open (Ducey, R) already attracted more media attention than any other. Mills (D-Maine) DeSantis (R-Fl.) It remains to be seen just how imperiled Newsom really is. Most Whitmer (D-Mich.) Kemp (R-Ga.) public polling shows him relatively popular, and the recall underwater. Sisolak (D-Nev.) MD Open (Hogan, R) But the state GOP just released a survey from pollster John McLaughlin which showed the recall tied at 45 percent (the poll did not include PA Open (Wolf, D) Sununu (R-N.H.) Newsom’s approval, which may mean it was a good result for the Evers (D-Wisc.) governor that Republicans did not want to publicize). Remember the recall is a two-question process. First, voters will decide Solid Democratic (10) Solid Republican (15) whether to recall Newsom or not. Then they’ll select a replacement on the Newsom (D-Calif.) Ivey (R-Ala.) second question. If a majority votes to recall Newsom, then whichever Polis (D-Colo.) Dunleavy (R-Alaska) candidate wins a plurality on the second question gets to be governor. Democrats have yet to put forward a credible candidate in case Newsom Lamont (D-Conn.) AR Open (Hutchinson, R) is indeed recalled. Newsom isn’t on the verge of defeat, but the uncertainty HI Open (Ige, D) Little (R-Idaho) and uniqueness of the recall election warrants a rating change from Solid Pritzker (D-Ill.) Reynolds (R-Iowa) Democratic to Likely Democratic. Walz (D-Minn.) Baker (R-Mass.) Lujan Grisham (D-N.M.) NE Open (Ricketts, R) Florida Governor Cuomo (D-N.Y.) Noem (R-S.D.) Democratic Rep. Charlie Crist formally announced his bid for governor this week at a rally in St. Petersburg. This will be the third OR Open (Brown, D) DeWine (R-Ohio) time Crist runs for the Sunshine State’s top office. The first (and only McKee (D-R.I.) Stitt (R-Okla.) successful) outing was in 2006 as a Republican, when Crist defeated McMaster (R-S.C.) Rep. Jim Davis 52-47 percent. The second was as a Democrat, in 2014, 2021 RACES Lee (R-Tenn.) when Crist narrowly lost to Republican Gov. Rick Scott, 48-47 percent. Abbott (R-Texas) Crist also ran as an independent for the U.S. Senate in 2010, losing to Likely Democratic Republican Marco Rubio 49-30 percent, and has served in the U.S. House CA Recall (Newsom, D) Scott (R-Vt.) as a Democrat. He knocked off Rep. David Jolly in one of Democrats’ few VA Open (Northam, D) Gordon (R-Wyo.) 2016 House pickups. Solid Democratic Last time Crist ran for governor, in 2014, he had the Democratic field Murphy (D-N.J.) to himself. This time, he probably won’t be so lucky. State Agriculture

INSIDEELECTIONS.COM May 7, 2021 9

INSIDEELECTIONS.COM February 19, 2021 1 Continued from page 9 would make a bid for the seat, but not both of them. Greg Giroux. Florida Democrats are unhappy with how long it took The GOP field has continued to grow as well, with Rep. Ted Budd DeSantis to set a date, and how long the seat will be open until. and former Gov. Pat McCrory throwing their hats in the ring. They join The district is solidly Democratic — it voted for Joe Biden by 55 former Rep. Mark Walker as the only announced candidates. Lt. Gov. points, 77-22 percent — and has attracted a large field of Democrats Mark Robinson announced he would not run. Budd has the backing of ahead of the all-important Nov. 2, 2021 primary. The latest notable the anti-tax Club for Growth, which had previously encouraged Walker entry is state Rep. Omari Hardy, a 31-year-old progressive lawmaker to run in 2020, and McCrory has the advantage of having run three with a large online following (168,000 followers on Twitter, 108,000 on statewide campaigns before (plus the baggage of having lost the last one, Instagram) who supports the Green New Deal and Medicare for All. the 2016 gubernatorial race, even as Donald Trump was winning the state). All eyes remain on Lara Trump, the former president’s daughter- Montana House in-law, who says she may run and would shake up the field. After losing its second House seat following the 1990 census, Montana will regain its second congressional seat as a result of reapportionment North Carolina’s 5th District after the 2020 census. Montana uses an independent redistricting A 25-year-old former NC State/Yale football player is hoping to be the commission to draw its maps, and while we don’t know what the new next Madison Cawthorn and shock the political establishment in North district lines will look like yet, party strategists on both sides say the most Carolina, but there’s likely outcome is a map that resembles how the state was historically at least one person not divided, with one seat in the east and the other in the west. on board: Madison The state’s current at-large representative, Matt Rosendale, lives in Cawthorn. Glendive, which is in the eastern part of the state. The western part of the Bo Hines, a state, which includes Missoula, Bozeman, and Helena, is more hospitable former three-star to Democrats, and a new seat based there is likely to be competitive. wide receiver recruit, Ryan Zinke, who served from 2015 to 2017 as the state’s at-large is challenging Rep. congressman and then two years as President Donald Trump’s Secretary Virginia Foxx in the of the Interior, has already said he will run for the state’s (as yet GOP primary for undrawn) second seat. Zinke lives in Whitefish, which is in the western Courtest Bo Hines for Congress North Carolina’s Bo Hines part of the state. 5th District; Hines On the Democratic side, 2020 gubernatorial candidate Whitney styles himself after Cawthorn in appearance (sans wheelchair) and in his Williams told Inside Elections she is considering a run. Williams ran a contention that he is a new generation of GOP leadership. But Cawthorn, well-regarded Democratic primary campaign for the state’s top spot who represents North Carolina’s 11th District, endorsed Foxx’s re- against Lt. Gov. Mike Cooney, losing 55-45 percent (Cooney went on to election last month. At 77 years old and small in stature, Foxx can be lose the general election, 54-42 percent). Williams’ father, Pat Williams, underestimated. But people do so at their own political peril. represented Montana’s 1st District (Western Montana) in Congress for seven terms, from 1979-1993, and was the state’s at-large congressman Texas’ 6th District Special for another two, from 1993-1997. He was the last Democrat to represent Democrats were locked out of the special election to replace the Montana in the House. late GOP Rep. Ron Wright in this suburban Fort Worth District, after Another potential Democratic candidate is Cora Neumann, a public two Republicans finished first and second in the all-party primary on health expert and non-profit leader who was a leading contender in the May 1. Democratic Senate primary in 2020 but dropped out when Gov. Steve It’s an embarrassing result in a district that Joe Biden lost by just 3 Bullock entered the race. Several sources close to Neumann say she is points in 2020, 51-48 percent, and that House Democrats had targeted seriously considering a bid. last year. The party was unable to consolidate behind a single candidate, and instead split 37 percent of the vote among 10 candidates. Top North Carolina Senate performing Democrat Jana Lynne Sanchez, who was the party’s nominee Former state Supreme Court Chief Justice Cheri Beasley secured for this seat in 2018, received 13.4 percent. That put her just 354 votes an endorsement from EMILY’s List in the Democratic primary for the behind the second-place finisher, GOP state Rep. Jake Ellzey. The field Tar Heel State’s open Senate seat. Beasley is a top contender in a field was so crowded, and the party’s planning so poor, the seventh-best that also includes state Sens. Jeff Jackson and Erica Smith, and Beaufort performing Democrat, Manuel Richard Salazar, won 1,119 votes, more Mayor Rett Newton. The EMILY’s List nod is a boost to Beasley’s than three times what Sanchez needed to make the runoff. campaign and a blow to Smith. Last year, Smith ran for the state’s other Ellzey will now face off against Susan Wright, the congressman’s Senate seat but was passed over by the party establishment in favor widow who led the field with 19 percent, in an all-GOP runoff election of former state Sen. Cal Cunningham, who lost a narrow race to GOP that has yet to be scheduled. Wright was endorsed by Trump shortly incumbent Thom Tillis after a late-breaking sex scandal. Smith hoped before the primary, and also has support from the anti-tax Club for 2020’s disappointing result would persuade the party to give her a closer Growth. look this time, and was the first major candidate to enter the race, but It’s a familiar situation for Ellzey. In 2018, he ran against Ron Wright has been unable to gain traction so far. The EMILY’s List endorsement in the open GOP primary for this seat. Though he trailed Wright by 24 is another sign that retired astronaut Joan Higginbotham is not likely points, 45-21 percent, in the first round, he ran an unexpectedly strong to run; party strategists had previously said that either she or Beasley runoff campaign and held Wright to just a 52-48 percent victory.

10 May 7, 2021 NONPARTISAN ANALYSIS & RESEARCH