This issue brought to you by 2022 House Overview: State-by-State Redistricting Analysis MAY 7, 2021 VOLUME 5, NO. 9 By Nathan L. Gonzales and Jacob Rubashkin Six months into the 2022 midterm elections, and we still don’t know Impact of Reapportionment the congressional lines that will define and determine the fight for the After the decennial census, there is reapportionment in order to make House majority. And considering Republicans need a net gain of just five congressional districts the same size. Some states gain or lose seats depending seats, literally every seat matters. on population trends over the previous decade. The U.S. Census Bureau’s delays in relaying critical data has thrown States Gaining Districts (6) Change an extra degree of uncertainty into a redistricting process that normally Texas +2 (from 36 seats to 38 seats) has its own set of surprises. At the end of April, the Bureau released final apportionment figures, Florida +1 (from 27 to 28) albeit four months late. Seven states lost seats (California, Illinois, Montana +1 (from 1 to 2) Michigan, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia) while Colorado +1 (from 7 to 8) six states gained seats (Texas +2, Florida, Montana, Oregon, Colorado, and North Carolina). But even states that didn’t gain or lose seats must North Carolina +1 (from 13 to 14) redraw to account for population changes over the last decade. Oregon +1 (from 5 to 6) Of the nation’s 435 districts, Republicans will draw 187, Democrats States Losing Districts (7) Change will draw 74 and commissions will draw 121, according to each state’s law. There are 47 seats in states where redistricting power is split California -1 (from 53 seats to 52 seats) between Democrats and Republicans, and six states with single, at-large Illinois -1 (from 18 to 17) districts. Michigan -1 (from 14 to 13) It will still be months, however, before states can start drawing their new maps. The Census Bureau’s delay in releasing block-level data could Ohio -1 (from 16 to 15) upend the process in states with constitutional or statutory deadlines Pennsylvania -1 (from 18 to 17) and early primaries. In Iowa, for instance, the state Supreme Court has New York -1 (from 27 to 26) already said it expects it will have to draw the maps itself. The necessary data is scheduled to be released in August or West Virginia -1 (from 3 to 2) September. Ten years ago, half of the congressional districts had been Source: U.S. Census Bureau finalized by October of 2011. This fall, states will just be getting started. Just because a party controls the redistricting process doesn’t mean they can do whatever they want. And nearly every map will be challenged in court by the aggrieved party. Last decade, maps in Florida, Pennsylvania, and North Carolina were all redrawn by courts at least CALENDAR once following the initial redistricting. At the outset, Republicans appear to have an advantage in the May 8 Virginia Republican Gubernatorial Convention redistricting process. But the 2022 elections are more than the district June 1 New Mexico’s 1st District Special Election lines. The strength of individual candidates, quality of the campaigns, June 8 Virginia Democratic Gubernatorial Primary and the overall political environment will contribute to the outcomes June 8 New Jersey Gubernatorial Primary of each race. And while the immediate goal is the majority in 2022, the Aug. 3 Ohio’s 11th & 15th District Special Election Primaries success of maps drawn this cycle can’t be measured until later in the Nov. 2 Florida’s 20th District Special Election Primary decade when the political winds have shifted a few times. Nov. 2 Virginia & New Jersey Gubernatorial Elections InsideElections.com CALENDAR July 30-31 Democratic Presidential Debates (Detroit, Mich.) Oct. 12 Louisiana Gubernatorial Jungle Primary Aug. 6 Mississippi Gubernatorial Primary Nov. 5 Mississippi and Kentucky Gubernatorial General Elections Aug. 27 Mississippi Gubernatorial Primary Runoff Nov. 16 Louisiana Gubernatorial General Election Sept. 10 North Carolina’s 3rd & 9th District Special General Elections Dec. 2 Illinois Candidate Filing Deadline Sept. 12-13 Democratic Presidential Debates Dec. 9 Texas Candidate Filing Deadline Alabama. Current breakdown: 7R, 1D. According to pre- California. Current breakdown: 42D, 11R (Apportionment: -1 apportionment announcement estimates, the Yellowhammer State seat). Despite growing in population by 2.2 million people over the last was at significant risk of losing a congressional seat, but Alabama will decade, California retain its 8-member delegation. No partisan changes are expected, lost a congressional just a competitive Republican primary to replace 5th District Rep. Mo district in this round Brooks, who is running for the Senate. The map will be drawn by the of apportionment. GOP-controlled state legislature, and in the wake of the Shelby County v. According to Holder Supreme Court case, Alabama will no longer be required to seek speculation on both preclearance of its map from the U.S. Department of Justice. sides of the aisle, that seat could come Alaska. Current breakdown: 1R, 0D. No apportionment changes from the Central in Alaska, which has had a single, at-large district since it became a Valley (which is state in 1959. Rep. Don Young, the 87-year-old Republican who has Courtesy of U.S. Congress primarily represented Mike Garcia represented Alaska in the House since 1973, just announced he’s running by Republicans) or again. It seems like every cycle Democrats start to get excited about Los Angeles (which is almost entirely represented by Democrats). GOP defeating Young and he always wins. Rep. Mike Garcia’s district could also be at risk. Neither Democratic nor Republican strategists know for sure what the new map will look like Arizona. Current breakdown: 5D, 4R. Arizona not gaining a because the lines will be drawn by an independent, citizen commission tenth seat was one of the biggest surprises from the Census Bureau’s and it does not prioritize incumbent protection. The commission has apportionment announcement, so the state will have nine districts for the 14 members — five Democrats, five Republicans, and four unaffiliated next decade. Much of the state’s growth is in Maricopa County, which voters, all randomly selected from a pool of 60 chosen by a panel of state is trending Democratic from Donald Trump’s 3-point win in 2016 to Joe auditors — and can only pass a map with support from at least three Biden’s 2-point win in 2020. The two parties have slightly different views Democrats, three Republicans, and two unaffiliated members. It’s tough of what the new districts will look like. Democrats believe the population to determine the final net gain or loss of seats for each party until a new growth should make the surrounding 6th (GOP Rep. Dave Schweikert) map is finalized. For now, much of the political attention in the state is or 8th (GOP Rep. Debbie Lesko) districts more competitive. Republicans focused on the potential recall of Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom. believe the 1st (Democratic Rep. Tom O’Halleran) and 2nd (Democratic Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick is retiring) could become better takeover targets. Colorado. Current breakdown: 4D, 3R (Apportionment: +1 The lines will be drawn by a five-member redistricting commission. seat). After gaining a seat after the 1980 and 2000 censuses, Colorado is Four members are selected by state legislative leaders from a pool gaining another seat following the 2020 count. But for the first time, an assembled by the state’s commission on appellate court appointments, independent commission will draw the lines. The 12-member body (four and those four then select an independent chairperson out of a separate Democrats, four Republicans, four unaffiliated) was randomly selected pool assembled by the appointments panel. Republicans are confident from a winnowed group of qualified applicants, with some input from the process won’t be as partisan compared to 10 years ago, and the state legislative leaders. Maps will originate from the commission’s commission has already frustrated Democrats by hiring staff with GOP nonpartisan staff; the commission can provide direction with a vote of ties. In a neutral political environment, a ton of partisan turnover isn’t eight members, including two unaffiliated members. If the commission likely, but there’s uncertainty with the commission. cannot come to an agreement on a plan (which takes eight votes as well), then a plan designated the “third” plan produced by the staff is sent to Arkansas. Current breakdown: 4R, 0D. No major changes the state Supreme Court for review, and then implemented. With the expected in the Razorback State. Arkansas will retain its four districts new process there is more uncertainty about what the map will look like and Republicans are likely to hold them all. In 2020, none of the House and how many districts will be competitive. Considering just one of the races were closer than 10 points. The state legislature will draw the new eight congressional races in 2020 was decided by less than 10 points, map — this is the first post-census year since Reconstruction in which GOP and Democratic strategists are both hoping that the new seat is Republicans control the process. Continued on page 3 Ryan Matsumoto @InsideElections Contributing Analyst [email protected] facebook.com/InsideElections Bradley Wascher Will Taylor Contributing Analyst Production Artist [email protected] [email protected] Nathan L. 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