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Assessment of Imja Glacier Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF) Risk in Dudh Koshi River Basin Using Remote Sensing Techniques Kamal P

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Assessment of Imja Glacier Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF) Risk in Dudh Koshi River Basin Using Remote Sensing Techniques Kamal P December 2010 K.P. Budhathoki, O.R. Bajracharya & B.K. Pokharel 75 Assessment of Imja Glacier Lake outburst Flood (GLOF) Risk in Dudh Koshi River Basin using Remote Sensing Techniques Kamal P. Budhathoki1, O. R. Bajracharya1 & B.K.Pokharel1 1 Department of Hydrology and Meteorology, Babarmahal, GPO Box 406, Kathmandu, Nepal ABSTRacT Glacier lakes are common phenomena in the Himalaya region of Nepal. Glacier lake outburst floods have repeatedly caused the death tolls and severe damage to downstream infrastructures. In Himalayas, a vital uncertainty about the glacier lake hazard potential still exists, thereby the effects of accelerating rates of glacier retreat and expansion of Glacier Lake could be the wake of recent global warming and resulting climatic changes. The paper, first describes the general different-level approach upon which the study is based. Then, in the methodological part, applicable remote sensing techniques, geographic information system (GIS) and statistical methods are presented. Observed data of lake area, volume, and depth having similar lake characteristics reported in the different literature are used to develop empirical equations by using statistical methods. The values of r2 (coefficient of determination) - obtained are very high (r2=0.939 for depth – area relationship and r2= 0.990 for volume – area relationship). The comparison of the empirical expression clearly indicated that there is more than 90% variation in the dependent variable, lake volume,as explained by the linear regressions in both cases. Area of Imja glacier lake for different years are determined from the available satellite imagery and volume of the Imja glacier lake are estimated using the expression: V = 0.094A1.453.developed from linear regression analysis of the observed data. Similarly, mean depth can be estimated by using the expression: D = 0.94A0.452. After the preparation of maps and data, a scheme of decision criteria for the evaluation of hazard potential of Imja glacier lake is established. A list of decision criteria is a documented set of factors that are used to examine and compare for evaluating the hazard potential of a glacier lake. The empirical scores are given in terms of hazard magnitude for hazard rating. Analysis of Imja glacier lake based on the empirical scoring system clearly indicated that GLOF risk of the possible outburst from Imja glacier lake is MODERATE. A systematic application of remote sensing based methods for glacier lake outburst flood risk assessment is applicable and thus recommended. Keywords: Glacier lake outburst, remote sensing, risk assessment, hazard potential, empirical parameters, climate change 1. INTRODUCTION The studies also reflected that Himalayan glaciers have undergone various stages of retreat, advance Climate change studies showed that the Himalayan and standstill in those years, while the rate of glaciers have been receding since last 150 years. glacier retreat has been more rapid since 1990’s. Journal of Hydrology and Meteorology, Vol. 7, No. 1 SOHAM-Nepal 76 K.P. Budhathoki, O.R. Bajracharya & B.K. Pokharel December 2010 Results of such phenomena have been responsible them are found to be a considerable size. Data used for the development and expansion of glacier lakes in the study were high and low resolution satellite in the Himalayas. Most of the glacier lakes in Nepal data and past study reports. The paper first describes Himalaya are likely to have begun to develop in the the general different-level approach upon which the 1950s (Watanabe et al., 1994; Sakai, 1995). Many of study is based. Then, in the methodological part, the glacier lakes are formed on the debris-covered applicable remote sensing techniques, geographic areas of glaciers. Some of the glaciers have higher information system (GIS) and statistical methods rates of retreat due to which the glacier lakes are are presented. After the preparation of maps and increasing at unexpected rates. The process of fast data, a scheme of decision criteria (ICIMOD, 2001; glacier retreat and expansion of glacier lakes could Huggel et al. 2002 and RGSL, NEA. 2004) for the be the wake of recent global warming and leading evaluation of hazard potential of Imja glacier lake climatic changes. is discussed. It is crucial and challenges to judge and evaluate the potential risk assessment without Glacier lakes that are dammed with unconsolidated having the detailed geophysical field investigation weak natural moraines pose potential risk of their works. catastrophic failure, causing a huge flash flood in the downstream areas commonly known as Glacier 1.1 Socioeconomic imPacTS Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF). GLOF is a relatively of glacieR lake ouTBURST new type of natural hazard in the Himalayan floods region which has emerged as consequence of ongoing climate change. Glacier lakes drew the GLOF events are severe geo-morphological attention of many researchers, scientists and hazards and their floodwaters can wreak havoc on concerned institutions and abroad following the all human structures located on their path. Much outburst of Dig Tsho Lake in eastern Nepal on 4 of the damage created during GLOF events is August 1985. In the past couple of decades, several associated with the large amounts of debris that lakes caused outburst floods affecting human lives accompany the floodwaters. Damage to settlements and infrastructure (Vuichard and Zimmermann and farmland can take place at very great distances 1987; Yongjian and Jingshi 1992; Hanisch et al. from the outburst source (WECS 1987b). 1996). Past field investigation have identified that few glacier lakes are potentially dangerous and Direct and indirect sociological impacts are the recommended to adopt appropriate mitigation loss of human lives and the agricultural lands measures to minimize the possible damage in the when converted to debris filled lands due to which event of a GLOF. Most glacier lakes have not yet villages have to be shifted to other safe locations. been identified or studied because of their remote Based on the past GLOF events, many reports locations. coated that once every three to ten years, a GLOF has occurred in Nepal with varying degrees of The study especially focused on the use of remote socioeconomic impact. Brief studies of GLOFs sensing technology and other methods applied in throughout the world showed that there are no Imja glacier lake for potential risk assessment. Imja simple direct means of estimating the recurrence lake is one of the head sources of Dudh Koshi river. of GLOFs. Various GLOF events have occurred There are many glacier lakes in Dudh Koshi river periodically over the past in Nepal. Most of them basin. Imja glacier lake is a bigger one and few of were not recorded. An early overview of glacier Journal of Hydrology and Meteorology, Vol. 7, No. 1 SOHAM-Nepal December 2010 K.P. Budhathoki, O.R. Bajracharya & B.K. Pokharel 77 lake outburst hazards in Nepal was given by Ives A sudden burst of a glacier lake in any sub-basin (1986). Few of them were documented based may cause loss of lives and damage to the villages, on information from inhabitants living in the cultivated lands and infrastructures (hydropower, Himalayan highland along the river courses. Many irrigation sites etc.) situated downstream. Debris of these events originated in Tibet autonomous deposited by flood , landslide and temporary region of China outside the political boundary of damming due to flood can cause the major to the Nepal. people living hindrances downstream. As a consequence of the GLOF events, attention A sudden burst of Imja lake will cause extensive was drawn to large glacier lakes of Nepal and damage along the entire length of the Imja Khola/ Tibet. Few rivers of Nepal have their origin at Dudh Koshi valleys down to the confluence with Tibet, such as Arun river, Tama koshi, Sun Koshi, Sun Koshi, an overall distance of about 90 km. Gandaki and Karnali etc. Highly awareness Study showed that (Shrestha, 2007) a minimum and the realization of the destructive nature of estimated outburst flood from Imja Glacier Lake GLOF, the necessities of detail investigation of would affect significant changes on the local potentially dangerous lakes would come into topography and the river courses. In addition, the higher priority. International practices had shown low lying terraces of Dingboche village, Shanjo that if preventive measures are taken in time in Kalka and the hotels and lodges along trekking order to avoid likelihood disastrous flood that routes to Chhukhung, would be washed away. could occur from Glacier Lake, lots of lives and Tsuro Og, Orsho, Pangboche, Phunki, Thumbug, properties could be saved. The first mitigation Nyambua, Phakdingma, etc. are the villages program against GLOF in Nepal was undertaken situated within 32 km downstream of the lake in Tsho Rolpa, the largest glacier lake in Nepal. and these villages are most vulnerable to possible Selection of a mitigation measure against GLOF GLOF from Imja Glacier Lake (Braun and requires in depth knowledge in different aspects Fiener, 1995). The study was carried out by using of the glacier lakes. hydrodynamic model coupled with extensive use of geo-informatics. The model outputs provide 1.2 IMPORTance of GLOF Risk information on flood arrival time, discharge and assessmenT in Dudh Koshi depth at different locations in the valley which RiveR Basin could improve the understanding on the effects of a GLOF from Imja Lake. The study of glacier lakes is very imperative for the planning and implementation of any 2. Physical seTTing of Imja socioeconomic and water resource development glacieR lake in Dudh Koshi project. Past records reveal that glacier lakes have Basin created devastating floods and damage to major constructions and infrastructure. Imja Lake is located in Solukhumbu district, Sagarmatha Zone, Eastern Development Region There are a lot of hydropower potential sites as of Nepal at aerial distances of about 163 km well as thousands hectors of cultivated lands along from Kathmandu and about 6 km south of Mount the Dudh Koshi river courses.
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