Bus Action Plan for North East Scotland – Volume 1 Nestrans – The Transport Partnership for Aberdeen City and Shire

In association with MVA Consultancy

December 2009

Contents

1 Introduction 1.1 1.1 Purpose of the Bus Action Plan 1.1 1.2 The Bus Action Plan in a Policy Context 1.2

2 Review of Previous Studies 2.1 2.1 Introduction 2.1 2.2 Purpose of the Literature Review 2.1 2.3 Study 1 – Towards a Bus Action Plan for the 21st Century (2007) 2.1 2.4 Study 2 – Future Development of Park & Ride in Aberdeen City and Aberdeenshire (2006)2.4 2.5 Study 3 – Aberdeen City Centre Shuttle Bus (2008) 2.6 2.6 Study 4 – Locking in the Benefits of the Aberdeen Western Peripheral Route (Executive Summary) (2008) 2.7 2.7 Study 5 – Aberdeen Access from the South (Executive Summary) (2008) 2.8 2.8 Study 6 – Health and Transport Action Plan (2008) 2.10

3 Travel-to-Work Data Analysis 3.1 3.1 Introduction 3.1 3.2 Employment Density 3.1 3.3 Volume of Journeys Undertaken in Aberdeenshire 3.2 3.4 Volume of Journeys Undertaken for Aberdeen City 3.5

4 Desire Line Maps 4.1 4.1 Introduction 4.1 4.2 Desire Lines Showing Car Travel to Work Trips Between Data Zones 4.2 4.3 Desire Lines Showing Public Transport Travel-to-Work Trips Between Data Zones 4.4 4.4 Summary of Key Points from the Above Maps 4.5

5 Regional Accessibility Analysis 5.1 5.1 Introduction 5.1 5.2 Measures of Accessibility – ‘Hansen’ Indicators 5.1 5.3 Accessibility Analysis Undertaken 5.2 5.4 Understanding the Results 5.6 5.5 The Results 5.7 5.6 Access to Health Care 5.8 5.7 Access to Retail Centres 5.14 5.8 Access to Employment 5.19

6 Congestion on the Road Network 6.1 6.1 Introduction 6.1 6.2 Findings About Road Speeds 6.1

Nestrans – The Transport Partnership for Aberdeen City and Shire i Summary

Figures

Figure 3.1 Employment Density in Jobs per KM2 3.1 Figure 3.2 Number of Journeys Undertaken by Car for Aberdeenshire 3.3 Figure 3.3 Number of Journeys Undertaken by Bus for Aberdeenshire 3.3 Figure 3.4 Number of Journeys Undertaken by Car for Aberdeen City 3.5 Figure 3.5 Number of Journeys Undertaken by Bus for Aberdeen City 3.6 Figure 4.1 Travel-to-Work trips Between Data Zones, Made by Car 4.2 Figure 4.2 Travel-to-Work Trips Between Data Zones, Made by Public Transport. 4.4 Figure 5.1 Hansen Accessibility Indicators - Deterrence Function 5.1

Appendices

Appendix A – Travel to Work maps

Appendix B – Nestrans Accessiblity Analysis Maps

Appendix C – Nestrans Congestion Analysis Maps

Appendix D – Ranked List of Access to GPs

Appendix E - Ranked List of Access to Retail Facilities

Appendix F – Aberdeenshire Supported Bus Services

Nestrans – The Transport Partnership for Aberdeen City and Shire ii

1 Introduction

1.1 Purpose of the Bus Action Plan

1.1.1 The finalised Nestrans Regional Transport Strategy (RTS) outlines a series of measures to improve bus services across the region. The RTS also commits Nestrans to producing a Bus Action Plan which presents a detailed programme of actions needed to achieve the bus proposals set out within the Strategy. MVA Consultancy was commissioned by Nestrans to produce this Action Plan, working with Aberdeen City Council, Aberdeenshire Council, Stagecoach Bluebird and First Aberdeen, which are the two local authorities and the two principal bus operators involved in the existing voluntary Quality Partnership for Public Transport (QP). The Quality Partnership is a unique collaboration formed with the aim of improving bus services, and making public transport more attractive and accessible throughout the region. The partners signed an agreement in 1998 to work together to increase public transport use in line with policies and targets emerging (at that time) in the Local Transport Strategy. The agreement was refreshed and updated in October 2005 and includes a Passenger Charter and over 20 standards and targets that cover all aspects of bus travel. It is envisaged that this Bus Action Plan will be adopted by the partners for delivery.

1.1.2 The Bus Action Plan is comprised of two volumes. Volume 1 sets out all the background data collection and analysis which underpinned the development of the Bus Action Plan. In Volume 2 we go on to describe in more detail the proposed elements of the Action Plan and, more importantly, to identify specific locations where the proposals should be implemented. For clarity the major part of this presentation takes the form of a series of maps on which we can summarise the issues and proposed remedies, as well as providing a visual cue as to their location.

1.1.3 Volume 1 is therefore structured as follows:

„ Chapter 2 – review of previous studies. This section summarises a number of previous studies relevant to the Nestrans Bus Action Plan; it specifically highlights the problems and issues they identify with the current network;

„ Chapter 3 – travel-to work data analysis. These maps were generated by assigning data from the 2001 Census to the Aberdeen Sub-Area Model (ASAM) network;

„ Chapter 4 – travel-to-work data analysis using desire lines. These maps were generated by mapping travel-to-work movements between ASAM zones using desire lines;

„ Chapter 5 – regional accessibility analysis. We developed an Accession™ model of the Nestrans area to examine accessibility to healthcare facilities, retail locations, key settlements and employment opportunities; and

„ Chapter 6 – congestion analysis. These maps were generated using NAVTEQ road speed data in order to highlight points of congestion along the road network of Aberdeen and Aberdeenshire.

1.1.4 Each section contains a summary of conclusions/findings, based on the data analysis. The findings outlined here informed our understanding of the issues and opportunities facing buses in the Nestrans area and thus led to the development of the proposed measures and recommended interventions outlined in Volume 2 of the report.

Nestrans – The Transport Partnership for Aberdeen City and Shire 1.1 1 Introduction

1.2 The Bus Action Plan in a Policy Context

1.2.1 Volume 1 of the Bus Action Plan has been developed taking into account the objectives and strategic direction of the following documents:

„ Nestrans Regional Transport Strategy;

„ Aberdeen City and Aberdeenshire Local Transport Strategies;

„ Aberdeen City and Aberdeenshire Local Plans;

„ Current North East Structure Plan (NEST) - a new Structure Plan is currently being taken forward by Aberdeen City and Aberdeenshire Councils to replace NEST. It is envisaged that this will occur in 2010;

„ Aberdeen Airport Surface Access Strategy;

„ A Travel Plan for Aberdeenshire; and

„ Regional Car Parking Strategy (currently in development).

1.2.2 The Nestrans Bus Action Plan is aligned with the Scottish Government’s national bus action plan ‘An Action Plan for Buses in Scotland’ (2006). The national bus action plan sets out strategic aims, objectives and actions which are required in order to develop bus services in Scotland.

1.2.3 The Scottish Government will be issuing bus policy guidance in 2009 as part of its general update/consolidation of Scottish Planning Policy. It is expected that this guidance will cover issues such as bus and land-use planning, bus service information, and possible use of grants/financial incentives to stimulate increased modal shift.

1.2.4 In addition to the documents listed above, the Nestrans Bus Action Plan takes into account the strategic outcomes of the High Level Bus Forum in Scotland. The aim of this forum is to realise a vision for improved bus services and infrastructure in Scotland, and provides an arena for major figures from the Scottish bus industry and key stakeholders to come together to agree aspirations and responsibilities, along with key actions for achieving these. The most recent meeting, on 11th March 2008, was focused around the four key themes of: Bus Route Development Grant (BRDG); Partnerships and Park and Ride; Bus Enforcement, Integrated Ticketing and Information; and Standards Compliance.

1.2.5 The following key areas for consideration by local authorities and regional transport partnerships were raised at the meeting. The italics following each bullet point indicate the current position within the North East in relation to these, and future aspirations for progression:

„ the comparative levels of car parking charges and bus fares and how they impact on travelling decisions: Bus fares are recognised as being high in the North East. Nestrans and the two local authorities are currently looking into the development of a regional parking strategy, and Aberdeen City has an action within its Local Transport Strategy to review parking policy, charges and systems, including reviewing charges with respect to both inflation and comparison with bus fares. An action has also been proposed to promote the development of a pilot project to reduce bus fares within parts of the City to achieve modal shift and improve social inclusion.

Nestrans – The Transport Partnership for Aberdeen City and Shire 1.2 1 Introduction

„ the use of local regulatory powers to decriminalise bus priority traffic offences: Eight bus lane enforcement cameras have been installed in Aberdeen using Public Transport Fund award monies, and the system was the first to become operational in Scotland in January 2004. The system is operated in partnership with Grampian Police, who are required to prosecute offenders as the contravention of bus lanes is still contained within criminal law. Aberdeen City Council is currently in the process of seeking to extend the primary legislation introduced in 2003 to decriminalise the enforcement of waiting offences within the city to also include bus lane offences. The Council is also supportive of introducing cameras on board buses as an enforcement measure. Aberdeenshire Council will be considering decriminalised parking in the future, particularly in light of responsibilities under the Disability Discrimination Act.

„ providing Park & Ride facilities: Further Park & Ride sites are planned within the North East. Preferred sites include the A96(T) Inverurie Road west of Dyce Drive, Hill of Banchory adjacent to the A93 North Deeside Road and a possible site on the A947 south of Newmachar following the AWPR order publication. Schoolhill, adjacent to the A90(T) north of Portlethen, has been identified as the preferred location in transportation terms for a site to the south of the City. A group of officers from Nestrans and both Councils has been set up to investigate the construction and maintenance of this site, as it is envisaged that this will be developed on a partnership basis. This group will also be looking at the most effective way of operating the P&R facilities throughout the North East in the future. Talks have also been initiated with Transport Scotland regarding a feasibility study for a High Occupancy Vehicle Lane on the A90(T) Stonehaven Road and Large Vehicle Lane on the A956 Wellington Road. The HOV lane could be a demonstration project in Scotland and allow a Park & Choose service to operate from the planned site at Schoolhill. In addition to the above bus based Park & Ride sites, Nestrans and the local authorities are keen to promote Park and Ride at existing and proposed rail stations. In addition to the 20% contribution to the costs of reopening the rail station at Laurencekirk, timetable for which was introduced in December 2008, Nestrans will be fully funding the increased costs of constructing a larger car park.

„ use of BRDG to stimulate new and improved bus services and facilities: Aberdeen City Council and Aberdeenshire Council have both previously had success in bidding for Bus Route Development Grant awards, although the transfer of BRDG funding to local authorities under the new operating framework may make it more difficult to identify and agree expenditure for this purpose. However Nestrans has had input to the Single Outcome Agreements and it is hoped that this (along with the Bus Action Plan) will help to secure monies for bus route development in future. It must be noted that the bus industry is facing severe financial pressures in the current year with a cap in Bus Service Operators Grant (BSOG). Fuel duty rebate, the cap in concessionary fare payments in 07/08 and associated uncertainty in 08/09, and high transport inflation (particularly fuel prices) have the potential to stall growth and improvement in service provision, and may well result in service cuts.

„ the positioning of bus improvement measures within the Single Outcome Agreements: It is very difficult to include specific bus improvement measures within the SOA’s as they are at a high level, but both SOA’s for the North East include mention of

Nestrans – The Transport Partnership for Aberdeen City and Shire 1.3 1 Introduction

requirement to deliver Regional and Local Transport Strategies in relation to buses, mode shift and travel planning against a number of the National Objectives.

„ the benefits of partnership working between local government, bus operators and - where appropriate - the regulatory authorities in order to raise quality and increase passenger growth: The last point is of particular relevance to the Nestrans Bus Action Plan given the strong history of partnership working between Nestrans, Aberdeen City Council, Aberdeenshire Council, First Aberdeen and Stagecoach. It was noted in the forum that a collaborative approach is vital to success in the modal shift agenda.

1.2.6 Whilst the QP has enabled progress to be made for buses in Aberdeen City and Aberdeenshire, it is recognised that a sustained and continued effort is required by all parties if the potential of the QP is to be fully realised. Trends in traffic and car ownership are not being reversed, and bus mode share is not at the level required in order for the targets set out in the Local and Regional Transport Strategies to be met. If these trends are to be reversed significant interventions (as per those recommended in Volume 2 of the Bus Action Plan) will need to be employed, supported by strong and sustained political backing. It is recognised that the success of this Bus Action Plan depends not only on the five members of the Quality Partnership, but also the wider stakeholders within the Nestrans area.

Nestrans – The Transport Partnership for Aberdeen City and Shire 1.4

2 Review of Previous Studies

2.1 Introduction

2.1.1 As part of the baseline review, a comprehensive and critical review of a number of documents relevant to the Bus Action Plan has been undertaken. These are as follows:

„ JMP Consulting (2007) ‘Towards a Bus Action Plan for the 21st Century’;

„ Faber Maunsell (2006) ‘Future Development of Park & Ride in Aberdeen City and Aberdeenshire’;

„ TAS Partnership (2008) ‘Aberdeen City Centre Shuttle Bus’;

„ Faber Maunsell and SIAS (2008) ‘Locking in the Benefits of the Aberdeen Western Peripheral Route’ (Executive Summary);

„ SIAS (2008) ‘Aberdeen Access from the South’ (Executive Summary); and

„ JMP (2008) ‘Nestrans and NHS Grampian Health and Transport Action Plan’ (Executive Summary).

2.2 Purpose of the Literature Review

2.2.1 For each of the studies we have highlighted the key problems/issues which have been identified with the current network, in addition to noting whether or not the studies make any recommendations which the Bus Action Plan needs to consider.

2.2.2 Any information that is of relevance to the Bus Action Plan has been summarised in the list in section 2.9. This list feeds directly into the suggested proposals and interventions which we list in Volume 2 of the report.

2.3 Study 1 – Towards a Bus Action Plan for the 21st Century (2007)

Aim

„ To provide a high-level scoping study which forms the basis for a more detailed Bus Action Plan for Nestrans. Specific aims were:

• to provide an overview of the bus network in the Nestrans area;

• to identify gaps, problems or constraints; and

• to draw on Best Practice from elsewhere in order to identify possible solutions, opportunities for growth and actions, that if implemented will complement and enhance the existing network and to provide the basis for future detailed investigation.

Nestrans – The Transport Partnership for Aberdeen City and Shire 2.1 2 Review of Previous Studies

Methodologies Used

„ Consultation with officers/staff from Aberdeen City Council, Aberdeenshire Council, First Aberdeen and Stagecoach Bluebird, and Nestrans. Market research with existing bus users, whereby a short survey was undertaken with a small sample of people waiting for buses at various locations in Aberdeen and Aberdeenshire. Mapping of existing bus network.

Problems and Issues Identified With Current Network

„ the Nestrans area benefits from a reasonably geographically comprehensive bus network, although much of the network is (understandably) focused on providing links to the city centre. Services are of a reasonable frequency;

„ journey options on non-city radial routes are much more limited, which severely limits options for efficient access by bus between Aberdeenshire towns that are not on the same Aberdeen radial and between many Aberdeen suburbs (including to peripheral centres for employment);

„ service availability is significantly lower outside the Monday to Saturday daytime period, particularly in more rural areas and presents difficulties for people trying to travel in evenings, at weekends or on designated local holidays;

„ the review of travel-to-work data from the 2001 Census indicates a number of wards have a low bus mode share when specified as an employment destination. Dyce, Tullos, Stockethill, Bankhead & Stoneywood, Queens Cross and Castlehill are identified as possible ward areas where there may be opportunities to enhance the bus network to increase bus mode share;

„ consultation findings indicate that increasing traffic congestion was seen as the single biggest barrier to maintaining the existing service provision and commercial service enhancements. However, increasing financial pressures in the industry are also placing severe constraints on network growth and development (eg capping of Bus Service Operator’s Grant, increasing fuel and labour costs, tightening public sector spending, etc);

„ consultation suggested that more should be done to promote a bus network that is perceived to be high-quality, efficient and good value by the potential users. Measures to promote bus priority would facilitate this. Introduction of high-quality commuter services on some routes into Aberdeen is seen as desirable good practice. It must be noted that there is variable quality in bus service provision throughout the Nestrans area;

„ consultees felt that some enhancements had been introduced on a rather ad-hoc basis when funds allowed and that more coordination between operators and local authorities may enable joint approaches to improvements in certain corridors or areas;

„ consultees felt that at least one of the Park and Ride sites has not delivered its potential due to a variety of issues including site access, relative cost of use and journey times. Integration with the existing bus network had proved difficult, thus reducing the ability to provide commercial input into service delivery;

„ plans have been received highlighting serious delays for buses at various times of the day. Whilst these ‘pinch points’ are relatively few in number, the effect on the bus network in terms of delay and the requirement for bus operators to inject additional

Nestrans – The Transport Partnership for Aberdeen City and Shire 2.2 2 Review of Previous Studies

vehicles into the network, is substantial. Operational reliability and service frequency are of major concern to passengers, councils and operators. Priority is provided through infrastructure measures in only a very few locations and not all bus lanes are long enough to maximise benefits;

„ reaction to the introduction of ‘FTR-type superbuses’1 was mixed. The use of low emission or alternative fuel vehicles was seen as an important issue;

„ high fares are the single biggest concern of fare paying passengers, although reliability/punctuality of services was also recognised as a major issue (particularly within Aberdeen City). Further analysis is needed in order to determine where on the network and to what extent fares are acting as a deterrent to travel;

„ interchange between bus services is not as easy as it could be. There is a lack of information on interchange opportunities and of multi-operator ticket options, which limits the potential for connections. There should also be integration between scheduled bus, Demand Responsive Transport (DRT) and Community Transport (CT) in the region, and also bus, rail, ferry and air;

„ ‘Real Time’ Information (RTI) is not available in Aberdeenshire, and is not utilised by Stagecoach where it is available in Aberdeen City;

„ no formally adopted bus information strategy is in place, though production of such strategies is a statutory obligation for local authorities; and

„ some bus stops are of poor quality or have no shelters. Raised kerbs are only available at 25% of stops.

Key Conclusions

„ The Action Plan outlines a number of specific strategic interventions which the Bus Action Plan should seek to undertake. These are:

ƒ ‘Priority 1 Interventions’ such as ‘identify infrastructure measures to ease delays at pinch points’, ‘increase marketing and awareness to improve the image of bus travel’, ‘expand Park and Ride provision’ and ‘improve the bus stop environment’;

ƒ ‘Priority 2 Interventions’ such as ‘improve integration of bus with rail, ferry and air’ and ‘investigate the enhancement of DRT operations’; and

ƒ ‘Priorities for Research’ which are recommendations for more detailed consideration of themes such as accessibility planning, ticketing structures, low emission buses and enforcement of bus lane regulations.

1 The ‘FTR’ system, a loose abbreviation of ‘the Future of Travel’, is an example of bus rapid transit employed by First Group in a number of cities around the UK, notably York and Leeds. The concept differs from a ‘conventional’ bus system in terms of vehicle design, fare collection arrangements, and the way in which travel information is delivered to the passenger. The experience is designed to be more akin to travelling on light rail than on a traditional scheduled bus service.

Nestrans – The Transport Partnership for Aberdeen City and Shire 2.3 2 Review of Previous Studies

2.4 Study 2 – Future Development of Park & Ride in Aberdeen City and Aberdeenshire (2006)

Aim

„ To undertake a strategic review of Park and Ride (P&R) in the north east of Scotland. The study reviews the existing provision and patronage of Park and Ride services in the north east and considers the travel demand in the area. It considers lessons from Park and Ride experience elsewhere, including a comparison of national behavioural trends and regional behavioural trends relating to Park and Ride and presents issues of significance in development of an appropriate framework for Park and Ride and the appropriate application of this framework.

Methodologies Used

„ Desktop study referencing previous market research exercises, research works and relevant publications.

Problems and Issues Identified With Current Network

„ poor utilisation at Portlethen rail station (ie 0% utilisation of car parking spaces) due to the low frequency of the rail service, lack of marketing and awareness, the location of the station away from the A90 trunk road and the high level of bus services in the area. Few people use the train at all from this station.

„ although Ellon Park and Ride showed relatively low utilisation (43%) on the day the snapshot survey was taken, it is acknowledged that usage at this site is generally high and continues to display a high rate of growth. Aberdeenshire Council are starting to consider expansion of the car park, given the growth in car numbers. The capacity on the public transport services may jeopardise future growth and should be further considered, although Stagecoach have been in the process of piloting high capacity double-decker buses on this route;

„ lack of seating capacity on Bridge of Don bus service is thought to be constraining further growth and full utilisation of this site;

„ Kingswells Park and Ride service takes a loop through Kingswells village which has been cited anecdotally as a deterrent for Park and Ride use. There is a poor perception of service because of this, and the service is underutilised;

„ bus priority provision is not extensive enough and must be reviewed. Likewise, parking policy needs to be considered;

„ limited rail frequency to rail Park & Ride sites;

„ lack of co-ordinated marketing;

„ bus priority measures are not significant enough. Buses sometimes get held up in congestion before reaching the bus priority; and

„ congestion is an issue on radial routes approaching Aberdeen, suggesting a market for Park and Ride may exist if there is sufficient promotion of the service and perceptible benefit to motorists switching.

Nestrans – The Transport Partnership for Aberdeen City and Shire 2.4 2 Review of Previous Studies

Key Conclusions

„ short/immediate-term actions are:

• installation of monitoring at all existing Park and Ride sites if none currently exists (patronage and cars at Ellon Park and Ride and other sites have been monitored since they were first implemented); and

• work with operators to introduce season tickets; review the route of the Kingswells service to see where time savings and reliability improvements can be made.

„ medium-term actions include:

• work between Nestrans and the two local authorities to consider further development of bus priority to alleviate bus congestion, placing particular emphasis on Kingswells;

• work to review and monitor parking charges in the city centre, specifically comparing on/off street parking for residents from the Kingswells and Westhill catchments to residents from the Bridge of Don catchment;

• continued consultation with bus operators with regards to increasing capacity on the Ellon and Bridge of Don services;

• obtain usage data from bus operators to allow fuller assessment of Park & Ride usage;

• approach Transport Scotland to develop options for P&R at rail stations;

• development of a consistent marketing strategy;

• Vehicle Management System (VMS) on the approaches to Park and Ride sites; and

• work with bus operators to provide ticket options, ie season tickets and multi-trip tickets;

„ long-term options concern infrastructure developments relating to the AWPR, Aberdeen cross-rail and service changes to the rail network; and

„ it is recommended that the focus of Park & Ride should concentrate on travel to Aberdeen City Centre. A Park and Ride site should be located so as to intercept as wide a market of travellers as possible, to ensure that the site and the service is economically viable.

Nestrans – The Transport Partnership for Aberdeen City and Shire 2.5 2 Review of Previous Studies

2.5 Study 3 – Aberdeen City Centre Shuttle Bus (2008)

Aim

„ To examine the feasibility of establishing a city centre shuttle bus providing a connection between various areas in the city centre.

Methodologies Used

„ Desk-based research to identify available vehicles and technologies, appraisal of route options and costs/feasibility. Stakeholder consultation undertaken.

Problems and Issues Identified With Current Network

„ public transport links with areas of the city will be significantly altered by redevelopment of the Guild Street bus station and the proposed Union Street pedestrianisation. This will alter the nature of access between the bus and rail station and potentially remove bus services from a significant major thoroughfare. Shuttles may not be able to depart directly from the station entrance;

„ proposed pedestrianisation of the central section of Union Street between Bridge Street and Market Street. This will be coupled with a range of traffic management measures;

„ plans to develop the Bon Accord and St Nicholas shopping areas. This development includes an arc stretching down to Union Street at its junction with Market Street;

„ a new retail centre is being constructed at Union Square on the site of the current bus station and former railway goods yard. Guild Street bus station has beene re-sited within this development;

„ conflict with walking policies. The preferred option conflicts with the principle of full pedestrianisation which has been agreed by the council but is arranged so that only the shuttle will penetrate the pedestrianisation of Union Street and in one direction only; and

„ the cost of connecting with the 17:00 ferry is quite considerable, so it has been suggested that a separate contract should be issued if there is a wish to provide journeys connecting with the ferry on the days that it departs at 17:00.

Key Conclusions

„ five possible options were identified. The recommended option ('Option 2') is a short simple circuit of the city which places all commercial areas of the city within 200m walk of the shuttle service, whilst minimising the impact upon commercial bus services. The potential conflicts with existing bus services (plus impacts on Park and Ride, walking, and Union Street pedestrianisation) were considered in Chapter 5 of the report, which concluded that the impact of the shuttle services upon commercial services is likely to be small, although overlap between the shuttle and commercial services would increase with the proposed Union Street pedestrianisation. However, the report points out that the key issue is not one of service coverage but rather an issue of ‘information and markets’. For example, the shuttle bus is likely to target new users who previously may not have travelled (or known how to travel) shorter distances. Total annual operating costs for the preferred route were quoted at £407,402 including bus station departure charges; however

Nestrans – The Transport Partnership for Aberdeen City and Shire 2.6 2 Review of Previous Studies

„ further to the publication of this report, a report to the Nestrans Board on 16 April concluded that no further action on this project is likely to take place in the foreseeable future.

2.6 Study 4 – Locking in the Benefits of the Aberdeen Western Peripheral Route (Executive Summary) (2008)

Aim

„ The study objective was to update the previous work which demonstrated the potential benefits (transport, economy, environment, safety, integration, health, accessibility, and social inclusion) of the route and how the Aberdeen Western Peripheral Route supports the Regional Transport Strategy (RTS), Local Transport Strategies (LTS), as well as the National Transport Strategy (NTS). The study summarises the current linkages between the various projects being promoted across the City and Shire, which are only achievable with the AWPR in place and identifies other transport initiatives that can be progressed to further ‘lock in’ the benefits provided by the AWPR, to achieve a more sustainable transport network throughout the area.

Methodologies Used

„ Review of policy documents; review of existing studies and data.

Problems and Issues Identified With Current Network

„ ASAM analysis shows that North Anderson Drive and the A90 from the south will experience the most benefits in reduced traffic volume. This is accompanied by journey time benefits on other routes including: the A90 in the northern area of Aberdeen, the Parkway, the A96 by the Airport and Stoneywood Road Dyce. Localised benefits would be found on other corridors including the A93 and A944;

„ rural routes along the B979 that are used as unofficial bypasses, particularly from Stonehaven to Maryculter Bridge and from Peterculter to Westhill, shall see reductions in traffic flow when the AWPR is in place. For this corridor, more important than travel time savings in these locations, is the ability to use these routes for local and leisure trips by walking, cycling and for accessing local services. A reduction in traffic volume will provide relief on this route which will promote local amenity; and

„ suburban areas and areas adjacent to key corridors in Aberdeen City will benefit from journey time reductions from the North, the South and on Anderson Drive. The need and temptation to ‘rat run’ to avoid delays on key corridors shall be reduced, thus relieving pressure on local communities where this has, in the past, been an issue.

Key Conclusions

„ Eleven key corridors have been identified across the region. A variety of measures has been recommended for these eleven corridors and has been identified on Ordnance Survey tiled plans.

Nestrans – The Transport Partnership for Aberdeen City and Shire 2.7 2 Review of Previous Studies

2.7 Study 5 – Aberdeen Access from the South (Executive Summary) (2008)

Aim

„ the study follows on from original work undertaken by JMP (‘Aberdeen South Access Study’) as a result of the Scottish ministerial announcement regarding the preferred AWPR route, with an additional new spur road to Stonehaven. To that end, the main aims of the study were to:

• review the Aberdeen South Access Study in light of the revised proposed route for the AWPR;

• review the options identified in the original study for the short, medium and long- term;

• review the preferred location for a Park & Ride facility to the south of the city; and

• identify and test alternative solutions where appropriate.

„ the main focus of the study was on both the A90 (T) Stonehaven Road and A956 Wellington. Additionally, road corridors to the south of Aberdeen were studied, including the four main road bridges over the River Dee namely: Bridge of Dee, Queen Elizabeth II Bridge, King George VI Bridge and Victoria Bridge.

Methodologies Used

„ Scottish Transport Appraisal Guidance (STAG) appraisal - assessments using S- Paramics microsimulation traffic models along with information from ASAM; stakeholder workshop.

Problems and Issues Identified with Current Network

„ seven key areas were highlighted as requiring specific solutions;

„ existing public transport services are not deemed to adequately link housing and industrial areas. Some bus priority measures are already in operation on Wellington Road, but the level of congestion means public transport services, along with all other modes of transport, are significantly delayed;

„ there is a general movement of population from Aberdeen City to Aberdeenshire which brings an increase in commuter trips;

„ committed developments of both industry and housing in Aberdeen South will exacerbate the current traffic problems unless infrastructure improvements are in place;

„ road traffic issues regarding access to Aberdeen from the South arise in the main from the River Dee and its four road crossings, which are significant points of congestion. Conflicting movements of traffic to the city centre and to the Tullos/Altens industrial areas on Wellington Road in the AM peak, and vice versa in the PM peak, are also a source of congestion. Freight access is an issue due to width restrictions which require a Heavy Goods Vehicle (HGV) ban on Bridge of Dee, and height restrictions on Riverside Drive. Growth in traffic in recent years means that key areas are now over capacity at peak times for extended periods; and

Nestrans – The Transport Partnership for Aberdeen City and Shire 2.8 2 Review of Previous Studies

„ the perception of poor, or a lack of, travel choices has an influence on travel habits and the nature of small villages and rural areas in Aberdeenshire results in a high level of car use.

Key Conclusions

„ seven key geographical areas were highlighted as requiring specific solutions, and stakeholders were asked to identify what they believed to be short, medium and long-term solutions to the problems in these areas;

„ a process of option sifting was then undertaken and work packages were brought together for appraisal and assessment;

„ four work packages were devised for the short-term (2008) and assessed using a ‘Do-Minimum’ model. A number of junction improvements were found to bring benefit in the short-term, particularly if combined with options such as improving public transport access to East and West Tullos industrial estates, preventing ‘rat running’ through residential areas, and setting up a Transportation Management Organisation (TMO) for the Altens, Tullos and Cove areas to implement green travel plan initiatives;

„ six work packages were devised for the medium-term (2012) and assessed using a ‘Do-Minimum’ model. The packages consisted of:

• signalising Bridge of Dee and King George VI bridge, creating a separate pedestrian/cycle bridge;

• removing footway on Bridge of Dee;

• signalising Hareness Rd/Wellington Rd junction;

• one-way gyratory using Bridge of Dee and King George VI bridge;

• replacing Souterhead Roundabout with signal controlled junction;

• providing bus priority and improved pedestrian/cyclist facilities;

• Park and Ride options; and

• providing High Occupancy Vehicle (HOV) options on Stonehaven Rd.

„ four work packages were devised for the long-term (2027) and assessed using a ‘Do-Minimum’ model. The packages consisted of:

• widening Bridge of Dee with roundabouts/traffic signals at junction;

• providing a new two-way bridge upstream of Bridge of Dee;

• providing a new bridge upstream of Bridge of Dee to form gyratory; and

• providing an HOV lane on Great Southern Road from Bridge of Dee to King George VI Bridge in both directions.

Nestrans – The Transport Partnership for Aberdeen City and Shire 2.9 2 Review of Previous Studies

2.8 Study 6 – Health and Transport Action Plan (2008)

Aim

„ To develop a Health and Transport Action Plan (HTAP) to address the topics of: promoting active travel, transport and public health and access to healthcare.

Methodologies Used

„ Desk-based research into the three topic areas: consultation with key stakeholders including NHS Grampian, the Scottish Ambulance Service, Aberdeen City, Council Aberdeenshire Council, Moray Council and Hitrans.

Problems and Issues Identified with Current Network

„ problems identified were less network-specific and more general issues which relate to health and transport;

„ those issues which do relate to the Bus Action Plan are:

the people living in Aberdeen City are exposed to poor air quality due in part to road traffic; some busy roads in the region generate noise levels in excess of accepted annoyance thresholds; people being killed or injured in crashes on the region’s roads; there is a large diversity of need for transport to healthcare; and issues of inequality and social exclusion in access to healthcare;

„ the transport network providing access to healthcare is highly complex, including private car, scheduled public transport, Scottish Ambulance Service (SAS), DRT services, taxi, and patient, friends, and family transport.

Key Conclusions

„ Three tables of recommendations were generated addressing the three themes surrounding health and transport, ie promoting active travel, transport and public health, and access to healthcare. Key recommendations which will be of significance to the Bus Action Plan include:

building on current partnership arrangements to develop a cohesive Active Travel Working Group; recognising the benefits to active travel that increased public transport use can bring and work to implement the Bus Action Plan; exploring the potential for schemes such as the salary sacrifice schemes for public transport season tickets; identifying and quantifying socio-economic gaps in transport provision and the unmet need for transport to healthcare; undertaking an audit of the public transport and active travel accessibility of each healthcare site; engaging with Local Authority Bus Operators Forum (LABOF) to understand how they can help increase accessibility to healthcare facilities by, for example, implementing the Bus Action Plan; and

Nestrans – The Transport Partnership for Aberdeen City and Shire 2.10 2 Review of Previous Studies

ensuring that relevant information on transport options is provided to patients and visitors and there are no gaps in accessibility. Summary of Main Problems and Issues 2.8.1 The following list summarises the key problems and issues associated with the current network as identified through the above literature review. This list feeds directly into the suggested proposals and interventions which we list in Volume 2 of the report.

„ limited journey options on non-city radial routes in the region;

„ restricted service availability at certain times, particularly in more rural areas (e.g. DRT provision may be lacking in the morning peak) - this highlights the nature of transport provision in rural areas, and the challenges posed by (amongst other things) the tendency to integrate the use of vehicles;

„ low bus mode share to employment opportunities in Dyce, Tullos, Stockethill, Bankhead & Stoneywood, Queens Cross, and Castle Hill;

„ congestion hotspots impact upon service reliability and public perception of the bus network;

„ the bus network could be better promoted;

„ insufficient interchange opportunities;

„ high fares - further analysis needed to determine where and to what extent fares are high in real terms on the north east bus networks;

„ ‘real time’ information is not available in Aberdeenshire and is not utilised by Stagecoach where it is available in Aberdeen City;

„ bus priority is lacking in areas, and not all bus lanes are long enough to maximise benefits;

„ some bus stops in Aberdeen City are of poor quality. Lack of raised kerbs for passengers boarding and alighting services;

„ issues with Park and Ride namely: poor utilisation at certain locations; low frequency/capacity bus services to the sites; services to Kingswells are routed via the nearby village; lack of marketing and awareness of sites; lack of bus priority measures;

„ the proposed pedestrianisation of Union Street will alter the nature of bus services in the centre of the City;

„ changes in traffic flows throughout the region due to the AWPR which will have a major impact on the bus network;

„ public transport does not link some housing and industrial areas adequately;

„ the transport network providing access to healthcare is highly complex;

„ current financial pressures on the industry is placing severe constraints on network growth/development;

„ integration of services between scheduled buses, rail, airport, and ferry could be improved; and

„ integrated/multi operator ticketing arrangements are limited.

Nestrans – The Transport Partnership for Aberdeen City and Shire 2.11

3 Travel-to-Work Data Analysis

3.1 Introduction

3.1.1 The objective of the travel–to-work data analysis is to highlight the current patterns of travel to and from work by both bus and private transport as a means of identifying future markets for public transport use. The analysis chiefly serves to highlight the volume of journeys to work undertaken by car, in comparison to the volume undertaken by bus, and how these volumes are distributed throughout the network.

3.1.2 The travel-to-work data was taken from the 2001 Census and assigned to the Aberdeen Sub-Area Model (ASAM) road and public transport network. The Aberdeen Sub-Area Model of the Transport Model for Scotland (TMfS) is a multi-modal strategic transport model covering the majority of the primary road and public transport network within the northeast of Scotland. ASAM is used to forecast changes to travel patterns that arise once a new transport scheme or policy is introduced. These resulting changes reflect the principal choices of route, mode of transport and destination the traveller will make.

3.1.3 The travel-to-work data includes students travelling to school and university and is based on journeys undertaken in the morning peak.

3.1.4 The maps display traffic flows in each direction, and so are useful for showing journeys both towards and away from areas.

3.2 Employment Density

3.2.1 In order to understand the travel-to-work data, it is useful to first illustrate the dispersal of employment locations throughout the Nestrans area.

Figure 3.1 Employment Density in Jobs per KM2

Nestrans – The Transport Partnership for Aberdeen City and Shire 3.1 3 Travel-to-Work Data Analysis

3.2.2 Figure 3.1 illustrates access to all employment density in the northeast of Scotland defined as the number of jobs per square kilometre. The dark purple areas indicate the greatest number of jobs per square kilometre (ie greater than 400) and the light areas indicate the lowest number of jobs per square kilometre (ie less than 2.5). The map shows (and calculations take into account) employment opportunities as far south as Dundee, not just employment within the Nestrans area.

Key Points

„ as would be expected, the highest concentrations of employment opportunities are in Aberdeen City and the northwest of the city centre in Dyce, Inverurie and Westhill;

„ there are other notable pockets of high employment density clustered around the northern coastal towns, ie Peterhead, Fraserburgh, and Banff, as well as Stonehaven to the south; and

„ by comparing this map with the emerging Aberdeen City and Aberdeenshire Structure Plan we see that the areas highlighted correspond with the strategic growth areas identified in the forthcoming Structure Plan.

3.3 Volume of Journeys Undertaken in Aberdeenshire

3.3.1 This analysis is based on the 2001 census data, with respondents’ travel information extracted and allocated to an assumed route (based on direct routings obtained from the Transport Model for Scotland). Clearly there may have been changes in travel patterns since 2001, but these seem unlikely to be significant – particularly if we focus on patterns rather than the quantum of travel. The allocation to the road network may also result in discrepancies (ie it takes no account of apparently “irrational” less direct routings and may not fully reflect the pattern of bus services). Again the emphasis is on a general illustration to inform further analysis, rather than on the detail of individual journeys – which in any case will not lend themselves to travel by bus.

3.3.2 These maps display travel-to-work data for Aberdeenshire, specifically the number of travel-to-work journeys which are undertaken by car and by bus along the main corridors, allocated to nominal routes as described above. Flows are indicated by colour, ie lime green bands indicate the lowest flows and red bands indicate the highest.

Nestrans – The Transport Partnership for Aberdeen City and Shire 3.2 3 Travel-to-Work Data Analysis

Figure Volume of Journeys Undertaken by Car

Figure 3.2 Number of Journeys Undertaken by Car for Aberdeenshire

Figure 3.3 Number of Journeys Undertaken by Bus for Aberdeenshire

Nestrans – The Transport Partnership for Aberdeen City and Shire 3.3 3 Travel-to-Work Data Analysis

Key Points

„ there are essentially three corridors with substantial car flows – southbound from Peterhead and Ellon along the A90, northbound from Stonehaven and Portlethen along the A90, and south-eastwards from Elgin along the A96. These corridors also have a relatively high proportion of bus flows along them, although car has a much larger mode share than bus indicating that market penetration may be poor with scope for improvement. Journeys southbound from Ellon, and eastbound from Inverurie are also relatively high for both bus and car;

„ a high volume of northbound journeys are also undertaken by car from Laurencekirk, although bus mode share from this location is relatively low. This is however the main corridor used by incoming vehicles to the area so these high volumes are to be expected;

„ there is a consistently high volume of two directional car flows all along the A96 from Elgin. Closer to Aberdeen City the flows become one directional into the urban area; and

„ There appears to be a network gap southbound along the Oldmeldrum – Inverurie – Westhill corridor as the volume of car journeys are considerably higher here than bus journeys. It may be beneficial to further investigate bus provision along the A90 corridor from Laurencekirk, Stonehaven and Portlethen, as car volumes along here indicate there may be potential for mode shift.

Nestrans – The Transport Partnership for Aberdeen City and Shire 3.4 3 Travel-to-Work Data Analysis

3.4 Volume of Journeys Undertaken for Aberdeen City

3.4.1 The following maps display travel-to-work data for Aberdeen City, specifically the number of travel-to-work journeys which are undertaken by car and by bus along the main corridors, allocated to nominal routes in the same way as described for Aberdeenshire. Flows are indicated by colour, ie lime green bands indicate the lowest flows and red bands indicate the highest.

Figure 3.4 Number of Journeys Undertaken by Car for Aberdeen City

Nestrans – The Transport Partnership for Aberdeen City and Shire 3.5 3 Travel-to-Work Data Analysis

Figure 3.5 Number of Journeys Undertaken by Bus for Aberdeen City

3.4.2 These maps are best analysed in conjunction with the maps of car and bus travel-to-work trips in Appendix A. The map ‘Car Travel-to-Work Trips for Aberdeen City >500’ displays the actual volume of car flows at various points on the network. Volumes of greater than 500 cars are displayed as numbers on the map. Those roads which have trips of less than 500 but greater than 250 are illustrated by a black line (with no number). The map ‘Bus Travel-to-Work Trips for Aberdeen City >100’ displays the actual volume of bus passenger flows at various points on the network. Volumes of greater than 100 bus passengers are displayed as numbers on the map. Those roads which have trips of less than 100 but greater than 50 are illustrated by a black line (with no number).

Key Points

„ the map indicates that the highest number of journeys undertaken by car are coming from the south, ie from the settlements of Stonehaven and Portlethen via the A90 up to Bridge of Dee. Bus flows are evident along this corridor, but mode share is much lower when compared to car;

„ there are a large volume of car journeys around Aberdeen on Anderson Drive. The method used to assign the data shows that this route would also be used by a significant number of bus passengers if there were suitable services. A complete orbital bus route along Anderson Drive is not in place at present, although the maps indicate that bus movements along this route do exist (primarily as bus routes from the radial corridors come in to the city centre via Anderson Drive);

„ car volumes increase further as North Anderson Drive turns on to the A96 (Inverurie Road) to Bucksburn;

„ bus passenger journeys around the A96/Aberdeen Airport/Dyce industrial estate area are low when compared with car volumes;

Nestrans – The Transport Partnership for Aberdeen City and Shire 3.6 3 Travel-to-Work Data Analysis

„ there is a high volume of both bus and car trips concentrated around the southeast, specifically the roads around Tullos and Altens industrial estates, and Loirston Country Park;

„ the map indicates that the highest number of journeys undertaken by bus are southbound from Bridge of Don into Aberdeen City. This can be explained by the presence of the Park and Ride site at Bridge of Don, plus the Stagecoach ‘Buchanlink’ group of services and the First ‘Bridges’ services; and

„ bus has a relatively high mode share southbound from Peterhead to Aberdeen City and northeast bound from Peterculter and Cults. There appears to be reasonably good bus patronage along this corridor (A93), and figures are relatively high for bus travel when compared to car travel. Less than 500 car trips are present along this stretch of road, compared to around 150 trips by bus. However this might be explained by driver behaviour, i.e. the fact that buses are routed along the A93 whereas car drivers driving in from Banchory mainly use the Raemoir/A944 axis. When looking at the Aberdeenshire map clear car flows can be seen northbound on the B-roads from Banchory to the A944 indicating that this may be the case.

Nestrans – The Transport Partnership for Aberdeen City and Shire 3.7

4 Desire Line Maps

4.1 Introduction

4.1.1 The travel-to-work data from the 2001 Census was also used to generate maps showing ‘desire lines’, ie the links between home and work without reference to the route taken. They show the journeys people want to make and the sphere of influence of a place.

4.1.2 The desire lines are mapped from the centre of each respective data zone. This can be misleading, so care must be taken when interpreting the maps, for example heavy flows between neighbouring zones can indicate short distance trips across the zone boundaries, rather than longer distance trips between the ‘centre’ of the zones.

4.1.3 The lines on the map do not represent directional flows, but rather the total number of trips which take place between pairs of zones.

4.1.4 The following desire line maps were created using Census data zones as it was felt that as they are smaller in scale than the ASAM data zones, they would give a clearer picture of travel-to-work trips in the Nestrans region.

4.1.5 Desire line maps are particularly useful for showing commuting patterns (both within Nestrans and outwith the region) to centres of employment which maps of the road network may fail to highlight.

4.1.6 Comparing the map of car travel to work with bus travel to work will also help to draw attention to possible gaps in the network, ie zone to zone journeys which are made by car but not by bus.

Nestrans – The Transport Partnership for Aberdeen City and Shire 4.1 4 Desire Line Maps

4.2 Desire Lines Showing Car Travel to Work Trips Between Data Zones

Figure 4.1 Travel-to-Work trips Between Data Zones, Made by Car

Nestrans – The Transport Partnership for Aberdeen City and Shire 4.2 4 Desire Line Maps

4.2.1 The above maps show number of travel-to-work trips between data zones, made by car. The dark purple desire lines indicate movements where the highest number of travel-to-work trips occur (ie over 55 car trips), whereas the grey lines show movements where the lowest number of travel-to-work trips occur (ie between 15 to 20 car trips).

Key Points

„ the map indicates that a large and geographically concentrated number of travel-to- work trips by car are taking place along a number of radial corridors such as into Aberdeen from Stonehaven, Banchory, Inverurie, Newmachar and Ellon;

„ aside from Aberdeen City, there are a number of other centres of employment throughout Aberdeenshire, all generating travel-to-work trips, ie Banchory, Huntly, Banff, Fraserburgh and Peterhead;

„ the light grey lines indicate the wide variety of trips which are being undertaken by car within the area. Whilst public transport cannot be expected to provide for all of these trips, it is interesting to note that many car trips are being made to zones to the northwest of the city, ie Inverurie, Westhill, Dyce and the Aberdeen Airport industrial estate area. The map below shows that none of these trips appear to be undertaken by public transport, suggesting a possible focus for action in this area; but remember

„ public transport works most efficiently where travel is concentrated – dealing with dispersed patterns is often not cost effective, particularly in a rural context, and at very least demands a rather different approach (eg DRT).

Nestrans – The Transport Partnership for Aberdeen City and Shire 4.3 4 Desire Line Maps

4.3 Desire Lines Showing Public Transport Travel-to-Work Trips Between Data Zones

Figure 4.2 Census Travel-to-Work by Public Transport.

Nestrans – The Transport Partnership for Aberdeen City and Shire 4.4 4 Desire Line Maps

4.3.1 The above maps show number of travel-to-work trips between data zones, made by public transport. The dark purple desire lines indicate movements where the highest number of travel-to-work trips occur (ie over 40 public transport trips), whereas the grey lines show movements where the lowest number of travel-to-work trips occur (ie between five to ten public transport trips).

Key Points

„ unlike the previous map, there doesn’t appear to be a large number of travel-to-work trips by PT between Stonehaven, Inverbervie and Aberdeen City; and

„ the highest concentration of public transport trips (outwith the Aberdeen City region) tends to be for shorter distance journeys rather than long-distance commutes. For example, Mintlaw, Banff, Fraserburgh, Alford, Turriff, Inverurie, Huntly, Ellon, Aboyne, Laurencekirk and Stonehaven all have a relatively high number of public transport trips feeding into the centre of their local zone.

4.4 Summary of Key Points from the Above Maps

4.4.1 The following list summarises the key points drawn from the above maps:

„ geographically concentrated number of travel-to-work trips by car are taking place along a number of radial corridors such as into Aberdeen from Stonehaven, Banchory, Inverurie, Newmachar and Ellon. Bus mode share for these trips appears to be lower than car mode share;

„ aside from Aberdeen City, there are a number of other centres of employment throughout Aberdeenshire, all generating bus travel-to-work trips from the surrounding areas. For example, Mintlaw, Banff, Fraserburgh, Alford, Turriff, Inverurie, Huntly, Ellon, Aboyne, Laurencekirk and Stonehaven all have relatively high number of public transport trips feeding into the centre of their local zone;

„ in general the highest concentration of public transport trips (outwith the Aberdeen City region) tends to be for shorter distance journeys rather than long-distance commutes. Cars tend to be utilised more for longer distance commutes to Aberdeen City, especially from areas to the south and southwest of Aberdeenshire; and

„ it is also important to consider the lighter coloured desire lines within the region, as they indicate that a wide range of trips are being undertaken by car to the Dyce region northwest of Aberdeen City. These trips are not mirrored by public transport trips.

Nestrans – The Transport Partnership for Aberdeen City and Shire 4.5

5 Regional Accessibility Analysis

5.1 Introduction

5.1.1 We developed an Accession™ model of the Nestrans area to examine accessibility to healthcare facilities, retail locations and employment opportunities. The following data were imported into the Nestrans Accession™ model:

„ Public transport service details – bus timetable and routing data were provided from Aberdeenshire Council (including the First Aberdeen April 2008 updates). Coach and rail public transport data were imported from the National Public Transport Data Repository (NPTDR) Imported data is valid from October 2007;

„ Road network details – the NAVTEQ road mapping layers have been used, ensuring inclusion of every road in the study area. The road network includes traffic speed data resulting from a GPS-based tracking system that records, every minute, the position of vehicles that are signed up to the system. ITIS Speeds with NAVTEQ Streets data are available for non-peak, all peak speeds and night-time;

„ Origins – the Nestrans model uses the finest spatial disaggregation available, ie full postcodes (14,384 postcodes in the Nestrans area); and

„ Destinations – Datazones eg Census 2001 number of jobs per datazone or postcode points (where single sites have been chosen).

5.2 Measures of Accessibility – ‘Hansen’ Indicators

5.2.1 The measures of accessibility used (known as ‘Hansen’ indicators) give a value for each zone in the model. The value reflects the cost of travelling to all the other zones in the modelled area. For travel to work, the indicator is a function of travel times from each zone to all employment, weighted by the number of jobs in each zone.

5.2.2 Figure 5.1 describes the deterrence function used to create the accessibility indicators. In order to achieve the correct sensitivity of the indices to travel time, the deterrence function is calibrated using the lamda value. A very high lamda value indicates that travel time is constrained, whereas lower lamdas are apparent when people are prepared to spend longer travelling such as for leisure or work trips. The Nestrans Accession™ model was updated to include a lamda value of 0.025 for access to employment by public transport and 0.045 for access to employment by car.

Accessibility Constant propensity to travel (0.03 for

Scottish Employment)

Az=∑ Ez exp(-λ Tz)

Employment at each destination Time between each origin and

Figure 5.1 Hansen Accessibility Indicators - Deterrence Function

Nestrans – The Transport Partnership for Aberdeen City and Shire 5.1 5 Regional Accessibility Analysis

5.3 Accessibility Analysis Undertaken

5.3.1 This chapter displays maps of accessibility analysis to the following facilities:

„ GP surgeries (87); „ retail facilities (56) and „ employment.

5.3.2 The following maps show the location of these within the Nestrans area:

Figure 5.1 Location of GPs’ Surgeries

Nestrans – The Transport Partnership for Aberdeen City and Shire 5.2 5 Regional Accessibility Analysis

Figure 5.1a Location of GP surgeries - Aberdeen City

Figure 5.2 Location of Retail Facilities -Aberdeenshire

Nestrans – The Transport Partnership for Aberdeen City and Shire 5.3 5 Regional Accessibility Analysis

Figure 5.2a Location of Retail facilities - Aberdeen City

5.3.3 The retail points in the map below were defined by CACI. CACI provide MVA with the most up-to-date, extensive and expansive retail centre data. All of the retail points within the Aberdeenshire and City boundaries were used to calculate access to the nearest retail facility. Each of the retail facilities have been categorised by CACI. There are 14 major categories and 48 minor categories. A note of which category each fits in is shown alongside the results in appendix E. For more information please see www.caci.co.uk.

Nestrans – The Transport Partnership for Aberdeen City and Shire 5.4 5 Regional Accessibility Analysis

Figure 5.3 Employment in Aberdeenshire

5.3.4 Figure 5.3 shows the amount of employment by datazone. Green areas have over 500 jobs per datazone. Orange areas have between 250 and 500 jobs in the datazone. Pink areas have 100 to 250 jobs per datazone, blue areas have 50 to 100 jobs per datazone and grey areas have less than 50 jobs. When access to employment is calculated Accession will use the postcodes as the origins and the centre point of the datazone as the destination. More information on how this is carried out can be found in the results section below.

5.3.5 Access to these locations by the following modes and at the following times was examined:

Facilities Time Period Mode

GP 9am-12noon Bus

Retail 9am-4pm Bus

Employment 6am-9am PT and Bus only

5.3.6 However, only “bus-only” information is presented here. In the main because this is a bus strategy and the difference between access by public transport times and access by bus only times is very slight. We had hoped to highlight the impact of the subsidised bus network, but differentiating between commercial and non- commercial bus services in Aberdeenshire is not straight forward. Some bus services are commercial on part of their route and subsidised on other parts of the route. Therefore it is not accurate enough to simply remove for example “service 10” from the model and re-run it. In collaboration with the team at Aberdeenshire Council a detailed commercial bus only accession model will be created with the use of specific data, in the future.

Nestrans – The Transport Partnership for Aberdeen City and Shire 5.5 5 Regional Accessibility Analysis

5.3.7 Access to employment by car is calculated as part of the Hansen Measure. See the ‘understanding the results’ section below for an explanation.

5.3.8 There were 216,511 households located in the Aberdeen and Aberdeenshire area as at period 2 of 2007 according to GRO data. 110,608 households are in the Aberdeen City Local authority area and 105,903 in the Aberdeenshire local authority area.

5.3.9 The number of households (HH) who can access the locations within time bands (0-15mins), (15-30mins), (31-45mins), (46-60mins), (61–75mins), (76–90mins) and (91–120mins) is shown, as is the number of households who do not have access.

5.3.10 All postcodes from the two local authority areas listed below have been included in this accessibility work:

„ Aberdeen City; and

„ Aberdeenshire.

5.4 Understanding the Results

5.4.1 Accession™ is an accessibility modelling tool and, as such, gives an approximate reflection of reality.

5.4.2 The road speed data is an average speed of the two directional flows on each road. These speeds reflect the presence of junctions in the road network. Accession™ assumes that the car driver leaves from their home postcode and follows the road network to arrive right outside their final destination. In reality, people are likely to spend around ten minutes parking and then some more time walking to their final destination, so the car time is generally underestimated.

5.4.3 Public Transport journey times include: a walk time from the origin to the bus stop or rail station; an interchange time, where interchange takes place; and a walk time to the destination. The walk times assume that the person travels as the crow flies and the distance is subject to a multiplication factor of 1.2 to allow for “non crow flies” routing.

5.4.4 PT time calculation assumptions are:

„ people will walk a maximum of 800m to a public transport stop (bus or rail stop);

„ the maximum distance travelled when interchanging will be 500m;

„ people will access the nearest PT stop on foot at a speed of 4.8km/hr; and

„ people will travel as the crow flies to access the stop.

NB all the data in the bulleted list were defined by the DfT when they designed Accession software.

5.4.5 This means that those postcode centre points that are greater than 800m from a bus/ rail stop will show as not accessible.

5.4.6 Bus only calculations include the bus and coach services and the assumptions bulleted above.

Nestrans – The Transport Partnership for Aberdeen City and Shire 5.6 5 Regional Accessibility Analysis

5.5 The Results

5.5.1 A set of maps has been produced to show firstly where the majority of the people (represented by households) in Aberdeen City and Shire live; and secondly the areas that are accessible by bus. Each map will be discussed in turn below, and a full set of maps have been bound together in Appendix C of this report.

Households per Postcode Zone in the Aberdeen City and Aberdeenshire Area

5.5.2 Figure 5.4 shows a map of the Aberdeenshire area. The map is showing how densely populated different postcode zones are. Postcode zones shown in a grey colour contain no households (HH) as at period 2, 2007 (source: GRO). The very light pink areas contain between one and ten households. 601 postcode zones have no resident households. The darker the red the more households are located in the postcode zone. Two postcode zones have more than 100 HH in them; these are AB24 3HU and AB25 1LE.

Figure 5.4 Households per postcode zone in Aberdeenshire

Nestrans – The Transport Partnership for Aberdeen City and Shire 5.7 5 Regional Accessibility Analysis

Figure 5.4a Households per postcode zone in Aberdeen City

5.5.3 Figure 5.4a shows a map of the Aberdeen City area. Postcode zones in grey show areas where there are no households. Pale pink areas are where there are between one and ten households and darker red areas are where more households are located. The area near Aberdeen City is darker red (ie more densely populated) and areas such as Bankhead, Bridge of Don, Northfield, Old Aberdeen, Mannofield, Kincorth and Mastrick show up as quite densely populated.

5.6 Access to Health Care

Access to GPs

5.6.1 Figures 5.5 and 5.5a show thematic mapping of the modelled time taken for households in the Aberdeen City and Aberdeenshire areas to access their nearest GP using a bus, travelling between 9am and 12 noon on a Tuesday. The map also shows the location of the 87 GP surgeries as red crosses. Results show:

5.6.2 For Nestrans as a whole:

„ 196,520 (91%) of the households in the Aberdeen and Aberdeenshire area could access a GP by bus;

„ 19,991 (9%) could not access by bus their GP during this time;

„ 160,652 (74%) can access their nearest GP by bus within 15 minutes;

„ 192,953 (89%) have access within 30 minutes; and

Nestrans – The Transport Partnership for Aberdeen City and Shire 5.8 5 Regional Accessibility Analysis

„ 196,240 (91%) have access within an hour.

5.6.3 Aberdeen City:

„ 109,956 (99%) of the households in the Aberdeen City Local Authority Area could access a GP by bus;

„ 652 (1%) could not access their GP by bus during this time;

„ 100,774 (91%) can access their nearest GP by bus within 15 minutes;

„ 109,853 (99%) have access within 30 minutes; and

„ 109,956 (99%) have access within an hour.

5.6.4 Aberdeenshire:

„ 86,564 (82%) of the households in the Aberdeenshire Local Authority Area could access a GP by bus;

„ 19,339 (18%) could not access their GP by bus during this time;

„ 59,878 (57%) can access their nearest GP by bus within 15 minutes;

„ 83,100 (78%) have access within 30 minutes; and

„ 86,284 (81%) have access within an hour.

5.6.5 The ranked list for the nearest GP of those GPs in Aberdeen City LA area is shown below.

Nestrans – The Transport Partnership for Aberdeen City and Shire 5.9 5 Regional Accessibility Analysis

Table 5.1 – Ranked list – Access to nearest GP – Aberdeen City

No.of HH whose Rank by RANK all Is GP in nearest City GP's GPs City or GP GP is ….. only Nestrans Shire? KINCORTH MEDICAL CENTRE 9,699 1 2 City NORTHFIELD/MASTRICK MEDICAL PRACTICE 7,418 2 4 City WOODSIDE MEDICAL GROUP 7,146 3 5 City GILBERT ROAD MEDICAL GROUP 6,784 4 6 City OLDMACHAR MEDICAL PRACTICE 6,375 5 7 City TORRY MEDICAL PRACTICE 5,942 6 9 City SCOTSTOWN MEDICAL GROUP 5,619 7 12 City WESTBURN MEDICAL GROUP 5,617 8 13 City CALSAYSEAT MEDICAL GROUP 5,001 9 14 City ALBYN MEDICAL PRACTICE 4,547 10 15 City GREAT WESTERN MEDICAL PRACTICE 4,110 11 16 City LINKS MEDICAL PRACTICE 4,010 12 18 City GARTHDEE MEDICAL GROUP 3,756 13 19 City VIRTUAL PRACTICE ONLY 3,723 14 20 City CULTS MEDICAL GROUP 3,626 15 21 City HAMILTON MEDICAL GROUP 3,513 16 22 City VICTORIA STREET MEDICAL GROUP 3,221 17 25 City ROSEMOUNT MEDICAL GROUP 3,049 18 26 City PETERCULTER MEDICAL PRACTICE 3,024 19 27 City HOLBURN MEDICAL GROUP 2,785 20 29 City FERRYHILL MEDICAL PRACTICE 2,671 21 32 City NORTHBURN MEDICAL PRACTICE 2,607 22 34 City BUCKSBURN MEDICAL PRACTICE 2,080 23 36 City PRACTICE FOR THE HOMELESS 1,945 24 38 City DANESTONE MEDICAL PRACTICE 1,883 25 39 City GRAMPIAN OUT OF HOURS SERVICE 1,727 26 41 City OLD ABERDEEN MEDICAL PRACTICE 1,596 27 43 City CARDEN MEDICAL CENTRE 1,103 28 49 City BRIMMOND MEDICAL GROUP 249 29 64 City RUBISLAW PLACE MEDICAL GROUP 133 30 66 City CAMPHILL MEDICAL PRACTICE 87 31 67 City

5.6.6 The ranked list for the nearest GP of those GPs in Aberdeenshire LA area is shown below.

Nestrans – The Transport Partnership for Aberdeen City and Shire 5.10 5 Regional Accessibility Analysis

Table 5.2 Ranked list – Access to nearest GP – Aberdeenshire

No.of HH whose Rank by RANK all Is GP in nearest Shire GPs City or GP GP is … GP's only Nestrans Shire? PETERHEAD HEALTH CENTRE 10,342 1 1 Shire INVERURIE MEDICAL GROUP 7,516 2 3 Shire FINLAYSON STREET PRACTICE 6,321 3 8 Shire ELLON GROUP PRACTICE 5,819 4 10 Shire STONEHAVEN MEDICAL GROUP 5,812 5 11 Shire SKENE MEDICAL GROUP 4,108 6 17 Shire PORTLETHEN MEDICAL CENTRE 3,500 7 23 Shire BANCHORY GROUP PRACTICE 3,416 8 24 Shire TURRIFF MEDICAL PRACTICE 2,935 9 28 Shire BANF AND GAMRIE MEDICAL PRACTICE 2,713 10 30 Shire MINTLAW GROUP PRACTICE 2,675 11 31 Shire BYDAND MEDICAL GROUP 2,637 12 33 Shire SALTOUN SURGERY 2,443 13 35 Shire MACDUFF MEDICAL PRACTICE 1,958 14 37 Shire INVERBERVIE MEDICAL GROUP 1,737 15 40 Shire KEMNAY MEDICAL GROUP 1,727 16 42 Shire ALFORD MEDICAL PRACTICE 1,453 17 44 Shire LAURENCEKIRK MEDICAL GROUP 1,372 18 45 Shire ABOYNE HEALTH CENTRE 1,365 19 46 Shire HADDO MEDICAL GROUP 1,302 20 47 Shire INSCH MEDICAL PRACTICE 1,169 21 48 Shire PORTSOY MEDICAL PRACTICE 1,052 22 50 Shire CENTRAL BUCHAN MEDICAL PRACTICE 1,006 23 51 Shire TORPHINS MEDICAL PRACTICE 926 24 52 Shire BALLATER CLINIC 924 25 53 Shire FYVIE OLDMELDRUM MEDICAL GROUP 889 26 54 Shire ABERCHIRDER MEDICAL PRACTICE 735 27 55 Shire CRIMOND MEDICAL CENTRE 499 28 56 Shire AUCHENBLAE MEDICAL CENTRE 485 29 58 Shire CUMINESTOWN MEDICAL PRACTICE 471 30 59 Shire CRUDEN MEDICAL GROUP 428 31 60 Shire TARLAND SURGERY 383 32 61 Shire RHYNIE SURGERY 357 33 62 Shire BRAEMAR HEALTH CLINIC 316 34 63 Shire STRATHDON MEDICAL CENTRE 16 35 68 Shire

5.6.7 There are 3 GP surgeries that are outwith the Nestrans area but which are nearest for some Nestrans residents: Castlegait Surgery, Edzell Health Centre and Keith Medical Group.

„ for 493 Households in the Nestrans area Castlegait Surgery has the shortest journey time when travelling by bus (with a walk to the stop);

„ for 172 Households in the Nestrans area Edzell Health Centre has the shortest journey time when travelling by bus (with a walk to the stop); and

„ for 2 Households in the Nestrans area Keith Medical Group has the shortest journey time when travelling by bus (with a walk to the stop).

Nestrans – The Transport Partnership for Aberdeen City and Shire 5.11 5 Regional Accessibility Analysis

5.6.8 Some GPs surgeries are very conveniently located, such that there is a bus service that will bring a high number of HH to them within 30 minutes travel time. The top five most accessible (by bus only) GP surgeries in the Nestrans area are:

„ 1. Peterhead Health Centre, 10,342HH (Shire)

„ 2. Kincorth Medical Centre, 9,699HH (City)

„ 3. Inverurie Medical Group, 7,516HH (Shire)

„ 4. Northfield/Mastrick Medical Practice, 7,418HH (City); and

„ 5. Woodside Medical Group, 7,146HH (City).

5.6.9 For further information see Appendix D.

Aberdeen Royal Infirmary

5.6.10 The map below shows access to Aberdeen Royal Infirmary by bus between 9am and 12 noon.

Figure 5.6 Access to Aberdeen Royal Infirmary from Aberdeenshire

Nestrans – The Transport Partnership for Aberdeen City and Shire 5.12 5 Regional Accessibility Analysis

Figure 5.6a Access to Aberdeen Royal Infirmary from Aberdeen City

5.6.11 Access to Aberdeen Royal Infirmary from the Nestrans region:

„ 193,437 (89%) of the households in the Aberdeen and Aberdeenshire area could access the Aberdeen Royal Infirmary by bus;

„ 23,074 (11%) could not access the Aberdeen Royal Infirmary by bus during this selected time period;

„ 14,136 (7%) can access ARI within 15 minutes by bus;

„ 88,494 (41%) have access within 30 minutes;

„ 136,769 (63%) have access within an hour; and

„ 185,507 (86%) have access within 2 hours.

5.6.12 It must be noted that this accessibility analysis does not take account of Demand Responsive Transport operating in the area so it is possible that the remaining 11% have access via DRT.

5.6.13 Access to Aberdeen Royal Infirmary from Aberdeenshire:

„ 83,481 (79%) of the households in the Aberdeenshire LA area could access the Aberdeen Royal Infirmary by bus;

„ 22,422 (21%) could not access the Aberdeen Royal Infirmary during this time period;

„ 0 (0%) can access within 15 minutes by bus;

„ 297 (0.3%) have access within 30 minutes;

Nestrans – The Transport Partnership for Aberdeen City and Shire 5.13 5 Regional Accessibility Analysis

„ 26,824 (25%) have access within an hour; and

„ 75,551 (71%) have access within 2 hours

5.6.14 Access to Aberdeen Royal Infirmary from the City of Aberdeen:

„ 109,956 (99%) of the households in the Aberdeen City LA area could access the Aberdeen Royal Infirmary by bus;

„ 652 (1%) could not access the Aberdeen Royal Infirmary during this time;

„ 14,136 (13%) can access within 15 minutes by bus;

„ 88,197 (80%) have access within 30 minutes; and

„ 109,945 (99%) have access within an hour.

„ 9 HH take longer than an hour to access the ARI by bus.

5.6.15 The map below shows the areas where bus access is not available. The bus stops have been added to highlight which postcode zones are 800m from the nearest bus stop.

Figure 5.6c Households with no access to the Aberdeen Royal Infirmary

5.7 Access to Retail Centres

5.7.1 Figure 5.18 shows the time taken for households in the Aberdeen and Aberdeenshire area to access their nearest Retail Centre travelling by bus between 9am and 4pm on a Tuesday. Retail centres were defined using market research categorisations developed by CACI – see appendix E. Results show:

Nestrans – The Transport Partnership for Aberdeen City and Shire 5.14 5 Regional Accessibility Analysis

5.7.2 Nestrans:

„ 196,571 (91%) of the households in the Aberdeen and Aberdeenshire area could access a retail centre by bus;

„ 19,940 (9%) could not access a retail centre by bus during this time;

„ 156,833 (72%) can access within 15 minutes by bus;

„ 191,890 (89%) have access within 30 minutes; and

„ 196,569 (91%) have access within an hour.

5.7.3 Aberdeen City:

„ 109,956 (99%) of the households in the Aberdeen City area could access a retail centre by bus;

„ 652 (1%) could not access a retail centre during this time;

„ 98,530 (89%) have access within 15 minutes by bus;

„ 109,853 (99%) have access within 30 minutes; and

„ 109,853 (99%) have access within an hour.

5.7.4 Aberdeeenshire:

„ 86,615 (82%) of the households in the Aberdeenshire area could access a retail centre by bus;

„ 19,288 (18%) could not access a retail centre by bus during this time;

„ 58,303 (55%) have access within 15 minutes by bus;

„ 82,037 (77%) have access within 30 minutes; and

„ 86,613 (82%) have access within an hour.

5.7.5 If we list the results in rank order we can see which retail centres are positioned closer to the greatest number of households within Aberdeen and Aberdeenshire. Appendix E shows the full list of Retail Facilities ranked, but the top five across the Nestran area are:

„ 1. Aberdeen – Holburn, 14,305HH (City)

„ 2. Aberdeen – Mastrick, 10,834HH (City)

„ 3. Fraserburgh, 9,847HH (Shire)

„ 4. Aberdeen – Queens Cross, 9,532HH (City)

„ 5. Peterhead, 9,255HH (Shire)

5.7.6 The ranked list for the nearest Retail Centre of those retail centres in Aberdeen City area is shown below.

Nestrans – The Transport Partnership for Aberdeen City and Shire 5.15 5 Regional Accessibility Analysis

Table 5.3 Ranked list – Access to nearest Retail Facility – Aberdeen City

No of HH whose nearest Retail Rank City RANK all City or Centre is Retail Retail Shire or Retail Point (CACI) …. only Nestrans OOA Note Aberdeen - Holburn 14,305 1 1City Aberdeen - Mastrick 10,834 2 2City Aberdeen - Queens Cross 9,532 3 4City Dyce 8,324 4 6City Aberdeen - Great Northern Road 7,886 5 7City Aberdeen - Berryden Retail Park 7,783 6 9City Aberdeen - Centre 7,327 7 11 City Aberdeen - Haudagain Retail Park 6,080 8 13 City Aberdeen - Torry 5,736 9 14 City Peterculter 5,341 10 15 City Aberdeen - Rosemount 5 ,150 11 16 City Aberdeen - Boulevard Retail Park 4 ,742 12 17 City Aberdeen - Braehead Shopping Centre 4 ,250 13 19 City Bridge of Don - Denmore Road 2 ,876 14 26 City Aberdeen - Kittybrewster Retail Park 2 ,749 15 28 City Aberdeen - Northfield 2 ,573 16 29 City Aberdeen - Bridge of Dee 2 ,146 17 30 City Aberdeen - Garthdee Road 1 ,926 18 31 City Aberdeen - Bridge of Don 1 ,861 19 34 City Aberdeen - Laurel Drive Shopping Centre 1 ,575 20 38 City Aberdeen - Centrepoint Retail 449 21 43 City very close to Berryden Retail Park

5.7.7 The ranked list for the nearest Retail Centre of those retail centres in Aberdeenshire area is shown below.

Table 5.3a Ranked list – Access to nearest Retail Facility – Aberdeenshire

No of HH whose nearest Rank Retail Shire RANK all Centre is Retail Retail Retail Point (CACI) …. only Nestrans City or Shire or OOA Fraserburgh 9,847 1 3 Shire Peterhead 9,255 2 5 Shire Stonehaven 7,867 3 8 Shire Inverurie 7,777 4 10 Shire Ellon 6,468 5 12 Shire Westhill 4,532 6 18 Shire Banchory 4,213 7 20 Shire Turriff 3,853 8 21 Shire

Nestrans – The Transport Partnership for Aberdeen City and Shire 5.16 5 Regional Accessibility Analysis

No of HH whose nearest Rank Retail Shire RANK all Centre is Retail Retail Retail Point (CACI) …. only Nestrans City or Shire or OOA Banff 3,676 9 22 Shire Peterhead - Balmoor Retail Park 3,571 10 23 Shire Portlethen 3,158 11 24 Shire Oldmeldrum 2,952 12 25 Shire Huntly 2,808 13 27 Shire Macduff 1,896 14 32 Shire Laurencekirk 1,882 15 33 Shire Kemnay 1,783 16 35 Shire Alford 1,636 17 36 Shire Aboyne 1,595 18 37 Shire Ballater 1,240 19 39 Shire Insch 1,203 20 40 Shire

Those at the top of the list may be described as "better located" retail points eg many people can access them by walking 800m to take a bus.

5.7.8 A particular interest in access to Westhill by bus was raised, and the map below shows the bus access times to get to the Marks and Spencers in Westhill.

Figure 5.8 Access to Westhill M&S from Aberdeenshire

Nestrans – The Transport Partnership for Aberdeen City and Shire 5.17 5 Regional Accessibility Analysis

Figure 5.8a Access to Westhill M&S from Aberdeen City

5.7.9 Figure 5.8 and Figure 5.8a shows the time taken for households in the Aberdeen City and Aberdeenshire areas respectively to access their Westhill M&S using the bus travelling between 4pm and 7pm on a Tuesday. Results show:

„ 186,218 (86%) of the households in the Aberdeen and Aberdeenshire area could access the M&S at Westhill by bus;

„ 30,293 (14%) could not access Westhill M&S by bus during this time;

„ 4,020 (2%) can access it within 15 minutes by bus;

„ 24,223 (11%) have access within 30 minutes; and

„ 118,567 (55%) have access within an hour.

5.7.10 The table below shows the number pf households who have access to Westhill between various timebands (less than 15minutes, less than 30minutes etc)

Table 5.4 Relative Accessibility to Westhill by Bus

Access to Westhill M&S by Bus Only City HH <15 <30 <60 <120 no access Is accessible 11 0,608 158 20,161 107,906 10 9,956 652 109,956 0.1% 18% 98% 99% 1% 99%

Shire HH <15 <30 <60 <120 no access Is accessible 10 5,903 3,862 4, 062 10,661 56,516 29,641 76,262 3.6% 3.8% 10% 53% 28% 72%

Nestrans – The Transport Partnership for Aberdeen City and Shire 5.18 5 Regional Accessibility Analysis

5.8 Access to Employment

5.8.1 Figure 5.9 shows the Hansen measure of car access to employment. The Hansen index is a function of the time taken to travel from the origin (postcode zone) to the destination (datazone of employment) and the number of jobs that are available in that zone. The map shows in pale yellow the areas where the time taken to access jobs by car is short and the number of jobs is high. The grey area is where the time taken to access employment is longer and the number of jobs is less. Figure 5.10 shows the Hansen measure of PT access to employment. The pale yellow area is much smaller in the PT map compared to the Car Map. This means that the time taken to access the same jobs by PT takes longer.

Figure 5.9 Hansen Car Access to Employment

Figure 5.10 Hansen PT Access to Employment

Nestrans – The Transport Partnership for Aberdeen City and Shire 5.19 5 Regional Accessibility Analysis

Figure 5.11 shows the difference between the Hansen Access by Car and the Hansen Access by PT. The red areas are where PT access to employment takes four times as long as a car. Purple areas are where PT access to employment takes two to three times as long. The orange areas are where PT takes 1.5 times as long as the car. Yellow areas are where the PT and car times are similar. Grey areas are where the PT is quicker than the car.

Figure 5.11 Difference between Car and PT access times to Employment

5.8.2 Access to employment by car is, as one would expect, good for most areas in Aberdeenshire and greatest for residents living in Aberdeen City and along the A90 road corridor to the south of the city. The southwest corner of the region (areas around Braemar and Ballater) shows poorer access by car relative to other parts of the region.

5.8.3 Access to employment across Aberdeenshire by public transport is patchy – and very poor in places. As could be expected, access is very good for residents living within Aberdeen City, but less so as one moves away from the city. Accessibility tends to be highest for those residents living along the major road corridors, ie the A96 to Elgin and the A947 to Banff. The closer one lives to the main roads (ie those routes served by bus, particularly the express services to Aberdeen City), the greater employment opportunities one has. However, for residents living away from the main road corridors, it is apparent that public transport is very uncompetitive when compared with using the car.

5.8.4 Accessibility from Laurencekirk and surrounding areas is currently limited by public transport compared to by car, but this will be addressed by opening of Laurencekirk station.

5.8.5 There is a general issue however: given the population trend in Nestrans which looks set to continue into the future ie people are moving away from Aberdeen City to live in these

Nestrans – The Transport Partnership for Aberdeen City and Shire 5.20 5 Regional Accessibility Analysis

‘commuter towns’, then public transport needs to reflect these changing needs and be provided in advance of major population movements.

5.8.6 Aberdeen and Aberdeenshire have a number of industrial estates at which large numbers of staff work. Access to two of these is mapped below. Access to Castlepark Industrial Estate (AB41 9RG) which is in Aberdenshire and 15 miles to the north of the City in Ellon and access to Altens Industrial Estate (AB12 3LF) in the South of Aberdeen City. Access will be illustrated between the hours of 6am and 9am.

Castlepark Industrial Estate

5.8.7 Access to Castlepark Industrial Estate from Nestrans is shown in the map below.

Figure 5.12 Access to Castlepark Industrial Estate by Bus

5.8.8 As you can see, access to Castlepark Industrial Estate, to the north of the City of Aberdeen, takes less than 15minutes for a small number of households (4%) 8,298 - the lilac areas in the map above. A large proportion of the map is coloured pale yellow. Pale yellow areas are where there is no access ie no bus stopping between 6am and 9am that would allow people to access Castlepark Industrial Estate. Some of the more rural areas will have very few people living there. The data below shows how many people do not have access.

5.8.9 The orange areas (access time between 61 and 120 minutes) on the map follow the roads in the region, whereas closer to the centre of Aberdeen the blue area (access in between 31 and 60 minutes) is a continuous area. This is likely to be because the bus stop spacing is much closer in the urban area than it is in a rural area. Should the buses operate on a contract that allows them to drop off and pick up at any point along their route then accessibility will be better along the roads that they use.

Nestrans – The Transport Partnership for Aberdeen City and Shire 5.21 5 Regional Accessibility Analysis

5.8.10 The number of households and the percentage of HH that can access Castlepark between 6am and 9am is as follows:

„ 191,994 (89%) of the households in the Aberdeen and Aberdeenshire area could access the Castlepark Industrial Estate by bus;

„ 24,517 (11%) could not access the Castlepark Industrial Estate by bus during this time;

„ 8,298 (4%) have access within 15 minutes by bus;

„ 56,961 (26%) have access within 30 minutes;

„ 135,168 (62%) have access within an hour; and

„ 188,964 (87%) have access within 2 hours.

5.8.11 A table showing access from City and Shire to Castlepark Industrial Estate is shown below.

Table 5.5 Household Access to Castlepark Industrial Estate by Bus Ci ty HH <15 mins <30 mins <60 mins <120 mins no access 110,60 8 8,298 5 5,251 1 09,886 1 10,029 579

8% 50% 99.3% 99.5% 1% Shire HH <15 mins <30 mins <60 mins <120 mins no access 105,90 3 - 1,710 25,282 78,935 23,938 0% 2% 24% 75% 23%

Altens Industrial Estate

5.8.12 Access to Altens Industrial Estate from Nestrans is shown in the map below.

Nestrans – The Transport Partnership for Aberdeen City and Shire 5.22 5 Regional Accessibility Analysis

Figure 5.13 Access to Altens Industrial Estate by Bus

5.8.13 As can be seen, access to Altens industrial estate by bus is between half an hour and an hour for those that live within the City boundary and close to the edge of it. For others it often takes between an hour and two hours. Although a large proportion of the map above is pale yellow, there are only 12% of the households in these areas.

5.8.14 The number of households and the percentage of HH that can access Altens Industrial Estate between 6am and 9am is as follows:

„ 191,266 (88%) of the households in the Aberdeen and Aberdeenshire area could access the Altens Industrial Estate by bus;

„ 25,245 (12%) could not access the Altens Industrial Estate by bus during this time;

„ 6,160 (3%) have access within 15 minutes by bus;

„ 53,417 (25%) have access within 30 minute;

„ 128,572 (59%) have access within an hour; and

„ 181,226 (84%) have access within 2 hours.

5.8.15 A table showing access from City and Shire to Altens Industrial Estate is shown below.

Table 5.6 Household Access to Altens industrial Estate by Bus

City HH <15 mins <30 mins <60 mins <120 mins no access 110,608 5,911 49,861 10 9,885 11 0,029 579 5% 45% 99% 99% 1%

Shire HH <15 mins <30 mins <60 mins <120 mins no access

105,903 249 3,556 18,687 71 ,197 24,666 0% 3% 18% 67% 23%

Nestrans – The Transport Partnership for Aberdeen City and Shire 5.23

6 Congestion on the Road Network

6.1 Introduction

6.1.1 In many transport planning studies, road congestion emerges as a major “criticism” from stakeholders. However congestion is heavily influenced by perception – “major congestion” in a medium-sized town may well be radically different to passenger perceptions of peak- hour congestion in a large city.

6.1.2 We wanted to be able to reflect this perceptual issue, while at the same time retaining a degree of objectivity which did not simply accept every allegation of congestion as read. We therefore made use of our database of road speeds which allowed us to examine not only average speeds on the roads involved, but to compare the experience of road users at different times of day, to offer quantifiable answers to questions such as: “How much slower is road X in the peak period?”

6.1.3 It is worthwhile stressing at this stage that the database is drawn from “real life” recordings of actual vehicles travelling over the roads concerned at different times of day. The data supplied by NAVTEQ in-vehicle monitoring systems is “real time” based on a large sample of actual journeys recorded automatically and is therefore the “best” guide available to the actual travel experience on the road

6.1.4 The maps referred to in this section are bound separately in Appendix E.

6.2 Findings About Road Speeds

6.2.1 Figures in Appendix C show average road speeds in the peak period for Aberdeenshire and Aberdeen City respectively. Of note are:

„ some fast radial roads in the north of the area from Fraserburgh, Banff/Macduff, Turriff, Mintlaw and Peterhead, and between Huntly and Oldmeldrum;

„ roads are generally slower closer to major settlements, although there is an extensive network of “slow” roads around Banff and Macduff;

„ closer to Aberdeen, again there are some faster radial roads around Inverurie, Banchory, Ballater and along the coast through Portlethen, Stonehaven and on to Laurencekirk; and

„ when zooming in around Aberdeen, the relatively “fast” radial roads are further highlighted, although none penetrate close to the city centre where average speeds are consistently lower than 30 kph.

The Impact of Congestion

6.2.2 Of greater significance are figures in Appendix C which illustrate the difference between peak hour and inter-peak speeds for the Shire and City respectively. These give us a representation of how these relative differences may be perceived. Of particular interest are the blue and purple coloured roads which highlight roads which are at least 10 kph “slower” in the peak. Again of note are:

Nestrans – The Transport Partnership for Aberdeen City and Shire 6.1 6 Congestion on the Road Network

„ in the smaller urban centres (eg Fraserburgh), speeds are generally consistent between peak and inter-peak;

„ there are significant sections of interurban road in an area bounded by Fraserburgh, Mintlaw, Ellon, Oldmeldrum, and Turriff which are noticeably slower in the peak;

„ the situation on the outer sections of the key radials from Aberdeen generally suggests road speeds which are consistent, between peak and inter-peak;

„ there is an area of “slower” roads to the west of Westhill;

„ there are some “slower” roads around Laurencekirk; and

„ as would probably be expected, road speed differences around Aberdeen are more pronounced, and the mapping will allow us to focus on particular “pinch points” where buses would benefit from priority.

6.2.3 In this context it would seem reasonable to expect that the roads highlighted above would be perceived by regular users to experience some form of congestion.

6.2.4 Finally in Appendix C we have compared the off-peak (ie early morning, evening and night-time) speeds with those observed in the peak, to give an illustration of how far short of “free flow” the traffic may be in the peaks. Delays in the city centre are particularly apparent, with the key radial to Dyce experiencing notably sub-freeflow conditions along almost its entire length. Perhaps more noteworthy is the apparent congestion in some suburbs, particularly to the north of the city, and in more outlying locations such as Dyce and Westhill.

The Response of Bus Companies

6.2.5 A process was developed to identify congested and uncongested vehicle journeys from ATCO-CIF bus timetable and routing information files for Aberdeen and Aberdeenshire. The latest available Atco.cif files were used:

„ bus service data - March 2008 (supplied from Aberdeenshire Council); and

„ coach service data – October 2007 (extracted from the National Public Transport Database NPDTR)

6.2.6 We developed a program which compares all the vehicle journeys within a particular service which have exactly the same start stop and same end stop. The process involved in then pinpointing sections of bus routes where delays occur is described below.

„ Firstly, the journey timetables were compared on a stop-by-stop basis. Only the sections (ie between two bus stops) where there was a journey time difference between 1 minute and 5 minutes were retained.

„ The ‘midpoint’ was calculated – based on the mid-way point between the ‘start’ bus stop and the ‘end’ bus stop. NOTE the midpoint does NOT represent a bus stop- it is the halfway point between two stops.

6.2.7 The total delay at each ‘midpoint’ was calculated (eg the delay for every service at each ‘midpoint’ was summed).

6.2.8 Figures 6.6 and 6.7 compare ‘AM (07:00 to 09:00) vs off-peak’, showing that bus companies have allocated additional running time:

Nestrans – The Transport Partnership for Aberdeen City and Shire 6.2 6 Congestion on the Road Network

„ in Aberdeen City –

along Great Northern Road/Auchmill Road (A96);

along King Street/Ellon Road;

along Queen’s Road;

around Dyce;

in Kingswells; and

immediately south of Bridge of Dee;

„ in Aberdeenshire –

along the A96 from Inverurie.

6.2.9 This may result from a variety of impacts (including simply that buses are busier in the peaks), but does give some guidance about where bus priority measures may have particular value. We can therefore use this information – in Volume 2 – to describe the proposed responses to identified congestion.

Nestrans – The Transport Partnership for Aberdeen City and Shire 6.3

MVA Consultancy provides advice on transport and other policy areas, to central, regional and local government, agencies, developers, operators and financiers.

A diverse group of results-oriented people, we are part of a 350-strong team worldwide. Through client business planning, customer research and strategy development we create solutions that work for real people in the real world.

For more information visit www.mvaconsultancy.com

Birmingham Lyon Second Floor, 37a Waterloo Street 11, rue de la République, 69001 Lyon, France Birmingham B2 5TJ United Kingdom T: +33 (0)4 72 10 29 29 F: +33 (0)4 72 10 29 28 T: +44 (0)121 233 7680 F: +44 (0)121 233 7681 Manchester Dubai 25th Floor, City Tower, Piccadilly Plaza PO Box 123166 Dubai, 803 - 805 Arbift Tower Manchester M1 4BT United Kingdom Baniyas Road, Deira, Dubai UAE T: +44 (0)161 236 0282 F: +44 (0)161 236 0095 T: +971 (0)4 223 0144 F: +971 (0)4 223 1088 Marseille Dublin 76, rue de la République, 13002 Marseille, France First Floor, 12/13 Exchange Place T: +33 (0)4 91 37 35 15 F: +33 (0)4 91 91 90 14 Custom House Docks, IFSC, Dublin 1, Ireland T: +353 (0)1 542 6000 F: +353 (0)1 542 6001 Paris 12-14, rue Jules César, 75012 Paris, France Edinburgh T: +33 (0)1 53 17 36 00 F: +33 (0)1 53 17 36 01 Stewart House, Thistle Street, North West Lane Edinburgh EH2 1BY United Kingdom Woking T: +44 (0)131 220 6966 F: +44 (0)131 220 6087 First Floor, Dukes Court, Duke Street Woking, Surrey GU21 5BH United Kingdom Glasgow T: +44 (0)1483 728051 F: +44 (0)1483 755207 Seventh Floor, 78 St Vincent Street Glasgow G2 5UB United Kingdom T: +44 (0)141 225 4400 F: +44 (0)141 225 4401

London Second Floor, 17 Hanover Square London W1S 1HU United Kingdom T: +44 (0)20 7529 6500 F: +44 (0)20 7529 6556

Email: [email protected]

Offices also in

Bangkok, Beijing, Hong Kong, Shenzhen and Singapore