Reactions to Disconfirmed Prophecy in a Millennial Sect

Home , When Prophecy Fails

University of Montana ScholarWorks at University of Montana

Sociology Faculty Publications Sociology

4-1983

When The Bombs Drop: Reactions to Disconfirmed Prophecy in a Millennial Sect

Robert W. Balch University of Montana - Missoula, [email protected]

Gwen Farnsworth

Sue Wilkins

Follow this and additional works at: https://scholarworks.umt.edu/sociology_pubs

Part of the Sociology Commons Let us know how access to this document benefits ou.y

Recommended Citation Balch, Robert W.; Farnsworth, Gwen; and Wilkins, Sue, "When The Bombs Drop: Reactions to Disconfirmed Prophecy in a Millennial Sect" (1983). Sociology Faculty Publications. 2. https://scholarworks.umt.edu/sociology_pubs/2

This Article is brought to you for free and open access by the Sociology at ScholarWorks at University of Montana. It has been accepted for inclusion in Sociology Faculty Publications by an authorized administrator of ScholarWorks at University of Montana. For more information, please contact [email protected]. WHEN THE BOMBS DROP Reactionsto DisconfirmedProphecy in a MillennialSect

ROBERT W. BALCH GWEN FARNSWORTH SUE WILKINS Universityof Montana

This article reports the results of an ethnographic study of a millennial Baha'i sect whose leader predicted that the world would be devastated by nuclear war on April 29, 1980. Shortly before that date we began a participant-observer study of the sect, and during the following eight months we supplemented our observations by interviewingmembers and defectors in the four states where the group's leader had a substantial following. The purpose of the investigation was to replicate the classic study of disconfirmed prophecy reported in When Prophecy Fails by Festinger,Riecken, and Schachter. They found that prophetic disconfirmation was followed by an increase in conviction and heightened efforts to recruit new believers. We report contrary findings and explore social psychological factors that might account for the differencebetween our findings and the results of the Festingeret al. study. We argue that reactions to prophetic failure are shaped less by psychological forces than by social circumstances existing at the time of disconfirmation.

On April29, 1980,members of a smallBaha'i sect' enteredfallout sheltersto awaita thermonuclearwar thatwould fulfillthe pro- pheciesof Revelation.In exactlyone hourthey believed one-third of mankindwould perishin the holocaust. Duringthe next20 yearsthey expected the world to be furtherravaged by starvation and disease,worldwide revolution, and naturaldisasters caused by the Earth's shiftingcrust. Finally,in the year 2000, God's

AUTHORS' NOTE: An earlier version of this article was presented at the 1981 annual meeting of the Society for the Scientific Study of Religion in Baltimore, Maryland.

SOCIOLOGICAL PERSPECTIVES, Vol. 26 No. 2, April 1983 137-158 o 1983 PacificSociological Assn.

137

This content downloaded from 150.131.192.151 on Tue, 4 Mar 2014 11:47:13 AM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions 138 SOCIOLOGICAL PERSPECTIVES / APRIL 1983

Kingdomwould be establishedon Earth and a thousandyears of peace would ensue. About one monthbefore April 29 we began a participant- observerstudy of thisgroup. Although the projecthas become an ongoingaffair, our originalintent was to replicatethe classic studyby Festinger, Riecken, and Schachter(1956) of thereactions to disconfirmedprophecy. Festinger and his colleaguesinfiltrated a millennialflying saucer cult to testthe hypothesis that discon- firmationof theleader's prophecy would result in increasedcon- victionand heightenedefforts to recruitnew believers. They argued thatmembers of apocalypticgroups experience severe cognitive dissonance when theirprophecies fail. If believershave made strongcommitments based on theirfaith, they cannot easily aban- don theirbeliefs. Instead, their only recourseis to seek conso- nantinformation, including the social supportof fellowbelievers, and thatshould entail increased efforts to persuadenonbelievers to accept the faith. Festingeret al. testedtheir hypothesis by observingthe reactionsof a millennialcult (the Lake Citygroup) when the expected catastrophefailed to happen. The group'sleader, a womanthey called Marian Keech,had receivedseveral messages from a space beingnamed Sananda warningher about a devastatingflood that wouldinundate much of NorthAmerica on a particulardate. Even afterher prophecyfailed, the most committedmembers main- tainedtheir beliefs. Mrs. Keech claimedthat the world had been savedby their faith, and shepointed to earthquakesin otherparts of theglobe to provethat disastrous upheavals had reallyoccurred, althoughnot in themanner she expected.She also made several morepredictions in rapid succession,all disconfirmed,in what appearedto be a desperateattempt to save face.Most important, she and herfollowers began to proselytealmost immediately -a findingthat is especiallyremarkable in viewof thefact that Mrs. Keechhad beenrelatively unconcerned about spreadingSananda's messagesprior to the disconfirmation. However,a subsequentstudy of a millennialChristian sect called the Churchof the TrueWord failedto supportthe pros- elytinghypothesis. Hardyck and Braden(1962) found that Church

This content downloaded from 150.131.192.151 on Tue, 4 Mar 2014 11:47:13 AM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions Balch et al. / WHEN THE BOMBS DROP 139 membersdid not attemptto win new convertsafter an expected nuclearattack failed to occur. Out of 135 believerswho entered falloutshelters, 103 remained underground for 42 daysuntil Mrs. Shepard,their prophet, told themto come out. Testimoniesand follow-upinterviews indicated that theyremained firm in their beliefs.Members claimed that God had merelybeen testingtheir faithand usingthem as an exampleto warnan apatheticworld. Mrs. Shepard'sfollowers continued to believethat war was imminent,but theymade no effortsto proselyteafter they emerged fromtheir shelters, even though they had numerousopportunities to do so. Consequently,the evidenceconcerning the urgeto proselyte afterprophetic failure is contradictory.Hardyck and Bradensug- gestedthat Festinger et al. failedto specifyall theconditions under whichproselyting will occur. Here we attemptto build on their conclusionby arguingthat reactionsto disconfirmedprophecy depend on the social contextin whichdisconfirmation is exper- ienced. Because adaptation to propheticfailure is a collective process(Zygmunt, 1972), any theory that neglects the role of inter- actionalvariables will have limited value in explaininghow millennial movementsreact when theirprophecies fail.

DATA COLLECTION

Unfortunately,most accounts of millennialmovements do not providemuch information about groupdynamics at themoment of disconfirmation.The best way to get this informationis to be on thescene when prophetic failure occurs, but outsiders rarely havethat opportunity. They must rely on after-the-factinterviews, as Hardyckand Bradendid, or historicalrecords, which are often unreliableor incomplete.Like Festingeret al., however,we were luckyenough to witnessfirsthand the momentof truth. We firstheard about theapocalyptic sect known as theBaha'is Underthe Provisions of theCovenant (BUPC) abouttwo months beforethe impending cataclysm.2 The little-knownsect based in Missoula, Montana,was catapultedinto the headlineswhen the

This content downloaded from 150.131.192.151 on Tue, 4 Mar 2014 11:47:13 AM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions 140 SOCIOLOGICAL PERSPECTIVES / APRIL 1983 local paper exposed a nuclearpreparedness group as a BUPC organization.Known as SAFE, standingfor Shelter and Fall-Out Education,the group has beenorganized by the BUPC to upgrade Missoula's falloutshelters and educateMissoulians about nuclear survival. With the permissionof the sect's leader, Dr. Leland Jensen (knownas "Doc" to his followers),we began participatingin all mannerof BUPC activities.These included"feasts" held every 19 days accordingto the Baha'i calendar,"firesides" where the BUPC teachthe faith to "prospectivemembers," and "deepenings" intendedto exploreBaha'i writingsin greaterdepth. In the hec- tic days beforeApril 29 we spentlong hourscollating pages for Doc's latest manuscript(Jensen, 1980) and helpingmembers preparetheir fallout shelters. When the fateful day finallyarrived, we joined believersin threedifferent underground shelters, and we returnedon May 7 afterDoc resetthe date forthe catastrophe. Duringthe next six monthswe interviewed41 of Doc's followers, includingbelievers in Wyoming,Colorado, and Arkansas. In additionto theseformal contacts, we have spenta considerable amount of timewith the BUPC in more casual settings.

A CLOSER LOOK AT THE BAHA'IS UNDER THE PROVISIONS OF THE COVENENT

Anydiscussion of the BUPC mustbegin with Doc, thejovial 67-year-oldchiropractor who predictedthe cataclysmfor April 29. Once an internationallyknown Baha'i teacher,Doc was expelledfrom Baha'i Faith in 1960 for aligninghimself with a schismatic leader named Mason Remey. Believing that a catastrophicflood was about to inundatemuch of the United States,Mason urgedhis followersto moveto highground in the RockyMountains, and in 1964Doc opened a chiropracticoffice in Missoula. Because of oppositionwithin Mason's following stemmingfrom a 1963doctrinal dispute, he becamediscouraged withthe human side of thefaith and stoppedteaching altogether shortlyafter moving to Montana.

This content downloaded from 150.131.192.151 on Tue, 4 Mar 2014 11:47:13 AM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions Balch et al. / WHEN THE BOMBS DROP 141

In 1969Doc was convictedof performinga "lewd and lascivious act" on a 15-year-oldpatient, and despitehis claimsof a frame- up, he was sentencedto 20 yearsin the statepenitentiary. Not long afterhis arrival,Doc says he was visitedin his cell by an angel who informedhim of his spiritualidentity. Drawing on a remarkableset of parallelsbetween events in his lifeand certain Biblical prophecies,Doc issueda proclamationin 1971claiming to be Joshua,the high priest prophesied in Zechariah3. According to Doc, Joshua is the returnof Jesus who will establishthe Kingdomafter the holocaust. Eventually Doc claimedseveral other Biblical identities,including the Lamb and the SeventhAngel describedin Revelation. Once the angel liftedthe veil fromhis eyes,Doc was able to comprehendthe symbolismof the Scriptures.He began tying togetherdiverse strands of Biblical prophecy,Baha'i teachings, and pyramidology,a fascinationdating from his childhood.All the evidencepointed to the same inescapable conclusionthat nuclearcatastrophe was imminent.As earlyas 1971Doc predicted thatthe war would beginin 1980,caused by a conflictbetween the superpowersover Middle East oil. Afterthe fourwaves of destruction(Revelation 7:1) had cleansed the worldof evil and apostasy,Doc believedthat the remainderof mankindwould embracethe BUPC faithand peace and harmonywould prevail forthe nextthousand years. Shortlyafter his visitation, Doc beganholding firesides for his fellowinmates. Twice a week20 to 30 attendedhis meetings,and bythe time he was paroledin 1973Doc had recruiteda small group of highlycommitted believers. Some of hisconverts became effec- tiveteachers in theirown right.One of Doc's firstrecruits was largelyresponsible for establishinga branch of the faith in Sheridan,Wyoming, where about 15 people eventuallybecame followers. Afterhis releaseDoc began spreadinghis messageoutside the prisonwalls. In 1978 he took an extendedtrip throughout the midwesternand RockyMountain states trying to convertmany of Mason Remey'sfollowers, and his effortsled to the establish- mentof smallBUPC groupsin Durango,Colorado and Ft. Smith,

This content downloaded from 150.131.192.151 on Tue, 4 Mar 2014 11:47:13 AM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions 142 SOCIOLOGICAL PERSPECTIVES / APRIL 1983

Arkansas.It is impossibleto say how manybelievers there were on theeve of April29, 1980,but roughly150 people in Montana, Wyoming,Colorado, and Arkansasmade plans to enterfallout shelters"when the bombs dropped" (one of Doc's favorite expressions).3 Priorto April29 theBUPC werea recruitment-orientedgroup whose lives revolvedaround teachingthe faith.Teaching was expectedand Doc claimed that proselytingwould be rewarded witha high stationin God's kingdom.To that end the BUPC organizedthe CommunicationsClub, a group modeled after Toastmasters,to improvepublic speakingskills, and theycom- piled a "teacher'smanual" explaininghow to teach the faithto nonbelievers.Recruitment proceeded almost entirelythrough friendshipnetworks and familyties (Stark and Bainbridge,1980). Personsinterested in learningabout the faithwere invited to a seriesof firesides,usually held in a member'shome, where they weresystematically introduced to Doc's teachingsas well as the basic principlesof theBaha'i faith.Although we haveno, reliable figures,it appearsthat most of thosewho completedthe fireside sequence became believers. In 1979Doc determinedthat the bombs would drop at precisely 5:55 p.m. MountainDaylight Time. As thedate approached,his followersstepped up theirefforts to preparefor the holocaust. Theirmost ambitious undertaking was SAFE. Recognizingthat theorganization might be discreditedif it becameidentified with a group of "religiousfanatics," they preferred to keep its connectionwith Doc a secret.Under the auspices of SAFE members taughtclasses on sheltermanagement and radiologicalmonitoring, and theyprinted thousands of leafletsexplaining what to do in the eventof a nuclearattack. SAFE disbandedafter it was exposedas a BUPC project,and because of lack of publicsupport, its membersabandoned their plansto improvethe community's shelters. With the date less than two monthsaway, even teachingthe faithdiminished as Doc's followersturned their energies to buildingand stockingtheir privateshelters. There were eight in theMissoula area, including a ''communityshelter" for members who could not affordtheir

This content downloaded from 150.131.192.151 on Tue, 4 Mar 2014 11:47:13 AM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions Balch et al. / WHEN THE BOMBS DROP 143

own. The major focus of group activityduring the last month was the printshop. Doc owned a small printingbusiness that printedcommercial work by day and Doc's manuscriptsby night. Day afterday theBUPC assembledpages until2:00 or 3:00 a.m. in a franticeffort to publish 10,000copies of Doc's latestbook beforeApril 29. Meanwhile,the public was at least vaguely aware that the Baha'is were preparingfor Armageddon. Doc receivedcon- siderablelocal newspaperand TV coverage,and the Associated Press carried several stories about his predictions.Although membersoccasionally complained about media bias, theygen- erallybelieved the coverage was fair.In Missoula therewas some ridiculein the formof jokes on theradio, impromptu doomsday parties,and a fewcrank calls to believers,but overallthe atmo- spherecould best be describedas indifferent. Finally,on the nightof April 28, about 80 believersmet at a potluckfeast in Missoula forthe last timebefore Armageddon. They joked and laughed and enjoyedtheir meal as if nothing unusual wereabout to happen. Wereit not forthe speechesthat followed,an outsiderwould not haveguessed that these cheerful people wereexpecting nuclear warheads to strikewithin 24 hours. The festivitiesconcluded around 10:00p.m. and thenthe faithful dispersedto theirrespective shelters to awaitthe missiles that would usher in the new age.

SUITABILITY OF THE BAHA'I SECT FOR TESTING THE FESTINGER HYPOTHESIS

Festingeret al. specifiedfive conditions that must be metbefore propheticfailure can be expectedto be followedby increased convictionand vigorousproselyting. According to the first,a belief mustbe heldwith deep convictionand itmust have some relevance foraction. Althoughthe BUPC includedmany fringe members who wereskeptical about Doc's prediction,the vast majority took it veryseriously. Only a fewexpressed doubts to any of us, and interviewswith ex-members who leftthe groupbefore April 29

This content downloaded from 150.131.192.151 on Tue, 4 Mar 2014 11:47:13 AM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions 144 SOCIOLOGICAL PERSPECTIVES / APRIL 1983 confirmour impressionthat the level of beliefwas veryhigh. Doc's predictionobviously had directimplications for their behavior. Even truebelievers would perishif theydid not preparefor the holocaust,and the factthat they made extensivepreparations is strongevidence that membersexpected the bombs to drop on April29. The secondcondition is closelytied to thefirst. Believers must make irreversiblecommitments based on theirconviction. Doc was so confidentthat he stakedthe validityof all his teachings on the accuracyof his prediction.For example,in a small book entitledThe Most MightyDocument (1979: 61-62) he posed the followingquestion:

DOES YOUR RELIGION (sect or denomination)tell you the "Day and theHour" forthe oncoming thermo-nuclear holocaust in whicha thirdof mankindare to be killed,so thatyou can be 100 milesfrom a thermo-nuclearblast (Rev. 14:20)? If it doesn't it lacks Divine Guidance to save you [italicsin original].

Thereis no doubt mostbelievers made enormouscommitments. Theyorganized SAFE to alertthe communityto the dangersof radioactivefallout, and theybuilt theirown sheltersat great expense,often running up hugebills which they had troublepaying afterthe 29th. Virtually all of themattempted to persuadefriends and relativesto acceptthe faith or at leasttake precautions. Some wroteto the local paper explainingtheir beliefs; a fewwrote pamphletsabout the faith,which Doc printedand distributed along withhis own manuscripts.Many believershad movedto Missoula, in some cases fromalmost 2000 milesaway, just to be near Doc when the war began. The thirdcondition is thatthe prediction must be sufficiently specificto be refutedunequivocally. By specifyingthat the bombs would drop at precisely5:55 p.m. MountainDaylight Time on April 29, 1980, Doc clearlyleft no room forhedging. The fourthcondition requires undeniable evidence that the predictedevents did not occur. This, too, was quite clear. No bombs fellon April29; Doc's followerswere well aware that the day passed withoutincident.

This content downloaded from 150.131.192.151 on Tue, 4 Mar 2014 11:47:13 AM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions Balch et al. / WHEN THE BOMBS DROP 145

Finally,there must be social supportfor the apocalyptic belief. Festingeret al. added thisprovision because they felt that believers wouldbe unable to withstandthe devastingimpact of disconfir- mationif they did not haveat leastsome degreeof supportfrom others.The BUPC metthis condition as well.They were a close- knitgroup, bound by a singleundisputed leader, a sharedset of beliefs,family and friendshipties, and regularsocial interaction. The believersreferred to themselvesas "the friends"or "thecommunity,"and some comparedthemselves to an extendedfamily, an analogythat we foundquite appropriate. The sectconsistituted a relativelyexclusive social world where close ties with nonbelievers wereunusual. In short,the BUPC metall fiveconditions specified by Festinger et al. How well,then, did theirbehavior following April 29 con- formto the hypothesisthat conviction and recruitmentefforts would increaseafter disconfirmation?

REACTIONS TO DISCONFIRMATION

Contraryto thehypothesis, the failure of Doc's predictiondid not strengthenthe believers'convictions, nor did it producean increasein proselyting.In fact,just theopposite occurred. It took severalmonths before some members would admit to us just how badly shakenthey had been when the bombs did not drop on April 29. Althoughreactions varied from shelter to shelter,most believers at firstappeared relativelyunconcerned, as if the 29th had not been an importantevent. Events in the communityshelter pro- vide a good example. The appointed time appeared to pass unnoticedeven though there had been a highdegree of tension earlierin theday. Members continued to workon last-minutepro- jects, but the atmospherebecame increasinglysubdued as 5:55 approachedand passed withoutincident. Since the shelterdoor stillwas not securelyin place, it was easy forbelievers to slip out quietly,and manytook advantageof theopportunity. Those who remainedsaid little.Around 8:30 p.m. a largegroup, including

This content downloaded from 150.131.192.151 on Tue, 4 Mar 2014 11:47:13 AM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions 146 SOCIOLOGICAL PERSPECTIVES / APRIL 1983 thesenior author, went out fordinner at a nearbyrestaurant. No one seemed concernedabout the possibilitythat Doc's prediction mighthave been off by a fewhours. In fact,no one said anythingabout thebombs. Much of themeal was spentin silence brokenonly by occasional small talk. Back in the shelterthey watchedtelevision or read quietly,saying almost nothinguntil 12:15a.m., when the shelter manager casually asked a smallgroup of believerswhat they thought about the unexpected turn of events. However,there was littlediscussion, and by 1:00 a.m. the lights wereout and the shelterwas completelysilent. The nextfew days were undoubtedly the most anomic the BUPC had everexperienced. The situationcould best be describedas an informationalvacuum. Doc's followerswere scattered over four states,and evenin the Missoula area therewere several shelters, threeof themabout 30 milesout of town.Members were even morewidely dispersed than thisimplies because manystayed at home on theassumption that they would have about eighthours to seek shelterbefore the falloutarrived from West Coast target areaslike Portland and Seattle.Although their shelters were equip- ped withCB radios,Doc had notbothered to makespecific plans forkeeping in contactwith his followers,nor had he specified any particularlength of time that membersshould remain underground.He merelyassumed thatthey would need to stay thereabout two weeks.In Missoula some of thebelievers stayed foras long as threedays, but mosthad come out by the evening of April30. In thecommunity shelter about two-thirdsof those who had been therebefore 5:55 p.m. on the 29th had leftby midnight. Doc's firstresponse to disconfirmationwas to resetthe time for6:11 a.m. on May 7. Citinga passagein Revelation,he claimed the reason forthe delay was "to give the peoples of the world a chanceto hearthe voice of theirsavior and be saved,or to con- demnhim and go intothe fire." However, word of thenew predic- tioncirculated informally by wordof mouthbecause Doc made no systematiceffort to get the messageout. In fact,the BUPC did not meet again as a group untilMay 16. Duringthis period group activities stopped almost completely. We neversaw morethan two or threepeople at the printshop,

This content downloaded from 150.131.192.151 on Tue, 4 Mar 2014 11:47:13 AM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions Balch et al. / WHEN THE BOMBS DROP 147 and workon thecommunity shelter was halfheartedat best.The sheltercommittee met at leasttwice, but mostof theenthusiastic volunteerswe had observedbefore April 29 had disappeared.The groupbecame decidedly less visible as believerswithdrew into their privatespaces, and observationsuddenly became verydifficult. Members who had once been extremelyopen to us cooled noticeably.For example,on the seniorauthor's first visit to the communityshelter after the 29th,most of the believersavoided eye contact,gave brief,businesslike replies to questions,and generallyacted as if he werenot there.Although Doc remained friendlyand open, we generallyfelt like intruders. By May 4 Doc had added a four-pageaddendum, printed in red,to his manuscriptexplaining what really happened on April 29. Citingnumerous phone calls fromreporters as faraway as Australia,he claimed to have fulfilledthe prophecyof Revela- tion 16:17and 18 in whichthe SeventhAngel pours his "bowl of wrath"into the air. This, he said,refers to theworldwide media coveragehis message received on the29th. In thisaddendum Doc also drewa parallelbetween himself and Noah, claimingthat the Old Testamentprophet had been similarlymistaken the first time he predictedthe deluge. He citedthe Koran, which says that Noah made threepredictions before the flood finallyoccurred, and Matthew24:37, whichprophsesies that "The comingof the Son of Man willrepeat what happened in Noah's time."This explanation quickly became the most widely cited reason for the disconfirmation. Whilethe red pages werebeing added to thebook, Doc received a phonecall thatprovided him with still another explanation for April29. The caller,a formalNaval officer, claimed that the Soviet Union had launcheda spysatellite armed with nuclear warheads at the precisemoment Doc had predicted.4Believing that the UnitedStates considered this an act of war,Doc announcedthat this action would set in motion a chain of eventsthat would culminatein the holocaust,now set forMay 7. In spite of Doc's explanation,the BUPC appeared very demoralized.Most memberswe interviewedexpressed skepticism about Doc's account of the spy satellite,although none would ruleit our entirely, and we rarelyheard anyone mention it in casual

This content downloaded from 150.131.192.151 on Tue, 4 Mar 2014 11:47:13 AM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions 148 SOCIOLOGICAL PERSPECTIVES / APRIL 1983 conversations.The parallelwith Noah continuedto be the most popularexplanation for the disconfirmation, but some members who had once presentedthemselves to us as truebelievers now insistedthat they had alwaysbeen skepticalabout Doc's prediction.Many of themcited Matthew 25:13, which says that no man knowsthe day or the hour when the Son of Man will return. The May 7 date failedto rekindleenthusiasm. Most members toldus theydid notbelieve the bombs would drop then, and hardly anyone volunteeredto work in the printshop or community shelter.Fewer people made plansto reentera shelter,and thecom- munityshelter was almost emptywhen the date arrived.After the7th also passeduneventfully Doc triedone lasttime, suggesting thatthe bombs mightdrop on eitherMay 22 or 23, but by then no one (to our knowledge)believed him, and even Doc later admittedto us that he had been "graspingat straws." Withina fewdays after April 29 we began hearingcomments about increasingquarrels and familyproblems in the group, includinga brieffight between two membersof theshelter com- mittee. We witnessed several flareups ourselves. Most were triggeredby minorincidents like borrowinga tool withoutper- mission,not returningsomething to its properplace, or leaving a shelterdoor open. On May 16 the Missoula groupfinally gathered for their first feastsince April 29. Normallythe responsibilityfor feastsfell to Doc's followers,but this time no one volunteered,so Doc organizedthe gathering himself. Thirty-six believers attended, not countingDoc and his wife,and almost all of themwere core memberswho had been extremelyactive in the faithprior to the 29th. Superficiallythere was no evidenceof the tension and demoralizationwe have described.The atmospherewas friendly and cheerful,and not once did we hear anyonemention April 29 or thethermonuclear war, even though the third date was only one week away. Aftera fewprayers about persecution,suffering, and standing fastin thefaith, Doc addressedthe group. Besides explaining what happenedon April 29, he criticizedhis followersfor bickering and shirkingtheir responsibilities. Using himselfas an example

This content downloaded from 150.131.192.151 on Tue, 4 Mar 2014 11:47:13 AM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions Balch et al. / WHEN THE BOMBS DROP 149 of courage in the face of adversity,he exortedthem to remain trueto thefaith, but we failedto observeany signs of enthusiasm duringhis talk. Of particularsignificance were Doc's comments on proselyting.As ifeven he did notthink the bombs would drop on May 22 or 23, he declaredthat the war would not beginuntil the BUPC had recruitedthe 144,000prophesied in Revelation. To help spreadthe messagehe had broughta box of his books and urgedmembers to distributecopies all overtown. Doc was more forcefulabout proselytingthan we had everseen him. In some of thisstrongest language he exhortedthem to "Rise and shine!Establish the Kingdom!Teach as you neverhave before!" DespiteDoc's pep talk,no one took anybooks and hardlyany teachingoccurred throughout the summer. To our knowledgenone of Doc's followerswas everapproached by the press,and none of themsought media attention. Firesides were discontinued, and most believerskept a low profilein town. Usually theytold us that theydid not mentionthe faithto anyoneunless someone asked themabout it. Even Doc's effortsat spreadingthe faith weresubdued. He issueda pressrelease, composed a lengthyletter to thelocal paperwhich was neverpublished, and answeredques- tionsfrom dozens of reporterswho calledafter the 29th; but otherwise he did nothingto get his message out to the world. Attendanceat feastscontinued to drop overthe summer until it hit an all-timelow of 11 on September27. The BUPC even missedtwo feastdates because, again, no one volunteered.There werethree major reasonsfor the small attendancefigures. First, some of the 80 who attendedthe April 29 feastwere not com- mittedbelievers, but friendsand relativeswho knewrelatively little about Doc and histeachings. None of thesepeople everreturned. Second, severalmembers moved out of town,ostensibly to find work,but oftento escape what theydescribed as an oppressive atmospherewithin the group poisoned by internal conflict. Even thoughthe BUPC stronglycondemned the practice of backbiting, theamount of maliciousgossip that circulated after the 29th was considerable. Doc himselfcontributed to the problem. For example,during a feastwe attended,he openlyquestioned his followersabout alleged drug use by threemembers who were

This content downloaded from 150.131.192.151 on Tue, 4 Mar 2014 11:47:13 AM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions 150 SOCIOLOGICAL PERSPECTIVES / APRIL 1983

rumoredto have joined a rivalsect. The thirdreason forpoor attendanceat feastsis whatsome members characterized as "burn- out." Theyhad workedfeverishly and exhaustedtheir resources preparingfor the 29th, and now withthe date postponedindef- initely,they preferred to returnto some semblanceof normalcy. However,the poor turnoutat feastsdid not reflectwidespread defectionfrom the faith.For our purposes defectioncan be definedas rejectionof the formerlyheld beliefthat Doc is the "promisedone" prophesiedin Zechariah. Since some of those who made plans to entera shelterdid noteven know much about Doc, theycould hardlybe classifiedas defectorswhen they failed to attendthe feastsafter April 29. If we restrictour attentionto those who genuinelybelieved in Doc, two patternsbecome apparent.In the Missoula group we foundonly fourmembers who could be classifiedas defectorssix monthsafter the 29th. Threeof themhad been centralfigures and theirdefection came as a shock to the restof the group.While the defectorsrefused to rejectthe possibilitythat Doc mightultimately be right,they each expressedserious reservations about his messianicclaims. Otherwise,everyone in the Missoula groupcontinued to profess belief in Doc, althoughmany admittedthat theyoccasionally entertaineddoubts. It appearsthat even those who failedto attend feastsover the summer continued to believe.On theother hand, almostall thebelievers outside Montana eventually rejected Doc's teachings.Everyone in theArkansas group defected, as did most of the believersin Colorado and Wyoming.To our knowledge only threemembers of the Colorado group remainedsteadfast by the end of the summer,and possiblytwo in Wyoming.5 During the summerwe began to hear a new themein both formalinterviews and casual conversationswith believers. The BUPC explainedthat the communityhad been so preoccupied with preparationsfor the war beforeApril 29 that theyhad neglectedthe basic Baha'i teachings.They spoke less and less about Doc and his predictionsand increasinglyabout the need to livetheir lives according to Baha'i principles.The best wayto teachthe faith, they claimed, was to becomea livingexample for others.As one womanexplained, "I thinkwe all made a mistake.

This content downloaded from 150.131.192.151 on Tue, 4 Mar 2014 11:47:13 AM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions Balch et al. / WHEN THE BOMBS DROP 151

We got too caughtup in the physical.We weren'tready for the warbecause spirituallynone of us werestrong enough." As early as May 14 we noticedthat hardly anyone still used the familiar expression,"when the bombs drop." Although they all continued to believethat war was inevitable,their personal predictions varied from"within a year" to "the turnof the century." We also detecteda new fatalistictrend. Once obsessed with preparedness,many believers adopted the attitude that they would surviveif God meantthem to. Theylost the communityshelter whenthey could no longerpay the renton the warehousebase- mentwhere it was located,and mostof thegroup's private shelters, includingDoc's, wereat leastpartly dismantled. Only two BUPC in Wyomingremained active in civil defensework, but one of themclaimed she no longerbelieved in Doc. For his part,Doc continuedto revisehis explanationsfor the failureof theApril 29 prediction,and in a lengthynew introduc- tion to his book he declared that the seven-yearTribulation describedin Revelationhad commencedon the predicteddate. Althoughhe continuedto insistthat war was imminent,Doc claimedthat the fourwinds of destruction(Revelation 7:1) were beingheld back untilthe 144,000had been recruited.However, he set no new date forthe catastropheand refusedto be pinned down even to an approximatetime. Despite Doc's concernfor teaching the faith,he dismissedhis followers'inactivity as a temporaryperiod of "quiescence,"and subsequentobservations of thegroup in 1982have born out his assessment.Teaching has graduallyresumed, and a fewof Doc's new generationof believershave become energeticproselyters. Nevertheless,the size of Doc's active followingremains small, and thenew members generally appear far more enthusiastic about teachingthan those who accepted the faithprior to April 29.

DISCUSSION

Contraryto thetheory advanced by Festingeret al., we found no evidenceof increasedconviction or proselytingin thefirst six

This content downloaded from 150.131.192.151 on Tue, 4 Mar 2014 11:47:13 AM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions 152 SOCIOLOGICAL PERSPECTIVES / APRIL 1983 months after disconfirmation.Instead, there is considerable evidencethat the BUPC's faithwas badly shakenby the failure of Doc's prediction.Defection was widespreadin theout-of-state groups;and evenin Missoula,where virtually everyone continued to professbelief, members resisted Doc's effortsto resumepros- elyting.This findingis especiallydevastating for the Festinger hypothesisbecause the Missoula group had a long traditionof activerecruitment before April 29. In an attemptto explainwhy members of the TrueWord sect did notproselyte after Mrs. Shepard's prophecy was disconfirmed, Hardykand Bradensuggested that two additional variables need to be consideredin orderto understanda group'sreaction to propheticfailure. The firstis the degreeof public ridicule.Accord- ing to Hardykand Braden,the more a group is beratedfor its beliefsby outsiders,the moreits membersshould feelthe need to justifytheir position by proselyting. Compared with the Lake Citygroup, which was ridiculedunmercifully by prankstersand thelocal papers,the BUPC and True Wordgroup had an easy timewith nonbelievers. In bothcases thepress was generallyfair and the public seemed indifferentto the episode. The second variableis the levelof social supportenjoyed by believers.While Festinger et al. arguedthat some degreeof sup- port is essentialto preventdefection, Hardyk and Braden con- tended that the consensual validation provided by a strong communityof believerscould reduce dissonance to thepoint where it would be unnecessaryto recruitadditional members. That is, theurge to proselytefollowing disconfirmation should be greater in groupsproviding weak supportthan in groupsthat are highly supportive.Marian Keech's Lake Citycult was a relativelynew, loose-knitgroup that lacked a well-integratedset of beliefs.For awhileMrs. Keech even had to vie for leadershipwith another memberwho claimedto receivemessages from none otherthan theCreator Himself. By contrast,the True Word sect was a highly cohesivegroup with undisputedleaders and a coherentbelief system,so it should have providedgreater social supportin the face of disconfirmation.

This content downloaded from 150.131.192.151 on Tue, 4 Mar 2014 11:47:13 AM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions Balch et al. / WHEN THE BOMBS DROP 153

The BUPC case is less clear-cutbut still consistent with Hardyk and Braden'shypothesis. Although the Missoula grouphad been relatively"tight" before April 29, it was quicklysplintered by gossip and hostility,and most memberswithdrew from organ- ized group activities.Is it accurateto say,then, that the BUPC enjoyeda highdegree of mutualsupport? We thinkit is, butonly with some clarification.First, despite the quarreling,most membershad formedstrong ties withother believers that were notaffected by the group's internal disputes. Second, and perhaps more important,most believershad strongidentities as BUPC thattranscended their commitment to Doc's prediction.For them thefaith offered both an all-embracingtheodicy and an eminently desirableplan forliving. While most had been attractedto the faithby its apocalypticorientation, they subsequently acquired a firmgrounding in a coherentbody of Baha'i teachingsdating back over100 years. As a result,Doc's followerswere able to cope withdisconfirmation by shifting the focus of theirlives away from Doc and placing greateremphasis on the fundamentalsof the BUPC faith.Members of theLake Citygroup lacked this option because theirbelief in Mrs. Keech's predictionwas thesole basis fortheir identity as members. Thus Hardykand Braden'spost factumhypotheses appear to explainwhy both the TrueWord group and the BUPC failedto proselyteafter disconfirmation. Yet thereremains a puzzling anomalyin our finding.Doc's followerswere severely demoralized bydisconfirmation, while members of theother two groups pro- claimedgreat victories for their faith. In boththe Lake Cityand TrueWord groups, testimonies and follow-upinterviews indicated thatdisconfirmation may have evenstrengthened belief.6 What accountsfor the difference? Comparison of thethree groups sug- geststhat the social contextin whichdisconfirmation is exper- ienced mightbe the criticalfactor determining the reactionto propheticfailure. In the Festingerstudy Mrs. Keech and most of her followers weretogether in thesame house whendisconfirmation occurred. Withinhours after her prophecy failed Mrs. Keech offeredwhat became the group's"official" explanation. The worldhad been

This content downloaded from 150.131.192.151 on Tue, 4 Mar 2014 11:47:13 AM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions 154 SOCIOLOGICAL PERSPECTIVES / APRIL 1983 spared fromdestruction because of theirfaith. The next day membersconfronted numerous reporters and othervisitors who came to the house to hear how Mrs. Keech would explain the failureof her prediction. The situationwas verysimilar in theTrue Word group. Although therewere several shelters, each group had a strongleader and the shelterswere connected by an intercomsystem that allowed the leadersto deal withquestions, doubts, and dissentas soon as theyappeared. We are not told how long it took Mrs. Shepard to rationalizethe failureof her prophecy,but her explanation obviouslycould havebeen communicatedto all of her followers veryrapidly. When members of theTrue Word sect finally emerged fromtheir shelters, they also confrontedthe press as a group,and the leadersheld an impromptunews conference to explainwhy the attack had not occurred. On theother hand, the BUPC experienceddisconfirmation as a widelydispersed collection of smallgroups that lacked a well- thought-outplan forstaying in contactwith each other.Doc made no systematiceffort to communicatewith his followersimmedi- atelyafter disconfirmation, and hisexplanations - suggestedand revisedover a periodof months- weredisseminated haphazardly byword of mouth.Members never confronted representatives of theoutside world as a group;even in Missoula theydid not meet again for over two weeks afterthe 29th. What we have hereare threegroups with enormous material and psychologicalinvestments in a millennialdream which sud- denlycollapsed. It is hardto imaginea more ambiguoussitua- tion than the firstuneasy moments after disconfirmation. It is a well-establishedprinciple that the moreambiguous the situa- tion, the greaterthe demand for informationin the formof rationalexplanations and guidelinesfor behavior, especially when thesituation has importantimplications for action (Allport and Postman, 1974; Festinger,1954; Shibutani, 1966; Turnerand Killian,1972). In his earlytheory of social comparisonFestinger (1954) postulatedthat there is a basic drivein humanbeings to evaluatetheir opinions and beliefs.When objective reality checks are unavailable,people tend to relyon othersas pointsof reference.

This content downloaded from 150.131.192.151 on Tue, 4 Mar 2014 11:47:13 AM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions Balch et al. / WHEN THE BOMBS DROP 155

Since Doc was the undisputedspiritual authority for the BUPC, his followersnaturally turned to himfor guidance, but he did little to fillthe void. Doc's failureto act decisivelyand the group's lack of organ- ized communicationchannels conspired to perpetuatethe ambi- guitycaused by propheticfailure. Without the imminenceof catastropheto focus theirlives, the goal of establishingGod's Kingdomsuddenly seemed remote and the means forachieving it unclear.Under those circumstances it is not surprisingthat the membershipbecame demoralized. Small-groupstudies (e.g., Cohen, 1959;Raven and Rietsema,1956) have demonstrated that ambiguousgoals and uncertaintyabout how to achievethem are relatedto personalinsecurity, emotional tension, weakened attrac- tionto thegroup, loss of motivationto accomplishcollective tasks, and decliningconformity to groupnorms. Compared to theLake Cityand TrueWord groups, the BUPC experiencedthe ambiguity of disconfirmationfor a longerperiod, and also appearedfar more discouragedby the failure of theirprophecy. Significantly, the Lake Citybelievers who weremost likely to defectwere those who experienceddisconfirmation alone. Much like;Doc's followers,they had to endurethe ambiguityof propheticfailure longer than the believerswho werein the companyof Mrs. Keech. When Doc finallymade a strongpitch for proselyting 17 days afterApril 29, his followerswere already demoralized and a pat- ternof resignation,withdrawal, and internalconflict had been established,so it is easyto understandwhy they failed to respond. Mrs. Keech, on the other hand, immediatelyprovided a clear examplefor the othersby callinga reporterto explainwhat had happened.Given the susceptibilityto social influenceof people caught in highlyambiguous situations,it is possible that the leader's initial reaction to disconfirmationcould determine whetheror not the group engaged in proselytingregardless of social supportor public ridicule. Not onlydid theBUPC enduremore uncertainty, but they never had to confrontthe press as a group. This is a significantdif- ference,because this kind of public meetingis likelyto elicita strongreaffirmation of faith.Members are, in effect,on stage

This content downloaded from 150.131.192.151 on Tue, 4 Mar 2014 11:47:13 AM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions 156 SOCIOLOGICAL PERSPECTIVES / APRIL 1983 in the companyof fellowbelievers before an audienceof skep- tics,and in thatsituation they are likelyto playthe role of believer regardlessof theirreal feelings (Balch, 1980).By enactingthe role, especially before reporters,press photographers,and TV cameramen,they are recommittingthemselves to theirbeliefs. Except forDoc, none of the BUPC was everinduced to recom- mit himselfor herselfin this manner. In conclusion,we believethe data discussedhere suggest that reactionsto disconfirmedprophecy depend on thenature of the social situationin whichprophetic failure occurs. The example of theBUPC revealsthe inadequacy of thepsychological model used by Festingeret al. The theoryof cognitivedissonance is simplyunable to accountfor the complexities we observedin the wake of disconfirmation. Althoughour conclusionsare tentative, three hypotheses appear to be warrantedby the data. First,the morecentral the predic- tionis to one's identityas a believer,the greater the need to con- vince othersafter disconfirmation. Second, membersare most likelyto suffersevere demoralization when their leader failsto providea quickexplanation for their predicament and takedecisive steps to restorethe group's integrity.Third, believers who are forcedto explainthe failureof theirprediction to nonbelievers in public settingsare more likelyto professstrong convictions and attemptto persuadeothers after disconfirmation. As these hypothesessuggest, future research on disconfirmedprophecy should explorethe nature of thebeliever's identity as a member, the reactionsof the group'sleadership to propheticfailure, and thekind of contactthe group has withoutsiders immediately after disconfirmation.

NOTES

1. In thisarticle we followthe definitionsof "cult" and "sect" offeredby Starkand Bainbridge(1979). A secthas a priortie with another religious organization, while a cult is a nonschismaticgroup that lies outsideestablished religious traditions. A millennial movementmay be eithera cult or a sect. It is a religiousgroup that promises imminent

This content downloaded from 150.131.192.151 on Tue, 4 Mar 2014 11:47:13 AM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions Balch et al. / WHEN THE BOMBS DROP 157 collectivesalvation for the faithfulin an earthyparadise that will rise in the wake of apocalypticdestruction brought about by supernaturalmeans (Cohn,-1970: 15). 2. This is the group'sreal name,and membersrefer to themselvesas Baha'is despite the factthat the Baha'i Faith disavowsany connectionwith the sect and objects to its use of the Baha'i name. At the requestof a spokesmanfor the Baha'i Faith, we have used theabbreviation BUPC to preventconfusion. The Baha'i name has been used only in connectionwith the internationalBaha'i Faithor Baha'i writingsthat are fundamen- tal to both groups. 3. Withfew exceptions, Doc's followersare youngworking-class adults. Typical occu- pationsin the Missoula groupinclude gardener, mechanic, tree thinner, mill worker, bus driver,electrician, printer, and welder.Although a fewmembers hold white-collarposi- tions,only two in Missoula could be classifiedas professionals.Doc's wife,an elderin the faith,is also a chiropractor,and anotherwoman is a speechtherapist. Overall their livingstandards are quitemodest. Most ownrelatively few material possessions and hardly any of themare homeowners.All but a feware in theirtwenties, and roughlya third of the active believersare married. 4. In fact,the local paper reportedthat the Soviets did launcha spysatellite on April 29, butwe havebeen unable to verifythe time of day.The callerclaimed to havereceived his information"from the Holy Spirit." 5. Unfortunately,our knowledgeof theout-of-state groups is based on just eightinter- views.While we haveno doubtsabout theoverall direction of theresults in thesegroups, the exact numbersare open to question. 6. We are notentirely convinced by Hardyck and Braden'sdata. Ratherthan observing theTrue Word group directly, they relied entirely on after-the-factinterviews, which are highlysubject to retrospectiveinterpretation and social desirabilityeffects. Members of deviantreligious groups often misrepresent their true feelings to outsiders(e.g., Balch, 1980), and withoutbuilt-in validity checks, especially direct observation, these distor- tionscan easilypass unnoticed.In our studyof theBUPC we foundnumberous instances wheremembers' recollections of theirreactions to disconfirmationdid notjibe withour observationsor the reportsof others.Unfortunately, there is no evidencethat Hardyck and Braden attemptedto verifythe accuracyof theirfindings.

REFERENCES

Allport,G. W. and L. Postman 1947 The Psychologyof Rumor.New York: HenryHolt. Balch, R. W. 1980 "Looking behindthe scenes in a religiouscult: implicationsfor the studyof conversion."Soc. Analysis41: 137-143. Cohen, A. R. 1959 "Situationalstructure, self-esteem, and threat-orientedreactions to power,"in D. Cartwright(ed.) Studiesin Social Power.Ann Arbor: Institutefor Social Research,University of Michigan. Cohn, N. 1970 The Pursuitof the Millennium.New York: OxfordUniv. Press.

This content downloaded from 150.131.192.151 on Tue, 4 Mar 2014 11:47:13 AM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions 158 SOCIOLOGICAL PERSPECTIVES / APRIL 1983

Festinger,L. 1954 "A theoryof social comparisonprocesses." Human Relations5: 117-140. Festinger,L., H. W. Riecken,and S. Schachter 1956 When ProphecyFails. New York: Harper & Row. Hardyck,J. A. and M. Braden 1962 "Prophecyfails again." J. of Abnormaland Social Psychology65: 136-141. JensenL. 1979 The Most MightyDocument. Private printing,available fromllBox 4003, Missoula, MT 59806. Jensen,L. 1980 The SeventhAngel Sounded: Jeane Dixon Was Right.Private printing: Box 4003, Missoula, Montana, 59806. Raven, B. H. and J. Rietsema 1956 "The effectsof variedclarity of groupgoal and grouppath upon theindividual and his relationto his group." Human Relations 10: 29-44. Shibutani,T. 1966 ImprovisedNews: A SociologicalStudy of Rumor.Indianapolis: Bobbs-Merrill. Stark,R. and W. S. Bainbridge 1979 "Of churches,sects, and cults:preliminary concepts for a theoryof religious movements."J. for the ScientificStudy of Religion 18: 117-133. 1980 "'Networksof faith':interpersonal bonds and recruitmentto cultsand sects." Amer. J. of Sociology 85: 1376-1395. Turner,R. N. and L. M. Killian 1972 CollectiveBehavior. Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice-Hall. Zygmunt,J. F. 1972 "When propheciesfail: a theoreticalperspective on thecomparative evidence." Amer. BehavioralScientist 16: 245-268.

RobertW Batchis Professorof Sociologyat theUniversity of Montanain Missoula. His researchon new religionshas appeared in severaljournals, includingthe AmericanBehavioral Scientist, Sociological Analysis,and PsychologyToday. He is currentlyworking on a book about a millennialUFO cult.

GwenFarnsworth is a master'sdegree candidate in thesociology program at the Universityof Montana. Her thesisdeals withdefection from the sect described in thisarticle.

Sue Wilkinsgraduatedfiol71 tie Social U(brkA Progrwan at theUniversity of Motuana in 1982.She is curtrentlvSocial Rbiokertit a residentialltreatliielni centel for aduilt offendersin Missoula.

This content downloaded from 150.131.192.151 on Tue, 4 Mar 2014 11:47:13 AM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions