University of Montana ScholarWorks at University of Montana Sociology Faculty Publications Sociology 4-1983 When The Bombs Drop: Reactions to Disconfirmed Prophecy in a Millennial Sect Robert W. Balch University of Montana - Missoula, [email protected] Gwen Farnsworth Sue Wilkins Follow this and additional works at: https://scholarworks.umt.edu/sociology_pubs Part of the Sociology Commons Let us know how access to this document benefits ou.y Recommended Citation Balch, Robert W.; Farnsworth, Gwen; and Wilkins, Sue, "When The Bombs Drop: Reactions to Disconfirmed Prophecy in a Millennial Sect" (1983). Sociology Faculty Publications. 2. https://scholarworks.umt.edu/sociology_pubs/2 This Article is brought to you for free and open access by the Sociology at ScholarWorks at University of Montana. It has been accepted for inclusion in Sociology Faculty Publications by an authorized administrator of ScholarWorks at University of Montana. For more information, please contact [email protected]. WHEN THE BOMBS DROP Reactionsto DisconfirmedProphecy in a MillennialSect ROBERT W. BALCH GWEN FARNSWORTH SUE WILKINS Universityof Montana This article reports the results of an ethnographic study of a millennial Baha'i sect whose leader predicted that the world would be devastated by nuclear war on April 29, 1980. Shortly before that date we began a participant-observer study of the sect, and during the following eight months we supplemented our observations by interviewingmembers and defectors in the four states where the group's leader had a substantial following. The purpose of the investigation was to replicate the classic study of disconfirmed prophecy reported in When Prophecy Fails by Festinger,Riecken, and Schachter. They found that prophetic disconfir- mation was followed by an increase in conviction and heightened efforts to recruit new believers. We report contrary findings and explore social psychological factors that might account for the differencebetween our findings and the results of the Festingeret al. study. We argue that reac- tions to prophetic failure are shaped less by psychological forces than by social circumstances existing at the time of disconfirmation. On April29, 1980,members of a smallBaha'i sect' enteredfallout sheltersto awaita thermonuclearwar thatwould fulfillthe pro- pheciesof Revelation.In exactlyone hourthey believed one-third of mankindwould perishin the holocaust. Duringthe next20 yearsthey expected the world to be furtherravaged by starvation and disease,worldwide revolution, and naturaldisasters caused by the Earth's shiftingcrust. Finally,in the year 2000, God's AUTHORS' NOTE: An earlier version of this article was presented at the 1981 annual meeting of the Society for the Scientific Study of Religion in Baltimore, Maryland. SOCIOLOGICAL PERSPECTIVES, Vol. 26 No. 2, April 1983 137-158 o 1983 PacificSociological Assn. 137 This content downloaded from 150.131.192.151 on Tue, 4 Mar 2014 11:47:13 AM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions 138 SOCIOLOGICAL PERSPECTIVES / APRIL 1983 Kingdomwould be establishedon Earth and a thousandyears of peace would ensue. About one monthbefore April 29 we began a participant- observerstudy of thisgroup. Although the projecthas become an ongoingaffair, our originalintent was to replicatethe classic studyby Festinger, Riecken, and Schachter(1956) of thereactions to disconfirmedprophecy. Festinger and his colleaguesinfiltrated a millennialflying saucer cult to testthe hypothesis that discon- firmationof theleader's prophecy would result in increasedcon- victionand heightenedefforts to recruitnew believers. They argued thatmembers of apocalypticgroups experience severe cognitive dissonance when theirprophecies fail. If believershave made strongcommitments based on theirfaith, they cannot easily aban- don theirbeliefs. Instead, their only recourseis to seek conso- nantinformation, including the social supportof fellowbelievers, and thatshould entail increased efforts to persuadenonbelievers to accept the faith. Festingeret al. testedtheir hypothesis by observingthe reac- tionsof a millennialcult (the Lake Citygroup) when the expected catastrophefailed to happen. The group'sleader, a womanthey called Marian Keech,had receivedseveral messages from a space beingnamed Sananda warningher about a devastatingflood that wouldinundate much of NorthAmerica on a particulardate. Even afterher prophecyfailed, the most committedmembers main- tainedtheir beliefs. Mrs. Keech claimedthat the worldhad been savedby their faith, and shepointed to earthquakesin otherparts of theglobe to provethat disastrous upheavals had reallyoccurred, althoughnot in themanner she expected.She also made several morepredictions in rapid succession,all disconfirmed,in what appearedto be a desperateattempt to save face.Most important, she and herfollowers began to proselytealmost immediately -a findingthat is especiallyremarkable in viewof thefact that Mrs. Keechhad beenrelatively unconcerned about spreadingSananda's messagesprior to the disconfirmation. However,a subsequentstudy of a millennialChristian sect called the Churchof the TrueWord failedto supportthe pros- elytinghypothesis. Hardyck and Braden(1962) found that Church This content downloaded from 150.131.192.151 on Tue, 4 Mar 2014 11:47:13 AM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions Balch et al. / WHEN THE BOMBS DROP 139 membersdid not attemptto win new convertsafter an expected nuclearattack failed to occur. Out of 135 believerswho entered falloutshelters, 103 remained underground for 42 daysuntil Mrs. Shepard,their prophet, told themto come out. Testimoniesand follow-upinterviews indicated that theyremained firm in their beliefs.Members claimed that God had merelybeen testingtheir faithand usingthem as an exampleto warnan apatheticworld. Mrs. Shepard'sfollowers continued to believethat war was immi- nent,but theymade no effortsto proselyteafter they emerged fromtheir shelters, even though they had numerousopportunities to do so. Consequently,the evidenceconcerning the urgeto proselyte afterprophetic failure is contradictory.Hardyck and Bradensug- gestedthat Festinger et al. failedto specifyall theconditions under whichproselyting will occur. Here we attemptto build on their conclusionby arguingthat reactionsto disconfirmedprophecy depend on the social contextin whichdisconfirmation is exper- ienced. Because adaptation to propheticfailure is a collective process(Zygmunt, 1972), any theory that neglects the role of inter- actionalvariables will have limited value in explaininghow millen- nial movementsreact when theirprophecies fail. DATA COLLECTION Unfortunately,most accounts of millennialmovements do not providemuch information about groupdynamics at themoment of disconfirmation.The best way to get this informationis to be on thescene when prophetic failure occurs, but outsiders rarely havethat opportunity. They must rely on after-the-factinterviews, as Hardyckand Bradendid, or historicalrecords, which are often unreliableor incomplete.Like Festingeret al., however,we were luckyenough to witnessfirsthand the momentof truth. We firstheard about theapocalyptic sect known as theBaha'is Underthe Provisions of theCovenant (BUPC) abouttwo months beforethe impending cataclysm.2 The little-knownsect based in Missoula, Montana,was catapultedinto the headlineswhen the This content downloaded from 150.131.192.151 on Tue, 4 Mar 2014 11:47:13 AM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions 140 SOCIOLOGICAL PERSPECTIVES / APRIL 1983 local paper exposed a nuclearpreparedness group as a BUPC organization.Known as SAFE, standingfor Shelter and Fall-Out Education,the group has beenorganized by the BUPC to upgrade Missoula's falloutshelters and educateMissoulians about nuclear survival. With the permissionof the sect's leader, Dr. Leland Jensen (knownas "Doc" to his followers),we began participatingin all mannerof BUPC activities.These included"feasts" held every 19 days accordingto the Baha'i calendar,"firesides" where the BUPC teachthe faith to "prospectivemembers," and "deepenings" intendedto exploreBaha'i writingsin greaterdepth. In the hec- tic days beforeApril 29 we spentlong hourscollating pages for Doc's latest manuscript(Jensen, 1980) and helpingmembers preparetheir fallout shelters. When the fateful day finallyarrived, we joined believersin threedifferent underground shelters, and we returnedon May 7 afterDoc resetthe date forthe catastrophe. Duringthe next six monthswe interviewed41 of Doc's followers, includingbelievers in Wyoming,Colorado, and Arkansas. In additionto theseformal contacts, we have spenta considerable amount of timewith the BUPC in more casual settings. A CLOSER LOOK AT THE BAHA'IS UNDER THE PROVISIONS OF THE COVENENT Anydiscussion of the BUPC mustbegin with Doc, thejovial 67-year-oldchiropractor who predictedthe cataclysmfor April 29. Once an internationallyknown Baha'i teacher,Doc was expelledfrom Baha'i Faith in 1960 for aligninghimself with a schismatic leader named Mason Remey. Believing that a catastrophicflood was about to inundatemuch of the United States,Mason urgedhis followersto moveto highground in the RockyMountains, and in 1964Doc opened a chiropracticoffice in Missoula. Because of oppositionwithin Mason's following stemmingfrom a 1963doctrinal dispute, he becamediscouraged withthe human side of thefaith and stoppedteaching altogether shortlyafter moving to Montana. This content downloaded from 150.131.192.151 on Tue, 4 Mar 2014 11:47:13 AM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions Balch et al.