Ufos April Fools Drugs & Darwin

SKEPTICISM . SCIENCE . SOCIETY

Vol. 35, No 2. June 2015 ILLOGICAL!

+UFOs April Fools Drugs & Darwin

Australian Skeptics . www.skeptics.com.au

Skeptic_TEST3Cover_Mar15.indd 1 1/05/2015 5:31 pm The Skeptic June 15

Skeptical Groups in Australia

Australian Skeptics Inc – Eran Segev Gold Coast Skeptics – Lilian Derrick www.skeptics.com.au PO Box 8348, GCMC Bundall, QLD 9726 PO Box 20, Beecroft, NSW 2119 Tel: (07) 5593 1882; Fax: (07) 5593 2776 Tel: 02 8094 1894; Mob: 0432 713 195; Fax: (02) 8088 4735 [email protected] [email protected] Contact Lilian to find out news of more events. Sydney Skeptics in the Pub – 6pm first Thursday of each month at the Crown Hotel, cnr Goulburn and Elizabeth Streets in the city (meeting upstairs) Canberra Skeptics – Lauren Cochrane PO Box 555, Civic Square ACT 2608 Dinner meetings are held on a regular basis. http://www.canberraskeptics.org.au Tel: 0408 430 442 [email protected] (general inquiries), [email protected] (Canberra Skeptics in the Pub). Hunter Skeptics – John Turner A free monthly talk, open to the public, usually takes place Tel: (02) 4959 6286 [email protected] on the 1st Saturday of each month at the Lecture Theatre, Meetings are held at the Club Macquarie, Lake Road, Argenton CSIRO Discovery Centre, Clunies Ross Rd (check website for on the second Thursday of each month, excepting January, details of the current month’s talk). Skeptics in the Pub gather commencing 7.00pm, with a guest speaker or open discussion at 1pm on the third Sunday of each month at King O’Malleys on a given topic. Visitors welcome. Further information from the Pub in Civic. For up-to-date details : www.meetup.com/ secretary at: [email protected] SocialSkepticsCanberra/

Australian Skeptics (Vic) Inc – Chris Guest Skeptics SA – Laurie Eddie GPO Box 5166, Melbourne VIC 3001 52B Miller St Unley, SA 5061 Tel: 1 800 666 996 [email protected] Tel: (08) 8272 5881 [email protected] Skeptics’ Café – Third Monday of every month, with guest Thinking and Drinking - Skeptics in the Pub, on the third Friday speaker. La Notte, 140 Lygon St. Meal from 6pm, speaker at of every month. Contact [email protected] 8pm sharp. www.meetup.com/Thinking-and-Drinking-Skeptics-in-the-Pub/ calendar/10205558 or http://tinyurl.com/loqdrt More details on our web site www.skeptics.com.au/vic

WA Skeptics – Dr Geoffrey Dean Borderline Skeptics Inc – Laurie Smith PO Box 466, Subiaco, WA 6904 RSB 11 Callaghhan’s Creek Boxes, via Tallangatta VIC 3701 Tel: 08 9341 4538 [email protected] Tel: (02) 6072 3415 Meetings are held quarterly on second Tuesday at Albury/ All meetings start at 7:30 pm at Grace Vaughan House, Wodonga on pre-announced dates and venues. 227 Stubbs Terrace, Shenton Park Further details of all our meetings and speakers are on our website at www.undeceivingourselves.org Queensland Skeptics Association Inc – Bob Bruce PO Box 3480, Norman Park QLD 4170; www.qskeptics.org.au Mob: 0419 778 308 [email protected] Hobart Skeptics – Leyon Parker PO Box 84, Battery Point TAS 7004 Meetings with a guest speaker on the last Monday of the Tel: 03 6225 3988 BH, 0418 128713 [email protected] month from February to November at the Redbrick Hotel, 81 Skeptics in the Pub - 2nd Monday each month, Annerley Road, South Brisbane. Dinner from 6pm, speaker 6.30pm, Ball & Chain restaurant, Salamanca Place at 7.30pm. Qskeptics eGroup - www.egroups.com/list/qskeptics Darwin Skeptics – Brian de Kretser Tel: (08) 8927 4533 [email protected] Volume 35 • No 2 June 15 Contents REPORTS 9 Online problems 9 Tim Mendham

FEATURES Facing Up to Illogicality 13 Martin Bidgstock Cognitive dissonance 16 Bob Carroll 22 Confirmation bias 22 Peter Bowditch 16 Illogical words 23 13 Peter Bowditch 24 Online illogicality 24 Tyson Adams

Fooled ya! 28 Museum of Hoaxes

ARTICLES Tim Ferguson interview 32 34 Maynard 32 37 UFOs - the evidence 34 Vicente-Juan Olmos 38 UFOs - the brain 37 Sydney Bockner

UFOs - the culture 38 Steve Roberts

On with the show 42 Ross Balch 42 Drugs - use and abuse 44 44 Alex Wodak

Darwin’s missing link 48 Tim Harding

REGULARS Editorial 4 Around the Traps 5 Them! 10 54 The logical place 19 Puzzles page 27 Book reviews 54 56 What goes around 56 Letters 61 EDITORIAL From the Editor

Life, but not as we know it here’d be a fair proportion of was cool. Tthe readers of this journal who Gene Roddenberry, who created would have Mr Spock of Star Trek Star Trek, was a skeptic and a fame as one of their favourite TV humanist, and won awards to prove it. characters. Even those who weren’t And I would suggest that Spock was ISSN 0726-9897 around for the original TV series – the character that Gene was closest Quarterly Journal of 1966-69 – still recognise the pointy too. It’s not by accident that Spock Australian Skeptics Inc ears, the upraised (again pointy) was the Starship Enterprise’s science (ABN 90 613 095 379) eyebrows, the sourpuss face and the officer. Editor often superior manner. But even logic has to be seen in Tim Mendham A main reason for his memorability a human context, at least until we is that Spock was just a good deal discover a purely Vulcan world. Editorial Board more interesting than the other fairly In the first Star Trek movie – Steve Roberts bland crew members; even Captain cleverly titled Star Trek, the Motion Eran Segev Kirk was a bit of a stuffed shirt, no Picture – the Enterprise comes across Martin Hadley matter how much he thought he was a character/creature/entity called Vejur, Barry Williams a ladies’ man. To be fair, the engineer which wants to travel to Earth to meet Design Services Scotty did have one great line of “the Creator” and join with him. He/ Nova Consulting P/L dialogue - “I’m givin’ it all she’s got, she/it was everything that Spock had Cap’n” - that is enough to keep him ever dreamed of becoming. And yet All correspondence to: at least near the forefront of Trekkie Vejur was barren. It would never feel Australian Skeptics Inc memories. pain. Or joy. Or challenge. It was so PO Box 20 But like Scottie, Spock also had completely and magnificently logical Beecroft NSW 2119 his one line; in fact, his was only one that its accumulation of knowledge Australia word: “Illogical”, sometimes preceded was totally useless. Contact details by “hmm”. Did Vejur give up its barren logic to Tel: +61 (0)2 8094 1894 As much as we might have found go for an emotional response? Did it Mob: +61 (0)432 713 195 Spock the cold intellectual, one who deny what made it overwhelming Fax: +61 (0)2 8088 4735 used his height to look down on in the first place? those who didn’t have Vulcan blood Logic is key to life, Vejur-version [email protected] (even if he himself only had a half- or whatever. We make logical decisions www.skeptics.com.au case load), he was still intriguing. And every day - which train to catch, his economical “Illogical” put a scythe which fridge to buy, whether to use The Skeptic is published four times through the emotion-driven reactions toothpaste or that funny stuff in the per year by Australian Skeptics Inc. of others. Yay, Spock, let ’em have it! jar. But we don’t use logic to fixate on Views and opinions expressed in articles So who won the day – logic or a hero, to love another, or to choose a and letters in The Skeptic are those of emotion? religion and a creator. There lies desire the authors, and are not necessarily Normally the emotional Kirk got more than logic. those of Australian Skeptics Inc. to sit in the big chair, and gave orders Logic is important. Logic is vital. Articles may be reprinted with to his crew of equally emotional But there’s a lot of people who give permission and with due acknowledge- officers. Kirk probably fired his phaser up on thinking logically in favour of ment to The Skeptic. more often (an obvious emotional choosing hopefully. How do you deal All effort is made to ensure correct reaction, even if it was only on stun). with them? How do you convince acknowledgement of all contributions. And Kirk got the girl, though he them? Perhaps it works best just by We are happy to update credit when so usually lost her as well. Kirk smiled. saying “Illogical” and being cool. At informed. Kirk got the glory. And Kirk would least you’ll be memorable, and find make fun of Spock’s lack of emotion. pride of place on someone’s bedroom Editorial submission deadline But we remember Spock. There’d wall. . for the next issue: be more posters of Spock on bed- July 15, 2015 room walls than any of Kirk. Spock - Tim Mendham, editor 4 NEWS The Skeptic June 15 Around the traps ... Vaccination – no objections allowed

AUSTRALIA: From 1 January further exemptions from any religious 2016, the Commonwealth government exemptions. will remove “conscientious objection” Immunisation requirements for the and religious reasons as an exemption payment of FTB Part A end-of-year category for child care payments (Child supplement will Care Benefit and Child Care Rebate) also be extended to and the Family Tax Benefit Part A end include children of from preventable of year supplement. all ages. Currently, diseases.” In a joint statement titled “No vaccination status While jab – no play and no pay for child care”, is only checked at vaccination rates the Prime Minister and the Minister ages 1, 2 and 5 years. in Australia had for Social Services said “Parents who This means that increased since vaccinate their children should have vaccine objectors will the Childhood confidence that they can take their not be able to access Immunisation children to child care without the fear these government Register was that their children will be at risk of payments. established in 1996, contracting a serious or potentially “The new policy vaccine objection life-threatening illness because of the will tighten up the rules and reinforce rates for children under the age of conscientious objections of others.” the importance of immunisation and seven have also increased steadily, At the time of the launch, Scott protecting public health, especially for especially under the conscientious Morrison, the Minister for Social children,” the Ministers said. objector category. Services (pictured right), told the “Australia now has childhood More than 39,000 children aged press that affiliation with a registered vaccination rates over 90 per cent, under seven are not vaccinated because religious group is “the only basis from one to five years of age, but more their parents are vaccine objectors. This upon which you can have a religious needs to be done to ensure we protect is an increase of more than 24,000 exemption, and there are no our children and our community children over 10 years. mainstream religions that have such objections registered so this would apply to a very, very small proportion of people. It’d be lucky to be in the thousands, if that.” NHMRC finally dumps on homeopathy But within a week that exemption was also removed. AUSTRALIA: The National examination of the effectiveness of “We have had further discussions Health and Medical Research Council homeopathy. with the Church of Christ, Scientist (NHMRC) released a statement in “The review found no good and have formed the view that the March concluding that “there is no quality, well-designed studies with registered exemption they have had in good quality evidence to support the enough participants to support the place is no longer current or necessary claim that homeopathy is effective in idea that homeopathy works better and therefore it will be removed,’’ he treating health conditions”. than a placebo, or causes health said. “They are not advising anyone in The long-awaited release follows improvements equal to those of their religion not to vaccinate people. “a thorough review of the evidence, another treatment.” “Having spoken to them we no conducted as part of NHMRC’s While some studies did report longer see that exemption as being responsibility to provide advice that homeopathy was effective, the current. As a result, there is no and support informed health NHMRC report says that the quality longer any religious exemption for care decisions by the Australian of those studies was assessed as being vaccination. And there won’t be any community,” the statement says. small and/or of poor quality. religious exemptions for vaccinations. The NHMRC assessed more than The then CEO of NHMRC, “So the only exemption now is 1800 papers, of which 225 studies Professor Warwick Anderson, drew medical. We’re not accepting any met the criteria to be included in the particular attention to the NHMRC 5 23 NEWS

NHMRC finally dumps on homeopathy Continued...

Statement on Homeopathy’s advice He added that the that homeopathy should not be used NHMRC was aware to treat conditions that are chronic, of “strongly held serious, or could become serious. views on this topic” “People who choose homeopathy so it noted that the may put their health at risk if process was thoroughly they reject or delay treatments for consultative and that which there is good evidence for the public was invited safety and effectiveness. People to submit information who are considering whether to use and evidence, all of homeopathy should first get advice which was considered from a registered health practitioner by its expert working and in the meanwhile keep taking committee. same time. Its release follows public any prescribed treatments. The findings of the homeopathy consultation on the draft information “From this review, the main working group’s review are summarised paper in 2014. recommendation for Australians in the final NHMRC Information The statement, information is that they should not rely on Paper: Evidence on the effectiveness paper and FAQs are available on the homeopathy as a substitute for of homeopathy for treating a clinical NHMRC website - www.nhmrc.gov. proven, effective treatments.” condition, which was released at the au/guidelines-publications/cam02.

... and NHMRC chief decries magic ‘medicine’

AUSTRALIA: Professor Warwick pushing ineffective treatments “It’s fairly astounding to see that 19th Anderson, the recently retired head when there are perfectly good century quackery lingers into the 21st of the National Health & Medical tested conventional methods. “This century. Did I say lingers? I should have Research Council, has given a blast is especially unethical when the said roars into the 21st century. to the complementary and alternative practitioner personally benefits, say “It’s one thing when people sell medicine industry, saying that 19th by selling a line of herbal extracts or magic therapies to the worried well. century quackery has no place in the miracle foods or even an app or a That’s mostly just a waste of money or 21st century. cookbook.” expensive urine; perhaps a little placebo “We must assume [the practitioners] Speaking on April 15 to a National effect as well. either believe in magic or perhaps are Press Club audience on the state of “But it’s an entirely different matter just dishonest.” medical research in Australia, he focused when people who are ill with a treatable He particularly criticised those part of his speech on the problems and illness are pushed therapies that don’t dangers of unregulated complementary work and, in fact, are often implausible, and alternative medicine. pushed by practitioners who we must “Ill health has attracted charlatans assume either believe in magic or since time immemorial,” he said. “Snake perhaps are just dishonest. oil merchants wanting to take your “We tend to metaphorically shrug money by promising false hope. It’s our shoulders when we hear of these false because it doesn’t offer hope or it’s cases, but we should not. We should ineffective. take the same serious approach to so- “We need to move away from called alternative medicine as we take to magic.” the pharmaceutical industry.” He thought that this sort This included the TGA approval of behaviour may have been process. understandable before science began to “If I were God what I would do is come up with real, effective treatments to say if you want to say something has and cures. “But this is no longer a health benefit, you’ve got to provide justified.” some evidence about it.” The Skeptic June 15

Homeopathy college diluted 2015 Skeptics Convention speakers

USA: The Phoenix Business Journal president of the accrediting agency. reports that the American Medical “They were involved in research, AUSTRALIA: The organisers of College of Homeopathy has filed clinical practice and raising the bar for the 2015 Australian Skeptics National Chapter 7 under the US Bankruptcy homeopathy. We were sad to see them Convention have announced four Code and closed its doors. close their doors.” international speakers for the event to When the school closed, it was The homeopathic school listed assets be held in Brisbane on October 16-18. “accredited and in good standing” of $52,994 and debts of $356,687. The overseas speakers are: with the Accreditation Commission Students had the option to complete Joe Nickell, the world’s leading for Homeopathic Education in North their homeopathic education through investigator of the paranormal; America. a teach-out plan with the Phoenix Eugenie Scott, former Executive “The need for closure, as I Institute of Herbal Medicine and Director of the National Center understand, had nothing to do with Acupuncture, Cotroneo said. for Science Education and one of the quality of their program; it had to Cotroneo said there are only 15 to the strongest voices challenging the do with finances,” said Rick Cotroneo, 20 homeopathic schools left in the US. teaching of young earth creationism and intelligent design in schools; Susan Gerbic, the ‘ Wikipedia- trician’, founder of the Guerrilla Skepticism on Wikipedia and the Mouldy old ghosts others such as indoor moulds are less Skeptic Action projects; and researched. Myles Power, Manchester-based USA: The UK Express website reports “Reports of psychiatric symptoms industrial chemist, YouTuber on that researchers studying ghostly including mood swings, hyperactivity, science and pseudoscience topics, and apparitions said that hauntings are and irrational anger, as well as cognitive one of the founders of the League of usually reported in old buildings impairment are prevalent among those Nerds podcast. which often have poor air quality from exposed to moulds. Of course, top of the list of local pollutants. Experiences reported in many hauntings speakers is astronomer and Nobel Previous research has shown that toxic are similar to mental or neurological Prize laureate Prof Brian Schmidt. mould can affect the brain, but the symptoms reported by individuals Others include journalist Signe results of indoor mould exposure on exposed to toxic moulds. Cane; writer and science researcher, cognitive functioning is less known. Toxic mould can grow in wall cavities Holly Warland; Peter Ellerton, Professor Shane Rogers, who is leading and under floor boards and is especially lecturer in critical thinking; Ketan the research said: “Experiences reported common in older damper houses such Joshi, researcher on community in many hauntings are similar to mental as stately homes. issues around renewable energy; or neurological symptoms reported by The US study, at Clarkson University and Ross Balch, co-organiser of the individuals exposed to toxic moulds. in New York, is studying samples taken convention, president of the Brisbane “Psychoactive effects of some fungi from several buildings where ghost Skeptic Society and producer of the are well-known, whereas the effects of sightings have been reported. Skeptically Challenged podcast. The convention will also feature a panel on Parenting Skeptically, featuring Lauren Cochrane, president of the Canberra Skeptics; Jo Alabaster, podcaster and writer; and Alison Gaylard, administrator of the Northern Rivers Vaccination Supporters (and joint winner of the Skeptics’ Thornett Award in 2014). The main convention will be on October 17 – 18 at Queensland University of Technology, with a skepticamp and a free evening of entertainment on Friday, October 16. More info at the official website convention.brisbaneskeptics.org. 7 23 NEWS

Raelian UFO embassy but the Israeli government has turned down the request seven times. “Many other countries have been USA: The Raelians want to build a approached to have the privilege embassy to welcome extraterrestrials, of being the host of this embassy. celebrating International ET Embassy The very simple request is for Day with demonstrations and approximately 5 square km of land on publicity events held all over the world which to construct the embassy along in April. with full extraterritoriality for it in the Raelians re believers in an advanced host country and a pre-established no- race of extraterrestrials called Elohim fly zone for the air space surrounding who created life on earth. The group it, said Daniel Turcotte, the Raelian was founded by French former racing Movement’s diplomatic agent for the journalist, Claude ‘Rael’ Vorihon. ET Embassy Project. “International ET Embassy Day “The day when this occurs will Money for UFO flights urges all governments of the world to be an exciting time as humanity will consider allowing a neutral embassy receive the peaceful Elohim with love to be built to welcome our creators and be able to enjoy their advanced USA: A skeptical paranormal from outer space so that they may technology which will end our investigation group offers $100,000 share their advanced technology with planetary crisis.” to anyone who can prove that mankind,” the Raelians announced on “The US and all other governments they’ve been aboard a UFO. their website RaeliaNews. around the world know that an The Independent Investigations “This is a very special day that Rael extraterrestrial civilization has been Group (IIG) is a volunteer created to promote the project of making itself known for a long time,” organisation that is part of the welcoming the Elohim back to Earth. Kaenzig explained. “By allowing so Center for Inquiry in Los Angeles, It falls the day before the first Sunday many of their UFOs and crop circles which was founded by James in April; when the Elohim created to be observed and documented by Underdown. the first humans through genetic both the public and Earth’s military He explained to media outlet engineering. [No, that’s not April 1 – forces, these extraterrestrials have been Times LIVE, “I live in LA, which Ed] preparing humanity gradually for is crammed with people with The announcement says that, ideally, open contact. It’s time to acknowledge New Age ideas – water dowsers, the embassy would be near Jerusalem that and build an embassy to welcome psychics, healers, clairvoyants, where the Elohim originally set up their them here officially, on behalf of past-life regressors. It got to the laboratories thousands of years ago humanity.” point at which, instead of arguing, I thought: ‘All this stuff is testable by science’. So I started a centre for inquiry.” The IIG’s website says that “If you pass the IIG Challenge, we’ll pay you $100,000 ourselves and release the results publicly, which will raise your profile immensely among those who doubt your claims. The true skeptics will have to take notice!” The person who refers the claimant who wins the IIG challenge will receive $5,000 for introducing the group to the winning claimant. As the Open Minds - UFO News & Investigations website reports, “A lot of people have attempted to claim the $100,000 prize, nobody has been able to conclusively prove their extraordinary claims.” . 8 REPORT Alt Med The Skeptic June 15 Not healthy Tim Mendham reports on bad results for online babes.

t has not been a good few months WHOLE PANTRY for the promotion of alt med Belle Gibson is the creator of The Ionline. Whole Pantry, an app and associated Three high profile exponents of cookbook of recipes and wellbeing tips alternative cures and diets - all attractive “to help you live what Gibson calls ‘the young women - have either succumbed whole life’,” according to a report on to a disease they claimed to have news.com.au in November last year. treated through ‘natural’ means, or have The report continued with the claim succumbed to the power and influence that Gibson had experienced vision, that their online fame has brought them. memory and walking problems, then FOOD BABE had a stroke. Subsequently she was The third online celebrity to face WELLNESS WARRIOR diagnosed with malignant brain cancer, criticism is former management Jess Ainscough, who went under the and given four months to live. consultant Vani Hari, who blogged title the Wellness Warrior, developed an “Two months into chemotherapy under the name Food Babe. epithelioid sarcoma in 2008 and ended and radiotherapy she passed out on a Without any scientific or nutritionist up choosing ‘natural healing’ to treat her Melbourne hospital lawn and, when she background, she has made many claims cancer. Among the modalities she touted awoke, she says, she had an epiphany: if about food additives, usually without were the Gerson protocol, complete she only had a few weeks left, she wasn’t any substantiation and often completely with coffee enemas. She produced videos going to live them like that. wrong. These included the ludicrous explaining how to administer coffee “She says her doctors thought suggestion that air on planes was enemas and posted them on YouTube, she was mad when she gave up dangerous because it contained up to 50 along with many others, although last conventional treatment in favour per cent nitrogen (normal air is 78 per year it was noted that most of her videos of alternatives including herbalism, cent nitrogen). appeared to have disappeared from her craniosacral therapy. But she had hope. Dr Steve Novella, clinical neurologist YouTube channel as private. She continued the meditation practice and assistant professor at Yale She died of the disease at the end of that she loved, and nurtured herself University’s school of medicine, as well as February this year. with wholefoods.” being a noted Skeptic and founder of the Epithelioid sarcoma is an incredibly Gibson chronicled her battle with Skeptics Guide to the Universe, said “It’s rare, slow-growing cancer and it appears cancer on a blog, The Whole Pantry, almost like she’s a food terrorist. She will Ainscough would have had to have which spawned an app and recipe book. target some benign ingredient that has a extensive surgery to remove her arm and But doubts about her claims surfaced scary sounding name. Her criterion is if shoulder when it was first discovered in after she failed to deliver a promised she can’t pronounce it, then it’s scary. order to give herself the best chance of $300,000 donation to charity. “What she does over and over again survival. The problem was that she never had is target a chemical and try to provoke Ainscough’s mother had also died of cancer, and her thousands of followers a disgust reflex by talking about what cancer in 2013. She too had used natural had been duped. other purposes a chemical is used for or therapies to attempt to cure herself. “None of it’s true”, Gibson where it’s derived from,” Novella said. In his blog, surgical oncologist eventually admitted to The Australian The real question is why the public, David ‘Orac’ Gorski said that “Jess and Women’s Weekly magazine. and especially corporations, listen to Sharyn Ainscough were just as much Others have now distanced these online celebrities and then act victims as any other cancer patient who themselves from Gibson, including upon their prognostications with total chooses alternative medicine quackery. Penguin, the publishers of her cookbook, credulity. That these unqualified online Unfortunately, she also promoted that Apple, which was to run her app on its mentors’ knowledge comes from other same quackery, which made them new watch, and Elle magazine, which equally unqualified online sources, and complicit as well. Being simultaneously had named her “the most inspiring whose main call to action is based on a victim and an enabler or promoter is woman you’ve met this year”. fear rather than fact, should be a concern frequently the case with believers in alt- At time of writing, there is no news of to everyone with an interest in truth in med cancer ‘cures’.” any charges being brought against Gibson. medicine and in personal ethics. . 9 THEM Readers’ indigestible Tim Mendham looks at those ‘other’ publications, where skepticism is a dirty word ... sometimes.

his issue, we look at two extremes of the paranormal publishing world. TWell, extremes might be generous - they are both believers, and they both treat their subjects with a serious air. But while the print publication dealing with psychics and mediums has a touch of skepticism, the astrology website has a touch of madness. Read on.

Psychic News

Subtitled with that clichéd standby of its development in the dark. The of the mystical world, “Developing reason for this is that ectoplasm – a your Mind, Body, Spirit”, Psychic substance exuded from the physical News ($11.20) is a UK publication medium’s body – is extremely that, at least on occasion, takes a sensitive to light. Many are the refreshing approach to its subject. physical mediums who have sustained pro-mediumship, and the comment Yes, of course, it’s full of injuries because the sudden and that conditions in the séance will paranormalities – interviews with unexpected introduction of light affect the reading is pretty general. But mediums, dream interpretation, a has caused the ectoplasm to return some are suggesting that IR filming is profile (part three, in fact) of a course violently to the medium’s body, not an issue, and others that maybe on how to be a psychic, time slips, resulting in burns and bleeding.” they should try thermal imaging. handwriting analysis, spiritual art, Yet the new AFC protocol states And this tone of serious discussion, even whether pets survive beyond that, “In principle there should be and even criticism, exists in at least death. (Hopefully Spot won’t relieve no seances held in total darkness. some form in other parts of the himself on the Pearly Gates.) Subdued lighting including coloured magazine. Of interest is a lengthy discussion lights or natural light is preferable at An opening news story is on “the by several parties on whether all times.” boy who came back from heaven” and infrared light affects mediumship. The solution may be infrared light, wrote a book about it. He was a fraud, As background, the Arthur Findlay but even that, say some mediums, and voluntarily admitted it. Another College, founded in 1964 and located might impact on their ability to news story is on a “bogus psychic in Essex, is a college of spiritualism manifest whatever it is they manifest. caught after 20 years”. And there’s the and psychic sciences, noted for its Now you might think that the in-house astrologer for the Sri Lankan demonstrations, lectures and tutorials reason mediums fear coming out president, Mahinda Rajapakse, who in the medium’s art. It has recently of the dark is that they would be predicted the president would be issued a formal eight-point protocol revealed as frauds. And that’s exactly around for another term or two - only governing demonstrations of physical what some of the writers on this he lost. The astrologer “insisted that mediumship at its two locations. Part topic say: “There have been so many he always knew Rajapakse would of that protocol is the need to ‘open scoundrels, who have used – and lose, but he did not have the heart the window’, so to speak, on physical still do – the cover of darkness to to tell him because he would have manifestations (levitation, ectoplasm). persuade gullible sitters that they are been psychologically shattered”. How As Psychic News says in an editorial physical mediums that I welcome this thoughtful. on its website: “Traditionally, and attempt to give this important form But probably the most ‘skeptical’ with no confirmed exceptions in of mediumship more credibility.” And item in the psychic publication is an the Western world, this rare form of this from a medium! article on “Fifty ways to trick you?” mediumship has undergone much True, most of the discussion is very This includes comments by a number

10 The Skeptic June 15

s Star Stuck A multitude of sites on the internet glossary of traditional astrological are devoted to astrology. Google terms, based on Christian Astrology, comes up with “about 44,800,000” Volume 1, by William Lilly, 1647. in just 0.21 seconds. Perhaps because the source is Most of them, like astrology.com. getting upwards of 370 years old, au, give free Sun-sign predictions, the glossary is ... how can we put a little history and context, some this ... virtually incomprehensible. psychic elements thrown in for For instance, the opening term good measure, and it’s all usually is “Almuten”, with the explanation pretty simplistic. For instance, the being “that planet that bears chief of university researchers on their Australian astrology site opens with rule of any sign, or in any figure, work into hallucinations, hypnosis, the explanation that the name is as saturn in Libra is Almuten, or automatic writing, and even “Derived from the two Greek words is Almuten of Libra, because he spoon bending. That last topic is ‘Astra’ meaning a star and ‘logos’ has both exaltation and triplicity covered by Prof Chris French of the meaning logic or reason.” Actually, therein, and Venus has only house, Anomalistic Psychology Research it doesn’t mean that, because “logos” so that saturn bearing chief rule, is Unit at Goldsmiths, University (sometimes translated as “word”) of this sign Almuten”. of London and, of course, one of derives from the Greek “lego” Got that? Good. the founders of the UK Skeptics meaning “to count, tell, say, speak”. Unfortunately, as the authors say, (though that latter qualification is But hey, this is astrology. What do the glossary is a work in progress, not included in the article). you want – accuracy? and only takes you as far as “F”. Basically a summary of a BBC The site goes on to admit that But they do say that new terms will Radio 4 series called “All in the astrology has come to mean many be added over a period of time. Mind”, in the article Psychic News things to many different people. Seeing as the list dates from 1995, comments that “The impression “To the practitioner is the study we wouldn’t advise you to hold your I received was that [French] now of the intimate relationship between breath. attributes all claimed paranormal celestial movements and terrestrial Appropriately, the last term on metal-bending to sleight of hand. life. To the lay person interested in the list is “Frustration”. (Some readers might have serious the topic it is away [sic] to somehow The definition of that word reservations about such a sweeping cast aside one’s sense of responsibility sums up this rather strange site: assumption!)” for what happens in one’s life and “Frustration is, when a swift Planet Yes, they might, but at least the endow the planets and stars above would corporally join with a magazine published them. with that task. And of course to the more ponderous, but before they One cautious note to end on. nonbeliever there just isn’t anything can come to a Conjunction, the The magazine has a disclaimer on its you can say that will convince them more weighty Planet is joined to publisher’s page: “We regret that we that some distance [sic] star in another, and so the Conjunction are unable to recommend particular another galaxy can actually have any of the first is frustrated, as mediums and healers. Whilst we impact upon human beings here on Mercury in ten degrees of Aries, endeavour to ensure those given planet Earth.” Mars twelve, Jupiter in thirteen editorial coverage on our pages and Too true. of Aries; here Mercury strives to those who advertise their services are But let’s take those definitions one come to Conjunction with Mars, bona fide exponents, the abilities of step further. The far more esoteric but Mars first gets to conjunction exponents are often subjective.” astrology site www.horary.com covers with Jupiter; whereby Mercury is As the magazine perhaps horary astrology, “a highly specialised frustrated of the Conjunction of surprisingly suggests, among astrological application [that] is very Mars: in Questions is signifies as the plethora of practitioners of ancient”. much as our common Proverb, The mediumship, in or out of the This site seems to be primarily for Dogs quarrel, a third gets the Bone.” magazine, there are bound to be a practitioners rather than consumers, That’s verbatim, including the bit few shonks. . and includes a helpful technical about the Dogs. .

11

FEATURE Illogical The Skeptic June 15 Facing Up

found the article by Heidi I Robertson in the March 2015 issue of The Skepticto be one of How do you deal with the illogical when the most powerful I have read. Heidi described how she visited the it’s so illogical? Martin Bridgstock produces Starlight Festival in Bangalow, NSW and found it thick with assorted a few suggestions for skeptics. forms of woo. More than half the article describes an all-woman encounter in a teepee-type structure. Heidi ended up in a confrontation Women skeptics can also take action yourself facing someone who disagrees with a woo practitioner who clearly in these matters where men can’t. with you, and who might be well- understood nothing about science Again at Brisbane Skepticamp, I was informed and capable of arguing back. or logic. She found the session impressed by the way that women Apparently the woo peddler was not distressing, and had to leave early. skeptics in the Northern Rivers area equipped to handle that, and became She reproaches herself in the article, were addressing the anti-vaccination angry. It was her fault, not Heidi’s. writing: “I still have so much to problem. They would talk to mothers I face the mirror image of the learn. I don’t know the best way to who had doubts about vaccination – woo-peddler’s problem when I teach communicate with people who are not hardcore deniers – and gently give my course on Skepticism at Griffith immune ... to the best evidence that the evidence and put the concerns University. I spend a lot of each is there, if only they would see it.” into perspective. It is vital work, and teaching session in discussion, asking (p31) in general only women (non-intrusive) I have three reactions to this. My can do it. Heidi is one Women described questions and first is thankfulness that we now have of the organisers of “ going over an appreciable number of women that group. the pressure on young important points. skeptics. They see things that men do My second reaction mothers to adopt woo I know, from years not see. A male skeptic, visiting this is that Heidi should of experience, that Starlight Festival, would never have not blame herself for products “for the good a fair proportion ended up in the teepee and so would what happened. She of their children” . of the class will not have heard this form of nonsense. had talked to other ” have one or more I remember being intrigued at last paranormal peddlers paranormal beliefs, year’s Brisbane Skepticamp, where at the festival without any problems. and there may be a few creation women skeptics described the However, this woman had chosen an scientists. So I stress that I am not out pressures on young mothers to adopt interactive format, asking intrusive to change their views; their opinions woo products “for the good of their personal questions and pushing her are not my business. I simply insist children”. Women skeptics see this, own views. If you run sessions that that they must be able to understand men usually don’t. way, you are eventually bound to find and apply the basic ideas of skepticism. 0313 FEATURE Illogical

Facing Up (p227) It’s a good evidence. I would illustration of how want evidence at least Continued... the mind of the ‘true as strong to accept believer’ is closed to homeopathy, and so contrary evidence and far I have not heard I know, however, that if they learn argument. Probably, any. Can you produce to think skeptically, the effect on their Heidi could not have any such evidence?” views can be dramatic. For example, convinced the woo To be able to refer one piece of research showed that proponent even if she to similar studies the course reduced the proportion of had a mass of evidence on, say, naturopathy, students believing in telepathy from available. chiropractic, 44 per cent to six per cent (Bridgstock Does this mean faith healing and and Taylor 2007). One student wrote, that the skeptical case vaccination would be “Martin, you destroyed my fantasy is hopeless? Not at equally useful. They world!” Well, maybe I did, but it was all. It simply means won’t convince the not by direct argument. I have learned that changing the fanatic, but others to handle different viewpoints; this deep-rooted views of may well listen. Some woman clearly hasn’t. a fanatical believer is skeptical groups extremely difficult. “ Just a couple of produce leaflets giving THE UNPERSUADABLES To return to Heidi’s times, , when faced the basic facts about My third point is the most important. example, the woman these claims. It isn’t If you are a skeptic, it is close to in the teepee seemed with a closed minded spectacular, but it is impossible to communicate with some to have a business fanatic, I have set out thoroughly worthwhile of these weirdos. Will Storr’s book The selling woo cures, and to shock them badly. work. Unpersuadables contains accounts of probably believed ” Another useful the tricks, evasions and mis-statements strongly that she tactic is to turn the which oddballs use in order to avoid the was doing good. She would not give tables. Apply the fanatics’ own standards weight of evidence. There is no sure way up her business, or her beliefs, easily. to themselves. Years ago, a friend of through such a barrage of bull: nothing However, there were four other women my wife’s came to stay. She was doing a is guaranteed to work. Where the woo in the teepee, and they might have course in naturopathy, and was full of peddler is determined, and practiced been more receptive to a well-argued descriptions of the benefits of natural in pushing their case, you should say skeptical case. Heidi had no chance to medicine. Then she started to hold forth goodbye to any chance of convincing prepare for the encounter, but simply about how dreadful mainstream doctors them. registering skepticism and dissent are, selling drugs to patients. I was Storr gives an example of this. He cannot do any harm. opening my mouth to point out that went on a guided tour of Auschwitz doctors normally don’t sell drugs when with notorious holocaust denier David WHAT CAN BE DONE? my wife made a much better point: Irving. In the gas chamber, Irving So what can work? Well, let us “But that’s exactly what naturopaths pointed to the doors, and announced: agree that a minority of paranormal do,” she said. And it is. They get money “There are handles on the inside of believers are closed-minded fanatics, from selling a product. There was these doors. If this was a homicidal and that a big majority are not well- silence. We heard no more about the gas chamber, you wouldn’t be going, informed and might be susceptible wonders of naturopathy. ‘Excuse me, I’m just going to let myself to a good argument. So our first, and Heidi had the idea of taking a out now.’ (p226) simplest duty is to give them that supportive friend along next time. This However, Storr checked and found argument. Skeptics should know, for strikes me as a good idea. If a friend something different: “Yes, there was example, about the recent National had accompanied her, there would a rudimentary U-shaped handle on Health & Medical Research Council presumably have been seven people the inside, but it had no opening analysis which analysed 225 trials and in the teepee: one woo practitioner, mechanism. And there were bolts on concluded that homeopathy has no two skeptics and four others. The odds the outside, two of them, huge ones, curative powers. You don’t need all the would have been a lot more favourable. each attached to clasps that would have details, but mentioning this – perfectly I remember way back in 1985 when locked the door closed over airtight genuine – piece of evidence puts you in the Queensland Skeptics held a public seals.” (p227. Italics in the original.) a strong position. A fanatic will not, of meeting to denounce the (apparently He comments on Irving, “He saw course, accept the evidence, but your unstoppable) introduction of creation the door handle. [But] What happened riposte can then be something like science into the state science syllabus. in his mind when he saw the bolts?” “Well, 225 studies strike me as strong I was one of several speakers, all men. 14 The Skeptic June 15

We spoke before an audience of about backed off. It isn’t pleasant, but my let this stop you. We are not isolated 350 people. Between speeches we sat impression is that if you keep grinding dissidents, we are part of a mighty together on the stage. We applauded away, arguing politely and asking for intellectual movement which goes back each other’s points and nodded evidence, they eventually become sick millennia, and is studded with great appreciatively to each other. It really of the exchanges. names like Socrates, David Hume helped. I make my last point with a good and Bertrand Russell. We may suffer Now there are certainly skeptics deal of hesitation. I am not sure about setbacks, but our ultimate goal is the with far more experience than me of advocating this, and invite other protection of human thought. We handling confrontations. It would skeptics to say if I am wrong. Just a cannot fail, and we must not fail. . be useful if they could share their couple of times, when faced with a practical knowledge. From my thirty closed-minded fanatic, I have set out, years of scepticism, I have two points not to convince them, but to shock REFERENCES about handling these situations. One them badly. My most spectacular Bridgstock, Martin. ((2014) Cognitive point is that politeness is usually a very case was with a leading proponent of Dissidents. Skeptic 34, 4: 46-48. good idea. Stick to asking for evidence creation science back in the 1980s. He Bridgstock, Martin and Taylor, Alisa (2007) and presenting contrary evidence. If had hundreds of hours of experience Teaching Skepticism: does it affect your opponent becomes abusive, say of public speaking, and we met on a paranormal belief? Skeptic 27, 3: 12-15. something like “I will not become talk-back radio show. I was not abusive, National Health and Medical Research abusive, I think the matter is too but I was aggressive, spelling out his Council (2015) NHMRC Statement on important. Now, I produced evidence extreme views and denouncing them. Homeopathy and NHMRC Information against your position. Do you have He hated that. I also had evidence Paper – Evidence on the effectiveness any real evidence to the contrary?” It about the poor quality of evidence he of homeopathy for treating health isn’t magic, but it works. Of course, was using, and attacked this too. He conditions. https://www.nhmrc.gov. if your opponent makes vague held on during the session, but after au/health-topics/complementary- statements or resorts to anecdotes you that evaded any other confrontations. medicines/homeopathy-review can simply point out, “That’s not very When a skeptic asked him about this, Accessed April 10. good evidence. I am quoting proper he replied “Emotional reasons.” I think Robertson, Heidi (2015) The Teepee of scientific studies. Do you have any such I rattled him badly. But never, ever use Tension. Skeptic 35, 1: 29-31. evidence?” such aggressive tactics on people who Storr, Will (2014) The Unpersuadables. As an example, consider the are prepared to listen. It’s rude, and you Adventures with the Enemies of Science. exchange I described with denier “Mr may well alienate them. New York: Overlook Press. No” in the last but one issue of The Skeptic (Bridgstock 2014: 47). By SOME PARTING WORDS email, he accused a noted scholar of I was inspired to write this article by the being a “nut” and producing “nutty” account by Heidi of her confrontation About the author: work. I wanted decent evidence, and he with a woo peddler. Most skeptics, if Martin Bridgstock is responded by saying I was being “silly” we are active, are going to have bad a senior lecturer in the and “trying to save face”. I rejected the encounters. We may be worsted by School of Biomolecular and abuse and kept asking for evidence. an argument we cannot refute at the Physical Sciences at Griffith Eventually he admitted there wasn’t time, or simply be upset by offensive University and the author any. I didn’t change his mind, but he tactics. My key message is simply, don’t of Beyond Belief.

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15 FEATURE Illogical Thinking I can’t believe it’s NOT True!

Bob Carroll profiles the classic denialism of unskeptical thinking – cognitive dissonance – and asks how much we really know about the ‘phenomenon’.

ognitive dissonance is a theory He argued that there are three ways to Most of us are clever enough to Cof human motivation that asserts deal with cognitive dissonance. He did come up with ad hoc hypotheses or that it is psychologically uncomfortable not consider these mutually exclusive. rationalisations to save cherished to hold contradictory cognitions. One may try to change one or more notions. Why we can’t apply this The theory is that dissonance, being of the beliefs, opinions, or behaviours cleverness more competently is not unpleasant, motivates a person to change involved in the dissonance; explained by noting that we are led his cognition, attitude, or behaviour. One may try to acquire new to rationalise because we are trying This theory was first explored in detail information or beliefs that will increase to reduce or eliminate cognitive by social psychologist Leon Festinger, the existing consonance and thus cause dissonance. Different people deal with who described it this way: the total dissonance to be reduced; or psychological discomfort in different “Dissonance and consonance are One may try to forget or reduce the ways. Some ways are clearly more relations among cognitions that is, importance of those cognitions that are reasonable than others. So, why do among opinions, beliefs, knowledge in a dissonant relationship (Festinger some people react to dissonance with of the environment, and knowledge 1956: 25-26). cognitive competence, while others of one’s own actions and feelings. For example, people who smoke respond with cognitive incompetence? Two opinions, or beliefs, or items of know smoking is a bad habit. Some Cognitive dissonance has been knowledge are dissonant with each rationalise their behaviour by looking called “the mind controller’s best other if they do not fit together; on the bright side: They tell themselves friend” (Levine 2003: 202). Yet, a that is, if they are inconsistent, or if, that smoking helps keep the weight cursory examination of cognitive considering only the particular two down and that there is a greater threat to dissonance reveals that it is not the items, one does not follow from the health from being overweight than from dissonance, but how people deal other.” (Festinger 1956: 25) smoking. Others quit smoking. with it, that would be of interest to 16 The Skeptic June 15

someone trying to control others when Left: Relaxed - Leon Festinger first explored the evidence seems against them. the theory of cognitive dissonance in the 1950. THE CHARISMATIC CULTIST Below: Disconnected - Marian Keech, leader For example, Marian Keech (real name, of the Seekers, contacts some UFOs Dorothy Martin) was the leader of a I can’t believe UFO cult in the 1950s. She claimed to get messages from extraterrestrials, known as the Guardians, through automatic writing. Like the Heaven’s Gate folks forty years later, Keech and her followers, known as the Seekers or it’s NOT True! the Brotherhood of the Seven Rays, were waiting to be picked up by flying saucers. In Keech’s prophecy, her group of eleven was to be saved just before the earth was to be destroyed by a massive flood on December 21, 1954. When it became evident that there would be no flood and the Guardians weren’t stopping by to pick them up, “Keech became elated. She said she’d With this kind of irrational thinking, just received a telepathic message from it may seem pointless to produce the Guardians saying that her group of evidence to try to persuade people of honesty, and likeability” (ibid, 31). believers had spread so much light with the error of their ways. Their belief is Furthermore, if a person is physically their unflagging faith that God had not based on evidence, but on devotion attractive, we tend to like that person spared the world from the cataclysm” to a person. That devotion can be so and the more we like a person the (Levine 2003: 206). great that even the most despicable more we tend to trust him or her (ibid, More importantly, the Seekers behaviour by one’s prophet can be 57). Research also shows that “people didn’t abandon her. Most became more rationalised. There are many examples are perceived as more credible when devoted after the failed prophecy. (Only of people so devoted to another that they make eye contact and speak with two left the cult when the world didn’t they will rationalise or ignore extreme confidence, no matter what they have to end.) “Most disciples not only stayed mental and physical abuse by their cult say” (ibid. 33). but, having made that decision, were leader (or spouse or boyfriend). If the According to Robert Levine, now even more convinced than before basis for a person’s belief is irrational “studies have uncovered surprisingly that Keech had been right all along. faith grounded in devotion to a little commonality in the type of ... Being wrong turned them into true powerful personality, personality that believers” (ibid). then the only option joins cults: there’s Some people will go to bizarre that person has when “ The ironies of cults - no single cult-prone lengths to avoid inconsistency between confronted with the craziest groups are personality type” their cherished beliefs and the facts. evidence that should (ibid, 144). This fact But why do people interpret the same undermine her faith often composed of the surprised Levine. evidence in contrary ways? would seem to be most caring people When he began The Seekers would not have waited to continue to be ” his investigation of for the flying saucer if they thought irrational, unless her cults he “shared the it might not come. So, when it faith was not that strong to begin with. common stereotype that most joiners didn’t come, one would think that a The interesting question, then, is not were psychological misfits or religious competent thinker would have seen about cognitive dissonance but about fanatics” (ibid, 81). What he found this as falsifying Keech’s claim that it faith. What was it about Keech that led instead was that many cult members are would come. However, the incompetent some people to have faith in her and attracted to what appears to be a loving thinkers were rendered incompetent by what was it about those people that community. “One of the ironies of their devotion to Keech. Their belief made them vulnerable to Keech? And cults is that the craziest groups are often that a flying saucer would pick them what was different about the two who composed of the most caring people up was based on faith, not evidence. left the cult? (ibid, 83).” Levine says of cult leader Jim Likewise, their belief that the failure of “Research shows that three Jones that he was “a supersalesman who the prophecy shouldn’t count against characteristics are related to exerted most every rule of persuasion” their belief was another act of faith. persuasiveness: perceived authority, (ibid, 213). He had authority, perceived 0317 FEATURE Illogical Thinking

I can’t Believe believed showed that the human body solution on each trial. Then the nurse could respond to the difference between returned with the key to the code. it’s NOT True glucose (a ‘bad’ sugar) and fructose (a When we determined which trials ‘good’ sugar). The differential sensitivity involved glucose and which involved Continued... was a truism among ‘alternative healers’, fructose, there was no connection though there was no scientific warrant between ability to resist and whether the for it. volunteer was given honesty, and likeability. It is likely the “The chiropractors the ‘good’ or the ‘bad’ same could be said of Marian Keech. had volunteers lie on sugar. It also seems likely that many cult their backs and raise “When these followers have found a surrogate family one arm vertically. They results were and a surrogate mother or father or both then would put a drop announced, the head in the cult leader. of glucose (in a solution chiropractor turned It should also be remembered that of water) on the to me and said, ‘You in most cases people have not arrived at volunteer’s tongue. The see, that is why we their irrational beliefs overnight. They chiropractor then tried never do double-blind have come to them over a period of time to push the volunteer’s testing anymore. with gradually escalated commitments upraised arm down to It never works!’ At (ibid, chapter 7). Nobody would join a horizontal position first I thought he a cult if the pitch were: “Follow me. while the volunteer was joking. It turned Drink this poisoned-but-flavoured tried to resist. In it out he was quite water and commit suicide.” Yet, not almost every case, serious. Since he everybody in the cult drank the poison the volunteer could ‘knew’ that applied and two of Keech’s followers quit the not resist. The kinesiology works, cult when the prophecy failed. How chiropractors stated and the best scientific were they different from the others? The the volunteer’s body They only bother to method shows that it explanation seems simple: their faith recognised glucose as “ does not work, then in their leader was weak. According to a ‘bad’ sugar. After submit to a test of their -- in his mind -- there Festinger, the two who left Keech - Kurt the volunteer’s mouth ideas to get proof for must be something Freund and Arthur Bergen - were lightly was rinsed out and a others. wrong with the committed to begin with. (Festinger drop of fructose was ” scientific method.” 1956: 208) placed on the tongue, (Hyman 1999) the volunteer, in just about every test, What distinguishes the chiropractor’s THE CURIOUS CHIROPRACTOR resisted movement to the horizontal rationalisation from the cult member’s Even people who erroneously think their position. The body had recognised is that the latter is based on pure faith beliefs are scientific may come by their fructose as a ‘good’ sugar. and devotion to a guru or prophet, notions gradually and their commitment “After lunch, a nurse brought us a whereas the former is based on evidence may escalate to the point of irrationality. large number of test tubes, each one from experience. Neither belief can Psychologist Ray Hyman provides a coded with a secret number so that we be falsified because the believers won’t very interesting example of cognitive could not tell from the tubes which let them be falsified: Nothing can dissonance and how one chiropractor contained fructose and which contained count against them. Those who base dealt with it: glucose. The nurse then left the room their beliefs on experience and what “Some years ago I participated in so that no one in the room during the they take to be empirical or scientific a test of applied kinesiology at Dr subsequent testing would consciously evidence (eg astrologers, palm readers, Wallace Sampson’s medical office in know which tubes contained glucose mediums, psychics, the intelligent Mountain View, California. A team of and which fructose. The arm tests design folks, and the chiropractor) chiropractors came to demonstrate the were repeated, but this time they were make a pretence of being willing to procedure. Several physician observers double-blind - neither the volunteer, the test their beliefs. They only bother to and the chiropractors had agreed that chiropractors nor the onlookers were submit to a test of their ideas to get chiropractors would first be free to aware of whether the solution being proof for others. That is why we refer to illustrate applied kinesiology in whatever applied to the volunteer’s tongue was their beliefs as pseudosciences. We do manner they chose. Afterward, we glucose or fructose. not refer to the beliefs of cult members would try some double-blind tests of “As in the morning session, as pseudoscientific, but as faith-based their claims. sometimes the volunteers were able to irrationality. “The chiropractors presented as their resist and other times they were not. There is scant evidence that the major example a demonstration they We recorded the code number of the chiropractors Wally Sampson and Ray 18 The Skeptic June 15

Hyman tested take the stand they do beliefs that conflict with the evidence by in order to relieve cognitive dissonance. the more familiar concepts of changing the Logical Place They didn’t just reject the results of one’s mind in light of new evidence, a single test, they rejected scientific rationalisation, self-deception, irrational False dilemma testing altogether in favour of what faith, confirmation bias, overestimation false dilemma, or false dichotomy, they think they know from personal of one’s intelligence and abilities, A is a logical fallacy that involves experience. Why? Because they consider and the like? I don’t think so. We presenting two opposing views, personal experience superior to double- shouldn’t forget that some people, when options or outcomes in such a way that blind controlled experiments. Why? confronted with strong evidence against To avoid having to deal with cognitive cherished beliefs, give up their cherished they seem to be the only possibilities: dissonance? What evidence is there beliefs, eg the “distinguished stratigraphy that is, if one is true, the other must that these chiropractors were made the professor” at Columbia University, be false, or, more typically, if you do least bit uneasy by holding a belief that praised by Stephen Jay Gould, who had not accept one then the other must conflicts with the rest of the scientific initially ridiculed the theory of drifting be accepted. The reality in most cases community? continents but “spent his last years is that there are many in-between or joyously redoing his life’s work” (Ever other alternative options, not just two THE COGNITIVE CONUNDRUM Since Darwin, 1979: 160). mutually exclusive ones. If a person is made psychologically Can we really explain why Sylvia The logical form of this fallacy is as uncomfortable by contradictory Browne or the members of the military follows: cognitions, shouldn’t there be some junta in Myanmar could sleep at night Premise 1: Either Claim X is true or way to measure this discomfort, such (assuming they do!) by appealing to the Claim Y is true (when claims X and Y as a rise in the level of cortisol or “theory of cognitive dissonance”? There could both be false). other stress hormones? Has anyone are people who know what they are Premise 2: Claim Y is false. defending cognitive dissonance ever doing is wrong and don’t care. Even a measured stress hormones being simple case that is often brought up by Conclusion: Therefore Claim X is true. aroused by dissonant beliefs or relieved the defenders of the theory of cognitive This line of reasoning is fallacious by rationalisation? The chiropractors’ dissonance - the case of the smoker because if both claims could be false, misguided belief is probably not due who continues his habit of smoking then it cannot be inferred that one is to worrying about their self-image even though he knows smoking is true because the other is false. This is or removing discomfort. It is more unhealthy - doesn’t measure up. What made clear by the following example: likely due to their being arrogant and is so cognitively uncomfortable about Either: 1+1=4 or 1+1=12. incompetent thinkers, convinced by knowing that smoking is unhealthy and It is not the case that 1+1=4. their experience that they ‘know’ what’s doing it anyway? Therefore 1+1=12. going on, and probably assisted by There are people who know what It is worth noting that it is not a communal reinforcement from the they are doing is wrong, but they have false dilemma to present two options like-minded arrogant and incompetent such contempt for the rest of us that out of many if no conclusion is drawn thinkers they work with and are it doesn’t make them the slightest bit based on their exclusivity. For example trained by. They’ve seen how applied uncomfortable conning us. What “you can have tea or coffee” is not kinesiology works with their own eyes. evidence is there that people who do a false dilemma. A fallacious form They’ve demonstrated it many times. If bad things or believe what they should would require it to be presented as an anything makes them uncomfortable know is false are concerned about their argument such as “you don’t want tea, it might be that they can’t understand self-image? Do mafia hit men have to therefore you must want coffee”. how the world can be so full of idiots deal with cognitive dissonance so they For example, if somebody was to who can’t see with their own eyes what can sleep at night? I’d like to see the appear to demonstrate psychic abilities, they see! empirical study on that one. one would commit the fallacy of false To return to Festinger’s own If cognitive dissonance were a dilemma if one were to reason as example, what is gained by saying that problem, it would show up at the level follows: either she’s a fraud or she is the two who left the cult had a light of methods used to evaluate beliefs. truly psychic, and she’s not a fraud; so commitment to begin with? How is Yet, many people seem to have no she must be truly psychic. There is at commitment measured? Do those who discomfort using science, logic, and least one other possible explanation see the light and change their mind reason to establish one set of beliefs, for her claim of psychic abilities: she when the evidence contradicts their while using desire, feelings, faith, genuinely thinks she’s psychic but belief have a light belief? If we apply emotional attachment to a charismatic she’s not. Occam’s razor to the theory of cognitive leader, and the like to establish another dissonance, is there anything left after set of beliefs. - by Tim Harding we explain how anyone deals with On the other hand, who am I to 19 FEATURE Illogical Thinking

I can’t Believe that Abraham’s god is one being REFERENCES but three persons. They also believe Ariely, Dan. (2008). Predictably Irrational: it’s NOT True that the divine nature transcends The Hidden Forces That Shape Our anything in the natural world and is Decisions. HarperCollins. Continued... incompatible with human nature, yet Festinger, Leon. A Theory of Cognitive many believe that Jesus was both god Dissonance (Stanford University Press and man. Finally, Catholics know that 1957). disagree with more than a half-century if something has all the properties of Festinger, Leon. When Prophecy Fails: A of scholarship in the social sciences that bread or wine, it would be absurd to say Social and Psychological Study (Harper has firmly established the concept of it is a duck or a train; yet, they believe Collins 1964). (Originally published in cognitive dissonance? As the authors that some bread and some wine looks 1956 by the University of Minnesota of the Wikipedia article on the topic like bread and wine but is actually Press.) write: “It is one of the most influential the body, blood, soul, and divinity of Gardner, Daniel. 2008. The Science of Fear: and extensively studied theories in Jesus. None of these folks seem the least Why We Fear the Things We Shouldn’t- social psychology.” I don’t deny that bit bothered psychologically by these -and Put Ourselves in Greater Danger. the concept has been influential. Nor contradictory beliefs. Dutton. do I deny that it has been extensively Finally, there must be many survivors Gilovich, Thomas. 1993. How We Know studied. What I see, however, when of the 9.0 earthquake and consequent What Isn’t So: The Fallibility of Human I look at the kinds of studies used to tsunami that devastated Japan on Reason in Everyday Life. Free Press. support the validity of the concept March 11, 2011, who believed in the Gilovich, Thomas. Dale Griffin and Daniel is a lot of confirmation bias and basic goodness of a god or of nature Kahneman. 2002. eds. Heuristics and something akin to the psi assumption in before that date. What predictions Biases: The Psychology of Intuitive parapsychology. about the beliefs of these people does Judgment. Cambridge University Press. The general form of the studies in cognitive dissonance make? And how Groopman, Jerome. MD 2007. How support of cognitive dissonance goes would a social scientist tease out the Doctors Think. Houghton Mifflin. like this: we predict that x will happen discomfort they must feel that is due Harmon-Jones, Eddie and Judson Mills, if we do y; if x happens when we do y to what happened to them, their loved editors. Cognitive Dissonance: Progress it is because of cognitive dissonance; x ones, and their neighbours and the on a Pivotal Theory in Social Psychology happened when we did y, so cognitive discomfort that is due to cognitive (American Psychological Association dissonance is confirmed. What I don’t dissonance? Would an fMRI help 1999). see is any attempt to formulate a test separate various forms of psychological Hyman, Ray. “The Mischief-Making of of the hypothesis that could falsify discomfort? Am I criticising hundreds Ideomotor Action,” in the Scientific the claim that cognitive dissonance of social scientists because I am made Review of Alternative Medicine 3(2):34- causes anything. Researchers even go psychologically uncomfortable by their 43, 1999. Originally published as so far as to claim evidence for cognitive theory since it conflicts with what I “How People Are Fooled by Ideomotor dissonance by finding activity (using an believe to be true? Am I relieving my Action.” fMRI) in the dorsal anterior cingulate cognitive dissonance by rejecting the Kahneman, Daniel. Paul Slovic, and cortex and anterior insula during a concept of cognitive dissonance? And Amos Tversky. eds. 1982. Judgment test that postulated that cognitive was I kind to my father not because I Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases dissonance was occurring when those loved him but because of the cognitive Cambridge University Press. parts of the brain showed activity (see dissonance I felt due to an Oedipus Kida, Thomas. 2006. Don’t Believe sidebar opposite). This reasoning seems complex? Would an fMRI settle the Everything You Think: The 6 Basic circular at best. It begs the question. Of question? . Mistakes We Make in Thinking. the innumerable possible explanations Prometheus. for seeing what was seen in the fMRIs, Levine, Robert. The Power of Persuasion - why should we assume they indicated NOTE: This article is reprinted with How We’re Bought and Sold (John Wiley cognitive dissonance? permission from the Skeptics Dictionary & Sons 2003). Finally, as we learn more about (www.skepdic.com). Sutherland, Stuart. 1992. rev. 2nd ed. the fundamental tendency of human Irrationality. Pinter and Martin. behaviour to be irrational much of the time, is there really a need for a theory About the author: like cognitive dissonance to explain Dr Bob Carroll is author why human beings are influenced to of The Skeptics Dictionary, do or believe the things they do? I and an investigator of assume most Christians believe that 1 controversial beliefs for + 1 + 1 = 3, yet many of them believe 50 years. 20 The Skeptic June 15

THE CS STUDY – HOW TO BE BORING

estinger and Carlsmith claimed to have found evidence for eleven students whose data was not included were rejected for Fcognitive dissonance in their 1959 study Cognitive Consequences a variety of reasons, but none of them was rejected because he of Forced Compliance. Their database consisted of data collected was an outlier. With a small group of only 20 students being on 71 male students in the introductory psychology course at averaged, a couple of outliers would skew the average. I’m not Stanford University who were “required to spend a certain number saying that is what happened in the $1 group, but just a couple of of hours as subjects in experiments”. (The data for 60 of the high ratings could account for the higher average than the other students was used in the final calculations, 20 subjects in each two groups. On the other hand, the difference in ratings might be of three groups. In other words, this was a very small study from due to something besides cognitive dissonance. Maybe it was due which no grand conclusions should have been drawn.) to psychic influence from a paranormal lab across the country. They spent an hour doing some boring, tedious task like Unlikely, sure, but the authors are just assuming the different turning pegs a quarter turn repeatedly. It was assumed that doing ratings can be explained by what they were trying to establish. I something pointless for an hour would generate a strong negative don’t know why the $1 group rated the boring task as significantly attitude regarding the task. It seems reasonable to assume that more enjoyable than the other two groups, but I’m not convinced you would be bored by the task, but whether you would develop a it had anything to do with cognitive dissonance. strong negative attitude toward Consider also that when the it seems questionable. After all, subjects were asked how much you are in a psych class, you’re they learned on a scale of 0-10, trying to learn something, and the groups rated themselves participation in an experiment is a about equally at about 3. If course requirement. the $1 group had rated their Anyway, after completing the learning at 5, would that have boring task for an hour, some been taken as evidence of of the subjects were asked to cognitive dissonance? talk to someone introduced as The stat I find the most another subject in the experiment, but actually an actor, and interesting, however, is the one regarding whether the subjects try to persuade him that the task was interesting and engaging. would participate in a similar experiment in the future. None of the Some subjects were paid $20; some were paid $1. (To most college groups was very enthusiastic about doing so, but the $1 group was students in 1959, $20 would have represented a small windfall. significantly more willing to do so than the other two groups. On Consider, however, that these are Stanford students in 1959, many a scale of -5 to +5, the $1 group averaged +1.2, while the control of whom may not have found much difference between $1 and and $20 groups averaged -0.62 and -0.025 respectively. Again, an $20.) One group of subjects was used as a control; these subjects outlier or two in the $1 group might be the main reason for the weren’t asked to talk to anybody about the task. difference in averages. Or there might be some other reason. At the end of the study, the subjects were asked to rate “how With such a small sample, it would seem reasonable to suspect enjoyable” the boring tasks were on a scale of -5 to +5. The that there might be some other difference between the $1 group average rating for the 20 students in the control group was -0.45; and the others that has nothing to do with cognitive dissonance. the average for those paid $20 was -0.05; and the average for In any case, even if this study were redone with the same results those paid $1 was +1.35. using 600 subjects, I would still question whether the differences This was explained by Festinger and Carlsmith as evidence should be explained by cognitive dissonance. Paying people for cognitive dissonance. The researchers theorised that people a little bit of money to do a trivial task and then lie about it to experienced dissonance between the conflicting cognitions, “I told someone else might not require any justification in the context of someone that the task was interesting” but “I actually found it a psychology experiment at Stanford University. After all, it’s just boring.” When paid only $1, students were forced to internalise the an experiment. Paying people a lot of money may have created attitude they were induced to express, because they had no other less incentive by making the task less enjoyable. A token payment justification. Those in the $20 condition, however, had an obvious may have created the illusion that the subjects were making an external justification for their behaviour, and thus experienced less important contribution to science. dissonance. The difference in results might also have been a fluke. The - Dr Bob Carroll 21 FEATURE Illogical Thinking S ng is Believing Peter Bowditch looks at confirmation bias, denialism and Morton’s Demon their general belief system they will accept it and consequently hold two contradictory opinions at the same time. The ability to hold two nyone who has ever done because they wanted to confirm their contradictory positions simultaneously A research will be familiar with the beliefs. and believe them both to be true is problem of confirmation bias - hearing Confirmation bias is rife in described by the word George Orwell what you want to hear. Anybody paranormal research, largely because invented for 1984, “doublethink”, doing research in the social sciences this research is carried out by true defined as “the power of holding two has to be constantly aware of the believers. While there have been contradictory beliefs in one’s mind possibility of confirmation bias, of cases of deliberate fraud, the most simultaneously, and accepting both selecting results and readings that fit common problem is testing until some of them”. Anyone who can practice the hypothesis and either ignoring or anomalous situation arises and then doublethink is going to be resistant eliminating things that don’t quite fit. stopping, claiming evidence of psychic to conflicting information because I don’t mean rejecting obvious outliers or paranormal powers. I was adjudged they can assimilate it without rejecting where the observations are so far from the most psychic person in the room at what they already know. the rest that a mistake can be assumed a skeptics’ function once, and I did this I want to finish by offering a – I mean shaving the results to suit by correctly calling a coin toss seven light-hearted explanation of this what the experimenter expects to find. times in a row. To a phenomenon This may not even be a conscious paranormal researcher of resistance to act, because doing it consciously this could be seen as Confirmation bias conflicting ideas. approaches fraud and most people are evidence of my super “ It’s called “Morton’s basically honest. powers but with about is rife in paranormal Demon” and was The classic case of confirmation 120 people in the room reseach, largely because first described by bias in the hard sciences is cold you would expect to Glenn Morton in fusion. Pons and Fleischmann found take six or seven tosses this reseach is carried 2002 as a means what they wanted to find and then to eliminate everyone. out by true believers. of explaining why stopped looking. In the social sciences The next stage is ” creationists will there was Cyril Burt’s just-too-good denial, where results or listen carefully to statistics about separated twins and data which contradict what you say and anthropologiost Margaret Mead’s beliefs are rejected. Again, this can be then completely ignore it. willingness to believe whatever some a totally unconscious matter, but to be In 1871, James Clark Maxwell young girls told her. In medicine true denial it has to be deliberate. suggested a thought experiment, now there was William McBride’s work on One aspect of denial is that often referred to as “Maxwell’s Demon”. Debendox. I don’t think any of these people will be presented with evidence Given two rooms separated by a people started out to do the wrong that conflicts with what they already molecule-sized door, a demon at thing, but they all did it anyway believe, but if it still agrees with the door could allow fast molecules 22 The Skeptic June 15

to go from room A to Room B and allow slow molecules to pass from B to A. This would eventually cause a ILLOGICAL WORDS temperature difference between the rooms which could be exploited to Peter Bowditch says words have meanings that do useful work. If the demon used no energy this would be a form of are often misunderstood. perpetual motion machine, violating the second law of thermodynamics. any readers will have the someone’s actions are in conflict with While this might convince someone Msame reaction as I have to the their beliefs or principles. The person who didn’t know how the universe appearance of the word “quantum” in then attempts to resolve the dissonance works, it was soon challenged on the discussions of alternative medicine and either by modifying what they do or by basis that the demon would in fact use the magic power of devices advertised rationalising or justifying the breach of energy to observe the molecules. This on late night television to cure principles. is an example of how science works – baldness or remove wrinkles. Back in The misuse of the term “cognitive if something is proposed which defies the day when they sold medications dissonance” that I continually see is what we know then the first thing to with radium in them and advertised its being used to describe a situation look for is why it might be wrong. that the radioactivity was a cure-all it where someone is offered correcting Believing Glenn Morton expanded the idea might have been accurate to say that information when they are saying of Maxwell’s Demon to explain the quantum effects were involved, but I something wrong or unscientific, resilience of nonsensical or wrong don’t think that you can say the same but refuse to change their mind. beliefs. He was particularly concerned thing about the sorts of things it’s legal Creationists don’t suffer any dissonance about young Earth creationists but his to sell today. I’ve seen quantum effects when offered evidence for evolution demon applies to a much wider class claimed as a possible mechanism for or the age of the Earth – they simply of people. homeopathy, but I think the only ignore it. Believers in homeopathy His demon sits at the front of the relationship is that a “quantum” is aren’t swayed by explanations of mind and filters incoming ideas, understood by a nuclear physicist chemistry or geometric progression; only letting in those with which the as almost unimaginably small, as is they would be placed in a dissonant person agrees and blocking the rest. the amount of active ingredient in a situation if they received real medicine This is much more powerful than homeopathic ‘medicine’. to treat an illness. any system where the ideas are tested I sometimes think that I am An example I see regularly is to say for compliance by the mind and required to misunderstand the that vaccine deniers have cognitive then rejected – they don’t even get expression “quantum leap” and to apply dissonance when presented with considered in the first place. I have it to dramatic changes. As a quantum evidence of the safety or efficacy of seen people repeat the same faulty leap is about the smallest distance that vaccines. In fact, they simply reject such arguments within minutes of being anything in the universe can travel information as being propaganda, or informed, with evidence, that they and make a difference I’m never very they produce some maverick ‘scientist’ are wrong. And I do mean minutes. impressed when someone offers it to who disagrees. They would have As these people appear to otherwise me as a measure of improvement in cognitive dissonance if forced to have be functioning human beings who something new. I was told that my new a vaccine for essential international can even tie their own shoelaces it computer was a quantum leap more travel, because this would be a case of a seems reasonable to infer that the powerful than the old one. When I conflict between action and belief. counterarguments are not even being started explaining that I wanted more All of this places me in a situation of perceived, let alone being evaluated than one such leap because I had many true cognitive dissonance, as it must do and rejected. more memory bits that needed state for a physicist offered ‘quantum hair Hmm. I think I see a thesis in changes and lots more screen pixels shampoo’*. The principle is to robustly cognitive psychology somewhere that needed exciting to make light, the correct the error; the action is to here. . salesperson’s eyes glazed over. maintain politeness. Sometimes this is I spent several years at university difficult, but if it was easy psychologists studying cognitive psychology and wouldn’t have to talk about cognitive at least once a week I’m exposed to dissonance at all. About the author: an incorrect use of the expression Peter Bowditch is a past “cognitive dissonance”. As the word * I made up the term “quantum hair president of Australian “dissonance” suggests, this is a discord shampoo”, but then I checked Google and Skeptics Inc. and a or disagreement between at least two actually found one! At least it’s only a brand self-confessed (and things. It is a form of psychological name and they don’t seem to be claiming that titled) ratbag. discomfort, usually arising because it cleans by quantum effects. 23 FEATURE Illogical It must BE True! Tyson Adams investigates an online claim about GM and autism, and in doing so reveals how to critically assess Internet articles

ust recently I was asked a question these bacteria supply our body with One earlier paragraph from the item Jon one of my climate change posts. crucial amino acids. Roundup thus says: “At a [recent] conference, in a The question, while not about climate kills beneficial gut bacteria, allowing special panel discussion about GMOs, change nor climate science, was about pathogens to grow; interferes with the she took the audience by surprise when similar anti-science nonsense that acts to synthesis of amino acids including she declared, ‘At today’s rate, by 2025, confuse and befuddle those who aren’t methionine, which leads to shortages one in two children will be autistic.’ familiar with the field. in critical neurotransmitters and folate; She noted that the side effects of autism The comment in full: chelates (removes) important minerals closely mimic those of glyphosate “I like your writing, I wish more like iron, cobalt, manganese; and much toxicity, and presented data showing would understand your logic when they more.’ a remarkably consistent correlation spout facts and relationships. If you have “I would love to know your take on between the use of Roundup on crops time please, an article [published online] that possible cause and effect. (and the creation of Roundup-ready comments” “Thank you for your time! GMO crop seeds) with rising rates of ‘Bacteria ... and plants use a seven- “Dennis autism. Children with autism have step metabolic route known as the “Reference : http://tinyurl.com/ biomarkers indicative of excessive shikimate pathway for the biosynthesis q547hzp” glyphosate, including zinc and iron of aromatic amino acids; glyphosate As background, the reference is deficiency, low serum sulfate, seizures, inhibits this pathway, causing the to an article titled “MIT Researcher: and mitochondrial disorder.” plant to die. ... Monsanto says humans Glyphosate Herbicide will Cause Half of Dennis has asked how likely it is don’t have this shikimate pathway, so All Children to Have Autism by 2025” that this sciency sounding article is it’s ... safe. ... Dr Seneff points out, which appears on the Health Impact correct. The short answer is that you however, that our gut bacteria do have News website. The MIT researcher in are more likely to get this week’s lottery this pathway, and that’s crucial because question is Stephanie Seneff. numbers from one of these articles 24 The Skeptic June 15

than any reliable facts. How can I be so consequence here, in this case autism] got fat while only eating celery sticks)? dismissive? Well, the thing is I’m not then you should be a tad suspicious. being dismissive, it just sounds like that Let’s ignore the fact about the THE EVIDENCE because my skeptical science eye has extensive safety testing. Let’s also Big claims require even bigger evidence. spotted many holes in the quote and ignore the fact that autism seems to Solid evidence. One thing I hate about article that you would swear they’d just be the disease de jour of the alt-health news sites is that they so often make come from an NRA convention. So let fearmongers, linked to everything from oblique references to a study that may us go through them like a rugby player GMOs to vaccines. Let’s also ignore the or may not have been published in a at an all-you-can-eat buffet fact that agrichemical safety and efficacy reputable journal, rather than just link have virtually nothing to do with the straight to the journal and paper in THE SOURCE safety and efficacy of individual GMOs question. In this case there is no link to The first thing to note is the source (GM and GE being another kettle of a journal, reputable or not, just links to of the article and the ‘expert’ cited fish entirely), despite what the article other unreliable sites such as The Mind within. There are some tell-tale signs tries to imply. Let’s also ignore that Unleashed and The Alliance of Natural that a webpage may be unreliable, glyphosate binds tightly Health USA webpage, as well such as when they use terms such as to organic matter and is as a Youtube video. So far I’m “truth”, “natural”, “alt” as a prefix to rapidly broken down in the underwhelmed. any word, and “health” as their names. environment so actual levels Remember, this article is Health Impact News isn’t the giveaway consumed will be reporting on Seneff’s here - it could be a legitimate source of negligible, and those claim that half of all information. In this case the giveaway amounts won’t be Tell-tale signs that people will be autistic is the byline “News that impacts your doing anything in “ by 2025 thanks to health, that other media sources may the digestive tract. a website may be herbicides. Half! This censor.” See: it’s a conspiracy! And Let’s just assume that unreliable - using terms is a condition that has conspiracy claims are always reliable (/ glyphosate is getting a median occurrence sarcasm). into our bodies and like ‘truth’ and ‘natural’.” of 62 cases per 10,000 If you check out the Web of Trust causing damage at people. The spectacular site that rates the reputation of other huge levels: what evidence is there to rise in autism that we should expect websites, you can see that Health suggest it is glyphosate and not any in the next decade for a herbicide Impact News perpetuates a number of other agrichemical or environmental that has been in wide use for many dubious and fraudulent claims, such toxin that has increased during the decades already would require a bit as vaccine myths from the anti-vaxxer same time period (eg coal pollution)? more evidence than “Well, we reckon.” nutters. Which means that the slant the What evidence is there to suggest there Seneff claimed a correlation between website is running is one that doesn’t has actually been any rise in maladies glyphosate use and a rise in autism. She respect scientific evidence. Not that this that aren’t as a result of something else clearly didn’t compare the rise in autism alone is enough to dismiss the claims. (because everyone knows that fat people to organic food - see the graph below. The other source is the ‘expert’ cited, Stephanie Seneff. To say that this computer scientist is out of her THE REAL CAUSE OF INCREASING AUTISM PREVALENCE? depth in the field of health, genetics and chemistry is like suggesting Justin Bieber’s music is appealing to people with taste. She makes all sorts of wacky and unfounded claims about herbicides, GMOs and Monsanto, so calling her an expert or citing her work should get you laughed out of any room you are standing in. THE CLAIM What the article claims is really the crux of the dismissal. When someone claims that the most extensively tested herbicide of all time, the safest agrichemical ever made, the most widely used agrichemical on the market, is responsible for [insert health 0325 FEATURE Illogical

It Must Be True Continued...

Well, if you dig further into the reference of the reference (seriously, how hard is it to cite your sources properly?) you will find an actual journal paper by Seneff and Samsel in a journal called Entropy. Have you heard of Entropy and is it recognised as a go-to journal for science on the topic of, well, anything? Nope. And what about the study itself which claims that just about every malady you can think of is linked to glyphosate, what evidence does it present? Well, pretty much none. To quote an article that reviews Seneff and Samsel’s study: “The evidence for is essentially non-existent, the claims Above Hyperbole, fear factor, ‘reliable’ these mechanisms, and their impact on made are not particularly plausible, source - online staples human health, is all but non-existent. and there is no evidence to support the The authors base their claim about CYP claims. enzymes on two studies, one of liver cells But this leaves us with a problem: two linked rebuttals (I’ll be adding this and one of placental cells, which report short of hours of research on each point one as well). This really helps to figure endocrine disruptions when those cells made, how do I confirm that these out whether the arguments presented are exposed to glyphosate. Neither study people are lying to me on the internet? are valid (although in this case a basic is CYP-specific. (The effect of pesticides Because you should be able to trust the application of logic should suffice). But on CYP enzymes, by contrast, has been internet, right? there were more rebuttals linked to the studied specifically.) As for the gut Seneff journal article, 7 of them. These bacteria, there appears to be no research THE REBUTTAL allow people to easily see the arguments at all on glyphosate’s effect on them.” The average person can’t be expected laid bare. (“Condemning Monsanto With Bad to be an expert in all topics, nor be Thus we can now see that the article Science Is Dumb”, Huffington Post, April expected to have the time to track can be dismissed as rubbish. A fair bit 2013, http://tinyurl.com/bn3s7lz) down and read every piece of science to of work to get there, but in the end we Yep. That is a rebuttal from a confirm an article is accurate. But there did it. Makes installing rbutr and Web Huffington Postarticle. Let that sink in are people on the internet who have of Trust in your web browser look like a for a moment. Even Huff Post doesn’t their favourite topics that they will write great option, doesn’t it. want to touch Seneff’s claims with a ten (or make videos) about. This means In the information age, ignorance is foot pole. you just have to search for rebuttals to a choice. But informing yourself isn’t as Samsel and Seneff didn’t conduct any articles. Google can be handy for this easy as just reading articles on subjects. studies. They don’t seem interested in if you are familiar with how to weed Using a critical eye, applying logic, and the levels at which humans are actually out the rubbish results. Joining forums accessing quality information has to exposed to glyphosate. They simply or following experts in various fields be done to avoid being misinformed. speculated that, if anyone, anywhere, can help as well (eg Skeptics Stack When all is said and done, evidence found that glyphosate could do anything Exchange, Science Based Medicine). wins. . in any organism, that thing must also be There are also webtools available to happening in humans everywhere. I’d help find good information. I’ve already like to meet the ‘peers’ who ‘reviewed’ mentioned Web of Trust above, but this. there are many others. About the author: So far we have found that the rbutr is one such tool that can Tyson Adams works in suspicions about this article are well- help with finding rebuttal articles science extension in the founded. The site is not reliable, the (disclaimer: I am involved with rbutr agriculture industry, and is an ‘expert’ cited is not reliable, the sources on social media). In the case of the administrator on the Skeptics cited are not reliable, the evidence cited Health Impact News article there were in Australia Facebook group. 26 T PUZZLES The Skeptic June 15

ACROSS Brain testers 1. 13 across is Greek to me but, when combined with 23 down, is a scary figure. (11) CRYPTIC CROSSWORD no 26 7. If this were now, it would call for immediate action. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Instead, it’s the House of Commons. (3) 9. A thousand and one in previous foreign friend. (5) M 10. The edge of sassiness. (3) 9 E 10 11 11. Post funeral function is in but don’t run to it. (5) 12. A measure is dismissed but it packs a wallop. (5) I 13. One kit I roam, going back to a cultural icon from 12 13 C across the ditch. (5,4) T Y 14. Ancient light is excellent place for ancient life. (7) 14 15 16 17 16. Madness caused an aim to go astray. (5) S 19. 18 The degree to which you will go in the swamp. (5) N A 21. Approval of a working bomb. (7) 19 20 A 21 22 24. Routine I’d change through learning. (9) 23P E 23 27. Fix a hundred in the way. (5) 24 25 26 27 28. Jetson’s dog starred in the last roundup. (5) L 29. Much land. (3) V 30. Improvisation of conservative promotion. (2,3) 28 29 30 J 31. The Queen is right! It’s a mistake! (3) 32. Fear of the night that a phobic Tony was bewildered. W (11) 31 32 A

Tim Mendham + Steve Roberts DOWN DR BOB’S QUIZ 1. Where to come in without a measure of spiritual control. (6) 2. The pupil is just the centre of a medical study that’s 1. Surstromming is a canned foodstuff, much prized in northern nonsense. (9) Scandinavia as the winter approaches. What looks unusual about 3. Tie up Edward to low quality wood. (7) the cans of it? 4. Mali’s in chaos when I hit religion. (5) 5 He fears that good news is bad news, but I hope 2. Why did very few people attend the funeral of Prokofiev, the Cuba is involved. (9) Russian composer?` 6. I’m into broken mains, full of spirits to worship. (7) 7. One time I was a virgin. (5) 3. What brilliant invention did Roman soldiers stationed in Egypt 8. Consumer of a human form of banal incorporated. (8) bring back to Rome? 15. Three men get into civil strife, becoming very nasty. (9) 4. What is ironic about Hercule Poirot’s reverence for “the little 17. An organisation for those suffering 32 across, or a place grey cells”? to go for fun. (11) 18. That’s not a muscle, it’s not. (8) 5. Who (or what) is (or was) the Complutensian Polyglot? 20. Undergraduate humour of the horned one. (7) 22 Declare the fruitfulness of official action. (7) 23. Fear that a food warmer can be found in protein interaction analysis. (6) 25. Say, completely. (5) Answers on page 62 26. The intro was poor, but overall it was explosive. (5)

0327 FEATURE Illogical Fooled Ya! When Skeptics go wild – how people have pulled science-based stunts on April Fool’s Days of yore.

he Museum of Hoaxes is T a treasure trove of unreal things, from strange animals and weird people to impossible photos and crazy inventions, all of them indicating how easily people are fooled, and ready to pass over critical thinking in favour of gullibility. In among the treasures is a list of 100 April Fool’s Day tricks. And yes, there’s the classic BBC documentary on spaghetti harvesting, and the one about the man who faked a volcanic eruption. But in there are many that use science and non-science as their basis. Read on, and maybe get a few hints for next year.

April 1, 2012 April 1, 2007 The British Library, on its Medieval Dan Baines posted images of an of April 1, Baines admitted it was all a Manuscripts Blog, announced the 8-inch, winged creature on his website hoax. He had made the fairy himself. “near-miraculous” discovery in its in late March 2007, explaining that (He was a professional prop maker.) archives of a long-lost medieval it had been found in Derbyshire by a But the public’s fascination with the cookbook that included a recipe for man walking his dog, and that it had creature refused to die. Many rejected how to cook a unicorn. “Taketh one eventually been brought to him for his confession, dismissing it as a cover- unicorne” began the instructions, and analysis, since he was known in the up to hide the real truth. Seven years then marinade it in cloves and garlic area as a paranormal expert. So what later, because of continuing interest in before finally roasting it on a griddle. was this thing? Baines speculated it the fairy, Baines successfully funded a The cookbook even included hand- might be a mummified fairy. Because “make your own mummified fairy kit” drawn illustrations, which the library the internet loves a mystery, the images on Kickstarter. reproduced, showing exactly how quickly went viral, with the result that the unicorn should be grilled. The by April 1 his site was receiving tens of compiler of the cookbook was said to thousands of visitors a day. Some wrote April 1, 1998 be one “Geoffrey Fule,” who worked in to him claiming they had found similar The New Mexicans for Science and the kitchens of Philippa of Hainault, creatures. Others were mad that he had Reason’s newsletter for April 1998 Queen of England from 1328-1369. revealed its location. But at the close contained an article claiming that the 280 The Skeptic June 15 Fooled Ya! 2012 1989 2007

1976

Patrick Moore

Alabama state legislature had voted to residents immediately called the police within a 5000km radius. This was change the value of the mathematical to warn them of an alien invasion. Soon good news for the British, who were constant pi from 3.14159 to the the police arrived on the scene, and to be guaranteed long summers with ‘Biblical value’ of 3.0. Before long one brave officer approached the craft rainfall only at night, but it turned out the article had made its way onto the with his truncheon extended before to be somewhat less good news for the internet, and then it rapidly made him. When a door in the craft popped rest of Europe, who would be stuck its way around the world, forwarded open, and a small, silver-suited figure with “whatever Pershore decides to by people via email. It only became emerged, the policeman ran in the send it”. One photo showed Prof Max apparent how far the article had spread opposite direction. The saucer turned Chisholm-Downright, inventor of the when the Alabama legislature began out to be a hot-air balloon that had weather machine, expressing “quiet receiving hundreds of calls from people been specially built to look like a UFO satisfaction as a computer printout protesting the legislation. The original by serial entrepreneur Richard Branson. announced sunshine in Pershore and a article, which was intended as a parody The stunt combined his passion for forthcoming blizzard over Marseilles”. of legislative attempts to circumscribe ballooning with his love of pranks. His Readers were assured that the machine the teaching of evolution, was written plan was to land the craft in London’s would produce only minor side effects, by physicist Mark Boslough. Hyde Park on April 1. Unfortunately, such as a “ten or twelve-foot rise in the wind blew him off course, and he mean sea level”. was forced to land a day early in the April 1, 1989 wrong location. Thousands of motorists driving on April 1, 1976 the highway outside London looked During an early-morning interview on up in the air on March 31, 1989 to April 1, 1981 BBC Radio 2, the British astronomer see a glowing flying saucer descending Much of The Guardian newspaper’s Patrick Moore announced that at on their city. Many of them pulled April 1, 1981 issue was given over 9:47 AM that day a once-in-a-lifetime to the side of the road to watch the to discussion of an exciting scientific astronomical event was going to occur. bizarre craft float through the air. breakthrough. Scientists at Britain’s Pluto would pass behind Jupiter, The saucer finally landed in a field on research labs in Pershore had developed and this planetary alignment would the outskirts of London where local a machine to control the weather temporarily counteract and lessen the 0329 FEATURE Illogical

Fooled Ya! Continued...

Earth’s own gravity. Moore told his listeners that if they jumped in the air at the exact moment the alignment occurred, they would experience a strange floating sensation. When 9:47 AM arrived, the station began receiving hundreds of phone calls from listeners claiming to have felt the sensation. One woman reported that she and her friends had risen from their chairs and floated around the room. Moore had 1972 intended his announcement to be a spoof of a pseudoscientific theory that had recently been promoted in a book called The Jupiter Effect, alleging that a rare alignment of the planets was going to cause massive earthquakes and the destruction of Los Angeles in 1982.

April 1, 1972 Newspapers around the world reported the sensational news that the dead body of the Loch Ness Monster had been found. A team of zoologists from Yorkshire’s Flamingo Park Zoo had come across it while working at the Loch. The researchers tried to take the Nessie corpse back to Yorkshire, but Scottish police promptly stopped them, citing an old law that made it illegal to remove “unidentified creatures” from Loch Ness. However, subsequent examination of the creature determined that it wasn’t actually Nessie. Instead, 1950 it was a large bull elephant seal from the South Atlantic. But how had it gotten to Loch Ness? This was revealed the next day when the Flamingo Park’s education officer, John Shields, confessed responsibility. The seal had died the week before at Dudley Zoo. He had shaved off its whiskers, padded its cheeks with stones, and kept it frozen for a week, before surreptitiously dumping it in the Loch, intending to play an April Fool’s prank on his colleagues. He admitted the joke got somewhat out of hand when the police became involved. (See the full story in The Skeptic, 34:4, p23) 1940 30 The Skeptic June 15

1955 of light (as shown in an illustration). release was then picked up by radio Similarly, if applied to a soldering iron station KYW whose announcers told or a hot plate, the devices would grow their listeners, “Your worst fears that freezing cold. Contra-polar energy the world will end are confirmed by technology was said to have been astronomers of the Franklin Institute.... developed during World War II, but had Scientists predict that the world will recently been declassified because of its end at 3pm Eastern Standard Time potential use to the general public. The tomorrow. This is no April Fool joke.” article elicited enormous interest from The public reaction was immediate. readers, with many writing in requesting Local authorities were flooded with more information. And they continued frantic phone calls. The panic only to do so for years, forcing the magazine subsided after the Franklin Institute to have to point out twice (in 1959 and repeatedly assured everyone that it had then again in 1963) that the subheading made no such prediction. The prankster of the article, which read “In keeping responsible for the press release turned with the first day of April,” should be out to be William Castellini, the taken literally. Institute’s press agent. He had intended to use the fake release to publicise an April 1st lecture at the institute titled April 1, 1950 “How Will the World End?” Soon The Wiesbadener Tagblatt of afterwards, the Institute dismissed him. Wiesbaden, Germany, announced that a flying saucer had crashed nearby 1708 and ran a photo of a small, one-legged April 1, 1708 extraterrestrial that had supposedly been A previously unknown London found near the wreckage by American astrologer named Isaac Bickerstaff soldiers. The article elicited so many published an almanac in Feburary inquiries that the paper had to publish 1708 in which he predicted the death a disclaimer several days later. But the by fever of the famous rival astrologer career of the hoax was far from over. An John Partridge on March 29 of that unknown informant sent a clipping of year. Partridge indignantly denied the the photo to the FBI, and the agency prediction, but on March 30 Bickerstaff duly filed it away, mistakenly labelling it released a pamphlet announcing that a “Martian in the USA”. Three decades he had been correct: Partridge was later, the agency passed the photo along dead. It took a day for the news to to UFO researcher Barry Greenwood, settle in, but soon everyone had heard and through him it made its way into of the astrologer’s demise. And so, on the influential 1980 book The Roswell April 1st the joke came to full fruition Incident, whose authors presented it to when Partridge was woken by a sexton readers as genuine evidence of contact outside his window wanting to know with UFOs. The photo, on account if there were any orders for his funeral of being in this book, is credited with sermon. As hard as he tried, Partridge Jonathan Swift playing a large role in popularising couldn’t convince people that he wasn’t the idea of extraterrestrials as “little dead. Bickerstaff, it turned out, was a grey men”. The Wiesbadener Tagblatt pseudonym for the satirist Jonathan photographer who created the image Swift (picture left) with later additions April 1, 1955 subsequently revealed that the alien was by essayists Richard Steele and Joseph Popular Electronics’ April 1955 issue actually his five-year-old son (heavily Addison. Swift’s prank worked so well included an article about “contra-polar doctored and airbrushed) posing with that Partridge was eventually forced to energy” - a kind of negative energy that, soldiers from the local US base. stop publishing almanacs, unable to so it was claimed, would cause electrical shake his reputation as the man whose devices to produce the opposite effect death had been foretold. . of what they normally would do. For March 31, 1940 instance, if contra-polar energy were Philadelphia’s Franklin Institute issued More April Fool’s Day tricks at the applied to an ordinary table lamp, a press release declaring that the world Museum of Hoaxes, http://hoaxes.org/ the bulb would cast darkness instead would end the following day. The aprilfool. 31 ARTICLE Interview Carrying A Big Stick

One funny man to another, Maynard talks with comedian Tim Ferguson on science fiction, skeptics, multiple sclerosis and homeopaths.

im Ferguson is a member of the highly successful “renegade comedy trio” Q: And where’s the proof of this? T the Doug Anthony All Stars, as well as a successful author and TV host. But on a TV program in 2010 he revealed that he had multiple sclerosis, and Oh Maynard, step back from that he had been suffering symptoms of the disease for years prior. that ‘proof-and-fact’ cliff. We Late last year he told the Adelaide-based entertainment website ripitup. are dealing partly with positive com.au why he decided to ‘come out’ when he did: “I got sick of making thinking about the hookworms. up stories about what happened to my leg - everything from shark attack, But also I quite often receive an being shot in Afghanistan, and ‘I went to dinner with Hillary Clinton’. So email about someone whose name I thought I might as well come out with it. Everybody seems inordinately is Mandy Simpson or Melanie interested and it will be the best way to stop the conversation with strangers in Sassafras or anything that has the the street.” initials M and S. They tell me this But that conversation stopper hasn’t meant he is isolated from the world. woman has been miraculously Far from it. The DAAS has reformed for a new tour, with long time Skeptic cured from what’s known as Paul ‘Flacco’ Livingstone replacing Richard Fidler, who has made a career for repeating relaxing MS, as in it himself on ABC Radio’s Conversation program. comes and out goes, it comes back The conversation – much of it one way – has also involved a plethora of and it goes away. And I’m told, alt med proponents spruiking their treatment and cures. And Ferguson is not hand on heart, that hookworms pleased. have cured this woman, but over “I get this crap all the time. People seem to think that because MS is a a year from something that comes condition that neurologists don’t have an answer for, there could only be a and goes. whack-job solution to the problem. I’ve been offered hookworms – worms that With these kinds of morons, are shaped like hooks. If I ingest them simply by drinking them I will find normally I would be kind of cheery that there are miraculous results that will cure MS.” and happy and laugh them off, but 32 The Skeptic June 15

these people are doltish to the point Q: If “like cures like” as homeopathy an interesting contradiction. You find of its being offensive, if only because goes, what was he going to give you as high IQ people who follow Star Trek they’re trying to push their ridiculous a small amount of MS to cure MS? and Star Wars and the higher your IQ notions upon me. I’ve got MS, I take goes the less likely you are to ingest drugs that deal with it. Maybe they I think it was something called DDT. hookworms or believe what someone work, maybe they don’t, but I’m not is trying to tell you. going to drink a cupful of worms to Q: Tim, you’re a big science fiction try and fix the problem. And if I am, fan, but are you also a science fan? Q: You’re reviving the Doug Anthony I want to see them drink a cupful of Do you like to watch science shows? All Stars after 20 years. Do you think worms first. comics naturally have to be skeptics Yeah, I like watching space ones. The because they take the piss out of Q: Would you be the kind of guy who recent one, Cosmos, that was terrific, everything? would take a pharmaceutical drug as and such a great way to express the a test, and give that a go? history of our understanding of space. There are Christian comics. I’ve seen I like David Attenborough. I’m not them, and they can write a gag as well No, no, I figure let some other so interested in podcasts like the guy as anybody else, so no, I would say monkey do the testing; they’ve got the who talked about the nature of ions you could be a believer or you could time. I just want a neurologist to say, for about an hour. It was kind of be a non-believer. The main thing given all the testing this is something interesting but you can’t use it to pick about comedy is you’re trying to set that will arrest the condition, which is up girls. up a surprise that has some kind of as good as the drugs get. truth that your audience will basically It’s incurable, and it only goes one Q: What you can use to pick up agree with. You can do this from any way which is down, but some of the girls is science fiction. What’s your religious standpoint, and while it may drugs seem to arrest this spiral. favourite science fiction? Are you a not be funny for a non-believer to see The other thing that drives me nuts Battlestar Galactica fan or are you a Christian comic, it works the other is, of course, homeopaths. I’ve had a more of a Star Wars guy? way as well. professional homeopath - which is a contradiction in terms – contact me I’m a classicist when it comes to Q:Finally, do you think we’ll ever to say I should try homeopathy for Battlestar Galactica. The new series is see you protesting something like my condition. When I expressed some all very well but they’ve just taken the homeopathy in the streets, outside names and there’s of some shop? nothing else in common. Nobody’s Well, I think it was on Bunga Bunga, going to replace our podcast, when I came up with Lorne Greene [star the perfect response when someone of the original offers me homeopathic treatments. 1970s series]. I’ve I say, I did take the treatments, and met Edward James they gave me multiple sclerosis. And Olmos several if they say, “No, no it didn’t”, I’ll just times, he’s a really say, prove it. . nice guy, but who can fit the boots of a man who can First presented on the Skeptic Zone sing. #316

Q: Do you think The new DAAS: Flacco, Tim and Paul MacDermott there’s a crossover between science skepticism this homeopath – and let’s fiction fans and skeptics? call them something awful, like “a homeopath” – he responded that I They seem to be people who enjoy wasn’t only a skeptic, but that I had a fantasy that is so ludicrous that closed mind. This began a tirade from it is within the bounds of reason. me that went over several messages, Normally you don’t find Christians About the author: after which I never heard from him getting into science fiction so Maynard is a radio ever again. I hope he died in a ditch obsessively as that would contradict personality and reporter for with a pill of nothing in his hand. the believing parts of their brain. It’s the Skeptic Zone podcast. 0333 ARTICLE Ufology

Vicente-Juan Ballester Olmos asksA Modest if we can ever get convincing evidence for UFOs. Proposal

n a workshop held in July last it – my view – because there is not any my personal dedication and approach Iyear looking at the collection and genuinely new phenomenon in progress? to the UFO study, cleverly advocates assessment of evidence for unidentified It is evident that we can attest a for a “platform of screened, calibrated aerial phenomena* organised by the failure in finding either long-lived data”. I would be the first to hand my French Centre National d’Etudes statistical constants or admissible own FOTOCAT databank3 to any such Spatiales, Dr Jacques Vallée delivered extraordinary evidence (material, repository. But the key problem here is an interesting lecture entitled “UAP: A recorded or observational) for a brand the screening. Beyond the preliminary, Strategy for Research”1. Vallée presented new type of physical or para-physical simple discrimination of aircraft, stars a good historical background to UFO entity manifesting in our environment. and planets, balloons, fireballs, reentries, databases as a basis to develop a number What if UFOs were something more missile launches and so forth, we should of future avenues of research. linked to our inner world than to the agree on a second-level screening. The paper highlights that after 68 outer world? What if this wouldn’t have And here is where ideology or belief years of modern UFO history, we do to do with complexity at all? What if it commences to affect the process. not know anything about the nature of were simply due to the fact that we are As I have walked myself the route an alleged UFO/UAP phenomenon. At actually handling a phenomenon where from expectancy to open-minded this day, we are still starting from zero, an infinite number of causes, stimuli, skepticism, I know firsthand what because all basic questions regarding objects and processes, both natural I am talking about. It is sort of an the phenomena are open and none is and artificial (man-made) conjure up intellectual chip you must change: from yet resolved, as Vallée points out by the false impression that every sighting imagining that the witness words (and outlining a list of crucial “unanswered belongs to a unique whole? beliefs) truly reflect the reality of a given questions” that appertain to key topics We cannot forget that UFOs were observation, to the conviction that like search for patterns, physics of the tagged extraterrestrial by press and the error bar in the witness testimony phenomenon, geography, socio-cultural paperback authors (a theory currently is very long. Surprise, fear, mistaken impact, effect on human witness, and accepted by most ufologists) long before senses, imagination, tall tale propensity, methodology & epistemology. it was academically studied. Even the publicity seeking, you name it, may Is it ‒ as Vallée proposes in the section popular flying saucer form and motif produce intriguing stories that do not “Obstacles to Analysis” ‒ because “the that shaped millions of further reports relate to what actually occurred. But phenomenon has demonstrated a level may have been originally wrong, created here the big divide emerges. Surely an of complexity that challenges analysis by headline writers.2 ambulance driver cannot mistake the and even rational description”? Or is Vallée, whose early work inspired moon for a UFO.4 A well-established 34 The Skeptic June 15

X scientist cannot invent a close new one is revamped. Through encounter.5 Experienced a scientific approach, when airplane pilots cannot we analyse UFO reports and misinterpret flying objects.6-9 propose a hypothesis (Venus, an A military man cannot fake a aircraft, the Moon, a re-entry, UFO photograph.10 You hear faked photographs, etc) we try that both from fanatic, gullible to demonstrate this is a suitable and credulous ufologists or at least a coherent hypothesis and from scientific-oriented to explain the occurrence students. They cannot admit (assisted by astronomical data, Jacques Vallee, it, in contradiction to their long time UFO/ space records, or technical adherence to the recognised UAP investigator analysis). A different approach mantra that establishes is taken by most ufologists who that “most sightings are ‒ instead of seeing UFO reports explainable.” just as neutral ‘anomalies’, a What is the real full range of But I agree with Vallée that stand we can accept ‒ assume that UFO observational error and human progress requires diving into the major reports are examples of vehicles coming conduct associated to UFO sightings? databases, and also that the search for from the stars, a parallel universe, time A Modest It represents the core of the enigma patterns should be one of the most travelers, etc. But this is presented because the evidence shows that sane, important exercises in 21st century without any kind of verification, other sober people spin tales, fool and deceive ufology/UAP study. Patterns need to be than a personal speculation or hope. fellow humans, and that well-trained systematically compared with the IFO (Nothing to do with the concept of the people misinterpret unexpected objects database to test their originality and high probability of extraterrestrial life in or natural phenomena much more often robustness, ie checking the problem of the universe, generally endorsed by the Proposal than might be imagined. When you indiscernibility.15 astrophysical community.) finally realise that this is not a rhetorical In modern-day science we can find For me, and this is not a question, then your mind is able to papers showing different findings preconception but an empirical contemplate sightings under another when working with the same set of conclusion, ufology must be an wavelength, and reports start to fall one raw data, but rarely eyewitness-centered after another as a house of cards. And opposite results. Core of the enigma - research, not report- flying saucer reports look like just an On the contrary, “ centered. In the study epiphenomenon associated to a certain this is exactly the evidence shows of UFO photographs, mental mode. what happens in that sane, sober people for example, this is So we are back to the old garbage ufology. By working quite evident. We in – garbage out anthem, after all. How fundamentally with spin tales and deceive examine a story and a do you quantify reliability for a top the same type of fellow humans. picture. After lots of professional who reports an abduction? reports (no one ” work on the analysis of How do you class an event that ends disagrees about the the presumed sighting, up being the star Sirius? Not something universality of UFO reporting), French we find out that the image is unrelated to I dismiss, as I was one who actively colleague J.F. Boëdec concludes that the any visual observation, as it turns out to worked on defining standards in this record points to “a novel phenomenon be just an accidental image, a film flaw regard11, a system presently adopted with stable patterns, independent of or some sort of fake that photography by the largest UFO organisation in the group delusion”16, while my own study experts can reveal. We work in a field world, the US-based MUFON.12 over four decades infers that probably where the witness is both the recording there is not a new phenomenon but apparatus and the reporting station, SEARCH FOR PATTERNS a summation of explanations within most is subjective. We are guilty ‒ after Nowadays, when enough data have been a chaotic universe of data where so many years ‒ of not having noticed acquired and many research papers have misunderstanding and inadvertence the chief role played by the observer, full been published on them, we have the figure significantly. Absence of verified of conditioning properties. means and the know-how to reevaluate data and distorted data collection can Vallée is still energised and optimistic past patterns. The “law of the times” has explain the ‘unknowns’. about the future of research. I am also proved to be nothing but a consequence There is another fundamental energised but pessimistic, although of the combination of social habits and difference between the ways science and certainly willing to develop databases, observation conditions13 and the “inverse ufology operate. In science one shows organise the information and check correlation” between UFO reports and a set of facts and proposes a hypothesis hypotheses. But, realistically, how can we population density, as initially designed, to rationalise them. It remains valid agree on a definitive screening process? is an incorrect model.14 until new events contradict it and a Vallée suggests that an international 0335 ARTICLE Ufology

A Modest objective findings. 5. Irwin Wieder, “The Willamette Pass Oregon Some of us have already reached UFO Photo Revisited: An Explanation”, Proposal tentative or final conclusions after a long- Journal of Scientific Exploration, Vol. 7, No. term study. It can satisfy us personally but 2, 1993, pp. 173-198. http://tinyurl.com/ Continued... I am convinced that many would also kxscbdq like to see a globally-accepted solution 6. H.H. Nininger, “Air Pilots and ‘Meteor to the UFO/UAP enigma, either as the Hazards’”, http://tinyurl.com/mkaunmf cadre of experienced students creates manifestation of ETI contact or as a 7. James Oberg, “Case Studies in Pilot new data structures. At this stage my social myth with no physical basis. In Misperceptions of UFOs”, http://tinyurl. cooperation is full and my resources his noteworthy paper, Vallée writes: com/lztop8h plainly available. In summary, Vallée’s “Ufology has no ontology.” But what 8. GEIPAN, “Reentrée Atmosphérique 5 strategy (2014) implies a complete if “Ufology has no substance” instead? Novembre 1990”, http://tinyurl.com/ re-examination of the UFO/UAP UFO/UAP phenomena have been with ma7jzyy phenomena, it encompasses a full review us at least from 1947. Mainstream science 9. Manuel Borraz Aymerich, “Venus, tráfico of the history of UFO events from top has dismissed it. Governments have no identificado”, http://tinyurl.com/ to bottom, a job to be done by ourselves released their past classified archives to ldecdqb (with our biases and emerging ideas), the amateurs. The military announced 10. “North Mountain Summer 1966”, in and a job that will exceed our own life- it is not their cup of tea. As Vallée Scientific Study of Unidentified Flying times. Is that a realistic scenario? But are recommends, it is time for designing a Objects, Daniel S. Gillmor (ed.), E.P. Dutton there any alternative strategies? brand new strategy to avoid 70 more years & Co., Inc. (New York), 1969, pp. 270-273, of ignorance and frustration. I believe a files.ncas.org/condon/text/case07.htm THE SELECTIVE STRATEGY global discussion is required in order to 11. V.J. Ballester Olmos and M. Guasp, I offer an alternate, more viable push the optimal strategy. . “Standards in the Evaluation of UFO strategy. Let us select the best ~100 Reports,” in The Spectrum of UFO worldwide instances of well-documented *CAIPAN (la Collecte et l’Analyse Research, Mimi Hynek (editor), J. Allen or potentially documentable air or des Informations sur les Phénomènes Hynek Center for UFO Studies (Chicago, ground-level anomalies that describe a Aérospatiaux Non-identifiés) workshop Illinois), 1988, pp. 175-182. See also: phenomenon whose features seem to organised by GEIPAN (French CNES). http://tinyurl.com/kjytq96 defy current knowledge, point to an 12. mufoncms.com/cgi-bin/bge/bge.pl alien visitation or suggest an alteration in Note:This article was initially published 13. Julio Plaza del Olmo, “Modeling the law the space-time continuum. on the author’s blog - www.academia. of times”, Journal of Scientific Exploration. Let us look for scientists in the edu/11170842/The_Future_of_Ufology, Accepted for publication (2015). universities, industry, government or and is reprinted with permission. 14. Julio Plaza del Olmo, “A review on the the military who have the expertise and relation between Population density volunteer to investigate them in depth. REFERENCES and UFO sightings”, Journal of Scientific Or finance a fund to reimburse them 1. http://tinyurl.com/lq7zwsa Exploration. In review (2015). for the job (crowdfunding or other). 2. Herbert Strentz, A Survey of Press 15. Denys Breysse, “La durée des Not any Condon-styled committee Coverage of Unidentified Flying Objects, Phénomènes ovni: aide à la but a contracted large group of 1947-1966 (a PhD dissertation in discernabilité”, OVNI - Presence, 32, 1984- professionals based in several countries journalism), Northwestern University 1975, pp. 22-34. who invest their best capabilities in (Evanston, Illinois), June 1970. 16. Jean-François Boëdec, “Les Études analysing hard-core cases. Scientists and 3. Managed by V.J. Ballester Olmos, FOTOCAT Localisées de PAN”, CAIPAN Workshop, scholars unrelated to UFO research and is a computer catalogue of worldwide Poster No 28 (Paris), July 2014. independent. UFO/IFO sightings including images Although limited in scope, it seems captured on film, picture, cine, video ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS more practical than Vallée’s strategy or digital format. An Excel spreadsheet Thanks are due to Julio Plaza del Olmo and because ‒ if funds are in place ‒ it could contains almost 12,000 entries (27 data Martin Shough for useful comments. be resolved in a maximum of 10 years, columns for every entry) for events soon enough for many of us to see. occurred up to December 31, 2005 (with The role of the cadre of experienced some national or theme exceptions.) An researchers Vallée described is archive for paperwork documentation About the author: paramount in this project, in two main supports this case index. See: fotocat. Vicente-Juan Ballester areas: the coordination of the whole blogspot.com/ Olmos is a retired program; and to prepare a synthesis of 4. Juan Carlos Victorio Uranga, ”Ambulancia project analyst who has all written bibliography generated on “perseguida” por un extraño fenómeno been investigating UFO this topic, focused on scientific and aéreo”, http://tinyurl.com/mmheaqv phenomena since 1966. 36 ARTICLE UFO Interaction The Skeptic June 15 The ALIEN BRAIN Have you been ‘investigated’ by an alien being? Sydney Bockner suggests the evidence points to a neurological explanation.

magine waking in the dead of I night to hear padding footsteps in your bedroom. You have a sense of a malevolent presence in the room, and you may hear breathing. Even more & Roth, 1955). The neurosurgeon paralysis may be rationalised as the frightening, you find yourself paralysed, Cairns (1942) includes the condition alien’s ability to immobilise the human unable to move a muscle. The footsteps in the disturbances of consciousness subject to allow them to be examined. seem to approach you, then you feel with lesions of the brain stem and In the dream-like state the subject may someone or something touching your diencephalon. include alien abduction, particularly body. Light fingertip pressure moves Hallucinations (false sensations in view of the sensation of levitation. over your chest, abdomen, genitals. without an external stimulus) occur Some subjects report that aliens create a You are still motionless, except for your in this condition, and they are often mental block causing amnesia. breathing. Try as you might you cannot elaborate and terrifying. The night According to SA UFO enthusiast open your eyes or move your limbs. terrors of childhood appear to be of a Colin Norris, “Aliens can cloud the You may experience a strange sensation similar nature. The sensation of one’s minds of humans”. In this clouded or of levitation. Then all goes blank. body being palpated and examined, and amnesic state some subjects may believe You awaken a little later, able to move the sounds of footsteps and breathing that they were abducted, examined and normally. The room is silent and dark. are hallucinations. experimented upon. Aliens, it seems, This strange phenomenon is due This hallucinatory state is the result have a penchant for experimentation on to a neurological condition called of a dissociation of consciousness, humans, especially in the sexual sphere sleep paralysis. Russell Brain (1947) akin to dreaming when the subject is (pun intended). describes it as the outcome of a failure partially awake, known as hypnagogic Thus disorders of the mechanism of the uniform spread of sleep over hallucinations. of sleep may account for some of the the nervous system. Levels concerned It may be noted that the condition myths of alien adventures. . with consciousness remain awake is the converse of somnambulism (sleep when the motor and postural levels walking). In this latter condition the This classic catch article is reprinted from have fallen asleep, or conversely are conscious mind is asleep, while motor The Skeptic, Spring 1998, Vol 18, No 3. awakening before them. In an article control in the brain is awake. on sleep (1939), Brain describes the In sleep paralysis the subject is REFERENCES condition as a splitting of function awake but there is some clouding Brain, Russell W. (1947) - Diseases of the of the sleep centre in the brain, with of consciousness. This may result in Nervous System, 3rd Ed. 861-862 the body asleep and the mind awake. irrational thinking. In the light of day Brain, Russell W. (1939) - Brit.Med. J. ii,51 This unequal distribution of sleep was the majority of subjects will dismiss Mayer-Gross,W, Slater,E, Roth,M. (1955) - described on ABC Radio by physicist these ideas. But a few more imaginative Clinical Psychiatry, Cassell, London, 13 Paul Davies as “lucid dreaming”. The persons may elaborate and rationalise Cairns, H. (1942) - Brain 75,109,439-440 condition is not usually due to organic their night experience. disease of the brain, although it may Thus the concept of alien encounters About the author: occur in lesions of the posterior part of arises, particularly in view of the media At time of writing, Sydney Bockner was an the hypothalamus (Mayer-Gross, Slater hype on this subject. The terrifying Adelaide-based psychiatrist. 0337 ARTICLE UFO Culture UFOs-The First Steve Roberts thinks alien encounters are as much yrs influenced by the evidence on the screen than the 50 evidence in the sky.

o a little mathematics: spread D the fingers of one hand; let each finger point at a different person; count all the fingers of those people. Since the first UFO story was told, our planet has orbited its star that many times, but still we only have stories. Those who tell the stories have failed to produce supporting evidence of adequate quality for general belief. However, not only do the stories definitely exist, they have been independently recorded for us ... by the movie industry. Movies, after all, reflect rather than determine popular culture, as an obscure story in about 1980 and THE ALIEN VISION and in alien terms that’s largely the did not feature prominently until the Before 1947, after which UFOs were American culture, where 80 per cent of 1990s. Now the exploiters are making considered to be spacecraft, the few reported alien abductions occur. a living out of them. Likewise, the UFOs seen tended to be made of Movies are a ready indicator of half-century since Kenneth Arnold’s everyday materials such as wood and Earthling culture, and can be recalled seminal sighting of 24 June 1947 can cloth. unchanged be readily divided up Ezekiel (600 BC) saw men, wheels and reviewed into six points of time a and fire. American sightings of UFOs objectively many “ People were more decade apart. in 1896-7 were described (and drawn) years later. Not so concerned the UFOs So, after half a as an airship, no other flying objects immutable are the century of this tiresome having been invented at the time. stories of UFOs. should have opening phenomenon, let us Not only were the materials of these The rewriting of windows so the aliens view the evolution of primordial UFOs limited to what was history by the could look out. UFOs, aliens and their well known, so was the technology, with UFO subculture ” messages at each decade little interest being shown by humanity is an interesting of the late 20th century, in how the darn things might be able example of the ebb and flow of belief first through movie culture and then to fly. systems. For example the Roswell through the UFO reports that have People were more concerned that the ‘crashed saucer’ incidents of 1947-48 wasted so much popular time and UFOs should have opening windows were dismissed at the time, resurrected attention. so that the aliens could look out and 38 The Skeptic June 15

maybe get some fresh air. Unlike the craft, sightings of pre- 1947 alien beings stretch back into prehistory - we can include gods, devils,

succubi, and ghosts. However, none of Image: US NNSA/NSO 50s these generally had attitudes towards humanity or messages for us. After the 1947 and 1948 UFO flaps, s things changed rapidly and before the UFO -The First first movies on this theme came out in about 1952, the UFO phenomenon had blossomed, died down and become a laughing stock all round. We had become UFO-aware, and already skeptical. yrs In 1947 movie science fiction was in its infancy. Typical movies of the pre- UFO culture that bear on the subject 50 included Flash Gordon and the cartoon Marvin the Martian, with its aliens that looked like ourselves (saving on special effects) with small but bizarre differences - the aerial on top of the head. Of course, the aliens came from 60s planets with breathable atmospheres, naturally spoke English, wore shirts and trousers and were chauvinistic towards females. They were so like us. A decade later, by 1957 a whole swag of flying-saucer films had been made, most of them cheaply made. But a few, such as The Day the Earth Stood Still (1951) have become icons of popular culture. Even now, who cannot repeat with joy “Klaatu barada nikto?” Well, perhaps some benighted people can’t. Anyway, the shiny flying saucer and mighty alien robot from that film have featured on LP covers (including Ringo 70s Starr’s “Goodnight Vienna”), the posters of the film sell at high prices, and the film is still watched with respect. [As opposed to the 2008 remake, where Keanu Reeves nonetheless insisted on the inclusion of the “Klaatu” phrase. –

Ed] Photo: Nick Ut The UFOs reported in the 1950s tended to be of riveted, unpainted sheet metal, contemporary with our own aircraft at the time. Their technology was more accessible to our understanding – almost knowable, but just out of reach. It was the sort of thing that we would be developing twenty years later when, indeed, electrical engineering student colleagues of mine made a look-alike flying saucer for a 39 ARTICLE UFO Culture

UFOs- why we had so many atom bombs when about aliens and was called Close we weren’t fighting any wars. Encounters of the Third Kind; it gave The first 50yrs The 1960s UFOs also showed rise to its own UFO flap. Comparing marked improvements and now Stephen Spielberg’s cinematic Continued... were typically of moulded plastic confection with its precursors of twenty construction, with smooth curved years before, it reflected a far kindlier surfaces. Human imagination had attitude by humans to ETs and vice project. (It even hovered and moved widened so much that the UFO versa. Everybody empathised and along, above a steel plate, using heavy propulsion technology had leapt ahead became touchy-feely; nobody got shot induction coils and incurring a vast and now belonged about 50 years ahead at. It was also far better made than electricity bill.) of its time - slightly ahead of what previous efforts, and the box-office The aliens reported (and often we could have now. The typical pre- returns of this investment showed that photographed) in the 1950s wore, like hippie aliens were beautiful humanoid there was now big money in UFOs. us, the neat shirts and baggy trousers characters having long, blond hair The alien craft of the 1970s had and short-back-and-sides greasy and a serene expression. They wore evolved from mysterious shapes of hairstyles of contemporary human one-piece jump suits made of some plastic to realistic shapes resembling fashion. They also wore the same incomprehensible high-tech silvery our own aircraft; we were getting chauvinism, females being generally material. fussier about our science (except that dismissed as insignificant by aliens The aliens’ attitude was no longer film-makers and UFO devotees alike and humans alike. Contemporary commanding but more like advising; often forgot that aerodynamic styling earthling culture included a post-war we ourselves had evolved politically is not necessary in outer space). UFO acknowledgment of military rank and and were no longer ready to obey every propulsion technology was understood power; therefore the aliens commanded command. to be far in advance of our own; based us, and we listened with fear and respect. They spoke in soft, reasonable on atomic fusion, for example - the sort They had dictatorial messages for voices. Messages to humanity were still of thing that humanity might achieve in humanity, such as “stop fighting wars”. patronising, but not in an aggressive 2100 with considerable effort. In the movies, when this attitude got manner; “stop testing atom bombs” Generally the aliens were willing to too exasperating or on suspicion that reflected a contemporary obsession transfer their advanced technology to the aliens might be Communists (eg Red of our politicians and military. us, and now without preconditions; Planet Mars, 1952), the earthlings would Sometimes the aliens offered to give in human culture, barmy theories of start to shoot at the aliens with pistols; their advanced technology to us, if we physics were appearing in quantity. sometimes the aliens retaliated, with a could exhibit a bit more maturity. We By the 1970s aliens had undergone ray gun, and shot more accurately. were as inquisitive children playing with a transition from the beautiful, brainy By 1967 our political and social fireworks, handling power beyond our beings towards a more grotesque form climate had changed considerably, and intellect and consequently in some great seen in the films Star Wars (1977), our UFOs reflected this new happiness. but unknown danger. Alien (1979) and later The Thing and Our society was fertile for the hippie Then our society moved along to ET (both 1982). It is indicative of revolution; a military-versus-civilian 1977 and the aliens changed with us. Spielberg’s genius that he depicted ETs schism had opened, with people asking The big movie of 1977 was actually more in the style of the later 1980s, or 80s

40 The Skeptic June 15

that his films drove this to happen. The less physical evidence for UFOs than - Stanton Friedman and many others aliens also began to warn us instead usual, abductions began to catch on making a living by charging $20 a of instructing us: “Stop polluting (stories that avoid the need for evidence) seat for lectures of the same tired old the planet”, again reflecting the and conspiracies began to be detected material; skilful handling of the media contemporary concern of humanity. (stories that are actually generated and makes every hall fill up. There is a 1-900 A period of confusion followed and supported by the lack of evidence). The number where you can report UFO by 1987 we did not really know where Roswell story reappeared, in obscure sightings or listen to them, but you pay we were going. Culture, development, form, as a conspiracy. heavily for the call. fashion, pop music and even the Apologists were 1997: The central Alien technology UFO phenomenon all fell into a sort driven into saying “ is now taken to of suspended animation as humanity that UFOs were a tenet of the time is that be far, far ahead pursued a relentless greed. Space movies psychic phenomenon, the public are being of anything we also went through a lean time. not a physical one. could comprehend The very few aliens that were And so to 1997 wilfully deceived by (Contact, 1997); but reported in the 1980s - we were too and what have we the authorities. the aliens themselves interested in ourselves - tended to be as the 20th century ” have become just small, grotesque, naked beings evoking draws to a close? ordinary folk, from sympathy rather than fear. They had Contemporary movies include Men a society remote but like our own. human-type weaknesses, which even In Black (1997), an excellent example They reflect humanity’s passions and allowed us to have condescending of the art of special effects that should fears; but now these have become attitudes towards them; recall that ET’s be seen by anyone who thinks that the unpleasant. The aliens have lost interest spacecraft took off without him. The 1995 alien autopsy film might have been in helping us, advising us or in sharing aliens’ attitude was more sympathetic hard to make. The central tenet of this their advanced technology with us. than superior towards us, as shown and other films of the time is that the They prefer instead to abduct us and by their messages typically addressing public are being wilfully deceived by the investigate the naughty parts of our us at the individual level instead of authorities; anyone in uniform is now bodies. Despite all their wondrous as part of humanity. One of many a bad guy instead of a commanding technology, they still mirror our own bleeding-obvious messages to us from authority, and is still to be feared, but in repressed obsessions. the denizens of Thiaoouba (1987) was a different way. After half a century it has come to “don’t trust politicians”. This appeal to Very few alien craft are now seen; this. How we ignored the sage wisdom individuals became more detailed in human technology and awareness is now of those early aliens! They commanded later years, so that the aliens’ message so pervading and accurate that we will us, they tried to advise us, they warned of the Cahill sighting of 1993 had no longer accept false stories so readily. us, then they sympathised with us and degenerated to “Look under the car” - a A convincing advertisement for a mobile now they are abusing us. The age of touching concern over loose mufflers. telephone shows us how frustrating it innocence is over; now the aliens are Alien spacecraft were also rarely seen would be to observe a UFO and not exploiting us sexually while the UFO in the 1980s. have this particular product readily apologists exploit us commercially. With far better earthling technology - to hand. Nevertheless, skilful UFO I wish those 1950s humanoid aliens everybody now had a camera - and even apologists have learned to exploit us would come back, they and we would speak the same language, wear the same clothes, argue on equal terms, maybe fire a few bullets and generally miss. . Note:This classic catch article is reprinted from The Skeptic, Spring 1998, Vol 18, No 3.

About the author: Steve Roberts is a life member of Australian Skeptics, and investigator of UFOs 90s 41 ARTICLE Skeptical Socialising ON with the Show Ross Balch describes the trip from skeptical neophyte to convention heavyweight.

f someone had told me twelve months organising an informal monthly Skeptics very attractive website and social media Iago that right now I would be in in the Pub for the past twelve months, platform and some very suave looking the middle of planning the Australian so I started showing up and talking to t-shirts and merchandise. Skeptics National Convention, quite people. I loved hearing about skeptical I took responsibility for promoting frankly I would have laughed at events like TAM and the Australian the event and with the help and support them. Such things are for seasoned Skeptics National Convention, and of various internet forums and podcasts professionals, organised types, the kind have been disappointed to have been we were able to absolutely smash our of person who has a tidy desk. Besides, overseas for every National Convention expectations in terms of registrations. We how were a bunch of people whose only since discovering its existence. This got had looked around at other Skepticamp connection is that once a month they me thinking - when was the last time events and expected to be able to attract meet at a pub in Brisbane supposed to Brisbane had hosted a big skeptical around 40 people. That we were out pull off such a thing? I’m still asking event? I was dismayed to hear that it was by about a hundred is just astounding. myself that question, but unlike twelve the last National Convention in 2009. We had over 140 registrations before months ago I have the belief that we can This inevitably lead to discussion at the the event. This meant that our catering do it, and it’s really exciting! pub about arranging some sort of event, budget all of a sudden was looking Like most people I never realised I though perhaps slightly more modest inadequate, but thanks to hard work by was a skeptic, I didn’t realise there was a than a convention – a Skepticamp. As Phil and Shosh Grounds, we were able to word for it and I certainly didn’t realise is typical for a loosely organised group cater to everyone at the event. there was a whole community of like- of mostly social people, there was much The day finally arrived and I must minded people out there just waiting to talk but little action for about a year. admit to feeling a mixture of excitement interact with. As with a lot of skeptics Finally, in February last year, I phoned and absolute terror. This was the first time from the younger generation, I was around and booked a venue in the I had ever been involved in arranging first introduced to the movement by north-eastern suburb of Hamilton. anything even remotely like this. It was podcasts. In 2010 my father, after having We now had a deadline and, boy, did great to see the Brisbane Skeptic Society heard Brian Dunning on the Dr Karl everybody respond! pulling together - it really took a massive science hour, recommended Skeptoid. We turned our attention first to group effort to get this to happen. I quickly burned through the back finding financial support, knowing we We counted over a hundred attendees. catalogue; that other people also liked would need sponsors in order to make At these sorts of things, not everyone to take a rational and logical approach a Skepticamp possible. Many names who says they will attend eventually to evaluating claims was a revelation. were bandied about and treasurer of the turns up. Nonetheless, 100 was still Soon I was in need of more podcasts nascent Brisbane Skeptic Society Gary very much more than our original to listen to, finding the Skeptics Guide Kelk worked extremely hard sending expectations. Not only that, but the to the Universe and Skeptic Zone. This emails and securing various supporters, vast majority of guests arrived when the was when I realised there was a whole even putting down more than $1000 doors opened and didn’t leave until the movement out there, people just like of his own cash into the project to very end. That level of dedication and me, science enthusiasts, people who care get things rolling until sponsor funds support is quite frankly astonishing. about evidence and critical thinking. I arrived. Next we knew that we needed Michael Phillips and Darren Bennet had to be a part of it. some good branding to get people were excellent buzzing around with their Searching online for a place in talking about the event. Chris Eichberger cameras and David and Wendy Ingram Brisbane to meet other skeptics face-to- did an amazing job with the graphic were working diligently all day on the face, I found that Phil Kent had been design which enabled us to build a social media front making everyone 42 The Skeptic June 15

were offering us the option of organising the National Convention for 2015. I must admit, after Skepticamp, discussion within the BSS ranks had turned to eventually offering to host the National Convention, but we all imagined this would be a few years away. After a very short discussion we knew we couldn’t turn the offer down and were delighted to accept. It has been an absolute pleasure so far planning and bringing to life the convention for 2015. We’re very happy with the mix of international and national guests, as well as showcasing some of the talent here in Brisbane. even coming in from interstate for We have an eclectic mix of youth and no reward at all and each and every experience with speakers like Eugenie single one delivered an informative, Scott, and Joe Nickell contrasting up entertaining and high quality and coming talent like Myles Power and presentation. Some of our speakers had young members of Brisbane Skeptic never delivered a public talk before yet Society. Did I also mention we have still managed an enormous amount of Nobel Prize winner Brian Schmidt? bravery and class, qualities that cannot As well as a great line-up of speakers, be overstated. we are happy to be offering innovations Needless to say, Brisbane Skepticamp to the format with Free Friday. We will was a huge success. Several people be holding a free Skepticamp on Friday told me it was the best event they afternoon with some great presentations had ever attended, which was a huge already lined up. We’re also holding compliment to the team. The Brisbane an evening of entertainment featuring Skeptic Society was founded primarily music, comedy and game shows as our for the organisation of the Skepticamp, welcoming event. and we were now off and running. I Twelve months ago I couldn’t possibly Clockwise from above: 2014 Brisbane was extremely honoured to have been imagine I would be on the phone talking Skepticamp scenes. Martin Bridgstock, Peter nominated the President and I was to Joe Nickell offering to fly him to Bowditch, and Jake Farr-Wharton and Ross full of ideas. We had all thoroughly Australia, or driving around Brisbane Balch hit the right notes. enjoyed the Skepticamp experience with James Randi. But that’s exactly the and wanted to do more to build the position I now find myself in. The fact who couldn’t make it extremely jealous. skeptical community in Brisbane. This is if you’re passionate enough, and you’re Hilton Travis manned the AV station has included expanding the pub events willing to work hard you can achieve a at the back of the room, making sure to two new locations, one at Chermside lot. If you are lucky you will meet some that each and every talk was projected and one in Ipswich, and there is also a great people along the way and produce correctly and recorded for posterity. Jake group running in Toowoomba. We have something really special. See you in Farr-Wharton, our co-host for the day, started running lecture nights and special October. . was also working hard behind the scenes guest events including bringing Michael calming our speakers before they went Marshall, project director of the Good The Brisbane Skeptic Society meets on on stage, on top of his MC duties. Thinking Society and vice president of the first Friday of every month at the For those who haven’t been to one, a the Merseyside Skeptics Society, up from Plough Inn, Southbank as well as monthly Skepticamp opens its doors to anyone to Sydney during his stay in Australia for meetings at Chermside and Ipswich. give short presentations (normally 15-20 the 2014 National Convention, and we For more info go to minutes) on a topic of their choosing. hosted Robin Ince during his stay in brisbaneskeptics.org There was such a great response from the Brisbane. community to give presentations that Even with all of that, I was shocked About the author: we had to close submissions a mere week in October last year to receive a call Ross Balch is president of after opening it up. Each of our speakers from Australian Skeptics’ President Eran Brisbane Skeptic Society, either volunteered or were invited, and Segev. News of our Skepticamp success and host of the Skeptically donated their time and efforts, some had travelled and the Australian Skeptics Challenged podcast. 0343 ARTICLE Drugs Law

Alex Wodak says the drug use facts don’t support the drug Use & prohibition myths. Time for a skeptical rethink?

’m going to discuss the abject Abuse Ifailure of drug prohibition which is becoming more evident, the inherent unfairness of it and the sorts of drug law reform we might anticipate happening in the next decades – when and how. It is very appropriate that a skeptical audience deals with this subject because if any subject is really about the tension and the debate between evidence- based approaches and intuitive-based approaches then it is this one. FAILURE OF THE ‘WAR ON DRUGS’ Why do many people say these days that drug prohibition has failed comprehensively and abjectly? Well, for a start, the drug market has expanded inexorably in the last half century, in which the world has been wedded to the idea of drug prohibition: production has been up; consumption is increasing spectacularly in many parts of the world; and the price of drugs like heroin and cocaine has fallen by over 80 per cent in the last quarter century. Drugs are often more pure today than they were years ago. And for drugs like heroin, cocaine, amphetamines, cannabis, 80-90 per cent of drug users in Australia say that they are readily available. An increasing number of new drugs are coming onto the market and very often these are more dangerous than the drugs they are replacing. All this is discussed in an article I published last year in the ANZ Journal of The rate of heroin overdose deaths in Hep C and many other infections and Criminology. Australia increased 55 times between problems that were related to illicit But even more worrying than the 1964 and 1997, and I say ‘rate’ because drugs. fact that the drug market has expanded, that means it’s adjusted for the increase We talk a lot about the increase drug prohibition is meant to keep us in Australia’s population in that time. in property crimes associated with healthy and safe, and it hasn’t been Drug prohibition was really lead in the increase in the drug market doing that. The outcomes have been the saddle bag when we were trying but there’s also been an increase in terrible and have been getting worse. to control the spread of HiV, Hep B, violent crimes. Just remember the 44 The Skeptic June 15

38 methamphetamine traffickers in no previous Leader of the Opposition trying to follow. Melbourne who were executed by other had ever acknowledged the futility of the One is to carry on our commitment criminals in the period 1998 to 2010, war on drugs. to the international drug treaties of that was celebrated in the television 1961, 1971 and 1988 which Australia series Underbelly. UNFAIRNESS and about 185 countries around the Corruption is also a very significant One side of this debate that is really world have signed - almost every problem. The second most senior not touched upon is the inherent country in the world has signed up to person in the NSW Crime Commission unfairness and injustice in fighting the these treaties. is serving a 22 year sentence for war on drugs, in trying to enforce drug Another problem is we somehow his involvement in a $130 million prohibition. have to reconcile those treaties with the methamphetamine trafficking ring, Vicarious punishment is the idea that inexorable laws of economics, the law while there are other examples of you punish one group of people who are of supply and demand. If there is strong corruption linked to the ineffective innocent in order to deter other people demand for something then there will be attempts to enforce the drug laws. from doing a behaviour you don’t want. a supply coming from somewhere; if no And then there’s the mass violence This is universally recognised as the legal suppliers are available then other that we’re seeing in many parts of wrong thing to do. The sources will emerge. the world. On December 2006, the most famous example The third incoming president of Mexico declared of this, although it’sd “ If you can’t win and part of this is a war on drugs on his first day in office; outside of the drug might lose, why do the immovable by the time he left office six years area, is the destruction mountain of later somewhere between 60 and 70 of the town of Lidice, you have to keep on politics. Well, it has thousand Mexicans had been murdered in what is now the fighting? Go back to the been immovable by drug traffickers, the army or police Czech Republic, and drawing board. until now. And here in Mexico’s failed war on drugs, and it the murder of its ” the problem has hasn’t made drugs less available. Last inhabitants after the been that for such year, 23,000 Mexicans were murdered assassination of a Nazi leader Reinhard a long time bad policy has been good as part of this cycle of violence. Heydrich in the Second World War. politics. That’s started to change a little There are serious threats to national And this is exactly what we do with bit, which is why Mr Abbott made that security. Why did Australia send troops illicit drugs – we punish one group of comment in April 2014. to Afghanistan after 2001? Well, part of people to deter another group of people One of the things that is rarely the reason was the huge drug trade that from using those drugs. discussed in this issue is that under goes on in Afghanistan, feeding demand Another argument that is made to prohibition more dangerous drugs which in turn is being whipped up by justify the war on drug use is that it’s to displace less dangerous drugs. the lucrative profits that are involved in the benefit of drug users to be punished Joe Westermeyer wrote about this the war on drugs. to deter them from using drugs. in 1976 in an article in the Archives of These days we’re starting to see But we don’t apply the principle of General Psychiatry. He looked at three world leaders walk away from the war proportionality here, a very fundamental countries in Asia that had banned opium on drugs. Tony Abbott on the 29th of principle in the rule of law. There are no smoking - a terrible practice that was April, 2014 said on a radio interview in criminal sanctions for people who go largely carried out by old men, it made Melbourne: “The war on drugs is not mountaineering or sail solo yachts or go them very constipated, and they used a a war we’ll ever finally win, the war on hang-gliding or smoke cigarettes. Why lot of the slender resources of families drugs is one you might lose. You may don’t people who smoke cigarettes get to smoke opium. It was banned, and not ever win it, but you’ve got to fight a two year or a five year sentence in jail what happened was that the smoking of it.” to deter them from this dangerous habit opium was replaced by heroin injection, I don’t understand why if you can’t that kills 50 per cent of people who have this time by young and sexually-active win and might lose you have to keep that behaviour? men preparing the conditions in Asia on fighting. I would have thought what These are powerful arguments, but I for half the population getting the risk you should be doing is going back to believe they have very little traction in of HIV infection. The unintended the drawing board and having a think the community; you don’t often hear consequences of something that was about drug law reform. them. probably done for benevolent reasons Tony Negus, who was then turned out to be a very great negative. Commissioner for the Federal Police DRUG WAR PRINCIPLES There are many other examples of said, on the same day, this isn’t a A few principles that we should discuss where the prohibition of drugs has problem that the law enforcement can before we get into the nitty-gritty. encouraged the replacement of less arrest its way out of. This whole exercise is about trying dangerous drugs with dangerous drugs. So we have now seen a shift in to fit square pegs into round holes. We When alcohol was prohibited in the Australia. No previous Prime Minster, have three kinds of principles that we’re United States in the 1920s, the first 0345 ARTICLE Drugs Law

Use & Abuse that “Power concedes nothing without a automatically, including the absolutely demand; it never did and it never will”. primary need for policy to be based on Continued... So don’t think that drug law reform is evidence. inevitable. If you want it, if we want it, Another thing that follows when you then we’re going to have to fight for it. make that switch from criminal justice drug to disappear was beer. When beer to health and social is the need to start disappeared, if you wanted to drink THE FUTURE properly funding health and social alcohol in the US, you had the choice The first threshold step is redefining of interventions. These aren’t magical, of wine or spirits – products that were the issue away from the notion that it they’re not panaceas, but they are a much more lucrative to traffic. is primarily a criminal justice issue, and darn sight more effective than criminal Another problem which we have redefining it as primarily a health and justice interventions for this issue. to remember is the power of vested social issue. Health and social - both The second thing that we need to interests. Frederick Douglas, the great parts are very important. do is to start raising the threshold 19th century African-American who Once that threshold decision is and reducing the severity of criminal fought for the abolition of slavery, said made, many other decisions follow sanctions for people who are trafficking in drugs. These are people who are cultivating or producing or transporting or selling or purchasing or possessing – the whole network needs to be changed so the threshold levels where the states start intervening are gradually raised and the sanctions imposed move from criminal sanctions to civil sanctions. The best way of undermining the market is to regulate as much of that market as possible. Unfortunately it will never be possible to regulate the whole market. The tobacco market is, of course, legal in Australia, but ten per cent of the cigarette market in Australia is believed to be supplied by black market sources. If we can’t eradicate the black market for cigarettes, how can we ever completely eradicate the black market for illicit drugs? We have to proceed cautiously; I don’t have a problem with that. We should be doing one small step at a time, evaluating it and if there is a good case for doing more then proceeding to do so. We have to remember that there aren’t really many options in terms of regulating psychoactive drugs. We have prescription controls which you’ll be familiar with if you have tried to get powerful pain relieving drugs which you can only get from your doctor. Or if they are not quite so powerful you can buy them over the counter from a pharmacy. Other psychoactive drugs are sold to be consumed on the premises, so-called on-licence. A very good example of that is the pub. Another way of controlling 46 The Skeptic June 15

psychoactive drugs is to sell them on market for psychoactive drugs. This and Washington voted to start taxing some regulated premises but to be should involve hard-to-get but easy-to- and regulating cannabis. Uruguay has consumed off the premises, an off- lose licences for production, wholesale committed to drug law reform. And in licence. and retail. It should involve the sort of 2013 New Zealand started the process And a fifth option is the Al Capone age restrictions we have for alcohol. of regulating the new psychoactive option, where the states says that none It should also involve mandatory drugs - they ran into some problems, of those four options are available for provision of information on packaging and have temporarily stopped that that drug, and by default an Al Capone – health warnings, health-seeking reform. But in introducing this Bill or Robert Trimbole comes forward and information, and consumer protection before the NZ Parliament Todd is happy to regulate the drug and take information, such McClay, the the proceeds, and the very lucrative as “what you’ve just When dealing with Associate Minister profits that can be made. bought contains “ of Health, said that Black markets are very pernicious, 5.7 per cent tricky issues, change the critical problem they are very harmful systems, and tetrahydrocannabinol” seems to be impossible was untested drugs we can see this for example in the and that sort of thing. in an unregulated difference between street drugs – street Learning some lessons in prospect and inevit- market. heroin – and prescribed heroin. from cigarettes we able in retrospect . Things are Until 1906 in Australia edible should introduce plain ” starting to fall apart opium was regulated and taxed and packaging and ban and the centre lawfully sold from grocery stores and advertising right from the beginning. cannot hold. We’re not going to see the like; it didn’t cause a problem. And if it’s possible, we should also ban anything as dramatic as the fall of the Heroin was available in Australia legally donations to political parties. Berlin wall - those kinds of sudden until 1953 and for some years after We should also hypothecate some events are very rare in policy sense. It’s the production was banned doctors of the tax that would be generated by going to be a slow evolutionary process, could prescribe heroin until legal stocks this regime. That means we start off by but this is what we’re going to see. were exhausted. When the ban was requiring a small proportion of the tax Is that all there is to it? No, there’s introduced in 1953, several leaders to be allocated to the prevention and a lot more I’m afraid. But drug law of the Australian medical profession treatment of people who have problems reform is not going to start; it has argued against the introduction of the with this drug. already started. . policy. One thing we’d need to keep in We had a debate about this in mind, despite what people who are FURTHER READING Australia in the 1990s, looking at opposed to drug law reform say, we Wodak, Alex “The abject failure of drug whether we should do some research would never consider – I would never prohibition”, Australian & New Zealand into whether we should have prescribed consider, and I don’t know anyone Journal of Criminology, 2014, Vol. 47(2) heroin available for people who have who would ever consider – having a 190–201 a severe problem with street heroin box of heroin or amphetimes sold at Husak, Legalise This - The Case for and for whom no other treatment supermarket checkout counters. That’s Decriminalising Drugs, Verso 2002 had worked. There have now been six never going to be an option and nor Westermeyer Joe, “The pro heroin effects trials in six countries involving 1500 should it be. of anti opium policies”, Archives of subjects, and these have shown very There’s some good news to report General Psychiatry, 1976;33(9):1135- significant benefits, very few negatives, and that’s that drug law reform is seen 1139. so that we now have nine countries to be inevitable in many countries. I’d that prescribe heroin. But after John remind you that it is often the case Note: This article is a slightly edited Howard intervened in 1997, we’ve not when dealing with tricky issues – and version of a presentation given to the had it so far in Australia. this is a very tricky issue – that change Australian Skeptics National Convention We should contrast how beneficial seems to be impossible in prospect and in November 2014. prescribed heroin is for drug users, inevitable in retrospect. Like marriage their families and communities equality, I think this will be one of compared with how pernicious street those issues that, when it’s all over, we’ll heroin is for the same group of people. wonder what all the fuss was about. About the author: If we’re thinking of starting to tax The reform process has already Dr Alex Wodak is Director and regulate drugs as some countries started. In 2011 Bolivia left the 1961 of the Alcohol and Drug are, what would this actually involve? treaty which required it and other Service, St Vincent’s Hospital, The logical place is to start with countries to impose criminal sanctions NSW. He is also President cannabis, which accounts for probably on people chewing coca leaf. In of the Australian Drug Law two-thirds of the Australian black November 2012, the states of Oregon Reform Foundation. 47 ARTICLE Science Darwin’s Mis ings Link Tim Harding opens up the book on Darwin’s theories – the right one and the wrong one

harles Darwin is best known C for his major contributions to evolutionary theory. In 1859, he published his theory of natural Seychelles Blue selection as the mechanism of evolution in his revolutionary book On the Origin of Species. This book provided compelling evidence overcoming the Diamond Dove scientific rejection of earlier concepts of transmutation of species. The basic principles of his theory have been shown to be correct and are now widely accepted as the basis of mainstream Thick-billed Green zoology, botany and ecology. On the other hand, in a later book Darwin got it wrong with the mechanisms of inheritance. The Thick-billed Ground empirical rules of genetics, based solely on observational results, were largely understood since Gregor Mendel’s ‘wrinkled pea’ experiments in the 1860s. The postulated units of inheritance Rapa Fruit Dove were called genes, but in Darwin’s time it was not understood where genes were located in the body or what they physically consisted of. Darwin knew Stephen’s Emerald that there must have been a physical mechanism for inheritance, but his speculations about it – called pangenesis – were incorrect. Fortunately for the credibility of his theory of evolution by natural selection, he published these speculations later in a separate 1868 book titled Variation of Animals and Plants Under Domestication. 48 The Skeptic June 15

DARWIN’S EARLY CAREER Left to right: Darwin’s Variation of Animals and Charles Robert Darwin was born in Plants Under Domestication Shrewsbury, England, in 1809 at his (problems) and On the Origin family home, The Mount. He was of Species (convincing). the fifth of six children of wealthy society doctor and financier Robert Darwin’s Darwin, and Susannah Darwin (née and around July of Wedgwood). that year sketched a Darwin went to Edinburgh genealogical branching University in 1825 to study medicine. of a single evolutionary In his second year he neglected his tree. Unconventionally, medical studies for natural history Darwin asked Mis ing Link and spent four months assisting questions of fancy Robert Grant’s research into marine pigeon and animal invertebrates. Grant revealed his breeders as well as enthusiasm for the concept of established scientists. transmutation of species (the altering In late September of one species into another) but 1838, Darwin started reading Thomas correspondence about his theorising Darwin initially rejected this concept Malthus’s An Essay on the Principle with the botanist Joseph Dalton (probably for religious reasons). of Population with its statistical Hooker in January 1844, and by July Ideas about the transmutation of argument that human populations, had rounded out his sketch into a species were controversial as they if unrestrained, breed beyond their 230-page essay, to be expanded with conflicted with theological beliefs means and struggle to survive. Darwin his research results and published if he that species were related this to died prematurely. unchanging parts of the struggle for His famous 1859 book On a designed hierarchy “ Scientists were slow existence among the Origin of Species was written and that humans were to give a mechanism wildlife and plants, for non-specialist readers and unique, unrelated to so that the survivors attracted widespread interest upon other animals. The of natural selection the would pass on their its publication. As Darwin was political and religious significance that form and abilities, already an eminent scientist, his implications were and unfavourable findings were taken seriously. The intensely debated, it deserved.” variations would evidence he presented generated but transmutation be destroyed. By scientific, philosophical, and religious was not accepted by the scientific December 1838, he had noted a discussion. The debate over the mainstream until Darwin’s theory. similarity between the act of breeders book contributed to the campaign In December 1831, Darwin had selecting traits and a Malthusian by Thomas Huxley and his fellow joined the Beagle ship voyage as a nature selecting among variants members of the X Club to secularise gentleman naturalist and geologist. In thrown up by chance. science by promoting scientific South America, he discovered fossils Darwin now had the framework naturalism. Within two decades there resembling huge armadillos, and of his theory of natural selection, but was widespread scientific agreement noted the geographical distribution of he was fully occupied with his career that evolution, with a branching modern species in the hope of finding as a geologist and held off writing a pattern of common descent, had their ‘centre of creation’. As the Beagle sketch of his theory until his book on occurred, but scientists were slow neared England in 1836, he began The Structure and Distribution of Coral to give the mechanism of natural to think that species might not be Reefs was completed in May 1842. selection the significance that it immutable after all. deserved. In March 1837, ornithologist John EVOLUTION BY NATURAL SELECTION Darwin’s theory of evolution is Gould announced that mockingbirds Darwin continued to research and based on some key facts (based on collected on the Galapagos Islands extensively revise his theory of natural wild populations without human represented three separate species, selection while focusing on his main interference), which biologist Ernst each unique to a particular island, and work of publishing the scientific Mayr has summarised as follows: that several distinct birds from those results of the Beagle voyage. He • Every species is fertile enough that islands were all classified as finches. tentatively wrote of his ideas to the if all offspring survived to reproduce Darwin began speculating, in a series famous Scottish geologist Charles the population would grow. of notebooks, on the possibility Lyell in January 1842; then in June • Despite periodic fluctuations, that “one species does change into he roughed out a 35-page pencil populations remain roughly the another” to explain these findings, sketch of his theory. Darwin began same size. 0349 ARTICLE Science

Darwin’s missing link Continued...

• Resources such as food are limited and are relatively stable over time. • Individuals in a population vary significantly from one another. • Much of this variation is heritable. From these key facts, the following important inferences may be made, once again summarised by Mayr: • A struggle for survival ensues. • Individuals less suited to the environment are less likely to survive and less likely to reproduce. • Individuals more suited to the of characteristics acted on by natural theories held that the new mammalian environment are more likely to survive selection, his theory would be offspring is already preformed in and more likely to reproduce and incomplete. miniature, either within the egg of leave their heritable traits to future its mother or in the semen of its generations, which produces the MECHANISMS OF INHERITANCE father. Both of these types of theories process of natural selection. Before the advent of genetics, incorporated ‘encasement’, which was This slow process gradually results in Hippokratic theories attempted to the thesis that God created all future populations changing to adapt to their explain inheritance in terms of a organisms in miniature, and that environments, and ultimately, these blending of fluids extracted from all reproduction was just the growth and variations accumulate over time to form parts of both male and female bodies development of these miniatures. new species. during intercourse. It was thought that Hippokratic theories were very good Natural selection provided a the characteristics of the offspring are at explaining inheritance but very bad mechanism for variation and eventual determined by the relative amounts and at explaining growth and development, speciation, but it did not explain the strength of fluids from each part of the while preformationist theories were inheritance of variation. Without body of each parent. the opposite - very good at explaining some way to explain the inheritance On the other hand, ‘preformationist’ growth and development but very

THE SKEPTICAL DARWIN

arwin suffered chronic ill health for much of his life. In 1849, everything - when his daughter was very ill, he had a clairvoyant Dhe visited a Dr James Gully’s spa in Malvern, Worscestershire, and girl to report on internal changes, a mesmerist to put her to sleep was surprised to find some benefit from hydrotherapy. But there is - an homeopathist, viz Dr. Chapman; & himself as Hydropathist! & a dichotomy in Darwin’s view of Dr Gully, as expressed in a letter to the girl recovered.” his second cousin and collaborator, William Fox: The Darwin Correspondence Project, www.darwinproject.ac.uk/ “You speak about Homeopathy; which is a subject entry-1352. which makes me more wrath, even than does Clairvoyance: *Lambert Adolphe Jacques Quetelet “Letters on the Theory of Probabilities”, clairvoyance so transcends belief, that one’s ordinary faculties are 1849, pp228–36, in which the author discussed medical statistics and pointed put out of question, but in Homeopathy common sense & common out that the efficacy of a treatment for a particular condition could not be observation come into play, & both these must go to the Dogs, judged without comparing the resulting mortality with the mortality that if the infinitesimal doses have any effect whatever. How true is a followed if there was no treatment of the condition. According to the Darwin remark I saw the other day by Quetelet*, in respect to evidence of Correspondence Project, there is no reference in Darwin’s reading notebook curative processes, viz that no one knows in disease what is the (DAR 119) that indicates he may have read Quetelet 1849; it is, however, simple result of nothing being done, as a standard with which possible that he read John Frederick William Herschel’s review of the book in to compare Homeopathy & all other such things. It is a sad flaw, the Edinburgh Review (1850) 92: 1–57, in which the views described above are I cannot but think in my beloved Dr Gully, that he believes in quoted on pp. 54–5. 50 The Skeptic June 15

Far left: The divergence of species, from should be viewed as a form of growth. Darwin’s Origin of Species By means of this single hypothesis, Left: Laws of inheritance and pangenesis, Darwin attempted to not only fill a from Darwin’s Variation in Animals & Plants gap in his theory of evolution, but whether he meant to or not, he created an apparent synthesis between the on pangenesis sent to Thomas then competing paradigms relating to Huxley in 1865: “I am led to believe inheritance and development. from analogies immediately to be After reading Variation Under given that protoplasm or formative Domestication, Francis Galton (a cousin matter which is throughout the of Darwin’s) arranged for a series of whole organisation, is generated experiments to be conducted on rabbits by each different tissue and cell initially housed in the Zoological or aggregate of similar cells; that Gardens of London and later at his as each tissue or cell becomes Kensington home. His intention was developed, a superabundant atom to demonstrate the transmission of or gemmule as may be called of the ‘gemmules’ to succeeding generations formative matter is thrown off; that via blood injected from one rabbit to these almost infinitely numerous another, using coat colour as a marker. and infinitely minute gemmules Galton ultimately found that not a single unite together in due proportion instance of induced variation of coat to form the true germ; that they colour occurred in a total of 88 offspring have the power of self-increase or from blood transfused parents, and in propagation; and that they here 1871 published his results in Nature. run through the same course of In later editions of Variation Under development, as that which the true Domestication, Darwin admitted in a germ, of which they are to constitute footnote that he would have expected to elements, has to run through, before find ‘gemmules’ in the blood, although they can be developed into their their presence was not absolutely bad at explaining inheritance. To give parent tissues or cells. This may be called necessary to his hypothesis. Darwin’s some examples, Hippokratic theories the hypothesis of Pangenesis.” response is unconvincing, as he provides were unable to adequately explain no alternative explanation as to how the phenomena such as the regeneration of LAWS OF INHERITANCE & PANGENESIS ‘gemmules’ are transmitted from the freshwater polyps, while preformationist Darwin further proposed that his parents’ somatic cells to the germ cells. theories were unable to adequately hypothesis would not only account for He made no real attempt to modify explain how the mating of a mare with inheritance, but also for development: his hypothesis in response to Galton’s a donkey produces a mule. “The development of each being, falsification of it, indicating a possible Darwin came to his hypothesis including all the forms of metamorphosis abandonment of commitment to his of pangenesis from a different and metagenesis, as well as the so- hypothesis. direction – to fill a gap left in his called growth of the higher animals, in After the rediscovery of Mendel’s theory of evolution. Darwin’s breeding which structure changes, though not work in the 1890s, scientists tried to experiments on domestic animals in a striking manner, depends on the determine which molecules in the cell (mainly pigeons) in the 1850s and 60s presence of gemmules thrown off at each were responsible for inheritance. In were part of his attempts to complete period of life, and on their development, 1910, Thomas Hunt Morgan argued his evolution theory. He was attempting at a corresponding period, in union with that genes are on chromosomes, based in these experiments to show just how the preceding cells”. on observations of a sex-linked white quickly varying characteristics can be Through these mechanisms, eye mutation in fruit flies. In 1913, amplified by domestic breeding, and Darwin proposed that inheritance and his student Alfred Sturtevant used the therefore how natural selection can development were tied together, not only phenomenon of genetic linkage to operate. in the generation of offspring and early show that genes are arranged linearly Darwin called his explanation stages of embryonic life, but throughout on the chromosome. It was soon of inheritance “the hypothesis of the life of the organism. By giving discovered that chromosomes consisted Pangenesis”, which he published in ‘gemmules’ the power to be modified of DNA and proteins, but DNA was 1868. However, he provides a more throughout the life of an organism not identified as the gene carrier until succinct description of this hypothesis and then be transferred to the next 1944. Watson and Crick’s breakthrough in an earlier unpublished manuscript generation, he argued that inheritance discovery of the chemical structure 51 ARTICLE Science

Darwin’s missing link Continued...

of DNA in 1953 finally revealed how genetic instructions are stored inside organisms and passed from generation to generation. In view of the fact that it took another 85 years after Darwin’s book Variation Under Domestication before the molecular mechanisms of inheritance to be discovered, Darwin can hardly be blamed for getting it wrong way back in 1868. This was before even chromosomes had been discovered, let alone DNA. On the plus side, Darwin’s theory of evolution by natural selection, with its tree-like model of branching common descent, has become the unifying theory of the life sciences. The theory explains the diversity of living organisms and their adaptation to the environment. It makes sense of the geologic record, biogeography, parallels in embryonic development, biological homologies, vestigiality, cladistics, phylogenetics and other fields, with unrivalled explanatory power; it has also become essential to applied sciences such as medicine, agriculture, conservation and environmental science. . REFERENCES Clearance Sale&H Darwin, Charles (1859) The Origin Of Species. $7 P 6th ed. 1873. London: John Murray. 30 + Darwin, Charles (1875) The Variation of $ Animals and Plants Under Domestication, Be Quick- Limited Stocks Vol II London: John Murray. Mayr, Ernst (1982) The Growth of Biological Thought: Diversity, Evolution, and Inheritance Harvard University Press. Other references for this article may be found on the author’s blog at http://yandoo.wordpress.com/

About the author: Tim Harding has studied the history and philosophy of science twice, years ago as part of a science degree and more recently as part of an arts degree. 52 ARTICLE Epiphany The Skeptic June 15 Birth of a Notion ay Hyman, one of the founders of Adam takes hold of the truth, Richard is skeptical, Rthe skeptical movement, Richard and young Ray is top of the pack. Saunders, life member of Australian Skeptics, and Adam vanLangenberg, founder of lunchtime skeptical sessions at school – inspired by magic, divining and kinesiology. RAY HYMAN - PIONEER When I was aged seven I did my first magic show for money. I did it for my school class; they had a show-and-tell, and my father had given me some magic tricks for my birthday. I took them to school and my teacher thought it was cute. She asked if I’d do it for the Parents their hands up. I was & Teachers Association. And I did it, and gobsmacked. How could they paid me! I used that money to get these people, who had business cards made and I spread them all just failed a simple test, over the city, and it took off from there. still believe in divining? It showed me Soon after that I found books of magic clearly how people can fool themselves in the library, and I began reading about and keep right on fooling themselves, ignored less. I agreed with them but magicians, and especially Houdini. I saw even after being shown up. Now if they wasn’t really doing anything about it. he had a big career debunking psychics could be so very wrong, what about My first real step was walking out of and spiritualist mediums and somehow I other people and their belief in their my kinesiologist’s office and thinking assumed that as a magician you had to do paranormal abilities? Surely one of the to myself “I should check this stuff that. So that’s how I got into skepticism. most important revelations at the age of out.” I went home, Googled ‘applied 14 or 15 - people, no matter how much kinesiology skeptic’ and immediately RICHARD SAUNDERS - SPOON BENDER they believe in something, can still be cancelled all of my future appointments. The closest thing to a bolt from the wrong. It took a while but I got there blue or the scales falling from my eventually. Now I run a skeptical society eyes was in about 1981. In those days ADAM VANLANGENBERG - TEACHER for high school kids and bore my friends I was a keen viewer of Channel 7’s “Not with a bang but a whimper” is a with sentences that begin with “well Great Mysteries of the World with Scott good summary of my conversion into technically…” . Lambert (I wonder whatever happened skepticism. Do I regret my late conversion? No, to him?). This show was really an excuse I’m guilty of a lot of things. I tried because I think it’s made me a better to air documentaries from around the to convert a friend to Christianity in skeptic. My wife and her family are world, usually concerning what were primary school. I did numerology and extremely religious and my upbringing considered mysteries such as Bigfoot, Tarot readings. I had an acupuncturist helps me appreciate their point of view. Loch Ness Monster and so on. One day and applied kinesiologist, both of whom I understand the desire to have control Mr Lambert showed the locally made I directed friends and family to. over your life that leads people to consult “James Randi in Australia” produced by Jump to almost fifteen years later psychics. I know why people say “but it Dick Smith. And the moment in the when a friend directed me to the SGU worked for me” when confronted with documentary that made it a turning podcast. Being a bit of a completist, evidence because I’ve said it myself, point in my thinking? Near the end, I downloaded the entire archive and many times. when it was clear that all the water started from episode one. I found myself My conversion was slow but I think diviners had failed, Randi asked for a nodding along to some things and it was worth the time. Being able to see show of hands to see how many still quietly ignoring others. another person’s point of view is never a believed in their powers. All of them shot Over time I nodded more and bad thing. . 53 REVIEWS Religion Miraculous tools of corruption

The Nuns of Sant’Ambrogio: others in the church. The Inquisition eventually The true story of a convent in scandal found, however, that she had affairs with clerical officials, enjoyed a threesome with her confessor By Hubert Wolf and another nun, and lied about performing Knopf, US$21.24 miracles. She had encouraged others to venerate her as a living saint, but the 1816 Inquisition he Catholic Church has its found that she was a false saint. Once she was Tshare of current scandals, but banished from her convent, she still tried to in the nineteenth century what control it from afar. Leo XII largely exonerated titillated and infuriated those of Firrao in 1829, but the nuns of Sant’Ambrogio any other persuasion were the never stopped venerating her, promoting her shenanigans going on in monasteries cult, and keeping such relics as her scourges as and nunneries. There were fictional sources of devotion. versions, like Matthew Lewis’s lurid The church fathers were forever fretting over and highly entertaining The Monk, the pretence of holiness and the veneration of and there were purported memoirs false saints (especially females), and these were like the shocking Awful Disclosures to be themes in the investigation documented of Maria Monk, or, The Hidden in this book. The investigation was sparked by Secrets of a Nun’s Life in a Convent a member of the convent, the German princess Exposed. Those were fictions, but Katharina Von Hohenzollern-Sigmaringen. readers at the time would have gone She had been brought up in Catholic churches crazy for the current The Nuns of leaning liberal, but visited Rome in 1834 Sant’Ambrogio: The True Story of a and was counselled by a more reactionary Convent Scandal by German church priest there. She was twice widowed, and historian Hubert Wolf (translated resolved to become a nun. Her Roman priest from the German 2013 edition by Ruth arranged for her to be placed in the Convent of Martin). Sant’Ambrogio in 1858. Her torments during Wolf was one of the first scholars to have been her fifteen months there were such that she granted access to the files of the case within the smuggled out a letter that pleaded, “Save me,” Vatican from an investigation by the Inquisition to her cousin, a Bishop and a confidant of Pope that started in 1859. His big, detailed book Pius IX. The bishop stormed into the convent, tells a convoluted and astounding story of nuns and took her away to his country estate. There, and priests who ranged from innocent and she wrote out her harrowing tale in a document gullible to lascivious and murderous. Wolf has that was to be the basis for the Inquisition’s given context to this bizarre story by including investigation. biographies of each of the enormous number of The focus of her complaints, and of the characters involved, as well as descriptions of the investigation, was Maria Luisa, a beautiful religious and social forces of the time. It is an young nun who had precociously worked ambitious, even scholarly book, but because the her way into power in the convent that she case is so extraordinary, it is smooth and even had joined when she was thirteen. She was exciting reading.. charismatic, and had just the sorts of ecstasies The foundations of the convent of and visions that the church valued. Indeed, Sant’Ambrogio in Rome were mired in she reported that the Virgin Mary herself had scandal. Before the outrages that are the main anointed her as “the first-born daughter of the story of this book, the former abbess, Maria Mother of God”, and had also bestowed upon Agnese Firrao, had been tried and convicted her some costly jewellery that Sister Maria by the Inquisition. She had been a star within Luisa brought back after her heavenly flights. the Catholic world because of her visions Not only that, but she got mail from the Virgin and healing powers, and her gratifying self- Mary, letters in a beautiful handwriting that mortification by wearing an iron mask with nails would deliver such instructions as a demand in it, putting a heavy stone on her extended that she be elected vicaress. Katharina, although tongue, and using scourges on herself. Pope Leo she had fallen under Maria Luisa’s spell XII considered her a spiritual advisor, as did initially, came to suspect such manoeuvrings. 54 The Skeptic June 15

When Maria Luisa learned of Katharina’s suspicions, she began to deliver poison to her in her food and drink. Katharina became severely ill due to the repeated poisonings, but did not die (as had other nuns from whom Maria Luisa had previously feared betrayal), and was thus able to send out her call for help. The investigation that stemmed from Katharina’s complaints found many serious violations. Maria Luisa had dictated the letters purportedly from the Virgin Mary to a young nun who wrote them out. The jewellery the Virgin had given her had been purchased with embezzled convent funds. Even worse, Maria Luisa conducted lesbian initiation rites with the nuns before they said their final vows, and she had had long- term affairs with some of them. Especially scandalous was that she had physical relations with the convent’s confessor, Giuseppe Peters, who was acting under an alias; he was really Joseph Kleutgen, an important scholar and theologian of the time, and an advisor to Pius IX. In the investigation, Peters was able to tie up the apparitions while fretting over manifestations of proceedings on various legalistic points, and he the devil. insisted that his encounters with Maria Luisa The punishments were harsh on Maria were spiritual and void of any lust. Luisa, but Peters suffered a couple of years Above: Katherina Von Ho- It was a lot for the officials of the Inquisition confinement in a retreat, during which he could henzollern-Sigmaringen, to go through. It got especially complicated not do priestly things like confessions. The the shocked princess. because Maria Luisa, confronted with records of the legal proceedings were locked Below: Maria Luisa, the misbehaviour, maintained that any mischief away in secrecy. Wolf explains how Peters may naughty nun. was caused not by her but by a demon have gotten off lightly because he was on the assuming her form. After several pope’s side of favouring centralisation of the months of inquiry, it was clear church at the Vatican. Indeed, after his two that Maria Luisa was guilty years of exile, Peters was recalled to Rome of embezzlement, sexual and worked on policy towards the pope’s abuse, and murder - aims. (Wolf makes no pointed comparisons of crimes in anyone’s leniency to offenders and secrecy of operations book - along with in this case to that of the recent scandals of violations of different priestly child abuse, but this will not be far aspects of Catholic from any reader’s thoughts.) This is a huge sanctity. If you are story of strange times, with many flawed and only familiar with unlovable characters all pursuing what they the Inquisition as the would have claimed was religious good. It isn’t torturing Spanish often you get to read a scholarly book that is version, this will this racy - beware of the killer nun! be a revelation; the judges struggled hard - Reviewed by Rob Hardy to understand exactly what had been going on and to demonstrate guilt fairly. This was remarkable in a time and place that was going wild for Marian 55 REGULARS

The cycle of life ELIZABETHAN POLYMATH Seers, spies, scryers and Satan. John Dee (1527-1608 or 1609) was a mathematician, astronomer, philosopher and And so it goes, the almost inevitable adviser to Queen Elizabeth I. One of the most realisation that all knowledge is learned men of his age, he had been invited to lecture on the geometry of Euclid at the University of connected and connectable. Paris while still in his early twenties. Dee was an ardent promoter of mathematics and a respected astronomer, as well as a leading expert in navigation. In his lifetime Dee amassed one of the largest libraries in England - at least 3000 printed ARMENIA AIDERS volumes and a large number of manuscripts. The library was Perhaps to show their lighter, pilfered during Dee’s six-year trip to the Continent between more caring side, a number of 1583 and 1589 as well as after his death. members of hard rock and supposedly Satanic bands, including Black Sabbath lead guitarist Tony Iommi and Iron Maiden singer Bruce Dickinson, gathered in 1989 to record a song in aid of Armenia, which had just suffered a major earthquake. In the same vein as the much larger charity function Live Aid, Rock Aid Armenia recorded the Deep Purple song, “Smoke on the Water”. The project was initiated and coordinated by an international charity campaigner and founder of Planet Ark. His name? Jon Dee, a descendant of the Elizabethan celebrity*. What goes around ... *As well as being a speaker at a future Sydney Skeptics dinner. METALLIC MUSICIANS Rock bands – especially exponents of ‘heavy metal’ and ‘hard rock’ music – have regularly been described as encompassing Satanic influences, particularly by fundamentalist Christian groups. They have suggested that the name of the band Kiss stands for “Knights in Satan’s Service”. Of course, that extreme view is not helped by bands like Black Widow, who recorded a sort-of Satanic rock opera called “Sacrifice”; Black Sabbath, whose very name has Satanic associations (though the band deny any association with Satanism), and Iron Maiden, whose third album is called “Number of the Beast” and whose later song “The Alchemist” is Tony Iommi - lead guitarist for about John Dee and Edward Kelley. satanic band Black Sabbath, or

generous donator to charity? Source: Wikipedia, except where noted

56 The Skeptic June 15

HERMETIC SECRET AGENT Dee’s high status allowed him to play a role in Elizabethan politics, including as a covert operative for the Crown. In this capacity, he developed a code name that the Queen should use for him: two circles representing his “eyes of the queen”, with two joining lines on the top and right hand side as protection. In other words, “007”. Seven, of course, was an occult symbol, and Dee immersed himself in the study of magic, astrology and Hermetic philosophy. He devoted much time and effort in the last thirty years or so of his life to attempting to commune with angels in order to learn the John Dee does a few universal language of creation and bring about the pre- tricks for Queen Elizabeth apocalyptic unity of mankind. (painting by Henry Glindoni)

INTRIGUING SCRYER During Dee’s long trip to the Continent, he sought to supernaturally contact angels through the services of Edward Kelley, a ‘scryer’ or crystal-gazer. Kelley’s ‘angels’ communicated to him in a special language called Enochian. Some modern cryptographers argue that Kelley invented it, and it is not clear whether Dee was a victim or an accomplice. Kelley (or Kelly, also known as Edward Talbot; 1555-97 - pictured far left), What goes around ... apart from having the professed ability to summon spirits or angels in a ‘shew-stone’ or mirror, also INSPIRING SATANISTS claimed to possess the secret of transmuting Though the Enochian language is largely base metals into gold, the goal of alchemy, undecipherable – “a documentable case of true as well as having knowledge of the glossolalia” – it has continued to be a source of supposed Philosopher’s Stone inspiration for occultists, including the Rosicrucians itself. and the Hermetic Order of the Golden Dawn. One of the key figures in this latter group was English ceremonial magician, poet, painter, novelist and mountaineer Aleister Crowley (1875-1947) who joined the Golden Dawn in 1898. Crowley was described as a Satanist and advocate of Jimmy Page in human sacrifice, despite denying both. But his life has front of Crowley’s intrigued many people, including Jimmy Page, lead Boleskine House guitarist and founder of rock band Led Zeppelin on Loch Ness who, for a period of about 12 years, owned Crowley’s Boleskine House on the (monster not

Source: Wikipedia, except where noted shores of Loch Ness. included)

57 FORUM Aviation

Chemtrail tales Another dramatic depiction of contrails happened earlier in the War, when the Luftwaffe and the RAF fought over southern In which is discussed chemtrails, contrails, Spitfires, England in the Battle of Britain. Several classic Hurricanes and mosquitos photographs and at least one painting depict the swirling vapour trails as Hurricanes, Spitfires, Messerschmitts, Junkers and Heinkels fought for very much enjoyed Jo Alabaster’s piece on the supremacy. I ‘chemtrail conspiracies’, “The Atmosphere Of course, in those days stuff was falling from for Conspiracy” [The Skeptic, 35:1, p38] as it the skies that really did pose a threat to life and has been a topic of interest to me for many limb of those on the ground and it was chemical years. I am reminded of a couple of personal in nature. But they were chemicals enclosed experiences which might add to Jo’s story. in steel and other metals in falling bombs and Jo is right to say that condensation trails are crashing aircraft. And it was no sinister and almost as old as the history of aviation, but it hidden conspiracy - it was total war. wasn’t until WWII that aircraft flew at sufficient I was reminded about all this when I visited height and in sufficient numbers for it to the UK in 1999. As most of my ancestors came become so commonplace for this phenomenon from the British Isles, I readily acknowledged the to be noticed by the wider public. ties of history, language, institutions and heritage Anyone who has watched the many films that link our two countries but it was quickly made about the air war in Europe will be brought home that geography set us distinctly familiar with the scenes of streams of B17 apart. bombers on their way to targets in Occupied In Australia, the vast bulk of air traffic Europe, each trailing four stark white contrails. flies within relatively narrow corridors along It is a standard feature of such movies and the eastern and southern coasts and military originates with a documentary, Memphis Belle airfields tend to lie within the same area. As made for the US Defense Department by a result, while most of us have seen contrails, prominent Hollywood director, William Wyler. they’re not all that common. The same does not Of course, in the real war, crews tried to apply to Great Britain with roughly three times avoid flying at the altitude where contrails our population and only three per cent of our propagated. No one wanted to send such landmass, and it is here that geography makes obvious signals to opposing fighters as to where itself felt. It is a fact that a resident of Great to aim, and in practice they attempted to fly Britain cannot be more than roughly 100km just below that height so they could see the from the sea and it would be likely that the bulk trails of fighters bouncing the bomber stream of them would live in even closer proximity to from above. an airport or military air base. This became apparent as we were there in August and September, exactly 59 years since the Battle of Britain was at its height, and the skies of London were criss-crossed by vapour trails. Not whirling and swirling to the distant rattle of machine guns, but straight ahead as people went about their lawful occasions. This was confirmed as we travelled around the country, with many contrails being evident on any day when the skies were clear. One particular day we noticed a curious phenomenon associated with contrails. We were staying in a cottage in mid-Wales. As we set out we noticed two sets of ruler straight contrails heading east and some distance apart. It was a clear day and as we travelled south we noticed that the trails were spreading until they merged and by our evening return the whole sky was covered by a thin cirrus cloud. All the result of a couple of aircraft flying at an altitude where 58 The Skeptic June 15

condensation around hot engine exhausts had air shows and the like. A feature of such displays left a visible signature. was the sort of spectacle as illustrated in Jo’s I don’t know, though Jo probably does, story - each aircraft trailing a plume of coloured whether ‘chemtrail’ hysteria is widespread smoke (not condensation). Very spectacular. in either Australia or the United Kingdom, Though my squadron was not part of the but I would guess not. We see two countries, official display team, our CO decided that we could do just as well with our own resources and decreed (unofficially, of course) that we should modify one of our birds to put on a show. As we didn’t have all the necessary paraphernalia to complete such a modification, our clever technicians attached a length of hydraulic piping from an internal oil reservoir, along the outside skin of the Sabre, ending in a nozzle protruding into the jet efflux at the rear of the aircraft. On testing, it did produce a quite effective dirty white plume of smoke - colours defeated us - but someone more important than our CO thought it a bad idea and so our noble experiment ended. In the second case, the base involved was located adjacent to a large swampy area and was consequently, in the appropriate season, inundated with mosquitoes. Back then, it was common for standing water which might encourage mozzie breeding to have a layer of kerosene applied, the theory being that when mosquito larvae came to the surface of the water to breathe, the layer of kero would prevent this and so destroy the insects. It so happens that the fuel used by jet aircraft is kerosene and it was also the case that our base was the home to a number of twin-seat Vampire jet training aircraft which, like all aircraft, one where contrails are not unusual but not could be fitted with external drop tanks. One common enough to excite sinister speculation of our engineers, seeing the mosquito problem and another where these phenomena are far and realising that there was plenty of mosquito more frequent but where clear skies are less eliminating fluid at hand, therein saw a solution. common and so most of them go unnoticed. Somehow, he devised a method whereby the fuel Based on these factors, I would further guess in the drop tanks could be released as a spray. that the centre of ‘chemtrail’ speculation would The project was taken in hand and within days be in the United States. With a similar land an observant bystander near the swamp would area to Australia, wide open skies and with a far have been treated to the spectacle of the world’s larger population and incidence of air travel, only jet propelled crop duster giving the mozzies it would appear to be a natural for this sort of hell. thing. It seemed to work as the mosquito infestation Finally, from a former life as a member of eased off after that, but I doubt very much if the RAAF, I can report on a couple of instances either of these examples of human ingenuity of deliberate spraying of chemicals into the would be allowed today. atmosphere. The first I can attest from personal experience and the second from anecdote, Barry Williams though I have reason to believe it is true. Skeptics Towers Retirement Home In the 1960s, as a technician, I was posted to a squadron flying Sabre fighters. At this time many Air Forces, including the RAAF, had their own flying display teams which performed at 59 ARE YOU SKEPTICAL? Skeptics think critically where there is doubt. The Skepticpromotes skepticism, reason, science, education, critical thinking and common sense.

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Total enclosed: $ …………………… www.skeptics.com.au Send to: The Skeptic Ph: (02) 8094 1894 PO Box 20 Fax: (02) 8088 4735 Beecroft NSW 2119 email: [email protected] LETTERS To the Editor The Skeptic June 15

prevents a hangover. And, as if to validate old western superstitions, one What you think ... Vietnamese businessman claims it is - yes! - an aphrodisiac. And so rhino horn Horn correction actually works. Those performed in is now worth US$100,000 per kilogram China tended to find it does have in Vietnam, and businessmen give it to a slight effect (anti-pyretic, anti- each other to seal important deals. hen reprinting Anthony inflammatory, analgesic, procoagulant), What can we say about Anthony’s WWheeler’s Classic Catch article, while tests done outside China find statement “Fortunately the dishonest “Horns of a Dilemma” [The Skeptic no effect. (Odd, that?) That was just a substitution of African rhinoceros’ 35:1, p32] from The Skepticof 1994, single randomized double-blind trial; horn ... as the real thing has relieved it is a pity that the misinformation on it found a short-lived effect of fever in the pressure on its Asian cousin - an rhino horn remained intact and was children, but was far outperformed by example of dishonesty producing a not updated. I wrote an article, “Bad acetaminophen. more desirable outcome!”? Since I medicine for wildlife”, in The Skeptic, Maybe, therefore, TCM has wrote my 1993 article, recording the Vol.13, No.1 (Autumn 1993), in which something in it in this case, but the destruction of more than 90 per cent I gave the correct information as far as readiness with which TCM practitioners of the Black Rhino population, the it was known up to then. have ditched it, at the Chinese Western Black Rhino has been declared Rhino horn is not an aphrodisiac in government’s urging, suggests that it is extinct, the Nile (“Northern White”) China. Traditional Chinese medicine not an essential curative. rhino has been reduced to five, post- lists it as fever-reducing drug. How Today’s big threat to rhinos comes productive individuals, there is now the ‘western’ superstition that it was from Vietnam, and has little to do incredible pressure on the still-abundant Chinese aphrodisiac arose is unclear; with TCM and everything to do Southern White Rhino, and dozens of in my 1993 article I suggested one with gullibility, sheer rumour, and wildlife wardens have lost their lives possibility. millionaires with too little to spend defending their charges against well- In her 2012 report, “Assessment of their money on. A government minister armed poachers. rhino horn as a traditional medicine”, was rumoured to have cured his cancer Kristin Nowell mentions a number with rhino horn. Someone thought Colin Groves of lab studies on whether rhino horn that, ground up in water, rhino horn O’Connor ACT

Explaining a 365, I ask how many tries would be 4 x 27 is the same as 12 x 9 and = 108. needed to have a 50 per cent chance of Add 108 to 270 and there you have it paradox getting a matching pair? When I suggest - 378. More than the 365 we agreed was 365 tries, most people readily accept a reasonable number. the idea. Then I ask how many people I know the correct answer is 23, not have read your excellent article “Asking would you need in a room to get 365 28, and I agree that the mathematics IFor Trouble” in The Skeptic [35:1, tries? I suggest 28 and admittedly many of the problem are beyond the p20]. In the discussion you mention the people think the number is too small, comprehension of most people. ‘Birthday Paradox’. I sometimes discuss but then I go through a process of I am well aware that the correct that example of probability with people pairing to justify the number. The first mathematical explanation is freely but have a different approach from the person declares their birthday and asks available on several internet sites, but one you mention. if anyone else has the same birthday? my discussion of the so called paradox Firstly, I would not call the 27 tries result. That person leaves the is not about mathematics. It’s about proposition a paradox. I think it is room and the next tries their birthday, communication and education. I have mainly a failure of clear thinking, this time resulting in 26 tries. And so explained what the question is and because I believe most people on until the room is empty. How many that helps some people. Then I have misunderstand what is asked about the tries have been made? 27 + 26 + 25 ...... explained how combinations work and two birthdays occurring. When it is + 1. Too hard to work out? No it’s easy. how arithmetic can be easier than it explained that we are looking for any It is a series like 1 + 2 + 3 + 4 + 5. The first appears. That helps some as well, pair of birthdays, not a particular pair, it answer is found by multiplying the last especially young people. If I help one starts to get easier to understand. Then number by the middle one, 3 x 5 = 15 person to think a little more clearly, I am intuition and arithmetic can deliver a in that case and 14 x 27 in the case of pleased. solution of the correct magnitude. the birthdays. After explaining that we are looking 14 x 27 = (10 x 27) +( 4 x 27) Tom Hart for any matching pair of days out of 10 x 27 = 270 Gisborne VIC 61 LETTERS To the Editor

Missing Confrontation blows at worst, that makes family gatherings at the dinner table a bed cosmology in the family of hot coals - and he probably walks on those too! im Harding writes “nothing our article on confrontation T much happened in cosmology Y[The Skeptic, 35:1, p20] Name withheld for about 1400 years between Ptolemy mentions possible problems over the at the author’s request and Copernicus”. [The Skeptic, 35:1, dinner table. Unfortunately, in my p42]. I commend to him a recent case, only too true. book Pathfinders - The Golden Age of I have a family member whose Arabic Science by Jim Al-Khalili. He ‘open mind’ lets absolutely points to a hell of a lot that happened anything fall through, from the in this time, but was/is unknown to most ridiculous conspiracy theories Europeans. It certainly opened my (world government, CIA-caused eyes, ‘natural’ disasters - apparently Just one example from his book Rupert Murdoch was also is Omar Khayyam (1048-1131) well involved in one) to a sympathy for known to me as the author of the Creationism, chemtrails, magnetic Rubaiyat. He was also one of the cures, the power of Qi, all the way greatest medieval mathematicians and to anti-vax and homeopathy. cosmologists. He devised a solution to One problem is he will change his cubic equations, measured the length preferred piece of woo from month of the solar year correct to six decimal to month. He was once convinced places, and produced a calendar that perpetual motion was real, and now is more accurate than the one we totally denies he ever believed it. currently use. It certainly helps fill in All of that means you’re never the ‘gap’. sure what the current sensitivities Charlie Carter are going to be. At the fear of long Alice Springs NT arguments at best, or coming to

CRYPTIC CROSSWORD SOLUTION DR BOB’S QUIZ SOLUTIONS

A I B O H P O T C Y C R R E

N 1. It’s fermented herring, and due to build up of gases

I U R I R E T

C inside the can, it starts to swell or bloat.

B I L D A O T O L C O T S A

R 2. He died on the same day as Stalin (and everyone was

O C E I O C T

G too busy celebrating)

H C T A P I N O I T I D U R

E 3. Egypt ran on a 7-day week. Until then Rome had

P H M K R N B

N worked on an 8-day week. The soldiers liked the idea of

M Y G N I K C I T U O Y A B

S getting a day off a bit more often, and as there were many

L I L A I N G

A of them, it did seem a rather a good idea so it

A I N A M I I A V U D L S E O was rationalised in AD321.

B B S B E E L

E 4. Brain cells are pink – they only go grey when you’re dead.

I K I T I R O A M T U O L C

H 5. The Complutensian Polyglot was the first printed edition

N R M H A T D

N of the Greek New Testament (together with other

N R U N I F P I L O G I M A

U languages). It was printed 1514 – 1517 in a Spanish town

A 0 N U S N R R named Alcala (Latin name: Complutum).

C O H H K E D I A K S I R T A You can see more like this, every month and going back some years, at https://drbobsquiz.wordpress.com 62 The Skeptic June 15

Local Skeptical Groups

VICTORIA TASMANIA

Ballarat Skeptics Launceston Skeptics Meets the first Friday of the month at Seymours on Lydiard Street Contact: Jin-oh Choi, 0408 271 800 https://www.facebook.com/groups/39781220309544 [email protected] www.launcestonskeptics.com Citizens for Science – Mornington Peninsula (formerly Peninsula Skeptics, aka The Celestial Teapot) Launceston: Skeptics in the Pub Contacts: Graeme Hanigan 0438 359 600 1st & 3rd Thursday of each month http://www.meetup.com/Citizens-for-Science/ 5.30pm @ The Royal Oak Hotel www.facebook.com/groups/peninsula.skeptics/ Launceston: Skeptical Sunday Great Ocean Road Skeptics – (Geelong) 2nd Sunday of each month Meets on the last Wednesday of each month from 6pm, City 2.00pm @ Cube Cafe Quarter, Cunningham Pier East Geelong Contact: Carolyn Coulson [email protected] QUEENSLAND https://www.facebook.com/groups/147741491945391/ The Surfcoast Summer Skepticamp is run annually by Brisbane Skeptics in the Pub members Meets on the first Tuesday of each month from 6:30pm at the Plough Inn, Southbank Melbourne Eastern Hills Skeptics in the Pub http://Brisbanesitp.wordpress.com - Meets second Monday of each month at The Knox Club, follow links for Facebook, Twitter and email list Wantirna South. Contact: Andrew Rawlings [email protected] http://mehsitp.codenix.org https://www.facebook.com/pages/Melbourne-Eastern-Hills- Skeptics-in-the-Pub/19241290737690?ref=ts

Melbourne Skeptics in the Pub Meets on the fourth Monday of every month from 6 pm at the Mt View Hotel in Richmond. http://www.melbourneskeptics.com.au/skeptics-in-the-pub/

Mordi Skeptics in The Pub Meets at 7.30pm on the first Tuesday of each month at the Mordialloc Sporting Club. ($2 to cover website costs) http://www.meetup.com/Mordi-Skeptics-in-the-Pub/

NOTE: LISTINGS WELCOME We invite listings for any Skeptical groups based on local rather than regional areas. Email us at editor@ skeptics.com.au with details of your organisation’s name, contact details and any regular functions, eg Skeptics in the Pub, with time, day of the month, location etc. Because this is a quarterly journal and most local groups meet monthly, it is unlikely we will be able to include references to specific speakers or events. #AusSkepCon

October 16th – 18th

convention.brisbaneskeptics.org