Hot and Bothered Violence, Aggression, and Global Warming

EXPLORATIONS Hot and Bothered: Violence, Aggression, and Global Warming || Larry Dossey, MD || We believe there is overwhelming and three colleagues published a fasci- HOTHEADS evidence of a strong relationship nating paper showing that environmen- Larrick's baseball study is consistent with between changes in temperature in tal heat changes how pitchers respond decades of prior research linking tem- particular, and various types of when one of their teammates has been perature with behaviors ranging from human conflicts.1 — hit by a pitch. They found if the honking horns to committing violent Marshall Burke, Stanford 5 University temperature is high, a pitcher is more crimes. likely to hit a batter in retaliation. In 2014, in a working paper released In baseball, a “beanball” is a ball that Larrick and his colleagues analyzed by the National Bureau of Economic is pitched with the intention of hitting 57,293 MLB games played between Research, Stanford researcher Marshall or “beaning” the batter. There is a long- 1952 and 2009, which had 4,566,468 Burke and two colleagues presented a standing tradition that if a teammate is “at bats.” In their regression analysis they meta-analysis of a large body of studies hit or “beaned” by a pitch, a player on controlled for variables that might influ- on the relationship of environmental the opposing team must be hit in return ence hitting a batter, such as year, temperature and aggression, violence, —a form of retributive justice often attendance, the inning, the use of a and conflict. After discarding studies referred to as “a batter for a batter.” This designated hitter, and pitcher variables with obvious flaws, 56 studies remained. is a signal that a team will not tolerate such as walks, wild pitches, and errors. They dealt with various forms of vio- their players being hit, and that if they They calculated that a batter statistically lence, from fistfights to wars. The are hit the other team's players will be has less than a 1% chance that he will be authors found compelling evidence of 2 hit as well, evening the score. hit by a pitch each time he steps to the a link between changes in temperature A harmless tradition? Hardly. “Throw- plate. In around 2400 MLB games and escalations in conflict, saying, “[D] ing a baseball at 90 miles per hour or played each year, about 1550 batters will eviations from moderate temperatures more at another human being qualifies be hit by a pitch during the season. and precipitation patterns systematically as ‘assault with a deadly weapon,’” writes When they overlaid game data with increase the risk of conflict, often sub- sports journalist Adam Felder. “Every weather data, the researchers found that stantially, with average effects that are season, numerous pitchers are instructed if all games were played at 55°, around highly significant.”1 In his review of to throw—with intent to injure—at 1450 batters would be hit. If all games Burke's finding, science journalist Chris members of the opposite team. Every were played at 95°, the number of hit Mooney observes in the Washington season, these intentional hits result in batters would increase to about 1650. Post, “Bottom line: In an ever warming bad blood, threats of future violence, Summing up, Larrick says, “We don’t world, expect more wars, civil unrest, and occasionally serious injury to think that heat increases aggression in and strife, and also more violent crime players whose livelihoods depend on general, but that it increases a special in general.”5 their ability to stay fit.” Injury is not type of aggression: retribution.”2 Burke cites Shakespeare as someone always intentional and it is not always Other studies show that hot weather who recognized the heat-and-violence minor. Ray Chapman, a shortstop for primes people for vengeance in general. connection. In Romeo and Juliet, Benvo- the Cleveland Indians, was the last For example, payback, reprisal, or retalia- lio tells his friend Mercutio that being player to be killed by a pitch. He was tion is more likely when people are con- out in the heat is not a good idea, accidentally hit in the head by New fined in hotter rooms. According to one considering the ongoing feud between York Yankees pitcher Carl Mays in observer, “That may explain why violent the Montagues and the Capulets: 1920. “That MLB [Major League Base- crime increases in the summer months, ' ball] has gone nearly an entire century although researchers have yet to determine I pray thee, good Mercutio, let s without another on-field fatality has less whether temperature plays a role or if retire: to do with improvements in player attacks go up because more people are The day is hot, the Capulets safety and more to do with dumb luck,” interacting on the streets.”4 That'swhere abroad, says Felder.3 Larrick's research has an advantage. He ‘ Our understanding of the “batter for a says, “Studying baseball is helpful because And, if we meet, we shall not scape a brawl; batter” tradition has been recently it removes the confounding variables of expanded. In 2011, Richard P. Larrick, real life. It's controlled—as long as fans For now, these hot days, is the mad a social psychologist at Duke University, stay in their seats.”4 blood stirring.6 Explorations EXPLORE September/October 2017, Vol. 13, No. 5 285 Many fiction writers have described and again, around the world and environmental journalist Andy Kroll. “A connections between hot weather and throughout human history, is that Republican president—Richard Nixon— violence. An example is mystery writer climatic events are a cause of social signed into law the Clean Air Act, Raymond Chandler, who has his fic- conflict. They are not the only cause, approved the Council on Environmental tional detective Philip Marlowe say in but in places where there is a risk of Quality and established the two federal his short story Red Wind, “There was a violence because of non-climate factors, agencies most focused on climate change hot desert wind blowing that night. It climate changes can amplify this risk…. today: the Environmental Protection was one of those hot dry Santa Anas that Data from multiple countries show that Agency and the National Oceanic and come down through the mountain passes high temperatures make small-scale Atmospheric Administration. In Nixon's and curl your hair and make your nerves personal conflicts more likely. For day, environmental protection enjoyed jump and your skin itch. On nights like instance, research shows that hot days bipartisan support. At the signing of the that every booze party ends in a fight. are associated with more rape and Clean Air Act in December 1970, which Meek little wives feel the edge of the murder in the United States and more passed Congress with near unanimity, carving knife and study their husbands’ domestic violence in Australia.” Nixon hailed it as ‘ahistoricpieceof necks. Anything can happen.”7 When risk factors combine, violence legislation that put us far down the road Heat, of itself, does not make people can escalate from the personal to the toward a goal that Theodore Roosevelt, 70 behave violently, Burke and his collea- regional and all hell can break loose. years ago, spoke eloquently about: a goal gues say. They make an analogy to rainy “[H]igh temperatures and, in agrarian of clean air, clean water and open spaces days in which the frequency of car populations, extreme rainfall (either too for the future generations of America.’"11 accidents increases. Even though slick much or too little) amplify the risk of In recent years, however, writes Kroll, pavement and poor visibility are factors, large-scale conflict between groups of “the GOP has only descended further each accident still depends on the people—probably because the eco- into the madness of anti-science deni- choices of drivers as to how they nomic impact of these events alters the alism. And it'snotenoughtosay respond to these conditions. They can political landscape. Multiple studies Republicans have retreated on the issue choose to drive slower and with greater have shown that hotter than average to protect themselves against well- care or not; the rain does not compel temperatures substantially increase the funded primary challengers. Today, them to make mistakes. Similarly, says likelihood of both local-level group denying climate change and environ- Mooney, “Warmer temperatures seem to violence and full-blown civil war in mental degradation is a winning stance, shift the overall background risk for Sub-Saharan Africa.”7 the sure path to loads of campaign cash, violent conflict—but whether someone Hsiang and Burke consider “indispu- plus a way to wage ideological war on commits a violent act remains depen- table” that the Syrian conflict unfolded the Democratic Party. With the GOP dent upon the specific circumstances of against a backdrop of “unprecedented takeover of Congress, the most ardent the individual.”5 warming and a multiyear drought in the climate deniers have been rewarded region. We also know that high tempera- with leadership positions on the com- tures and drought increase the risk of civil mittees that oversee our nation's cli- LARGE-SCALE VIOLENCE war, and that climate change worsened the mate policies.”9 Teasing apart the specific causes of drought. Putting two and two together, it's The newly appointed administrator of violent conflicts in societies is not as entirely possible that climate change made the Environmental Protection Agency, simple as analyzing beanballs in base- Syrian violence more likely than it other- Scott Pruitt, is a lawyer who has made a ball. “In general,” say researchers Solo- wise would have been.

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