EXPLORATIONS

Hot and Bothered: Violence, Aggression, and Global Warming

|| Larry Dossey, MD ||

We believe there is overwhelming and three colleagues published a fasci- HOTHEADS evidence of a strong relationship nating paper showing that environmen- Larrick's baseball study is consistent with between changes in temperature in tal heat changes how pitchers respond decades of prior research linking tem- particular, and various types of when one of their teammates has been perature with behaviors ranging from human conflicts.1 — hit by a pitch. They found if the honking horns to committing violent Marshall Burke, Stanford 5 University temperature is high, a pitcher is more crimes. likely to hit a batter in retaliation. In 2014, in a working paper released In baseball, a “beanball” is a ball that Larrick and his colleagues analyzed by the National Bureau of Economic is pitched with the intention of hitting 57,293 MLB games played between Research, Stanford researcher Marshall or “beaning” the batter. There is a long- 1952 and 2009, which had 4,566,468 Burke and two colleagues presented a standing tradition that if a teammate is “at bats.” In their regression analysis they meta-analysis of a large body of studies hit or “beaned” by a pitch, a player on controlled for variables that might influ- on the relationship of environmental the opposing team must be hit in return ence hitting a batter, such as year, temperature and aggression, violence, —a form of retributive justice often attendance, the inning, the use of a and conflict. After discarding studies referred to as “a batter for a batter.” This designated hitter, and pitcher variables with obvious flaws, 56 studies remained. is a signal that a team will not tolerate such as walks, wild pitches, and errors. They dealt with various forms of vio- their players being hit, and that if they They calculated that a batter statistically lence, from fistfights to wars. The are hit the other team's players will be has less than a 1% chance that he will be authors found compelling evidence of 2 hit as well, evening the score. hit by a pitch each time he steps to the a link between changes in temperature A harmless tradition? Hardly. “Throw- plate. In around 2400 MLB games and escalations in conflict, saying, “[D] ing a baseball at 90 miles per hour or played each year, about 1550 batters will eviations from moderate temperatures more at another human being qualifies be hit by a pitch during the season. and precipitation patterns systematically as ‘assault with a deadly weapon,’” writes When they overlaid game data with increase the risk of conflict, often sub- sports journalist Adam Felder. “Every weather data, the researchers found that stantially, with average effects that are season, numerous pitchers are instructed if all games were played at 55°, around highly significant.”1 In his review of to throw—with intent to injure—at 1450 batters would be hit. If all games Burke's finding, science journalist Chris members of the opposite team. Every were played at 95°, the number of hit Mooney observes in the Washington season, these intentional hits result in batters would increase to about 1650. Post, “Bottom line: In an ever warming bad blood, threats of future violence, Summing up, Larrick says, “We don’t world, expect more wars, civil unrest, and occasionally serious injury to think that heat increases aggression in and strife, and also more violent crime players whose livelihoods depend on general, but that it increases a special in general.”5 their ability to stay fit.” Injury is not type of aggression: retribution.”2 Burke cites Shakespeare as someone always intentional and it is not always Other studies show that hot weather who recognized the heat-and-violence minor. Ray Chapman, a shortstop for primes people for vengeance in general. connection. In Romeo and Juliet, Benvo- the Cleveland Indians, was the last For example, payback, reprisal, or retalia- lio tells his friend Mercutio that being player to be killed by a pitch. He was tion is more likely when people are con- out in the heat is not a good idea, accidentally hit in the head by New fined in hotter rooms. According to one considering the ongoing feud between York Yankees pitcher Carl Mays in observer, “That may explain why violent the Montagues and the Capulets: 1920. “That MLB [Major League Base- crime increases in the summer months, ' ball] has gone nearly an entire century although researchers have yet to determine I pray thee, good Mercutio, let s without another on-field fatality has less whether temperature plays a role or if retire: to do with improvements in player attacks go up because more people are The day is hot, the Capulets safety and more to do with dumb luck,” interacting on the streets.”4 That'swhere abroad, says Felder.3 Larrick's research has an advantage. He ‘ Our understanding of the “batter for a says, “Studying baseball is helpful because And, if we meet, we shall not scape a brawl; batter” tradition has been recently it removes the confounding variables of expanded. In 2011, Richard P. Larrick, real life. It's controlled—as long as fans For now, these hot days, is the mad a social psychologist at Duke University, stay in their seats.”4 blood stirring.6

Explorations EXPLORE September/October 2017, Vol. 13, No. 5 285 Many fiction writers have described and again, around the world and environmental journalist Andy Kroll. “A connections between hot weather and throughout human history, is that Republican president—Richard Nixon— violence. An example is mystery writer climatic events are a cause of social signed into law the Clean Air Act, Raymond Chandler, who has his fic- conflict. They are not the only cause, approved the Council on Environmental tional detective Philip Marlowe say in but in places where there is a risk of Quality and established the two federal his short story Red Wind, “There was a violence because of non-climate factors, agencies most focused on climate change hot desert wind blowing that night. It climate changes can amplify this risk…. today: the Environmental Protection was one of those hot dry Santa Anas that Data from multiple countries show that Agency and the National Oceanic and come down through the mountain passes high temperatures make small-scale Atmospheric Administration. In Nixon's and curl your hair and make your nerves personal conflicts more likely. For day, environmental protection enjoyed jump and your skin itch. On nights like instance, research shows that hot days bipartisan support. At the signing of the that every booze party ends in a fight. are associated with more rape and Clean Air Act in December 1970, which Meek little wives feel the edge of the murder in the United States and more passed Congress with near unanimity, carving knife and study their husbands’ domestic violence in Australia.” Nixon hailed it as ‘ahistoricpieceof necks. Anything can happen.”7 When risk factors combine, violence legislation that put us far down the road Heat, of itself, does not make people can escalate from the personal to the toward a goal that Theodore Roosevelt, 70 behave violently, Burke and his collea- regional and all hell can break loose. years ago, spoke eloquently about: a goal gues say. They make an analogy to rainy “[H]igh temperatures and, in agrarian of clean air, clean water and open spaces days in which the frequency of car populations, extreme rainfall (either too for the future generations of America.’"11 accidents increases. Even though slick much or too little) amplify the risk of In recent years, however, writes Kroll, pavement and poor visibility are factors, large-scale conflict between groups of “the GOP has only descended further each accident still depends on the people—probably because the eco- into the madness of anti-science deni- choices of drivers as to how they nomic impact of these events alters the alism. And it'snotenoughtosay respond to these conditions. They can political landscape. Multiple studies Republicans have retreated on the issue choose to drive slower and with greater have shown that hotter than average to protect themselves against well- care or not; the rain does not compel temperatures substantially increase the funded primary challengers. Today, them to make mistakes. Similarly, says likelihood of both local-level group denying climate change and environ- Mooney, “Warmer temperatures seem to violence and full-blown civil war in mental degradation is a winning stance, shift the overall background risk for Sub-Saharan Africa.”7 the sure path to loads of campaign cash, violent conflict—but whether someone Hsiang and Burke consider “indispu- plus a way to wage ideological war on commits a violent act remains depen- table” that the Syrian conflict unfolded the Democratic Party. With the GOP dent upon the specific circumstances of against a backdrop of “unprecedented takeover of Congress, the most ardent the individual.”5 warming and a multiyear drought in the climate deniers have been rewarded region. We also know that high tempera- with leadership positions on the com- tures and drought increase the risk of civil mittees that oversee our nation's cli- LARGE-SCALE VIOLENCE war, and that climate change worsened the mate policies.”9 Teasing apart the specific causes of drought. Putting two and two together, it's The newly appointed administrator of violent conflicts in societies is not as entirely possible that climate change made the Environmental Protection Agency, simple as analyzing beanballs in base- Syrian violence more likely than it other- Scott Pruitt, is a lawyer who has made a ball. “In general,” say researchers Solo- wise would have been. Nevertheless, we career out of suing the agency. Pruitt mon Hsiang and Marshall Burke, cannot prove that climate change caused claims that carbon dioxide is not a “conflicts are complex events—the result this specificconflict.”7 primary contributor to global warm- of many instigating factors, not just one. ing.12 John Holdren, director of the When we notice that violence occurs at White House Office of Science and the same time as a major climatic event, AMERICA'S STANCE Technology Policy under President like the war in Syria erupting at the same Barack Obama, called Pruitt's claim time as drought, we don’t ask, ‘Was the We will never be able to tackle “the purest ignorance.”13 Pruitt's stance climate change if we continue to climactic event the cause of the con- threatens to make “environmental fl ’ ‘ live in a post-truth age, where fac- ” ict? Rather, we ask Was the climactic tual accuracy plays second fiddle to protection an exercise in hypocrisy. fl ’ event a cause of the con ict? It might political ideology.9 In contrast, the percentage of be that you need both ethnic rivalries — Americans who are concerned about fl Mark Lynas, Alliance for Science, and a drought to create a con ict, and Cornell University global warming has steadily increased missing either key ingredient might lead in recent years and is now at a three- to a more peaceful outcome.”8 Hsiang Only one major political party in the decade high. A March 2017Gallup poll and Burke elaborate, “We’ve studied world denies climate change, and it'sin found that 45% of US citizens worry “a many types of violence—including charge of the most important political great deal” about global warming, up sports violence, murder, gang violence, body on earth: the United States Con- from 37% in 2016; 42% believe global riots and civil wars. What we find time gress.10 “It wasn'talwaysso,” says warming poses “a serious threat;” and

286 EXPLORE September/October 2017, Vol. 13, No. 5 Explorations 62% say effects of global warming are countries, prompting one observer to say, climate change conflict with those of happening now.14 “Trump may have just signed a death Secretary of Defense James Mattis. In March 2017 the New York Times warrant for our planet … at least, for a Secretary Mattis, a retired US Marine published six maps showing how adult planet that is livable for humans….”21,22 Corps general, states, “Climate change Americans think about climate change Trump appointed Rex Tillerson, the can be a driver of instability and the and regulations on carbon emissions.15 former CEO of ExxonMobil, the largest Department of Defense must pay atten- The maps were based on data from fossil fuel energy corporation in the tion to potential adverse impacts gener- researchers at Yale University.16 According world, as US Secretary of State. Tillerson ated by this phenomenon.”32 In March to their nationwide survey, 70% of joined ExxonMobil in 1975 and served 2017 the Center for Climate and Americans think global warming is as chairman and CEO from 2006 to Security (CCS), a policy institute with happening. More than half understand 2016. His retirement package from an advisory board of retired senior it is human-caused and 71% say they the company in 2016 was $180 mil- military officers and national security trust climate scientists. lion.23 Under Tillerson's leadership, experts, applauded Secretary Mattis’ This is in sharp distinction to Presi- ExxonMobil became infamous for its “clear-eyed view” on the national dent Donald J. Trump, who has taken denial of climate change and for its security risks of a changing climate.33 nearly every conceivable point of view financial support of climate change The climate alarm has also been on global warming and climate change. deniers in Congress. Documents sounded by the American Association In 2012 he tweeted that global warming suggest that Tillerson's corporation has for the Advancement of Science, the was “bullshit” and that “the concept of spent $33 million to sew doubt and world's largest general scientific society. global warming was created by and denial about global warming.24 In March 2014 the AAAS released a for the Chinese in order to make ExxonMobil is under investigation for report warning that human-caused cli- U.S. manufacturing non-competitive.”17 allegedly misleading the public about mate change is leading to food and water According to the Washington Post, in the climate change, an action that shortages, extreme heat waves and past 10 years he has denied that climate environmentalist Bill McKibben calls droughts, rising sea levels, and stronger change is happening and called it a “the most consequential lie in human storms.34,35 And in May 2014, 16 retired hoax; suggested that the world is history.”25 It is questionable, however, three- and four-star generals and admir- actually warming, but that humans whether this investigation will amount als issued a report claiming that global aren't involved; suggested that the to much under a Trump presidency. warming and climate change are here world is warming and that humans had Sen. Jeff Sessions, Donald Trump's now. They added the additional warning a “minor” effect; suggested that the choice as attorney general, has been a that global warming represents a world is warming and that there is vocal opponent of investigating the oil national security threat to the US as some “connectivity” to human giant for climate fraud, and he has well as to the security and stability of behavior; and called for the adoption received hundreds of thousands of other nations of the world, calling it “a – of policies to curtail human-caused dollars from fossil fuel industries.26 28 catalyst for conflict….” They warned, climate change in order to stimulate “Political posturing and budgetary woes the economy.18 Only a soothsayer cannot be allowed to inhibit discussion could fathom what Trump really THE VIEW FROM THE MILITARY and debate over what so many believe to believes, or if the concept of “belief” Trump's dismissive views of global be a salient national security concern for even applies. warming and climate change are ser- our nation. …Time and tide wait for no In any case, Trump's actions speak iously at odds with those of the US one.”36 louder than words. He appointed EPA military. The evidence of a link between foe Scott Pruitt as head of the agency, as climate change and conflict is solid mentioned. He vowed to “bring back enough to have motivated action by THE VENGEFUL PRESIDENT coal” as a mainstay of America's energy the US national security establishment. 19 You hit me, I hit you back twice as policy. He campaigned on a pledge The evidence has also spurred research hard.37 to boost the US oil and gas drilling projects at the CIA, the Defense —Donald J. Trump and coal mining industries by reducing Advanced Research Projects Agency, regulation. In March 2017, Trump signed and other federal agencies. The 2010 Other countries now need dual sets a sweeping executive order initiating Quadrennial Defense Review and the of policies for everything. The pol- areviewofObama's Clean Power 2010 National Security Strategy identi- icy that you would have if Donald Plan, rescinding the moratorium on coal fied climate change as a threat to US Trump understood things. And the mining on US federal lands and urged national security, in part because of its policy that you have to have if Donald Trump gets mad and lashes federal agencies to “identify all potential to foment political instability out at you.38 regulations, all rules, all policies … that in strategically important regions such as —Yael Eisenstat, former national serve as obstacles and impediments to the Middle East. An overall theme of security adviser American energy independence.”20 He these reports is that a hotter world will – has pledged to pull the United States likely be a more violent world.29 31 Donald J. Trump is the most threa- out of the 2015 Paris agreement to cut So it is not surprising that Trump's tening, litigious president in American greenhouse gases agreed by nearly 200 dismissive views of global warming and history. He said in his campaign, “Look,

Explorations EXPLORE September/October 2017, Vol. 13, No. 5 287 anybody that hits me, we’re going to hit saying, “If you don’tfundtheState Individually our actions are trivial. Collec- them ten times harder.”39 Npr.com Department fully, then I need to buy tively they are a mighty force. reports that during his business career more ammunition ultimately.”48 Trump “has been named in more than We have a president who is retributive 4,000 suits, either as a plaintiff or and vindictive, like a pitcher throwing BEANBALL VARIATIONS defendant, in everything from branding beanballs, but on the national and inter- and contract disputes to defamation national stage instead of the baseball We often forget that we are nature. cases….,”and that he has systematically field. And like a batter seeing a beanball Nature is not something separate from used baseless threats of frivolous lawsuits coming, our allies and the rest of the us. So when we say that we have lost to deter people from criticizing him.40 world are learning to duck. our connection to nature, we’ve lost During his presidential campaign, he our connection to ourselves. said he planned to “open up” libel laws ―Andy Goldsworthy in the United States so that he could sue CHILL OUT news organizations more easily.41 Many Few of us will ever stand in a batter's Revenge is a dish best served cold. of his threats are over minor criticism or box on a hot day fearing that a pitcher will —Proverb facts that most observers consider to be “bean” us with a 90 mile-an-hour fastball. undeniably true. Among his favorite Craig A. Anderson, of Iowa State But that does not spare us from heat- targets are journalists who report University, is an international authority related violence. And not all heat-related unfavorable stories and women who say on heat-related violence. He states, “The violence is of human origin. An array of he touched them inappropriately. A list heat hypothesis states that hot tempera- pathogenic microbes is more lethal in of 43 of these threats and five of his tures can increase aggressive motives and warmer temperatures, which is why we lawsuits has been assembled by the behaviors. …Hot temperatures increase have refrigerators. Lethal mosquito-born watchdog site trump-clock.com. As the aggression by directly increasing feelings diseases such as yellow fever and malaria site reports, “Trump knows that he of hostility and indirectly increasing are becoming increasingly widespread doesn'thavetoactuallysue—getting an aggressive thoughts. …Better climate because mosquitos are thriving in the ominous letter from a lawyer is often controls in many institutional settings warmer conditions we are creating. New enough to scare into silence. On rare (prisons, schools, the workplace) may arrivals such as Zika virus are finding occasions, Trump has actually followed reduce aggression-related problems in ecological niches in southern Florida and through on his threats, dragging critics these settings [emphasis added].”49 Texas. Infectious-disease authorities warn and journalists through years of litigation What about the workplace of our that microbes represent the greatest secur- just to make them spend money to vengeful president? Might Anderson's cli- ity threat our society faces, and that this defend themselves. He has never won mate-control proposals apply to him? danger will increase in a warmer world.55 one of these lawsuits and has boasted Should we lower the thermostats and Environmental heat does not make about wasting critics' time and money on chill down the White House? Trump nonviolent people violent, unless the defending frivolous lawsuits.”42 Tower? Mar-a-Lago? Should we discou- seed or capacity for violence is already In a phone call with the Mexican pre- rage Trump's frequent golf vacations into present. But if present, violence can sident in February 2017, Trump threatened the hot climate of southern Florida? externalize and leave its tracks in the to send U.S. troops to stop "bad hombres world. As Pope Francis has said, “The down there.”43 He threatened China with a violence that exists in the human heart trade war.44 Trump appeared to tweet- CITIZEN ACTION … is also manifest in the symptoms of threaten James Robart, the federal district In the absence of executive leadership, illness that we see in the Earth, the judge in Washington who ordered a citizen action remains the most effective water, the air and in living things.”56 nationwide halt to his order blocking avenue for confronting a warmer world That is why our efforts to control immigrants and refugees from seven and the violence that predictably comes global warming must include, but go Muslim-majority countries.45 In his failed with it. The actions of ordinary citizens beyond, external measures. We must effort to push through efforts to repeal the remain a potent force. On 24 March, look inside as well. ACA or Obamacare in March 2017, he 2017, the Republican effort to “repeal The larger lesson is that we cannot warned recalcitrant GOP lawmakers, “I’m and replace” theAffordableCareAct secede from nature because we are nat- coming after you.”46 As further evidence of (which one-third of citizens don’tknow ure. As Buddhist scholar Alan Watts put his preference for force, as of this writing is the same thing as Obamacare) went it, “Just as an apple tree ‘apples,’ the he has proposed slashing the diplomacy- down in defeat largely as a result of citizen universe ‘peoples.’” Thus, as the planet oriented budget of the US State protest.50 Only 17% of citizens said they becomes cranky with a hotter climate— Department in favor of large increases in approved of the replacement bill, and only more storms and droughts—so too do the defense budget, even though more 6% said they “strongly approved” of the we veer off balance psychologically, than 120 retired generals and admirals replacement measure.51,52 This is a spiritually, and physically, more prone protested his move in a letter stating that resounding example that what we think toward aggression, violence and war in a State Department funding is “critical to and do as individuals—our “quotidian warmer world. keeping America safe.”47 Trump'sown choices,” as Explore columnist Stephan A. The connection between temperature, Secretary of State, James Mattis objected, Schwartz calls them—matter greatly.53,54 mood and behavior provides a glimpse

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