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Georisk: Assessment and Management of Risk for Engineered Systems and Geohazards Publication details, including instructions for authors and subscription information: http://www.informaworld.com/smpp/title~content=t744347545 Hazard and risk from large landslides from Mount Meager volcano, British Columbia, Canada Pierre Friele a; Matthias Jakob b; John Clague c a Cordilleran Geoscience, Squamish, BC, Canada b BGC Engineering Inc., Vancouver, BC, Canada c Centre for Natural Hazard Research, Simon Fraser University, Burnaby, BC, Canada
Online Publication Date: 01 March 2008 To cite this Article: Friele, Pierre, Jakob, Matthias and Clague, John (2008) 'Hazard and risk from large landslides from Mount Meager volcano, British Columbia, Canada', Georisk: Assessment and Management of Risk for Engineered Systems and Geohazards, 2:1, 48 - 64 To link to this article: DOI: 10.1080/17499510801958711 URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/17499510801958711
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Downloaded By: [Friele, Pierre] At: 20:18 22 February 2008 http://www.informaworld.com 10.1080/17499510801958711 DOI: online # 1749-9526 print/ISSN 1749-9518 ISSN 48 2008, March 1, No. 2, Vol. Georisk aadadrs rmlrelnsie rmMutMae ocn,BiihClmi,Canada Columbia, British a volcano, Meager Mount from landslides large from risk and Hazard Crepnigato.Eal [email protected] Email: author. *Corresponding Columbia’ Pro- British for in Development Assessments Residential ‘Guide- Landslide posed Legislated released for Columbia lines British of Geoscientists protocols international and management. is risk Canadian for and for reproducible, basis and the transparent, systematic, assessment’, acceptable. risk is risk ‘quantitative termed estimated approach, the This find or of stakeholders whether determining not consequence (3) and and occurrence, probability hazards, landslide landslide the of quantifying inventory (2) an developing (1) by 2005). Graff world de the and around in (Evans and disasters 1997) several (Evans Columbia to British led has quantify landslides adequately neither and long-runout recognise mitiga- to is failure or The planning tion. consequently, into is incorporated best, nor and, at In quantified or, understood recognised 1997). rarely far is Scott poorly risk damage the and managed. cases, cause (Vallance such and can sources assessed, however, fromtheir identified, landslides, be Some sufficient is can with processes that, study, these sources fromlandslides fromspecific of property and originates destructive life to most Risk landsliding. the processes. of hydrologic hazardous One of and variety geomorphic a high-risk to and subject is Canada Western odlea esine qaih C Canada; BC, Squamish, Geoscience, Cordilleran 08Tyo Francis & Taylor 2008 h soito fPoesoa nier and Engineers Professional of Association The quantified be can landslides with associated Risk reso antd,rs oeac hehlsdvlpdi ogKn,Asrla nln,adi one in and safety. England, public Australia, for responsible Kong, by governments Hong local exceeds, for risk in challenge calculated a developed The poses triggered thresholds Meager. finding flows fromnon-eruption Mount This tolerance valley debris at Canada. River risk volcanic in activity Lillooet jurisdiction some landslide magnitude, in floods, Holocene of residents Unlike on to orders process. based risk permitting flows the flows debris the quantify debris volcanic in rare We large, considered warning. but permits not hazards, without building flood and occur are flow of subdivision 65 mitigation Meager of Pemberton, with and Approval Mount Notably, assessment that years. growth. valley, requires from five areas urban areas past inundated River adjacent rapid the flows and experiencing in debris Pemberton Lillooet now size in These are in in and metres. doubled years several has downstream 100 of Meager, past kmfromMount depths kilometres the flow in of and southwest settled in second become tens volcano have per Quaternary metres several a many Meager, reached of fromMount velocities flows have debris Columbia, volcanic large British years, 8000 past the During ersflw volcanism flow; debris Keywords: utrayvlao on egr adld aadadrs;qatttv ikassessment; risk quantitative risk; and hazard landslide Meager; Mount volcano; Quaternary ireFriele Pierre eerh io rsrUiest,Bray C Canada BC, Burnaby, University, Fraser Simon Research, Á 64 a ,Mtha Jakob Matthias *, b G niern n. acue,B,Canada; BC, Vancouver, Inc., Engineering BGC ao 19)cnutdrsac ntemechanics the on unstable research most conducted the and (1996) (1994) Jordan is Jakob geothermal Later, 1990) Canada. Meager in (1978, since massif Mount mountain Read it 1970s. that on the argued out research in of carried began body exploration been large the has of that because study this for could volcano hikers, the users, considered. to be close hotsprings snowmobilers workers, and skiers, resource the although to valley, is River risk focus Lillooet Our in risk. residents existing to standards the risk assessing international for use metric acceptable a we as for reason, guidelines this or For risk. standards cur- no is which has area District, rently study Regional our Squamish-Lillooet 1). of the River (Figure jurisdiction Lillooet Vancouver administrative of upper The kmnorth the 150 in watershed, volca- (MMVC) Meager volcanic complex Mount large the nic by at of posed originating sum- flows risk valley debris and we River hazards Specifically, the Lillooet marise Columbia. the from British risk in southwest acceptable guide- hazards and these we existing landslide on compare paper, to based this lines, In methods, measured. appropriate profes- be apply future will and propose practice present sional guidelines which against The risk standards landslide methodology. standardise to order assessment in 2006, March in b ecoeteMutMae ocnccomplex volcanic Meager Mount the chose We n onClague John and c c etefrNtrlHazard Natural for Centre Downloaded By: [Friele, Pierre] At: 20:18 22 February 2008 fLloe aly h rvoslc fsc a such research of extensive lack the previous with sharply The contrasts valley. residents study to from Lillooet risk flows the debris of assess large quantitatively previously on to use data MMVC we new paper, im- this and the In published study. around provided in our and study for people in petus Stewart’s of growth to since occurrence Accelerated Pemberton the risk event’. with an a deal such to pose strategies that properly preparing to hazards essential is ‘It describe stated 72) p. (2002, Stewart rpi netgtosi ilotvle aecon- al have (Friele et strati- valley supposition Subsurface this Lillooet firmed 2004). in Clague investigations graphic and Friele Stewart 1991, down- 2002, from Slaymaker flows and km (Jordan debris 65 Meager Lillooet volcanic Mount Pemberton, to susceptible of that are village stream, suggested the and have valley (2004). researchers Clague and Several Friele and (2002), Stasiuk by Stewart documented (1996), were 2005) Jakob 8, 9; 7, Large and (classes flows. landslides debris non-eruptive 2005) and Jakob small syn-eruptive 6; and mostly 5, 4, of 3, (classes upper relations of watersheds frequency-magnitude the the including in and rocks, massif volcanic Meager Quaternary Mount the of Creek. from distribution Meager derived the and deposits showing River Landslide Columbia Lillooet (B) British complex. southwestern volcanic of Meager Mount Map (A) 1. Figure nrcgiino hsrs tMutMeager, Mount at risk this of recognition In 2006). . tal et 05 Simpson 2005, . tal et Georisk . h on egrvlai ope osssof consists complex km volcanic 20 about Meager Mount The Setting Columbia. British manage- in risk of policies valley discussion ment a Associates the with conclude Leidal in We Wood 2001). risk Kerr and 1985, hazards (Nesbitt-Porter flood on performed ae nrdoabnae ncardtesi growth in (Clague trees charred position ago, on years ages 2360 radiocarbon on about based occurred and eruption snow last by The covered and are ice. streams slopes upper by its dissected and deeply glaciers, 1994). been (Hickson has volcanic belt massif largest volcanic The the Garibaldi is the it in Pliocene; centre the to back dating oae nteforo ilotvle,32 valley, Lillooet are of settlement floor Meager. downstreamfromMount rural the on associated located and village Pemberton The of and of 1994). outbursts (Hickson floods lakes by and landslide-dammed produced damming, flows river hyperconcentrated debris and associated hazards avalanches rock flows, volcanic large principal collapse, edifice The are Alberta. western as 3 fdctcadryltceutv rocks eruptive rhyolitic and dacitic of tal et 95.I pedaha a east far as ash spread It 1995). . Á 5km 75 49 Downloaded By: [Friele, Pierre] At: 20:18 22 February 2008 50 ennso ag ( large a of Remnants valley Creek Meager in Deposits to used then to are risk (Moon 2 al. plot Table (F-M) less frequency-magnitude in a significantly data generate in The pose safety. considered be thus public may are events and syn-eruptive non-eruptive predicted because 2) only analysis risk (Table 1), the landslides known (Table all compiled triggered Clague Although are and details). Friele events additional (see Meager for discussed fromthe (2006) briefly derived are landslides massif large on Data characterisation Hazard eoi r xoe na2-hg odct80m 800 cut road 20-mhigh a in exposed are deposit okaaacedbi lwPlnP.70 4.5 7900 Pk. Pylon flow avalanche/debris Rock Prehistoric ersfo arcr k 981.2 10 2 1998 2 1986 1984 1.2 10 Ck. Capricorn 10 1972 3 Ck. Affliction Meager Mt 1975 10 1 1947 10 Ck. Capricorn 10 Ck. Devastation 10 1931 flow Debris 210 8 Ck. 150 Devastation avalanche 10 Rock 630 Ck. Capricorn flow Ck. Debris Devastation 10 370 870 avalanche Rock 800 Ck. flow Capricorn 1860 Debris Ck. avalanche Angel Rock Ck. Good 1920 avalanche No 2240 1.2 Rock Ck. Job Ck. Good flow No Debris AD) Ck. (age Job Historic Ck. Job 4.4 2170 flow Ck. Debris Angel 4.4 flow Ck. Debris Job flow Ck. Debris Devastation flow Debris 2400 flow Debris post-eruptive 2400 to Syn- flow Debris flow Debris flow Debris flow Debris Syneruptive flow Debris 10 avalanche Rock flow hyperconcentrated flow/ flood/debris 6250 avalanche/outburst Rock flow 5250 Pyroclastic eruption Ck., Job flow avalanche/debris Rock flow hyperconcentrated Ck. flow/ Capricorn avalanche/debris Rock Ck. flow Job avalanche/debris Rock flow avalanche/debris Rock 3 2 1 Age Source Meager. Mount at hazards Event landslide volcanic of Compilation 1. Table h 20y Pdpstfocr stnaieycreae ihteudtdrc vlnh nuprLloe valley. Lillooet upper burial. in and avalanche erosion rock of undated because the minima with likely correlated are tentatively landslides is prehistoric fromcore of deposit Volumes BP yr 6250 The in age Radiocarbon 05 o MMVC. for 2005) 14 erB.Tectdae r hs htms lsl osri h g fteevent. the of age the constrain closely most that those are ages cited The BP. year C 10 6 Á 10 y-rpie20 2 2 2400 4400 Syn-eruptive precursor Pk Pylon 7 m 3 okavalanche rock ) .Friele P. B 6010 2600 et 0 er 10 years 100 1 2 B)Volume (BP) tal. et ersfo,dtda 150 at dated flow, debris osse frc vlnh n ersfo phases. flow debris and avalanche rock of consisted ftelnsie(..teyugs aiu g) is age), maximum youngest the 5250 (i.e. time the landslide the ages, to the closest radiocarbon of presumably 1). and two (Figure which, of yielded Creek younger has Capricorn of deposit mouth The the of south atreetwssmlrt 1.2 The a area. to same similar the was event in latter Creek Meager dammed likely 10 nteHlcn,oc bu 90yasao(4.5 ago years 7900 about once 10 Holocene, the in produ- 2000), Jakob lake. and 1-kmlong Capri- (Bovis a of cing 1998 mouth in the Creek at corn Creek Meager dammed that 8 8 h ot ln fPlnPa olpe twice collapsed Peak Pylon of flank south The m m 9 3 3 n eodtm bu 40yasao(2 ago years 4400 about time second a and ) 70 Fil n lge20) ahlandslide Each 2004). Clague and (Friele ) 10 10 6 6 5 8 6 8 5 5 5 3 14 Á Á Á Á Á Á Á Á Á 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 (m rB GC55) uhyounger much A (GSC-5454). BP yr C 7 7 8 8 6 7 7 6 5 7 6 6 6 8 9 8 7 9 6 5 5 5 6 6 6 5 3 Reference ) hspaper This (1991) McCuaig and McNeely (1994) Jordan (1991) McCuaig and McNeely (1991) McCuaig and McNeely paper This (1991) McCuaig and McNeely Stasiuk Stasiuk Stasiuk al et Friele Friele (2005) (2004); Clague and Friele (1991) McCuaig and McNeely Friele (2004) Clague and Friele oi n ao (2000) Jakob and Bovis (1987) Evans (1994) Jordan (2001) Evans (1977); Mokievsky-Zubot (1994) Jordan (1978) Read (1983) Croft (1994) Jordan Decker (1932); Carter (1991) McCuaig and McNeely (1991) McCuaig and McNeely (1991) McCuaig and McNeely (2006) . tal et al et tal et al et al et 9 20) Simpson (2005); . (2005) . 60 19) twr (2002) Stewart (1996); . (2002) Stewart (1996); . (2002) Stewart (1996); . 14 rB (GSC-5464), BP yr C 10 6 tal et m 3 (1977); . ersflow debris tal et . Downloaded By: [Friele, Pierre] At: 20:18 22 February 2008 10 10 10 aebe aicro ae t1920 at dated radiocarbon been have vn 01.Toohrlredbi lw have in 3 Creek flows a Devastation (1) debris century: of twentieth watershed large the the other in Two occurred 2001). 1977, (Mokievsky-Zubok Evans 1975 in Creek Devastation ciescug n lca debuttressing. glacial and sackung, active 1 10 Meager. Mount at (m avalanches Volume rock and flows debris non-eruptive for analysis Magnitude-frequency 2. Table m aiu g f370 youngest a of with age ages, maximum 1) radiocarbon (Figure three Creek yielded Good has No at deposit avalanche rock netmtdaeaetikeso 0m tlkl a a had 10 likely it of m, 10 volume of thickness average estimated an 32,rcrsa vn iia nsz oa1.2 a to size in similar event an records 4302), ersu o10mhc Fgr )i xoe na in exposed is 2) (Figure mthick 100 to avalanche up rock debris volcanic stratified, weakly to Massive avalanche rock Pre-eruption been not have deposits published. landslide descriptions previously detailed non-eruptive but (2002), of 1). Stewart Stasiuk (Table and by (1996) documented described are been deposits pre- also Syn-eruptive one has although unit upper instability, eruption slope in eruption subsequent fill 2360-year-old the and near-surface to related and is valley surface Lillooet the valley of River Much Lillooet upper in deposits Proximal of valley the 1978). to (Read confined Creek was Devastation that 1947 in avalanche vrisadbi lwdpsto iia ieta has which that 800 of youngest size is the similar ages, of radiocarbon three deposit yielded flow debris a overlies ae ntedpstsaeletn ( extent areal deposit’s the on Based re Fgr ) ae o2170 to dated 1), (Figure Creek 10 GC33)ad210 and (GSC-3733) 97 odn19) n 2 a (2) and 1994); Creek Meager Jordan Decker 1932, of 1977, (Carter length River Lillooet full entered the and travelled that 1931 aig fe Fell after Ratings 3 8 7 6 5 10 6 Á Á Á Á ersfo htkle orpol ttemuhof mouth the at people four killed that flow debris w orypeevdlnsiedpst ( deposits landslide preserved poorly Two adld eoi ttemuho Devastation of mouth the at deposit landslide A 10 10 10 10 m 9 9 9 8 7 6 3 utdwsrao ne re Fgr 1) (Figure Creek Angel downstreamof just ) 70 3 vn gs(D P o feet eod(years) Record events of No. BP) (AD, ages Event ) 14 rB (GSC-4264). BP yr C 6 60 40 20 90480 :00Possible 1:2000 Likely 8000 1:1100 total 1:77; Historic 2170 77; total 2 historic; 1 4 7900 6250, 4400, 2600, 2170 1975; 1860, 5150 870, 370, 1998; 1931, 1986; 1984, 1972, 1947, 5,20 3,80 90 2240 1920, 800, 630, 210, 150, Á tal et 10 7 20) aig r ae ncnieaino paetana rqec,dsrbto fssetberc ye and types rock susceptible of distribution frequency, annual apparent of consideration on based are Ratings (2005). . m 9 3 9 50 h okaaacedebris avalanche rock The . 50 14 ÁÁ rB GC31) A (GSC-3811). BP yr C 14 rB (GSC-3509). BP yr C 9 10 60 6 B m 10 14 100 9 3 rB (GSC- BP yr C 5 .5km 0.75 Á ersfo in flow debris 50 10 , 6 itrc oa 7 10Hsoi :8 oa :6 Certain 1:860 total 1:38; Historic 5150 77; total 6 historic; 2 itrc 1ttl7;24 itrc11;ttl120Certain 1:200 total 1:19; Historic 2240 77; total 11 historic; 4 14 m CyrBP 3 2 )and tal et tal et rock 10 10 5 Á Georisk 7 . . hsi utb le hnte26 a rBP yr cal 3.5 about 2360 of the area avalanche total than rock a the have older of deposit remnants be Erosional must eruption. it is deposit, the avalanche overlies thus rock tephra River The Bridge Creek. but undated, Job of in within headwaters rocks Job units the fromvolcanic the maroon derivation indicate and of deposit Grey margins the 1). west (Figure and fan north Creek the at bluff river m h okaaacehdavlm f3.5 of volume a had avalanche rock the GC50) n yolsi lwo iia age similar of flow pyroclastic (2490 a and (GSC-5403); 1 lo ntevle eo.Tettlvlm of volume total 4.4 is The about be eruption below. to the estimated during valley produced material the pyroclastic outburst that an in lake causing flood a tuff dam, the impounded valley ash-flow overtopped and Lillooet The eventually River in 1). Lillooet thick (Figure blocked metres Falls of Keyhole tens below many tuff of ash-flow to or welded a up one metres left by that many followed flows pyroclastic was the more with blast buried The volcano blast tephra. pumiceous the initial The near 1). landscape (Figure near located Peak is eruption Plinth 2360-year-old the of vent The deposits Syn-eruptive 059 n 2210 and 209559) eetmt t rgnletn ohv en1 been have to extent original its estimate we aicro gso 2350 yielded fragments delta of Wood the ages of 1). beds radiocarbon (Figure forest tuff fromthe recovered ash-flow the impounded reservoir the by into built was Falls, Keyhole ot fSllCekgv naeo 2360 the of age kmupstreamof an gave 2.2 Creek Salal sand of mouth lacustrine in Wood uieu ersfo ae t2460 at dated flow debris pumiceous a Falls: kmdownstreamfromKeyhole 8 about exposed years. 100 reser- least at the for that persisted suggest voir ages These (Beta-209551). BP 2 suiga vrg hcns f35 of thickness average an Assuming . et ttemuho aa re,usra of upstream Creek, Salal of mouth the at delta A w ag adldsaercre ydeposits by recorded are landslides large Two 10 9 12,000 9 m 80 3 . 14 rB,GC53) twr (2002) Stewart GSC-5433). BP, yr C B :200Ntcredible Not 1:12,000 9 40 frequency Annual 14 rB (Beta-209558). BP yr C 9 10 60 8 m 14 3 rB (Beta- BP yr C Seat2002). (Stewart 9 60 10 9 likelihood 6 14 60 Future Á m CyrBP 0 m, 100 10 14 2 and , Cyr 8 10 51 to 1 7 Downloaded By: [Friele, Pierre] At: 20:18 22 February 2008 52 hs vnst e2 be by to transported events material these and of deposit volume avalanche total rock the pre-eruption estimated undated, an showing 1), 630 (Figure about Creek unit Job flow of mouth debris the a opposite Section 2. Figure erti eto a ile aiu limiting maximum a yielded has section this near yae f1820 bracketed of of is One ages 3) 1). (Figure by units (Figure upward-coarsening the Falls the at Keyhole canyon of the blocked upstreamend with that associated are landslides a deposits successive units backwater over be deposited upward-coarsening to were interpreted The which period. of sandy 600-year to eight silt units, upward-coarsening, 11 gravel least at it, above ttenrhatmri fteJbCekfan Creek Job unit flow the debris 2240 volcanic at of basal a dated margin exposes 1) northeast (Figure the at the complex eruption. following a valley Peak the of Plinth in creeks remnants accumulated that are Mosaic fill kmlong deposits valley and 6 The Salal 1). about between (Figure area kmwide an 1.5 over debris and occur and fluvial, deposits lacustrine, flow by underlain Terraces deposits Post-eruptive lava small landslide. A this eruption. after the vent fromthe of erupted phase and flow younger main stratigraphic is the it but than that dated, demonstrate relations directly avalanche geomorphic been rock km The 4 not 2002). about has (Stewart travelled valley and the wall, up down m valley 300 opposing ran valley, the Lillooet crossed it as fragmented c.4.4 (ca. 1980 0mihbn ln ilotRvr(iue3) (Figure River Lillooet along bank 20-mhigh A 9 50 10 14 rB Bt-078.Lnsiedebris Landslide (Beta-200718). BP yr C 7 m 9 3 elfotefako lnhPeak, Plinth of flank fromthe fell ) 9 60 40 14 10 14 rB Bt-077 and, (Beta-200717) BP yr C 8 rB Bt-079 and (Beta-200719) BP yr C m 14 3 er old. years C ae,alrerc mass rock large a Later, . .Friele P. tal. et aicro g f1860 of age radiocarbon niaeta h ersfo curd870 occurred peat flow overlying debris fromthe the and that indicate debris from the obtained within ages wood radiocarbon Ten peat. by capped is 4 1) by Figure in underlain 4 (site Creek Salal bottomupstreamof land- by blocked frequently upper slides. been the has period River post-eruptive Lillooet the in Thus, 200715). n hndbi lwui tKyoeFlsoverlies Falls Keyhole 1990 at at dated unit gravel flow pumiceous debris thin a and ersfo nt n tlattresignificant of three part least upper the (Friele at fill in valley the and units volcanic flow units three hyperconcentrated flow revealed has 32 debris valley Meager Lillooet fromMount in valley Drilling River Lillooet in deposits Distal eois eetmt httedbi lwhda had flow debris remnant the the 1 about that of of thickness estimate volume and we flow. extent debris deposits, the the of time on Valley the of Based before Lillooet or clasts upper at dammed that rip-up was indicating metre-size silt, contain lacustrine They 209553). oneto hc s630 is which 1). (Figure the of the ages, fan at radiocarbon youngest three Creek ha yielded 50 Job have about deposits the The of of area margin an northwest cover 2) (Figure flow ftedpstt e8 be to volume deposit the the estimated of (1994) Jordan (GSC-3215). BP ag c.20h)traeo h ilotvalley Lillooet the on terrace ha) 210 (ca. large A enn eoiso nte ag ocncdebris volcanic large another of deposits Remnant Á o ersfo eiet unit sediments flow debris mof 5 tal et 10 Á 10 6 9 05 Simpson 2005, . m 50 3 10 9 . 14 6 40 Á 9 rB (GSC-5278), BP yr C m 5kmdownstream 65 3 40 14 . rB (Beta- BP yr C 14 rB (Beta- BP yr C tal et 9 50 2006). . 14 Cyr Downloaded By: [Friele, Pierre] At: 20:18 22 February 2008 h etbd r nlsdi boxes. on in ages enclosed are Radiocarbon beds units. peat graded the the separate (arrows) thsyeddtordoabnae,teyugrof 6250 younger the is ages, radiocarbon Meager. which two kmfromMount yielded 32 least hole has at drill It is a deposits at flow mthick debris 8 three the of oldest The flows Debris 2200 about a of yielded that age diamicton flow radiocarbon debris sediment basal graded Creek a normally Job overlying eight units the of of sequence a downstreamend exposing the fan at Section 3. Figure stnaieycreae ihte6250 the with been correlated valley Lillooet has tentatively upper the is in age deposit However, avalanche volcano. this rock the large, of near identified deposit positively landslide proximal ile aicro g f2570 deposit of the age on directly radiocarbon lying a bed diamicton,yielded peat 4-mthick thin 1.5 to A full 2- valley. the across a extends is which It Meager. 32 Mount holes drill in found been 2004). Clague and the (Friele into the Creek Peak Meager with Pylon of Meager of valley the collapse kmfromMount in flank 32 unit 4400-year-old at flow hole debris middle drill the correlated 1). (2005) (Table hole drill the in deposit flow debris h oneto h he ersfo nt has units flow debris three the of youngest The Friele rates, aggradation average on Based 9 30 14 rB O-65) No (OS-36556). BP yr C Á 0kmdownstreamfrom 50 14 Á rB.Pa beds Peat BP. yr C mit fthe of kmwidth 2 9 40 14 year-old C 14 CyrBP tal et Georisk . eoiso eimsz adldsaeesl eroded easily are landslides contrast, medium-size In of estimated. deposits Evans reasonably and be and scars also (Guthrie may landscape whose 2007), the landslides, in persist large Similarly, deposits of flows. debris frequency small the magni- for of frequency over estimates and damage good tude yield tree Records may or centuries observations several analyses. historic incomplete, on based generally frequency-magnitude are (Moon limiting however, risk data, landslide Geologic quanti- assess to required tatively is model frequency-magnitude A model Frequency-magnitude about (Desloges of Lake Lillooet be in 1994). present to Gilbert is and estimated old, years and 900 strong reflector a by marked acoustic sediment, lacustrine of layer thick h imco aea g f2690 of age an gave from recovered diamicton fragment the wood a and (Beta-166059), sini ote80ya-l ersfo nupper in flow debris 870-year-old (Friele valley the Lillooet to it tentatively assign We volcano. kmdownstreamfromthe 47 Stasiuk flow by debris described ensuing syn- Falls (1996). the and Keyhole of flood deposits below distal outburst down- the eruptive km likely 65 are sediments sediments (Friele deltaic volcano in streamfromthe present is wash overlies 42 turn Similar pumiceous cores Meager. drill in downstreamfromMount in which unit flow bed, debris peat uppermost the thin a caps at mthick flow 2004). Clague avalanche/debris and (Friele of Peak rock 1985) Pylon Scott 4400-year-old and (Pierson the faces runout flow debris yecnetae lwui pt tikwas kmdownstreamfromMount (Friele mthick 42 Meager 6 cores to two in up found unit flow hyperconcentrated A flows Hyperconcentrated Creek. Salal kmupstreamof 3.3 site a at (GSC-6696) 4550 yn etta aea g f2650 of age an under- gave yet diamicton that not include peat has may lying flow it but debris identified, the explosions been of deposit minor proximal likely or The although activity and as magmatic (Simpson years, by hundred to eruption few related Meager a Mount as debris the much the that preceded suggest ages flow two The (Beta-166057). abnae f3230 of ages carbon B tik speeti oecletda site a at collected core in present is mthick, 1 hr yecnetae lwui,wihis which unit, flow hyperconcentrated third A 3 to up unit flow hyperconcentrated pumiceous A 9 90 14 tal et rB GC64) h ntmyb the be may unit The (GSC-6645). BP yr C 06,i sntsrcl syn-eruptive. strictly not is it 2006), . tal et 9 05.I sbaktdb radio- by bracketed is It 2005). . 70 tal et 14 rB Bt-601 and (Beta-166051) BP yr C 05.A anomalously An 2005). . tal et 9 9 05.These 2005). . 50 60 tal et 14 14 CyrBP CyrBP 2005). . Á 7km 47 tal et 53 . Downloaded By: [Friele, Pierre] At: 20:18 22 February 2008 54 ffn ntesuyae niae ersflows debris indicates area on study m bounds the in the assessment fans of Detailed of landslides 4). estimate (Figure order frequencies first actual non-eruptive the a as of prehistoric, 2) frequencies (Table apparent and the use historic we assessment, risk judgment. expert involve frequency-mag- inevitably must of are plots use nitude events and past under- formulation of commonly incomplete, is records frequency As their estimated. and buried, or ob h otlkl netit onsfrteF-M Canada. the in region for prone massif bounds landslide Meager most that uncertainty the indicates is yield likely annual judge total most The we model. what the represents be band grey consideration to class the In censoring, bound). for data (lower of data bars) geologic and (black bound) limits uncertainty 4 mas- for Apparent Meager at diagram sif. landslides volcanic frequency-magnitude triggered non-eruption Composite 4. Figure Jra 94 ao 96.Fu 10 Four 1996). Jakob 1994; (Jordan ete ra.Cas1 ersfosaeexcluded, are flows debris 10 Class distal, areas. reach 9 events and settled size 8 these class only to because limited F-M landslides, is the assessment judge for risk bounds we Considering Our uncertainty model. likely what 4). most represents the be (Figure band to grey reasonable the that is censoring, suggesting model categories, our intermediate-size bars uncertainty the smallest the the of within lies connecting categories line largest best-fit and A years. 4 10,000 that period. assume 8000-year an We in documented been have events Á 3 ersflw r eie rmh itrcrcr (upper record historic fromthe derived are flows debris 8 ihteeise nmn n o h ups of purpose the for and mind in issues these With nvlm aertr nevl f1 of intervals return have volume in Á vnsmyhv curdin occurred have may events 6 8 Á 10 9 m Á 3 0years 10 cas9) (class B .Friele P. 10 5 tal. et iectgre,tettlana rdcino debris of m production 231,000 annual is total the categories, rate size process landslide volcanic (Moon the provides 4 Figure considered Meager. not Mount are at volume possible this of landslides because m (Whitfield century intense this more during with later winters rainfall wetter warmer, region this suggest for scenarios change climate Furthermore, faot7 km 76 about of 00m 3000 h rqec flnsie nteregion. the in winter landslides increase of will of frequency 2100 the by intensity Columbia British and southwestern 3 that amount a argue and the precipitation (2007) in Lambert and increases Jakob 2003). 2002, a ensuidi eala on egrb Holm by Meager Mount alpine al at et detail phenomenon of in The studied retreat 1994). been and has Clague thinning and the (Evans to during glaciers gla- due increased in century failure terrain past slope mountainous catastrophic cierised for potential The instability Potential most the New Canada. is in massif of Meager mountain Mount landslide-prone Alps to that assessment Southern comparable Read’s is the (Hovius It in California Zealand in 1987). rates higher basins Madej times denudation forested 1982, three for and (Kelsey average 2004) (Martin the Evans than Columbia and British hyper-maritime Guthrie for of approximately average is the areas rate than This higher times massif. 50 the of area entire 3 ,w a xettefiuert nteftr ilbe will future the in rate failure the expect can we ), cata- to precursor a is deformation detachment. deep- of strophic that of type implying history movement, this previous slope a gravitational all with seated and slope areas trimlines rock in glacial catastrophic glacial occurred above nine just by occurred of failures that out debuttressed failures, Eight slopes then erosion. and oversteepened catastrophic deformation, were recent slope glacial gravitational between near avalanches observed rock rock and trimlines active slides, contain features, rock fall, and movement slope oversteepening show deep-seated volcanics erosional Quaternary weak significant trimlines. the in Age and Ice carved Little type Valleys retreat below scour rock glacial glacial of to extent to according response appreciably varies landslide bedrock The nerto fteae eo h etftln in line best-fit the below area the of Integration o ml n nemdaesz adlds( landslides intermediate-size and small For 20,p 0) h concluded: who 201), p. (2004, . 3 tal et a ... 1 05 o MC umdars all across Summed MMVC. for 2005) . 3 km a infcn pta soito a also was association spatial Significant 2 1 hstedndto aei about is rate denudation the thus , tal et h ocnccmlxhsa area an has complex volcanic The . 2 o 3ma ,or3mm 8 iei entmeauein temperature mean in rise C 97.Oraayi confirms analysis Our 1997). . 1 vrgdoe the over averaged tal et 2002, . tal et B 10 7 . Downloaded By: [Friele, Pierre] At: 20:18 22 February 2008 E V P P iia o rgetrta,ta ftercn past. recent the of 10 that than larger than, landslides greater However, or to, similar P cu,temxmmvlm ftelnsiewould 10 landslide of order the the of of volume be maximum the occur, ieyfrlse,prilclass nsmay the summary, In (10 collapses. large for partial potential lesser, for likely oso ie h aibe sdi uniaierisk quantitative in used of variables assessment are: The Fell an analysis life. to follows of analysis valley our loss restrict Lillooet We of (2005). residents risk landslide characterise to to use we methodology The Methodology assessment risk shallow Quantitative of sign a 5), adjustments. crustal associated (Figure and activity massif beneath magmatic earthquakes Meager risk small This the frequent past. the by in reinforced that to is similar remain to likely is 98 stntmstesz fte17 okavalanche rock 1975 the of size the (1.2 (Read times area ten source is potential 1978) The 2002). Kooj Lambert der and (van measurements interferometric SAR 1 of on by flows. rates settlement underlain and shows area is rocks This that pyroclastic Creek altered Devastation basin, the hydrothermally on of Creek kilometres square side particular Job several east of Of the area Meager. an Mount of is concern Pylon of Creek, slope flank and east the Devastation edifice Devastator including the of The future and of side of Peak, flanks east the sites at the including elsewhere likely are and most basins collapse these The in MMVC. unstable edifice exist generate Job of still to masses and relief collapse sufficient Large Devastation with rock 1). Angel, volcanic (Figure the basins in Creek rocks hydrothermally are altered MMVC at collapses volcanoes edifice major at rocks collapse edifice altered past. (Finn for the potential hydrothermally of the those and create by reduced lithified been Poorly events has one such future for the and potential in 2002), the whether (Siebert question debris might unstable of volumes T:S S:H LOL lmn fcnen nti ae,tenme of number risk. the at paper, potentially location; this lives that in at concern; hazard of function the element a of is intensity risk which the at hazard, of element the the by should affected life be of loss of likelihood Meager Lake; Mount Lillooet area, between and hazard valley the Lillooet occupies as risk defined at element percentage the the time i.e. of impact; of probability temporal the reach risk; will at individual; event element an the for that life probability of spatial loss of probability annual 10 tal et 7 m 01 ibr 02.Tesucso the of sources The 2002). Siebert 2001, . 3 ,tu fctsrpi alr eeto were failure catastrophic if thus ), 8 7 m Á 10 3 oue f10 of Volumes . 8 m 3 adldsa MMVC at landslides ) 7 Á m mya based cm/year 2 3 eoehuge remove 6 Á 10 8 m tal et 3 are Georisk . sdfnd codn oFell to according defined, is ( osdrto.O an On consideration. oso iet nidvda ( of individual risk an to Annual life threshold. of risk homemaker. loss tolerable or socially or some farmer to accepted compared a generally is Pemberton, rural risk a of Individual as in much or, for invalid such home an be area to could the close person or This at to time. closest the is living who related someone hazard typically the is to risk, at customarily most groups. individuals person for or to individuals for Risk quantified be can Risk fLloe aly u easm htteei a is there ( that impact assume of we chance but remote areas valley, settled impact Lillooet directly of to unlikely is flow debris pta rbblt fipc (P impact of probability Spatial 0.0006. and 0.0004 respectively, correspond- are, the values events, ing 9 class for respectively; 0.005, atclrhzr rsieo aad gis the against hazards an of a on fatalities from suite of deaths number or expected more or hazard one of particular of number plotting frequency large by annual estimated a is the of risk Group death 2006). simultaneous (Ale than people life the of of loss is individual it of tolerant more is Society ersfos(lse 8 (classes flows nominal Jakob debris a from (Simpson is taken ing (Friele class 3), evidence Field whereas (Table (2005). event, category an ‘event magnitude of distinguish the to refers we volume magnitude class’; discussion, ‘event from following magnitude’ the In as: niae hta10 a that indicates eut niaeta nteaeaecs h 10 the case average LA- the the in that using indicate estimated results Iverson were by developed 6) model HARZ Figure 3; (Simpson (Table volume of different distances of travel flows and debris areas inundation of Modeling and rbblt ftehzr (P hazard the of Probability Parameterisation scenario. hazard separate each a hazard, forms same which the of accumu- of from paper, classes risk this magnitude the in different as example, or, for hazards fromdifferent risks, lated partial of sum ilotvle Tbe3 iue6,tu h risk the 8 class thus For only. 6), classes event Figure events, these to 3; refers (Table analysis valley Lillooet E n hi unrblt ( vulnerability their and ) N stepouto h ubro lmnsa risk at elements of number the of product the is P H(min) P LOL F tal et and P P 06 hwta nytelargest the only that show 2006) . 8 H H m P H(max) 3 F/N P P ersfo ol utreach just would flow debris Á S S )rahstldaesof areas settled reach 9) : : H H lt h oa iki the is risk total the plot, P H V tal et r ae s001and 0.001 as taken are P ) LOL tal et P P otehzr under hazard the to ) S:H T S:H T : : S 20) as: (2005), . a eformulated be can ) S 05 n model- and 2005) . ; ) F/N tal et .1.Modeling 0.01). V : lt where plot, 19) The (1998). . tal et 2006) . 7 m ( ( 55 1 2 F 3 ) ) Downloaded By: [Friele, Pierre] At: 20:18 22 February 2008 56 eprlpoaiiyo mat(P impact of probability Temporal 4). (Table flows debris 9 class for 1.0 to 0.1 and n oksho oal,ad5%cmuediyout daily commute live 50% and 50% locally, Lacking assume work/school workers, and we Whistler. statistics, to sector occupational daily service detailed commute whom and farmers, of by residents, some occupied nation flows areas debris first 9 reaching Class farther, 0.8. is travel individual average the for low as ( represent impact we Centre). of Geoscience Pacific which probability Canada, Resources Meadows, (Natural 2005 and Pemberton 1970 between Meager Mount at activity Seismic 5. Figure ntecs fcas8dbi lw,tetemporal the flows, debris 8 class of ( probability case the In lwwudrahLloe ae( Lake Lillooet reach would flow ihtecide tsho ih or e day, per children, hours two eight risk. school and at at adults most children two person the of the with family for a 0.9 of Assuming value a assigned ils hl hlrncmuediyt colin school to daily Thus, commute or home Pemberton. children the in while time their fields, spend majority residents the adult agricultural; the is of area This area. impacted P S:H agsfo00 o01frcas8dbi flows debris 8 class for 0.1 to from0.01 ranges P T:S shg o h naie ato the of part inhabited the for high is ) P T:S P o ls ersfosis flows debris 8 class for S:H .) 10 A 0.1). T:S P S:H ) 9 .) Thus, 1.0). m 3 debris .Friele P. P T:S tal. et ftevle n r bet1 or e day. per hours 12 absent are and valley the of hra e oe ofr ote20ya flood 200-year the 1 is to which conform floodplain, level, homes the on new directly the whereas built in homes typically were Older valley volcano. Meager fromMount 2 sheets debris wide impact withstand lead to could that death. building to damage a structural of incurring without ability impact, of the intensity the and of building, poorly location a are the within example uncertainty, that individuals for parameters of variable, highly by degree or affected known large is it a because has estimate Any flood. vulnerability debris like- impacted or of be the flow site debris or as a building by vulnerability directly a should define death of we lihood study, this For Vulnerability 0.7 0.9 is be value to average assumed the 0.5, is 4). is valley (Table commuters the for in and staying those rligi ilotvle a ouetdvalley- documented has valley Lillooet in Drilling Á aoetefodli.Acas8 class A floodplain. the mabove 2 Á tik 32 mthick, 8 Á 5kmdownstream 55 P T:S for Downloaded By: [Friele, Pierre] At: 20:18 22 February 2008 ocr nti ae a aevlcte f10 of velocities have can paper this in concern (Major on Helens deposits snowmelt-generated St. avalanche to Mount for rock kilometres liquefied inferred up and of flows been velocities, debris tens have higher many m/s, m/s Much 12 4 source. to fromtheir up of velocities and old both impact homes. probably new would flow debris 9 or eiiglwraduprbounds, upper and by estimate lower vulnerability events. defining the 9 into class built for is certain more Uncertainty is in death ground Some but higher valley, debris. reaching the climbing or by in trees flow standing debris buried large homes 8 into class be of a their survive or might occupants outside people drown debris; caught likely watery people would with and fill buildings or collapse flow. the be by uprooted would transported trees of forces and thousands impact of hundreds The by 1.2 valley. increased the of in buildings gravity 3 flow of specific velocities debris a or hyperconcentrated 3 with A and area Pemberton. Meadows at Pemberton upper the in loigfrsm osblt fsurvival, of possibility some for Allowing 10 nnae ssalrta utdfrtersetv ievlaosi ao 20)det h aea osritadteLloe aea the at Lake Lillooet the and event. constraint single lateral a the in to inundated due be (2005) can Jakob that in area volcanoes maximum size the respective define the which for quoted mouth, than smaller is inundated lwcasVlm (m Volume valley. class River flow Lillooet along flow debris Debris volcanic large of Consequences 3. Table 2 1 fe ao 20) oeta h nnainae sdrvdeprclyfo Iverson Simpson from after empirically results derived Modeling is area inundation the that Note (2005). Jakob After 810 910 710610 yecnetae lw rmocne have fromvolcanoes flows Hyperconcentrated ne h cnro ulnd ulig would buildings outlined, scenarios the Under Á 5ms ol eto otresidential most destroy would m/s, 15 8 7 6 5 Á Á Á Á 10 10 10 10 10 9 9 8 7 6 3 ) discharge 3 3 3 3 3 tal et tal et 10 10 10 10 10 20) ae nIverson on based (2006), . Peak 05.Teeet of events The 2005). . 7 6 5 4 3 Á Á Á Á Á 3 3 3 3 3 1 Á (m .,taeln at travelling 2.3, 10 10 10 10 10 V 3 /s) 8 7 6 5 4 min and 3 3 3 2 Inundation area Á V 10 Á 5m/s 15 10 10 10 min 6m/s V 9 Á 8 7 6 1 max Á Á Á 3 3 (m 3 3 3 tal et is Georisk . 2 10 10 oeta consequences Potential ) 10 10 10 (1998). . 10 10 9 8 7 sue ob . o ls ersfo n . for 0.9 and flow. flow debris debris 8 9 class class a a for 0.5 be to assumed aindniyo 2 persons/km 125 popu- of (average density respectively lation residents, and 1000 and Pemberton 3800 55 2006). Currie, Mount communication, personal eeomn n 10 and development o e eeomn (Fell development new for iklvlt e10 be tolerable to this level defined have risk Australia, England in and Governments Kong, 4). Hong (Table year per deaths ino bu 0 epe(vrg ouaindensity population popula- (average persons/km people 5 a 200 has about and of tion agricultural primarily is Pem- volcano, 32 densities. population Meadows, into different berton divided with be can zones valley two Lillooet of area settled The value risk at Element h ag fana adld ikt nindividual 5 an is to valley risk Lillooet landslide in annual residing of risk range at The most individuals to Risk evaluation Risk 05.FrLloe aly niiulrs su o5.4 to up is risk individual valley, Lillooet For 2005). ontemrmh volcano. downstreamfromthe ersfosmyrahusra iiso settlement. of limits upstream reach may indicates flows Modeling debris flows. hyperconcentrated outburst and destructive for floods potential the with rivers damlarge rmon egrt ilotLake. Lillooet to Meager 20 fromMount travelling entire valley, the River inundate Lillooet would flows debris indicates Modeling ouet eoiso he ersfo eois32 deposits flow debris three of deposits documents atadcmlt etuto vrhnrd fkm of hundreds over destruction complete and Vast km 100 to up valleys downstream. large km inundate 15 Could River surges Lillooet muddy reached caused flow and debris Devastation 1931 km The 5 confluence. to river up Meager-Lillooet travel downstreamfromthe flows debris flows. indicates for hyperconcentrated Modeling potential and km the floods of with outburst tens rivers destructive several damlarge to and up size, fans in or valleys. valleys Lillooet obliterate upper Could are and events Meager km indicates to of Modeling tens confined damrivers. several and to size up fans in or valleys obliterate Could okonevents. known No 2 Sums-ilotRgoa District, Regional (Squamish-Lillooet ) tal et 19) tLloe ie aly h area the valley, River Lillooet At (1998). . Á 5kdwsra,hv about have kmdownstream, 75 4 Á V nulpoaiiyfrexisting for probability annual 5 5kmdownstreamfromthe 55 max nulpoaiiyo death of probability annual sasge au f1.0. of value a assigned is tal et Á 5kmdownstream 75 2 05 Leroi 2005, . 10 ). 2 1 il evidence Field 6 o5.0 to 2 nsz,and size, in 2 Á 0km 50 tal et 10 2 . 2 57 2 2 4 2 . Downloaded By: [Friele, Pierre] At: 20:18 22 February 2008 58 eiet.Pplto siae rvddb Squamish- by provided District. Regional estimates Lillooet Population residents. with 65 fringe and immediate residents; and 3800 Pemberton of municipality km, boundaries: neighborhood demarcate 32 Distances delta. the cetnei utai,teUie igo,and (Fell Kingdom, Canada gaining United in are the recently that 7). Australia, (Figure criteria in graph evaluation F-N acceptance shows the on 7 pairs debris Figure f-N each for as quantified class was flow 4) (Table risk Societal groups to Risk levels. acceptable than estimated higher have times 36 we ade- to values without up risk are thus, the and mitigation, higher, quate one magnitude is risk of acceptable reduc- order the development, risk reasonably new additional For as tion. low encouraging ‘as while of apply, practical’, principle The not law. the common does encodes Anglo-Saxon latter practical’ to reasonably contrary is as which Netherlands low principle the ‘as the than however, of in Netherlands, higher the times individuals In 2005). 54 (Ale for to jurisdic- up risk is the acceptable and for above, levels cited acceptable tions than higher times 10 The (Iverson Simpson al software of et LAHARZ (after with flows out carried areas was debris Modeling source from modelled volcanic different flows of four fromdebris averaged distances sizes, different Travel 6. Figure aadaewti h ag htsceycntolerate; can reduced; society that be range the within possible, are hazard acceptable’ wherever ‘broadly should, as hazard low ‘as practical’ mitigation; require reasonably zones: and four society by into ceptable subdivided is plot ‘unacceptable’ F-N The 2007). Á 5k,PmetnMaoswt 0 eiet;55 residents; 200 with Meadows Pemberton km, 55 98 n sbsdo lyrc,vlai ersflows. debris volcanic clay-rich, on based is and 1998) . 9 m 3 vn ece ilotLk L) emntn at terminating (LL), Lake Lillooet reaches event Á ik r eeal osdrdunac- considered generally are risks Á 5k,odMutCri ih1000 with Currie Mount old km, 75 Á Á h nrmna ik rma from risks incremental the nrmna ik rma from risks incremental tal et 05 Porter 2005; . tal et 2006). . tal et .Friele P. Á 65 . tal. et n itnesrtn region’ scrutiny ‘intense and rcie uha asft ACL) flood installations (ANCOLD), hazardous of damsafety geoscience construction establi- and and as hazards, engineering been such of have fields practice, other risk for acceptable shed of Definitions standards acceptance risk Global was and zone runout the (Porter damaged of partially edge house only a the their at because is located injury and was exception severe couple a escaped An where baby Vancouver, their fatal. North in generally flow debris is by British impact flows of in direct that flows debris Experience shown debris has structures. of however, effects Columbia, on the sizes for due data different estimate to of variable scarcity difficult to most the Vulnerability perhaps time. is with other change all and factors homes only demographic of querying occupancy would because by temporary improvement Temporal be the improved estimates. although be households, runout could of probabilities limits and/or models confidence different dating apply More could quantifiable. which readily analyses on results, not to detailed is modeling that deposits, error on ability some reliance and have flow an on spatial and debris on control, of map depend accuracy accurately and probabilities precision and temporal hazard The increase Discovery only risk. census. would good is events a it additional developed and of a 2007), have Evans we and persist likely (Guthrie deposits large, landscape and the are scars in their these and as events reasonable, formative appears flows debris 4). to (Table are risk groups minimum for and parameter, they individuals of each both for estimation herein values maximum judgemental and and in by quantified assessments, captured precisely risk be can landslide uncertainties all Not uncertainties General Discussion be can risk re- level. where ‘acceptable’ by the areas to encouraged to reduced be Simi- development plot. should stricting F-N avoidance as the risk low of ‘as larly, region measures the to practical’ risk Mitigation reasonably reduce aimto is standards. therefore valley should based international Lillooet flows debris in 9 and on groups 8 class to both The for risk 7. be unacceptable Figure that on class point shows each a than plot for rather zone risk a as the plotted that require consequence required. is consideration careful but low is life of loss netit ntehzr ee o ls n 9 and 8 class for level hazard the in Uncertainty and hazards both in uncertainties study, this In Á h oeta o large for potential the tal et 2007). . Downloaded By: [Friele, Pierre] At: 20:18 22 February 2008
Table 4. Individual and group risk matrices for residents of Lillooet River valley. See text for details.
Individual most at risk
3 Volume (m )PH(Min) PH (max) PS:H (min) PS:H (max) PT:S Vmin Vmax ERL(min) RL(max) Factor* (min) Factor (max) 107 to 108 0.001 0.005 0.01 0.1 0.9 0.5 1 1 0.000005 0.0005 0.05 4.5 108 to 109 0.0004 0.0006 0.1 1 0.9 0.9 1 1 0.000032 0.0005 0.32 5.4
Group risk F PH PS:H PT:S N V E
3 Volume (m )PH (min) PH (max) PS:H (min) PS:H (max) PT:S F (min) F (max) Vmin Vmax Emin Emax N(min) N(max) 107 to 108 0.001 0.005 0.01 0.1 0.8 0.000008 0.000400 0.5 1 20 200 10 200 108 to 109 0.0004 0.0006 0.1 1 0.7 0.000028 0.000420 0.9 1 200 5000 180 5000 min max
F, N 100 0.000041 0.00127 F, N 101 0.000036 0.000820 F, N 102 0.000028 0.000420
‘‘Factor’’ is the ratio of the minimum and maximum risk to the risk acceptance criterion of 10 4 for existing development. If the number exceeds 1.0, the risk is deemed unacceptable. Accordingly,
only the upper range indicates that risk to individuals for class 8 and 9 debris flows is unacceptable. Georisk HEciei) h attrelnssprt h unaccep- the Britain separate zone. ALARP lines and fromthe three zone last table Denmark, The criteria). criteria), (HSE (VROM text. the in Netherlands discussed as calculations, incor- F/N risk uncertainties the the are into reflecting results porated circles The shaded practical’. massif. reasonably as Meager as plotted Mount low fromthe ‘as flows is debris ALARP 9 and 8 class eeoe ol,lreybcuers tolerance risk because largely world, developed warranted. thresh- appears environ- risk hazards natural the of for and application olds safety and human establishment to societal ment, risk decreasing of With rare. tolerance residen- are to developments applications tial and natu- hazards, for occurring thresholds rally risk countries few acceptable a established only have However, profit. clients to a their earning for risk while coverage calculate insurance adequate routinely provide (Kendall underwriters plants power Insurance nuclear as such 7. Figure ikacpac hehlsdfe hogotthe throughout differ thresholds acceptance Risk hehl ie r hw o ogKn,the Kong, Hong for shown are lines threshold F/N ltfrscea iki ilotvle for valley Lillooet in risk societal for plot tal et 1977). . 59 Downloaded By: [Friele, Pierre] At: 20:18 22 February 2008 60 idatlrbers ii o oso ieo 10 of life of loss for limit risk only tolerable a fied acceptable be Safety and would (Heath 1989). standard Executive flows British the debris to for according risk 8 of The residents flows. debris by class 9 faced western fromclass Hong risk valley the and Lillooet all by Australia exceeded as are in well Kong, as thresholds countries, Environment of European orders However, by and differs 2003) magnitude. Planning (Suddle Britain Use and 1988), of Land (Ministry Netherlands Housing, the risk example, Denmark, For in country. tolerance to fromcountry differs ikb e ta nulpoaiiyo 10 of probability annual an at set individual be for BGC thresholds risk by the recommendation that British (2006) a in Engineering case, management that risk In hazard landslide Columbia. in both precedent a includes con- 3). (Table which a consequences on and risk, 2) based (Table been of Deve- not 1993). sideration have Cave decisions 1973; lopment recognised (Berger only with frequency considering by hazard areas made been in have hazards geologic decisions the land-use In- or specifically. stead, general District in Regional Columbia yet Squamish-Lillooet British not for have defined landslides been for criteria Columbia risk British in Quantitative policies risk and hazard Landslide 2005). (Ale situations nufreitn iutosad10 and situations existing annumfor or slopes existing 10 on and risk developments at most individuals for year ehrad,teacpal iklmti 10 is limit risk acceptable the Netherlands, iiso et f10 of death docu- Risk’ of a of lities in ‘Tolerability risk titled acceptable ment defined (1988) slopes Executive natural interim on Administrative landslides an for (Leroi limits on Special same adopted, the Kong basis, has Government Hong Regional The ments. xsigdvlpetad10 and development existing ofodn,eoin adsi raaace.I the If avalanche’. or slip subject land be erosion, to the expected flooding, be considers to reasonably officer or approving subject, the land approve Land ‘if to The refusing subdivision for a Charter. provisions Govern- Community contains Local Act the Title the and Act, Act, Title ment Land the by governed as deaths of number 7. the Figure and in deaths between of relation frequency fromthe the quantified of is District groups to the risk by (Porter interimbasis Vancouver an North on adopted was h utainGoehnc oit a speci- has Society Geomechanics Australian The eetaftllnsiei ot acue set Vancouver North in landslide fatal a recent A eieta eeomn nBiihClmi is Columbia British in development Residential tal et 05.BiansHat n Safety and Health Britain’s 2005). . 4 5 e nufrnwdevelop- new annumfor per n nuyo 10 of injury and tal et 07.Scea ikor risk Societal 2007). . 5 o e development new for Á nulprobabi- annual 6 5 o new for nthe In . 5 4 4 .Friele P. per per for tal. et h otx fteLloe ie valley: River Lillooet the in of on apropos context 231) particularly the seems p. failure (2002, edifice Siebert volcanic of comment following The Conclusions to standards those risk. jurisdic- used landslide or successfully manage acceptance have countries risk that those tions with in risk developed on standards existing based ‘safe’ of define perform comparisons and can analyses practitioners risk texts, quantitative reluctant legal their are tolerance replace amend makers risk to law quantitative to if of set Alternatively, changed a standards. by be ‘safe’ word legislation the We that interpretation. personal encourage to open is documents and legal defined not most interpretation. is to and ‘safe’ open Third, therefore word assessment. the such importantly, be a may for training their thus inadequate claimexpe- though even can engineer’, expertise, geoscientists or rience or ‘geotechnical engineers official of a no variety is of there by Second, report designation needed. a is that professional recognise to a skilled needs sufficiently officer be approving to the First, provisions. these of safely’. occur indicates may professional of development qualified assessment that suitably an a by where is land and the there available, where land guidelines], other those no [of 3.3 Section alluvial granted, in for be fan established may as requirements develop although prone standard to with areas ‘consent that, in flows, debris discouraged states to be Bylaw should Exemptions) Local Floodplain development or The 910, the 56). (Section Variances Local and (Section Act 920) the Charter Government and land. Community in 919.1 the BC (Section appear of Act statements Government use vague intended’. restricting more Similarly use or that one covenants the stipulate for certify also registered safely may to office used approving be The required may geo- land is in profes- ‘the experienced a engineering by geoscientist report technical or a engineer doubt, in sional is officer approving oiia n cnmcpolm,ee o shorter for severe produce even can problems, mitigation efforts. termhazard eruption) economic an and (or of eruption political absence given a the during in occur whether will anticipating failure of precludes edifice difficulty The potentially areas. effectively of occupancy affected restricts at often that avalanches zoning hazard of volcanoes risk. rate within avalanches recurrence individual population low debris dense the of volcanic However, areas of large mobility places high The h alr odfn sfl’lae l h quoted the all leaves ‘safely’ define to failure The efficacy the on doubt cast that arise issues Three Downloaded By: [Friele, Pierre] At: 20:18 22 February 2008 ffodli osrcinlvl n ye,t a to types, and system. warning levels flow construction debris specification that floodplain and valley, spectrumof covenants of the a in restrictive development include from regulate stake- could ranging all risk to policy measures, meaningful acceptable The a is holders. increase, that develop to policy should continues management As valley agencies reserve). the (re- these native of Affairs Currie population Mount Northern the the the and and for Indian Pemberton, sponsible Regional of of Squamish-Lillooet Municipality Department the the with in rests District, risk public makers and hazards and policy enhance natural Pemberton, of Currie to Meadows, Mount informing Pemberton used for of responsibility residents base it Nevertheless, because tax development services. may the promoting they in increases stake Further, a properly strategies. have implement to to mitigation and resources risk, effective and and hazards existing lack expertise evaluate commonly technical agencies the These to district hazard regional municipalities. responsibility acceptable to and responsibility of the this public levels transferring provincial by of enforce the BC and itself the determine consult 2004, freed In may hazard. government the and by in issues affected assessments legal and social, their political, into regulators consider input and also society, one will Owners, only process. decision is the assessment risk quantitative concern. are of failure, although catastrophic also of which precursor a 1996), necessarily deep-seated Evans not of and slopes signs (Bovis show steep movement floor some valley the addition, that caused bordering and In floods levees, Lillooet of damage. and history in significant banks long river hazards a overtopped several has have of valley The one flows, valley. only debris on are only focuses which it is because analysis, risk valley Lillooet in groups flows unacceptable. and individuals debris esti- to we risk fromvolcanic existing analyses, the the and that in mate reason- included developed with uncertainties and internationally standards, able acceptance Using risk applied people. thousands possibly or the of hundreds of by kill preceded much would not destroy if warnings, and, would valley Lillooet that in gen- flow development has ex- would debris that probably means a largest Holocene erate the no the as by during large rock occurred as is of landslide landslides A supply hausted. large of the for history and available well-documented volcanism, and a instability has Meager Mount Fell comprehensive a be to intended not is paper Our tal et 20)hv one u hta that out pointed have (2005) . Georisk taeyadlandfoteDsrc fNorth of District fromthe experience. similar learned Vancouver’s a adopted and governments desirable strategy and be districts tolerance would North It other risk Council. if of recommend District the to District mem- to created criteria community the been of at has force bers task way a under where Vancouver, is process Such policy. a management a risk implement flow scientists this and debris establish reasonable For between no to hazard. dialogue bodies took government identified a and they an encourage of we because face reason, arise, the that held in action be losses In could for function’. authorities liable regulatory government the words, reasonable of other exercise performance to arises between in care the care of proximity then duty plaintiff, a sufficient complai- say the courts is and nature authority there the government the and of is of, harm those it ned cause of legislation, might performance by negligent powers the mandated that or foreseeable power firm the discretionary of their exercise is law of the exercise whether the the powers, in regulatory Quoting ‘If (2007): Urquhart duties. per- Singleton for negligently regulatory framework for a formed Supreme liability established The government has valley. evaluating Canada Lillooet of in Court risks now-quantified the and ignore hazards they if liability significant RainierPilot/Pilot_highlight.html). (http://volcanoes.usgs.gov/About/ Highlights/ Rainer A detected. Mount operational is is at flows flow debris detecting debris for automatic system significant similar an a trigger when and notice data incoming the would the software to Special analyse adjacent hall. fire possibly staffed Pemberton, continuously manage- in emergency centre an ment at stations base- located duplicate all computers to radio station from by transmitted Data be then computer. vibrations would base-station radioed When are a data to the vibrations. and thresholds, frequency, programmed ground exceed amplitude, of the duration data records a and that geophone a logger of consist the Each would River. station below Lillooet AFM and floodplain Creek (AFM) River Meager of monitor Lillooet confluence the at flow on acoustic landslides stations and large systemcould Meager record warning severe Mount to A seismographs rainfall, hazards, avalanches. include natural heavy and other tsunami, British winds, of in include variety used including a widely for are Columbia manage- systems risk Warning and ment. requirement long-termhazard minimum responsible the be for may system mitigation. warning active to A itself lend not does valley Lillooet prvn uhrte a xoetesle to themselves expose may authorities Approving in flow debris possible largest the Unfortunately, 61 Downloaded By: [Friele, Pierre] At: 20:18 22 February 2008 62 vn,SG,18.Arc vlnh rmh ekof peak fromthe avalanche rock A 1987. S.G., Evans, and source Sediment 1994. 1977. R., Gilbert, M., and J.R. Ronayne, Desloges, and M., Fougberg, F., Decker, 1983. S.A.S., Croft, lge .. vn,SG,Rmtn .. n Woods- and V.N., Rampton, S.G., Evans, J.J., Clague, devel- for thresholds acceptability Hazard 1993. P., Cave, onr n naoyosreviewer. anonymous Christophe an by and review Bonnard fromcareful McNeely benefited Laboratory). Roger has Radiocarbon paper by Canada The of provided of Sonic Survey were Many by (Geological Ltd. ages out Services radiocarbon carried Drilling was the Geotech Drilling clearing and for rigs. Ltd. and drill Drilling properties the their Beks for on John drill snow Vanloon, and to Menzel, us Niel allowing Bob Vanloon, for Ronayne, John Jack Miller, Black, Bruce Stephen thank We Acknowledgements atr .. 92 xlrto nteLloe River Lillooet the in Exploration 1932. N.M., Carter, deformations Extensive 1996. S.G., Evans, and M.J. Bovis, manage- risk landslide Berkley 2006. for Engineering, reasons BGC Planner: Mr. and law The 1973. T., Berger, of comparison a acceptable: or Tolerable 2005. B.J.M., Ale, References oi,M n ao,M,20.TeJl 0 98debris 1998 30, July The 2000. M., Jakob, and M. Bovis, Canada Columbia. British Meager, Mount Lake, Lillooet of Columbia. record British sediments: sedimentary lake postglacial glacial the from inferences hydroclimatic settlement Ltd. a Printing of Hemlock history the Pemberton: Columbia. British of sity Columbia British Valley, Creek 1179. ht ie n rdeRvrtprs etr Ca- western the tephras, for River estimates Bridge nada. age and Improved River White 1995. G.J., worth, Branch, 1992-15. Co- Survey File British Geological Open Columbia government, British local lumbia. by approvals opment Watershed. Sciences Earth of Columbia. Mount Journal British dian Creek, Complex, Capricorn Volcanic damat Meager landslide and flow 163 Canada. Columbia, southwest Mountains, North British Coast southern in of slopes rock of District the by for prepared Canada. BC, Inc. Report Vancouver, assessment. Engineering risk BGC 1 phase ment: 1973. August 23 Action X4042, Columbia, No. British the of Court Supreme Kingdomand judgment. United the in Netherlands. regulation risk Á 182. aainJunlo at Sciences Earth of Journal Canadian ae 71,929 87-1A, Paper , aainApn Journal Alpine Canadian ikAnalysis Risk tblt seseto h Capricorn the of assessment Stability ora fHydrology of Journal Á 5() 231 (2), 25 , 934. niern Geology Engineering 7 1321 37, , hss(S) Univer- (BSc). Thesis . elgclSre of Survey Geological 1 8 21, , unb,BC: Burnaby, . Á 5,375 159, , Á 241. 1334. Á 2 1172 32, , 18. Cana- Á .Friele P. 44, , 393. Á tal. et vn,SG,19.Ftllnsie n adld ikin risk landslide and landslides Fatal 1997. S.G., Evans, vn,SG,20.Landslides. 2001. S.G., Evans, om . oi,MJ,adJkb . 04 h landslide The 2004. M., Jakob, and M.J., Bovis, K., Holm, volcanic volcanism, of Character 1994. C.J., Hickson, 1989. Executive, Safety and Health 1988. Executive, Safety and Health in .. isn .. n ezzPn . 2001. M., Deszcz-Pan, and T.W., Sisson, C.A., Finn, A 2005. E., Leroi, and S., Lacasse, K.K.S., Ho, Preface. R., Fell, 2005. J.V., Graff, De and S.G. Evans, change climate Recent 1994. J.J., Clague, and S.G. Evans, ree .. lge .. ipo,K,adSaik M., Stasiuk, and K., Simpson, J.J., Clague, P.A., Friele, landslide Volcanic 2006. J.J., Clague, and P.A. Friele, land- Holocene Large 2004. J.J., Clague, and P.A. Friele, uhi,RH n vn,SG,20.Wr,persistence, Work, 2007. S.G., Evans, and R.H. Guthrie, uhi,RH n vn,SG,20.Aayi flandslide of Analysis 2004. S.G., Evans, and R.H. Guthrie, assessment Canada. uvyo aaa ultn58 43 548, Bulletin Canada Canada, in of hazards Survey geological of synthesis hnigadrteti otwsenBiihColumbia. British Geomorphology glacial southwestern Age in Ice retreat post-Little and thinning to basins alpine of response 231 British Southwestern region, Cascade Columbia Vancouver Washington the the and of hazards of Columbia end British State. northern arc, risk, magmatic and hazards hazards, industrial major of Office. Stationery vicinity HM London: the in planning Office. stations power nuclear from rtemlyatrdznsa on ane volcano. Rainier Nature Mount at zones hy- altered collapse-prone drothermally of measurements Aerogeophysical Management Risk Landslide manage- and assessment ment. risk landslide for framework me- vii America, and occurrence, chanics effects, landslides: Catastrophic mountain in processes environments. geomorphic catastrophic and 05 mato utrayvlaoo Holocene Colum- on British valley, bia. volcano River quaternary Lillooet in a sedimentation of Impact 2005. 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USA. and Washington, Helens, St. Mount at 438. 429 Publication, Sciences Hydrological of Association Univer- State Oregon sity at held Symposium International review. eieti ewo re,nrhetr California. northwestern In Creek, Redwood in sediment Manage- Risk Landslide ment on Conference International management. and assessment Risk Vancou- North Band, BC. Indian ver, Currie Mount Diking District, Valley geomorphic, Pemberton investigations. hydrologic, hydraulic Corridor: and River Lillooet for reactor NRC Scientists. the cerned of review study a safety reactors: power nuclear 1977. W.M., Tech- 86 General PNW-141, Station Report, nical Experiment Range Northwest and Pacific Forest Service, Forest Basins Agriculture, of Drainage ment Forested in Routing Duzen California. and Van coastal basin, north headwater River, forested a in movement approach. Quaternaire budget a Columbia: sediment British basin, River Lillooet in production and behavior Columbia. dynamic properties Columbia: physical British mountains, ..Beschta R.L. : ovli,Oeo,3 Oregon, Corvallis, , Á 984. acue,B,159 BC, Vancouver, , Geology elgclSre fAeiaBulletin America of Survey Geological edleg rxsSrne,685 Praxis-Springer, Heidelberg: . 5 45 45, , abig,M:Teuinfrcon- for union The MA: Cambridge, . opoercadgoehia otoson controls geotechnical and Morphometric no fcnendsinit,terssof risks the scientists, concerned of Union 5 231 25, , ersflw ntesuhr coast southern the in flows Debris hss(h) nvriyo British of University (PhD). Thesis . Á 57. 9 151 79, , tal et ae eore Research Resources Water ersflwpoessadrelated and processes flow Debris Á 234. Á ,eds. ., uut18,International 1987, August 7 Á Á 198. hss(h) University (PhD). Thesis . 96. Á 161. eorpi hsqeet physique Ge´ographie nSdmn Budgets Sediment In rceig fthe of Proceedings rceig fthe of Proceedings SDepart- US . 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A.J., Cannon, and C.J., Reynolds, P.H., Whitfield, o osi eri ai,BiihColumbia. Journal British Resources Basin, Water dian Georgia in extremes flows low streamflow future Modeling xmlsfo h eri ai,BiihColumbia. Journal British Resources Basin, Water climates: Georgia Canadian future the and from present examples in streamflow Modeling 1228 Engineers, Electronics and Electrical Symposium Sensing o.2 e ok nttt of Institute York: New 2. Vol. , 8 633 28, , 7 427 27, , Á 656. Á Á od and floods 1230. Á 456. Cana-