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FEATURES 28 | Boeing 737 MAX return timeline 44 | Pentagon preps boutique industry remains uncertain for large-scale production 14 | Crew Dragon Debut NASA and SpaceX are poised for 30 | ADS-B and COVID-19: Air traffic 45 | MBDA patent offers glimpse into the first U.S. orbital spaceflight reflects pandemic’s impact Europe’s hypersonic weapon plans since the space shuttle CARGO 46 | Raytheon LRSO prize completes 20 | Bad to Worse 31 China pushes cargo expansion, | nuclear upgrade supplier roles The aerospace industry begins mergers with logistics to reshape in response to the 47 | Airbus automated refueling is first effects of the COVID-19 crisis SUSTAINABILITY 37 | The coronavirus crisis will affect step to autonomous capability 32 | Recycling Gets Smart emissions for the long term Owners are dismantling aircraft 52 | Japan boosts detection range by in environmentally sustainable 38 | By plane or by train? COVID-19 fusing radar and IRST ways to recoup their value could mean more travel by rail 53 | Norwegian-U.S. ramjet tie-up 48 | German Rejuvenation 40 | Ambitious flight-test regime could lead to more lethal missiles New airlifter and helo buys are planned for RACER demonstrator CONNECTED AEROSPACE planned, but budgeting for new MANUFACTURING fighters and ISR platforms lags 41 | Airbus targets advances in 54 | Ligado Networks’ drive to 5G production with digital tools threatens GPS after FCC ruling

SPACE DEFENSE VIEWPOINT 16 | Panel sounds the alarm over ISS 23 | Embraer airlifter should survive 58 | Aerospace companies must invest U.S. national lab overseer Boeing joint-venture setback in strategic priorities now 17 | Osiris-Rex clears one test and ON THE COVER prepares for June trial Nine years after the last U.S. human orbital spaceflight, SpaceX is poised to launch NASA astronauts COMMERCIAL AVIATION Robert Behnken, rear, and Douglas Hurley, front, to test its new Crew Dragon spacecraft. The 24 | Pandemic fallout prompts bleak astronauts suited up in March to participate in a full simulation of launch and docking with flight outlook for civil engine market controllers in Houston and SpaceX headquarters in Hawthorne, California. SpaceX photo. Aviation Week publishes a digital edition every week. Read it at AviationWeek.com/AWST 26 | European carriers try to determine how business will look after crisis DIGITAL EXTRAS Access exclusive online features from articles accompanied by this icon.

AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MAY 4-17, 2020 3 Editor-In-Chief Joseph C. Anselmo [email protected] Executive Editors Jen DiMascio (Defense and Space) [email protected] Jens Flottau (Commercial Aviation) [email protected] Graham Warwick (Technology) [email protected] Editors Lindsay Bjerregaard, Sean Broderick, Michael Bruno, Bill Carey, Thierry Dubois, William Garvey, Ben Goldstein, Lee Hudson, Irene Klotz, Helen Massy- Beresford, Jefferson Morris, Guy Norris, Tony Osborne, Bradley Perrett, James Pozzi, Adrian Schofield, Lee Ann Shay, Steve Trimble Chief Aircraft Evaluation Editor Fred George Director, Editorial and Online Production Michael O. Lavitt Associate Managing Editor Andrea Hollowell Art Director Lisa Caputo Artists Thomas De Pierro, Rosa Pineda, Colin Throm Copy Editors Jack Freifelder, Arturo Mora, Natalia Pelayo, Andy Savoie Production Editors Audra Avizienis, Theresa Petruso Contributing Photographer Joseph Pries Director, Digital Content Strategy Rupa Haria Content Marketing Manager Rija Tariq Data & Analytics Director, Forecasts and Aerospace Insights Brian Kough Senior Manager, Data Operations/Production Terra Deskins Manager, Military Data Operations Michael Tint Editorial Offices 2121 K Street, NW, Suite 210, Washington, D.C. 20037 Phone: +1 (202) 517-1100 GoGo beyondbeyond thethe newsnews ofof thethe 605 Third Avenue, New York, N.Y. 10158 Phone: +1 (212) 204-4200 dayday withwith AviationAviation WWeekeek Bureau Chiefs Auckland IntelligenceIntelligence Network’sNetwork’s Adrian [email protected] Market Brieﬁ ngs. Beijing Bradley Perrett [email protected] Cape Canaveral These sector-specifi c intelligence Irene Klotz [email protected] Chicago briefi ngs empower busy Lee Ann Shay [email protected] executives to stay-ahead of the Frankfurt market, identify opportunities and Jens Flottau [email protected] Houston drive revenue. Mark Carreau [email protected] London Tony Osborne [email protected] Los Angeles LEARN MORE: Guy Norris [email protected] aviationweek.com/marketbrieﬁ ngs Lyon Thierry Dubois [email protected] Moscow Maxim Pyadushkin [email protected] Paris Helen Massy-Beresford [email protected] Washington Jen DiMascio [email protected] Wichita Molly McMillin [email protected]

President, Aviation Week Network Gregory Hamilton Managing Director, Intelligence & Data Services Anne McMahon

4 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MAY 4-17, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST FEEDBACK

Editor-In-Chief Joseph C. Anselmo [email protected] ‘HAVE YOU SEEN MY MAGAZINE?’ tion mechanism to allow it to become a Different Is Not Always Better;

Executive Editors My dad, James E. Hannigan, who propulsor, so three as well. Bonus? Bell Choose Wisely.” The hyscram engine Jen DiMascio (Defense and Space) [email protected] passed away in January, was a long- is testing an electric distributed tailro- concept described in “Hyper Cycle” Jens Flottau (Commercial Aviation) [email protected] time subscriber to Aviation Week & tor system—even fewer moving parts. (April 6-19, p. 44) is proof that you Graham Warwick (Technology) [email protected] Space Technology. For decades, I can I predict the Bell will come in as the must choose wisely. Lindsay Bjerregaard, Sean Broderick, Editors remember seeing copies of AW&ST in FARA price leader. I could write a book on the flaws and Michael Bruno, Bill Carey, Thierry Dubois, William Garvey, the house. He also had a long career in misconceptions in this concept, but Ben Goldstein, Lee Hudson, Irene Klotz, Helen Massy- aviation and space technology: Starting Jason Wooden, Mendon, Utah I will just hit the two most egregious: Beresford, Jefferson Morris, Guy Norris, Tony Osborne, out as a flight-test engineer for Boeing, Turbomachinery operating up to Bradley Perrett, James Pozzi, Adrian Schofield, Lockheed and the U.S. Air Force; mov- REVISING ROCKETS Mach 8. The stagnation inlet air Lee Ann Shay, Steve Trimble ing to NASA, where he ran the Lunar I read with much interest Irene Klotz’s temperature at Mach 8 is over 5,000F, Fred George Chief Aircraft Evaluation Editor Module Branch during Apollo; and re- “Price of Reusability” (April 7-20, which exceeds the rotating material Michael O. Lavitt Director, Editorial and Online Production tiring from various NASA contractors p. MRO32). I was corporate director limits even when not rotating. The Andrea Hollowell Associate Managing Editor that worked on the space shuttle. of advanced concepts for McDonnell magnetic bearings would fail at a Lisa Caputo Art Director Douglas when we built and flew the far lower temperature. Cooling the Artists Thomas De Pierro, Rosa Pineda, Colin Throm NASA Delta Clipper in 1993, the first rocket superconducting rotating elements is Jack Freifelder, Arturo Mora, Copy Editors to take off and land vertically. After not possible because no suitable low- Natalia Pelayo, Andy Savoie the DC-XA program was ended temper ature heat sink is available. Audra Avizienis, Theresa Petruso Production Editors because of a landing gear problems I This is why cocooning was invented. Joseph Pries Contributing Photographer felt there was a way to improve on this When compressor stages are turned Rupa Haria Director, Digital Content Strategy approach by doing the following; off, the air passing through will wind- Content Marketing Manager Rija Tariq ■ Eliminate the need for the landing mill the blades, absorbing power and Data & Analytics gear by hooking and latching on a pad- reducing the airstream total pressure. Brian Kough Director, Forecasts and Aerospace Insights ded recovery line sliding up the side of In most propeller aircraft, the blades

Senior Manager, Data Operations/Production the rocket strung between two towers. are feathered when the engine is Terra Deskins ■ Minimize fuel/oxidizer use especially turned off to reduce air drag of a wind- Michael Tint Manager, Military Data Operations for a second-stage rocket by using the milling prop. Editorial Offices James Hannigan, at left in back row. rocket body as a low-density decelera- Magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) 2121 K Street, NW, Suite 210, Washington, D.C. 20037 Although in later years he developed tor by bringing the rocket down rotat- augmenter. In this concept, the air Phone: +1 (202) 517-1100 dementia, and slowly his interests and ing about a lateral axis and perpendic- passing through the superconducting 605 Third Avenue, New York, N.Y. 10158 GoGo beyondbeyond thethe newsnews ofof thethe abilities dwindled to where he would ular to the direction of travel. power turbine has power extracted, Phone: +1 (212) 204-4200 only sit in his chair all day long, doing ■ Minimize heating by performing which then powers the augmenter. dayday withwith AviationAviation WWeekeek Bureau Chiefs Auckland nothing (or napping), he never lost multiple rebound maneuvers off the The turbine is at most 70% efficient IntelligenceIntelligence Network’sNetwork’s Adrian [email protected] interest in his AW&ST magazine. He atmosphere to cool in space before and the MHD accelerator much Market Brieﬁ ngs. Beijing would thumb through the magazine coming back in and rapidly turning less. Even if both are 100% efficient, Bradley Perrett [email protected] until the very end. We don’t know how down to thick air to decelerate. diverting energy from a low-energy Cape Canaveral much he understood, but he always ■ Keep the crew compartment at- stream to a high-energy stream will These sector-specifi c intelligence Irene Klotz [email protected] asked, “Have you seen my Aviation tached to the rocket to reduce refur- reduce thrust. Chicago briefi ngs empower busy Lee Ann Shay [email protected] Week magazine?” And it was always bishment and make it easier to use executives to stay-ahead of the Frankfurt there for him. the rocket fuselage as a low-density Mel Bulman, Fair Oaks, California market, identify opportunities and Jens Flottau [email protected] decelerator. Houston Thomas Hannigan, Silver Spring, ■ Allow a large center of gravity range drive revenue. Mark Carreau [email protected] Maryland using small control fins by rotating the CORRECTIONS London rocket, preferably about a lateral axis. “Sprawling Alaska Complex Becomes Tony Osborne [email protected] FARA TOO COMPLEX ■ Enable the crew compartment to Newest Home for F-35” (April 20- Los Angeles May 3, p. 46), should have stated that LEARN MORE: Guy Norris [email protected] As I gaze at the Future Attack Recon- rapidly separate from the rocket. Lyon naissance Aircraft (FARA) contend- It wouldn’t take that much to mod- Eielson AFB has one of the world’s aviationweek.com/marketbrieﬁ ngs Thierry Dubois [email protected] er renderings in “Boeing Reveals ify either SpaceX or ULA rockets and largest runways. Moscow Long-Awaited FARA Design” (March 9- spacecraft to use this approach. Maxim Pyadushkin [email protected] 22, p. 26), I’m taken back to my first day “COVID-19 Complicated T901 Mile- Paris Helen Massy-Beresford [email protected] on the job as an 18-year-old private in Randy McDonnell, Las Vegas stone as FARA Awaits New Engine Washington an Army Reserve Medevac unit, when Design” (April 20-May 3, p. 40) should Jen DiMascio [email protected] I was handed a grease gun and ordered ‘CHOOSE WISELY’ have stated that a critical design Wichita to lube a UH-1 Huey sitting nearby. I have retired after 50+ years in review milestone for the GE Aviation Molly McMillin [email protected] I came to appreciate the phrase “a advanced propulsion projects at GE T901 turboshaft engine originally helicopter is 10,000 spare parts flying and Aerojet. My professional tag scheduled in the third quarter now President, Aviation Week Network Gregory Hamilton in close formation.” line is “Better Is Always Different, could slip into the fourth quarter. Managing Director, Intelligence & Data Services Of all the FARA proposals, only Anne McMahon one has two moving rotors: the Bell Address letters to the Editor-in-Chief, Aviation Week & Space Technology, Invictus. The AVX CCH? Four. The 2121 K Street, NW, Suite 210, Washington, DC, 20037 or send via email to: Sikorsky Raider and Boeing? Three. [email protected] Letters may be edited for length and clarity; The Karem AR40’s tailrotor has a rota- a verifiable address and daytime telephone number are required.

4 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MAY 4-17, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MAY 4-17, 2020 5 WHO’S WHERE

6 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MAY 4-17, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST WHO’S WHERE

The Universities Space Research Association Woodward Inc. has reappointed Robert F. Weber, Jr., as has named Margaret Meixner director of vice chairman and added the role of chief financial officer, mission operations for the Stratospheric in response to ongoing economic uncertainties due to the Observatory For Infrared Astronomy COVID-19 pandemic. He succeeds Jonathan W. Thayer, (SOFIA), NASA’s major airborne astro- who has left the role of chief financial officer. nomical observatory. SOFIA staff also will Astroscale, an early startup in the satellite-debris- team with the Deutsches SOFIA Institute removal market, has hired Dave Fischer as U.S. vice to boost productivity and prepare for the president of business development and advanced sys- James Webb Space Telescope’s entry into service. tems and David Hebert as U.S. communications director. Acro Aircraft Seating has hired Neil Cairns as CEO. Fischer had led business development for RUAG Space Cairns has experience in all seating classes and a track USA and held several roles with Ball Aerospace. Hebert record of lean-process and performance improvement. was The Aerospace Corp. senior communications strate- He had been Collins Aerospace vice gist and government liaison. SEPTEMBER 14-16, 2020 president and general manager and pre- Summit Aviation has hired U.S. Army Hôtel Palladia viously ran the B/E Aerospace seating Master Sgt. (ret.) Frank Reuter as direc- facility in Kilkeel, Northern Ireland. tor of maintenance. Reuter was AAR Lift Toulouse, France Ann Ackerson has been hired as BAE maintenance and engineering vice presi- Systems’ chief procurement officer and dent, lead rotary wing mechanic for Black named to the senior leadership team and Water Aviation, Melbourne, Florida, and to chair its global procurement council. Presidential Airways senior maintenance Designed for Leaders and Decision-makers from OEMs Ackerson had held executive positions at Freeman and manager. He succeeds John Bonnell, who is retiring. Dresser-Rand. She succeeds Paul Smith. Duncan Aviation has promoted Pete Marte to manager to Supplier Tiers in the Commercial Aviation Suppliers Industry Draken International has elected Joseph Ford as CEO of the White Plains, New York, and Oxford, Connecticut, and board member. Ford was president at DynAviation. satellite avionics shops and Aaron Jensen to manager of He succeeds founder and CEO Jared Isaacman, who will the Seattle satellite avionics shop, from supervisor. Dun- At SpeedNews’ 21st Annual Commercial Aviation Industry Suppliers Topics focus on key components driving the industry: become the nonexecutive board chairman. can plans to launch an aircraft interior Conference - Europe, aircraft and engine manufacturers will present disinfecting capability soon. status reports on their programs. Industry experts will offer delivery and Supply chain trends and the future landscape Aeronautics Group has promoted Raw materials and manufacturers supply chain Matan Perry (Perez) to vice president retirement forecasts, and review the current economic status of the industry. Managing supplier risks and investments of marketing and business development Maintenance and subcontractor issues will also be addressed. from director. His military experience OEM product strategy and market developments Ensuring with a wide variety of UAV platform types has served clients building UAV At the Conference, Delegates will meet face-to-face with industry peers and Aircraft production and delivery forecasts safety and performance Market and technology drivers from the squadrons within their own territory. develop a valuable network of industry experts, as well as gain knowledge for today and tomorrow Richard Goglia has been named an independent di- OEM perspective rector for Triumph Group. A former Raytheon treasurer, and updates enabling them to adjust business plans and strategies in this Who benefits from attending? Goglia will join the audit and finance committees. dynamic industry. CDB Aviation, a wholly owned Irish subsidiary of Strategic planning, marketing executives China Development Bank Financial Leasing, has hired and business development leaders Jorge Garcia as senior vice president for commercial and Supply chain executives and senior decision makers Alan Mangels as vice president for commercial, both in What Delegates say about attending SpeedNews Conferences the Americas. Garcia was AerCap leasing vice president. Equipment OEMs, sub-tier manufacturers, Mangels was Rolls-Royce vice president material and parts suppliers of business aviation sales and marketing. Industry analysts Spaceflight launch services has hired Lessors and financial community members Dennis Wiessner as general counsel. He Economic development executives With light weight, small volume, was vice president/general counsel of 81% 93% outstanding environmental robust- Sea Launch when it was an international joint venture of Boeing. 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6 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MAY 4-17, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST FIRST TAKE

as the location for a $300 million development, production and support facility COMMERCIAL AVIATION for the AS2 supersonic business jet. Boeing is to cut its workforce by 10%— 15% in commercial aircraft and global China’s EHang has partnered with the services—and cut airliner production city of Hezhou in Guangxi province to rates in response to the COVID-19 cri- build the first dedicated vertiport for Aviation Week Network sis. Airbus cut its production rates by its electric vertical-takeoff-and-landing Wins Three Neal Awards a third in April and is focusing on pre- air taxis. The Aviation Week Network has won three serving cash (page 20). Jesse H. Neal Awards, the business-to-busi- Zipline drones are delivering COVID-19 ness equivalent of the Pulitzer Prize. The Embraer has launched arbitration test samples collected from rural clin- Neal judges awarded a Best News Coverage against Boeing, accusing the U.S. giant ics in Ghana to laboratories in the cap- honor to Air Transport and Safety Editor of wrongfully terminating an agreement ital, Accra, and Kumasi, the country’s Sean Broderick and his colleagues on the to form a commercial aircraft joint ven- second-largest city. editorial and data teams for their coverage of ture. Boeing canceled the deal on April the Boeing 737 MAX saga in Aviation Week & 25, worth $4.2 billion to Embraer, citing DEFENSE Space Technology, Aviation Daily and on the a failure to resolve critical conditions A German order for Boeing Super Hor- Check 6 podcast. And Neal Awards for Best (page 20). nets could lead to “massive, lasting harm,” to the country’s defense indus- Instructional Content and Best Technical Airbus and Rolls-Royce have terminated try, Airbus warns. Germany also pro- Content went to Business & Commercial the E-Fan X hybrid-electric propulsion poses buying 93 Eurofighters (page 50). Aviation writers Fred George, James Albright, demonstrator as they scale back research David Esler and Patrick Veillette. The winners and development activities in response The first of three Saab GlobalEye swing- were announced on April 17. to the COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic. role surveillance platforms was delivered to the United Arab Emirates air The European Commission plans to fi- force at Al-Dhafra airbase near Abu fan engines for the Boeing B-52H fleet. nalize social distancing and sanitation Dhabi on April 29. guidelines for aviation by mid-May, pav- Kazan Aviation Plant has handed over ing the way for flights to resume in a The U.S. Missile Defense Agency is seek- the first two midlife-upgrade Tu-160M unified way. ing bids for an $11 billion effort to devel- bombers for state trials ahead of a op a new generation of national missile scheduled entry into service in 2021. The UK government has approved trials defense interceptors. It plans to award using a fixed-wing unmanned aircraft to two contracts. The Russian government has commis- fly medical supplies from the mainland sioned the Mikoyan and Sukhoi design to the Isle of Wight. Three companies have received the U.S. bureaus to study aerodynamics for a Air Force’s second draft solicitation new lightweight fighter, says the RIA Aerion has selected Melbourne, Florida, for a contract to supply 608 new turbo- Novosti news agency.

Global Recession and the Risk to Business Aviation

1,200 The current downcycle for 40% business jets continues to be the worst since the 1980s. 1,000 And given the strong historical correlation between corporate profits and aircraft deliveries— 800 31% underlined by the declines after the 1981 and 2001 economic 600 recessions—COVID-19 presents 61% a great risk in the foreseeable future, with expected profit de- 400 cline and reduced wealth, say JP Morgan analysts.

200 Sources: Teal Group, The General Aviation Manufacturers Association, company 0 reports and JP Morgan estimates 1965 1969 1973 1977 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 2009 2013 2017 2021E

8 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MAY 4-17, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST FIRST TAKE as the location for a $300 million devel- The U.S. Air Force has selected Raytheon VIEW FROM WASHINGTON opment, production and support facility Technologies for the $4.5 billion Long- COMMERCIAL AVIATION for the AS2 supersonic business jet. Range Standoff cruise missile program Two Is Company in Defense Launch Boeing is to cut its workforce by 10%— two years early, closing down Lockheed 15% in commercial aircraft and global China’s EHang has partnered with the Martin’s rival effort (page 46). The heavy-lift launch market is unlikely to support more than two services—and cut airliner production city of Hezhou in Guangxi province to U.S. launch providers in the long term, according to a long-awaited Aviation Week Network rates in response to the COVID-19 cri- build the first dedicated vertiport for SPACE RAND report commissioned by the U.S. Air Force. sis. Airbus cut its production rates by its electric vertical-takeoff-and-landing Wins Three Neal Awards It is unlikely the heavy-lift launch mar- a third in April and is focusing on pre- air taxis. The Aviation Week Network has won three ket can support more than two U.S. Highlighting the short-term schedule risks of transitioning to serving cash (page 20). Jesse H. Neal Awards, the business-to-busi- providers in the long term, concludes a new providers, the study supports the National Security Space Zipline drones are delivering COVID-19 ness equivalent of the Pulitzer Prize. The long-awaited RAND report for the U.S. Launch (NSSL) strategy of continuing to deliver tailored support Embraer has launched arbitration test samples collected from rural clin- Air Force. Blue Origin, Northrop Grum- Neal judges awarded a Best News Coverage to three launch operators through 2023 while transitioning to against Boeing, accusing the U.S. giant ics in Ghana to laboratories in the cap- honor to Air Transport and Safety Editor man, SpaceX and United Launch Alli- of wrongfully terminating an agreement ital, Accra, and Kumasi, the country’s Sean Broderick and his colleagues on the ance are competing for two contracts two providers for the long term. to form a commercial aircraft joint ven- second-largest city. editorial and data teams for their coverage of for space launches in 2022-2027. The U.S. Space Force plans to award a pair of contracts this ture. Boeing canceled the deal on April the Boeing 737 MAX saga in Aviation Week & 25, worth $4.2 billion to Embraer, citing DEFENSE year for the second phase of NSSL, with Blue Origin, Northrop Space Technology, Aviation Daily and on the Iran’s Qased three-stage launch vehicle a failure to resolve critical conditions A German order for Boeing Super Hor- placed the Nour 1 satellite into a 425- Check 6 podcast. And Neal Awards for Best Grumman, SpaceX and United Launch Alliance competing to (page 20). nets could lead to “massive, lasting km (264-mi.) orbit on April 22, but U.S. provide launches in 2022-27. harm,” to the country’s defense indus- Instructional Content and Best Technical Space Command assesses its intelli- Airbus and Rolls-Royce have terminated try, Airbus warns. Germany also pro- Content went to Business & Commercial gence-gathering capability as minimal. RAND’s assessment shows supporting more than two launch the E-Fan X hybrid-electric propulsion poses buying 93 Eurofighters (page 50). Aviation writers Fred George, James Albright, providers would decrease each vendor’s launch tempo, lowering David Esler and Patrick Veillette. The winners demonstrator as they scale back research Russia’s S7 Group has shelved its Sea reliability and increasing costs. However, the Air Force is under and development activities in response The first of three Saab GlobalEye swing- were announced on April 17. Launch space program until market to the COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic. role surveillance platforms was deliv- conditions improve. pressure to support three launch providers. ered to the United Arab Emirates air The report recommends the Space Force prepare for only two The European Commission plans to fi- force at Al-Dhafra airbase near Abu fan engines for the Boeing B-52H fleet. Premature shutdown of one of nine U.S. providers of heavy-lift launch, one of which may have little nalize social distancing and sanitation Dhabi on April 29. Merlin engines on a SpaceX Falcon 9 guidelines for aviation by mid-May, pav- Kazan Aviation Plant has handed over launch in March was caused by clean- support from the commercial market. The Space Force likely will ing the way for flights to resume in a The U.S. Missile Defense Agency is seek- the first two midlife-upgrade Tu-160M ing fluid trapped inside a sensor ignit- support three providers through 2023, but that does not mean unified way. ing bids for an $11 billion effort to devel- bombers for state trials ahead of a ing (page 14). selecting three companies for NSSL Phase 2, cautions RAND. op a new generation of national missile scheduled entry into service in 2021. The UK government has approved trials defense interceptors. It plans to award The U.S. Defense Department has ob- using a fixed-wing unmanned aircraft to two contracts. The Russian government has commis- jected to a Federal Communications fly medical supplies from the mainland sioned the Mikoyan and Sukhoi design Commission decision to grant Ligado to the Isle of Wight. Three companies have received the U.S. bureaus to study aerodynamics for a Networks a slice of spectrum adjacent 90 YEARS AGO IN Air Force’s second draft solicitation new lightweight fighter, says the RIA to GPS (page 54). AVIATION WEEK Aerion has selected Melbourne, Florida, for a contract to supply 608 new turbo- Novosti news agency. The aviation industry put on a brave face A Falcon 9 lifted off from Kennedy as the pain of the Great Depression deep- Space Center on April 22 to deliver a ened in 1930. Our May 3 issue previewed sixth batch of SpaceX’s Starlink com- the upcoming New York Aircraft Salon, a munications satellites into low Earth Global Recession and the Risk to Business Aviation showcase event for the world’s largest city. orbit (page 14). The eight-day exhibition required a remod- 1,200 The current downcycle for eling of Madison Square Garden to make 40% business jets continues to be OBITUARIES room for 50 airplanes—some hung from the worst since the 1980s. Former NASA Administrator James 1,000 the ceiling—and a wide array of engines And given the strong historical M. Beggs died April 23 in Bethesda, and accessories. A star of the show was the correlation between corporate Maryland. He was 94. During his ten- “mammoth” four-engine Fokker F-32, which profits and aircraft deliveries— ure as administrator in 1981-85, Beggs 800 could carry 30 passengers. Other aircraft 31% underlined by the declines af- oversaw the early era of the space on display included the Consolidated Com- ter the 1981 and 2001 economic shuttle program. A former U.S. Navy modore flying boat, a Boeing fighter “fully recessions—COVID-19 presents submariner, Beggs served as NASA 600 associate administrator in 1968-69, equipped with guns” and the Lockheed 61% a great risk in the foreseeable after which he moved to the Trans- Sirius that Col. Charles Lindbergh and his future, with expected profit de- portation Department where he was wife, Anne, had flown just two weeks earlier they were reducing aircraft prices between cline and reduced wealth, say 400 an advocate for supersonic air trans- to set a new coast-to-coast speed record. $4,000 and $13,000, respectively, while the JP Morgan analysts. portation in 1969-73. “Mr. Beggs led But several of the ads in the magazine Ford Motor Co. touted a nearly 10% cut for the agency during the earliest days of reflected the tough economic times. Fokker its 14-passenger, all-metal 5-AT transport, 200 the space shuttle program and helped and partner General Motors announced lowering the price tag to $50,000. Sources: Teal Group, The General Aviation us open a whole new era of explora- Manufacturers Association, company tion,” says NASA Administrator Jim Read every issue of Aviation Week back to 1916 at: archive.aviationweek.com 0 reports and JP Morgan estimates Bridenstine. 1965 1969 1973 1977 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 2009 2013 2017 2021E

8 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MAY 4-17, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MAY 4-17, 2020 9 COMMENTARY UP FRONT RICHARD ABOULAFIA

THE NOT-SO-UNEXPECTED END Winner/Loser: Boeing. The news here is mixed. of the Boeing-Embraer jetliner joint ven- Leaving Airbus with a market segment it cannot ad- ture undoes years of planning by both dress (100-130 seats) is certainly not a welcome out- parties. It also raises many questions come. And Embraer would have been a fantastic source about the future of the 70-120-seat market. But be - of engineers and flight-test resources for Boeing’s next fore those questions are settled, there will clearly be jetliner. Across the board, Embraer would be a natural winners and losers as a result of this development: partner for Boeing in adjacent markets and in future Loser: Embraer’s jetliner business. With Airbus’ product development. acquisition of Bombardier’s C Series, Embraer went On the other hand, Boeing may not design a new from competing with a peer small airframer to com- clean-sheet jetliner for many years. A tie-up with peting with a giant one. It will be hard for Embraer to Mitsubishi could be a nice consolation prize. If it does pressure its suppliers when the volume it offers is a wind up requesting U.S. government financial assis- tiny fraction of Airbus’, a problem that the Boeing joint tance in the coming months, Boeing would not need to venture would have rectified. So E190/195E-2 costs worry about explaining why it just spent $4.2 billion ac- will remain high relative to the A220, resulting in lost quiring a foreign business. Most of all, Boeing can walk profit, market share or both. away from the joint venture with more than $4 billion in Winner: Airbus. The 100-130-seat market segment liquidity to add to its beleaguered balance sheet. is growing and likely to do well in the aftermath of None of these manufacturer outcomes is certain. the COVID-19 crisis as airlines look for jets that allow There are simply too many outstanding variables. them to keep their networks intact with less total ca- How quickly can Embraer recover and reconfigure itself, since it had reorganized in preparation for the joint venture? Will it attract Brazilian government EMBRAER Industry Chaos Winners and losers in the Embraer-Boeing breakup

support due to the COVID-19 aviation market collapse? Will it find the resources needed to pursue its new turboprop concept on its own? Will the KC-390 military transport joint venture between Embraer pacity. Airbus will have a much stronger position here and Boeing survive? It is a completely separate joint for the same reasons that Embraer is now weaker: It venture that Boeing says it wants to continue, but it no longer has to worry about a direct competitor with might be hit by fallout from the inevitable acrimony the same level of supply chain muscle and, therefore, following the jetliner joint venture collapse. cost control. The A220’s market share will only grow. There also are the questions of Mitsubishi’s plans to Winner: Mitsubishi. The E175 remains the most acquire a SpaceJet product support apparatus and its popular regional jet on the market today, and with parent company’s tolerance for ongoing cost overruns Boeing’s help it would have increased its market and seemingly interminable program delays. share against the only other regional jet family with The biggest outstanding variable is the ultimate a modern engine, the SpaceJet (formerly the MRJ). position of Embraer. The bitterness emerging with Keeping Embraer as a relatively small airframer gives the joint venture’s dissolution implies that a connec- Mitsubishi a better shot at growing its market share. tion with Boeing is unlikely, but it still remains the The SpaceJet is unlikely to grab the top position, but it most sensible outcome. No level of government sup- is now in a much better place. port can change the fact that it is the only small jetlin- The end of Embraer/Boeing also may free Boeing er prime in an industry filled with giants. Will China to work with Mitsubishi on product support. Collabo- finally admit that the ARJ21 is a failure and move to rating with Boeing on SpaceJet product support was acquire Embraer? Will it be allowed to do so? Are Mitsubishi’s original plan, but this was thrown into dis- there any other partners or purchasers for Embraer’s array by the announcement of Boeing’s Embraer joint jetliner unit? venture. In fact, Mitsubishi’s backup SpaceJet support The end of this joint venture means that for smaller plan, acquisition of Bombardier’s CRJ business for jetliners, market chaos will be accompanied by indus- its service network, is not going to close until the sec- try chaos. That is not a welcome development. c ond half of 2020. Conceivably, Mitsubishi could find a way out of that deal if it can reach an agreement with Contributing columnist Richard Aboulafia is vice president of analy- Boeing in time. sis at Teal Group. He is based in Washington.

10 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MAY 4-17, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST COMMENTARY COMMENTARY UP FRONT GOING CONCERNS RICHARD ABOULAFIA MICHAEL BRUNO

A&D Revenue Exposure by Market THE NOT-SO-UNEXPECTED END Winner/Loser: Boeing. The news here is mixed. COMPANIES HAVE GOOD QUARTERS of the Boeing-Embraer jetliner joint ven- Leaving Airbus with a market segment it cannot ad- and bad quarters, but rarely does a whole Percent of 2019 Revenues by Market Aerospace ture undoes years of planning by both dress (100-130 seats) is certainly not a welcome out- industry sound like it just got sucker- Aerospace Defense/ Other Company Original parties. It also raises many questions come. And Embraer would have been a fantastic source punched. That’s what the next few weeks Aftermarket Space Government about the future of the 70-120-seat market. But be - of engineers and flight-test resources for Boeing’s next will be like in the aerospace and defense sector, and Equipment fore those questions are settled, there will clearly be jetliner. Across the board, Embraer would be a natural for sure there will be headlines describing industrial AAR 2% 66% 33% 0% winners and losers as a result of this development: partner for Boeing in adjacent markets and in future carnage as the industry gasps for air and works to re- Aerojet Rocketdyne 0 0 100 0 Loser: Embraer’s jetliner business. With Airbus’ product development. cover after COVID-19. AeroVironment 0 0 79 0 acquisition of Bombardier’s C Series, Embraer went On the other hand, Boeing may not design a new The truth is the aerospace and defense (A&D) supply Astronics 43 36 18 2 from competing with a peer small airframer to com- clean-sheet jetliner for many years. A tie-up with chain suddenly is far too large for what is needed, may- CPI Aero 20 5 75 0 peting with a giant one. It will be hard for Embraer to Mitsubishi could be a nice consolation prize. If it does be by a quarter or a third of excess capacity. As a result, pressure its suppliers when the volume it offers is a wind up requesting U.S. government financial assis- quick or methodical cutbacks in manufacturing and Crane Co. 11 5 9 0 tiny fraction of Airbus’, a problem that the Boeing joint tance in the coming months, Boeing would not need to services are expected throughout the syndicates that Cubic Corp. 0 0 43 57 venture would have rectified. So E190/195E-2 costs worry about explaining why it just spent $4.2 billion ac- make airliners, business jets and other aircraft. As pub- DLH Corp. 0 0 45 55 will remain high relative to the A220, resulting in lost quiring a foreign business. Most of all, Boeing can walk lic companies report their latest quarterly financial re- Ducommun 42 6 45 0 profit, market share or both. away from the joint venture with more than $4 billion in sults in late April and May, they will have to address the HEICO 4 49 34 0 Winner: Airbus. The 100-130-seat market segment liquidity to add to its beleaguered balance sheet. year ahead and offer insight into their response plans. Hexcel 68 0 20 0 is growing and likely to do well in the aftermath of None of these manufacturer outcomes is certain. Unfortunately, business as usual prior to COVID-19 is Kratos Defense & Security 0 0 100 0 the COVID-19 crisis as airlines look for jets that allow There are simply too many outstanding variables. not expected until 2022 or later, according to numerous them to keep their networks intact with less total ca- How quickly can Embraer recover and reconfigure analysts and advisors. And that is just too long to carry Mercury Systems 0 0 100 0 itself, since it had reorganized in preparation for the extra financial costs, which means all levels will feel pain. RADA Electronic Industries 0 0 100 0 joint venture? Will it attract Brazilian government “People who didn’t plan for it were unreasonably Spirit AeroSystems 88 5 7 0 naive,” asserts Avitas consultant Adam Pilarski, a The Boeing Co. 52 11 37 0 EMBRAER longtime expert who espoused a bearish view on com- TransDigm Group 26 32 37 0 Industry Chaos mercial aviation long before the Boeing 737 MAX cri- Triumph Group 60 18 20 0 sis started gumming up business models. “There is no Winners and losers in the Notes: Aerospace original equipment and aerospace aftermarket include all commer- magic potion here. You will have less production.” cial transport and business jet exposure. Defense and space includes both original Embraer-Boeing breakup While Pilarski’s comment may come across as harsh, it equipment and aftermarket sales. accurately describes the depth of the coming paradigm Sources: Company Reports, Canaccord Genuity estimates support due to the COVID-19 aviation market col- shift for commercial aviation. Yes, perhaps it was too lapse? Will it find the resources needed to pursue its much to have asked OEMs and suppliers to model for a nies receive? This is a significant variable, and as of new turboprop concept on its own? Will the KC-390 95% collapse in passenger air traffic and two-thirds of mid-April, we still did not know how much even sector military transport joint venture between Embraer large commercial aircraft fleets getting parked—includ- leader Boeing will receive (presuming it does). pacity. Airbus will have a much stronger position here and Boeing survive? It is a completely separate joint ing brand-new deliv- Second, the sup- for the same reasons that Embraer is now weaker: It venture that Boeing says it wants to continue, but it eries. But practically ply chain has experi- no longer has to worry about a direct competitor with might be hit by fallout from the inevitable acrimony no one seemed to enced robust vetting the same level of supply chain muscle and, therefore, following the jetliner joint venture collapse. imagine simultaneous The Future With COVID-19 and stress-testing cost control. The A220’s market share will only grow. There also are the questions of Mitsubishi’s plans to cuts to new orders, Three watchpoints for change in A&D supply chains over the past decade. Winner: Mitsubishi. The E175 remains the most acquire a SpaceJet product support apparatus and its standing backlogs Did it work? Record popular regional jet on the market today, and with parent company’s tolerance for ongoing cost overruns and aftermarket revenue streams. Indeed, Pilarski was growth, record mergers and acquisitions, and record Boeing’s help it would have increased its market and seemingly interminable program delays. one of the few who envisioned an environment with much private equity involvement have dramatically consoli- share against the only other regional jet family with The biggest outstanding variable is the ultimate less than the traditional 5% annual growth in air traffic. dated industry (for better or worse). Yes, it meant elim- a modern engine, the SpaceJet (formerly the MRJ). position of Embraer. The bitterness emerging with That is now changing: Airbus has revealed narrow- ination of countless companies, and some smaller sur- Keeping Embraer as a relatively small airframer gives the joint venture’s dissolution implies that a connec- body and widebody production rate cuts of about a vivors remain stressed by technology investments and Mitsubishi a better shot at growing its market share. tion with Boeing is unlikely, but it still remains the third, and Boeing is expected to follow suit any day. meager working capital accounts. But top-tier compa- The SpaceJet is unlikely to grab the top position, but it most sensible outcome. No level of government sup- According to Credit Suisse analysts, such sudden nies have been working to eliminate chokepoints and is now in a much better place. port can change the fact that it is the only small jetlin- rate changes will have a materially negative impact on shore up weak links in their supply chains for the last The end of Embraer/Boeing also may free Boeing er prime in an industry filled with giants. Will China the supply chain because the effect is exponential. “[The few years, ironically as they sought to raise rates. to work with Mitsubishi on product support. Collabo- finally admit that the ARJ21 is a failure and move to supply chain] will need to cut production by much more Finally, many companies became less susceptible one rating with Boeing on SpaceJet product support was acquire Embraer? Will it be allowed to do so? Are as Airbus consumes its inventories—for instance, poten- way or another, especially through revenue diversifica- Mitsubishi’s original plan, but this was thrown into dis- there any other partners or purchasers for Embraer’s tially going to rate 20 on the A320 for some months and tion (see table). Will this lead to resilience? Some say yes. array by the announcement of Boeing’s Embraer joint jetliner unit? ramping up again to 40,” the analysts say. Boeing’s in- “In many ways, the supply chain is now more mature, venture. In fact, Mitsubishi’s backup SpaceJet support The end of this joint venture means that for smaller ventory—including roughly 800 MAXs that are backed diversified and well-positioned to handle this econom- plan, acquisition of Bombardier’s CRJ business for jetliners, market chaos will be accompanied by indus- up with its customers and supplier Spirit AeroSystems ic downturn versus in 2001 and 2008,” says Alex Krutz, its service network, is not going to close until the sec- try chaos. That is not a welcome development. c and are waiting to join its own fleets—is worse. managing director at Patriot Industrial Partners, an ad- ond half of 2020. Conceivably, Mitsubishi could find a Here are three factors to watch for in earnings re- visory firm focused on operations and supply chain. “A way out of that deal if it can reach an agreement with Contributing columnist Richard Aboulafia is vice president of analy- ports to discern how the supply chains will change. large number of suppliers over this last decade have tak- Boeing in time. sis at Teal Group. He is based in Washington. First, how much U.S. government aid will compa- en significant steps to ensure their long-term success.” c

10 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MAY 4-17, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MAY 4-17, 2020 11 COMMENTARY INSIDE BUSINESS AVIATION WILLIAM GARVEY

HERE’S A GAME EVERYBODY PLAYS ond time since joining the company. And just recently, but no one knows the ending for, oh, 25 his work came to my attention again. years or more: “Guess What They’ll Be- To help ease the urgent shortage of personal protec- come and Do.” tive equipment, Safe Flight started making face shields As a father, friend and neighbor, I’ve played that game for emergency room personnel on the front lines of for decades. I well remember the day I was introduced as the battle with COVID-19. But Chairman/CEO Randy the new assistant coach of my young son’s Little League Greene asked his managers if there was something more team. I studied all those tykes’ eager faces looking up they could do. When Michael’s manager posed him that at me expectantly and thought, “Where will life take same question, he called his brother, Dr. Matthew Lamb- each of you?” The season that followed was unremark- ton, the former Little Leaguer turned emergency room able—a fair reflection of my baseball coaching contri- physician at a Rhode Island hospital, who was very butions—but now, decades much in the thick of it. Mi- later, I have some answers chael’s question: Is there to my question. They be- Brothers in the Fight something more we can came a banker, songwriter, provide? “Ohhh, yeah!” investigator, choir director Lifesaving four-way split was Matt’s instant re-

and soldier, among other sponse. More ventilators. M diverse careers. Each one And so the young air- a surprise. And the game craft systems engineer continues. began researching medi-

Over the years, I got LESLEY LAMBTON. INSET: SAFE FLIGHT cal technology and came to learn that, in extreme to see one of those kids’ faces quite a lot because situations, ventilators could Matt Lambton became be divided or “split” for air/ my son’s best friend. They oxygen delivery to multiple were inseparable and es- patients. At his brother’s sentially lived in each oth- request, Matt overnighted er’s houses. As a result, our ventilator parts for siz- families grew quite friendly ing and Michael came up and familiar. It turned out with a splitter design that that Matt had a broth- would enable a single ven- er, Michael, a really good Michael (left) and Matthew Lambton. tilator to service one, two, kid. But he was a couple of years Matt’s junior, which three or four patients simultaneously. A team formed among grade schoolers counted as a full generation quickly to devise a production process using Safe Flight’s behind. As such, he never became a regular visitor to 3D printer and to ensure quality fabrication and material our place. But thanks to our family ties, we were aware traceability. Once fast-track-approved by the feds, the of his doings as he advanced through childhood and company planned to begin shipping devices immediately adolescence. However, once our kids were grown and and hoped licensees would do the same in quantity. gone, we moved to another state and lost touch. It is said that crisis speeds ingenuity. The elapsed Fast forward to the 2017 National Business Aviation time from Greene’s request for “something more” to Association (NBAA) Regional Forum at Westchester product selection and the Quad/Vent Splitter’s final County Airport. Matt Greene, then head of market- design was roughly 1.5 days. ing (now president) at nearby Safe Flight Instrument And here’s the thing, Safe Flight is just one of Corp., is walking past me with several young men in many business aviation companies stepping into the tow. He sees me, stops and says he’d like to reconnect breach. Piper, Textron Aviation, FlightSafety, Cirrus, me with one of his new charges. I turn, curious, and Dassault, Gulfstream, NetJets, CAE, Avfuel, Duncan, there stands Michael, smiling. I learned that he was Tecnam, VistaJet, PlaneSense and Universal Avionics graduating from Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute with are among the many within the community investing a mechanical engineering degree and that, thanks to an- their time, talent, equipment and capital to help fight other former neighbor, he was interning at Safe Flight. the pandemic even as the crisis wreaks havoc to bottom He started working at the company full-time a few lines and shreds payrolls. We salute and thank them all. months later. So, to my quiet satisfaction, the former So I’ve got answers to the “Guess what . . . ?” question kid from up the street became an aviation colleague. as applied to the Lambton brothers and those like them. During the 2018 NBAA convention, I encountered What will they become? Heroes. What will they Michael again at Safe Flight’s exhibit. He was there to do? Use their skills, intelligence and focus to save the demonstrate a synthetic clutch servo—think digital world, one person at a time. c autothrottle with tactile stops—that he had helped in- vent. His name was on a patent, I learned, for the sec- William Garvey is Editor-in-Chief of Business & Commercial Aviation

12 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MAY 4-17, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST COMMENTARY COMMENTARY INSIDE BUSINESS AVIATION AIRLINE INTEL WILLIAM GARVEY JENS FLOTTAU

HERE’S A GAME EVERYBODY PLAYS ond time since joining the company. And just recently, CHRISTIAN SCHERER, AIRBUS CHIEF for the MAX. And industry sources say there is more to but no one knows the ending for, oh, 25 his work came to my attention again. commercial officer, spoke with Aviation come —in terms of cancellations and deferrals and pos- years or more: “Guess What They’ll Be- To help ease the urgent shortage of personal protec- Week recently about the role of lessors. sibly in terms of consolidation within the leasing sector come and Do.” tive equipment, Safe Flight started making face shields He was full of praise: “It is a real quid pro itself, as some players are mulling their exit strategies, As a father, friend and neighbor, I’ve played that game for emergency room personnel on the front lines of quo for manufacturers in a crisis. In bad times, lessors according to industry sources. for decades. I well remember the day I was introduced as the battle with COVID-19. But Chairman/CEO Randy can pay back. They are a financial shock absorber for So, beyond the obvious reasons, why the MAX? “Cus- the new assistant coach of my young son’s Little League Greene asked his managers if there was something more OEMs.” In past crises, lessors absorbed the shocks to the tomers smell weakness, and Boeing are the natural guys team. I studied all those tykes’ eager faces looking up they could do. When Michael’s manager posed him that industry by continuing to take delivery of aircraft on or- to go after,” says one senior industry source. “You have at me expectantly and thought, “Where will life take same question, he called his brother, Dr. Matthew Lamb- der when airlines had long been canceling their commit- strong arguments against them because they did things each of you?” The season that followed was unremark- ton, the former Little Leaguer turned emergency room ments. That was particularly the case in the aftermath of wrong,” he adds, referring to the MAX grounding. The able—a fair reflection of my baseball coaching contri- physician at a Rhode Island hospital, who was very the 9/11 attacks, which subsequent long deliv- butions—but now, decades much in the thick of it. Mi- happens to be the one ery delays allow cus- later, I have some answers chael’s question: Is there crisis that is generally No More Shock Absorber tomers to cancel some to my question. They be- Brothers in the Fight something more we can referred to as having orders more easily. came a banker, songwriter, provide? “Ohhh, yeah!” the most similarities Lessors cannot help OEMs in this crisis But the story is a investigator, choir director Lifesaving four-way split was Matt’s instant re- to the novel corona- little more nuanced. and soldier, among other sponse. More ventilators. virus pandemic the Boeing sales chief M diverse careers. Each one And so the young air- industry is experienc- Ihssane Mounir told a surprise. And the game craft systems engineer ing right now. Aviation Week in Feb- continues. began researching medi- Of course, Scherer’s ruary: “As an industry,

Over the years, I got LESLEY LAMBTON. INSET: SAFE FLIGHT cal technology and came comments predate the we have probably sold to learn that, in extreme to see one of those kids’ full-scale impact that too many aircraft to faces quite a lot because situations, ventilators could COVID-19 has had on lessors. Collectively, Matt Lambton became be divided or “split” for air/ aviation. And a few we have to rebalance my son’s best friend. They oxygen delivery to multiple weeks into the timeline the content. And we were inseparable and es- patients. At his brother’s it is becoming clear have been working sentially lived in each oth- request, Matt overnighted that for lessors, 9/11 very aggressively on er’s houses. As a result, our ventilator parts for siz- and COVID-19 are ac- this strategy over the families grew quite friendly ing and Michael came up tually not similar at all. past 12 months.” Be- and familiar. It turned out with a splitter design that In other words, lessors AERCAP sides, Boeing is not that Matt had a broth- would enable a single ven- are not the “shock absorber” they once were. going to produce nearly as many MAXs as previous- er, Michael, a really good Michael (left) and Matthew Lambton. tilator to service one, two, There is a relatively simple reason for this: The busi- ly planned anytime soon. Airlines simply cannot take kid. But he was a couple of years Matt’s junior, which three or four patients simultaneously. A team formed ness model of leasing aircraft to airlines is based on the them, either from Boeing directly or through lessors as among grade schoolers counted as a full generation quickly to devise a production process using Safe Flight’s assumption that not all airlines will suffer at the same intermediaries. The company had planned to increase behind. As such, he never became a regular visitor to 3D printer and to ensure quality fabrication and material time. If one airline in a specific region is going through production to 57 aircraft per month, but analysts ex- our place. But thanks to our family ties, we were aware traceability. Once fast-track-approved by the feds, the a rough period, aircraft can go to an operator in another pect only a little more than half that output for the of his doings as he advanced through childhood and company planned to begin shipping devices immediately region. That is what has made the aviation industry so near-to-medium term. adolescence. However, once our kids were grown and and hoped licensees would do the same in quantity. attractive for investors. Unlike real estate, aircraft can Like Airbus, Boeing cannot afford to lose marquee gone, we moved to another state and lost touch. It is said that crisis speeds ingenuity. The elapsed be moved from one place to another and are generally names among its customers in the leasing industry. It Fast forward to the 2017 National Business Aviation time from Greene’s request for “something more” to in high demand—unless they have four engines. will therefore always have an incentive to agree to some Association (NBAA) Regional Forum at Westchester product selection and the Quad/Vent Splitter’s final That model is not viable in the situation the industry concessions. County Airport. Matt Greene, then head of market- design was roughly 1.5 days. is currently experiencing, one where all customers suf- Fortunately for the OEMs, lessors also do not really ing (now president) at nearby Safe Flight Instrument And here’s the thing, Safe Flight is just one of fer simultaneously. Suddenly aircraft can no longer be have an interest in many outright cancellations. Defer- Corp., is walking past me with several young men in many business aviation companies stepping into the moved around. As a result of the pandemic, lessors are rals, even for longer periods, are the much preferable op- tow. He sees me, stops and says he’d like to reconnect breach. Piper, Textron Aviation, FlightSafety, Cirrus, now behaving in the same way that airlines did nearly tion, as they ensure lessors will remain players in what me with one of his new charges. I turn, curious, and Dassault, Gulfstream, NetJets, CAE, Avfuel, Duncan, 20 years ago, deferring or canceling orders wherever will hopefully become a sizable market in due course. there stands Michael, smiling. I learned that he was Tecnam, VistaJet, PlaneSense and Universal Avionics they feel they must and have the opportunity to do so. The fact that near-term slots are canceled merely shows graduating from Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute with are among the many within the community investing Due to the fact that not all deals and new agreements how deep the crisis is. a mechanical engineering degree and that, thanks to an- their time, talent, equipment and capital to help fight in the industry are in the public domain yet, any judg- Long-term deferrals carry their own risk, however. other former neighbor, he was interning at Safe Flight. the pandemic even as the crisis wreaks havoc to bottom ment about trends has to be made with caution. None- Demand patterns can change over time, as can the com- He started working at the company full-time a few lines and shreds payrolls. We salute and thank them all. theless, it is striking that the Boeing 737 MAX appears petitive landscape. Suppose a large part of a lessor’s months later. So, to my quiet satisfaction, the former So I’ve got answers to the “Guess what . . . ?” question to be particularly vulnerable: Avolon canceled com- portfolio for A320neos were to be deferred by several kid from up the street became an aviation colleague. as applied to the Lambton brothers and those like them. mitments for 75 aircraft; GECAS removed 69 from its years. That fleet could lose residual value in the long During the 2018 NBAA convention, I encountered What will they become? Heroes. What will they orderbook, even though that also means fewer CFM In- term if Boeing ultimately finds the money to develop a Michael again at Safe Flight’s exhibit. He was there to do? Use their skills, intelligence and focus to save the ternational engines will be built; CDB Aviation scrapped new narrowbody—a development almost everyone in demonstrate a synthetic clutch servo—think digital world, one person at a time. c 29 orders; and Alafco is in the process of terminating the industry agrees should happen sooner rather than autothrottle with tactile stops—that he had helped in- a commitment for 40. These four customers alone rep- later. But these are luxury issues, given the extraordi- vent. His name was on a patent, I learned, for the sec- William Garvey is Editor-in-Chief of Business & Commercial Aviation resent around 20% of the precrisis direct lessor orders nary crisis the sector is going through now. c

12 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MAY 4-17, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MAY 4-17, 2020 13 SPACE > U.S. ISS lab alarm p. 16 Osiris-Rex trials p. 17 CREW DRAGON DEBUTS > DURATION OF DEMO-2 UP IN THE AIR > BOEING REPEATING UNCREWED FLIGHT

Irene Klotz Cape Canaveral NASA HAS FACED MANY FORMIDABLE

COMMERCIAL challenges in a decade-long quest CREW to restore U.S. human orbital space- COUNTDOWN flight, so it may have been better prepared than other agencies to face widespread travel bans, workplace shutdowns, health issues and other quagmires posed by the ongoing coronavirus COVID-19 pandemic. SPACEX But confident in its ability to complete outstanding In September 2014, NASA narrowed the field of Commer- work, NASA announced a target launch date of May 27 cial Crew contenders to Boeing and SpaceX, awarding the for a flight test to the International Space Station (ISS) companies $4.2 billion and $2.6 billion, respectively, for flight by two U.S. astronauts aboard a SpaceX Crew Dragon tests and up to six operational crew-rotation missions. The capsule flying from Florida. goal was to have one or both of the companies transport crew The launch, scheduled for 4:32 p.m. from Kennedy Space to the ISS in 2017, but funding shortfalls and technical issues Center Launch Complex 39A, will be the first human or- delayed both programs. bital space launch from the U.S. since the space shuttle Despite contrasting cultures and a 38% difference in NASA Atlantis touched down at the Florida spaceport on July 21, funding, Boeing and SpaceX have been neck and neck in a 2011, closing out the 135th and final space shuttle mission. low-profile race to be the first to launch NASA astronauts. The return of Atlantis marked the start of U.S. depen- SpaceX successfully flew an uncrewed Dragon 2 mission dence on Russia to ferry crews to the ISS, a 15-nation orbit- to the ISS in March 2019, then lost the capsule during al laboratory that has been continuously staffed by rotating preparations for a static test fire of the launch abort sys- teams of astronauts and cosmonauts since Nov. 2, 2000. tem a month later. As the station prepares to mark 20 years of human Software problems precluded Boeing’s uncrewed CST- presence in orbit, NASA is in the homestretch of launch- 100 Starliner from docking with the ISS during its orbital ing astronauts from U.S. soil—while testing a new busi - debut last December, a test that is scheduled to be repeated ness model for human space exploration that it intends this fall. Both Boeing and SpaceX have been bedeviled by to expand for travel to the Moon as well. “We are at the parachute development and testing. cusp of making our Commercial Crew dreams a reality,” SpaceX is providing Dragon’s ride to orbit, so Falcon 9 says Douglas Loverro, NASA associate administrator for issues have migrated onto NASA’s radar screen as well. human exploration and operations. For example, NASA announced a launch date for SpaceX’s NASA kicked off its Commercial Crew partnership Demo-2 mission, which will carry astronauts Robert program in 2010 with the goal of financially and techni- Behnken and Douglas Hurley, only after it was satisfied cally supporting private enterprise initiatives to develop with SpaceX’s explanation for a March 18 Falcon 9 prema- human space transportation systems. The idea was that ture engine shutdown. NASA would become one customer among many, buying Residual cleaning fluid trapped inside a sensor ignited, flight services, similar to how it contracts with SpaceX, prompting a cutoff of the Merlin 1D engine toward the end Northrop Grumman and Sierra Nevada Corp. for ISS car- of the first-stage burn, SpaceX disclosed on April 22. The go supply runs. booster’s eight other engines were able to successfully deliver

14 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MAY 4-17, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST SPACE > U.S. ISS lab alarm p. 16 Osiris-Rex trials p. 17

for early May. Testing was delayed by a March 24 accident that resulted in the loss of a Crew Dragon test article, which became unstable as it was hoisted into the air by a helicopter. CREW SpaceX on April 24 completed a successful static test fire of the Falcon 9 rocket that will launch Behnken and Hurley on the Demo-2 mission. Outstanding Crew Dragon certification products include verification closure notices, variances and hazard reports, DRAGON NASA said, adding that specific items are proprietary. Ahead of the FRR, NASA and SpaceX will hold Opera- tions, Stage Operations, Launch and Flight Test readiness reviews. Multiple NASA executives sign the Certification of DEBUTS Flight Readiness after the FRR, with senior approval coming from Loverro, a seasoned national security and space policy guru recruited to NASA six months ago. Oversight > DURATION OF DEMO-2 UP IN THE AIR of Demo-2 will be his first human spaceflight. NASA has yet to decide how long the Demo-2 mission will > BOEING REPEATING UNCREWED FLIGHT last. While operational Crew Dragon capsules will have 270- day orbital lifetimes, the spacecraft being used for SpaceX’s final Commercial Crew flight test can stay docked at the ISS Irene Klotz Cape Canaveral for up to about 120 days. Behnken and Hurley will transfer to the ongoing Expe- NASA HAS FACED MANY FORMIDABLE dition 63 crew as flight engineers, but the assignment is

COMMERCIAL challenges in a decade-long quest temporary. Staying longer would ease the ISS staffing short- CREW to restore U.S. human orbital space- fall—Expedition 63 is composed of just three crewmembers, COUNTDOWN half the usual number. But bringing Behnken and Hurley flight, so it may have been better home to complete the Demo-2 mission means NASA can prepared than other agencies to move on with the certification process needed for SpaceX face widespread travel bans, workplace shut- to begin operational missions. The agency is counting on the Expedition 64 crew to in- downs, health issues and other quagmires posed clude astronauts launching on SpaceX’s Crew-1 flight later by the ongoing coronavirus COVID-19 pandemic. this year. NASA remains in negotiations for an additional SPACEX seat for a U.S. astronaut aboard a Russian Soyuz capsule. But confident in its ability to complete outstanding In September 2014, NASA narrowed the field of Commer- NASA astronauts Robert Behnken (left) and Douglas Expedition 63 Commander Chris Cassidy, who arrived at work, NASA announced a target launch date of May 27 cial Crew contenders to Boeing and SpaceX, awarding the Hurley are poised to break the nine-year hiatus in U.S. the ISS on April 9 along with cosmonauts Ivan Vagner and for a flight test to the International Space Station (ISS) companies $4.2 billion and $2.6 billion, respectively, for flight human orbital flight. Anatoly Ivanishin, took NASA’s last paid ride on a Soyuz. by two U.S. astronauts aboard a SpaceX Crew Dragon tests and up to six operational crew-rotation missions. The Cassidy’s backup, astronaut Stephen Bowen, has returned capsule flying from Florida. goal was to have one or both of the companies transport crew the payload—a sixth batch of 60 SpaceX Starlink satellites— to the U.S., and the agency currently has no astronauts in The launch, scheduled for 4:32 p.m. from Kennedy Space to the ISS in 2017, but funding shortfalls and technical issues into its intended orbit. training in Russia, says NASA spokeswoman Brandi Dean. Center Launch Complex 39A, will be the first human or- delayed both programs. Boeing’s ride to orbit for the Starliner capsule—United “Several Commercial Crew astronauts are in training for bital space launch from the U.S. since the space shuttle Despite contrasting cultures and a 38% difference in NASA Launch Alliance’s Atlas V—has received similar scrutiny, long-duration station missions,” she wrote in an email to Avi- Atlantis touched down at the Florida spaceport on July 21, funding, Boeing and SpaceX have been neck and neck in a though it has had a longer and smoother ride during its 83-flight ation Week. “No other official assignments have been made.” 2011, closing out the 135th and final space shuttle mission. low-profile race to be the first to launch NASA astronauts. history than SpaceX’s Falcon 9. The Falcon 9, which first flew NASA on March 31 added astronaut Shannon Walker The return of Atlantis marked the start of U.S. depen- SpaceX successfully flew an uncrewed Dragon 2 mission on June 4, 2010, made its 84th flight on April 22, surpassing and Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency astronaut Soichi dence on Russia to ferry crews to the ISS, a 15-nation orbit- to the ISS in March 2019, then lost the capsule during the Atlas V for the most flights of any operational U.S. booster. Noguchi to the SpaceX Crew-1 mission. NASA astronauts al laboratory that has been continuously staffed by rotating preparations for a static test fire of the launch abort sys- The Falcon 9 flight record includes two premature main Michael Hopkins and Victor Glover have been training for teams of astronauts and cosmonauts since Nov. 2, 2000. tem a month later. engine shutdowns, neither of which affected the primary the flight, which includes a long-duration stay on the ISS, As the station prepares to mark 20 years of human Software problems precluded Boeing’s uncrewed CST- mission, one failed cargo run to the ISS, and one preflight since August 2018. presence in orbit, NASA is in the homestretch of launch- 100 Starliner from docking with the ISS during its orbital launchpad accident that destroyed another rocket and its Meanwhile, Boeing’s operational Starliner missions will not ing astronauts from U.S. soil—while testing a new busi - debut last December, a test that is scheduled to be repeated payload, an Israeli commercial communications satellite. begin until 2021 at the earliest. The Starliner flight-test crew, ness model for human space exploration that it intends this fall. Both Boeing and SpaceX have been bedeviled by The Atlas V, which began flying in 2002, had one issue with now back in line behind another uncrewed mission, includes to expand for travel to the Moon as well. “We are at the parachute development and testing. a Centaur upper stage in 2007, but the satellites were able to Boeing astronaut Chris Ferguson, formerly with NASA. cusp of making our Commercial Crew dreams a reality,” SpaceX is providing Dragon’s ride to orbit, so Falcon 9 maneuver to their intended orbits. The rest of its missions During his last spaceflight, Ferguson and his STS-135 says Douglas Loverro, NASA associate administrator for issues have migrated onto NASA’s radar screen as well. have been completely successful. Though Boeing will repeat crewmates left behind a U.S. flag on the station to be re - human exploration and operations. For example, NASA announced a launch date for SpaceX’s the Starliner’s uncrewed orbital flight test, the December turned by the first crew launching to the station from U.S. NASA kicked off its Commercial Crew partnership Demo-2 mission, which will carry astronauts Robert 2019 launch certified the Atlas V for human spaceflight. soil. That milestone is now within SpaceX’s reach. program in 2010 with the goal of financially and techni- Behnken and Douglas Hurley, only after it was satisfied But NASA later added a second flag to emphasize the im- cally supporting private enterprise initiatives to develop with SpaceX’s explanation for a March 18 Falcon 9 prema- WORK AMID PANDEMIC portance of having two independent U.S. crew transportation human space transportation systems. The idea was that ture engine shutdown. NASA and SpaceX have a full plate of work ahead of a tar- systems to orbit. It is a strategy that so far is the clear winner.c NASA would become one customer among many, buying Residual cleaning fluid trapped inside a sensor ignited, geted May 22 Demo-2 Flight Readiness Review (FRR), which flight services, similar to how it contracts with SpaceX, prompting a cutoff of the Merlin 1D engine toward the end will take place in part virtually and partially at Kennedy due Digital Extra See a timeline of Commercial Crew program Northrop Grumman and Sierra Nevada Corp. for ISS car- of the first-stage burn, SpaceX disclosed on April 22. The to COVID-19 travel restrictions and workplace shutdowns. milestones from 2010 to April 2020: go supply runs. booster’s eight other engines were able to successfully deliver The final test of SpaceX’s Mk. 3 parachutes is scheduled AviationWeek.com/CCTimeline

14 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MAY 4-17, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MAY 4-17, 2020 15 SPACE Panel Sounds Alarm Over ISS National Lab

> NASA CHIEF ECONOMIST NAMED CASIS PROGRAM EXEC > AGENCY REORGANIZES ITS COMMERCIAL PORTFOLIO

Mark Carreau Houston and Irene Klotz Cape Canaveral

fter a damning report by an independent review team, ANASA is revamping its oversight of the Florida-based nonprofit organization that runs the U.S. Na- tional Laboratory programs of the International Space Station (ISS). The ISS National Laboratory is “not a national laboratory in any sense other than its legislative des- ignation,” the report notes. A SpaceX Dragon resupply ship is The 68-page independent review attached to the Earth-facing port of team assessment, titled “A Strategy the space station’s Harmony module. for the Future of the International Space Station National Laboratory and Commercial Low-Earth Orbit erational costs, NASA likely will re- have evolved dramatically in the in- Development,” was initiated by NASA main the primary source of revenue tervening 15 years. There are now en- Administrator Jim Bridenstine last for ISS launch and resupply for the tities using the ISS beyond the scope August and released on April 6. next 5-10 years, whether the ISS Na- originally envisioned for the ISS Na- The report calls for significant tional Laboratory remains hosted on tional Laboratory, as well as compe- changes in NASA’s oversight of the the ISS or, as NASA envisions, aboard tition between NASA and the ISS National Laboratory research and one or more successor commercial or- National Laboratory for crew time,

technology develop- AUBREY GEMIGNANI/NASA bital platforms. critical on-orbit facilities and ‘credit’ ment operations and its A complete transfor- for breakthroughs,” it adds. partner in the program, mation to becoming a The ISS—a $100 billion NASA in- the Center for the Ad- commercial landlord is vestment that costs an estimated vancement of Science likely 10-20 years away, $3 billion annually to operate—also in Space (CASIS.) the panel says. is no longer confronted by underuti- “While the aspira - “Use of the ISS as lization, the panel says. tions for future space a unique resource The report identified four over- commerce expressed through its end of life arching issues with the NASA/CASIS by NASA, CASIS and cannot be considered approach as the ISS National Labora- private sector partici- in isolation from oth- tory evolved: CASIS’ unusual struc- pants reflect a boldness, er NASA objectives, ture and function for a nonprofit, lack the technical, regulatory including research of user community integration by and economic compo- NASA Chief Economist and development for CASIS, poorly managed oversight of long-duration human CASIS by NASA, and poorly defined nents of the equation are Alexander MacDonald uncertain,” the report spaceflight systems, procedures for project and program says. “And the trajectories for those including capabilities for interplan- sponsors entering and exiting use of based in physical and life science pur- etary travel and permanent space the ISS National Laboratory. suits appear mutually exclusive.” habitation,” the report says. “NASA has used CASIS and its The panel, headed by the Univer- The ISS National Laboratory was results mainly for public relations sity of Arizona’s Elizabeth Cantwell, created at a specific time for a spe - and has played an insufficient role in senior vice president for research and cific purpose to address potential driving what CASIS does,” the panel innovation, also notes that although shortfalls in ISS utilization, the panel states in one especially critical con- private sector innovations portend notes. “However, the underlying set clusion. “CASIS has been left to de- greater reductions in launch and op- of expectations and predicted futures fine and redefine success based on a

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Panel Sounds changes in the composition and roles of the nonprofit’s board of directors Alarm Over ISS and executive leadership, including selecting a new chief executive. The National Lab agencies also are organizing a Users Advisory Committee comprising NASA CHIEF ECONOMIST members from organizations that > have formal agreements with NASA, NAMED CASIS PROGRAM EXEC CASIS and other government agen- > AGENCY REORGANIZES ITS cies sponsoring ISS research. COMMERCIAL PORTFOLIO Projects considered for the ISS National Laboratory will be evaluated with greater transparency and by Mark Carreau Houston and multiple external experts, NASA and Irene Klotz Cape Canaveral CASIS say. The station’s U.S. segment was des- fter a damning report by an ignated a U.S. National Laboratory by independent review team, Congress under a 2005 NASA autho- ANASA is revamping its over- rization measure seeking to increase sight of the Florida-based nonprofit utilization by other federal agencies organization that runs the U.S. Na- and the private sector. NASA man- tional Laboratory programs of the aged the lab until 2011 when, under International Space Station (ISS). congressional orders, it entered into The ISS National Laboratory is a cooperative agreement with a non- “not a national laboratory in any profit to manage the effort. sense other than its legislative des- NASA signed an initial $136 mil- ignation,” the report notes. A SpaceX Dragon resupply ship is lion, 10-year agreement with CASIS The 68-page independent review attached to the Earth-facing port of that was extended in 2017 to cover team assessment, titled “A Strategy the space station’s Harmony module. operations through 2024, at a total for the Future of the International cost of $196 million. c Space Station National Laboratory NASA and Commercial Low-Earth Orbit erational costs, NASA likely will re- have evolved dramatically in the in- ‘many voices’ approach from NASA Development,” was initiated by NASA main the primary source of revenue tervening 15 years. There are now en- that has driven inflexible, and poten- Administrator Jim Bridenstine last for ISS launch and resupply for the tities using the ISS beyond the scope tially damaging, board and operational Osiris-Rex Clears One Test August and released on April 6. next 5-10 years, whether the ISS Na- originally envisioned for the ISS Na- behaviors,” the report says. The report calls for significant tional Laboratory remains hosted on tional Laboratory, as well as compe- NASA says it is addressing the and Prepares for June Trial changes in NASA’s oversight of the the ISS or, as NASA envisions, aboard tition between NASA and the ISS issues flagged by the review, includ- National Laboratory research and one or more successor commercial or- National Laboratory for crew time, ing a reorganization of its commercial THE SPACECRAFT COMPLETED A SUCCESSFUL TEST ON APRIL 14 technology develop- AUBREY GEMIGNANI/NASA bital platforms. critical on-orbit facilities and ‘credit’ programs portfolio. > ment operations and its A complete transfor- for breakthroughs,” it adds. “You’ll see us create an organiza- ASTEROID LANDING IS PLANNED FOR AUG. 26 partner in the program, mation to becoming a The ISS—a $100 billion NASA in- tion where we focus all of our com- > the Center for the Ad- commercial landlord is vestment that costs an estimated mercial work under one dedicated vancement of Science likely 10-20 years away, $3 billion annually to operate—also set of leaders,” Douglas Loverro, as- Mark Carreau Houston in Space (CASIS.) the panel says. is no longer confronted by underuti- sociate administrator for human ex- “While the aspira - “Use of the ISS as lization, the panel says. ploration and operations said during siris-Rex, NASA’s first-ever as- Responding to preprogrammed tions for future space a unique resource The report identified four over- an April 20 webinar hosted by the teroid sample-return mission, commands, Osiris-Rex autonomously commerce expressed through its end of life arching issues with the NASA/CASIS American Institute of Aeronautics Ois poised to execute its second departed its 0.6-mi.-high orbit around by NASA, CASIS and cannot be considered approach as the ISS National Labora- and Astronautics. dress rehearsal June 23 in prepara- the 500-m-wide (1,640-ft.) asteroid, private sector partici- in isolation from oth- tory evolved: CASIS’ unusual struc- “Within my office, CASIS was tion for a touchdown in August. descending to its closest point near pants reflect a boldness, er NASA objectives, ture and function for a nonprofit, lack managed separately from our Com- Preliminary data shows that Osiris, the surface since arriving at Bennu the technical, regulatory including research of user community integration by mercial Crew program, which was a $1 billion component of NASA’s New on Dec. 3, 2018. Confirmation that and economic compo- NASA Chief Economist and development for CASIS, poorly managed oversight of managed separately from our Com- Frontiers effort to explore the Solar the “Checkpoint” exercise was a suc- long-duration human CASIS by NASA, and poorly defined nents of the equation are Alexander MacDonald mercial Cargo program, which was System, successfully carried out a cess concluded with the spacecraft uncertain,” the report spaceflight systems, procedures for project and program managed separately, in many cases, 4-hr. series of spacecraft maneuvers ascending back to its orbital perch. says. “And the trajectories for those including capabilities for interplan- sponsors entering and exiting use of from our commercial vehicle develop- and deployments on April 14. The run- The mission was launched on Sept. based in physical and life science pur- etary travel and permanent space the ISS National Laboratory. ment program,” Loverro says. “We’re through was executed to practice the 8, 2016, with Osiris-Rex outfitted to suits appear mutually exclusive.” habitation,” the report says. “NASA has used CASIS and its putting those all together so we can critical early stages of operations attempt up to three brief sample- The panel, headed by the Univer- The ISS National Laboratory was results mainly for public relations make sure that they are synergistic.” planned for late August, when Osiris- collection attempts before departing sity of Arizona’s Elizabeth Cantwell, created at a specific time for a spe - and has played an insufficient role in NASA also appointed its chief Rex is to land briefly on the asteroid for Earth in March 2021. senior vice president for research and cific purpose to address potential driving what CASIS does,” the panel economist, Alexander MacDonald, Bennu to gather up to 4.4 lb. of sur- It is designed for the spacecraft innovation, also notes that although shortfalls in ISS utilization, the panel states in one especially critical con- to serve as program executive for face material. Bennu is a carbon-rich, to drop off its sample-return con- private sector innovations portend notes. “However, the underlying set clusion. “CASIS has been left to de- CASIS. boulder-strewn primitive Solar Sys- tainer as Osiris-Rex passes close to greater reductions in launch and op- of expectations and predicted futures fine and redefine success based on a NASA and CASIS agreed to make tem body 140 million mi. from Earth. Earth. That container is set to reenter

16 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MAY 4-17, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MAY 4-17, 2020 17 SPACE

Earth’s atmosphere for recovery on Sept. 24, 2023, in a parachute-assisted descent onto the U.S. Army’s Utah Test and Training Range. The science team, led by University of Arizona Principal Investigator Dante Lauretta, is hopeful that laboratory analysis of the pristine asteroid material will help to further explain the Solar System’s 4.6 billion- year-old planet-forming era—including the role that asteroids played in the distribution of water ice and organics, the building blocks of life. Also designated a near-Earth object, Bennu is of interest because of a one-in-800 chance it could collide with the Earth in 2182, possibly causing damage on a regional scale. The April 14 Checkpoint exercise was the first of two planned rehears- als prior to the actual touchdown, now scheduled for Aug. 26 at a pre - designated landing zone around

Nightingale, a 66-ft.-wide impact NASA crater near Bennu’s north pole. Osiris-Rex departed its “safe home” orbit around Bennu with an reconfiguration also extended the This image of the asteroid Bennu attitude control system maneuver. It Tagsam along the spacecraft’s center is overlaid with a graphic of the took 13 min. for data confirming the of gravity so that it could make only Osiris-Rex spacecraft to show the start of the drill to reach Earth, add- brief direct contact with the surface. scale of the sample-collection site ing to the suspense. After the 3-sec. checkpoint thruster “This is a bit of a nail-biter,” Lauret- maneuver, Osiris-Rex continued its on the asteroid. ta wrote on Twitter. His comment descent toward Bennu’s surface for announced the selection of Nightin- was made during a temporary loss of another 9 min., reaching an altitude gale as the primary sample-collection signal lock between Osiris-Rex and of about 243 ft., the closest the space- site on Dec. 12, 2019. NASA’s Deep Space Network (DSN), craft has come to the asteroid yet. At the same time as the NASA as Osiris-Rex began its slow descent. That was followed by a back-away announcement, the Japan Aero - NASA’s DSN is the global network of maneuver to begin the ascent toward space Exploration Agency’s (JAXA) ground stations used by NASA for the probe’s initial orbital position, in- Hayabusa2 sample-return mission two-way communications with plane- cluding reconfiguration of the solar (launched on Dec. 3, 2014) to the tary science mission spacecraft. arrays to their original orientation larger asteroid Ryugu was starting to Next, the probe extended its 11-ft.- and the issuance of commands for make its way back to Earth after gath- long robotic arm, the Touch-and-Go the Tagsam to reassume its stowed ering surface and subsurface samples Sample Acquisition Mechanism (Tag- position. in 2019. The Japanese spacecraft is sam). The device is to release a blast Throughout much of the trial, to drop off a sample container as it of nitrogen at the landing site in late spacecraft sensors also gathered passes by Earth in December 2020 August to kick up pieces of Bennu thermal and mineral composition during a parachute-assisted descent into a sample-collection container. data from Bennu’s surface. into remote Australia for recovery. The spacecraft then slewed into A second rehearsal is planned Scientists involved in Osiris-Rex position to begin gathering images for June 23. It will take Osiris-Rex and Hayabusa2 plan to exchange sam- of the surface for autonomous navi- through the same checkpoint deploy- ple materials for scientific analysis. gation. The probe’s natural feature ments and maneuvers to a third crit- Much of the checkpoint rehearsal tracking technology draws on soft- ical descent milestone, the “Match- was carried out in telework fashion ware guidance systems and compares point” maneuver. Matchpoint is to due to the coronavirus pandemic. the real-time descent imagery with occur at about 164 ft. over Bennu’s The work was led by personnel from images stored in an onboard cata- terrain, synchronizing the space - NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Cen- log of previously imaged landmarks. craft’s descent with the rotation of ter, Lockheed Martin Space Systems’ During its descent to the 410-ft.-alti- the asteroid so it can navigate accu- control center in Denver and the tude checkpoint maneuver level, the rately to its constrained landing zone University of Arizona. Only a limit- probe’s solar arrays were positioned at Nightingale. ed number of essential personnel— into a “Y-wing” configuration intended After a lengthy global reconnais- all taking safety precautions due to to prevent their contact with Bennu’s sance of Bennu’s surprisingly rocky COVID-19—were at each of the sites surface during the actual landing. The surface, the Osiris-Rex mission team during the drill. c

18 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MAY 4-17, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST SPACE

Nightingale, a 66-ft.-wide impact NASA crater near Bennu’s north pole. Osiris-Rex departed its “safe home” orbit around Bennu with an reconfiguration also extended the This image of the asteroid Bennu attitude control system maneuver. It Tagsam along the spacecraft’s center is overlaid with a graphic of the took 13 min. for data confirming the of gravity so that it could make only Osiris-Rex spacecraft to show the start of the drill to reach Earth, add- brief direct contact with the surface. scale of the sample-collection site ing to the suspense. After the 3-sec. checkpoint thruster “This is a bit of a nail-biter,” Lauret- maneuver, Osiris-Rex continued its on the asteroid. ta wrote on Twitter. His comment descent toward Bennu’s surface for announced the selection of Nightin- was made during a temporary loss of another 9 min., reaching an altitude gale as the primary sample-collection signal lock between Osiris-Rex and of about 243 ft., the closest the space- site on Dec. 12, 2019. NASA’s Deep Space Network (DSN), craft has come to the asteroid yet. At the same time as the NASA as Osiris-Rex began its slow descent. That was followed by a back-away announcement, the Japan Aero - NASA’s DSN is the global network of maneuver to begin the ascent toward space Exploration Agency’s (JAXA) ground stations used by NASA for the probe’s initial orbital position, in- Hayabusa2 sample-return mission two-way communications with plane- cluding reconfiguration of the solar (launched on Dec. 3, 2014) to the tary science mission spacecraft. arrays to their original orientation larger asteroid Ryugu was starting to Next, the probe extended its 11-ft.- and the issuance of commands for make its way back to Earth after gath- long robotic arm, the Touch-and-Go the Tagsam to reassume its stowed ering surface and subsurface samples Sample Acquisition Mechanism (Tag- position. in 2019. The Japanese spacecraft is sam). The device is to release a blast Throughout much of the trial, to drop off a sample container as it of nitrogen at the landing site in late spacecraft sensors also gathered passes by Earth in December 2020 August to kick up pieces of Bennu thermal and mineral composition during a parachute-assisted descent ● into a sample-collection container. data from Bennu’s surface. into remote Australia for recovery. The spacecraft then slewed into A second rehearsal is planned Scientists involved in Osiris-Rex position to begin gathering images for June 23. It will take Osiris-Rex and Hayabusa2 plan to exchange sam- ● of the surface for autonomous navi- through the same checkpoint deploy- ple materials for scientific analysis. gation. The probe’s natural feature ments and maneuvers to a third crit- Much of the checkpoint rehearsal ● tracking technology draws on soft- ical descent milestone, the “Match- was carried out in telework fashion ware guidance systems and compares point” maneuver. Matchpoint is to due to the coronavirus pandemic. the real-time descent imagery with occur at about 164 ft. over Bennu’s The work was led by personnel from images stored in an onboard cata- terrain, synchronizing the space - NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Cen- log of previously imaged landmarks. craft’s descent with the rotation of ter, Lockheed Martin Space Systems’ During its descent to the 410-ft.-alti- the asteroid so it can navigate accu- control center in Denver and the tude checkpoint maneuver level, the rately to its constrained landing zone University of Arizona. Only a limit- probe’s solar arrays were positioned at Nightingale. ed number of essential personnel— into a “Y-wing” configuration intended After a lengthy global reconnais- all taking safety precautions due to to prevent their contact with Bennu’s sance of Bennu’s surprisingly rocky COVID-19—were at each of the sites surface during the actual landing. The surface, the Osiris-Rex mission team during the drill. c

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Bad to Worse

> AIRBUS AND BOEING ANNOUNCE DEEP PRODUCTION CUTS > BOEING TERMINATES EMBRAER TIE-UP BUT REMAINS OPEN TO MITSUBISHI PARTNERSHIP > RECOVERY TO PRE-COVID-19 LEVELS IS EXPECTED TO TAKE SEVERAL YEARS

Jens Flottau Frankfurt, Guy Norris Los Angeles and Sean Broderick and Michael Bruno Washington prominently the planned commercial aircraft joint venture between Boeing lmost exactly 15 years ago, tens coronavirus wreaks havoc on com- and Embraer, Boeing Brasil-Commer- of thousands of spectators po- mercial aviation. Many airlines are cial. There will continue to be two ma- Asitioned themselves around the on the brink of collapse, as are many jor players. A third, Embraer, is trying fences of Toulouse’s Blagnac Airport. suppliers. And the financial pressures to compete in its own niche against the On April 27, 2005, the Airbus A380 on the OEMs and large suppliers are giants while new rivals such as Mitsu- took off for its very first flight, her- so intense that they have no choice but bishi slowly appear on the horizon. alding what many believed was going to focus on their own survival rather The only bit of good news is that to be a new era of flight. Fast forward than considering customer financing while air transport is about to reach to April 2020: Almost the entire fleet or supplier support at any scale. rock bottom in some of the hardest-hit of A380s is grounded, as are tens of The COVID-19 pandemic is reshap- markets, it is on a slow upward slope thousands of smaller aircraft. And ing aerospace and, about two months in others, particularly in Asia where Airbus CEO Guillaume Faury wrote in into the sector’s worst crisis ever, its some airlines have cautiously begun an internal memo that “the survival of future shape is becoming clearer. The to add flights. Unfortunately for the Airbus is in question.” industry is becoming much small- aerospace side of the business, the full That such a message would come er than it was just a short while ago. effect of the declines is only beginning from Airbus, arguably the soundest Bankruptcies are almost guaranteed to filter through and will dominate commercial aircraft manufacturer in and will not be limited to smaller, industry activity for the foreseeable terms of finances and strategic po- weaker firms. State bailouts and the future, with analysts generally not ex- sitioning, was unthinkable just two rising influence of governments will pecting traffic to recover to precrisis months ago. But similar memos could soon be commonplace. Research and levels before 2023. have been issued by any of his col- development has slowed or is on hold. Airbus had already announced a leagues or competitors as the novel And transactions are collapsing, most 30% across-the-board production cut

20 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MAY 4-17, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST COMMERCIAL AVIATION > Embraer’s Millennium airlifter p. 23 Civil engine outlook p. 24 European airlines p. 26 737 MAX return timeline p. 28 ADS-B and COVID-19 p. 30

“We will take a measured approach on a new airplane now because of all to the 777X rate ramp, as we will look the market and product ramifications to minimize the amount of change associated with this [market] change,” incorporation work by managing the he says. “It is going to take us a while number of aircraft produced prior to to sort that out.” entry into service,” says Boeing CEO Calhoun also indicates the potential Bad to Worse Dave Calhoun. The reduced rate un- shift to smaller-capacity aircraft in a derlines the drastic change in fortunes market recovering from the pandemic for Boeing. which only three years ago may have removed some of the urgen- > AIRBUS AND BOEING ANNOUNCE DEEP PRODUCTION CUTS provisionally planned to produce seven cy to develop a new product family, as > BOEING TERMINATES EMBRAER TIE-UP BUT REMAINS 777s per month in 2020, almost half of well as breathed new life into the 737 OPEN TO MITSUBISHI PARTNERSHIP which were to be 777Xs. MAX sector. “In some ways, if airplane The production reduction for the loads want to get smaller as a result of > RECOVERY TO PRE-COVID-19 LEVELS IS EXPECTED 787 is more precipitous, at least in the a smaller set of passengers flying on TO TAKE SEVERAL YEARS midterm, with the rate dropping to 10 them in the next several years, it might per month later this year from 14. The actually play to us,” he says. “We have previous plan would have seen a shal- a robust [737] backlog with it.” lower cut, from 12 later this year to 10 “Robust” could not be used to de- in early 2021. scribe Boeing’s finances, but the pic- Production of the 737 MAX is to re- ture is beginning to look much less start this quarter and increase gradu- bleak then it did only weeks ago. The ally to 31 aircraft per month sometime OEM was negotiating with the Trump in 2021, with further increases based administration about receiving U.S. on demand. Boeing was producing 52 bailout funds, but company leaders be- MAXs monthly and preparing to ramp lieve they can maintain investor-grade up to 57 when all MAXs were ground- ratings, and they see a sustainable fi- ed in March 2019 following two fatal nancial path where its commercial accidents in less than five months. It aircraft business returns to growth in cut production to 42 in April 2019. In 3-5 years. January 2020, it paused production, Getting there, however, will require following months of missed projections billions of dollars more in debt financ- Commercial aviation faces about when the FAA would approve ing—although no longer from the U.S. much pain and turbulence changes ordered after the accident government, Boeing said April 30—as in the years ahead as it tries probes and related reviews. well as cutting its workforce at least to deal with the fallout from the The pandemic has also slowed 10%, or 16,000 employees. planning for Boeing’s next new air- “We are doing everything in the COVID-19 pandemic. craft project. In January, the OEM next six months on the liquidity was already transitioning away from front that we believe is necessary to NEXT143/GETTY IMAGES Jens Flottau Frankfurt, Guy Norris Los Angeles and the long-running two-family new mid- keep us operating and keep us safe,” Sean Broderick and Michael Bruno Washington prominently the planned commercial on April 8. Now Boeing, too, is scaling market airplane (NMA) initiative to Calhoun says. Private-sector financing aircraft joint venture between Boeing back big-time in various ways: cutting a revised 757-size concept. Although has opened again, thanks to the new lmost exactly 15 years ago, tens coronavirus wreaks havoc on com- and Embraer, Boeing Brasil-Commer- into production rates and curtailing of thousands of spectators po- mercial aviation. Many airlines are cial. There will continue to be two ma- the pace of development programs Airbus Key Metrics Asitioned themselves around the on the brink of collapse, as are many jor players. A third, Embraer, is trying and future projects. First Quarter First Quarter Change fences of Toulouse’s Blagnac Airport. suppliers. And the financial pressures to compete in its own niche against the The combined production rate for 2020 2019 Restated* On April 27, 2005, the Airbus A380 on the OEMs and large suppliers are giants while new rivals such as Mitsu- the Boeing 777-300ER/F and 777X is ORDER INTAKE (NET) 290 (58) N/A took off for its very first flight, her- so intense that they have no choice but bishi slowly appear on the horizon. set to reduce to three per month in BACKLOG (UNITS) 7,650 7,357 4.0% alding what many believed was going to focus on their own survival rather The only bit of good news is that 2021, while the Boeing 787 rate will be DELIVERIES (UNITS) 122 162 -24.7% to be a new era of flight. Fast forward than considering customer financing while air transport is about to reach cut to 10 per month later this year and to April 2020: Almost the entire fleet or supplier support at any scale. rock bottom in some of the hardest-hit shrink to seven per month by 2022. REVENUES** €7,569 €9,697 -21.9% of A380s is grounded, as are tens of The COVID-19 pandemic is reshap- markets, it is on a slow upward slope The 777 slowdown cuts the official EBIT** €57 €319 -82.1% thousands of smaller aircraft. And ing aerospace and, about two months in others, particularly in Asia where production rate in half, to around 2.5 *2019 financial figures restated to reflect the adoption of a new segment reporting structure for “Transversal” activities Airbus CEO Guillaume Faury wrote in into the sector’s worst crisis ever, its some airlines have cautiously begun later this year from the current five **In € million (€1 = $1.08) Source: Airbus an internal memo that “the survival of future shape is becoming clearer. The to add flights. Unfortunately for the per month, although the actual rate Airbus is in question.” industry is becoming much small- aerospace side of the business, the full cut is cushioned because Boeing al- Calhoun emphasizes that the company CARES Act in response to COVID-19, That such a message would come er than it was just a short while ago. effect of the declines is only beginning ready accounts for around 1.5 “blank” is “not out of the product development as well as the Fed’s separate-but-re- from Airbus, arguably the soundest Bankruptcies are almost guaranteed to filter through and will dominate positions per month in anticipation of business,” he cautions that “it’ll be a lit- lated corporate-backstop program. commercial aircraft manufacturer in and will not be limited to smaller, industry activity for the foreseeable the production switch to the 777X. The tle while before we announce a big new Boeing is examining all options and terms of finances and strategic po- weaker firms. State bailouts and the future, with analysts generally not ex- gradual introduction of the initial 777X airframe.” The advanced engineering a mix of sources of financing—includ- sitioning, was unthinkable just two rising influence of governments will pecting traffic to recover to precrisis model—the 777-9—will also be slowed and manufacturing lessons learned ing Treasury Department funding via months ago. But similar memos could soon be commonplace. Research and levels before 2023. under the new rate plans and will bring from the NMA program will be used CARES that could entail giving the have been issued by any of his col- development has slowed or is on hold. Airbus had already announced a the combined 777/777X production tal- in whatever program follows. “[But] government a stake in the company. leagues or competitors as the novel And transactions are collapsing, most 30% across-the-board production cut ly to three per month in 2021. we will not try to drop a point design “I think things have changed a bit

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for the better since maybe a month ton state and South Carolina, where if they want to—and if they believe ago.” Calhoun adds. “But at the same Boeing Commercial Aircraft work is they’ve got some innovative capabil- time, we have not yet made choices, centralized, as well as in Dallas-Fort ities—[could] move into more of our and I don’t want to predict outcomes Worth and other Boeing Global Ser- kind of world,” Calhoun says. on that front.” vices sites. Cuts should be shallower Potential partnerships with com- Boeing stunned Wall Street and at Boeing Defense and Space, which is panies such as Mitsubishi would help the aerospace world in March when likely to become the dominant division with the “effect it has on globalizing it openly asked for at least $60 billion for years to come while commercial our company,” Calhoun adds. “Each in federal aid for itself and its suppli- and maintenance, repair and overhaul and every deal has to be struck at the ers. Following the latest revelations, businesses contract, the CEO notes. right economic levels and it has to be though, Boeing’s stock price closed up Boeing reported first-quarter rev- struck in a fair way,” he says. “And in almost 6%, with analysts and observers enue of $16.9 billion, down 26% from each of those cases, there’ll be con- noting with relief both that the quar- the same quarter of last year. Loss per ditions, and both parties will have to terly results were not worse and that share was $1.11 on regular accounting meet those conditions.” Boeing sees a sustainable path forward. rules, compared with a $3.75 gain the One might interpret that as a hint The OEM burned through $4.7 billion in first quarter of 2019, and a so-called about why Boeing thinks it had the the recent quarter, better than analysts core business loss per share of $1.70 right to terminate the planned Boeing ei erci Aire ructi tes MA

Ser-than-anned N hange t urrent rate at this tie rdutin rate ra ing rdutin restart Gradua inrease t 1 er nth during Current 2020* 2022 Current 2021 2021 ith urther Current Future Current Future Gradua inreases t rresnd ith aret deand

5,000

reiousl announced a production rate transition from month to month in late and to month in earl . Source: Boeing

expected, and had $15.5 billion of cash versus $3.16 gain. Those came from a Brasil-Commercial joint venture with or equivalents available as of March 31. GAAP (generally accepted accounting Embraer, which began a public fight “Boeing’s . . . first-quarter cash- principles) loss of $641 million against between the companies. Source:burn Boeingseems to be a relief, and it ap - $2.15 billion in earnings the same period “[Embraer] believes strongly that pears increasingly possible that the last year. Boeing has wrongfully terminated company might avoid raising capital Total debt was $38.9 billion as of the the Master Transaction Agreement from the government, or at least the end of March, up from $27.3 billion at (MTA),” the Brazilian company says. Treasury,” JP Morgan analysts said. the beginning of the year, primarily due “[And] that it has manufactured false “Nevertheless, the path forward for to the drawdown of a new $13.8 billion claims as a pretext to seek to avoid its Boeing remains quite challenging, term loan facility during the quarter. commitments to close the transaction and while the production rate outlook While Boeing appears to have de- and pay Embraer the $4.2 billion pur- in today’s release is not a big surprise, termined that it can no longer afford chase price. . . . Boeing has engaged in it suggests substantially lower activity the deal to acquire Embraer’s com- a systematic pattern of delay and re- for some time.” mercial aircraft division, it is already peated violations of the MTA because In turn, Boeing likely will have to talking about new partnerships. This of its unwillingness to complete the rely on layoffs—i.e., involuntary sepa- time it is with Embraer’s (future) rival transaction in light of its own finan- rations—to achieve its 10% workforce Mitsubishi. “I’m open to any kind of cial condition and 737 MAX and other cuts, Calhoun says. The company will major partnership. They [Mitsubishi] business and reputational problems.” target white-collar jobs over touch la- are in fact incredibly competent, im- Boeing, of course, has a different bor and make deeper cuts in Washing- portant players in the industry who, view. “[Boeing] has worked diligently

22 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MAY 4-17, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST COMMERCIAL AVIATION for the better since maybe a month ton state and South Carolina, where if they want to—and if they believe over more than two years to finalize its Millennium’s Missed Opportunity? ago.” Calhoun adds. “But at the same Boeing Commercial Aircraft work is they’ve got some innovative capabil- transaction with Embraer,” says Marc time, we have not yet made choices, centralized, as well as in Dallas-Fort ities—[could] move into more of our Allen, Boeing’s president of Embraer Tony Osborne London and I don’t want to predict outcomes Worth and other Boeing Global Ser- kind of world,” Calhoun says. partnership and group operations. on that front.” vices sites. Cuts should be shallower Potential partnerships with com- “Over the past several months, we AIRBUS WILL NOT BE THE ONLY VICTOR RESULTING FROM THE TERMINATION Boeing stunned Wall Street and at Boeing Defense and Space, which is panies such as Mitsubishi would help had productive but ultimately unsuc- the aerospace world in March when likely to become the dominant division with the “effect it has on globalizing cessful negotiations about unsatisfied of the tie-up between Boeing and Embraer. In fact, Lockheed Martin may be it openly asked for at least $60 billion for years to come while commercial our company,” Calhoun adds. “Each MTA conditions. We all aimed to re- breathing a small sigh of relief too. in federal aid for itself and its suppli- and maintenance, repair and overhaul and every deal has to be struck at the solve those by the initial termination The proposed C-390 joint venture (JV), 51% owned by Embraer and 49% owned ers. Following the latest revelations, businesses contract, the CEO notes. right economic levels and it has to be date, but it didn’t happen.” by Boeing, could have resulted in a serious competitor to the Lockheed Martin though, Boeing’s stock price closed up Boeing reported first-quarter rev- struck in a fair way,” he says. “And in The collapse is a blow for Boeing C-130J Hercules being assembled in the U.S.—if the innovative twin-jet airlifter had almost 6%, with analysts and observers enue of $16.9 billion, down 26% from each of those cases, there’ll be con- that may have long-term consequenc- found sales traction with the Defense Department. Boeing’s marketing clout would noting with relief both that the quar- the same quarter of last year. Loss per ditions, and both parties will have to es on its ability to compete against have certainly helped the aircraft in the U.S., and a Defense Department contract terly results were not worse and that share was $1.11 on regular accounting meet those conditions.” Airbus and reestablish itself as an Boeing sees a sustainable path forward. rules, compared with a $3.75 gain the One might interpret that as a hint equally competitive force in the nar- would have resulted in additional overseas orders, too. The OEM burned through $4.7 billion in first quarter of 2019, and a so-called about why Boeing thinks it had the rowbody and midsize aircraft market. “The world fleet of medium-sized freighters, with nearly 3,000 aircraft in service the recent quarter, better than analysts core business loss per share of $1.70 right to terminate the planned Boeing It also means a U-turn for Embraer, and average age of 30 years, will likely undergo a renewal process in the coming which will now have to compete as an years,” Embraer stated in its 2019 investor prospectus detailing the C-390 JV. The independent manufacturer, putting it company added that the JV partnership “opens up prospects of new and relevant ei erci Aire ructi tes in an economically much weaker po- markets for the KC-390, such as the North American and European markets, which sition. Airbus is emerging as the big together account for more than half of the global fleet of aircraft in service. winner from the breakup. Regulatory approval for the deal “New market prospects will open up, which may significantly amplify the production and delivery scale of the C-390,” the prospectus said. from the European Commission was still pending, which was a key condi- Without the JV, the C-390 program should, according to Boeing, fall back on a MA tion for the transaction to be complet- teaming agreement signed in 2012 to jointly market the aircraft. Embraer says it has ed. But industry observers say the real not yet discussed this with Boeing. It is unclear whether this teaming deal will remain reason behind Boeing’s decision is that in place if the now public dispute about Boeing’s decision to terminate the Master the current financial pressures are so Ser-than-anned N hange t urrent rate at this tie Transaction Agreement reaches the courts. rdutin rate ra enormous it did not believe it could ing rdutin afford the transaction. Also, it would “The Boeing cooperation agreement represented upside potential, rather than restart have been extremely difficult political- necessity,” says consultant Richard Aboulafia of the Teal Group. “It was always far ly to ask for financial assistance from from clear how the C-390 could get into the [Defense Department] budget, but with Gradua inrease t the U.S. government, cut thousands Boeing it had a chance . . . and the -390’s cost, price and support network would 1 er nth during of jobs and at the same time spend have benefited from Boeing involvement.” Current 2020* 2022 Current 2021 2021 ith urther Current Future Current Future Gradua inreases more than $4 billion for an acquisition Though the JV failure is a setback for the C-390 program, it is far from a body t rresnd ith abroad, as strategically important as blow. Embraer has already demonstrated it can sell and support its military platforms aret deand it may have been. Embraer’s value for Boeing was internationally: The Super Tucano continues to sell as a counterinsurgency platform, 5,000 twofold: One, after Airbus had ac- and the OEM has secured the first export order for the C-390. Portugal plans to quired the C Series program from purchase five C-390s, with the first delivery in 2023. Hungary is showing interest in reiousl announced a production rate transition from month to month in late and to month in earl . Source: Boeing Bombardier and converted it into the the platform as well. Brazil has now taken delivery of two of its planned 28 KC-390s, A220, Boeing felt pressed to react at using them in Brasilia’s battle against the COVID-19 pandemic. c expected, and had $15.5 billion of cash versus $3.16 gain. Those came from a Brasil-Commercial joint venture with the bottom end of the narrowbody or equivalents available as of March 31. GAAP (generally accepted accounting Embraer, which began a public fight market with an aircraft offering the “Boeing’s . . . first-quarter cash- principles) loss of $641 million against between the companies. same economics as the A220. Boeing Source:burn Boeingseems to be a relief, and it ap - $2.15 billion in earnings the same period “[Embraer] believes strongly that was keen to acquire Embraer’s engi- Embraer is on its own for now and While he did not go into potential pears increasingly possible that the last year. Boeing has wrongfully terminated neering capabilities, too, which are needs to decide whether it will look for staff reductions in detail, insiders say company might avoid raising capital Total debt was $38.9 billion as of the the Master Transaction Agreement highly regarded in the industry and another strong partner, which would Airbus is preparing a major cost-sav- from the government, or at least the end of March, up from $27.3 billion at (MTA),” the Brazilian company says. would have been welcome in new air- likely have to be outside of aerospace, ings program that may be similar to Treasury,” JP Morgan analysts said. the beginning of the year, primarily due “[And] that it has manufactured false craft programs such as the NMA. or continue as a broad but small the 2008 “Power 8” project, under “Nevertheless, the path forward for to the drawdown of a new $13.8 billion claims as a pretext to seek to avoid its The lack of a viable product at the aerospace firm. It also has to decide which it cut 10,000 jobs. “We may Boeing remains quite challenging, term loan facility during the quarter. commitments to close the transaction bottom end of the narrowbody mar- whether to reintegrate Yabora Indu- now need to plan for more far-reach- and while the production rate outlook While Boeing appears to have de- and pay Embraer the $4.2 billion pur- ket that can compete at least in part stria Aeronautica, the carved-out for- ing measures,” Faury wrote. “That is in today’s release is not a big surprise, termined that it can no longer afford chase price. . . . Boeing has engaged in of the A220 spectrum is now raising mer commercial aircraft unit, into the because of the sheer magnitude of this it suggests substantially lower activity the deal to acquire Embraer’s com- a systematic pattern of delay and re- even more questions about the tim- group or run it as a separate entity for crisis and its likely duration. . . . We for some time.” mercial aircraft division, it is already peated violations of the MTA because ing and design of Boeing’s next new the time being. are living through one of the largest In turn, Boeing likely will have to talking about new partnerships. This of its unwillingness to complete the aircraft. The manufacturer not only Across the Atlantic, Airbus’ Faury economic shocks in history so must rely on layoffs—i.e., involuntary sepa- time it is with Embraer’s (future) rival transaction in light of its own finan- faces the task of designing an aircraft is also preparing his team for tough consider all options.” rations—to achieve its 10% workforce Mitsubishi. “I’m open to any kind of cial condition and 737 MAX and other that eclipses Airbus’ highly successful times. “The aviation industry will Airbus plans to build 40 narrowbod- cuts, Calhoun says. The company will major partnership. They [Mitsubishi] business and reputational problems.” A321neo/LR/XLR at the top end of the emerge into this new world very much ies per month, down from more than target white-collar jobs over touch la- are in fact incredibly competent, im- Boeing, of course, has a different narrowbody market but also faces that weaker and more vulnerable than we 60, along with two A330/A330neos bor and make deeper cuts in Washing- portant players in the industry who, view. “[Boeing] has worked diligently gap at the bottom. went into it,” Faury wrote in his memo. and six A350s per month. Analysts

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have suggested that Airbus will have Faury says deliveries will be “very opment program will continue “at good to make further cuts of a similar size as low” in the second quarter, after the speed ,” he says. customers continue to defer deliveries. manufacturer was able to hand over In his discussions with airlines, However, the OEM will not decide on 122 aircraft in the fi rst quarter, which Faury observes a preference for small- such changes to its production rates was only partially a ected by the novel er aircraft compared to pre-COVID-19 before June. And if they come, they will coronavirus crisis. Nonetheless, Airbus planning and asserts that Airbus be “on a smaller scale” than previous was unable to deliver 60 completed is well-positioned with its smallest cuts, according to Faury. aircraft in the quarter. “After the sum- narrowbody, the A220, as well as the The airframer plans to spend the mer, we will start delivering aircraft at A321XLR taking on some former wide- next few weeks on an analytical deep a better pace,” he expects. Faury says body missions and the A350. dive into the plans and fi nancial per- the number of undelivered completed Faury expects widebody demand to formance of its customers, both les- aircraft will peak in the third quarter. recover in 2023-25, while the outlook sors and airlines, to be able to better While the short-term focus is on cash for narrowbodies is “not that gloomy.” assess what their short-term behavio r conservation and cutting rates, Faury Airbus reported a €481 million net and long-term strategies will look like. also wants to position Airbus in a way loss for the fi rst quarter on sales of €10.6 The analysis will be “very granular.” that enables it to resume growth quick- billion. That compares to a €40 million Airbus is also trying to assess what ly. “The race will start again; we want net profi t on €12.5 billion in sales the the recovery in traffic will look like to be fast and agile ,” he says. “There is same period a year earlier. The adjust- and is adapting its fi nancial planning a threat of being stuck in the crisis and ed operating profi t was down 49% at accordingly. not being able to compete again.” He €281 million for the quarter. Free cash Notably, Chief Financial Officer anticipates that the single-aisle market flow was a negative €8 billion in the Dominik Asam says, “If we are able will recover faster than the widebody quarter, almost twice the amount in to do what we plan, [government aid] one, but he notes the pace of the recov- the fi rst quarter of 2019. c should not be necessary, given that at ery and the timing “are very di cult the beginning of April we had about to predict.” He indicated that there Teal Group’s Richard Aboulafi a €30 billion [$33 billion] in liquidity re- could be “a very aggressive ramp-up joins Aviation Week editors to discuss sources, which should be ample fund- in single-aisle production” after the fallout from the Boeing-Embraer breakup: ing under the circumstances.” COVID-19 crisis. The A321XLR devel-

production rates forecast for at least the next two years. Second, they must adjust to much lower MRO revenues as Throttling Back work is deferred or, in the worst cases, vanishes altogether as fl eets of older aircraft are prematurely retired by airlines > ALMOST 38,000 COMMERCIAL JET ENGINES ARE desperately consolidating to survive. How long and how deep ON STORED AND PARKED AIRCRAFT this problem will become is up for debate. Assuming commercial air tra c drops 60-70% in 2020, there will be a major de- > ENGINE AFTERMARKET AND NEW PRODUCTION stocking e ect, which could take a few months out of demand, FACE SIMULTANEOUS CUTS according to consultant Richard Aboulafi a of the Teal Group. New-build de- Guy Norris Los Angeles and MichaelBruno Washington mand could decline 40-50%, but the ny listing of the currently parked and stored com- aftermarket could mercial airliner fleet makes for grim reading in plummet 65-85% With more than two- Athese COVID-19 pandemic times, but multiply each for a few months thirds of the world’s of those by two—and sometimes four—and the scale of the before leveling off commercial jet eet crisis facing the engine industry really begins to hit home. at a 60-70% decline grounded, almost Having long since focused the core of their business mod- as the market recov- 38,000 engines are els on the aftermarket, engine-makers fear the lines of silent ers, says Aboulafi a. aircraft are not only a bellwether for drastic cutbacks in Total care and inte- parked or in storage. production but also for a potentially calamitous drop-o grated aftermarket in demand for engine maintenance, repair and overhaul packages from the (MRO) services. The impact, coming so suddenly, is an un- OEMs will likely precedented double whammy for an industry that has spent have to be flexible, most of the past decade accelerating production to keep and shops will have pace with bounding airliner delivery rates. to work with cus- The engine companies face a bleak situation because the tomers in terms of coronavirus-triggered crisis a ects three key areas; produc- price and margin, tion of new engines, support of engines in service and future he told a Jefferies development. The fi rst of these problems is already upon teleconference April engine-makers as they grapple with the challenge of shrink- 23. Flexibility could ing production by up to 50% to match the lower airframe lead to share gains,

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have suggested that Airbus will have Faury says deliveries will be “very opment program will continue “at good but if such offerings do not evolve, Commercial Jet Transport Engines Stored/Parked by Aircraft Class* to make further cuts of a similar size as low” in the second quarter, after the speed ,” he says. there could be competitive openings Engine Manufacturer Regional Jet Narrowbody Widebody Totals customers continue to defer deliveries. manufacturer was able to hand over In his discussions with airlines, for smaller niche players. However, the OEM will not decide on 122 aircraft in the fi rst quarter, which Faury observes a preference for small- With virtually all their resources CFM International 17,166 272 17,438 such changes to its production rates was only partially a ected by the novel er aircraft compared to pre-COVID-19 reprioritized toward survival, en- Engine Alliance 480 480 before June. And if they come, they will coronavirus crisis. Nonetheless, Airbus planning and asserts that Airbus gine-makers are meanwhile expect- General Electric 3,524 3,802 7,326 be “on a smaller scale” than previous was unable to deliver 60 completed is well-positioned with its smallest ed to significantly slow research and International Aero Engines 4,430 4,430 cuts, according to Faury. aircraft in the quarter. “After the sum- narrowbody, the A220, as well as the development of new engines and Pratt & Whitney 108 1,713 925 2,746 The airframer plans to spend the mer, we will start delivering aircraft at A321XLR taking on some former wide- propulsion technology—at least in Rolls-Royce 1,132 674 3,488 5,294 next few weeks on an analytical deep a better pace,” he expects. Faury says body missions and the A350. the near term. All the manufactur- Honeywell 284 284 dive into the plans and fi nancial per- the number of undelivered completed Faury expects widebody demand to ers inevitably face painful decisions Totals 5,048 23,983 8,967 37,998 formance of its customers, both les- aircraft will peak in the third quarter. recover in 2023-25, while the outlook in the weeks and months ahead as sors and airlines, to be able to better While the short-term focus is on cash for narrowbodies is “not that gloomy.” they trim research and development *As of April 18, 2020. Includes 6,077 engines in reduced-activity “parked/reserve” status that flew 1-2 of previous 7 days. Source: Aviation Week Intelligence Network Fleet Discovery assess what their short-term behavio r conservation and cutting rates, Faury Airbus reported a €481 million net work in the short term, knowing and long-term strategies will look like. also wants to position Airbus in a way loss for the fi rst quarter on sales of €10.6 that long-term environmental pressures to further improve from commercial engine sales. A much larger portion of its The analysis will be “very granular.” that enables it to resume growth quick- billion. That compares to a €40 million performance will return. revenue—approximately 45%—comes from MRO services. Airbus is also trying to assess what ly. “The race will start again; we want net profi t on €12.5 billion in sales the Funding for committed programs will therefore continue, Amid the uncertainty, Wall Street investment advisors the the recovery in traffic will look like to be fast and agile ,” he says. “There is same period a year earlier. The adjust- albeit potentially stretched over longer timescales. Rolls- UBS Group has modeled several potential outcomes. In an and is adapting its fi nancial planning a threat of being stuck in the crisis and ed operating profi t was down 49% at Royce, for example, is continuing to invest in test and devel- April 23 report on GE, two scenarios were based on a roughly accordingly. not being able to compete again.” He €281 million for the quarter. Free cash opment of the UltraFan next-generation turbofan but, along 40% hit to airliner utilization this year, compared with ana- Notably, Chief Financial Officer anticipates that the single-aisle market flow was a negative €8 billion in the with codeveloper Airbus, announced on April 24 that it had lysts’ precoronavirus assumptions and a predicted return to Dominik Asam says, “If we are able will recover faster than the widebody quarter, almost twice the amount in canceled plans to flight-test the E-Fan X hybrid-electric pro- prepandemic business levels by 2024. The worst case sees a to do what we plan, [government aid] one, but he notes the pace of the recov- the fi rst quarter of 2019. c pulsion demonstrator. Ground development of elements of 50% drop this year and much less commercial flying for the should not be necessary, given that at ery and the timing “are very di cult the system, meanwhile, will continue. foreseeable future. Regardless, the result would be a 60-70% the beginning of April we had about to predict.” He indicated that there Teal Group’s Richard Aboulafi a From a production volume perspective, GE Aviation- hit to free cash flow, or revenue minus expenses, generated €30 billion [$33 billion] in liquidity re- could be “a very aggressive ramp-up joins Aviation Week editors to discuss Safran’s CFM joint venture is expected to see the greatest from GE Aviation in 2020-21 compared to UBS’ prior model. sources, which should be ample fund- in single-aisle production” after the fallout from the Boeing-Embraer breakup: change. After delivering 1,736 Leap 1s and 391 CFM56-5/7s While some programs, such as the CFM56 for the Boeing ing under the circumstances.” COVID-19 crisis. The A321XLR devel- in 2019, output from the combined French and U.S. opera- P-8A maritime patrol aircraft as well as military fighter en- tions will decline significantly in 2020 in lockstep with ur- gine efforts, will continue much as before, the company has gent reductions in production at Airbus and Boeing. CFM, already taken drastic action to stem losses by furloughing which was previously on track to achieve a planned annual half of its engine manufacturing workers for four weeks. production rates forecast for at least the next two years. production rate of more than 2,000 Leap 1s by the end of This move, taken in early April, followed an announcement Second, they must adjust to much lower MRO revenues as 2020, is likely to slash this target by around half. in late March that it was reducing its workforce by 10% Throttling Back work is deferred or, in the worst cases, vanishes altogether GE Aviation, which was already expecting a leaner 2020 (around 2,500 employees), in direct response to the collapse as fl eets of older aircraft are prematurely retired by airlines before the pandemic because of delays to the GE9X-powered of its MRO workload, which the company estimates will be > ALMOST 38,000 COMMERCIAL JET ENGINES ARE desperately consolidating to survive. How long and how deep Boeing 777-9 and slowdowns to the GE90-115/GEnx-1-pow- down by around 50% through midyear at least. ON STORED AND PARKED AIRCRAFT this problem will become is up for debate. Assuming commer- ered 777-200LR/300ER and 787 programs, is eyeing the even According to the Aviation Week Intelligence Network cial air tra c drops 60-70% in 2020, there will be a major de- more troubling impact of the crisis on its aftermarket busi- Fleet Discovery database, the ubiquitous CFM56 makes > ENGINE AFTERMARKET AND NEW PRODUCTION stocking e ect, which could take a few months out of demand, ness. Although about a quarter of GE Aviation’s revenues up the bulk of the engines currently on nonoperational air- FACE SIMULTANEOUS CUTS according to consultant Richard Aboulafi a of the Teal Group. come from its military and other businesses, just 30% comes craft as well as those not in regular everyday service in the New-build de- Western-built jet transport fleet. Including aircraft that are Guy Norris Los Angeles and MichaelBruno Washington mand could decline parked, in long-term storage or in shorter-term parking or 40-50%, but the storage, there were more than 14,960 CFM56 engines idle as ny listing of the currently parked and stored com- aftermarket could of April 18. The joint venture’s Leap 1 engines, which power mercial airliner fleet makes for grim reading in plummet 65-85% With more than two- the grounded Boeing 737 MAX and compete with Pratt & Athese COVID-19 pandemic times, but multiply each for a few months thirds of the world’s Whitney’s PW1100G for the Airbus A320neo family, make of those by two—and sometimes four—and the scale of the before leveling off commercial jet eet up a further 2,474. crisis facing the engine industry really begins to hit home. at a 60-70% decline grounded, almost In addition to CFM, GE Aviation has more than 7,320 Having long since focused the core of their business mod- as the market recov- engines on aircraft either parked or stored. Almost half of 38,000 engines are els on the aftermarket, engine-makers fear the lines of silent ers, says Aboulafi a. these, 3,520, are CF34s powering Bombardier CRJ region- aircraft are not only a bellwether for drastic cutbacks in Total care and inte- parked or in storage. al jets while almost 1,400 are CF6s on a variety of Airbus production but also for a potentially calamitous drop-o grated aftermarket and Boeing widebodies. Approximately the same number of in demand for engine maintenance, repair and overhaul packages from the GE90s are also currently idle, while a further 1,000 GEnx- (MRO) services. The impact, coming so suddenly, is an un- OEMs will likely 1/2s are also fallow on parked 787s and 747-8s. precedented double whammy for an industry that has spent have to be flexible, For Rolls-Royce, the emerging MRO problem is particular- most of the past decade accelerating production to keep and shops will have ly acute, as the UK engine-maker focused increasingly on the pace with bounding airliner delivery rates. to work with cus- widebody market over the past decade, widening its exposure The engine companies face a bleak situation because the tomers in terms of to reliance on the support revenue from aftermarket work coronavirus-triggered crisis a ects three key areas; produc- price and margin, on older fleets of 747 and 777s as well as A330s. With large- tion of new engines, support of engines in service and future he told a Jefferies scale premature retirement possible for the relatively young development. The fi rst of these problems is already upon teleconference April Trent 900-powered A380 fleet as well as the rapid decline of engine-makers as they grapple with the challenge of shrink- 23. Flexibility could the RB211-535 powered 757 and Trent 500-powered A340- ing production by up to 50% to match the lower airframe lead to share gains, 600 fleets, the company can no longer bank on the expected MARK WAGNER/AVIATION-IMAGES.COM

2 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MAY 4-17, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MAY 4-17, 2020 25 COMMERCIAL AVIATION

rebound in deferred maintenance coming out of the crisis. 2,700 commercial engines on parked and stored aircraft. The Aviation Week database indicates 3,330 Trent en- The PW4000 makes up the single largest tally, with more gines as well as 636 RB211s are currently grounded or in than 900 units, while the rapidly growing PW1100G fl eet some form of storage. Overall, Rolls has more than 5,280 accounts for 810. Two big fl eets that are unlikely to see a inactive engines, of which over 940 are AE3007s on stored return to service in prepandemic numbers are the JT8D, Embraer 145-family regional jets. with around 460 now in storage, and the 276-strong fl eet Rolls has rushed to mitigate losses by enacting mea- of PW2000 engines. The 148 PW1500G engines on stored sures aimed at saving at least £750 million ($600 million) A220s also amount to a signifi cant fl eet. in cash this year. These include a 10% salary cut for the Other large engine fleets that account for substan- global workforce and canceling dividend payments. Further tial MRO revenues for Pratt include the Engine Alliance moves are expected as the company adjusts to rate reduc- GP7200 with GE and the former International Aero Engines tions announced by Airbus involving the Trent-powered V2500. According to the Aviation Week database there are A330neo and A350-900/1000, as well as by Boeing for the 480 GP7200s on parked A380s and 4,430 V2500s on parked Trent 1000-powered 787. and stored A320s. Pratt & Whitney, now part of Raytheon Technologies, is Pratt’s commercial aftermarket revenue of $11.1 billion similarly a£ ected across the board, with production of the accounted for 53% of total division revenue in 2019. But the PW1000G geared turbofan reduced for the A220/A320neo Je£ eries analysts expect this to decline 75% in the current families and commercial revenues hit by falling aftermarket quarter from the same period last year and drop 60% in revenues for the PW2000/PW4000 and V2500. Measures the third quarter before fi nishing the year down 50%. At such as 10% pay cuts through year-end, as well as furloughs the same time, they also see a 29% decline in revenue from are being introduced, and research and development spend- aircraft OEMs as narrowbody deliveries are pressured due ing is being frozen. The early retirements of the PW4000, to falling airline profi tability, coupled with an “extreme” de- as well as some CF6-powered fl eets, is also signifi cantly cline in widebody deliveries over the next three years. a£ ecting revenues for German engine-maker MTU. Other analysts take a dimmer view. “We do not expect Pratt, which will be forced to lean more heavily on pro- Pratt to recover to predownturn profi tability for at least duction of military F135s for the Lockheed Martin F-35 and four years—in line with previous downturns,” AllianceBer- PW4000s for the Boeing KC-46A tanker, has more than nstein analysts say. c

European Carriers Try To Determine ing up losses of around €1 million per hour and only flying 1% of its usual How Business Will Look After Crisis passenger volume, the immediate ﬁ nancial situation remains unclear after the group rejected the proposed conditions > FRANCE PLEDGES €7 BILLION AND NETHERLANDS €24 BILLION on a €9 billion German government TO AIR FRANCEKLM bailout package, according to indus- > NORWEGIAN HOPES BALANCE SHEET IMPROVEMENT PLAN try sources. In exchange, the proposal WILL UNLOCK STATE AID would have called for the government to take control of a 25% stake and two Helen Massy-Beresford Paris and Jens Flottau Frankfurt supervisory board members, e£ ective- ly preventing the company from tak- uropean airlines are still reel- ing a first-quarter operating loss of ing painful restructuring measures. ing from the impact of the €535 million ($581 million), down from Lufthansa has not commented on ECOVID-19 crisis, but the need to a proﬁ t of €135 million a year earlier. the proceedings but industry sources look ahead toward a post-coronavirus In the April 28 earnings report state- future to determine how the region’s ment, IAG said BA took the biggest air transport industry will evolve in hit, followed by Iberia and Aer Lingus. the longer term is clear . IAG said in the statement that it has Even airlines that were performing reduced passenger capacity in April well before the coronavirus crisis are and May by 94% compared to last year, looking for external help. The goal is to only operating flights for essential ensure they survive long enough to take travel and repatriation. The group will advantage of an anticipated increase in determine passenger capacity for June passenger demand when widespread and beyond according to “the timing travel restrictions are removed. of the easing of lockdowns and travel British Airways (BA) has set out restrictions by governments around plans for a major restructuring and the world,” its statement said. The redundancy program as a result of the group believes, like its European airline COVID-19 pandemic, with up to 12,000 peers, that recovery to the passenger people leaving the airline. This comes demand levels seen prior to the coro- on the heels of parent company Inter- navirus crisis will take several years. national Airlines Group (IAG) report- For Lufthansa Group, which is rack-

2 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MAY 4-17, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST COMMERCIAL AVIATION rebound in deferred maintenance coming out of the crisis. 2,700 commercial engines on parked and stored aircraft. say the group is now considering en- equity conversion plan to improve ment, Air France-KLM CEO Ben The Aviation Week database indicates 3,330 Trent en- The PW4000 makes up the single largest tally, with more tering “protective umbrella” restruc- its balance sheet. The action is a Smith said the funding was “not a blank gines as well as 636 RB211s are currently grounded or in than 900 units, while the rapidly growing PW1100G fl eet turing, a variant of Germany’s insol- precondition for accessing 3 billion check.” The Dutch finance minister some form of storage. Overall, Rolls has more than 5,280 accounts for 810. Two big fl eets that are unlikely to see a vency law aimed at fundamentally Norwegian kroner ($290 million) of said the funding was provided with inactive engines, of which over 940 are AE3007s on stored return to service in prepandemic numbers are the JT8D, sound companies facing problems aid, 300 million Norwegian kroner of the understanding that Air France and Embraer 145-family regional jets. with around 460 now in storage, and the 276-strong fl eet because of unexpected circumstances. which has already been granted. KLM, “take measures, to be set out in a Rolls has rushed to mitigate losses by enacting mea- of PW2000 engines. The 148 PW1500G engines on stored Senior executives at Lufthansa be- If Norwegian succeeds in putting the restructuring plan, to ensure they will sures aimed at saving at least £750 million ($600 million) A220s also amount to a signifi cant fl eet. lieve the airline can operate around 50% plan in place, the airline wants to use the be able to continue playing a signifi - in cash this year. These include a 10% salary cut for the Other large engine fleets that account for substan- of a normal schedule in the upcoming cash generated to change its strategy, cant role in what is a highly compet- global workforce and canceling dividend payments. Further tial MRO revenues for Pratt include the Engine Alliance winter timetable, at best . The forecast gradually emerging after the crisis with itive international aviation market.” moves are expected as the company adjusts to rate reduc- GP7200 with GE and the former International Aero Engines calls for that to rise to around 70-75% a fl eet of around 110-120 aircraft, down On the Dutch side, the government tions announced by Airbus involving the Trent-powered V2500. According to the Aviation Week database there are next summer and somewhat higher in from a precrisis plan of 168 aircraft . is asking sta to take a pay cut. The A330neo and A350-900/1000, as well as by Boeing for the 480 GP7200s on parked A380s and 4,430 V2500s on parked the 2021-22 winter season. CEO Carsten The airline plans to focus on tried- highest earners are expected to make Trent 1000-powered 787. and stored A320s. Spohr has said he does not expect the and-tested routes—such as long-haul the biggest contribution, but KLM will Pratt & Whitney, now part of Raytheon Technologies, is Pratt’s commercial aftermarket revenue of $11.1 billion airline to return to precrisis passenger fl ights between London and New York also “make a contribution in terms of similarly a£ ected across the board, with production of the accounted for 53% of total division revenue in 2019. But the volumes in the foreseeable future. The or London and Los Angeles, or intra- sustainability and nuisance reduction, PW1000G geared turbofan reduced for the A220/A320neo Je£ eries analysts expect this to decline 75% in the current carrier has already set out plans for a Nordic services in the short-haul net- for example by cutting back the num- families and commercial revenues hit by falling aftermarket quarter from the same period last year and drop 60% in smaller post-crisis fl eet. work. It will also look to put in place a ber of night fl ights.” revenues for the PW2000/PW4000 and V2500. Measures the third quarter before fi nishing the year down 50%. At Bernstein analyst Daniel Roeska cost-cutting initiative and drive an Before the crisis hit, Air France- such as 10% pay cuts through year-end, as well as furloughs the same time, they also see a 29% decline in revenue from wrote in an April 29 research note that increase in ancillary revenues. KLM, which also includes LCC sub- are being introduced, and research and development spend- aircraft OEMs as narrowbody deliveries are pressured due Lufthansa would need liquidity support But industry observers have pre- sidiary Transavia, was conscious of ing is being frozen. The early retirements of the PW4000, to falling airline profi tability, coupled with an “extreme” de- in a matter of weeks. As a result, he dicted the coronavirus crisis will lead the need to restructure. as well as some CF6-powered fl eets, is also signifi cantly cline in widebody deliveries over the next three years. believes the German government, the to more consolidation. For now, Nor- Smith took the helm of the group a£ ecting revenues for German engine-maker MTU. Other analysts take a dimmer view. “We do not expect company and Lufthansa shareholders wegian is waiting to see if the plan it has in September 2018 with the mission Pratt, which will be forced to lean more heavily on pro- Pratt to recover to predownturn profi tability for at least should work together to provide the put forward will be approved—granting of improving its performance and duction of military F135s for the Lockheed Martin F-35 and four years—in line with previous downturns,” AllianceBer- necessary €8-10 billion to see the group it the reprieve it needs to “hibernate” narrowing the profi tability gap with PW4000s for the Boeing KC-46A tanker, has more than nstein analysts say. c through the crisis. “Governments will through the next year before returning its peers. In November, he launched a play a crucial role, and we expect sup- to the skies starting in April 2021. With- restructuring plan aimed at doing just port in the form of debt and equity,” out state funding, Norwegian could that by simplifying and modernizing Roeska wrote. “But shareholders become another coronavirus casualty. the fl eet, improving e ciency and re- European Carriers Try To Determine ing up losses of around €1 million per should also contribute, and we suggest The Air France-KLM group, which ducing operating costs, refocusing on hour and only flying 1% of its usual an equity raise to share the burden. has grounded 90% of its fl eet since the profitable segments and boosting its How Business Will Look After Crisis passenger volume, the immediate fi nan- Lastly, management should leverage crisis began, is also looking to the fu- two hubs at Paris Charles de Gaulle Air- cial situation remains unclear after the some of its fl eet and fi rmly commit to ture, with the help of a massive bailout port and Amsterdam Schiphol Airport . group rejected the proposed conditions free cash fl ow targets to ensure a quick from France and the Netherlands. The group has already made prog- > FRANCE PLEDGES €7 BILLION AND NETHERLANDS €24 BILLION on a €9 billion German government deleveraging of the balance sheet.” The French state, a 14.3% share- ress with that plan, including major TO AIR FRANCEKLM bailout package, according to indus- Norwegian Air Shuttle , which was al- holder in Air France-KLM, is granting aircraft orders for Airbus A350s and > NORWEGIAN HOPES BALANCE SHEET IMPROVEMENT PLAN try sources. In exchange, the proposal ready under fi nancial pressure following a total of €7 billion in loans. The Neth- A220s as well as the decision to retire WILL UNLOCK STATE AID would have called for the government rapid expansion before the COVID-19 erlands, which holds 14%, has pledged its A380s. But apparently the restruc- to take control of a 25% stake and two crisis grounded nearly all of its fl eet, €2-4 billion in aid, likely to be made turing already underway is not enough. Helen Massy-Beresford Paris and Jens Flottau Frankfurt supervisory board members, e£ ective- has warned that without more state up of a guarantee and a loan. But the “Faced with the upheaval the world ly preventing the company from tak- help it will run out of cash by mid-May. group knows the combined €9-11 billion is going through, we are going to have uropean airlines are still reel- ing a first-quarter operating loss of ing painful restructuring measures. The low-cost carrier (LCC), which of aid it is set to receive comes with to rethink our model immediately,” ing from the impact of the €535 million ($581 million), down from Lufthansa has not commented on has temporarily laid off most of its strings attached. Smith told staff in a video message ECOVID-19 crisis, but the need to a profi t of €135 million a year earlier. the proceedings but industry sources workforce, has set out a debt-for- After France made its announce- after France pledged its aid. look ahead toward a post-coronavirus In the April 28 earnings report state- Smith said the group’s transfor- future to determine how the region’s ment, IAG said BA took the biggest mation would now work toward the air transport industry will evolve in hit, followed by Iberia and Aer Lingus. Lufthansa is currently ying about 1% of its usual passenger volume. single priority of regaining economic the longer term is clear . IAG said in the statement that it has and financial security as quickly as Even airlines that were performing reduced passenger capacity in April possible “in order to survive in this well before the coronavirus crisis are and May by 94% compared to last year, ferociously competitive marketplace looking for external help. The goal is to only operating flights for essential in which we operate.” ensure they survive long enough to take travel and repatriation. The group will He also promised to focus on envi- advantage of an anticipated increase in determine passenger capacity for June ronmental transformation, refl ecting passenger demand when widespread and beyond according to “the timing wider calls for state aid to airlines to travel restrictions are removed. of the easing of lockdowns and travel be contingent on greater e orts to im- British Airways (BA) has set out restrictions by governments around prove sustainability. plans for a major restructuring and the world,” its statement said. The “We must dedicate our efforts to redundancy program as a result of the group believes, like its European airline imagining and implementing a more COVID-19 pandemic, with up to 12,000 peers, that recovery to the passenger environmentally friendly aviation people leaving the airline. This comes demand levels seen prior to the coro- model,” Smith said. “I believe this cri- on the heels of parent company Inter- navirus crisis will take several years. sis could have a silver lining.” c national Airlines Group (IAG) report- For Lufthansa Group, which is rack- —With Alan Dron in London MARIO OMMES/EOI IMAGES/GETT IMAGES

2 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MAY 4-17, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MAY 4-17, 2020 2 COMMERCIAL AVIATION

737 MAX Return Timeline the accidents. The most significant: reworking wiring to ensure MAXs comply with electrical wiring interconnect Remains Uncertain system (EWIS) regulations added in 2009 to prevent short circuits and other hazards from creating safety risks. BOEING CHANGING WIRING ON UNDELIVERED JETS As part of Boeing’s work following the model’s ground- > ing, the FAA asked the manufacturer to examine possible > PANDEMIC HOLDING UP KEY TRAINING REVIEW faults that could cause uncommanded horizontal stabilizer movements. Boeing identified about a dozen places within Sean Broderick Washington the wiring bundles where it could not guarantee required separation of stabilizer trim motor wiring. It also could oeing has begun modifying horizontal stabilizer con- not guarantee that a wiring fault would not cause an un- trol wiring on its stored Boeing 737 MAX fleet, but commanded stabilizer movement, though the scenario has Bseveral key tasks required before the aircraft can never occurred on the 737 fleet. return—including an important training program review The wiring bundles in question are the same on the 737 by global regulators—remain in limbo, in part because of Next Generation (737NG) and the MAX. But the EWIS rules challenges introduced by the novel coronavirus. in question, Part 25.1707, were added after the 737NG’s certification. Boeing argued that the NG’s fault-free service history meant the issue Boeing must modify wiring in more than 400 is not a safety problem. The FAA said the MAXs before delivering them to customers. undelivered MAXs must comply with its rules so they can get airworthiness certificates needed for customer delivery. “We’ve begun work on modifying wiring and will continue to ensure the 737 MAX meets all safety and regulatory requirements before it returns to service,” Boeing says. The work involves running new wire outside of an existing bundle to replicate functions performed by wire in the bundle. The FAA and Boeing are still determining how to address the 387 MAXs

DAVID RYDER/GETTY IMAGES delivered before the grounding. The most likely scenario is an airworthiness direc- tive based on a still-to-be-issued Boeing service bulletin. It is not clear whether the FAA will require wiring in already- delivered MAXs to be modified before they can fly again, or give operators a longer grace period to make the changes. In January, before the spread of COVID-19 led to travel re- Meanwhile, the manufacturer continues to work with strictions and wiped out nearly all passenger travel demand, regulators on other outstanding issues that must be ad- Boeing CEO Dave Calhoun expressed optimism that the FAA dressed to ensure the MAX meets requirements. Flight would approve the 737 MAX’s return around mid-year. Boe- testing of the new software has continued, as have meeting now says several issues will keep the MAX grounded ings between civil aviation authorities and Boeing repre- into the third quarter at least. Regulators ordered the fleet sentatives to review software and training changes. Work parked in March 2019 following two fatal accidents in 133 is being done remotely where possible because of travel days. Calhoun’s mid-year projection included extra time and other restrictions linked to the pandemic. for a few unforeseen issues. Boeing maintained this was a The limitations are holding up at least one critical re - prudent consideration since the MAX’s grounding has been turn-to-service task: evaluation and approval of proposed prolonged by numerous findings that regulators determined new MAX training. One of the steps is a multi-day evaluation need addressing. Many of them focus on the MAX’s flight by a Joint Operational Evaluation Board (JOEB), a group of control computer software, including the Maneuvering Char- pilots and other regulatory officials from several civil avia- acteristics Augmentation System (MCAS) flight control law. tion agencies that will review the proposed MAX training The MCAS played a central role in both MAX accident using simulators. The JOEB’s report will help shape the sequences, commanding nose-down stabilizer inputs that FAA’s Flight Standardization Board document that will spell were not needed because faulty angle-of-attack data told out the minimum recommended MAX training. The JOEB’s the flight control computer that the MAX’s nose was too work session has not been scheduled, Boeing confirms. high. In both cases, Lion Air Flight 610 in October 2018 and The FAA in early April completed another must-do to Ethiopian Airlines Flight 302 in March 2019, the pilots did get the MAX back into airline service: updating the model’s not understand what was happening and could not figure master minimum equipment list (MMEL). The new MMEL out how to override the MCAS. includes several changes linked to the flight control soft- Boeing also is tackling other issues that have no link to ware modifications. The most notable addition, however,

28 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MAY 4-17, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST COMMERCIAL AVIATION

737 MAX Return Timeline the accidents. The most significant: reworking wiring to is that MAXs will require at least one working autopilot. dispatch. They include having a working autopilot-engage ensure MAXs comply with electrical wiring interconnect The change, which was not included in draft versions, command switch, indicator light, aural disengage warning Remains Uncertain system (EWIS) regulations added in 2009 to prevent short has nothing to do with the accidents and subsequent system, disengage light and control wheel disengage switch. circuits and other hazards from creating safety risks. software changes. Rather, one of the MAX’s non-normal The MMEL/checklist conflict is a reminder of the chal- BOEING CHANGING WIRING ON UNDELIVERED JETS As part of Boeing’s work following the model’s ground- checklists calls for pilots to engage the autopilot as part lenges both Boeing and the FAA face to earn back industry > ing, the FAA asked the manufacturer to examine possible of troubleshooting. confidence following a year-plus grounding of the manufac- > PANDEMIC HOLDING UP KEY TRAINING REVIEW faults that could cause uncommanded horizontal stabilizer The scenario is linked to the MAX’s fly-by-wire spoiler turer’s key commercial product. The MCAS’ suspect design, movements. Boeing identified about a dozen places within system, one of the changes Boeing made from the 737NG combined with inaccurate assumptions about how pilots Sean Broderick Washington the wiring bundles where it could not guarantee required design. When the MAX’s elevator-jam landing assist system would react if the system activated when it was not needed, separation of stabilizer trim motor wiring. It also could is active and spoilers are extended, pilots are told to use led to the model’s grounding. Besides changing the MCAS oeing has begun modifying horizontal stabilizer con- not guarantee that a wiring fault would not cause an un- the “ASSIST ON” non-normal checklist. One of its steps is software, Boeing was tasked with a top-to-bottom review of trol wiring on its stored Boeing 737 MAX fleet, but commanded stabilizer movement, though the scenario has to engage one autopilot system to retract the spoilers, and the MAX’s design, paying special attention to how pilots were Bseveral key tasks required before the aircraft can never occurred on the 737 fleet. then use autopilot “as needed.” trained to interact with the flight control system. return—including an important training program review The wiring bundles in question are the same on the 737 The original MAX MMEL, approved in 2018, allowed Because the MCAS was intended to function in the by global regulators—remain in limbo, in part because of Next Generation (737NG) and the MAX. But the EWIS rules dispatch without either autopilot functioning so long as background, Boeing did not include a description of it in challenges introduced by the novel coronavirus. in question, Part 25.1707, were added after the 737NG’s cer- the planned route times were not too long, routes and ap- the original MAX pilot manuals. Investigators determined tification. Boeing argued that the NG’s proaches avoided airspace that require an autopilot, and this was one of several missteps that helped set the stage fault-free service history meant the issue pilots, who face higher workloads when hand-flying, did not for the accidents. Boeing must modify wiring in more than 400 is not a safety problem. The FAA said the object. All other 737s, which are covered under a different Despite the intense scrutiny during the grounding, the MAXs before delivering them to customers. undelivered MAXs must comply with its MMEL, have similar conditions. MMEL conflict—a fundamental incompatibility that should rules so they can get airworthiness cer- But the MAX’s new spoiler system and associated check- have been caught during design review—was discovered 18 tificates needed for customer delivery. list created a conflict—mandating use of an autopilot even months after the MAX entered service, by an operator. “We’ve begun work on modifying wir- though one was not always required to be functioning—that “The whole world is watching both organizations, and ing and will continue to ensure the 737 went unnoticed until operators began reviewing the pro- it seems reasonable that they’d both be stepping through MAX meets all safety and regulatory re- posed MMEL revision. MAX operator FlyDubai pointed the system very, very carefully and in lockstep,” says one quirements before it returns to service,” out the change, according to an FAA document. former FAA certification official. “It’s not the run-of-the-mill Boeing says. Requiring a functioning autopilot meant mandating sev- daily procedures we’re talking about, so one would expect The work involves running new wire eral related functions that were previously not required for especially all the non-normals to be thoroughly wrung out.” c outside of an existing bundle to replicate functions performed by wire in the bundle. The FAA and Boeing are still determining how to address the 387 MAXs

DAVID RYDER/GETTY IMAGES delivered before the grounding. The most likely scenario is an airworthiness direc- tive based on a still-to-be-issued Boeing service bulletin. It is not clear whether the FAA will require wiring in already- delivered MAXs to be modified before they can fly again, or give operators a longer grace period to make the changes. Fleet Discovery Military In January, before the spread of COVID-19 led to travel re- Meanwhile, the manufacturer continues to work with strictions and wiped out nearly all passenger travel demand, regulators on other outstanding issues that must be ad- Boeing CEO Dave Calhoun expressed optimism that the FAA dressed to ensure the MAX meets requirements. Flight would approve the 737 MAX’s return around mid-year. Boe- testing of the new software has continued, as have meet- Discover Opportunity with Unparalleled ing now says several issues will keep the MAX grounded ings between civil aviation authorities and Boeing repre- into the third quarter at least. Regulators ordered the fleet sentatives to review software and training changes. Work Tracking of Global Military Fleets parked in March 2019 following two fatal accidents in 133 is being done remotely where possible because of travel days. Calhoun’s mid-year projection included extra time and other restrictions linked to the pandemic. Aviation Week Network’s Fleet Discovery Military Edition simplifi es for a few unforeseen issues. Boeing maintained this was a The limitations are holding up at least one critical re - tracking global military aircraft and engines — piloted and unpiloted, fi xed wing prudent consideration since the MAX’s grounding has been turn-to-service task: evaluation and approval of proposed and rotary — so you can discover new opportunities to grow your business. prolonged by numerous findings that regulators determined new MAX training. One of the steps is a multi-day evaluation ● Featuring over 70,000 aircraft and 110,000 engines in service with need addressing. Many of them focus on the MAX’s flight by a Joint Operational Evaluation Board (JOEB), a group of more than 400 military operators. control computer software, including the Maneuvering Char- pilots and other regulatory officials from several civil avia- ● acteristics Augmentation System (MCAS) flight control law. tion agencies that will review the proposed MAX training Searchable and ﬁ lterable by aircraft, engine, category, mission, lift type, The MCAS played a central role in both MAX accident using simulators. The JOEB’s report will help shape the weight class and more. sequences, commanding nose-down stabilizer inputs that FAA’s Flight Standardization Board document that will spell See for yourself how Fleet Discovery Military can help you track aircraft and were not needed because faulty angle-of-attack data told out the minimum recommended MAX training. The JOEB’s engines so you never miss a business opportunity. the flight control computer that the MAX’s nose was too work session has not been scheduled, Boeing confirms. high. In both cases, Lion Air Flight 610 in October 2018 and The FAA in early April completed another must-do to Ethiopian Airlines Flight 302 in March 2019, the pilots did get the MAX back into airline service: updating the model’s To learn more, go to aviationweek.com/FDMilitary not understand what was happening and could not figure master minimum equipment list (MMEL). The new MMEL Or call: Anne McMahon +1 646 291 6353 | Thom Clayton +44 (0) 20 7017 6106 out how to override the MCAS. includes several changes linked to the flight control soft- Boeing also is tackling other issues that have no link to ware modifications. The most notable addition, however,

28 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MAY 4-17, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MAY 4-17, 2020 29 COMMERCIAL AVIATION

nered to measure -20 the global impact of the pandemic on the -40 flow of goods and Middle East North America Europe services and to help -60 signal where and South America Asia Caribbean when a recovery ap- -80 pears to take hold. Africa Paciﬁc North Atlantic Aireon operates a -100 global surveillance network based on Source: Aireon automatic dependent surveillance-broadcast (ADS-B) receivers carried On a regional basis, there were 91% fewer flights in by Iridium Next low-Earth-orbit satellites. The receivers South America in mid-April compared with early Janu- capture signals from ADS-B-equipped aircraft and route ary, 89% less in Europe, 88% less in Africa, 87% less in the

the data to air navigationSource: service Aireon providers (ANSP) that Middle East and 64% less in North America. subscribe to Aireon’s service. CANSO, based in the Neth- Asia, the region in which the novel coronavirus that erlands, represents world ANSPs. causes COVID-19 originated, appeared to be bottoming The continuously broadcast signals contain data includ- out at 72% fewer fl ights than in January. But Hocquard ing an aircraft’s horizontal position, altitude, velocity, iden- tamped down any expectation of a speedy return to normal tifi cation and call sign, which an ANSP can combine with global operations. ground-based surveillance and fl ight plan information for “Everyone is still looking to Asia for signs of recovery. But air tra c management applications. the opening up of domestic travel in China, and some inter- Parsing the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic is yet national [travel], has been o set by declines in other parts of another unplanned use of the system, which became fully the Asia-Pacifi c region. So while we see a leveling, we’re not operational in late March 2019 upon the completion of the seeing signs of a regional tra c increase just yet,” he said. Iridium Next satellite constellation. That month, data that “Interestingly, though, Air China has fi led a domestic Aireon shared on the position and trajectory of Ethiopian schedule for the weeklong May holidays coming up that Airlines Flight 302 before it crashed minutes after takeo o ers similar capacity to 2019 levels,” Hocquard added. prompted the FAA to ground the Boeing 737 MAX. “That, I think, is a remarkable sign of planned domestic Announcing the collaboration with CANSO, Aireon CEO aviation recovery.” c

AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MAY 4-17, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST MA 2020 COMMERCIAL AVIATION

Air Traffic Plunge Reflects Don Thoma noted: “Good data has been fundamental to tracking the spread of COVID-19, and it is clear that juris- Advance of the Pandemic dictions making decisions based on strong data have been the best prepared. Aireon is proud to partner with CANSO > MORE THAN HALF OF GLOBAL AIRCRAFT GROUNDED to deliver data-driven insights in the hopes our e orts will provide answers in the face of growing questions.” > DATA REVEALS COVID-19’S EFFECT ON REGIONS Data reveals that on April 13, Aireon’s space-based ADS-B system tracked 16,780 transponder-equipped aircraft— Bill Carey Washington down 56%, or about 21,000 aircraft, from the 37,780 average C unique aircraft tracked during the fi rst week of January. here are various ways to measure the impact of the “Broadly, we saw just about half the world’s unique COVID-19 pandemic on commercial aviation—air- aircraft on the ground, parked, within four weeks” of the Tline schedule reductions, canceled aircraft orders, U.S. and European nations imposing widespread travel MRO M government bailouts, layo s—and all point to major up- bans in mid-March, said CANSO Director General Simon heaval. Among the starker indicators is the number of air Hocquard, during an April 16 webinar. tra c movements. In addition to fewer aircraft fl ying, the data also reveals E R According to newly available satellite-tracking data, less a 74% decline in average global aircraft movements and a than half the number of aircraft that were fl ying world- 72% drop in global fl ight hours compared with the fi rst wide in January continued operating in mid-April because week of January. of travel restrictions imposed to fi ght the pandemic. The “On average, in the fi rst week of January, each aircraft number of aircraft fl own by major cargo carriers was only fl ew approximately 6 hr. daily, whereas on the 13th of April, 4% less than the prepandemic level in November 2019, in- each aircraft was only fl ying about 3.8 hr., and there are dicating that cargo largely continues to move. less aircraft fl ying,” Hocquard said. The data comes from a collaboration between space- Percent Cange in lobal oements Since Janary based surveillance eek of provider Aireon and Jan. 1 Jan. 8 Jan. 15 Jan. 22 Jan. 29 Feb. 5 Feb. 12 Feb. 19 Feb. 26 March 4 March 11 March 18 March 25 April 1 April 8 the Civil Air Naviga- 20 tion Services Orga- nization (CANSO), 0 which have partnered to measure -20 the global impact of the pandemic on the -40 flow of goods and Middle East North America Europe services and to help -60 signal where and South America Asia Caribbean when a recovery ap- -80 pears to take hold. Africa Pacific North Atlantic Aireon operates a -100 global surveillance network based on Source: Aireon automatic dependent surveillance-broadcast (ADS-B) receivers carried On a regional basis, there were 91% fewer flights in by Iridium Next low-Earth-orbit satellites. The receivers South America in mid-April compared with early Janu- capture signals from ADS-B-equipped aircraft and route ary, 89% less in Europe, 88% less in Africa, 87% less in the the data to air navigationSource: service Aireon providers (ANSP) that Middle East and 64% less in North America. A MRO subscribe to Aireon’s service. CANSO, based in the Neth- Asia, the region in which the novel coronavirus that erlands, represents world ANSPs. causes COVID-19 originated, appeared to be bottoming U T The continuously broadcast signals contain data includ- out at 72% fewer fl ights than in January. But Hocquard ing an aircraft’s horizontal position, altitude, velocity, iden- tamped down any expectation of a speedy return to normal tifi cation and call sign, which an ANSP can combine with global operations. ground-based surveillance and fl ight plan information for “Everyone is still looking to Asia for signs of recovery. But air tra c management applications. the opening up of domestic travel in China, and some inter- C D Parsing the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic is yet national [travel], has been o set by declines in other parts of another unplanned use of the system, which became fully the Asia-Pacifi c region. So while we see a leveling, we’re not operational in late March 2019 upon the completion of the seeing signs of a regional tra c increase just yet,” he said. I Iridium Next satellite constellation. That month, data that “Interestingly, though, Air China has fi led a domestic Aireon shared on the position and trajectory of Ethiopian schedule for the weeklong May holidays coming up that Airlines Flight 302 before it crashed minutes after takeo o ers similar capacity to 2019 levels,” Hocquard added. prompted the FAA to ground the Boeing 737 MAX. “That, I think, is a remarkable sign of planned domestic Announcing the collaboration with CANSO, Aireon CEO aviation recovery.” c

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MRO 4 NEWS BRIEFS & CONTRACTS MAINTENANCE CHECK

SAFETY & REGULATORY MRO 6 Pandemic’s Ramifications Pace of Rebound MRO 7 ARSA Update hile accurately pre- AIRLINE INSIGHT dicting what the MRO MRO 8 Croatia Airlines market will look like, Davor Bujan, technical W director, on MRO during even at the end of this year, is “A hint of what it will be.” the COVID-19 outbreak tricky due to the COVID-19 pandemic, these recent figures and Until travel restrictions ease, howev- COMPONENTS er, the industry faces all sorts of logistics MRO 10 A Disruptive Influence facts could hint at what it will be. problems—from people to parts. Component MROs focus on Big mergers during these cash- For instance, lessors’ scheduled the post-pandemic market crunch days are not happening: Boeing returns are being held up because of and Embraer, as well as Hexcel and travel restrictions and quarantines. OPERATIONS Woodward, both called off their planned They need to find local resources to per- MRO 14 Filling the Gap deals. However, the one-stop-shop con- form maintenance, inspect the aircraft Maintenance providers look cept isn’t going away, so MRO consoli- and sign the required documents. “This to aircraft storage and minor dation will continue. repair on parked aircraft The number of parked aircraft is delay creates the risk that a long-stop during fleet groundings probably at or near its peak. Aviation date in the next lease with a follow-on operator is passed, and the follow-on MRO 15 Drones & Digital Week Network’s Fleet Discovery data shows nearly 16,000 aircraft are parked lease is terminated,” says Bill Gibson, AAR is using augmented a partner at Vedder Price. reality, drones and digital and about 3,500 are in parked/reserve On the bright side, one thing that is development for efficiencies status (flying 1-2 days during a 7-day period). Airbus A320s and Boeing 737s helping airlines and aftermarket com- comprise 9,300 of that total, meaning panies through this crisis is remote that more CFM56s are parked than any collaboration tools. During an Aviation other engine type by far. Week webinar April 22 on MRO compli- A decrease in aircraft belly freight ance, 67% of participants said they had due to fewer flights is leading to new looked into remote collaboration tools opportunities for cabin modifications before the COVID-19 crisis and 19% said as airlines temporarily carry freight they had done so since. in their cabins. Companies such as These tools and others—such as what HAECO Cabin Solutions are designing AAR is piloting (see MRO page 15)—will REGIONAL FOCUS products to place freight on or between make the MRO industry more efficient. MRO 17 Beyond Borders seats, or removing seats to make room Companies are understandably trying Australian MRO providers for a “palletized” unit on the floor. look to boost competitiveness to preserve their cash, but in these times Airline travel will most likely recover it is important to focus on your business but face regulatory costs at a slow, gradual rate, rather than a fundamentals so your company will V-shaped spike. That means not all of meet customer needs and expectations TECHNOLOGY the aircraft and engines will return. As and be positioned for the future post- MRO 20 Predicting Progress airlines and lessors determine whether COVID-19—because the market will re- Why airlines are not using their aircraft and engine assets are predictive maintenance as cover. It will look different and it might worth more remaining whole or as c much as expected pieces, teardowns will increase. This will take a few years, but it will rebound. lead to more used serviceable material. AIRCRAFT ANALYSIS —Lee Ann Shay MRO 22 737NG MRO Market With most of the fleet idled or parked due to the pandemic, assessing the MRO market The aviation industry has faced its share of disruptive challenges, and each time it has has become problematic emerged stronger. With that in mind, Aviation Week is expanding our COVID-19 coverage with content that not only helps in the short term with news and situational aware- MRO LINKS ness but also skews to predictive and best-practices content that will help our industry make good decisions now—and for the better times ahead. MRO 24 Mobile MRO Structures Updates Access coronavirus coverage from across the Aviation Week Network— VIEWPOINT including current news, a new weekly webinar series and expert forecasts and analysis of MRO 26 Craig Gottlieb, Accenture what’s next for our global industry: Aviationweek.com/coronavirus COVER: STANDARDAERO

AviationWeek.com/MRO INSIDEMRO MAY 2020 MRO3 MR News Briefs

Highlights Contracts LHT Offers Cargo Conversions Aeronatical Engineers was selected by Lufthansa Technik has launched a new service in response to the surge Aerospace of Canada to convert three in demand for cargo services since the COVID-19 crisis has grounded the 737-400s to freighters; the rst (24769; ex- vast majority of passenger aircraft and with them, their belly capacity. It Flair Airlines) is scheduled to commence obtained Engineering Order Specifi c Tailsign approvals from the German modification in May 2020 at KF Aero- Federal Aviation Authority to convert four of Lufthansa’s 236-seat Airbus A330-300s. The A330s are now fi tted to transport medical supplies to meet space’s Kelowna, British Columbia, facility. the growing demand for airfreight during the coronavirus crisis. As demand for transporting commercial goods by air is growing rapidly, e ailland booked its rst order from LHT is working to obtain supplemental type certifi cates for all common Ja Air for SB/kits to convert 13 Dash aircraft types so that airlines can quickly convert their passenger aircraft 8-400s to package freighters. The recon g- into auxiliary freighters. uration includes 17 cargo nets to provide a Thousands of Aircraft in Reserve Status total payload of up to 17,960 lb. and a total cargo volume of up to 1,150 ft.3 per aircraft. Aviation Week’s Fleet Discov- ery data shows nearly 16,000 Fleet Status Share S Tecnics of Novosibirsk, Russia, aircraft in parked status and tored an additional 3,600 in parked/ arked was selected by Air Astana to perform reserve status, meaning air- C checks on two Boeing 757-200s prior craft are fl ying once or twice to their return to lessors. during a seven-day period. Air- lines often do this to maximize fleet flexibility, keep aircraft ST Engineering secured S$838 mil- out of short-term maintenance lion ($591.5) in aerospace contracts in and maintain crew fl exibility. In ervice rst-quarter 2020 versus S$1.3 billion in As of April 24, the top three arked/eserve operators using this tactic rst-quarter 2019. The new deals include were Delta Air Lines, United MRO contracts from Chinese airlines for Airlines and Ryanair. Source: Aviation Week Fleet Discovery A320s and CFM56-7Bs and from a South- east Asian airline for 737 and Bombardier Boeing Makes Leadership, Structural Changes Q400 component support. Boeing has tapped Mark Jenks to lead a new Airplane Programs organization that the company expects to ensure both consistency and e ciency throughout its core commercial aircraft production e orts—one of several ideroe reached an agreement with changes aimed at aligning similar businesses. ftamblansetenesten to convert This step will combine management of its external and internal supply some de Havilland Dash 8s into Bodo- chains under Elizabeth Lund, currently Boeing Commercial Aircraft’s vice based air ambulances. president for the supply chain. Lund will oversee not only Boeing’s 3,000 external suppliers but also internal parts, subassembly and kit procure- Contract Source: SpeedNews ment coming out of Boeing’s sites around the world and feeding into its production facilities. Boeing also is combining management of its Seal Beach, California-based Customer Support organization under Mike Fleming, who is head of the company’s recently created Global Aviation Safety System as well as the 737 MAX return to service e ort. The change will streamline commercial customer support, including the need to deliver 420 stored MAXs to customers and another 385 stored MAXs in operators’ hands back into service, under a single leader. EASA Releases Cabin Air Circulation, Cleaning Guidance The European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) has released a safety information bulletin (SIB) series aimed at limiting the spread of the COVID-19 virus. The SIB urged operators to crack down on pilots and cabin crew members who may be using their own cleaning products on aircraft. Using unapproved cleaning agents could damage surfaces or mix with other cleaning agents to create fumes that could endanger passengers and crew members, the agency says. EASA’s operational guidance also addressed the issue of minimizing the virus’s presence in cabins. Aircraft with high- e ciency particulate air (HEPA) fi lters in their cabin air system are well-equipped to minimize the spread of the novel coronavirus, but those without such systems should consider minimizing cabin air recirculation, the agency concludes. EASA’s latest information on containing the virus and the COVID-19 illness it triggers—updated April 7—revises previous guidance that recommended using air conditioning, which draws in fresh air, as much as possible. c

MRO INSIDEMRO MAY 2020 AviationWeek.com/ MR News Briefs

Highlights Contracts LHT Offers Cargo Conversions Aeronatical Engineers was selected by Lufthansa Technik has launched a new service in response to the surge Aerospace of Canada to convert three in demand for cargo services since the COVID-19 crisis has grounded the 737-400s to freighters; the rst (24769; ex- vast majority of passenger aircraft and with them, their belly capacity. It Flair Airlines) is scheduled to commence obtained Engineering Order Specifi c Tailsign approvals from the German modification in May 2020 at KF Aero- Federal Aviation Authority to convert four of Lufthansa’s 236-seat Airbus A330-300s. The A330s are now fi tted to transport medical supplies to meet space’s Kelowna, British Columbia, facility. the growing demand for airfreight during the coronavirus crisis. As demand for transporting commercial goods by air is growing rapidly, e ailland booked its rst order from LHT is working to obtain supplemental type certifi cates for all common Ja Air for SB/kits to convert 13 Dash SIMPLICITY aircraft types so that airlines can quickly convert their passenger aircraft 8-400s to package freighters. The recon g- into auxiliary freighters. uration includes 17 cargo nets to provide a Thousands of Aircraft in Reserve Status total payload of up to 17,960 lb. and a total cargo volume of up to 1,150 ft.3 per aircraft. Aviation Week’s Fleet Discov- FEELS GOOD, ery data shows nearly 16,000 Fleet Status Share S Tecnics of Novosibirsk, Russia, aircraft in parked status and tored an additional 3,600 in parked/ arked was selected by Air Astana to perform reserve status, meaning air- C checks on two Boeing 757-200s prior craft are fl ying once or twice to their return to lessors. during a seven-day period. Air- DOESN’T IT lines often do this to maximize fleet flexibility, keep aircraft ST Engineering secured S$838 mil- out of short-term maintenance lion ($591.5) in aerospace contracts in and maintain crew fl exibility. In ervice rst-quarter 2020 versus S$1.3 billion in As of April 24, the top three arked/eserve operators using this tactic rst-quarter 2019. The new deals include were Delta Air Lines, United MRO contracts from Chinese airlines for Airlines and Ryanair. Source: Aviation Week Fleet Discovery A320s and CFM56-7Bs and from a South- east Asian airline for 737 and Bombardier Boeing Makes Leadership, Structural Changes Q400 component support. Boeing has tapped Mark Jenks to lead a new Airplane Programs organization that the company expects to ensure both consistency and e ciency throughout its core commercial aircraft production e orts—one of several ideroe reached an agreement with changes aimed at aligning similar businesses. ftamblansetenesten to convert This step will combine management of its external and internal supply some de Havilland Dash 8s into Bodo- chains under Elizabeth Lund, currently Boeing Commercial Aircraft’s vice based air ambulances. president for the supply chain. Lund will oversee not only Boeing’s 3,000 external suppliers but also internal parts, subassembly and kit procure- Contract Source: SpeedNews ment coming out of Boeing’s sites around the world and feeding into its production facilities. Boeing also is combining management of its Seal Beach, California-based Customer Support organization under Mike Fleming, who is head of the company’s recently created Global Aviation Safety System as well as the 737 MAX return to service e ort. The change will streamline commercial customer support, including the need to deliver 420 stored MAXs to customers and another 385 stored MAXs in operators’ hands back into service, under a single leader. EASA Releases Cabin Air Circulation, Cleaning Guidance The European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) has released a safety information bulletin (SIB) series aimed at WHEELS AND BRAKES limiting the spread of the COVID-19 virus. The SIB urged operators to crack down on pilots and cabin crew members who may be using their own cleaning products on aircraft. Using unapproved cleaning agents could damage surfaces IT’S THAT SIMPLE or mix with other cleaning agents to create fumes that could endanger passengers and crew members, the agency says. EASA’s operational guidance also addressed the issue of minimizing the virus’s presence in cabins. Aircraft with high- e ciency particulate air (HEPA) fi lters in their cabin air system are well-equipped to minimize the spread of the novel coronavirus, but those without such systems should consider minimizing cabin air recirculation, the agency concludes. EASA’s latest information on containing the virus and the COVID-19 illness it triggers—updated April 7—revises previous guidance that recommended using air conditioning, which draws in fresh air, as much as possible. c TPAEROSPACE.COM

MRO INSIDEMRO MAY 2020 AviationWeek.com/ MR Safety & Regulatory Pandemic’s Ramifications Help Advance Remote Technology

It is tempting to think that aviation will derive nothing positive from the novel coronavirus pandemic. While parked aircraft, smaller operators, and a generally downsized industry are clear negatives, some changes forced by the spread of COVID-19 will benefit the industry long after the vi- ral menace is gone. In the regulatory compliance area, expansion of remote technology may end up being the most positive development. Using technology such as cameras was never prohibited, but its use was not readily embraced by certificate holders. In March 2020, the U.S. FAA’s Aircraft Certification Service, backed by several years of industry input, fast-tracked guidance on technology such as cameras and video conferencing for a range of required tasks, including conformity inspections as well as engineering and ground tests. On April 20, the FAA’s MRO shops are confident that remote technology can be used on everything from article inspections to facility audits. Flight Standards unit followed up with its own inspector guidance, providing guidance says. The technology also ered, says Gregg Brown, MRO Hold- a framework—but, importantly, not can be used live. For example, picture ings vice president of compliance and prescriptive limitations—that ex- an inspector watching a video feed of technical solutions. The inspection pands technology’s use deeper into an inspection and directing the camera took 3 hr., and the facility was ap - the MRO world. holder on what should be shown. proved for use right away. The guidance provides general con- Industry stakeholders are confident The company has loftier aspira- siderations of which inspectors should that the new guidance, combined with tions for VCT. It uses remote links be mindful when video and communi- the realities of the pandemic-related to connect a newly centralized plan- cation technology (VCT) is proposed to social distancing, will prompt rapid ning, engineering and supply chain help accomplish tasks. Among them: adoption of VCT. Certificate holders operations center with its multiple Video quality must be sufficient for the can use devices as simple as a smart airframe facilities. The setup means task and must provide some method phone to record evidence of accom- the company can put a team of experts of validating that whatever is being plishing tasks that the agency can in each MRO shop without their hav- recorded or broadcast is happening then validate. ing to physically be there, Brown says. where and when it is supposed to— Airframe services specialist MRO A similar approach could eventually think time stamps, for example. Holdings is among the aftermarket be used to help customers keep tabs The order does not exclude any spe- providers embracing the new tech- on aircraft in MRO Holdings’ facilities cific technologies or products from eli- nology. The company was in the midst with fewer airline technical represen- gibility, saying only that the tools must of a major facility expansion when the tatives on-site. be able to “accomplish the task.” The pandemic hit. A required FAA facility “I think [we will be] in a rapidly only exception is a general one: FAA inspection was due, but getting an in- evolving landscape for the foresee - personnel must use government-is- spector out during the pandemic was a able future,” Brown says. “This crisis sued devices for any tasks they per- nonstarter. Instead, the inspector was is going to spur some really innova - form. An example: Watching a video brought in virtually, using a video-con- tive thinking, and I’m really excited shot by a certificate holder on a gov- ferencing service. as a technology geek to watch this ernment-issued laptop or smart phone. In addition to serving as the FAA happen.” c VCT may “enhance processes and inspector’s “eyes and ears,” the link procedures” or may serve as an “al- allowed for digital photos to be taken —Sean Broderick in Washington ternative” to a given task, the FAA and electronic documents to be deliv- and Lindsay Bjerregaard in Chicago

MRO6 INSIDEMRO MAY 2020 AviationWeek.com/MRO MR Safety & Regulatory MR Safety & Regulatory

Pandemic’s Ramifications Help Advance ARSA UPDATE Remote Technology Remote Possibility It is tempting to think that aviation will derive nothing positive from the IN 2018, I USED MY SPACE IN THE the work both had done on remote novel coronavirus pandemic. While September edition of Inside MRO to connectivity. On March 31, the FAA’s parked aircraft, smaller operators, call out the aviation industry’s inside- Aircraft Certification Service issued its and a generally downsized industry the-box mentality. Having seen the gen- policy (as promised, albeit a year late), are clear negatives, some changes eral excitement stirred up by well-hyped and Flight Standards followed on April forced by the spread of COVID-19 will technological advancement, I could not 22 with a memorandum to its employ- benefit the industry long after the vi- believe the hidebound habits prevent- ees about “Video and Communication ral menace is gone. ing new (ubiquitous) tools to streamline Technology.” In the regulatory compliance area, aviation safety. You can find and review both poli- expansion of remote technology may The subject of my incredulity at the cies—along with the industry’s work to end up being the most positive development. Using technology such as time focused on FAA guidance for “vid- shape them—at arsa.org/remote-con- cameras was never prohibited, but eo-witnessing” testing or inspections nectivity. The bottom line is that the its use was not readily embraced by in design activities. “Are you kidding agency is openly acknowledging the certificate holders. In March 2020, me—videotaping?” I thought. use of any technology that achieves the the U.S. FAA’s Aircraft Certification For months, the agency and industry purpose of the regulation and will show Service, backed by several years of explored how both regulators and cer- compliance. industry input, fast-tracked guid- tificate holders could use broadly avail- Here’s the frustrating thing: The in- ance on technology such as cameras able remote connectivity tools and tech- dustry was already down that road. and video conferencing for a range of nologies to enhance the “capa bility to When ARSA’s Brett Levanto participated required tasks, including conformity ensure original design or production el- in an Aviation Week webinar on April inspections as well as engineering and ements are met and to supervise design, 22, an audience poll indicated that ground tests. On April 20, the FAA’s MRO shops are confident that remote technology can be used on everything from article inspections to facility audits. Flight Standards unit followed up with production, operation and maintenance more than two-thirds of the participants its own inspector guidance, providing guidance says. The technology also ered, says Gregg Brown, MRO Hold- activities or to perform inspections.” were exploring and using such tools be- a framework—but, importantly, not can be used live. For example, picture ings vice president of compliance and As a result of the engagement, 16 fore the pandemic. prescriptive limitations—that ex- an inspector watching a video feed of technical solutions. The inspection aviation trade associations delivered “In terms of remote connectivity, us- pands technology’s use deeper into an inspection and directing the camera took 3 hr., and the facility was ap - a draft advisory circular to the FAA ing tools to engage over distances is the MRO world. holder on what should be shown. proved for use right away. outlining basic standards for the use not a new emergence—it’s not some- The guidance provides general con- Industry stakeholders are confident The company has loftier aspira- of remote technologies. Within a few thing that the switches were flipped siderations of which inspectors should that the new guidance, combined with tions for VCT. It uses remote links months, the FAA concurred with the in- on just because suddenly inspectors, be mindful when video and communi- the realities of the pandemic-related to connect a newly centralized plan- dustry’s interests and promised explana- customers or other parts of the supply cation technology (VCT) is proposed to social distancing, will prompt rapid ning, engineering and supply chain tory guidance in relatively short order. chain had to stay home,” Levanto said help accomplish tasks. Among them: adoption of VCT. Certificate holders operations center with its multiple We were still waiting for that guidance during the webinar. He noted ARSA Video quality must be sufficient for the can use devices as simple as a smart airframe facilities. The setup means task and must provide some method phone to record evidence of accom- the company can put a team of experts as recently as a couple of months ago— members had made headway imple- of validating that whatever is being plishing tasks that the agency can in each MRO shop without their hav- it was still stuck inside the box—until menting use of remote tools based on recorded or broadcast is happening then validate. ing to physically be there, Brown says. COVID-19 became a global pandemic. one of the association’s key principles where and when it is supposed to— Airframe services specialist MRO A similar approach could eventually Then things started to move quickly. of compliance: “What’s not prohibited think time stamps, for example. Holdings is among the aftermarket be used to help customers keep tabs On March 15, the White House is- is allowed.” The order does not exclude any spe- providers embracing the new tech- on aircraft in MRO Holdings’ facilities sued a memorandum directing govern- We’re not completely out of the box cific technologies or products from eli- nology. The company was in the midst with fewer airline technical represen- ment agencies to realign operations to yet, but the industry, particularly those gibility, saying only that the tools must of a major facility expansion when the tatives on-site. slow the spread of the novel coronavi- who are just undertaking the use of be able to “accomplish the task.” The pandemic hit. A required FAA facility “I think [we will be] in a rapidly rus. Agency leaders were instructed to these connection tools, now have more only exception is a general one: FAA inspection was due, but getting an in- evolving landscape for the foresee - “utilize the full extent of their legal au- than a remote possibility of making rea- personnel must use government-is- spector out during the pandemic was a able future,” Brown says. “This crisis thority and discretion to execute this re- sonable connections. c sued devices for any tasks they per- nonstarter. Instead, the inspector was is going to spur some really innova - form. An example: Watching a video brought in virtually, using a video-con- tive thinking, and I’m really excited alignment” and to “maximize telework shot by a certificate holder on a gov- ferencing service. as a technology geek to watch this . . . while maintaining mission-critical Sarah MacLeod is managing member of ernment-issued laptop or smart phone. In addition to serving as the FAA happen.” c workforce needs.” Obadal, Filler, MacLeod & Klein and a VCT may “enhance processes and inspector’s “eyes and ears,” the link ARSA seized on that direction to re- founder and executive director of the procedures” or may serve as an “al- allowed for digital photos to be taken —Sean Broderick in Washington mind the industry and agency about Aeronautical Repair Station Association. ternative” to a given task, the FAA and electronic documents to be deliv- and Lindsay Bjerregaard in Chicago

MRO6 INSIDEMRO MAY 2020 AviationWeek.com/MRO AviationWeek.com/MRO INSIDEMRO MAY 2020 MRO7 MR Airline Insight Croatia Airlines Davor Bujan, technical director of Croatia Airlines, discusses with James Pozzi how the airline has adjusted its maintenance activities in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic.

How has the COVID-19 outbreak ent shift schedule—that is, minimizing affected Croatia Airlines’ the number of personnel in shifts. We CROATIA AIRLINES maintenance operations? have also faced difficulties in areas such as parts ordering and logistics. Croatia Airlines Technical Services We are using this opportunity to per- is maintaining our own fleet and perform some engine changes and minor forming line and base maintenance work on the rest of the fleet. Parking work for our customers. As for the and storage procedures will also re- Croatia Airlines Fact Box Croatia Airlines fleet regarding the quire some maintenance capabilities FOUNDED: COVID-19 situation, we are adapting during this period. 1989 to the changes in the flight schedule, FLEET: 14 aircraft, comprising five following all recommendations from From a workforce perspective, what Airbus A319-100s, two A320-200s our health authorities by using protec- measures has Croatia Airlines taken and seven de Havilland Dash 8-400s. tive equipment, and working in 14-day to ensure staff safety? REACTION TO COVID-19: The airline schedules with staff operating from expects to resume domestic op- home whenever possible. We are con- As already mentioned, we adapted to erations on May 11, following their tinuing to work in hangars with a re- the COVID-19 situation to completely suspension in mid-March. While duced capacity but are still performing follow recommendations from our most airports in Croatia remained base maintenance work on our aircraft health authorities and company crisis open during the novel coronavirus at our base in Zagreb. management staff. In every depart- pandemic, Croatia Airlines was only ment where working from home is pos- operating a once-daily flight from What about maintenance work for sible, we organized ourselves in a way Zagreb to Frankfurt. your third-party customers? that allowed work to continue without MAINTENANCE CAPABILITIES: Croatia stopping and that assured the continu- Airlines Technical Services, the air- Regarding customer aircraft, we had ing airworthiness of our fleet. Special line’s MRO affiliate, carries out A-D some slot cancellations in our hangars measures were issued, reducing risks checks on A320, de Havilland Dash due to travel restrictions for custom- to acceptable limits. For the personnel 8-400 and ATR 42/72 aircraft on both ers’ crews and technical person- that need to be at work sites, we orga- the airline’s fleet and for third-party nel. Line maintenance has basically nize working times and shift schedules customers. For line maintenance, it stopped for third parties since most to minimize the number of personnel operates several stations across Cro- airports are closed and most compa- present during working hours. We also atia, as well as one each in Sarajevo, nies have ceased operations. There is introduced 14-day rotations to allow Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Skopje, some limited line maintenance work isolation of staff if necessary. North Macedonia. The carrier also still taking place at Zagreb Airport to offers European Union Aviation Safety support our daily flight to Frankfurt Will the airline look to do more Agency (EASA) Part 147 approved and some activity at Brussels, but maintenance in-house? type training courses and EASA there has been a complete shutdown Part 145 approved training courses. at the rest of our line stations. The Our long-term strategy is to per - impact of COVID-19 has been immedi- form the majority of work in-house ate, has been hard and will continue with our own personnel. We invest a we will continue work on our fleet, to to be so. lot of resources to maintain a stable be completely ready when the time but flexible system in our technical comes for our aircraft to fly again. Will Croatia Airlines’ maintenance department, relying on highly skilled teams undertake any work on the personnel. We are fully capable of Are you looking at reevaluating carrier’s grounded aircraft? performing heavy maintenance on existing maintenance contracts? our fleet including six-year and 12- We are still performing heavy main- year checks, nondestructive testing, Yes, of course. We are in continuous tenance on one of our de Havilland shop work and engineering. However, talks with our partners and mainte- Dash 8-400s, but of course with limited despite this extreme new situation of nance providers to find mutually ac- capacity. From a manpower perspec- closed borders and limited travel, even ceptable solutions on how to overcome tive, this is taking place with a differ- within cities and within our country, this difficult and unexpected situation.

MRO8 INSIDEMRO MAY 2020 AviationWeek.com/MRO MR Airline Insight CROATIA AIRLINES

It is unprecedented that basically a complete industry has ground to a halt Croatia Airlines in such a short period of a time.

Davor Bujan, technical director of Croatia Airlines, discusses with How do you think the MRO industry James Pozzi how the airline has adjusted its maintenance activities will change as a result of the in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic. coronavirus? In the first period of recovery, per - How has the COVID-19 outbreak ent shift schedule—that is, minimizing haps during the next few months af- affected Croatia Airlines’ the number of personnel in shifts. We ter COVID-19, there will obviously be CROATIA AIRLINES maintenance operations? have also faced difficulties in areas reduced demand for MRO services such as parts ordering and logistics. due to a decrease in utilization of Croatia Airlines Technical Services We are using this opportunity to per- the worldwide fleet. If the crisis lasts is maintaining our own fleet and perform some engine changes and minor through the whole of 2020, it will prob- forming line and base maintenance work on the rest of the fleet. Parking ably result in more fleet retirements, work for our customers. As for the and storage procedures will also re- Croatia Airlines Fact Box which will impact the MRO industry dictions were made about how much Some heavy maintenance work has Croatia Airlines fleet regarding the quire some maintenance capabilities as well. Analysis and predictions re- skilled labor the industry would need FOUNDED: continued, albeit in reduced volumes, COVID-19 situation, we are adapting during this period. 1989 garding MRO capacities and demand in the future. Now we see many of the at the airline’s Zagreb facility. to the changes in the flight schedule, FLEET: 14 aircraft, comprising five that we had previously made need to big airlines retiring older aircraft, can- following all recommendations from From a workforce perspective, what Airbus A319-100s, two A320-200s be re-drawn and adjusted to this new celing new orders and reducing their ence to adapt to the new ball game. our health authorities by using protec- measures has Croatia Airlines taken and seven de Havilland Dash 8-400s. and completely different situation. fleets. In our opinion, MRO providers Investing in quality, fostering a fair tive equipment, and working in 14-day to ensure staff safety? REACTION TO COVID-19: The airline In the last few years, we have been that based their future on steady and and open relationship with customers schedules with staff operating from expects to resume domestic op- facing great demand for MRO servic- continuous growth by developing in- and investing in your own people will home whenever possible. We are con- As already mentioned, we adapted to erations on May 11, following their es—for instance, extremely high de- ternal capabilities and—most impor- pay off in the long run. Good planning tinuing to work in hangars with a re- the COVID-19 situation to completely suspension in mid-March. While mand for engine shop visits. Many new tant—investing in their own personnel and teamwork will ensure that we will duced capacity but are still performing follow recommendations from our most airports in Croatia remained facilities were opening and many pre- will have the knowledge and experi- fly again. c base maintenance work on our aircraft health authorities and company crisis open during the novel coronavirus at our base in Zagreb. management staff. In every depart- pandemic, Croatia Airlines was only ment where working from home is pos- operating a once-daily flight from What about maintenance work for sible, we organized ourselves in a way Zagreb to Frankfurt. HONEYCOMB MACHINED HONEYCOMB SANDWICH PANELS DETAILED PANELS CARGO LINERS SPECIALTY LAMINATES your third-party customers? that allowed work to continue without MAINTENANCE CAPABILITIES: Croatia stopping and that assured the continu- Airlines Technical Services, the air- Regarding customer aircraft, we had ing airworthiness of our fleet. Special line’s MRO affiliate, carries out A-D some slot cancellations in our hangars measures were issued, reducing risks checks on A320, de Havilland Dash due to travel restrictions for custom- to acceptable limits. For the personnel 8-400 and ATR 42/72 aircraft on both ers’ crews and technical person- that need to be at work sites, we orga- the airline’s fleet and for third-party nel. Line maintenance has basically nize working times and shift schedules customers. For line maintenance, it stopped for third parties since most to minimize the number of personnel Get Key Developments operates several stations across Cro- and Analysis of the airports are closed and most compa- present during working hours. We also atia, as well as one each in Sarajevo, nies have ceased operations. There is introduced 14-day rotations to allow Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Skopje, Commercial Aviation Market some limited line maintenance work isolation of staff if necessary. North Macedonia. The carrier also still taking place at Zagreb Airport to offers European Union Aviation Safety Delivered each business support our daily flight to Frankfurt Will the airline look to do more Agency (EASA) Part 147 approved and some activity at Brussels, but maintenance in-house? day, Aviation Daily will type training courses and EASA provide you the data and there has been a complete shutdown Part 145 approved training courses. at the rest of our line stations. The Our long-term strategy is to per - intelligence you need to impact of COVID-19 has been immedi- form the majority of work in-house stay ahead of this ate, has been hard and will continue with our own personnel. We invest a we will continue work on our fleet, to complex market. INTEGRATED COMPOSITES to be so. lot of resources to maintain a stable be completely ready when the time TECHNOLOGY & SOLUTIONS but flexible system in our technical comes for our aircraft to fly again. Will Croatia Airlines’ maintenance department, relying on highly skilled Visit aviationweek.com/AviationDaily teams undertake any work on the personnel. We are fully capable of Are you looking at reevaluating to download a complimentary edition carrier’s grounded aircraft? performing heavy maintenance on existing maintenance contracts? our fleet including six-year and 12- EMPOWER YOUR WORKFORCE WITH A GROUP OR SITE LICENSE We are still performing heavy main- year checks, nondestructive testing, Yes, of course. We are in continuous For more information visit: aviationweek.com/AVDgroup The Gill Corporation International Headquarters tenance on one of our de Havilland shop work and engineering. However, talks with our partners and mainte- 4056 Easy Street • El Monte, CA 91731 USA Dash 8-400s, but of course with limited despite this extreme new situation of nance providers to find mutually ac- Phone: 626-443-4022 • FAX: 626-350-5880 capacity. From a manpower perspec- closed borders and limited travel, even ceptable solutions on how to overcome www.thegillcorp.com • Email: [email protected] tive, this is taking place with a differ- within cities and within our country, this difficult and unexpected situation.

MRO8 INSIDEMRO MAY 2020 AviationWeek.com/MRO AviationWeek.com/MRO INSIDEMRO MAY 2020 MRO9 MR Components

A DISRUPTIVE INFLUENCE

Component MROs focus on the post-pandemic market Paul Seidenman and David J. Spanovich San Francisco ith global air travel severely disrupted The International Air Transport Association (IATA) recently projected an overall air traffic decline of 38% in 2020, by the COVID-19 pandemic, the com- which would “likely be the floor” for any corresponding W ponent MRO market is expected to decline in component MRO. “Since many components are take a hit, at least in the short term. Yet suppliers maintained ‘on condition,’ their maintenance demand is di- of engine and aerostructure components main- rectly proportional to fleet utilization,” says Adam Guthorn, a director of the Alton Aviation consultancy in New York. tain that demand is generally holding steady de- Guthorn says that with a significant portion of the fleet spite projected decreases in MRO spending and parked, and airlines throughout the world focused on cash some pricing pressure. conservation, increased aircraft retirements and material availability, along with cannibalization and borrowing of Prior to the pandemic, the component MRO market for components from stored aircraft are expected to reduce 2020 was estimated at $17.5 billion. However, now a decrease demand for MRO services in the near term. of $5.4-8.3 billion is projected in component MRO spending Component MRO will face competition from surplus parts over three years, according to Aviation Week Commercial and inventory “burn-down,” notes Richard Brown, managing Fleet and MRO Forecast data. director of the NAVEO consultancy in London. At the same “The effects of the COVID-19 pandemic are likely to be felt time, midlife aircraft—those 12-17 years old—will become yet for at least 18-24 months; perhaps even longer as the dramatic another competitive source of supply in a component MRO knock-on effects resonate through economies, airlines and market that he predicts could be down 25-30% this year. MROs,” says Brian Kough, Aviation Week’s senior director “While the drop in air travel demand will encourage air- of forecasts and aerospace insights. lines to retire aircraft in their sunset or end-of-life phase, we

MRO10 INSIDEMRO MAY 2020 AviationWeek.com/MRO MR Components

The market for used serviceable material, pictured in inventory at the GE Aviation Material warehouse, has not undergone substantial change, although some brokers are being cautious about buying material that may have to be held longer.

with global demand for shop visits and the resulting actions on MRO capacity. “There has been no substantial change to the USM market, although we have seen some brokers being cautious with buying inventory that may require being held longer in order to find demand,” he says. Although it is difficult to say when traffic will recover, Repetto cites a report from IATA that predicts a return to 2019 traffic levels by the end of 2020. That, he says, will mean stored aircraft will be required to meet demand. “For the USM market, it will be important to monitor closely the actions that aircraft and engine operators, as well as owners, take with respect to utilization and future shop visits,” Repetto notes. Component traders and leasing companies are taking the long view, confident that the downturn in MRO will not be long-lasting. “For the commercial aircraft engine and airframe component market, all the expected trends have shifted with the focus on COVID-19,” says Anca Mihalache, vice president of engine trading for APOC Aviation, a Netherlands-based component leasing, trading and aircraft part-out company. A DISRUPTIVE “Over the last three years, there had been a steady increase in narrowbody aircraft engine sale prices and lease rates, which were expected to continue or remain at the same level. Now we can see prices slightly decreasing.” INFLUENCE Mihalache points out specifically lease rates for engines powering the Boeing 737NG and the Airbus A320neo, pre- GE dicting that they might not return to what they were only a few months ago. Even so, she expects those engines will still Component MROs focus on the post-pandemic market will start seeing the premature retirement of midlife aircraft have a high value after the pandemic passes. that are most likely to require engine shop visits, as well as The CFM56 could, in fact, be a bright spot. Mihalache cites Paul Seidenman and David J. Spanovich San Francisco airframe and component maintenance,” Brown says. “That the protracted Boeing 737 MAX grounding as the reason be- will likely mean more availability of used serviceable mate- hind ongoing demand for CFM56 components, with those for ith global air travel severely disrupted The International Air Transport Association (IATA) re- rial (USM) as retirements increase and more aircraft are the CFM56-7B generating the highest pricing increase. This cently projected an overall air traffic decline of 38% in 2020, parked.” He notes that airline capacity could be down 70-80% has also led to higher prices on CFM56-3C1 material, but on by the COVID-19 pandemic, the com- which would “likely be the floor” for any corresponding in April 2020. a lower scale, she says. Those engines, respectively, power W ponent MRO market is expected to decline in component MRO. “Since many components are “While more USM will benefit the airlines, it could also the 737NG and 737-400, many of which Mihalache says have take a hit, at least in the short term. Yet suppliers maintained ‘on condition,’ their maintenance demand is di- challenge the USM traders who might see an excess supply of been converted from passenger to cargo aircraft. of engine and aerostructure components main- rectly proportional to fleet utilization,” says Adam Guthorn, some part types and pricing pressure on inventory previously “The cargo operators are now the ones generating high a director of the Alton Aviation consultancy in New York. thought to be valued higher,” Brown cautions. demand. That’s why I think the narrowbodies—the Boeing tain that demand is generally holding steady de- Guthorn says that with a significant portion of the fleet Classic/NG and Airbus A320, will always do well,” Mihalache spite projected decreases in MRO spending and parked, and airlines throughout the world focused on cash PRICING DYNAMICS states. some pricing pressure. conservation, increased aircraft retirements and material USM can be characterized as a spot market that will fluctu- As for the availability of USM, Mihalache believes that ma- availability, along with cannibalization and borrowing of ate with demand, says Horacio Repetto, general manager of terial shortages will continue. “Even if some airlines do not Prior to the pandemic, the component MRO market for components from stored aircraft are expected to reduce GE Aviation Materials (GEAM), a major USM supplier. “As survive, their aircraft will be redirected to other operators,” 2020 was estimated at $17.5 billion. However, now a decrease demand for MRO services in the near term. many MROs are currently slowing down and furloughing she says. “Not many will be retired, so I expect the material of $5.4-8.3 billion is projected in component MRO spending Component MRO will face competition from surplus parts employees, the USM market dynamic is that demand will shortage on the CFM56 and V2500 engine types to remain.” over three years, according to Aviation Week Commercial and inventory “burn-down,” notes Richard Brown, managing follow that trend,” he says. Jasper van den Boogaard, APOC Aviation’s vice president Fleet and MRO Forecast data. director of the NAVEO consultancy in London. At the same Those factors, Repetto explains, will result in sellers of airframe acquisition and trading, predicts demand for “The effects of the COVID-19 pandemic are likely to be felt time, midlife aircraft—those 12-17 years old—will become yet seeking to align supply with demand, rather than sell when airframe components will remain steady. Even if aircraft for at least 18-24 months; perhaps even longer as the dramatic another competitive source of supply in a component MRO demand is low in lieu of preserving value. “Cash pressure are grounded, he asserts, they will still require calendar- knock-on effects resonate through economies, airlines and market that he predicts could be down 25-30% this year. dynamics could shift that behavior, and it will be important driven maintenance checks and gear overhauls. “At APOC, MROs,” says Brian Kough, Aviation Week’s senior director “While the drop in air travel demand will encourage air- to monitor the market leaders,” he remarks. we focus on two main asset types—the A320 family and the of forecasts and aerospace insights. lines to retire aircraft in their sunset or end-of-life phase, we Repetto predicts the USM market should continue to align 737NG series, which make up over half the world’s fleet,”

MRO10 INSIDEMRO MAY 2020 AviationWeek.com/MRO AviationWeek.com/MRO INSIDEMRO MAY 2020 MRO11 MR Components says van den Boogaard, who is also an International Society Vallair has observed ongoing interest in CFM56-5A engine of Transport Aircraft Traders (ISTAT) certified appraiser. parts, which “seems to go against perceived wisdom,” Ward “Historically, these have always recovered first after any says. “It appears that brokers want to fill up their stock.” [adverse] market influence.” Karolis Jurkevicius, APOC Aviation’s vice president of land- CHALLENGES ing gear trading and leasing, reports that depending on landing One of the major challenges in the narrowbody aircraft engine gear type, there has been a 5-10% decrease in landing gear lease and airframe component market is a scarcity of life limited rates, with the likelihood of a higher percentage drop due to an parts (LLP), says Justin Blockley, commercial director of increase in assets available now—given the COVID-19 situation. Bii.aero, located near London. He cautions that while demand should recover soon, prices will “LLPs for narrowbodies have steadily increased in de- stay at a lower level for a longer period. “I’m sure that prices mand and pricing since the problems with the 737 MAX,” for some types of landing gear will come back to normal levels, says Blockley, whose company is a components and services as demand will still be high. However, others will remain low provider specializing in the 737NG, 747, 757, 767 and Bom- and never recover,” Jurkevicius says. bardier regional jet families. “This is the same for CFM56- As the COVID-19 crisis abates, there will be “a massive 5A material, as airlines are looking to utilize the existing upsurge in demand” for components, predicts Martin Ward, fleet longer. Simply, demand has outstripped supply caused director of material management and supply chain for Vallair, by capacity constraints of new aircraft deliveries.” a Luxembourg-headquartered aircraft leasing, trading, MRO He also notes that aircraft retirements will continue to and teardown company. have a bearing on component MRO, but given current con- In fact, Ward reports that “progressive companies” al- ditions, decisions are fluid, with “retirement plans being re- ready are buying up packages of spares from their providers written almost monthly,” he notes. for leading commercial airliner types, at bargain prices, as “The coronavirus is hitting the pause button on both new airlines look for ways to resume flying as fast as they can. aircraft production as well as demand,” Blockley says. “Those “Aircraft in storage will have been subjected to daily/weekly airlines with weak balance sheets are likely to move more and checks to ensure everything is still operational so engineers more to leasing options in order to protect cash and move and maintenance teams will know exactly what their needs large assets to a variable cost model.” will be,” he stresses, adding that packages of spares continue Asked if the new generation of Airbus products, and the to be offered to Vallair. “If those packages come with the eventual return of the 737 MAX are likely to push many more right traceability and paperwork, and they suit our own fleet aging aircraft into retirement and affect the component re- of leased aircraft, then we’re interested.” pair market, Blockley says it may be too soon to tell. “But I think that aircraft which have already been through a heavy Technicians reassemble nacelle components at Vallair’s check will definitely complete their life cycle,” he says. maintenance facility in Montpellier, France. He also states that with fuel prices “the lowest in living

VALLAIR

MRO12 INSIDEMRO MAY 2020 AviationWeek.com/MRO MR Components says van den Boogaard, who is also an International Society Vallair has observed ongoing interest in CFM56-5A engine memory,” the economics of the new low-fuel-burn fleets, gotiating advantage at point of sale; the independent re- of Transport Aircraft Traders (ISTAT) certified appraiser. parts, which “seems to go against perceived wisdom,” Ward compared to their large capital acquisition costs, throw the pair market is less developed, and surplus material is not “Historically, these have always recovered first after any says. “It appears that brokers want to fill up their stock.” investment algorithm into serious question. “This, coupled yet a major factor.” [adverse] market influence.” with the huge backlog in engine MRO, means it is likely that According to Rick Stine, president of StandardAero’s com- Karolis Jurkevicius, APOC Aviation’s vice president of land- CHALLENGES the retirement age will take several years to return to the ponents, helicopters and accessories division, OEMs will be ing gear trading and leasing, reports that depending on landing One of the major challenges in the narrowbody aircraft engine levels once seen—about 15 years—especially on narrowbody taking a greater position in component MRO but largely gear type, there has been a 5-10% decrease in landing gear lease and airframe component market is a scarcity of life limited aircraft. It could, in fact, go as high as 18,” he predicts. through affiliated networks. rates, with the likelihood of a higher percentage drop due to an parts (LLP), says Justin Blockley, commercial director of One example of engine MRO demand Blockley cites is the “In the past, the legacy engines tended to have a more increase in assets available now—given the COVID-19 situation. Bii.aero, located near London. CFM56-5, which he says is “still in massive demand” for both open structure around what repairs a third-party shop could He cautions that while demand should recover soon, prices will “LLPs for narrowbodies have steadily increased in de- overhaul and teardown as operators look to replace LLPs perform relative to MRO,” Stine explains. “Today’s newer- stay at a lower level for a longer period. “I’m sure that prices mand and pricing since the problems with the 737 MAX,” with partly run components in an effort to match engine life generation engines require an MRO provider to be part of for some types of landing gear will come back to normal levels, says Blockley, whose company is a components and services with postponed airframe retirements. the authorized OEM network. Only then can it get access as demand will still be high. However, others will remain low provider specializing in the 737NG, 747, 757, 767 and Bom- He predicts that OEMs will have a great presence in the to repairs and technical data.” and never recover,” Jurkevicius says. bardier regional jet families. “This is the same for CFM56- MRO market after the pandemic, but he thinks this will be He stresses that even with such authorization the avail- As the COVID-19 crisis abates, there will be “a massive 5A material, as airlines are looking to utilize the existing countered by an increase in parts manufacturing approval ability of data is still limited and at times requires a third- upsurge in demand” for components, predicts Martin Ward, fleet longer. Simply, demand has outstripped supply caused (PMA) and designated engineering representative (DER) party MRO to pay additional fees or royalties to qualify director of material management and supply chain for Vallair, by capacity constraints of new aircraft deliveries.” options, “as operators refuse to be bullied into accepting repair capabilities. “This new reality will be a major game a Luxembourg-headquartered aircraft leasing, trading, MRO He also notes that aircraft retirements will continue to the OEM pricing structure,” says Blockley. changer as OEMs continue to take more control of the MRO and teardown company. have a bearing on component MRO, but given current con- market,” he says. In fact, Ward reports that “progressive companies” al- ditions, decisions are fluid, with “retirement plans being re- OEM GROWTH Coupled with that, Stine predicts there will be a disincli- ready are buying up packages of spares from their providers written almost monthly,” he notes. Alton Aviation Consultancy’s Adam Guthorn says 60-70% nation among the OEMs to continue doing touch labor. “I for leading commercial airliner types, at bargain prices, as “The coronavirus is hitting the pause button on both new of the component repair market is held by airlines and see the OEMs not wanting to turn wrenches in the future,” airlines look for ways to resume flying as fast as they can. aircraft production as well as demand,” Blockley says. “Those independent MROs, with the component and system he says. “I think this plays into how they are approaching “Aircraft in storage will have been subjected to daily/weekly airlines with weak balance sheets are likely to move more and OEMs holding the remainder. “I would expect that the engine component repair, which is to develop networks they checks to ensure everything is still operational so engineers more to leasing options in order to protect cash and move OEMs could gain another 5% of that over the next decade, can use to support their fleet. The MRO facility’s ability to and maintenance teams will know exactly what their needs large assets to a variable cost model.” through new contract wins on the newest-generation air- match its skills and expertise to the OEM’s needs will be will be,” he stresses, adding that packages of spares continue Asked if the new generation of Airbus products, and the craft types,” he says. “That is where the OEMs hold a ne- critical to supporting them.” c to be offered to Vallair. “If those packages come with the eventual return of the 737 MAX are likely to push many more right traceability and paperwork, and they suit our own fleet aging aircraft into retirement and affect the component re- of leased aircraft, then we’re interested.” pair market, Blockley says it may be too soon to tell. “But I think that aircraft which have already been through a heavy Technicians reassemble nacelle components at Vallair’s check will definitely complete their life cycle,” he says. Quickly fi nd what you need with an maintenance facility in Montpellier, France. He also states that with fuel prices “the lowest in living intuitive, searchable database of products and services. Connect with customers around the world through your company’s profi le on the premier global MRO marketplace that never closes.

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Eliaeth litni Director of Sales eliaeth.litniaviationweek.com 913-967-1348

VALLAIR

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ing a “quote and hold” program allowing customers to continue sending units to AJW Technique for technical Maintenance providers shift to aircraft storage evaluation without incurring any in- and minor repairs during fl eet groundings terim costs. It is also benefi ting from carriers trying to maintain their fl eets in airworthy condition during the groundings, with some even choosing he novel coronavirus pandemic services, along with aircraft parking and to perform heavy maintenance inspec- has done much to stunt the requests for virtual table inspection—a tions while their fl eet is grounded. growth of commercial aftermar- function that allows customers to in- In Italy, Naples-based MRO Ati- ket activity so far in 2020, with MRO spect parts from a remote location. tech was approaching peak season facilities reducing operations given In its line maintenance business, in March for base maintenance, with the mass grounding of aircraft fl eets which numbers 12 stations in Swit- customer airlines parked up in slots at worldwide. zerland, Europe and Spain, SR Tech- full capacity about to undergo heavy Fleet inactivity has meant a slow- nics’ customers are fl ying less, but the checks. “We had a few slot cancella- down in maintenance work and a wave MRO has a solid backlog of requests tions from customers planned for the of work order cancellations by airlines to keep aircraft airworthy. “Cur- end of April and in May so far,” says looking to preserve liquidity. In early rently, short-term aircraft storage Pietro Pascale, Atitech accountable April, consultancy Oliver Wyman maintenance, out-of-storage checks manager and managing director. Like painted a bleak picture of the market and return-to-service maintenance is many shops in Europe, Atitech tem- for this year, cutting its previous annu- high in demand, and we are prepared porarily reduced its workforce during al market projection by $17 -35 billion. in case our customers require long- the peak novel coronavirus period in mid-March but plans to start ramping up services again from May 4. Now it Some MROs are o ering is focusing on storage services. “We aircraft storage during the are talking with customers in order to support them with parking and stor-

ES IS current eet groundings. age programs, and looking at how to reschedule new slots,” he adds. UK-based MRO Caerdav, which has capacity to house up to 20 aircraft at its site at a former RAF airbase in St. Athan, Wales, is working with airlines looking to park their aircraft. Ben Lee, the company’s commercial director, tells Aviation Week that “there has defi nitely been an increase. A lot of airlines and lessors are exploring options with their handbacks. Airports were very quick in o ering support, but they don’t have the capacity for everyone.” Longer-term, it predicts the aftermar- term storage care and maintenance,” On the positive side, some analysts ket may not return to its pre-COVID-19 an SR Technics representative says. are predicting the MRO segment size until well into 2022. AJW Technique, the Montreal-based may bounce back within a two-year In this new reality, MRO shops are parts repair shop of the AJW Group, timeframe. In the near term, while losing scheduled maintenance work, told Aviation Week in mid-April that it existing maintenance orders aren’t and airlines are seeking to defer pay- had 2-3 weeks of workload. “But we are being fulfi lled, some predict a surge ments or renegotiate existing MRO slowly seeing a drop-o in demand and in work post-novel-coronavirus. “The contract terms. This has especially adjusting to match customer require- real crunch will be when this crisis is affected smaller shops lacking the ments,” says Sajedah Rustom, CEO of over, and airlines want to get their air- resources to weather the storm, but AJW Technique. craft back in the skies,” Caerdav’s Lee larger players are also feeling the im- Like SR Technics and other MRO says. “There is going to be a real bub- pact on operations. providers, Rustom says the parts ble of MRO work to prepare aircraft Swiss maintenance provider SR specialist is experiencing an increase to return to service. Demand for MRO Technics has seen workloads fall off in demand in certain areas. “We are slots is going to rocket. While many since the downturn, and airline custom- mostly noticing customer requests airlines have their own facilities, there ers are already requesting payment de- for holding of components until they will undoubtedly be a signifi cant over- ferrals. At the same time, more leasing are required,” she says, a factor that spill into the independents to keep up companies are requesting repossession played a part in the company launch- with capacity,” he predicts. c

MRO1 INSIDEMRO MAY 2020 AviationWeek.com/MRO MR Operations ing a “quote and hold” program allow- include everything from integrated ing customers to continue sending Drones & Digital planning and execution to dynamic units to AJW Technique for technical workforce management and mixed- Maintenance providers shift to aircraft storage evaluation without incurring any in- AAR is using augmented reality, drones and reality collaboration. and minor repairs during fl eet groundings terim costs. It is also benefi ting from AAR’s Miami facility is trying out carriers trying to maintain their fl eets digital development to increase efficiency AR for hands-free workflow and com- in airworthy condition during the Lee Ann Shay Miami munication. It is using RealWear groundings, with some even choosing HMT-1 headsets and Librestream’s he novel coronavirus pandemic services, along with aircraft parking and to perform heavy maintenance inspec- hat it takes augmented reality platform. has done much to stunt the requests for virtual table inspection—a tions while their fl eet is grounded. for MROs With AR, a junior technician can growth of commercial aftermar- function that allows customers to in- In Italy, Naples-based MRO Ati- W to become show a master technician what he ket activity so far in 2020, with MRO spect parts from a remote location. tech was approaching peak season more digital, as a ho- or she is doing and get instructions facilities reducing operations given In its line maintenance business, in March for base maintenance, with listic operation, can overlaid onto the tasks. AR will save the mass grounding of aircraft fl eets which numbers 12 stations in Swit- customer airlines parked up in slots at be seen by the trans- master technicians’ time spent walk- worldwide. zerland, Europe and Spain, SR Tech- full capacity about to undergo heavy formation process ing around the hangars answering Fleet inactivity has meant a slow- nics’ customers are fl ying less, but the checks. “We had a few slot cancella- underway at AAR. questions, similar to how AAR’s en- down in maintenance work and a wave MRO has a solid backlog of requests tions from customers planned for the While drone inspec- gineers field frequent questions from

of work order cancellations by airlines to keep aircraft airworthy. “Cur- end of April and in May so far,” says tions and augmented AAR PHOTOS their desks. looking to preserve liquidity. In early rently, short-term aircraft storage Pietro Pascale, Atitech accountable reality are the atten- AAR also is using AR to grant per- April, consultancy Oliver Wyman maintenance, out-of-storage checks manager and managing director. Like tion grabbers, there missions before technicians cut and painted a bleak picture of the market and return-to-service maintenance is many shops in Europe, Atitech tem- are many behind the drill sheet metal. A technician can use for this year, cutting its previous annu- high in demand, and we are prepared porarily reduced its workforce during scenes digital trans- al market projection by $17 -35 billion. in case our customers require long- the peak novel coronavirus period in formation projects mid-March but plans to start ramping there as well. up services again from May 4. Now it AAR recently shifted its digital Some MROs are o ering is focusing on storage services. “We strategy to focus on external and in- aircraft storage during the are talking with customers in order to ternal customers, as opposed to just support them with parking and stor- being customer-centric. Taking this

ES IS current eet groundings. age programs, and looking at how to more holistic approach of “how we reschedule new slots,” he adds. make ourselves more efficient, more UK-based MRO Caerdav, which has intelligent and make better decisions, capacity to house up to 20 aircraft at allows us to be a better provider of its site at a former RAF airbase in services to our customers,” says Rahul St. Athan, Wales, is working with air- Ghai, AAR’s chief digital officer. This lines looking to park their aircraft. Ben all leads “to a more productive work- Lee, the company’s commercial direc- force that gets us closer to our vision tor, tells Aviation Week that “there has of being a digital company,” he adds. defi nitely been an increase. A lot of air- Ghai, who joined AAR in July 2019 lines and lessors are exploring options after nearly 12 years with United Air- with their handbacks. Airports were lines, most recently as managing di- very quick in o ering support, but they rector of digital technology, says the don’t have the capacity for everyone.” aftermarket service company started Longer-term, it predicts the aftermar- term storage care and maintenance,” On the positive side, some analysts building a 2-3 year road map for digi- AAR technicians ensure the aircraft configuration for the drone inspection. If it ket may not return to its pre-COVID-19 an SR Technics representative says. are predicting the MRO segment tal services that spans the company’s is set up for a Boeing 737-700 instead of an -800, for example, the drone will not size until well into 2022. AJW Technique, the Montreal-based may bounce back within a two-year portfolio. fly because it is relying on a digital twin. In this new reality, MRO shops are parts repair shop of the AJW Group, timeframe. In the near term, while “One of the biggest challenges has losing scheduled maintenance work, told Aviation Week in mid-April that it existing maintenance orders aren’t been where to start, because there is says Ghai. Today, tasks cards and doc- the hands-free video, voice and photo and airlines are seeking to defer pay- had 2-3 weeks of workload. “But we are being fulfi lled, some predict a surge so much opportunity,” says Ghai. “We umentation are still mostly paper, so capabilities to collaborate with a re- ments or renegotiate existing MRO slowly seeing a drop-o in demand and in work post-novel-coronavirus. “The have to be strategic about where we technicians walk back and forth be - mote expert before making the cut. contract terms. This has especially adjusting to match customer require- real crunch will be when this crisis is place our bets.” tween the aircraft to get their next So far, technicians and quality as- affected smaller shops lacking the ments,” says Sajedah Rustom, CEO of over, and airlines want to get their air- Think of those bets as building assignment and task cards. “We’re surance managers report positive en- resources to weather the storm, but AJW Technique. craft back in the skies,” Caerdav’s Lee blocks. reimagining their processes, where gagement with the tools. larger players are also feeling the im- Like SR Technics and other MRO says. “There is going to be a real bub- For MRO, the digital blocks include they all have a mobile device and ev- pact on operations. providers, Rustom says the parts ble of MRO work to prepare aircraft going paperless, making inventory erything they need is on that device,” DRONES Swiss maintenance provider SR specialist is experiencing an increase to return to service. Demand for MRO smarter and making MRO more effi- he says. “The idea is to tie images, AAR’s Miami facility also is piloting Technics has seen workloads fall off in demand in certain areas. “We are slots is going to rocket. While many cient—including the use of drones and documents and historical log page drone aircraft inspections. The pro- since the downturn, and airline custom- mostly noticing customer requests airlines have their own facilities, there augmented reality (AR). data together so that we start to run cess could take 1-2 years, from bring- ers are already requesting payment de- for holding of components until they will undoubtedly be a signifi cant over- AAR hopes to be a paperless op - the learning algorithms against it,” ing in off-the-shelf technology to con- ferrals. At the same time, more leasing are required,” she says, a factor that spill into the independents to keep up eration in 18-24 months, resulting in says Ghai. ducting live pilots, getting it certified companies are requesting repossession played a part in the company launch- with capacity,” he predicts. c a 15% efficiency gain for technicians, The goal to become paperless is to and scaling it.

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AAR is using a Donecle drone for AAR Boeing 737 general visual inspections An AAR technician used augmented (GVI) and has seen at least a 50% re- reality to obtain approval before he duction in time compared to its tradi- cut and drilled an aircraft structure. tional manual procedure. The drone flies itself on a preplanned flight and takes 1,500-1,900 pictures per narrowbody aircraft. “The quality and the data is what gets us really excited,” says Ghai. AAR plans to conduct 150 inspections during the pilot phase. As AAR pursues FAA certification, an inspector is reviewing the photos and identifying follow-ups and lightning strikes, in parallel. The drone system identifies more abnormalities, about 10-20% of which are false positives, but AAR says there is still an advantage over people and equipment moving around the aircraft. To get the GVI-by-drone process certified, there are two options. Ei- ther Boeing approves it and adds it to its aircraft maintenance manuals, or AAR can work with a consortium to gain approval. AAR is pursuing both, including working with a group that includes the FAA, Boeing, Airbus, United Airlines, American Airlines and some component OEMs, says Matt Kammerait, AAR’s director of digital and emerging technology. In- dustry sources say the FAA liked the consortium idea pursued by Airbus and airlines for A320 approval. “We think a rising tide raises all boats.” says Kammerait. “It’s good for everybody if everyone has visibility into what’s possible. He thinks it will take another 9-18 months to obtain FAA certification for drone inspections inside the hangar. For the long term, the MRO would everything from investigations to au- digital and became part of Aprise, it like to be able to use drones to inspect dit findings, customer feedback, injury is seeing more proactive reports. aircraft for lightning strike damage at reporting and import/export compli- To solve a problem in Miami—lots airport gates, but that requires differ- ance. The tools within it—including of aircraft movements—AAR also de- ent authorizations. self-audits, decision trees and investi- veloped HangarNotes. It provides a While the maintenance staff have gation checklists—allow managers to sky view of the hangar floor, with each found it easy to learn how to use the immediately review and fix problems. aircraft rendered to scale and color- drone, they asked for extra recharge- “Every employee has access to the coded to reflect its status. It is a way to able batteries to be included as part of dashboards because we think it’s good see where aircraft are, by tail number, the process, because the battery needs to be open and see what’s happening in work overview and customer. to recharge after each flight. the building,” says Shachar Hacohen, Although AAR created Hangar- director of corporate environment, Notes to solve a problem, it is consid- DIGITAL DETAILS health and safety. ering commercializing it. As part of its digital journey, AAR also This system also includes Safety The combination of digital projects has developed in-house a closed-loop Management System dashboards, makes “AAR an easier company to process for quality and safety manage- which AAR built in-house. AAR re - work with,” both inside and out, says ment. The tool, called Aprise, includes ports that since this program went Ghai. c

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AAR is using a Donecle drone for AAR Australian LCCs was also a factor, as Boeing 737 general visual inspections An AAR technician used augmented Beyond Borders they generally outsourced their heavy (GVI) and has seen at least a 50% re- reality to obtain approval before he maintenance overseas. And the emer- duction in time compared to its tradi- cut and drilled an aircraft structure. Australian MRO providers look to boost gence of new avionics technology and tional manual procedure. The drone aircraft types required costly upgrades flies itself on a preplanned flight and competitiveness but face regulatory costs to legacy maintenance capabilities that takes 1,500-1,900 pictures per nar- not all providers could afford. rowbody aircraft. “The quality and Adrian Schofield Brisbane, Australia One way to strengthen the Austra- the data is what gets us really excited,” lian MRO sector would be to focus on says Ghai. ustralia’s MRO industry has con- Ipswich, Queensland-based TAE Aero- types of work where labor comprises a AAR plans to conduct 150 inspec- tracted in recent years, in stark space. At that time, the industry includ- smaller proportion of total cost, Sand- tions during the pilot phase. Acontrast to the rapid growth of ed multiple sites around the country erson says: Engine heavy maintenance As AAR pursues FAA certification, the sector in Asia. However, Austra- performing airframe and engine heavy is one such area. While airframe main- an inspector is reviewing the photos lian MRO operators see opportunities maintenance for airlines, Sanderson tenance costs are weighted in favor of and identifying follow-ups and light- to expand their role in the global mar- said during the Aviation Week MRO labor rather than parts, the ratio for en- ning strikes, in parallel. The drone ket by focusing on areas of work where Australasia conference on March 12. gine work is essentially reversed. Land- system identifies more abnormalities, they still hold competitive advantages. However, business has declined in ing gear heavy maintenance also has a about 10-20% of which are false posi- Like the rest of the aviation world, Australia since the 1990s, with more higher ratio of parts cost versus labor. tives, but AAR says there is still an the immediate priority of Australian heavy maintenance sent overseas and By boosting this type of work, Aus- advantage over people and equipment MRO providers will be surviving the many facilities closed. Now about half tralia could better leverage its skilled moving around the aircraft. downturn caused by the COVID-19 of the more than 400 commercial air- workforce, Sanderson believes. It To get the GVI-by-drone process crisis and adjusting to the new indus- craft in Australia have heavy checks would also make labor costs relative certified, there are two options. Ei- try landscape. In the longer term, the performed overseas, and almost no to other countries less of an issue. ther Boeing approves it and adds it to prospects for the local MRO sector turbofan heavy maintenance is done in- However, he warns that expanding in its aircraft maintenance manuals, or could depend on boosting efficiency country, Sanderson says. Australia is these areas of work would require sub- AAR can work with a consortium to and participating more effectively in ranked in the top 20 for GDP, but there stantial capital investment. gain approval. AAR is pursuing both, the Asia-Pacific market. But there is are no Australian companies in the top When growth eventually returns to including working with a group that broad consensus that achieving these 100 largest global aerospace companies. the Asian airline sector following the includes the FAA, Boeing, Airbus, goals will require greater government There were multiple reasons for the current crisis, MRO providers in the United Airlines, American Airlines support and regulatory reform. slide, Sanderson says. These include region may struggle to meet demand. and some component OEMs, says Australia had “quite an extensive reduced labor-cost competitiveness, More work could be brought to Austra- Matt Kammerait, AAR’s director of MRO industry” about 20 years ago, the growth of the Asian MRO industry, lia if it has the infrastructure to sup- digital and emerging technology. In- notes Andrew Sanderson, CEO of and scale disadvantages. The rise of port it, Sanderson says. dustry sources say the FAA liked the consortium idea pursued by Airbus and airlines for A320 approval. “We think a rising tide raises all boats.” says Kammerait. “It’s good for everybody if everyone has visibility into what’s possible. He thinks it will take another 9-18 months to obtain FAA certification for drone inspections inside the hangar. For the long term, the MRO would everything from investigations to au- digital and became part of Aprise, it like to be able to use drones to inspect dit findings, customer feedback, injury is seeing more proactive reports. aircraft for lightning strike damage at reporting and import/export compli- To solve a problem in Miami—lots airport gates, but that requires differ- ance. The tools within it—including of aircraft movements—AAR also de- ent authorizations. self-audits, decision trees and investi- veloped HangarNotes. It provides a While the maintenance staff have gation checklists—allow managers to sky view of the hangar floor, with each found it easy to learn how to use the immediately review and fix problems. aircraft rendered to scale and color- drone, they asked for extra recharge- “Every employee has access to the coded to reflect its status. It is a way to able batteries to be included as part of dashboards because we think it’s good see where aircraft are, by tail number, the process, because the battery needs to be open and see what’s happening in work overview and customer. to recharge after each flight. the building,” says Shachar Hacohen, Although AAR created Hangar- director of corporate environment, Notes to solve a problem, it is consid- DIGITAL DETAILS health and safety. ering commercializing it. As part of its digital journey, AAR also This system also includes Safety The combination of digital projects has developed in-house a closed-loop Management System dashboards, makes “AAR an easier company to TAE engineers perform heavy maintenance process for quality and safety manage- which AAR built in-house. AAR re - work with,” both inside and out, says checks on a Honeywell TPE331 turboprop engine. ment. The tool, called Aprise, includes ports that since this program went Ghai. c TAE

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Companies and state governments had not approached Qantas before, in- Pacific region, StandardAero has to need to become better at collaborat- cluding some major players. have “15 certificates on the wall from ing, says Sanderson. The states are This was partly due to increased various countries,” notes Dennington. competing against each other to gain foreign airline service to Brisbane, Many of these national regulators need a larger share of the MRO industry, where Qantas has its main heavy main- to visit to confirm the company com- but there should be a more national tenance base. It also shows that some plies with their standards, even though approach in many cases, he argues. airlines are looking beyond the tradi- it has completed audits by the world’s Increasing the amount of defense- tional centers for third-party MRO in major authorities. related MRO business can be a good other countries, says Crawford. In general, MRO providers in Aus- strategy, and has been successful for Qantas so far has only one signifi- tralia “are not making the margins TAE. Australia generally prefers to cant third-party heavy maintenance they were 20 years ago,” Dennington keep defense maintenance in the coun- customer. It performs heavy structural says. Margins in the low single-digits try, Sanderson notes. Picking up more checks on Hawaiian Airlines A330s. are becoming common. This makes it defense work allows MRO companies Scale advantages can be harder to harder for maintenance organizations to diversify and help protect their busi- achieve for Australian MRO providers to absorb higher regulatory costs and ness when there is a downturn in the dealing with small operators. However, remain viable, and it is “even harder commercial sector. this can be overcome by fostering for new entrants to join the market.” Qantas has the largest MRO opera- greater cooperation among custom- In Australia, “the regulatory author- tion in Australia, which is primarily ers, says Matt Dennington, general ity and rules are really out of step” with focused on its own fleet. However, the manager of Brisbane-based Standard- today’s aviation industry, says Ken Can- carrier can offer significant advan- Aero Australia. nane, executive director of the Aviation tages for third-party work despite the StandardAero mainly performs MRO Business Association (Amroba). dominance of Asian MRO providers, Pratt & Whitney engine maintenance As well as its safety and oversight says Paul Crawford, head of base main- for a range of customer types including roles, the Civil Aviation Safety Author- tenance for Qantas. general aviation. The company is proud ity (CASA) needs to be more active in Crawford admits that many South- to support smaller operators, but deal- removing barriers to Australian aero- east Asian countries and MRO operators ing with them all individually can be space companies doing business over- have a labor cost edge over Australian “very time-consuming and . . . cumber- seas, Cannane says. The Australian businesses. Qantas’ unit costs “are not some” from an efficiency perspective, regulator should be looking for ways going to be comparable to MROs in the Dennington says. to harmonize approvals so Australian Asian region—that’s a given,” he says. For this reason, StandardAero en- certifications can be more readily ac- But Qantas has greater efficiency courages smaller customers to collab- cepted in other countries. in many cases and can offer reduced orate and group their fleets together “The Australian [supplemental type turn time for heavy maintenance jobs, in dealings with the maintenance certificate] document doesn’t mean Crawford says. Cutting days or even a provider. This is “a true win-win,” much worldwide, and that’s something week off maintenance visits can result Dennington says, as it gives the cus- we’ve got to get reversed,” Cannane in a “revenue gain that far outweighs tomers greater pricing leverage than says. He adds that “we need CASA to the unit cost difference.” they could obtain individually, and for be actively chasing [overseas] markets,” This is a valuable benefit to airlines, StandardAero it allows operational particularly in the Asia-Pacific region. if they consider the business case as a efficiencies and reduces time spent Amroba has sent submissions on whole rather than focusing just on la- managing separate accounts. these topics to a senate inquiry es- bor costs, says Crawford. Airlines need MRO executives generally agree tablished to examine the state of the to “factor in what efficiencies [MRO that the government needs to be part general aviation industry and CASA’s providers] can bring to the customer.” of the solution to long-term growth for effectiveness. Among Amroba’s recom- The airline has traditionally not han- the Australian MRO industry, in terms mendations is that CASA establish an dled much third-party maintenance, of reducing regulatory costs and cross- international office to pursue agree- says Crawford. However, in the past border restrictions. ments with other countries that would 3-4 years it has “started to branch out Regulatory requirements have pro- help open markets for Australian into third-party opportunities.” gressively become more stringent and companies. The inquiry was launched Crawford stresses that the Qantas more expensive, says Dennington. For in December, and findings are due in fleet remains the top priority, and what used to be a “common sense de- November 2021. other customers would only be accom- cision,” operators now “have to jump Cannane notes that while previous modated if there are vacant slots. But through red tape to make it happen,” government inquiries have examined when the carrier sees opportunities, it which diminishes efficiency. the performance of CASA, this one will look to fill unused capacity. Globalization of the MRO business will also look at whether the regula- There was growing interest from is supposed to work in the industry’s tions themselves are appropriate. “We other airlines in having work done by favor, but in reality any gains from need a completely new approach from Qantas before COVID-19, Crawford cross-border transactions are “stifled” the government, and I believe that says. The carrier was getting “more by taxes and duties, Dennington says. will come about through this senate and more inquiries” from airlines that For engine MRO work in the Asia- inquiry,” he says. c

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Companies and state governments had not approached Qantas before, in- Pacific region, StandardAero has to now. need to become better at collaborat- cluding some major players. have “15 certificates on the wall from ing, says Sanderson. The states are This was partly due to increased various countries,” notes Dennington. competing against each other to gain foreign airline service to Brisbane, Many of these national regulators need a larger share of the MRO industry, where Qantas has its main heavy main- to visit to confirm the company com- redict. but there should be a more national tenance base. It also shows that some plies with their standards, even though approach in many cases, he argues. airlines are looking beyond the tradi- it has completed audits by the world’s Increasing the amount of defense- tional centers for third-party MRO in major authorities. related MRO business can be a good other countries, says Crawford. In general, MRO providers in Aus- strategy, and has been successful for Qantas so far has only one signifi- tralia “are not making the margins onnect. TAE. Australia generally prefers to cant third-party heavy maintenance they were 20 years ago,” Dennington keep defense maintenance in the coun- customer. It performs heavy structural says. Margins in the low single-digits try, Sanderson notes. Picking up more checks on Hawaiian Airlines A330s. are becoming common. This makes it defense work allows MRO companies Scale advantages can be harder to harder for maintenance organizations to diversify and help protect their busi- achieve for Australian MRO providers to absorb higher regulatory costs and ness when there is a downturn in the dealing with small operators. However, remain viable, and it is “even harder commercial sector. this can be overcome by fostering for new entrants to join the market.” Qantas has the largest MRO opera- greater cooperation among custom- In Australia, “the regulatory author- tion in Australia, which is primarily ers, says Matt Dennington, general ity and rules are really out of step” with focused on its own fleet. However, the manager of Brisbane-based Standard- today’s aviation industry, says Ken Can- carrier can offer significant advan- Aero Australia. nane, executive director of the Aviation tages for third-party work despite the StandardAero mainly performs MRO Business Association (Amroba). dominance of Asian MRO providers, Pratt & Whitney engine maintenance As well as its safety and oversight says Paul Crawford, head of base main- for a range of customer types including roles, the Civil Aviation Safety Author- tenance for Qantas. general aviation. The company is proud ity (CASA) needs to be more active in Crawford admits that many South- to support smaller operators, but deal- removing barriers to Australian aero- east Asian countries and MRO operators ing with them all individually can be space companies doing business over- have a labor cost edge over Australian “very time-consuming and . . . cumber- seas, Cannane says. The Australian businesses. Qantas’ unit costs “are not some” from an efficiency perspective, regulator should be looking for ways going to be comparable to MROs in the Dennington says. to harmonize approvals so Australian Asian region—that’s a given,” he says. For this reason, StandardAero en- certifications can be more readily ac- But Qantas has greater efficiency courages smaller customers to collab- cepted in other countries. in many cases and can offer reduced orate and group their fleets together “The Australian [supplemental type turn time for heavy maintenance jobs, in dealings with the maintenance certificate] document doesn’t mean Crawford says. Cutting days or even a provider. This is “a true win-win,” much worldwide, and that’s something week off maintenance visits can result Dennington says, as it gives the cus- we’ve got to get reversed,” Cannane in a “revenue gain that far outweighs tomers greater pricing leverage than says. He adds that “we need CASA to the unit cost difference.” they could obtain individually, and for be actively chasing [overseas] markets,” This is a valuable benefit to airlines, StandardAero it allows operational particularly in the Asia-Pacific region. if they consider the business case as a efficiencies and reduces time spent Amroba has sent submissions on whole rather than focusing just on la- managing separate accounts. these topics to a senate inquiry es- bor costs, says Crawford. Airlines need MRO executives generally agree tablished to examine the state of the usinesscritical information, predictive intelligence and to “factor in what efficiencies [MRO that the government needs to be part general aviation industry and CASA’s providers] can bring to the customer.” of the solution to long-term growth for effectiveness. Among Amroba’s recom- connections with opportunities and people. hats how The airline has traditionally not han- the Australian MRO industry, in terms mendations is that CASA establish an the Aviation eek etwork helps you make decisions dled much third-party maintenance, of reducing regulatory costs and cross- international office to pursue agree- and build your business. says Crawford. However, in the past border restrictions. ments with other countries that would 3-4 years it has “started to branch out Regulatory requirements have pro- help open markets for Australian Delivering awardwinning ournalism, deep data and into third-party opportunities.” gressively become more stringent and companies. The inquiry was launched analytics, worldclass events, and contentdriven Crawford stresses that the Qantas more expensive, says Dennington. For in December, and findings are due in marketing services, our core principle is helping our fleet remains the top priority, and what used to be a “common sense de- November 2021. customers succeed. other customers would only be accom- cision,” operators now “have to jump Cannane notes that while previous modated if there are vacant slots. But through red tape to make it happen,” government inquiries have examined when the carrier sees opportunities, it which diminishes efficiency. the performance of CASA, this one Lets grow your usiness. will look to fill unused capacity. Globalization of the MRO business will also look at whether the regula- aviationweek.com/productservices There was growing interest from is supposed to work in the industry’s tions themselves are appropriate. “We other airlines in having work done by favor, but in reality any gains from need a completely new approach from Qantas before COVID-19, Crawford cross-border transactions are “stifled” the government, and I believe that says. The carrier was getting “more by taxes and duties, Dennington says. will come about through this senate and more inquiries” from airlines that For engine MRO work in the Asia- inquiry,” he says. c now. redict. onnect. MRO18 INSIDEMRO MAY 2020 AviationWeek.com/MRO MR Technology NS ENI

y airlines are not using predictive maintenance Predictive maintenance needs to be more than mere prediction to be e ective—it as muc as epected needs to link to speci c MRO actions.

ig data, the Internet of Things, digital twinning and Jean-Philippe Beaujard, general director of Revima’s machine learning have become buzzwords in aviation Flightwatching unit, does not see most European airlines and many other industries. But for aircraft MRO, the taking predictive maintenance to a high level. For his com- buzz must translate into new and benefi cial forms of predic- pany, the carriers most active in using the new tools are in tive maintenance to have practical value. Asia and the Middle East. Of course, maintenance has already been at least partially “Asia is a very dynamic market, open to innovation in predictive for a while. Engine health monitoring has long been a predictive maintenance and other forms of digitalization,” staple of engine support, cutting costs and keeping powerplants Beaujard says. Greater interest in predictive techniques on wing longer. For nonengine components, solid reliability in the Middle East stems from a harsh environment that analyses can estimate probable failure rates after certain presents more maintenance challenges. “OEM monitoring levels of hours or cycles have been reached, and planners can does not work well in the region, they get failures before set inspection or removal rates based on these probabilities. other carriers,” he explains. Extreme heat and sandstorms What is new is that the predictive process for nonengine are usually the culprits. components is moving closer to the engine model: that is, The number of carriers doing predictive maintenance is using multiple sensors and other data streams to make more still “very limited,” says Yann Cambier, a senior consultant accurate predictions for each aircraft part or system . at ICF and a former AAR executive. He adds, “Most airlines are not sophisticated enough to implement the new processes RA O AOO required to exploit predictive maintenance technologies.” However, these new techniques are still very much a work in Yet the rewards are real and benefi ts substantial. Cambier progress. For example, Boeing is seeing continued growth in points to Delta Air Lines, which claims a dramatic reduction demand for its predictive tools, which include the work of data in maintenance-related cancellations using Airbus’s Skywise scientists as well as artifi cial intelligence and machine learning. predictions for its A320s and A330s. Signifi cantly, Delta’s But Tonya DelMaestro, chief marketing o cer of Boeing Glob- error rate, or no faults found, was only 5%. al Services, agrees with others that so far the serious users of Airbus and Delta are now forming a digital alliance to these tools comprise only a small percentage of all airlines. develop new predictive solutions, with more data, to o¡ er to About 10% of Airbus’s A320 family is now on the OEM’s pre- other airlines. Airbus representative Martin Fendt says Air- dictive maintenance program, according to the manufacturer. bus predictive maintenance reduces unscheduled events by Philippe Bordel, digital commercial manager of AFI KLM 10-50%, depending on the components. The biggest improve- E&M, estimates that less than 5% of the world’s top 400 ments are for air conditioning and pressurization systems, or so airlines have made any real progress with their pre- electrical power, landing gear and brakes and pneumatics. dictive maintenance programs. Among airlines that have Boeing estimates that each removal of a component that is publicly stated that they are working on predictive mainte- near failure saves several hundreds of thousands of dollars. nance, “most are co-developing their systems with a third Most of these savings are derived from avoiding revenue party,” Bordel adds. losses from schedule interruptions. Boeing Global Services Frank Martens, head of customer development for digital Analytics Director Stefan Karisch says there are also sav- products at Lufthansa Technik (LHT), says the number of ings from making a repair early, before a component fails . airlines using predictive maintenance on nonengine com- The airframe OEM and its airline partners generally ponents with the latest big data technologies is limited but choose to work on components that are causing the most growing fast. “We may be talking about 50 airlines world- interruptions, rather than just the easy, “low-hanging fruit,” wide,” he suggests. He distinguishes between mere predic- DelMaestro says. tion and predictive links to actual MRO actions, which he Cathay Pacifi c Airways has adopted Honeywell’s Forge says LHT’s Aviatar platform provides. predictive solution for its A330 auxiliary power units. Honey-

MRO INSIDEMRO MAY 2020 AviationWeek.com/MRO MR Technology LUFTHANSA TECHNIK NS ENI well estimates Forge can prevent about 35% of APU failures. DATA CONTROL Forge also covers 10 other ATA chapters. For example, it Martens agrees that data control is essential: “More and can reduce delays and cancellations related to pneumatic more OEMs restrict access to operational data for airlines, components by 30%, with a no-fault-found rate of only 2%, MROs and other players . . . this is not acceptable.” says product director Josh Melin. For hydraulics, the results Karisch says Boeing predictive maintenance always starts are even stronger, eliminating 80% of delay events and 40% with a partnership discussion with the airline, which owns of minimum equipment list events. False positives are less the operating data. “We decide what we want to accomplish, than 5%, Honeywell reports. then work back to analytic issues and how much data is Digital manager Jacques Guichard estimates that AFI required,” he says. “It’s a partnership.” KLM E&M’s Prognos tool can prevent one flight cancellation Martens says lack of data interfaces within an airline also y airlines are per year for each ATA chapter of components it is applied can hamper predictions, a problem Aviatar was designed to to, not including delays avoided. address. Pilot unions and work councils may restrict the use not using predictive maintenance Predictive maintenance needs to be more than mere prediction to be e ective—it Martens says potential gains depend on the operational of data, while some governments also hamper data sharing. as muc as epected needs to link to speci c MRO actions. environment and MRO services used by airlines. For some Guichard acknowledges predictive maintenance drastically components, reductions in unscheduled removals can reach changes the way airlines work with OEMs and MROs. “Aviation 80%, while for some other components reductions are 30- regulations will also need to evolve, with regulators having to 40% and for others just 10%. find a way to adapt to this new way of maintaining aircraft.” Beaujard says customers do not tell him how many un- Beaujard says another hurdle is that airlines often want ig data, the Internet of Things, digital twinning and Jean-Philippe Beaujard, general director of Revima’s scheduled removals are being eliminated, but they are ap- quick results, but “it takes three to four months to solve machine learning have become buzzwords in aviation Flightwatching unit, does not see most European airlines parently very satisfied with the service. “Today in the Middle a new problem.” and many other industries. But for aircraft MRO, the taking predictive maintenance to a high level. For his com- East, 100% of our recommendations are followed, so they AFI KLM E&M buzz must translate into new and benefi cial forms of predic- pany, the carriers most active in using the new tools are in have a high degree of confidence in them,” he observes. tive maintenance to have practical value. Asia and the Middle East. Predictive results also vary with an aircraft’s age. For Of course, maintenance has already been at least partially “Asia is a very dynamic market, open to innovation in example, the Boeing 777 can generate four times as many predictive for a while. Engine health monitoring has long been a predictive maintenance and other forms of digitalization,” alerts as the 737NG, and the 777X provides four times as staple of engine support, cutting costs and keeping powerplants Beaujard says. Greater interest in predictive techniques many as the 777. But Karisch says Boeing is also working on wing longer. For nonengine components, solid reliability in the Middle East stems from a harsh environment that on predictions for older aircraft and notes: “There is a lot of analyses can estimate probable failure rates after certain presents more maintenance challenges. “OEM monitoring operating data you can leverage from a 737. Adding sensors levels of hours or cycles have been reached, and planners can does not work well in the region, they get failures before is not always the answer in the first place.” set inspection or removal rates based on these probabilities. other carriers,” he explains. Extreme heat and sandstorms Fendt explains that best-practice predictive maintenance What is new is that the predictive process for nonengine are usually the culprits. processes are similar for previous and next-generation air- components is moving closer to the engine model: that is, The number of carriers doing predictive maintenance is craft, because value comes from monitoring the life cycle using multiple sensors and other data streams to make more still “very limited,” says Yann Cambier, a senior consultant of components, not of the aircraft itself. Airbus can retro- accurate predictions for each aircraft part or system . at ICF and a former AAR executive. He adds, “Most airlines fit older jets with FOMAX, an onboard data-capture and are not sophisticated enough to implement the new processes transmission module that boosts the parameters that can RA O AOO required to exploit predictive maintenance technologies.” be captured on an A320 from 400 to 24,000. However, these new techniques are still very much a work in Yet the rewards are real and benefi ts substantial. Cambier “On the latest-generation aircraft, we can increase the AFI KLM E&M estimates that its Prognos tool can prevent progress. For example, Boeing is seeing continued growth in points to Delta Air Lines, which claims a dramatic reduction number of sensors being monitored, which means more one flight cancellation per year for each ATA chapter of components to which it is applied. demand for its predictive tools, which include the work of data in maintenance-related cancellations using Airbus’s Skywise data is being fed back to our systems, thereby enabling us scientists as well as artifi cial intelligence and machine learning. predictions for its A320s and A330s. Signifi cantly, Delta’s to define more efficient predictive maintenance algorithms,” Airlines must be willing to share operations data with a But Tonya DelMaestro, chief marketing o cer of Boeing Glob- error rate, or no faults found, was only 5%. Guichard observes. But Martens argues that it also makes provider because they trust that the data will be used to al Services, agrees with others that so far the serious users of Airbus and Delta are now forming a digital alliance to sense to retrofit sensors on older aircraft. He stresses that benefit the airline, says DelMaestro. Then airlines must these tools comprise only a small percentage of all airlines. develop new predictive solutions, with more data, to o¡ er to nonsensor data is important as well, for example repair data trust predictions enough to change maintenance practices About 10% of Airbus’s A320 family is now on the OEM’s pre- other airlines. Airbus representative Martin Fendt says Air- from MRO shops. or proactively schedule component maintenance events in dictive maintenance program, according to the manufacturer. bus predictive maintenance reduces unscheduled events by “Older aircraft can be very interesting,” Beaujard says. advance. Securing that trust requires holding no-fault-found, Philippe Bordel, digital commercial manager of AFI KLM 10-50%, depending on the components. The biggest improve- For older Airbus A300s and Boeing 747s, Flightwatching or false positive, rates to a minimum. E&M, estimates that less than 5% of the world’s top 400 ments are for air conditioning and pressurization systems, must usually go onboard to get data. But with a flight-data DelMaestro agrees that connectivity also can be a problem. or so airlines have made any real progress with their pre- electrical power, landing gear and brakes and pneumatics. acquisition unit installed, the company can use ACARS to Moving data off of aircraft can be tough if a carrier has a tight dictive maintenance programs. Among airlines that have Boeing estimates that each removal of a component that is query and receive data remotely. And sensors retrofit on schedule. “Data is not always their highest priority,” she notes. publicly stated that they are working on predictive mainte- near failure saves several hundreds of thousands of dollars. bleed systems of older 737s can also improve predictions Fendt says airlines need to understand the technology, nance, “most are co-developing their systems with a third Most of these savings are derived from avoiding revenue for these components. invest in it and modify processes and tools. “Data scientists party,” Bordel adds. losses from schedule interruptions. Boeing Global Services But with all these benefits, why has progress toward pre- should be integrated into the standard airline environment Frank Martens, head of customer development for digital Analytics Director Stefan Karisch says there are also sav- dictive maintenance been so slow? Cambier asserts that the and data competencies added to the maintenance opera- products at Lufthansa Technik (LHT), says the number of ings from making a repair early, before a component fails . biggest hurdle to predictive maintenance is lack of engineer- tions. Further, the value chain needs to transform its test- airlines using predictive maintenance on nonengine com- The airframe OEM and its airline partners generally ing expertise: “Only a few players in the industry have the bench and no-fault-found policies to the predictive approach, ponents with the latest big data technologies is limited but choose to work on components that are causing the most expertise to effectively implement predictive maintenance, to avoid in-service degradation of components.” growing fast. “We may be talking about 50 airlines world- interruptions, rather than just the easy, “low-hanging fruit,” decades of MRO expertise with large owned fleets or third- Many elements have to fall into place to make predictive wide,” he suggests. He distinguishes between mere predic- DelMaestro says. party contracts.” Other elements that must mature are data maintenance work. But as experience with the process is tion and predictive links to actual MRO actions, which he Cathay Pacifi c Airways has adopted Honeywell’s Forge sharing, better and cheaper connectivity and a willingness gained, obstacles become easier to overcome. Despite data- says LHT’s Aviatar platform provides. predictive solution for its A330 auxiliary power units. Honey- to remove serviceable units. sharing conflicts and other issues, progress is being made.c

MRO INSIDEMRO MAY 2020 AviationWeek.com/MRO AviationWeek.com/MRO INSIDEMRO MAY 2020 MRO21 MR Aircraft Analysis

just under 3,100 flight hours, but the 737NG MRO Market COVID-19 pandemic has gutted airline schedules around the world, and an in- With most of the fleet idled or parked due to the creasing number of airliners are being COVID-19 pandemic, assessing the MRO market parked. The aircraft that are still flying are being utilized far less than normal. has become problematic Put another way, much of the NG fleet is not accruing maintenance activity Frank Jackman Washington or is doing so at a much slower rate. “Fleet-wide, there are simply a lot of t’s complicated. That is really the a compound annual rate of 2.7% be - NGs sitting on the ground,” Marcontell only way to describe the outlook tween now and the end of 2029. But says. “They’re not flying at all.” Ifor the Boeing 737NG aftermarket. that projected overall decline masked In a recent report on the impact of If the 737 MAX had not been a flat to modestly increasing value in COVID-19 on commercial MRO, the grounded 13 months ago and the the shorter term. MRO demand for Oliver Wyman consultancy said that novel coronavirus had not morphed 737-700s, -800s and -900s was pegged depending on when recovery from the into a global public health crisis and at roughly $14.0 billion for 2020, with coronavirus begins, global MRO de- then a pandemic, the outlook for the engine maintenance accounting for mand could decline 19-39% this year NG would have been much easier to about 40%, or $5.6 billion, of that total. from original forecasts. But the firm also said: “Predicting with any certainty fleet decisions and the effect on maintenance, repair and overhaul activity in

JOEPRIESAVIATION.NET response to COVID-19 is nearly impossible at this time, given the dis- ease’s evolving nature.” The report also stated that while many of the aircraft that are parked will eventually return to service, “experience from previous deep shocks suggests that many aircraft will stay parked and then move straight into retirement.” Marcontell, one of the authors of that re - port, said data analyzed over the past two weeks paints a grim picture. “We’re already parked at the bottom,” he says, With many 737NG aircraft parked, Over the next two years, 737NG MRO adding that the question now is how much of fleet is accruing mainte- demand was forecast to increase to long the industry stays at the bot- nance more slowly—or not at all. approximately $14.6 billion before be- tom. “Is the bottom four weeks or is ginning a gradual decline to just under the bottom 12 weeks?” And then once determine. “Previously, you would $10.9 billion in 2029. During that pe- the passenger market does start to have seen a steady decline in MRO riod, the size of the in-service 737NG pick up again, how long is the recov- work for the NG as the MAX replaced fleet was expected to drop from 6,352 ery? The current prevailing thought it,” says David Marcontell, senior vice this year to 4,576 in 2029, a decline of at Oliver Wyman is that traffic levels president at Oliver Wyman and gen- roughly 28%. will not return to what they were in eral manager of CAVOK, its technical The total value of the MRO market January of this year until 2022. consulting and service division. over the decade had been estimated The ongoing grounding of the 737 That is essentially what Aviation at $137.5 billion, but now it is hard to MAX has had a more straightforward Week Fleet & MRO Forecast data pinpoint the value 10 years out. impact on the 737NG market. With show. The value of the 737NG MRO The MRO forecast also assumed the MAX grounded, airlines that had market was projected to decline by average annual aircraft utilization of planned to phase out their NGs in fa-

MRO22 INSIDEMRO MAY 2020 AviationWeek.com/MRO MR Aircraft Analysis just under 3,100 flight hours, but the vor of the newer model are keeping the however. “Obviously, everything is and eventually led to the temporary 737NG MRO Market COVID-19 pandemic has gutted airline NGs, which can be seen in the passen- going to be way, way down because grounding of a few dozen aircraft. AD schedules around the world, and an in- ger-to-freighter conversion market. fleets aren’t flying,” Marcontell says. 2019-20-02, which became effective With most of the fleet idled or parked due to the creasing number of airliners are being Even before COVID-19, feedstock for “And even when we do start flying, it Oct. 3, requires repetitive inspections COVID-19 pandemic, assessing the MRO market parked. The aircraft that are still flying 737-800 conversions had dried up, and will be a slow buildup. But on a per-unit for cracking of the “left and right-hand are being utilized far less than normal. some expect it could be more than a basis, you would have imagined that an side outboard chords of frame fittings has become problematic Put another way, much of the NG fleet year after the MAX returns to service NG would have gone into retirement or and failsafe straps” at a certain station is not accruing maintenance activity before a significant number of -800s been relegated to a lesser utilization and that the structure be repaired if Frank Jackman Washington or is doing so at a much slower rate. are available for conversion. In the in- role as it was replaced by the MAX.” any cracking is found. The AD is ap- “Fleet-wide, there are simply a lot of terim, cargo operators are looking at But that is not happening now. The NG plicable to 737-600, -700-, -700C, -800, t’s complicated. That is really the a compound annual rate of 2.7% be - NGs sitting on the ground,” Marcontell other options. In March, Aeronauti- is going to stay in service longer than it -900 and -900ER models. only way to describe the outlook tween now and the end of 2029. But says. “They’re not flying at all.” cal Engineers Inc. said it was seeing would have previously, he says. Earlier in 2019, Boeing informed Ifor the Boeing 737NG aftermarket. that projected overall decline masked In a recent report on the impact of renewed interest in 737 Classic con- the FAA that certain 737NG and If the 737 MAX had not been a flat to modestly increasing value in COVID-19 on commercial MRO, the versions from customers looking for AIRWORTHINESS DIRECTIVES MAX leading-edge slat tracks might grounded 13 months ago and the the shorter term. MRO demand for Oliver Wyman consultancy said that cargo lift alternatives until the -800 In the past 18 months, the FAA has have been improperly manufactured novel coronavirus had not morphed 737-700s, -800s and -900s was pegged depending on when recovery from the feedstock frees up. issued a number of airworthiness di- and could be susceptible to prema - into a global public health crisis and at roughly $14.0 billion for 2020, with coronavirus begins, global MRO de- The MAX is expected to be recer- rectives (AD) that apply to the 737NG, ture failure or cracks. As many as 133 then a pandemic, the outlook for the engine maintenance accounting for mand could decline 19-39% this year tified this year, but Marcontell says primarily for inspections. NGs and 179 MAX aircraft worldwide NG would have been much easier to about 40%, or $5.6 billion, of that total. from original forecasts. But the firm the “damage has been done” to the The most notable of the ADs re - were affected. The FAA subsequently also said: “Predicting program in terms of its potential. Oli- sulted from the discovery of cracks issued an AD requiring a mainte - with any certainty fleet ver Wyman is predicting a significant last year in what is known as the pickle nance records check to determine if decisions and the effect decline in the number of MAX deliv- fork, a structure that attaches the wing any of the slat track assemblies had on maintenance, repair eries expected over the next 10 years, to the fuselage. The cracks were found been removed, an inspection of the and overhaul activity in with Boeing losing market share to the on multiple 737-800s that had accu- assemblies for a suspect lot number

JOEPRIESAVIATION.NET response to COVID-19 Airbus A320, A321 and A321XLR. mulated 35,578-37,329 flight cycles. or a lot number that could not be de - is nearly impossible at From an MRO perspective, the out- Cracks were first discovered during termined, and applicable on-condi- this time, given the dis- look for the 737NG is far from bleak, a passenger-to-freighter conversion tion actions. c ease’s evolving nature.” The report also stated that while many of the aircraft that are parked will eventually return to service, “experience from previous deep shocks suggests that many aircraft will stay parked and then move straight into retirement.” Reliale News Marcontell, one of the authors of that re - Concise Format port, said data analyzed over the past two weeks SpeedNews is the source for relevant insights, news and information powering paints a grim picture. commercial aviation. ent electronically, top executives rely on its uniue, uick “We’re already parked read format to at the bottom,” he says, With many 737NG aircraft parked, Over the next two years, 737NG MRO adding that the question now is how ➤ onitor competition with timely announcements from airlines, aviation much of fleet is accruing mainte- demand was forecast to increase to long the industry stays at the bot- suppliers and manufacturers, including aircraft orders transactions. nance more slowly—or not at all. approximately $14.6 billion before be- tom. “Is the bottom four weeks or is ➤ ncover new business opportunities resulting from merger and acuisition ginning a gradual decline to just under the bottom 12 weeks?” And then once activity, and product developments. determine. “Previously, you would $10.9 billion in 2029. During that pe- the passenger market does start to ➤ onnect and network with industry leaders at one of peedews world class have seen a steady decline in MRO riod, the size of the in-service 737NG pick up again, how long is the recov- work for the NG as the MAX replaced fleet was expected to drop from 6,352 ery? The current prevailing thought events. it,” says David Marcontell, senior vice this year to 4,576 in 2029, a decline of at Oliver Wyman is that traffic levels president at Oliver Wyman and gen- roughly 28%. will not return to what they were in Discover Leads Win Deals Grow Your usiness eral manager of CAVOK, its technical The total value of the MRO market January of this year until 2022. consulting and service division. over the decade had been estimated The ongoing grounding of the 737 That is essentially what Aviation at $137.5 billion, but now it is hard to MAX has had a more straightforward Learn More at Week Fleet & MRO Forecast data pinpoint the value 10 years out. impact on the 737NG market. With show. The value of the 737NG MRO The MRO forecast also assumed the MAX grounded, airlines that had aviationweek.com/speednews market was projected to decline by average annual aircraft utilization of planned to phase out their NGs in fa-

MRO22 INSIDEMRO MAY 2020 AviationWeek.com/MRO AviationWeek.com/MRO INSIDEMRO MAY 2020 MRO23 MR Mobile MRO Structures

Lindsay Bjerregaard Chicago

1. Inflatable Hangars 1 feature Thermohall insulated cladding for easy climate control and low lifetime Company: Buildair maintenance costs, thanks to ease of repair Specifications: Buildair’s modular, inflatable and an exposed truss system for access to hangars can be delivered to customers via mechanical systems, cranes or equipment. air freight or standard sea containers and Turkish Airlines is using a Rubb hangar for erected easily without construction-permit heavy maintenance during the construction requirements. MRO customers are using of its new MRO campus at Istanbul Airport. Buildair’s hangars for line and base It will later dismantle the temporary hangar maintenance operations such as service for potential use at another airport. bulletin retrofits, cabin interior refurbishment marketplace.aviationweek.com/ and C checks. Buildair says the transparent company/rubb-building-systems structure of its hangars enables satellite Wi-Fi or GPS signals to be checked from inside. 4. Weather-Resistant Portable Hangars The company is now working to develop Company: Aviatech designs combining airtight technology with Specifications: Aviatech’s portable aircraft solar panels connected to inflation motors to hangars are built to be deployed quickly enable the assembly of hangars at remote and easily on any terrain at a lower cost sites with reduced access to electrical power. 2 than traditional structures. Aviatech says marketplace.aviationweek.com/ the hangars can easily be shipped by air company/buildair-engineering- because of their compact packaging and architecture light weight, and then erected in two days 2. Mobile Clean Room on average. The inflatable hangar structures are built to withstand high winds and snow Company: JB Roche loads such as the portable maintenance Specifications: Designed in collaboration and research facility Aviatech built for the with Airbus, JB Roche’s CompShop is a Chilean Air Force’s Union Glacier Camp in mobile clean room built to ensure an optimal Antarctica. Aviatech says the hangars are environment for repairing composite parts. 3 suitable for all aircraft types for storage, The lightweight, weatherproof system can repair and maintenance needs. be erected in 15 min. and easily relocated marketplace.aviationweek.com/ to free up space in a hangar. CompShop is company/aviatech built to order, and JB Roche says aviation customers such as Airbus and Bombardier 5. Inflatable Spray Booth are using it for tasks such as composite repairs, spray painting, parts production and Company: AeroElite Interiors containment during grinding of composite Specifications: AeroElite Interiors has material. JB Roche has also been repurpos- started implementing a unique, OSHA- ing the design to aid medical efforts during 4 approved inflatable spray booth as part the COVID-19 pandemic. of its Mobile Interior business model. The marketplace.aviationweek.com/ inflatable structure, which was originally de- company/jb-roche signed for painting cars, has been converted into a booth for spraying aviation dyes, 3. Flexible Fabric Hangars glues, paints and adhesives at customer sites. According to AeroElite Interiors, the Company: Rubb inflatable spray booth prevents overspray Specifications: Rubb’s fabric tension hangars and the release of volatile chemicals into enable rapid deployment and construction the atmosphere. with the flexibility to be relocated if necessary. marketplace.aviationweek.com/ Rubb says that its semi-permanent hangars 5 company/aeroelite-interiors

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MRO24 INSIDEMRO MAY 2020 AviationWeek.com/MRO MR Mobile MRO Structures

Lindsay Bjerregaard Chicago 6. Mobile Aircraft Hangars 7. Portable Clean Rooms

1. Inflatable Hangars 1 feature Thermohall insulated cladding Company: Mahaffey Company: Duroair for easy climate control and low lifetime Specifications: Mahaffey provides tem- Specifications: Duroair specializes in modu- Company: Buildair maintenance costs, thanks to ease of repair porary mobile aircraft hangars that are lar, portable enclosures combined with in- Specifications: Buildair’s modular, inflatable and an exposed truss system for access to custom designed and engineered to fit dustrial air filtration to provide customizable, hangars can be delivered to customers via mechanical systems, cranes or equipment. aircraft of any size. The company says it can self-contained environments. The retractable air freight or standard sea containers and Turkish Airlines is using a Rubb hangar for construct hangars in as little as five days, clean rooms can be used for aviation tasks erected easily without construction-permit heavy maintenance during the construction which makes them ideal for covering aircraft such as machining, welding, metal finish- requirements. MRO customers are using of its new MRO campus at Istanbul Airport. needing repair—particularly in locations ing, coating and painting to capture oil mist Buildair’s hangars for line and base It will later dismantle the temporary hangar where aircraft hangar space is hard to come 6 particles, airborne particulates and hexava- maintenance operations such as service for potential use at another airport. by. The hangar structures can be fitted with lent chromium. Duroair says the portable bulletin retrofits, cabin interior refurbishment marketplace.aviationweek.com/ accessories such as sliding hangar doors, clean rooms can be placed anywhere in a and C checks. Buildair says the transparent company/rubb-building-systems climate control, lights and fire-suppression customer’s facility without the need to install structure of its hangars enables satellite Wi-Fi systems. Mahaffey says it sees heaviest supplementary ductwork and can be moved or GPS signals to be checked from inside. 4. Weather-Resistant Portable Hangars demand for temporary hangars during between locations or stored when not in use. The company is now working to develop Company: Aviatech construction of new facilities or repair The company says it has delivered the por- designs combining airtight technology with Specifications: Aviatech’s portable aircraft hangars at regional airports where there is tables to customers including BAE Systems, solar panels connected to inflation motors to hangars are built to be deployed quickly insufficient hangar space. Delta Air Lines, GE Aviation and Lufthansa. enable the assembly of hangars at remote and easily on any terrain at a lower cost marketplace.aviationweek.com/ marketplace.aviationweek.com/ sites with reduced access to electrical power. 2 7 than traditional structures. Aviatech says company/mahaffey-fabric-structures company/duroair marketplace.aviationweek.com/ the hangars can easily be shipped by air company/buildair-engineering- because of their compact packaging and architecture light weight, and then erected in two days 2. Mobile Clean Room on average. The inflatable hangar structures are built to withstand high winds and snow Company: JB Roche loads such as the portable maintenance Specifications: Designed in collaboration and research facility Aviatech built for the with Airbus, JB Roche’s CompShop is a Chilean Air Force’s Union Glacier Camp in September 1-3, 2020 • Dallas, TX mobile clean room built to ensure an optimal Antarctica. Aviatech says the hangars are environment for repairing composite parts. 3 suitable for all aircraft types for storage, #MROAM | The lightweight, weatherproof system can repair and maintenance needs. be erected in 15 min. and easily relocated marketplace.aviationweek.com/ to free up space in a hangar. CompShop is company/aviatech built to order, and JB Roche says aviation MRO Americas to Address customers such as Airbus and Bombardier 5. Inflatable Spray Booth are using it for tasks such as composite repairs, spray painting, parts production and Company: AeroElite Interiors Moving Forward containment during grinding of composite Specifications: AeroElite Interiors has material. JB Roche has also been repurpos- started implementing a unique, OSHA- • Industry in Crisis: How to build resiliency in approved inflatable spray booth as part Keynote Speakers ing the design to aid medical efforts during 4 your business in the midst of a global pandemic. the COVID-19 pandemic. of its Mobile Interior business model. The inflatable structure, which was originally de- • Navigating the World of Mergers & marketplace.aviationweek.com/ Acquisitions and Industry Consolidation company/jb-roche signed for painting cars, has been converted into a booth for spraying aviation dyes, • All Hands on Deck: What can the industry 3. Flexible Fabric Hangars glues, paints and adhesives at customer realistically expect in the coming days and what sites. According to AeroElite Interiors, the role will MROs, OEMs, fuel companies, and fi nancial institutions play in helping to keep Company: Rubb inflatable spray booth prevents overspray US airlines in business? Specifications: Rubb’s fabric tension hangars and the release of volatile chemicals into enable rapid deployment and construction the atmosphere. Learn more and register at: John Holmes Doug Parker with the flexibility to be relocated if necessary. 5 marketplace.aviationweek.com/ President & CEO CEO Rubb says that its semi-permanent hangars company/aeroelite-interiors mroamericas.aviationweek.com AAR American Airlines

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MRO24 INSIDEMRO MAY 2020 AviationWeek.com/MRO AviationWeek.com/MRO INSIDEMRO MAY 2020 MRO25 MR Viewpoint By CRAIG GOTTLIEB Craig Gottlieb is the managing director in Accenture’s aerospace and defense practice, focused on innovation in aftermarket services.

improve customer engagement and Conversational AI experience, an important consideration for OEMs and MROs looking to Delivering the right answer quickly and simply manage the present and prepare for what comes next. Yet customer service may just be ecently I read about a local company that is projecting the start. The ability to obtain tech future growth but must turn over its entire workforce data, order parts or direct services R hands-free can improve quality, ef- within a decade because of retirements. That situation raises ficiency and safety on the line and in the question of what knowledge must be captured, shared and the shop. Using voice inputs rather consumed for this company to retain its market position? What than keystrokes can increase the if we could address this challenge and the solution could be likelihood of technology adoption for workers who may lack the experi- applied to another business, the aviation aftermarket? Enter ence or comfort to engage with a conversational artificial intelligence (AI), digital assistants that traditional user interface. Pairing trigger answers and action based on “listening” to everyday conversational AI with traditional or language. In fact, after the COVID-19 crisis is brought under wearable displays can provide more intuitive access at the working level control, conversational AI may have an even greater role in the to other digital investments such as emerging “new normal.” analytics and digital twins. But what do organizations need to get right? Aerospace and defense companies maintainer’s question spoken in the As with other digital investments, are focused on artificial intelligence. shadow of a nacelle. It rapidly com- there is a big difference between just Accenture’s research indicates that prehends that input using knowledge getting started with conversational over one-third of industry execu- bases and machine learning. This AI and getting off to a good start. tives see AI as the technology that understanding enables mainte- First and foremost, the data need to will have the greatest impact on our nance staff to react in real time, be be correct. AI engines simply run industry. What, then, it through escalating out of fuel without a reliable data does the term “conver- questions to a person or foundation and architecture. Next, sational” add to AI? triggering the deliv- as my more expert colleagues say, it As in politics, access is Are you ery of a part, drawing needs to “speak human but not pre- everything. Data-rich or piece of software tend to be one.” Understanding how fleets require faster, through process auto- AI agents relate to users, designing more targeted deci- being mation. Lastly, it can conversations in the context of users’ sions and action from learn the nuances of the jobs, clearly defining the knowledge the line to the service questions it receives to the technology will manage, and desk. Coupling this served? continuously improve designing smooth handovers be- with today’s pressing its language under- tween AI and human agents are the need for remote work and, hope- standing and ultimately the quality of foundation of starting conversational fully, returning demand for skills the services that it delivers. AI well. tomorrow suggests there is greater Customer service is a natural Maintaining fleet availability pressure to deliver information to starting point for conversational AI. requires fast, precise access to data, help do jobs the right way the first Accenture’s research shows that knowledge, parts and services across time. A phone call or knowing which other industries have used conver- the aftermarket. Today’s environ- book or manual to consult are no sational AI to handle 40% of service ment demands remote, safe and longer good enough. Conversational desk interactions without a human confident access to information. As AI helps users find the right answer agent and with a 60-80% reduction flying resumes, aftermarket provid- faster, delivering precise information in cost-per-service-center contact. ers and operators will need better at scale through the simplest user The technology has also helped man- ways to do their jobs. By uniting the interface: speech. age call center seasonality by limit- simplicity of everyday conversation Conversational AI changes human- ing the need to flex staff, an increas- with the power of artificial intelli- machine interaction in four ways. ingly valuable feature in the current gence, conversational AI provides a First, it senses and consumes inputs environment. Also enticing are the new way for aftermarket providers across multiple language inputs, from early returns on conversational AI to send information to customers, an airline maintenance engineer’s in improving customer experience practical instructions to employees, typed instant message, to a line and retention. Conversational AI can and soon, aircraft out of hangars. c

MRO26 INSIDEMRO MAY 2020 AviationWeek.com/MRO MR Viewpoint By CRAIG GOTTLIEB MR ADVERTISING SECTION Craig Gottlieb is the managing director in Accenture’s aerospace and defense MRO Links is an online service that connects buyers and sellers in the MRO industry. Become an MRO Links power practice, focused on innovation in after- user by registering at mrolinks.com/register. Registration is FREE, enabling you to find hundreds of products like the market services. ones featured below and to connect with more than 8000 companies. You can create a personalized save list, learn about companies’ specialties, get contact details and request information at mrolinks.com. improve customer engagement and To advertise in MRO Links, contact Elizabeth Zlitni at 913-967-1348 or [email protected]. Conversational AI experience, an important consideration for OEMs and MROs looking to The 25th Annual MRO Americas Conference and Exhibition will take place September 1-3, Delivering the right answer quickly and simply manage the present and prepare for 2020 in Dallas, Texas. The conference and exhibition provide the ultimate opportunity for aviation what comes next. professionals to gather knowledge, debate the issues, forge new partnerships and cement existing Yet customer service may just be relationships. The worldwide fallout from the novel coronavirus pandemic makes this more important than ecently I read about a local company that is projecting the start. The ability to obtain tech ever before. The 3-day conference agenda will address what the industry can realistically expect in the future growth but must turn over its entire workforce data, order parts or direct services coming days and what role MROs, OEMs, fuel companies, and financial institutions will play in helping R hands-free can improve quality, ef- to keep airlines in business. MRO Americas is the largest and most important event for the commercial within a decade because of retirements. That situation raises ficiency and safety on the line and in air transport maintenance, repair and overhaul industry. The conference and exhibition is co-located with the question of what knowledge must be captured, shared and the shop. Using voice inputs rather the Military Aviation Logistics & Maintenance Symposium (MALMS) that drives the U.S. military consumed for this company to retain its market position? What than keystrokes can increase the to partner with the private sector. The exhibition hall will host the Go Live Theatre and the Aerospace Maintenance Competition- two live action special features that are open to all attendees. For more if we could address this challenge and the solution could be likelihood of technology adoption for workers who may lack the experi- information please visit: mroamericas.aviationweek.com. applied to another business, the aviation aftermarket? Enter ence or comfort to engage with a Visit aviationweek.com/events for more information, including complete exhibitor listings and MRO Links participants! conversational artificial intelligence (AI), digital assistants that traditional user interface. Pairing trigger answers and action based on “listening” to everyday conversational AI with traditional or AEROPARTS NOW AVENGER AEROSPACE SOLUTIONS INC. language. In fact, after the COVID-19 crisis is brought under wearable displays can provide more intuitive access at the working level AeroParts Now Engineering Design and Analysis control, conversational AI may have an even greater role in the to other digital investments such as emerging “new normal.” analytics and digital twins. But what AeroParts Now is We are aerospace consultants do organizations need to get right? transforming the way aircraft offering a wide variety of Aerospace and defense companies maintainer’s question spoken in the As with other digital investments, parts sellers do business. engineering and FAA certification are focused on artificial intelligence. shadow of a nacelle. It rapidly com- there is a big difference between just APN helps you quickly capabilities. Our services range Accenture’s research indicates that prehends that input using knowledge getting started with conversational manage inventory listings, from structural design, static, over one-third of industry execu- bases and machine learning. This AI and getting off to a good start. consolidate and prioritize fatigue and damage tolerance tives see AI as the technology that understanding enables mainte- First and foremost, the data need to RFQs, automate and sync analysis to parts manufacturing for will have the greatest impact on our nance staff to react in real time, be be correct. AI engines simply run with marketplaces, and repairs and PMA projects. industry. What, then, it through escalating out of fuel without a reliable data sell directly to buyers with does the term “conver- questions to a person or foundation and architecture. Next, custom-branded eCommerce sational” add to AI? triggering the deliv- as my more expert colleagues say, it stores. 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MRO26 INSIDEMRO MAY 2020 AviationWeek.com/MRO AviationWeek.com/mro INSIDEMRO MAY 2020 MRO27 MR AERISI SECI

BII AER SERICES B IME BEI CMPA HE ii, Aero Services by Timken Around the Clock Around the orld AAS READ

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MRO2 INSIDEMRO MAY 2020 AviationWeek.com/mro MR AERISI SECI MR ADVERTISING SECTION

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MRO2 INSIDEMRO MAY 2020 AviationWeek.com/mro AviationWeek.com/mro INSIDEMRO MAY 2020 MRO29 MR ADVERTISING SECTION

FACC AFTERMARKET SERVICES – REPAIR REFURBISH REPLACE HALTEC CORPORATION FACC Aftermarket Services Safe, Accurate, and Efﬁ cient Tire Inﬂ ation Solutions FACC Aftermarket Services, the industry leader in altec Corporation provides winglet and sharklet repairs, mobile tire infl ation solutions to is expanding capabilities commercial, private, and military to include fl ight control aviation operations. components on 3G and A30 family aircraft. Contact Safe, accurate, and us today for more information. effi cient tire infl ation is the key to keeping maintenance costs low.

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IAG ENGINE CENTER USA | EUROPE L.J. WALCH CO., INC. MTI INSTRUMENTS INC. OTTOBOCK Integrated Solutions, One Provider Don’t Scrap! L.J. Walch Can Help! MT nstruments is a S-based manufacturer Paexo Empoer your orkforce of highly-advanced balancing and vibration IAG Engine Center USA/ L.. Walch can breathe analysis systems. Specifi cally designed for ur aexo products Europe is a world-class new life into items you aircraft engineturbine optimization, our on- are personal engine service provider. IAG are currently sending wing and rack-mounted test cell balancing assistive systems for Engine Centers have industry- to scrap. Whether it solutions are backed by years of sophisticated sensing and ergonomic work in leading MRO capabilities and is a worn wobbler or physical measurement expertise. Every day, leading names from industry, logistics and extensive experience to provide damaged housing, L.. commercial aviation, as well as the S Air orce and foreign building trades. ur aexo Shoulder, the lightest exoskeleton customized solutions across Walch has the technology to provide quality repairs for expensive militaries, use our systems to solve engine vibration problems. of its kind, relieves strain on the shoulder oints and upper arms an array of engine types. The consumable products, saving you time and money. Call or visit At MT, we’re obsessed with precision and with providing during overhead work on assembly lines and maintenance. company services CFM5, CF, ljwalch.com today for details. innovative vibrationbalancing technology to EMs, operators, and W000 model engines. and maintenance, repair and overhaul M organizations worldwide. MT nstruments is also proud to be an S www.iagaerogroup.com certifi ed company. www.mtiinstruments.com Airport Equipment & Services www.paexo.com https://marketplace.avia- www.ljwalch.com https://marketplace. https://marketplace.avia- Maintenance, Repair Maintenance, Repair & Tools • Test Equipment • angars & aviationweek.com/prod- • Ground Support Equipment • & Overhaul • Engines/ tionweek.com/product/ Overhaul • Components https://marketplace.aviationweek.com/ Equipment • Airport Equipment & Services • uct/pbs-r-vibration- angars & Equipment • Safety/ tionweek.com/product/ Engine Systems integrated-solutions-one-provider • Lighting product/dont-scrap-lj-walch-can-help Engines/Engine Systems balancing-system Emergency Equipment • Tools paexo-empower-your-workforce

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PANASONIC TECHNICAL SERVICES PD ORKHOLDING Panasonic Technical Services Specialiing in CNC Workholding and Cutting Tools

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PERFORMANCE PLASTICS RISE INC. Nonmarring Aircraft Maintenance Tools Streamlining Aircraft Inspections

erformance lastics’ The izse autonomous EnduroSharp drone platform makes it product line consists of possible to inspect an aircraft nonmetallic tools used fuselage more effi ciently to remove adhesives, and accurately than ever sealants, and coatings before. ur end-to-end from aircraft structures. inspection solution uses a D roviding aerospace maintenance professionals an adhesive lidar system and high-precision camera, paired with an intuitive removal tool that holds an effective edge, without damaging interface, to deliver precise inspections every time. composite substructures.

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SHEROOD AVIATION SIMS LIFECYCLE SERVICES Solutions Provider Secure electronics recycling and value recovery

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China Pushes Cargo Expansion and future global capacity shortage. That would be exactly what the govern- Mergers With Logistics ment would expect. However, for the past 10 years the > FREIGHTERS ARE A PRIORITY CAAC has probably seen more rou- tine advantages in a larger air freight > GOVERNMENT PROMOTES FEDEX MODEL IN USE BY SF AIRLINES industry. “It could help to balance the revenue and earnings structure of the Bradley Perrett Beijing Chinese air transport industry,” says Marc Szepan, an aviation expert at n English, people sometimes say giant in almost every industry, has the the University of Oxford. Carriers one should never let a good crisis world’s second-largest economy and is will not be so dependent on passenger Igo to waste—meaning that during the biggest merchandise exporter, it traffic, he says. emergencies things can be achieved is an air freight weakling. SF Airlines The government is likely calling for that could not be done under normal has the largest Chinese cargo fleet, mergers of air cargo with general lo- circumstances. with 58 aircraft. FedEx has 378. gistics because it sees the integrated The idea is not often expressed in Last decade, officials overcame model, as used by FedEx, DHL and China, but the sentiment must have managers’ objections and were able others as the best, Szepan says. been on the minds of aviation ad- to force mergers in many industries, China already has a prominent com- ministrators amid the depths of the creating enterprises that would have pany with such a business structure, country’s COVID-19 crisis in February a scale advantage in global markets. SF Express, the air wing of which is

and March. For on March 24, the TIANJIN AIRLINES Civil Aviation Administration of China (CAAC) achieved an objective it had been trying to impose on airlines for at least a decade. The State Council, China’s national cabinet, on that day promulgated a policy demanding consolidation in the air cargo industry. Specifically, Beijing has called for the merging of air cargo operations with the general logistics sector. The government also set an objective of increasing the size of China’s air cargo fleets. It particularly wants more freighters, though additional exploitation of belly capacity is not excluded. China’s cabinet said there would be a range of further mea- Examples include shipping, steel and A Tianjin Airlines Airbus A330 pas- sures to improve efficiency and help railway equipment. The airlines suc- senger aircraft loaded with cargo to air cargo such as standardization, 24- cessfully resisted, however. help move exports. hr. customs service and improved slot Amid a crisis in China, resistance availability—even during airports’ to authority is simply out of line. And SF Airlines. The CAAC has previously daily peaks. Details such as the in- the airlines, in their weakened state, pushed SF Express to take large eq- tended size of the air cargo industry knew in February and March that they uity stakes in the freight operations fleet and the timing of the measures would be asking for government help: of state airlines, industry sources say. were not set out, as is common for A cooperative attitude was in order. The private company refused to do so Chinese policy coming from the top. That would have helped the CAAC because it did not want to be encum- Lower-level officials can be expected finally get its way, but perhaps the bered by government enterprises. to fill in the gaps. clincher was that the carriers had let Now it may be under greater pres- This policy emerged as Chinese air- China down. As China suppressed the sure to integrate government compa- lines strained to transport the coun- coronavirus and its factories restarted, nies into its operations. Each of the try’s exports against the backdrop exporters could not secure enough air country’s three main airlines (China of a global shortage of belly capacity. freight service. Southern Airlines, Air China and Airlines are working their freighters While other countries might shrug China Eastern Airlines) has a freight hard and pressing passenger aircraft and accept the ways of a global mar- subsidiary. into cargo service, with packages tied ket, the nationalist Chinese instinct Szepan points out that there are to seats or packed into luggage bins. is to be self-reliant. This implies that other national advantages of China The policy of consolidation and if China does become a heavy player having a larger air freight industry: expansion is aimed at rectifying an in air cargo its freight carriers can disaster relief and supplementing the anomaly. While China wants to be a be expected to put China first in any air force’s modest cargo capacity. c

AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MAY 4-17, 2020 31 SUSTAINABILITY > COVID-19 and emissions p. 37 High-speed rail threat p. 38 Green rotorcraft demo p. 40 AIRCRAFT RECYCLING > THE BUSINESS CASE MAY EMERGE FOR BETTER ALUMINUM SORTING CARBON-FIBER RECYCLING IS THE NEXT FRONTIER GETS > SMART

32 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MAY 4-17, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST SUSTAINABILITY > COVID-19 and emissions p. 37 High-speed rail threat p. 38 Green rotorcraft demo p. 40

Converging trends are shaping the business of recycling aircraft, signaling the aerospace AIRCRAFT RECYCLING sector’s rising willingness to implement higher environmen- ONE IN A SERIES > THE BUSINESS CASE MAY EMERGE FOR BETTER ALUMINUM SORTING tal standards while striving to maintain aerospace grade in the sophisticated > CARBON-FIBER RECYCLING IS THE NEXT FRONTIER GETS SMART materials that are recovered. The overarching Thierry Dubois Lyon idea is to use resources more efficiently. The first tendency is toward smarter metal processing. Dismantled aircraft primarily consist of aluminum. Given the effort required to produce a specific variety of aluminum alloy, it would make sense to reuse it as such. Although the process of sorting metals has improved, no economical solution yet exists for keeping different aluminum alloys separated throughout the recycling process. In composite materials, the tantalizing goal of reusing carbon fiber-reinforced plastics (CFRP) in new airframes may soon be achieved. The growing proportion of CFRP in today’s aircraft has made reuse key for the promoters of the material. It has been praised for its light weight and resulting fuel savings. OEMs would not like CFRP to be exposed to public contempt because of a poor environmental footprint over the product life cycle. Meanwhile, aircraft owners are integrating greener principles into their internal guidelines, thus reinforcing the impact of stricter laws. Demand is therefore growing for more responsible—albeit more expensive—aircraft disposal. In recent years, about 700 aircraft have been decommis- sioned annually for dismantling and recycling, according to the Aircraft Fleet Recycling Association (AFRA). In 2018, the average retirement age was 25.9 years for passenger aircraft and 32.5 years for freighter aircraft, the Interna- tional Air Transport Association (IATA) notes. “Aircraft dismantling and subsequent recycling should be seen as part of the life cycle,” says Sebastien Medan, facility, environment, health and safety director at Tarmac Aerosave’s facility in Tarbes, France. An Airbus offshoot, Aerosave specializes in aircraft maintenance, storage, dismantling and recycling. Other shareholders are Safran and waste treatment specialist Suez. “To preserve the aircraft’s value, the owner should take care of maintaining airworthiness and compliance with environmental standards,” Medan adds. In terms of value, the purpose of dismantling an aircraft is to sell its components and parts. The engines are by far the priciest element, even after two decades in service. “The engines are clearly the most valuable parts, with 70-80% of the end-of-life aircraft total marketing price [as indicated by leasing companies],” an IATA spokesperson says. Tarmac’s salespeople suggest engines represent as much as 85%. The next most valuable parts—in order of importance, according to consultancy SGI Aviation—are the landing

Tarmac Aerosave uses a diamond-wire cutting gantry cooled with water for improved safety and dust recovery.

REMY MICHELIN LOGO: ARTHOBBIT/UNDEFINED UNDEFINED/WASTESOUL/MARYLOO-GETTY IMAGES 32 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MAY 4-17, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MAY 4-17, 2020 33 SUSTAINABILITY

dismantling and recycling activity in Tarbes and in Teruel, Spain. Since its inception, the company has recycled 220 civil aircraft and 135 engines. H. GOUSSE/AIRBUS “A new generation of aircraft is arriving on the market,” Medan says. “We see many Airbus A330s and an increasing number of Boeing 777s, in addition to the first A380s.” Assuming a typical aircraft lifetime of approximately 25 years, most of the aircraft retiring by 2040 will still be the types that are currently in service today, which are primarily aluminum construction, IATA points out. Hence the focus on aluminum after the removal of reusable parts. “The largest portion of the materials that can be recycled consists of aluminum (about 60%),” IATA states in its BIPAD. “A variety of aluminum alloys is used in aircraft. Identifying the different types of aluminum alloys prior to the dismantling operations, by mapping from the OEM’s documentation, allows them to be recycled separately and Two Airbus employees have created the A Piece of Sky online obtain higher-quality end products.” shop, which sells furniture upcycled from aircraft parts. Although the goal is commendable, the reality is still gear, the auxiliary power unit, electrical power units such challenging. as generators, flight controls and navigation systems. They Separation is labor intensive. “It requires a lot of manual are commonly referred to as high-value components, and work such as removing the rivets from the aircraft struc- together they comprise as much as 70% of the value of the ture,” the IATA spokesperson says. And the volume of se- airframe, excluding the engines. Other components with ries-2000 aluminum, for instance, is too small for it to be noticeable value include escape slides and flap tracks. kept segregated, Tarmac’s Medan says. “It would not be “From an airline point of view, the most important as- economical to recycle nuances of aluminum separately.” pect is to optimize the revenue from parts and components Media plants, where metals are sorted, have evolved that can be sold and reused as spare parts,” IATA states from simply distinguishing ferrous metals in mixed ma-

in its manual for Best Industry Practices for Aircraft De- H. GOUSSE/AIRBUS commissioning (BIPAD). The BIPAD manual primarily addresses aircraft owners and operators. It is comple - mentary to AFRA’s Best Management Practices for application by specialized aircraft dismantling and recycling companies, IATA says. Cargo carrier Kalitta Air sees the residual value of the aircraft as “often realized by removal of high-value parts . . . prior to recycling the aircraft for its basic metals.” Some parts have to be scrapped, in which case thor - ough documentation is required to ensure that the components have been destroyed and professionally disposed of, says Germany-based MoreAero, a specialist in aircraft dismantling and recycling. The customer should receive a “proof of waste disposal,” according to IATA. “This is an important step to prevent suspected unapproved parts or counterfeit parts (‘bogus parts’) entering the spare parts market,” IATA states. As for spare parts, a particular case has recently emerged—the Airbus A380. Late last year, when the first Upcycling aircraft parts may result in a smaller aircraft entered dismantling in Tarbes, it appeared the market was avidly looking at secondhand spare parts. environmental footprint than recycling. Demand was so strong that the number of components terials coming from cars and appliances. “It is a chicken- Tarmac removed stood close to 6,000 per A380, up from and-egg situation—who in the aircraft-recycling industry 700-1,000 for an A330. will partner with someone who has a media plant?” says In an unusual step, Tarmac’s technicians even removed Alasdair Gledhill, director of nonferrous metals at recycling engine pylons for reuse. Money savings from secondhand specialist ELG Haniel Metals and commercial director at parts can be considerable: A new A380 main landing gear sister company ELG Carbon Fiber. is priced at around $25 million, according to Germany- Recent progress in aircraft fuel efficiency, such as with based consultancy Scope Analysis. Airbus’ A350, has been helped by new, expensive aluminum Dismantling the A380 prompted the development of new nuances. So putting in place a closed loop in aircraft metal tooling, due to its size. recycling would be justifiable. Tarmac claims a 30% market share in Europe for Airbus But quantity is decidedly an issue. Compared with other and Boeing aircraft dismantling (measured in units) and industries, aircraft recycling generates a small volume of 10% globally. It has a combined 40 employees working in the material. “We recover approximately 1,000 tons of alumi-

34 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MAY 4-17, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST SUSTAINABILITY

the recycled aircraft’s weight at 89-91%, according dismantling and recycling activity in Tarbes and in Teruel, Value Share Among to Tarmac’s numbers. “The proportion will not Spain. Since its inception, the company has recycled 220 Assemblies and Subassemblies progress until plastic and composite materials civil aircraft and 135 engines. can be recycled in greater volumes,” Medan says. H. GOUSSE/AIRBUS “A new generation of aircraft is arriving on the market,” Landing Other Until now, carbon fiber has been recycled Medan says. “We see many Airbus A330s and an increasing gear equipment into lower-value products, compared with initial number of Boeing 777s, in addition to the first A380s.” high-performance designs. Thus current efforts try Assuming a typical aircraft lifetime of approximately Engines 5% 2.3% to recycle more fiber while retaining its features. 25 years, most of the aircraft retiring by 2040 will still be 85% Avionics Dismantling the A380 has prompted renewed in- the types that are currently in service today, which are 2.5% terest because it contains 25% of composites by primarily aluminum construction, IATA points out. Hence weight. the focus on aluminum after the removal of reusable parts. “We are in touch with European companies that “The largest portion of the materials that can be recy- have devised carbon fiber recycling processes and cled consists of aluminum (about 60%),” IATA states in its Materials have managed to keep the fiber’s length,” Medan BIPAD. “A variety of aluminum alloys is used in aircraft. 0.2% says. Length is key for airframe applications, Identifying the different types of aluminum alloys prior to Flight controls which require fibers several dozen centimeters in the dismantling operations, by mapping from the OEM’s length. For high mechanical performance, compos- APU 2.5% documentation, allows them to be recycled separately and ite materials need fibers to be oriented consistent- Two Airbus employees have created the A Piece of Sky online obtain higher-quality end products.” 2.5% ly. Orienting short fibers is impractical. shop, which sells furniture upcycled from aircraft parts. Although the goal is commendable, the reality is still The recycling processes developed thus far have gear, the auxiliary power unit, electrical power units such challenging. involved shortening reclaimed fiber. as generators, flight controls and navigation systems. They Separation is labor intensive. “It requires a lot of manual Data Source: IATA Medan has seen unspecified companies produc- are commonly referred to as high-value components, and work such as removing the rivets from the aircraft struc- DESIGN: MARJANE DUBOIS AND JIM MILLER/AW&ST ing dozens of metric tons of recycled, long carbon together they comprise as much as 70% of the value of the ture,” the IATA spokesperson says. And the volume of se- fiber annually. He deems the technologies mature. airframe, excluding the engines. Other components with ries-2000 aluminum, for instance, is too small for it to be num per year, and we do not know how to trace the portion “These companies have yet to find customers,” Medan noticeable value include escape slides and flap tracks. kept segregated, Tarmac’s Medan says. “It would not be that will be reused in aerospace,” Medan says. says. “But I am confident this nascent activity will thrive “From an airline point of view, the most important as- economical to recycle nuances of aluminum separately.” And some technical challenges would have to be over- sooner rather than later, notably thanks to other manufac- pect is to optimize the revenue from parts and components Media plants, where metals are sorted, have evolved come. Aluminum alloys from aircraft are of very strict turing industries such as yachting and sports equipment.” that can be sold and reused as spare parts,” IATA states from simply distinguishing ferrous metals in mixed ma- chemical composition. The more aluminum is recycled, the Another company, Xcrusher, has been developing a tech- H. GOUSSE/AIRBUS in its manual for Best Industry Practices for Aircraft De- greater the amount of impurities, making it unsuitable for REMY MICHALIN commissioning (BIPAD). The BIPAD manual primarily aircraft manufacturing, IATA says. “There is an inherent addresses aircraft owners and operators. It is comple - problem with aircraft aluminum because it is ‘contaminat- mentary to AFRA’s Best Management Practices for applied’ with corrosion-prevention compounds that must be cation by specialized aircraft dismantling and recycling dealt with during the smelting process,” Kalitta Air adds. companies, IATA says. Thus far, at least, series-2000 aluminum can be mixed Cargo carrier Kalitta Air sees the residual value of the with series-7000 aluminum and reused in aerospace, aircraft as “often realized by removal of high-value parts . . . Medan says. Aluminum from aircraft can be recycled prior to recycling the aircraft for its basic metals.” into other products, too. Some parts have to be scrapped, in which case thor - As for titanium, specifications for the final product are ough documentation is required to ensure that the com- so strict that titanium recovered from a dismantled air - ponents have been destroyed and professionally disposed craft would have to be incorporated at the beginning of of, says Germany-based MoreAero, a specialist in aircraft the industrial process. It could then undergo every phase, dismantling and recycling. The customer should receive including checks. Recovered titanium therefore usually a “proof of waste disposal,” according to IATA. “This is an becomes part of steel alloys. important step to prevent suspected unapproved parts or Some companies manage to upcycle metallic compo - counterfeit parts (‘bogus parts’) entering the spare parts nents, transforming aircraft end-of-life parts into inno - market,” IATA states. vative and added-value products, as Bombardier puts it. As for spare parts, a particular case has recently In a pilot project, Bombardier, along with University of emerged—the Airbus A380. Late last year, when the first Montreal and the Consortium for Research and Innovation Upcycling aircraft parts may result in a smaller An aircraft can be recycled at 89-91% in weight, but the aircraft entered dismantling in Tarbes, it appeared the in Aerospace in Quebec, created various daily-life objects proportion will not increase until plastic and composite market was avidly looking at secondhand spare parts. environmental footprint than recycling. from aircraft parts. Demand was so strong that the number of components terials coming from cars and appliances. “It is a chicken- The upcycled objects included a bicycle, an ambiance materials can be recycled in greater volumes. Tarmac removed stood close to 6,000 per A380, up from and-egg situation—who in the aircraft-recycling industry stand light, a leather fashion jacket, a folding table, a desk nology to recover uncured composites from a factory. With 700-1,000 for an A330. will partner with someone who has a media plant?” says light and a wall clock. “After performing a comparative life offcuts of preimpregnated fabric, it makes the most of an In an unusual step, Tarmac’s technicians even removed Alasdair Gledhill, director of nonferrous metals at recycling cycle assessment of some of these prototypes, we observed electrical property of carbon fiber. Creating an electrical engine pylons for reuse. Money savings from secondhand specialist ELG Haniel Metals and commercial director at that upcycling the parts results in a smaller environmental impulse on the order of a gigawatt through the fiber sub- parts can be considerable: A new A380 main landing gear sister company ELG Carbon Fiber. footprint than recycling,” Bombardier says. limes resin. It leaves the fiber as good as new, with intact is priced at around $25 million, according to Germany- Recent progress in aircraft fuel efficiency, such as with Airbus’ BizLab business accelerator has supported two mechanical and chemical characteristics, CEO Aziz Bentaj based consultancy Scope Analysis. Airbus’ A350, has been helped by new, expensive aluminum employees in a similar idea. They have created the online says. The duration of the electric pulse, about a nanosec- Dismantling the A380 prompted the development of new nuances. So putting in place a closed loop in aircraft metal store A Piece of Sky, which sells furniture upcycled from ond, makes it energy efficient. tooling, due to its size. recycling would be justifiable. aircraft parts. “Our process yields fiber with constant section and con- Tarmac claims a 30% market share in Europe for Airbus But quantity is decidedly an issue. Compared with other Overall, the share of recovered metal is a minuscule stant specific weight,” Bentaj says. “We can produce kilome- and Boeing aircraft dismantling (measured in units) and industries, aircraft recycling generates a small volume of portion of the total value that a recycled aircraft gener - ters of continuous fiber at 1 m/sec., and we aim at a manufac- 10% globally. It has a combined 40 employees working in the material. “We recover approximately 1,000 tons of alumi- ates. Nevertheless, it helps to maintain the proportion of turing rate of 100 metric tons per year within six months.”

34 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MAY 4-17, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MAY 4-17, 2020 35 SUSTAINABILITY

Price Evolution for Boeing 737-800 and CFM56-7B Engine It is noteworthy that engines have a relatively stable value over time, whereas the value of the entire aircraft continuously decreases with age. 40

35 Boeing 737-800 CFM56-7B 30

15 Value (U.S.$ millions) Value 10

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 Aircraft Age (years) Source: IATA

The pilot factory that produces carbon fiber reels is located an advancement because it is better for an industry to reuse in Saint-Ouen, near Paris and is a partnership with Suez. its own materials rather than export them to another one, ELG Carbon Fibre is finding techniques to use recycled in terms of environmental footprint control. carbon fiber in structural applications. Last December, it Last, but not least, a determining factor for the recy - unveiled the world’s first train bogie made of such mate - cling business in the near term is compliance with environ- rial—a collaboration with the University of Huddersfield’s mental protection laws and best practices. For an owner, Institute for Railway Research in the UK. The new assem- compliance—and possibly going the extra mile—boosts its bly, now in testing, is lighter than conventional bogies and public image. Conversely, a negative media report that re- optimizes vertical and transverse stiffness, ELG states. veals poor management of an aircraft’s end of life can have The company has pioneered the pyrolysis technology to devastating effects. recover carbon fiber from offcuts and has a contract with “Some examples that illustrate the need for better prac- Boeing, which supplies CFRP from 787 and 777X manu - tices include aircraft stored in deserts without maintenance facturing. After pyrolysis removes the resin, the fiber is and/or proper decontamination processes and aircraft chopped and milled, then used as a reinforcement in ther- abandoned at airports or simply dismantled for aluminum moplastic composites. recovery regardless of other materials that could be re - The automotive industry uses them in nonwoven textiles covered, such as electronics or plastics,” IATA states in for compression molding. The final products are car hoods its BIPAD. and roofs, among other applications. Several car models The disassembly and dismantling phases generate haz- use such recycled fiber, according to ELG’s Gledhill. Re - ardous waste that must be safely controlled. Likewise, com- cycled carbon fiber is thus making its way to higher-value panies must curb emissions into the air, such as paint dust applications. containing heavy metals during the sawing dismantling Thermoplastics with recycled carbon fiber replace steel phase. Emissions into soil should not contain fuel spills or and magnesium with a better performance-cost ratio, Gled- wastewater. hill explains. “As vehicles go electric, they may be used for Tarmac has been using a diamond-wire cutting gantry battery containers, where strength and lightness are key.” cooled with water. The system is deemed cleaner than the What prevents the recovered carbon fiber from being commonly used hydraulic pliers. Tarmac employs a cable reused in airframes is the lengthy certification process, says to recover all the dust and cooling water. This process is Gledhill. He predicts it will first be used in less critical ap- also safer because it eliminates the risk of fire. plications, typically in cabin interiors. Tarmac has also created a mobile cutting facility in which “It retains most of its performance,” he says. If recovered it can process narrowbody fuselages in a closed environ- carbon fiber is to be incorporated in an airframe, ELG will ment, thus avoiding the dispersion of hazardous material have to prove it meets the mechanical requirements despite such as asbestos. The mobile unit can be shipped to a site the shorter fiber length. from which aircraft can no longer fly because they have In the future, the raw material going into ELG’s pyrolysis been sitting for too long in poor conditions. The first con- process may come from dismantled aircraft. This would be tract was for 63 military aircraft in France. c

36 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MAY 4-17, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST SUSTAINABILITY

COVID-19 Crisis Will Affect Emissions in the Long Term Price Evolution for Boeing 737-800 and CFM56-7B Engine It is noteworthy that engines have a relatively stable value over time, whereas > AIRLINES WANT CHANGES TO THE CORSIA SCHEME the value of the entire aircraft continuously decreases with age. 40 > RETIREMENT OF OLDER AIRCRAFT WILL IMPROVE EFFICIENCY

35 Boeing 737-800 Helen Massy-Beresford Paris CFM56-7B 30 he COVID-19 crisis has—tem- in their pockets for leisure travel and ICAO to take account of the unprec- porarily and painfully for the businesses failing,” Strickland says. edented dip in emissions in the past aviation industry—solved the “All this in a time frame running into months and use only 2019 emissions 25 T problem of airline emissions. years, not months.” data as the baseline for the first phase But once aircraft begin to fly again But looking ahead to when aircraft of Corsia—but environmental cam- 20 and some normalcy is restored, the will gradually return to the skies, paigners warn that any adjustments coronavirus outbreak may prove to the emissions debate centers on the could damage the scheme in the long 15 have a longer-lasting impact on in- International Civil Aviation Organiza- term. ICAO is expected to discuss the dustry efforts to boost sustainability. tion’s (ICAO) Carbon Offsetting and issue at its governing council session

Value (U.S.$ millions) Value As fleets have been grounded across Reduction Scheme for International in June. 10 the globe, environmental campaigners Aviation (Corsia). Before the COVID-19 pandemic be- have taken the opportunity of almost Airlines are asserting that the un- gan, European airlines had been com- 5 empty skies and a short-term dive in precedented hiatus in global air trav- ing under increasing scrutiny over CO2 emissions to draw attention to el should be taken into account in the their emissions, with new measures 0 the urgent need to reduce aviation’s Corsia scheme, which requires partic- being implemented by governments environmental impact. ipating carriers to offset any emissions including a controversial eco-tax in 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 The artificial plunge in emissions growth above a baseline of an average France. Ministers from many of the Aircraft Age (years) Source: IATA could last for some time, says John of 2019 and 2020 emissions. bloc’s member states had also been Strickland, director of JLS Consulting. As fleets remain grounded, those av- calling for a Europe-wide aviation tax. The pilot factory that produces carbon fiber reels is located an advancement because it is better for an industry to reuse “We’re going to see a reduction erage emissions will be getting lower, The COVID-19 crisis has turned the in Saint-Ouen, near Paris and is a partnership with Suez. its own materials rather than export them to another one, in aviation activity through airlines making the targets harder to meet, the industry upside down, with many air- ELG Carbon Fibre is finding techniques to use recycled in terms of environmental footprint control. failing [and] demand itself being airline industry contends. carbon fiber in structural applications. Last December, it Last, but not least, a determining factor for the recy - down—[due to] border closures but Airlines therefore want changes to Lufthansa is permanently unveiled the world’s first train bogie made of such mate - cling business in the near term is compliance with environ- also the confidence and psychology the scheme—the International Air retiring six of its 14 Airbus A380s, rial—a collaboration with the University of Huddersfield’s mental protection laws and best practices. For an owner, of traveling, people not having money Transport Association has called on among other aircraft. Institute for Railway Research in the UK. The new assem- compliance—and possibly going the extra mile—boosts its bly, now in testing, is lighter than conventional bogies and public image. Conversely, a negative media report that re- optimizes vertical and transverse stiffness, ELG states. veals poor management of an aircraft’s end of life can have The company has pioneered the pyrolysis technology to devastating effects. recover carbon fiber from offcuts and has a contract with “Some examples that illustrate the need for better prac- Boeing, which supplies CFRP from 787 and 777X manu - tices include aircraft stored in deserts without maintenance facturing. After pyrolysis removes the resin, the fiber is and/or proper decontamination processes and aircraft chopped and milled, then used as a reinforcement in ther- abandoned at airports or simply dismantled for aluminum moplastic composites. recovery regardless of other materials that could be re - The automotive industry uses them in nonwoven textiles covered, such as electronics or plastics,” IATA states in for compression molding. The final products are car hoods its BIPAD. and roofs, among other applications. Several car models The disassembly and dismantling phases generate haz- use such recycled fiber, according to ELG’s Gledhill. Re - ardous waste that must be safely controlled. Likewise, com- cycled carbon fiber is thus making its way to higher-value panies must curb emissions into the air, such as paint dust applications. containing heavy metals during the sawing dismantling Thermoplastics with recycled carbon fiber replace steel phase. Emissions into soil should not contain fuel spills or and magnesium with a better performance-cost ratio, Gled- wastewater. hill explains. “As vehicles go electric, they may be used for Tarmac has been using a diamond-wire cutting gantry battery containers, where strength and lightness are key.” cooled with water. The system is deemed cleaner than the What prevents the recovered carbon fiber from being commonly used hydraulic pliers. Tarmac employs a cable reused in airframes is the lengthy certification process, says to recover all the dust and cooling water. This process is Gledhill. He predicts it will first be used in less critical ap- also safer because it eliminates the risk of fire. plications, typically in cabin interiors. Tarmac has also created a mobile cutting facility in which “It retains most of its performance,” he says. If recovered it can process narrowbody fuselages in a closed environ- carbon fiber is to be incorporated in an airframe, ELG will ment, thus avoiding the dispersion of hazardous material have to prove it meets the mechanical requirements despite such as asbestos. The mobile unit can be shipped to a site the shorter fiber length. from which aircraft can no longer fly because they have In the future, the raw material going into ELG’s pyrolysis been sitting for too long in poor conditions. The first con- process may come from dismantled aircraft. This would be tract was for 63 military aircraft in France. c JOEPRIESAVIATION.NET

36 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MAY 4-17, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MAY 4-17, 2020 37 SUSTAINABILITY

lines fighting for survival and govern- Andrew Murphy, the group’s aviation mix of aircraft. The aircraft left will be ments scrambling to provide financial manager, adds. “Taxpayers’ money younger and more efficient, which on support for their carriers. must only be used if these big polluters a per-seat basis improves emissions Air France-KLM is reportedly ne- commit to the EU Green Deal, includ- credentials.” gotiating a loan of up to €10 billion ing starting to pay tax and taking up Lufthansa is already planning its ($10.8 billion) with the governments greener fuels.” future as an airline that is 20% small- of France and the Netherlands, while Strickland agrees that the airline in- er than precoronavirus, including the Norwegian Air Shuttle and SAS are dustry needs to use this deep crisis as permanent retirement of six of its among other airlines that have ne - an opportunity for a reset. “This is be- 14 Airbus A380s, seven of 17 A340- gotiated financial support from their ing seen as a wake-up call for humanity 600s, three A340-300s and five Boeing governments. and the planet—aviation has to be seen 747-400s, as well as reductions to its Could this situation lead to opportu- to be playing its part.” short-haul fleets. nities for governments to push the sus- Airlines need to demonstrate that In the short term, financing new tainability agenda? The Austrian gov- government support is justified, ac- fleet additions may be unfeasible for ernment has said its help for airlines cording to Strickland. “The only way some airlines that have had to strip should be linked to climate targets. to do that is to do something demon- their costs and investment plans to The European Federation for strably positive,” he says. “The indus- the bone to survive. But others may Transport and Environment, an entry needs to lobby governments to take advantage of lower market pric- vironmental lobby group, says air- ensure that money being taken out of es to further boost their orderbooks: lines should be supported through the sector through taxes—and then Ryanair CEO Michael O’Leary has the current crisis but that any bail- not invested back into research into already signaled this is in the cards. outs should be conditional on carri- areas like biofuels and electric aviation The COVID-19 pandemic is set to ers adopting green technologies and and better air traffic management—is reshape the aviation industry in the paying environmental taxes once con- actually spent on such things.” months and years to come, and that ditions improve, especially as crises The coronavirus crisis has prompt- could affect future programs as well as that have hit the aviation industry, ed some airlines to bring forward the existing fleet plans, Strickland says. “It such as the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist retirement of older aircraft, a move should be very much in manufactur- attacks and the severe acute respi- that should help them emit less CO2. ers’ minds, too, to expedite programs ratory syndrome historically have “We’ve heard clearly from groups that offer greater efficiency,” he says. been followed by strong rebounds in like Lufthansa and [International Air- “In the medium term, this could be a air traffic. lines Group] that certain older ground- chance for manufacturers to advance “Governments should move to ed aircraft are unlikely to come back at efficiency elements through chang- protect airline jobs but also to kick- all,” says Strickland. “Even if nothing es to forthcoming programs such as start the just transition for aviation,” else changes, that means a shift in the Boeing’s [new midmarket airplane].” c

By Plane or by Train? In an April 2 report titled, “By train or by plane? [The] traveler’s dilemma after COVID-19 amid climate change COVID-19 Could Mean concerns,” UBS researchers surveyed more than 1,000 people in China and Europe and discussed how soon a More Travel by Rail shift by Chinese and European consumers away from air to rail could happen. The takeaway: The authors of the report see air traffic > GLOBAL AIR TRAFFIC COULD TAKE A LONG-TERM growth slowing to 4.6% annually through 2028, below the DOWNTURN AFTER COVID-19 long-term average of 5%. That portends a potentially permanent throttling back for commercial aviation. By region, AIR TRAVEL LOSS COULD BE HIGH-SPEED RAIL > they see no growth in intra-European revenue passenger GAIN IN CHINA AND EUROPE kilometers through 2028, compared with just 1.8% in the U.S. and 6.1% in China’s domestic aviation market. That Michael Bruno Washington compares with 4.1%, 3.2% and 8.1%, respectively, in OEM forecasts from last year. ravelly Point is too serene for comfort. These days, “Some investments for projects to lower carbon emis- the popular public park just north of Ronald Reagan sions may be diverted to supporting the transport and GWashington National Airport’s Runway 19/1 is more travel industries [after the COVID-19 crisis], but we do not conducive to a restful picnic than aircraft spotting. believe the developed world will abandon its ambition of Indeed, if visitors listen closely against the noise of jog- ‘net zero’ carbon emissions by 2050, nor that consumers gers and bicyclists along the George Washington Memorial will no longer want to optimize the use of their time by Parkway, they might hear the distant rumble of local Met- taking longer train journeys,” the UBS team says. “We, ro and long-distance Amtrak trains ferrying passengers therefore, expect an acceleration in the shift from planes across the Potomac River. It is a frightening glimpse into to high-speed rail (HSR) in both Europe and China.” a potential future for commercial aviation that could be In addition, a survey conducted by global consulting and accelerated by COVID-19, according to new analyses. technology services firm ICF in late March and early April

38 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MAY 4-17, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST SUSTAINABILITY lines fighting for survival and govern- Andrew Murphy, the group’s aviation mix of aircraft. The aircraft left will be captured similar views from ments scrambling to provide financial manager, adds. “Taxpayers’ money younger and more efficient, which on senior- and mid-level execu- Air otes mpacted by Eisting support for their carriers. must only be used if these big polluters a per-seat basis improves emissions tives across all parts of the and pcoming igSpeed ailays Air France-KLM is reportedly ne- commit to the EU Green Deal, includ- credentials.” commercial aviation value gotiating a loan of up to €10 billion ing starting to pay tax and taking up Lufthansa is already planning its chain worldwide. Despite

($10.8 billion) with the governments greener fuels.” future as an airline that is 20% small- the economic uncertainty Stockholm of France and the Netherlands, while Strickland agrees that the airline in- er than precoronavirus, including the resulting from the novel Estimated Number of Norwegian Air Shuttle and SAS are dustry needs to use this deep crisis as permanent retirement of six of its coronavirus, one in fi ve re- Air Passengers (millions) Göteborg among other airlines that have ne - an opportunity for a reset. “This is be- 14 Airbus A380s, seven of 17 A340- spondents reported that ≤4.0 gotiated financial support from their ing seen as a wake-up call for humanity 600s, three A340-300s and five Boeing their company’s commit- ≤2.0 Edinburgh governments. and the planet—aviation has to be seen 747-400s, as well as reductions to its ment to environmental sus- ≤1.0 Could this situation lead to opportu- to be playing its part.” short-haul fleets. tainability would increase. ≤0.5 nities for governments to push the sus- Airlines need to demonstrate that In the short term, financing new “When we get to the oth- ≤0.2 Malmö 0 tainability agenda? The Austrian gov- government support is justified, ac- fleet additions may be unfeasible for er side of this, we should see Liverpool ernment has said its help for airlines cording to Strickland. “The only way some airlines that have had to strip carbon emissions reemerge Air routes impacted Hamburg should be linked to climate targets. to do that is to do something demon- their costs and investment plans to as a very important issue,” by upcoming high- speed railways Berlin Cardiff Amsterdam Hannover The European Federation for strably positive,” he says. “The indus- the bone to survive. But others may AllianceBernstein analyst Bielefeld Transport and Environment, an entry needs to lobby governments to take advantage of lower market pric- Doug Harned said April 16 London Düsseldorf Köln vironmental lobby group, says air- ensure that money being taken out of es to further boost their orderbooks: on a teleconference call. “I Brussel lines should be supported through the sector through taxes—and then Ryanair CEO Michael O’Leary has was just on a working group Frankfurt Praha the current crisis but that any bail- not invested back into research into already signaled this is in the cards. on that, and it’s a very big Paris outs should be conditional on carri- areas like biofuels and electric aviation The COVID-19 pandemic is set to deal for everyone involved. Rennes Mannheim Wien ers adopting green technologies and and better air traffic management—is reshape the aviation industry in the I think cutting emissions Strasbourg München paying environmental taxes once con- actually spent on such things.” months and years to come, and that and having a modern fleet Budapest ditions improve, especially as crises The coronavirus crisis has prompt- could affect future programs as well as will turn out to be very im- that have hit the aviation industry, ed some airlines to bring forward the existing fleet plans, Strickland says. “It portant within a couple of Brescia Padova Bordeaux Milano such as the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist retirement of older aircraft, a move should be very much in manufactur- years.” Santiago de A Coruña Venezia attacks and the severe acute respi- that should help them emit less CO2. ers’ minds, too, to expedite programs HSR long has been a po- Compostela Bilbao Toulouse Torino ratory syndrome historically have “We’ve heard clearly from groups that offer greater efficiency,” he says. tential threat to global air- Vigo San been followed by strong rebounds in like Lufthansa and [International Air- “In the medium term, this could be a liner growth. Asked what he Ourense Sebastian Nice Montpellier Marseille air traffic. lines Group] that certain older ground- chance for manufacturers to advance once watched most closely, Zamora Perpignan “Governments should move to ed aircraft are unlikely to come back at efficiency elements through chang- chief Boeing salesman Ran- Roma Madrid Barcelona Bari protect airline jobs but also to kick- all,” says Strickland. “Even if nothing es to forthcoming programs such as dy Tinseth told Aviation Tarragona start the just transition for aviation,” else changes, that means a shift in the Boeing’s [new midmarket airplane].” c Week that adoption of HSR Badajoz Napoli overseas was a key variable. València In one ironic example Sevilla closer to home, aerospace Alicante 0 250 500 km In an April 2 report titled, “By train or by plane? [The] executives, analysts and ad- Málaga By Plane or by Train? 0 250 500 mi. traveler’s dilemma after COVID-19 amid climate change visors on the U.S. East Coast Almeria COVID-19 Could Mean concerns,” UBS researchers surveyed more than 1,000 often prefer riding Amtrak’s people in China and Europe and discussed how soon a Acela between Boston and More Travel by Rail shift by Chinese and European consumers away from air Washington. Quietly they Source: S vience a to rail could happen. will tell journalists they fi nd The takeaway: The authors of the report see air traffic the curb-to-seat, boot-up-the-computer experience of High-speed rail long has been a potential threat to global GLOBAL AIR TRAFFIC COULD TAKE A LONG-TERM > growth slowing to 4.6% annually through 2028, below the HSR more convenient than airportSource: S and vience airline a travel, es- airliner growth. DOWNTURN AFTER COVID-19 long-term average of 5%. That portends a potentially per- pecially as the latter is more susceptible to bad weather manent throttling back for commercial aviation. By region, and tra c delays. successors feature 15-20% better fuel burn and count AIR TRAVEL LOSS COULD BE HIGH-SPEED RAIL > they see no growth in intra-European revenue passenger According to data from the UBS Evidence Lab survey 10-15% more seats, dropping carbon dioxide (CO 2) per GAIN IN CHINA AND EUROPE kilometers through 2028, compared with just 1.8% in the of 1,000 people in France, Italy, Germany, Spain and Chi- passenger. In the end, the cuts could save 2.7-3.4 million U.S. and 6.1% in China’s domestic aviation market. That na, leisure travelers will tolerate 5-6 hr. on a train. EU tons of CO2 per year. Michael Bruno Washington compares with 4.1%, 3.2% and 8.1%, respectively, in OEM business travelers would be willing to accept up to 4 hr. The relatively good news for aircraft OEMs and suppli- forecasts from last year. compared with the consensus of 2-3 hr. Meanwhile, HSR ers is that new-generation aircraft and deliveries are not ravelly Point is too serene for comfort. These days, “Some investments for projects to lower carbon emis- in China has taken more travelers o the roads than away seen as vulnerable. The bad news, however, is that after- the popular public park just north of Ronald Reagan sions may be diverted to supporting the transport and from airlines, according to UBS. But that could change. market revenue tied to older aircraft is at greater risk. GWashington National Airport’s Runway 19/1 is more travel industries [after the COVID-19 crisis], but we do not Service and frequency are key drivers of demand for lon- How accurate the forecasts are remains to be seen, but conducive to a restful picnic than aircraft spotting. believe the developed world will abandon its ambition of ger train journeys, and both can be improved when com- UBS researchers are certain COVID-19 will lead to lasting Indeed, if visitors listen closely against the noise of jog- ‘net zero’ carbon emissions by 2050, nor that consumers petition among operators is introduced. changes. “As well as the economic downturn triggered by gers and bicyclists along the George Washington Memorial will no longer want to optimize the use of their time by In turn, UBS estimates around 12% fewer single-aisle COVID-19, movement restrictions may also be remem- Parkway, they might hear the distant rumble of local Met- taking longer train journeys,” the UBS team says. “We, aircraft would be needed in 2018-28, as that class dom- bered for having abruptly reduced emissions in developed ro and long-distance Amtrak trains ferrying passengers therefore, expect an acceleration in the shift from planes inates routes shorter than 1,000 km (600 mi.). Much of and emerging countries for weeks, [and] triggered new across the Potomac River. It is a frightening glimpse into to high-speed rail (HSR) in both Europe and China.” the fl eet reduction likely would come from accelerated habits—remote working, the use of social video-calling a potential future for commercial aviation that could be In addition, a survey conducted by global consulting and retirement of older, ine cient narrowbodies such as the apps—and given a majority of the population the experi- accelerated by COVID-19, according to new analyses. technology services firm ICF in late March and early April Boeing 737 Next Generation and Airbus A320ceo. Their ence of much lower levels of pollution,” UBS says. c

38 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MAY 4-17, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MAY 4-17, 2020 3 SUSTAINABILITY

Ambitious Flight-Test Regime The RACER’s main gearbox re - mains in development, in collabora- Planned for RACER Demonstrator tion with Italy’s Avio Aero, and is one of a handful of elements that has not > THE FIRST FLIGHT IS PLANNED FOR THE FOURTH QUARTER OF 2021 been finalized through the CDR. The complicated gearbox design features > THE TEAM IS FINALIZING THE MAIN GEARBOX CONFIGURATION two driveshafts, each running through the upper box wing to the lateral gearbox, which in turn drives the lateral propellers. The shafts are supercriti- cal components that operate at up to 3,000 rpm. Later this year, the RACER team will run fatigue and endurance tests on the gearbox to prepare it for installation in the aircraft. Similar to the X 3 design, the RACER’s lateral propellers will be made from wood. The RACER’s flight-test campaign “is quite ambitious,” Makinadjian notes, initially focusing on opening the flight envelope. The company is confident the aircraft can achieve cruising speeds of Although it is a critical technology around 220 kt. and will likely go faster. 3 brick, the RACER engine’s electric “The aim of the X was to demon- eco-mode will feature later in the strate the formula,” Makinadjian says. “Now we want to be more ambitious flight-test program. [and] demonstrate some missions, AIRBUS HELICOPTERS some capability.” Tony Osborne London One possible demonstration could be to try to fly from Paris to London irbus and its partners may developed a box wing, which increases in 1 hr., he suggests. have cut metal on the first lift and allows the landing gear to be The Safran-developed eco-mode Acomponents for its Rapid and installed in the lower wing section. hybrid-electrical system, which allows Cost-Efficient Rotorcraft (RACER) Work began on manufacturing com- one of the two Aneto-1X engines to be demonstrator, but the world will have ponents following a successful critical shut down while in cruise flight, will not to wait until late 2021 before it takes design review (CDR) in 2019. Partners feature in early flights. The capability to the skies. have already produced the windshield will be added later in the flight-test cam- Program management complexi- through a Clean Sky program called paign. “The RACER is a new formula, ties have nudged the first flight back FastCan in conjunction with companies even compared to the X3, and there are a year, says RACER Chief Engineer in the motor-racing industry. The cano- significant differences,” Makinadjian -ex Brice Makinadjian. Airbus is working py is designed to deal with bird strikes plains. “With all these novelties, we will with 50 copartners and 30 entities, while operating at much higher speeds. have to be a little humble and do things and “this is slowing the speed of the Cockpit doors, fuselage longerons and step-by-step. Before we stop an engine development,” he says. “But we are frames have also been produced, along in flight, we would like to be able to mas- paving a new way of collaborating with with elements of the landing gear. The ter the way [the RACER] is behaving.” our partners. . . . So if this is the price fuselage will be delivered this summer. The eco-mode uses a high-voltage to pay, it is worthwhile.” Unlike the X3, which reused com- system that can rapidly spool up the The €200 million ($217 million) ponents from aircraft in the then- idled engine when additional engine RACER’s development was funded Eurocopter family lineup, the RACER power is required, such as during hover- through the European Union’s Clean is a largely new design. Makinadjian ing, takeoff or landing. The RACER will Sky 2 aerospace research initiative, notes that the aircraft will use the feature a generator developed by Italy’s and it builds on and aims to refine the H175’s main rotor system for its first ASE S.p.A. fitted to the main gearbox of company’s work with its X3 high-speed flight, however; a new blade currently the aircraft, which will convert mechan- compound rotorcraft that took to the under development and optimized for ical into electric power producing 270 air in 2010. On the X3, lateral tractor high-speed flight will be installed later. volts direct current. The aircraft will propellers with variable pitch provided The new blade is part of a French also feature a generator control unit anti-torque, while the main rotor was research program and will feature an to regulate the power output in case of slowed to reduce drag from the ad- “evolution in the shape of the blade,” overvoltage and overcurrent. vancing blade tip and wings provided Makinadjian says, although he would The RACER aims to prove that even lift in cruise. On the RACER, the lat- not say whether it would use active with additional performance, rotor- eral propellers have been turned into systems like the company’s Blue Pulse craft technology can deliver reductions pusher propellers, and engineers have active blade tested during 2009. of up to 20% in emissions and noise. c

40 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MAY 4-17, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST SUSTAINABILITY MANUFACTURING AIRBUS

Ambitious Flight-Test Regime The RACER’s main gearbox re - mains in development, in collabora- AIRBUS TARGETS Planned for RACER Demonstrator tion with Italy’s Avio Aero, and is one of a handful of elements that has not > THE FIRST FLIGHT IS PLANNED FOR THE FOURTH QUARTER OF 2021 been finalized through the CDR. The PRODUCTION ADVANCES complicated gearbox design features > THE TEAM IS FINALIZING THE MAIN GEARBOX CONFIGURATION two driveshafts, each running through WITH the upper box wing to the lateral gear- DIGITAL TOOLS box, which in turn drives the lateral propellers. The shafts are supercriti- cal components that operate at up to 3,000 rpm. Later this year, the RACER team will run fatigue and endurance tests on the gearbox to prepare it for installation in the aircraft. Similar to the X 3 design, the RACER’s lateral propellers will be made from wood. The RACER’s flight-test campaign “is quite ambitious,” Makinadjian notes, initially focusing on opening the flight envelope. The company is confident the aircraft can achieve cruising speeds of Although it is a critical technology around 220 kt. and will likely go faster. 3 brick, the RACER engine’s electric “The aim of the X was to demon- eco-mode will feature later in the strate the formula,” Makinadjian says. “Now we want to be more ambitious flight-test program. [and] demonstrate some missions, AIRBUS HELICOPTERS some capability.” Tony Osborne London One possible demonstration could be to try to fly from Paris to London irbus and its partners may developed a box wing, which increases in 1 hr., he suggests. have cut metal on the first lift and allows the landing gear to be The Safran-developed eco-mode components for its Rapid and installed in the lower wing section. hybrid-electrical system, which allows A Airbus’ manufacturing execution Cost-Efficient Rotorcraft (RACER) Work began on manufacturing com- one of the two Aneto-1X engines to be > NEW TOOLS HELP INFORMATION CIRCULATE demonstrator, but the world will have ponents following a successful critical shut down while in cruise flight, will not system now has 8,000 users. to wait until late 2021 before it takes design review (CDR) in 2019. Partners feature in early flights. The capability > BENEFITS ARE EXPECTED IN QUALITY AND ate more value, involve less support to the skies. have already produced the windshield will be added later in the flight-test cam- ON-TIME DELIVERY and generate less associated cost. Program management complexi- through a Clean Sky program called paign. “The RACER is a new formula, The approach establishes links ties have nudged the first flight back FastCan in conjunction with companies even compared to the X3, and there are > VIRTUAL AND AUGMENTED REALITY HAVE between interdependent organiza- a year, says RACER Chief Engineer in the motor-racing industry. The cano- significant differences,” Makinadjian -ex YET TO MATURE tions that did not realize they were Brice Makinadjian. Airbus is working py is designed to deal with bird strikes plains. “With all these novelties, we will working in silos. “We have to enhance with 50 copartners and 30 entities, while operating at much higher speeds. have to be a little humble and do things synergy between sites and functions,” and “this is slowing the speed of the Cockpit doors, fuselage longerons and step-by-step. Before we stop an engine Thierry Dubois Lyon says Hontans. “Instead of introducing development,” he says. “But we are frames have also been produced, along in flight, we would like to be able to mas- several tools that do the same thing paving a new way of collaborating with with elements of the landing gear. The ter the way [the RACER] is behaving.” irbus is reorganizing how it brings digital tools to on different sites, let’s have sites our partners. . . . So if this is the price fuselage will be delivered this summer. The eco-mode uses a high-voltage production workers, looking to keep only relevant codesigning.” 3 to pay, it is worthwhile.” Unlike the X , which reused com- system that can rapidly spool up the ones and increase adoption of their use. And further In commercial aircraft production, The €200 million ($217 million) ponents from aircraft in the then- idled engine when additional engine lead times need to be predictable, RACER’s development was funded Eurocopter family lineup, the RACER power is required, such as during hover- Astreamlining of manufacturing can be expected, open- standardized and reliable. “Last year, through the European Union’s Clean is a largely new design. Makinadjian ing, takeoff or landing. The RACER will ing the way to eradicate causes of delivery delays. the aerospace industry was nowhere Sky 2 aerospace research initiative, notes that the aircraft will use the feature a generator developed by Italy’s close to that, and variability was pro- and it builds on and aims to refine the H175’s main rotor system for its first ASE S.p.A. fitted to the main gearbox of The airframer has been on a learn- company.” Hontans is in charge of dig- digious,” says Jerome Bouchard, aero- company’s work with its X3 high-speed flight, however; a new blade currently the aircraft, which will convert mechan- ing curve, and early initiatives have ital transformation for all Airbus sites. space partner at consultancy Oliver compound rotorcraft that took to the under development and optimized for ical into electric power producing 270 been abundant. “There was an era Profusion was creating problems Wyman. “The cycle at a given station air in 2010. On the X3, lateral tractor high-speed flight will be installed later. volts direct current. The aircraft will of proof-of-concepts that were not al- such as a lack of awareness of tool could double due to a need for rework, propellers with variable pitch provided The new blade is part of a French also feature a generator control unit ways delivering scalable beneﬁ ts but usage, she notes. And a cybersecurity a missing part, a discrepancy or dam- anti-torque, while the main rotor was research program and will feature an to regulate the power output in case of were extremely useful to grow our issue was looming, as increasing the age caused by a worker.” slowed to reduce drag from the ad- “evolution in the shape of the blade,” overvoltage and overcurrent. digital maturity,” says Marie Hontans, number of tools increases exposure. Complying with the takt time—the vancing blade tip and wings provided Makinadjian says, although he would The RACER aims to prove that even vice president of the digital industri- So Hontans’ team is building “a new target duration of a cycle at a worksta- lift in cruise. On the RACER, the lat- not say whether it would use active with additional performance, rotor- al value stream. “From last year, we way to orchestrate tools and process- tion—is key. “You need digital tools to eral propellers have been turned into systems like the company’s Blue Pulse craft technology can deliver reductions stepped back on the number of tools, es.” The idea is to have fewer but bet- meet your takt time,” says Bouchard. pusher propellers, and engineers have active blade tested during 2009. of up to 20% in emissions and noise. c which was growing fast across the ter-integrated tools. They should cre- Digitized information, such as an

40 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MAY 4-17, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MAY 4-17, 2020 4 MANUFACTURING

aircraft’s digital mockup (DMU), has tal tool involves working the same way duced to the minimum steps to follow. been very design-engineer-centric in at every site, in every country. The Nonexpert employees receive com- the past, but it is now being shared benefit is that it standardizes the way plete work instructions, with more with workers on the production floor, of working, down to the detail level. details and DMU extracts to position adds Eric Ciampi, Oliver Wyman Operations during a takt cycle are themselves. The ISOI tool adapts au- partner and head of its of operations supposed to be executed in the same tomatically to a person’s skill level, practice in France. Digital continuity creates links between four categories of employees: design engineers, manufacturing engineers, workers on the “Instead of introducing several tools that do the same production floor and quality inspec- thing on different sites, let’s have sites codesigning.” tors, adds Bouchard. Some of the tools and systems are —Marie Hontans, Airbus vice president of the digital industrial value stream achieving results in Airbus factories. The manufacturing execution system (MES) now has 8,000 users, most of order, as sequences are interdepen- classified via a personalized ID. them in blue-collar positions. It helps dent. This translates into efficiency With ISOI, an alert can be contex- them accurately regulate their tim- and quality improvement. “At stake tualized, adds Hontans. The worker ing, certify their operations and esca- in digitizing production is reducing receives an alert if a quality issue was late issues when they need support, quality issues,” says Ciampi. noticed previously at the stage they says Hontans. The interactive standard operat- were working on. In Broughton, Wales, the MES has ing instructions (ISOI) tool is a com- The MES creates an improvement

P. PIGEYRE/AIRBUS loop. Thanks to Digital Design Manufacturing and Services (DDMS), the way a factory runs can be simulated thoroughly. In the near future, “we will be able to model the industrial system and highlight problems before they even happen,” says Hon- tans. “Changes to the industrial system will be based on extremely detailed knowledge of what causes problems.” Digi- tal tools are integrated with DDMS. Feedback can improve lead-time consistency. If a task is estimated to last 4 hr., and data shows it regularly takes 6 hr., manufacturing engineers can rethink it, says Ciampi. They can either Digitized information, thus far ponent of the MES. It personalizes streamline operations or update work design-engineer-centric, is now being instructions so that each worker re- instructions to match reality. ceives the level of detail they need. It ISOI may follow a trend seen in shared with production workers. displays a version of the digital mock- other industries, where work instruc- been introduced into the wing man- up, as opposed to a PDF document. tions are becoming more intuitive and ufacturing process. “We have faced Available on smartphones and based on user experience. Cameras challenges, but use rates are now very tablets, the tool is in use at the Air- may be used for quality checks and high, and the advantages are visible bus fuselage assembly plant in Saint- feedback sent to the manufacturing to all,” says Keith Baxter, Airbus digi- Nazaire, France, for example. engineering office, says Ciampi. tal plateau leader. “Managers used to For the expert worker, the ISOI The A321neo final assembly line find out about disruptions at the end tool highlights changes to previous in Toulouse, the creation of which is of a shift or even week. Now we are work instructions. Every modifica- now on hold, was understood to be moving toward real-time information.” tion or warning is dynamically sent the Airbus Factory 4.0 showcase, Change management has been a to the operator, pointing out that it is with the facility’s layout to be de - challenge, says Hontans. Using a digi- new. The expert view is simplified, re- signed from a clean sheet.

42 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MAY 4-17, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST MANUFACTURING aircraft’s digital mockup (DMU), has tal tool involves working the same way duced to the minimum steps to follow. Projection can help been very design-engineer-centric in at every site, in every country. The Nonexpert employees receive com- workers find the right the past, but it is now being shared benefit is that it standardizes the way plete work instructions, with more location for their task. with workers on the production floor, of working, down to the detail level. details and DMU extracts to position adds Eric Ciampi, Oliver Wyman Operations during a takt cycle are themselves. The ISOI tool adapts au- Next year, Hontans ex- partner and head of its of operations supposed to be executed in the same tomatically to a person’s skill level, pects that smart, connect- practice in France. Digital continuity ed tools will start being creates links between four categories used. A smart drill knows of employees: design engineers, man- the parameters for on- ufacturing engineers, workers on the “Instead of introducing several tools that do the same time and quality drilling: production floor and quality inspec- thing on different sites, let’s have sites codesigning.” It will perceive whether it tors, adds Bouchard. was done correctly, she ex- Some of the tools and systems are —Marie Hontans, Airbus vice president of the digital industrial value stream plains. Applying the wrong achieving results in Airbus factories. torque will cause the oper- The manufacturing execution system ation to be rejected. (MES) now has 8,000 users, most of order, as sequences are interdepen- classified via a personalized ID. Such tools have been them in blue-collar positions. It helps dent. This translates into efficiency With ISOI, an alert can be contex- used by Airbus Defense them accurately regulate their tim- and quality improvement. “At stake tualized, adds Hontans. The worker and Space for satellite ing, certify their operations and esca- in digitizing production is reducing receives an alert if a quality issue was manufacturing. However, late issues when they need support, quality issues,” says Ciampi. noticed previously at the stage they there is no such thing as a AIRBUS says Hontans. The interactive standard operat- were working on. copy-and-paste process between divi- operator can then focus on that 10%, that can be found at some suppliers’ In Broughton, Wales, the MES has ing instructions (ISOI) tool is a com- The MES creates an improvement sions, and smart tools have yet to ma- drastically cutting the inspection production facilities.

P. PIGEYRE/AIRBUS loop. Thanks to Digital ture for commercial aircraft, Hontans task’s lead time. Moreover, mixed-reality technology Design Manufacturing says. They need to be integrated into AI may also help improve quality by has yet to achieve convincing results and Services (DDMS), the information system’s landscape. establishing a relationship between a for Hontans. Prototypes of Microsoft the way a factory runs Some applications of digitization problem and input parameters, Cia- HoloLens goggles have been used at can be simulated thor- are only emerging. “Warehouses have mpi suggests. A system may find that several sites for various tasks such oughly. In the near fu- as guiding the installation of wiring ture, “we will be able harnesses on the A330 military Multi- to model the industrial Role Tanker Transport in Getafe, system and highlight “If a task is estimated to last 4 hr. and Spain. Airbus hoped there would be problems before they data shows it regularly takes 6 hr., manufacturing a considerable improvement in work even happen,” says Hon- speed, as operators can see instruc- tans. “Changes to the engineers can start rethinking it.” tions and diagrams layered over the industrial system will be work they are carrying out. —Eric Ciampi, Oliver Wyman partner and head based on extremely de- However, making the goggles com- tailed knowledge of what of its operations practice in France fortable enough to be worn for sev- causes problems.” Digi- eral hours is a complex ergonomical tal tools are integrated yet to digitize entirely for automated 80% of a problem’s occurrences cor- problem. “The technology may be with DDMS. part inventory management,” says respond to certain conditions. Using spectacular, but it does not neces- Feedback can improve Hontans. “We use several technol- that data, training may be improved sarily meet our needs from a content lead-time consistency. If ogies for tracking, such as 4G and or work instructions revised. standpoint,” says Hontans. The device a task is estimated to Wi-Fi. Such automation is in progress Hontans is cautious, however, about has been found to be better suited for last 4 hr., and data shows and part of the digital transformation. augmented and virtual reality. They inspection and maintenance than for it regularly takes 6 hr., It brings efficiency and process adher- are used in a few situations, mostly for production. manufacturing engi- ence to our logistics.” post-assembly inspection purposes. Despite all the benefits, digitiza- neers can rethink it, says Using the Internet of Things, some A virtual reality tool can project the tion cannot solve every issue. Would Ciampi. They can either companies are now able to pinpoint right configuration, superimposing it A321neo delivery delays have been Digitized information, thus far ponent of the MES. It personalizes streamline operations or update work the location of objects in the factory, onto the actual aircraft in construc- avoided with such tools? “A digital tool design-engineer-centric, is now being instructions so that each worker re- instructions to match reality. helping to prevent tools from being tion so that the inspector can see any is no magic wand. It helps a process if ceives the level of detail they need. It ISOI may follow a trend seen in mislaid in a hidden nook of an aircraft. deviation. In production, frames are the process was well-designed and is shared with production workers. displays a version of the digital mock- other industries, where work instruc- Current technologies, such as the use projected to show the locations where well-executed,” Hontans answers. been introduced into the wing man- up, as opposed to a PDF document. tions are becoming more intuitive and of smart light bulbs, will evolve with holes should be drilled. Some serendipity may come into ufacturing process. “We have faced Available on smartphones and based on user experience. Cameras 5G wireless telecommunications. The reasons virtual or augment- play. Digitization has been improving challenges, but use rates are now very tablets, the tool is in use at the Air- may be used for quality checks and Digital continuity may simplify ed reality are not often used can be the image of perhaps unappealing high, and the advantages are visible bus fuselage assembly plant in Saint- feedback sent to the manufacturing quality inspection, a complex task found in the layout of a workstation production jobs. “[M]ore people will to all,” says Keith Baxter, Airbus digi- Nazaire, France, for example. engineering office, says Ciampi. involving much paperwork. A 3D and the industrial maturity of the be able to be trained for production tal plateau leader. “Managers used to For the expert worker, the ISOI The A321neo final assembly line scanner may shorten the inspection existing solutions, says Hontans. In jobs because the repetitive, handcraft find out about disruptions at the end tool highlights changes to previous in Toulouse, the creation of which is cycle through the use of artificial most assembly stations, more than 10 aspects will see their importance de- of a shift or even week. Now we are work instructions. Every modifica- now on hold, was understood to be intelligence (AI). On a large subas- people work simultaneously in a rel- creasing,” says Ciampi. moving toward real-time information.” tion or warning is dynamically sent the Airbus Factory 4.0 showcase, sembly, the system can confirm 90% atively small space. This is different This is in line with the industry’s Change management has been a to the operator, pointing out that it is with the facility’s layout to be de - compliance and indicate uncertainty from fixed jigs with a couple of work- effort to allocate employees to high- challenge, says Hontans. Using a digi- new. The expert view is simplified, re- signed from a clean sheet. about the remaining 10%. The human ers walking around, a configuration value-added tasks. c

42 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MAY 4-17, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MAY 4-17, 2020 43 DEFENSE > U.S. nuclear upgrade suppliers p. 46 Autonomous aerial refueling p. 47 Japan detection-range boost p. 52 Norway-U.S. ramjet tie-up p. 53

A single B-1B is now expected to Hypersonic Mass carry up to six AGM-183As, which is part of a strategy shift driving Pentagon planners to focus on laying Production the groundwork for affordable large-scale production of future > PENTAGON FORMS HYPERSONIC INDUSTRY “WAR ROOM” hypersonic missiles.

> UNIT PRICING FOR MISSILE PRODUCTION IS Weapon (ARRW), the Army’s Long- STILL UNCLEAR Range Hypersonic Weapon (LRHW) and the Navy’s Conventional Prompt Strike (CPS) missile. DARPA’s scramjet-powered cruise missile, the Hyper- sonic Air-Breathing Weapon Concept (HAWC), remains a demonstrator. Only the Common Hypersonic Glide Body (the front-end shared by the LRHW and CPS) has even been tested: The preweaponized Block 0 version completed a successful test flight on March 19. The ARRW’s DARPA-led demonstrator, the Tactical Boost Glide, is scheduled to enter flight tests later this year, along with the HAWC. Beyond the 40 prototype missiles on hand, the Pentagon’s latest spending plans show no funding to produce operational hypersonic weapons at any scale. To pave the way for an affordable production strategy, the Pentagon’s Research and Engineering division has teamed up with the Acquisition and Sustainment branch to create a “war room” for the hypersonic industrial base, says Mark Lewis, director of research and engineering for modernization. “At the end of the day, we have to be careful we’re not building boutique weapons,” he says. “If we build boutique weapons, we won’t—we’ll be very reluctant to—use them. And that again factors into our plans for delivering hypersonics at scale.” Defining what affordability means in the hypersonic market segment still is not clear. Will Roper, assistant secretary of the Air Force for acquisition, technology and logistics, said more than a year ago that an ideal unit cost of a hypersonic missile at full-rate pro- LOCKHEED MARTIN duction should be similar to that of an Steve Trimble Washington advanced air interceptor, such as the Patriot missile. The average cost of the s the U.S. hypersonic weapons can be purchased in volumes of hun- latest version of the Patriot is about strategy tilts toward valuing dreds or even thousands. $4 million per missile. Aa quantity approach, the new Officially, the Pentagon has not But Air Force and defense officials focus for top defense planners—even adopted any plans to move beyond have been promoting concepts for op- as a four-year battery of flight testing the prototype phase for the three erating air-launched hypersonic mis- begins—is to create an industrial base acknowledged rocket-boosted glid- siles in swarm attacks. The B-1B, for that can produce missiles affordably er programs: the Air Force’s AGM- example, will be modified to carry six enough that the high-speed weapons 183A Air-Launched Rapid Response AGM-183As, with each including a hy-

44 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MAY 4-17, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST DEFENSE > U.S. nuclear upgrade suppliers p. 46 Autonomous aerial refueling p. 47 Japan detection-range boost p. 52 Norway-U.S. ramjet tie-up p. 53

A single B-1B is now expected to personic glide vehicle and a 30-in.-dia. There are signs the industry is uncertain. Meeting the Pentagon’s Hypersonic Mass carry up to six AGM-183As, which is booster. However, Lewis bristles at preparing for the production ramp- affordability goals requires making part of a strategy shift driving drawing unit-cost comparisons be- up. On Jan. 10, Spirit AeroSystems, investments now in hypersonic pro- tween hypersonic missiles and long- a large-volume fuselage supplier for duction capacity. The Pentagon still Pentagon planners to focus on laying range, subsonic and stealthy cruise Airbus and Boeing commercial air- has no funded programs of record, Production the groundwork for affordable missiles, such as the roughly $1.2 mil- craft, announced the acquisition of however, and has only completed one large-scale production of future lion AGM-158B Joint Air-to-Surface Fiber Materials Inc. (FMI), a Maine- flight test since 2017. The presidential > PENTAGON FORMS HYPERSONIC INDUSTRY “WAR ROOM” hypersonic missiles. Standoff Missile-Extended Range. based company specializing in man- election later this year could bring “I think it’s a poorly posed question ufacturing 3D-woven carbon-carbon with it possible implications for the > UNIT PRICING FOR MISSILE PRODUCTION IS Weapon (ARRW), the Army’s Long- to ask about affordability per unit,” structures for high-temperature ap- military’s spending priorities. How STILL UNCLEAR Range Hypersonic Weapon (LRHW) Lewis says. “We have to think of it in plications. Spirit AeroSystems’ an- the industrial base scales up for pro- and the Navy’s Conventional Prompt terms of the affordability of the capa- nouncement of the acquisition point- duction as testing continues over the Strike (CPS) missile. DARPA’s scram- bility that we’re providing. By that I ed to potential hypersonic missile next years will be critical. jet-powered cruise missile, the Hyper- mean: If I’ve got a hypersonic system production, given the possible com- “The simple answer is: We don’t sonic Air-Breathing Weapon Concept that costs twice as much as its subson- bination of FMI’s high-temperature know what these things cost,” Lewis (HAWC), remains a demonstrator. ic counterpart but is five times more skill and the Kansas-based supplier’s says. “We’ve asked the primes to con- Only the Common Hypersonic Glide effective, well, clearly, that’s an advan- high-volume production system. sider costs as they’re developing, and Body (the front-end shared by the tageous cost scenario.” But the stakes for industry remain I think they are.” c LRHW and CPS) has even been tested: The preweaponized Block 0 version completed a successful test flight on March 19. The ARRW’s DARPA-led nology for an interceptor missile: a demonstrator, the Tactical Boost Glide, MBDA Patent Offers New Glimpse Into nose-mounted endgame seeker. Long- is scheduled to enter flight tests later range flight above Mach 5 exposes the this year, along with the HAWC. Beyond Europe’s Hypersonic Weapon Plans interceptor to airflow temperatures of the 40 prototype missiles on hand, the several hundred degrees Celsius. As a Pentagon’s latest spending plans show > PATENT INVOLVES NOSE-MOUNTED ENDGAME SEEKER result, the nose-mounted seeker must no funding to produce operational hy- be shielded within a nose cone until personic weapons at any scale. > MBDA LEADS FIVE-NATION INTERCEPTOR EFFORT the last few seconds. To pave the way for an affordable The problem then becomes how production strategy, the Pentagon’s to eject the nose cone without dam- Research and Engineering division aging the seeker. Using a pyrotechnic has teamed up with the Acquisition as the actuator for an explosive bolt and Sustainment branch to create a EUROPEAN UNION EUROPEAN “war room” for the hypersonic indus- MBDA has started working on solving trial base, says Mark Lewis, director some of the hardest challenges posed of research and engineering for mod- by development of an interceptor for ernization. maneuvering hypersonic missiles. “At the end of the day, we have to be careful we’re not building boutique is problematic; even if the skin tem- weapons,” he says. “If we build bou- peratures do not accidentally set off tique weapons, we won’t—we’ll be very the pyrotechnics, the explosion risks reluctant to—use them. And that again damaging or blinding the sensor. factors into our plans for delivering hy- MBDA’s patent proposes a one- personics at scale.” piece assembly for the actuation Defining what affordability means in Steve Trimble Washington device, which includes thermal insu- the hypersonic market segment still is newly filed patent applica- with Space-based Theater surveil- lation to shield a pyrotechnic charge not clear. Will Roper, assistant secre- tion offers a rare glimpse in- lance (Twister) program, which seeks and prevent an accidental explosion. tary of the Air Force for acquisition, Aside Euro pean missile house to develop by 2030 an interceptor At the right time, the charge would technology and logistics, said more MBDA’s hypersonic weapon technol- against a range of threats, including be set off inside the device. Instead than a year ago that an ideal unit cost ogy program and shows how the com- hypersonic gliders and cruise missiles of blowing open the bolt, the charge of a hypersonic missile at full-rate pro- pany has started working to solve one (AW&ST April 6-19, p. 14). would generate an overpressure LOCKHEED MARTIN duction should be similar to that of an of the most difficult challenges posed “This patent relates to applications within the device. The overpressure Steve Trimble Washington advanced air interceptor, such as the by hypersonic weapons. linked to very high-speed missiles, would actuate a piston rod to slam Patriot missile. The average cost of the The April 9 application filed with the including hypersonic,” MBDA tells into the shell of the nose cone. The s the U.S. hypersonic weapons can be purchased in volumes of hun- latest version of the Patriot is about U.S. Patent and Trademark Office by Aviation Week. “Be aware that MBDA sensor could then be activated to lock strategy tilts toward valuing dreds or even thousands. $4 million per missile. MBDA France comes as France and the is pursuing a European program for an onto the target. Aa quantity approach, the new Officially, the Pentagon has not But Air Force and defense officials UK deepen interests in pursuing hyper- interceptor against hypersonic and ma- MBDA’s hypersonic development focus for top defense planners—even adopted any plans to move beyond have been promoting concepts for op- sonic speed for a future class of cruise neuvering ballistic threats that could extends beyond interceptors: It also is as a four-year battery of flight testing the prototype phase for the three erating air-launched hypersonic mis- missiles, projectiles and interceptors. be an application for this patent.” creating the ASN4G, a scramjet-pow- begins—is to create an industrial base acknowledged rocket-boosted glid- siles in swarm attacks. The B-1B, for Last November, MBDA accepted The application with the U.S. patent ered, air-launched cruise missile to that can produce missiles affordably er programs: the Air Force’s AGM- example, will be modified to carry six the lead in a five-nation pact called office, which follows French approv- replace the French ASMP-A nuclear enough that the high-speed weapons 183A Air-Launched Rapid Response AGM-183As, with each including a hy- the Timely Warning and Interception al in 2018, focuses on a critical tech- deterrent by the mid-2030s. c

44 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MAY 4-17, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MAY 4-17, 2020 45 DEFENSE

Raytheon’s LRSO Prize Completes the Air Force still believes an LRSO can be developed on time and affordably. Nuclear Modernization Supplier Roles “I am confident in the program office’s ability to execute the next phase’s > RAYTHEON IS NOW THE SOLE SOURCE FOR THE $4.5 BILLION MISSILE contract negotiations in a single-source environment and maintain schedule > LRSO PRESERVES THE B-52 NUCLEAR ROLE AFTER 2030 and affordability,” Morris said. The end of the LRSO competition Steve Trimble Washington comes less than seven months before a presidential election with potentially aytheon now stands as the sole on April 17 without any fanfare on the dramatic implications for the Penta- remaining bidder for the Long- website of Global Strike Command, and gon’s nuclear modernization plan. RRange Standoff (LRSO) pro- it went unnoticed there until April 20. Former Vice President Joe Biden, the gram, a $4.5 billion cruise missile that The Air Force Nuclear Weapons presumptive Democratic Party pres- replaces the AGM-86B and preserves Center (AFNWC), which manages the idential nominee, was serving in the a nuclear strike role for a portion of program, later clarified the key events administration of former President the B-52 fleet beyond 2030. that led up to the sole-source decision in Barack Obama when the LRSO and Competitive bidding processes favor of Raytheon. The Air Force com- GBSD acquisition programs launched, sometimes do not end as planned, and pleted a preliminary design review for but his support for both is not assured. that sentiment has proved true for the Lockheed’s LRSO concept in October An essay by Biden published in U.S. Air Force’s nuclear modernization 2019, followed by Raytheon’s version the March/April issue of the journal portfolio. The bidding war between in November. A traditional downselect Foreign Affairs states that he believes Northrop Grumman and the tandem of process did not follow, but the Air Force the U.S. nuclear arsenal should be used Boeing and Lockheed Martin to build decided to end the competition. only for deterrence and retaliation. If the B-21 ended formally in 2015 with a Maj. Gen. Shaun Morris, the AFNWC elected, that statement suggests Biden could become the first U.S. president to declare a “no first use” policy for nuclear weapons. Byron Callan, an analyst for Capital Alpha Partners, said in an April 22 note to investors that such a policy would continue to value the role of submarine-launched missiles as a deterrent and retaliatory strike option but would make the GBSD and LRSO options vulnerable. The Air Force launched the LRSO program in 2010 to replace 375 AGM- 86Bs that entered service after 1982.

AIRMAN 1ST CLASS JACOB B. WRIGHTSMAN/U.S. AIR FORCE WRIGHTSMAN/U.S. B. AIRMAN 1ST CLASS JACOB With the Boeing-designed cruise missiles scheduled to be retired due to ob- solescence in 2030, the B-52 will need a In November 2019, an Air Force ground crew demilitarized the last AGM-86C new missile with standoff range to per- conventional air-launched cruise missile. The nuclear version will continue in form the nuclear strike mission. The service until replaced by the LRSO in 2030. Air Force’s requirements for LRSO include the capacity to navigate to a tar- $21.4 billion contract award to Northrop commander, said the terms of the get in a GPS-denied environment and Grumman. However, the competition for risk-reduction phase “enabled us to the ability to survive against a complex, the Ground-Based Strategic Deterrent select a high-confidence design at integrated air defense system. (GBSD) program has been less fierce. this point in the acquisition process.” Raytheon’s status as the LRSO Activity fizzled when Boeing decided to Meanwhile, Lockheed continues to of- sole-source supplier also offers the withdraw last year, leaving Northrop as fer its expertise on sensors and nuclear Air Force a new industrial option for the sole bidder for an $80 billion con- certification for the LRSO, but formal- a future conventional cruise missile. tract expected to be signed shortly. izing that role will require a new con- Lockheed Martin already supplies The competition for the nuclear tract from the Air Force, which has not the conventional AGM-158 Joint Air- LRSO weapon also ended abruptly. yet been offered. The service expected to- Surface Stand-off Missile, including The Air Force simply decided to con- to close out Lockheed’s risk-reduction versions with extended range. At the tinue with Raytheon as the sole-source contract on the LRSO by the end of same time, the Air Force is consider- supplier for the secretive LRSO mis- April. The AFNWC also is considering ing proposals for developing a hyper- sile, even though two years remained options to accelerate the start of the sonic cruise missile with a conven- on a 54-month risk-reduction contract engineering and manufacturing devel- tional warhead. The service has never awarded to both bidders in August 2017. opment (EMD) phase with Raytheon. clarified if the LRSO requirement calls Despite billions of dollars at stake, Despite the absence of a competitive for a missile with subsonic, supersonic the Air Force’s decision was released bidding process for the EMD contract, or hypersonic speed. c

46 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MAY 4-17, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST DEFENSE

Raytheon’s LRSO Prize Completes the Air Force still believes an LRSO can Airbus Automated Refueling a First optimize the rate of aerial refueling, be developed on time and affordably. potentially allowing more aircraft to Nuclear Modernization Supplier Roles “I am confident in the program of- Step Toward Autonomous Capability be refueled in a sortie than with a hu- fice’s ability to execute the next phase’s man boom operator. > RAYTHEON IS NOW THE SOLE SOURCE FOR THE $4.5 BILLION MISSILE contract negotiations in a single-source > FIRST FULLY AUTOMATIC REFUELING TOOK PLACE WITH AN F-16 On the MRTT, the ARO operates environment and maintain schedule RECEIVER IN APRIL the refueling systems from a position > LRSO PRESERVES THE B-52 NUCLEAR ROLE AFTER 2030 and affordability,” Morris said. in the cockpit behind the pilots, where The end of the LRSO competition > SINGAPORE SET TO BE FIRST CUSTOMER FOR A3R TECHNOLOGY they are presented with a camera view Steve Trimble Washington comes less than seven months before underneath the aircraft’s rear. That a presidential election with potentially Tony Osborne London setup is similar to Boeing’s KC-46. aytheon now stands as the sole on April 17 without any fanfare on the dramatic implications for the Penta- With the A3R, the ARO monitors the remaining bidder for the Long- website of Global Strike Command, and gon’s nuclear modernization plan. irbus says aerial refueling oper- any modifications required for them. refueling process but has to set the RRange Standoff (LRSO) pro- it went unnoticed there until April 20. Former Vice President Joe Biden, the ations could be performed with Image processing determines the receiver type and fuel amount re - gram, a $4.5 billion cruise missile that The Air Force Nuclear Weapons presumptive Democratic Party pres- Ajust two crewmembers on the location of the receiver’s receptacle, quested. Airbus is looking to automate replaces the AGM-86B and preserves Center (AFNWC), which manages the idential nominee, was serving in the flight deck by the end of the decade. but this has to be done with accuracy, these processes with the A4R, too. a nuclear strike role for a portion of program, later clarified the key events administration of former President As the company refines its auto - notes Cabrera. “The alignment for a “Among the different tasks in refuel- the B-52 fleet beyond 2030. that led up to the sole-source decision in Barack Obama when the LRSO and matic aerial refueling (A3R) for its successful connection is as tight as a ing an aircraft, the most complex is the Competitive bidding processes favor of Raytheon. The Air Force com- GBSD acquisition programs launched, A330 Multi-Role Tanker Transport few centimeters,” he says. connection with the receiver. But when sometimes do not end as planned, and pleted a preliminary design review for but his support for both is not assured. (MRTT), with the aim of certifying the The geometry of the receptacle is you can do it, then you have opened the that sentiment has proved true for the Lockheed’s LRSO concept in October An essay by Biden published in technology as ready for operations in also important, as it helps determine door to the A3R,” says Cabrera. U.S. Air Force’s nuclear modernization 2019, followed by Raytheon’s version the March/April issue of the journal 2021, it is already looking toward the the safe separation distance the boom “The automation of any process al- portfolio. The bidding war between in November. A traditional downselect Foreign Affairs states that he believes next step. An autonomous automat- maintains before contact. ways save costs and reduces risks; this Northrop Grumman and the tandem of process did not follow, but the Air Force the U.S. nuclear arsenal should be used ic aerial refueling (A4R) capability Motion rates and receiver size are is evident in any sector,” he says. “But Boeing and Lockheed Martin to build decided to end the competition. only for deterrence and retaliation. If would remove the need for an aerial other factors, as a small fighter has a we have to implement it progressively the B-21 ended formally in 2015 with a Maj. Gen. Shaun Morris, the AFNWC elected, that statement suggests Biden refueling officer (ARO), or boom oper- different influence on the tanker com- and step by step according to the ma- could become the first U.S. president ator, from the aircraft. AIRBUS DEFENSE AND SPACE turity of the solution.” to declare a “no first use” policy for nu- First, Airbus has Ultimately, the A4R clear weapons. Byron Callan, an ana- already taken several is “the target in aerial lyst for Capital Alpha Partners, said in steps to finalize devel- refueling, but we have an April 22 note to investors that such opment of the A3R ca- to achieve A3R first,” a policy would continue to value the pability. In mid-April, he adds. role of submarine-launched missiles the company confirmed The Republic of Sin- as a deterrent and retaliatory strike it had carried out the gapore Air Force will be option but would make the GBSD and first fully automatic the launch customer for LRSO options vulnerable. A3R operation with its the A3R capabilities. The The Air Force launched the LRSO A310 Aerial Refueling service is supporting the program in 2010 to replace 375 AGM- Boom System testbed flight-test campaign with 86Bs that entered service after 1982. and a Portuguese Air one of its newly deliv-

AIRMAN 1ST CLASS JACOB B. WRIGHTSMAN/U.S. AIR FORCE WRIGHTSMAN/U.S. B. AIRMAN 1ST CLASS JACOB With the Boeing-designed cruise mis- Force F-16 acting as a ered Enhanced MRTTs. siles scheduled to be retired due to ob- receiver. The A3R sys- The Royal Australian solescence in 2030, the B-52 will need a tem flies the refueling The A3R system’s image processing function looks for receiver Air Force has also sup- In November 2019, an Air Force ground crew demilitarized the last AGM-86C new missile with standoff range to per- boom and positions it attributes so that the boom can be safely prepositioned, ready to ported the project in form the nuclear strike mission. The over the receiver air- previous flight trials. conventional air-launched cruise missile. The nuclear version will continue in make the connection with the receptacle. service until replaced by the LRSO in 2030. Air Force’s requirements for LRSO in- craft’s receptacle until The capability is also clude the capacity to navigate to a tar- it selects the optimum moment to ex- pared to a receiver of similar size or attracting considerable interest in Eu- $21.4 billion contract award to Northrop commander, said the terms of the get in a GPS-denied environment and tend the telescopic boom and achieve larger such as on a tanker or airlifter. rope, where the A3R technology is seen Grumman. However, the competition for risk-reduction phase “enabled us to the ability to survive against a complex, the connection that allows the fuel “This is nothing new in the way that as one way of overcoming shortfalls in the Ground-Based Strategic Deterrent select a high-confidence design at integrated air defense system. transfer to begin. we currently qualify a tanker and a re- European aerial refueling capacity. (GBSD) program has been less fierce. this point in the acquisition process.” Raytheon’s status as the LRSO The system uses a combination of ceiver. The differences are that this was Last year, the European Defense Agen- Activity fizzled when Boeing decided to Meanwhile, Lockheed continues to of- sole-source supplier also offers the sensors, with image processing the previously based on human perception cy called on members to begin develop- withdraw last year, leaving Northrop as fer its expertise on sensors and nuclear Air Force a new industrial option for main contributor, Juan Cabrera, head and now it is done by analytics and pre- ing requirements for A3R capabilities the sole bidder for an $80 billion con- certification for the LRSO, but formal- a future conventional cruise missile. of testing and autonomous refueling cise data,” says Cabrera. to help reduce life-cycle costs, techni- tract expected to be signed shortly. izing that role will require a new con- Lockheed Martin already supplies at Airbus defense and space in Spain, Using data collected for new receiv- cal and operational risk and human The competition for the nuclear tract from the Air Force, which has not the conventional AGM-158 Joint Air- tells Aviation Week. er aircraft, the A3R system configures workload. Cabrera says Airbus was LRSO weapon also ended abruptly. yet been offered. The service expected to- Surface Stand-off Missile, including “The system is able to conduct itself to adapt for the new types. participating in such forums and had The Air Force simply decided to con- to close out Lockheed’s risk-reduction versions with extended range. At the everything: boom positioning and Development of Airbus’ A3R system already been involved in several assess- tinue with Raytheon as the sole-source contract on the LRSO by the end of same time, the Air Force is consider- insertion in the receiver receptacle, began in 2015. The first dry contacts— ments of A3R’s concept of operations. supplier for the secretive LRSO mis- April. The AFNWC also is considering ing proposals for developing a hyper- fuel transference and separation af- without fuel—were performed in 2017, The A3R technology will primar- sile, even though two years remained options to accelerate the start of the sonic cruise missile with a conven- ter the disconnection,” he says. “It can again with Portuguese F-16s. Dry-con- ily apply to the Enhanced version of on a 54-month risk-reduction contract engineering and manufacturing devel- tional warhead. The service has never also safely separate the boom in case tact trials were also performed with an the MRTT, as the model features an awarded to both bidders in August 2017. opment (EMD) phase with Raytheon. clarified if the LRSO requirement calls the receiver maneuvers erratically.” A330 MRTT a year later. updated vision system, but this can Despite billions of dollars at stake, Despite the absence of a competitive for a missile with subsonic, supersonic The A3R has been developed to work Airbus believes the automated re- be retrofitted to earlier models of the the Air Force’s decision was released bidding process for the EMD contract, or hypersonic speed. c with any receiver aircraft, without fueling process will be safer and will MRTT, Cabrera notes. c

46 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MAY 4-17, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MAY 4-17, 2020 47 DEFENSE GERMAN REJUVENATION

Tony Osborne London

EUROPE’S RICHEST COUNTRY IS COMMITTING Yet there is an urgent need to modernize: The capabil- to modernizing its armed forces, aiming to gradually ity gap for an airborne signals-intelligence capability is meet NATO’s spending target of 2% of gross domes- now a decade old, and plans to replace ground-based tic product on defense as it pushes toward becoming air defenses are closing in on a ﬁ fth year of negotia- one of the pillars of European security . But Germany is tion. Nonetheless, progress is being made with plans to struggling to spend the cash. Cumbersome procure- change out front-line combat aircraft, airlifters, tankers ment policies demanding that all deals are approved and helicopters. There are even plans to introduce new by parliament means programs are often subject to electronic warfare platforms. Here is a look at some of lengthy delays. Meanwhile, materiel agencies are the major aerospace procurements and programs in short-sta ed and constrained by stringent red tape. the German armed forces.

DETERRENT DILEMMA Critics argue that replacing Germany’s Panavia Tornado eet with a split buy of Euro ghters and U.S.-sourced Boeing F/A-18 Super Hornets is a com- N SBRNEAS promise too far. Mired in politics, German ministers ERAN DEFENSE INISR have had to tiptoe through a mine eld of demands—Luftwa e commanders calling for QUADRIGA CONUNDRUM an American type in the inventory, Unlike the other Euro ghter French demands that the F-35 not be chosen and ap- partner nations, Germany wants peals from workers’ unions for a Euro ghter selection to retire its Tranche 1 eet and to protect industry. Berlin is hoping a proposal formally replace it with a batch of up to announced on April 22 to purchase up to 55 Euro ghters 38 Euro ghters tted with the and 45 Super Hornets, including 15 electronic warfare Captor-E active, electronically EA-18G Growlers, will please its skeptics. The intended scanned array (AESA) radar. Airbus had hoped to secure Euro ghter buy could also help to ensure Germany’s a contract for the so-called Project Quadriga eet in the place in a Future Combat Air System with France, while rst months of 2020, but the order has been politically the Super Hornet will help maintain Germany’s role in linked with the Tornado replacement. Parliamentary ap- NATO’s deterrence mission with free-fall nuclear weap- proval of the Quadriga aircraft is expected this year. Unlike ons. However, the acquisition still has to obtain parlia- Tranche 2 and 3 Euro ghters, the Tranche 1 aircraft cannot mentary approval. This is not expected until 2022, after be upgraded with an AESA radar without signi cant cost Germany’s next general election. since they lack the cooling, electrical and computing

BACRUND AR E IAES

4 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MAY 4-17, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST DEFENSE HEAVYLIFT HELO FACEOFF A decision on Germany’s long-awaited $3-4 billion STH heavy helicopter procurement is still pending. GERMAN REJUVENATION The competition to replace the Luftwa e’s locally

N SBRNEAS assembled Sikorsky CH-53G Sea Stallions remains Tony Osborne London a face-o between Boeing’s CH-47 Chinook and Sikorsky’s CH-53K King Stallion. Both OEMs EUROPE’S RICHEST COUNTRY IS COMMITTING Yet there is an urgent need to modernize: The capabil- responded to Berlin’s STH tender in January for STRENGTHENING AIRLIFT to modernizing its armed forces, aiming to gradually ity gap for an airborne signals-intelligence capability is 44-60 helicopters. A selection is expected during Germany’s airlift capacity is being transformed 2020, followed by a contract award in 2021 after meet NATO’s spending target of 2% of gross domes- now a decade old, and plans to replace ground-based with the arrival of the Airbus A400M, allowing the approvals from the German parliament. First tic product on defense as it pushes toward becoming air defenses are closing in on a ﬁ fth year of negotia- tired Transall C-160s to be retired. Despite the Airbus deliveries are expected in 2024, and all the rotorcraft tion. Nonetheless, progress is being made with plans to one of the pillars of European security . But Germany is aircraft’s troubled early career in the Luftwa e—a could be delivered by the end of 2032. struggling to spend the cash. Cumbersome procure- change out front-line combat aircraft, airlifters, tankers result of reliability issues—the type is nding its ment policies demanding that all deals are approved and helicopters. There are even plans to introduce new feet, supporting aerial refueling missions in Iraq by parliament means programs are often subject to electronic warfare platforms. Here is a look at some of and Syria and medical aid operations during the lengthy delays. Meanwhile, materiel agencies are the major aerospace procurements and programs in COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic. The Luftwa e has 32 A400Ms and will take delivery of 53 more, with short-sta ed and constrained by stringent red tape. the German armed forces. the last arriving in 2026. The service is also purchas- ERAN DEFENSE INISR ing six Lockheed Martin C-130J Hercules to form a joint tactical airlift squadron with the French Air DETERRENT DILEMMA Force. The type will be used for some limited tactical air transport duties that the A400M is deemed too Critics argue that replacing large to handle. Germany hopes to take delivery of Germany’s Panavia Tornado eet its rst C-130J in 2021. Three of the Hercules will be with a split buy of Euro ghters and KC-130J tanker variants. U.S.-sourced Boeing F/A-18 BUILDING TANKER CAPACITY Super Hornets is a com- N SBRNEAS promise too far. Mired in RE UARDIA politics, German ministers ERAN DEFENSE INISR have had to tiptoe through a mine eld of demands—Luftwa e commanders calling for QUADRIGA CONUNDRUM an American type in the inventory, Unlike the other Euro ghter French demands that the F-35 not be chosen and ap- partner nations, Germany wants power required for the sensor. peals from workers’ unions for a Euro ghter selection to retire its Tranche 1 eet and A separate program to install the to protect industry. Berlin is hoping a proposal formally replace it with a batch of up to AESA radar on the Luftwa e’s announced on April 22 to purchase up to 55 Euro ghters 38 Euro ghters tted with the Tranche 2 and 3 Euro ghters was Germany’s entry into the Netherlands-led Multinational Multirole Tanker and 45 Super Hornets, including 15 electronic warfare Captor-E active, electronically also due to be contracted for Transport Fleet (MMF) in September 2017 allowed the pooled eet of EA-18G Growlers, will please its skeptics. The intended scanned array (AESA) radar. Airbus had hoped to secure during early 2020, but the time Airbus A330 Multirole Tanker Transports (MRTT) to grow by ve aircraft. Euro ghter buy could also help to ensure Germany’s a contract for the so-called Project Quadriga eet in the frame has not yet been nalized. Participation in the MMF signi cantly bolsters the air force’s air-to-air place in a Future Combat Air System with France, while rst months of 2020, but the order has been politically Spain and the UK have adapted refueling capacity, which has been reliant on four Airbus A310 MRTTs with the Super Hornet will help maintain Germany’s role in linked with the Tornado replacement. Parliamentary ap- their Tranche 1 eets for the air two underwing hose-drogue units. This capability has also been expanded by NATO’s deterrence mission with free-fall nuclear weap- proval of the Quadriga aircraft is expected this year. Unlike defense mission, leaving only pod-equipped Airbus A400Ms, one of which has been supporting coalition ons. However, the acquisition still has to obtain parlia- Tranche 2 and 3 Euro ghters, the Tranche 1 aircraft cannot Tranche 2 and 3 aircraft to perform operations over Iraq and Syria. The rst MMF A330 is due to be delivered mentary approval. This is not expected until 2022, after be upgraded with an AESA radar without signi cant cost the swing-role mission with air-to- to the Netherlands in May; the third MMF aircraft will initially be based in Germany’s next general election. since they lack the cooling, electrical and computing ground weapons. Germany and is expected to arrive toward year-end.

BACRUND AR E IAES

4 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MAY 4-17, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MAY 4-17, 2020 4 DEFENSE

IAI

AIRBUS EICPERS

EYES IN THE SKY THE BACKBONE OF THE GERMAN NAVY Germany will be one of the recipients of the pan-European EuroDrone unmanned aircraft system. The Having been reliant on Westland-built Sea Kings aircraft has been built according to Germany’s civil airspace and Lynx helicopters, Germany’s naval air service has requirements, including the need to be twin-engine. In chosen the NH90 to replace both platforms. The move the interim, the German government will lease ve Israeli allows the navy to maintain commonality for training Aerospace Industries Heron TP UAS through a service and logistics with three of its neighbors operating the contract worth €720 million ($780 million) signed in June type —Belgium, France and the Netherlands. The NH90s 2018 with Airbus. The program is currently in a setup phase, will be operated in two versions. The 18 Sea Lions, the with the operational phase expected to begin this summer, rst of which have already been delivered, are replacing according to Airbus statements. the Sea King and will be tasked with search and rescue and the naval transport mission. The 31 Sea Tigers, re- SIGINT REQUIREMENT placing the Lynxes, will perform the anti-submarine and anti-surface warfare missions while operating from the back of the navy’s surface combatants . The Sea Tiger purchase is subject to German parliamentary approval, but there is hope a contract can be signed in 2020 for NRRP RUAN deliveries by 2022.

German Split-Buy Fighter Plans Face The proposals finally revealed on April 22 call for the purchase of 93 Political and Industrial Complications Euroﬁ ghters and 45 Super Hornets, 15 of which will be electronic warfare EA-18G Growlers. SUPER HORNET WOULD PERFORM DCA NUCLEAR MISSION > The numbers are partly political AIRBUS CALLS FOR “REGULATED COMPROMISE” TO ACCELERATE window dressing. Up to 38 of the Euro- > ﬁ ghters are envisaged for an entirely EUROFIGHTER CONTRACT

Tony Osborne London

ermany’s decision to pur- N SBRNEAS chase a fleet of U.S.- Gmade Boeing F/A-18 Super Hornets has rattled its industry Not so fast: Germany’s Super Hornet and fragile governing coalition. try. It is no surprise, then, that those procurement proposal still needs to Replacing the German Air Force’s approvals have been kicked deep into be approved by the Bundestag. (Luftwaffe) aging Panavia Tornado the long grass. fl eet was never going to be easy: The Germany’s parliament, the Bunde- di erent requirement—the Quadriga subject is fraught with questions stag, will not have a fi nal say until 2022, program— that will replace Tranche 1 about the country’s role in nuclear more likely 2023. But a contract is far standard Eurofi ghters, which are pro- deterrence, complicated by industrial from certain even then, as a new ad- hibitively expensive to upgrade with relations, military capability compro- ministration will be in charge. active, electronically scanned array ra- mises and questions about the future “Knowing the established, parlia- dars and air-to-ground weaponry. That of European aerospace. mentary processes, we are only at the leaves up to 55 Typhoons to cover the Airbus says the proposals would, beginning of a procurement that will Tornado replacement requirement. if approved, lead to “massive, lasting take years,” says Defense Minister The deciding factor in the Super harm” to the German defense indus- Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer . Hornet decision was the need for a

AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MAY 4-17, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST DEFENSE ARMY LIGHT UTILITY REPLACING THE PATRIOT Following the successful introduction of Airbus’ H145M Light Utility Helicopter It has been nearly ve years

IAI to support German special forces, and more recently the H145 commercial since Germany selected the Medium

AIRBUS EICPERS model taking on the army’s search-and-rescue mission, army commanders are Extended Air Defense System (MEADS) mulling a buy of 60 H145Ms for training, liaison and light attack needs, regaining for its TLVS ground-based air defense a capability lost with the 2016 retirement of the MBB-Bolkow Bo 105. The H145 requirement, and a contract decision could also replace the army’s EC135 training helicopters and be used as a seems no closer. The TLVS GmbH con- EYES IN THE SKY companion in training front-line regiments, allowing pilots to keep up their hours sortium of Lockheed Martin and MBDA THE BACKBONE OF THE GERMAN NAVY Germany will be one of the recipients of the in a platform less expensive to operate than the NH90 or Tiger attack helicopter. submitted a nal proposal to Germa- pan-European EuroDrone unmanned aircraft system. The ny’s defense materiel agency in June Having been reliant on Westland-built Sea Kings aircraft has been built according to Germany’s civil airspace and Lynx helicopters, Germany’s naval air service has 2019 and still awaits its approval. The requirements, including the need to be twin-engine. In chosen the NH90 to replace both platforms. The move contract could be worth up to $8 bil- the interim, the German government will lease ve Israeli allows the navy to maintain commonality for training lion. A proposed TLVS system would of- Aerospace Industries Heron TP UAS through a service and logistics with three of its neighbors operating the fer Germany’s early-model Patriot mis- contract worth €720 million ($780 million) signed in June siles with a combination of the MEADS type —Belgium, France and the Netherlands. The NH90s AIRBUS EICPERS 2018 with Airbus. The program is currently in a setup phase, will be operated in two versions. The 18 Sea Lions, the and Diehl’s IRIS-T surface-launched with the operational phase expected to begin this summer, rst of which have already been delivered, are replacing short-range missile system with sur- according to Airbus statements. the Sea King and will be tasked with search and rescue veillance provided by a 360-deg. radar. and the naval transport mission. The 31 Sea Tigers, re- The Euro Hawk debacle continues to reverberate through the German SIGINT REQUIREMENT placing the Lynxes, will perform the anti-submarine and defense ministry as it struggles to ll its signals-intelligence (sigint) capability anti-surface warfare missions while operating from the gap. Plans to use the Northrop Grumman MQ-4 Triton as an alternative to back of the navy’s surface combatants . The Sea Tiger the Global Hawk were abandoned in January, prompting commanders to look purchase is subject to German parliamentary approval, instead at using manned business jets to ful ll the requirement now known but there is hope a contract can be signed in 2020 for as the Pegasus. Berlin is hoping the transition to business jets will enable the NRRP RUAN capability to enter service by 2025 to meet NATO requirements.

deliveries by 2022. BDA

German Split-Buy Fighter Plans Face The proposals finally revealed on platform to perform the controversial think it should remain so in the future.” ties for the Eurofi ghter, but noted that April 22 call for the purchase of 93 dual-capable aircraft (DCA) mission, The 15 Growlers could help Ger- such developments would take time. Political and Industrial Complications Eurofi ghters and 45 Super Hornets, supporting NATO’s nuclear deterrent many develop an airborne electron- A less-than-impressed Airbus has 15 of which will be electronic warfare with U.S. dual-key free-fall B61 weap- ic attack (AEA) capability to meet a called on Kramp-Karrenbauer to EA-18G Growlers. ons based at Buchel. standing NATO commitment, called compromise and make fixed orders SUPER HORNET WOULD PERFORM DCA NUCLEAR MISSION > The numbers are partly political The Tornado has performed this LuWES, but this has not been con- for all 93 Eurofi ghters (10-15 are op- AIRBUS CALLS FOR “REGULATED COMPROMISE” TO ACCELERATE window dressing. Up to 38 of the Euro- mission for three decades, the only fi rmed by Berlin. tional), bring forward contracting for > fi ghters are envisaged for an entirely European type wired and certified The F/A-18s are seen as a “tech- all the aircraft rather than just those EUROFIGHTER CONTRACT for it. But Berlin has long had doubts nology bridge,” an interim capability being purchased under the Quadriga whether the Eurofi ghter could have, or paving the way for development of program to this year and accelerate Tony Osborne London would have, been certifi ed by the U.S. the FCAS and more capabilities for funding for the Eurofighter’s Long- to carry the B61. The U.S. is currently the Eurofi ghter. If the Tornado is re- Term Evolution plan. Such a “clearly ermany’s decision to pur- N SBRNEAS in the process of modernizing the B61 tired, the Luftwa e will “lose capabil- regulated compromise” says Airbus, chase a fleet of U.S.- arsenal with the more capable B61-12 ities that are currently only offered would ensure the continuity of the Gmade Boeing F/A-18 and beginning the long and costly pro- by American manufacturers,” says supply chain, maintain production and Super Hornets has rattled its industry Not so fast: Germany’s Super Hornet cess of certifying aircraft to carry it. Kramp-Karrenbauer. It is unclear development capacity and ensure that and fragile governing coalition. try. It is no surprise, then, that those procurement proposal still needs to Certifying the Eurofi ghter would have whether this interim status will infl u- the Eurofi ghter remains competitive Replacing the German Air Force’s approvals have been kicked deep into been low on the list of priorities. The ence how the Super Hornets are pro- in export campaigns. The aircraft con- be approved by the Bundestag. (Luftwaffe) aging Panavia Tornado the long grass. Super Hornet is not certified either, cured. Leasing could be one option, tinues to be marketed in Finland and fl eet was never going to be easy: The Germany’s parliament, the Bunde- di erent requirement—the Quadriga but given that the predecessor legacy but officials would not comment on Switzerland. subject is fraught with questions stag, will not have a fi nal say until 2022, program— that will replace Tranche 1 Hornets were, it should be a formality. that subject. The company also called for an about the country’s role in nuclear more likely 2023. But a contract is far standard Eurofi ghters, which are pro- “Nuclear participation and the nu- Airbus has previously proposed a F/A-18 fleet to be supported at the deterrence, complicated by industrial from certain even then, as a new ad- hibitively expensive to upgrade with clear protective shield are part of the similar AEA capability for the Euro- German Military Air Systems Center relations, military capability compro- ministration will be in charge. active, electronically scanned array ra- architecture of our security policy,” says fi ghter using a podded system, called in Manching, where front-line combat mises and questions about the future “Knowing the established, parlia- dars and air-to-ground weaponry. That Kramp-Karrenbauer . “That may sound the Typhoon ECR. Those proposals aircraft are maintained by Airbus and of European aerospace. mentary processes, we are only at the leaves up to 55 Typhoons to cover the old-fashioned to some, but to keep have seemingly not been ignored: military personnel. Airbus says the proposals would, beginning of a procurement that will Tornado replacement requirement. promises made is a high value of Ger- Kramp-Karrenbauer says Berlin Germany wants to begin replacing if approved, lead to “massive, lasting take years,” says Defense Minister The deciding factor in the Super man security policy for me. This also would “advocate” the development of the 85-strong Tornado fl eet in 2025, harm” to the German defense indus- Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer . Hornet decision was the need for a includes nuclear participation, and I electronic warfare and AEA capabili- with it phased out in 2030. c

AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MAY 4-17, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MAY 4-17, 2020 DEFENSE

Japan Boosts Detection by separately. But the IRST needs satisfactory atmospheric conditions, while radar operation must not expose the Fusing Radar and IRST carrying aircraft to detection and attack. The agency has not said whether the system also > IRST CHECKS TARGETS FROM RADAR ACCEPTING worked in the other direction, with the radar verifying WEAK SIGNALS the IRST detections achieved from weak signals. This seems to be a likely requirement, since a stealth aircraft’s > TESTS VERIFY PASSIVE-RADAR PRINCIPLES infrared emissions may well be detected before its radar reflections can be. If one sensor made a detection in Bradley Perrett Beijing scanning, it could cue the other to stare in the target’s di - rection until good data were acquired—or nothing found. he Japanese defense ministry has reported a 20% The tests also validated theoretical principles for sensor improvement in detection range with a fused sensor operation as a passive radar. The term usually refers to Tsystem for use against stealth aircraft and ballistic a mode in which a radar detects a target’s reflections of and cruise missiles. radiofrequency energy that happens to be present, such as The infrared and radar system is evidently intended for a television transmissions. Outlining the program in 2012, the contemplated long-endurance surveillance aircraft, though ministry described this function as using emissions from no such development program is in published planning. radars, which seems to suggest a cooperating source. The technology is surely also a candidate for Japan’s Next Accuracy in passive-radar mode can be improved by

Generation Fighter, espe- JAPANESE DEFENSE MINISTRY cially since the Lockheed Martin F-35 Lightning already has such composite functionality. To test the technology, Japan has fitted a Lock- heed Martin UP-3C trials aircraft with a large infrared-search-and-track turret (IRST) in a dorsal position and a ven trally mounted side-looking radar. The ministry’s Ac- quisition, Technology and Logistics Agency (ATLA) is running the program from the fiscal year beginning April The UP-3C trials aircraft with the dorsal IRST and 2012 to fiscal 2021. Its name can be translated as the Com- ventral radar. posite Radio and Light Sensor System. ATLA says the system’s IRST operates in medium wave- using multiple ground stations, ATLA says, evidently re- lengths to search for ballistic missiles and in long wave - ferring to the transmitters. The agency stresses that this lengths to track them and to search for and track stealth was only a theoretical evaluation. It has not elaborated. aircraft. The radar uses the S band, has gallium-nitride The IRST showed very good results against Japanese technology and faces to the left of the UP-3C. rockets used in the trials, ATLA says. The 2012 program Reporting on testing up to March 2019, the agency de - outline suggested that the turret would be derived from scribes a specific objective of seeing whether the system Airboss, a Fujitsu IRST that was used to detect a ballistic could detect targets farther away by making the radar missile target off Hawaii in December 2007. One change accept fainter signals—which also has meant allowing it was addition of long-wavelength capability for better de- to generate more false targets. The IRST was used to tection of ballistic missile warheads; the sensor formerly check detections and reject false ones. This idea has been operated in only medium wavelengths. applied in other countries. The fused sensor system used the track-before-detect ATLA says the accepted signal-to-noise ratio was re - technique, ATLA says. This is a process in which imaginary duced by 3 dB—presumably from the normal operating tracks are projected ahead of a target to work out whether level of the radar, which was not named. its apparent movement is plausible. The evaluations confirmed that targets could be de - Japan has three aircraft types that could serve as tected at 20% greater ranges, ATLA says. For a 3-dB re - long-endurance carriers of such a system: the Kawasaki duction in accepted signal-to-noise ratio, that is approx- Heavy Industries C-2 airlifter and P-1 maritime patroller imately the theoretical result from the radar equation, and the Mitsubishi Aircraft SpaceJet regional jet. Since the a standard formula that relates detection range with P-1 has a fuselage similar in size to that of the UP-3C used various factors. for the trials, it should be a likely candidate—although it A further advantage of fusing such sensors is that ra- would be a new type for the Japan Air Self-Defense Force, dars are precise in range but not in direction, whereas which would presumably field the operational system. An IRSTs have the opposite characteristics. Together, they unmanned aircraft could be preferred. can locate a target far more precisely than either can do The NGF is supposed to enter service in the mid-2030s. c

52 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MAY 4-17, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST DEFENSE

Japan Boosts Detection by separately. But the IRST needs satisfactory atmospheric Norwegian-U.S. Ramjet Nammo’s ramjet technology has wide conditions, while radar operation must not expose the applications, including air-to-air Fusing Radar and IRST carrying aircraft to detection and attack. Tie-Up Could Lead to missiles, as this concept for a ramjet The agency has not said whether the system also Amraam suggests. > IRST CHECKS TARGETS FROM RADAR ACCEPTING worked in the other direction, with the radar verifying More-Lethal Missiles WEAK SIGNALS the IRST detections achieved from weak signals. This F-35. With Norway’s limited defense seems to be a likely requirement, since a stealth aircraft’s budget, few avenues were open for > TESTS VERIFY PASSIVE-RADAR PRINCIPLES infrared emissions may well be detected before its ra- Nammo’s ramjet technology: either dar reflections can be. If one sensor made a detection in Europe or the U.S. Bradley Perrett Beijing scanning, it could cue the other to stare in the target’s di - Europe, through MBDA, has already rection until good data were acquired—or nothing found. taken its first steps into ramjet pro- he Japanese defense ministry has reported a 20% The tests also validated theoretical principles for sensor pulsion: A Bayern Chemie-developed improvement in detection range with a fused sensor operation as a passive radar. The term usually refers to ramjet powers the Meteor beyond- Tsystem for use against stealth aircraft and ballistic a mode in which a radar detects a target’s reflections of > UNGUIDED PROTOTYPE RAMJET visual-range air-to-air missile. and cruise missiles. radiofrequency energy that happens to be present, such as MISSILE TO FLY IN 2021 THOR-ER is receiving equal fund- The infrared and radar system is evidently intended for a television transmissions. Outlining the program in 2012, the ing from Norway and the U.S., but contemplated long-endurance surveillance aircraft, though ministry described this function as using emissions from > NAMMO AND CHINA LAKE ENGINEERS the amounts are not being disclosed no such development program is in published planning. radars, which seems to suggest a cooperating source. WORKING ON THOR-ER SINCE 2019 for now. The technology is surely also a candidate for Japan’s Next Accuracy in passive-radar mode can be improved by The new disclosure comes weeks

Generation Fighter, espe- JAPANESE DEFENSE MINISTRY after Aviation Week revealed that the cially since the Lockheed NAMMO CONCEPT U.S. Air Force Research Laboratory London Martin F-35 Lightning al- Tony Osborne and the UK’s Defense Science and ready has such composite orway and the U.S. are partner- be applicable to both air- and ground- Technology Laboratory were collab- functionality. ing on solid-fuel ramjet technol- launched systems. orating on a weapon concept called To test the technology, Nogies to improve the lethality Last year, Nammo revealed it was Thresher (Tactical High-Speed, Re- Japan has fitted a Lock- and range of future missiles. working on scalable ramjet technology, sponsive and Highly Efficient Round) heed Martin UP-3C trials The bilateral Tactical High-speed boosting missile range and speed. (AW&ST April 6-19, p. 21). aircraft with a large in- Offensive Ramjet for Extended Range Nammo CEO Morten Brandtzaeg “This ramjet-technology provides frared-search-and-track (THOR-ER) program, revealed on said at the time that the technology a game-changing capability for our turret (IRST) in a dorsal April 20, appears to represent renewed had “the potential to disrupt the whole armed forces. It also brings bilater- position and a ven trally interest from the U.S. in investigating missile and artillery sector as well as al cooperation to a whole new level,” mounted side-looking ramjet propulsion for missiles, in par- NATO air defense.” Tiller says. radar. The ministry’s Ac- allel with the Defense Department’s In a conventional rocket motor, “To stay ahead of potential adver- quisition, Technology and accelerated development of hypersonic oxygen can account for up to 80% of saries, allies need to cooperate to bet- Logistics Agency (ATLA) weapons in response to Chinese and the fuel weight, but the ramjet instead ter utilize our collective resources, be is running the program from the fiscal year beginning April The UP-3C trials aircraft with the dorsal IRST and Russian advances in the field. uses oxygen from the outside air. By it innovative talent, finances or pro- 2012 to fiscal 2021. Its name can be translated as the Com- ventral radar. THOR-ER is an Allied Prototyping replacing that oxygen with propellant, duction capabilities,” he adds. posite Radio and Light Sensor System. Initiative that will build on the work capacity can be increased 3-5 times. China Lake’s involvement may hint ATLA says the system’s IRST operates in medium wave- using multiple ground stations, ATLA says, evidently re- already carried out by the Norwegian The technology, the company said, at naval applications such as a high- lengths to search for ballistic missiles and in long wave - ferring to the transmitters. The agency stresses that this Defense Research Establishment, had the potential to boost weapon speed anti-ship missile, perhaps a lengths to track them and to search for and track stealth was only a theoretical evaluation. It has not elaborated. state-owned armaments company ranges 300-500% and transform the response to the Russian P-800 Oniks aircraft. The radar uses the S band, has gallium-nitride The IRST showed very good results against Japanese Nammo and the U.S. Naval Air War- performance of missiles without hav- anti-ship cruise missile, and fill in the technology and faces to the left of the UP-3C. rockets used in the trials, ATLA says. The 2012 program fare Center at China Lake, California. ing to increase the size of the weapon performance gap between the subson- Reporting on testing up to March 2019, the agency de - outline suggested that the turret would be derived from The two countries will codevelop or make extreme adjustments to form ic Harpoon and the hypersonic SM-6 scribes a specific objective of seeing whether the system Airboss, a Fujitsu IRST that was used to detect a ballistic ramjet missile flight demonstrators, factors. Sustained ramjet propulsion Block-1B and Conventional Prompt could detect targets farther away by making the radar missile target off Hawaii in December 2007. One change and the project could lead to “closer can power a missile to speeds of Strike systems. The Navy was also accept fainter signals—which also has meant allowing it was addition of long-wavelength capability for better de- defense industrial base cooperation,” Mach 5-6. the first U.S. service to adopt a ram- to generate more false targets. The IRST was used to tection of ballistic missile warheads; the sensor formerly says Norwegian National Armaments Nammo has already performed ex- jet-powered missile in the form of the check detections and reject false ones. This idea has been operated in only medium wavelengths. Director Morten Tiller. tensive trials of the propulsion system RIM-8 Talos surface-to-air weapon. applied in other countries. The fused sensor system used the track-before-detect The program calls for developments on a specially built test rig. “There is a rationale for investments ATLA says the accepted signal-to-noise ratio was re - technique, ATLA says. This is a process in which imaginary in solid-fuel ramjet technologies that Engineers from China Lake and in higher-speed weapons able to use duced by 3 dB—presumably from the normal operating tracks are projected ahead of a target to work out whether are affordable, attain high speeds and Nammo have been quietly working on ramjet sustainers to attain speeds in level of the radar, which was not named. its apparent movement is plausible. achieve extended range. THOR-ER since 2019, but Norway and the high-supersonic regime, so Mach The evaluations confirmed that targets could be de - Japan has three aircraft types that could serve as It aims to launch an initial unguided the U.S. have missile development ties 4 plus, or even in the low hypersonic tected at 20% greater ranges, ATLA says. For a 3-dB re - long-endurance carriers of such a system: the Kawasaki prototype in 2021 to verify the capabil- that date back decades. It is Nammo [Mach 5-6 range],” says Douglas Barrie, duction in accepted signal-to-noise ratio, that is approx- Heavy Industries C-2 airlifter and P-1 maritime patroller ities of the propulsion system, Frank rocket motors that power Raytheon’s Senior Fellow for Military Aerospace imately the theoretical result from the radar equation, and the Mitsubishi Aircraft SpaceJet regional jet. Since the Moller, Nammo’s vice president for AIM-120 Amraam and the Evolved at the London-based International In- a standard formula that relates detection range with P-1 has a fuselage similar in size to that of the UP-3C used business development for aerospace SeaSparrow Missile, while Norway’s stitute for Strategic Studies. various factors. for the trials, it should be a likely candidate—although it propulsion, tells Aviation Week. Kongsberg developed the Naval Strike “It also provides the U.S. insight A further advantage of fusing such sensors is that ra- would be a new type for the Japan Air Self-Defense Force, This will be followed by a controlled Missile now being adopted by the U.S. into what a close ally can produce and dars are precise in range but not in direction, whereas which would presumably field the operational system. An missile launch 2-3 years later. Both of Navy for its littoral combat ships, and [the ability] to perhaps project such a IRSTs have the opposite characteristics. Together, they unmanned aircraft could be preferred. the missiles will be ground-launched the Joint Strike Missile is being in- level of capability for some countries can locate a target far more precisely than either can do The NGF is supposed to enter service in the mid-2030s. c but the technology, Moller says, will tegrated onto the Lockheed Martin it may not be as close to,” he adds. c

52 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MAY 4-17, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MAY 4-17, 2020 53 CONNECTED AEROSPACE

Drive to 5G Threatens GPS After FCC Ruling

> LIGADO AND GPS WILL SHARE L-BAND SPECTRUM

> FEDERAL AGENCIES REGISTER STRONG DISSENT

Bill Carey Washington The first improved GPS III satellite built by Lockheed Mar- tin for the U.S. Air Force was launched in December 2018. controversial decision by the Federal Commu- nications Commission (FCC) to approve, “with cies, aerospace companies and trade organizations. A conditions,” Ligado Networks’ deployment of a Five days before the FCC’s vote on Ligado’s license modifi- 5G network using L-band spectrum between 1 and 2 GHz cation applications, a coalition of aviation, satellite communi- exposed deep disagreement within the U.S. government cations and weather information user companies delivered a and failed to alleviate concern over interference with GPS letter to the agency, urging it to reject the proposed network. signals at adjacent frequencies. “The commission and other stakeholders have now de- On April 20, the FCC voted unanimously to approve voted over 9,000 pages of filings, multiple congressional Ligado’s license modification applications to use mobile hearings and countless meetings to addressing one compa- satellite services spectrum to roll out the low-power ter- ny’s spectrum arbitrage effort, and the public has nothing restrial network for 5G cellular and Internet of Things data to show for it,” the letter states. services. Signaled days earlier when FCC Chairman Ajit “[G]iven Ligado’s failure to adequately address the Pai released a draft approval order, the decision ratified harmful interference at the heart of its proposals and the a network proposed a decade earlier by LightSquared, a convoluted and dated record for this proceeding, the most predecessor company, amid a similar controversy. appropriate action for the FCC to take is to deny the Ligado The FCC order allows Ligado to use the 1526-1536 MHz, applications by terminating the associated dockets.” 1627.5-1637.5 MHz and 1646.5-1656.5 MHz frequency bands. The coalition members include the Aerospace Industries The GPS L1 signal is centered at 1575.42 MHz; the newer Association, Iridium Communications, and Southwest Air- L2 signal operates at 1227.60 MHz. lines, Delta Air Lines, JetBlue Airways and FedEx. The seemingly sudden resolution of a protracted and “We have spent billions of dollars and worked for 20 years evolving spectrum licensing proceeding had powerful, po- to perfect a satellite service in satellite spectrum that’s litically bipartisan support, including from U.S. Attorney proved critical in emergencies and disasters, all [assuming] General William Barr, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, that our government would ensure our operations would and U.S. Sen. Mark Warner (D-Va.), a former telecommu- be protected,” tweeted Iridium CEO Matt Desch, who has nications executive. sharply criticized the FCC proceeding. “Ligado’s scattered, “Swift FCC action on spectrum is imperative to allow low bandwidth-impaired spectrum has nothing to do with for the deployment of 5G,” said Barr after the release of the global race to 5G.” Pai’s draft order. “This is essential if we are to keep our On April 10, the National Telecommunications and In- economic and technological leadership and avoid forfeiting formation Administration (NTIA) submitted supplemental it to Communist China.” materials for the FCC to consider; the package followed a Freeing L-band spectrum for use in tandem with the December 2019 correspondence that indicated the NTIA C-band, as Pai has proposed, “would be a major step toward was “unable to recommend the commission’s approval of preserving our economic future,” added Barr, who in the the Ligado applications.” past served as executive vice president and general counsel An agency of the Commerce Department, the NTIA of Verizon Communications. chairs the federal government’s Interdepartment Radio Arrayed in opposition were the bipartisan leadership Advisory Committee (IRAC), which represents the military of the House and Senate Armed Services Committees, services and executive branch agencies, including Barr’s House Transportation Committee Chairman Peter DeFazio Justice Department. (D-Ore.) and a veritable army of federal government agen- The second package from the NTIA included letters

54 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MAY 4-17, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST CONNECTED AEROSPACE

Drive to 5G Threatens GPS LOCKHEED MARTIN from the offices of the secretary and deputy secretary of GPS-reliant helicopter terrain awareness and warning re- defense, both expressing strong opposition to the Ligado ceivers would be unreliable for low-level missions in about After FCC Ruling license modification. A memorandum from Thu Luu, Air 12% of an area served by Ligado Networks, based on the Force executive agent for GPS, advised that modifying or 433 m (1420.6 ft.) minimum spacing of its transmitters. replacing legacy GPS receivers across the military to avoid “I wouldn’t want to be an EMS helicopter pilot landing > LIGADO AND GPS WILL adverse impacts from the new network “even if a solution in unprepared areas and highways in the middle of the SHARE L-BAND SPECTRUM were shown to be feasible, could take on the order of bil- Ligado network,” says Goward, a pilot and retired Coast lions of dollars and delay fielding of modified equipment Guard captain. “I’ve landed on ships that are 210 ft. long > FEDERAL AGENCIES REGISTER needed to respond to rapidly evolving threats by decades.” and stayed overnight, so it’s not unreasonable to think that STRONG DISSENT The Transportation Department, the FAA’s parent or- an EMS helicopter will be within 250 ft. of [Ligado] towers.” ganization and a member of the IRAC, provided Aviation Despite the FCC’s conditions, independent critics say Week a statement by Diana Furchtgott-Roth, deputy assis- the approval ignores the internationally accepted 1 dB tant secretary for research and technology. Standard for radio frequency-based services to protect “There is reason for significant concern that the FCC’s GPS receivers from harmful interference. approval of the Ligado application could lead to widespread The standard sets a 1-dB increase in the noise floor— interruptions in essential GPS-dependent services,” said the noise level that occurs naturally at a receiver—as the Furchtgott-Roth. threshold between tolerable and harmful interference. “GPS is used daily by Americans for all forms of trans- This can be reliably measured by a 1-dB decrease in the portation, both passenger and freight, in cars, trucks, signal carrier-to-noise ratio reported by the receiver, says buses, planes, rail and ships, as well as modern emergen- the GPS Innovation Alliance (GPSIA). cy response systems,” she added. ”GPS is the invisible The alliance planned to review the details of the approval utility we all take for granted, and the Federal govern- but says it was “deeply disappointed” by the FCC’s decision. Bill Carey Washington The first improved GPS III satellite built by Lockheed Mar- ment has a duty to public safety to ensure that GPS FEDERAL COMMUNICATIONS COMMISSION tin for the U.S. Air Force was launched in December 2018. remains accurate and available.” controversial decision by the Federal Commu- The two Democrats on the five-member, Repub - nications Commission (FCC) to approve, “with cies, aerospace companies and trade organizations. lican-majority FCC board, Commissioners Jessica A conditions,” Ligado Networks’ deployment of a Five days before the FCC’s vote on Ligado’s license modifi- Rosenworcel and Geoffrey Starks, in a concurring 5G network using L-band spectrum between 1 and 2 GHz cation applications, a coalition of aviation, satellite communi- statement described the April 20 decision as a close exposed deep disagreement within the U.S. government cations and weather information user companies delivered a call. “In the end, we are compelled to support the ex- and failed to alleviate concern over interference with GPS letter to the agency, urging it to reject the proposed network. pert technical analysis done by the FCC’s engineering signals at adjacent frequencies. “The commission and other stakeholders have now de- staff” in green-lighting the Ligado network, they said. On April 20, the FCC voted unanimously to approve voted over 9,000 pages of filings, multiple congressional But the process “has exposed a fault line in spec- Ligado’s license modification applications to use mobile hearings and countless meetings to addressing one compa- trum decision-making,” the commissioners added. “As satellite services spectrum to roll out the low-power ter- ny’s spectrum arbitrage effort, and the public has nothing we move to the next generation of wireless service, restrial network for 5G cellular and Internet of Things data to show for it,” the letter states. it is imperative that we have an improved interagen- services. Signaled days earlier when FCC Chairman Ajit “[G]iven Ligado’s failure to adequately address the cy system and a stronger whole-of-government ap- Pai released a draft approval order, the decision ratified harmful interference at the heart of its proposals and the proach to our 5G effort.” a network proposed a decade earlier by LightSquared, a convoluted and dated record for this proceeding, the most The FCC’s order mandates that Ligado provide a predecessor company, amid a similar controversy. appropriate action for the FCC to take is to deny the Ligado 23 MHz guard-band with its own licensed spectrum FCC Commissioners (from left) Jessica Rosenworcel, Michael The FCC order allows Ligado to use the 1526-1536 MHz, applications by terminating the associated dockets.” to separate its base station transmissions from near- O’Reilly, Chairman Ajit Pai, Brendan Carr and Geoffrey Starks. 1627.5-1637.5 MHz and 1646.5-1656.5 MHz frequency bands. The coalition members include the Aerospace Industries by operations using radionavigation satellite service The GPS L1 signal is centered at 1575.42 MHz; the newer Association, Iridium Communications, and Southwest Air- space-to-Earth allocations, including GPS. The company “[The] GPSIA has consistently advocated for adoption L2 signal operates at 1227.60 MHz. lines, Delta Air Lines, JetBlue Airways and FedEx. must limit its base station power levels to 9.8 dBW, a re - of the 1 dB Standard as the only reliable mechanism that The seemingly sudden resolution of a protracted and “We have spent billions of dollars and worked for 20 years duction of 99.3% from the levels proposed by Ligado in provides the predictability and certainty to ensure the con- evolving spectrum licensing proceeding had powerful, po- to perfect a satellite service in satellite spectrum that’s 2015, the agency says. tinuation of the GPS success story,” Executive Director J. litically bipartisan support, including from U.S. Attorney proved critical in emergencies and disasters, all [assuming] Transmitted power levels were evaluated in a GPS David Grossman said in a statement. “The 1 dB Standard General William Barr, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, that our government would ensure our operations would Adjacent-Band Compatibility Assessment by the Trans- for radiofrequency-based services is critical for Global Nav- and U.S. Sen. Mark Warner (D-Va.), a former telecommu- be protected,” tweeted Iridium CEO Matt Desch, who has portation Department, which addressed transmitters in igation Satellite Systems.” nications executive. sharply criticized the FCC proceeding. “Ligado’s scattered, bands adjacent to the 1559-1610 MHz band used for GPS Ligado rejects this argument. “They falsely claim that “Swift FCC action on spectrum is imperative to allow low bandwidth-impaired spectrum has nothing to do with L1 signals at 1572.42 MHz. GPS receivers require protection in spectrum not assigned for the deployment of 5G,” said Barr after the release of the global race to 5G.” The study found that much of the noncertified GPS to GPS when the device-reported signal-to-noise ratio fluc- Pai’s draft order. “This is essential if we are to keep our On April 10, the National Telecommunications and In- equipment used for general aviation aircraft and drones tuates by an amount as small as 1 dB. Seeking this type of economic and technological leadership and avoid forfeiting formation Administration (NTIA) submitted supplemental would experience interference more than a kilometer from protection in an adjacent band is unprecedented and unnec- it to Communist China.” materials for the FCC to consider; the package followed a a Ligado transmitter. essary to ensure GPS continues to work,” states a video on Freeing L-band spectrum for use in tandem with the December 2019 correspondence that indicated the NTIA Avionics certified for instrument flight rules by the FAA the company’s website. C-band, as Pai has proposed, “would be a major step toward was “unable to recommend the commission’s approval of were much less susceptible than noncertified avionics and “In spectrum, the signal-to-noise is in a constant and per- preserving our economic future,” added Barr, who in the the Ligado applications.” would not experience interference unless a receiver were petual state of fluctuation, often by much more than 1 dB. past served as executive vice president and general counsel An agency of the Commerce Department, the NTIA within 250 ft. of a transmitter, still a concern for police It’s normal,” Ligado adds. of Verizon Communications. chairs the federal government’s Interdepartment Radio or emergency medical service (EMS) helicopters flying Asked about the protection afforded by the 23 MHz guard Arrayed in opposition were the bipartisan leadership Advisory Committee (IRAC), which represents the military low-level missions, observes Dana Goward, president of band, Goward said: “It doesn’t matter how big your guard of the House and Senate Armed Services Committees, services and executive branch agencies, including Barr’s the Resilient Navigation and Timing Foundation. band is if your power is going to override it. Considering House Transportation Committee Chairman Peter DeFazio Justice Department. The Alexandria, Virginia-based foundation, which ad- the power differential between Ligado and GPS, the guard (D-Ore.) and a veritable army of federal government agen- The second package from the NTIA included letters vocates for GPS system protections, has calculated that band should probably be at least twice as big.” c

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56 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MAY 4-17, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST AviationWeek.com/AWST AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MAY 4-17, 2020 57 VIEWPOINT

Opportunity in Crisis By Scott Thompson and Bill Lay

ou only find out where you are on the technology Supply Chain and MRO The aerospace supply chain lacks curve when the tide goes out. COVID-19 has ended speed, agility and visibility. True lead times are often years. Ythe near two-decade boom in aviation and plunged We have seen how this lack of agility hindered the recent the industry into crisis—and it is compounded by a lack of production ramp-up by extending the schedule and creating technological preparedness. What is worse is the significant bottlenecks. These dynamics create challenges in scaling uncertainty about the speed and strength of the recovery, down and then ramping back up. which for aerospace is likely to be more prolonged than Furthermore, while much of the value chain is highly for the overall economy due to long-term damage to the consolidated, there remain thousands of small suppliers that

airline industry. Airlines AIRBUS create risk around perfor- have taken on an enormous mance, agility and viability. amount of debt, and that Beyond the immediate tri- will dominate their capital age to preserve capability, allocation priorities. the industry should consid- This ebb tide has ex- er further consolidation, posed the dated technolo- which would reduce risk gy chains in our industry. and create appropriate These are not just informa- scale for suppliers to invest tion technology systems. in technology. Every company operates For supply chain man- on technology chains—a agement, blockchain is a combined set of approach- promising technology, cre- es to deliver customer val- ating visibility through the ue. Look at three important entire ecosystem and there- technology-chain elements: by validating authenticity digital transformation, the and identifying bottlenecks supply chain and the work- AEROSPACE COMPANIES MUST INVEST IN in real time. Blockchain also force of the future. creates an individual digi- Digital Transformation STRATEGIC PRIORITIES NOW TO tal twin of each aircraft, It has been said that “data including the life history is the new oil,” yet the ENSURE LONG-TERM COMPETITIVENESS. of all its components. The aerospace industry as a technology can help the in- whole has been slow to get dustry steepen its technolo- the memo. Certainly there have been some advancements, gy chain curve by improving predictive maintenance, safety including widespread use of 3D printing, but overall it has and reliability and improving MRO cost and performance. been slow to invest in digital transformation. One area Workforce A digital value chain requires a digital work- ripe for a digital upgrade is design and development of force. Companies should invest in accelerating the workforce new aircraft. The industry should significantly reduce of the future by creating a digital culture and training. The the time to design new aircraft by adopting enhanced entire workforce is affected by digital transformation and data analytics and artificial intelligence. There should requires new skills. COVID-19 will undoubtedly add layers also be increased investment in greater automation and of expense around the workforce, including work continuity analytics in operations, factory production, assembly and issues, medical costs and implementation of health testing. MRO. Examples abound in other industries. The relative To counter these costs, productivity will need to increase. insularity of the industry has done little to modernize its This degree of change can be daunting and requires delib- technology chains. erate change management practices to create a pervasive The aerospace industry is rich with data, but it is typi- and lasting digital culture. Drawing an analogy to computer cally difficult to mine and analyze because of its sheer scale skills, not everyone needs to understand programming to and the fact that it originates from myriad and disparate operate a computer. Yet all employees need digital acumen sources and systems. Investment in automated analyt- to identify applications and better decision-making skills to ical tools makes it possible to access and digest data in apply to new data analytics. real time, enabling better decision-making. Often these It has been said that management makes money in an improvements go far beyond improved efficiency because economic expansion but earns it in a recession. While com- the data, in its current state, is so cumbersome and manual panies are appropriately managing costs in this crisis, it that it is not even possible to accumulate it all for analysis. is critical that they invest in strategic priorities to ensure The technology curve for data manipulation, analysis and their long-term competitiveness. It is time to get on the monetization is moving at exponential speed. It is critical, right technology curve. c then, for the industry to ensure it can put its data—and new data analysis tools—to better use to truly operate in Scott Thompson is the aerospace and defense leader and Bill Lay dynamic environments. is an aerospace and defense principal at PwC U.S.

58 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MAY 4-17, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST VIEWPOINT

Opportunity in Crisis By Scott Thompson and Bill Lay ou only find out where you are on the technology Supply Chain and MRO The aerospace supply chain lacks curve when the tide goes out. COVID-19 has ended speed, agility and visibility. True lead times are often years. Ythe near two-decade boom in aviation and plunged We have seen how this lack of agility hindered the recent the industry into crisis—and it is compounded by a lack of production ramp-up by extending the schedule and creating technological preparedness. What is worse is the significant bottlenecks. These dynamics create challenges in scaling uncertainty about the speed and strength of the recovery, down and then ramping back up. which for aerospace is likely to be more prolonged than Furthermore, while much of the value chain is highly for the overall economy due to long-term damage to the consolidated, there remain thousands of small suppliers that

airline industry. Airlines AIRBUS create risk around perfor- have taken on an enormous mance, agility and viability. amount of debt, and that Beyond the immediate tri- will dominate their capital age to preserve capability, allocation priorities. the industry should consid- Stay Informed. Stay Connected. This ebb tide has ex- er further consolidation, posed the dated technolo- which would reduce risk gy chains in our industry. and create appropriate These are not just informa- scale for suppliers to invest Stay Engaged. tion technology systems. in technology. Every company operates For supply chain man- on technology chains—a agement, blockchain is a Locate new business with Aviation Week Intelligence Network’s (AWIN) combined set of approach- promising technology, cre- es to deliver customer val- ating visibility through the authoritative market insights and company, program, ﬂeet and contact databases ue. Look at three important entire ecosystem and there- technology-chain elements: by validating authenticity covering the global aviation, aerospace and defense community. digital transformation, the and identifying bottlenecks supply chain and the work- AEROSPACE COMPANIES MUST INVEST IN in real time. Blockchain also force of the future. creates an individual digi- Digital Transformation STRATEGIC PRIORITIES NOW TO tal twin of each aircraft, It has been said that “data including the life history is the new oil,” yet the ENSURE LONG-TERM COMPETITIVENESS. of all its components. The aerospace industry as a technology can help the in- whole has been slow to get dustry steepen its technolo- the memo. Certainly there have been some advancements, gy chain curve by improving predictive maintenance, safety including widespread use of 3D printing, but overall it has and reliability and improving MRO cost and performance. been slow to invest in digital transformation. One area Workforce A digital value chain requires a digital work- ripe for a digital upgrade is design and development of force. Companies should invest in accelerating the workforce new aircraft. The industry should significantly reduce of the future by creating a digital culture and training. The the time to design new aircraft by adopting enhanced entire workforce is affected by digital transformation and data analytics and artificial intelligence. There should requires new skills. COVID-19 will undoubtedly add layers also be increased investment in greater automation and of expense around the workforce, including work continuity analytics in operations, factory production, assembly and issues, medical costs and implementation of health testing. MRO. Examples abound in other industries. The relative To counter these costs, productivity will need to increase. insularity of the industry has done little to modernize its This degree of change can be daunting and requires delib- technology chains. erate change management practices to create a pervasive Become a member today. The aerospace industry is rich with data, but it is typi- and lasting digital culture. Drawing an analogy to computer cally difficult to mine and analyze because of its sheer scale skills, not everyone needs to understand programming to Visit aviationweek.com/AWINinfo to schedule your demo. and the fact that it originates from myriad and disparate operate a computer. Yet all employees need digital acumen sources and systems. Investment in automated analyt- to identify applications and better decision-making skills to ical tools makes it possible to access and digest data in apply to new data analytics. real time, enabling better decision-making. Often these It has been said that management makes money in an improvements go far beyond improved efficiency because economic expansion but earns it in a recession. While com- the data, in its current state, is so cumbersome and manual panies are appropriately managing costs in this crisis, it that it is not even possible to accumulate it all for analysis. is critical that they invest in strategic priorities to ensure The technology curve for data manipulation, analysis and their long-term competitiveness. It is time to get on the monetization is moving at exponential speed. It is critical, right technology curve. c then, for the industry to ensure it can put its data—and Or call or new data analysis tools—to better use to truly operate in Scott Thompson is the aerospace and defense leader and Bill Lay Anne McMahon at +1 646 291 6353 dynamic environments. is an aerospace and defense principal at PwC U.S. Thom Clayton +44 (0) 20 7017 6106

58 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MAY 4-17, 2020 AviationWeek.com/AWST Aircraft Insight to Grow Your Business

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