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Africa Bulletin October 2018

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Africa Bulletin October 2018 AFRICA BULLETIN OCTOBER 2018 NIGERIA Nigeria Set to Build World’s Largest Refinery Nigerian billionaire, Aliko Dangote, is undertaking a daring project of building a USD 12 billion oil refinery on 6,180 acres of swampland. If successful, this refinery could transform Nigeria’s underperforming petroleum industry. Planned as the world’s largest refinery, Dangote’s project is set in a free-trade zone between the Atlantic Ocean and the Lekki Lagoon, an hour outside the city center. The site employs thousands, and upon completion should process 650,000 barrels of crude oil daily. That’s enough oil to supply gasoline and kerosene to all 190 million Nigerians and still have plenty to export. By the end of the first year of operation, the facility is expected to churn out 3 million tons of fertilizer. The production of diesel, aviation fuel and plastics will then follow. SIGNIFICANCE The construction of the refinery has led employment creation. In addition, Dangote has had to build support structures and systems to accommodate this project, including a port, jetty and roads, along with new energy plants to power it all, thus greatly contributing to the improvement and development of infrastructure. In addition, the construction of the refinery an hour away from Lagos as well as the undersea pipelines will greatly contribute to the decongestion of the city and significantly reduce the disruption of transportation of crude oil compared to conventional above-ground systems. 2 OCTOBER 2018 AFRICA BULLETIN TABLE OF CONTENTS ALGERIA 3 RWANDA 8 Africa’s Largest Pharmaceutical Complex Bank of Kigali Group to Cross-List on Region’s Opens in Algeria Biggest Bourse BOTSWANA 3 SOUTH AFRICA 8 IMF Lowers Botswana’s 2019 Growth Forecast Proposal to Cap Petrol Prices a Welcome Respite for South Africans ETHIOPIA 4 Ethiopia Takes Free Movement in Africa Dream SUDAN 9 One Step Further Construction of Sudan’s Biggest Airport to Begin Next Year GUINEA 4 China’s Chalco Starts Work at Guinea Bauxite TANZANIA 9 Mine Tanzania Awards USD 3.6 Billion Dam Project to Egyptian Contractor KENYA 5 US Dollar Dominates Kenya’s Debt Basket UGANDA 10 Uganda’s Rural Electrification Programme Gets MADAGASCAR 5 USD 212 Million Boost Lemur Holdings Steams Ahead on Madagascar Coal IPP ZAMBIA 10 Nuclear Reactor Construction in Zambia to MALAWI 6 Commence Next Year Tobacco Industry Gets High on Revenue MAURITIUS 6 MCB Gets USD 150 Million Backing for Infrastructure Projects MOROCCO 7 Morocco’s Largest Insurer Sells Stake for USD 1 Billion MOZAMBIQUE 7 Mozambique’s LNG Project Gets USD 800 Million in Equity Investment 3 OCTOBER 2018 AFRICA BULLETIN ALGERIA Africa’s Largest Pharmaceutical Complex Opens in Algeria French pharmaceutical giant, Sanofi, recently inaugurated its third plant in Algeria. It will be the largest industrial complex of pharmaceutical production and distribution in Africa, representing an investment of approximately USD 96.6 million in Algeria. Located in Sidi Abdallah, the more than six hectares site will includes a production unit designed to manufacture a hundred pharmaceutical products in different therapeutic areas, including diabetes, cardiology and neurology, as well as a storage site and distribution center to support its activities. The logistics platform has been running for six months, while the production section is in the technical testing phase. The production unit is planned to reach full capacity by 2020, producing more than 100 million units a year. This will bring Sanofi’s local production up to 85 percent of its products sold in Algeria against the current 65 percent. SIGNIFICANCE With a growing population of 40 million, Algeria is the first market for Sanofi in Africa, which is estimated to be worth USD 3.8 billion according to the Algerian Ministry of Health. The pharmaceutical giant’s investment in Algeria serves as beacon to the increasing attention from international investors looking to do business in Africa’s emerging markets. The set up of the complex is anticipated to create more jobs, improve on the country’s export revenues whilst providing an avenue for the transfer of skills and knowledge in the pharmaceutical sector. BOTSWANA IMF Lowers Botswana’s 2019 Growth Forecast The International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects Botswana’s economy to grow by 3.6 percent next year, a significant reduction from its initial projection of 4.5 percent in April 2018. IMF researchers, however, have maintained their forecast for 2018 growth at 4.6 percent. The latest revisions are contained in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook (WEO) released in October. While the WEO is silent on the reasons behind the downward revision, the IMF reaches its forecasts based primarily on information gathered through consultations with member countries. Looking ahead, the global organisation has indicated that it was concerned about Botswana’s diamond-led development model and slows pace of reforms required to boost diversified growth. “Relying entirely on minerals and the state for development has downsides as the mining sector is capital-intensive, production is finite, and related revenues are volatile,” said the report. SIGNIFICANCE As the report looks ahead, growth is expected to slightly be moderate on the back of the slower rate of capital accumulation in both the mining and non-mining sectors. That said, the successful execution of planned public investment projects, as well as reforms to improve the business climate and attract foreign capital, are expected to support sustained growth in the near to medium-term. Some of the proposed reforms include reducing the cost of doing business, eliminating government-induced distortions such as monopolies, liberalising the granting of visas and work permits, realigning education, technical and vocational policies based on a close dialogue with the private sector on the needed skills. 4 OCTOBER 2018 AFRICA BULLETIN ETHIOPIA Ethiopia Takes Free Movement in Africa Dream One Step Further Africa’s second most populous nation will start a visa-on-arrival regime from 9 November 2018. The move follows the decision in June by new Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed to start issuing online visas for tourists and visitors coming from all over the world. Currently, all travelers, except those from Kenya and Djibouti, have to get a visa before departure or receive it on arrival. Other African countries with visa-on-arrival policies include Ghana, Rwanda, and Kenya who have consequently seen an increase in visitors to their countries. SIGNIFICANCE The visa-on-arrival initiative will likely be a bonus for Ethiopia’s hospitality and conference tourism sectors. The capital Addis Ababa is one of the world’s largest diplomatic hubs, hosting the seat of the African Union, the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa, and dozens of foreign embassies. The announcement also has big political ramifications especially for Abiy, who has promised to open up the country and attract foreign investment. The move will also likely be a windfall for Ethiopian Airlines, the state carrier that has dominated Africa’s airspace. The airline has in recent years taken up a pan-African strategy, launching more connections, reviving defunct national airlines, and setting up more hubs across the continent. GUINEA China’s Chalco Starts Work at Guinea Bauxite Mine China’s largest aluminium producer, Aluminum Corp of China (Chalco), has commenced the start of construction of its Boffa bauxite project in Guinea. The initial phase of the project will produce 12 million metric tons of bauxite ore per year, with production starting by end of 2019. The USD 164 million project sits atop an estimated 736 million metric tons of bauxite reserves. Chalco says the project is merely a portion of the USD 706 million it expects to eventually invest at the site. Improvements slated for the mine include construction of a port and transport infrastructure facilities. Chalco is among China’s top aluminium refiners, having reported a company-wide refining capacity of 16.86 million metric tons in its 2017 year-end report. SIGNIFICANCE Guinea has been a hotbed of activity in recent months and years, as major aluminium firms have been angling to carve out a piece of an estimated 7.4 billion metric tons of bauxite ore, which is approximately a quarter of the world’s total known resources. Though sitting on top of such a vast mountain of mineral wealth, Guinea has been unable to capitalise on it due to political and economic instability and a lack of infrastructure. Riots and political corruption have taken their toll on existing operations as well, with significant and expensive work stoppages happening as recently as this year. 5 OCTOBER 2018 AFRICA BULLETIN KENYA US Dollar Dominates Kenya’s Debt Basket The Kenya government’s appetite for dollar-denominated loans has left the country with nearly three quarters of its total foreign debt in dollars, leaving it exposed should the US currency strengthen significantly against the shilling and other currencies. The Treasury’s 2018 annual public debt management report shows that USD 14.4 billion or 71.7 percent of Kenya’s external debt stock of USD 23.9 billion was in dollars by the end of June 2018. Just five years ago in 2013, dollar-denominated loans accounted for 32.3 percent of total external debt, which at the time stood at USD 8.3 billion. The euro accounted for 33 percent or the largest component of the basket of currencies at the time but has since come down to 15 percent. Over the same period, the dollar picked 14 percent strength against the shilling, the exchange rate having moved from 86 to 100 Kenya shillings. SIGNIFICANCE The increased borrowing from China - mostly in dollars - is likely the main driver of the increased concentration of dollar debt. Economists have pointed out that it would be prudent for the Treasury to look at rebalancing the currency mix by insisting on different currency loans when borrowing from bilateral partners.
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