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Masterarbeit / Master's Thesis MASTERARBEIT / MASTER’S THESIS Titel der Masterarbeit / Title of the Master‘s Thesis „Russian Foreign Policy in the South Caucasus in the Context of Security Since the Collapse of the Soviet Union: Regional Conflicts and Russia's Involvement in Them“ verfasst von / submitted by Syuzanna Galstyan angestrebter akademischer Grad / in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Master (MA) Wien, 2017 / Vienna 2017 Studienkennzahl lt. Studienblatt / A 067 805 degree programme code as it appears on the student record sheet: Studienrichtung lt. Studienblatt / Individuelles Masterstudium: degree programme as it appears on Global Studies – a European Perspective the student record sheet: Betreut von / Supervisor: Univ.-Prof. Dr. Kerstin Susanne Jobst MASTERARBEIT / MASTER THESIS Titel der Masterarbeit /Title of the master thesis Russian Foreign Policy in the South Caucasus in the Context of Security Since the Collapse of the Soviet Union: Regional Conflicts and Russia's Involvement in Them Verfasser /Author Syuzanna Galstyan angestrebter akademischer Grad / acadamic degree aspired Master (MA) Wien, 2017 Studienkennzahl : A 067 805 Studienrichtung: Individuelles Masterstudium: Global Studies – a European Perspective Betreuer/Supervisor: Univ.-Prof. Dr. Kerstin Susanne Jobst Abstract The paper examines Russian foreign policy in the South Caucasus in the context of security since the demise of the Soviet Union (SU). After the collapse of the SU, the overriding objective of Russia has been to maintain its supremacy and influence in the post-Soviet area. The South Caucasus, referred to as a part of the ‗near abroad‘, is of special interest to Russia which as has always been portrayed as ‗‗an inalienable part of the history and fate of Russia‘‘. Russia plays a dominant role in the region which bolsters its standing as a great power on the international arena. Following the fall of the SU, the region has become turmoil of violent ethno-political clashes with Russia‘s direct and indirect involvement. The Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict over Nagorno- Karabakh (NK), Georgian-Abkhazian and Georgian-South Ossetian conflicts (which should be viewed in the context of Russian-Georgian conflict) have turned the region into a dangerous source of regional instability with spillover effect. Though these three conflicts are characterized by more differences rather than similarities, the choice has been preconditioned by the theoretical framework used to explain the security dynamics of the region and interconnectedness of security of the Regional Security Complex (RSC), in this case sub-complex component countries. The focus of the paper is on Russian foreign policy in the region in the context of security and its involvement in the conflicts. The research examines Russian security interests in the region with attempts to understand whether instability in the South Caucasus is in Kremlin‘s interest. On the one hand, based on the Regional Security Complex Theory (RSCT), the instability in the region cannot be in the Kremlin‘s interests since it might have the domino effect and could spill over the North Caucasus. On the other hand, the study reveals that Russia is much more interested in preserving the status quo, rather than in the settlement of those conflicts. Based on the study of both primary and secondary sources the research comes to the conclusion that the so called ‗controlled instability‘ best suits Kremlin‘s interests. Frequent clashes between conflicting sides provide Russia with opportunities to influence/control the instability in the region under the guise of a mediator or protector, which in its turn bolsters Russia‘s dominance in the region and its stand as a great power on the international arena. Key Words: South Caucasus, Russian Foreign Policy, Russian Security Interests, Security, Great Power, Regional Conflicts, Nagorno-Karabakh, South-Ossetia, Abkhazia, RSC, RSCT. i Abstract Die vorliegende Arbeit untersucht russische Außenpolitik im Südkaukasus im Sicherheitskontext seit dem Untergang der Sowjetunion (SU). Nach diesem Ereignis zählte zum übergeordneten Ziel Russlands seine Vormachtstellung und seinen Einfluss im Post-Sowjetraum zu erhalten. Der Südkaukasus, der als Teil von „near abroad― bezeichnet wurde, ist von speziellem Interesse für Russland und wurde außerdem stets als „ein unabdingbarer Teil von Russlands Geschichte und Schicksal― dargestellt. Russland spielt eine vorherrschende Rolle in der Region, was seine Stellung als Großmacht in der internationalen Arena bestärkt. Im Zuge des Zusammenbruchs der SU versank die Region in Turbulenzen mit gewaltvollen ethno- politischen Konflikten, in welche Russland direkt und indirekt involviert war. Der Konflikt zwischen Armenien und Aserbaidschan in Nagorno-Karabach (NK), die georgisch-abchasischen und georgisch-südossetischen Konflikte (welche im Kontext des russisch-georgischen Konflikts betrachtet werden sollten), haben die Region in eine gefährliche Quelle regionaler Instabilität mit Spillover-Effecten transformiert. Auch wenn diese drei Konflikte eher durch Unterschiede als durch Gemeinsamkeiten geprägt sind, wurde die Auswahl der Fallbeispiele durch die theoretischen Rahmenkonzepte bedingt, um die Sicherheitsdynamiken und die gegenseitige Abhängigkeit der Sicherheit im „Regional Security Complex (RSC)― zu erläutern, in diesem Fall „sub-complex component― Länder. Der Schwerpunkt dieser Arbeit bildet die russische Außenpolitik im Kontext Sicherheit im Südkaukasus und die Involvierung Russlands in die vorherrschenden Konflikte. Die Forschungsarbeit untersucht russische Sicherheitsinteressen in der Region, um nachvollziehen zu können, ob ein Interesse des Kremls an Instabilität im Südkaukasus besteht. Einerseits kann laut der Regional Security Complex Theory (RSCT) Russland nicht direkt an Instabilität interessiert sein, da dadurch ein Domino-Effekt entstehen und den Nordkaukasus beeinflussen könnte. Andererseits offenbart die Studie, dass Russland mehr Interesse an dem Erhalt des Status Quo zeigt als die Konflikte beizulegen. Nach der Analyse von sowohl Primär- als auch Sekundärquellen kommt die Untersuchung zu dem Schluss, dass eine sogenannte „kontrollierte Instabilität― dem Kreml am meisten zu Gute kommt. Regelmäßige Auseinandersetzungen zwischen beiden Konfliktparteien bieten Russland die Möglichkeit, die Instabilität in der Region zu beeinflussen oder zu kontrollieren und in der Gestalt des Vermittlers oder des Beschützers aufzutreten, was die Vormachtstellung Russlands in der Region hervorhebt und seine Rolle als Großmacht auf internationalem Areal bestärkt. Schlüsselwörter: Südkaukausus, russische Außenpolitik, russische Sicherheitsinteressen, Großmacht, regionale Konflikte, Nagorno-Karabach, Südossetien, Abchasien, RSC, RSCT. ii Contents Acknowledgments ................................................................................................................ iv List of Abbreviations ............................................................................................................ v 1. Introduction .......................................................................................................................... 1 1.1. Methodology and Sources .............................................................................................. 6 2. Theoretical Framework ......................................................................................................... 7 2.1. Regional Security Complex Theory: A Conceptual Approach ........................................ 7 2.2. Regional Security Sub-Complexes around Russia ......................................................... 11 2.3. Defining the South Caucasus as a Regional Security Sub-Complex .............................. 12 3. Post-Soviet Security Interests of Russia in the South Caucasus ........................................... 18 3.1. Primary Documents on Russian Foreign and Security Policies ..................................... 23 3.1.1. Foreign Policy Concept(s) of the Russian Federation ......................................... 23 3.1.2. National Security Concept(s) of the Russian Federation ..................................... 26 3.1.3. The National Security Strategy to 2020 .............................................................. 28 3.1.4. Russian Military Doctrine until 2020 ................................................................. 29 4. Conflicts in the South Caucasus .......................................................................................... 32 4.1. The Russia-Georgian Conflict ..................................................................................... 36 4.1.1. Abkhazia .......................................................................................................... 36 4.1.2. South Ossetia .................................................................................................... 39 4.2. The Case of Nagorno-Karabakh and Russia ................................................................. 44 5. Russia‘s Involvement in the Regional Conflicts: A Mediator or Provocateur? ..................... 53 5.1. Nagorno-Karabakh and Russia .................................................................................... 54 5.2. Georgia and Russia ...................................................................................................... 63 6. Conclusion .......................................................................................................................... 68 7. Bibliography ......................................................................................................................
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