Kaskaskia River Basin Streamflow Assessment Model: Hydrologic Analysis
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Illinois State Water Survey HYDROLOGY DIVISION SWS Contract Report 499 KASKASKIA RIVER BASIN STREAMFLOW ASSESSMENT MODEL: HYDROLOGIC ANALYSIS by H. Vernon Knapp Office of Surface Water Resources and Systems Analysis Prepared for the llllinols Department of Transportation, Division of Water Resources Champaign, Illinois November 1990 Illinois Department of Energy end Natural Resources KASKASKIA RIVER BASIN STREAMFLOW ASSESSMENT MODEL: HYDROLOGIC ANALYSIS by H. Vernon Knapp Prepared for the Illinois Department of Transportation, Division of Water Resources Illinois State Water Survey 2204 Griffith Drive Champaign, Illinois 61820-7495 November 1990 CONTENTS INTRODUCTION 1 General Products and Use of the Model 3 Acknowledgments 3 Part I. Background Information DESCRIPTION OF THE KASKASKIA RIVER BASIN 4 Watershed Physiography and Soils 4 Reservoirs in the Kaskaskia River Basin 9 Hydrologic Budget 10 Population 16 WATER USE AND WATER SUPPLY IN THE KASKASKIA RIVER BASIN 14 Use of Lake Shelbyville and Carlyle Lake Water 18 Part II. Streamflow Assessment STREAMFLOW RECORDS 22 Applicability of Gaging Records for the Streamflow Assessment Analysis 22 ESTIMATING FLOW AT GAGED SITES: DEFINING VIRGIN AND PRESENT FLOW CONDITIONS 26 Discharges to Streams 26 Withdrawals from Streams 30 Simulating the Effects of Reservoirs on the Kaskaskia River 30 Simulating the Effects of Reservoirs Located on Smaller Streams 32 ESTIMATING FLOW AT GAGED SITES: DEFINING FLOW FREQUENCY 34 Flow Duration Adjustments for Differences in Period of Record 34 Defining Recurrence Intervals for Low Flows and Drought Flows 35 Selected Results from the Analyses 35 ESTIMATING FLOW AT UNGAGED SITES 39 Virgin Flow Equations 39 Inclusion of Information from Nearby Gaged Sites 46 Verification of the Procedure to Estimate Flow at Ungaged Sites 47 MODEL OPERATION 49 Uncertainties of Flow Estimation 49 CONCLUSION 51 REFERENCES 52 APPENDICES A. Control Points: Location and Estimated Flow 54 B. Withdrawals and Effluent Discharges: Location and Estimated Flow 73 C. NETWORK File Describing the Location of All Streams, Control Points, Withdrawals, and Discharges in the Kaskaskia River Basin 92 TABLES 1. Distribution of Overland Slopes in the Physiographic Regions of the Kaskaskia River Basin 8 2. Examples of Channel Slopes in the Kaskaskia River Basin 8 3. Major Reservoirs in the Kaskaskia River Basin 10 4. Precipitation Deficits and Historical Drought Ranking, Kaskaskia River Basin, 1837-1988 14 5. Typical Monthly Distribution of Precipitation, Evapotranspiration, Streamflow, and Subsurface Storage 16 6. Population Data for Kaskaskia River Basin Counties 17 7. Public Water Supply Systems and Sources 19 8. Selected Stream-Stage and Discharge Records for the Kaskaskia River Basin 24 9. Relationship Between the Frequency of Streamflow and the Effluent Discharge Ratio Applied to Equation 3 to Estimate Daily Effluents 29 10. Simulated and Recorded Outflows, Present Flow, and Virgin Flow: Shelbyville and Carlyle Reservoirs 31 11. Selected Flow Parameters of Virgin Flow, Present Flow, and the Period of Record 37 12. USGS Gaging Stations Used in the Regression Analysis of Virgin Flow 40 13. Regression Coefficients for Virgin Flow Equations (Using Equations 12 and 13) 42 14. Estimation of Flow Duration Curves for Gaging Stations Outside the Kaskaskia River Basin 48 FIGURES 1. Location of the river basins for which the Illinois Streamflow Assessment Model has been developed 2 2. Location of the Kaskaskia River basin in Illinois 5 3. Location of major streams in the Kaskaskia River basin 6 4. Physiographic regions in the Kaskaskia River basin 7 5. Geographic distribution of a) average annual precipitation and evapotranspiration, and b) streamflow in the Kaskaskia River basin, 1948-1988 11 6. Annual precipitation, 11-year moving average of annual precipitation, and long-term average precipitation: St Louis, Greenville, and Charleston, 1890-1940 12 7. Annual precipitation, 11-year moving average of annual precipitation, and long-term average precipitation: St. Louis, Greenville, and Charleston, 1940-1990 13 8. Stream gages in the Kaskaskia River basin that provide continuous records of discharge 23 9. Relationship between the average monthly effluent for Champaign and the average monthly streamflow in the Kaskaskia Ditch near Bondville 28 10. Seasonal pattern of residuals from equation 2 28 11. Relationship between the average flow in the 18-month drought and its frequency of occurrence, and years of occurrence for severe droughts 36 KASKASKIA RIVER BASIN STREAMFLOW ASSESSMENT MODEL: HYDROLOGIC ANALYSIS by H. Vernon Knapp INTRODUCTION The Illinois Streamflow Assessment Model (ILSAM) is a computer program that produces estimates of the long-term expected magnitude and frequency of streamflow for any location in a watershed. The model is designed to provide basic streamflow information for use in the management and planning of surface water resource projects. ILSAM is particularly useful for examining conflicts in the use of streamflow and in evaluating the effects of conflicting water use practices on streamflow quantity. The effects of potential or hypothetical water resource projects (withdrawals, discharges, and reservoirs) on the quantity of water in the present hydrologic regime can also be examined using options available in the model. The effects of a modification to the flow at any one site may then be translated to other locations downstream. This report describes the development of the hydrologic data for the ILSAM model for the Kaskaskia River watershed, located in southwestern Illinois. In addition to this watershed, the model has been developed for three others in Illinois: the Sangamon River, Fox River, and Kankakee River basins. The location of these watersheds is shown in figure 1. Many of the algorithms that estimate the effects of water use practices on streamflow quantity are presented in earlier reports (Knapp et al., 1985; Knapp, 1988). The operation of the model is further described in the ILSAM User's Guide (Mills and Knapp, 1989). ILSAM is available from the Illinois State Water Survey on 5-1/4" floppy diskettes for use on an IBM-PC/AT* or compatible computer having a minimum random access memory (RAM) of 512 K (kilobytes). * IBM-PC and IBM-AT are trademarks of the International Business Machines Corporation 1 Figure 1. Location of the river basins for which the Illinois Streamflow Assessment Model has been developed 2 General Products and Use of the Model ILSAM produces information on 154 selected flow parameters, including flow duration relationships (flow versus percentage of duration) and low flows for various durations and expected return intervals. The 154 flow parameters produced by the model are as follows: Annual Flow Duration Values (% probability of exceedance, for example Q02 = the flow exceeded only 2% of the time) — Qmean (mean flow), Q99, Q98, Q95, Q90, Q85, Q75, Q60, Q50, Q40, Q25, Q15, Q10, Q05, Q02, Q01 Monthly Flow Duration Values (probability of exceedance for each month of the year)- Qmean, Q98, Q90, Q75, Q50, Q25, Q10, Q02 Low Flows (annual series, average flow rate over the given duration) — Durations: 1-day, 7-day, 15-day, 31-day, 61-day, 91-day Return intervals: 2 years, 10 years, 25 years, 50 years Drought Flows (average flow rate) - Durations: 6-month, 9-month, 12-month, 18-month, 30-month, 54-month Return intervals: 10 years, 25 years, 50 years The flow parameters are presented for both present flow conditions and virgin (natural or unaffected) conditions. The virgin flow is an estimate of what the streamflow would be without the presence of the major water users and reservoirs in the watershed. The difference between the virgin and present flow therefore describes the impact of the various water resources projects on the flow in the stream. The model's user may choose to introduce a hypothetical (or potential) withdrawal/discharge and estimate its effect on the specified flow parameters. This introduces a third type of flow, termed "altered flow." Flow conditions may be estimated for any gaged or ungaged site in the watershed with a drainage area of at least 10 square miles. Acknowledgments This study was supported by the Illinois Department of Transportation, Division of Water Resources, with Gary Clark as project coordinator. This report was prepared under the general supervision of Richard G. Semonin, Chief of the Illinois State Water Survey; John M. Shafer, Hydrology Division Head; and Krishan P. Singh, Director of the Office of Surface Water Resources and Systems Analysis. Joe Miller and Cheri Chenowith assisted in data analysis and management. John Brother, Linda Riggin, and Cheri Chenowith prepared the illustrations, and Laurie McCarthy Talkington edited the report. 3 Part I. Background Information DESCRIPTIO N OF THE KASKASKIA RIVER BASIN The Kaskaskia River is located in the southwestern portion of Illinois and has a total area of approximately 5,800 square miles. The watershed encompasses portions of 22 counties, as shown in figure 2. The Kaskaskia River originates in Champaign County and flows southwest to its confluence with the Mississippi River in Randolph County (see figure 3). The river starts as a channelized ditch in the flat prairie of central Illinois and through much of its first 60 miles the riverbed remains only slightly entrenched into the surrounding prairie. South of Shelbyville, the topography of the watershed becomes more gently rolling, and in this area the river has developed a broad, flat-bottomed valley (Ekblaw, 1937). The total length of the river is approximately 302 miles. The total range in elevation of the watershed is almost 500 feet, from 855 feet (National Geodetic Vertical Datum) near the headwaters in Champaign County to 368 feet at the Kaskaskia Lock and Dam. The slope of the Kaskaskia River is remarkably consistent over much of its length. Downstream of Shelbyville the river has a slope of approximately 1.0 foot per mile. The slope upstream of Shelbyville is only slightly higher, averaging 1.5 feet per mile until within 6 miles of the headwaters - where the channel elevation rises more than 125 feet.