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Estimating Flood-Peak Discharge Magnitudes and Frequencies for Rural Streams in Illinois

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Estimating Flood-Peak Discharge Magnitudes and Frequencies for Rural Streams in Illinois In cooperation with the Illinois Department of Natural Resources, Offices of Water Resources, Realty and Environmental Planning–Conservation 2000 Program, and Resource Conservation; and with the Illinois Department of Transportation Estimating Flood-Peak Discharge Magnitudes and Frequencies for Rural Streams in Illinois Scientific Investigations Report 2004-5103 U.S. Department of the Interior U.S. Geological Survey Estimating Flood-Peak Discharge Magnitudes and Frequencies for Rural Streams in Illinois By David T. Soong, Audrey L. Ishii, Jennifer B. Sharpe, and Charles F. Avery In cooperation with the Illinois Department of Natural Resources, Offices of Water Resources, Realty and Environmental Planning–Conservation 2000 Program, and Resource Conservation; and with the Illinois Department of Transportation Scientific Investigations Report 2004-5103 U.S. Department of the Interior U.S. Geological Survey U.S. Department of the Interior Gale A. Norton, Secretary U.S. Geological Survey Charles G. Groat, Director U.S. Geological Survey, Reston, Virginia: 2004 For sale by U.S. Geological Survey, Information Services Box 25286, Denver Federal Center Denver, CO 80225 For more information about the USGS and its products: Telephone: 1-888-ASK-USGS World Wide Web: http://www.usgs.gov/ Any use of trade, product, or firm names in this publication is for descriptive purposes only and does not imply endorsement by the U.S. Government. Although this report is in the public domain, permission must be secured from the individual copyright owners to reproduce any copyrighted materials contained within this report. Photograph in the upper left shows a bridge over the Fox River near Lotus Woods in Lake County, Illinois (photograph by Gary P. Johnson, U.S. Geological Survey, Illinois Water Science Center). Photograph in the lower right shows a bank-erosion site on Canteen Creek in St. Clair County, Illinois (photograph by Timothy D. Straub and Donald P. Rose- boom, U.S. Geological Survey, Illinois Water Science Center). iii Contents Abstract ...........................................................................................................................................................1 Introduction.....................................................................................................................................................1 Purpose and Scope ..............................................................................................................................3 Report Organization ..............................................................................................................................3 Previous Flood-Frequency Analyses for Illinois ..............................................................................3 Flood-Peak Discharge Magnitudes and Frequencies at Gaged Sites ..................................................5 Data Availability ....................................................................................................................................5 Determination of Recurrence Intervals ............................................................................................6 Estimates of Flood-Frequency Relations Based on Annual Maximum Series .........................10 Estimates of Flood-Frequency Relations Based on Partial Duration Series .............................10 Effect of Updated Flood-Frequency Analysis on At-Site Flood Quantiles Based on Annual Maximum Series ...........................................................................................................10 Example At-Site Frequency Curves for Annual Maximum Series and Partial Duration Series ....................................................................................................................12 Regional Frequency Analysis.....................................................................................................................12 Hydrologic Regions for Illinois ..........................................................................................................12 Basin Characteristics .........................................................................................................................12 Multiple Regression Analysis ...........................................................................................................12 Measurement of Explanatory Variables ..........................................................................................15 Techniques for Estimating Flood-Peak Discharge Magnitudes and Frequencies ............................16 Annual Maximum Series Regional Equations for Rural, Unregulated Streams .......................22 Application of Annual Maximum Series Regional Equations .............................................23 Ungaged Sites ...................................................................................................................24 Gaged Sites ........................................................................................................................24 Near Gaged Sites .............................................................................................................26 Accuracy and Limitation of the Annual Maximum Series Regional Equations ...............27 Regulated and Urban Streams ...............................................................................................27 Partial Duration Series Regional Equations for Rural, Unregulated Streams ..........................28 Summary and Conclusions .........................................................................................................................35 Acknowledgments .......................................................................................................................................39 Selected References ...................................................................................................................................39 Glossary .........................................................................................................................................................44 Appendix 1. Data Preparation ...................................................................................................................47 Appendix 2. At-Site Analysis of Flood-Peak Series ..............................................................................54 Appendix 3. Generalized Skew Coefficients for Illinois ........................................................................61 Appendix 4. Effects of Additional Flood Records and Updated Generalized Skew Coefficients on At-Site Flood Quantiles Based on Annual Maximum Series .......................66 Appendix 5. Determination of Basin Characteristics ............................................................................72 Appendix 6. Hydrologic Regions for Illinois ............................................................................................78 Appendix 7. Regression Analysis .............................................................................................................82 Appendix 8. Digital Data and Plots (CD-ROM in pocket) ......................................................................91 iv Figures 1. Diagram showing development of flood-frequency relations and regional flood-frequency techniques for rural streams in Illinois ........................................................4 2A-5. Maps showing— 2A. Location (as of 2002) of U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging stations in Illinois and adjacent States for which annual maximum series (AMS) were retrieved and flood quantiles were estimated, and stations used in the regression analysis ........................................................................................................7 2B. Location (as of 2002) of U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging stations in northern Illinois and adjacent States for which annual maximum series (AMS) were retrieved and flood quantiles were estimated, and stations used in the regression analysis ...............................................................................................................8 3. Location (as of 2002) of U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging stations in Illinois and adjacent States for which partial duration series (PDS) were retrieved, and stations used in the regression analysis .................................................9 4. Updated generalized skew-coefficient map for Illinois. ...............................................11 5. Hydrologic regions for flood-frequency analysis of rural streams in Illinois. ...........13 6-7. Graphs showing— 6. Flood-frequency curve based on annual maximum series (AMS) analysis for Bluegrass Creek at Potomac, Vermilion County Ill., (03336500). ..................................14 7. Flood-frequency curve based on partial duration series (PDS) analysis for Bluegrass Creek at Potomac, Vermilion County Ill., (03336500). ..................................14 8A-8D. Maps showing— 8A. Average soil permeability (from 0.2 to less than 1.0 inch per hour) for Illinois. Average soil permeability is obtained by taking the arithmetic average of the high and low soil-permeability values from the STATSGO database ...............................................................................................................................17 8B. Average soil permeability (from 1.0 to less than 2.0 inches per hour) for Illinois. Average soil permeability is obtained by taking the arithmetic average of the
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