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A STUDY of MAXIXE DISTRICT by ZEFANIAS ALBERTO MATSIMBE

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A STUDY of MAXIXE DISTRICT by ZEFANIAS ALBERTO MATSIMBE VOTING BEHAVIOUR IN MOZAMBIQUE: A STUDY OF MAXIXE DISTRICT By ZEFANIAS ALBERTO MATSIMBE Submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY in the Department of Political Sciences, University of Pretoria Faculty of Humanities Supervisor: Prof. Maxi M. E. Schoeman February 2017 © University of Pretoria DEDICATION I dedicate this work to all members of the Matsimbe family. i © University of Pretoria ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I give all the Honour and Glory to the living God for being the centre of it all, throughout my long journey and for protecting my young family while I am away. With you Lord, everything is possible. My sincerest gratitude goes to my supervisor Professor Maxi Schoeman for her unconditional support, guidance, encouragement and commitment even under difficult situations. She imparted critical research and analytical skills and stretched my imagination. My dream would not have come true without the unconditional support of my family. I have no words to express my gratitude to my wife Edna who battled alone to feed, clothe, raise and educate our beautiful children while I was away. I also thank my mother and the rest of the Matsimbe and Ataíde family members for their support and prayers. May the Lord continue pouring His blessing on you! I am very grateful to all my friends and colleagues of different nationalities in Pretoria. I learnt a lot from you. Thank you for your support and encouragement. I also thank the Ventura family for hosting me for the duration of my fieldwork in Inhambane. I am also grateful to all people I interacted with in Maxixe, particularly my respondents. I appreciate the good working relationship I had with all members of staff from the Department of Political Sciences and at the Jakaranda residence who made my stay in Pretoria pleasurable. Thank you for your support. I am grateful to my employer, the Eduardo Mondlane University and to my sponsors, the Institute for Social Studies (ISS) at Erasmus University, for offering me an amazing opportunity to pursue my PhD studies. I thank all my colleagues for believing in me, particularly those from Department of Political Science and Public Administration. ii © University of Pretoria DECLARATION I, Zefanias Alberto Matsimbe, declare that this thesis is my own unaided work, both in concept and execution. It is being submitted for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in the Department of Political Sciences at the University of Pretoria, South Africa. It has not been submitted before for any degree or examination at this or any other university. Zefanias Alberto Matsimbe ---------------------------------------------------- Pretoria, February 2017 iii © University of Pretoria ABSTRACT AND KEYWORDS This thesis identifies and examines factors that shape voters’ choice in Maxixe district in order to understand how voters decide in general in Mozambique. It is a case study of Maxixe district, one of the fourteen districts of Inhambane Province in southern Mozambique, which is historically a stronghold for the ruling Frelimo party. It is an interesting region for study because it is an economic hub and a cosmopolitan town, with a multi-ethnic population comprising three ethnolinguistic groups, yet at times it has been assumed to be a homogeneous region. As such, one cannot rush to conclude that ethnicity plays a major role in politics and voting behaviour. Yet no studies on voting behaviour have been conducted in this region. The study is based on four theoretical frameworks commonly used in election studies, namely the sociological, socio-psychological, rational choice and the cognitive awareness approaches. Methodologically, it prioritises the social constructivism paradigm, case study research design and qualitative research approach. Findings confirm that ethnicity does not determine party choice or voting behaviour in Maxixe. Age forms an important cleavage among voters as the elderly always vote for Frelimo while younger voters are more independent. Party identification influences voting choice to some extent, but mainly for strategic purposes. While the economy determines voting behaviour to some extent, voters do not use their dissatisfaction to punish the incumbent ruling party and political sophistication does not influence voting. KEYWORDS: voting behaviour, elections, ethnicity, economic performance, FRELIMO, RENAMO, Maxixe district, Mozambique. iv © University of Pretoria LIST OF ACRONYMS ANC – African National Congress AR – Assembleia da República (National Assembly) AU - African Union AWEPA - Association of European Parliamentarians with Africa CAP – Centro de Análise de Políticas (Centre for Policy Analysis) CC – Conselho Constitucional (Constitutional Council) CCM – Conselho Cristão de Moçambique (Christian Council of Mozambique) CDE – Comissão Distrital de Eleições (District Election Commission) CEP – Centro de Estudos da Population (Centre for Population Study) CNE – Comissão Nacional de Eleições (National Election Commission) CNEP – Comparative National Election Project CSO - Civil Society Organisation EISA - Electoral Institute for Sustainable Democracy in Africa EMB – Electoral Management Body EN1 – Estrada Nacional 1 EUEOM - European Union Election Observation Mission FRELIMO – Frente da Libertação de Moçambique (Front for Liberation of Mozambican) GDP - Gross Domestic Product GPA – General Peace Agreement INE - National Institute of Statistics MDM - Movimento Democrático de Moçambique (Democratic Movement of Mozambique) MP – Member of Parliament OAU - Organisation of African Unity OE – Observatório Eleitoral (Electoral Observatory) ONUMOZ – United Nations Operation in Mozambique PR - Proportional Representation RENAMO - National Resistance of Mozambique RM - Rádio Moçambique (Radio Mozambique) RUE - RENAMO União Eleitoral (RENAMO Electoral Union) SADC - Southern African Development Community SOICO – Sociedade Independente de Comunicação (The Independent Communications Society) v © University of Pretoria STAE – Secretariado Técnico da Administração Eleitoral (Technical Secretariat for Election Administration) STV – Soico Television TVM - Televisão de Moçambique (Mozambican Television) UD – União Democrática (Democratic Union) UEM – Universidade Eduardo Mondlane (Eduardo Mondlane University) UMC - United Methodist Church UN – United Nations USD – United States Dollar ZANLA - Zimbabwe African National Liberation Army ZANU - Zimbabwe African National Union ZAPU - Zimbabwe African People's Union ZIPRA - Zimbabwe People's Revolutionary Army vi © University of Pretoria LIST OF TABLES Table 1: Distribution of seats per constituency (2014 elections) P. 69 Table 2: Distribution of seats (MPs) in the parliament since 1994 P. 88 Table 3: Research theme and equivalent research question P. 91 Table 4: Theme, research question and working assumption P. 143 vii © University of Pretoria LIST OF APPENDICES Appendix A: Letter of Consent P. 200 Appendix B: Interview Schedule P. 202 Appendix C: Focus Group Guide P. 205 viii © University of Pretoria TABLE OF CONTENTS DEDICATION........................................................................................................................................ i ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ................................................................................................................. ii DECLARATION.................................................................................................................................. iii ABSTRACT AND KEYWORDS ....................................................................................................... iv LIST OF ACRONYMS ........................................................................................................................ v LIST OF TABLES .............................................................................................................................. vii LIST OF APPENDICES ................................................................................................................... viii CHAPTER 1: BACKGROUND AND RATIONALE FOR THE STUDY ...................................... 1 1.1 INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND ............................................................................. 1 1.2 SIGNIFICANCE OF THE STUDY ......................................................................................... 4 1.3 PURPOSE OF THE STUDY ................................................................................................... 6 1.4 RESEARCH QUESTIONS ...................................................................................................... 6 1.5 WORKING ASSUMPTIONS .................................................................................................. 7 1.6 CORE THEORETICAL APPROACHES .............................................................................. 7 1.6.1 The Sociological Approach ................................................................................................. 8 1.6.2 The Socio-psychological Approach .................................................................................... 9 1.6.3 The Rational Choice Approach ........................................................................................... 9 1.6.4 The Cognitive Awareness Approach ................................................................................ 10 1.7 EPISTEMOLOGICAL PARADIGM: SOCIAL CONSTRUTIVISM ............................... 11 1.8 RESEARCH DESIGN ...........................................................................................................
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