AN ASSESSMENT OF THE DISTRIBUTION AND CONSERVATION STATUS OF ENDEMIC AND NEAR ENDEMIC PLANT SPECIES IN MAPUTALAND Hermenegildo Alfredo Matimele Supervised by: Domitilla Raimondo, Timm Hoffman, Jonathan Timberlake, Mervyn Lötter and John Burrows Submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Masters of Science in Conservation Biology Percy FitzPatrick Institute of African Ornithology University of Cape Town Rondebosch, 7701 South Africa February 2016 I PLAGIARISM DECLARATION I know that plagiarism is wrong and declare that all documents that contributed to this study have been cited and referenced. I have used the Journal of Conservation Biology as the convention for citation and referencing. Signed: Date: 15 January 2016 II ACKNOWLEDGMENTS I am sincerely grateful to all the following people who directly or indirectly contributed significantly to the success of this project. Firstly, are my supervisors: Domitilla Raimondo, for assisting me to access funding, and aiding with assessing the conservation status of the study plants; Timm Hoffman, for being a very easy going person, available at any time I needed assistance, and encouraging me through his expertise to overcome difficulties; Mervyn Lotter, for expert assistance in species distribution modeling, and in manipulating GIS for all analysis needed; John and Sandie Burrows for botanical assistance including access to their home library and herbarium, as well as the extra care when I stayed on their property; and finally to Jonathan Timberlake, for his company and assistance in the field in the heat of Mozambique, attention which went beyond thesis assistance, to carry me through personal adjustments and concerns. I am also grateful to: Barbara Turpin for tirelessly assisting me with the BRAHMS program, enabling me to appreciate the value of technology in managing data; Heather Terrapon, who was very encouraging in her assistance with GIS; Alice Massingue for providing the information about localities where Raphia australis occur; and GEOTERRA IMAGE (Pty) Ltd who provided the land cover data set. I also appreciate the opportunity to work with the KwaZulu-Natal CREW team in searching for species of interest in South Africa Maputaland. Thank you Hlengiwe Mtshali for geo-referencing specimens housed at the KwaZulu-Natal herbarium. I offer sincere gratitude to Martinho Muatxiwa, manager of the Hotel Bilene in Mozambique, for providing free accommodation for six people. I am also very grateful to the IIAM, for allowing me to continue with my studies and for issuing permits for me and my supervisors to collect plant specimens. An enormous thank you to all my classmates who gave me support which has enabled me to accomplish my studies. Words cannot express the level of my gratitude to the South African National Biodiversity Institute (SANBI) for fully funding my studies and this research project, including travelling expenses. Carol Poole and her team made my life easy by dealing so efficiently with all the logistics. The funding came from a project entitled “Building capacity for ecosystem and biodiversity assessment in the Southern African region”, implemented by SANBI and funded by the Norwegian Government through the Norwegian Environment Agency. III ABSTRACT The Maputaland Centre of Endemism (MCE), an area stretching from northern-east KwaZulu- Natal in South Africa to the Limpopo River in southern Mozambique, holds more than 2,500 native plant species. Of those, over 203 are endemic or near endemic to this area. However, the current high human population density in MCE, coupled with high population growth, has increased the pressure on the natural resources of the region and threatens the natural vegetation and plant diversity. Therefore, there is a pressing need to fully understand the threats faced by the Maputaland endemic and near endemic plants and to carry out appropriate conservation actions. In this context, the main aim of the study was to document the distribution of the MCE endemic plant species, with particular emphasis on southern Mozambique. The study also aimed to document the threats to these species and to assess their global conservation status using the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List Categories and Criteria. This was done by gathering historical species distribution data from herbarium specimens and by assessing their current distribution in the field. In addition, a land cover data set was used to evaluate the level of habitat transformation over time. As a result, 13 endemics were assessed, 11 of these species for the first time. Of the 13 species assessed, two were assessed as Least Concern, five as Vulnerable, four Endangered, one Critically Endangered, and one possibly Extinct. MaxEnt models were used to model the potential distribution of the species assessed and to identify hotspots and priority areas for conservation. The priority areas represent sites of greatest overlap, where 50% of all modelled species overlap in their suitable potential distributions. With this approach, priority areas were identified that can be used in conservation planning, protected area expansion, or other conservation projects. This analysis showed that the highest number of the study species (>7) is concentrated within the Licuati Forest, located south of Maputo in Matutuine District, southern Mozambique. The main threat to this area is charcoal extraction and although none of the endemic species are targeted for charcoal production, the impact of the associated habitat destruction on the endemic species is expected to cause severe declines. It is recommended that studies on the dynamics of the Licuati Thicket vegetation are needed, particularly in terms of the impact of charcoal extraction on the endemics. IV Table of contents ACKNOWLEDGMENTS .................................................................................................................................. III ABSTRACT ..................................................................................................................................................... IV 1. INTRODUCTION ......................................................................................................................................... 1 1.1 Assessing the conservation status of selected Maputaland endemic plant species .......................... 1 1.2 Rationale and objectives ..................................................................................................................... 3 2. METHODS .................................................................................................................................................. 4 2.1. Study area .......................................................................................................................................... 4 2.2. Vegetation of the study area ............................................................................................................. 5 2.3. Data collection ................................................................................................................................... 5 2.3.1 Gathering historical data ............................................................................................................. 5 2.3.2 Sampling current occurrence of the study species in the field ..................................................... 6 2.3.3 Processing specimen data ............................................................................................................ 7 2.4 Assessing conservation status under the IUCN categories and criteria ............................................. 7 2.5 Assessment of the threats to MCE endemic and near endemic species ............................................ 8 2.5.1 Field observations of the threat to the study species ................................................................... 8 2.5.2 Analysis of the forest cover changes for the period from 2000 to 2014 ....................................... 8 2.5.3 Land cover (in 2013/2014) as a proxy for the assessment of land use impacts in MCE ............. 9 2.5 Species distribution modelling ............................................................................................................ 9 2.5.1 Running the SDM ....................................................................................................................... 11 2.5.2 Identifying areas of greatest species overlap ............................................................................. 11 3. RESULTS ................................................................................................................................................... 13 3.1 The overall distribution of selected 13 endemic plant species based on herbarium data and the 2015 field survey findings ....................................................................................................................... 13 3.2 The main threats to MCE endemic and near endemic plants .......................................................... 15 3.2.1 Field observations of the threat to the study species ................................................................. 15 3.2.2 Analysis of the forest cover changes for the period from 2000 to 2014 ..................................... 19 3.2.3 Land cover (in 2013/2014) as a proxy for the assessment of land use impacts in MCE ........... 19 3.2.4 Summary of the main threats to the MCE endemic and near endemic plant species ................