Comprehensive Housing Market Analysis for Raleigh

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Comprehensive Housing Market Analysis for Raleigh COMPREHENSIVE HOUSING MARKET ANALYSIS Raleigh, North Carolina U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development Office of Policy Development and Research As of December 1, 2016 Summary Economy homes (Table 1). The 1,900 homes Housing Market Area The economy of the Raleigh HMA currently under construction and a has significantly improved since 2011 portion of the 16,000 other vacant after the number of nonfarm payrolls units that may reenter the market will declined during 2009 and 2010. Dur- satisfy some of the demand. Person Vance Warren Halifax ing the 12 months ending November Granville 2016, nonfarm payrolls increased by Rental Market Franklin 18,200 jobs, or 3.1 percent, from the Rental housing market conditions in Orange Durham Nash previous 12-month period, to 598,000, the HMA currently are balanced, with and the unemployment rate decreased Edgecombe an overall estimated vacancy rate of Wake Wilson from 4.8 to 4.3 percent. High-skilled 5.5 percent, down from 8.6 percent in Chatham technical and professional employ- April 2010. The apartment market is Lee Johnston ment is the foundation of the local also balanced, with an apartment Greene Harnett Wayne economy. During the 3-year forecast vacancy rate of 4.2 percent in the third period, nonfarm payrolls are expected Lenoir quarter of 2016 (MPF Research). During Cumberland Sampson Duplin to increase by an average of 17,100 jobs, the forecast period, demand is expected The Raleigh Housing Market Area or 2.9 percent, annually. for 9,650 new market-rate rental units (HMA) includes Franklin, Johnston, (Table 1). The 4,000 units currently and Wake Counties in central North Sales Market under construction will satisfy some of Carolina and is coterminous with the The sales housing market in the the forecast demand. Raleigh, NC Metropolitan Statistical HMA is currently balanced, with Table 1. Area (MSA). The HMA and the nearby an overall estimated sales vacancy Housing Demand in the Raleigh HMA During the cities of Durham and Chapel Hill rate of 1.5 percent, down from 2.5 Forecast Period are often referred to as the “Research percent in April 2010. During the Raleigh HMA Triangle” because of the presence of 12 months ending November 2016, large research universities in each city. Sales Rental existing home sales totaled 22,300, up Units Units The city of Raleigh, in Wake County, is 2 percent from the 12 months ending Total demand 29,100 9,650 the state capital and economic base of November 2015, and the average sales Under construction 1,900 4,000 the HMA. price in creased 9 percent to $254,300 Notes: Total demand represents estimated production necessary to achieve a balanced (Core Logic, Inc., with adjustments market at the end of the forecast period. by the analyst). New home sales Units under construction as of December 1, 2016. A portion of the estimated 16,000 Market Details increased 5 percent to 6,900, and the other vacant units in the HMA will likely average price was up 2 percent to satisfy some of the forecast demand. The Economic Conditions ............... 2 forecast period is December 1, 2016, to $326,700. During the next 3 years, December 1, 2019. Population and Households ..... 6 demand is expected for 29,100 new Source: Estimates by analyst Housing Market Trends ............ 7 Data Profile ............................. 12 Economic Conditions 2 he foundation of the economy organizations exemplified in the Tof the Raleigh HMA is a highly Research Triangle Park (RTP), one of educated workforce. The percentage the premier research and development of adults in the HMA with bachelor’s corporate parks in the nation. RTP, degrees or higher is 44.4 percent com- which is in an unincorporated area pared with 30.3 percent in the nation west of the city of Raleigh, is home (2015 American Community Survey), to more than 200 organizations that making the HMA the seventh most- employ a combined 50,000 people. highly educated of the 100 largest Major tenants include International YSIS MSAs in the nation. North Carolina Business Machines (IBM) Corpora- State University (NCSU) is the largest tion, the largest private employer in ANAL university in North Carolina, with an the HMA with 10,000 employees enrollment of 31,000, and has an an- (Table 2). Cisco Systems, Inc., and nual economic impact of $3.3 billion GlaxoSmithKline plc., with approxi- in Wake County (Economic Model- mately 5,500 and 2,600 employees, ing Specialists). NCSU is in Raleigh respectively, also maintain locations and is one of the largest employers in at RTP. Many firms at RTP are in the the HMA; Duke University and the financial activities and information University of North Carolina-Chapel sectors, which directly account for a Hill are in the adjacent Durham- small percentage of the HMA jobs Chapel Hill, NC MSA. Employment but which predominately create at NCSU, which is included in the high- wage jobs that support the local government sector, increased by an economy. Fidelity Investments, a average of 210 employees annually, financial institution, expanded its or 2.6 percent, from 2013 through software development workforce in COMPREHENSIVE HOUSING MARKET 2015, the most recent year of data the RTP by 600 during 2016. These availability. NCSU’s presence in the job gains helped offset declining em- HMA leads indirectly to job growth ployment at GlaxoSmithKline, where through the founding of companies employment at RTP declined from a like SAS Institute Inc., which began high of approximately 5,000 in 2010 as a research project at the university to only 2,600 currently. Raleigh, NC • and currently employs 5,225 people in The HMA entered the 21st century the HMA. The economy of the HMA with sluggish economic growth fol- benefits from the partnership of edu- lowing the collapse of the dot-com cational, corporate, and government bubble; nonfarm payrolls decreased Table 2. Major Employers in the Raleigh HMA by an average of 0.2 percent from 2001 Number of through 2003. However, the local Name of Employer Nonfarm Payroll Sector Employees economy began to grow rapidly as State of North Carolina Government 36,800 the national economy improved, with International Business Machines Corporation Information 10,000 North Carolina State University Government 8,725 nonfarm payroll growth averaging WakeMed Health & Hospitals Education & health services 8,425 4.3 percent from 2004 through 2007. Cisco Systems, Inc. Information 5,500 Economic growth during the period Rex Healthcare Education & health services 5,300 SAS Institute Inc. Information 5,225 supported high levels of in-migration, Duke Energy Transportation & utilities 3,700 which caused further economic Fidelity Investments Financial activities 2,900 growth through increased residential GlaxoSmithKline plc. Education & health services 2,600 Notes: Excludes local school districts and governments. Includes firms located in the construc tion and tax revenues. During Research Triangle Park. the 2004-through-2007 period, the Sources: Raleigh Chamber of Commerce; analyst Economic Conditions Continued 3 mining, logging, and construction sec- the sector accounted for only 7 percent tor grew by 2,400 jobs, or 6.8 percent, of all payrolls in 2008. Declining resi- annually while the local government dential and commercial construction subsector added 2,200 jobs, or 6.4 caused the concentration of job losses percent, annually. In 2008, nonfarm in the sector. Job growth returned in payroll growth slowed to 1.1 percent 2011, with an increase of 9,500 jobs, as the nation entered recession and or 1.9 percent, then accelerated to an residential permitting sharply declined. average increase of 18,000 jobs, or 3.4 percent, from 2012 through 2015. Economic conditions in the HMA YSIS Payroll growth during that period have improved every year since 2011, was broad-based, with all economic after the number of nonfarm payrolls ANAL sectors except the government sector declined by an average of 11,100 jobs, growing at least 1 percent annually. or 2.1 percent, a year during 2009 and 2010. Approximately 43 percent of the During the 12 months ending Novem- job losses in the HMA during 2009 and ber 2016, the number of nonfarm 2010 occurred in the mining, logging, payrolls increased by 18,200 jobs, or 3.1 and construction sector, even though percent, from the previous 12 months, to 598,000. The professional and busi- Table 3. 12-Month Average Nonfarm Payroll Jobs in the Raleigh HMA, by Sector ness services sector, the whole sale and retail trade sector, and the leisure and 12 Months Ending Absolute Percent hospitality sector led growth (Table 3). November November Change Change 2015 2016 The unemployment rate during the 12 Total nonfarm payroll jobs 579,800 598,000 18,200 3.1 months ending November 2016 was Goods-producing sectors 67,000 67,000 0 0.0 4.3 percent, down from 4.8 percent Mining, logging, & construction 33,100 33,400 300 0.9 during the previous 12-month period. COMPREHENSIVE HOUSING MARKET Manufacturing 33,900 33,600 – 300 – 0.9 Service-providing sectors 512,800 531,000 18,200 3.5 The current unemployment rate is less Wholesale & retail trade 91,000 94,500 3,500 3.8 than the average rate of 8.5 percent Transportation & utilities 12,200 12,400 200 1.6 Information 19,600 20,100 500 2.6 annually from 2009 through 2011 but Financial activities 29,400 29,600 200 0.7 remains higher than the previous low, Professional & business services 109,000 115,400 6,400 5.9 which averaged 3.8 percent from 2005 Education & health services 69,100 71,300 2,200 3.2 Leisure & hospitality 64,400 67,800 3,400 5.3 through 2007.
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