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The Structural Transformation Process: Trends, Theory and Empirical Findings Module 1 The structural transformation process: trends, theory, and empirical findings 1 The structural transformation process: trends, theory, and empirical findings 1 Introduction evolution of development thinking with regard to structural transformation and offers an overview module The quest for economic development is among of some of its main schools of thought. The review 1 Following the International the primary objectives of nations. Improving peo- of the theoretical literature is complemented by Standard Industrial Classifica- ple’s well-being and socio-economic conditions is a review of the empirical literature on the criti- tion (ISIC), Revision 4 (http:// therefore one of the crucial challenges facing pol- cal components of structural transformation and unstats.un.org/unsd/cr/ registry/regcst.asp?Cl=27), we icymakers and social scientists today. Every year, on its impact on the overall process of economic use the word “sector” to refer aid is disbursed, investments are undertaken, growth and development. The last part of the to agriculture, industry, and policies are designed, and elaborate plans are de- module focuses on the role of structural transfor- services. Some authors also vised to achieve this goal, or at least to get closer mation in social and human development. It dis- refer to them, respectively, as to it. What does it take to achieve development? cusses the empirical literature on the relationship the primary, secondary, and tertiary sectors. These three What distinguishes high-achieving economies between structural transformation, employment, sectors can be further disag- from economies struggling to converge towards poverty, and inequality. It also provides an original gregated into “industries”. For high-income levels? analysis on the relationship between structural example, the industrial sector transformation and human development, as re- includes the following indus- During their economic take-off, the economies flected in the Millennium Development Goals tries: manufacturing, mining, utilities, and construction that today are considered advanced were all (MDGs). The module concludes with exercises and (the latter three are also able to diversify away from agriculture, natu- discussion questions for students. called non-manufacturing ral resources, and the production of traditional industries). Within most of manufactured goods (e.g. food and beverages, At the end of the module, students should be these industries, it is possible garments, and textiles). Thanks to productivity able to: to further distinguish branches. For example, within enhancements in agriculture, labour and capital manufacturing, one can progressively shifted into manufacturing and • Explain how patterns of structural transfor- distinguish branches such as services, resulting in increases in overall produc- mation in developing countries and regions food processing, garments, tivity and incomes. By contrast, countries that have evolved over time; textiles, chemicals, metals, today are considered less advanced have failed • Describe and compare main theories on the machinery, and so on. The distinction between sectors, to achieve a similar transformation of their pro- role of structural transformation in socio-eco- industries, and branches is es- ductive structures and have remained trapped at nomic development; sential in very heterogeneous low and middle levels of income. For example, ag- • Describe main indicators of structural trans- sectors such as industry and riculture still plays a central role in sub-Saharan formation and use different empirical meth- services, but loses importance Africa, accounting for 63 per cent of the labour ods to calculate them; in the agricultural sector, which is characterized by force, and thus is at the core of that region’s de- • Identify main sources of labour productivity more homogenous producti- velopment challenge today. The gradual process and employment growth; and vity levels. of reallocation of labour and other productive re- • Analyse the relationship between structural sources across economic activities accompanies transformation and socio-economic develop- the process of modern economic growth and has ment. been defined as structural transformation. Sustained economic growth is therefore inextri- 2 Conceptual framework and trends cably linked to productivity growth within sec- of structural transformation tors and to structural transformation. Economic growth, however, can only be sustainable – and This section aims at developing a conceptual therefore lead to socio-economic development – framework to analyse the pervasive processes if these two mechanisms work simultaneously. of structural transformation that have accom- Labour productivity growth in one sector frees panied modern economic growth. To this end, labour, which can then move to other more pro- it defines structural transformation and dis- ductive sectors. This transformation in turn con- cusses how it happens, what it entails, how to tributes to overall productivity growth. Consider- measure it, and what structural transformation able theoretical and empirical literature studies trends countries have followed. and tries to explain these phenomena. 2.1 Definitions and key concepts This module aims to present the mechanics of the process of structural transformation and provide Also denoted as structural change, structural readers with the theoretical and empirical instru- transformation refers to the movement of labour ments to understand them. It first defines a con- and other productive resources from low-produc- ceptual framework for the analysis of structural tivity to high-productivity economic activities. transformation, based on the stylized facts that Structural transformation can be particularly emerge from both historical and recent patterns beneficial for developing countries because their of structural transformation. It then examines the structural heterogeneity – that is, the combina- 4 The structural transformation process: trends, theory, and empirical findings 1 tion of significant inter-sectoral productivity omy. To get figures by income, average (weighted) gaps in which high-productivity activities are few labour productivity is computed for all countries module and isolated from the rest of the economy – slows in the same income group. As the figure shows, down their development.1 productivity gaps are highest at low-income lev- els. In particular, non-manufacturing industries Structural heterogeneity in developing econo- (i.e. utilities, construction, and mining) are the mies is well illustrated in Figure 1 which shows most productive activities: due to their high capi- relative labour productivities in agriculture, in- tal intensity, labour productivity tends to be very dustry (manufacturing and non-manufacturing high. At higher-income levels, manufacturing industries), and services averaged over the period becomes increasingly more productive, reaching from 1991 to 2010 and measured against income the productivity levels of non-manufacturing in- levels in 2005. Relative labour productivity is com- dustries. With development, productivity levels puted as the output-labour ratio (labour produc- tend to converge. tivity) of each sector and that of the whole econ- Figure 1 Relative labour productivity by sector, 1991–2010 Low- and lower- Upper-middle High-income middle income income 4 Non-manufacturing indutries age = 1) er 3 Manufacturing av total Services 2 Agriculture oducctivity (index, 1 Labour pr 0 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 Income level (in 2005 PPP dollars) Source: UNIDO (2013: 26). Note: Pooled data for 108 countries, excluding natural-resource-rich countries. PPP: purchasing power parity. Economic activities also differ in terms of the negative relationship between differences in in- strength of their linkages with the rest of the ter-sectoral productivity and average labour pro- economy. In developing economies, the weak ductivity has recently been demonstrated by Mc- linkages between high- and low-productivity Millan and Rodrik (2011). Their evidence, reported activities that make up the bulk of the economy in Figure 2, suggests that a decline in structural reduce the chances of structural transformation heterogeneity is usually associated with a rise in and technological change. The existence of a average productivity. 5 The structural transformation process: trends, theory, and empirical findings 1 Figure 2 Relationship between inter-sectoral productivity gaps and average labour productivity, 2005 module 0.25 tries NGA 0.20 MWI SEN ETH KEN riation in sector labour 0.15 ZMB va BOL GHA CHN THA VEN of BRA COL KOR nt IDN KOR PER oductivity within coun PHL 0.10 CHL TWN NLD IND DNK HKG pr ficie MEX TUR SGP UKM ZAF SGP oef ESP JAP USA C CRI MUS ITA SWE 0.05 FRA 7891011 Log of average labour productivity Source: McMillan and Rodrik (2011: 57). Note: The productivity gap, which is the variable on the vertical axis, is measured by the coefficient of variation of the log of labour productivity across nine activities: agriculture; mining; manufacturing; utilities; construction; wholesale and retail trade; transport and communication; finance, insurance, real estate; and business services; and community, social, personal, and government services. Labour productivity is computed as the ratio between industries’ value-added and employment levels. The coefficient of variation measures how much variability is observed in the data. It is calculated as the ratio of the standard deviation
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