Green Gas Limited: Long Term Rating Upgraded to [ICRA]AA(Stable); Short Term Rating Reaffirmed; Rated Amount Enhanced

June 07, 2019 Green Gas Limited: Long term rating upgraded to [ICRA]AA(Stable); Short term rating reaffirmed; rated amount enhanced Summary of rating action Previous Rated Amount Current Rated Instrument* Rating Action (Rs. crore) Amount(Rs. crore) Rating upgraded to [ICRA]AA Proposed Term Loan 500.00 500.00 (Stable) from [ICRA]AA-(Stable) Short term Non-Fund Based 140.0 240.0 [ICRA]A1+ reaffirmed Total 640.00 740.00 *Instrument details are provided in Annexure-1 Rationale The rating upgrade take into account the healthy financial and operational performance in FY2019 as well as the expanding distribution network in existing and new geographical areas (GAs)which would lead to increase in scale of operations of the company in the medium term. Further, GGL had undertaken significant capacity addition during FY2019 in terms of CNG stations as well as PNG connections for all segments. As a result, GGL has witnessed significant growth in scale of operations evident by 18.2% YoY revenue growth in FY2019. Moreover, with CNG sales continuing to contribute larger share of revenue, the profitability of the company is expected to remain robust going forward as CNG is a high margin segment for the company. The ratings also factors in strong promoter profile (Indian Oil Corporation Limited-IOCL-rated [ICRA]AAA(Stable)/[ICRA]A1+ and GAIL (India) Limited-GAIL-rated [ICRA]AAA(Stable)/[ICRA]A1+) which has demonstrated track record of providing managerial and operational support to the company. For any expansion in the existing and new geographical areas, ICRA expects the promoters to provide equity support to the company, if required, to maintain healthy financial profile. ICRA notes that the company has also won the authorisation for two new GAs (Unnao and Faizabad and Sultanpur both in UP) Geographical Area (GA) in the ninth round of bidding conducted by Petroleum & Natural Gas Regulatory Board (PNGRB). The total performance bank guarantees for the new GAs is Rs. 83 crore. The company is planning a capex of Rs 25-30 crore every year for the next three years for the development of CGD networks and expects to achieve volumes 0.4-0.5 mmscmd over the next five years in the new GAs. The minimum work programme includes 2 CNG Stations, 4000 household connections and 350 inch km of steel pipeline for Unnao and 4 CNG Stations, 3000 household connections and 150 inch km of steel pipeline for Faizabad and Sultanpur to be executed over a period of eight years. ICRA believes that the minimum work programme and capex requirements are moderate and given the experience of the company in executing CGD projects, its increasing cash accruals and support from promoters, it should be comfortably placed in meeting its commitments. Nevertheless, ICRA has also taken note of the company’s interest in bidding for additional cities in further rounds of competitive bidding for CGD networks. If GGL were to be a successful bidder for any of the new cities put up for bidding by the regulator, ICRA will evaluate the impact of the same on the credit risk profile of the company. The ratings also takes into account the favourable demand outlook for Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) vis-a-vis alternate fuels, current marketing exclusivity for Lucknow (up to 2021), Unnao, Faizabad and Sultanpur (upto 2026), infrastructure exclusivity in Lucknow (up to 2031), Agra (up to 2029), Unnao Faizabad and Sultanpur (upto 2043) , favourable regulatory support for CNG and domestic Piped Natural Gas [PNG(d)] segment evident in allocation of domestic gas to meet the entire demand under the segments and the company’s secure gas tie-up with GAIL to meet its existing natural gas demand. There has been a significant push by GoI towards use of CNG as a vehicular fuel to reduce pollution and reliance on petrol and diesel as preferred fuels. In-line with the same, GoI has ensured low price domestic gas allocation to meet 1 the entire CNG demand. The rating also factors in healthy financial risk profile characterised by healthy return indicators, robust capitalisation and coverage indicators owing to nil debt. The ratings are however constrained by the susceptibility of performance on regulatory framework for CGD entities, material shortfall in achieving the target for PNG (d) connections under the authorisation for Lucknow and significant capex plans of the company. GGL has lined up significant capex plans for Rs. 250-300 crore per annum for next 2-3 years, which is planned to be funded by debt, internal accruals and equity infusion, if required. While the large scale of the capex and the gestation period associated with build-up of sales volumes, are expected to have some moderating impact on the company’s return and key credit metrics from current levels, especially considering the company’s ambitious plans to increase the penetration of the PNG (d) segment which is a lower margin segment, nevertheless on an absolute basis, these metrics would continue to be healthy due to anticipated moderate leverage levels. ICRA also notes that GGL is significantly behind the Minimum Works Program (MWP) defined in its authorisation for Lucknow and Agra Geographical Area (GA). While the company has represented to PNGRB for rationalisation of the MWP targets, any adverse ruling by PNGRB may result in encashment of performance bank guarantee which though is relatively small (~Rs. 3 crores). Outlook: Stable The Stable outlook reflects ICRA’s expectation that GGL will maintain its EBITDA margins/scm of gas sold, follow a prudent financial policy, characterized by low leverage and good liquidity as well as support from promoters, if required for incurring capex. The outlook may be revised to ‘Positive’ in case of sustained growth in revenue and profitability. The outlook may be revised to 'Negative' if there is deterioration in margins or liquidity position. Key rating drivers Credit strengths Strong parentage being owned by GAIL and IOCL: GGL is a joint-venture set-up by GAIL and IOCL with each owning 49.97% each. The parent companies are dominant players in the oil & gas sector and have extensive experience and understanding of the domestic gas sector. Currently all the board members of GGL are from the parent companies. Any significant dilution in ownership by GAIL or IOCL could be a key rating sensitivity. Favourable outlook for CNG driven by significant cost advantage over liquid fuels and the push by the GoI promoting use of cleaner fuel: The outlook on CNG consumption is healthy due to cost advantage over petrol and diesel. Additionally, the GoI has been pushing for higher usage of clean fuel like CNG in the vehicular usage and PNG (d) in the domestic cooking usage by allocating lower cost domestic gas for these segments. This bodes well for the CGD companies as it ensures availability of natural gas to meet the demand of these segment and enables competitiveness of CNG and PNG against alternative fuels. Consumer mix tilted towards CNG, which is a relatively high margin segment: Nearly 96% of GGL’s sale are derived from the CNG segment which has relatively higher profitability vis-à-vis the PNG segment. As a result, the company has been able to generate healthy profitability with operating margins of nearly 26% and net margins of 15% in FY2019. The operating profit of the company has been increased to Rs. 81.4 crore in FY2019 vis-a-vis Rs 68.2 core in FY2018 owing to an increase in sales volumes and higher sales realisation during the year for CNG. The return indicators have also remained healthy with RoCE at ~28% in FY2019. 2 Protection afforded by the regulations under the PNGRB Act as per which authorised incumbents will enjoy monopoly with regard to network provision, further supported by pre-tax RoCE of 21%: Post the expiry of marketing exclusivity period of 5 years, the PNGRB regulations ensure a normative pre-tax RoCE of 21% for the incumbents through adequate network tariff and compression charges on the regulated assets owing to physical exclusivity of 25 years in place (starting 2021 for Lucknow and 2014 for Agra). Thus, regulations ensure fixed returns post expiry of exclusivity period. Additionally, third-party marketers face entry barriers like investment in CNG stations, tying up firm gas supplies, gas availability at competitive prices etc. Robust credit profile marked by strong networth, healthy cash accruals and nil debt: The credit profile of the company remains robust owing to strong networth driven by healthy cash accruals. The capitalisation and coverage indicators are robust owing to healthy profitability and nil debt on the balance sheet of GGL. Secure gas tie-up with GAIL for its existing operations: GGL’s sales mix comprised of 0.27 mmscmd of CNG sales and 0.01 mmscmd of PNG sales in FY2019. GGL has secured gas tie-up with GAIL gas to meet its entire gas requirement and since most of the sales are derived from CNG, domestic gas allocation for the same results in assured gas supplies. Credit challenges Modest scale of operations: The scale of operations remains moderate vis-à-vis some other large CGD companies as the network penetration has remained lower in the cities. GGL reported operating revenue of Rs. 313.1 crore in FY2019 as against Rs.251.4 crore in FY2018. The company’s CNG network comprises of 49 CNG stations and 67359 domestic PNG connections as on March 31, 2019, which indicate material expansion in the network as reflected by 31 CNG stations and 41,565 PNG (d) connections as on March 31, 2018. The benefits from the recent expansion in the network are likely to accrue over the medium term, which may help the company to expand its volume and revenue base.

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