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Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources in the Mekong-Lancang River Basin: the Role of Hydropower Projects in Minimizing Associated Uncertainty and Risks

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Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources in the Mekong-Lancang River Basin: the Role of Hydropower Projects in Minimizing Associated Uncertainty and Risks Climate change impacts on water resources in the Mekong-Lancang River Basin: The role of hydropower projects in minimizing associated uncertainty and risks Project Working Paper No.1 i Table of Contents EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .................................................................................................................................. 1 PART I: INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................................................ 4 1. Background ....................................................................................................................................... 4 2. Types and functions of hydropower projects ................................................................................... 7 3. Goal and outcomes ........................................................................................................................... 8 PART II: ASSESSMENT OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND WATER LEVEL FLUCTUATIONS ON WATER RESOURCES IN MEKONG-LANCANG RIVER ....................................................................................................................... 9 1. Observed climate change .................................................................................................................. 9 1.1. Long-term climate variability and change ................................................................................ 9 1.1. Temperature ............................................................................................................................. 9 1.2. Rainfall .................................................................................................................................... 11 1.3. Tropical storm ......................................................................................................................... 13 1.4. El Niño – Southern Oscillation ................................................................................................ 15 2. Projected climate change................................................................................................................ 15 2.1. Temperature ........................................................................................................................... 15 2.2. Rainfall .................................................................................................................................... 16 2.3. Tropical storms........................................................................................................................ 18 2.4. El Niño – Southern Oscillation ................................................................................................ 19 3. Climate change impact on water resources ................................................................................... 19 3.1. River flows ............................................................................................................................... 19 3.2. Extreme floods and droughts .................................................................................................. 21 3.3. Key water users ....................................................................................................................... 22 3.4. Sea level rise ............................................................................................................................ 24 4. Water level fluctuations .................................................................................................................. 26 PART III: ASSESSMENT ON THE ROLES OF HYDROPOWER DAMS IN MINIMIZING RISK AND UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH CLIMATE CHANGE AND WATER LEVEL FLUCTUTATIONS ............................................. 29 1. Key risks of climate change and uncertainties ................................................................................ 29 2. Key risks of water level and flow fluctuations ................................................................................ 32 ii 3. Roles of hydropower dams in minimizing the risks and uncertainties ........................................... 33 3.1. Roles in minimizing extreme floods ............................................................................................ 33 3.1.1. Broader flood management context ....................................................................................... 33 3.1.2. Managing extreme floods with dams and reservoirs ............................................................. 34 3.1.3. Flood management challenges in the Mekong-Lancang River region .................................... 36 3.1.4. Case studies............................................................................................................................. 37 3.2. Roles in minimizing extreme droughts ....................................................................................... 45 3.2.1. Broader drought management context .................................................................................. 45 3.2.2. Managing extreme droughts with dams and reservoirs ......................................................... 45 3.2.3. Drought management challenges in the Mekong River region .............................................. 46 3.2.4. Case studies............................................................................................................................. 47 3.3. Roles in minimizing water level and flow fluctuations ............................................................... 49 3.3.1. Managing water level and flow fluctuations with dams and reservoirs ................................. 49 3.3.2. Water level fluctuation management challenges in the Mekong-Lancang River Basin ......... 50 3.3.3. Case studies............................................................................................................................. 50 PART V: RECOMMENDATIONS .................................................................................................................... 53 LIST OF KEY AGENCIES CONSULTED .......................................................................................................... 588 REFERENCES .............................................................................................................................................. 600 ANNEX A: Additional information on climate change studies in the Mekong-Lancang River Basin ............ 1 References .................................................................................................................................................... 6 ANNEX B: Analysis of trends in annual river flows of the Mekong River at Chiang Saen in 1960-2017 ....... 1 1. Introduction ...................................................................................................................................... 1 2. Data and methods ............................................................................................................................. 1 3. Trend analysis ................................................................................................................................... 2 4. Limitations......................................................................................................................................... 4 References ................................................................................................................................................ 4 ANNEX C: Analysis of water level fluctuations in the middle reach of the Mekong River in 2014-2017 Chiang Saen, Luang Prabang, Chiang Khan and Khong Chiam ...................................................................... 1 1. Introduction ...................................................................................................................................... 2 2. Methodology ..................................................................................................................................... 3 3. Results ............................................................................................................................................... 4 3.1. Daily, monthly and seasonal water levels ................................................................................. 4 3.2. Daily water level rise and fall rates ........................................................................................... 9 3.3. Large dry season water level fluctuations .............................................................................. 11 iii 4. Limitations....................................................................................................................................... 14 References .............................................................................................................................................. 14 NOTE: This document contains copyrighted material from published literature, mainly figures and tables, and should not be published without removing those materials. All material is cited and referenced in the bibliography. iv EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The objective of this working paper is to support transboundary cooperation towards minimizing uncertainties and risks from climate change in the Mekong Region. This is to be undertaken through management of hydropower projects on the Mekong-Lancang River and the main tributaries, with a key focus on extreme droughts and floods, and rapid water level fluctuations. This project contributes to the goals of the 2018 Phnom Penh
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