Issues & Options February - 2012 Issue: I No: II

US Security Posture Political Te mperature of

Challenges for Inte rnal Security Losing Past Historical Memory

and many more ….

Published By : Vivekananda International Foundation 3, San Martin Marg, Chanakyapuri, New Delhi – 110021, [email protected], www.vifindia.org

Contents

Articles Modernising the Motivational Context

of The Indian Armed Forces India 2021:- Hazarding Guesses- Guessing 58 Hazards - Maj. Gen (Dr.) G D Bakshi 3

- Gopal Krishna Gandhi Lok Pal Saga 66 America’s Defence Priorities in 21st - A Surya Prakash

Century: Obama’s New Strategic 12 Guidelines Briefs - Satish Chandra 80 Nepal Monthly Brief Internal Security – Need for Course

Correction 22

- Ajit Doval Events

Pakistan’s Political Crisis & Civil Military Summary of Report of Joint Working Group - Towards Stability in Relations 36 85 Afghanistan : The Way Forward - Sushant Sareen

China’s P lans for Capturing the High Vimarsha: India- Slowing Down and

Ground in Space 45 Under Heated Economy - Dr. Bibek 90

Debroy - Brig. Vinod Anand

Encircling the Light of Asia: The Lumbini Round Table Discussion on ‘Vision 94 Project 51 India 2025- Issues of Governance VIVEK: Issues & Options February – 2012 Issue: I No: II 2 - Anirban Ganguly

India 2021: - Hazarding Guesses - Guessing Hazards

- Gopal Krishna Gandhi

he hazards that India is Kashmir on 18 September 2011. likely to face over the There occurred a most curious T next ten years may be earthquake, epicentered in the divided broadly into hazards posed Kanchenjungha region of Sikkim, by forces beyond our control and which shook the whole of the Indo- those posed by situations caused Gangetic Plain, with tremors felt by human action, human in going right through to decisions, and public policy. Delhi and beyond. This earthquake has earned the name Seismic hazards of the ‗2011 Himalayan Seismic and atmospheric Earthquake September 2011 was disturbances are increasing in an earthquake month. There were frequency. Suffice to say the a total of 15 earthquakes of Himalaya from Kashmir to Assam significance in India and its have been jolted over the last neighbourhood, as well as, all over decade repeatedly. The brutal one the world in the chain of that shook Kashmir on 8 October, September 2011 earthquake 2005 left 79000 officially dead in Earthquakes do not come on POK and 1500 in Jammu & ceremonial state visits. They come,

*Gopal Krishna Gandhi - Former Governor of West

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kill and leave without trace. They There is indifference in society. are rather like terrorists. But in Only a few know as to how many reality it is not the earthquakes our nuclear reactors are located or that kill, it is buildings collapsing will come up in Zone 4 and 5. in the earthquakes which kill. Narora falls within zone 4 which That‘s why, today earthquakes are houses a nuclear reactor. There is more hazardous than they were lack of urgency in seismic some hundred years ago when preparedness in earthquake- buildings were tsunami policy. If made of less heavy ―aam aadmi‘s‖ There is indifference in society. materials and Only a few know as to how indifference can be fewer people lived many our nuclear reactors are assigned to habits located or will come up in Zone in and around 4 and 5. Narora falls within of mind, should them. zone 4 which houses a nuclear those concerned reactor. There is lack of with augmenting What is a seismic urgency in seismic preparedness in earthquake- our seismic zone? Earthquake tsunami policy. preparedness not zoning divides address that indifference? Should India into 4 seismic zones (zone 2, they not be told in clear terms that 3, 4 and 5) with Zone 5 held to non-scientists can understand, have the highest level of seismicity that are not self explaining but and Zone 2 with the lowest. frank and consultative, as to how Kashmir, Punjab, the western and and why they need not worry Central Himalayan region, the about our reactors being located North- east Indian region and the where earthquakes and tsunami Rann of Katch fall in this zone. are expected to occur. There is,

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after all, such a thing as error. regular tides rise even higher by And that can include errors of another furious Aila, the judgment in the calculation of risk Sunderban will be at huge risk factor. Should they not be told how notwithstanding the life saving and why we need not be auxious mangroves there. about the safety of our reactors? Nothing can be done in this space And, if there is cause for anxiety, and time to check sea level rise or if not alarm, should the nation not to stop cyclone furies in their be taken into confidence about tracks. So, another Aila, say, two, those areas of anxiety? five or ten times stronger than the Erratic winds previous one, the human population of both the Indian and The erratic wind is becoming Bangladeshi Sunderban could regular, the cycle is becoming well gravitate towards the erratic, whether on account of relatively higher , as our climate change or due to other country‘s most desperate climate causes. Cyclones, tornados and refugees. Imagine, what the huge typhoons have become frequent population influx would entail in a visitors. Some years ago, the Mahanagar already past its names of ‗Nargis‘, ‗Katrina‘ and endurance levels in terms of ‗Aila‘ would have invoked only population infrastructure balance. feminine proper nouns, not so The Maladives are thought of as a today. In the coming decade, small country. They are highly global warming will elevate mean concerned about submersion. India sea level to dangerous levels and when a swollen sea, lifted by

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is a big country. Is India thinking is to be welcomed. But this step about it all? needs to be accompanied by certain other steps like an Another area in , independent, transparent safety adjoining the Sunderban, which is audit of our nuclear facilities and merely 30 metres above sea level, these steps should be a part of a is Haripur in Medinipur district. It major re-assessment of is the proposed site of a proposed engineering and nuclear reactor. architectural Those interested Nothing can be done in this styles, and re- may try to find out space and time to check sea level rise or to stop cyclone faishning of the elevations of furies in their tracks. So, construction the reactor another Aila, say, two, five or ten times stronger than the regulations in basements in previous one, the human seismic zones with Fukushima and population of both the Indian and Bangladeshi Sunderban a view to long time those proposed for could well gravitate towards the relatively higher Kolkata, learning from Haripur. as our country‘s most Fukushima. desperate climate refugees. The Prime

Minister‘s announcement that the Atomic Bio- terror and Nano- terror Energy Regulatory Board is to be Risks of nuclear error and terror a more autonomous and are conspicuous. Let us not be independent body to boost unaware of these risks. Use of the accountability and transparency in nerve gas in a Tokyo subway in the functioning of the country‘s 1990s and of the anthrax in 2001 nuclear power plant is timely and

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are well known. The horrors of Pandemics chemical or germ- warfare Blame it on the birds, on pigs or unleashed by non-state players other creations, the fact remains from laboratories, held hostage by that zoonotic diseases, that is them is not a science fiction infective diseases, carried into scenario. It is for real. If nature humans, sometimes through does not have a threshold, then vectors, from animals, can be used terror, especially when twinned to by infernal minds to carry them death inventing creativeness, is into selected human hosts. In an also beyond thresholds. And one early instance of biological warfare cannot believe that politico- armies of the 14th century were technological systems that can recorded catapulting plague- purloin nuclear secrets are not diseased corposes over the walls of incapable of stealing the far enemy towns in order to spread easier-to-transfer technical know the pestilence. how about biological warfare. As regards testing, nuclear weapons Near modern times, plague was capability has to undergo trial- used during the second Sino- testing on the ground, or under it. Japanese war by the imperial In either case, not an easy Japanese army and in 1940, the proposition, one that can be imperial Japanese Army Air hidden from the world. Bio- service bombed Ningbo with chemical devices can be tested plague-carrying fleas. With the clandestinely. international conventions now in place, we can expect that scenario

to belong to past, but what of non-

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state players? But terror apart, with the mucous membrances. The even otherwise, the world is filth that is growing in cities is becoming vulnerable to zoonotic making conditions ripe for pandemics as never before. If some epidemic including plague. common modern diseases, The nightmare of Urbania villages including epidemic diseases, are becoming towns, towns are started out as zoonotic diseases becoming cities, cities are and the bubonic plague, measles, becoming metropolises, smallpox, influenza, HIV, and metropolises are diphtheria came to trying to be second us this way, the The nightmare of Urbania villages are becoming towns, Kuala Lumpur if common cold and towns are becoming cities, not third grade tuberculosis, it is cities are becoming metropolises, metropolises are Singapore without said, may also have trying to be second Kuala requisite funds or started out in other Lumpur if not third grade Singapore without requisite the requistite species. funds or the requistite vision. vision. There are Until recently only those who regard the world of medicine knew of the urbanization as inevitable, leptospirosis. Now with rain those who regard it as a good waters flooding congested cities, thing and those who are simply the infection is transmitted to horrified at the prospect. It would humans by water that has been not have been horrifying if there contaminated by animal urine to would not have been mismatch of come in contact with unhealed what is needed. breaks in the skin, the eyes, or

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Water especially in paddy cultivation? No, on the contrary, emphasis is Of all scarcities that can be laid for increased acreages, high expected to hit hardest will be that water- demanding commercial of water. How many water crops replacing traditional food purifiers can be opened? If the crops. monsoons fail us two years in row, as they are known to do, in cycles The Maoist of ten years of so, Phenomenon the country will be Water use efficiencies in We need not doubt in deep trouble. agriculture are spoken of as a solution and of course they that Maoist Every year the would be essential. But is operatives are need of water is anyone preparing the nation, the farming nation, to start going to take their increasing, not just readying for that shift, attention further in terms of that especially in paddy cultivation? No, on the contrary, emphasis from their rural many more thirsty is laid for increased acreages, and wooded high water- demanding months but that commercial crops replacing strongholds to many more traditional food crops. suburban and industries, heavy urban centers, duty consumers of water. Water especially to our metropolitan use efficiencies in agriculture are showpieces. It requires no spoken of as a solution and of expertise to imagine that they will course they would be essential. be focusing more on the But is anyone preparing the headquarters and encampments nation, the farming nation, to including arrangements for start readying for that shift, manpower transfers of uniformed

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personnel. Government offices as from other sources. It is too early well as the premises of to draw long-term inferences from legislatures need to be extremely the statements recently made by vigilant. Individual officials and the politician Imran Khan who politicians may expect to continue addressed a mass rally in Lahore to face threats of violence and recently. abduction against ransome claims. Looking inward Jihadi groups Legitimacy has

What is the most Anna Hazare‘s movement has taken up position nagging and most touched a very real and very against credibility, raw nerve in our society. Some persistent human parties have governed us well, authority against hazard to our some not so well, some have authencity. The given us great leaders some communal amity, not so. But all have let voice of authority our national corruption spread, take root, in a democracy like smother us. Now, for goodness integrity, and to sake, please, do something ours is no ordinary our progress in about this. We have suffered voice. It has the enough. peace is posed by stamp of popular Jihadi groups from the soil of endorsement obtained in free and Pakistan. One might imagine that fair elections. But the claim of there is a lull in their activities, authencity in a society like ours, is though this could change at this no ordinary claim either, for it has very moment. Let no one be stature of ‗ghee‘ against beguiled. They get their hydrogenated oil, of ‗gur‘ against sustenance, their motivation, their processed sugar. Government manpower, and their weapons work through arteries. Movements

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work through nerves. Neither is to face the social hazards. It is meant to diminish or dispute the right and logical to be optimistic other. about finding the right leadership to take on the hazards being Anna Hazare‘s movement has outlined, especially that of an touched a very real and very raw impatient and angry population. I nerve in our society. Some parties would reiterate that not just have governed us well, some not so because we are a democracy which well, some have given us great keeps throwing up and throwing leaders some not so. But all have out our representatives, but let corruption spread, take root, because we are also a nation of smother us. Now, for goodness mature people who may lose their sake, please, do something about cool, from time to time, but who as this. We have suffered enough. a rule also know how to recover Why is this a hazard? It is a from the debris of their rages. And hazard because freedom without more, we are the people who have responsibility is not tenable. We both skills-how to count and how may look forward to the wisdom of to weigh. age being supported by the energy back to content of youth to give to not just the state apparatus but the social stamina to the body which needs

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America's Defence Priorities in 21st Century: Obama's New Strategic Guidelines

- Satish Chandra

he new strategic guidance for the US Department of As regards the new strategic T Defence, issued on January guidance there was much debate 5th 2012, in an eight page in the Obama Administration on document entitled ―Sustaining US whether or not to make it public. Leadership: Priorities for The forthcoming elections were, 21th Century Defense‖, merits perhaps, an element which careful study. It not only provides impelled the Administration to insights into the emerging global place its essence in the public security challenges as envisaged domain. It would be safe to by the US and its projected assume that there is a more response thereto but also detailed version of this guidance enumerates the primary missions which remains classified. for the US Armed Forces.It may be recalled that the last occasion on The document at the very outset which a similar document was acknowledges that it has been prepared was in 1992, in the developed at an inflection point aftermath of the Gulf War. At that which marks the drawdown of the time it was initially a secret extended operations in Iraq and document. As per leaks to the Afghanistan, is witnessing a media it contemplated preemptive changing geopolitical environment intervention, unilateral action and which is throwing up newer promotion of American values. challenges and is impelling lower Subsequently, a modified and levels of defence spending. toned down version was released to the public. Clearly, while US Defence Forces

* Satish Chandra - Distinguished Fellow, VIF

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are set to become smaller in challenges posed by the major response to the reduction in issues and in some of the regions: defence spending dictated by economic constraints, the strategic 1. Terrorism: Notwithstanding guidance valiantly seeks to project the fact that Al-Qaeda has that they will be better fitted to been rendered ―far less meet the emerging challenge. capable‖ the document Indeed, the President in his recognizes that it, along with transmittal message on the issue its affiliates, continues to was at pains to point out that the remain active in Pakistan, US military would be ―agile, Afghanistan, , flexible, and ready Yemen and for the full range of elsewhere. It, Clearly, while US Defence contingencies‖ and Forces are set to become furthermore, would be the ―best smaller in response to the asserts that violent trained, best reduction in defence spending extremists will equipped fighting dictated by economic continue to force in history.‖ constraints, the strategic threaten the US guidance valiantly seeks to and the ―primary project that they will be better Global Security fitted to meet the emerging loci of these threats Challenges: challenge. are South Asia and The section of the the Middle East.‖ document on the Accordingly, for the global security environment is foreseeable future that US upfront in acknowledging that the will ―take an active approach US is faced with a complex set of in countering these threats‖ challenges and opportunities by monitoring the activities across regions and on issues and of non state threats sets out the manner in which it worldwide, working with should address them. The allies and partners to following is the broad approach establish control over recommended in respect of the ungoverned territories and ―directly striking the most

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dangerous groups and linked to the Asia-Pacific the individuals‖ when necessary. document projects that the (Comment: It is evident, that US will ―rebalance‖ towards the US does not discount it. Existing alliances in the further terrorist attacks region will be emphasized against it and is prepared to and networks of cooperation resort to preemptive action will be expanded with abroad against them if emerging partners in the necessary; The Defence region ―for securing common Policy Guidance of 1992 also interests.‖ The US is contemplated preemptive investing in a long term action but it was more in the strategic partnership with context of India ―to support conventional its ability to serve targets rather The US is investing in a long as a regional term strategic partnership with than terrorist economic anchor India ―to support its ability to outfits. serve as a regional economic and provider of Unfortunatel anchor and provider of security‖ in the y, though the security‖ in the Indian Ocean Indian Ocean US recognizes region. region. The US that Al-Qaeda would maintain and its affiliates will peace in the Korean continue to remain active in Peninsula and deter and Pakistan it stops short of defend provocation from suggesting that the latter North Korea. Peace, has been active in the stability, the free flow of promotion of terrorism and, commerce, and of US therefore, must be dealt with influence in the region will sternly.) depend in part on an ―underlying balance of 2. Asia-Pacific: Since US military capability and economic and security presence‖. China has the interests are ―inextricably‖ potential to affect the US

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economy and security. The guidance India‘s large army growth of China‘s military along with that of China, power must be accompanied Vietnam and the two Koreas by greater clarity of its were pointed out indirectly strategic intent. The US will as the reasons for make the necessary maintaining the US armed investments to ensure it forces presence in East maintains regional access. It Asia/Pacific. India and will work with its allies and Pakistan were then being partners to promote a rules- clubbed together and their based international order nuclear programmes as a that ensures stability and source of concern). encourages the peaceful rise of new powers, economic 3. Middle East: US objectives in dynamism and constructive the region will be aimed at defense cooperation. countering violent extremists, proliferation of (Comment: The US intent to ballistic missiles and of seek to contain China comes WMD, and Iran‘s through loud and clear. It development of a nuclear will do so by enhancing its weapon and ―destabilizing presence in the region and policies‖. In addition, the US working through alliances will uphold its commitment and partnerships including to allies and partner states, new ones in the Asia-Pacific. stand up for Israel‘s security The mention of India‘s role and a comprehensive Middle as a regional economic East peace. In order to anchor and provider of achieve this the US will security is welcome and an maintain a presence in-- and indicator that it is envisaged support of--- partner nations as one of the partners of the in and around the region. US in the region. In contrast 4. Europe: Since most in the 1992US defence policy European countries are now

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producers of security rather Security would be buttressed than consumers thereof the by interoperability. The US military would rebalance intent to forge a closer its investment in Europe relationship with Russia ―moving from a focus on makes good sense both in the current conflicts towards a context of European security focus on future capabilities.‖ and wider global security While maintaining its and is a necessary corrective commitment to allied to US policies which have security the US would work generally been overly hostile with NATO to develop a to that country.) ―Smart Defence‖ approach to pool, share 5. Rest of the and specialize Since most European countries World: The US will capabilities to are now producers of security pursue new meet 21st rather than consumers thereof partnerships with century the US military would like minded challenges. In rebalance its investment in countries the world Europe ―moving from a focus addition a over for sharing the on current conflicts towards a closer focus on future capabilities.‖ costs and relationship responsibilities of would be global leadership. forged with Russia in areas It will seek to achieve its of mutual interest and security objectives through ―encourage it to be a small footprint approaches contributor across a broad relying on ―exercises, range of issues‖. rotational presence, and (While Europe would remain advisory capabilities‖. the principal partner of the (Clearly budget constraints US for the foreseeable future are forcing the US to rethink the latter would not need to its go it alone policies and it make any considerable now seeks to secure its military investment therein. objectives with the help of

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partner countries. Significantly, it has shown 7. WMD Proliferation: Given no indication of reverting the evident threat of WMD into its shell and its proliferation the document interventionist and pro asserts that the Department active approach remains in of Defence would conduct place). ―effective operations‖ to counter it. 6. Global Commons: The (Significantly, there is no document demonstrates the mention of the campaign for clear recognition that access the complete elimination of to the global commons nuclear weapons which once particularly at sea, in space was high on the Obama and cyber space is under agenda and which is threat by both state and non critically important for state actors. It is effectively addressing unambiguous about the US nuclear proliferation. determination with its allies Obviously, this has been and partners to ensure more or less been ―access to and use of the abandoned.) global commons, both by Primary Missions for US Armed strengthening international Forces: norms of responsible behavior and by maintaining 1. Counter relevant and interoperable Terrorism: Defeating Al military capabilities.‖ Qaeda and preventing ( Comment: This constitutes Afghanistan from becoming a a thinly veiled notice to safe haven again (for China from desisting from its terrorism) will be the major disruptive activities in cyber objective. Following the draw space and from its anti down in Afghanistan US access endeavours in the global counter terrorism South China Sea.) efforts will be more widely

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distributed and will be operation elsewhere. For this characterized by a mix of purpose US forces must be direct action and security able to conduct a combined force assistance. arms campaign across all (Comment: The counter- domains—land, air, terror mission, though one of maritime, space and the tasks of the defence cyberspace. Wherever forces was not one of the possible US forces will primary missions in the DPG operate with allied and of 1992; obviously the coalition forces. environment has changed (Comment: This constitutes much since a climb down from then. It may earlier projections, Defeating Al Qaeda and also be noted preventing Afghanistan from most recently in that the becoming a safe haven again the February 2010 current US (for terrorism) will be the Quadrennial policy of major objective. Following the Defence Review, talking to the draw down in Afghanistan US which envisaged global counter terrorism efforts Taliban is not US forces of being will be more widely distributed consistent and will be characterized by a able to fight and with the mix of direct win two major objective of regional conflicts in preventing overlapping time Afghanistan from becoming a frames and is further safe haven for terrorism.) evidence of the intent to down size the military.) 2. Deter and Defeat Aggression: US Forces must 3. Project Power Despite Anti be capable of deterring and Access/Area Denial defeating aggression by an Challenges: In order to deter opportunistic adversary in potential adversaries the US one region even while must be able to project power engaged in a large scale in areas in which its access

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and freedom to operate are constant refrain in the challenged. In this context, document. Finally, it is the document recognizes that evident that though the US states like China and Iran Armed Forces are set to would seek to thwart US decline in numbers they will projection through become more sophisticated ―asymmetric means‖ and and high tech. Indeed, one that proliferation of wonders whether at the end sophisticated weapons and of the day the US will technology would extend to actually be able to effect the non state actors. budget cuts that they hope to Accordingly, the US will achieve.). invest so that its military is able to ―operate effectively in 4. Counter WMD: While the US anti-access and area denial will engage in all possible (A2/AD) environments. This efforts to prevent the will include implementing proliferation and use of the Joint Operational Access WMD, including Iran‘s Concept, sustaining our pursuit of nuclear weapons, undersea capabilities, it would also invest in developing a new stealth capabilities ―to detect, bomber, improving missile protect against, and respond defenses, and continuing to WMD use.‖ efforts to enhance the 5. Operate Effectively in resiliency and effectiveness Cyberspace and Space: The of critical space- based US will work with allies and capabilities.‖ partners and invest in (Comment: Here quite advanced capabilities to clearly the China threat has defend its networks, been signaled along with operational capability, and that from Iran. Jointness in resiliency in cyberspace and the Armed Forces also finds space. a reference and is in fact a

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6. Maintain a Safe, Secure, and of extended deterrence Effective Nuclear remains unchanged some Deterrent: As long as nuclear reduction in the US nuclear weapons exist the US will arsenal is on the cards as maintain a safe, secure and well as a possible further effective nuclear arsenal. Its doctrinal progression in nuclear forces would ―under reduction of salience of any circumstances‖ confront nuclear weapons.). an adversary with the prospect of unacceptable 7. Stability and damage, both to deter Counterinsurgency potential Operations: US adversaries forces ―will no and to assure US forces ―will no longer be longer be sized to US allies and sized to conduct large-scale, conduct large-scale, prolonged stability operations‖ security prolonged stability of the type undertaken in Iraq partners that and Afghanistan. Instability operations‖ of the they can will be addressed by the US type undertaken in count on US through non military means Iraq and security and military to military Afghanistan. commitments. cooperation. Instability will be The addressed by the document, however, asserts US through non military that these goals could be means and military to achieved with a smaller military cooperation. US nuclear force ―which would forces would only consider reduce the number of nuclear limited stability and weapons in our inventory as counterinsurgency well as their role in US operations if required national security strategy.‖ operating alongside coalition (Comment: While the US forces wherever possible. commitment to nuclear They will, of course, weapons and to the concept maintain a presence abroad

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including rotational theatre. In the changed security deployments and training environment, while the US is exercises designed to build determined to project power it will capacity and refrain from engaging in interoperability. operations requiring prolonged (Clearly US military and large scale deployment of its involvement in the Iraq and forces abroad as in the case of Afghan conflicts has hurt Afghanistan and Iraq. Indeed, as and there is disinclination to far as possible in overseas entertain similar large scale operations it will work in concert deployments of the military with allies and partners and for in future.) this purpose there is a stress on the need to develop 8. Defend Homeland and interoperability with partners. Engage in Relief etc The prime areas of interest for the Operations: US forces will of US will be the Asia-Pacific and the course defend US territory Middle East. While across the from attack by state and non board containment of China is a state actors and engage in thinly veiled theme of the humanitarian and disaster Strategic Guidance, the US relief operations as required. investment in India is highlighted as a regional anchor and provider To conclude, the Strategic of security. In sum, the Strategic Guidance for the US Department Guidance is a welcome of Defence envisages a smaller but development and bodes well for more sophisticated US military India. geared to take on all possible adversaries in more than one back to content

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Internal Security – Need for Course Correction

- Ajit Doval

ndia is on a surge; a great sectarian violence, economic destiny awaits it. If there is deprivation or social breakdowns. I one single factor that could Significantly, while the internal negate or retard it, it will be its fault lines provided the basic failure to govern itself. Ensuring munition, the external factor often safety and security of its people, catalyzed the process to make it upholding the rule of law, decisively unmanageable. Failure managing change with order and to address the external factor in ensuring legitimacy of power by internal security management those who wield it shall be critical made the states to lose their components of that governance. capacity to control the avalanche Should it fail to happen, history that initially appeared as a trickle. will once again lament India In the evolving security setting, couldn‘t do what it could. the conventional law and order approach is increasingly proving In post war period, internal to be grossly inadequate to meet security has become primary the new generation Internal source of degradation, Security threats. destabilization and retardation of the states as against external Management of Internal Security aggression. More than 80% of the – New Realities: states during this period faced India, in refurbishing the state failure, disintegration, break architecture of its internal down of their political or security doctrines, systems and constitutional systems caused by policy needs to factor in the internal conflicts and violence. The following: causative factors leading to internal security dysfunction Wars are increasingly ranged from political turmoils, proving to be cost ineffective

*Ajit Doval - Director, VIF

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instruments of achieving countries. It has opened a strategic and political new window of opportunity objectives. With the to weaker powers to take on emergence of Fourth their more powerful Generation Warfare (4GW), adversaries in what we call a fight against an invisible as asymmetric warfare. In enemy, hidden within the these, weaker states can civil society, the bleed their more powerful consequences of wars can be adversaries through Covert highly unpredictable with no Action (CA) at a low cost, in assured guarantee of success a sustained manner and to the stronger. Defeat of claim deniability. Soviet Union by religious irregulars in Afghanistan, In the Indian context, American experiencing in Pakistan that harbours Vietnam, Iraq compulsive and Pakistan has leveraged its hostility against Afghanistan, geographical proximity, radical India but lacks Islam, India‘s soft governance, Pakistani army the capability to nuclear blackmail, military losing out to alliances etc. as tools to achieve its capitalize over India‘s internal political and in security vulnerabilities. strategic etc. are objectives,

illustrative of militarily or the limits of military power otherwise, has made CA as against Fourth Generation an instrument of its state Warfare. policy. Pakistan has leveraged its geographical Civil society has become the proximity, radical Islam, battle grounds whose control India‘s soft governance, is sought both by the violent nuclear blackmail, military anti state groups and the alliances etc. as tools to state. It has given rise to the capitalize over India‘s doctrine of proxy war. internal security Hostile states, to bleed their vulnerabilities. adversaries, are increasingly patronising armed groups (a)Phenomenal up-gradation operating in their enemy in capabilities, resources,

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international linkages and Diminishing efficacy of support bass of violent conventional response groups is another disturbing policies and systems and phenomenon. Countering inability of states to keep them requires security pace with them is another infrastructure much beyond infirmity. The conventional and complex than required response, particularly in for maintaining peace and liberal democracies, treats order in civil society and acts of violence (no matter enforcing the rule of law. how gruesome) as normal With the emergence of large crimes, punishable through well armed and organized due process of law, and not armed groups the states are as acts of war. This facing erosion in their jurisprudence is heavily monopoly over coercive weighed in favour of the power. With the wrong doer and is practically sophisticated weapons inoperable against those who systems, modern operate from foreign lands. communication equipments, Instruments of state, its huge financial resources, laws, police, judicial systems access to modern technology and even militaries, find and support of rogue states, themselves grossly activities of these groups inadequate to prevent, have placed internal security protect and penalize the in a different orbit wrong doers. altogether. Besides above, in India, soft In the Indian context, the governance, political factor Islamic terrorist groups not and corruption have further only are patronized and eaten into the vitals of state supported by Pakistan but power. Political factor has maintain close nexus with started casting its ominous gun runners, drug shadow, both over enactment traffickers, organized crimes, of right laws and their hawala racketeers, currency enforcement with full counterfeiters etc. political will. The withdrawal of Prevention of Terrorist Activities Act

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(POTA), Centre‘s reluctance resources; it has been the slowest, to approve Special Acts if at all, to change. Globally, the against organized crimes in response has been swift and Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh decisive while in India it has been etc. are illustrative of delayed, half hearted and often politicization of internal lacking political will. The systems, security management. doctrines, methodology, laws, empowerment and enablement of (a)Role of non state actors security apparatus have by and like the Media, Non- large remained unchanged. Within Governmental Organizations 48 hours of September 11 (9/11) (NGOs), think tanks, etc., strike, the US took the policy have also added to decision to revamp the whole complexity of the situation. system and bring in the huge new Publicity is the oxygen of infrastructure, concepts and laws terrorism and media to create Department of Homeland inadvertently plays in their Security and institution of hands by giving them undue Director National Intelligence. coverage. As perception President Bush announced that ―It management is an important values individual freedom but aspect of internal security should it get in conflict with management, ability of these supreme national interest, the groups to influence the latter will prevail‖. Instead of public opinion, without any systematic improvements we corresponding responsibility, merely resorted to quantitative only confounds the problem. response hoping that enhanced force level without change in India: Slow to Transform training, systems, equipment etc would be sufficient to counter India is not unique in experiencing terrorism and fight insurgencies. this paradigm shift. What singles it out is the fact that having paid The expenditure on state police the highest price in battling forces and central para military against terrorism, insurgencies forces cumulatively have increased etc. in terms of over 90,000 human in last few years from Rs. 15,092 lives lost and nearly 14,000 crores nearly to Rs. 26,000 crores, security personnel killed and huge depicting an increase over 70%. In drain on its scare financial terrorist and insurgency affected

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areas 22% troops are tied on sponsored covert offensives by duties to protect themselves and hostile powers targeting country‘s other 45% on protecting the VIPs internal fault lines to achieve their and vital installations. With 11% strategic objectives. While force personnel on leave and country‘s democratic polity, training reserves and 5% engaged economic growth, and social on administrative duties; what is transformations are steadily really left to mount field bringing down conventional operations is less than 20%. For threats, except probably the Left want of powerful laws, enhanced Wing Extremism, the external operational level factor has been an intelligence, bold important catalytic political decisions, India‘s internal security factor in promoting lack of new landscape in recent decades terrorism, strategic and has undergone a paradigm insurgencies, shift. The conventional pattern tactical ideas, we , of civil disorders, communal have got entrapped subversion, cyber disturbances, social and in conventional space violations, economic turmoil, political stereotype of currency conflicts etc. have ceased to be numerical response counterfeiting, the nation‘s primary internal to internal Hawala security concerns. They have security. The transactions, been substituted by externally dogma of ‗time- demographic sponsored covert offensives by tested methods‘ has invasion etc. India hostile powers targeting become a doctrine considering its country‘s internal fault lines to to resist change. Comprehensive achieve their strategic National Power objectives. India‘s internal (CNP), has failed security landscape politically and in recent decades has undergone a diplomatically leverage it to its paradigm shift. The conventional best security advantage. pattern of civil disorders, communal disturbances, social and Jehadi Terrorism:- Kashmir and economic turmoil, political Beyond conflicts etc. have ceased to be the nation‘s primary internal security Pakistan which, during the concerns. They have been Afghan war through Western substituted by externally assistance, had acquired

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formidable covert capabilities, re- Muslim population. While sizeable positioned the elaborate population of Afghanistan, infrastructure to bleed and Pakistan and Bangladesh has destabilize India through come under its sway, desperate terrorism. It wanted to replicate attempts are being made to spread Afghan model in Kashmir, hoping its tentacles within India. to make it a theatre of Jehad for Superimposition of this exported all the and force India to variant of Islam constitutes a high a settlement acceptable to potential long term threat for Pakistan. Though it failed to India and will have to be achieve this objective, over the countered – ideologically, years Jehadis have became politically and physically. integral part of Pakistan‘s war- Besides J&K, The 26/11 terrorist action at machine and a low hundreds of Mumbai depicted a new order cost instrument in Muslim youth of lethality in Pakistan‘s its hands to bleed drawn from other unabated covert offensive India. Pakistani parts of the country against India. For almost three researcher Sabina have been trained decades, India has passively Ahmad in her and motivated for accepted such provocations. It report to subversive has failed to retaliate in a International proactive manner that could activities in Crisis Group (ICG) raise costs for Pakistan and Pakistan. A large calculated 11,500 compel it to roll back its anti- number of Pakistani nationals India terrorist infrastructure. Pakistani youth having been killed trained by the ISI in India in terrorist and disguised as operations from 1990 to 2005. This Indians have been positioned as is indicative of the scale and part of an intricately networked intensity of Pakistan sponsored covert apparatus. Mushrooming of Jehadi terrorism. Madrassas and Islamic institutions in large numbers Growth of Jehadi forces, propagating an ideology of hate perceiving India as its target, both and exclusiveness, particularly in in India‘s western and eastern the border areas, is another neighbourhoods, is a serious disturbing trend. An imaginative security and ideological threat policy initiative and counter given India‘s large indigenous

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measures would have to be taken and MCC, along with other to meet this threat. splinter groups, merged together to form the CPI (Maoists). The The 26/11 terrorist action at spatial growth of the LWE Mumbai depicted a new order of thereafter has been meteoric and lethality in Pakistan‘s unabated alarming. Maoists for furtherance covert offensive against India. For of their political objective of almost three decades, India has seizing power through gun have passively accepted such exploited alienations caused by provocations. It has failed to issues like denial of social and retaliate in a proactive manner economic justice to deprived that could raise costs for Pakistan sections of society, large scale and compel it to roll back its anti- displacement of tribal populations India terrorist infrastructure. by major hydro-electric projects India ceded the strategic and and extensive mining in tribal tactical initiative to Pakistan some areas. This has led to their three decades ago and needs a influence rising from 53 Districts course correction before it poses an in 9 states in 2001, to nearly 203 existential threat. India‘s Districts in 18 states by 2010. tolerance threshold should not be Among these the core of unrealistically raised in the insurgency is focused in backdrop of nuclear blackmail as Chattisgarh (Abujmar Region) and Pakistan has its own Jharkhand with significant vulnerabilities many times higher activity levels in Bihar, Andhra than India and in its strategic Pradesh, Maharashtra and Orissa. calculus it cannot ignore the The movement has been threat that India can pose should substantially militarised with the conflict grow beyond a point. 16,000 armed cadres, some 15,000 India also needs to revisit its no assorted weapons (including 900 first use nuclear doctrine. AK-47 Rifles, 200 Light Machine Guns and locally fabricated Rocket Left Wing Extremism: Launchers), over 85 camps where they are able to impart training in Left Wing Extremism has emerged tactics and field craft and strong as country‘s most serious internal financial back up to pay regular security challenge. After its cyclic salaries to members of its so called rise and fall, it assumed serious ‗People‘s Liberation Army‘. proportions after 2004 when PWG

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The Left Wing Extremism not only unemployed but for most embodies many features that jobs unemployable. make the problem intractable. A large inaccessible and scantily However, they have some high governed terrain that is difficult to vulnerabilities as well. dominate or sanitize no matter Illustratively, like most ideology what force levels are pumped is driven movements, Left Wing one major problem. Further, to Extremism is controlled by less their advantage, the Maoists have than a dozen top kingpins and a large alienated population that nearly 30 commanders of its has suffered decades of social and armed cadre. They determine the economic neglect and are easily political line, control the resources susceptible to motivated and design the strategy. The bulk propaganda of the Maoists who of 16,000 odd armed cadres and promise to establish an order that many times more supporters are will deliver justice, freedom from only gullible tribals and poor exploitation, jobs and protection of people misled by vicious their way of life. A corrupt and propaganda, frightened by the gun callous governance further makes or lured by the money. For the the people an easy prey to Maoist leaders, who live in conditions of propaganda. They are able exploit safety and comfort, they are easily all local grievances and conflicts to replaceable commodities. gather support by promising Neutralization of top leaders and different things to different people. activists in four decade long It may range from exploiting caste history of Left Extremism has conflicts in Bihar, resentment invariably led to ideological against landlords in Andhra, dilution, dissensions, and sentiment against forest laws and demoralization giving a blow to practices in tribal areas, their image of invincibility and unemployment among youth or surfacing of doubts about viability Islamic sentiment among sections of the movement to achieve its of Muslims telling them all that goals through violence. At tactical Maoism provided solutions to all level, it has led to struggle for their woes. Availability of large leadership, disruption in sources sums money to pay regular of funding and abandonment of salaries; to their cadres in areas plans in the offing. Further, the where there are large bodies of questioning of top leaders has uneducated and unskilled who are often provided strategic and

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tactical inputs which, when businessmen, contractors, pursued imaginatively, transporters etc. Paradoxically, substantially weakened the increase in government outlays for movement. development activities in affected areas has strengthened them Devoid of its ideological plank the financially as enhanced outlays movement stands reduced to a are not backed up by effective and problem of organized crime. A accountable administrative credible, focused and sustained machinery. Their dependency on psy-war offensive to expose the funds is a vulnerability and it is movement as anti-people will be possible to take series of steps to hard for them to bear. minimize if not totally eliminate it though strong administrative and Money factor is legal actions another important China, with which India has against the fund element that is an uneasy security providers. empowering the relationship, shares a border of Left Wing nearly 1,561 kms with NE North-East: Extremism to raise states. It also has a dubious new cadres, track record of meddling with North East security procure weapons local insurgent groups till mid discourse, of late, and expand their eighties. After a long lull, there has been marked arc of influence. A is increasing evidence of China by good news of freshly recruited reviving its covert offensive in peace engagement youth is being paid the North East. with the rebels, rupees 2,000 to improved security 2,500 per month, which in a cooperation from Bangladesh, poverty stricken area attracts dissensions within insurgent many youth. It is estimated that groups etc. However, external the left wing extremist are able to factor in a region that has 5,215 collect nearly rupees 1200 crore a kms contiguous international year, which is a huge sum of border with other countries and money resource in tribal and only about over 1% with the backward areas. Maoists raise Indian mainland though pivotal is these funds through extortions, being glossed over. External factor collections from corrupt has and will continue to remain a government officials, protection vital factor in our management of money, levies on rich landlords, North Eastern security.

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signed by Muivah, self styled China, with which India has an Prime Minister of NSCN(IM), uneasy security relationship, holding peace talks with shares a border of nearly 1,561 . The letter kms with NE states. It also has a informed Chinese of appointment dubious track record of meddling of Kholose, a Sema Naga, as their with local insurgent groups till permanent representative in mid eighties. After a long lull, China. Chinese welcomed this there is increasing evidence of institutionalized arrangement and China reviving its covert offensive wanted Nagas to keep them in the North East. Chinese informed about (i) Activities and support to the rebel groups has movements of , waxed and waned depending on particularly in Arunachal content and direction of bilateral Pradesh, (ii) Intelligence regarding relationship, their evaluation of activities of Dalai Lama and the strength and grit of people in Tibetans in India and (iii) power in Delhi, viability and Progress of peace talks with India. reliability of insurgent groups etc. Chinese also tasked them to keep It is also noteworthy that track of other NE insurgent whenever assistance from groups and progress of their peace erstwhile , and later parleys with India. One of the Bangladesh, to NE insurgents major responsibilities of Kholose became difficult, the Chinese was procurement of weapons from stepped in to fill in the gap. China.

There are definite indications that, In April 2009, the self styled after a long lull, there is major President of NSCN(IM), Isak policy shift in China. In October, Chissi Swu, leader of group 2007, on the invitation of Chinese talking to India, accompanied by authorities, Anthony Shimray in- Shimray visited China for which charge foreign affairs of the Visa was arranged by the NSCN(IM), visited China and held Chinese intelligence in meetings with Lee Wuen, head of Philippines. They held a high level intelligence of Yunnan province meeting with one Lee and and Chang local intelligence head three senior Chinese intelligence at Dehong Mansi near Kunming in officers. The Chinese while China. Shimray handed over a assuring them of Military letter to the Chinese authorities cooperation, again reiterated their

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earlier requirement regarding linkages of Left Extremists with information abut army movements NE insurgent groups. The in Arunachal, activities of Dalai government in pursuing its policy Lama etc. NSCN(IM) leadership of engaging the rebels in peace subsequently initiated follow up talks needs to display greater actions in Delhi, Dharmshala, clarity of vision, well defined Arunachal Pradesh and objectives and strategic precision. NSCN(IM) headquarters to meet Mistaking the talks as an end Chinese intelligence requirements. rather than means to an end can Steps in the meantime also push India into a self made commenced to ship 1000 weapons strategic trap. While the rebel from South Chinese port of Beihei groups are enhancing their to Cox‘s Bazaar in Bangladesh for capabilities, establishing trans- the NSCN (IM). border linkages, procuring new Paresh Baruah of ULFA after weapons and recruiting new being pressurized by Bangladesh cadres, the government appears to security agencies, also visited be calculating publicity mileage China in 2010. Reports indicate and possible electoral advantages that he led a group of about 80 as their sole gains. This can be a that after receiving training in self defeating strategy. Ruili in Yunnan was provided substantial quantities of weapons. Illegal Immigration: It is significant that ULFA has been a source of procurement of The size geographical location and weapons by Left Wing Extremists porosity of our borders makes and possibility of some of the large illegal migration to India Chinese weapons reaching them from neighboring countries easy. through ULFA channels can not People of all neighbouring be ruled out. countries share at least one important ethnic, religious or Reality of Chinese renewed linguistic commonality with a interest in NE insurgency can not section of the Indian population, be wished away in our security which makes it possible for them calculus. It assumes special import to find easy shelters and go in the back drop of China‘s undetected. Economic emerging aggressiveness, military opportunities afforded by activities in border areas, claims relatively higher economic growth, on Arunachal Pradesh and freedoms of a liberal democratic

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polity, corruption, shortcomings of found new habitations in the Indian political, administrative hinterland areas of the country. and judicial systems etc. have all Most of them have been able to contributed to make illegal acquire identity documents with immigration a major internal local political patronage and security problem. connivance of corrupt officials. The local Muslims in some areas are Demographic invasion from facilitating their settlements and Bangladesh, has already assumed helping them in procurement of alarming proportions. In many of ration cards, identity documents, the bordering districts of Assam jobs and political patronage. and West Bengal it has brought about a total demographic This large scale migration is no transformation, forcing the more only a cause of demographic original change, social inhabitants to sell Economic opportunities conflicts, denial of afforded by relatively higher their lands and economic economic growth, freedoms of a flee. Instead of liberal democratic polity, opportunities and abating, the last corruption, shortcomings of civic amenities to two years have Indian political, administrative our own poor witnessed an and judicial systems etc. have people but has unprecedented all contributed to make illegal become a security immigration a major internal increase in the concern. The security problem. inflow – the new Islamic terrorists migrants becoming from Bangladesh more abrasive and emboldened, readily find local shelters considering their illegal migration throughout the length and breadth almost a matter of right. Subdued of the country. These immigrants though, voices in support of also bring with them deeply greater Bangladesh have started ingrained anti-Indian ideas and surfacing both in Assam and seeds of fundamentalism. The Bangladesh. border is porous and the infiltrators get full support from The illegal immigrants from Bangladesh Border Forces. This Bangladesh, who well exceed 25 unending stream of migrants is million now, are no more confined likely to become much more to bordering states of Assam, West pronounced in the times to come, Bengal, Meghalaya etc. but have given the push factor in

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Bangladesh and the pull factor on population at 1.4 bn will overtake the Indian side. that of China. This translates into one billion people in the working Illegal migration from Pakistan age group that will need to be and Afghanistan is relatively gainfully employed. Any failure small but its security implications will make large sections of are much greater. Pakistan as unemployed youth vulnerable to part of a long-term covert action forces of destabilization, programme, is trying to establish disruption and destruction – both modules in different parts of the indigenous and foreign inspired. country with well trained and Channelised constructively, they highly motivated can catapult India Pak residents into a new power Though, essentially an masquerading as orbit making its economic and not a security Indians. A large human resource issue if left unattended large number of capital in the scale youth unemployment can Pakistanis who ageing world as a have serious security enter India with non-competeable implications. India currently regular visas CNP component for has a population of nearly 1.2 frequently go under many decades bn, 62.9% of which is in ground and become ahead. working age group. By 2026, untraceable. India‘s population profile is likely to grow even younger The total sum of Unemployment in (68.4%in working age group) jobs presently in Youth: and the total population at 1.4 India‘s Public and bn will overtake that of China. private sector Though, essentially (including those in an economic and the unorganized not a security issue if left private sector) work out to barely unattended large scale youth 300-350 million. India‘s economic unemployment can have serious liberalization, so far is only security implications. India producing the miracle of jobless currently has a population of growth. Most Indian industries nearly 1.2 bn, 62.9% of which is in have been imitating the Western working age group. By 2026, corporate model – downsizing the India‘s population profile is likely workforce to maximize the profits. to grow even younger (68.4%in The Jamshedpur Steel plant of the working age group) and the total Tatas that employed 80,000

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workers some three decades ago launched substituting the with a production of 1 million tons conventional educational pattern per annum halved it to just 40,000 that churns out youth who are in the 1990‘s and the output rose educated but unemployable. One to 5 million tons per annum by of the ironies of Indian automation. The plan is to further employment market is that while reduce the work force to just there are large numbers of youth 20,000 but raise the production to with 10 to 16 years of formal 10 million tons per years. While to education, most of the industries achieve global competitiveness and employers find it difficult to India cannot afford to produce at get appropriate manpower that high costs, it at the same cannot hardly requires training of two afford to keep its millions out of a years or less beyond two years job. A paradigm shift in over beyond basic 10 to 12 years of growth strategy is required and schooling. Non inclusive heavy investments need to be done growth, large scale in areas that can create large unemployment, huge income employment opportunities; nearly disparities etc. can be potential 700 million jobs by 2026. Man causes of internal instability and power intensive industries like degradation. In national economic ship building, infrastructure planning the strategico- security projects, rural employment factors need to be given its schemes etc. will have to be deserved importance. accorded high priority. Generation of new and upgradation of existing skills through massive vocational back to content training programmes need to be

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PAKISTAN’S POLITICAL CRISIS AND CIVIL MILITARY RELATIONS

- Sushant Sareen

he latest and arguably the unclear was what would replace most serious crises – the PPP-led dispensation. Would a T memogate and the Bangladesh model be imposed (a contempt of court case against government of technocrats backed Prime Minister Yusuf Raza Gilani by the army and supervised by the – to hit the PPP-led coalition judiciary to set things right over a government in its four years in period of 2-3 years), would it be office appear to have miraculously just a caretaker setup for three blown over, at least for now. At months which would hold elections their height, these two crises and then move aside, would the seemed to be sounding the death army takeover and impose a ‗hard knell of the government. The only coup‘, or would the Pakistani thing that wasn‘t quite clear was establishment come out with some how the final blow would be struck innovative and ingenious – would the government be constitutional scheme to run the dismissed by the Supreme Court, country? As things stand, would the army throw out the however, both the method of government on orders of the deposing the government and the Court, would coalition partners be question of what to replace it with, convinced or coerced to desert the have become superfluous, and it sinking ship of the ruling coalition, now appears as though the current or would top leaders of the government is not only all set to government throw in the towel serve out its term in office, but will under the immense pressure that also oversee a constitutional was being applied? Equally transition, the first in Pakistan's

* Sushant Sareen – Senior Fellow, VIF

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history. memogate scandal and the contempt of court case, daily – the Of course, given that a smaller the time frame for which constitutional transition which any prediction can be made and takes place through an early therefore the greater the chance of general election that is part of a regime change or regime collapse. political deal and normal In other words, when any democratic process is still months prognosis on Pakistan is valid only away, a lot of things – some for the next 24 to 48 hours, it foreseeable, many unforeseen – normally means that change in could go wrong, especially in a government is impending. This is country that lives from crisis to exactly the situation in which crisis. Given the crises ridden Pakistan found itself in the middle nature of Pakistani politics, of January. And yet, surprisingly, predicting the possible future nothing happened. The sudden course of events in Pakistan has cooling down of the political always been a rather perilous temperature has therefore raised venture. In recent years this task many questions about the whys has become even more arduous, and wherefores of the government what with the government being surviving, albeit by the skin of its buffeted by one crisis after teeth. Questions have also arisen another. But in a way, the over the political role and frequency of crises has in itself influence of the army and its become a sort of measure of the ability to manipulate the political state of politics and as such serves system, the durability and as a handy, if also imperfect, tool longevity of the democratic order, for analysing the possible future the role played by new players like trajectory of events. the media and the judiciary, and The normal rule of thumb in last but not the least, the extent to Pakistan is that the faster the which the external players frequency of crises – from a continue to determine the outcome bimonthly crisis to a monthly to a of the domestic political crises in weekly and, at the peak of the Pakistan.

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Speculation is rife over what made army‘s poor image in the public the all powerful military eye has never stopped it in the establishment pipe down so past from carrying out a putsch – quickly after all the aggressive for instance, Gen Pervez statements by the military Musharraf‘s coup took place just spokesman – he had warned the months after the Kargil debacle – government of ‗grievous compared to the current consequences‘ after the Prime government, the army not only Minister accused the army and ISI comes out smelling of roses (at chiefs of violating the law and least as far as the media, most of constitution by submitting their it right-wing, reactionary and affidavits to the urban Punjab Supreme Court in based, is For an army that can mount a the memogate case coup with merely ‗one jeep and concerned) but has without the two trucks‘ (as described so also been projected permission of the evocatively by the former once again as the government. For an Prime Minister Chaudhry sole saviour that army that can Shujaat Hussein) to back off will rescue the with a whimper is somewhat mount a coup with country from the inexplicable especially when it merely ‗one jeep seemed all set to boot out the ‗depredations‘ of and two trucks‘ (as government. the ‗democratically described so elected‘ evocatively by the government. former Prime Minister Chaudhry Moreover, since the army would Shujaat Hussein) to back off with most probably have acted in a whimper is somewhat concert with the judiciary to get inexplicable especially when it rid of the government, it would not seemed all set to boot out the have to run around seeking government. To attribute the judicial or legislative legitimacy army‘s failure to overthrow the for its action against a lawfully government to its poor image is to constituted government. miss the point entirely. Quite The cynical explanation for the asides from the fact that the army not going for the kill is that

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it had more or less achieved what why then did the army stop short it wanted – i.e. getting rid of of getting its prey? Hussain Haqqani and shaking up Another reason often proffered for the government in order to make the army wanting to see the back it even more dependent on the of the PPP government is its support of the army so that it terrible governance record which doesn't move its little finger by most accounts has virtually without the army‘s nod (especially brought Pakistan to the brink of on issues like relations with US, financial bankruptcy and Afghanistan and India and in administrative paralysis. But the deciding the problem with this national policy on proposition is that the War on Terror The Pakistani political and economic analyst Dr Farrukh by keeping the and nuclear Saleem has succinctly summed government assets). But this up the army‘s confusion: ―the unsettled ever argument doesn't GHQ is surely being successful since it has come to really wash easily in keeping the PPP teetering power, the army simply because the on the brink all the time. But has only government was then the GHQ must be the only contributed to the already totally beneficiary of this living on the brink because this extreme dysfunction of the subservient to the uncertainty is just killing government and army on all the everyone else in the country‖. has thus pushed issues listed above the country to the and was going out of the way to edge of the precipice. Clearly, if stay on the right side of the top there any truth in this proposition brass. Haqqani was at best an then it means that the army is irritant and there was no need to totally befuddled since it is then create an unseemly and messy pursuing completely contradictory drama of the memogate variety to objectives. On the one hand it see his back. If anything, Haqqani wants to keep the government was only a pawn in the memogate unsettled so that it can call the drama; the target was Zardari. So shots; on the other hand it wants the government to deliver on

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governance which is not possible if rid of the government. Another the government is continuously explanation is that the destabilised and not allowed to international community would take bold domestic and foreign have not taken kindly to any policy decisions. The Pakistani military takeover. But here again, political and economic analyst Dr any diplomatic repercussions Farrukh Saleem has succinctly would have been at worst short summed up the army‘s confusion: term. The Americans have so ―the GHQ is surely being much at stake in the Afpak region successful in keeping the PPP that they would have easily teetering on the brink all the time. reconciled to regime change by the But then the GHQ must be the army. And if such change came only beneficiary of this living on about under the veneer of some the brink because this extreme kind of constitutionality, uncertainty is just killing everyone howsoever dodgy, the US would else in the country‖. have not belaboured over the regime change for very long and Notwithstanding the confused and the rest of the international contradictory objective of the community would have fallen in , the question still line. remains as to why the army backed off from going in for the A third explanation is that better kill when the noose was all set sense prevailed over the army and around the neck of the civilian made it hold its hand. Some government? There are a few analysts believe that the army explanations doing the rounds. realised that deposing the One explanation is that the army government would take the entire did not want to make a political political system back to square one martyr out of the PPP yet again. and would end up creating a While there is some logic in this bigger political and constitutional argument, it would have at worst mess than what the country was come into play after a few years. confronting currently. The Army is In the immediate at least the also said to have realised that it ‗establishment‘ would have gotten was already overstretched because

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of its involvement in fighting the experienced. In the final analysis, ‗bad‘ Taliban and its security therefore, instead of resorting to commitments on the Eastern front messy political engineering, a with India, and was therefore not better option for the army was to really in any position to allow normal political processes to administer the country directly. work themselves out and throw up Compounding the problem was the solutions. fact that unlike the past when it The long and short of the army‘s found ready and willing political predicament is that its ability to allies, this time around, the manipulate the political system situation was not very conducive seems to have been to a prolonged drastically reduced. military takeover. The Army is also said to have While the reasons Not only would no realised that it was already for this probably lie major political overstretched because of its in all of the above party back a involvement in fighting the listed explanations, military dictated ‗bad‘ Taliban and its security these can be regime, the commitments on the Eastern front with India, and was distilled into two, judiciary too would therefore not really in any perhaps three, resist such a position to administer the broad categories: a) dispensation. At country directly. lack of best what the army acceptability could hope for was among both political forces as well support for a caretaker as at the institutional level government that would hold (judiciary); b) lack of capability general elections. But such an (not so much in terms of election, unless rigged to produce overthrowing a government but a ‗desirable‘ result, would throw more in terms of running a up its own set of uncertainties in government); and finally, c) a terms of a hung parliament which combination of the above two. The would once again lead to the sort implications of these are: a) the of political and administrative army has failed to build political dysfunction that is currently being proxies and without them the

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army will not have any real More than anything else, it is this interface with the people of the new tentativeness in the army country and could thereby end up that has helped the Zardari/Gilani alienating the people from the government to pull through the state in addition to earning latest set of crises. But clearly, opprobrium for undertaking tough while the government might have economic reforms that make survived, it has been grievously economic conditions worse before damaged and its ability to function they get better, if at all; b) if the effectively and provide a modicum army finds itself incapable of of governance for the balance of its running the country then it means term has been severely that Pakistan is far more compromised. Even though the ungovernable and probably much divide between the government closer to collapse or failure than and the military and judiciary has previously imagined; and c) a been papered over for now, the combination of lack of capability army is seething with rage and the and acceptability means that like judiciary remains hostile making every other institution, the the relationship between the Pakistan army‘s effectiveness has various institutions extremely been severely reduced and its accident prone. Under these reputation as a coherent and circumstances, it is difficult to see credible force that also serves as how the current state of the final arbiter and decider of dysfunction and dangerous drift in Pakistan's political landscape is the affairs of state can be not supported by its actual sustained for another six months strength. The weakening of the (the time frame being considered army doesn't necessarily mean for an early election) or another that democracy is finally here to year (when its constitutionally stay; On the contrary, it means mandated term ends). The that the proverbial last bastion for problem however is that on the staving off anarchic conditions in one hand there is no clear flight- the country has also started path for getting rid of the tottering. government and on the other hand

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the ‗establishment‘ is finding it In other words, if the PPP wins very difficult to tolerate, much less the next election, it will have afford, having the current achieved its objective, but if it dispensation continue in office for loses it will leave behind such a another 6 months or so. mess that the next government will spend all its energies in trying As far as the PPP government is to clean it up and also earn the concerned, its political strategy for opprobrium that accompanies any the coming months is clear: in the tough reform measure. first stage it wants to get a majority in the Paradoxically, Senate elections even though most (due on March 2) As far as the PPP government analysts have which will give it a is concerned, its political practically written strategy for the coming months bit of a off the the PPP is clear: in the first stage it stranglehold over wants to get a majority in the government in the the legislative Senate elections (due on March next elections, the process for the next 2) which will give it a bit of a party leadership is three years; in the stranglehold over the showing a level of second stage it legislative process for the next self-assuredness three years; in the second wants to pass the and confidence that stage it wants to pass the annual budget (due annual budget (due in doesn't quite gel in May/June). This May/June). with the political will be an election grapevine. Unless year budget and despite the this is pure hubris that comes with precarious fiscal situation, the being in power, the only PPP government is expected to explanation for such confidence is throw fiscal prudence to the winds that the party leadership is and announce massive freebies to convinced that if it can largely cement its constituency. This retain its traditional support base, means that regardless of who wins then it might well have an outside the next elections, there will be a chance of at least winning enough massive fiscal hole waiting to be seats to play a pivotal role in the plugged by the next government. next parliament. This calculation

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is based on a split in the father-in-law, ; opposition vote between Nawaz if his maths fails, then he might Sharif‘s PMLN and the rising star well end up presiding over what of Pakistani politics, Imran Khan. the Pakistan army has wanted to The only fly in the ointment is do for decades and failed – the that although Asif Zardari is a demise of the PPP. past master in court intrigues, he is yet to prove that he is also a vote catcher who can harvest the back to content PPP‘s traditional vote. If his arithmetic works in the elections, Zardari could well emerge as the most significant politician after his

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China’s Plans for Capturing the High Ground in Space

- Vinod Anand

hina has been regularly Though, not very informative or coming out with white descriptive the White papers do C papers in many areas of its suggest the direction in which endeavour including defence and Chinese space programme has space activities. Promoting been moving forward. The papers transparency is claimed to be one also mention the likely plans for of the main goals of such an the future both in the short term exercise. But largely such papers and the long term perspective. hide more and reveal less. Further transparency, at times can be a In the latest white paper of double edged sword especially in December 2011 and in the earlier the military arena where one two white papers of 2000 and 2006 would like to both show off own on space the PRC avers that it will competence so as to deter one‘s make ―due contributions to the likely adversaries as also be peaceful use of outer space, and to secretive about any exceptional the civilisation and progress of progress made so as to not reveal mankind‖. But then the PRC too much; in addition at the same carried out a successful ASAT test time one would like to hide own in February 2007 which was weaknesses. directly in contradiction to its stated policy in the White paper Chinese space programme, for on space. And thereafter it joined long, remained under the so called Russia in proposing an ‗bamboo curtain‘. As part of its international treaty to ban the efforts in transparency the PRC deployment of weapons in outer released its third white paper on space. There can be no two views space activities in end December about the fact that Chinese last year. This paper follows the capabilities in space are making pattern of the earlier two white exceptional progress and this papers released on the subject. would add to the rising

* Vinod Anand - Senior Fellow, VIF

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comprehensive national power of infrastructure is taking shape, China. This has several which is well-configured, multi- implications for India and our functional, efficient and based on decision makers need to take a close cooperation between the note of it and formulate military and civilian sectors.‖ The appropriate responses. 2010 white paper on defence just mentions that ―Great importance While India has been reticent in has been attached to the peaceful making any linkages with its use and development of nuclear civilian and military space energy and space technology‖. programmes China makes no Evidently after testing its ASAT bones about flaunting close weapon it wants other aspiring linkages between space powers to not the two. Though to emulate its this linkage was There can be no two views example and mentioned in PRC‘s about the fact that Chinese therefore PRC‘s white paper on capabilities in space are proposal (along national defence of making exceptional progress with Russia) to and this would add to the 2006 vintage it has Conference on rising comprehensive national somewhat been Disarmament for a power of China. This has omitted in the draft Treaty on the several implications for India ensuing two white Prevention of the and our decision makers need papers on defence Placement of to take a note of it and of the years 2008 Weapons in Outer formulate appropriate and 2010. The 2006 Space and the responses. defence white Threat of Use of paper states – ― Force Against Major scientific and technological Outer Space Objects. projects, such as manned space flights and the Lunar Probe China's space activities 2011 white Project, are being carried out to paper reiterates that ―China spur the leapfrogging development always adheres to the use of outer of high-tech enterprises combining space for peaceful purposes, and military and civilian needs and to opposes weaponization or any bring about overall improvements arms race in outer space. The in defence-related science and country develops and utilizes technology….. As a result, a fairly space resources in a prudent mature scientific and technological manner and takes effective

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measures to protect the space of any advance information by the environment, ensuring that its Chinese the international space activities benefit the whole community is bound to assume the of mankind.‖ Such declarations, worst. evidently, can not be taken at their face value. The 2011 white paper on space assiduously avoids mentioning the In the recent years the Chinese word ‗defence‘ in its document. In have carried out a number of the section on purpose and experiments with the satellites principles of space development which could add to their ASAT the paper states that China's capabilities. In January 2010, they space industry is subject to and experimented with two missiles serves the national overall being launched from different development strategy, and locations with the adheres to the aim of engineering China considers the space principles of an exo-atmospheric programme as a strategic way scientific, collision. The U.S to enhance its economic, independent, spaced-based scientific, technological and peaceful, sensors had national defence strength, as innovative, and detected two well as a cohesive force for the open development. geographically unity of the Chinese people, in Contrast this with separated missile order to rejuvenate China.‖ the white paper of launch events with 2006 ―Maintaining exo-atmospheric and serving the collision. However, the Chinese country‘s overall development failed to notify the tests as per the strategy, meeting the needs of the international norms. Between state and reflecting its will. China June and August 2010, two considers the space programme Chinese satellites, SJ-06F and SJ- asa strategic way to enhance its 12, were involved in orbital economic, scientific, technological rendezvous maneuvers that gave and national defence strength, as rise to the suspicion that these well as a cohesive force for the could also be ASAT tests in some unity of the Chinese people, in way or the other. Such activities order to rejuvenate China.‖ could also have been useful for practicing docking between two In the last five years, China‘s Long satellites; however, in the absence March rockets have accomplished

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67 successful launches, sending 79 spaceship. In September 25 2008, spacecraft into planned orbits. China launched the Shenzhou-7 These rockets have improved their manned spaceship. In September launch performance parameters. It and November 2011, China is a different matter that some of successively launched the the technologies for this purpose Tiangong-1 and Shenzhou-8 have been acquired surreptitiously spaceship, and carried out its first or through plain pilferage as the space rendezvous and docking Cox report (The Report of the test, in order to progress towards Select Committee on U.S. National future space laboratories and Security and Military/Commercial space stations. In the coming Concerns with the People's years it is planning to launch Republic of China) of May 1999 Shenzhou-9 and Shenzhou-10 to has testified; and these efforts achieve unmanned /manned have continued since then. rendezvous and docking with the orbitting Tiangong-1 vehicle. For PRC has developed satellites for deep space exploration China variety of purposes; earth launched its first lunar probe observation satellites, Chang‘e-1 in October 2007 and communications and broadcasting Change-2 in October 2010. Sun satellites, Navigation and Laiyan the chief administrator of positioning satellites, scientific the CNSA had indicated that in satellites and technological test the future, China would start deep satellites. All these lend space exploration focusing on themselves to be exploited for Mars. India‘s achievements in military purposes. space, in comparison, are quite humble. Development and launching of several Shijian (Practice) satellites The space plans for next five years and small and micro satellites include development and though ostensibly meant for new acquisition of space assets at a technology demonstration can be very rapid pace. The Chinese used for variety of anti-satellites version of GPS navigation system missions and also as platforms for i.e. Beidou satellite navigation covert military missions. system is being developed in "three-step" development plan - PRC has shown considerable from experimental system to progress in launching manned regional system and then to global

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system. China is expected to put in adding to its both space and place a regional Beidou satellite counter space capabilities. As is navigation system by 2012. As of well known Beidou system has now, China has Beidou system both civil and military consisting of five GEO satellites, applications like the GPS and a five inclined geosynchronous orbit wide variety of other satellites also (IGSO) satellites and four have dual applications. medium-Earth-orbit (MEO) The PLA Air Force leadership has satellites. By 2012, the Beidou-2 talked about the possibilities of constellation is expected to provide militarization of space. And PLA‘s regional services with doctrine of fighting the ‗local wars approximately 10 under the satellites. The PRC conditions of plans to complete Seen from a military informationalisatio the BeiDou-2 perspective China‘s space- n‘ heavily relies on system by 2020, based assets have expanded their space-based with 35 a satellite PLA‘s capabilities in assets. PLA writers intelligence, surveillance, constellation suggest use of both reconnaissance, target offering global of offensive and acquisition, navigation, coverage. defensive means in weapon guidance and Undoubtedly, PRC order to protect command and control areas. seeks to be a own assets and Developments in the space predominant power interfere with or have also improved the in the space. destroy the accuracy of strategic delivery adversaries‘ space systems as well as missile Seen from a assets. Overall defnce systems. military objective is to seize perspective China‘s the initiative by space-based assets have expanded attacking enemy‘s weaknesses. PLA‘s capabilities in intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance, Buoyed by its economic growth target acquisition, navigation, China‘s ambitious space is weapon guidance and command gathering momentum at a time and control areas. Developments when both the U.S. and Russia‘s in the space have also improved space programmes are in decline. the accuracy of strategic delivery Obama administration has systems as well as missile defnce initiated cut backs both in space systems. In short, PRC is fast exploration and military spending

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due to economic difficulties and space programme on account of the economic burden of Iraq and which the Indian defence forces‘ Afghan wars. Meanwhile, China is requirement for space assets has seeking to achieve a degree of not received adequate attention. parity with advanced nations in its India also does not have a white military and space efforts by 2050. paper on these issues laying out aims and principles of its space So far as Indian armed forces are programme. Clearly, superiority in concerned there is a Defence Space space would have concomitant Vision-2020 document produced by impact in the military arena. Like HQ Integrated Defence Staff, China aims to erode the which outlines the roadmap for asymmetrical U.S military the armed forces in the realm of advantage through use of the space. However, the interaction space India could also follow same with department of Space and policy vis a vis China. While China Indian Space Research and most of the other powers Organisation (ISRO) is very profess to use the space for limited. Consequently, the armed peaceful purposes yet, they forces are still some distance away continue to add to their military from fully exploiting space for assets in the space. Indian armed real-time military communications forces can usher in RMA to a large and reconnaissance missions, extent if they acquire a robust leave alone uses like missile early- capability in the space. This would warning and delivery of precision- help us to meet very significantly guided munitions through satellite the internal and security signals or jamming enemy challenges. networks. back to content There is a distinct separation between India‘s civil and military

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Encircling the ‘Light of Asia’: the Lumbini Project

- Anirban Ganguly

Harvard Tercenary Conference of Arts and Science. Speaking in superlatives, Hu observed that ‗India conquered and dominated China culturally for two thousand years without ever having to send a single soldier across the border. …Never before had China seen a religion so rich in imagery, so beautiful and captivating in ritualism and so bold in cosmological and metaphysical

speculations. [And] Like a poor Asokan pillar as it stands at Lumbini today beggar suddenly halting before a hough he often lamented magnificent storehouse of precious the extent and depth of stones of dazzling brilliancy and T Indian influence on Chinese splendour, China was civilisation in the past, overwhelmed, baffled and Ambassador Hu Shih (1891-1962) overjoyed. She begged and scholar-formidable of China‘s borrowed freely from this cultural renaissance nevertheless munificent giver. The first conceded India‘s immense borrowings were chiefly from the contribution to his country‘s religious life of India, in which cultural and civilisational China‘s indebtedness to India can development in a paper never be fully told.‘ entitled ‗East and West: The In fact the introduction of Indianization of China: A Case Buddhism in China has always Study in Cultural been considered as one of the most Borrowing‘ presented at the important events in Chinese

* Anirban Ganguly - Research Associate, VIF

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history. Since its inception into power has now entered China‘s that country Buddhism continued official language‘ and that cultural to be a ‗major factor in Chinese diplomacy has indeed begun to civilisation, exercising a great play an increasingly important influence on religion, philosophy, role in its scheme of things. The art, and literature.‘ And at least in wielding of cultural power has in the past some Chinese have freely fact always been an important and gratefully acknowledged this objective for the Chinese who see cultural-civilisational debt by the use of economic power alone as referring to India as the ‗Teacher having ‗severe limitations‘ and of of China‘ and the Chinese being incapable of giving it a Buddhist had always pictured her larger standing in the comity of as a ‗Western nations. Paradise, Sukhavat Interestingly in the i.‘ Of late the ‗pupil‘ In fact the introduction of ancient world there has begun Buddhism in China has always appears to have overshadowing the been considered as one of the been no dichotomy ‗teacher‘ in matters most important events in between commerce cultural while the Chinese history. Since its and philosophy. ‗teacher‘ appears to inception into that country Buddhists legends be systematically Buddhism continued to be a apparently teem losing her past ‗major factor in Chinese with stories of historical memory civilisation, exercising a great Indian and Chinese and abdicating her influence on religion, ‗merchants civilisational space philosophy, art, and literature.‘ reputedly capable and getting of discussing progressively dependent on other metaphysical questions.‘ For them powers to formulate and philosophy and trade were not implement projects that define her ‗supposed to be incompatible.‘ The civilisational identity. At least Chinese, it seems have preserved that is what appears from China‘s this sense from the past and have recent move in monopolizing the begun to dexterously and development of the birthplace of effectively combine the twin the Buddha at Lumbini in diplomacies of commerce and Southern Nepal, steam rolling philosophy (read culture) in the issues of national sovereignty and present. regional religious sensitivities. It is a clear indication that ‗soft-

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The China based Asia Pacific developing Exchange and Cooperation the Sakyamuni‘s birthplace is Foundation‘s (APECF) ostensible cause for concern. The national purpose in investing $3billion to security angles to the project build a ‗special development zone‘ cannot be overstated, it has been in Nepal by transforming the town pointed out that Lumbini is a of Lumbini into a mega tourist, mere two hour drive from India‘s pilgrim and education centre was Gorakhpur and the project – if to evolve a ‗strategic centre-point given the go ahead which for the for promoting Buddhist culture.‘ time being looks to be stymied This was stated by APECF Vice- with the Nepal Cultural Ministry Chairman and a senior CPC taking exception at not being leader Xiao Wunan consulted by the who hoped that the The China based Asia Pacific UNIDO and project, which Exchange and Cooperation APECF– would in received the Foundation‘s (APECF) effect bring the backing of the ostensible purpose in investing Chinese across the Chinese $3billion to build a ‗special Himalayas right up government at the development zone‘ in Nepal by to the ‗lower highest levels, transforming the town of foothills bordering would also unite all Lumbini into a mega tourist, India.‘ The other three strands of pilgrim and education centre cause for concern is Buddhism was to evolve a ‗strategic that one of the including the centre-point for promoting Vice-Chairman of Tibetan. For a Buddhist culture.‘ APECF is the country that had Maoist leader unleashed an all- Prachanda and one out war against Buddhism as part of its other members is the of its cultural revolution in the 60s controversy-courting prince Paras. of the last century, had imposed a The other unstated fall-out of the ‗revisionist version of Buddhism‘ project and one which is bound to on its adherents and had by 1959 be worrisome for the Indian destroyed as many as 6,000 security establishment is that a Buddhist monasteries in Tibet majority of the project contracts alone and shipped most of their would be awarded to Chinese rare artifacts for melting in giant companies and pave the way for foundries in the mainland, this the entry of ‗PLA-affiliated sub- rather new found interest in contractors‘ and engineers

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ensuring a long term Chinese Shih Huang-ti (246-210 BCE). The presence in the area bordering reign of emperor Wu the ‗Warlike‘ India. between 424 and 452 C.E. saw more prosecutions and attacks on On the religious side the move Buddhists. Wu, it is believed, was appears to be made with the aim the first sovereign to really ‗lay of neutralizing the Dalai Lama‘s violent hands upon Buddhism‘ influence by encircling one of the when he decreed ‗that the monks most sacred and emotive Buddhist should be put to death, and the pilgrim spots in the world. Ever Buddhist images should be burned since 2006, when the CPC or smashed‘ and that ‗everyone proactively attempted to who concealed a monk should be rehabilitate Buddhism, such put to death, together with his overtures have been periodically whole family.‘ Some of the decrees made. The interest the Chinese of that period enjoined upon the have evinced in the upcoming governors of the provinces to Nalanda University in Bihar is a demolish or burn all Buddhist recent case in point. But the places of worship and to ‗throw ironies of history require periodic down the precipices all monks, reiteration, at least for the young or old‘ who dared to follow purpose of preserving these in the the religion. Officials during the collective civilisational memory. seventh century Tang dynasty For example it would be questioned the need for the instructive to recall that despite Buddhist religion and denounced its magnificent contribution to the the clergy as a ‗class of useless evolution of Chinese civilisation drones, idlers, and beggars,‘ whose Buddhism and its adherents in ‗religious work encourages waste China have historically faced of money, especially spent in the persecution and suppression. This erection of temples and newfound concern of the Chinese, monasteries.‘ Fù-Yi‘s ‗Memorial therefore, for preserving the against Buddhism‘ made during Buddha‘s birthplace seems to this period and which saw wide smack of rank opportunism. The circulation discussed the ‗fell ‗Fen-shu-keng-ju‘ incident in effects of Buddhism in times past‘ which scholars were buried alive and proposed to altogether do and books burnt occurred during away with the religion. In that the reign of the first Chin monarch sense, there have been in the and builder of the Great Wall, China of the past several

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precursors to its twentieth century to the sacred grove – Lumbini ‗cultural revolution‘, all of them Vana – with strikingly similar addressed Asoka thus, ‗asmin manifestations and expressions! Mahārāja pradeśe Bhagavān jātah‘ (‗In this place, O great king, Losing civilisational memory the Blessed One was born‘). To incapacitates a civilisation to commemorate the event of the defend or preserve its cultural Divine birth, Asoka installed a space. India‘s civilisational links pillar of stone, constructed stupas with Lumbini extend over eons and made the village of Lummini and yet its memory appears (Lumbini) free of religious cesses‘ incapable of moving us towards and reduced its payment of other displaying an shares. The active interest in Losing civilisational memory commemorative the area‘s well incapacitates a civilisation to pillar edict records being and growth. defend or preserve its cultural the pilgrimage of We appear to be space. India‘s civilisational the Indian losing it amidst the links with Lumbini extend emperor, ‗By His mist of centuries. over eons and yet its memory Sacred and When Emperor appears incapable of moving us Gracious Majesty Asoka was towards displaying an active the King when he ‗engaged in interest in the area‘s well had been humanizing politics being and growth. We appear consecrated twenty by incorporating to be losing it amidst the mist years, having come the spirit of of centuries. in person and Buddha‘s reverence having compassion into his been done – administration‘ China was just inasmuch as ―Here was born beginning to emerge as a unified Buddha, the sage of the Sâkyas‖ – state after a period of chaos, civil a stone bearing a horse was strife and conflict. In the caused to be made and a stone twentieth year [250-249 BCE] of pillar was erected.‘ Historian his reign the mighty emperor Radhakumud Mookerjee, one of ‗visited in person the place where the earliest nationalist chroniclers the Buddha was born and did of Asoka and his empire visited worship there.‘ It is said that the the area in 1927 and described the venerable Buddhist monk place thus, ‗…I rode through the Upagupta who guided the emperor village of Padaria to the site of the

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Asokan Pillar about two miles leading Japanese architect Kenzo distant…Within a few paces of the Tange (1913-2005) way back in pillar stands a temple enshrining 1978 on invitation from the Nepal an ancient sculpture representing government. The plan, which has the Nativity of the Buddha, the since been gathering dust due to figure of his mother Mahāmāyā, paucity of resources and standing under the sāl tree after facilitation, was to be her delivery with three implemented within seven years attendants.‘ We seem to consign and proposed to involve other all of these into nations with oblivion and to significant miss the symbolism While Asoka‘s legacy was Buddhist of the fact that one rediscovered, rescued and population such as whose reign reintegrated into the Sri Lanka, Japan, became one of the mainstream of our national , South defining periods of life, the significance, Korea, and Indian civilisation symbolism and uniting Thailand apart chose to humbly potential of this spot of from China. The commemorate the Lumbini appears to have been facilitation of that twentieth year of ignored and remains plan would have his reign at the obfuscated. India could have at perhaps been more sacred Lumbini. least facilitated the in keeping with the implementation of a master spirit and message plan drawn up by the leading of Buddhism. Japanese architect Kenzo Instead of making While Asoka‘s Tange (1913-2005) way back in the whole project legacy was 1978 on invitation from the the sole show of a rediscovered, Nepal government. particular rescued and government reintegrated into through proxy foundations, the the mainstream of our national effort should have been instead to life, the significance, symbolism try and create a consortium of all and uniting potential of this spot nations with a strong Buddhist of Lumbini appears to have been link, including the Tibetans and ignored and remains obfuscated. under the leadership of Nepal and India could have at least the UNESCO - which has declared facilitated the implementation of a Lumbini as a world heritage site – master plan drawn up by the to jointly develop the area and

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consecrate it to humanity as whole original Kenzo master-plan can with the message of freedom, still be discussed and other peace and progress. India – being nations be immediately invited to the cradle of Buddhism - should be part of what can be turned into have extended a generous and a truly international project. India munificent hand of assistance and may unconditionally make her not let the original plan, with its contribution towards re-initiating far greater aesthetic appeal, such an effort and thereby prevent languish and fall by the way side. the encircling of the ‗Light of Asia‘. She could have, long back, Had not the ‗Exalted One‘ in his initiated projects to transform her last sermon, directed the faithful border districts with Nepal into a to, ‗…be ye lamps unto yourselves. special cultural and religious zone. [And to] Betake yourself to no It might also be worth external refuge.‘? remembering that this entire zone once teemed with vibrant and It was a millennial faith reposed robust self-governing republics. in the Indian civilisation and on With the Nepal government its capacity to tirelessly and rejecting last week the project selflessly irradiate its ways of life saying that ‗it would not entertain and thought. any deal struck in a third country without the participation of the back to content actual stakeholders‘ the possibilities of renewing the

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Modernising the Motivational Context of the Indian Armed Forces

- Maj Gen(Dr) G D Bakshi

ietmar Rothermund and discontinue all recruitment from Harman Kulke state that the present day states of Bengal, D the non-revolutionary Bihar and most of UP. These transfer of power from the native troops (who had once British Empire to the Indian formed the backbone of the Republic enabled it to inherit Mauryan Army that had first intact the instrumentalities of unified India politically in 330 BC governance like the armed forces era) were declared ―non-martial‖ and the civil and police and excluded from further bureaucracies. The new born recruitment. Also dispensed were republic was beset with the the troops from the South that had trauma of partition and the first formed the backbone of the war in J&K and thus forced to Madras Presidency Army. Lord focus on immediate consolidation. Roberts of Kandahar propagated It had little time or energy to his martial race theory and the transform the colonial entire recruitment bias of the instruments to the needs of an British Indian Army was switched Independent Republic. Hence the to North and North West India. basic structure and motivational The Sikhs, the Punjabi ethos of the armed forces in Musalmans and the Gurkhas (who general and the Indian Army in had largely stayed out of the 1857 particular, has remained rooted in struggle) formed the bulk of this the colonial context. The British new colonial Army. We thus saw had organized the Indian Army on the formation of ethnicity based the basis of ethnicity/ sub- Regiments like the Sikhs, Jats, nationality based Regiments. The Marathas, Dogras Rajputs, trauma of the First War of Independence had led them to

* Maj Gen (Dr) G D Bakshi SM,VSM (retd) Senior Fellow, VIF

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Kumaonis, Garhwalis and are we still fixated on a colonial Gurkhas who were deemed model of military motivation martial classes. The primary designed to curb nationalism and concern of the British Indian encourage a plethora of regional, Army was to sanitise this force ethnic and sub national identities? and ensure that no nationalist sentiments would ever arise in In practical terms the British this colonial instrument. There colonial, martial race based would be no repetition of 1857 and recruitment model proved too this colonial army would faithfully narrow to support a large army. It obey orders to shoot at its own broke down in the First World citizenry whenever necessary. To War when the colonial army had that extent the very idea of India to be rapidly expanded from as a unified entity was anathema 350,000 to 1.1 million men. A large to the British. number of non- Nationalism was a The critical question is that six martial classes like dangerous word in decades after Independence the Mahzbi Sikhs, the ranks of the why are we still fixated on a Mahars and allied colonial military. colonial model of military scheduled caste The entire basis of motivation designed to curb ethnicities had to military motivation nationalism and encourage a be per force was therefore plethora of regional, ethnic and recruited. In the focused around the sub national identities? Second World War Izzat/ honour and the British Indian martial traditions Army had to be of the sub nationality based expanded to an all time record size Regiment. The pride in the ―quam‖ of 2.5 million men to fight the (sub nationality) was the primary Japanese and also contribute basis of the military motivational troops for Europe and North ideology. The history and Africa theatres. The martial class achievements of the ―quam‖ were recruitment base completely broke used to inspire the soldiery. Such down and very large number of a motivational ideology by itself ―non-martial‖ class soldiers had to would obstruct the emergence of be recruited. The Bihar regiment nationalist sentiments based on was once more a part of the fashioning a pan-Indian identity. British Indian Army along with a The critical question is that six whole host of castes and decades after Independence why communities that had earlier been

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labeled non-martial. The martial Regiment etc with fixed class class narrative as a basis of composition (like two Company military motivation had, in Dogras, two Companies Jats and practice, failed to meet the needs Dogra/ Sikhs combinations etc) of a very large army even before *All India All Class These had a Independence. heterogeneous mix of all Indian castes/ classes. All new Regiments Post Independence Developments e.g. Paras, Guards, Mechanised Infantry etc that were raised post independence were on this mixed In theory the Martial Race concept model and have performed very was debunked after Independence well. but continued in practice to form the basis of Gen Rodrigues Era Regimental Reforms Post Operation Blue Star, motivation. Post Operation mutinies in some battalions of Recruitment was Blue Star, mutinies the Sikh and thrown open on all in some battalions India all class sharply underlined the perils of over reliance on sub of the Sikh and basis. However the nationality or ethnicity based Punjab Regiment legacy Regiments Regiments and systems of sharply underlined were retained to motivation in the present day the perils of over prevent context when insurgencies are reliance on sub organizational largely focused on ethnic nationality or turbulence and the identities. ethnicity based simple fact was Regiments and that the Martial race oriented systems of motivation in the model had become deeply present day context when ingrained in the psyche of the insurgencies are largely focused on Army. No need was felt to disturb ethnic identities. However Gen functional organizations that had Rodrigues attempts to breakdown performed well in the war. Three existing ‗Fixed class‘ Infantry types of Units were now retained:- Regiments into heterogeneous compositions by deliberately mixing sub units of different * Single Class Regiments e.g. The Regiments were deeply resented Sikhs, Dogras, Jats, Marathas etc. as they disrupted the historic *Fixed Class Regiments e.g. the continuity of organizational Grenadiers, and the Punjab

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entities with long histories of emphasized regional identities to corporate existence and collective prevent the emergence of memories of inspiring battle nationalism in a colonial Army. performances. This experimental There is a need to understand and reform process was deeply transform this cultural context resented in the Army and was and outgrow the anachronisms of revoked a few years down the line. a colonial Past. Its basic flaw was trying to mix sub units of existing Regiments Nationalism as Basis of Combat rather than trying to organically Motivation grow new units of mixed compositions. It missed the essential point altogether. The The British had superimposed Basic problem was NOT with the their own Regimental model based composition but the emphasis on on regional/ethnic identities ethnicity for motivation. Units can (Scots, Irish Guards etc) on the be formed on regional basis to ease British Indian Armies. Most administrative/ functional Western Armies base their problems. However what is of Regiments on such regional basis essence is their basic motivational and limit motivational narratives philosophy. Is it based on regional to the unit/ Regimental level. chauvinism or on a larger theme of However the Germans and the Nationalism and Patriotism – the Japanese and to an extent the aggressive promotion of a pan- Russians, based their motivational Indian identity? The honest fact is themes on a highly aggressive that the colonial culture that was promotion of militant nationalism. deeply suspicious of any The motivational focus was placed Nationalist sentiment in the Army on the highest organizational unfortunately persists as a entity – the Nation State itself and historical anachronism. Some not anything lower. All else was officers at the highest levels still secondary. The highest loyalty, the claim that the Indian Army fights highest cause was the nation not for the country or any patriotic state. This served as a common fervor but for the Izzat of the theme for motivation across Paltan -the ethnicity based organizational boundaries – the Regiment. Such an attitude is a Army, Navy, Air force and clear hangover of the Raj period Marines all subscribed to a and its colonial narrative that common motivational ideology

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that stressed not regional but a a most effective way in past wars. pan-national identity. This It generates tremendous facilitated Inter services organizational coherence and a coordination and synergy. Militant high degree of motivation. It nationalism served as a highly creates the inspirational climate effective basis of combat that fosters extremes of sacrifice. motivation in World War II. Post It is a well tried and tested model war evaluation of Allied and with proven battle field validity. German /Japanese military unit We could not adopt it in the past – performances indicated that the because we were a colonial Army. German Wehrmacht and the 60 years after Independence – Imperial Japanese Armies( even what is it that prevents us from though they lost adopting this the War due to combat validated overall asymmetry Thus Militant Nationalism as model? of industrial a basis for combat motivation resources that the has worked in a most effective In Mar 2006, a US entry into the way in past wars. It generates Vietnamese Army war generated) tremendous organizational delegation had proved to be the coherence and a high degree of visited HQ Eastern motivation. It creates the more efficient and Command of the inspirational climate that effective armies. Indian Army. One fosters extremes of sacrifice. It American studies of the Vietnamese is a well tried and tested model have indicated that Generals was keen with proven battle field German units to know what the validity. decimated to the Indian Army did extent of 80% still retained their for Patriotism combat cohesion in World War II. Training. The look of Slim had lamented astonishment on his face when he that ―We all talk of fighting to the was told that we do nothing of this last man and last round – the kind but rely on the Regimental Japanese are the only ones who do system to motivate our men, will it‖. The Kamikaze suicide pilots long haunt me personally. The bear testimony to the very high Vietnamese Generals insight levels of combat motivation in the deserves to be reflected upon. The Japanese Armed Forces. Thus organizational need is to outgrow Militant Nationalism as a basis for the cultural context of colonialism combat motivation has worked in and find our moorings as a nation

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state and future power to reckon Marching Song of ‗Kadam Kadam with. Barhaye Ja ‗ be played at the Passing Out Parades (POP) of the An Alternative Indian Model: IMA and OTA and at all POPs of Learning From the INA the recruits at the Regimental Centers. This was a step in the right direction and the practice is Gen Shankar Roychowdhury, still in vogue. The INA is a very when he was the Chief, vibrant and extant model that highlighted the need to transform needs much greater study and the Indian Army‘s motivational analysis. Anton Pelinka writes methodology to this militant ―Bose was certainly Nationalism model always a that emphasizes The INA is a very vibrant and nationalist. For Patriotism and extant model that needs much him the Indian aggressive greater study and analysis. nation was an idea, championing of a Anton Pelinka writes ―Bose the anti-thesis of pan-Indian was certainly always a the princely state identity. He nationalist. For him the Indian and the caste suggested that the nation was an idea, the anti- system, the Indian National thesis of the princely state and religious struggle Army of Subash the caste system, the religious and linguistic Chandra Bose struggle and linguistic conflicts conflicts and above provided a and above all the anti-thesis of all the anti-thesis readymade model Jinnaha‘s theory of two of Jinnaha‘s theory for the Indian nations‖. of two nations‖. context. It had tried to apply the The INA had German and Japanese techniques strength of 1500 officers and of military motivation to the 60,000 men. It was organized into Indian context with considerable Three Divisions, Command Troops success. The simple fact is that (to include Special Forces, most of our Post–Independence Armored and Anti Aircraft units, efforts to Indianise the Indian Transport and Logistics troops). It Army are borrowed from the INA. had an Officers Training School ―Jai Hind‖ our salutation comes and a Women Regiment (Rani of from the INA. Gen Roychowdhury Jhansi Regiment). The First and had decreed that the INA Second Division saw action in

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Burma and the Third was British decision to leave India. deployed in Malaya. In Burma the Even in defeat it inspired victory. INA Division fought along with the Japanese 15th, 31st, and 33rd The INA Indianised many German Divisions in Manipur, Kohima and and Japanese techniques of Imphal respectively and then took military motivation and part in the difficult retreat across emphasized militant Nationalism. Burma (especially the Battles of Though both German and Mektila and Irrawaddy crossing) Japanese models do have a Morale and motivation across negative resonance and may formations and Units was not appear somewhat anachronistic uniform and some units formed of yet some of their concepts could be surrendered Indian Army POWs modified to suit modern Indian did not do as well as those raised conditions. de novo and trained by the Japanese. The best performance Today there is a need to emulate perhaps was at Mount Popa where the INA model with perhaps some an INA company fought bravely modifications. We need the against a British Tank assault following:- with petrol bombs. The astounding fact is that overall the INA took * Heavy emphasis on nationalism 26,000 casualties in World War II. at the entry levels of the NDA, This accounts for almost 43% IMA and OTA which are casualties. Yet most INA Units foundational in their impact. The had retained their combat courses must commence with a cohesion till the end of the War. Motivational Capsule of a week Sustaining morale in a retreat is a before main training commences. very difficult proposition. The It must rely on a capsule of Indian INAs motivational philosophy History, Indian Military clearly enabled it to do so. The Traditions and Post-Independence INA had come too late when the achievements. It must rely upon tide of war had already turned. motivational films and inspiring Nevertheless, its overall impact on war movies to provide role models the Indian Freedom movement and include talks by Gallantry was far greater than is realized award winners. and is deemed by many as * There is a motivation training instrumental in shaping the capsule in the current Recruit Training Syllabus. It comes in the

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middle of the training regime at * There is a need to outgrow the Regimental Centers. This needs to colonial context in our be made the starting point of organizational culture and transit recruit training. Heavy emphasis to a ‗Nationalism‘ model that must be laid on emphasizing the emphasises loyalty to the highest Indian ethos, the Regimental organizational entity of the Nation History and Films on Regimental State. Such a similarity of military Heroes and award motivational context across winners who can act as role organizational boundaries will models for the young soldiers. promote Inter-services synergy Heavy emphasis must be laid on and coordination. Different Community singing of Patriotic services will then place the songs, marching songs and singing National interest above parochial with military bands. European service loyalties as a deeply armies have traditionally used ingrained habit of thought. This is community singing as a powerful a combat validated model that motivational tool. worked brilliantly in the Second World War and is still practiced by the Vietnamese and Israeli Armed * Middle and Senior Officers must Forces. In the INA we have a be encouraged to study Indian readymade model of motivation History (especially Indian Military customized for the Indian context. History) and capsules on the organizational culture, ethos and back to content motivational philosophy must be run at the basal courses at the Army War College and College of Defense Management.

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The Lok Pal Saga

- A. Surya Prakash

How Nine Governments Betrayed the Nation

he story of how leaders from Here is a glimpse: across the political T spectrum have, for over four Though the debate of corruption decades, stalled the establishment has been dominating political of an ombudsman empowered to discourse in India over the last investigate the prime minister, his twelve months, apprehensions ministerial colleagues and other about corruption and its impact on public servants in India. governance were first heard over four decades ago. The Santhanam While every political party in Committee, that initially India has offered lip service to the examined the issue in the 1960s, idea of having an independent expressed its concern about institution to probe allegations of corruption and the lack of an corruption against members of the effective mechanism to deal with political executive and the top the corrupt. Thereafter, the bureaucracy, the political class has Administrative Reforms dragged its feet whenever an effort Commission (ARC) appointed in has been made to make law in this that decade was tasked to examine regard. Politicians have tried to ―the problems of redress of hoodwink the people into believing citizens‘ grievances, keeping in that despite their efforts, the law mind the need for ensuring the has not entered the statute book highest standards of efficiency and because of some legal tangles. Is integrity in the public services and this true? When the history of this also for making public legislation is written, many administration responsive to the political leaders including some of people‖. Specifically, the India‘s most powerful prime commission was asked to examine ministers will be judged harshly. the adequacy of the existing

* A. Surya Prakash - Senior Fellow, VIF

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arrangements for redress of had been thought of consequent to grievances and the need for the recommendations of the ARC. introduction of any new machinery However, the bill differed from the or special institution for the draft bill proposed by the ARC in redress of grievances. that it sought to create a statutory machinery to enquire into The ARC was so concerned about complaints based on actions of all the growing public anger over union public servants including corruption that it decided to put ministers. The bill also sought to this issue on high priority. It felt deal with maladministration, that its recommendations vis-à-vis apart from corruption. Therefore, the establishment of an anti- it empowered the Lokpal to corruption institution should not enquire into actions of public wait till it completed its labours in servants which were actuated by regard to the entire gamut of ―personal interest‖ or ―improper or administrative reforms. Therefore, corrupt motives‖ or abuse of it submitted an interim report in position. The Lokpal could also 1966 titled ―Problems of Redress of look into actions of public servants Citizens‘ Grievances‖, in which it which smacked of ―lack of recommended the setting up of a integrity‖ or were ―unjust, Lok Pal. The commission oppressive or discriminatory‖ or recommended that there should be fell in the category of negligence or a statutory machinery to enquire undue delay. The bill covered all into complaints of corruption or ministers and public servants. injustice arising out of The bill was considered by the maladministration. The Congress Joint Committee of the two Government headed by Indira Houses and was passed by the Lok Gandhi appeared to share the Sabha in 1969. While this Bill was concerns of the ARC in regard to pending in the Rajya Sabha, the corruption and decided to Fourth Lok Sabha was dissolved implement the commission‘s and consequently the Bill lapsed. recommendations in right earnest. This bill fell by the wayside when This led to the introduction of the Prime Minister first Lokpal and Lokayuktas Bill sought early dissolution of the Lok in the Lok Sabha in 1968. Sabha and a fresh Lok Sabha Poll Mr.Y.B.Chavan, who introduced in 1971. the first Lokpal and Lokayuktas Bill said this legislative measure

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Indira Gandhi‘s Congress was returned with a two-thirds Non-Congress Governments Give majority in the Lok Sabha that it a Shot year and the new government she formed after the election lost no The non-Congress parties had time in re-introducing the bill, their first shot at the creation of a which had been passed by the strong anti-corruption institution previous Lok Sabha. The after the Congress Party was Statement of Objects and Reasons trounced in the post-Emergency appended to the 1971 Bill noted Lok Sabha Election held in that the bill, like the one March,1977. It was now the turn introduced in 1968, differed from of Mr.Charan Singh, the then the draft bill Home Minister to proposed by the The Indira Gandhi government introduce a Lok Pal ARC in two major could have no excuses for Bill on behalf of the respects. However, allowing this Bill to lapse Janata Party even this bill was because it could muster a two- Government. That ill-fated. Although thirds majority in the two government made the term of this Houses of Parliament and her major changes in House was government had introduced regard to the extended by year major constitutional changes jurisdiction of during the which had upset the basic Lokpal and the Emergency, it structure of the Constitution. persons who came lapsed on the Lok Further, the Lok Sabha itself within this Sabha‘s dissolution had an extended tenure. institution‘s ambit. in early 1977. The Mr. Charan Singh Indira Gandhi had this to say in government could have no excuses regard to past initiatives and for allowing this Bill to lapse about the new thinking within the because it could muster a two- government in regard to thirds majority in the two Houses constitution of such an of Parliament and her government ombudsman: ―The matter has been had introduced major re-examined having regard to the constitutional changes which had recommendations of the ARC, the upset the basic structure of the provisions of the 1971 Bill and Constitution. Further, the Lok other laws on the subject enacted Sabha itself had an extended in the various States from time to tenure. time and the experience of the

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functioning of such institutions in excluded from his jurisdiction‖. the states where they have been Therefore, the Janata Party set up. In the light of this re- Government wanted the focus to examination, it is proposed to alter be entirely on persons holding the scheme of the Lokpal as political offices like that prime incorporated in the 1971 bill in minister, union ministers, chief material respects for making the ministers and members of institution of Lokpal an effective parliament. Civil servants were instrument to combat the problem excluded. However, Mr.Charan posed by corruption at higher Singh ensured that the Lokpal had political levels. Under the scheme direct administrative control and now proposed, the jurisdiction of an independent investigating Lokpal will cover machinery to assist any complaint of him in the misconduct After the Janata Party discharge of his (pertaining to a squandered the opportunity functions. But, this period not given by the people, Indira bill too was exceeding five Gandhi returned to power with doomed. It was also years prior to the a thumping majority in 1980 referred to a Joint date of the but chose not to introduce this Committee of complaint) against bill again. Despite her Parliament, which a person who is or formidable strength in the two reported back to has been a public Houses of Parliament, she took the House in July, man as defined in no initiative to establish the 1978 but even as clause2(g) of the Lok Pal. the bill was under bill. The prime consideration, the minister, members of parliament Lok Sabha was dissolved and it and chief ministers of states are lapsed. being brought within the purview of the Lokpal‖. After the Janata Party squandered the opportunity given In the Statement of Objects and by the people, Indira Gandhi Reasons attached to this bill, the returned to power with a minister said: ―Allegations against thumping majority in 1980 but civil servants will not come within chose not to introduce this bill the purview of the lokpal; and again. Despite her formidable grievances, as distinct from strength in the two Houses of allegations of misconduct, will be Parliament, she took no initiative

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to establish the Lok Pal. The the creation of an institution that Congress Party resumed its could critically examine its dalliance with the Lok Pal functioning, and therefore, legislation soon after Rajiv Gandhi without much ado, the government took over the reins when it went quietly withdrew the Bill! through the motions of introducing a Lok Pal Bill in 1985. At that Thereafter, a series of non- stage, the Rajiv Gandhi Congress governments tried in Government was still in its vain to bring in this law. honeymoon phase with the people Introducing yet another version of and Mr.Gandhi was the this bill in the Lok Sabha in 1989, ―Mr.Clean‖ who was promising to Mr.Dinesh Goswami, the Law cleanse the system and to finish Minister in the V.P.Singh the ―power brokers‖ Government who he said were referred to the The Deve Gowda Government riding on the backs chequered history brought a bill in of poor people. of the Lokpal Bill September,1996, which too Like his mother, and said having lapsed with the dissolution of Rajiv Gandhi had studied the interim the Eleventh Lok Sabha. The all the political report of the ARC Atal Behari Vajpayee strength to push submitted in 1966 Government introduced the through a tough and all the four bill in August ,1998 and this anti-corruption law bills which were too lapsed with the dissolution through introduced in the of the Twelfth Lok Sabha. parliament. In the parliament earlier, election held in the government December, 1984, the Congress has come to the conclusion that Party had inflicted a crushing such legislation for constituting defeat on its opponents and had the institution of Lokpal is bagged 410 seats in the Lok imperative to combat the problem Sabha. Mr.Gandhi had such of corruption at higher political political and parliamentary levels. The government was strength that he could have passed bringing this law, he said, because this law without even a whisper of in the interest of democracy, it protest. But, he too backed out should be the endeavour of every after making some tall claims. public functionary at top political ―Wisdom‖ soon dawned on the levels to maintain high standards government that it was facilitating of public morality. But the bill

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lapsed with the dissolution of the should immediately be made on Ninth Lok Sabha. the basis of the Bill. Let experience be gained of working a The Deve Gowda Government high level body to enforce brought a bill in September,1996, standards of rectitude and which too lapsed with the propriety in the conduct of public dissolution of the Eleventh Lok affairs‖. However, the Lokpal Bill, Sabha. The Atal Behari Vajpayee 2001 too was ill-fated. Government introduced the bill in August ,1998 and this too lapsed Public Pressure Brings Lokpal with the dissolution of the Twelfth Into focus Yet Again Lok Sabha. The Atal Behari Vajyapee returned to power after The Congress-led United the Lok Sabha Poll in 1999 and a Progressive alliance came to power fresh attempt was made by his at the centre in 2004. It however government in the Thirteenth Lok steered clear of the Lokpal idea in Sabha in 2001. This Bill, the its first term and in the initial government said, was meant to phase in its second term. However, enable citizens ―to have recourse a public agitation launched by to a convenient and effective social activist Anna Hazare and forum for determination of others shook the government out complaints and thereby save them of its slumber. In order to pacify from pursuing their remedies the agitationists, who wanted a through the process of courts‖. The strong Lokpal, the union National Commission to Review government constituted a joint the working of the Constitution ( drafting committee in april, 2011. NCRWC) , which submitted its The government thereafter report thereafter was very keen introduced a the Lokpal Bill, 2011 that parliament pass this law. It in August, 2011. said in para 6.21.2 of its report that ―the Lok Pal Bill needs to be This Bill was referred to the expeditiously considered and Department-Related passed by Parliament. If possible, Parliamentary Standing it may be further strengthened by Committee on Personnel, Public providing that its findings should Grievances, Law and Justice on be final and form the basis for August 8, 2011, followed by a action by government. The parliamentary debate. A ―sense of Commission thinks that a start the House‖ was communicated to

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the Standing Committee on the relating to bribery and put in basis of discussions in the two place an effective mechanism for Houses. The committee, after its enforcement. The obligations of extensive discussion with all the Convention, with reference to stakeholders, suggested several India, have come into force with amendments and recommended effect from June 8, 2011. that the Lokpal at the centre and ―As a policy of Zero tolerance Lokayukta in the States be against Corruption, the Bill seeks conferred constitutional status. to establish in the country, a more The government withdrew the bill effective mechanism to receive introdced in August, 2011 and complaints relating to allegations brought a fresh Lokpal and of corruption against public Lokayuktas Bill in December, servants including Ministers; 2011, after MPs, Chief considering the Ministers, report of the In the Statement of Objects Members of standing and Reasons appended to this Legislative committee. bill, the government claimed Assemblies and that India was ―committed to public servants and In the Statement of pursue the policy of Zero to inquire into Objects and Tolerance against Corruption‖ them and take Reasons appended after it ratified the United follow up actions. to this bill, the Nations Convention Against The bodies, government Corruption May 9, 2011. namely, Lokpal claimed that India and Lokayuktas was ―committed to pursue the which are being set up for the policy of Zero Tolerance against purpose will be constitutional Corruption‖ after it ratified the bodies. The setting up of these United Nations Convention bodies will further strengthen the Against Corruption May 9, 2011. existing legal and institutional This Convention imposes a mechanism thereby facilitating a number of obligations, some more effective implementation of mandatory, some recommendatory some of the obligations under the and some optional on the Member aforesaid Convention‖, the States. The Convention, inter alia, statement said. envisages that State Parties When this bill came up for ensure measures in the domestic discussion and voting in the Lok law for criminalization of offences Sabha in December, 2011, the

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House passed the bill but rejected selection of the Lok Pal and the the constitutional amendment institution‘s powers. that would accord the Lokpal and Lokayukta constitutional status. On the question of bringing the When it went to the Rajya Sabha, prime minister within the Lok the whole process was stymied by Pal‘s ambit, there has been an some who MPs moved dozens of intense debate over several amendments, while some others decades. Generally speaking, the warned their parliamentary Congress Party has been averse to colleagues that they were the idea. It has felt that if the establishing an institution that prime minister, who is the de facto would jeopardize chief executive, is their political placed within the careers. In the end, On the question of bringing the jurisdiction of the the House was prime minister within the Lok anticorruption adjourned sine die Pal‘s ambit, there has been an agency, it will because of the intense debate over several weaken the office of decades. Generally speaking, prevailing prime minister. the Congress Party has been pandemonium. As Non-Congress averse to the idea. It has felt a result, it is still parties however that if the prime minister, who hanging fire in the have felt that the is the de facto chief executive, Upper House. political executive is placed within the would not be fully jurisdiction of the Should The Prime accountable if the anticorruption agency, it will Minister Be Kept prime minister weaken the office of prime Out? were to be kept out. minister. Hence, the Lokpal Apart from the Bills introduced by general aversion to the idea of a non-Congress governments have strong ombudsman, the political sought to bring the prime minister class is divided on some key issues within the ambit of the law. pertaining to the powers of this institution. For eample, there has The Lokpal Bill, 1977, introduced never been unanimity on the issue by the Janata Party Government, of bringing the prime minister sought to deal with acts of within the Lok Pal‘s purview. corruption committed by a ―public Similarly, there has never been an man‖. The prime minister was agreement on the mode of included in the definition of

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―public man‖. The bill introduced because of a nation-wide agitation in 1989 by yet another non- led by social activist Anna Hazare. Congress government headed by The law, it said, would provide for Mr.V.P.Singh, replaced the ‗public the establishment of a body of man‖ of 1977 with ―public Lokpal for the Union and functionary‖ but kept the prime Lokayukta for States to inquire minister within the meaning of into allegations of corruption this term. The 1996 bill- against public servants and for introduced by the United Front matters connected therewith or Government headed by incidental thereto. Clauses (a) to Mr.H.D.Deve Gowda also brought (h) of sub-section 1 of Section 14 of the Prime Minister, ministers and the bill described a ―public Members of Parliament within the servant" and this included ―any ambit of the term ―public person who is or has been a prime functionary‖. minister‖.

The Lokpal Bill introduced by the However, the Congress Party is (BJP)-led not alone in having reservations coalition government in 1998 and about bringing the prime minister the BJP-led National Democratic with the prview of the Lokpal. The Alliance Government headed by National Commission to Review Mr.Atal Behari Vajpayee in 2001 the Working of the Constitution also brought the prime minister (NCRWC), which went into the within the Lokpal‘s ambit. The working of the constitution since it Lokpal and Lokayuktas Bill, 2011 was adopted in 1950, was also of introduced by the Congress-led the view that the prime minister United Progressive Alliance should be kept out of the purview Government headed by of the Lokpal. Another national Mr.Manmohan Singh is the first commission that wanted the prime Lokpal law brought by the minister to be kept out of the Congress in which the prime prview of the Lokpal was the minister is placed within the second Administrative Reforms ombudsman‘s jurisdiction. Commission (Second ARC). This commission said in its 2007 report Though the Congress Party was that the ombudsman should be a opposed to the idea, it gave in to constitutional authority, but the the demand that the prime prime minister should not be minister be made accountable, within its jurisdiction.

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Mode of Appointment of the Lok Minister, the Speaker of the Lok Pal Sabha, Deputy Chairman, Rajya Sabha, the Leaders of the The method of appointment of the Opposition in the Lok Sabha and Lokpal has been a matter of much Rajya Sabha, Minister in charge of controversy over the last four Home Affairs and the Minister of decades because of diverse and State in the Ministry of Personnel. often conflicting opinion in this The 2001 bill however preferred a regard. larger selection committee. It said the Lokpal should be selected by a The first Lokpal Bill introduced in committee headed by the Vice- 1968 said the President and Lokpal would be including the appointed by the The 2001 bill however Prime Minister, the President after preferred a larger selection Home Minister, consultation with committee. It said the Lokpal Leader of the the Chief Justice of should be selected by a House other than India and the committee headed by the Vice- the house in which Leader of the President and including the the Prime Minister Opposition in the Prime Minister, the Home is a member, House of the Minister, Leader of the House Speaker of the Lok other than the house in which People. The 1977 Sabha, Leader of the Prime Minister is a bill said the Lokpal Opposition in the member, Speaker of the Lok would be appointed Lok Sabha, Leader Sabha, Leader of Opposition in in consultation of the Opposition in the Lok Sabha, Leader of the with the Chief the Rajya Sabha. Opposition in the Rajya Sabha. Justice of India, the Chairman of the Council of The Second ARC said the States and the Speaker of the Chairperson and members of the House of the People. In1989, the Rashtriya Lokayukta should be bill said the Lokpal shall be selected by a Committee consisting appointed by the President ―after of the Vice President, the Prime consultation with the Chief Justice Minister, the Leader of the of India‖. The 1996 bill suggested Opposition, the Speaker of the Lok a thee member Lokpal – Chairman Sabha and the Chief Justice of and two members – and the India. The 2011 bill, as passed by selection committee to choose the Lok Sabha, also opted for a them was to comprise of the Prime Lokpal and Lokayukta model. It

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said the Lokpal shold be selected seats in the Lokpal for Schuduled by a committee consisting of the Castes, Schedul;ed Tribes, Other Prime Minister, the Speaker of the Backward Classes, minorities and House of the People, the Leader of women. the Opposition in the House of the People, the Chief Justice of India This is a major departure from or a judge of the court nominated earlier bills, which never provided by him, one eminent jurist for non-judicial members or nominated by the president. The reservations of any kind for any selection committee could appoint category of citizens. a search committee to assist it. However, if there is one common As regards thread among all composition of the Further, it provides for the Lok Pal Lokpal, initially first time reservation of fifty legislations, it is governments percent seats in the Lokpal for the one pertaining preferred it to be Schuduled Castes, Schedul;ed to conditions of Tribes, Other Backward three member Classes, minorities and service of the bodies (Chairman women. Chairman and and two members). members of this The 2001 bill also This is a major departure from institution. All bills preferred a three earlier bills, which never have sought to member body - provided for non-judicial ensure that the members or reservations of Chairperson and any kind for any category of Lokpal is a truly two members. citizens. independent However, in the authority and have year 2011, there was a quantrum stipulated that the conditions of jump in the size of the institution. service of the Chairman and The Lokpal and Lokayukta Bill, as Members shall be akin to that of passed by the Lok Sabha on the Chief Justice of India and December 27, 2011 provides for a judges of the Supreme Court Lokpal that comprises of a respectively. Chairman and up to eight members, fifty per cent of whom How Inflation has hit India‘s Anti- shall be judicial members. Corruption Ombudsman

Further, it provides for the first Finally, it must bhe said that time reservation of fifty percent there is an escalation cost to

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fighting corruption as well! When the 2001 bill was moved in Fighting corruption does not come parliament, the cost of Lokpal had cheap. Or so it seems. The cost of risen substantially to Rs 75 lakhs having an ombudsman has risen by way of non-recurring astronomically over the years. The expenditure and a recurring financial memorandum appended expenditure of Rs 1.50 crore. The to the first Lokpal Bill introduced cost of constructing a building for in 1968 said the bill provided for Lokpal was estimated to be Rs appointment of a lokpal and one or 1.50 crore. two persons to be known as lokayoktas. The new institution, it The cost of Lokpal however was estimated, would entail a non- ballooned to hundreds of crores of recurring expenditre of Rs one rupees by the time the bill was lakh and a recurring expenditure introduced in parliament in 2011. of rs nine lakhs a year. The Lokpal The Financial Memorandum Bill introduced in the Lok Sabha attached to the Lokpal and in 1977 estimated that the Lokayukta Bill, 2011 said the institution would entail a non- establishment of the Lok Pal recurring expenditure of Rs 2 would involve a non-recurring lakhs and a recurring expenditure expenditure of one hundred crores of Rs 20 lakhs a year. Further, it of rupees and a recurring said that in case it becomes expenditure of two hundred crores necessary to construct a building of rupees in a financial year. In to house the establishment of case it becomes necessary to thelokpal, additional expenditure construct a building to house the of a non-recurring nature of the establishment of the Lok Pal, order of Rs 25 lakhs will also be ―additional expenditure of a non- involved. The 1989 bill estimated recurring nature of the order four the cost of lokpal as involving a hundred crores of rupees may also non-recurring expenditure of Rs be involved‖. 7.5 lakhs and a recurring expenditure of Rs 35 lakhs per This sum however did not include year. In case it becomes necessary the expenditure involved in to construct a building to house constituting Lokayuktas in every the intitution of the Lokpal, state. Despite the reluctance of the ―additional expenditure of a non- government to estimate the cost of recurring nature of the order of Rs having lokayuktas in every state, 75 lakhs may also be necessary‖. it is certain that these institutions

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will cost the exchequer hundreds House of Parliament. But the life of crores of rupees every year. But, of the bills varies from House to even at this cost, will we House. The Rajya Sabha is a eventually have these institutions permanent House. All members at the federal level and in the have a fixed tenure of six years states? That is the moot question. but members retire in phases with one-third retiring every two years. What Lessons Do We Draw? These vacancies are filled through biennial elections to the Upper What lessons can we draw from House. Therefore, this House is this? Undoubtedly, all the major never subject to dissolution. players in the political field are Hence, a bill introduced in this guilty of dragging their feet in House can have a longer shelf life. regard to the Lok The government Till 2011, the Lok Pal Bill had Pal legislation. can introduce a bill been introduced eight times in But, certainly, the Lok Sabha. On seven in this House, wait some political occasions, it lapsed because of for the opportune leaders and parties the dissolution of the House. moment and push are far more guilty On one occasion it was it through in the than the others. withdrawn by the government. Rajya Sabha and Now the present government Till 2011, the Lok thereafter in the has introduced this bill twice. Pal Bill had been It brought a bill in August, Lok Sabha. So long introduced eight 2011, which it withdrew and as it is pending in times in the Lok introduced a fresh one in the Rajya Sabha, it Sabha. On seven December, 2011. does not die with occasions, it lapsed the dissolution of because of the dissolution of the the Lok Sabha. House. On one occasion it was withdrawn by the government. But, the Lok Sabha is subject to Now the present government has dissolution. A bill introduced in introduced this bill twice. It that House faces sudden death brought a bill in August, 2011, when the House is dissolved or which it withdrew and introduced when a bill passed by it is pending a fresh one in December, 2011. in the Rajya Sabha. We can gauge the intentions of the political class Under the Constitution, the when we realize that the Lok Pal government can introduce every Bill, which lapsed on seven bill, except money bills, in either

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occasions, has never been Among the non-Congress introduced in the Rajya Sabha. governments, the government had the requisite The need for a strong anti- strength in the Lok Sabha to begin corruption institution like the Lok with, but mid-way through its Pal was first mooted in parliament term it fell victim to internal in 1963 when desertions and collapsed and the was the prime minister. The first Lok Pal bill went down with it. bill was introduced in 1968 when The Atal Behari Vajpayee Indira Gandhi was the prime government of 1999-2004 on the minister and passed by the Lok other hand, lasted a full term but Sabha in 1969, but the failed to bring in this law after government did not ensure its holding out much promise. passage in the Rajya Sabha till the dissolution of the Lok Sabha in The ball is now again in the early1971. What happened Congress Party‘s court. The party thereafter is even stranger. Indira seemed to develop cold feet when Gandhi came back with a MPs in the Rajya Sabha moved thumping majority in 1971 and amendments to the Bill passed by quickly re-introduced the Lokpal the lower House. A standard and Lokayuktas Bill. This explanation that the party now government imposed the dreaded offers is that it does not on its own Emergency, used its brute command a majority in parliament parliamentary majority to turn the and is therefore at the mercy of its Constitution on its head and even coalition partners. extended the life of the lok Sabha, but it did not ensure the passage This may be true. But, can we of the Lokpal Bill! forget history? Would we be discussing the Lok Pal bill in 2012 Another prime minister who had if the Congress Party had shown humongous parliamentary the courage to use its brute strength was Rajiv Gandhi. He majority between 1971-77 and had more power in parliament 1980-89 to establish this than Jawaharlal Nehru and Indira institution? Gandhi. Yet, he lacked the courage to establish a Lok Pal and back to content withdrew the bill which he introduced.

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Nepal Monthly Brief

Internal Political Developments

overnment‘s Decision to resume, nor sit for talks with the Legitimise UCPN United Communist Party of Nepal G (Maoist)‘s ―Revolutionary –Maoist (UCPN-M) on peace and Council‖ Creates Obstacles on constitution unless the Cabinet Peace Process and Statute scraped the decision. As soon as Drafting; Oppositions Obstructs the House session started on the House Sessions: The January 17, 2012, NC opposition parties – Nepali Parliamentary Party leader Ram Congress (NC) and Communist Chandra Poudel and CPN-UML Party of Nepal-United Marxist leader Madhav Kumar Nepal and Leninist (CPN-UML) – have objected to the decision dubbing it been obstructing the Legislature- as ‗loot‘. ―To accept the decisions of Parliament meet protesting the Maoist‘s ―people's government‖ government's decision to legalise would be to initiate parallel power land and property transactions in the governance. We cannot made through parallel accept this. We will not let the governments run by the Maoists Maoist capture the power,‖ said during the decade-long armed Nepal. Nepal further accused the conflict. The opposition parties Maoists and the Maoist-led claim that that the decision taken government of working against the by Dr. Baburam Bhattarai led agreements made earlier. government was against the spirit of the peace process and the NC leader Poudel said that the Interim Constitution. Senior Maoists are trying to get away leaders of the two major opposition with their misdeeds by parties, addressing parliament session on January 17, 2012, formally endorsing their robbery raised serious objection to the as legitimate. ―We would not move and demanded the tolerate such a loot. I had told this government take back its decision. earlier as well that the Maoist‘s They also warned that they would misdeeds would not be forgiven neither let the House session just because they are in power now,‖ said Poudel. They had also

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boycotted the meeting of the major sellers were unsatisfied with the parties called by Prime Minister price they received for their pieces Dr. Bhattarai at the Peace of land and houses. During the Ministry on January 17. The NC insurgency, the districts of Rolpa, President Sushil Koirala has made Rukum, Salyan, Jajarkot and it clear that no new agreements Kalikot were well-known Maoist would be made with the UCPN-M strongholds, and the party had if they fail to execute the 7-point apparently proscribed the people deal signed on November 1, 2011. of these districts from having ―Legalising the transactions of the recourse to the land revenue land during the insurgency is just offices whenever they wished to a dream of the Maoist that would sell a piece of land or their house. never be fulfilled. We are not It was made mandatory that all scared of insurgency anymore. If the dealings pertaining to the sale they want to go back into hiding of properties take place under the we would not stop them,‖ media Maoists‘ supervision. For that, the reports Koirala as saying. party used to charge Rs 500-700 per transaction. In fact, the protest comes amid the government's plan to issue a 35- In the meantime, the Supreme day notice calling such property Court on January 19, 2012 has owners to register the land stayed the government decision to transactions. Earlier this month, provide legitimacy to the the Cabinet had decided to properties purchased, sold, and distribute land ownership distributed by ―Revolutionary certificates for plots purchased, Council‖ of the UCPN-M during sold and transferred by the the decade-long conflict. A Single "Revolutionary Council" through Bench of Chief Justice Khil Raj the Land Revenue Office. It is said Regmi has issued the order to this that the UCPN-M‘s Revolutionary effect. Before that on January 17, Council brokered thousands of a group of lawyers belonging to land and property deals in the Democratic Lawyers Association country during the insurgency. had moved the apex court against According to a report, more than the Cabinet decision. The court 12,000 such deals were made only has, in its order, stated that the in five mid-western districts, and interim order is issued until many of these transactions took January 25, 2012. The Bench also place under duress, wherein the decided to send the case to the full

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Bench of the apex court citing the Samuykta Loktantrik Madhesi gravity of the issue. Morcha (SLMM) and the UCPN- M, Gupta claimed that the pact Government Under Pressure from has played a crucial role in giving Madhesi Parties, including the pace to the stalled peace process Coalition Partners; Gupta and constitution writing process. Threatens to Quit the He added his party is ready for Government: Madhesi Janadhikar any kind of struggle to Forum-Nepal (MJF-N), which had institutionalise the achievement of supported the Bhattarai led Madhesis‘ agitation. government from outside, has warned that if the government Strikes against the Price does not promulgate the Hike: Once the Nepal Oil Constitution within the allotted Corporation had revised fuel time, or promulgates a prices on January 18, 2012, Constitution against the thirteen students union affiliated sentiments of the Madhes, then to various political parties have the Madhesis would write a been protesting against the Constitution on their own. government decision to hike the Addressing a program organised prices of petroleum products. The in Siraha, Chairman Upendra students union decided to Yadav further said that they have intensify the agitation accusing already planned for protests and the government of turning deaf demonstrations, as there is no way ear to the 24-hour ultimatum that the current government is given to withdraw the price hike. going to promulgate the As per the new price, diesel and Constitution on time. kerosene will now cost Rs. 85 per litre, up from Rs. 76. The price of In the meantime, Minister for petrol has been hiked to Rs. 115 Information and Communications per litre from Rs. 105 earlier. and Chairman of Madhesi Similarly, the price of cooking gas Janadhikar Forum-Ganatantrik has been increased to Rs. 1,500 (MJF-G), Jaya Prakash Gupta per cylinder from the Rs. 1,325 said that that there is no point in earlier. staying in the government if the four-point pact is not Foreign Relations implemented. Defending the four- point pact signed between Relations with India

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Deputy Prime Minister Gachhadar Ghale and National Investigation Visits India: Deputy Prime Department chief Moti Gurung, Minister and Minister for Home met Indian Home Minister P Affairs Bijaya Kumar Gachhadar Chidambaram, Foreign Minister arrived India on January 17, 2012 SM Krishna and Defence Minister for a four-day official visit. It is AK Antony. Home Secretary said that it is Gachhadar's first Sushil Jung Rana and AIG of the visit to New Delhi after assuming Armed Police Force Durju Rai had the office of Home Minister on joined Gachhadar in Delhi who August 29, 2011. It is reported had reached New Delhi on that Deputy Prime Minister January 15, 2012 for security Gachhadar met Indian Prime talks. Minister Manamohan Singh on January 18, 2012. It is also In the meantime, Nepal and India reported that Indian Prime have discussed a wide range of Minister Singh expressed his bilateral security concerns in an interest about the ongoing peace effort to strengthen mutual process and statute drafting cooperation on addressing the process during the meet with the challenges, during a high-level Deputy Prime Minister dialogue that began here on Gachhadar. ―He has expressed January 16, 2012. It is said that concern about the situation of this is the home secretary-level democracy, and if or not the UCPN bilateral talks which are being (Maoist) was committed to the held after a gap of more than two peace process,‖ Deputy Prime years. At the meeting discussions Minister Gachhadar said. were held on more than a dozen According to the sources, the issues ranging from counterfeit meeting also dwelt upon the currency to further facilitating recent visit of Chinese Premier information exchange between Wen Jiabao, border security and authorities of the two countries. the possible use of Nepali land According to reports, fake Indian against India. currency was the major concern expressed by the Indian side. Also, Deputy Prime Minster Indian officials showed their Gachchhadar, who was concerns on the issue of illegal accompanied by Nepal Police Chief funding channelised to the Rabindra Pratap Shah, Nepal Madrassas in Nepal, especially Army‘s General Daman those in the bordering districts.

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Relations with China not a long one, it was fruitful,‖. He also described the visit as holding Chinese Ambassador Houlan great significance to Nepal-China Praises Nepal relations. Government: Organising a reception in Kathmandu on It is said that this is the first January 18, 2012, Chinese official comment on the visit made Ambassador to Nepal Yang by the Chinese side. Before that, Houlan has appreciated Nepal there was a joint statement issued government‘s hosting of Chinese at the conclusion of Wen‘s visit. Premier Wen Jiabao during his Wen was in Kathmandu for official visit. Yang said joint efforts around four hours on January 14, from both the sides made the visit 2012, and the visit was the first a complete success. ―The Chinese official visit by a Chinese Premier premier and the Chinese people to Nepal in a decade. were really moved by these efforts,‖ Yang said, adding that both the Nepali and the Chinese back to content sides ―now agree that the visit was a milestone in our bilateral relations...Although the visit was

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Towards A Stable Afghanistan: The Way Forward

- (A report of Joint Working Group of Vivekananda International Foundation and RUSI, the UK)

he experts from the two result of the of think tanks met in New former President Rabbani. T Delhi and London during The space for a negotiated October and November 2011 to settlement has narrowed. A deliberate on peace and stability dominant role for the in Afghanistan. Both the countries Taliban in any future have stakes in the emerging dispensation in Kabul is situation in Afghanistan and have clearly not acceptable to the contributed to peace and stability majority of Afghans or the in Afghanistan in many ways. The international community. report also took into account the Reconciliation must lead, at opinions of a wide array of a minimum, to the following strategic analysts, many three outcomes: the government officials, and disarmament of all terrorist academics. groups; breaking off of all A summary of recommendations of links with other terrorist the report is given below. groups and their sponsors; Summary of Recommendations acceptance of the 1. An independent, democratic, Constitution of Afghanistan. pluralistic and viable Afghanistan, that does not 3. Any arrangement that provide shelter to any results from the process of terrorist group remains the reconciliation must be key objective shared by India respected not only by the and the UK. Afghan parties, but also by Afghanistan‘s immediate 2. The prospects for neighbours – in particular reconciliation with the Pakistan. The international Taliban leadership do not community must ask look good, particularly as a Pakistan to become part of

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the solution to the Afghan Afghanistan, which problem. envisages, among other things, ‗training, equipping, and capacity building programmes for the Afghan 4. We recommend the National Security Forces‘. establishment of an We believe that this international mechanism to agreement fits well with monitor external overall policy of the interference or sponsorship international coalition in of terrorism by any country, Afghanistan and should be which will have the power to implemented in close co- sanction violations of this ordination with other commitment. bilateral and multilateral assistance programmes, 5. India and the UK share the which, in turn, should be objective of supporting the implemented in co- Afghan state, both militarily ordination and consultation and economically, well with India. We urge the beyond the 2014 deadline. Indian Government to at We urge both governments to least maintain the current devote significant resources levels of annual development towards this end. With this assistance to Afghanistan. in mind, India and the UK We also welcome India‘s should urge the US and commitment to increase the Afghanistan to conclude as scale of its assistance in speedily as possible a Status providing training and of Forces Maintenance mentoring to the ANA, ANP Agreement for the period and other security forces. We after 2014. We recognise that recommend that India our two countries also have should also be willing to responsibility to support the deploy training personnel efforts towards post-2014 within Afghanistan, in stabilisation. addition to providing these facilities in India itself. 7. We welcome the UK‘s stated

willingness to continue its 6. We welcome India‘s Strategic substantial contribution to Partnership Agreement with

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the security and oversight and co-ordination development of Afghanistan of aid efforts, in consultation after it withdraws its with the Afghan remaining combat forces in Government, is a high 2014. We recommend that priority in this area; we the UK should make a long- therefore believe that both term commitment of India and the UK should development funds to support the efforts of the UN Afghanistan, with a and its agencies to particular focus on ensuring strengthen their roles in this that the Government of regard. The aid absorption Afghanistan is able to fund capacities of the Afghan core administrative and Government will need to be development activities. We enhanced as part of this strongly support the UK‘s effort. commitment to build and support a new officer training academy for Afghanistan. We believe the 9. The ultimate shape and Indian Army could make a composition of the ANA will valuable contribution to this require careful consideration. effort and recommend that While there is already some our two countries explore recognition of the need for a this option further. greater balance between light infantry and other 8. The UK and India should combat arms (mechanised, take a proactive role in the artillery and engineers) international effort for a further action to address this more coherent aid-sharing issue will be needed, always arrangement among national bearing in mind the need for donors. It is important that any force structure to be countries pledging financial affordable. assistance to Afghanistan undertake tasks that 10. Developing a more contribute to a coherent effective police and justice effort and honour their sector – including courts, commitments. A well-defined prosecutors and detention international structure for facilities – will be a key

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priority for Afghanistan, and 13. There is a requirement the UK and India should to further develop NATO‘s consider whether they can Training Mission in collaborate more closely in Afghanistan (NTM-A) and providing assistance in this the Combined Security area. Command – Afghanistan (CSTC-A), led by NATO and 11. Both India and the UK the US respectively. While should work together in retaining their character and order to assist the Afghan roles, the US and NATO legislature and executive to members should consider continue the process of whether the character of security sector reform, these bodies should be helping to ensure that the further developed in order to security sector is both incorporate training effective and accountable to contributions from non- democratic authorities. NATO states such as India. Such a new body might take 12. It is imperative that the form of an International the international community Military/Security Assistance agree to a ten-year plan for Commission for Afghanistan. funding the ANA in order to ensure predictability of 14. There is a growing and financing and the urgent requirement for the achievement of the right international community to priorities. We urge India to develop alternative supply consider making a long-term and logisitics routes for financial commitment for the ISAF. The Northern development of the post-2014 Distribution Network, which ANSF. The UK should also now accounts for some 40 per make a substantial and cent of the supplies, should predictable contribution to be further developed and the post-2014 ANSF costs. utilised. The Indian Such commitments would be members of the working particularly valuable if India group felt that those ISAF and the UK were to take a member-states that are able joint initiative in this regard. to do so should also explore the possible use of Iranian

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territory for this purpose, as state of relations between it provides a good Tehran and key members of alternative. However, the the international community members of the British working group were doubtful that Iran‘s co-operation was back to content either feasible or desirable at this stage, given the current

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Vimarsha: India-Slowing Down an Under- Heated Economy

equity market, and a sharp fall r. Bibek Debroy, an in the industrial output were D eminent economist and telltale signs of distress in the member of VIF‘s Indian economy. Moreover, (Vivekananda International ongoing economic crisis in Foundation) Executive Council, Europe was unlikely to leave delivered a perceptive talk, titled India totally unscathed and this ‗India-Slowing Down an Under necessitated Heated Economy‘ course correction on December measures in the 30th, 2011 as country. The part of the Director however Foundation‘s reposed his faith Vimarsha series in strong political of lectures. An and economic august gathering, fundamentals of comprising the country, former civil and hoping that India military officials, will eventually scholars and emerge much diplomats stronger. He attended. further opined that the title of Dr. Debroy‘s talk exuded both Mr. Ajit Doval, Director VIF, pessimism as well optimism. introduced the speaker and the While the slowing down of subject. His penetrating remarks India‘s economy was naturally a set the tone for the talk and the matter of serious concern, an ensuing discussion. He pondered under-heated economy meant about the success of India‘s India still had a great potential growth story in the context of to grow. potential bottlenecks. Rising inflation, devaluation of the Dr. Bibek Debroy began the talk Indian Rupee, volatility in the in a somewhat reflective mood,

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likening the present state of growth rate of 9 percent. While India‘s economy to the prevailing expectations about India damp and foggy weather. reaching a higher growth Continuing in the same vein, he trajectory still persist in some said that there was no quarters, especially the perceptible silver lining in the government, the fact remains clouds, though the impact of that the country is settling down global developments would be to a 6.5 percent annual growth relatively limited for India. rate for the next couple of years. Presenting his diagnosis for the Dr. Debroy reminded the ills which have afflicted India‘s audience that India had achieved economy over the past few years, consistently an annual growth Dr. Debroy indicated that the rate of about 9 percent until a problem had very little to do few years ago, and there was with what was happening even speculation that it could globally, and more to do with reach the two digit growth rate what was not happening trajectory. Dr. Debroy reminded internally. To that extent, he the audience that GDP is not said that economic recession was just about numbers. He wryly being used by the UPA observed that at a 10 percent government as a red-herring to growth rate India was creating deflect the people‘s attention 15 million new jobs each year, a from the real issues. 6.5 percent growth rate would result in the creation of only 10 There is growing sense of million jobs annually. Job losses skepticism, especially in other of such magnitude would countries, about the future inevitably have a major negative prospects of India‘s economy. impact on the country. The dream that one saw with BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and In a perceptive analysis, Dr. China) a few years ago is almost Debroy, drawing attention to the over, in so far as India is RBI‘s assessment that the concerned. The situation is really external sector was today pretty dismal for India, contributing about 3% of India‘s evidenced by the fact that the GDP, noted that this implied GDP growth rate is currently that the country‘s present pegged at 6.9 percent which is growth rate of about 7% much lower than the expected translated into a 4% growth rate

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which had prevailed in the executive decisions. For instance, period prior to the liberalization environment and forest when the contribution of trade to clearances critical for GDP was negligible. development of infrastructure had become avenues for rent Criticizing the government for seeking and bribery. failing to enact the second wave Furthermore, ‗sanctity of of reforms, Dr. Debroy said that contract‘ so necessary for PPP, usually associated with meaningful business activities Purchasing Power Parity, was had been abandoned as there being viewed increasingly in was no finality to many of these terms of Permanent Policy contracts. Paralysis! Government sought to account for its failure to push Dr. Debroy went on to suggest through important reform that regrettably some of the legislation by hiding behind the measures undertaken by the smokescreen of coalition politics. government, notably the This paralysis had driven the MGNREGS (Mahatma Gandhi Indian corporate sector which National Rural Employment was sitting on huge cash Guarantee Schemes) and the reserves to invest not in India Land Acquisition Bill were but abroad. Thus in 2010-2011 having an extremely deleterious Indians invested as much as $44 effect on the economy. The latter billion abroad as against only would kill the land market and $18 billion in the previous year. mining activities in the country. The blame for a sharp increase Dr. Debroy pointed out the in labour prices in recent times recent apparent decline in could be squarely put on the inflation was not due to MGNREGS. The scheme was not government policies but was leading to any productive simply a factor of the current activities. It was hard to believe inflation rate being measured that a government which had so against the year ago high much economic expertise inflation rates. available to it simply failed to anticipate the effect MGNREGS He mentioned that apart from would have on food price the government‘s legislative inflation. It was amazing that inactivity the sorry state of the the government despite sitting economy was also due to its

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on a wealth of economic Dr. Debroy‘s stimulating expertise simply had no idea as presentation elicited a volley of to what was required to kick- questions from the audience. A start the economy. The few of those questions related to government had chosen to ignore the impact of Right to the recommendations of various Information Act on decision- Administrative Reform making, the role of judiciary in Commissions which would made environment and forest possible effective delivery of clearances, the proposed land services and allowed important acquisition bill, the legislation relating to pension interventionist role of the reform, FDI in retail etc to Reserve Bank of India in gather dust – legislation which stemming further depreciation of could have unshackled the the Indian rupee, the outward economy. flow of Indian capital etc. The speaker sought to clarify that The policies of the government more often than not the judiciary appeared to be increasingly led intervenes because of bad by electoral politics rather than legislation. To a pointed question economic prudence. While the whether the outward FDI should economic situation of India today be seen as a positive was reminiscent of the late development, he replied that sixties or the early seventies, normally he would not be especially in terms of bothered whether capital flowed government intervention, it was in or out, but if the outflow of worrying that hardly anyone, capital suddenly shoots up from including from the economic USD 18 billion to USD 44 billion fraternity, was contesting the the next year, it should be seen economic policies of the UPA as a worrying trend. He further government. What India should suggested that Indian capital be aspiring for was not 9 percent was moving out not because of but 12 percent economic growth ‗pull‘ factor but because of ‗push‘ rate. For a country like India factor. with such huge untapped potential, it could easily be Report Prepared by Mr. Sanjay Kumar dubbed an under-heated economy. back to content

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Round Table Discussion on 'Vision India 2025 - Issues of Governance'

n Jan 12, 2012, the The discussion, which broadly Vivekananda International covered the entire gamut of O Foundation (VIF) held a governance in India from a round table discussion on the futuristic perspective, was kicked issues of governance. The off by Mr CD Sahay, former discussion was held against the Secretary R&AW and backdrop of an ongoing VIF Distinguished project, Vision Fellow at the India 2025. A VIF. He panel of highlighted eminent the broad experts, objectives including Mr. behind the Vijay Kapoor, foundation former undertaking a Lieutenant project of this Governor nature. It was Delhi, Mr. Ajit succinctly Doval Director highlighted VIF, through Ambassador PP Shukla Joint Director VIF, Ambassador Satish Chandra, the discussion Mr. CD Sahay, Mr. Trinath that while there is an overall need Mishra, among others, discussed a for reforms in the social, political, draft paper which was authored by Dr. M.N. Buch, Padmabhusan and economic, and defence sectors, a former civil servant. The governance alone remains the discussion was moderated by Mr. keystone, which can ensure that Vijay Kapoor. reforms succeed in all other sectors.

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It was brought out during the discussion also hovered around the discussion that governance in weakened positions of Prime India suffers from a whole range of Ministers and Chief Ministers in systemic problems. The Director an era of coalition politics, leading observed that over the past sixty India being increasingly perceived years India has unmistakably as a soft state. In this context, the moved away from system-based Westminster model of democracy governance to personality-based and the weaknesses in the governance. Looking over the Constitutions were examined. horizon, he said that growing While a major thrust of the interplay between democracy and discussion was on electoral demography in India would reforms in India, the panelists further strain the issue of were almost unanimous that governance. He said that government interventions in the governance suffered from three execution of policies should be sets of challenges: first, reduced to the barest minimum. multiplication of the problem of governance; second, serious There was considerable back and decline in the quality of people forth on the issue of whether who govern, and finally, systems or individuals are the increasing political interference in determinants of whether the governance. He laid emphasis on governance is good, bad or the fact that there is urgent need indifferent. The general conclusion to prevent the system from was that the system could be decaying any further. devised in such a way as to incentivise individuals to take the The discussants flagged their correct decisions in the public concerns about decision-making interest. It was largely agreed that processes being unduly affected by decision-making process in India unhealthy political influences. It is should be made IT-enabled, so unfortunate that legally that the process moves faster and empowered people are either in a more transparent manner. hesitant to take decisions or they Another significant suggestion put look over their shoulders while forth by one of the panelists taking crucial decisions. There related to the need for educating was general consensus across the the senior management level table that civil services in India employees by holding regular are in crying need for reform. The workshops, making them aware of

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various legal provisions in the chapter on Governance should conduct of businesses. It was also resonate with recommendations felt that collective education of made in the other chapters of the secretaries among various ‗India Vision 2025‘ document. government departments would go a long way in inter-weaving the ministries. Report Prepared by Mr. Sanjay Kumar

The panelists made a number of key suggestions towards better governance which could find place in the final paper. However, it was back to content largely agreed upon that recommendation made in the

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