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Issues & Options February - 2012 Issue: I No: II US Security Posture Political Te mperature of Pakistan Challenges for Inte rnal Security India Losing Past Historical Memory and many more …. Published By : Vivekananda International Foundation 3, San Martin Marg, Chanakyapuri, New Delhi – 110021, [email protected], www.vifindia.org Contents Articles Modernising the Motivational Context of The Indian Armed Forces India 2021:- Hazarding Guesses- Guessing 58 Hazards - Maj. Gen (Dr.) G D Bakshi 3 - Gopal Krishna Gandhi Lok Pal Saga 66 America’s Defence Priorities in 21st - A Surya Prakash Century: Obama’s New Strategic 12 Guidelines Briefs - Satish Chandra 80 Nepal Monthly Brief Internal Security – Need for Course Correction 22 - Ajit Doval Events Pakistan’s Political Crisis & Civil Military Summary of Report of Joint Working Group - Towards Stability in Relations 36 85 Afghanistan : The Way Forward - Sushant Sareen China’s P lans for Capturing the High Vimarsha: India- Slowing Down and Ground in Space 45 Under Heated Economy - Dr. Bibek 90 Debroy - Brig. Vinod Anand Encircling the Light of Asia: The Lumbini Round Table Discussion on ‘Vision 94 Project 51 India 2025- Issues of Governance VIVEK: Issues & Options February – 2012 Issue: I No: II 2 - Anirban Ganguly India 2021: - Hazarding Guesses - Guessing Hazards - Gopal Krishna Gandhi he hazards that India is Kashmir on 18 September 2011. likely to face over the There occurred a most curious T next ten years may be earthquake, epicentered in the divided broadly into hazards posed Kanchenjungha region of Sikkim, by forces beyond our control and which shook the whole of the Indo- those posed by situations caused Gangetic Plain, with tremors felt by human action, human in Assam going right through to decisions, and public policy. Delhi and beyond. This earthquake has earned the name Seismic hazards of the ‗2011 Himalayan Seismic and atmospheric Earthquake September 2011 was disturbances are increasing in an earthquake month. There were frequency. Suffice to say the a total of 15 earthquakes of Himalaya from Kashmir to Assam significance in India and its have been jolted over the last neighbourhood, as well as, all over decade repeatedly. The brutal one the world in the chain of that shook Kashmir on 8 October, September 2011 earthquake 2005 left 79000 officially dead in Earthquakes do not come on POK and 1500 in Jammu & ceremonial state visits. They come, *Gopal Krishna Gandhi - Former Governor of West Bengal VIVEK: Issues & Options February – 2012 Issue: I No: II 3 kill and leave without trace. They There is indifference in society. are rather like terrorists. But in Only a few know as to how many reality it is not the earthquakes our nuclear reactors are located or that kill, it is buildings collapsing will come up in Zone 4 and 5. in the earthquakes which kill. Narora falls within zone 4 which That‘s why, today earthquakes are houses a nuclear reactor. There is more hazardous than they were lack of urgency in seismic some hundred years ago when preparedness in earthquake- buildings were tsunami policy. If made of less heavy ―aam aadmi‘s‖ There is indifference in society. materials and Only a few know as to how indifference can be fewer people lived many our nuclear reactors are assigned to habits located or will come up in Zone in and around 4 and 5. Narora falls within of mind, should them. zone 4 which houses a nuclear those concerned reactor. There is lack of with augmenting What is a seismic urgency in seismic preparedness in earthquake- our seismic zone? Earthquake tsunami policy. preparedness not zoning divides address that indifference? Should India into 4 seismic zones (zone 2, they not be told in clear terms that 3, 4 and 5) with Zone 5 held to non-scientists can understand, have the highest level of seismicity that are not self explaining but and Zone 2 with the lowest. frank and consultative, as to how Kashmir, Punjab, the western and and why they need not worry Central Himalayan region, the about our reactors being located North- east Indian region and the where earthquakes and tsunami Rann of Katch fall in this zone. are expected to occur. There is, VIVEK: Issues & Options February – 2012 Issue: I No: II 4 after all, such a thing as error. regular tides rise even higher by And that can include errors of another furious Aila, the judgment in the calculation of risk Sunderban will be at huge risk factor. Should they not be told how notwithstanding the life saving and why we need not be auxious mangroves there. about the safety of our reactors? Nothing can be done in this space And, if there is cause for anxiety, and time to check sea level rise or if not alarm, should the nation not to stop cyclone furies in their be taken into confidence about tracks. So, another Aila, say, two, those areas of anxiety? five or ten times stronger than the Erratic winds previous one, the human population of both the Indian and The erratic wind is becoming Bangladeshi Sunderban could regular, the cycle is becoming well gravitate towards the erratic, whether on account of relatively higher Kolkata, as our climate change or due to other country‘s most desperate climate causes. Cyclones, tornados and refugees. Imagine, what the huge typhoons have become frequent population influx would entail in a visitors. Some years ago, the Mahanagar already past its names of ‗Nargis‘, ‗Katrina‘ and endurance levels in terms of ‗Aila‘ would have invoked only population infrastructure balance. feminine proper nouns, not so The Maladives are thought of as a today. In the coming decade, small country. They are highly global warming will elevate mean concerned about submersion. India sea level to dangerous levels and when a swollen sea, lifted by VIVEK: Issues & Options February – 2012 Issue: I No: II 5 is a big country. Is India thinking is to be welcomed. But this step about it all? needs to be accompanied by certain other steps like an Another area in West Bengal, independent, transparent safety adjoining the Sunderban, which is audit of our nuclear facilities and merely 30 metres above sea level, these steps should be a part of a is Haripur in Medinipur district. It major re-assessment of is the proposed site of a proposed engineering and nuclear reactor. architectural Those interested Nothing can be done in this styles, and re- may try to find out space and time to check sea level rise or to stop cyclone faishning of the elevations of furies in their tracks. So, construction the reactor another Aila, say, two, five or ten times stronger than the regulations in basements in previous one, the human seismic zones with Fukushima and population of both the Indian and Bangladeshi Sunderban a view to long time those proposed for could well gravitate towards the relatively higher Kolkata, learning from Haripur. as our country‘s most Fukushima. desperate climate refugees. The Prime Minister‘s announcement that the Atomic Bio- terror and Nano- terror Energy Regulatory Board is to be Risks of nuclear error and terror a more autonomous and are conspicuous. Let us not be independent body to boost unaware of these risks. Use of the accountability and transparency in nerve gas in a Tokyo subway in the functioning of the country‘s 1990s and of the anthrax in 2001 nuclear power plant is timely and VIVEK: Issues & Options February – 2012 Issue: I No: II 6 are well known. The horrors of Pandemics chemical or germ- warfare Blame it on the birds, on pigs or unleashed by non-state players other creations, the fact remains from laboratories, held hostage by that zoonotic diseases, that is them is not a science fiction infective diseases, carried into scenario. It is for real. If nature humans, sometimes through does not have a threshold, then vectors, from animals, can be used terror, especially when twinned to by infernal minds to carry them death inventing creativeness, is into selected human hosts. In an also beyond thresholds. And one early instance of biological warfare cannot believe that politico- armies of the 14th century were technological systems that can recorded catapulting plague- purloin nuclear secrets are not diseased corposes over the walls of incapable of stealing the far enemy towns in order to spread easier-to-transfer technical know the pestilence. how about biological warfare. As regards testing, nuclear weapons Near modern times, plague was capability has to undergo trial- used during the second Sino- testing on the ground, or under it. Japanese war by the imperial In either case, not an easy Japanese army and in 1940, the proposition, one that can be imperial Japanese Army Air hidden from the world. Bio- service bombed Ningbo with chemical devices can be tested plague-carrying fleas. With the clandestinely. international conventions now in place, we can expect that scenario to belong to past, but what of non- VIVEK: Issues & Options February – 2012 Issue: I No: II 7 state players? But terror apart, with the mucous membrances. The even otherwise, the world is filth that is growing in cities is becoming vulnerable to zoonotic making conditions ripe for pandemics as never before. If some epidemic including plague. common modern diseases, The nightmare of Urbania villages including epidemic diseases, are becoming towns, towns are started out as zoonotic diseases becoming cities, cities are and the bubonic plague, measles, becoming metropolises, smallpox, influenza, HIV, and metropolises are diphtheria came to trying to be second us this way, the The nightmare of Urbania villages are becoming towns, Kuala Lumpur if common cold and towns are becoming cities, not third grade tuberculosis, it is cities are becoming metropolises, metropolises are Singapore without said, may also have trying to be second Kuala requisite funds or started out in other Lumpur if not third grade Singapore without requisite the requistite species.